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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: And welcome to Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Amy Morris in

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Speaker 2: for Joe Matthew alongside Bloomberg Congressional reporter Billy House on

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Speaker 2: this Friday afternoon. This hour on sound On, we're going

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Speaker 2: to be talking with longtime Iowa political journalist Dave Price.

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Speaker 2: He's going to bring us up to speed on the

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Speaker 2: presidential candidates in Iowa this past week and what we've

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Speaker 2: learned ahead of next week's debate, and Billy House is

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Speaker 2: with me. Billy, it's going to be interesting to see

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Speaker 2: who besides Donald Trump may have picked up a little

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Speaker 2: traction in Iowa.

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Speaker 3: That's right, and hey, maybe we'll learn even who's trying

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Speaker 3: to gain more traction by raising his legal problems, including

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Speaker 3: this week's big indictment in Fulton County, Georgia.

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Speaker 2: Right, we're going to continue to watch that that's bound

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Speaker 2: to come up on the debate stage next week. We're

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Speaker 2: also going to be talking all of this over with

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Speaker 2: our political panel. Let's go now to Iowa, where I

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Speaker 2: will find Bloomberg National politics reporter Stephanie Lie a big

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Speaker 2: week on the campaign trail. Stephanie, it's only going to

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Speaker 2: get more interesting heading into next week's Republican debate. Tell

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Speaker 2: us what you are going to be watching for.

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Speaker 4: First, certainly, thank you so much for having me, and

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Speaker 4: to start, you know, we are still tracking whether or

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Speaker 4: not Donald Trump will attend the debate. According to sources

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Speaker 4: that we've been talking to, he's been leaning against it,

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Speaker 4: but might instead do an interview with Tucker Carlson, which

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Speaker 4: in fact would be a snub to the RNC and

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Speaker 4: to Fox News, who is hosting the debate. But we

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Speaker 4: are interested in what the other candidates are up to

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Speaker 4: as well, so Destantus super Pac has released a memo

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Speaker 4: earlier this month that was first reported by The New

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Speaker 4: York Times regarding his debate strategy, and what we saw

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Speaker 4: from that is that there's a growing interest.

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Speaker 3: Stephanie, this is Billy.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry.

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Speaker 3: We just got breaking news that Donald Trump does plan

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Speaker 3: to skip that first debate, So I just wanted to

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Speaker 3: let you know about that. He's going to sit in

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Speaker 3: and be with Tucker Carlson, the former.

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Speaker 4: Fox News host, Right right, definitely, And that's that's something

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Speaker 4: that we've been tracking for a while and it's something

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Speaker 4: that we will be watching closely. Yeah, I guess there's

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Speaker 4: nothing much more to add on up on my end

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Speaker 4: for that.

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Speaker 2: The govinor of Florida also Stephanie seeking to reshape his campaign.

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Speaker 2: Has he been getting any traction there?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's definitely been some interest on his

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Speaker 4: team's end to kind of refocus his messaging on more

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Speaker 4: kitchen table issues rather than trying to take on the

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Speaker 4: front runner head on. And in fact, in some of

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Speaker 4: these documents that were released by a super Packed, they

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Speaker 4: seem to think that the strategy should be to avoid

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Speaker 4: taking digs at Donald Trump and instead focused on the

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Speaker 4: other candidates, such as the zak Ramaswami who's rising in

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Speaker 4: the polls.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Stephanie, who is taking former President Trump head on.

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Speaker 3: And Trump is tracting a lot of crowds there. But

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Speaker 3: what is he What do people there say he's actually

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Speaker 3: done since twenty twenty to become president again?

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Speaker 4: Sure? Well, to start, you know, we've seen Chris Christy

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Speaker 4: take a pretty strong stance against Trump earlier We noticed

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Speaker 4: that he had mentioned that the Santus should you know,

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Speaker 4: take active jobs at the front runner. And in terms

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Speaker 4: of what voters are staying on the ground about what

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Speaker 4: they think of Trump, many of them have told me

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Speaker 4: that they valued his economic policy, his focus on national security,

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Speaker 4: and I think that's a messaging that's really resonated with

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Speaker 4: them and something that their campaign has really focused on. Right.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Stephanie for joining us. That's Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: National politics reporter Stephanie Laie in Iowa bringing us up

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Speaker 2: to speed on what she saw on the ground during

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Speaker 2: this past week when all the candidates were and they're

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Speaker 2: at the Iowa State Fair and making their way through

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Speaker 2: the state, Let's turn out a long time Iowa political

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Speaker 2: journalist Dave Price. Now Dave writes the Dave Price Perspective

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Speaker 2: column on Substack. He's also been following everything that's been

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Speaker 2: going on with all of the press residential hopefuls in Iowa. Dave,

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Speaker 2: great to have you. Did anybody get any buzz in

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Speaker 2: Iowa besides Donald Trump?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 6: Perhaps in their own ways. I think the one on

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Speaker 6: one conversations that the candidates, not Donald Trump because he

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Speaker 6: chose not to do it, but the one on one

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Speaker 6: time that these candidates had twelve of them with Governor

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Speaker 6: Kim Reynolds surely could be beneficial for them. Vivik Ramaswami

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Speaker 6: brought out a crowd, to Scott brought out a crowd,

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Speaker 6: DeSantis brought out a crowd. Nikki Haley had some people there.

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Speaker 6: So those moments could do them some good. But clearly

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Speaker 6: the whole experience with Trump coming and the people who

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Speaker 6: gathered around to see them probably attracted a good share

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Speaker 6: of the attention.

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Speaker 3: Hey are disability? Is are people satisfied with for instance,

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Speaker 3: Tim Scott saying he wants to stay positive, he doesn't

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Speaker 3: want to talk about other candidates, He wants to stay

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Speaker 3: above the whatever phray there might be in terms of

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Speaker 3: Trump and just speak to the issues. Is that satisfying

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Speaker 3: people out there?

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Speaker 6: Good question? How about a yes and no. I think

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Speaker 6: you can find two different camps on this because I

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Speaker 6: think you have some people who like that positivity from

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Speaker 6: Tim Scott and think that that could be a contrast

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Speaker 6: to DeSantis or Trump as a way for him to

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Speaker 6: stand out. At the same time, they question, then why

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Speaker 6: Scott is out there making almost some of the same

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Speaker 6: arguments that Trump is about that there are two tiered

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Speaker 6: system of justice and such, thinking that this could be

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Speaker 6: an opportunity for Scott to really pivot away from Trump,

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Speaker 6: and he has chosen not to do that. So I

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Speaker 6: think you get two different camps there, and because of that,

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Speaker 6: people have far different opinions about whether this is really

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Speaker 6: a success full path that Scott is trying to lay out.

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Speaker 2: It seems like that would make it harder to determine

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Speaker 2: if there really is anyone who may be turning into

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Speaker 2: a challenge for Donald Trump, for.

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Speaker 6: Sure, and I think that's what has some people kind

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Speaker 6: of scratching their heads about. You know, they get Chris

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Speaker 6: Christie's play right, although he's not really competing in Iowa,

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Speaker 6: and even Will Hurt, who's at the fair today, you

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Speaker 6: can see that where they've decided, look, I'm going to

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Speaker 6: lay out my ideas. I'm going to go hard against Trump.

