Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: And welcome to Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Amy Morris in
Speaker 2: for Joe Matthew alongside Bloomberg Congressional reporter Billy House on
Speaker 2: this Friday afternoon. This hour on sound On, we're going
Speaker 2: to be talking with longtime Iowa political journalist Dave Price.
Speaker 2: He's going to bring us up to speed on the
Speaker 2: presidential candidates in Iowa this past week and what we've
Speaker 2: learned ahead of next week's debate, and Billy House is
Speaker 2: with me. Billy, it's going to be interesting to see
Speaker 2: who besides Donald Trump may have picked up a little
Speaker 2: traction in Iowa.
Speaker 3: That's right, and hey, maybe we'll learn even who's trying
Speaker 3: to gain more traction by raising his legal problems, including
Speaker 3: this week's big indictment in Fulton County, Georgia.
Speaker 2: Right, we're going to continue to watch that that's bound
Speaker 2: to come up on the debate stage next week. We're
Speaker 2: also going to be talking all of this over with
Speaker 2: our political panel. Let's go now to Iowa, where I
Speaker 2: will find Bloomberg National politics reporter Stephanie Lie a big
Speaker 2: week on the campaign trail. Stephanie, it's only going to
Speaker 2: get more interesting heading into next week's Republican debate. Tell
Speaker 2: us what you are going to be watching for.
Speaker 4: First, certainly, thank you so much for having me, and
Speaker 4: to start, you know, we are still tracking whether or
Speaker 4: not Donald Trump will attend the debate. According to sources
Speaker 4: that we've been talking to, he's been leaning against it,
Speaker 4: but might instead do an interview with Tucker Carlson, which
Speaker 4: in fact would be a snub to the RNC and
Speaker 4: to Fox News, who is hosting the debate. But we
Speaker 4: are interested in what the other candidates are up to
Speaker 4: as well, so Destantus super Pac has released a memo
Speaker 4: earlier this month that was first reported by The New
Speaker 4: York Times regarding his debate strategy, and what we saw
Speaker 4: from that is that there's a growing interest.
Speaker 3: Stephanie, this is Billy.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry.
Speaker 3: We just got breaking news that Donald Trump does plan
Speaker 3: to skip that first debate, So I just wanted to
Speaker 3: let you know about that. He's going to sit in
Speaker 3: and be with Tucker Carlson, the former.
Speaker 4: Fox News host, Right right, definitely, And that's that's something
Speaker 4: that we've been tracking for a while and it's something
Speaker 4: that we will be watching closely. Yeah, I guess there's
Speaker 4: nothing much more to add on up on my end
Speaker 4: for that.
Speaker 2: The govinor of Florida also Stephanie seeking to reshape his campaign.
Speaker 2: Has he been getting any traction there?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's definitely been some interest on his
Speaker 4: team's end to kind of refocus his messaging on more
Speaker 4: kitchen table issues rather than trying to take on the
Speaker 4: front runner head on. And in fact, in some of
Speaker 4: these documents that were released by a super Packed, they
Speaker 4: seem to think that the strategy should be to avoid
Speaker 4: taking digs at Donald Trump and instead focused on the
Speaker 4: other candidates, such as the zak Ramaswami who's rising in
Speaker 4: the polls.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Stephanie, who is taking former President Trump head on.
Speaker 3: And Trump is tracting a lot of crowds there. But
Speaker 3: what is he What do people there say he's actually
Speaker 3: done since twenty twenty to become president again?
Speaker 4: Sure? Well, to start, you know, we've seen Chris Christy
Speaker 4: take a pretty strong stance against Trump earlier We noticed
Speaker 4: that he had mentioned that the Santus should you know,
Speaker 4: take active jobs at the front runner. And in terms
Speaker 4: of what voters are staying on the ground about what
Speaker 4: they think of Trump, many of them have told me
Speaker 4: that they valued his economic policy, his focus on national security,
Speaker 4: and I think that's a messaging that's really resonated with
Speaker 4: them and something that their campaign has really focused on. Right.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Stephanie for joining us. That's Bloomberg
Speaker 2: National politics reporter Stephanie Laie in Iowa bringing us up
Speaker 2: to speed on what she saw on the ground during
Speaker 2: this past week when all the candidates were and they're
Speaker 2: at the Iowa State Fair and making their way through
Speaker 2: the state, Let's turn out a long time Iowa political
Speaker 2: journalist Dave Price. Now Dave writes the Dave Price Perspective
Speaker 2: column on Substack. He's also been following everything that's been
Speaker 2: going on with all of the press residential hopefuls in Iowa. Dave,
Speaker 2: great to have you. Did anybody get any buzz in
Speaker 2: Iowa besides Donald Trump?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 6: Perhaps in their own ways. I think the one on
Speaker 6: one conversations that the candidates, not Donald Trump because he
Speaker 6: chose not to do it, but the one on one
Speaker 6: time that these candidates had twelve of them with Governor
Speaker 6: Kim Reynolds surely could be beneficial for them. Vivik Ramaswami
Speaker 6: brought out a crowd, to Scott brought out a crowd,
Speaker 6: DeSantis brought out a crowd. Nikki Haley had some people there.
Speaker 6: So those moments could do them some good. But clearly
Speaker 6: the whole experience with Trump coming and the people who
Speaker 6: gathered around to see them probably attracted a good share
Speaker 6: of the attention.
Speaker 3: Hey are disability? Is are people satisfied with for instance,
Speaker 3: Tim Scott saying he wants to stay positive, he doesn't
Speaker 3: want to talk about other candidates, He wants to stay
Speaker 3: above the whatever phray there might be in terms of
Speaker 3: Trump and just speak to the issues. Is that satisfying
Speaker 3: people out there?
Speaker 6: Good question? How about a yes and no. I think
Speaker 6: you can find two different camps on this because I
Speaker 6: think you have some people who like that positivity from
Speaker 6: Tim Scott and think that that could be a contrast
Speaker 6: to DeSantis or Trump as a way for him to
Speaker 6: stand out. At the same time, they question, then why
Speaker 6: Scott is out there making almost some of the same
Speaker 6: arguments that Trump is about that there are two tiered
Speaker 6: system of justice and such, thinking that this could be
Speaker 6: an opportunity for Scott to really pivot away from Trump,
Speaker 6: and he has chosen not to do that. So I
Speaker 6: think you get two different camps there, and because of that,
Speaker 6: people have far different opinions about whether this is really
Speaker 6: a success full path that Scott is trying to lay out.
Speaker 2: It seems like that would make it harder to determine
Speaker 2: if there really is anyone who may be turning into
Speaker 2: a challenge for Donald Trump, for.
Speaker 6: Sure, and I think that's what has some people kind
Speaker 6: of scratching their heads about. You know, they get Chris
Speaker 6: Christie's play right, although he's not really competing in Iowa,
Speaker 6: and even Will Hurt, who's at the fair today, you
Speaker 6: can see that where they've decided, look, I'm going to
Speaker 6: lay out my ideas. I'm going to go hard against Trump.
