1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV and radio. 7 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: The Wednesday addition of Balance of Power as we turn 8 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: back to presidential politics and still many questions about Joe 9 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: Biden's acuity and ability to maintain his status as the 10 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 2: presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. Here it's day two 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 2: of the NATO summit in Washington. He'll be holding forth 12 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 2: with bilateral meetings and a big dinner tonight which a 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: lot of eyes will be on him. But another disruption 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: as Democrats in Washington fail to seek consensus on this, 15 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: a disruption in questioning with Nancy Pelosi, of course, the 16 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 2: former Speaker of the House, talking on MSNB see this morning. 17 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: Given the opportunity to fully endorse Joe Biden in his 18 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: effort to stay in this race, here's what she said. 19 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 3: It's up to the president to sucide if he is 20 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 3: going to run We're all encouraging him to make that 21 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 3: decision because time is running short. I want him to 22 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 3: do whatever he decides to do, and that's the way 23 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 3: it is. Whatever he decides, we go with. 24 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 2: Whatever he decides, not exactly is a full throated endorsement. 25 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: As we add Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison to the mix, Laura, 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Did that just make Joe 27 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: Biden's campaign more difficult. 28 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 4: This is very difficult for him because you know, if 29 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 4: you'll recall, he has said he's already decided. So having 30 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 4: top Democrats come out and say, oh, well, the president 31 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 4: needs to make up his mind really undercuts that messaging 32 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 4: that he's been trying to set out and what we're 33 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 4: not hearing from Pelosi as well as the number two 34 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 4: House Democrat, Catherine Clark, came out today and said, look, 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 4: it's the president's decision to decide, not I'm with Joe 36 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 4: Biden and he should be our nominee. 37 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 5: Those are two very different mes. Yeah, language is very 38 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 5: important here. I would also note that despite the questions 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 5: today about how Speaker Nancy Pelosi, there are others who 40 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 5: are being even more definitive or Speaker Amrita, I should 41 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 5: say Congressman Pat Ryan of New York becoming the eighth 42 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 5: now to go on the record and say, and this 43 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 5: is a quote he posted this on X I am 44 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 5: asking Joe Biden to step aside for all of the 45 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 5: talk in just the last twenty four hours on the 46 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 5: idea that maybe the campaign had been able to stop 47 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 5: the bleeding, if you will, we're still getting this trickle 48 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 5: trickle Mikey Cheryl yesterday, Pat Ryan today, it's not necessarily ending. 49 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 4: No, And you know, Michael Bennett coming out, you know, 50 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 4: full throat, are the saying he told his colleagues to 51 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 4: you know that this is not this Trump is gonna 52 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 4: win in a landslide. That is a huge warning flag. 53 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 4: The thing that was also interesting about Pelosi's comments earlier 54 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 4: is she said to hold off any criticism of the 55 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: presider calls for him to step aside until after Thursday's 56 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 4: press conference. That wasn't stop talking about it. Let's let's 57 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 4: let this matter go to rest. This is let's wait 58 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 4: until Thursday. That gives the president a little more time 59 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 4: to potentially show up his defenses. But still we could 60 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 4: see a damn break, you know, twenty four hours thirty 61 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 4: six hours from. 62 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 2: Now, so this is still some sort of quasi deadline 63 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 2: on Thursday news conference set NATO. We've been talking about 64 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 2: it for days now because we turn immediately from there 65 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 2: to Milwaukee, a likely vice presidential announcement running made announcement 66 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 2: from Donald Trump. This really heightens the stakes around Thursday, 67 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: when you have people like Nancy Pelosi continuing to remind 68 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,839 Speaker 2: us that it's there. There's a saying, of course about 69 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: whistling past the graveyard, which is probably inappropriate to use 70 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 2: at this point. But what can Joe Biden do in 71 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 2: the meantime to lean into this, to focus on it. 72 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 4: There's not a whole lot he can do right now. 73 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 4: I mean, he has to really come out Thursday and 74 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 4: show that he is in full command of the facts, 75 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 4: that he's there. He's lively, he's he needs to be funny, 76 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 4: you know, and witty in a way. But the thing 77 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 4: to remember is, you know, even if he survives this week, 78 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 4: there is still you know, four months essentially till the 79 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 4: election day. At any minor slip up, GAF is going 80 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 4: to be heavily criticized, and depending you know how big 81 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 4: that is, we could see these calls crop up again 82 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 4: and again, and that could really cause a lot of 83 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 4: division the party. And potentially, you know, some Democrats are warning, 84 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 4: you know, mean that they lose across the board House, Senate, 85 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 4: and the White House. Of course, while all the Democrats 86 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 4: are infighting, if you will, or trying to coalesce around 87 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 4: a message, it does seem by in large Republicans, including 88 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 4: the Republican presumptive nominee, Donald Trumper, staying out of it 89 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 4: for the most part, though he has said in a 90 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 4: few interviews in recent days the idea that he does 91 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 4: believe Biden will be the nominee. Trump himself was at 92 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 4: a rally in Florida yesterday alongside a Senator from Florida, 93 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 4: Marco Rubio, got some hints, teasing, if you will, that 94 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 4: potentially Rubio could be his vice presidential pick. But what 95 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 4: we really find that out before the convention starts next week, 96 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: you know, this is the big question. Trump's aides have 97 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 4: suggested they want the decision before next Monday, or by 98 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 4: Monday morning, whereas Trump has said, hey, I want to 99 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 4: do it during the convention. Has even suggested, hey, this 100 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 4: would be great for ratings, this would be great for viewership. 