1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 3: Spreading the court. 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Ten seconds remaining. 5 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 3: He just goes show up to the basket. Under the basket, 6 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 3: it's the true for the wind God. 7 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 2: A miracle. I'm water hit that. 8 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 3: One from the parking lot. 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: What's up the gener nation? Welcome to the Big Bets 10 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast. This is the College Basketball Conference Tournament 11 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 2: Betting Preview, Part eight. It's the finale. I'm stucky joining 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 2: me today or my fellow BBOC co hosts Mike Calburys 13 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: and Greg Guadal. Today we will hit the remaining conference tournaments, 14 00:00:53,960 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 2: which include the MIAC and Swack diaries, touch on at 15 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: the end, the talk some Ivy madness, and then of 16 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: course the Big Ten and we'll talk about the eight 17 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 2: ten again. Jim and I talked about it a little bit, 18 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 2: but also want to talk about that with Caliberies and 19 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 2: Greg to get their thoughts. Congratulations to anybody who made 20 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: it through all of the podcasts. Someone the other day 21 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 2: DM Mean said thanks for all the conference tournament previews 22 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 2: and all the info. How can I pay it back? 23 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 2: Or and I said, I responded, I said, you don't 24 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: you don't know, you don't know me anything. I oh, 25 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: you guys something the listeners make the show hopefully can 26 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: pay it back with some winners. So congrats to anyone 27 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: who made it made it all the way through. You 28 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 2: guys are the reason why this show exists and why 29 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 2: we can do what we do. I'm just excited for 30 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 2: this to be over and for the games to start, 31 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 2: for daytime action to start. So yeah, let's let's get 32 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 2: right into it. I guess if you do want to 33 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 2: pay it back, leave, I'll be I'll do a plug, 34 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 2: leave a five star review. Those always help us out 35 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 2: on the podcast. Subscribe on subscribe, subscribe to all friend 36 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: you know the deal. All right, gentlemen, let's jump right 37 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 2: in to business. We'll start with the Big Ten Tournament, 38 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 2: which will be held between March twelfth and the sixteenth 39 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 2: in Indianapolis, Indiana. The first round games will start on Wednesday, Minnesota, 40 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 2: Northwestern Ohio State, Iowa, Rutgers, USC and then we have 41 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 2: five five teams who received a bye to the second 42 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 2: round Oregon, Indiana who will play each other on Thursday, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, 43 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 2: and then four teams that received a double by to 44 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 2: the quarters Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan and UCLA. The craziest 45 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 2: fact for me in all the conference tournaments is that Nebraska, 46 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 2: who just a short two weeks ago looked like a 47 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 2: lock for the NCAA Tournament and is now not in 48 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: the fifteen team field for the Big Ten tournament after 49 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 2: losing to Iowa on Sunday for their fifth straight loss. 50 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: And then as if Nebraska events they don't have to 51 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 2: deal with enough pain in football and basketball already, who's 52 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: a five team tiebreaker and they're the odd man out 53 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 2: and Nebraska will not be here. You got a feel 54 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 2: for Bryce Williams like that man, They do all you 55 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 2: could do, and and most partly gotta feel for Nebraska events. 56 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 3: All they know, Isa they got Nebraska. 57 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 4: Omaha just flip go the Homer Simpson, go into the bushes, 58 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 4: come back out with your Omaha gear on. 59 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: That's that's true. Yeah, I don't think Nebraska fans would 60 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 2: go in and come out with a Creighton shirt, but 61 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 2: I think Omaha they could do. Ye, get ready to 62 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 2: beat up some trash cans. So uh, Michigan State is 63 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: the favorite here as they won the outright regular season 64 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 2: title after a scorching hot finish to the regular season, 65 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 2: and then you have a bunch of teams in that 66 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 2: next tier Maryland round five to one, UCLA, Illinois, Wisconstant, Purdue, 67 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 2: and at like six to seven to one range. And 68 00:04:54,760 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: then despite being the three seed, Michigan eleven to one 69 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: get a much better price to them because they did 70 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 2: not have a strong close of the year, and they 71 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 2: became the first Division One team to win seventy percent 72 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 2: of their conference games with a negative scoring differential since 73 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 2: Northern Iowa in nineteen eighty three, who also just got 74 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: blown out in a bunch of games and then won 75 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 2: all the close ones they had their season end. Maybe 76 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 2: it was poetic justice by losing in overtime by fourteen, 77 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 2: so I guess they they couldn't lose the close one 78 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: I went overtime, they still lost by fourteen. But yeah, 79 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 2: let's let's just dive right in, right into it. Greg, 80 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 2: Let's I'll start with you, and before I get your 81 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:58,720 Speaker 2: overarching thoughts is do you have any like what what 82 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 2: has happened to Michigan is just the luck has run out? 83 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 2: Has it gotten much worse? The defensive issue is at 84 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 2: the back court. Are you completely out on this team? 85 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 2: Is there any hope that they can turn it around. 86 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 2: Is there any interest in buying low on the Wolverines, 87 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 2: who do just need to win three games to do this. 88 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on your Wolverines. 89 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 3: I could be talked into let's buy them back outside 90 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 3: of the Big Ten. I think they need to get 91 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 3: out of this conference. I think the easiest thing to 92 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 3: pinpoint is that first game against Michigan State. The Voodoo 93 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 3: just went away. They were leading at behalf. It was 94 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 3: in the Chrysler Center, Dusty had just signed an extension, 95 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 3: and in the second half, Danny Wolf and Vlag Golden 96 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 3: were good enough to win that game. Their guards just 97 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 3: went into their shell. Which is not the first time 98 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 3: Michigan State's guards have gone out and punked a team 99 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 3: mentally emotionally, but there's been lingering effects. I mean the 100 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 3: game coming right off of that game, they scored forty 101 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 3: nine points and then they barely beat Rutgers on the 102 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 3: Namuri Burnett buzzer beater. Like I think they've been the 103 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 3: fourteenth best team in this league since that Michigan State game. 104 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 3: Per Torvick, it's ugly and it's not just Fluky catching 105 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: up to them. They are significantly worse than they were 106 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 3: coming into that Michigan State game, even if you didn't 107 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 3: buy the close game stuff. So I wouldn't touch it here. 108 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 3: I honestly do think this is a group that just 109 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 3: needs to get away from basketball a little bit. I 110 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 3: don't think they're all that motivated. They're going to be 111 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 3: safely in the tournament and you hope you get a 112 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 3: draw that just can't match up with two seven footers 113 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 3: once you get out of the league. 114 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Michigan plays such a unique style, which can 115 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 2: be one of their strengths, and we saw that early 116 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 2: in the year. But the problem with that is that 117 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 2: during league play and especially now in conference tournament setting, 118 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 2: when you're playing teams for a third time, teams adjust 119 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 2: right and they have film, they learn your weaknesses. Okay, 120 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 2: this is how we have to defend team, this is 121 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 2: how we can attack them. So I think part of 122 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 2: that is what happened. Part of that is also it 123 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 2: was just they were getting lucky in close games. But yeah, 124 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 2: I would echo that sentiment that they will benefit from 125 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 2: just a little time off and getting out of the 126 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 2: Big Ten where these teams are familiar with their unique scheme. 127 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 2: Kyle Gries any of the top four seeds. Tickle your fancy. 128 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: UCLA plus six fifty was enough. 129 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 4: I basically had it circle before the official odds came 130 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 4: out of anything north of. 131 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 2: Six to one. 132 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:35,439 Speaker 1: I was interested. 133 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 4: Let's start with the fact that historically this tournament has 134 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 4: been one where it matters to get those buys to 135 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 4: the quarters. In the past ten Big Ten tournaments, the 136 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 4: average combined seeding of the championship game has been seven. 137 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 4: So generally speaking, with a few outliars peppered in there, 138 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 4: it's been top four teams kind of matching up or 139 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 4: at least, you know, one of those top teams that 140 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 4: get by to the quarters making it to the title game. 141 00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 4: And then since mid January, I mean, just look at 142 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 4: this UCLA team. They're the top team in the Big Ten. 143 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 4: They're eighth in America per Torvik, and this path is 144 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 4: kind of ideal in terms of who they've shown that 145 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 4: they can beat and who they've struggled with in the 146 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 4: past six weeks. They avoid Illinois and Purdue at least 147 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 4: on this side of the bracket, losing to both this season, 148 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 4: and they draw in Michigan State, who they defeated at 149 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 4: home in a close game. I mean it's the same formula. 150 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 4: They frustrate teams with pace and the defensive identity. You know, 151 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 4: Mick was yelling at everybody, his team, the conference, schedule makers, 152 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 4: the media. 153 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: He was trying to get these kids to buy in. 154 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 4: I think a lot of those public sentiments he was 155 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 4: hoping that it would ricochet and that it would resonate 156 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 4: with some of the kids and they play. 157 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: A little bit harder and listen to them a little 158 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: bit more inside the locker room. 159 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 4: Just follow him after that UCLA game, That's all he 160 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 4: was talking about. He's like, these guys stuck to the script. 