Speaker 6: Here's where we go. But for many of the other ones,
Speaker 6: they're choosing not to really do that. Now, maybe Mike
Speaker 6: Pence has dialed it up just a little bit as
Speaker 6: he started talking about January sixth, but Nikki Haley, Tim Scott,
Speaker 6: now Vivid Ramaswami has really been for the most part
Speaker 6: positive about Trump from the get go, So perhaps it's
Speaker 6: not as surprising with Tim, but Scott and haleyicular and
Speaker 6: then now we'll see what Pence does. That could be
Speaker 6: a way to really start separating themselves. So I'm curious
Speaker 6: where they're where they are going to go from here
Speaker 6: to try to maybe point some differences out to get
Speaker 6: that separation. There should be if you're looking historically, if
Speaker 6: it's going to be Trump, and we'll see if DeSantis
Speaker 6: is going to be remain kind of the big player here,
Speaker 6: but there should be another place here. This race should
Speaker 6: be big enough for three primary contenders, if you will,
Speaker 6: maybe four, But you know who would that three and
Speaker 6: four be?
Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly what I was going to say. You
Speaker 2: can't say something like, oh, maybe three or four big
Speaker 2: players for the primary? Okay, who would you think?
Speaker 6: Well, and you know, we have a lot of time here,
Speaker 6: and it would seem that if we go by history,
Speaker 6: we'll probably see rise and fall here perhaps of a couple.
Speaker 6: Ramaswami clearly has some attention and he gets people going
Speaker 6: here and apparently he can wrap because he did that
Speaker 6: on stage, right, But you know, will he have enough
Speaker 6: separation you know, where's the point of distinction between Ramaswami
Speaker 6: and Trump. Clearly they're not clones by any means. But
Speaker 6: if these candidates are not really going to use these
Speaker 6: moments and all of these indictments to lay out their
Speaker 6: case why they should replace Trump as the nominee, then
Speaker 6: how do they really build this?
Speaker 3: Hey, Dave Billy here, I'm kind of curious, just on
Speaker 3: the sidelines, what are state Democrats and other Democrats doing
Speaker 3: in terms of mischief or whatever?
Speaker 1: Else?
Speaker 3: Is the Republicans kind of tour the map there?
Speaker 6: I don't know about mischief necessarily, but I think, you know, honestly,
Speaker 6: they're this is going to sound harsh, but they're trying
Speaker 6: to figure out how do they become relevant in all
Speaker 6: of this. Joe Biden is not a not a popular
Speaker 6: guy in this state. He frankly has never fared well
Speaker 6: in this state other than when he was Barack Obama's
Speaker 6: vice president. So he's not a popular guy. What is
Speaker 6: really going to change that At a time that Democrats
Speaker 6: have really plummeted in this state. I think Democrats are
Speaker 6: trying to figure out where to pick their spots. You
Speaker 6: have a couple of the legislative leaders who are doing
Speaker 6: these kind of extended listening tours, if you will. Across
Speaker 6: the state House. Minority Leader Jennifer Confirst has really focused
Speaker 6: on that quite a bit as they try to rebuild
Speaker 6: in little pockets. But I think they know that this
Speaker 6: is an uphill climb for a million reasons. But especially
Speaker 6: when you have so many Republican presidential candidates actively campaigning,
Speaker 6: how do state Democrats push back against that other than
Speaker 6: just essentially putting out carbon copy statements about such and
Speaker 6: such as a Trump clone or is too far right, etc. Etc.
Speaker 6: It's pretty hard for them to go out after each
Speaker 6: one individually.
Speaker 2: And we are talking with Iowa political journalist Dave Price
Speaker 2: about all the campaigning that's been going on in Iowa,
Speaker 2: particularly among Republican presidential hopefuls in the past week or so. Dave,
Speaker 2: there's been this rift between Governor Kim Reynolds and Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Does that make a difference in Iowa? Is Trump's support
Speaker 2: so intense that it doesn't really matter what would turn
Speaker 2: voters off on Trump in Iowa?
Speaker 6: I am totally curious about this, and you know, I
Speaker 6: wish I knew what the answer is, And we're so
Speaker 6: many months out that It's hard to really know yet,
Speaker 6: but Kim Reynolds I think is the most popular Republican
Speaker 6: in the state of Iowa. And that's saying something. Chuck Grassley,
Speaker 6: the US Senator, has been in office in one way
Speaker 6: or the other since the nineteen fifties. But when you
Speaker 6: go to events, Kim Reynolds gets the loudest ovation, the
Speaker 6: most sustained applause. And she used that at the fair,
Speaker 6: these one on one chats that she did with the candidate.
Speaker 6: So to have Donald Trump really unnecessarily poke at this
Speaker 6: relationship seems intriguing, maybe kind of bizarre, unforced and so.
Speaker 6: And also in this really didn't get a lot of
Speaker 6: headlines yet. But Governor Reynolds has talked about that she
Speaker 6: would remain neutral. However, in the past week she left
Speaker 6: open the chance that late in this process she could
Speaker 6: endorse somebody. Doesn't mean she will, and she by no
Speaker 6: means said, hey, it's going to be somebody besides Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: So I don't want to oversell it here, but just
Speaker 6: the fact that she said that was interesting to me
Speaker 6: that it maybe meant that in the back of her
Speaker 6: mind she's thinking about some stuff.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Hey, I.
Speaker 3: Was out there one time when pat you can and
Speaker 3: refused to kiss babies, but he did kiss piglets. So
Speaker 3: I'm being facetious there. But which candidates actually seems to
Speaker 3: have a more human connectedness with the people one on
Speaker 3: one that you've seen? Actually, who's got that ability that
Speaker 3: may have surprised you or come out of nowhere?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, you know, the knock on DeSantis is
Speaker 6: that is not who he is. And we'll see if
Speaker 6: this works. But there's no question that DeSantis two point
Speaker 6: oh or three point h or whatever you want to
Speaker 6: argue here is they've tried to refocus some things. He
Speaker 6: did go out and do some of the traditional fair things.
Speaker 6: He was even out on the bumper cards with his
Speaker 6: kids and walking around with his very much a lot
Speaker 6: more focus on his wife and kids now on this
Speaker 6: as they tried to move out. It doesn't really seem
Speaker 6: that the conversations with people. Sorry, my allergies are kicking
Speaker 6: in from the fair and all the corn here.
Speaker 2: I can understand that, but.
Speaker 6: You know, maybe that's just not what comes easiest to him.
Speaker 6: Ramaswami seems very easy, an easy conversationalist. Nikki Haley does,
Speaker 6: Tim Scott does. I walked around a while with Tim
Speaker 6: Scott and Senator Joni Ernst, and he seems very much
Speaker 6: at ease talking to people. And you know, this like
Speaker 6: it's an art and the people who have had success
Speaker 6: in this state can relate to people very quickly. Trump
Speaker 6: does it in his own way. And his fair visit
Speaker 6: wasn't like the other ones. He wasn't really working at.