101 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 4: He's really writing a lot. He's tapping into his reality 102 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,840 Speaker 4: TV instincts on this and wanting to tease out, you know, 103 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 4: multiple times during the rally he hinted, you know, maybe 104 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 4: Rubio would be in the Senate, maybe he would be 105 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 4: involved in governing in some other ways, very undefined. Even 106 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 4: in the remarks they sent out beforehand to reporters to 107 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 4: show Trump's prepared remarks, it had a big section whereas 108 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 4: tonight I am officially and then. 109 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 2: Just cut off. 110 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 4: So they are really playing this up in a major. 111 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 5: Way, all right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison getting ready 112 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 5: with all of us for Milwaukee just days from now. 113 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 6: Thank you so much. 114 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 5: Now, of course, as we prepare for the Republican Convention 115 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 5: and face questions about what exactly could go down during 116 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 5: the Democratic Convention, we have heard consistently from Joe Biden 117 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 5: in the day since the debate that he believes he 118 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 5: still can beat Donald Trump, suggesting he does not believe 119 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 5: what he's seen in recent polling. We asked a former senator, 120 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 5: someone who served with President Biden in the Senate, Bob Kerrey, 121 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 5: about that idea last night, and this is what he 122 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 5: told us. 123 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 7: When you've got over seventy percent of the American people, black, white, 124 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 7: Democrat Republicans saying he's too old. 125 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 3: You can't fix that with a fiery speech at some event. 126 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 8: Well, I'm I'm smelling delusion, a rational assessment, and a 127 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 8: guy willing to pride on, and I worry about that. 128 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 5: So let's get some more rational assessments, if we will, 129 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,359 Speaker 5: and talk to one of the pollsters in question themselves. 130 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 5: Spencer Kimball is with us. He is director of the 131 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 5: Emerson College Polling Center. Just out with new data yesterday. Spencer, 132 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 5: welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 133 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 5: You find that, like a lot of the other polls 134 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 5: we are seeing, Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden by 135 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 5: potentially a wider margin forty six to forty three percent. 136 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 5: We talk so much about margins of error, how close 137 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 5: the selection is going to be, But do you get 138 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 5: a sense that it actually is a gap that is 139 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 5: widening in a more material way. 140 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a. 141 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 9: Good question, Kaylee, because what we saw out of that 142 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 9: debate is Trump holding forty six percent. He was at 143 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 9: forty six percent before the debate, and he's staying there. 144 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 9: Where we saw the movement was Biden losing two points, 145 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 9: and the concern for Biden is how many points might 146 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 9: he shed over the next couple of weeks and then 147 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 9: ken Trump actually pick up. 148 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 6: That vote or does it go to a third party. 149 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting when you start asking undecideds here about 150 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 2: which way they lean. Kaylee mentions forty six forty three, 151 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 2: eleven percent undecided. But when you ask them to pick 152 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 2: a candidate here, which candidate they lean toward? This race 153 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 2: is tied, it's fifty fifty. So when we look at 154 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 2: that slice of eleven percent undecideds, we talk a lot 155 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 2: about the double haters. Spencer. Are these conventions this month 156 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 2: and next going to change their minds? 157 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,679 Speaker 9: I'm not sure if the conventions will change their minds, 158 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 9: But this is what President Biden is betting on that 159 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 9: at the end of the day, that Trump has a 160 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 9: ceiling of forty six forty seven percent, and that these 161 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 9: other voters are going to come back to them because 162 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 9: who is that eleven percent. They're generally younger, in minority voters. 163 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 9: Those are generally Democratic voters who right now are on 164 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 9: the sideline, and he's got to bring them back into 165 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 9: the fold if he wants to replicate what he did 166 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 9: in twenty twenty when he won nationally by about four 167 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 9: and a half points. 168 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 5: Well, of course there's other options. Those independents are those 169 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 5: democratically minded but not Biden fans could consider here in 170 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 5: third party, Spencer, you pulled that too, Trump forty four, 171 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:23,119 Speaker 5: Biden forty, RFK Junior six percent one support, one percent 172 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,119 Speaker 5: support for corn O West and Jill Stein. How should 173 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 5: we be thinking about the third party factors here and 174 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 5: whether they are likely to see a benefit from points 175 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 5: falling away from Joe Biden in a more material way. 176 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 9: So they're going to get their points from the younger voters, 177 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 9: and the question is do they actually come out and 178 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 9: vote in this election? And right now, So when you 179 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 9: see that ballot test, Trump's up by three in the 180 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 9: head to head, but then he goes up by four 181 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 9: in the five way contest. Those are younger voters leaving 182 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 9: Biden saying, hey, I can't vote for Trump, but I'll 183 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 9: vote for you know, JFK Junior or Cornell West. And 184 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 9: that's what's hurting Biden as well. So some of it 185 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 9: again won't go directly to Trump, but by not going 186 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 9: to Biden, it indirectly benefits Trump. 187 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: I'm compelled, Spencer, by motivation by age. As we know 188 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 2: it is much more likely that older voters are actually 189 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: going to get off the couch and vote. In November, 190 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: we spend a lot of time talking about young voter flight. 191 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 2: From the Biden campaign is these are these numbers reassuring 192 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 2: knowing that it will likely be older Americans who decide 193 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 2: the next president. 