Speaker 1: Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Speaker 1: Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty Armstrong and
Speaker 1: Gatty and he Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 2: We've heard from the foreign ministries of many of the
Speaker 2: Gulf states who have come out and condemned Iran for
Speaker 2: targeting Kuwaiti airspace, the US airbases that are on the
Speaker 2: ground in Kuwait, causing Kuwaiti sirens to blare here overnight,
Speaker 2: as well as the interceptors to be put in motion
Speaker 2: in order to neutralize that threat.
Speaker 1: Oh, the Arab states have condemned Iran.
Speaker 3: I bet they're feeling the rough side of the tongue
Speaker 3: of the leaders who.
Speaker 1: Have condemned what they've done.
Speaker 3: So first we'll update you on what happened overnight since
Speaker 3: last you checked in on the war with Ran, there
Speaker 3: was quite a bit and then where we are now
Speaker 3: at the sanctions, which is pretty darned interesting.
Speaker 1: Here's tre Yanksta Fox.
Speaker 4: A significant development overnight as Iran launched drones toward a
Speaker 4: commercial vessel attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaker 4: Sentcom says at least five one way attack drones were
Speaker 4: launched toward the vessel and intercepted. We know that a
Speaker 4: strike was also conducted against a control station near the
Speaker 4: city of Bundar Abbas that was about to launch a
Speaker 4: six drone. In response to the Iranians launched a drone
Speaker 4: and ballistic missile attack against Kuwait, targeting a US based there.
Speaker 4: According to Iran's IRGC, the Kuwaitis confirmed an attack on
Speaker 4: their territory that triggered sirens and alerts. Just two hours ago,
Speaker 4: the Israelis conducted a targeted assassination against the Lebanese capital
Speaker 4: of Beirut, taking out a top hesbal of missile commander
Speaker 4: there Bill, thank.
Speaker 1: You, Trey, Trey, yinks Tel Aviv.
Speaker 3: This is all during the ceasefire, which a lot of
Speaker 3: ceasefires through history have had a fair amount.
Speaker 1: Of back and forth.
Speaker 3: As long as both sides are saying the ceasefire still holds,
Speaker 3: I guess you still have a ceasefire. Ceasefire is over
Speaker 3: when one or more side says that's it.
Speaker 5: I need somebody to explain to me how the current
Speaker 5: somewhat c c ceasefire is a better strategy than continuing
Speaker 5: to pound Iran.
Speaker 1: I think go ahead.
Speaker 3: I think that Trump just doesn't want to engage in
Speaker 3: full out war.
Speaker 1: Whatever.
Speaker 5: Gulf States are probably saying, hey, hey, hey, can we
Speaker 5: just let's give this a real good try before we
Speaker 5: get the violence going again, because I know it was
Speaker 5: absolutely devastating to the UAE. Some of those giant, gleaming
Speaker 5: cities with the highest skyscrapers in the world and the
Speaker 5: magnificent architecture and the resorts that are artificial, this, that,
Speaker 5: and the other, they're empty right now. So I think
Speaker 5: our allies in the region are probably desperate to not
Speaker 5: have the you know, the the real hostilities start again.
Speaker 3: Hoping Iran caves because of the financial situation. To that
Speaker 3: In the New York Times New York Times Today, Iranian
Speaker 3: state television reported on Wednesday that had obtained an initial
Speaker 3: unofficial framework for an agreement. So this is a weird
Speaker 3: thing that's going on right now. We'll say we have
Speaker 3: an agreement, and we'll lay out what the stuff is
Speaker 3: that's beneficial to us, and then Iran will say, we
Speaker 3: don't agree to that. And now Iran is announcing we
Speaker 3: have an agreement, and they lay out the stuff that's
Speaker 3: beneficial to them, and we say we don't agree to that.
Speaker 1: Back to the New York Times.
Speaker 3: The White House roundly dismissed the report, calling it a
Speaker 3: complete fabrication, and mister Trump said several of the terms
Speaker 3: it outlined would be unacceptable. So Iran just did the
Speaker 3: same thing basically that we did.
Speaker 1: Over the weekend.
Speaker 3: Sounds to me like where you announced there's a deal
Speaker 3: and the other side hasn't agreed to it. I don't
Speaker 3: know if both sides are trying to pull off the
Speaker 3: presumptive clothes, or like we're talking to people who agree
Speaker 3: to stuff but they aren't the reals.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 5: History will tell, I guess. And there's so much happening
Speaker 5: behind the scenes that I know.
Speaker 1: I'm not privy too. And here maybe for the forever,
Speaker 1: under the now.
Speaker 3: Under the framework released by Iran, Iran would reopen the
Speaker 3: Strait of horr Moves to commercial ships, but it would
Speaker 3: continue to control the strait in cooperation with Oman, and
Speaker 3: she would not charge tolls.
Speaker 1: It would just.
Speaker 5: Charge huge fees for navigation assistance.
Speaker 1: Please yeah.