Speaker 6: He did his event, He had his entourage, They had
Speaker 6: a couple of speakers assembled around him and kind of
Speaker 6: personal anecdotes and why they think that he's would be
Speaker 6: good to reelect and such, and what he's done for
Speaker 6: the country and that kind of stuff. But it wasn't
Speaker 6: like the retail politicking that we're used to seeing at
Speaker 6: the fair, and it is it's it's a gift that
Speaker 6: people have. Terry brand instead, longtime governor here. That was
Speaker 6: something he can do. Kim Reynolds could do it, Chuck
Speaker 6: Grassley could do it. Tom Harkin can do it, the
Speaker 6: longtime Democrat. So it's just a thing you can't fake.
Speaker 6: You're either good at walking up to people and it
Speaker 6: looks like you like people, you know, like Bill Clinton
Speaker 6: was so good at that, seeing him walking around here.
Speaker 6: Some people are just really good and some people aren't.
Speaker 6: Perhaps Hillary Clinton wasn't as good as Barack Obama and
Speaker 6: maybe that made a difference in people's perceptions of them. No,
Speaker 6: those moments, I think you really learn a lot from them.
Speaker 2: We only have about twenty seconds here, and I need
Speaker 2: to ask you this because you mentioned being at the
Speaker 2: fair all this past week. Your favorite food go.
Speaker 6: Oh Man, favorites are tough, but they have this awesome
Speaker 6: bacon brisket, mac and cheese.
Speaker 2: Oh stop, that's.
Speaker 6: Just an amazing combination.
Speaker 2: Of we're calling it, Dave, just cut it out. Dave Price,
Speaker 2: longtime Iowa political journalist, author of the Dave Price Perspective
Speaker 2: column on Substack, Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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Speaker 2: And you're listening to sound don i Abe Morris in
Speaker 2: for Joe Matthew alongside Bloomberg Congressional reporter Billy House. Want
Speaker 2: to turn now to our political panel with Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 2: contributor Jeanie she and Zano and Lester Munson, principle at
Speaker 2: bg R Government Affairs. Thanks both of you for joining
Speaker 2: us today. There's a two day form going on in
Speaker 2: Atlanta today and tomorrow, the last big showcase event before
Speaker 2: next week's Republican presidential debate. And Lester, let's start with you.
Speaker 2: What are you going to be looking for coming out
Speaker 2: of this forum, considering if I may sidebar and Trump
Speaker 2: or former President Trump wasn't even invited to this.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and we still don't know if he's going to
Speaker 7: be in the debate next week either. And I think
Speaker 7: it's important for folks to remember this is still wide open.
Speaker 7: People aren't actually going to be voting in any kind
Speaker 7: of nomination process yet on the Republican side for five months,
Speaker 7: so there's a long way to go here. Yes, the
Speaker 7: former president is in the lead, and there's a little
Speaker 7: bit of movement with respect to Ron DeSantis and Vivek
Speaker 7: Ramaswami and some of these other candidates, but it's still
Speaker 7: a wide open opportunity for one of these candidates to
Speaker 7: distinguish themselves become the front runner or near front runner
Speaker 7: and maybe make a real challenge against former President Trump.
Speaker 7: So I think it's I think the most important thing
Speaker 7: going into these events in the next few days is
Speaker 7: to look for people who are going to take advantage
Speaker 7: of the opportunity. This is entrepreneurial, forward leaning. Somebody's willing
Speaker 7: to take some risks, probably going to pay off for him.
Speaker 3: Lester, this is Billy. We just we got late breaking
Speaker 3: news a little while ago that he will not that
Speaker 3: Trump will not participate in the Trump He'll do an
Speaker 3: interview with instead at the time. But let me ask
Speaker 3: you this. You say, who will seize this opportunity? What
Speaker 3: does that mean? Does that mean attacking Trump? Or does
Speaker 3: that mean, as Tim Scott has been doing, sticking to
Speaker 3: the positive or is there some kind of middle ground
Speaker 3: that might be successful for someone.
Speaker 7: Well, I think I think there's a huge opportunity for
Speaker 7: someone who will attack the former president in this sense,
Speaker 7: call him out on the deceptions about the twenty twenty election. Call,
Speaker 7: you know, be a truth teller about the election. The
Speaker 7: reason Donald Trump is not a good candidate for twenty
Speaker 7: four the argument should be, is that he lost in
Speaker 7: twenty twenty this is he's a proven losing candidate, and
Speaker 7: the there's a huge opportunity for a Republican to point
Speaker 7: that out. It's clear to Scott won't do it, at
Speaker 7: least thus far. Ron DeSantis has campaigned his pack put
Speaker 7: memos on the internet inexplicably to that effect. So there's
Speaker 7: an opportunity for one of these other candidates to say
Speaker 7: it's time we face reality and we need to nominate
Speaker 7: someone who can win. I think that kind of risk
Speaker 7: taking will be rewarded. The big opportunity there, Genie.
Speaker 2: Let me shift to you for a second. Miami's mayor
Speaker 2: Francis Suarez has says he's qualified for his first GOP debate,
Speaker 2: But now we're getting word from the RNZ that they
Speaker 2: can't confirm that. And Billy and I were talking about
Speaker 2: this off air, and it seems like not a terribly
Speaker 2: hard thing to confirm. But maybe there are some other
Speaker 2: things in motion here that we wouldn't be privy to.
Speaker 2: Why wouldn't the RNC be able to confirm something like that.
Speaker 8: You know, it may be a matter of time. We
Speaker 8: do know he has met the donor threshold. I believe
Speaker 8: the sticking point is on the polling and so you know,
Speaker 8: the requirements are pretty stringent, and they have stuck to that.
Speaker 8: He is missing or was missing at last check before
Speaker 8: he said he made it two poles. He had to
Speaker 8: reach one percent in one national poll and one Iowa
Speaker 8: pole or an additional national poll and one pole that's
Speaker 8: not Iowa. So it's a little bit confusing, and they
Speaker 8: may just still be going through that. But by you know,
Speaker 8: by what we're seeing, Suarez would be sort of the
Speaker 8: last person who we don't know of yet who might
Speaker 8: make it or might not. Everybody else we know of
Speaker 8: who's met the polling and donor and sign the pledge DeSantis, Ramaswami, Haley,
Speaker 8: Scott Bergham. Of course, Trump, Pence, and Christy all meet
Speaker 8: the donor poles. They hadn't signed the pledge as of
Speaker 8: this morning, although Christy said it's just a matter of time,
Speaker 8: and I'm assuming that's true for Pence, and obviously now
Speaker 8: that Trump is out, he won't be signing that pledge.
Speaker 8: Everybody else heard Hutchinson, they are all out for not
Speaker 8: making either the polling or the donor threshold or signing
Speaker 8: the pledge.
Speaker 3: Gennie, how strange and how weird is it that there
Speaker 3: will be also some eighteen people along with Trump, turning
Speaker 3: themselves into the Fulton County Sheriff's office during the week
Speaker 3: and including probably Wednesday as these other Republicans try to
Speaker 3: hold a debate.
