Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 2: The Wednesday addition of Balance of Power as we turn
Speaker 2: back to presidential politics and still many questions about Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's acuity and ability to maintain his status as the
Speaker 2: presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. Here it's day two
Speaker 2: of the NATO summit in Washington. He'll be holding forth
Speaker 2: with bilateral meetings and a big dinner tonight which a
Speaker 2: lot of eyes will be on him. But another disruption
Speaker 2: as Democrats in Washington fail to seek consensus on this,
Speaker 2: a disruption in questioning with Nancy Pelosi, of course, the
Speaker 2: former Speaker of the House, talking on MSNB see this morning.
Speaker 2: Given the opportunity to fully endorse Joe Biden in his
Speaker 2: effort to stay in this race, here's what she said.
Speaker 3: It's up to the president to sucide if he is
Speaker 3: going to run We're all encouraging him to make that
Speaker 3: decision because time is running short. I want him to
Speaker 3: do whatever he decides to do, and that's the way
Speaker 3: it is. Whatever he decides, we go with.
Speaker 2: Whatever he decides, not exactly is a full throated endorsement.
Speaker 2: As we add Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison to the mix, Laura,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Did that just make Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's campaign more difficult.
Speaker 4: This is very difficult for him because you know, if
Speaker 4: you'll recall, he has said he's already decided. So having
Speaker 4: top Democrats come out and say, oh, well, the president
Speaker 4: needs to make up his mind really undercuts that messaging
Speaker 4: that he's been trying to set out and what we're
Speaker 4: not hearing from Pelosi as well as the number two
Speaker 4: House Democrat, Catherine Clark, came out today and said, look,
Speaker 4: it's the president's decision to decide, not I'm with Joe
Speaker 4: Biden and he should be our nominee.
Speaker 5: Those are two very different mes. Yeah, language is very
Speaker 5: important here. I would also note that despite the questions
Speaker 5: today about how Speaker Nancy Pelosi, there are others who
Speaker 5: are being even more definitive or Speaker Amrita, I should
Speaker 5: say Congressman Pat Ryan of New York becoming the eighth
Speaker 5: now to go on the record and say, and this
Speaker 5: is a quote he posted this on X I am
Speaker 5: asking Joe Biden to step aside for all of the
Speaker 5: talk in just the last twenty four hours on the
Speaker 5: idea that maybe the campaign had been able to stop
Speaker 5: the bleeding, if you will, we're still getting this trickle
Speaker 5: trickle Mikey Cheryl yesterday, Pat Ryan today, it's not necessarily ending.
Speaker 4: No, And you know, Michael Bennett coming out, you know,
Speaker 4: full throat, are the saying he told his colleagues to
Speaker 4: you know that this is not this Trump is gonna
Speaker 4: win in a landslide. That is a huge warning flag.
Speaker 4: The thing that was also interesting about Pelosi's comments earlier
Speaker 4: is she said to hold off any criticism of the
Speaker 4: presider calls for him to step aside until after Thursday's
Speaker 4: press conference. That wasn't stop talking about it. Let's let's
Speaker 4: let this matter go to rest. This is let's wait
Speaker 4: until Thursday. That gives the president a little more time
Speaker 4: to potentially show up his defenses. But still we could
Speaker 4: see a damn break, you know, twenty four hours thirty
Speaker 4: six hours from.
Speaker 2: Now, so this is still some sort of quasi deadline
Speaker 2: on Thursday news conference set NATO. We've been talking about
Speaker 2: it for days now because we turn immediately from there
Speaker 2: to Milwaukee, a likely vice presidential announcement running made announcement
Speaker 2: from Donald Trump. This really heightens the stakes around Thursday,
Speaker 2: when you have people like Nancy Pelosi continuing to remind
Speaker 2: us that it's there. There's a saying, of course about
Speaker 2: whistling past the graveyard, which is probably inappropriate to use
Speaker 2: at this point. But what can Joe Biden do in
Speaker 2: the meantime to lean into this, to focus on it.
Speaker 4: There's not a whole lot he can do right now.
Speaker 4: I mean, he has to really come out Thursday and
Speaker 4: show that he is in full command of the facts,
Speaker 4: that he's there. He's lively, he's he needs to be funny,
Speaker 4: you know, and witty in a way. But the thing
Speaker 4: to remember is, you know, even if he survives this week,
Speaker 4: there is still you know, four months essentially till the
Speaker 4: election day. At any minor slip up, GAF is going
Speaker 4: to be heavily criticized, and depending you know how big
Speaker 4: that is, we could see these calls crop up again
Speaker 4: and again, and that could really cause a lot of
Speaker 4: division the party. And potentially, you know, some Democrats are warning,
Speaker 4: you know, mean that they lose across the board House, Senate,
Speaker 4: and the White House. Of course, while all the Democrats
Speaker 4: are infighting, if you will, or trying to coalesce around
Speaker 4: a message, it does seem by in large Republicans, including
Speaker 4: the Republican presumptive nominee, Donald Trumper, staying out of it
Speaker 4: for the most part, though he has said in a
Speaker 4: few interviews in recent days the idea that he does
Speaker 4: believe Biden will be the nominee. Trump himself was at
Speaker 4: a rally in Florida yesterday alongside a Senator from Florida,
Speaker 4: Marco Rubio, got some hints, teasing, if you will, that
Speaker 4: potentially Rubio could be his vice presidential pick. But what
Speaker 4: we really find that out before the convention starts next week,
Speaker 4: you know, this is the big question. Trump's aides have
Speaker 4: suggested they want the decision before next Monday, or by
Speaker 4: Monday morning, whereas Trump has said, hey, I want to
Speaker 4: do it during the convention. Has even suggested, hey, this
Speaker 4: would be great for ratings, this would be great for viewership.