Speaker 3: In return, the United States would lift its naval blockade
Speaker 3: on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. So we leave
Speaker 3: and you get to control the strait. Is not a deal.
Speaker 1: We're going to agree to, I would assume.
Speaker 3: And the report that Iran put out saying we have
Speaker 3: a deal made no mention of the most contentious issues,
Speaker 3: like the future of their nuclear program or the stockpile
Speaker 3: of their enriched uranium.
Speaker 1: So other than that, we're very close.
Speaker 3: The Wall Street Journal version Iran's hardline rulers aren't willing
Speaker 3: to conced much to secure a deal.
Speaker 1: They're eager to deter future.
Speaker 3: Attacks, and they want the sanctions to end, but they
Speaker 3: aren't willing to give on a whole bunch of different stuff.
Speaker 3: But the government is also very eager to secure financial
Speaker 3: relief because the blockade is deepening the economic crisis. One
Speaker 3: Iranian official said the economy had held up earlier in
Speaker 3: the war, but that has changed now after Washington began
Speaker 3: stopping vessels from entering and leaving Iranian terminals. The amount
Speaker 3: of money they're getting dropped off so much that they're in.
Speaker 1: Really bad shape.
Speaker 3: And one Iranian officials said nationalism can only work for
Speaker 3: so long, referring to Iranian's reasons to support the regime's
Speaker 3: war effort. That's the people that get in the streets
Speaker 3: and chant death to America. At some point they're gonna say,
Speaker 3: according to this Iranian, they're gonna say.
Speaker 1: All right, that's enough.
Speaker 3: We ain't got no food, we ain't got no fuel,
Speaker 3: we ain't got no electricity. And to that point, the
Speaker 3: sanctions associated press, the Trump administration today or yesterday placed
Speaker 3: additional sanctions on Iran. I'll never understand this with sanctions.
Speaker 3: I've wondered about it my whole life. Some country or
Speaker 3: person does something horrible to us, and we put sanctions
Speaker 3: on them, and then something else happens, and then they
Speaker 3: announce additional sanctions, and I always think.
Speaker 1: How bad does it gotta get? Why if these if
Speaker 1: there are more sanctions available.
Speaker 3: Before yesterday, why weren't we doing them already ready?
Speaker 1: Exactly? Yeah? Yeah, Why we never understood that. And I've
Speaker 1: never had it explain to me.
Speaker 3: Why aren't we doing the absolute maximum, to the absolute
Speaker 3: limit of sanctions that we have.
Speaker 1: Power over already?
Speaker 2: What is it?
Speaker 5: There are a couple of reasons you wouldn't want to
Speaker 5: do that, because some of them involve kind of abusing
Speaker 5: your status as the world financial clearinghouse. And you don't
Speaker 5: want to get a rep for doing that too much,
Speaker 5: or you or be that anymore. Well, yeah, but there's
Speaker 5: a long history of US continuing to, you know, not
Speaker 5: freeze assets and seize things. Anyway, I don't want to
Speaker 5: get into those weeds, but I see your point generally.
Speaker 5: I thought it was interesting that the what's this guy's
Speaker 5: the speaker the parliament, Iranian president, whatever the hell that means.
Speaker 5: They're talking about how prices of like your staple foods, rice, meat, bread,
Speaker 5: cheese have skyrocketed in recent weeks, and Iranian households are
Speaker 5: super pressured, blah blah blah, and the government's afraid of
Speaker 5: stability falling in part again, and the President Massud Pazekian
Speaker 5: and other pragment has realized the slide will have to
Speaker 5: be stemmed if they're to maintain stability meeting. The worsening
Speaker 5: economic picture is becoming a key pressure point in the
Speaker 5: negotiations with Washington. Here's what he said to the Tehran
Speaker 5: Chamber of Commerce Wednesday. I'm sure their meetings are cheery
Speaker 5: these days, he said. The main war is in the
Speaker 5: economic field. If you failed, the country fails.
Speaker 1: The Tehran Chamber of Commerce, yeah, they're like, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: there won't be lunch this week, and in fact, there
Speaker 1: won't be any water or.
Speaker 5: Electricity at the big meeting, So come as yard, bring
Speaker 5: a flashlight and a bottled water.
Speaker 1: So the question is, let me give you Mark Halprin's.
Speaker 3: Assessment of all those articles from the New York Times,
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: Excellent.
Speaker 3: We all need to stop asking if there's going to
Speaker 3: be a US Iran agreement that holds not under the
Speaker 3: current trajectory, there can be no sustainable deal with Tehran.
Speaker 3: So the question is what does Donald Trump plan to
Speaker 3: do to change the trajectory. Maybe Scott Bessant, Treasury Secretary,
Speaker 3: will make that clear at the White House briefing today,
Speaker 3: But if the President won't go back to full scale war,
Speaker 3: maybe maybe the economic pressure is still the answer. There's
Speaker 3: got to be a limit to how long Iran can
Speaker 3: put up with this. They're just hoping that that they
Speaker 3: can hold out longer than Trump will is willing to
Speaker 3: hold out. With the high gas prices in the midterms,
Speaker 3: and like I watch MSNBC and and every day they're
Speaker 3: just hammering the gas prices and Trump doesn't care about
Speaker 3: your you know, financial well being, and they.