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Speaker 6: Here's where we go. But for many of the other ones,

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Speaker 6: they're choosing not to really do that. Now, maybe Mike

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Speaker 6: Pence has dialed it up just a little bit as

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Speaker 6: he started talking about January sixth, but Nikki Haley, Tim Scott,

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Speaker 6: now Vivid Ramaswami has really been for the most part

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Speaker 6: positive about Trump from the get go, So perhaps it's

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Speaker 6: not as surprising with Tim, but Scott and haleyicular and

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Speaker 6: then now we'll see what Pence does. That could be

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Speaker 6: a way to really start separating themselves. So I'm curious

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Speaker 6: where they're where they are going to go from here

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Speaker 6: to try to maybe point some differences out to get

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Speaker 6: that separation. There should be if you're looking historically, if

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Speaker 6: it's going to be Trump, and we'll see if DeSantis

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Speaker 6: is going to be remain kind of the big player here,

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Speaker 6: but there should be another place here. This race should

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Speaker 6: be big enough for three primary contenders, if you will,

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Speaker 6: maybe four, But you know who would that three and

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Speaker 6: four be?

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Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly what I was going to say. You

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Speaker 2: can't say something like, oh, maybe three or four big

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Speaker 2: players for the primary? Okay, who would you think?

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Speaker 6: Well, and you know, we have a lot of time here,

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Speaker 6: and it would seem that if we go by history,

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Speaker 6: we'll probably see rise and fall here perhaps of a couple.

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Speaker 6: Ramaswami clearly has some attention and he gets people going

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Speaker 6: here and apparently he can wrap because he did that

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Speaker 6: on stage, right, But you know, will he have enough

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Speaker 6: separation you know, where's the point of distinction between Ramaswami

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Speaker 6: and Trump. Clearly they're not clones by any means. But

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Speaker 6: if these candidates are not really going to use these

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Speaker 6: moments and all of these indictments to lay out their

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Speaker 6: case why they should replace Trump as the nominee, then

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Speaker 6: how do they really build this?

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Speaker 3: Hey, Dave Billy here, I'm kind of curious, just on

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Speaker 3: the sidelines, what are state Democrats and other Democrats doing

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Speaker 3: in terms of mischief or whatever?

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Speaker 1: Else?

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Speaker 3: Is the Republicans kind of tour the map there?

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Speaker 6: I don't know about mischief necessarily, but I think, you know, honestly,

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Speaker 6: they're this is going to sound harsh, but they're trying

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Speaker 6: to figure out how do they become relevant in all

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Speaker 6: of this. Joe Biden is not a not a popular

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Speaker 6: guy in this state. He frankly has never fared well

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Speaker 6: in this state other than when he was Barack Obama's

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Speaker 6: vice president. So he's not a popular guy. What is

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Speaker 6: really going to change that At a time that Democrats

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Speaker 6: have really plummeted in this state. I think Democrats are

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Speaker 6: trying to figure out where to pick their spots. You

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Speaker 6: have a couple of the legislative leaders who are doing

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Speaker 6: these kind of extended listening tours, if you will. Across

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Speaker 6: the state House. Minority Leader Jennifer Confirst has really focused

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Speaker 6: on that quite a bit as they try to rebuild

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Speaker 6: in little pockets. But I think they know that this

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Speaker 6: is an uphill climb for a million reasons. But especially

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Speaker 6: when you have so many Republican presidential candidates actively campaigning,

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Speaker 6: how do state Democrats push back against that other than

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Speaker 6: just essentially putting out carbon copy statements about such and

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Speaker 6: such as a Trump clone or is too far right, etc. Etc.

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Speaker 6: It's pretty hard for them to go out after each

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Speaker 6: one individually.

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Speaker 2: And we are talking with Iowa political journalist Dave Price

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Speaker 2: about all the campaigning that's been going on in Iowa,

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Speaker 2: particularly among Republican presidential hopefuls in the past week or so. Dave,

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Speaker 2: there's been this rift between Governor Kim Reynolds and Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Does that make a difference in Iowa? Is Trump's support

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Speaker 2: so intense that it doesn't really matter what would turn

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Speaker 2: voters off on Trump in Iowa?

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Speaker 6: I am totally curious about this, and you know, I

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Speaker 6: wish I knew what the answer is, And we're so

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Speaker 6: many months out that It's hard to really know yet,

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Speaker 6: but Kim Reynolds I think is the most popular Republican

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Speaker 6: in the state of Iowa. And that's saying something. Chuck Grassley,

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Speaker 6: the US Senator, has been in office in one way

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Speaker 6: or the other since the nineteen fifties. But when you

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Speaker 6: go to events, Kim Reynolds gets the loudest ovation, the

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Speaker 6: most sustained applause. And she used that at the fair,

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Speaker 6: these one on one chats that she did with the candidate.

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Speaker 6: So to have Donald Trump really unnecessarily poke at this

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Speaker 6: relationship seems intriguing, maybe kind of bizarre, unforced and so.

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Speaker 6: And also in this really didn't get a lot of

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Speaker 6: headlines yet. But Governor Reynolds has talked about that she

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Speaker 6: would remain neutral. However, in the past week she left

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Speaker 6: open the chance that late in this process she could

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Speaker 6: endorse somebody. Doesn't mean she will, and she by no

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Speaker 6: means said, hey, it's going to be somebody besides Donald Trump.

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Speaker 6: So I don't want to oversell it here, but just

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Speaker 6: the fact that she said that was interesting to me

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Speaker 6: that it maybe meant that in the back of her

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Speaker 6: mind she's thinking about some stuff.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Hey, I.

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Speaker 3: Was out there one time when pat you can and

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Speaker 3: refused to kiss babies, but he did kiss piglets. So

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Speaker 3: I'm being facetious there. But which candidates actually seems to

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Speaker 3: have a more human connectedness with the people one on

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Speaker 3: one that you've seen? Actually, who's got that ability that

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Speaker 3: may have surprised you or come out of nowhere?

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean, you know, the knock on DeSantis is

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Speaker 6: that is not who he is. And we'll see if

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Speaker 6: this works. But there's no question that DeSantis two point

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Speaker 6: oh or three point h or whatever you want to

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Speaker 6: argue here is they've tried to refocus some things. He

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Speaker 6: did go out and do some of the traditional fair things.

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Speaker 6: He was even out on the bumper cards with his

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Speaker 6: kids and walking around with his very much a lot

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Speaker 6: more focus on his wife and kids now on this

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Speaker 6: as they tried to move out. It doesn't really seem

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Speaker 6: that the conversations with people. Sorry, my allergies are kicking

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Speaker 6: in from the fair and all the corn here.

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Speaker 2: I can understand that, but.

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Speaker 6: You know, maybe that's just not what comes easiest to him.