194 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 9: Well, if it is older Americans and the younger vote 195 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 9: doesn't come out, that's where Joe Biden thinks he has 196 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 9: an advantage. Prior to twenty twenty. He does better with 197 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 9: voters over seventy compared to where he was four years ago. Unfortunately, 198 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 9: he's doing worse with voters under seventy. So he's got 199 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 9: to make up some ground with the fifty to seventy 200 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 9: year olds. But those older voters who really vote at hyperpensities, 201 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 9: they seem to be breaking slightly in his direction, but 202 00:09:57,920 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 9: we're talking. 203 00:09:58,400 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 6: Two or three points. 204 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 9: This is a group that Trump won by about four 205 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 9: or five points, so there's a slight swing there. But 206 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 9: Trump has made up a lot of ground with the 207 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 9: forty to sixty year old crowd. 208 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 5: Spencer. We've spent the last almost two full weeks now 209 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 5: here in Washington having the conversation about whether Joe Biden 210 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 5: will drop out of the race, what happens if he does, 211 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 5: who ultimately could become the Democratic nominee, with suggestions from 212 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 5: some Democrats that anyone else may stand a better chance 213 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 5: than Biden does. At this point, does your pulling find truth? 214 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,199 Speaker 5: And that are all of these other Democrats just as 215 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 5: week against Donald Trump right now? 216 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 9: And so, Kaylee, I'm glad that you asked that, because 217 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 9: we need to discuss what those head to head ballot 218 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,959 Speaker 9: tests look like. When you have the Vice president Harris 219 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 9: is down by six and you have other candidates. 220 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 6: Down by more, why is that? 221 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 9: And when we look inside those numbers, it's the younger 222 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 9: voters who aren't aware of these other candidates, and so 223 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 9: they're more on the sideline. 224 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 6: So if you noticed, Trump. 225 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 9: Might pick up a couple of points, But in my opinion, 226 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 9: if you actually ran different candidate, I think that younger 227 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 9: vote would come back. Right now, they're breaking for Biden 228 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 9: by about fourteen points, they're breaking for these they're pretty 229 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 9: much split on all of these other candidates. And remember 230 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 9: they broke for Obama by about thirty points. So there's 231 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 9: a lot of room with younger voters for the Democrats 232 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 9: to make some gains with. But right now there team 233 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 9: to be kind of looking a little bit like the 234 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 9: John Carey al Gore race of two thousand and two 235 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 9: thousand and four, where it wasn't as much younger vote 236 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 9: putting in them over the finish line like we saw 237 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 9: with Obama. 238 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, Kaylee mentions the age issue here following 239 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 2: the debate. We should let everyone know by the way 240 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 2: you ran these numbers, the seventh and eighth, that's Sunday 241 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 2: and Monday. This week, we got a glimpse at what 242 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 2: could be at least a temporary new stump speech from 243 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 2: Donald Trump at his rally in Florida last evening, in 244 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 2: which she was referring to Biden Harris instead of just 245 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 2: Joe Biden. And he's introduced a nickname now for Kamala 246 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 2: Harris that refers to her laughing, he continues to misrepresent 247 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 2: her first name. We mispronounce her first name on the 248 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 2: regular and I wonder if that's something that we're going 249 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 2: to see born out in the numbers, as he acknowledges 250 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris as Joe Biden's partner. 251 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 9: Well, I think, and you know, who knows what's going 252 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 9: through former President Trump's mind, But this would be a 253 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 9: game changer. If you take Biden off the top of 254 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 9: the ticket, he might think, now Biden, President Biden thinks 255 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 9: that he's the best candidate to go against Trump. Trump 256 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 9: might think it's best to go against President Biden as 257 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 9: a rematch from twenty twenty. But if you change that up, 258 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 9: now we're shaking it up, and does Trump have a 259 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 9: ceiling at forty six forty seven percent? 260 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 6: And can some other Democrat come in. 261 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 9: Excite that base that is not excited right now, and 262 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 9: then actually springboard to a photo finish, because at this 263 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 9: point it's certainly in the numbers leaning towards Trump from 264 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 9: a national perspective. 265 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 5: But we know ultimately it's going to come down to 266 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,319 Speaker 5: the swing states that will decide the outcome when we're 267 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 5: thinking about the electoral college. Obviously, we saw some shifts 268 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 5: from the Cook Political report yesterday on six states, but 269 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 5: states that go beyond what we have our current understanding 270 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 5: as swing states. We're talking about New Hampshire. We've heard 271 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 5: suggestions from the Trump team that they think Virginia, possibly 272 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 5: even New York could be in play. What do you 273 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 5: think about that, Spencer, Should we expand our list? 274 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 6: Yeah, we've already opened up to Minnesota. 275 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 9: We had that race tied a couple of weeks ago 276 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 9: before the debate, and Minnesota hasn't gone for a Republican 277 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 9: since Nixon didn't even go for Reagan. So interesting to 278 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 9: see those states swinging. But the crux of the race 279 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 9: comes down to Arizona, Georgia. If the Republicans can take those, 280 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 9: then any of those other swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, 281 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 9: those all put the. 282 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 6: Race on a knife's edge. 283 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 9: So we'll see if Georgia and Arizona are shifting to 284 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 9: the right, if. 285 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 6: Any of those other states move in that direction as well. 286 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 2: Spencer, thanks for being with us. Always a pleasure to 287 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 2: run around the track with Spencer Kimball in new research 288 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 2: from Emerson College Polling Center, where he is director. Come 289 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 2: back and see us soon on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 290 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 2: A reminder that will be in Milwaukee starting Monday with 291 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 2: special coverage here the Republican National Convention all four days 292 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'll be there with Kaylee 293 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 2: starting high noon Monday, in Milwaukee. 