Speaker 5: Run that clip over and over again. I'm sure or
Speaker 5: he said I don't care about that.
Speaker 3: And some of my favorite pundits who were pro war
Speaker 3: in the beginning have turned and now think it was
Speaker 3: a bad idea. I don't understand how we attach gas
Speaker 3: prices to this at all. He either got to stop
Speaker 3: ran from getting a nuclear weapon because it would be
Speaker 3: like the worst thing that ever happened to the world,
Speaker 3: or it's not and you just gotta It's like, it's
Speaker 3: like if you have to amputate a leg because you
Speaker 3: got an infection that'll kill you. Yeah, it's really, really horrible,
Speaker 3: but the alternative is worse. Yeah, it's a good metaphor,
Speaker 3: and you're really I'm getting the bomb could literally be
Speaker 3: the worst thing ever to happen to humanity.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's not an exaggeration.
Speaker 3: Could be the worst thing that ever happened on the
Speaker 3: planet if Iran got a bomb. In fact, I think
Speaker 3: it probably would be. But let me get back to
Speaker 3: Helprin's analysis. Unless this is directly related, the book might
Speaker 3: be related, but the administration has not done a good
Speaker 3: job of convincing people of that.
Speaker 5: Back to Halpern's analysis, which I thought was terrific. As usual,
Speaker 5: him talking about observing the current trajectory there's no chance
Speaker 5: of a deal, a sustainable deal. I agree completely. I
Speaker 5: just I think, what the hell are any of you
Speaker 5: talking about. On the other hand, the trajectory might be
Speaker 5: different than we think it is because of the economic
Speaker 5: stuff going on behind the scenes and ran as we've
Speaker 5: been discussing, or the diplomatic behind closed doors conversation is
Speaker 5: so wildly, radically different than the public pronunciations. We're all
Speaker 5: getting misled by the public, you know, the pronouncements. I
Speaker 5: should say, it's one of those two things. Or we're
Speaker 5: just completely wasting our time, and Trump is getting strung
Speaker 5: along and we're not pounding around for I don't know
Speaker 5: some of the reasons we've discussed. It's all so murky.
Speaker 5: I mean, war in conflict is always somewhat murky, but
Speaker 5: I swear this is this is like an algebra equation
Speaker 5: with all variables. I don't even know how to do
Speaker 5: the math.
Speaker 1: I'll bet Trump paces the Oval Office every.
Speaker 3: Day thinking they can't they can't put up with this
Speaker 3: much longer, thinking, you.
Speaker 1: Know, they've got to be about to fall.
Speaker 3: And if you're old enough in terms of regimes following falling,
Speaker 3: whether it's you know, the wall coming down, in East
Speaker 3: Germany or the Soviet Union, or the Arab Spring or
Speaker 3: all these differs. Every regime looks solid up until the
Speaker 3: moment they're not.
Speaker 1: So that's why it's always really hard to tell. Yeah.
Speaker 5: My final thought on the topic is on the popularity
Speaker 5: of the war and people saying it was a good
Speaker 5: idea or a bad idea. I'm back to you know,
Speaker 5: success as a thousand fathers and failures an orphans. It
Speaker 5: reminds me of what every NFL coach knows. If I
Speaker 5: go for it on fourth and two and make it,
Speaker 5: I'm the world's greatest genius. But if we don't make it,
Speaker 5: I should be fired immediately, right. That is true, same play,
Speaker 5: same situation. So this thing turns around around, gives up
Speaker 5: the nukes, the Middle East becomes a peaceful you know
Speaker 5: of Valahila.
Speaker 1: Well, then this is eighty eight percent.
Speaker 5: Of Americans to say, hell, yeah, the war was a
Speaker 5: great idea up with the USA.
Speaker 1: So we just got to see do we make it
Speaker 1: on fourth and two or not.
Speaker 3: I just wish they'd make the argument better. You can't
Speaker 3: have a well guess will be too expensive during the summer.
Speaker 3: Be the other side of the argument of Iran having
Speaker 3: a nuclear.
Speaker 1: Weapon, right, that's crazy, right?
Speaker 3: Anyhow, what are your thoughts? Text line four one five
Speaker 3: two nine five KFTC.
Speaker 1: While we're talking to you from the vehicle, looking at
Speaker 1: the fire, you look, I'm all these people.
Speaker 5: What if we have you get out?
Speaker 3: My baby's break down there and I will tell you.
Speaker 2: How about this?
Speaker 5: What if we have you get out of the car.
Speaker 3: We'll put you in one of our cars and will
Speaker 3: drive around the corner so we're somewhere about their everybody.
Speaker 1: I only get in this.
