WEBVTT - Watch Bitcoin's Super Cycle Destroy Old Models | Dan Held 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:01.840 So I love cycles. Like I said, I'm kind of 0:00:01.840 --> 0:00:04.240 working on this big thesis pulling a few different cycles, 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:06.320 and I love them because you can kind of use 0:00:06.320 --> 0:00:09.240 this historical reference to kind of maybe help predict the 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:11.040 future a little bit. And Mark Twins says, it doesn't 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:13.320 repeeve it a rhymes. That's a big value problem of 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.480 bit coin is that there's a limited twenty one million supply. Now, 0:00:16.480 --> 0:00:18.080 there had to be a certain way to issue those 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:22.400 coins until we reach that mark. And what Sotshi came 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.320 up with was an idea where every four years, the 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:28.160 number of newly issued coins per block, every ten minute 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:32.400 approximate block is reduced by half what we're seeing across 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.840 all markets. And I am really the base of economics 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.919 is people rushing to scarce assets. You could almost look 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.200 at this kind of like Radalio's short and long term 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:42.760 debt cycle theory, where he's got these oscillating waves of 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:44.800 short term debt cycles and you've got the long term one. 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.400 I talk so much about how much how many dollars 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:49.879 have been created by the FED, but bitcoins that a 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.040 global reserve asset, and so it really you need to 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:54.000 look at the total amount of global dollar but then 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:57.680 COVID hit and that's like a mega, mega bearish event. 0:00:58.040 --> 0:01:01.240 But that bearish event brings in focus why bitcoin is valuable. 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:03.400 You don't have to trust your government, you don't have 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:06.160 to trust banks. It seemed to kind of actually respond 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.880 like gold did um has done. If we look at 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.640 gold compared to stocks, and like the two thousand eight crash, um, 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:15.160 it takes an initial dip but then immediately rebounds really quickly. 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:18.200 A lot of folks think, oh, it's a store value asset, 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:21.920 it's a risk off asset. It must perfectly be like 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.560 have a perfect, perfect inverse correlation with the markets. Well, 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.720 nothing perfectly does that. It there's there's an evan flow 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.760 to how prices move relative to other asset prices. What 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:35.120 happened in golden bitcoin in March twelve, that was a 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:39.120 liquidity crunch. Uh, investors across the world, we're gonna be 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.160 margin called because a lot of the institutional folks go 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:43.960 a leverage the juice the returns they're getting margin called, 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:46.720 and they were selling anything they could, even safe haven 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:50.960 store value sets assets like golden bitcoin. Hey everyone, welcome 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.000 to another episode of the Market Destructor Show. And today 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:55.480 I am joined by Dan held for a second time. 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:59.160 He's the director of growth Marketing at Cracking. Um. He's 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:01.600 really good at mark keting, but he's also really good 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.720 at forecasting or talking about where some of these kind 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:07.240 of trends that are growing are going. And so M 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:08.920 he's written a bunch of papers. If you haven't seen him, 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.200 you definitely should. Will link to the latest one down below. 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.400 But Dan, thanks so much for joining Mark. Thanks for 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.480 having me excited to jam on a couple different topics today. 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.800 Yeah awesome. So, UM, I know you're the director of 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.919 growth marketing Cracking, but you've also been involved in a 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.800 lot of other roles inside kind of the bitcoin space 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.000 as well. UM, maybe just give us a little bit 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:31.360 of background on, like you know, what you've been working on, 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:34.400 Like how long you've been doing this kind of thing? Sure? Yeah, 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:36.240 so I've been in the crypto space eight years, which 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:39.160 kind of makes me a dinosaur. Yeah, I'm thirty three 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:40.639 years old and I've got gray hairs. I don't know 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.440 if you can see it on my webcam. I've got 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:46.520 some gray hairs coming in. Um, I sort of stumbled 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:48.680 and bubbled my way into tech. I would use this 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:50.440 as a word of encouragement for folks who want to 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:54.000 get into tech. It's definitely possible. UM. I was formerly 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.240 worked on a small investment firm. I built a mobile 0:02:57.240 --> 0:02:58.959 app with my buddy. It was an app that was 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.480 called zero block at real time market data news feeds, 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:03.679 kind of like a block folio equivalent in terms of 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:08.960 functionality and popularity. Back in we got up watching dot com. 