Speaker 8: Oh, you know, strange? Is you know I think about
Speaker 8: it when I teach young people, and I think, do
Speaker 8: they think this is the way that our politics always are?
Speaker 8: Is this how they think that as they get older,
Speaker 8: that this is how life is going to be politically?
Speaker 8: Because this is so bizarre, and you know, just thinking
Speaker 8: about this Eric Erickson gathering that's taking place today that
Speaker 8: you were just talking with Lester about that Trump's not attending.
Speaker 8: It is literally ten miles from the jail where he
Speaker 8: is going to be surrendering by next riding, and we
Speaker 8: assume he will do it earlier. And so between that
Speaker 8: and the split screen of him with an interview with
Speaker 8: Tucker Carlson Fox News, the RNC Ronal McDaniel has got
Speaker 8: to be pulling her hair out at this point that
Speaker 8: this is where they are and they yes. You couple
Speaker 8: that with eighteen other people who will be turning themselves
Speaker 8: in by next Friday at noon, it's stunning.
Speaker 2: Now, we are hearing from our political panel with Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Politics contributor Genie Cienzano and Lester Munson, principal at BGR
Speaker 2: Government Affairs. Lester, this next question is for you because
Speaker 2: you said something that really stuck with me. You were
Speaker 2: talking about a candidate being brave, and who's going to
Speaker 2: be brave and who's going to stand up and who's
Speaker 2: going to take that pledge or take that stand against
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. There's a crowded stage that's going to be
Speaker 2: there on Wednesday. Donald Trump's going to skip it. So
Speaker 2: would that speak to the hold that Donald Trump still
Speaker 2: has on the Republican Party or does it illustrate how
Speaker 2: the party is trying to wriggle out of that hold
Speaker 2: because so many people will be there.
Speaker 7: Well, I think the hold that Donald Trump has on
Speaker 7: the party is relayed as directly related to his ability
Speaker 7: to win elections. The reason the Republican Party went more
Speaker 7: populist in twenty sixteen is because it had failed to
Speaker 7: win the two previous national elections in in two thousand
Speaker 7: and eight and twenty twelve.
Speaker 2: But he's won one. He's won one election.
Speaker 7: That's right, and but the whole purpose of his effort
Speaker 7: to discredit the twenty twenty election is to make sure
Speaker 7: no one calls him a loser. But he lost. He
Speaker 7: lost the election.
Speaker 5: It is the.
Speaker 7: Biggest strike against him for Republicans who are looking to
Speaker 7: win the White House. They don't want to nominate someone
Speaker 7: who's going to lose right now. Unless something changes, Donald
Speaker 7: Trump will lose again if he's the nominee. He already
Speaker 7: lost to Joe Biden once. Joe Biden was not a
Speaker 7: terrific candidate frankly, at least not in my view. So
Speaker 7: the best case an alternative to Donald Trump should be
Speaker 7: making is I can win. I will win in twenty
Speaker 7: twenty four. That's why you should take my candidacy seriously.
Speaker 7: I will govern in a way that you find acceptable.
Speaker 7: That and I will help you with eager bulls and
Speaker 7: I will. But the biggest difference between me and Donald
Speaker 7: Trump is I will win. So you have to go
Speaker 7: straight at the election lies about twenty twenty. That's why
Speaker 7: that issue is so important. Someone's got to show some
Speaker 7: courage and be willing to take.
Speaker 9: It of Genie.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump could say I can win, I can win,
Speaker 3: but he's he's as his primary calendar plays out next year,
Speaker 3: he's going to have to say I can win squeezed
Speaker 3: in between probably some trials. So that's kind of an
Speaker 3: awkward situation. And how do voters Super Tuesday voters, for instance,
Speaker 3: perhaps react to the fact that his trial, one of
Speaker 3: his trials in Georgia opened up the day before.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's astonishing. It's hard to imagine any person could
Speaker 8: go between a political campaign, this tough running for president
Speaker 8: and this many trial dates. It's got to stick in
Speaker 8: the minds of voters. But the reality when we look
Speaker 8: at the Republican primary polls that are out so far
Speaker 8: and it is still early, is that they think that
Speaker 8: Donald Trump can win. That's why his opponents are not
Speaker 8: going in that direction. The direction that most people are
Speaker 8: saying they should go in is not that we can
Speaker 8: win and he can't, but he is going to be
Speaker 8: too consumed with everything he's got on his plate to
Speaker 8: move this forward. We like him, we understand why you
Speaker 8: like him, but we can pick up the flack where
Speaker 8: he is unable to because of the time constraints. I
Speaker 8: don't see how they get around that until and unless
Speaker 8: those polls change with Republican primary voters, because that thirty
Speaker 8: forty percent Juggernaut is a pretty sizable majority with that
Speaker 8: many people in the race at this point, much.
Speaker 2: More still to come. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jenny she and
Speaker 2: Zeno Lester Munthson, principal at bg R Government Affairs. I'm
Speaker 2: Amy Morris. He's Billy House wanted to bring in now
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Kaylee Lines. She's going to be taking over the
Speaker 2: show from here. Kayley, you're bringing us a power pack
Speaker 2: to our to end this Friday, starting with your very
Speaker 2: first guest, Republican Brian's Style of Wisconsin.
Speaker 10: Yeah, of Wisconsin, and Wisconsin's a very interesting state right
Speaker 10: now for many reasons. A President Biden was there earlier
Speaker 10: this week in Milwaukee talking about his legislation, the Inflation
Speaker 10: Reduction Act, which of course celebrated its first birthday this week.
Speaker 10: I would imagine the Congressman, based on his activity on
Speaker 10: x the platform formerly known as Twitter, doesn't necessarily agree
Speaker 10: with everything the President was trying to tout there. But then,
Speaker 10: more importantly, perhaps next week that's also where the debate
Speaker 10: in Milwaukee.
Speaker 2: Will be happening.
Speaker 10: We now know apparently former President Trump will not be
Speaker 10: in attendance. I wonder what the congressman's thoughts on that are,
Speaker 10: And then, of course, once we get past the debate,
Speaker 10: we're really going to be talking about the showdown on
Speaker 10: Capitol Hill we're probably set for in September and trying
Speaker 10: to avoid a government shutdown. Will get his thoughts on
Speaker 10: how that should be done.
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, I almost forgot there might be a
Speaker 2: government shutdown.
Speaker 10: Yeah, they're probably more likely than not unless they can
Speaker 10: agree to a continuing resolution, which not every Republican in
Speaker 10: Congress may want to agree.
Speaker 2: To everything that's been going on politically. I almost let
Speaker 2: something like that slip out of my radar, so that
Speaker 2: the deadline for that's the end of September correct.
Speaker 10: September thirtieth. Yes, theoretically, unless they can get together on
Speaker 10: a continuing resolution, which will extend things to some point.
Speaker 10: What that point is, I don't think any of us
Speaker 10: really know. But if they can't do that, there is
Speaker 10: a risk that come October first you do have the
Speaker 10: government shut down.
Speaker 2: But didn't Senator Schumer say that they were working on
Speaker 2: that stop gap measure together like they seem to be
Speaker 2: on at least the same page.