Speaker 3: So I said, you gave them to my house.
Speaker 1: I'll make you soar to lasagna or.
Speaker 2: Whatever you want.
Speaker 1: Oh, I have a pool. My babies are coming to
Speaker 1: my house to nice before.
Speaker 5: Oh why say drunk Britney Spears, trying to argue during
Speaker 5: a DUI arrest that she'll bring them to the house
Speaker 5: and make them lasagna and let them swim in her pool.
Speaker 3: So I didn't know what that was and until we
Speaker 3: got to until I heard lasagna. Because we've had this
Speaker 3: clip for several days. The fact that Britney Spears offered
Speaker 3: the cops lasagna.
Speaker 1: Come to a house and I'll make you lazagnia.
Speaker 3: I gotta admit Britney Spears says, you want to come over,
Speaker 3: I'll make you lasagna.
Speaker 1: I think I'm in Wow. We gotta at least think
Speaker 1: about it. She sounded like a child, and she's forty five.
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, And the whole part
Speaker 5: about my babies are coming to my house tonight.
Speaker 1: She has some serious mental problems.
Speaker 5: Which you would too, and she was afraid she'd lose
Speaker 5: like visitation or whatever the situation is with her kids.
Speaker 3: You would have mental problems too if starting as a
Speaker 3: like sixteen year old. Well actually she Disney, she started
Speaker 3: as like an eight year old. But starting as a child,
Speaker 3: your parents trotted you out as a sex object to
Speaker 3: the world to make gazillions of dollars, and you've been
Speaker 3: famous and hounded since you were a child. You'd be
Speaker 3: pretty weird too.
Speaker 5: Speaking of lawbreakers, this is something a former CIA official
Speaker 5: has been accused of stealing.
Speaker 1: What if she's a good cook. You think Britney Spears
Speaker 1: is a very good cook.
Speaker 5: You know there are some really good like frozen lasagnas
Speaker 5: you could get, or you know there's a pasta store
Speaker 5: not far from my place where you can order them
Speaker 5: to make you a lasagna.
Speaker 1: There's good frozen lasagna. You can order a lazagia that
Speaker 1: they'll make for you.
Speaker 5: The way I phrased it made it sound like you
Speaker 5: go in there and say make meal lasagna. No, no, no,
Speaker 5: you can order a lasagna made by the You could order.
Speaker 1: Them right yes, right away there.
Speaker 5: So yeah, yeah, a homemade lasagna is really really good,
Speaker 5: but there are some really good options prepared wise. That
Speaker 5: was always our traditional traditional summer vacation meal. We would
Speaker 5: drive Gladys. These were good times back in the day.
Speaker 5: We would drive from the Sacramento area up to sun River, Oregon.
Speaker 5: It's about nine hours with a minivan full of the kids,
Speaker 5: and we were all very tired and hungry when we
Speaker 5: got there, and we would pop a lasagna, frozen lasagna
Speaker 5: that was thawed from the nine hour drive into the oven.
Speaker 5: We'd all have lasagna to kick off our summer vacation.
Speaker 5: It was delightful.
Speaker 3: My lasagna story that I've told many times, and I
Speaker 3: always think that this is a deficit we have in
Speaker 3: the United States. So I knew a bunch of Italians
Speaker 3: way back in the day. For some reason, they were
Speaker 3: all university like Gradston the mob. For a while he
Speaker 3: was an enforcer. He didn't like having to kill people,
Speaker 3: but he did it.
Speaker 1: It's a job.
Speaker 3: These were all grad students, like PhDs and that sort
Speaker 3: of stuff, but they're from Italy and one Christmas I
Speaker 3: got to hang out with him and they all made
Speaker 3: lasagna and it was like eight different dudes made lasagna
Speaker 3: and they were all completely different and all amazing. But
Speaker 3: the fact that every one of these guys learned to
Speaker 3: make homemade lazagna completely from scratch, roll out the pasta,
Speaker 3: all the sort of stuff, that it was still a
Speaker 3: tradition in the two thousands. That you do that, I mean,
Speaker 3: we don't do that with our culture for whatever reason.
Speaker 1: I'll bet that was some damn good lasagna. Oh man.
Speaker 1: But grown men that.
Speaker 3: Knew how to make lasagna from scratch because their moms
Speaker 3: taught him to and they thought it was an important
Speaker 3: thing to carry.
Speaker 1: On right right culture tradition.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I love that former CIA official accused of stealing
Speaker 5: will tell you what he stole. Coming up, it's more
Speaker 5: than you're guessing. Guess again. Nope, still not enough.
Speaker 1: Holy crap.
Speaker 5: Plus an AI update so interesting, including what the Pope
Speaker 5: had to say.
Speaker 1: Awesome all on the way if you miss it. Get
Speaker 1: the podcast Armstrong A Getty on the Man Armstrong and
Speaker 1: Getty man O Mano.
Speaker 6: Men.
Speaker 1: We got lots of stuff to talk about. We Trump
Speaker 1: said some amazing things at.