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Speaker 6: Ramaswami seems very easy, an easy conversationalist. Nikki Haley does,

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Speaker 6: Tim Scott does. I walked around a while with Tim

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Speaker 6: Scott and Senator Joni Ernst, and he seems very much

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Speaker 6: at ease talking to people. And you know, this like

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Speaker 6: it's an art and the people who have had success

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Speaker 6: in this state can relate to people very quickly. Trump

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Speaker 6: does it in his own way. And his fair visit

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Speaker 6: wasn't like the other ones. He wasn't really working at.

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Speaker 6: He did his event, He had his entourage, They had

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Speaker 6: a couple of speakers assembled around him and kind of

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Speaker 6: personal anecdotes and why they think that he's would be

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Speaker 6: good to reelect and such, and what he's done for

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Speaker 6: the country and that kind of stuff. But it wasn't

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Speaker 6: like the retail politicking that we're used to seeing at

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Speaker 6: the fair, and it is it's it's a gift that

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Speaker 6: people have. Terry brand instead, longtime governor here. That was

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Speaker 6: something he can do. Kim Reynolds could do it, Chuck

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Speaker 6: Grassley could do it. Tom Harkin can do it, the

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Speaker 6: longtime Democrat. So it's just a thing you can't fake.

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Speaker 6: You're either good at walking up to people and it

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Speaker 6: looks like you like people, you know, like Bill Clinton

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Speaker 6: was so good at that, seeing him walking around here.

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Speaker 6: Some people are just really good and some people aren't.

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Speaker 6: Perhaps Hillary Clinton wasn't as good as Barack Obama and

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Speaker 6: maybe that made a difference in people's perceptions of them. No,

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Speaker 6: those moments, I think you really learn a lot from them.

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Speaker 2: We only have about twenty seconds here, and I need

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Speaker 2: to ask you this because you mentioned being at the

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Speaker 2: fair all this past week. Your favorite food go.

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Speaker 6: Oh Man, favorites are tough, but they have this awesome

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Speaker 6: bacon brisket, mac and cheese.

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Speaker 2: Oh stop, that's.

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Speaker 6: Just an amazing combination.

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Speaker 2: Of we're calling it, Dave, just cut it out. Dave Price,

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Speaker 2: longtime Iowa political journalist, author of the Dave Price Perspective

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Speaker 2: column on Substack, Thank you so much for your time.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: And you're listening to sound don i Abe Morris in

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Speaker 2: for Joe Matthew alongside Bloomberg Congressional reporter Billy House. Want

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Speaker 2: to turn now to our political panel with Bloomberg Politics

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Speaker 2: contributor Jeanie she and Zano and Lester Munson, principle at

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Speaker 2: bg R Government Affairs. Thanks both of you for joining

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Speaker 2: us today. There's a two day form going on in

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Speaker 2: Atlanta today and tomorrow, the last big showcase event before

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Speaker 2: next week's Republican presidential debate. And Lester, let's start with you.

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Speaker 2: What are you going to be looking for coming out

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Speaker 2: of this forum, considering if I may sidebar and Trump

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Speaker 2: or former President Trump wasn't even invited to this.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and we still don't know if he's going to

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Speaker 7: be in the debate next week either. And I think

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Speaker 7: it's important for folks to remember this is still wide open.

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Speaker 7: People aren't actually going to be voting in any kind

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Speaker 7: of nomination process yet on the Republican side for five months,

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Speaker 7: so there's a long way to go here. Yes, the

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Speaker 7: former president is in the lead, and there's a little

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Speaker 7: bit of movement with respect to Ron DeSantis and Vivek

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Speaker 7: Ramaswami and some of these other candidates, but it's still

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Speaker 7: a wide open opportunity for one of these candidates to

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Speaker 7: distinguish themselves become the front runner or near front runner

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Speaker 7: and maybe make a real challenge against former President Trump.

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Speaker 7: So I think it's I think the most important thing

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Speaker 7: going into these events in the next few days is

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Speaker 7: to look for people who are going to take advantage

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Speaker 7: of the opportunity. This is entrepreneurial, forward leaning. Somebody's willing

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Speaker 7: to take some risks, probably going to pay off for him.

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Speaker 3: Lester, this is Billy. We just we got late breaking

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Speaker 3: news a little while ago that he will not that

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Speaker 3: Trump will not participate in the Trump He'll do an

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Speaker 3: interview with instead at the time. But let me ask

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Speaker 3: you this. You say, who will seize this opportunity? What

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Speaker 3: does that mean? Does that mean attacking Trump? Or does

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Speaker 3: that mean, as Tim Scott has been doing, sticking to

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Speaker 3: the positive or is there some kind of middle ground

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Speaker 3: that might be successful for someone.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think I think there's a huge opportunity for

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Speaker 7: someone who will attack the former president in this sense,

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Speaker 7: call him out on the deceptions about the twenty twenty election. Call,

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Speaker 7: you know, be a truth teller about the election. The

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Speaker 7: reason Donald Trump is not a good candidate for twenty

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Speaker 7: four the argument should be, is that he lost in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty this is he's a proven losing candidate, and

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Speaker 7: the there's a huge opportunity for a Republican to point

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Speaker 7: that out. It's clear to Scott won't do it, at

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Speaker 7: least thus far. Ron DeSantis has campaigned his pack put

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Speaker 7: memos on the internet inexplicably to that effect. So there's

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Speaker 7: an opportunity for one of these other candidates to say

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Speaker 7: it's time we face reality and we need to nominate

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Speaker 7: someone who can win. I think that kind of risk

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Speaker 7: taking will be rewarded. The big opportunity there, Genie.

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Speaker 2: Let me shift to you for a second. Miami's mayor

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Speaker 2: Francis Suarez has says he's qualified for his first GOP debate,

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Speaker 2: But now we're getting word from the RNZ that they

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Speaker 2: can't confirm that. And Billy and I were talking about

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Speaker 2: this off air, and it seems like not a terribly

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Speaker 2: hard thing to confirm. But maybe there are some other

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Speaker 2: things in motion here that we wouldn't be privy to.

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Speaker 2: Why wouldn't the RNC be able to confirm something like that.

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Speaker 8: You know, it may be a matter of time. We

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Speaker 8: do know he has met the donor threshold. I believe

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Speaker 8: the sticking point is on the polling and so you know,

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Speaker 8: the requirements are pretty stringent, and they have stuck to that.

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Speaker 8: He is missing or was missing at last check before

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Speaker 8: he said he made it two poles. He had to

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Speaker 8: reach one percent in one national poll and one Iowa

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Speaker 8: pole or an additional national poll and one pole that's

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Speaker 8: not Iowa. So it's a little bit confusing, and they

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Speaker 8: may just still be going through that. But by you know,

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Speaker 8: by what we're seeing, Suarez would be sort of the

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Speaker 8: last person who we don't know of yet who might

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Speaker 8: make it or might not. Everybody else we know of

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Speaker 8: who's met the polling and donor and sign the pledge DeSantis, Ramaswami, Haley,

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Speaker 8: Scott Bergham. Of course, Trump, Pence, and Christy all meet

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Speaker 8: the donor poles. They hadn't signed the pledge as of

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Speaker 8: this morning, although Christy said it's just a matter of time,

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Speaker 8: and I'm assuming that's true for Pence, and obviously now

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Speaker 8: that Trump is out, he won't be signing that pledge.