Speaker 4: He's really writing a lot. He's tapping into his reality
Speaker 4: TV instincts on this and wanting to tease out, you know,
Speaker 4: multiple times during the rally he hinted, you know, maybe
Speaker 4: Rubio would be in the Senate, maybe he would be
Speaker 4: involved in governing in some other ways, very undefined. Even
Speaker 4: in the remarks they sent out beforehand to reporters to
Speaker 4: show Trump's prepared remarks, it had a big section whereas
Speaker 4: tonight I am officially and then.
Speaker 2: Just cut off.
Speaker 4: So they are really playing this up in a major.
Speaker 5: Way, all right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison getting ready
Speaker 5: with all of us for Milwaukee just days from now.
Speaker 6: Thank you so much.
Speaker 5: Now, of course, as we prepare for the Republican Convention
Speaker 5: and face questions about what exactly could go down during
Speaker 5: the Democratic Convention, we have heard consistently from Joe Biden
Speaker 5: in the day since the debate that he believes he
Speaker 5: still can beat Donald Trump, suggesting he does not believe
Speaker 5: what he's seen in recent polling. We asked a former senator,
Speaker 5: someone who served with President Biden in the Senate, Bob Kerrey,
Speaker 5: about that idea last night, and this is what he
Speaker 5: told us.
Speaker 7: When you've got over seventy percent of the American people, black, white,
Speaker 7: Democrat Republicans saying he's too old.
Speaker 3: You can't fix that with a fiery speech at some event.
Speaker 8: Well, I'm I'm smelling delusion, a rational assessment, and a
Speaker 8: guy willing to pride on, and I worry about that.
Speaker 5: So let's get some more rational assessments, if we will,
Speaker 5: and talk to one of the pollsters in question themselves.
Speaker 5: Spencer Kimball is with us. He is director of the
Speaker 5: Emerson College Polling Center. Just out with new data yesterday. Spencer,
Speaker 5: welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 5: You find that, like a lot of the other polls
Speaker 5: we are seeing, Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden by
Speaker 5: potentially a wider margin forty six to forty three percent.
Speaker 5: We talk so much about margins of error, how close
Speaker 5: the selection is going to be, But do you get
Speaker 5: a sense that it actually is a gap that is
Speaker 5: widening in a more material way.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a.
Speaker 9: Good question, Kaylee, because what we saw out of that
Speaker 9: debate is Trump holding forty six percent. He was at
Speaker 9: forty six percent before the debate, and he's staying there.
Speaker 9: Where we saw the movement was Biden losing two points,
Speaker 9: and the concern for Biden is how many points might
Speaker 9: he shed over the next couple of weeks and then
Speaker 9: ken Trump actually pick up.
Speaker 6: That vote or does it go to a third party.
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting when you start asking undecideds here about
Speaker 2: which way they lean. Kaylee mentions forty six forty three,
Speaker 2: eleven percent undecided. But when you ask them to pick
Speaker 2: a candidate here, which candidate they lean toward? This race
Speaker 2: is tied, it's fifty fifty. So when we look at
Speaker 2: that slice of eleven percent undecideds, we talk a lot
Speaker 2: about the double haters. Spencer. Are these conventions this month
Speaker 2: and next going to change their minds?
Speaker 9: I'm not sure if the conventions will change their minds,
Speaker 9: But this is what President Biden is betting on that
Speaker 9: at the end of the day, that Trump has a
Speaker 9: ceiling of forty six forty seven percent, and that these
Speaker 9: other voters are going to come back to them because
Speaker 9: who is that eleven percent. They're generally younger, in minority voters.
Speaker 9: Those are generally Democratic voters who right now are on
Speaker 9: the sideline, and he's got to bring them back into
Speaker 9: the fold if he wants to replicate what he did
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty when he won nationally by about four
Speaker 9: and a half points.
Speaker 5: Well, of course there's other options. Those independents are those
Speaker 5: democratically minded but not Biden fans could consider here in
Speaker 5: third party, Spencer, you pulled that too, Trump forty four,
Speaker 5: Biden forty, RFK Junior six percent one support, one percent
Speaker 5: support for corn O West and Jill Stein. How should
Speaker 5: we be thinking about the third party factors here and
Speaker 5: whether they are likely to see a benefit from points
Speaker 5: falling away from Joe Biden in a more material way.
Speaker 9: So they're going to get their points from the younger voters,
Speaker 9: and the question is do they actually come out and
Speaker 9: vote in this election? And right now, So when you
Speaker 9: see that ballot test, Trump's up by three in the
Speaker 9: head to head, but then he goes up by four
Speaker 9: in the five way contest. Those are younger voters leaving
Speaker 9: Biden saying, hey, I can't vote for Trump, but I'll
Speaker 9: vote for you know, JFK Junior or Cornell West. And
Speaker 9: that's what's hurting Biden as well. So some of it
Speaker 9: again won't go directly to Trump, but by not going
Speaker 9: to Biden, it indirectly benefits Trump.
