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Game one of the second round series between 51 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: the Pacers and the Cavs, which I think is going 52 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 2: to be an underrated, fun series, and then a very 53 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 2: very important, very big Game seven between the Rockets and 54 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 2: the Warriors. On several fronts, I think I am personally 55 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,679 Speaker 2: very much rooting for Golden State to win that game. 56 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: I think they have a I think they match up 57 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: in a very interesting way with Minnesota, and I think 58 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 2: that would be a very interesting second round series. And 59 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 2: as you start to go through some of the matchups 60 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 2: in the second round with New York and Boston, Oklahoma 61 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 2: City and Denver, who we're going to talk about today, 62 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: Oklahoma City is a minus seven hundred favorite in that series. 63 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 2: Cleveland is a substantial favorite over Indiana. I think that 64 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 2: Minnesota versus Golden State is what the basketball world needs 65 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 2: for an interesting second round series. I think Houston would 66 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 2: get demolished if they ran into Minnesota in the next round. 67 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 2: But we have an awesome night of games tonight. Remember 68 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 2: our schedule tonight looks a little bit different because we 69 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: have I'm working with Colin right after the final buzzer 70 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: of the Warriors Rockets game. Then we're going to go 71 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 2: live on YouTube after I get done with Colin, and 72 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: then we're also going to go on playback after that 73 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 2: to take questions and get interactive with the audience. So 74 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: that's a schedule for tonight. In this episode, this morning 75 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: series preview for Denver versus Oklahoma City, we're going to 76 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: get into that series from every single angle, and then 77 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 2: we'll get out of here and go enjoy those games. 78 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 2: You guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe 79 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: to Hoops and YouTube channels. You don't miss any more 80 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 2: of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore json LTC. 81 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 2: You guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about a 82 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 2: podcast few wherever we get your podcast. 83 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 3: On Hoops Tonight. 84 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 2: It's also super helpful if you leave your rating and 85 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 2: a review on that front. Jackson's doing great work on 86 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Make 87 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: sure you guys follow us there. And the last but 88 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 2: not least, keep dropping mail bag questions in our YouTube 89 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 2: comments so we can keep getting to them throughout the 90 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 2: remainder of the postseason. 91 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 3: All right, let's talk some basketball. 92 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: So the season series between Denver and OKC a rare 93 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 2: example of a series preview where the regular season information 94 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: is somewhat applicable. Most of the core players for both 95 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 2: teams played in all four games. For Denver, Jamal Murray 96 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: missed one, Aaron Gordon missed two, and for OKC, Hertenstein 97 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: missed two games. But other than that, the core rotation 98 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 2: players for both teams played. They went two and two. 99 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 2: Each team won on each other's floor once. The stars 100 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: for both teams looked great at different points and struggle 101 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,799 Speaker 2: at different points. So, for instance, in the first Denver 102 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 2: win back in November, the Nuggets did an awesome job 103 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 2: defending Shae Gilds of Alexander. They had him out of 104 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 2: sorts for most of the second half. Christian Brown did 105 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 2: a great job. They forced him into a bunch of turnovers, 106 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 2: Denver methodically walked OKC down. That was a game where 107 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 2: Shay struggled right in the other win for Oklahoma City, 108 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 2: or the other game in back in November. Then Oklahoma 109 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 2: City won, Chet kicked Jokic's ass, and the Thunder defense 110 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 2: shut down shut down the Denver offense, and they ended 111 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 2: up winning that game in convincing fashion. But both of 112 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 2: those games were very early in the season. They met 113 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 2: twice later in the season. The first game was close 114 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 2: until the fourth quarter and then the Thunder blitzed them 115 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 2: with their bench group. Ironically, a lot of really high 116 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: level play from Keson Wallace and Alex Cruso during that stretch. 117 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 2: But then they played again a couple nights later, and 118 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 2: that game was close until the second half when the 119 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 2: Nuggets successfully deployed a very gimmicky zone defense where they 120 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 2: double team Shay crossing half court. 121 00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 3: We'll talk a little bit about that. 122 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 2: Down Oklahoma City's offense, Denver started getting out in transition. 