Speaker 10: He and McCarthy. Sure, is McCarthy on the same page
Speaker 10: as the rest of his caucus. This is the question
Speaker 10: we continually come back to. We've seen this song and
Speaker 10: dance on a few different fights before, and the showdown
Speaker 10: over the shutdown probably won't be that much different.
Speaker 2: And really quickly, You're also going to talk about the
Speaker 2: climate agenda, Biden's climate agenda.
Speaker 10: We sure will. And Biden's summon happening today at Camp
Speaker 10: David with the leaders of Japan and South Korea.
Speaker 2: That's huge, that's historic. I cannot wait to hear this.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Bloomberg's Kaylee lines She's going to
Speaker 2: take it the rest of the way from here. I'm
Speaker 2: Amy Morris. Billy House is also going to stick around
Speaker 2: the second hour of Sound Done. It starts right now.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
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Speaker 10: It's great to be here with Billy House today. Billy
Speaker 10: in the House. What's your Twitter?
Speaker 3: A book?
Speaker 10: That's what it is?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 10: I have House and Session, House and Session even better. Yeah,
Speaker 10: I really should have looked this up before I came
Speaker 10: into the studio, But Billy, it's so great to have
Speaker 10: you here, because, as we were just talking about with Amy,
Speaker 10: we've been kind of in the August doldrums, although arguably
Speaker 10: August has been way busier than I think anyone would
Speaker 10: have anticipated with Congress and recess. But we need to
Speaker 10: be looking toward the future because just in a couple
Speaker 10: of weeks they're going to be coming back and it's
Speaker 10: going to be a sprint to that September thirtieth deadline
Speaker 10: to try to get these twelve appropriation bills through. What
Speaker 10: are you hearing at this point about the likelihood of
Speaker 10: that actually going to be mission accomplished.
Speaker 3: It's one of the great recent historical aspects of Congress
Speaker 3: is that they take a law August break right before
Speaker 3: spending bills are needed to be done to avoid a
Speaker 3: government shutdown. So what we're hearing is that they aren't
Speaker 3: going to do that. The Senate and the House will
Speaker 3: not be able to do all twelve annual spending bills
Speaker 3: before the October one start of the new fiscal year.
Speaker 3: So both leaders, the Republican Leader of the House Speaker
Speaker 3: McCarthy and the Senate Democratic Leader and majority leader in
Speaker 3: the Senate, Schumer have this week said that a stopgap
Speaker 3: bill will be needed. But that's anything but easy, and
Speaker 3: there's going to be a rocky road ahead, and there
Speaker 3: are those who object, and so it's going to be
Speaker 3: again another race to the deadline.
Speaker 10: There, and it's going to be a busy September for
Speaker 10: all of us. I'm sure. It is one thing to say, oh,
Speaker 10: we'll just do a continuing resolution. It's another to actually
Speaker 10: get a CR done.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, there are people who have all kinds of demands
Speaker 3: before they'll go along with that.
Speaker 10: All right, Well, let's see if our next guest has
Speaker 10: any demands to go along with this. Congressman Brian Style
Speaker 10: is joining us as a Republican from Wisconsin, also chair
Speaker 10: of the House Administration Committee. Congressman, it's been a while.
Speaker 10: Thank you so much for coming back to sound on
Speaker 10: here on Bloomberg. What are your thoughts on a continuing resolution?
Speaker 10: Can enough of your colleagues get behind it?
Speaker 9: Well, thanks for having me on. I think what's so
Speaker 9: important is we do not allow our federal government to
Speaker 9: shut down. Ultimately, the way Congress operates pleads a lot
Speaker 9: to be desired. No private sector business would operate like this.
Speaker 9: That said, this is a situation we're in. We're not
Speaker 9: probably going to get all of the appropriations bills done
Speaker 9: in time. What we should do is extend the clock,
Speaker 9: allow us to finish the work, rather than allowing us
Speaker 9: to shut this down. I think at the end of
Speaker 9: the day, we're going to find a way to keep
Speaker 9: the government open and operational. I think that's prudent. But
Speaker 9: then we do have to get to the work of
Speaker 9: actually moving these appropriations bills forward.
Speaker 3: Congressman's the push for a cr also comes with a
Speaker 3: question about how long it should last, and the Speaker
Speaker 3: McCarthy has said he does not want one that would
Speaker 3: extend to the end of the year another and be
Speaker 3: jammed by Congress what other What length do you think
Speaker 3: they're looking at? And can the work get done by
Speaker 3: whatever link that is?
Speaker 9: Well, hopefully we can only do we can we can
Speaker 9: limit this to short term extensions and really put the
Speaker 9: pressure on the Appropriations Committee to finish the work, bring
Speaker 9: the bills to the floor and get those pass. We've
Speaker 9: noticed that the Senate hasn't gotten almost anything done this year,
Speaker 9: which is a continuous problem, and the lack of action
Speaker 9: on the Senate side, But I'm optimistic that we'll actually
Speaker 9: be able to get this done. The time is going
Speaker 9: to tell Congressman.
Speaker 10: You've joined this program many times before in which we've
Speaker 10: talked about some of the discord within the Republican Party,
Speaker 10: specifically within the House. You've described it as, you know,
Speaker 10: a Thanksgiving family dinner that has hundreds of people really
Speaker 10: hard to you know, navigate through that situation sometimes or
Speaker 10: a long road trip. How much of that do you
Speaker 10: think is going to go on around this fight. How
Speaker 10: many members do you think could make some serious noise.
Speaker 9: About this Well, I think you're going to see a
Speaker 9: lot of jockeying for position here because the spending that's
Speaker 9: been coming out of Washington for years now has been
Speaker 9: wildly unchecked, and then further coming out of the pandemic,
Speaker 9: what we saw as a dramatic increase in the amount
Speaker 9: of spending particular and discretionary programs out a dramatic increase.
Speaker 9: How do we bring that back into check. There's a
Speaker 9: lot of people that have a lot of frustration about
Speaker 9: how Congress operated previously. But again, at the end of
Speaker 9: the day, when push comes to shove and the VOTs
Speaker 9: come to the floor. I do think we'll have the
Speaker 9: opportunity to prevent a government shut down and ultimately get
Speaker 9: these appropriations bills complete.
Speaker 3: How does a separate supplemental bill that includes perhaps money
Speaker 3: for MAUI and other spending, disaster aid money and Ukraine money,
Speaker 3: more money for the war in Ukraine? How does that
Speaker 3: get through? Does that just complicate everything or is that
Speaker 3: part of this overall complicated quilt of things Congress needs.
Speaker 5: To do well?
Speaker 9: The President effectively brought a thirteenth appropriations bill idea up.
Speaker 9: This is going to be all part of the broader
Speaker 9: negotiation of whether or not we're able to limit the
Speaker 9: growth of federal government spending, in particular on our discretionary programs.