Speaker 2: I'm compelled, Spencer, by motivation by age. As we know
Speaker 2: it is much more likely that older voters are actually
Speaker 2: going to get off the couch and vote. In November,
Speaker 2: we spend a lot of time talking about young voter flight.
Speaker 2: From the Biden campaign is these are these numbers reassuring
Speaker 2: knowing that it will likely be older Americans who decide
Speaker 2: the next president.
Speaker 9: Well, if it is older Americans and the younger vote
Speaker 9: doesn't come out, that's where Joe Biden thinks he has
Speaker 9: an advantage. Prior to twenty twenty. He does better with
Speaker 9: voters over seventy compared to where he was four years ago. Unfortunately,
Speaker 9: he's doing worse with voters under seventy. So he's got
Speaker 9: to make up some ground with the fifty to seventy
Speaker 9: year olds. But those older voters who really vote at hyperpensities,
Speaker 9: they seem to be breaking slightly in his direction, but
Speaker 9: we're talking.
Speaker 6: Two or three points.
Speaker 9: This is a group that Trump won by about four
Speaker 9: or five points, so there's a slight swing there. But
Speaker 9: Trump has made up a lot of ground with the
Speaker 9: forty to sixty year old crowd.
Speaker 5: Spencer. We've spent the last almost two full weeks now
Speaker 5: here in Washington having the conversation about whether Joe Biden
Speaker 5: will drop out of the race, what happens if he does,
Speaker 5: who ultimately could become the Democratic nominee, with suggestions from
Speaker 5: some Democrats that anyone else may stand a better chance
Speaker 5: than Biden does. At this point, does your pulling find truth?
Speaker 5: And that are all of these other Democrats just as
Speaker 5: week against Donald Trump right now?
Speaker 9: And so, Kaylee, I'm glad that you asked that, because
Speaker 9: we need to discuss what those head to head ballot
Speaker 9: tests look like. When you have the Vice president Harris
Speaker 9: is down by six and you have other candidates.
Speaker 6: Down by more, why is that?
Speaker 9: And when we look inside those numbers, it's the younger
Speaker 9: voters who aren't aware of these other candidates, and so
Speaker 9: they're more on the sideline.
Speaker 6: So if you noticed, Trump.
Speaker 9: Might pick up a couple of points, But in my opinion,
Speaker 9: if you actually ran different candidate, I think that younger
Speaker 9: vote would come back. Right now, they're breaking for Biden
Speaker 9: by about fourteen points, they're breaking for these they're pretty
Speaker 9: much split on all of these other candidates. And remember
Speaker 9: they broke for Obama by about thirty points. So there's
Speaker 9: a lot of room with younger voters for the Democrats
Speaker 9: to make some gains with. But right now there team
Speaker 9: to be kind of looking a little bit like the
Speaker 9: John Carey al Gore race of two thousand and two
Speaker 9: thousand and four, where it wasn't as much younger vote
Speaker 9: putting in them over the finish line like we saw
Speaker 9: with Obama.
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, Kaylee mentions the age issue here following
Speaker 2: the debate. We should let everyone know by the way
Speaker 2: you ran these numbers, the seventh and eighth, that's Sunday
Speaker 2: and Monday. This week, we got a glimpse at what
Speaker 2: could be at least a temporary new stump speech from
Speaker 2: Donald Trump at his rally in Florida last evening, in
Speaker 2: which she was referring to Biden Harris instead of just
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. And he's introduced a nickname now for Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris that refers to her laughing, he continues to misrepresent
Speaker 2: her first name. We mispronounce her first name on the
Speaker 2: regular and I wonder if that's something that we're going
Speaker 2: to see born out in the numbers, as he acknowledges
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris as Joe Biden's partner.
Speaker 9: Well, I think, and you know, who knows what's going
Speaker 9: through former President Trump's mind, But this would be a
Speaker 9: game changer. If you take Biden off the top of
Speaker 9: the ticket, he might think, now Biden, President Biden thinks
Speaker 9: that he's the best candidate to go against Trump. Trump
Speaker 9: might think it's best to go against President Biden as
Speaker 9: a rematch from twenty twenty. But if you change that up,
Speaker 9: now we're shaking it up, and does Trump have a
Speaker 9: ceiling at forty six forty seven percent?
Speaker 6: And can some other Democrat come in.
Speaker 9: Excite that base that is not excited right now, and
Speaker 9: then actually springboard to a photo finish, because at this
Speaker 9: point it's certainly in the numbers leaning towards Trump from
Speaker 9: a national perspective.
Speaker 5: But we know ultimately it's going to come down to
Speaker 5: the swing states that will decide the outcome when we're
Speaker 5: thinking about the electoral college. Obviously, we saw some shifts
Speaker 5: from the Cook Political report yesterday on six states, but
Speaker 5: states that go beyond what we have our current understanding
Speaker 5: as swing states. We're talking about New Hampshire. We've heard
Speaker 5: suggestions from the Trump team that they think Virginia, possibly
Speaker 5: even New York could be in play. What do you
Speaker 5: think about that, Spencer, Should we expand our list?
Speaker 6: Yeah, we've already opened up to Minnesota.
Speaker 9: We had that race tied a couple of weeks ago
Speaker 9: before the debate, and Minnesota hasn't gone for a Republican
Speaker 9: since Nixon didn't even go for Reagan. So interesting to
Speaker 9: see those states swinging. But the crux of the race
Speaker 9: comes down to Arizona, Georgia. If the Republicans can take those,
Speaker 9: then any of those other swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia,
Speaker 9: those all put the.