123 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 2: Denver scored one hundred and forty points in that game 124 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 2: to get a win. So a lot of really interesting 125 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 2: data in favor of both teams coming from the regular season. 126 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 2: Actual big picture data. In the four games, Denver averaged 127 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve points per one hundred possessions on offense. 128 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 2: Oklahoma City averaged one hundred and eighteen. Denver did win 129 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 2: the rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty two point two percent 130 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: of available rebounds thirty two point two percent of their 131 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 2: own misses. That's obviously going to be a big factor 132 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 2: in this series odds. Again, all of our odds are 133 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 2: provided by DraftKings. Oklahoma City's minus seven hundred to win 134 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 2: this series. That's a substantial favorite. Boston, by the way, 135 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 2: for comparison, is minus eight hundred to beat the Knicks, 136 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 2: so they view the nuggets chances to beat Oklahoma City 137 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 2: as roughly the same as New York's chances to beat Boston. 138 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: I disagree with that. I think that there's good value 139 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 2: in the betting market for Denver here. Denver at plus 140 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 2: five hundred as the underdog. 141 00:06:59,160 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 3: I like that bet. 142 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 2: I think the thunder deserve to be a pretty substantial favorite, 143 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 2: But I think Denver has a much better chance to 144 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 2: upset Oklahoma City than New York does to upset Boston. 145 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 2: A really simple way for me to describe it is 146 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 2: Jokic puts so much pressure on Oklahoma City's defense. That 147 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 2: is a problem Oklahoma City can't really solve. They have 148 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 2: to overcome it by winning other parts of the series. 149 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 2: With New York versus Boston, they don't have a single 150 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 2: thing that they do well enough to present Boston with 151 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 2: those sorts of issues. So I don't agree with those 152 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 2: odds being as similar as they are. I would have 153 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 2: put Oklahoma City in more of that like minus three 154 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: hundred minus three point fifty kind of range. So I 155 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 2: do think there's some interesting betting value on Denver in 156 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 2: this series. Oklahoma City on offense, so the matchups are 157 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 2: going to look like this. We'll see Christian Brown on 158 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 2: Shae for most of the series, Aaron Gordon on Jdubb, 159 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 2: although I think they might consider mixing that up if 160 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 2: they start getting killed on the back line and they 161 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 2: might have to consider putting, you know, putting you know, 162 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 2: either an extra guard on the floor like Russell Westbrook 163 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 2: and taking Michael Porter Junior off and having to have 164 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 2: him guard Ja Dubb. Just I wouldn't be surprised if 165 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 2: they got a little gimmicky to try to keep Aaron 166 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 2: Gordon closer to the basket. But I do think Aaron 167 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 2: Gordon will start the series on j DUB, Jamal Moorey 168 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 2: Murray will start on Lou Dort, although we'll also probably 169 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: see Jamal Murray spend some time on Chet Holmgren. Michael 170 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 2: Porter Junior will start on Chet Holmgren, and Nicole Jokich 171 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,079 Speaker 2: will start on Isaiah Hartenstein. Defending shake Yildes was Alexander. 172 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 2: It's gonna be a steady diet of Christian Brown. We're 173 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 2: gonna see a mix of at the level coverages, deeper 174 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 2: drop coverages in his own looks, and again, all that 175 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 2: means is in the ball screen. Christian Brown's constantly going 176 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,839 Speaker 2: to be chasing Shaye over the top, but we'll see 177 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 2: Jokic come up all the way to the level of 178 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,719 Speaker 2: the screen sometimes and then we'll see him sitting a 179 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 2: little bit further back, meeting Shay closer to like the elbow, 180 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 2: like around the foul line area. Shaye did kind of 181 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 2: have Christian Brown figured out in their last two games. 182 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 2: He started beating him just one on one to the basket. 