Speaker 3: The cabinet meeting yesterday that we probably should get to probably.
Speaker 1: Hit that in hour three.
Speaker 5: So a lot of interesting the AI stuff to talk about,
Speaker 5: but I wanted to pay off this story first. It's
Speaker 5: the headline from the Washington Post. A former CIA official
Speaker 5: has been accused of stealing three hundred and three gold
Speaker 5: bars worth more than forty million dollars WHOA from the
Speaker 5: spy agency and stashing them in his Virginia residence, according
Speaker 5: to a criminal complaint. Here's my favorite part of the story.
Speaker 5: I mean, obviously, the fact that you could steal three
Speaker 5: hundred and three gold bars worth more than forty million dollars.
Speaker 1: That's enough, certainly.
Speaker 5: But he's also accused of misleading his superiors about his
Speaker 5: education military service and falsely claiming college degrees he did
Speaker 5: not have, and seventy seven thousand dollars in military leave
Speaker 5: pay he wasn't entitled to. If I'm this guy's spouse
Speaker 5: or partner in crime, or just his freaking brain, you
Speaker 5: have forty million dollars in gold bars, and you can
Speaker 5: nickel and dime the government over leave pay.
Speaker 1: Don't take any leave. Everything's by the book. Just don't what.
Speaker 5: You're gonna slip a rim of paper under your sport
Speaker 5: code on the way out too. You've got forty million
Speaker 5: dollars in gold bars in your house cap a low profile.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's It's interesting how many.
Speaker 3: Criminals are either stupid or what's driving them is not
Speaker 3: the result.
Speaker 1: There's something else.
Speaker 3: There's some sort of screw screwing the man or or
Speaker 3: getting away with it and showing that they're smarter than
Speaker 3: other people or something. Because if all you wanted was money,
Speaker 3: first of all, don't steal that many. You don't need
Speaker 3: forty million dollars take it. So I did the math.
Speaker 3: That's they're about one hundred and thirty thousand a piece.
Speaker 3: You don't grab a few that wouldn't be as likely
Speaker 3: to be noticed. And yeah, don't don't try to cheat
Speaker 3: on your vacation pay and everything else.
Speaker 1: You moron.
Speaker 5: The uh part of the piece in the post rather
Speaker 5: raises a really good question about the efficacy of US
Speaker 5: government background checks on this dude, as well as how
Speaker 5: he was allegedly able to persuade his superiors to entrust
Speaker 5: him with tens of million dollars millions of dollars in
Speaker 5: gold and large amounts of foreign currency.
Speaker 3: No kidding, that's the story. So your thorough background check
Speaker 3: for who should be, you know, in charge of some
Speaker 3: of the nation's important secrets and both bars and whatever
Speaker 3: else doesn't include actually seeing if they went to the
Speaker 3: university they wrote down on a piece of paper, because.
Speaker 1: That requires like a phone call to figure out. Yeah,
Speaker 1: no kidding.
Speaker 5: So the AFFI David by the FBI said, Rush that's
Speaker 5: this guy's name, made several requests for golden cash between
Speaker 5: November and March. Subsequent search of his government office revealed
Speaker 5: and only a portion of the currency was in storage
Speaker 5: there and no gold bars.
Speaker 1: Whoops, that's incredible. Two million bucks in cash too. Wow.
Speaker 1: At some point, don't you disappear? Brother?
Speaker 3: I mean again that he was clearly being driven by
Speaker 3: some sort of out smartened people or something that wasn't
Speaker 3: just money, or you would have disappeared.
Speaker 1: A long time ago.
Speaker 5: God, gold bars, you just got to get across the border, right, right.
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of AI stuff to talk about.
Speaker 5: I've been reading with interest more about Pope Leo's AI manifesto,
Speaker 5: and it's it's it's lovely in a lot of ways
Speaker 5: on a purely spiritual individual level. Him talking about the
Speaker 5: dangers of AI and how it can be an attack
Speaker 5: on the dignity of man and the dignity of work
Speaker 5: and having a life of purpose. All of this is true,
Speaker 5: not to mention harmful uses like the manipulation of information,
Speaker 5: violations of privacy, the fact that AI systems can reflect
Speaker 5: and reinforce the stereotypes or ideological bias of their designers
Speaker 5: and developers.
Speaker 1: So true, all of it's.
Speaker 5: Absolutely true, and it's absolutely lovely on an individual basis.
Speaker 5: But then he and I think it was the Wall
Speaker 5: Street Journal. Oh yeah, the Wall Street Journal says, yeah,
Speaker 5: all that stuff is so true and it's so well said,
Speaker 5: and the rest of it. But then, hand in hand
Speaker 5: with AOC and Bernie Sanders, he wants the government to
Speaker 5: regulate it all and keep a tight grip on it.
Speaker 1: Well, that's ridiculous, that is ridiculous.