Speaker 6: Race on a knife's edge.
Speaker 9: So we'll see if Georgia and Arizona are shifting to
Speaker 9: the right, if.
Speaker 6: Any of those other states move in that direction as well.
Speaker 2: Spencer, thanks for being with us. Always a pleasure to
Speaker 2: run around the track with Spencer Kimball in new research
Speaker 2: from Emerson College Polling Center, where he is director. Come
Speaker 2: back and see us soon on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: A reminder that will be in Milwaukee starting Monday with
Speaker 2: special coverage here the Republican National Convention all four days
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'll be there with Kaylee
Speaker 2: starting high noon Monday, in Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
Speaker 1: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5: Democrats try to coalesce around a strategy when it comes
Speaker 5: to President Biden and whether they should be pushing him
Speaker 5: to drop out or continue his re election campaign. Multiple
Speaker 5: well networks are now reporting that campaign advisors, including the
Speaker 5: likes of Steve Rochetti, will be meeting with Senate Democrats
Speaker 5: for lunch tomorrow as they continue to try to push
Speaker 5: their message on the Hill. And we know that some
Speaker 5: Senate Democrats are getting quite antsy about the electoral probabilities
Speaker 5: come November. Certainly one of those is Democratic Senator Michael
Speaker 5: Bennett of Colorado, who had this to say on CNN
Speaker 5: last night.
Speaker 7: Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win the
Speaker 7: selection and maybe win it by a landslide and take
Speaker 7: with him the Senate and the House the White House.
Speaker 7: In the time since that disastrous debate, I think has
Speaker 7: done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan
Speaker 7: to win the selection.
Speaker 2: You can add another from the House as well. Now,
Speaker 2: another Democrat. I believe it's number nine if we're keeping
Speaker 2: count here, and that's Pat Ryan, the Democrat from New York.
Speaker 2: Frontliner as they call them, considered a vulnerable democrat here
Speaker 2: with the tweet Joe Biden is a patriot, but is
Speaker 2: no longer the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. Let's
Speaker 2: assemble our panel today for their take on this. Brad
Speaker 2: Howard is with US, Democratic strategist and founder of Corkoran
Speaker 2: Street Group, along with Jennifer Nasourus. Great to have you back, Jennifer,
Speaker 2: republican strategist and former chair of the Massachusetts GOP, host
Speaker 2: of the Political Contessa podcast. I could talk to you
Speaker 2: both about lawmakers all day long. It doesn't seem to
Speaker 2: be making that big of a difference at the moment,
Speaker 2: at least for Joe Biden. But Brad, we find something
Speaker 2: potentially much more damaging in the New York Times and
Speaker 2: obed from George Clooney. If Joe Biden has lost Clooney,
Speaker 2: where are we?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 8: You know, I think all Americans are grateful that Hollywood
Speaker 8: has stepped into this debate. Look, I mean what matters
Speaker 8: is the presidents in her circle and the party leaders
Speaker 8: and you know, voters, And I think as we're starting
Speaker 8: to see, I think one of the interesting dynamics from
Speaker 8: the debate is you didn't see a big loss or gain.
Speaker 10: Among swing voters. In fact, Biden actually picked up a
Speaker 10: pointer or two among swing voters.
Speaker 8: Because swing voters have had this concern about his age
Speaker 8: from the beginning.
Speaker 10: It's the base that has been.
Speaker 8: Not really kind of willing to acknowledge it or has
Speaker 8: seen the severity of it. It wasn't to the debate
Speaker 8: when a lot of the base voters were faced with
Speaker 8: his age and real.
Speaker 10: Time and right in front of their face.
Speaker 8: And so I think that is what's caused them to
Speaker 8: like kind of have this panic moment here.
Speaker 10: And the President has spent the last week and I
Speaker 10: have trying to assure those concerns.
Speaker 8: I think he did stem the tide of this call
Speaker 8: a little bit by getting the Black Caucus to so
Speaker 8: firmly support him. That was kind of the kill shot
Speaker 8: of the effort. I think in the House, it kept
Speaker 8: Keen Jeffries from coming out and saying anything more.
Speaker 10: Nancy Pelosi is getting close to full out calling on
Speaker 10: him to step aside, but not quite there yet.
Speaker 8: So until either a Black Caucus leadership or a US
Speaker 8: Senator directly calls and publicly call for him to step aside,
Speaker 8: Biden's going to be the nominee.
Speaker 11: All right.
Speaker 5: I feel like we should characterize George Clooney's involvement in
Speaker 5: the Biden campaign because, yes, it is Hollywood, but he
Speaker 5: was also just weeks ago out in California alongside Joe Biden.
Speaker 5: We just had an image of it up for you
Speaker 5: on Bloomberg TV. Fundraising for him. He raised tens of
Speaker 5: millions of dollars, and in this op ed, Clooney wrote,
Speaker 5: in part, it's devastating to say it, but the Joe
Speaker 5: Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser
Speaker 5: was not the Joe big effing do Biden of twenty ten.
Speaker 5: He wasn't the Biden of twenty twenty. He was the
Speaker 5: same man we all witnessed at the debate, and this
Speaker 5: fundraiser happened before the debate, Jennifer to bring you in here.
Speaker 5: If he is the same man that debated almost two
Speaker 5: weeks ago, for the rest of this election cycle, does
Speaker 5: he stand any chance at all of defeating Donald Trump.