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Speaker 8: Everybody else heard Hutchinson, they are all out for not

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Speaker 8: making either the polling or the donor threshold or signing

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Speaker 8: the pledge.

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Speaker 3: Gennie, how strange and how weird is it that there

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Speaker 3: will be also some eighteen people along with Trump, turning

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Speaker 3: themselves into the Fulton County Sheriff's office during the week

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Speaker 3: and including probably Wednesday as these other Republicans try to

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Speaker 3: hold a debate.

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Speaker 8: Oh, you know, strange? Is you know I think about

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Speaker 8: it when I teach young people, and I think, do

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Speaker 8: they think this is the way that our politics always are?

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Speaker 8: Is this how they think that as they get older,

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Speaker 8: that this is how life is going to be politically?

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Speaker 8: Because this is so bizarre, and you know, just thinking

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Speaker 8: about this Eric Erickson gathering that's taking place today that

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Speaker 8: you were just talking with Lester about that Trump's not attending.

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Speaker 8: It is literally ten miles from the jail where he

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Speaker 8: is going to be surrendering by next riding, and we

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Speaker 8: assume he will do it earlier. And so between that

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Speaker 8: and the split screen of him with an interview with

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Speaker 8: Tucker Carlson Fox News, the RNC Ronal McDaniel has got

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Speaker 8: to be pulling her hair out at this point that

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Speaker 8: this is where they are and they yes. You couple

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Speaker 8: that with eighteen other people who will be turning themselves

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Speaker 8: in by next Friday at noon, it's stunning.

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Speaker 2: Now, we are hearing from our political panel with Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Politics contributor Genie Cienzano and Lester Munson, principal at BGR

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Speaker 2: Government Affairs. Lester, this next question is for you because

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Speaker 2: you said something that really stuck with me. You were

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Speaker 2: talking about a candidate being brave, and who's going to

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Speaker 2: be brave and who's going to stand up and who's

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Speaker 2: going to take that pledge or take that stand against

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. There's a crowded stage that's going to be

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Speaker 2: there on Wednesday. Donald Trump's going to skip it. So

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Speaker 2: would that speak to the hold that Donald Trump still

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Speaker 2: has on the Republican Party or does it illustrate how

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Speaker 2: the party is trying to wriggle out of that hold

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Speaker 2: because so many people will be there.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think the hold that Donald Trump has on

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Speaker 7: the party is relayed as directly related to his ability

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Speaker 7: to win elections. The reason the Republican Party went more

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Speaker 7: populist in twenty sixteen is because it had failed to

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Speaker 7: win the two previous national elections in in two thousand

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Speaker 7: and eight and twenty twelve.

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Speaker 2: But he's won one. He's won one election.

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Speaker 7: That's right, and but the whole purpose of his effort

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Speaker 7: to discredit the twenty twenty election is to make sure

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Speaker 7: no one calls him a loser. But he lost. He

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Speaker 7: lost the election.

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Speaker 5: It is the.

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Speaker 7: Biggest strike against him for Republicans who are looking to

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Speaker 7: win the White House. They don't want to nominate someone

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Speaker 7: who's going to lose right now. Unless something changes, Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump will lose again if he's the nominee. He already

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Speaker 7: lost to Joe Biden once. Joe Biden was not a

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Speaker 7: terrific candidate frankly, at least not in my view. So

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Speaker 7: the best case an alternative to Donald Trump should be

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Speaker 7: making is I can win. I will win in twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty four. That's why you should take my candidacy seriously.

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Speaker 7: I will govern in a way that you find acceptable.

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Speaker 7: That and I will help you with eager bulls and

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Speaker 7: I will. But the biggest difference between me and Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump is I will win. So you have to go

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Speaker 7: straight at the election lies about twenty twenty. That's why

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Speaker 7: that issue is so important. Someone's got to show some

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Speaker 7: courage and be willing to take.

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Speaker 9: It of Genie.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump could say I can win, I can win,

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Speaker 3: but he's he's as his primary calendar plays out next year,

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Speaker 3: he's going to have to say I can win squeezed

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Speaker 3: in between probably some trials. So that's kind of an

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Speaker 3: awkward situation. And how do voters Super Tuesday voters, for instance,

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Speaker 3: perhaps react to the fact that his trial, one of

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Speaker 3: his trials in Georgia opened up the day before.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's astonishing. It's hard to imagine any person could

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Speaker 8: go between a political campaign, this tough running for president

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Speaker 8: and this many trial dates. It's got to stick in

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Speaker 8: the minds of voters. But the reality when we look

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Speaker 8: at the Republican primary polls that are out so far

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Speaker 8: and it is still early, is that they think that

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump can win. That's why his opponents are not

436
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Speaker 8: going in that direction. The direction that most people are

437
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 8: saying they should go in is not that we can

438
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 8: win and he can't, but he is going to be

439
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 8: too consumed with everything he's got on his plate to

440
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 8: move this forward. We like him, we understand why you

441
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 8: like him, but we can pick up the flack where

442
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 8: he is unable to because of the time constraints. I

443
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 8: don't see how they get around that until and unless

444
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 8: those polls change with Republican primary voters, because that thirty

445
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 8: forty percent Juggernaut is a pretty sizable majority with that

446
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 8: many people in the race at this point, much.

447
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: More still to come. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jenny she and

448
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 2: Zeno Lester Munthson, principal at bg R Government Affairs. I'm

449
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 2: Amy Morris. He's Billy House wanted to bring in now

450
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Kaylee Lines. She's going to be taking over the

451
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 2: show from here. Kayley, you're bringing us a power pack

452
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 2: to our to end this Friday, starting with your very

453
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,959
Speaker 2: first guest, Republican Brian's Style of Wisconsin.

454
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 10: Yeah, of Wisconsin, and Wisconsin's a very interesting state right

455
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,479
Speaker 10: now for many reasons. A President Biden was there earlier

456
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 10: this week in Milwaukee talking about his legislation, the Inflation

457
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 10: Reduction Act, which of course celebrated its first birthday this week.

458
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 10: I would imagine the Congressman, based on his activity on

459
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 10: x the platform formerly known as Twitter, doesn't necessarily agree

460
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 10: with everything the President was trying to tout there. But then,

461
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 10: more importantly, perhaps next week that's also where the debate

462
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,160
Speaker 10: in Milwaukee.

463
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 2: Will be happening.

464
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 10: We now know apparently former President Trump will not be

465
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 10: in attendance. I wonder what the congressman's thoughts on that are,

466
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 10: And then, of course, once we get past the debate,

467
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 10: we're really going to be talking about the showdown on

468
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 10: Capitol Hill we're probably set for in September and trying

469
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 10: to avoid a government shutdown. Will get his thoughts on

470
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 10: how that should be done.

471
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, I almost forgot there might be a

472
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 2: government shutdown.

473
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 10: Yeah, they're probably more likely than not unless they can

474
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 10: agree to a continuing resolution, which not every Republican in

475
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 10: Congress may want to agree.