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:13.400 From there, tried out different hats of product marketing, growth marketing, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.359 and UM product across a couple of different crypto companies. 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:19.239 I worked at Uber on writer growth and growth marketing team, 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:23.079 so over at HQ. From there, came back to came 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.040 back to Bitcoin crypto, co founded a company we got 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.080 bought by Cracking. At Cracking, I stood up the growth 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.679 marketing team and that's how I'm here today. But yeah, 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:33.760 my my marketing background has been kind of a fun 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:37.200 mix of working and UM different crypto companies, working at 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.120 companies like Uber, and then also my personal brand. So 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.000 it's it's been pretty exciting. Yeah, and yeah, you've you've 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:44.760 been working on your personal brand doing a good job 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:46.560 with that. I've I've been impressed, and I'm a marketing 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.360 guy as well, so that's cool. UM So someone that's 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.720 been around for this long. I mean, you've you've seen 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.560 a lot, right. Uh, it doesn't sound that long, but 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:56.040 it but it is right when you look at the 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.520 time that bitcoin has kind of been here. UM. So 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:02.240 I want to jump right in and hey, guys, let 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:04.680 me just interrupt this interview real quick, just to plug 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.960 the show sponsor, and that is block Fi. Now. Block 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:11.480 five is doing amazing things in the bitcoin finance space. 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:13.400 As a matter of fact, they've cracked some really big 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:16.280 news by bringing on the x c f TC UM 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:19.200 chair Chris gian Carlo Um. And they are one of 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:23.280 the most transparent, most heavily regulated UM companies inside the 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.800 United States, which gives me a lot of trust into 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:28.040 what their services are. Now, I've recently did a video 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.520 talking about how to retire off bitcoin and you can 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:34.920 do that by leveraging debt and interest against bitcoin. And 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:38.400 Block five is the number one company in the United 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:40.520 States or maybe in the world to go to and 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.520 use UM. They are leading the charge their paying interest 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.159 on your bitcoin if you park it with them, or 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:47.400 you can borrow against it. Now, as I broke down 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:50.039 in that video, you can borrow against your bitcoin and 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:52.960 when you take debt against it. It's not taxable. It's 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:54.760 not a taxable event. You can use that debt for 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:56.880 anything that you want, including to live off of, to 0:04:57.040 --> 0:05:00.160 leverage up and buy more, or roll it into another asset. UM. 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:02.240 You can do something like I've done recently, like sell 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:05.240 some real estate put that money into bitcoin. Now as 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:07.760 that bitcoin price has risen, I'm able to borrow against 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:09.800 it and go back and buy the same real estate 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:12.800 or something similar, and I still own the bitcoin, and 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.479 I also own the new asset as well. Lots of 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:17.760 ways you can do this UM. And Block five is 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:20.599 the company that I recommend. Down in the description, I 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.160 have a link that you can click on. If you 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:23.560 choose to use that link, you can earn up the 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.360 two d fifty dollars in bitcoin just for using that link. 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:28.960 So check out block Fine, now let's just start talking 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:32.520 about um kind of the space and talking about the cycles. UM. 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:35.240 So it seems like and I know you've done extensive 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.520 research and writing on these subjects, and so that's why 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.000 I love having you on to talk about this kind 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:42.840 of stuff. But UM, right now, obviously bitcoin has is 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:45.479 in this bowl market cycle. UM, it's it's starting to 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.719 attract a lot of attention right now. Um, but it 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:50.560 seems like there, you know, there are these cycles and 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:52.640 and I'm actually working on the big thesis about all 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:55.240 different types of cycles. But bitcoin has these cycles that 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.320 like seem to operate in four years based off of 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:01.240 having cycles. Um, you want to just explain that for 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:04.520 a little bit. Yeah, So for those unfamiliar, those who 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:07.520 may be new to bitcoin, bitcoin has an issuance curve. 