Speaker 5: You know, stay in your lane, Pop Leo, root for
Speaker 5: the socks right and and do your poping help us
Speaker 5: find Jesus the idea that the Aocason, the Bernie Sanders
Speaker 5: of the world ought to be, you know, in charge
Speaker 5: of America's AI development, as China is going as hard
Speaker 5: and fast as they can add it so they can
Speaker 5: dominate us and subjugate the planet.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't think so, mister Pope.
Speaker 3: Or that the government would necessarily do a good job
Speaker 3: of regulating this.
Speaker 5: Oh my god, they're guaranteed not to guaranteed not to
Speaker 5: which if you're saying, well, Joseph, I feel like I'm
Speaker 5: on a you know, a fifty ton locomotive on ice,
Speaker 5: screaming toward a cliff with all this AI stuff, I
Speaker 5: share your sentiment, friend, Yeah, found this interesting. Uh, the
Speaker 5: new career odyssey waiting for today's college grads. According to
Speaker 5: the good folks at is it LinkedIn a big study,
Speaker 5: they estimate the college grads will have twice as many
Speaker 5: jobs over the course of their careers as those who
Speaker 5: started out fifteen years ago.
Speaker 3: Garan, Well, fifteen years ago, wow, because that's only well,
Speaker 3: it's only fifteen year but that's still well into the
Speaker 3: you're not going to come out of high school and
Speaker 3: work for the same company the rest of your life
Speaker 3: thing that.
Speaker 1: We've all recognized. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and they're talking about a couple of things. Number One,
Speaker 5: people are tending to work longer because they're living longer,
Speaker 5: but also because of AI and technological change. The fields
Speaker 5: you excel in from age twenty two to twenty seven
Speaker 5: might not exist when you're twenty eight, which is a
Speaker 5: hell of a deal living longer.
Speaker 3: Short a sight here, just because I was into this
Speaker 3: book about the biography about William Shakespeare. But so at
Speaker 3: the time that Shakespeare was bumping around in England, born
Speaker 3: in the mid fifteen hundreds, the average life span was
Speaker 3: forty or something like that. But in London, in the
Speaker 3: poorer areas of London, the average mail lived to be
Speaker 3: twenty five.
Speaker 5: Ooh, Now, I always need to separate infant mortality.
Speaker 1: That's what I don't understand. That's where it throws it
Speaker 1: all off. Yeah right, yeah, But.
Speaker 5: Because there's a separate statistic. If you survived to one year,
Speaker 5: then it's a totally different stat for your life expectancy.
Speaker 5: But anyway, the point remains, that's yeah.
Speaker 3: So I feel like that we haven't adjusted the world
Speaker 3: for the fact that most people live a really long time.
Speaker 1: We still haven't in a hundred ways. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you're gonna if you get out of
Speaker 3: high school at eighteen and you've got to support yourself
Speaker 3: till ninety, which might be close to the life expectancy
Speaker 3: if you you know, if you've already made it to eighteen,
Speaker 3: that's a lot of money you need.
Speaker 5: Yeah, especially since we're not having babies and social Security
Speaker 5: and Medicare are pyramid schemes.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, I'll make.
Speaker 3: An eighty eight, which is almost certainly the life expectancy
Speaker 3: of an eighteen year old.
Speaker 1: So you got seventy years you've got to support yourself.
Speaker 1: That's a long time.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say so, and I wish you hadn't
Speaker 5: brought it up. So let's see what I say. Oh,
Speaker 5: it's awesome more common to work a job that's disconnected
Speaker 5: from your undergraduate major. About forty two percent of recent
Speaker 5: college grads have jobs that don't require degrees at all,
Speaker 5: never mind ones in the field that they studied.
Speaker 3: Wait a second, I'm not going to be able to
Speaker 3: make my living in bipoc poetry analysis.
Speaker 5: That number is up four percent from two and a
Speaker 5: half years ago, so it is trending upward in a big,
Speaker 5: big hurry. And you know, my takeaway from this article is, Yeah,
Speaker 5: it makes sense that people will have more different jobs
Speaker 5: and more different industries because of the base change. But
Speaker 5: is it going to be twice as many jobs or
Speaker 5: three times as many or half as many? Or will
Speaker 5: they never work again? Or will robots harvest our internal organs?
Speaker 5: Nobody has the idea. I'm hoping that last one.
Speaker 3: I don't know what a robot's gonna do with my pancreas,
Speaker 3: but it's on my radar screen. I don't know how
Speaker 3: they I mean, somebody's got to write these articles, but
Speaker 3: what are they basing these guesses on. Nobody has any
Speaker 3: idea what industries AI is going to completely destroy, completely destroy,
Speaker 3: like will never exist again in the history of the.
Speaker 1: Earth, right right, right? Hey Michael, do we have a
Speaker 1: vital commercial message here?
Speaker 5: Oh, of what a pleasure to talk to you about
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Speaker 3: I'd like a security system to keep the AI robots
Speaker 3: out of my house so they don't come in and
Speaker 3: harvest my organs.