476
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 2: To everything that's been going on politically. I almost let

477
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 2: something like that slip out of my radar, so that

478
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: the deadline for that's the end of September correct.

479
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 10: September thirtieth. Yes, theoretically, unless they can get together on

480
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 10: a continuing resolution, which will extend things to some point.

481
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 10: What that point is, I don't think any of us

482
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 10: really know. But if they can't do that, there is

483
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 10: a risk that come October first you do have the

484
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 10: government shut down.

485
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: But didn't Senator Schumer say that they were working on

486
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 2: that stop gap measure together like they seem to be

487
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 2: on at least the same page.

488
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 10: He and McCarthy. Sure, is McCarthy on the same page

489
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 10: as the rest of his caucus. This is the question

490
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 10: we continually come back to. We've seen this song and

491
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 10: dance on a few different fights before, and the showdown

492
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 10: over the shutdown probably won't be that much different.

493
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 2: And really quickly, You're also going to talk about the

494
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 2: climate agenda, Biden's climate agenda.

495
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 10: We sure will. And Biden's summon happening today at Camp

496
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 10: David with the leaders of Japan and South Korea.

497
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 2: That's huge, that's historic. I cannot wait to hear this.

498
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Bloomberg's Kaylee lines She's going to

499
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: take it the rest of the way from here. I'm

500
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 2: Amy Morris. Billy House is also going to stick around

501
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: the second hour of Sound Done. It starts right now.

502
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

503
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

504
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

505
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

506
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 10: It's great to be here with Billy House today. Billy

507
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 10: in the House. What's your Twitter?

508
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 3: A book?

509
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 10: That's what it is?

510
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 7: Right?

511
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 10: I have House and Session, House and Session even better. Yeah,

512
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 10: I really should have looked this up before I came

513
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 10: into the studio, But Billy, it's so great to have

514
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 10: you here, because, as we were just talking about with Amy,

515
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 10: we've been kind of in the August doldrums, although arguably

516
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 10: August has been way busier than I think anyone would

517
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 10: have anticipated with Congress and recess. But we need to

518
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 10: be looking toward the future because just in a couple

519
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 10: of weeks they're going to be coming back and it's

520
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 10: going to be a sprint to that September thirtieth deadline

521
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 10: to try to get these twelve appropriation bills through. What

522
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 10: are you hearing at this point about the likelihood of

523
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,719
Speaker 10: that actually going to be mission accomplished.

524
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: It's one of the great recent historical aspects of Congress

525
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 3: is that they take a law August break right before

526
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 3: spending bills are needed to be done to avoid a

527
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 3: government shutdown. So what we're hearing is that they aren't

528
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 3: going to do that. The Senate and the House will

529
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 3: not be able to do all twelve annual spending bills

530
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 3: before the October one start of the new fiscal year.

531
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 3: So both leaders, the Republican Leader of the House Speaker

532
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 3: McCarthy and the Senate Democratic Leader and majority leader in

533
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 3: the Senate, Schumer have this week said that a stopgap

534
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: bill will be needed. But that's anything but easy, and

535
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 3: there's going to be a rocky road ahead, and there

536
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,479
Speaker 3: are those who object, and so it's going to be

537
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 3: again another race to the deadline.

538
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 10: There, and it's going to be a busy September for

539
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 10: all of us. I'm sure. It is one thing to say, oh,

540
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 10: we'll just do a continuing resolution. It's another to actually

541
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 10: get a CR done.

542
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 3: Absolutely, there are people who have all kinds of demands

543
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: before they'll go along with that.

544
00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 10: All right, Well, let's see if our next guest has

545
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 10: any demands to go along with this. Congressman Brian Style

546
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 10: is joining us as a Republican from Wisconsin, also chair

547
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 10: of the House Administration Committee. Congressman, it's been a while.

548
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 10: Thank you so much for coming back to sound on

549
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 10: here on Bloomberg. What are your thoughts on a continuing resolution?

550
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 10: Can enough of your colleagues get behind it?

551
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 9: Well, thanks for having me on. I think what's so

552
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 9: important is we do not allow our federal government to

553
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 9: shut down. Ultimately, the way Congress operates pleads a lot

554
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 9: to be desired. No private sector business would operate like this.

555
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 9: That said, this is a situation we're in. We're not

556
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 9: probably going to get all of the appropriations bills done

557
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 9: in time. What we should do is extend the clock,

558
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 9: allow us to finish the work, rather than allowing us

559
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 9: to shut this down. I think at the end of

560
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 9: the day, we're going to find a way to keep

561
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 9: the government open and operational. I think that's prudent. But

562
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 9: then we do have to get to the work of

563
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 9: actually moving these appropriations bills forward.

564
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 3: Congressman's the push for a cr also comes with a

565
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: question about how long it should last, and the Speaker

566
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 3: McCarthy has said he does not want one that would

567
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: extend to the end of the year another and be

568
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 3: jammed by Congress what other What length do you think

569
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 3: they're looking at? And can the work get done by

570
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 3: whatever link that is?

571
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 9: Well, hopefully we can only do we can we can

572
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 9: limit this to short term extensions and really put the

573
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 9: pressure on the Appropriations Committee to finish the work, bring

574
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 9: the bills to the floor and get those pass. We've

575
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 9: noticed that the Senate hasn't gotten almost anything done this year,

576
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 9: which is a continuous problem, and the lack of action

577
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 9: on the Senate side, But I'm optimistic that we'll actually

578
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,479
Speaker 9: be able to get this done. The time is going

579
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 9: to tell Congressman.

580
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 10: You've joined this program many times before in which we've

581
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 10: talked about some of the discord within the Republican Party,

582
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 10: specifically within the House. You've described it as, you know,

583
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 10: a Thanksgiving family dinner that has hundreds of people really

584
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 10: hard to you know, navigate through that situation sometimes or

585
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 10: a long road trip. How much of that do you

586
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 10: think is going to go on around this fight. How

587
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 10: many members do you think could make some serious noise.

588
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 9: About this Well, I think you're going to see a

589
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 9: lot of jockeying for position here because the spending that's

590
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 9: been coming out of Washington for years now has been

591
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 9: wildly unchecked, and then further coming out of the pandemic,

592
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 9: what we saw as a dramatic increase in the amount

593
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 9: of spending particular and discretionary programs out a dramatic increase.

594
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 9: How do we bring that back into check. There's a

595
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 9: lot of people that have a lot of frustration about

596
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 9: how Congress operated previously. But again, at the end of

597
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 9: the day, when push comes to shove and the VOTs

598
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 9: come to the floor. I do think we'll have the

599
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 9: opportunity to prevent a government shut down and ultimately get

600
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 9: these appropriations bills complete.

601
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: How does a separate supplemental bill that includes perhaps money

602
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 3: for MAUI and other spending, disaster aid money and Ukraine money,

603
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 3: more money for the war in Ukraine? How does that

604
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,719
Speaker 3: get through? Does that just complicate everything or is that

605
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: part of this overall complicated quilt of things Congress needs.

606
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 5: To do well?