294 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 295 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 296 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 297 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 298 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 299 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 5: Democrats try to coalesce around a strategy when it comes 300 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 5: to President Biden and whether they should be pushing him 301 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 5: to drop out or continue his re election campaign. Multiple 302 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 5: well networks are now reporting that campaign advisors, including the 303 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 5: likes of Steve Rochetti, will be meeting with Senate Democrats 304 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 5: for lunch tomorrow as they continue to try to push 305 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 5: their message on the Hill. And we know that some 306 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 5: Senate Democrats are getting quite antsy about the electoral probabilities 307 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 5: come November. Certainly one of those is Democratic Senator Michael 308 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 5: Bennett of Colorado, who had this to say on CNN 309 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 5: last night. 310 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 7: Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win the 311 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 7: selection and maybe win it by a landslide and take 312 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 7: with him the Senate and the House the White House. 313 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 7: In the time since that disastrous debate, I think has 314 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 7: done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan 315 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 7: to win the selection. 316 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 2: You can add another from the House as well. Now, 317 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 2: another Democrat. I believe it's number nine if we're keeping 318 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 2: count here, and that's Pat Ryan, the Democrat from New York. 319 00:15:55,640 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 2: Frontliner as they call them, considered a vulnerable democrat here 320 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 2: with the tweet Joe Biden is a patriot, but is 321 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 2: no longer the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. Let's 322 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: assemble our panel today for their take on this. Brad 323 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 2: Howard is with US, Democratic strategist and founder of Corkoran 324 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 2: Street Group, along with Jennifer Nasourus. Great to have you back, Jennifer, 325 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 2: republican strategist and former chair of the Massachusetts GOP, host 326 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 2: of the Political Contessa podcast. I could talk to you 327 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 2: both about lawmakers all day long. It doesn't seem to 328 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 2: be making that big of a difference at the moment, 329 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 2: at least for Joe Biden. But Brad, we find something 330 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 2: potentially much more damaging in the New York Times and 331 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 2: obed from George Clooney. If Joe Biden has lost Clooney, 332 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 2: where are we? 333 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 3: Well? 334 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 8: You know, I think all Americans are grateful that Hollywood 335 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 8: has stepped into this debate. Look, I mean what matters 336 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 8: is the presidents in her circle and the party leaders 337 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 8: and you know, voters, And I think as we're starting 338 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 8: to see, I think one of the interesting dynamics from 339 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 8: the debate is you didn't see a big loss or gain. 340 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 10: Among swing voters. In fact, Biden actually picked up a 341 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:05,719 Speaker 10: pointer or two among swing voters. 342 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 8: Because swing voters have had this concern about his age 343 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 8: from the beginning. 344 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 10: It's the base that has been. 345 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 8: Not really kind of willing to acknowledge it or has 346 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 8: seen the severity of it. It wasn't to the debate 347 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 8: when a lot of the base voters were faced with 348 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 8: his age and real. 349 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 10: Time and right in front of their face. 350 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 8: And so I think that is what's caused them to 351 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,120 Speaker 8: like kind of have this panic moment here. 352 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 10: And the President has spent the last week and I 353 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 10: have trying to assure those concerns. 354 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 8: I think he did stem the tide of this call 355 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 8: a little bit by getting the Black Caucus to so 356 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 8: firmly support him. That was kind of the kill shot 357 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 8: of the effort. I think in the House, it kept 358 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 8: Keen Jeffries from coming out and saying anything more. 359 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 10: Nancy Pelosi is getting close to full out calling on 360 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 10: him to step aside, but not quite there yet. 361 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,120 Speaker 8: So until either a Black Caucus leadership or a US 362 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 8: Senator directly calls and publicly call for him to step aside, 363 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:58,719 Speaker 8: Biden's going to be the nominee. 364 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 11: All right. 365 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 5: I feel like we should characterize George Clooney's involvement in 366 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 5: the Biden campaign because, yes, it is Hollywood, but he 367 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 5: was also just weeks ago out in California alongside Joe Biden. 368 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,239 Speaker 5: We just had an image of it up for you 369 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 5: on Bloomberg TV. Fundraising for him. He raised tens of 370 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 5: millions of dollars, and in this op ed, Clooney wrote, 371 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 5: in part, it's devastating to say it, but the Joe 372 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 5: Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser 373 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 5: was not the Joe big effing do Biden of twenty ten. 374 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 5: He wasn't the Biden of twenty twenty. He was the 375 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 5: same man we all witnessed at the debate, and this 376 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 5: fundraiser happened before the debate, Jennifer to bring you in here. 377 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,160 Speaker 5: If he is the same man that debated almost two 378 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,360 Speaker 5: weeks ago, for the rest of this election cycle, does 379 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 5: he stand any chance at all of defeating Donald Trump. 