Speaker 9: So this is part of the broader conversation that we're
Speaker 9: going to have as we all return on the other
Speaker 9: side of Labor Day. A ton of work in front
Speaker 9: of us, but hopefully we can keep cool, our heads
Speaker 9: prevailed and actually get these appropriations bills done.
Speaker 10: Congressman, can I just ask you, it seems that no
Speaker 10: one really is interested in sticking to what was agreed
Speaker 10: in the debt ceiling debate. So I just wonder what
Speaker 10: the whole point of the song and dance was from
Speaker 10: earlier this year. If we're just going to have the
Speaker 10: fight all over again in the next month.
Speaker 9: Or so, well, I don't know that I fully agree
Speaker 9: with you there. I do think there's a lot of
Speaker 9: us that would like to see discussion spending cap within
Speaker 9: the caps agreed to in the debt ceiling negotiation. I
Speaker 9: think those are good caps for us to be targeting towards,
Speaker 9: and I think it's actually quite doable to do that.
Speaker 9: That said, there's going to be a negotiation with the Senate.
Speaker 9: The Senate would love to spend money. Administration would love
Speaker 9: to spend money. So we're going to have to hold
Speaker 9: our ground, and it's going to be a grueling negotiation
Speaker 9: because it's a battle between limiting the growth or federal
Speaker 9: government spending and a continuation of really aggressive new government
Speaker 9: spending that the Biden administration has been advocating for.
Speaker 3: Are you tired of the constant drama? Every week? Every Monday,
Speaker 3: there's a new drama facing you, guys, and by the
Speaker 3: end of the week, you well, really squeak by Is
Speaker 3: that going to just continue for the next year.
Speaker 9: Well, there's plenty that I don't like about Washington, DC
Speaker 9: and how it operates. But I would say that some
Speaker 9: of that is largely driven by a media narrative underestimating
Speaker 9: Republicans in the House only defined by the end of
Speaker 9: the week that we've accomplished it and got it done.
Speaker 9: And so I think what we're going to have to do,
Speaker 9: we're often underestimated, we over deliver. We're going to have
Speaker 9: to keep that attitude going forward to the remainder of
Speaker 9: this Congress.
Speaker 10: As we talk about the picture going forward and to
Speaker 10: return to what was agreed to you in the dead
Speaker 10: ceiling deal. I wonder if January first is the real deadline,
Speaker 10: because that's when that one percent across the board spending
Speaker 10: cut would kick in. Is that really the date we
Speaker 10: should be looking at.
Speaker 9: That's one of the days. But let's not lose sight
Speaker 9: of the fact that, and in particularly relates to a
Speaker 9: national defense, conducting a continuing resolution rather than passing an
Speaker 9: appropriations bill is a really terrible policy. We're far better
Speaker 9: off to pass a new appropriations bill, in particular with
Speaker 9: how dynamic the global environment from a security situation is.
Speaker 9: That said, I'd rather do a continuing resolution than shut
Speaker 9: the government down, but it is not the right answer.
Speaker 9: The right answer is to get the hard work done
Speaker 9: of identifying where we need to be spending in the
Speaker 9: United States, spending there and then spending in other areas well.
Speaker 3: On that. Is there a problem, is there going to
Speaker 3: be a problem passing a supplemental with Ukraine military finding, Well, hopefully.
Speaker 9: That's part of the broader negotiation. Really, it's the top
Speaker 9: line dollar that is both that is essential as well
Speaker 9: as what we're spending on. And so the President put
Speaker 9: forward the the supplemental as you noted, really creating that
Speaker 9: thirteenth Appropriations Bill, as I said, but this is all
Speaker 9: going to be part of a broader negotiation of how
Speaker 9: we're going to get these spending bills done this year.
Speaker 9: So on the.
Speaker 10: Subject of the President, and if you've referred to the
Speaker 10: Biden administration's policies a few times in this conversation, he
Speaker 10: was in Wisconsin just a few days ago. He was
Speaker 10: in Milwaukee talking about the Inflation Reduction Act, noting which
Speaker 10: the data does support that inflation pressures have started to
Speaker 10: ease in this economy. How much credit do you think
Speaker 10: the administration's policies should get for that.
Speaker 9: Well, they've eased, but they're still dramatically higher than the
Speaker 9: FED target of two percent. We have a long ways
Speaker 9: to go to bring inflation back down. And if we
Speaker 9: look at what's occurred over the course of the Biden administration,
Speaker 9: the average American family is spending over seven hundred dollars
Speaker 9: a month more than they were before President Biden took
Speaker 9: office for the same things. So American families are still
Speaker 9: getting squeezed their pocketbook. Pocketbooks recognize that Biden economics has
Speaker 9: been disastrous to American families. I think at the end
Speaker 9: of the day, the American voters are going to recognize
Speaker 9: that and vote them out of office in twenty twenty four, Well.
Speaker 3: It sounds like you didn't join in the one year
Speaker 3: anniversary celebrations of the Inflation Reduction Act, But you're right,
Speaker 3: some surveys do show and angst and anxiousness among the
Speaker 3: ordinary people over the economy, and that's already seems to
Speaker 3: be taking hold in some of the twenty twenty four
Speaker 3: congressional election campaigning.
Speaker 5: No.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, you can just pretty much talk to anybody. I mean,
Speaker 9: you can talk to any American family. Wages haven't kept
Speaker 9: up with inflation. Sure, inflation has slowed a touch, but
Speaker 9: it's still, American families are finding themselves further behind the
Speaker 9: eight ball than they were when President Biden took office.
Speaker 9: And so the question here is how do we turn
Speaker 9: that around. He pretty much needs you to do the
Speaker 9: opposite of what the Biden administration has done. He's conducted
Speaker 9: a warrant energy. Instead, he should be unleashing American energy.
Speaker 9: He paid people not to work after the pandemic was over.
Speaker 9: You got to work to get people back to work,
Speaker 9: but not only that, but to higher paying jobs. On
Speaker 9: shoring American work, what are the IRA do? It really
Speaker 9: sent a ton of money to foreign companies and created
Speaker 9: taxes on American manufacturers, Literally the opposite of what you'd
Speaker 9: want to do if you're trying to spur growth and
Speaker 9: help American workers.
Speaker 10: Well, if we're talking about Americans pocket books and things
Speaker 10: that have been spurring both growth, consumer spending is a
Speaker 10: big one of them. It's consistently held up. But people
Speaker 10: also haven't been having to pay monthly student loan debt
Speaker 10: repayments for a while. Now that's going to change in October.
Speaker 10: Should we be worried about the consequence for the US economy?
Speaker 10: And I asked this, given your role on the Financial
Speaker 10: Services Committee.
Speaker 9: No, we should be worried about the consequences of the
Speaker 9: fact that the Biden administration was trying to convince people
Speaker 9: that they didn't have to pay their debts for over
Speaker 9: a year, and the five billion dollars of that cost
Speaker 9: American public every single month. The fact that the Biden
Speaker 9: administration has planned to effectively subsidize everything but not actually
Speaker 9: address the root causes should be concerning. You'll just look
Speaker 9: at that student debt program. It did nothing to address
Speaker 9: the underlying issue, which is the high cost of education,
Speaker 9: had everything to do with subsidizing the higher education system,
Speaker 9: which is what's caused the problem in the first place.