607
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 9: The President effectively brought a thirteenth appropriations bill idea up.

608
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 9: This is going to be all part of the broader

609
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 9: negotiation of whether or not we're able to limit the

610
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 9: growth of federal government spending, in particular on our discretionary programs.

611
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 9: So this is part of the broader conversation that we're

612
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,719
Speaker 9: going to have as we all return on the other

613
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 9: side of Labor Day. A ton of work in front

614
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 9: of us, but hopefully we can keep cool, our heads

615
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 9: prevailed and actually get these appropriations bills done.

616
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 10: Congressman, can I just ask you, it seems that no

617
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 10: one really is interested in sticking to what was agreed

618
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 10: in the debt ceiling debate. So I just wonder what

619
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 10: the whole point of the song and dance was from

620
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 10: earlier this year. If we're just going to have the

621
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 10: fight all over again in the next month.

622
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 9: Or so, well, I don't know that I fully agree

623
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 9: with you there. I do think there's a lot of

624
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 9: us that would like to see discussion spending cap within

625
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 9: the caps agreed to in the debt ceiling negotiation. I

626
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 9: think those are good caps for us to be targeting towards,

627
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 9: and I think it's actually quite doable to do that.

628
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 9: That said, there's going to be a negotiation with the Senate.

629
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 9: The Senate would love to spend money. Administration would love

630
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 9: to spend money. So we're going to have to hold

631
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 9: our ground, and it's going to be a grueling negotiation

632
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 9: because it's a battle between limiting the growth or federal

633
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 9: government spending and a continuation of really aggressive new government

634
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 9: spending that the Biden administration has been advocating for.

635
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 3: Are you tired of the constant drama? Every week? Every Monday,

636
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 3: there's a new drama facing you, guys, and by the

637
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 3: end of the week, you well, really squeak by Is

638
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 3: that going to just continue for the next year.

639
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 9: Well, there's plenty that I don't like about Washington, DC

640
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 9: and how it operates. But I would say that some

641
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 9: of that is largely driven by a media narrative underestimating

642
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 9: Republicans in the House only defined by the end of

643
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 9: the week that we've accomplished it and got it done.

644
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 9: And so I think what we're going to have to do,

645
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 9: we're often underestimated, we over deliver. We're going to have

646
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 9: to keep that attitude going forward to the remainder of

647
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 9: this Congress.

648
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 10: As we talk about the picture going forward and to

649
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 10: return to what was agreed to you in the dead

650
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 10: ceiling deal. I wonder if January first is the real deadline,

651
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 10: because that's when that one percent across the board spending

652
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 10: cut would kick in. Is that really the date we

653
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 10: should be looking at.

654
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 9: That's one of the days. But let's not lose sight

655
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 9: of the fact that, and in particularly relates to a

656
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 9: national defense, conducting a continuing resolution rather than passing an

657
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 9: appropriations bill is a really terrible policy. We're far better

658
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 9: off to pass a new appropriations bill, in particular with

659
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 9: how dynamic the global environment from a security situation is.

660
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 9: That said, I'd rather do a continuing resolution than shut

661
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 9: the government down, but it is not the right answer.

662
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 9: The right answer is to get the hard work done

663
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 9: of identifying where we need to be spending in the

664
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 9: United States, spending there and then spending in other areas well.

665
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 3: On that. Is there a problem, is there going to

666
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 3: be a problem passing a supplemental with Ukraine military finding, Well, hopefully.

667
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 9: That's part of the broader negotiation. Really, it's the top

668
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 9: line dollar that is both that is essential as well

669
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 9: as what we're spending on. And so the President put

670
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 9: forward the the supplemental as you noted, really creating that

671
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 9: thirteenth Appropriations Bill, as I said, but this is all

672
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 9: going to be part of a broader negotiation of how

673
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 9: we're going to get these spending bills done this year.

674
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 9: So on the.

675
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 10: Subject of the President, and if you've referred to the

676
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 10: Biden administration's policies a few times in this conversation, he

677
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 10: was in Wisconsin just a few days ago. He was

678
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 10: in Milwaukee talking about the Inflation Reduction Act, noting which

679
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 10: the data does support that inflation pressures have started to

680
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 10: ease in this economy. How much credit do you think

681
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 10: the administration's policies should get for that.

682
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 9: Well, they've eased, but they're still dramatically higher than the

683
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,919
Speaker 9: FED target of two percent. We have a long ways

684
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 9: to go to bring inflation back down. And if we

685
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 9: look at what's occurred over the course of the Biden administration,

686
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 9: the average American family is spending over seven hundred dollars

687
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 9: a month more than they were before President Biden took

688
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 9: office for the same things. So American families are still

689
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 9: getting squeezed their pocketbook. Pocketbooks recognize that Biden economics has

690
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 9: been disastrous to American families. I think at the end

691
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 9: of the day, the American voters are going to recognize

692
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 9: that and vote them out of office in twenty twenty four, Well.

693
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 3: It sounds like you didn't join in the one year

694
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:12,399
Speaker 3: anniversary celebrations of the Inflation Reduction Act, But you're right,

695
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 3: some surveys do show and angst and anxiousness among the

696
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 3: ordinary people over the economy, and that's already seems to

697
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 3: be taking hold in some of the twenty twenty four

698
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 3: congressional election campaigning.

699
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 5: No.

700
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 9: Absolutely, you can just pretty much talk to anybody. I mean,

701
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 9: you can talk to any American family. Wages haven't kept

702
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 9: up with inflation. Sure, inflation has slowed a touch, but

703
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 9: it's still, American families are finding themselves further behind the

704
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 9: eight ball than they were when President Biden took office.

705
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 9: And so the question here is how do we turn

706
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 9: that around. He pretty much needs you to do the

707
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 9: opposite of what the Biden administration has done. He's conducted

708
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 9: a warrant energy. Instead, he should be unleashing American energy.

709
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 9: He paid people not to work after the pandemic was over.

710
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 9: You got to work to get people back to work,

711
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 9: but not only that, but to higher paying jobs. On

712
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 9: shoring American work, what are the IRA do? It really

713
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 9: sent a ton of money to foreign companies and created

714
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 9: taxes on American manufacturers, Literally the opposite of what you'd

715
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 9: want to do if you're trying to spur growth and

716
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 9: help American workers.

717
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 10: Well, if we're talking about Americans pocket books and things

718
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 10: that have been spurring both growth, consumer spending is a

719
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 10: big one of them. It's consistently held up. But people

720
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,879
Speaker 10: also haven't been having to pay monthly student loan debt

721
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 10: repayments for a while. Now that's going to change in October.

722
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 10: Should we be worried about the consequence for the US economy?

723
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 10: And I asked this, given your role on the Financial

724
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 10: Services Committee.

725
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 9: No, we should be worried about the consequences of the

726
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 9: fact that the Biden administration was trying to convince people

727
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 9: that they didn't have to pay their debts for over

728
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 9: a year, and the five billion dollars of that cost

729
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 9: American public every single month. The fact that the Biden

730
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 9: administration has planned to effectively subsidize everything but not actually

731
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 9: address the root causes should be concerning. You'll just look

732
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 9: at that student debt program. It did nothing to address

733
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 9: the underlying issue, which is the high cost of education,

734
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 9: had everything to do with subsidizing the higher education system,

735
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:06,760
Speaker 9: which is what's caused the problem in the first place.