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:10.800 So bitcoin are issued over a certain curve over a 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.719 very long period of time, and bitcoin will be issued 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.600 until we hit a twenty one million hard cap. That's 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.640 a big value prop of bitcoin is that there's a 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:21.320 limited twenty one million supply. Now, there had to be 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.440 a certain way to issue those coins until we reach 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:27.520 that mark. And what Stoshi came up with was an 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.880 idea where every four years, the number of newly issued 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:34.560 coins per block every ten minute approximate block is reduced 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:38.159 by half, and that that happens until it's like an 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:40.600 asum totic curve, until it hits twenty one million at 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:44.400 a very far day in the future. Now, when we 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:48.320 look at bitcoins price in conjunction with these havings, so 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:51.160 the moment in which that reward has dropped, or that 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.120 subsidy duly minted coin is dropped in the block reward. 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:58.080 We see a corresponding bull run occur a year or 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.520 two later, and this is ocurred three times now. So 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:04.839 you could say it's coincidental. You could say it doesn't 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:08.080 predict the future, but certainly it means something because we 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:11.480 see bitcoins boom bus cycle or a big bull run 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:17.880 and then a drop correspond from that. You go having 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:24.840 ten bull run, having bull run, having and now we're 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.960 in the middle of a bull run. So these cycles 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:31.440 are kind of like the micro cycles of bitcoin's economy, um, 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:35.640 and they've largely let a lot of development volume, users interest, 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:37.960 and we're in the middle of one right now. Yeah, 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:40.280 So I love cycles. Like I said, I'm kind of 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.720 working on this big thesis pulling a few different cycles, 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:44.760 and I love them because you can kind of use 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.680 this historical reference to kind of maybe help predict the 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:49.240 future a little bit. You know. Mark Twain says it 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.960 doesn't repeat it at rhymes um. And so if we 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:54.320 look at that, now, three havings is not a lot 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:57.000 of data. I mean, it's not conclusive evidence, but it 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:00.000 is something, right, It's all we have, Um, it looks 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:03.080 cych um that we kind of have. Maybe it peaks 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:06.640 out about eighteen months after the Having cycle. Um, is 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:09.440 that kind of what you've seen through your research. Yeah, 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:13.080 I mean there's a window of time that it typically 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:15.760 peaks within. And there are the last two cycles there 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:17.760 have been a certain amount of you know, they're within 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:19.560 a few months of each other or within a few days. 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:22.560 Actually I forget. I forget how granular it gets. I forget, 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:25.400 you know it Also it depends on do you do. 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:27.720 Do you look at the cycle based on the Having 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:29.680 to the top of the cycle, or do you look 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:32.160 at the bottom like the bear the lowest part of 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.640 the cycle to the top of the Having. And so 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:37.000 I forget which one has which sort of time period. 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.319 But yes, generally a year and a half and a 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:40.880 half and we're looking at the peak of the next 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:43.719 bull run. I think it was May that we had 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.840 the Having, so a year plus that is May add 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.520 add three to six months and we're looking at Q 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:54.839 three Q four. Right. But um, you know, one of 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:56.040 the things I really want to dig in with you 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:58.319 today is that you wrote you wrote a paper talking 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.760 about a supercycle, and so obviously we're having cycles, and 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:04.160 there's three cycles that we've had so far, but you 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.760 have this thesis that there's this super cycle. I like, 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:09.320 I like that word. It sounds sounds pretty dramatic. I 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.520 think a lot of people like that. Um. But I 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.199 guess I guess that's kind of sits on a premise 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:17.199 that maybe this time is different. I've been saying quite 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:18.920 a bit that the world we're going into is not 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:21.520 the one we've come out of, right, the FED, COVID, 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.120 every change everything. But you also kind of agree that 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.800 maybe I think, for your paper, um, that this time 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.079 is different, and maybe this cycle is going to be 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.160 quite a bit different than the last ones. I totally agree. 