161 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 4: They did exactly what I wanted to do. Defensively, his 162 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 4: front court is playing a lot better. And then when 163 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 4: I look at Sky Clark and Dylan Andrews, these guards 164 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 4: and their their primary ball handlers, They've continue to play 165 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 4: better and better down the stretch. And that's the reason 166 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 4: why they're top twenty five in assists to made few 167 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 4: local ratio as well as assists of turnover ratio and critically, 168 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 4: because they're just an average rebounding team, sometimes they can 169 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 4: get pushed around a little bit on the glass, but 170 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 4: these guards help them be top ten and turnover margin 171 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 4: in the whole country. They're eighth in that regard plus 172 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 4: four and a half per game. So with that likely 173 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 4: path of Wisconsin Spardi, who they played in tight games 174 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 4: in the past six weeks and got over the hump, 175 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 4: I think plus six to fifty is enough for me 176 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 4: to buy in. Eric Day Junior is also finding confidence, 177 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 4: at least from you know, shooting on the Perimeter's nine 178 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 4: for his last fourteen trays. So all this put together, 179 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:33,719 Speaker 4: the last piece of it, I just want to throw 180 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 4: out there. Cronin in tournament play. Two of the last 181 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 4: three Pac twelve tournaments he led the Bruins to the 182 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 4: conference tournament championship game, and three of the last four 183 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 4: big dances that he's been to Final four and two 184 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 4: Sweet sixteens. We took a lot of potshots on him, 185 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 4: you know early in the season that he was yelling 186 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 4: with everybody, like I said in January, But it's worked 187 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 4: and they're playing their best basketball, and I think, you know, 188 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: in the Big Ten, there was all these conversations about 189 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 4: how did these new conference teams work across the country, 190 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 4: cal and Stanford and the ACC these West Coast teams 191 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 4: being in the Big Ten, were they going to be 192 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 4: physical enough and mentally tough enough. I think they went 193 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 4: through the hardship mentally, and I think certainly they had 194 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 4: the pedigree in the style of basketball to win in 195 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 4: the Big Ten tournament. 196 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: So at plus six to fifty, I can take a shot. 197 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,839 Speaker 2: Well, I'll go directly head to head with you, because 198 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 2: I bet. What did I make? I made UCLA seven 199 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 2: to one, so I don't hate it. I made I 200 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 2: bet Wisconsin plus seven hundred. I made them six plus 201 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: six fifty. It is the only bet that I should value, 202 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 2: and it was the team that I kind of wanted 203 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 2: to bet, So it's not a ton of value. But 204 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 2: I they've been the best team in the league since 205 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 2: February first, even though they're shooting just thirty two percent 206 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 2: from three, and they had to slide down the stretch 207 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 2: of the regular season and teams are shooting like their 208 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 2: three point variants. Has been pretty unlucky over the past 209 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 2: month and a half. I think of the best team 210 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 2: in the Big Ten all around at full strength, and 211 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 2: they obviously missed klesmant down the stretch. If you look 212 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: at his on off splits, their defense gets much worse. 213 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 2: I shouldn't say much worse but their defense gets worse 214 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 2: without him on the floor and more McGee and also 215 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 2: their depth takes a hit and as a result, you're playing, 216 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 2: you know, a walk on in crunch time minutes at times. 217 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,839 Speaker 2: So Plesant should be back here. It's also another another 218 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 2: guy who can make shots from the outside. I think 219 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 2: Wisconsin matched up really well with UCLA since I think 220 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 2: they can torch their their defense. You did mention the 221 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 2: UCLA beat them and they beat Michigan State. Where were 222 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 2: those games in California? At UCLA. I cannot trust them 223 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 2: to win three games on the road. They just haven't 224 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 2: been the same team. I think they're outside the top 225 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 2: three to fifty and has the metrics away from home metric. 226 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 2: So I do respect Cronin and they have to win 227 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 2: one fewer game. But I think this Wisconsin team will 228 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 2: come and super motivated after they had that late season 229 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: slide losing I think three of five, they won't beat themselves. 230 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 2: They'll get defensive boards, they won't foul. They should be 231 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: at full strength and a lot of this same core 232 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: did this same thing last year from the same spot 233 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 2: as a five seed, they got to the final. They 234 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 2: took out the one on the way so we know 235 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 2: that they understand what it takes to get to this championship. 236 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 2: It was all I'm looking for, and I would love 237 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 2: another shot of Wisconsin against Michigan State because I worry 238 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 2: about you size, transition defensive bit against Michigan State, but 239 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 2: Wisconsin limit you and transition won't let you near the rim. 240 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 2: And what happened to that first beating, I don't think 241 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 2: it's going to happen again. Wisconsin was in the game 242 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: in East Lansing despite shooting five of thirty two from three. 243 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 2: I think it was even worse than that me. I 244 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 2: think it was five to thirty two. Michigan State has 245 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: been awesome, but teams are also shooting twenty five percent 246 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 2: from three since February first against them in league play. 247 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 2: Is those teams are always going to be better than 248 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: the rest of the league in three point defense. Over 249 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 2: the past twenty years, Dave held opponents to thirty two 250 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 2: and a half percent from three, while the rest of 251 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 2: the league has set opponsed to thirty four and a half. 252 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 2: So there's something real there. It's their length, their physicality, 253 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 2: and I respect their depth, and that's great in a 254 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 2: setting like this, but they've definitely benefited from some good fortune. 255 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: They're due to get just thirteen for twenty from three, 256 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 2: and if there's one team that's going to do what, 257 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 2: it is Wisconsin. If I was a Michigan State fan, 258 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 2: I would want someone to just go nuts from three 259 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 2: one of these games coming up, because I wouldn't want 260 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 2: to go into the NCAA tournament on a run where 261 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 2: everyone is shooting three of twenty eight from three, because 262 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 2: then I would just start to have I would start 263 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 2: to be afraid of twenty sixteen Middle Tennessee fifteen seed 264 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 2: going I think thirteen of twenty from three and upstating, 265 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 2: upsetting Michigan State. Can't believe that was nine years ago. 266 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 2: So I took a shot with Wisconsin. Greg, what are 267 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 2: your thoughts on the upper half or you can go 268 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 2: wherever you want to go. 269 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna give you my winner pick from the 270 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 3: lower half in just a moment. But I think you 271 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 3: guys both make good points. I want to stay entirely 272 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 3: away from the top half of this bracket, though, because 273 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 3: of the many good points you made. Like UCLA has 274 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 3: been awesome for two months, Wisconsin metrically has been either 275 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 3: the best or second best team in this league for 276 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 3: a very long time. And then you've got Michigan State, 277 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 3: who I think they're like plus two seventy five right now, 278 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 3: and they matched produce win total from last season when 279 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: they had Sakiti, except with a larger points differential. Like 280 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 3: we don't view this team as dominant. They kind of 281 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 3: have been on the scoreboard even if the analytics don't 282 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 3: show it. I think that team's filled with psycho paths 283 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 3: that you know it's possible they're going to get Indiana 284 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 3: in the first game. That would be a revenge game 285 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 3: for them, if you're worried about motivation there, Like I 286 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 3: think they want to pay Woodson back for spoiling his 287 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 3: oo's record setting night. And I don't know, there's just 288 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: a world here where Michigan State just decides let's do 289 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 3: this thing. But to me, Wisconsin UCLA is a total 290 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 3: toss up game. You both make good reasons. Whoever comes 291 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 3: out of that game I think will have a good shot. 292 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 3: To me, there's one team that has the absolutely perfect, 293 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 3: humongous advantage drawwise here, and it's the two time defending 294 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 3: Big Ten champions coming into this season, Purdue. You're getting 295 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 3: them at the same price that you could get Wisconsin 296 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 3: or UCLA, give or take, you know, a small margin. 297 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 3: I've seen all these from plus six to fifty to 298 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 3: plus seven hundred, depending on where you're looking. The depth 299 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 3: is the terrifying thing with Purdue. 300 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was gonna ask you about. You're 301 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 2: so re lined on two guys to win four and four. 302 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,879 Speaker 3: It's terrifying, and I wish they had the buye, but 303 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 3: I would pose it. Playing Michigan may be like a bye. 304 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna have to work all that 305 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 3: hard for that one. And in their first matchup it's 306 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 3: USC or Rutgers. They hammered both of those teams three 307 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 3: and zero against them, average margin of victory twenty two 308 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 3: plus points, like completely non competitive games. I don't expect 309 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 3: them to have really any trouble at all until they 310 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 3: get to the semi and at that point, Illinois and 311 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 3: Maryland two teams that have a lot of upside. But 312 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,639 Speaker 3: there is a world here that produced path to a 313 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 3: championship game features going through teams that are as limited 314 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 3: depth wise as them. I mean, Michigan doesn't have a 315 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 3: bench at all. Maryland may have this worst bench of 316 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 3: this entire group and then all of a sudden you 317 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 3: get to the championship, do you run into tire legs. Potentially, 318 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 3: who knows who they would even play at that point, 319 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 3: But to me, there's a very reasonable chance, at least motivationally, 320 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 3: this group of guys that have been winning championships since 321 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 3: they walked into this program are probably gonna want to 322 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 3: get up for this one. I firmly believe that Purdue 323 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 3: has a better chance to win this tournament than they 324 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 3: do make a serious run in the NCAA tournament. I 325 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 3: don't think that's lost on Painter. This is a program 326 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 3: that really cares about conference accolades. They will remind you 327 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 3: of that any opportunity that they get. And you look 328 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 3: at how they've played recently. I was impressed with how 329 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 3: they performed and faired on the road at Illinois. They 330 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 3: ended up losing this game, but I thought they were 331 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 3: in control. They were up ten with about eleven minutes 332 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 3: left in that game. To the point on depth, Braden 333 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 3: Smith missed about four wide open jumpers short in the 334 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 3: final two minutes. And you know, I think we've seen 335 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 3: him step up in the big moment. Playing forty minutes 336 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 3: a night since the beginning of the season plenty of times. 337 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 3: I'm not all that worried that because they didn't go 338 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 3: in against Illinois that that means something larger about him 339 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 3: being worn down. But bottom line, they have the best 340 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 3: post scorer in the league, they have the best point 341 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 3: guard in the country, and they've got coach that I 342 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 3: just trust x's and o's wise that has hung some 343 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 3: sort of big ten banner each of the last three seasons. 344 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 3: With the favorable draw at plus six fifty, it's a 345 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 3: must bet for me, even if you do have some 346 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 3: concerns with them. And reminder, this game this tournament will 347 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:21,479 Speaker 3: be played in Indianapolis in Indiana, a state where Braden 348 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 3: Smith and Fletcher Lawyer are forty nine to five outright 349 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 3: with hin state lines in their three year careers in college. 