183 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 2: He was getting more separation. But Brown did have success 184 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 2: against Shaye earlier in the season. He was able to 185 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 2: apply some good ball pressure and back pressure that that 186 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 2: cast some issues for Shaye. So that's gonna be a 187 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 2: big swing factor in the series. Just how good of 188 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 2: a job can Christian Brown do on Shae? How physical 189 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 2: is he allowed to be? How much success can he 190 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:23,439 Speaker 2: have using his size and strength on ball against Shae. 191 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 3: In pick and roll. 192 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: The higher that Yokic comes out to the level, the 193 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,439 Speaker 2: more likely he is to get split. And there were 194 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 2: a lot of examples, And what I mean by that 195 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 2: is like you can imagine Shae coming off of a 196 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 2: ball screen. Yokic comes up to the level, but Shae 197 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 2: just comes off the ball screen and then quickly crosses 198 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 2: over and shoots that gap between the screener and Yokic 199 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 2: when he's up there at the level. And there were 200 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 2: several examples on film where Jokic when he came out 201 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 2: that high did get beat pretty badly by Shaye. And 202 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 2: in those situations, their defense completely fell apart and they 203 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 2: started giving up layups. But Jokic did lock some quality 204 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 2: possessions on tape. He was able to successfully protect the 205 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 2: rim against Shae in a deeper drop, not a full 206 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 2: deep drop where he's like on his heels all the 207 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: way back at the rim, but rather meeting Shae closer 208 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: to like the foul line area, where he's kind of 209 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 2: like in a stance that's kind of funneling him towards 210 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 2: the side of the rim that they're already on, like 211 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 2: towards the sideline, so to speak. And in that situation, 212 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 2: he can actually generate some contact with Shae before he 213 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 2: gets to the rim, which can prevent Shae from really 214 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 2: getting explosive downhill. And he actually had some really nice 215 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 2: rim protection possessions against Shae in that kind of like 216 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 2: middle drop where he's meeting him more in the middle. 217 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 3: Of the floor. 218 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 2: I think we'll see a lot of mixing up coverages. 219 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 2: I think the deeper drop will be a base coverage 220 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 2: for Denver, but I think they'll mix in the occasional blitz. 221 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 2: I think they will mix in some at the level stuff. 222 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 2: I think they'll mix in zone, out of timeout, out 223 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 2: of dead ball situations. We'll talk some more about the 224 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: zone coverages here in a little bit. Jalen Williams, I 225 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,719 Speaker 2: think we'll see more of a deeper drop against him 226 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,439 Speaker 2: as well. It's been a mixed with Jalen Williams in 227 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 2: ball screens against Denver this year like, there are possessions 228 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 2: where he does a nice job of baiting Jokic to 229 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 2: step out, and he can create really easy lobs for 230 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 2: Isaiah Hartenstein. But he was also the guy who was 231 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 2: quick to settle for some tough contested mid range jump 232 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 2: shots early in the clock. One of the things I 233 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 2: noticed on film was that OKC got really good looks 234 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 2: for j Dub and for Isaiah Hartenstein out of cleared 235 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 2: side pick and roll. Denver likes to load up the paint, 236 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 2: so if you run pick and Roll in a way 237 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 2: that the roleman is rolling towards the middle of the floor, 238 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: Denver can properly congest things around there. But when they 239 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 2: had Jadub like coming out of the corner with Hartenstein 240 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 2: screening and Hartenstein popping or rolling through to like the 241 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 2: short corner on the baseline side, when that entire side 242 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 2: is unoccupied so that there's no help defender, they were 243 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 2: able to get lobs and easy opportunities for Hartenstein rolling 244 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 2: because Denver couldn't properly load up on the rollman when 245 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 2: they actually cleared the side. I think that's an action 246 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 2: that will see quite a bit. Doesn't even have to 247 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,080 Speaker 2: necessarily be a ball screen. It can just literally be 248 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 2: j Dub in the corner. Isaah Hartenstein gets a pass 249 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 2: out towards the top of the key the thunder space 250 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 2: on the weak side, and then Hartenstein just dribbles into 251 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 2: a dribble handoff with Jay Dubb coming out of that 252 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 2: right corner, and then just rolls hard to the rim. 253 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: They actually did get quite a bit of vertical spacing 254 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 2: opportunity from Isaiah Hartenstein in general in this matchup, in particular, 255 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 2: in large part because Aaron Gordon is pulled away from 256 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 2: the rim to guard j Dub in so many of 257 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 2: these situations, I think we'll see a lot of screening 258 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 2: action for Chet. Chet didn't just say see Michael Porter Jr. 259 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 2: Like I talked about earlier. He saw a good amount 260 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 2: of Jamal Murray in this in this series, and both 261 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 2: of those guys can be really sloppy or lazy navigating screens, 262 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 2: sometimes communicating through switches. Chet got a lot of advantage 263 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: opportunities slipping out of those screens, and so I look 264 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 2: for Oklahoma City to use Chet as a way to 265 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 2: attack Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior. Throughout the series. 