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.559 I do think this cycle is different. And what's funny 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.480 about data is if you wait till you have all 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.079 the data, then the moment is probably too late. Right, So, 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:41.640 when it comes to investing and when it comes to 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:44.000 product decision making, because I've worked on both products and 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.360 marketing teams, you have to operate with limited information. That's 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:51.360 always the operating environment. You don't have perfect information. So, yes, 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:53.520 we've got a couple havings. We've seen a couple of 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.400 bull runs. Some go, well, we don't. This is you know, 0:09:56.640 --> 0:10:00.679 data science wise, this isn't correlated. I'm like, that's the 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.640 best we've got, and it's pretty good. And certainly there's 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.880 some qualitative reasons because we've got the quantitative side. There's 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:10.760 a qualitative reason why, um, these cycles occur. Now, is 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:14.600 this cycle different than the other cycles? This is where 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:18.000 I coined the term supercycle most people, by the way, 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:19.680 and I'm not even sure if you know this. I 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:23.920 coined that term in during the bear market. UM I 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:26.360 wrote in the Held Report, my weekly news that are 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:31.480 I wrote in December the sort of revisiting of the 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:34.960 um of the supercycle theory. Now in twenty you were 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:36.719 kind of you were back then and you were kind 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.240 of predict predicting that we were going to go into 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:41.839 that at some point. Yeah, And so I think that 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.280 gives it a lot more credence than a lot of 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:45.040 people thinking thinking that I made it up during the 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:46.760 bull run, because it's easy to be bullish in the 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:48.520 bull run. This was in the middle of the bear 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:54.120 market where I basically postulated that what if this cycle, 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:57.760 what if bitcoins microcycle, this four year boom and bus cycle, 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:01.720 what if a boon correspond with a macro bust, a 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.360 macro recession, a macro depression. So macro would be like 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:08.720 the mainstream financial world, your typical they typically have eight 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.040 to ten year cycles. You could almost look at this 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:13.280 kind of like Ray Dalio's short and long term debt 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.880 cycle theory, where he's got these oscillating waves of short 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:17.760 term debt cycles and you've got the long term one. 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:20.839 This is bitcoins equivalent of that. So if you're Raydalio fan, 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.720 I think you'll find this analogy kind of fun um. 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:25.880 And what I hypothesize is if we have a recession 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.240 while bitcoins in a bowl run, that is the make 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.680 magic moment. And Bitcoin was born in the two thousand 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.680 and eight financial crisis as an antidote to poor central 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:37.040 banking policy. But Bitcoin's existence has been in largely a 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:40.800 very very productive bull market. So what happens when people 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.240 start to question the nature of their money and question 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.440 the nature of their government's control over money, then Bitcoin's 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:50.120 value props shines the most. And that's what we have now. COVID, 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.560 I mean I put the COVID. It was a negative event. 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.559 I'm not trying to celebrate COVID. COVID certainly made people 0:11:57.600 --> 0:11:59.439 go wake up and go, wait a second, I'm not 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.360 sure if I can trust my government with my money, 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:03.520 and it just takes that sort of moment. But this 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:07.200 was much more intense than I even hypothesized, because I 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.040 was like, Oh, there'll be a normal recession, we're due 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:13.920 for one. But then COVID hit and that's like a mega, 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.520 mega Barish event. But that Barrish event brings in focus 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.560 why bitcoin is valuable. You don't have to trust your government, 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.880 you don't have to trust banks, and that's where the 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.440 supercycle theory, I think has a largely got a huge 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:30.040 check mark from that event. And there's other check marks 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:31.840 too that we can dig into later, but that one 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:35.000 on a micro macro cycle. I think like we're having 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.680 a Bitcoin bowl run in the