350 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 3: They're going to have a sizeable crowd advantage in every 351 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 3: single game in this tournament, and I think motivationally they're 352 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 3: going to want it. It's the best value bet on 353 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 3: the board. 354 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: Well see you make you make some good points. 355 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 3: I do. 356 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 2: I do fear their death, but you know, getting Michigan 357 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 2: in a potential quarterfinal game is ideal compared to the 358 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 2: path for the others and their potential quarterfinal opponents. I thought, 359 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 2: I was. I remember like a week ago, I said, Man, 360 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 2: I'm curious to see what this Rutgers price is going 361 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 2: to be. You got two lottery I ran my stuff. 362 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 2: I actually would need like four hundred to one to 363 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,239 Speaker 2: bet it, and it's like two fifty to one. I 364 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 2: was surprised. But because Rocus plays no defense and then 365 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 2: they obviously have to win five games in five days. 366 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 2: But like, if you were gonna do that, I could 367 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,239 Speaker 2: still guarantee they be usc Us. He's offense has been 368 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 2: really good lately. The USC's defense is still bad. But 369 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 2: you gotta beat usc in a shootout? Can you beat 370 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 2: per doing in a one game setting? Because then you 371 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 2: get the vulnerable Michigan team in the quarters who you 372 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 2: should have been in Michigan. You know, then you might 373 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,719 Speaker 2: run out of gas against better competition, but if you had, 374 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 2: if you have a two fifty to one, you can 375 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 2: profit from that. At that point, I just couldn't get there. 376 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 2: But the one thing that scares me about the bottom 377 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 2: half is I can't I can't figure out Illinois, Maryland, 378 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 2: and a lot of it's going to depend on more 379 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 2: as Johnson play and the reason for that number one, 380 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 2: he's probably their most he's probably the most impactful and 381 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 2: best defender overall. And if you're gonna play Maryland with 382 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 2: Queen and Reece and if you're gonna play Purdue, it 383 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 2: would have been nice to have him against TKR, right, 384 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 2: Like you saw that without him, TKR could just do 385 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 2: whatever he wanted. But now you're gonna go up against 386 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 2: Queen and Reees. Also, Johnson enables them to play just 387 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 2: their best lineups and they don't have to go deeper 388 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 2: into that bench. And like, if they're gonna win four 389 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 2: games in four days and he wasn't available, then you 390 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 2: got to start going into like way more Jake Davis 391 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 2: minutes and it gets a lot disier in your defense. 392 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: Just isn't that trustworthy? So Illinois is surging they finally 393 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 2: got healthy, but Maryland is also very very good Illinois 394 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 2: just can they but think what it comes out of Illinois? 395 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 2: Like can they hit thirty percent? If they hit like 396 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 2: thirty percent stent from three, they're unstoppable. The problem is 397 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 2: sometimes they shoot eight team and they probably shoot a 398 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 2: little bit too many, but that's that's kind of what 399 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,719 Speaker 2: throws a wrench into it. For me is like, is 400 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 2: Illinois fully healthy? Because Johnson is important regardless, but especially 401 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 2: in that matchup against Maryland, you have any thoughts there, greg. 402 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, they expect him to play. From what I've heard, now, 403 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 3: what percent is he is a fair question. I think 404 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 3: they're rushing him back, especially with Maryland looming right if 405 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 3: you get through that first game, they're I can almost 406 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,360 Speaker 3: guarantee he'll play at that point, even if he's banged up. 407 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 3: I think if you are an Illinois believer, it's worth 408 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 3: a bet at the number right now, because again, I'll 409 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,679 Speaker 3: listen to cases for Purdue, Maryland or Illinois, depending on 410 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 3: what you believe here. For me, it's really hard to 411 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,360 Speaker 3: see this Illinois team winning games because there will be 412 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 3: that stinker somewhere along the way, Like they just they've 413 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 3: done this since the beginning of the season, even in 414 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 3: the non Kong when they weren't historically bad percentage wise 415 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 3: from three, they were still you know, volatile night to night, 416 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 3: not doing this three to four consecutive nights, and I 417 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 3: don't think they do have a backup plan when those 418 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,920 Speaker 3: shots don't go in. Now, when they played Maryland the 419 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:24,880 Speaker 3: first time, they lost by twenty one. There was no 420 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 3: tomavisage in that game, so we have not seen full 421 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 3: strength Illinois against Maryland. But I am actually concerned bringing 422 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 3: Marez Johnson back. 423 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 2: He does a mess up to the rotation and what 424 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 2: they have going. 425 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, because Trey White and Will Riley have been the 426 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 3: instrumental reasons this team has looked so good in the 427 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 3: last three games. Trey White has taken the Marez spot. 428 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 3: He was getting DMP coach's decisions when Morez was healthy 429 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 3: most recently, and Will Riley just finally overtook benham Rickhouse, 430 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,679 Speaker 3: who's been awful for most of the season. But to me, 431 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 3: it's highly likely even if you bring Mores off the bench, 432 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 3: those are two guys that have had humongous emotional, mental 433 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 3: concerns and low points this season. I don't think they're 434 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,920 Speaker 3: going to take super well to going from thirty five 435 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 3: and thirty six minutes a night in this three game 436 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 3: win streak to suddenly one of them gets cut down 437 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 3: to twenty at the most important part of the year. 438 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 3: It's always an issue with Brad underwood teams emotional management. 439 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 3: There have been a lot of chaotic moments in the 440 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 3: last three years, and the idea of they get this 441 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 3: guy back who supposedly helps the defense but certainly doesn't 442 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 3: help the shooting problems is not something I think is 443 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 3: going to fix all for Illinois in this tournament. 444 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, the drama of the Illinois season continues. I'll be 445 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,640 Speaker 2: curious to see how it all plays out, and obviously 446 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 2: we'll be rooting for them since I invested futures wise, 447 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 2: I hope. 448 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 4: I'll throw in one point on the Purdue angle before 449 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 4: Edie became National Player of the Year, Edie dominant, build 450 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,159 Speaker 4: your whole team around him. Guy Matt Painter's mo was 451 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 4: early exits from the Big Ten tournament. Like first rounds, 452 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 4: it certainly gets to that second game and. 453 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: Then he's tossed. 454 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 4: So the number is so close for me to want 455 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 4: to go with Rutgers, and I just I know, obviously 456 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 4: it's purely a sprinkle, but with those two guys who 457 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 4: could potentially go off, and I think from a human 458 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 4: nature perspective, Purdue has bigger ambitions than. 459 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 1: Clearly dominating Rutgers again. 460 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 4: They like it would be the classic look ahead to 461 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 4: the next round situation, look ahead to March Madness, where 462 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 4: if Rutgers gets any early success and they start to 463 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 4: speed up that game and you know, build a two 464 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 4: possession leads something like that. Stranger things have happened, and 465 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 4: they've certainly happened to Matt Painter. I've seen him blow 466 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 4: it in tournament settings many times. I think I wouldn't 467 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 4: call it a perfect storm. But I think the opportunity 468 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 4: and the prices there five wins in five days is 469 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 4: too much. So maybe you just you know, take Rutgers 470 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,400 Speaker 4: against the spread against USC and then roll it into 471 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 4: a money line and see how that pays out for you. 472 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 4: But I don't think it's the craziest angle if you're 473 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 4: looking for something a little non traditional with this tournament. 474 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,719 Speaker 2: The other teams that we didn't touch on, looking at 475 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 2: the bracket, let's see we haven't touched on, well, Indiana 476 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 2: Oregon is a very interesting second round game winner. It 477 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 2: gets Michigan State. I guess one thing working against Michigan 478 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 2: State is that of Indiana wins that game, you're playing 479 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 2: your quarterfinal game against Indiana and Indianapolis. Just something to 480 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 2: keep in mind. Indiana just played Oregon really tough in Eugene. 481 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 2: They're playing their more ideal lineups down the stretch, so 482 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 2: and They've been playing very well as of late, but 483 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 2: Oregon also has been surging. They've won seventh straight, although 484 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 2: to be fair, couple in overtime, another by two against Iowa, 485 00:26:54,720 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 2: and schedule generally soft, but they're giving more minutes to 486 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 2: Evans finally over Angel Brandon Angel, and if you look 487 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 2: at the on off splits for Evans compared to Angel, 488 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:16,400 Speaker 2: they are stark. I mean, Angels arguably been the worst 489 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 2: player and Evans has been arguably their best all things considered, 490 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 2: especially defensively, An Angels defense is horrendous and Evans has 491 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: been amazing on that front, so that has kind of 492 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 2: raised their ceiling. And you also have Dana Altman, who 493 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 2: was always a good attorney, coach, tough prep, changes up 494 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 2: his defenses. 495 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:39,880 Speaker 3: So I agree. 496 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 2: I think Michigan State they do have like the psycho mentality, 497 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 2: and I you have Trey Hollman kind of leads. When 498 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 2: he was screaming in the face of who's he screaming 499 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 2: in the face of what was an IOWA player, he 500 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 2: reminded me, don't uh he he had he looked so 501 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 2: much like uh uh Marlowe from the wire? Can you 502 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 2: see that? Right? Do people say that they did okay. 503 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 2: I was like, holy wow, I thought my TV was. 504 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 2: It just gave me the same vibes of him yelling 505 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 2: at someone. And but they had that like like you said, 506 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 2: they're kind of like psychotic and they have that swagger. 507 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:34,440 Speaker 2: So in Indiana can be had in in transition, I 508 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,239 Speaker 2: think it would be up for that game. Oregon might 509 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 2: be a little tougher prep for Michigan State. You'd probably 510 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 2: see a lot of zone and in that game. So 511 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 2: I don't know if Oregon could be tricky. We've seen Oregon. 512 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 2: This Oregon team, they're they're very enigmatic. They they just 513 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 2: sometimes just hang around. They don't they never die, and 514 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 2: they'll be down and down and down, and then they 515 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 2: just they kind of hang around find a way. Shelstead's 516 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 2: been very clutch, but I think that they are better 517 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: with Evans. But in Indiana, Oregon is a very interesting game. 518 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 2: I don't I think I kind of lean Indiana in Indianapolis, 519 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,080 Speaker 2: but I don't have the strongest of convictions right now. 520 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 2: One of the teams I did show value in was Northwestern. 