380 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 11: None, not at all. I mean I think that you know, 381 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 11: Donald Trump will win with historic numbers if Joe Biden 382 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 11: is the nominee for the Democratic Party. So if the 383 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 11: Democratic Party is trying to sink itself and go down 384 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 11: and become a pile of ashes, they're doing a great 385 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 11: job with keeping Joe Biden at the top here. So 386 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 11: I mean the guy that we saw at the debate, 387 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 11: the guy that was on TV just earlier today talking 388 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 11: about NATO and welcoming and starting the conference off. I mean, 389 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 11: that is the President of the United States. It is 390 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 11: an embarrassment. It is an embarrassment, not not just to 391 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 11: our country and the voters here, but on the international stage. 392 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 11: And we can't keep going down this trajectory. It's one 393 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 11: thing his terrible policies, but it's another thing to have 394 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 11: that man out there, and the Democratic Party is not 395 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 11: doing anything about it other than these calls for him 396 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 11: to resign. His inner circle needs to tell him to go. 397 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 11: And on the George Clooney front, I will say this, 398 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 11: that is Obama working behind the scenes talking to other 399 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 11: people in Hollywood and telling them that they have to 400 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 11: step in as well. 401 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 10: I live in Massachusetts. 402 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 11: Massachusetts governor said the debate was horrific. We have Seth Molton, 403 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 11: member of Congress who has called for Joe Biden to 404 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 11: step down up in Maine, Jared Golden, same thing. I mean, 405 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 11: we're seeing Democrats from blue states who are saying it's 406 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 11: time for him to go. 407 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 2: All right, Brad, I know you're going to want to 408 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 2: respond to this. We just heard a lot, obviously from 409 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 2: Jennifer here, but I want to get your impressions on 410 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 2: this potential for Obama involvement. Is George Clooney speaking for 411 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 2: the former president here. 412 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 8: Let me first say that the Republican friend here made 413 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 8: a lot of assumptions, a lot of incorrect statements. For instance, 414 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 8: Jared Golden has not called on the president's step aside. 415 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 8: He has concerned about his ability to win, but he's 416 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 8: not yet called from the step aside. And number two 417 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 8: for Republicans to try to guess. 418 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 10: What Obama is doing is rich. 419 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 8: Number Three, what is embarrassing is that there is a 420 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 8: major national political party in the United States says is 421 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 8: nominating that's going to nominate next week. 422 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 10: A guy with thirty one felony convictions. 423 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 8: The guy who is help civilly liable for a sexual 424 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 8: assault against a woman. That's what's embarrassing. The Republicans somehow 425 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 8: have the ability to hold their head high. What we 426 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 8: are debating here is whether we think we have the 427 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,360 Speaker 8: best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November and serve 428 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 8: this country for the next four years. 429 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,199 Speaker 10: That's a very fair reason, but that is not an 430 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 10: embarrassing debate. 431 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 8: I'll take this bait any day over what the Republicans 432 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 8: are about to do next week. 433 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 5: We've got some passion on the panel today. I love 434 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,360 Speaker 5: it both of you, Brad and Jennifer as we talk 435 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 5: about the idea of actual policy here, which was discussed 436 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 5: in the debate, although it was performance that ultimately stole 437 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 5: the narrative. We are seeing that President Biden and those 438 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 5: around him close to him seem to be pushing back 439 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 5: against the idea of him dropping out, talking about what 440 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 5: could happen in a second Trump presidency, including Project twenty 441 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 5: twenty five, something put out by the Heritage Foundation. It's 442 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 5: something that Trump himself has tried to distance himself from. 443 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 5: But Jennifer, do you actually believe that the former president 444 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 5: and presumptive Republican nominee actually doesn't agree with a lot 445 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 5: of those ideas, or it's Project twenty twenty five, at 446 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 5: least elements of it, something that could ultimately become a 447 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 5: reality if he wins. 448 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 11: No, I think that that is something that is coming 449 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 11: out of a very conservative think tank. That is not 450 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 11: something that Trump is as far as I know, and 451 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 11: we see. Look, what you need to rememb member is 452 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 11: that as a former president and the presumptive nominee of 453 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 11: the party, Donald Trump is the head of the Republican 454 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 11: Party right now. Whether you like it or you don't 455 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 11: like it, it doesn't matter. And what we saw come 456 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 11: out of the Platform Committee for the RNC is a 457 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 11: much softer platform than we have had in probably ten 458 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 11: or twelve years. And so I think you have to 459 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 11: really keep in mind that that is driven by Trump 460 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 11: and his understanding that of the forty three percent of 461 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 11: the electorate that considers themselves to be independent voters, he 462 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 11: needs to win those folks in order to win this race. 463 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 2: Brad, we've just got a minute. I want to ask 464 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 2: you about Kamala Harris. Her name hasn't really come up 465 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 2: this hour. She was out in Las Vegas with her 466 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 2: own rally in which she called out Project twenty twenty 467 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 2: five yesterday, quote a plan to limit access to contraception 468 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 2: and for a nationwide abortion band, with or without a 469 00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 2: lack of conference unquote in our remaining moment, how important 470 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 2: or the next two days for Kamala Harris. 471 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 8: Very important, real quick on Project twenty twenty twenty five. 472 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 8: What to pay attention to is not whether or not 473 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,239 Speaker 8: Donald Trump says he had anything to do with it. 474 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 8: Donald Trump has yet to fully denounce Project twenty twenty five. 475 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 8: He has said he has some concerns, but we don't 476 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 8: know what those concerns are. I call on him and 477 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 8: the Republicans to tell us what about that that they 478 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,679 Speaker 8: don't like. And number two, Kamala has been a terrific 479 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 8: vice president. I think the issue of choice is a 480 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 8: great one for her. It reminds voters what's at stake 481 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,360 Speaker 8: in this selection, and that is individual liberty and freedoms. 