Speaker 5: Hang out of your organs, yeah, with both hands. So
Speaker 5: this is something. Using AI for just ten minutes might
Speaker 5: make you lazy and dumb. Okay to you do a
Speaker 5: new study You've said this a bunch of times to like,
Speaker 5: I love that headline.
Speaker 1: I use AI a lot.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, Michael, you know the jury is ready to
Speaker 5: your honor.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And I don't understand why this would be. I don't
Speaker 3: understand it anyway.
Speaker 1: I see, I understand how God I did this.
Speaker 3: So I was in bed all day long yesterday with
Speaker 3: the rotavirus, which we'll talk more about later, but spent
Speaker 3: way too much time just scrolling through YouTube shorts or whatever.
Speaker 3: God that stuff's addictive. Now that making you dumb? I
Speaker 3: completely understand. I feel like when I finally break myself
Speaker 3: free from that, I'd like, how do I tie my shoes?
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm dumb, but I don't understand why just
Speaker 3: using a I would well.
Speaker 5: According to a new study from researchers at Carnegie Mellon,
Speaker 5: which sounds like something you'd have at a summer barbecue, MI,
Speaker 5: t Oxford, and UCLA, using chatbots for even just ten
Speaker 5: minutes may have shockingly negative impact on people's ability to
Speaker 5: think and problem solve. Researchers task people with solving various problems,
Speaker 5: including simple fractions and reading comprehension, through an online platform
Speaker 5: that paid them for their work. They conducted three experiments,
Speaker 5: each involving several hundred people. Some participants were given access
Speaker 5: to AI assistance capable of solving the problems autonomously. When
Speaker 5: the AI helper was suddenly taken away, these people were
Speaker 5: significantly more likely to give up on the problem or
Speaker 5: flub their answers. The study suggests you take away the.
Speaker 1: AI, I say, I give up.
Speaker 5: The study suggests that widespread use of AI might boost
Speaker 5: productivity at the expense of developing foundational problem solving skills,
Speaker 5: says one of the head professors. The takeaway is not
Speaker 5: that we should ban AI in education or workplaces. AI
Speaker 5: can clearly help people perform better in the moment, and
Speaker 5: that can be valuable, but we should be more careful
Speaker 5: about what kind of help AI provides.
Speaker 1: And when.
Speaker 5: He says essentially and it's super interesting and we'll post it,
Speaker 5: I don't think you'll get Paywald at Armstrong and getty
Speaker 5: dot com will post a link. He says, it's fundamentally
Speaker 5: a cognitive question about persistence learning and how people were
Speaker 5: respond to difficulty. We wanted to take these broader concerns
Speaker 5: about long term human AI interactions, studying them in a
Speaker 5: controlled setting. The resulting study seems particularly concerning because a
Speaker 5: person's willingness to persist with problem solving is crucial to
Speaker 5: acquiring new skills and also predicts their capacity to learn
Speaker 5: over time. You know, they said it was shocking the
Speaker 5: way people they just they got intellectually very lazy using
Speaker 5: AI for ten minutes.
Speaker 3: This kind of makes sense to me, And it's a
Speaker 3: little bit similar to the.
Speaker 1: We've talked about how much we all hate.
Speaker 3: Like if somebody comes up with a you know, who
Speaker 3: is the lead guitar player for whatever, and you're sitting
Speaker 3: around and trying to guess it and somebody just googles
Speaker 3: it and then hits you with the answer. It's like, no,
Speaker 3: the fun was us trying to think of it and
Speaker 3: come up with it or whatever.
Speaker 1: Great, you just google it.
Speaker 3: So now we do the same thing with like everything,
Speaker 3: rather than figure it out somewhat or think about it
Speaker 3: a little longer, or.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can come up with an example.
Speaker 3: This is a bad example because I don't know if
Speaker 3: I'd ever figured out on my own. But the other
Speaker 3: day my son's truck wouldn't start. I mentioned this yesterday
Speaker 3: I went on AI got a year model a truck.
Speaker 3: This is happening, and it gave me the five things.
Speaker 3: I mean that it is as opposed to me trying
Speaker 3: to figure it out on my own. If we do
Speaker 3: that with on this particular, I don't know if I'd
Speaker 3: have figured out on my own, But if we do
Speaker 3: that with every single problem we have, yeah, the ability
Speaker 3: to figure things out is.
Speaker 1: Gonna go away.
Speaker 5: You remember that big study that came out a few
Speaker 5: years ago that doing puzzles to the like puzzles.
Speaker 1: Hard enough that you're frustrated.
Speaker 5: That's when your brain is improving or that's a staving
Speaker 5: off age related cognitive loss. It's that feeling of being
Speaker 5: frustrated or really having to concentrate on it.
Speaker 1: That's what you're talking about.
Speaker 5: I can feel my brain, I can feel my body
Speaker 5: chemistry change.
Speaker 1: When you talk about vexing problem that you're thinking, what
Speaker 1: the heck is it? That feeling?