521 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: Believe it or not, they've been I got to give 522 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 2: credit again to Collins after the injuries that they've suffered, 523 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 2: They've still been playing really well. Somehow, they're two hundred 524 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 2: and fifty to one. I actually showed like a little 525 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 2: bit of value in that number, but they don't really 526 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 2: have any depth now without with their injuries. So I 527 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 2: wouldn't follow on anyone for throwing a little couch change 528 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 2: on Northwestern uglying up the games. But I can't get 529 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 2: their Minnesota. I'm shocked that they're here and not Nebraska, 530 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 2: and it's all because of that buzzer beater that they 531 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 2: had and Lincoln pretty wild. I don't see I would 532 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 2: need like a abds. They're two fifty to one. I 533 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 2: would need like thousand to one. I don't know. Same 534 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 2: with you. 535 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 3: You and the wildest long shot that I have just 536 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 3: a tiny interest in. How about yeah, Ran McCaffrey legacy 537 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 3: run here? 538 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 2: Oh man. 539 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 3: I mean, there's so many rumors that this guy is leaving. 540 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 3: He's shot him down, but I don't believe them for 541 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 3: a second. Talk about being the team that just kept 542 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 3: Nebraska out of this tournament. Nobody thought I was going 543 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 3: to get up for that game, and they just torched him. 544 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,959 Speaker 3: They were making shots early. It wasn't even competitive. 545 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 2: Look. 546 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 3: I like the fact that they're three point dependent. You know, 547 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 3: an Iowa offense can just hang one hundred on anybody. 548 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 3: I still wish they had a little resistance inside, but 549 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 3: on I in that first game, at least against Ohio 550 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 3: State as a spot where everyone's gonna think the Buckeyes 551 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 3: need this to get to the turn, and they just 552 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 3: get out played for forty minutes. Jake Diebler has nothing 553 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,719 Speaker 3: for the shooters, and all of a sudden we look 554 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 3: up and I was like, in a competitive game with 555 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,480 Speaker 3: Wisconsin that they shouldn't be in the in the second round. 556 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 2: Illinois Illinois, mean they play Illinois in the second round. 557 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 3: Oh, I'm looking at it wrong, You're right, which I 558 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 3: actually like more if they get to Illinois, to be honest, 559 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 3: because I think Wisconsin's just a lot more solid on 560 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 3: both ends than Illinois. 561 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, that. 562 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 3: Ohio States offense has been really good of late. 563 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 2: Their defense is lost, like lost right now, and I 564 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 2: could see I would beating them depending on the number 565 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 2: I could possibly get there. So yeah, that's all the 566 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 2: teams that we hit on. Calvary have any other thoughts 567 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 2: on a possible first round matchup or any anything else 568 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 2: here in the Big Ten. 569 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 4: The only other thing I can think of in terms 570 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 4: of the wired Big Ten crossover doppel gangers. I think 571 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 4: McNulty could play Dusty May. You know, maybe a younger McNulty, 572 00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 4: but definitely I think he's got the spirit. 573 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: But no, that's it. 574 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 4: I unloaded the clip on my Big Ten thoughts. Like 575 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 4: I said the last pieces, I'm just gonna sprinkle a 576 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 4: little bit on Rutgers and see if they're two NBA 577 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 4: players can just go. 578 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 3: On a run. 579 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 2: Dusty May is kind of two composed and clean cut 580 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 2: though for McNaulty. 581 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 1: Definitely sober McNulty to make that caveat. 582 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 2: That, the boozed up McNulty older now could probably play 583 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 2: Fran That's that's I don't hit that all right. Any 584 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 2: other final thoughts Gregor on first round matchups or just 585 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:40,920 Speaker 2: anything else in your beloved Big Ten. 586 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 3: No, I uh, I just I want to keep doubling 587 00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 3: trippling down Perdue. 588 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 2: Guys. 589 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 3: I'm telling you, I love this draw for them, and 590 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 3: I would like the teams you mentioned too if they 591 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 3: got the draw. But uh, just to push back on Calabres, 592 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 3: I'll take Braden Smith and Tray Coffin Wren head to 593 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 3: head with Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey done it a 594 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 3: couple of times already. It's the fun to think Rutgers, 595 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 3: but that it's layup lines as we've seen against the 596 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 3: Matt Payter offense twice already this year. So I just 597 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 3: I see such an advantage pathwise for that team. Maybe 598 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 3: I'm wrong, but it's one of my favorite pre tournament 599 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 3: beats for sure. 600 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 2: This week, the Rutgers defense is non existent. Bad bad. 601 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 2: Let's touch on some IVY League madness quickly. We have 602 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 2: four teams that make it. It's a simple bracket. This 603 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 2: will be played at Browns Campus. The four teams that 604 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 2: made it. Yale is the one, the two is Cornell. 605 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 2: They'll play the three Dartmouth surprise, the big greener here 606 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 2: with a remarkable turnaround season. And then the four seed 607 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 2: is Princeton, which will take on Yale. Yale is the 608 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 2: favorite and they're minus one sixty. Princeton is twelve to one, 609 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 2: Cornell is three to one, Dartmouth is six to one. 610 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 2: I could tell you from an odds perspective, I made it. 611 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,720 Speaker 2: Here's what I made. I made Yale minus one fifty, 612 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:12,399 Speaker 2: Dartmouth ten to one, Cornell three to one, Princeton four 613 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 2: to fourteen to one ish somewhere in those ballparks for 614 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 2: those teams. So I don't really see anything here. I 615 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 2: can tell you that the one thing I can tell 616 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 2: you that Dartmouth is kind of has some Michigan state 617 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 2: in them in that way more to way more extreme. 618 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 2: I think since February first, teams are shooting twenty two 619 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 2: percent from three against them. That is going to come 620 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 2: back to bite them. But they I got to give 621 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 2: credit to their entire staff. They made a key higher 622 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,359 Speaker 2: in the summer, changed their entire offensive identity. They've gone 623 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 2: from outside the top three hundred in adjust the tempo 624 00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 2: to inside the top twenty five. And yeah that they 625 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 2: they're here and IV madness for the first time in 626 00:34:54,719 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 2: program history. I could if I had a guess, like, 627 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 2: here's the thing that scares me about Yale. Yale is 628 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 2: clearly the best team, and I think their price is 629 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:10,360 Speaker 2: about fair. I hope that they get in to the 630 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 2: NCAA tournament because you know, I think that they have 631 00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 2: clearly have the biggest upside. Puliktas is a really good 632 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 2: player that is going to play professionally and can just 633 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 2: get red hot. The I guess Cornell has some upside too, 634 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,799 Speaker 2: and the term just because their offense is so flammable. 635 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 2: The thing that's the only thing that scares me with 636 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,360 Speaker 2: Yale is that their defense by design gives up a 637 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:40,160 Speaker 2: ton of threes and they're playing there's three teams in 638 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 2: this league that shoot a ton of threes that they're 639 00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 2: that are in this tournament with them, So that's the 640 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 2: one thing that would scare me. I mean, Cornell shoots 641 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 2: the three at a top fifteen rate nationally and a 642 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,320 Speaker 2: top they make them at a top thirty clip. Dartmouth 643 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 2: shoots the three at the thirty third highest rate, not 644 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 2: as good as a shooting team THEO they're around thirty 645 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,799 Speaker 2: four percent, one hundred and fiftieth in the country. And 646 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,200 Speaker 2: then Princeton they shoot the three also at a top 647 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 2: fifteen clip nationally, a little better at than Dartmouth, not 648 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 2: as good as Cornell at thirty six percent. So there's 649 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,760 Speaker 2: a little risk that you get three point variance. If 650 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:24,799 Speaker 2: I had a guess, I'm gonna say Calvaries tries to 651 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 2: talk everyone into Princeton, I'm out on them. They've been 652 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 2: so bad for so long, and every time they play Yale. 653 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,440 Speaker 2: This year, Yale just shoots sixty percent from two and 654 00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:38,640 Speaker 2: Princeton shoots twenty one percent and they'd have to go 655 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,239 Speaker 2: super nuclear from three. I get it like this. If 656 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 2: you wanted to buy Princeton, it's not for me, but Calvary's. 657 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,080 Speaker 2: I think the one team that really could beat Yale 658 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 2: is Cornell because their offense can go to totel like. 659 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,399 Speaker 2: They'd have to win, maybe eighty eight to eighty six, 660 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 2: something like that. I think the game in Yale they 661 00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 2: lost to Yell one hundred and three to eighty eight 662 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 2: at home, and then at Yea I lost ninety two 663 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 2: to eighty eight. That's the type of game they have 664 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 2: to play. 665 00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 5: At. 666 00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here, Calbary? So you're going to 667 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 2: try to tell the audience that at Princeton. 668 00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,560 Speaker 4: I'm gonna tap on the mic like I'm in front 669 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 4: of a congressional committee here. I am out on Princeton. 670 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 4: I've had it with them. I bought them early. 671 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,280 Speaker 1: I tried to stick with them through the IVY. 672 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,480 Speaker 4: They just do not have it in terms of being 673 00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,800 Speaker 4: able to win in any other way than just bombing 674 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 4: away from three to try to beat a top team 675 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:32,400 Speaker 4: and minus one sixty. 676 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,760 Speaker 1: I don't mind laying it. James Jones runs the IVY. 677 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,160 Speaker 4: Look at the last six seasons first or second place 678 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,120 Speaker 4: regular season, finishes three trips to the Big Dance. I 679 00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,440 Speaker 4: think this is his best post COVID offense. Elite shooting, 680 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 4: elite spacing. They run that four out one in offense, 681 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,600 Speaker 4: constant ball movement, and this offense goes nuclear when you 682 00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,239 Speaker 4: have really good shooters. Mbang at the point can facilitate 683 00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,879 Speaker 4: and Pluktas has an opportunity. If they can win this 684 00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 4: auto bid to the Big Dance, he'll be the first 685 00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 4: player to lead the IVY in scoring and go to 686 00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 4: the Big Dance, and over two decades. So this team 687 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,000 Speaker 4: is just phenomenal. And when you look at the three 688 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,560 Speaker 4: teams that are challenging them. Here in the four team 689 00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,880 Speaker 4: playoff two and oh sweep two and oh sweep two 690 00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 4: and oh sweep. 691 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,759 Speaker 1: Yes, there was a couple close ones and you know 692 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,319 Speaker 1: Dartmouth being right there. 693 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:16,239 Speaker 2: They lost by five. 694 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,160 Speaker 1: I think it was a one possession game of twenty 695 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:19,920 Speaker 1: seconds left. But suck you hit on it. 696 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,080 Speaker 4: Teams are shooting so poorly from three point range. The 697 00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 4: number one split since February first in three point shooting defense. 