482 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 10: The Republican Party want to dictate to you how you 483 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 10: want to live your life. 484 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 8: If you look at twenty twenty five, it's full of 485 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 8: moralistic kind of. 486 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 10: Ideas on how they think you should live your life. 487 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 8: The Democrats are the ones that are trying to give 488 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 8: you the liberty to live your life and raise your 489 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 8: family how you see fit, and love who you want 490 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 8: to love. 491 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, Brad Howard, we will leave it there. 492 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 5: Thank you so much for joining us. Brad Howard, of course, 493 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,360 Speaker 5: as democratic strategist and founder of the Corkin Street Group. 494 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 5: Joined today by Jennifer Nasure, Republican strategist and former Massachusetts 495 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 5: GOP chair, host of the Political Contessa podcast Dialogue. It's 496 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 5: what we live for here. 497 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 2: That was great in Washington. It was great. 498 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 5: We got more great stuff coming up right here on 499 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,120 Speaker 5: Bloomberg TV and Radio. 500 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 501 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 502 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: and then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 503 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us live on YouTube. 504 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 2: We talk politics in Washington the Wednesday edition of Ballots 505 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 2: of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thanks for being 506 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 2: with us as we turn our attention to the NATO 507 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,959 Speaker 2: Summit that is now underway here in Washington. Joe Biden 508 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 2: holding forth a bit later on in a special dinner 509 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 2: with the more than thirty world leaders who are gathered 510 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 2: just a couple of blocks away from where we are 511 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 2: sitting here, with of course Ukraine on the agenda. This 512 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 2: is something we're going to be hearing a lot more 513 00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 2: about as NATO countries pledge this week to beat up 514 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 2: efforts to fund the war in Ukraine, with big questions 515 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 2: about creating a more definitive path toward NATO membership. In fact, 516 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 2: we heard from Vladimir Zelenski, the President of Ukraine yesterday 517 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,160 Speaker 2: at the NATO summit here he is it's time. 518 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 10: To sit out, to step out of the shadows. 519 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: To make strong decisions, work to act, and not to 520 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,640 Speaker 1: wait for November or any other months. 521 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 5: To this end, Zelensky calling for the NATO allies to 522 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 5: act now versus later, and we are seeing them take 523 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 5: some action now. In fact, yesterday it was announced by 524 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 5: President Biden and his speech addressing the summit, five long 525 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 5: range air defense systems for Ukraine, more Patriot missiles of course, 526 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 5: dozens of shorter range systems and missiles as well. The 527 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 5: question is how quickly can it make a difference, and 528 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 5: is this really what Ukraine needs the most? For those 529 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 5: questions and more, we turn out of Kelly Grico, who 530 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 5: is back with us here on Bloomberg. She has Stimpson 531 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 5: Center senior fellow with the Imagining US Grand Strategy program. Kelly, 532 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 5: always great to talk to you. We obviously got the 533 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 5: news on those long range air defense systems. We know 534 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 5: that air defense is what Zelensky has been pushing very 535 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 5: hard for. You got five of them. How much of 536 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 5: a difference does it make? 537 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 12: Yeah, so thank you for having me. Yes, it is 538 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 12: an important announcement. These are five systems. Four of them 539 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 12: will be Patriot batteries, which is quite significant, Another one 540 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 12: will be a SAMTE which is also a long range system, 541 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 12: and also dozens of other tactical air defense systems. So 542 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 12: this is a very significant investment. What we don't know 543 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 12: exactly is what version of the Patriot system these are, 544 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 12: where they're coming from, so how long it will take 545 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 12: and in terms of impact, it really depends on how 546 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 12: they're going to use them, and I have some questions 547 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 12: about that, particularly given F sixteens might be arriving in 548 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 12: the country. Will these Patriots systems be used to protect 549 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 12: air bases that are hosting the F sixteens or are 550 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,119 Speaker 12: they going to be used to protect the cities and 551 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 12: the energy infrastructure. If the latter, then it could have 552 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 12: a significant impact. 553 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 2: Kelly, it's great to have you back. You mentioned the 554 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 2: F sixteen's US made fighter jets from Denmark and the 555 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,360 Speaker 2: Netherlands on their way, and we're apparently talking about sending 556 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 2: even more. You're the first person we ever talked about 557 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 2: this idea with here on balance of power, and you 558 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 2: question their effectiveness and whether they were consistent with the 559 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,199 Speaker 2: strategy in Ukraine. There's reporting now from Bloomberg just in 560 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,400 Speaker 2: the past couple of days they don't have enough pilots 561 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 2: who are prepared to fly these jets. They don't even 562 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 2: have enough prospective pilots to train. So what are we 563 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 2: doing here? 564 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 12: This is a great question, you know, I have this 565 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,119 Speaker 12: question myself. You know, we know that there's about twenty 566 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 12: pilots that will graduate by the end of the year. 567 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,360 Speaker 12: There's about sixty aircraft roughly that are being donated by countries, 568 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 12: so that's about you know, three aircraft per pilot, which 569 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,120 Speaker 12: is the opposite of sort of what you would want 570 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 12: for the numbers, because usually pilots get quired before the aircraft, 571 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 12: you know, so it's going to be a small contribution, 572 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 12: especially at first, and I think it's noticeable that you 573 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 12: can see the Ukraine's trying to scale back expectations. So 574 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 12: they're talking now about using these largely in an air 575 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,479 Speaker 12: defense role, so to intercept shah head drones and cruise missiles. 