Speaker 3: So anything happening in Wisconsin next week.
Speaker 9: I look forward to. I look forward to the conversation
Speaker 9: that we're going to have. I think it's all about
Speaker 9: whether or not we can present a future for the
Speaker 9: American public different and in contrast to the Biden administrations,
Speaker 9: and the contrast is ready for the taking. The hope
Speaker 9: here is that we don't delve into a personality contest,
Speaker 9: but rather we have a conversation about the policies needed
Speaker 9: to move the country forward.
Speaker 10: But Congressman, if you want to be president of the
Speaker 10: United States. Should you be showing up to the debate,
Speaker 10: regardless of whether or not you were president before or
Speaker 10: the front runner.
Speaker 9: I'll let the President Trump speak for himself. I'm not
Speaker 9: going to offer him advice on that in that regard,
Speaker 9: But ultimately, I think the more we're having a conversation
Speaker 9: about the disastrous policies from the Biden administration, and the
Speaker 9: more we're presenting an alternative option to the American people
Speaker 9: about economic growth, about limiting inflation, about securing the US
Speaker 9: Mexico border, we have a great opportunity to be successful
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: Fallate people showing up on the debate stage refuse to
Speaker 3: suggest anything about the former president. Won't there be a
Speaker 3: big missing element to that debate? Should somebody attack or
Speaker 3: at least address the legal problems that the former president has.
Speaker 9: I don't think people lack for information about President Trump.
Speaker 9: I think what people lack is a real clear path
Speaker 9: about where we need to take the country, and contrast
Speaker 9: that with where President Biden has taken the country. Over
Speaker 9: the course of the past two and a half years,
Speaker 9: the media focused attention on former President Trump and everything
Speaker 9: unrelated to actual policies that need to be implemented, to
Speaker 9: get the country back on track, I think as a
Speaker 9: disservice to the American people, and hopefully on the debate stage,
Speaker 9: we're actually talking about the future of our country.
Speaker 10: All right, final question for you, Congressman, why is Milwaukee
Speaker 10: such a good place for the first first debate? Is
Speaker 10: it the beer? Is it the cheese?
Speaker 9: It is all of the above. I'm in Wisconsin right now.
Speaker 9: I'm let me tell you there is no place you'd
Speaker 9: rather be than Wisconsin in August. This is the perfect weather,
Speaker 9: it is the perfect beer, it's the best cheese, and we're
Speaker 9: gonna have a great time in Milwaukee next week.
Speaker 10: Well, I've been choking on humidity here in Washington for
Speaker 10: the last month, so I'm sure you're really eager to
Speaker 10: get back to that. Congressman, thank you very much for
Speaker 10: giving us some of your time this afternoon. Congressman Brian Style,
Speaker 10: the Republican from Wisconsin and chair of the House Administration
Speaker 10: Committee as well, It's going to be an interesting one
Speaker 10: in Milwaukee next week, Billy, that is for sure. Regardless
Speaker 10: of whether or not the former president is there, he
Speaker 10: is going to haunt that stage.
Speaker 3: Absolutely. They lost Aaron Rodgers but they have the debate.
Speaker 10: Do you know anything about Packers football other than Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 3: I own stock. I bought a piece of stock.
Speaker 10: Well, there you go. Very cool. I'm a Broncos fan myself.
Speaker 3: I'm a Bills fan, but whatever, you know.
Speaker 10: We talk about getting to the end of the August recess,
Speaker 10: the start of the shutdown battle and all of that.
Speaker 10: What's more important about September is it brings back NFL football,
Speaker 10: like for real, not preseasons.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, once you get past these preseason games,
Speaker 3: don't mind.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 10: Happy Friday, everyone, and welcome back to Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 10: It is Kayle Lines in the seat today, but joining
Speaker 10: me is Billy House, one of our congressional reporters here
Speaker 10: at Bloomberg. Well, Joe Matthew takes a well deserved long weekend,
Speaker 10: and what a week. It has been, Billy. We've talked
Speaker 10: a lot about all of the different stuff going on
Speaker 10: in domestic politics, least of all another indictment for former
Speaker 10: President Trump, the questions around whether or not he's going
Speaker 10: to show up at the debate in Milwaukee next week.
Speaker 10: Apparently the answer is no. Apparently counter programming is instead
Speaker 10: the answer. But something else we've talked a lot about
Speaker 10: this week is the issue of China in particular. This
Speaker 10: is something that's the subject of conversation at Camp David,
Speaker 10: I'm sure right now between President Biden and the leaders
Speaker 10: of South Korea and Japan, but we've been talking a
Speaker 10: lot about concerns around China's economy too.
Speaker 3: We have, and as we're talking about it, we also
Speaker 3: have a whole new committee in Congress devoted.
Speaker 7: Just to China.
Speaker 3: So that's a focus. Whether you know, the Republicans in
Speaker 3: Congress and the White House have the right, are on
Speaker 3: the same page and their directions is a whole other thing.
Speaker 3: But certainly it is a tunnel vision on China in
Speaker 3: a lot of ways.
Speaker 10: Yeah, And it's a difficult needle to thread when you
Speaker 10: are trying to compete with China. But China looks like
Speaker 10: it has some frigilities going on right now. So how
Speaker 10: do you go without going too far? I mean I
Speaker 10: just pulled up. This is one of my favorite functions
Speaker 10: on the Bloomberg Terminal. Everyone, So listen closely. Read Go
Speaker 10: shows you some of the top red stories over any
Speaker 10: given time period, and this week, among the top ten
Speaker 10: red stories on the Bloomberg Terminal. China Shadow Bank misses
Speaker 10: dozens of payments, sparking protests. China fiance giants miss payments,
Speaker 10: alarm regulators and markets. China cuts rate by most since
Speaker 10: twenty twenty as economic woes deepen. Let's bring in now
Speaker 10: David Weston. He is the host of Wall Street Week,
Speaker 10: which airs tonight at six pm Wall Street Time on
Speaker 10: Bloomberg TV. David and the conversations you've had this week.
Speaker 10: How concerned are big investors about China?
Speaker 11: Well you have to be, don't you. I mean, it's
Speaker 11: the second largest economy in the world, whether we like
Speaker 11: it or not. We're very much intertwined with them, and
Speaker 11: it's certainly foreign. President Trump managed to get in a diamond,
Speaker 11: but President g did not have a great week either.
Speaker 11: I don't think we given just a raft of bad
Speaker 11: economic news kept coming in and we have been so concerned,
Speaker 11: as Billy just said, with the strength of China that
Speaker 11: maybe it's gotten too strong economically, particularly in things like
Speaker 11: some conductors. But the question comes up, do we want
Speaker 11: a strong China or a week China? And so we
Speaker 11: talked to Larry Summers and we asked him just exactly
Speaker 11: that question, do we want a strong China or week China.