698 00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,359 Speaker 4: It's not because they're closing out on every shooter. They're 699 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,480 Speaker 4: just getting lucky. So I mean it's interesting at six 700 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,880 Speaker 4: to one the price, but I also think they're just 701 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 4: an uncharted territory here. David mcgauchlin did make that change 702 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,239 Speaker 4: to his offensive scheme, but they've never finished better than 703 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,920 Speaker 4: six in the eight and eight and he's beat Jones 704 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 4: once in eight years. So I just think when the 705 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,400 Speaker 4: rubber hits the road and there's that last TV timeout 706 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,359 Speaker 4: and there's some crunch time moments, Yale expects to take 707 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,480 Speaker 4: it to the next level. And I think there's a 708 00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,600 Speaker 4: little bit of we're just happy to be here from Dartmouth. 709 00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 4: So I'm going to use it as a parlay swedenear 710 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 4: tack on minus one fifty mins, well one sixty with 711 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,240 Speaker 4: the Bulldogs here. I think they're just absolutely the class 712 00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,000 Speaker 4: of the IVY. They have been all season, and I 713 00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,240 Speaker 4: think they're gonna get it done here. One final nugget 714 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,960 Speaker 4: in terms of playing at Browns Arena. When they played 715 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:11,960 Speaker 4: there this year, they shot forty four percent from three, 716 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,759 Speaker 4: so they're familiar with the rims, the bounces, they put 717 00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,440 Speaker 4: the ball on the hoop, So I'm on you. 718 00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,320 Speaker 2: Greg curious to get your thoughts here. You do agree 719 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:21,120 Speaker 2: with Mike. 720 00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,080 Speaker 3: I really am in alignment with both the you guys 721 00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,319 Speaker 3: and how you laid this out. I think I don't 722 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,920 Speaker 3: hate Yale at minus one sixty from a price standpoint, 723 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,480 Speaker 3: I feel like they're definitively the best team. You mentioned 724 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,600 Speaker 3: pool aktas he Rocks, but they've also got two other 725 00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 3: guys that are in the top three for IVY League 726 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:41,840 Speaker 3: Ken Palm Player of the Year. Like, they just have 727 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 3: the best players that are going to be on the 728 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,359 Speaker 3: court in pretty much all these games. Obviously, Zavian League 729 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,480 Speaker 3: can take over a game for Princeton, but as you 730 00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 3: guys both mentioned, we were on Princeton I think collectively 731 00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,600 Speaker 3: both times this season, and yeah, he is. 732 00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,640 Speaker 4: Sick mbang on Lee, He's he's probably gonna win his 733 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,280 Speaker 4: third streat Defensive Player of the Year as a point 734 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:06,320 Speaker 4: guard defensively, so yeah, just taking away Princeton's strength. 735 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 3: Yeah right, it's a horrible matchup. But yeah, the only 736 00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,920 Speaker 3: thing I would just float again my play here is Yale. 737 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,600 Speaker 3: But to me, if you want something other than Yale, 738 00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,120 Speaker 3: I would advocate for Cornell, as you mentioned, stuck to me, 739 00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,160 Speaker 3: I like that at three to one a lot more 740 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 3: than trying to talk yourself into Dartmouth. When I look 741 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 3: at Dartmouths stretch here, to me, it's entirely three point defense, 742 00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:30,680 Speaker 3: number one nationally in three point percentage defense since February first. 743 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,400 Speaker 3: That's kind of the entire story for me there. And 744 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,360 Speaker 3: their offense isn't great in the first place, but it 745 00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,440 Speaker 3: falls off a cliff away from home three hundred and 746 00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,799 Speaker 3: thirteenth nationally in an adjusted offensive efficiency in a way 747 00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,759 Speaker 3: or neutral. And I like Cornell. I mean, how can 748 00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 3: you not like the number one affect the field well 749 00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,640 Speaker 3: percentage in all of college basketball, Like, this is not 750 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,879 Speaker 3: a tournament you need to win five games to win, right, 751 00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:55,000 Speaker 3: It's just go nuclear for two. At three to one, 752 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,279 Speaker 3: I think that's a reasonable price if you buy that 753 00:40:58,360 --> 00:40:59,960 Speaker 3: Cornell's offense can hold up. 754 00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:00,080 Speaker 4: Well. 755 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,440 Speaker 3: They did play Yale close. I mean they lost by 756 00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 3: four at Yale, and that was a game they led 757 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,120 Speaker 3: by fourteen points in the first half. So to me, 758 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,160 Speaker 3: they split with Dartmouth. But in the one they lost 759 00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,280 Speaker 3: to Dartmouth, I believe they were three for twenty seven 760 00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,120 Speaker 3: from three in that game, which is just totally uncharacteristic 761 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 3: of this team. To me, it's got to be Yale 762 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:21,239 Speaker 3: or Cornell, But I would rather lay the number with 763 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:22,680 Speaker 3: Yale and just take the best team here. 764 00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, Cornell Dartmouth two teams that want to run. By 765 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:32,200 Speaker 2: the way, Cornell's transition d is so bad, so if 766 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:36,440 Speaker 2: they's that's what happened. That's part of what happened against 767 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,960 Speaker 2: Dartmouth in the season split. You mentioned the three point shooting. 768 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:44,280 Speaker 2: They got molly wopped in one of the games against Dartmouth. 769 00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:49,839 Speaker 2: What did they lose eighty eight to forty nine, And yeah, 770 00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:52,439 Speaker 2: part of that is Cornell went three to twenty seven 771 00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,479 Speaker 2: from three eleven percent. One of the best shooting teams 772 00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 2: in the country miss a lot of shots and they 773 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,359 Speaker 2: don't get offensive rebounds Cornell team, and then Dartmouth gets 774 00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,239 Speaker 2: out and runs. Both these teams will run HB a 775 00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:05,120 Speaker 2: fast paced game, but there's a lot of three point 776 00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:09,319 Speaker 2: banks in that game. But Dartmouth is certainly overdue to 777 00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,239 Speaker 2: get waxed in that department. And as you mentioned, their 778 00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,439 Speaker 2: offense is not as good away from home. So yeah, 779 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:19,400 Speaker 2: I think it looks here either Yale or Cornell you 780 00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,480 Speaker 2: gotta go Chalky. I think in the IVY this year 781 00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,759 Speaker 2: which means Princeton will put it all together and they're 782 00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,879 Speaker 2: finally going to go like fourteen to twenty from three 783 00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,960 Speaker 2: in both games. That's that's probably a lock, all right. 784 00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:37,440 Speaker 2: Moving on to the A ten Conference tournament. If you 785 00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 2: listen to the episode with Jim and I yesterday, we 786 00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:43,920 Speaker 2: talked about this a little bit. There was at the 787 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:48,200 Speaker 2: time we were recording up until this morning when I 788 00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,200 Speaker 2: put it in, I don't believe it's still there. Let 789 00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:55,000 Speaker 2: me double check. There was a Mia alma mater who 790 00:42:55,080 --> 00:43:01,120 Speaker 2: have never bet in the conference tournament and twenty years 791 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,000 Speaker 2: I don't even think I did. With Pop Pop spensive box. 792 00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:09,120 Speaker 2: There there was a fifty to one out there, and 793 00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,880 Speaker 2: let's see if it's still there. Was that fandal. I 794 00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,279 Speaker 2: doubt what it is, but maybe now it sound a 795 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,759 Speaker 2: thirty but fifty to one, and like Saint Joe's is 796 00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:22,479 Speaker 2: eight to one, they have to win the same amount 797 00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,600 Speaker 2: of games. GW gets George Mason in that they are 798 00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,080 Speaker 2: very vulnerable two seed because of the way that they play. 799 00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,239 Speaker 2: They always beat them twice. I couldn't believe that price discrepancy. 800 00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,359 Speaker 2: So even at thirty to one, I think it's worth 801 00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,960 Speaker 2: a sprinkle on GW if they just run it. Their 802 00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:39,879 Speaker 2: defense is very good. They run good stuff on offense 803 00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,440 Speaker 2: problems they can't shoot. But if they just run they 804 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,200 Speaker 2: get to play in DC. If they just run into 805 00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:50,680 Speaker 2: three games where they can actually hit some threes, they 806 00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,200 Speaker 2: can get to the finals here. They swax date in 807 00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,120 Speaker 2: earlier this year too, when they actually did make threes, 808 00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,799 Speaker 2: they could have beat Mason twice. And who knows what 809 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:02,000 Speaker 2: you're gonna get with Saint Joe's your beloved Hawks Calberys 810 00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:06,880 Speaker 2: who got waxed by LaSalle in the season finale. The 811 00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,560 Speaker 2: market loves Saint Jose. They're probably gonna bet Saint Jose 812 00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,880 Speaker 2: every game, and Saint Jose will be down sixteen to 813 00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 2: someone at one point, So I get the upside case 814 00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,719 Speaker 2: with Saint Jose. But VCU is the favorite here. This 815 00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:25,839 Speaker 2: tournament will start on Wednesday, the first round. I think 816 00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,640 Speaker 2: all these games until the semis are on USA Network, 817 00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:33,040 Speaker 2: So make sure that you find out where. It's this 818 00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:35,560 Speaker 2: time of the year where you gotta find where different 819 00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:40,560 Speaker 2: channels are and be familiar with that. VCU, Loyola Dayton, 820 00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,880 Speaker 2: and George Mason get double buys at the quarters. You 821 00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,600 Speaker 2: have three first round games and five other teams that 822 00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:51,400 Speaker 2: get buys into the second round. Calbreys, I know you 823 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,759 Speaker 2: are very in tune with the A ten. What are 824 00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:55,400 Speaker 2: you saying here? 825 00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,040 Speaker 1: Well, First, for Saint Jose, I think, uh bid. 826 00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,120 Speaker 4: The element was once they got to the locker room 827 00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:04,600 Speaker 4: against Lasal the Loyal of Chicago game was official and 828 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,839 Speaker 4: they were locked out of that double buy. 829 00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:09,040 Speaker 1: I think they mailed it in a little bit. 830 00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,040 Speaker 4: Should have been a part of the handicap, So, you know, 831 00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,480 Speaker 4: hand up on me giving that one out and them 832 00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:16,239 Speaker 4: getting waxed. But when I look at the overall price 833 00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,879 Speaker 4: this year, Dayton five to one, Saint Jose eight to one, 834 00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:22,000 Speaker 4: I'm interested. Let's start with Dayton. Dayton's high end is 835 00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:25,759 Speaker 4: clear in my opinion. They get wins over Yukon VCU Marquette. 836 00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,160 Speaker 4: They finish really strong, six and one straight up. They 837 00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:29,879 Speaker 4: shared the ball really well, they don't turn it over. 838 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,000 Speaker 4: They're super experienced, top fifteen and ken palm there. They 839 00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,080 Speaker 4: finish as the top team in the A ten in 840 00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:37,600 Speaker 4: terms of away from home rating, and the emergence of 841 00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,080 Speaker 4: Malachi Smith has been noteworthy. How about these splits January 842 00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,480 Speaker 4: in A ten play seven points per game, twenty nine 843 00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,040 Speaker 4: percent shooting from the floor his last seven games in 844 00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,040 Speaker 4: the conference thirteen points per game, forty eight percent shooting 845 00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,840 Speaker 4: from the floor. If he gives them that level, I 846 00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,440 Speaker 4: think it just it elevates not only you know, his 847 00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,719 Speaker 4: own stat line, but also his teammates because he's more 848 00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:58,280 Speaker 4: of a threat to put the ball in the basket 849 00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,200 Speaker 4: and to facilitate. Now the knock I think is pretty 850 00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,920 Speaker 4: simple in that Anthony Grant has been a major disappointment 851 00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,359 Speaker 4: in conference tournaments. You know, two years ago he took 852 00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,600 Speaker 4: them to the A ten Final before losing the VCU. 853 00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,840 Speaker 4: But outside of that, consistent early exit with the Flyers 854 00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,120 Speaker 4: and the Crimson Tide before that. So I think you're 855 00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:16,840 Speaker 4: seeing a little bit of that because realistically, this is 856 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,600 Speaker 4: one of the hottest teams and most talented teams in 857 00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 4: this league. So the fact that you're getting the five 858 00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,719 Speaker 4: to one, I still think there's value there. And then 859 00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,399 Speaker 4: Saint Joe's they've demonstrated similarly, you know, when they play 860 00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,680 Speaker 4: their best basketball. That win over Nova looks good, That 861 00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,520 Speaker 4: went over Texas Tech looks incredible. 