Speaker 11: None, not at all. I mean I think that you know,
Speaker 11: Donald Trump will win with historic numbers if Joe Biden
Speaker 11: is the nominee for the Democratic Party. So if the
Speaker 11: Democratic Party is trying to sink itself and go down
Speaker 11: and become a pile of ashes, they're doing a great
Speaker 11: job with keeping Joe Biden at the top here. So
Speaker 11: I mean the guy that we saw at the debate,
Speaker 11: the guy that was on TV just earlier today talking
Speaker 11: about NATO and welcoming and starting the conference off. I mean,
Speaker 11: that is the President of the United States. It is
Speaker 11: an embarrassment. It is an embarrassment, not not just to
Speaker 11: our country and the voters here, but on the international stage.
Speaker 11: And we can't keep going down this trajectory. It's one
Speaker 11: thing his terrible policies, but it's another thing to have
Speaker 11: that man out there, and the Democratic Party is not
Speaker 11: doing anything about it other than these calls for him
Speaker 11: to resign. His inner circle needs to tell him to go.
Speaker 11: And on the George Clooney front, I will say this,
Speaker 11: that is Obama working behind the scenes talking to other
Speaker 11: people in Hollywood and telling them that they have to
Speaker 11: step in as well.
Speaker 10: I live in Massachusetts.
Speaker 11: Massachusetts governor said the debate was horrific. We have Seth Molton,
Speaker 11: member of Congress who has called for Joe Biden to
Speaker 11: step down up in Maine, Jared Golden, same thing. I mean,
Speaker 11: we're seeing Democrats from blue states who are saying it's
Speaker 11: time for him to go.
Speaker 2: All right, Brad, I know you're going to want to
Speaker 2: respond to this. We just heard a lot, obviously from
Speaker 2: Jennifer here, but I want to get your impressions on
Speaker 2: this potential for Obama involvement. Is George Clooney speaking for
Speaker 2: the former president here.
Speaker 8: Let me first say that the Republican friend here made
Speaker 8: a lot of assumptions, a lot of incorrect statements. For instance,
Speaker 8: Jared Golden has not called on the president's step aside.
Speaker 8: He has concerned about his ability to win, but he's
Speaker 8: not yet called from the step aside. And number two
Speaker 8: for Republicans to try to guess.
Speaker 10: What Obama is doing is rich.
Speaker 8: Number Three, what is embarrassing is that there is a
Speaker 8: major national political party in the United States says is
Speaker 8: nominating that's going to nominate next week.
Speaker 10: A guy with thirty one felony convictions.
Speaker 8: The guy who is help civilly liable for a sexual
Speaker 8: assault against a woman. That's what's embarrassing. The Republicans somehow
Speaker 8: have the ability to hold their head high. What we
Speaker 8: are debating here is whether we think we have the
Speaker 8: best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November and serve
Speaker 8: this country for the next four years.
Speaker 10: That's a very fair reason, but that is not an
Speaker 10: embarrassing debate.
Speaker 8: I'll take this bait any day over what the Republicans
Speaker 8: are about to do next week.
Speaker 5: We've got some passion on the panel today. I love
Speaker 5: it both of you, Brad and Jennifer as we talk
Speaker 5: about the idea of actual policy here, which was discussed
Speaker 5: in the debate, although it was performance that ultimately stole
Speaker 5: the narrative. We are seeing that President Biden and those
Speaker 5: around him close to him seem to be pushing back
Speaker 5: against the idea of him dropping out, talking about what
Speaker 5: could happen in a second Trump presidency, including Project twenty
Speaker 5: twenty five, something put out by the Heritage Foundation. It's
Speaker 5: something that Trump himself has tried to distance himself from.
Speaker 5: But Jennifer, do you actually believe that the former president
Speaker 5: and presumptive Republican nominee actually doesn't agree with a lot
Speaker 5: of those ideas, or it's Project twenty twenty five, at
Speaker 5: least elements of it, something that could ultimately become a
Speaker 5: reality if he wins.
Speaker 11: No, I think that that is something that is coming
Speaker 11: out of a very conservative think tank. That is not
Speaker 11: something that Trump is as far as I know, and
Speaker 11: we see. Look, what you need to rememb member is
Speaker 11: that as a former president and the presumptive nominee of
Speaker 11: the party, Donald Trump is the head of the Republican
Speaker 11: Party right now. Whether you like it or you don't
Speaker 11: like it, it doesn't matter. And what we saw come
Speaker 11: out of the Platform Committee for the RNC is a
Speaker 11: much softer platform than we have had in probably ten
Speaker 11: or twelve years. And so I think you have to
Speaker 11: really keep in mind that that is driven by Trump
Speaker 11: and his understanding that of the forty three percent of
Speaker 11: the electorate that considers themselves to be independent voters, he
Speaker 11: needs to win those folks in order to win this race.
Speaker 2: Brad, we've just got a minute. I want to ask
Speaker 2: you about Kamala Harris. Her name hasn't really come up
Speaker 2: this hour. She was out in Las Vegas with her
Speaker 2: own rally in which she called out Project twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five yesterday, quote a plan to limit access to contraception
Speaker 2: and for a nationwide abortion band, with or without a
Speaker 2: lack of conference unquote in our remaining moment, how important
Speaker 2: or the next two days for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 8: Very important, real quick on Project twenty twenty twenty five.