Speaker 5: It's two edged. It's good when you're customer prospers, and
Speaker 5: it's bad when your competitor gets hyper efficient. So it's
Speaker 5: a two edged thing. I am concerned that we will
Speaker 5: become the object of China's frustration and that will tempt
Speaker 5: them to lash out.
Speaker 11: So that's Larry Summer's talking about some of the concerns
Speaker 11: he has about a week China. And I must say,
Speaker 11: Kaylee and Billy, one of the things I'm hearing I
Speaker 11: heard how an Aspena was out there. I heard with
Speaker 11: Larry actually as well an analogy, and it's a strained analogy,
Speaker 11: as all analogies are, but an analogy to Japan leading
Speaker 11: a War two where if you recall, we embargued them
Speaker 11: on oil and many people think that was one of
Speaker 11: the triggering factors of Pearl Harbor. The question is if
Speaker 11: we really cut them off too severely, might they, as
Speaker 11: Larry just said, lash out if not at us said,
Speaker 11: maybe it's somebody like Taiwan.
Speaker 3: While you're out there, do you hear much comment about
Speaker 3: the proposed new Biden administration outbound investment restrictions with China.
Speaker 11: It's funny. I think what I would say, Billy, is
Speaker 11: that everyone agreed we have to do something to maintain
Speaker 11: a lead in things like the super small semiconductors that
Speaker 11: allow us to do AI that they said, maybe a
Speaker 11: five year lead. We have to do what we can
Speaker 11: to maintain them. But the concern was that it's very
Speaker 11: hard to be really narrowly targeted on that and not
Speaker 11: how to it spread into a larger form of protectionism,
Speaker 11: and particularly as it gets political, then everybody's got an
Speaker 11: iron in the fire and we say, okay, for the
Speaker 11: name of national defense, we're also going to embargo those
Speaker 11: other things. That was the biggest concern that it will
Speaker 11: go too far.
Speaker 10: Well, speaking of going too far, we've had that concern
Speaker 10: with a lot of central banks as well, like the FED,
Speaker 10: whether they were going to go too far in their
Speaker 10: rate hiking campaign ultimately crash land the US economy that
Speaker 10: it felt like we were having more of a soft
Speaker 10: landing conversation. But the bond market's been kind of wacky
Speaker 10: this week as well. David, for all the conversation about China,
Speaker 10: which I'm sure has played a role in it, what
Speaker 10: conversations have you had around what we're seeing in bonds?
Speaker 10: I know Larry Summers weigh in on that too.
Speaker 11: Yeah, forgive me if I come back to Larry, because
Speaker 11: one of the questions I asked if Larry, as I
Speaker 11: asked if Rick reader last week, is where does the
Speaker 11: ten year yield want to be? I mean, where is
Speaker 11: it headed? And Larry had a very specific answer, and
Speaker 11: you can agree with it you disagree with But what
Speaker 11: I liked about it is it broke it down. He's basically,
Speaker 11: this is arithmetic. The yield in the ten year is
Speaker 11: composed of three things. Number one is underlying inflation. He said, Okay,
Speaker 11: let's be generous and say we get it done to
Speaker 11: two point five percent. So there you get two point five.
Speaker 11: Then there's a real yield that historically has been at
Speaker 11: least one point five. Actually it's been higher in general,
Speaker 11: but one point five. So add another one point five
Speaker 11: on and there's a term premium that's normally around seventy
Speaker 11: five basis points. You add all that up, you come
Speaker 11: up with four point seventy five. So Larry might well
Speaker 11: say to you, Kayley, I'm not sure the bond market's
Speaker 11: been all that wacky.
Speaker 9: Hm.
Speaker 3: How impactful were the Federal minutes on all this, do
Speaker 3: you think? Or is that just one element of all
Speaker 3: the things.
Speaker 11: That played upon Well, it's an interesting question, Billy, because
Speaker 11: what you would have studied them close, more closer than
Speaker 11: I have. But what I took away from is there's concern,
Speaker 11: continued concern about inflation. They may not have gone far
Speaker 11: enough yet, but I think that I thought that the
Speaker 11: discussion this week shifted a little bit from are they
Speaker 11: going to raise again? They may, they may not to
Speaker 11: how long are they going to have to stay up
Speaker 11: above five? And it's sort of a growing sense that
Speaker 11: they're going to has to stay up there for a while,
Speaker 11: as opposed to the markets that for so long we're
Speaker 11: pricing in cuts as early as you know, the first
Speaker 11: quarter of next year, and that really makes a big
Speaker 11: difference as a practice uner in things like equity valuations
Speaker 11: because of the discount right, well.
Speaker 10: Sure, equity valuations, but also things like I don't know
Speaker 10: how much it costs to buy a home, what your
Speaker 10: mortgage rate is. I think it's now at the highest
Speaker 10: since two thousand and one, which means a first time
Speaker 10: home buyer like myself may never become a first time
Speaker 10: home buyer unless something changes. But I will digress on
Speaker 10: my personal so well.
Speaker 11: So I have to jump in there. I have to
Speaker 11: reassure you the first house I bought was in nineteen
Speaker 11: eighty one, and my mortgage I think was seventeen So
Speaker 11: it's all relatively we managed to handles. You can do that,
Speaker 11: I think. But by the way, there's another debtor that
Speaker 11: we have to think about here. It's not just how
Speaker 11: much we pay for mortgages. How much is the federal
Speaker 11: government going to have to pay on its debt? Because
Speaker 11: I saw a thing actually out of Miam McGinnis's shop,
Speaker 11: you know, the Committee for the Responsible Federal Budget today
Speaker 11: that really indicated how much more we're going to owe
Speaker 11: if it stays up well above four percent on the tenure.
Speaker 10: And David just quickly, we only have about a minute left.
Speaker 10: But who else should we be looking forward to? On
Speaker 10: Wall Street Week tonight.
Speaker 11: Well, we got Steve Ratner on with Larry because we
Speaker 11: want to talk to Larry about where the tenure is,
Speaker 11: but we want to talk to a real investor who
Speaker 11: invests billions of dollars about what difference it makes whether
Speaker 11: it's four point five or three point five. And then
Speaker 11: we took a look at activist investing with a filla
Speaker 11: named Greg Taxon who has spent his career in that.
Speaker 11: And I don't know if you've noticed. I had not
Speaker 11: really noticed. It's dropped off substantially, and we wanted to
Speaker 11: talk to him what caused that and is it coming back?
Speaker 11: What is the dynamics of activist investing?
Speaker 10: Awesome? Well, really looking forward to watching that. You can
Speaker 10: catch that six pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg TV,
Speaker 10: so don't miss it. David Weston, host of Wall Street Week,
Speaker 10: thank you very much for joining us, and thank you
Speaker 10: for giving me a little bit more confidence on my
Speaker 10: ability to buy a home.
Speaker 11: Something you can do it you can get in the future.
Speaker 10: Thank you, David. This is the kind of energy I
Speaker 10: need on a Friday. David Weston joining us. Billy House
Speaker 10: also in the house, I'm Kayley Lines. You are listening
Speaker 10: to Bloomberg