266 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 2: They'll run like wide pinned downs too, so like they'll 267 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 2: have like they'll they'll literally just put you know, Chet 268 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 2: in the right corner and they'll have Dorts screen down 269 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 2: for him so that they have Jamal Murray and Michael 270 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 2: Porter Junior defending an off ball action And all it 271 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 2: takes is one of those guys to be lazy and 272 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 2: there's a or to botch of communication and they can 273 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 2: get an advantage for Chet there. And the biggest thing 274 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 2: for Chet's just gonna be is three point shooting. If 275 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 2: Denver gets to the point where they feel like they 276 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 2: can ignore him off ball, that could be a big 277 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 2: swing in this series. And that's gonna be a big 278 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 2: swing for a bunch of these guys. Dort Caruso is 279 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 2: a big one. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we 280 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 2: saw Denver do some JANKI stuff like just putting Jokic 281 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 2: on Alex Caruso and having him sit in the paint 282 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: like a lot of those guys are gonna have to 283 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 2: hit shots. Hiding Yokic on a non shooter is gonna 284 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 2: be one of the janky things that we see Denver try. 285 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: I think we're gonna see a lot of that kind 286 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:44,319 Speaker 2: of like janky experimental stuff like I think we'll see zone. 287 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 2: We'll see traditional zone, but I think we'll also see 288 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 2: that double teaming zone that we saw in their fourth 289 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 2: game this year. And again, all it was was they 290 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 2: basically just treated it as a two to three where 291 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 2: Hart and Seign would be back in the paint. They'd 292 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 2: have two guys on the wings and the two guys 293 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 2: at the top of the zone as soon as Shae 294 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 2: crossed half court, which is double team in and then 295 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 2: those guys, the three guys that were on the back line, 296 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 2: they would come up to like bait them as decision makers, 297 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 2: but they were willing to concede pretty much any jump 298 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: shot above the break or in that like elbow area, 299 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 2: and Okay sees offense really fell apart in that stretch. 300 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 2: It's just kind of a weird situation to get your 301 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 2: shots out of or like you're taking a wide open 302 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 2: above the break three but there's players behind you on 303 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 2: the play like it just kind of feels weird and 304 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 2: it can get guys out of rhythm. I think we'll 305 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 2: see some of that as well. I mentioned hiding Yokic 306 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 2: on a non shooter processing is gonna be big, Like 307 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 2: Denver knows they haven't experience an IQ advantage in this series, 308 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 2: and I expect them to try to exploit that through 309 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 2: jankie schemes. But this is a smarter Oklahoma City team 310 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 2: than they were last year. I was really impressed in 311 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: general with how they handled Memphis. Memphis is very similarly 312 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 2: to Denver, a team that likes to load up the 313 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 2: strong side and force you to beat them with the pass, 314 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 2: and there were several There were several examples in this 315 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 2: in that first round series and over the course of 316 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 2: the season where I've seen Oklahoma City show a lot 317 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 2: of growth processing in the middle of the floor, meaning 318 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 2: like when Shay hits the role man, when a guy 319 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: cuts in or flashes into the middle of the lane 320 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 2: out of a Shay double team, like those guys are 321 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 2: just quickly reading the floor and making the appropriate kickout passes, 322 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 2: hitting cutters, hitting three point shooters on the weak side. 323 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 3: Okay. 324 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 2: See, he is a lot more mature offensively than they 325 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 2: were this time last year Denver. On offense, I think 326 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 2: we'll see Lou dort On, Jamal Murray, Isaai Harten, sign On, 327 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 2: Jokich chet On, Aaron Gordon, J dubb On, Christian Brown 328 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 2: and Shay on Michael Porter Junior. Although we could see 329 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 2: some of those matchups get kind of reconfigured. I wouldn't 330 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 2: be surprised if we saw Chet end up spending more 331 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 2: time on Christian Brown and Jay dub on Aaron Gordon. 332 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 2: If Aaron Gordon has some success posting up on Chet 333 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:47,359 Speaker 2: just using his size and strength, we'll see Aaron Gordon attacking. 334 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 2: You know, perceived mismatches in the post is a big 335 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 2: part of what Denver will look to do in the playoffs. 