Speaker 8: What to pay attention to is not whether or not
Speaker 8: Donald Trump says he had anything to do with it.
Speaker 8: Donald Trump has yet to fully denounce Project twenty twenty five.
Speaker 8: He has said he has some concerns, but we don't
Speaker 8: know what those concerns are. I call on him and
Speaker 8: the Republicans to tell us what about that that they
Speaker 8: don't like. And number two, Kamala has been a terrific
Speaker 8: vice president. I think the issue of choice is a
Speaker 8: great one for her. It reminds voters what's at stake
Speaker 8: in this selection, and that is individual liberty and freedoms.
Speaker 10: The Republican Party want to dictate to you how you
Speaker 10: want to live your life.
Speaker 8: If you look at twenty twenty five, it's full of
Speaker 8: moralistic kind of.
Speaker 10: Ideas on how they think you should live your life.
Speaker 8: The Democrats are the ones that are trying to give
Speaker 8: you the liberty to live your life and raise your
Speaker 8: family how you see fit, and love who you want
Speaker 8: to love.
Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, Brad Howard, we will leave it there.
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for joining us. Brad Howard, of course,
Speaker 5: as democratic strategist and founder of the Corkin Street Group.
Speaker 5: Joined today by Jennifer Nasure, Republican strategist and former Massachusetts
Speaker 5: GOP chair, host of the Political Contessa podcast Dialogue. It's
Speaker 5: what we live for here.
Speaker 2: That was great in Washington. It was great.
Speaker 5: We got more great stuff coming up right here on
Speaker 5: Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play
Speaker 1: and then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: We talk politics in Washington the Wednesday edition of Ballots
Speaker 2: of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thanks for being
Speaker 2: with us as we turn our attention to the NATO
Speaker 2: Summit that is now underway here in Washington. Joe Biden
Speaker 2: holding forth a bit later on in a special dinner
Speaker 2: with the more than thirty world leaders who are gathered
Speaker 2: just a couple of blocks away from where we are
Speaker 2: sitting here, with of course Ukraine on the agenda. This
Speaker 2: is something we're going to be hearing a lot more
Speaker 2: about as NATO countries pledge this week to beat up
Speaker 2: efforts to fund the war in Ukraine, with big questions
Speaker 2: about creating a more definitive path toward NATO membership. In fact,
Speaker 2: we heard from Vladimir Zelenski, the President of Ukraine yesterday
Speaker 2: at the NATO summit here he is it's time.
Speaker 10: To sit out, to step out of the shadows.
Speaker 1: To make strong decisions, work to act, and not to
Speaker 1: wait for November or any other months.
Speaker 5: To this end, Zelensky calling for the NATO allies to
Speaker 5: act now versus later, and we are seeing them take
Speaker 5: some action now. In fact, yesterday it was announced by
Speaker 5: President Biden and his speech addressing the summit, five long
Speaker 5: range air defense systems for Ukraine, more Patriot missiles of course,
Speaker 5: dozens of shorter range systems and missiles as well. The
Speaker 5: question is how quickly can it make a difference, and
Speaker 5: is this really what Ukraine needs the most? For those
Speaker 5: questions and more, we turn out of Kelly Grico, who
Speaker 5: is back with us here on Bloomberg. She has Stimpson
Speaker 5: Center senior fellow with the Imagining US Grand Strategy program. Kelly,
Speaker 5: always great to talk to you. We obviously got the
Speaker 5: news on those long range air defense systems. We know
Speaker 5: that air defense is what Zelensky has been pushing very
Speaker 5: hard for. You got five of them. How much of
Speaker 5: a difference does it make?
Speaker 12: Yeah, so thank you for having me. Yes, it is
Speaker 12: an important announcement. These are five systems. Four of them
Speaker 12: will be Patriot batteries, which is quite significant, Another one
Speaker 12: will be a SAMTE which is also a long range system,
Speaker 12: and also dozens of other tactical air defense systems. So
Speaker 12: this is a very significant investment. What we don't know
Speaker 12: exactly is what version of the Patriot system these are,
Speaker 12: where they're coming from, so how long it will take
Speaker 12: and in terms of impact, it really depends on how
Speaker 12: they're going to use them, and I have some questions
Speaker 12: about that, particularly given F sixteens might be arriving in
Speaker 12: the country. Will these Patriots systems be used to protect
Speaker 12: air bases that are hosting the F sixteens or are
Speaker 12: they going to be used to protect the cities and
Speaker 12: the energy infrastructure. If the latter, then it could have
Speaker 12: a significant impact.
Speaker 2: Kelly, it's great to have you back. You mentioned the
Speaker 2: F sixteen's US made fighter jets from Denmark and the
Speaker 2: Netherlands on their way, and we're apparently talking about sending
Speaker 2: even more. You're the first person we ever talked about
Speaker 2: this idea with here on balance of power, and you
Speaker 2: question their effectiveness and whether they were consistent with the
Speaker 2: strategy in Ukraine. There's reporting now from Bloomberg just in
Speaker 2: the past couple of days they don't have enough pilots
Speaker 2: who are prepared to fly these jets. They don't even
Speaker 2: have enough prospective pilots to train. So what are we
Speaker 2: doing here?
Speaker 12: This is a great question, you know, I have this
Speaker 12: question myself. You know, we know that there's about twenty
Speaker 12: pilots that will graduate by the end of the year.