midst of a moment 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.400 when everyone comes to realize the value of bitcoin. I 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.439 don't think we're going to see a normal price movement 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:45.480 of We can go into some numbers, some of the 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.280 predictions that you know, I would say an aggregate analyst 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.440 are predicting, Yeah, yeah, I want to dig into that. Well, well, 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.480 we're gonna leave that towards in make sure everybody sticks 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:55.360 around and listen to kind of those numbers of where 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:58.320 we were maybe we're going. But I guess to kind 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.920 of dig into what you said, obviously that makes sense, right, 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.280 people are all of a sudden starting to go, what 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:05.920 the heck is happening to our money? The money sippply 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:08.800 was created the last twelve months, all those things. UM, 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:10.640 So I think I think there was that distrust that 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.240 was like the psychological factor. But then we did have 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.520 six seven trillion dollars dumped into the markets, so we 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:19.400 have we have that as well, So I think it's 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.439 kind of it's getting it from both sides, right, a 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.079 rush of liquidity into the markets. Um. And the other 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:27.480 thing I think is that what we're seeing across all markets, 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.040 and i'm's really the base of economics is people rushing 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.720 to scarce assets. And so we're seeing you know, the 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.400 best beach runner lake from property going up way more 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:40.080 than other properties, for example. And so bitcoin might be 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.920 the most scarce financial asset, and maybe that's one reason 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:47.000 why it's going to more than others. Certainly bitcoin's moment 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.839 to shine as a twenty one million fixed supply comes 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.160 into focus. In this sort of moment, we're seeing other 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.880 scarce assets like gold and real estates start to go 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:57.680 up in price. Two. I'm going to Austin this weekend 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:01.559 of visits of friends, and I've noticed that the apartment 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:04.080 has come back. I'm I'm moving out there in a 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.400 month and a half. Yeah, it's it's already set in stone. 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.800 We're just figuring out where we want to live. I 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.000 did a scouting mission before in terms of checking out 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:14.600 different neighborhoods, but now it's time to go put some 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:16.960 ink on paper and make it happen. So I'm thrilled. 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.680 I'm a Texan. So I've been out in California, in 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:22.880 San Francisco for eight years, working in tech. Still gonna 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:26.920 work in tech. It's time to come home. Um, tax 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.400 wise and personal belief wise. I just feel like I'm 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:33.480 more comfortable out there. Um when it comes to you know, 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:36.040 the what we're seeing is, you know, when we look 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.920 at inflation numbers, and we look at inflation calculations like CPI, 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:42.320 they don't include a lot of metrics or a lot 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:45.680 of prices that are inherent to living. They exclude some 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.000 of these costs, which is ridiculous, Like, for example, they 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:51.200 only include rent, but they don't include the the rise 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.600 in in the average home price. So we're seeing acid 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:58.080 bubbles occur in equities and in real estate, where it's 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.600 very symptomatic of all this money printing. And by the way, 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.040 I looked this metric up recently, it's twenty five trillion 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:08.840 dollars that have been printed globally during COVID by governments 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:13.600 trillion and bitcoins only at a trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:15.920 these are the sort of moments when you just realize 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:19.360 the size and the enormity of the value prop for 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.000 a bitcoin, the the total dress ball market of what 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.640 bitcoin can evolve and grow into in terms of size. Yeah, 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:27.800 that's a great point. You know, I talked so much 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:30.320 about how much how many dollars have been created by 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.560 the FED, but bitcoins are a global reserve asset and 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:35.200 so really you need to look at the total amount 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.640 of global dollars and so that's a that's a great 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:39.640 point you bring up. Now, Um, you did mention that 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:41.560 bitcoin was created, you know, in the two thousand nine 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.080 kind of as a response to two crash um, and 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.840 so it's it's you know, pretty apparent that bitcoin hasn't 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.560 really seen a big bear market, and so you know, 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:51.640 there's always the debate between you know, is it risk on, 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.640 is a risk off? You know, where does that fit? Um? 