336 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 2: Yo Kitchen the Post is going to be a really 337 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 2: interesting part of this series. This will be a series 338 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 2: where I think we see Yo Kitchen the Post more 339 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 2: than usual. Again, we talked about it in the Clipper series. 340 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 2: It's a different type of matchup with Zoo, but this 341 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 2: is going to be a series where I think we 342 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 2: see a ton of Jokis post ups. I was digging 343 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 2: through the film today. Jokic including passes, posted up sixty 344 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 2: two times versus Oklahoma City in four games. That's over 345 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 2: fifteen possessions per game. He averaged about ten post ups 346 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 2: per game in the regular season, so he posts up 347 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 2: about fifty percent more often in this matchup than he 348 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 2: does in on average throughout the league. He's gonna be 349 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 2: much more comfortable versus Hartenstein and Chet than he was 350 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 2: against Zoo. And it really is going to come down 351 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 2: to double teams. The Thunder are going to double team, 352 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 2: and then it's going to be a contest between can 353 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 2: ok See be physical and rotate and close those windows 354 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 2: quickly and rush Denver's role players into making mistakes or 355 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 2: missing shots, or is Denver gonna quickly process and bounce 356 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 2: the ball around and get great looks out of it. 357 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: And for the record, I think we're gonna see a 358 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 2: bunch of both in this series. One of the I'm 359 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 2: you know, we'll talk about it when I get to 360 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 2: my pick, but I'm expecting a longer series, and I 361 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 2: think this is gonna oscily back and forth between stretches 362 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 2: where Denver's really scoring the ball well and they look 363 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 2: in control, and then stretches where Okac is successfully rushing 364 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 2: them into mistakes, and then Oklahoma City starts to take control. 365 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 2: But starting out of those Denver double teams, that's going 366 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 2: to be that battle of like quick processing and play 367 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 2: finishing versus physicality and speed in rotation, and just which 368 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 2: one of those dynamics ends up controlling getting lou Dort 369 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,199 Speaker 2: off of Jamal Murray's gonna be big. Denver is an 370 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 2: excellent screening team and that's gonna be key in this series. 371 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 2: When if Jokic and Christian Brown and other guards can 372 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 2: set good hard screens, they get lou Dort separated off 373 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 2: of Jamal Murray, he's gonna be comfortable and he's gonna 374 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 2: make a lot of good stuff happen. But if Okac 375 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 2: can stay attached to Jamal, they can speed him up, 376 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 2: they can cause him to lose balance on his base 377 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 2: and he can start to misshots and turn the ball over. 378 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 2: And there were stretches in the series in the season 379 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 2: series where Murray looks comfortable, and then there were stretches 380 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 2: where he looked really uncomfortable. And again, it's going to 381 00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 2: swing on that specific dynamic off ball attentiveness. Okay, he's 382 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:01,120 Speaker 2: gonna be big. 383 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 3: Okay. 384 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 2: See held up pretty well off ball tracking cutters in 385 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 2: the last two games of the season against Denver, but 386 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 2: they got absolutely shredded by cutters in the two games 387 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 2: back in November. If you get caught ball watching against Jokich, 388 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 2: that's death. That's gonna be a big part of Oklahoma 389 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 2: City's attention to detail in this series. The Thunder's best 390 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 2: path to taking care of business in this matchup is 391 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 2: that pressure and speed dynamic, picking up Jamal Murray full court, 392 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 2: wearing him out over the course of the series, speeding 393 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 2: up Denver's role players, playing Michael Porter Junior into a 394 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 2: bad offensive series, staying disciplined with Russell Westbrook. You're athletic 395 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 2: enough to play Russ into a bad series. Russ isn't 396 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 2: going to have the same kinds of advantages in this 397 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 2: series athletically that he's had in many situations this year 398 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 2: for Denver. Right, So, there's only so much you can 399 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 2: do to speed up Yokich. But the other guys are 400 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 2: very susceptible to okay See's speed and physicality on the perimeter, 401 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 2: and that's where Oklahoma City needs to really leverage that 402 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 2: that strength. Lastly, for Oklahoma City, got I work as 403 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 2: a team to keep Denver off the glass. Denver rebounded 404 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,479 Speaker 2: almost a third of their own misses in this matchup 405 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 2: in the regular season. If they get killed there, that 406 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,679 Speaker 2: could be something that turns into an important margin for Denver. 