576 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 12: And I'll just note that's an expensive way to do that. 577 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 12: You know, we'll see how this plays out. But I think, 578 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 12: you know, there are concerns about is this investment worth 579 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 12: it long term? You know, Ukraine will need an air force, 580 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 12: but certainly in the short term, is this really worth 581 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 12: The impact it will have operationally on the battlefield is 582 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 12: going to be marginal compared to the amount of effort 583 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 12: that is going into. 584 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 6: This for sure. 585 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 5: Okay, So, Kelly, if it's a question of investment versus reward, 586 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 5: what kind of investment would read greater reward for for Ukraine? 587 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 5: What could it more use that perhaps it isn't getting 588 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 5: right now. 589 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 12: Well, I think it's actually an investment that allies can provide, 590 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 12: which is manpower, personnel. This is still an issue that 591 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 12: Ukraine is dealing with, which is you know, trying to 592 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 12: recruit and mobilize forces. I thought it was quite interesting 593 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,880 Speaker 12: that Ukraine and Poland signed a security arrangement this week 594 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 12: and one of the things that was included with Poland 595 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 12: singling that it would send back Ukrainians that are are 596 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 12: you know, eligible for service back to Ukraine, and it hosts, 597 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 12: of course, many refugees. So the personnel issues are very 598 00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 12: significant because this is really a war of attrition. Beyond that, obviously, 599 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 12: air defense matters a lot, but we're really getting in 600 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 12: a hard place now sending more air defense systems, including 601 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 12: anti air missiles. 602 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 11: You know. 603 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,479 Speaker 12: Biden again last night said Ukraine's going to cut the 604 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,959 Speaker 12: line in new anti air missiles that are coming out 605 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 12: of factories and be the first to get them. And 606 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 12: that means Ukraine's getting them and not other allies and partners, 607 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 12: whether that's Taiwan or Japan or Israel. 608 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, to put a finer point on this, and I 609 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 2: hate to belabor the F sixteen's here, but we've got 610 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 2: seventy nine that have been committed so far, seventy nine 611 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 2: jets just this week, Zelenski said here in Washington, quote 612 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 2: until we have one hundred and twenty eight, we will 613 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 2: not be able to match them in the skies and 614 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 2: it will be difficult. Unquote. Does he believe the Pentagon 615 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 2: or is the Pentagon not being honest with him on this. 616 00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 12: Well, I think we've seen that the Ukrainians, and this 617 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 12: is understandable given they're fighting a war, their tendency is 618 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 12: to sort of keep raising what their needs are. When 619 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 12: they have something, they're not completely satisfied and they want more, 620 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 12: and that's understandable because they are fighting a war. You know, 621 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 12: at the end of the day, though the F sixteen 622 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 12: is a fourth generation aircraft, the Russians have very advanced 623 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 12: air defense systems, and so there's always going to be 624 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 12: an issue of the fact that the F sixteen against 625 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 12: these very advanced Russian air defense is going to be 626 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 12: vulnerable to being shot down when it's being operated most 627 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 12: of affectively in the sky. And we're already seeing the 628 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 12: Russians are going after have increased attacks on air bases 629 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 12: in preparation for the Ukraine's receiving these these jets and 630 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 12: so they're getting prepared to target them on the ground 631 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 12: as well. So, you know, I understand that Zelenski wants more, 632 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 12: but the question is where are smart investments. Because there's 633 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 12: only so much money as well available, where are the 634 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,560 Speaker 12: smart places to be able to really support Ukraine's effort 635 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 12: to the maximum gain. 636 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 5: Well, and to such a large extent, Kelly. What we're 637 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 5: talking about here is supporting Ukraine's defensive effort, things like 638 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 5: intercepting missiles, et cetera. There's also the question of offense. 639 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 5: Knowing we have seen a change in at least US 640 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 5: administration policy when it comes to Ukraine offensively striking certain 641 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 5: targets within Russia. What started narrower has broadened a bit. 642 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:53,960 Speaker 5: But for Ukraine to actually win the war, is that 643 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 5: the real conversation that needs to be had. 644 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 12: I think the real conversation that needs to be had 645 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 12: is actually what winning the war means, and that should 646 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 12: be a political defined politically. It should be an independent 647 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 12: Ukraine in Ukraine that's able to keep as much recapture 648 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 12: as much territory as possiful, but it's going to have 649 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 12: to acknowledge that it's probably not going to recapture every 650 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 12: last bit of territory, and I know that is horrible, 651 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,120 Speaker 12: But the reality on the ground is that you just 652 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,400 Speaker 12: can't overcome certain realities, which is that Russia has more personnel, 653 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,960 Speaker 12: it's able to sustain its war economy. It's been really 654 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 12: ramping it up, whereas Western support is really reaching sort 655 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 12: of some of its maximums, and so those realities. No 656 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 12: matter what we want to do and how we want 657 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 12: this outcome to be, we have to come to terms 658 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 12: with that and think about how can we prepare Ukraine 659 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 12: to really position itself to get the best deal possible 660 00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 12: in some kind of negotiated settlement. Because I think it's 661 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 