736
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 3: So anything happening in Wisconsin next week.

737
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 9: I look forward to. I look forward to the conversation

738
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 9: that we're going to have. I think it's all about

739
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 9: whether or not we can present a future for the

740
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 9: American public different and in contrast to the Biden administrations,

741
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 9: and the contrast is ready for the taking. The hope

742
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 9: here is that we don't delve into a personality contest,

743
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 9: but rather we have a conversation about the policies needed

744
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 9: to move the country forward.

745
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 10: But Congressman, if you want to be president of the

746
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 10: United States. Should you be showing up to the debate,

747
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 10: regardless of whether or not you were president before or

748
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 10: the front runner.

749
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 9: I'll let the President Trump speak for himself. I'm not

750
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 9: going to offer him advice on that in that regard,

751
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 9: But ultimately, I think the more we're having a conversation

752
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 9: about the disastrous policies from the Biden administration, and the

753
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 9: more we're presenting an alternative option to the American people

754
00:38:56,280 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 9: about economic growth, about limiting inflation, about securing the US

755
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 9: Mexico border, we have a great opportunity to be successful

756
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty four.

757
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 3: Fallate people showing up on the debate stage refuse to

758
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 3: suggest anything about the former president. Won't there be a

759
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 3: big missing element to that debate? Should somebody attack or

760
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 3: at least address the legal problems that the former president has.

761
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,479
Speaker 9: I don't think people lack for information about President Trump.

762
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 9: I think what people lack is a real clear path

763
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 9: about where we need to take the country, and contrast

764
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 9: that with where President Biden has taken the country. Over

765
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 9: the course of the past two and a half years,

766
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 9: the media focused attention on former President Trump and everything

767
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 9: unrelated to actual policies that need to be implemented, to

768
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 9: get the country back on track, I think as a

769
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 9: disservice to the American people, and hopefully on the debate stage,

770
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 9: we're actually talking about the future of our country.

771
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 10: All right, final question for you, Congressman, why is Milwaukee

772
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 10: such a good place for the first first debate? Is

773
00:39:58,760 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 10: it the beer? Is it the cheese?

774
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 9: It is all of the above. I'm in Wisconsin right now.

775
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 9: I'm let me tell you there is no place you'd

776
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 9: rather be than Wisconsin in August. This is the perfect weather,

777
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 9: it is the perfect beer, it's the best cheese, and we're

778
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 9: gonna have a great time in Milwaukee next week.

779
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 10: Well, I've been choking on humidity here in Washington for

780
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 10: the last month, so I'm sure you're really eager to

781
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 10: get back to that. Congressman, thank you very much for

782
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 10: giving us some of your time this afternoon. Congressman Brian Style,

783
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 10: the Republican from Wisconsin and chair of the House Administration

784
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 10: Committee as well, It's going to be an interesting one

785
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 10: in Milwaukee next week, Billy, that is for sure. Regardless

786
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 10: of whether or not the former president is there, he

787
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 10: is going to haunt that stage.

788
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 3: Absolutely. They lost Aaron Rodgers but they have the debate.

789
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 10: Do you know anything about Packers football other than Aaron Rodgers.

790
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: I own stock. I bought a piece of stock.

791
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 10: Well, there you go. Very cool. I'm a Broncos fan myself.

792
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 3: I'm a Bills fan, but whatever, you know.

793
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 10: We talk about getting to the end of the August recess,

794
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 10: the start of the shutdown battle and all of that.

795
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 10: What's more important about September is it brings back NFL football,

796
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 10: like for real, not preseasons.

797
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 9: Yeah.

798
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,720
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, once you get past these preseason games,

799
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 3: don't mind.

800
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

801
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

802
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

803
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

804
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

805
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 10: Happy Friday, everyone, and welcome back to Bloomberg Sound On.

806
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 10: It is Kayle Lines in the seat today, but joining

807
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 10: me is Billy House, one of our congressional reporters here

808
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 10: at Bloomberg. Well, Joe Matthew takes a well deserved long weekend,

809
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 10: and what a week. It has been, Billy. We've talked

810
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 10: a lot about all of the different stuff going on

811
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 10: in domestic politics, least of all another indictment for former

812
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 10: President Trump, the questions around whether or not he's going

813
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 10: to show up at the debate in Milwaukee next week.

814
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 10: Apparently the answer is no. Apparently counter programming is instead

815
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,919
Speaker 10: the answer. But something else we've talked a lot about

816
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 10: this week is the issue of China in particular. This

817
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 10: is something that's the subject of conversation at Camp David,

818
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 10: I'm sure right now between President Biden and the leaders

819
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 10: of South Korea and Japan, but we've been talking a

820
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 10: lot about concerns around China's economy too.

821
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:18,439
Speaker 3: We have, and as we're talking about it, we also

822
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 3: have a whole new committee in Congress devoted.

823
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 7: Just to China.

824
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 3: So that's a focus. Whether you know, the Republicans in

825
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 3: Congress and the White House have the right, are on

826
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 3: the same page and their directions is a whole other thing.

827
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 3: But certainly it is a tunnel vision on China in

828
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: a lot of ways.

829
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 10: Yeah, And it's a difficult needle to thread when you

830
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 10: are trying to compete with China. But China looks like

831
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 10: it has some frigilities going on right now. So how

832
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 10: do you go without going too far? I mean I

833
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 10: just pulled up. This is one of my favorite functions

834
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 10: on the Bloomberg Terminal. Everyone, So listen closely. Read Go

835
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 10: shows you some of the top red stories over any

836
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 10: given time period, and this week, among the top ten

837
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 10: red stories on the Bloomberg Terminal. China Shadow Bank misses

838
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 10: dozens of payments, sparking protests. China fiance giants miss payments,

839
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 10: alarm regulators and markets. China cuts rate by most since

840
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 10: twenty twenty as economic woes deepen. Let's bring in now

841
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 10: David Weston. He is the host of Wall Street Week,

842
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,839
Speaker 10: which airs tonight at six pm Wall Street Time on

843
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 10: Bloomberg TV. David and the conversations you've had this week.

844
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 10: How concerned are big investors about China?

845
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 11: Well you have to be, don't you. I mean, it's

846
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 11: the second largest economy in the world, whether we like

847
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 11: it or not. We're very much intertwined with them, and

848
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 11: it's certainly foreign. President Trump managed to get in a diamond,

849
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 11: but President g did not have a great week either.

850
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,720
Speaker 11: I don't think we given just a raft of bad

851
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 11: economic news kept coming in and we have been so concerned,

852
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 11: as Billy just said, with the strength of China that

853
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 11: maybe it's gotten too strong economically, particularly in things like

854
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 11: some conductors. But the question comes up, do we want

855
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 11: a strong China or a week China? And so we

856
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 11: talked to Larry Summers and we asked him just exactly

857
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 11: that question, do we want a strong China or week China.