Speaker 5: If we lose that to this studies point, the next
Speaker 5: time you think I'm not done not going through that,
Speaker 5: it's like your electric bike conking out. When you become
Speaker 5: reliant on it, You're like, I gotta pedal up a hell.
Speaker 1: Anyway. If you have any thoughts.
Speaker 3: On this would be interested in texting four one, five, two, nine,
Speaker 3: five k FTC A lot more on the way.
Speaker 6: James Carville says Donald Trump can't be the anti Christ
Speaker 6: because he's too dumb. Meanwhile, Carville thinks he's Jesus because
Speaker 6: everyone who sees his face says.
Speaker 1: Jesus, what happened?
Speaker 5: Wow?
Speaker 1: Man.
Speaker 3: If you haven't been following James Carvill's Twitter feed, he
Speaker 3: is off the rails. Oh yeah, he's unhinged. He's so angry.
Speaker 1: Very very old.
Speaker 3: Couple of things for you. This is a sad one
Speaker 3: if you're old enough to remember what a big deal
Speaker 3: Sugar Ray Leonard was as a boxer. He's got some
Speaker 3: troubles with his son. Sugar Ray Leonard makes shocking claims
Speaker 3: about son after alleged violent incident at the Legends home.
Speaker 3: He's got a twenty five year old He's filed a
Speaker 3: request for a restraining order against his kid. Has become
Speaker 3: a drug addict and just can't shake it and has
Speaker 3: been stealing from him and dangerous to himself and others.
Speaker 3: He's overdosed four times, Sugar Ray Leonard said, and I
Speaker 3: hadn't written declaration to the police in the county. They've
Speaker 3: had to bring him back to life. Two times at
Speaker 3: the hospital, he's stolen extreme amounts of money, and he
Speaker 3: asked the judge for order that would require his son
Speaker 3: to stay one hundred yards away from him.
Speaker 1: What a horrible situation that is? Yeah, too bad, freaking
Speaker 1: modern drugs.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 3: I told story about somebody I know whose son, really
Speaker 3: really successful kid started on that gas station heroin thing.
Speaker 3: Is this like a kind of like a five hour
Speaker 3: energy sort of deal just to try to stay a
Speaker 3: little more awake, and it led him toward opioids and
Speaker 3: just it's a disaster. Ugh, I know, I hate that story.
Speaker 3: I like this story though. I remember when this first happened,
Speaker 3: and I was shocked that people didn't make a bigger
Speaker 3: deal out of it. During the protests at the very
Speaker 3: beginning of all this hullabaloo of the College Kid's protest
Speaker 3: in Israel, after October seventh, et cetera, et cetera, UCLA
Speaker 3: students blocking Jewish students from getting into their dorms or
Speaker 3: the library or going to class, and they got away
Speaker 3: with it, and I thought, how is this even possible? Well,
Speaker 3: there was a fresh lawsuit from the US Department of
Speaker 3: Justice on how UCLA created a hostile educational environment for
Speaker 3: a specific protected group of students, and they absolutely did.
Speaker 3: Maba thugs who took over the campus in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 3: blocking Jewish students from reaching their classes unless they renounced Zionism.
Speaker 3: Can you imagine any other group, protected group being on
Speaker 3: the bad end of that sort of thing, and the
Speaker 3: media basically covering it up by not covering it at all,
Speaker 3: and the Justice Department overlooking it.
Speaker 5: It's incredible, Germany, nineteen thirty six.
Speaker 3: As the lawsuit says, the fact is that UCLA was
Speaker 3: indifferent at best to the outrageous behavior of the activists
Speaker 3: and the anti Israel encampment. Actually, it would be more
Speaker 3: accurate to say that UCLA back to the encampment, ringing
Speaker 3: it with steel fencing and protecting it from security personnel.
Speaker 3: We talked about that at the time, how they put
Speaker 3: a fence around it to make sure nobody could bother
Speaker 3: the students that.
Speaker 1: Were keeping Jewish kids from going to class.
Speaker 5: And if I'm encouraged by every professor I have, in
Speaker 5: what sense is the university just indifferent?
Speaker 1: Please?
Speaker 5: Man?
Speaker 3: The fact that the universe didn't call out these kids
Speaker 3: expel them, that every faculty member wasn't giving speeches that
Speaker 3: it wasn't on the news.
Speaker 1: Every single night. It hardly got any attention anywhere in
Speaker 1: the country.
Speaker 5: That illustrates how deep the rod is in our universities,
Speaker 5: the permanent omni cause, the Neo Marxism, unbelievable.
Speaker 3: Anyway, we'll see where this goes in the Justice Department
Speaker 3: and stay on top of it. Trump had a big
Speaker 3: cabinet meeting yesterday. We'll give you a couple of clips
Speaker 3: of that that are danged interesting. An hour three I
Speaker 3: hope you can stick around for if you miss it,
Speaker 3: gets Podcast Armstrong You Getty on the Mom