Speaker 12: There's about sixty aircraft roughly that are being donated by countries,
Speaker 12: so that's about you know, three aircraft per pilot, which
Speaker 12: is the opposite of sort of what you would want
Speaker 12: for the numbers, because usually pilots get quired before the aircraft,
Speaker 12: you know, so it's going to be a small contribution,
Speaker 12: especially at first, and I think it's noticeable that you
Speaker 12: can see the Ukraine's trying to scale back expectations. So
Speaker 12: they're talking now about using these largely in an air
Speaker 12: defense role, so to intercept shah head drones and cruise missiles.
Speaker 12: And I'll just note that's an expensive way to do that.
Speaker 12: You know, we'll see how this plays out. But I think,
Speaker 12: you know, there are concerns about is this investment worth
Speaker 12: it long term? You know, Ukraine will need an air force,
Speaker 12: but certainly in the short term, is this really worth
Speaker 12: The impact it will have operationally on the battlefield is
Speaker 12: going to be marginal compared to the amount of effort
Speaker 12: that is going into.
Speaker 6: This for sure.
Speaker 5: Okay, So, Kelly, if it's a question of investment versus reward,
Speaker 5: what kind of investment would read greater reward for for Ukraine?
Speaker 5: What could it more use that perhaps it isn't getting
Speaker 5: right now.
Speaker 12: Well, I think it's actually an investment that allies can provide,
Speaker 12: which is manpower, personnel. This is still an issue that
Speaker 12: Ukraine is dealing with, which is you know, trying to
Speaker 12: recruit and mobilize forces. I thought it was quite interesting
Speaker 12: that Ukraine and Poland signed a security arrangement this week
Speaker 12: and one of the things that was included with Poland
Speaker 12: singling that it would send back Ukrainians that are are
Speaker 12: you know, eligible for service back to Ukraine, and it hosts,
Speaker 12: of course, many refugees. So the personnel issues are very
Speaker 12: significant because this is really a war of attrition. Beyond that, obviously,
Speaker 12: air defense matters a lot, but we're really getting in
Speaker 12: a hard place now sending more air defense systems, including
Speaker 12: anti air missiles.
Speaker 11: You know.
Speaker 12: Biden again last night said Ukraine's going to cut the
Speaker 12: line in new anti air missiles that are coming out
Speaker 12: of factories and be the first to get them. And
Speaker 12: that means Ukraine's getting them and not other allies and partners,
Speaker 12: whether that's Taiwan or Japan or Israel.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to put a finer point on this, and I
Speaker 2: hate to belabor the F sixteen's here, but we've got
Speaker 2: seventy nine that have been committed so far, seventy nine
Speaker 2: jets just this week, Zelenski said here in Washington, quote
Speaker 2: until we have one hundred and twenty eight, we will
Speaker 2: not be able to match them in the skies and
Speaker 2: it will be difficult. Unquote. Does he believe the Pentagon
Speaker 2: or is the Pentagon not being honest with him on this.
Speaker 12: Well, I think we've seen that the Ukrainians, and this
Speaker 12: is understandable given they're fighting a war, their tendency is
Speaker 12: to sort of keep raising what their needs are. When
Speaker 12: they have something, they're not completely satisfied and they want more,
Speaker 12: and that's understandable because they are fighting a war. You know,
Speaker 12: at the end of the day, though the F sixteen
Speaker 12: is a fourth generation aircraft, the Russians have very advanced
Speaker 12: air defense systems, and so there's always going to be
Speaker 12: an issue of the fact that the F sixteen against
Speaker 12: these very advanced Russian air defense is going to be
Speaker 12: vulnerable to being shot down when it's being operated most
Speaker 12: of affectively in the sky. And we're already seeing the
Speaker 12: Russians are going after have increased attacks on air bases
Speaker 12: in preparation for the Ukraine's receiving these these jets and
Speaker 12: so they're getting prepared to target them on the ground
Speaker 12: as well. So, you know, I understand that Zelenski wants more,
Speaker 12: but the question is where are smart investments. Because there's
Speaker 12: only so much money as well available, where are the
Speaker 12: smart places to be able to really support Ukraine's effort
Speaker 12: to the maximum gain.
Speaker 5: Well, and to such a large extent, Kelly. What we're
Speaker 5: talking about here is supporting Ukraine's defensive effort, things like
Speaker 5: intercepting missiles, et cetera. There's also the question of offense.
Speaker 5: Knowing we have seen a change in at least US
Speaker 5: administration policy when it comes to Ukraine offensively striking certain
Speaker 5: targets within Russia. What started narrower has broadened a bit.
Speaker 5: But for Ukraine to actually win the war, is that
Speaker 5: the real conversation that needs to be had.
Speaker 12: I think the real conversation that needs to be had
Speaker 12: is actually what winning the war means, and that should
Speaker 12: be a political defined politically. It should be an independent
Speaker 12: Ukraine in Ukraine that's able to keep as much recapture
Speaker 12: as much territory as possiful, but it's going to have
Speaker 12: to acknowledge that it's probably not going to recapture every
Speaker 12: last bit of territory, and I know that is horrible,
Speaker 12: But the reality on the ground is that you just
Speaker 12: can't overcome certain realities, which is that Russia has more personnel,
Speaker 12: it's able to sustain its war economy. It's been really
Speaker 12: ramping it up, whereas Western support is really reaching sort
Speaker 12: of some of its maximums, and so those realities. No
Speaker 12: matter what we want to do and how we want
Speaker 12: this outcome to be, we have to come to terms
Speaker 12: with that and think about how can we prepare Ukraine
Speaker 12: to really position itself to get the best deal possible
Speaker 12: in some kind of negotiated settlement. Because I think it's
Speaker 12: quite clear at this point that this war is headed
Speaker 12: for that. It's just a question of what that's.