858
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 5: It's two edged. It's good when you're customer prospers, and

859
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 5: it's bad when your competitor gets hyper efficient. So it's

860
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 5: a two edged thing. I am concerned that we will

861
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 5: become the object of China's frustration and that will tempt

862
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 5: them to lash out.

863
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 11: So that's Larry Summer's talking about some of the concerns

864
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 11: he has about a week China. And I must say,

865
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 11: Kaylee and Billy, one of the things I'm hearing I

866
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 11: heard how an Aspena was out there. I heard with

867
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 11: Larry actually as well an analogy, and it's a strained analogy,

868
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 11: as all analogies are, but an analogy to Japan leading

869
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 11: a War two where if you recall, we embargued them

870
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 11: on oil and many people think that was one of

871
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 11: the triggering factors of Pearl Harbor. The question is if

872
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 11: we really cut them off too severely, might they, as

873
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 11: Larry just said, lash out if not at us said,

874
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 11: maybe it's somebody like Taiwan.

875
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 3: While you're out there, do you hear much comment about

876
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 3: the proposed new Biden administration outbound investment restrictions with China.

877
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 11: It's funny. I think what I would say, Billy, is

878
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 11: that everyone agreed we have to do something to maintain

879
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:14,719
Speaker 11: a lead in things like the super small semiconductors that

880
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 11: allow us to do AI that they said, maybe a

881
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 11: five year lead. We have to do what we can

882
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 11: to maintain them. But the concern was that it's very

883
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 11: hard to be really narrowly targeted on that and not

884
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,879
Speaker 11: how to it spread into a larger form of protectionism,

885
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 11: and particularly as it gets political, then everybody's got an

886
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 11: iron in the fire and we say, okay, for the

887
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 11: name of national defense, we're also going to embargo those

888
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 11: other things. That was the biggest concern that it will

889
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 11: go too far.

890
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 10: Well, speaking of going too far, we've had that concern

891
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 10: with a lot of central banks as well, like the FED,

892
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 10: whether they were going to go too far in their

893
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 10: rate hiking campaign ultimately crash land the US economy that

894
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 10: it felt like we were having more of a soft

895
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 10: landing conversation. But the bond market's been kind of wacky

896
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 10: this week as well. David, for all the conversation about China,

897
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 10: which I'm sure has played a role in it, what

898
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,800
Speaker 10: conversations have you had around what we're seeing in bonds?

899
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 10: I know Larry Summers weigh in on that too.

900
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,399
Speaker 11: Yeah, forgive me if I come back to Larry, because

901
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 11: one of the questions I asked if Larry, as I

902
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 11: asked if Rick reader last week, is where does the

903
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 11: ten year yield want to be? I mean, where is

904
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 11: it headed? And Larry had a very specific answer, and

905
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 11: you can agree with it you disagree with But what

906
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 11: I liked about it is it broke it down. He's basically,

907
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 11: this is arithmetic. The yield in the ten year is

908
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 11: composed of three things. Number one is underlying inflation. He said, Okay,

909
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 11: let's be generous and say we get it done to

910
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 11: two point five percent. So there you get two point five.

911
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 11: Then there's a real yield that historically has been at

912
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 11: least one point five. Actually it's been higher in general,

913
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 11: but one point five. So add another one point five

914
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 11: on and there's a term premium that's normally around seventy

915
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 11: five basis points. You add all that up, you come

916
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 11: up with four point seventy five. So Larry might well

917
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 11: say to you, Kayley, I'm not sure the bond market's

918
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 11: been all that wacky.

919
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 9: Hm.

920
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 3: How impactful were the Federal minutes on all this, do

921
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 3: you think? Or is that just one element of all

922
00:46:57,960 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 3: the things.

923
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,280
Speaker 11: That played upon Well, it's an interesting question, Billy, because

924
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 11: what you would have studied them close, more closer than

925
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 11: I have. But what I took away from is there's concern,

926
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 11: continued concern about inflation. They may not have gone far

927
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 11: enough yet, but I think that I thought that the

928
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 11: discussion this week shifted a little bit from are they

929
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 11: going to raise again? They may, they may not to

930
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 11: how long are they going to have to stay up

931
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 11: above five? And it's sort of a growing sense that

932
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 11: they're going to has to stay up there for a while,

933
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,919
Speaker 11: as opposed to the markets that for so long we're

934
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 11: pricing in cuts as early as you know, the first

935
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 11: quarter of next year, and that really makes a big

936
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 11: difference as a practice uner in things like equity valuations

937
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 11: because of the discount right, well.

938
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 10: Sure, equity valuations, but also things like I don't know

939
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 10: how much it costs to buy a home, what your

940
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 10: mortgage rate is. I think it's now at the highest

941
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 10: since two thousand and one, which means a first time

942
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 10: home buyer like myself may never become a first time

943
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 10: home buyer unless something changes. But I will digress on

944
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 10: my personal so well.

945
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 11: So I have to jump in there. I have to

946
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 11: reassure you the first house I bought was in nineteen

947
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 11: eighty one, and my mortgage I think was seventeen So

948
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 11: it's all relatively we managed to handles. You can do that,

949
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 11: I think. But by the way, there's another debtor that

950
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 11: we have to think about here. It's not just how

951
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 11: much we pay for mortgages. How much is the federal

952
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 11: government going to have to pay on its debt? Because

953
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 11: I saw a thing actually out of Miam McGinnis's shop,

954
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 11: you know, the Committee for the Responsible Federal Budget today

955
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,280
Speaker 11: that really indicated how much more we're going to owe

956
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 11: if it stays up well above four percent on the tenure.

957
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 10: And David just quickly, we only have about a minute left.

958
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 10: But who else should we be looking forward to? On

959
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 10: Wall Street Week tonight.

960
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 11: Well, we got Steve Ratner on with Larry because we

961
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 11: want to talk to Larry about where the tenure is,

962
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 11: but we want to talk to a real investor who

963
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,439
Speaker 11: invests billions of dollars about what difference it makes whether

964
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 11: it's four point five or three point five. And then

965
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 11: we took a look at activist investing with a filla

966
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 11: named Greg Taxon who has spent his career in that.

967
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 11: And I don't know if you've noticed. I had not

968
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 11: really noticed. It's dropped off substantially, and we wanted to

969
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 11: talk to him what caused that and is it coming back?

970
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 11: What is the dynamics of activist investing?

971
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 10: Awesome? Well, really looking forward to watching that. You can

972
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 10: catch that six pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg TV,

973
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,479
Speaker 10: so don't miss it. David Weston, host of Wall Street Week,

974
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 10: thank you very much for joining us, and thank you

975
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 10: for giving me a little bit more confidence on my

976
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 10: ability to buy a home.

977
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,280
Speaker 11: Something you can do it you can get in the future.

978
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 10: Thank you, David. This is the kind of energy I

979
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,240
Speaker 10: need on a Friday. David Weston joining us. Billy House

980
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 10: also in the house, I'm Kayley Lines. You are listening

981
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 10: to Bloomberg