12: quite clear at this point that this war is headed 662 00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 12: for that. It's just a question of what that's. 663 00:32:59,520 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 10: Going to look like. 664 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 2: Really interesting, as we spend time with Kelly Grico at 665 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 2: the Stimpson Center, so many people are talking about the 666 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 2: news conference that Joe Biden is going to be holding 667 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,959 Speaker 2: tomorrow at the conclusion Kelly of this NATO summit. I 668 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,479 Speaker 2: suspect a lot, if not all, of the questions are 669 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 2: going to be about his age, his mental acuity, and 670 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 2: some of the related political issues that we've been dealing 671 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 2: with since the debate here in Washington. How about policy 672 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,960 Speaker 2: toward Ukraine. What would you ask Joe Biden if you 673 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 2: were a reporter in the crowd tomorrow, I would ask. 674 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 12: Him what the long term strategy is. Rather than simply 675 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 12: saying that it's as long as it takes, I'd like 676 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 12: to know what the theory of victory is now for 677 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 12: Ukraine and for its Western supporters, how does this look 678 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 12: in the end and how are we getting there? 679 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 5: Isn't that not really though? For the US president whoever 680 00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 5: they are to decide, Kelly, is that not up to Selenski? 681 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 12: You know, I know that we say that and to 682 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,479 Speaker 12: a certain amount, Gregory, That's true. It's up to Ukraine 683 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,239 Speaker 12: to decide, you know, battlefield strategy and to decide, you know, 684 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:11,840 Speaker 12: a political settlement is gonn. 685 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 9: Accept it or not. 686 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 12: But we, as significant backers of that, have choices to 687 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,360 Speaker 12: make about our own support and what we're willing to 688 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,080 Speaker 12: support or not. We may decide that we're not willing 689 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 12: to provide endless support that would be required perhaps to 690 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,360 Speaker 12: take back large portions of territory, if that was even possible, 691 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,839 Speaker 12: And so we need to actually have really honest conversations 692 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 12: about that, because our interests are aligned with Ukraine, but 693 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 12: they're not identical and that's just the reality of alliances 694 00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,359 Speaker 12: and coalition partnerships, and so we need to actually look 695 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 12: at that and make sure that both sides understand that reality. 696 00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:55,439 Speaker 2: Trump proofing is the buzz phrase, if I can call 697 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,359 Speaker 2: it that at this NATO summit love him or hate him, 698 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,400 Speaker 2: world leaders are talking about, Kelly, what would a Trump 699 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 2: reelection mean for NATO. 700 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 12: Well, let me just first say that Trump proofing is 701 00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 12: talked about extensively in this town, particularly with allies, whether 702 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 12: it's in Europe or Asia. As I will say to 703 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 12: them often, I do not believe trump proofing is possible. 704 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 12: I just think that's not a reality and practice. I 705 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 12: think what's clear is that a Trump presidency would result 706 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 12: in a massive scaling back of support for Ukraine, possibly 707 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 12: an ending a material support for Ukraine. And even more significantly, 708 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,880 Speaker 12: it would result in I think a draw down, a 709 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:42,240 Speaker 12: shifting of security responsibilities dramatically from the United States to Europe. 710 00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,960 Speaker 12: Would it result in a withdrawal formal withdrawal from NATO? 711 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 5: I do not know. 712 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,319 Speaker 12: Maybe, but I think even short of that, it's going 713 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,640 Speaker 12: to be a real emphasis on Europe, which is, these 714 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 12: are wealthy countries really spending more on defense and providing 715 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,600 Speaker 12: for their own security, particularly so that the United States 716 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 12: can focus on some of the really significant security threats 717 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,320 Speaker 12: emerging in the end of Pacific. 718 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,440 Speaker 5: Just finally, Kelly, as you were talking about how you 719 00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 5: would ask President Biden to get serious if you will 720 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 5: about what exactly the endgame is when it comes to 721 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,120 Speaker 5: US support for Ukraine. Given what we have heard from 722 00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 5: Donald Trump about this, aside from his suggestion he could 723 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,880 Speaker 5: solve this war make an end on day one of 724 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 5: his presidency, does he seem to be talking about it 725 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,720 Speaker 5: more realistically than Biden does at this point. 726 00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,759 Speaker 12: Well, I don't think, you know, the idea of ending 727 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 12: the war overnight is you know, you know, realistic. I 728 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,400 Speaker 12: think that there is a bit more public recognition of 729 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,879 Speaker 12: some of the inherent limits on US support. I think 730 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 12: I think that's a reality. What I think is not 731 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 12: as realistic in certain terms of Trump is maybe overestimating 732 00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 12: US influence and its ability to actually end the war. 733 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 12: You know, yes, we're providing a lot of material support, 734 00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 12: but we're not the only actor really involved in this 735 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 12: in Europe provide significant support at this point to Ukraine 736 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 12: as well. So our ability, you know, we're accustomed to, 737 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,359 Speaker 12: you know, for many decades, being the sort of most 738 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,439 Speaker 12: powerful actor in the world, and we kind of get 739 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 12: to say how things are gonna turn out. We're no 740 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 12: longer in that place anymore, and so I think that's 741 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 12: an adjustment, not just for Donald Trump, but sort of 742 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,280 Speaker 12: for all of us as Americans. 743 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,720 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to take a deep dive with Kelly Grico. 744 00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:26,880 Speaker 2: It's good to see you, Kelly. Thanks for your insights, 745 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:31,200 Speaker 2: today's Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program 746 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:36,400 Speaker 2: at the Stimson Center. Thanks for listening to the Balance 747 00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,040 Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 748 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and 749 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:46,040 Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 750 00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.