862 00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:32,799 Speaker 1: They finished you. 863 00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:34,719 Speaker 4: Know, third in the conference in terms of RIM and 864 00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:38,560 Speaker 4: three point shot rate, So they understand the analytics of 865 00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,600 Speaker 4: modern college basketball. And I know they missed out on 866 00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,600 Speaker 4: the double by but lucky number six in this tournament. 867 00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,319 Speaker 4: Last year, Duquane makes a run from the six, you 868 00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,600 Speaker 4: know all the way you got. Richmond did the same 869 00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,160 Speaker 4: thing as the six in twenty twenty two. Saint Louis 870 00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,080 Speaker 4: did it as a six seed in twenty nineteen. Stranger 871 00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,440 Speaker 4: things have happened from this exact spot, you know, needing 872 00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,880 Speaker 4: to win one extra game to get it done. And 873 00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,480 Speaker 4: when I look at the potential for breakout stars, Saint 874 00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,560 Speaker 4: Jose really has three. 875 00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:05,440 Speaker 2: You know. 876 00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,279 Speaker 4: Eric Reynolds the second has twenty five plus in five 877 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,000 Speaker 4: games this year, Davia Brown twenty plus and ten games, 878 00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,960 Speaker 4: and then Rashier Fleming finally in the offseason developed three 879 00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,240 Speaker 4: point shot. He shooting over forty percent from long range. 880 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:17,439 Speaker 4: He can go for twenty and ten. 881 00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:18,440 Speaker 2: So they have it. 882 00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:21,120 Speaker 4: I've never been a huge fan of Billy Lang. I 883 00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,359 Speaker 4: think that he's underwhelmed me in some spots and just 884 00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,520 Speaker 4: not been consistent. But they've gotten hot and they've beaten 885 00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,000 Speaker 4: the top teams. They should have beat George Mason down 886 00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:30,760 Speaker 4: the stretch as well. That was a one point loss, 887 00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,839 Speaker 4: a heartbreaker to that Patriots team. So I've seen them 888 00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,400 Speaker 4: up against you know, the top teams, and also luckily 889 00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:38,759 Speaker 4: they're on the other side of the bracket VCU. I 890 00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,200 Speaker 4: was there in person on a Friday night, just dog 891 00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,279 Speaker 4: walked them on their home floor. That's the team that 892 00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,480 Speaker 4: I do not think that they can beat, regardless of 893 00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,399 Speaker 4: how they play out of their back court. But maybe 894 00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:49,000 Speaker 4: they'll get lucky and someone will snipe them off and 895 00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,160 Speaker 4: they don't have to beat them in the A ten 896 00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,560 Speaker 4: title game. So five to one on the Flyers, eight 897 00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,200 Speaker 4: to one on the Hawks, those are my plays. 898 00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,839 Speaker 2: You just can't quit Saint Joe's. They gotta get They 899 00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:00,760 Speaker 2: might have to get by the Jack out of Lasal 900 00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,680 Speaker 2: again and then don't be farewell tour in that second round. 901 00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:07,920 Speaker 2: I get the upside case at Saint Chose, but I 902 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,399 Speaker 2: don't trust their coach, and there's partly a reason why 903 00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,360 Speaker 2: this team, in all this talent, finished sixth in the 904 00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:16,239 Speaker 2: league in the down year for the A ten. 905 00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:22,839 Speaker 4: So yeah, but I would just it's intoxicating on the 906 00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,759 Speaker 4: top end, like how did they beat Texas Tech? Like 907 00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,480 Speaker 4: even the Nova team that's been on the bubble, and 908 00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:30,759 Speaker 4: you know, they probably should fire their coach. That's an 909 00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:35,360 Speaker 4: impressive win. I still just view this as in Eric Reynolds, 910 00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:37,319 Speaker 4: I need him for forty eight hours. I need him 911 00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,399 Speaker 4: to give me fifty points for forty eight hours, and 912 00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:41,879 Speaker 4: I think he's capable of doing it. And also, there's 913 00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,280 Speaker 4: just so much turmoil. You could see so many upsets 914 00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:46,480 Speaker 4: that all of a sudden, your path doesn't look exactly 915 00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:48,600 Speaker 4: the same and as chalky as it does before these 916 00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,280 Speaker 4: games start to be played. So anything can happen, including 917 00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,280 Speaker 4: not catching Lasal for the fourth time this season. 918 00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:58,160 Speaker 2: Yes, that would be a fourth Big Five meeting between 919 00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:03,799 Speaker 2: those two schools. Maybe we get GW Saint Jose Semis, 920 00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:09,080 Speaker 2: which are my two alma maters. Greg, What are you 921 00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:09,520 Speaker 2: saying here? 922 00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:11,719 Speaker 3: First of all, I'm excited for this term, and this 923 00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,120 Speaker 3: is one of my favorite leagues in terms of available odds. Here, 924 00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,759 Speaker 3: I think there's quite a few teams with upside that 925 00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,440 Speaker 3: you could talk yourself into. I am with Calbreast that 926 00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,600 Speaker 3: I'm going to have a Dayton five to one ticket here. 927 00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:26,080 Speaker 3: I can't get Maui Dayton out of my head. I 928 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,520 Speaker 3: mean that team was awesome for all three games, even 929 00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:31,000 Speaker 3: in the game that they lost to Iowa State. Like 930 00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,640 Speaker 3: I just see a team that can compete with the 931 00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,799 Speaker 3: very best teams in the country. They're ninth nationally in 932 00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:39,680 Speaker 3: one of our favorite metrics, the opponent adjust rating at 933 00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:42,359 Speaker 3: evanmeia dot com. It's a big game team that under 934 00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,680 Speaker 3: the bright lights has been stellar even in the Marquette 935 00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,560 Speaker 3: win pretty consistently and at a high volume for a 936 00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,879 Speaker 3: team in a league like the A ten. So there's 937 00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:51,480 Speaker 3: a world they flip a switch. I mean they just 938 00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,040 Speaker 3: did it at VCU final game of the regular season, 939 00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,560 Speaker 3: and they just run through this. I would not be 940 00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,600 Speaker 3: surprised at all in terms of other players. This is one. 941 00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:01,279 Speaker 3: I'm gonna have two plays on the card for me. 942 00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,319 Speaker 3: I'm gonna take a shot at Saint Louis twenty to one. 943 00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,360 Speaker 3: First off, just the idea of shirts sort of the 944 00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:11,719 Speaker 3: year after the year, right. He was the hot name 945 00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,400 Speaker 3: last cycle, and a team that a lot of people 946 00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,279 Speaker 3: thought could end up being a Darling Cinderella ended up 947 00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,400 Speaker 3: falling short of even having a chance. But you know, 948 00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:23,719 Speaker 3: you have Robbiavila, you have Swape Gibson. Jimmerson's good talk 949 00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:25,560 Speaker 3: about a team with different guys that could sort of 950 00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,279 Speaker 3: take over and win you a game. I believe in 951 00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,879 Speaker 3: the talent of this team to that point, I really 952 00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,520 Speaker 3: like their path. They're gonna get Davidson A Richmond around 953 00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,120 Speaker 3: one to a zero against those teams. Then you're into 954 00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:39,280 Speaker 3: the quarterfinal game where they would get loyal to Chicago, 955 00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:43,080 Speaker 3: who they just played Loyola when fully healthy, remember all 956 00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:45,799 Speaker 3: the injury issues loyal that went through ten days ago, 957 00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:48,640 Speaker 3: smack them, beat them by thirty one points. I think 958 00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,600 Speaker 3: it's a good matchup if you get there. Then all 959 00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,400 Speaker 3: of a sudden you look forward. Okay, somebody's got to 960 00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:58,320 Speaker 3: take down VCU. Only three teams did during the regular season. 961 00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,520 Speaker 3: Saint Louis was one of them. Overall, I think they've 962 00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,680 Speaker 3: played better basketball for a month. They finished the year 963 00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:05,960 Speaker 3: four and one out right, that's second in the A ten. 964 00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,440 Speaker 3: That's ahead of everybody that's not BCU. And during that stretch, 965 00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:11,480 Speaker 3: a lot of times we see like end of season 966 00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:14,399 Speaker 3: turnarounds that are dependent on Hey, the other teams went 967 00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:17,280 Speaker 3: cold from three against them. Not the case here. Teams 968 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:19,480 Speaker 3: have been making thirty seven percent from three and that 969 00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:21,560 Speaker 3: four to one stretch down the season, and they're still 970 00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:24,520 Speaker 3: winning these games and creating separation. In fact, the only 971 00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,080 Speaker 3: loss in that five game stretch to end of the 972 00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,080 Speaker 3: year was two Dayton at Dayton, a game where Saint 973 00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:32,239 Speaker 3: Louis led by fifteen points at half. I think they've 974 00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:34,200 Speaker 3: been a different team for a couple of weeks. I 975 00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,759 Speaker 3: like their spot in this bracket, and at twenty to one, 976 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,680 Speaker 3: to me, that's valued as the seventh most likely champion 977 00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:42,640 Speaker 3: in this league. I think there's a lot of upside 978 00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:43,240 Speaker 3: at that number. 979 00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:46,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the case that Jim made as well when 980 00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,560 Speaker 2: we talked about the A ten in part seven. If 981 00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:52,759 Speaker 2: you haven't listened to that either depth a little bit 982 00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:55,279 Speaker 2: of a concern, but that can get overplayed in a 983 00:51:56,360 --> 00:52:00,480 Speaker 2: setting like this. And yeah, they definitely have that high 984 00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:02,960 Speaker 2: in town if they're clicking, and the coaching too, that 985 00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:08,759 Speaker 2: you have to respect. BCU is probably on the best day, 986 00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:12,040 Speaker 2: the best team, and the team that I think, just 987 00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,880 Speaker 2: given their style, could make a run of the second weekend, 988 00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:16,759 Speaker 2: the most likely to make a run. But I just 989 00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,279 Speaker 2: don't see any value in them as a favorite, an 990 00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:22,200 Speaker 2: actual odds on favorite to win this tournament. So I 991 00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,480 Speaker 2: think you want to look elsewhere in the A ten. 992 00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,120 Speaker 2: I made the case for GW. Jim and Greg made 993 00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:33,279 Speaker 2: the case for Saint Louis calvarys is hoping Lesat doesn't 994 00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:35,080 Speaker 2: ruin his dreams of getting at least one team to 995 00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:38,920 Speaker 2: the semi with Saint chose En Dayton. Calbrity's any other 996 00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:40,960 Speaker 2: thoughts on first round matchup or anything else in the 997 00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:41,319 Speaker 2: A ten. 998 00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:44,520 Speaker 1: I just think there's potential for chaos. 999 00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:48,480 Speaker 4: I think seeing Dayton knockoff VCU there, you know, last Friday, 1000 00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,000 Speaker 4: I think demonstrates that VC is a. 1001 00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:51,640 Speaker 1: Very good team. 1002 00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:54,000 Speaker 4: They're going to get into the tournament as at large. Well, 1003 00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:57,440 Speaker 4: we'll see where they land exactly, but I just don't 1004 00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,880 Speaker 4: see them as the kind of team that should be 1005 00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:03,320 Speaker 4: inhibitively priced. I still you this as wide open. Certainly 1006 00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:04,839 Speaker 4: at fifty to one, I think I would have tailed 1007 00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:06,560 Speaker 4: you as well stuck. And if it does end up 1008 00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:08,920 Speaker 4: being GW against Saint Jose, they're going to have to. 1009 00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:12,720 Speaker 2: Have a head to head bet. Speaking of headhead, now, Grega, 1010 00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:17,359 Speaker 2: now the head to headcount. I a Duke sweatshirt as 1011 00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:21,680 Speaker 2: of now after that long run in the second half. Congrats, 1012 00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:24,360 Speaker 2: I'm out of Illinois shirt and you're up to a 1013 00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:29,319 Speaker 2: Duke sweatshirt. What are your what's your guy's b yu bet? 1014 00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:31,640 Speaker 2: You have something with b au right, it's. 1015 00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,240 Speaker 1: It's already in the mail or did you get it already? 