407 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 2: I'm picking okay See in seven. I think this series 408 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 2: will oscillate back and forth on the engine that is 409 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 2: Denver's offense. Denver's offense is more than good enough to 410 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 2: beat elite defense. The Clippers or the third best defense 411 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 2: in the league this season, and Denver eviscerated them on 412 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 2: that end of the floor in the wins in the series. 413 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 2: With the ookch on the floor, they had a one 414 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 2: to twenty one offensive rating against the top three defense 415 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 2: in the NBA. I think there will be stretches, especially 416 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 2: in Denver, where the Nuggets look in control because they're 417 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 2: just scoring the ball and controlling flow. But I also 418 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 2: think we'll see extended stretches of the series where Oklahoma 419 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 2: City's Denver speeds up. Denver causes them issues on offense 420 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 2: with their physicality and their ball pressure, then Okay see 421 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 2: starts playing with pace, and then they're in control. Oklahoma 422 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 2: City does have more talented basketball players. They have a 423 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 2: better bench, they have real rim protection, they have better 424 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 2: point of attack defenders, they have more reliable offense down 425 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 2: the roster. Like this, this team has a lot of talent. 426 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,639 Speaker 2: Their defense has a level of consistency to it that 427 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 2: will keep them in every game. There's gonna be a 428 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 2: lot of half court action in this series, where we're 429 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 2: watching guys like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior fighting 430 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 2: for their lives trying to guard guys like Jadab and 431 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 2: Cheed Holmgren. They're going to have a hard time in 432 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 2: that matchup. Overall, I think Oklahoma City is smart enough 433 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 2: to handle this. I think they're gonna process very well 434 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 2: in this series. I think it's gonna be very fun. 435 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,199 Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be back and forth, but I 436 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 2: think Oklahoma City will end up closing this out in 437 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 2: seven games. The pathway for Denver, and again, I do 438 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,439 Speaker 2: think this is a real pathway. I would not be 439 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,640 Speaker 2: I would be a little surprised if Denver won the series. 440 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 2: I would not be stunned or shocked. Jokic needs to 441 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 2: assert himself as the best player in the series early 442 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 2: and often. The Nuggets offense needs to operate at peak 443 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 2: efficiency for like five or six the seven games. The 444 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 2: pressure of the moment and the experience advantage needs to 445 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 2: lead to Denver being more comfortable than their Okace counterparts. 446 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 2: Like if Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray just straight up 447 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 2: out play JDub and Chad, that's a big swing in 448 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 2: Denver's favor. Denver would have to take care of the 449 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 2: ball and keep okay see out of transition. They've generally 450 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 2: done a good job in that matchup this season. There 451 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 2: is a pathway, but everything needs to go right. It's 452 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 2: gonna be a really fun series. I'm excited. We're gonna 453 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 2: obviously be breaking down all the games after each night 454 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 2: live on YouTube. That's all I have for this morning. 455 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 3: Again. 456 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 2: We'll be back tonight with Colin after Rockets Warriors. After 457 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 2: I finished recording with Colin, we're gonna be going live 458 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 2: on YouTube. That'll probably be up first the Colin Show's 459 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 2: not live, and then it gets produced, so it'll probably 460 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,639 Speaker 2: end up going up later in the evening. But the 461 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 2: Warriors game tips off at five point thirty Pacific, so 462 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 2: it'll be done around eight Pacific. I'll be done with 463 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 2: Colin no later than nine pacifics, so I would imagine 464 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 2: right around nine pm Pacific time is when we're gonna 465 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 2: be going live on YouTube. We'll do a reaction to 466 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 2: today's games, and then we will also head over to 467 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 2: Playback after that to do some film and to talk 468 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 2: through talk through you guys's questions and comments. And stuff 469 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 2: along those lines. So lots of basketball today, lots of 470 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 2: content today, looking forward to it. 471 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 3: I'll see you guys then. What's up guys. 472 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 2: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting 473 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 2: OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us 474 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 2: if you guys would take a second and leave a 475 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 2: rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys 476 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 2: supporting us, but if you could take a minute to 477 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 2: do that, I'd really appreciate it. 478 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: The volume