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.120 But I think that you know, what happened last year 0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.160 and that COVID plunge or whatever you want to call that, 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.360 it seemed to kind of actually respond like gold did 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.200 um has done. If we look at gold compared to stocks, 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.280 and like the two thousand eight crash, UM, it takes 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:12.560 an initial dip but then immediately rebounds really quickly. And Uh, 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:14.640 I think we kind of saw that. Does that kind 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.480 of give you maybe a little bit of taste of 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.960 what we may expect from that in the future. Yeah, 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.520 great question. So a lot of folks think, oh, it's 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:25.360 a store value asset, it's a risk off asset. It 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:29.520 must perfectly be like have a perfect, perfect inverse correlation 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:32.800 with the markets. Well, nothing perfectly does that. There's there's 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:35.000 an ebb and flow to how prices move relat to 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:38.200 other asset prices. What happened in golden bitcoin in March 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:43.520 that was a liquidity crunch. Uh, Investors across the world, 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:45.640 we're getting margin called because a lot of the institutional 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.560 folks go leverage to juice the returns. They're getting margin 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.240 called and they were selling anything they could, even safe 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:55.360 haven store value sets assets like golden bitcoin. So I 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.440 think that um, that moment was a good example of 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.440 a liquidity crunch, not necessarily a lack of confidence in 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:05.200 bitcoin or gold as a global store of value asset. Um, 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:07.520 what's kind of cool about bitcoin is that bitcoin as 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:10.320 referenced by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:13.959 he states that bitcoin is a speculative store of value. 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.840 I think that encapsulates this perfectly. It's inherent properties make 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.840 it a good long term risk off asset, but it's 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:27.560 price volatility is very much a speculation as to its 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.600 future utility of a store of value asset. But what's 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:33.600 funny is that this speculative nature of bitcoin is entirely 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.040 how we heard about it and how it is gains adoption, 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.000 price goes higher. You hear about it, you talk about it, 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.280 you buy it, you tell your friends about it, and 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.440 the loop continues. It's a viral loop. It's essentially a 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:47.680 viral loop baked into bitcoin. And um, you know, when 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.840 we look at this from how does like a money 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:54.280 go from zero? From a white paper and a group 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.280 of nerdy dudes who want to talk about cryptotomy. Hey, 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:00.720 sorry to interrupt this video just one more time. I'm 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.560 not running Google ads, so it's actually way less interruption 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:05.480 than I normally would have on a video. UM, and 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.320 that's because it's sponsored by block five. UM. They are 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:12.080 opening up the world of bitcoin and financial products offering 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.439 to pay you interest on your bitcoin. Um better than 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:17.320 own in a rental property that you have to manage 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:19.000 and control and have the risks. You can just earn 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:21.600 interest on it, or you can leverage against it. Now, 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:25.080 I plan to hold my bitcoin forever and literally never 0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:27.400 sell my bitcoin. So how do you do that? Well, 0:18:27.640 --> 0:18:29.840 if I need money, I don't want to sell that bitcoin. 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:31.960 I'm gonna pay tax on it, all right, I'm gonna 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.280 end up with less and I don't have the bitcoin anymore. 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:36.440 So a better way to do it is to borrow 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:39.480 against the bitcoin. So I've put all my money into bitcoin. 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:41.360 If I want to buy a car, or I want 0:18:41.359 --> 0:18:43.960 to buy a house, I can borrow against it at 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:47.080 very very low competitive rates. Get my house, get my car, 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:50.000 whatever that may be, and get to keep the bitcoin. 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.480 I've done a whole video on this. You can find it. 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:54.480 I'll link it down to the description below. How to 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.000 retire off a bitcoin without paying taxes, and you can 0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.480 do that with block five services. I'll link to the 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:01.000 video game, but though I'm also going to put a 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:02.879