1016 00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,799 Speaker 3: Not there yet, but it'll be here by conference tournament time. 1017 00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:40,000 Speaker 3: Don't get me on the big twelve pod stuck, but 1018 00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:41,000 Speaker 3: we're back in the coos. 1019 00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,520 Speaker 2: March is the best month of the year, not just 1020 00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:47,240 Speaker 2: for sports, but also forgetting the best deal on Action Pro. 1021 00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:49,840 Speaker 2: You can get Action Pro for just over five dollars 1022 00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:53,920 Speaker 2: a month for the entire year. End for the NCAA tournament, 1023 00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:58,520 Speaker 2: you'll get Sean Krener's bracket simulations, Nick Giffin's player props, 1024 00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:02,800 Speaker 2: which are an auto must follow and take care my 1025 00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,239 Speaker 2: picks thirty minutes before they go out to everyone else. 1026 00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:09,640 Speaker 2: Go to actionnetwork dot com slash March now to get 1027 00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:13,840 Speaker 2: on board. All right, we have two final leagues to 1028 00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,280 Speaker 2: get to. We'll just get your quick thoughts on these 1029 00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:20,520 Speaker 2: two calgaries. Let's start with the SWACK, which will be 1030 00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:28,600 Speaker 2: in College Park, Georgia between March eleventh and fifteenth. The 1031 00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,279 Speaker 2: top ten teams Mega. I thought, if there's an eight team, 1032 00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:34,480 Speaker 2: then it used to be eight. Got a swoard used 1033 00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,399 Speaker 2: to be eight? Let's see, yeah, he used to be eight. 1034 00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:41,040 Speaker 2: I guess they expanded it this year swack was always eight. 1035 00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,560 Speaker 2: Pine Bluff sadly didn't make it in your beloved Delta 1036 00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:49,359 Speaker 2: Devil's Mississippi Valley State also did not there are now 1037 00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,400 Speaker 2: this is a new format. Six teams that get a bye, 1038 00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,680 Speaker 2: and then four teams will play in the first round. 1039 00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:59,520 Speaker 2: Grambling takes on Alabama A and M, and Florida A 1040 00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,760 Speaker 2: and M will take. 1041 00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:03,120 Speaker 3: On Prairie View. 1042 00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:08,160 Speaker 2: I have absolutely no idea when it comes to the 1043 00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:14,520 Speaker 2: swack this year. I guess my pick is Jackson State. 1044 00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:15,920 Speaker 2: I think Jackson State's gonna win it, and you can 1045 00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:18,719 Speaker 2: get them like close to three to one. But I 1046 00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,000 Speaker 2: don't have a great feel on the slack This year. 1047 00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:26,800 Speaker 2: Southern is the favorite. They're plus one sixty five. Jackson 1048 00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:29,600 Speaker 2: State the two seed is like I mentioned about three 1049 00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:33,239 Speaker 2: to one, but Dune Cookman they're the three seed there 1050 00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:37,000 Speaker 2: plus six fifty, Alabama State plus seven fifty as well 1051 00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:41,560 Speaker 2: as Texas Southern. And then you start to get in 1052 00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:45,640 Speaker 2: two more longer shots. Alcorn State twelve to one, Florida 1053 00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:48,919 Speaker 2: A and M sixteen to one, Grambling thirty to one, 1054 00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:52,759 Speaker 2: Alabama A and M and Prairie View. I don't think 1055 00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:54,920 Speaker 2: have any shot, but who knows. In the swack. But 1056 00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,120 Speaker 2: they're two fifty to one each. We got some swackhin 1057 00:55:58,600 --> 00:55:59,720 Speaker 2: Calvary's what's the player? 1058 00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:03,200 Speaker 4: Well, first criminal that the Golden Lions and Delta Devils 1059 00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:03,760 Speaker 4: are not included. 1060 00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:05,960 Speaker 1: You expand a ten. Just give me the whole damn thing. 1061 00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,759 Speaker 4: It's you know, they'll be getting my strongly worded letter 1062 00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:09,319 Speaker 4: very soon. 1063 00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:11,640 Speaker 1: This is the bottom of the barrel. In college hoops. 1064 00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:13,879 Speaker 1: The offense across the board is just about as ugly 1065 00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:15,560 Speaker 1: as it comes. No one can shoot from distance. 1066 00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:18,960 Speaker 4: It's like watching people shoot those overinflated rubber basketballs at 1067 00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:20,480 Speaker 4: the carnival on double rims. 1068 00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:22,759 Speaker 1: None of them are going down except for Florida A 1069 00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:22,960 Speaker 1: and M. 1070 00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:24,840 Speaker 4: They're the only team in the league that has a 1071 00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,600 Speaker 4: pulse from long range, but they have a crippling turnover problem. 1072 00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:29,520 Speaker 4: They give it away on nineteen percent of their possessions, 1073 00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:32,600 Speaker 4: so they can't even keep the ball long enough to shoot. Southern, 1074 00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:34,720 Speaker 4: as you mentioned, is the favorite here. They went fourteen 1075 00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,319 Speaker 4: and two. They cruised through conference play. The Jags only 1076 00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:40,240 Speaker 4: two losses, both came on the road by a single point. 1077 00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:43,880 Speaker 4: But my pick is the second team in this you know, 1078 00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,120 Speaker 4: pecking order in terms of their price, it's double the 1079 00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:48,720 Speaker 4: price of Southern and that's Jackson State at plus three twenty. 1080 00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:49,960 Speaker 2: I won the same page. 1081 00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:52,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, they're coached up by the Native son, Moe Williams. 1082 00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,319 Speaker 4: He you know, played high school ball and Jackson. He 1083 00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,400 Speaker 4: also played in the NBA for fifteen years. At one 1084 00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,840 Speaker 4: point he was the robin to Lebron's batman in Cleveland. 1085 00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:03,279 Speaker 4: And this team, it really came together late. They went 1086 00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,239 Speaker 4: nine and three down the stretch. They took Southern to 1087 00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:08,160 Speaker 4: ot at their place. They played great team basketball. All 1088 00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:10,920 Speaker 4: five starters average double digits. They get to the line 1089 00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:14,000 Speaker 4: a ton Svancouver al timer name a freshman. 1090 00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:14,920 Speaker 1: He comes off the bench. 1091 00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:17,919 Speaker 4: He's given them double digits multiple times in the last 1092 00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:20,360 Speaker 4: two weeks, so I view him as a little bit 1093 00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,800 Speaker 4: of a shot in the arm. Offensively, they'll throw zone 1094 00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:24,920 Speaker 4: in you. They play zone nearly twenty percent at the time, 1095 00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,240 Speaker 4: and they're kind of effective at it, seventy fifth in 1096 00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:30,600 Speaker 4: terms of synergies rating for zone defense. But Dayshun Ruffin 1097 00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:31,960 Speaker 4: is the key. He can go out and give you 1098 00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,200 Speaker 4: ten assists. He can knock down three or four triples. 1099 00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:36,440 Speaker 4: He's not always a consistent scorer, but if he has 1100 00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,320 Speaker 4: a good week, I see Jackson State winning this whole thing. 1101 00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:42,880 Speaker 4: Insane factoid on Jackson State, they did not play a 1102 00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:46,680 Speaker 4: home game until January eleventh. That's how many paycheck games 1103 00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:49,440 Speaker 4: and neutral floor games they played. So the fact that 1104 00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:51,880 Speaker 4: it all came together late is not that crazy. And 1105 00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,360 Speaker 4: then when you talk about the path likely fam You, Bethune, 1106 00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:57,640 Speaker 4: Cookman and Southern they were swept by fam You, but 1107 00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:00,400 Speaker 4: as I mentioned, they have such problems with turnout. They 1108 00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:02,880 Speaker 4: were even in one game and actually beat Jackson State 1109 00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:04,880 Speaker 4: in the turnover margin and the other I think the 1110 00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:08,240 Speaker 4: Rattlers will get bit pun intended on that they swept 1111 00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:10,280 Speaker 4: between Cookman and as I mentioned, they lost to Southern 1112 00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:12,520 Speaker 4: OT in a great game. So I think at the 1113 00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:14,480 Speaker 4: end this comes down to price. I think they're very 1114 00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:16,800 Speaker 4: close to the Southern team, so plus three twenties enough 1115 00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:17,600 Speaker 4: for me to pull the trigger. 1116 00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,960 Speaker 2: All right, good stuff in swactionin I'm agreeing with you there. 1117 00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:28,440 Speaker 2: Let's talk our final, our thirty first conference tournament that 1118 00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:32,720 Speaker 2: we'll preview the MEAC, which will take place in Norfolk 1119 00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:37,400 Speaker 2: on between March twelfth and fifteenth. This is your basic 1120 00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:44,840 Speaker 2: eighteam bracket. Norfolk State is the one seed. They are 1121 00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:49,560 Speaker 2: ads on favorites twin The minus won ten to win 1122 00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:52,640 Speaker 2: the automatic bid from the MEAC. The two seed is 1123 00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:57,560 Speaker 2: South Carolina State. They are plus one forty. They come 1124 00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:00,480 Speaker 2: in as the hottest team in the league. They have 1125 00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:06,600 Speaker 2: won nine straight, including a game against Atlantic Christian in 1126 00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,720 Speaker 2: the middle of league play. I guess the breakup what 1127 00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:13,080 Speaker 2: would have been a long break. They there are two 1128 00:59:13,080 --> 00:59:15,959 Speaker 2: games against Norfolk, for what it's worth, were very good 1129 00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,840 Speaker 2: and highly competitive right down the one went to overtime. 1130 00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,880 Speaker 2: They won the other one by three, which was after 1131 00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:25,240 Speaker 2: a foul with like one second ago. Games could have 1132 00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:27,360 Speaker 2: went either way. But they come in as the hottest 1133 00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,280 Speaker 2: team in the league, and then you just get into 1134 00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:33,760 Speaker 2: it goes right to long shots, like everyone is just 1135 00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:36,920 Speaker 2: very erratic and who knows what you're going to get. 1136 00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:40,680 Speaker 2: On a nightly basis between Howard n C, Central Delaware State, 1137 00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:46,800 Speaker 2: all those teams are seventeen to one. Morgan State, Coppin State, 1138 00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:53,280 Speaker 2: and Eastern Shore are really really bad. Morgan State not 1139 00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:56,480 Speaker 2: as bad, they're forty five to one, but Coppin and Maryland, 1140 00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:59,400 Speaker 2: Eastern or Shore you can get it two fifty to 1141 00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:04,000 Speaker 2: one in a Bay sick eighteen format. That's pretty much 1142 01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:08,560 Speaker 2: all you need to know. Conference State has probably the 1143 01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:13,560 Speaker 2: worst offense in the country, and Maryland Eastern Shore is 1144 01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,200 Speaker 2: one of the five worst teams in the country. So 1145 01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:20,120 Speaker 2: it's hard to imagine either one of those teams winning this. 1146 01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:24,160 Speaker 2: But it is the MEAC and it's just three games 1147 01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:28,000 Speaker 2: you gotta win. Norfolk State has the best offense in 1148 01:00:28,080 --> 01:00:33,080 Speaker 2: early South Carolina State is the best defense. Calgary's where 1149 01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:37,640 Speaker 2: are you going? In the usually pretty wild MEAC. 1150 01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:40,760 Speaker 4: So I just said the Swack was the bottom of 1151 01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:42,720 Speaker 4: the barrel. I would never say that about the MIAC 1152 01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:45,400 Speaker 4: because they are home to the defending c champs. 1153 01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:46,360 Speaker 1: That's Norfolk State. 1154 01:00:46,480 --> 01:00:48,600 Speaker 4: They're plus one twenty five to win this tournament, and 1155 01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:51,520 Speaker 4: I'm interested for a long list of reasons that I'll 1156 01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:51,919 Speaker 4: get into. 1157 01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:54,600 Speaker 1: But I also like Delaware State at seventeen to one. 1158 01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:55,320 Speaker 1: They're interesting. 