Speaker 10: Going to look like.
Speaker 2: Really interesting, as we spend time with Kelly Grico at
Speaker 2: the Stimpson Center, so many people are talking about the
Speaker 2: news conference that Joe Biden is going to be holding
Speaker 2: tomorrow at the conclusion Kelly of this NATO summit. I
Speaker 2: suspect a lot, if not all, of the questions are
Speaker 2: going to be about his age, his mental acuity, and
Speaker 2: some of the related political issues that we've been dealing
Speaker 2: with since the debate here in Washington. How about policy
Speaker 2: toward Ukraine. What would you ask Joe Biden if you
Speaker 2: were a reporter in the crowd tomorrow, I would ask.
Speaker 12: Him what the long term strategy is. Rather than simply
Speaker 12: saying that it's as long as it takes, I'd like
Speaker 12: to know what the theory of victory is now for
Speaker 12: Ukraine and for its Western supporters, how does this look
Speaker 12: in the end and how are we getting there?
Speaker 5: Isn't that not really though? For the US president whoever
Speaker 5: they are to decide, Kelly, is that not up to Selenski?
Speaker 12: You know, I know that we say that and to
Speaker 12: a certain amount, Gregory, That's true. It's up to Ukraine
Speaker 12: to decide, you know, battlefield strategy and to decide, you know,
Speaker 12: a political settlement is gonn.
Speaker 9: Accept it or not.
Speaker 12: But we, as significant backers of that, have choices to
Speaker 12: make about our own support and what we're willing to
Speaker 12: support or not. We may decide that we're not willing
Speaker 12: to provide endless support that would be required perhaps to
Speaker 12: take back large portions of territory, if that was even possible,
Speaker 12: And so we need to actually have really honest conversations
Speaker 12: about that, because our interests are aligned with Ukraine, but
Speaker 12: they're not identical and that's just the reality of alliances
Speaker 12: and coalition partnerships, and so we need to actually look
Speaker 12: at that and make sure that both sides understand that reality.
Speaker 2: Trump proofing is the buzz phrase, if I can call
Speaker 2: it that at this NATO summit love him or hate him,
Speaker 2: world leaders are talking about, Kelly, what would a Trump
Speaker 2: reelection mean for NATO.
Speaker 12: Well, let me just first say that Trump proofing is
Speaker 12: talked about extensively in this town, particularly with allies, whether
Speaker 12: it's in Europe or Asia. As I will say to
Speaker 12: them often, I do not believe trump proofing is possible.
Speaker 12: I just think that's not a reality and practice. I
Speaker 12: think what's clear is that a Trump presidency would result
Speaker 12: in a massive scaling back of support for Ukraine, possibly
Speaker 12: an ending a material support for Ukraine. And even more significantly,
Speaker 12: it would result in I think a draw down, a
Speaker 12: shifting of security responsibilities dramatically from the United States to Europe.
Speaker 12: Would it result in a withdrawal formal withdrawal from NATO?
Speaker 5: I do not know.
Speaker 12: Maybe, but I think even short of that, it's going
Speaker 12: to be a real emphasis on Europe, which is, these
Speaker 12: are wealthy countries really spending more on defense and providing
Speaker 12: for their own security, particularly so that the United States
Speaker 12: can focus on some of the really significant security threats
Speaker 12: emerging in the end of Pacific.
Speaker 5: Just finally, Kelly, as you were talking about how you
Speaker 5: would ask President Biden to get serious if you will
Speaker 5: about what exactly the endgame is when it comes to
Speaker 5: US support for Ukraine. Given what we have heard from
Speaker 5: Donald Trump about this, aside from his suggestion he could
Speaker 5: solve this war make an end on day one of
Speaker 5: his presidency, does he seem to be talking about it
Speaker 5: more realistically than Biden does at this point.
Speaker 12: Well, I don't think, you know, the idea of ending
Speaker 12: the war overnight is you know, you know, realistic. I
Speaker 12: think that there is a bit more public recognition of
Speaker 12: some of the inherent limits on US support. I think
Speaker 12: I think that's a reality. What I think is not
Speaker 12: as realistic in certain terms of Trump is maybe overestimating
Speaker 12: US influence and its ability to actually end the war.
Speaker 12: You know, yes, we're providing a lot of material support,
Speaker 12: but we're not the only actor really involved in this
Speaker 12: in Europe provide significant support at this point to Ukraine
Speaker 12: as well. So our ability, you know, we're accustomed to,
Speaker 12: you know, for many decades, being the sort of most
Speaker 12: powerful actor in the world, and we kind of get
Speaker 12: to say how things are gonna turn out. We're no
Speaker 12: longer in that place anymore, and so I think that's
Speaker 12: an adjustment, not just for Donald Trump, but sort of
Speaker 12: for all of us as Americans.
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to take a deep dive with Kelly Grico.
Speaker 2: It's good to see you, Kelly. Thanks for your insights,
Speaker 2: today's Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program
Speaker 2: at the Stimson Center. Thanks for listening to the Balance
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.