1159 01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:57,560 Speaker 4: But let's look at the Spartans for a second. Once 1160 01:00:57,560 --> 01:00:59,880 Speaker 4: Conference played again, they either won every single game or 1161 01:01:00,040 --> 01:01:02,520 Speaker 4: lost by four points or less. They stumbled a bit 1162 01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:04,919 Speaker 4: down the stretch, but teams in the past three weeks 1163 01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,440 Speaker 4: shot forty percent from long range against them, so I 1164 01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:09,240 Speaker 4: think they're due for a little bit of three point 1165 01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,560 Speaker 4: variants on that end to go in their favor. They 1166 01:01:11,560 --> 01:01:13,640 Speaker 4: went eleven and one straight up on their home floor. 1167 01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:16,480 Speaker 4: They get this entire tournament on their home floor. Eastern 1168 01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:19,560 Speaker 4: Shores up first. They beat him by twelve at Eastern 1169 01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:22,040 Speaker 4: Shores Place twenty two at home. Not worried about them 1170 01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:24,720 Speaker 4: Howard or Morgan State. In the second game, they smoked 1171 01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:27,920 Speaker 4: Howard twice, which is nice because Howard has been the 1172 01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:29,640 Speaker 4: thorn in their side in this tournament. They knocked him 1173 01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:32,600 Speaker 4: out of the last two MIAC tournaments. On their home floor, 1174 01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:35,720 Speaker 4: Morgan State upset them, but once again, the Bear shot 1175 01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,120 Speaker 4: forty seven percent from three point range. They're outside the 1176 01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:40,440 Speaker 4: top three hundred and three point accuracy. So it's just 1177 01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:42,720 Speaker 4: one of those lucky games. After that, though, with South 1178 01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:45,720 Speaker 4: Carolina State or Delaware State, they were in two battles 1179 01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:47,360 Speaker 4: with South Carolina State which they split. 1180 01:01:47,600 --> 01:01:49,880 Speaker 1: Delaware State they completely handled, but. 1181 01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:52,680 Speaker 4: Delaware State split with you South Carolina State, So I 1182 01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:54,480 Speaker 4: think that's more of a coin flip and who gets 1183 01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:56,880 Speaker 4: out of there. And as they said at seventeen to one, 1184 01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,280 Speaker 4: I think because of their backcourt, they could get Red 1185 01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:02,600 Speaker 4: Hot Smith, a Philly kid, went out to Bishop McDevitt 1186 01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,760 Speaker 4: and then d two Westchester. He ends up landing at 1187 01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,960 Speaker 4: Delaware State, and he has been a flamethrower from deep 1188 01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:11,760 Speaker 4: thirty seven percent from long range eighteen three and three 1189 01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:14,720 Speaker 4: per game. And when you you know, pair him up 1190 01:02:14,760 --> 01:02:18,120 Speaker 4: with Martees Robinson. Really interesting team that plays fast and 1191 01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:20,960 Speaker 4: can score. Fundamentally, they're all over the place in terms 1192 01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,160 Speaker 4: of turnovers, rebounds, defense. They don't bring a lot to 1193 01:02:23,240 --> 01:02:25,000 Speaker 4: the table, but just in terms of putting the ball 1194 01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:26,960 Speaker 4: in the basket, you could do worse than the Hornets 1195 01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:29,840 Speaker 4: at seventeen to one. Back to Norfolk State for a second. 1196 01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:31,600 Speaker 4: Brian Moore junior, he's going to be in the running 1197 01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:32,880 Speaker 4: to be the player of the year in this conference. 1198 01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:35,440 Speaker 4: He's an awesome combo guard nineteen a game and he 1199 01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:38,280 Speaker 4: can actually shoot from downtown. Talking to these two conferences, 1200 01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:41,240 Speaker 4: nobody can shoot. He makes forty two percent of his triples. 1201 01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:43,880 Speaker 4: But Robert Jones knows that the rest of the team 1202 01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:47,160 Speaker 4: cannot shoot, so they focus, they hunt those two pointers. 1203 01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:49,560 Speaker 4: It's why they're twenty second in the country in terms 1204 01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:52,680 Speaker 4: of shooting percentage overall because they take like fifteen threes 1205 01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:54,800 Speaker 4: that's it for the entire game, So most of them 1206 01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:57,160 Speaker 4: are being taken by Moore Junior, which is fine, but 1207 01:02:57,240 --> 01:02:59,440 Speaker 4: the rest of the time they're attacking the rim. They 1208 01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:01,800 Speaker 4: get to the line a lot, and as I laid out, 1209 01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:03,680 Speaker 4: you know, this is a top team on their world. 1210 01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:04,480 Speaker 1: We know how to win. 1211 01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:08,440 Speaker 4: Finally, in terms of what they do defensively, they play 1212 01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:10,680 Speaker 4: at the seventeenth highest clip in terms of rolling out 1213 01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:13,120 Speaker 4: his own defense in the country, and for the majority 1214 01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,800 Speaker 4: of the season they didn't get burned. I'm really hoping here. 1215 01:03:15,800 --> 01:03:17,560 Speaker 4: I gotta hold my breath a little bit because I 1216 01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:20,080 Speaker 4: think Jones is just stubborn and he's gonna stick with it. 1217 01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:22,280 Speaker 4: I mean, this is his twelfth year leading the Spartans. 1218 01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:24,560 Speaker 4: He's a three time coach of the Year in this conference. 1219 01:03:24,560 --> 01:03:26,439 Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to change his stripes now, 1220 01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:28,560 Speaker 4: but he's just going to say, beat me from long range. 1221 01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:30,680 Speaker 4: And a lot of these teams aren't capable. They have 1222 01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:32,240 Speaker 4: been in the last two weeks a little bit of 1223 01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:34,120 Speaker 4: a mini skid lead in the season. They lost too 1224 01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:36,960 Speaker 4: in their last four games. But I think it'll return 1225 01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:39,120 Speaker 4: to the mean and the Spartans will get back to 1226 01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:39,720 Speaker 4: the big dance. 1227 01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:45,440 Speaker 2: I pick South Carolina State, but that was a great breakdown. 1228 01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:49,440 Speaker 2: I'm actually excited to watch A dollar of State has 1229 01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:51,320 Speaker 2: been fun to watch. I've watched some of their games 1230 01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:55,040 Speaker 2: this year, so yeah, they can certainly get hot. I'm 1231 01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:56,840 Speaker 2: going with South Carolina State to get it done, but 1232 01:03:58,200 --> 01:03:59,560 Speaker 2: I hope we do get a South klint of State 1233 01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:02,960 Speaker 2: Norfolk rematch in the title game. I did promise everyone 1234 01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:07,400 Speaker 2: a quick look at the AAC with the brackets and 1235 01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:09,760 Speaker 2: odds out. I ended up playing U A B plus 1236 01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:14,439 Speaker 2: seven fifty North Texas opened plus A plus two hundred. 1237 01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:17,440 Speaker 2: We Jim and I talked about this. Yes, I think 1238 01:04:17,440 --> 01:04:19,320 Speaker 2: North Texas the best shot to be Memphis because they'll 1239 01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:23,080 Speaker 2: slow the game down. UAB just can't get stops, and 1240 01:04:23,720 --> 01:04:25,600 Speaker 2: Memphis can play their game and they're just a little 1241 01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:29,160 Speaker 2: bit more talented. They swept U A B during the 1242 01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:32,200 Speaker 2: regular season, but Memphis could get picked off before the finals. 1243 01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:34,080 Speaker 2: We saw that last year. They're the team that this 1244 01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:36,120 Speaker 2: isn't a team that's not prone to upsets. They're already 1245 01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,320 Speaker 2: in the tournament. They can get picked off. Who knows 1246 01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:40,600 Speaker 2: which Dot State or Florida Atlantic or TU Lane in 1247 01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,480 Speaker 2: their zone. The price discrepancy between you A B and 1248 01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:45,680 Speaker 2: North Texas was just too much for me. That's a 1249 01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:47,800 Speaker 2: both teams win that's a that's basically a coin flip 1250 01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:51,040 Speaker 2: game to me. In both games this regular season were 1251 01:04:51,080 --> 01:04:54,880 Speaker 2: coin flips. Uab's defense has been markedly worse than last year, 1252 01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:56,200 Speaker 2: but it's basically the same team, and by the way, 1253 01:04:56,240 --> 01:05:00,400 Speaker 2: the same team last year won this tournament. They can 1254 01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:03,280 Speaker 2: they lock in and play defense. They have arguably one 1255 01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:09,280 Speaker 2: of the best players in the tournament in Big Yaks. 1256 01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:12,240 Speaker 2: I think he's one of what is he one of 1257 01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:16,160 Speaker 2: two players in the country. They think he's one of 1258 01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:17,880 Speaker 2: two players in the country to lead their team in 1259 01:05:17,960 --> 01:05:20,800 Speaker 2: all five stat categories. I think it's him and Cooper 1260 01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:30,000 Speaker 2: Flag and he's one of two players averaging fifteen, ten 1261 01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:33,320 Speaker 2: and three. The other is Broom. Those are the two 1262 01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:36,800 Speaker 2: Player the Year candidates among the most like if you 1263 01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:41,520 Speaker 2: look at Evan Meya, the most like indispensable players in 1264 01:05:41,560 --> 01:05:49,440 Speaker 2: the country. I think Big Yaks Lindeborg is sixth and 1265 01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:52,640 Speaker 2: in both games against Memphis he was in major foul trouble. 1266 01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:54,600 Speaker 2: He picked up his fourth with like eighteen to go 1267 01:05:55,040 --> 01:05:57,600 Speaker 2: in their home game. Part of that is the physicality 1268 01:05:57,640 --> 01:06:00,240 Speaker 2: of danger. So if it is you abe Memphis, they'll 1269 01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:02,600 Speaker 2: have to get a decent whistle. But I couldn't get 1270 01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:05,160 Speaker 2: there with a discrepancy. Now, I will say East Carolina 1271 01:06:05,160 --> 01:06:07,600 Speaker 2: and UTSA, the winner of that game won't be easy, 1272 01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:10,720 Speaker 2: and they both profile as like interesting long shots. Like 1273 01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:14,360 Speaker 2: I thought about UTSA one hundred to one, they just 1274 01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:17,320 Speaker 2: they should their way under seated. They blow so many 1275 01:06:17,440 --> 01:06:19,680 Speaker 2: leads this year it's incredible. I mean they'd be up. 1276 01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:20,520 Speaker 2: They've won like. 1277 01:06:20,440 --> 01:06:22,120 Speaker 3: Twenty point leads up with eight to go. 1278 01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:25,240 Speaker 2: They had complete meltdowns in the final minute, which is 1279 01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:26,680 Speaker 2: crazy because they don't turn it over and they're good 1280 01:06:26,680 --> 01:06:30,120 Speaker 2: at the foul line. But they're interesting. East Carolina also 1281 01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:33,760 Speaker 2: has a ton of talent and upside. The problem is 1282 01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,080 Speaker 2: UTSA lost their center to an injury earli in the year, 1283 01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:39,880 Speaker 2: which really capped their upside. Lindenboorg should just eat them 1284 01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:43,880 Speaker 2: up inside. So I couldn't quite get there, but they're 1285 01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:45,600 Speaker 2: both either one of those scenes would be a little 1286 01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:48,680 Speaker 2: scary if you AV doesn't lock in and play defense. 1287 01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:51,240 Speaker 2: But I think if it's U A B in North Texas, 1288 01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:52,440 Speaker 2: it's basically a coin flip. So I had to take 1289 01:06:52,440 --> 01:06:57,360 Speaker 2: the plus seven to fifty there, all right, that'll do it. All. 1290 01:06:57,400 --> 01:07:02,160 Speaker 2: Thirty one conference tournaments are in the bag. Now it's 1291 01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:08,120 Speaker 2: time to hopefully bring home some winners. Thank you to 1292 01:07:08,160 --> 01:07:11,480 Speaker 2: everybody who helped me get this done or the past week, 1293 01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:18,520 Speaker 2: Greg Mike, Jim Kai Matt will not be thanking Tanner 1294 01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:22,480 Speaker 2: after us ums Lowell's performance, just not get to thank 1295 01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:27,920 Speaker 2: you our producers. Most importantly all of you the listeners 1296 01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:31,880 Speaker 2: appreciate all the support. It's the best time of the year. 1297 01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:36,000 Speaker 2: This is the best betting week of the year, with 1298 01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:42,680 Speaker 2: NonStop action starting tomorrow Tuesday. Although the Tuesday is always 1299 01:07:42,720 --> 01:07:45,439 Speaker 2: like you get really excited and Tuesday's just like the worst, 1300 01:07:45,560 --> 01:07:47,520 Speaker 2: the worst games. I'm looking at the schedule, it's like, 1301 01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:51,360 Speaker 2: oh god, so there will be some vely basketball tomorrow, 1302 01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:55,480 Speaker 2: but then from Wednesday to Sunday leading up to the 1303 01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:59,080 Speaker 2: bracket nothing better. And then you're like, wow, what a week. 1304 01:07:59,520 --> 01:08:01,720 Speaker 2: And then a couple days later you have the best 1305 01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:05,560 Speaker 2: weekend in all of sports for my money. So it's 1306 01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:09,120 Speaker 2: a great time of the year. Thanks to everyone who 1307 01:08:09,240 --> 01:08:11,800 Speaker 2: helped me with these podcasts with all the preparation, thanks 1308 01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:13,760 Speaker 2: to everyone who listened, Thanks to our producers, to a 1309 01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:16,240 Speaker 2: ton of work in the back end, and again thanks 1310 01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:18,320 Speaker 2: to all of you. Make sure you scratch our friends 1311 01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:21,080 Speaker 2: on enemy. We'll be back to Sunday Night. Bracket reaction 1312 01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:23,799 Speaker 2: show will be released on this podcast and then throughout 1313 01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:26,920 Speaker 2: the week leading up to the games. Good luck on 1314 01:08:26,960 --> 01:08:29,880 Speaker 2: all of your wages. We'll catch you all over the weekend. 1315 01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:42,840 Speaker 5: Cheers. 1316 01:08:30,360 --> 01:08:48,240 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 1317 01:08:48,640 --> 01:08:51,600 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 1318 01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,360 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 1319 01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:55,320 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler