1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:01,840 Speaker 1: So I love cycles. Like I said, I'm kind of 2 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: working on this big thesis pulling a few different cycles, 3 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: and I love them because you can kind of use 4 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: this historical reference to kind of maybe help predict the 5 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 1: future a little bit. And Mark Twins says, it doesn't 6 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: repeeve it a rhymes. That's a big value problem of 7 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: bit coin is that there's a limited twenty one million supply. Now, 8 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 1: there had to be a certain way to issue those 9 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: coins until we reach that mark. And what Sotshi came 10 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: up with was an idea where every four years, the 11 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: number of newly issued coins per block, every ten minute 12 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: approximate block is reduced by half what we're seeing across 13 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 1: all markets. And I am really the base of economics 14 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 1: is people rushing to scarce assets. You could almost look 15 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: at this kind of like Radalio's short and long term 16 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: debt cycle theory, where he's got these oscillating waves of 17 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: short term debt cycles and you've got the long term one. 18 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: I talk so much about how much how many dollars 19 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 1: have been created by the FED, but bitcoins that a 20 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: global reserve asset, and so it really you need to 21 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: look at the total amount of global dollar but then 22 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: COVID hit and that's like a mega, mega bearish event. 23 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: But that bearish event brings in focus why bitcoin is valuable. 24 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: You don't have to trust your government, you don't have 25 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: to trust banks. It seemed to kind of actually respond 26 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: like gold did um has done. If we look at 27 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: gold compared to stocks, and like the two thousand eight crash, um, 28 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: it takes an initial dip but then immediately rebounds really quickly. 29 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: A lot of folks think, oh, it's a store value asset, 30 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: it's a risk off asset. It must perfectly be like 31 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 1: have a perfect, perfect inverse correlation with the markets. Well, 32 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: nothing perfectly does that. It there's there's an evan flow 33 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: to how prices move relative to other asset prices. What 34 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: happened in golden bitcoin in March twelve, that was a 35 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: liquidity crunch. Uh, investors across the world, we're gonna be 36 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: margin called because a lot of the institutional folks go 37 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 1: a leverage the juice the returns they're getting margin called, 38 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: and they were selling anything they could, even safe haven 39 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: store value sets assets like golden bitcoin. Hey everyone, welcome 40 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: to another episode of the Market Destructor Show. And today 41 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: I am joined by Dan held for a second time. 42 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: He's the director of growth Marketing at Cracking. Um. He's 43 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: really good at mark keting, but he's also really good 44 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: at forecasting or talking about where some of these kind 45 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: of trends that are growing are going. And so M 46 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: he's written a bunch of papers. If you haven't seen him, 47 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: you definitely should. Will link to the latest one down below. 48 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: But Dan, thanks so much for joining Mark. Thanks for 49 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: having me excited to jam on a couple different topics today. 50 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: Yeah awesome. So, UM, I know you're the director of 51 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: growth marketing Cracking, but you've also been involved in a 52 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: lot of other roles inside kind of the bitcoin space 53 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: as well. UM, maybe just give us a little bit 54 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: of background on, like you know, what you've been working on, 55 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: Like how long you've been doing this kind of thing? Sure? Yeah, 56 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: so I've been in the crypto space eight years, which 57 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: kind of makes me a dinosaur. Yeah, I'm thirty three 58 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 1: years old and I've got gray hairs. I don't know 59 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: if you can see it on my webcam. I've got 60 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: some gray hairs coming in. Um, I sort of stumbled 61 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 1: and bubbled my way into tech. I would use this 62 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: as a word of encouragement for folks who want to 63 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: get into tech. It's definitely possible. UM. I was formerly 64 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: worked on a small investment firm. I built a mobile 65 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:58,959 Speaker 1: app with my buddy. It was an app that was 66 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: called zero block at real time market data news feeds, 67 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:03,679 Speaker 1: kind of like a block folio equivalent in terms of 68 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: functionality and popularity. Back in we got up watching dot com. 69 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: From there, tried out different hats of product marketing, growth marketing, 70 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: and UM product across a couple of different crypto companies. 71 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 1: I worked at Uber on writer growth and growth marketing team, 72 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 1: so over at HQ. From there, came back to came 73 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: back to Bitcoin crypto, co founded a company we got 74 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: bought by Cracking. At Cracking, I stood up the growth 75 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 1: marketing team and that's how I'm here today. But yeah, 76 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: my my marketing background has been kind of a fun 77 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: mix of working and UM different crypto companies, working at 78 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: companies like Uber, and then also my personal brand. So 79 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: it's it's been pretty exciting. Yeah, and yeah, you've you've 80 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: been working on your personal brand doing a good job 81 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: with that. I've I've been impressed, and I'm a marketing 82 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: guy as well, so that's cool. UM So someone that's 83 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: been around for this long. I mean, you've you've seen 84 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: a lot, right. Uh, it doesn't sound that long, but 85 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: it but it is right when you look at the 86 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: time that bitcoin has kind of been here. UM. So 87 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: I want to jump right in and hey, guys, let 88 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: me just interrupt this interview real quick, just to plug 89 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: the show sponsor, and that is block Fi. Now. Block 90 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: five is doing amazing things in the bitcoin finance space. 91 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, they've cracked some really big 92 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 1: news by bringing on the x c f TC UM 93 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: chair Chris gian Carlo Um. And they are one of 94 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 1: the most transparent, most heavily regulated UM companies inside the 95 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: United States, which gives me a lot of trust into 96 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: what their services are. Now, I've recently did a video 97 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: talking about how to retire off bitcoin and you can 98 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: do that by leveraging debt and interest against bitcoin. And 99 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: Block five is the number one company in the United 100 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: States or maybe in the world to go to and 101 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: use UM. They are leading the charge their paying interest 102 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: on your bitcoin if you park it with them, or 103 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: you can borrow against it. Now, as I broke down 104 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 1: in that video, you can borrow against your bitcoin and 105 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: when you take debt against it. It's not taxable. It's 106 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: not a taxable event. You can use that debt for 107 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: anything that you want, including to live off of, to 108 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: leverage up and buy more, or roll it into another asset. UM. 109 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: You can do something like I've done recently, like sell 110 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: some real estate put that money into bitcoin. Now as 111 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: that bitcoin price has risen, I'm able to borrow against 112 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: it and go back and buy the same real estate 113 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: or something similar, and I still own the bitcoin, and 114 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: I also own the new asset as well. Lots of 115 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: ways you can do this UM. And Block five is 116 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: the company that I recommend. Down in the description, I 117 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 1: have a link that you can click on. If you 118 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: choose to use that link, you can earn up the 119 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 1: two d fifty dollars in bitcoin just for using that link. 120 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: So check out block Fine, now let's just start talking 121 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: about um kind of the space and talking about the cycles. UM. 122 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: So it seems like and I know you've done extensive 123 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: research and writing on these subjects, and so that's why 124 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: I love having you on to talk about this kind 125 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 1: of stuff. But UM, right now, obviously bitcoin has is 126 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 1: in this bowl market cycle. UM, it's it's starting to 127 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 1: attract a lot of attention right now. Um, but it 128 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: seems like there, you know, there are these cycles and 129 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: and I'm actually working on the big thesis about all 130 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: different types of cycles. But bitcoin has these cycles that 131 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: like seem to operate in four years based off of 132 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: having cycles. Um, you want to just explain that for 133 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, So for those unfamiliar, those who 134 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: may be new to bitcoin, bitcoin has an issuance curve. 135 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 1: So bitcoin are issued over a certain curve over a 136 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: very long period of time, and bitcoin will be issued 137 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 1: until we hit a twenty one million hard cap. That's 138 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: a big value prop of bitcoin is that there's a 139 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: limited twenty one million supply. Now, there had to be 140 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: a certain way to issue those coins until we reach 141 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: that mark. And what Stoshi came up with was an 142 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: idea where every four years, the number of newly issued 143 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: coins per block every ten minute approximate block is reduced 144 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 1: by half, and that that happens until it's like an 145 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 1: asum totic curve, until it hits twenty one million at 146 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 1: a very far day in the future. Now, when we 147 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: look at bitcoins price in conjunction with these havings, so 148 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 1: the moment in which that reward has dropped, or that 149 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: subsidy duly minted coin is dropped in the block reward. 150 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: We see a corresponding bull run occur a year or 151 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: two later, and this is ocurred three times now. So 152 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: you could say it's coincidental. You could say it doesn't 153 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: predict the future, but certainly it means something because we 154 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: see bitcoins boom bus cycle or a big bull run 155 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: and then a drop correspond from that. You go having 156 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: ten bull run, having bull run, having and now we're 157 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 1: in the middle of a bull run. So these cycles 158 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: are kind of like the micro cycles of bitcoin's economy, um, 159 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: and they've largely let a lot of development volume, users interest, 160 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: and we're in the middle of one right now. Yeah, 161 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: So I love cycles. Like I said, I'm kind of 162 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: working on this big thesis pulling a few different cycles, 163 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: and I love them because you can kind of use 164 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: this historical reference to kind of maybe help predict the 165 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: future a little bit. You know. Mark Twain says it 166 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: doesn't repeat it at rhymes um. And so if we 167 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: look at that, now, three havings is not a lot 168 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: of data. I mean, it's not conclusive evidence, but it 169 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: is something, right, It's all we have, Um, it looks 170 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: cych um that we kind of have. Maybe it peaks 171 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: out about eighteen months after the Having cycle. Um, is 172 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: that kind of what you've seen through your research. Yeah, 173 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: I mean there's a window of time that it typically 174 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: peaks within. And there are the last two cycles there 175 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: have been a certain amount of you know, they're within 176 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: a few months of each other or within a few days. 177 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: Actually I forget. I forget how granular it gets. I forget, 178 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: you know it Also it depends on do you do. 179 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: Do you look at the cycle based on the Having 180 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: to the top of the cycle, or do you look 181 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: at the bottom like the bear the lowest part of 182 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: the cycle to the top of the Having. And so 183 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: I forget which one has which sort of time period. 184 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 1: But yes, generally a year and a half and a 185 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: half and we're looking at the peak of the next 186 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,719 Speaker 1: bull run. I think it was May that we had 187 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: the Having, so a year plus that is May add 188 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: add three to six months and we're looking at Q 189 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: three Q four. Right. But um, you know, one of 190 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: the things I really want to dig in with you 191 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 1: today is that you wrote you wrote a paper talking 192 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: about a supercycle, and so obviously we're having cycles, and 193 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: there's three cycles that we've had so far, but you 194 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: have this thesis that there's this super cycle. I like, 195 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: I like that word. It sounds sounds pretty dramatic. I 196 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: think a lot of people like that. Um. But I 197 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: guess I guess that's kind of sits on a premise 198 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: that maybe this time is different. I've been saying quite 199 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: a bit that the world we're going into is not 200 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: the one we've come out of, right, the FED, COVID, 201 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: every change everything. But you also kind of agree that 202 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: maybe I think, for your paper, um, that this time 203 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 1: is different, and maybe this cycle is going to be 204 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: quite a bit different than the last ones. I totally agree. 205 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: I do think this cycle is different. And what's funny 206 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: about data is if you wait till you have all 207 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 1: the data, then the moment is probably too late. Right, So, 208 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: when it comes to investing and when it comes to 209 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: product decision making, because I've worked on both products and 210 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: marketing teams, you have to operate with limited information. That's 211 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: always the operating environment. You don't have perfect information. So, yes, 212 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: we've got a couple havings. We've seen a couple of 213 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: bull runs. Some go, well, we don't. This is you know, 214 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 1: data science wise, this isn't correlated. I'm like, that's the 215 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: best we've got, and it's pretty good. And certainly there's 216 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: some qualitative reasons because we've got the quantitative side. There's 217 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: a qualitative reason why, um, these cycles occur. Now, is 218 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: this cycle different than the other cycles? This is where 219 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: I coined the term supercycle most people, by the way, 220 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: and I'm not even sure if you know this. I 221 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: coined that term in during the bear market. UM I 222 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: wrote in the Held Report, my weekly news that are 223 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: I wrote in December the sort of revisiting of the 224 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: um of the supercycle theory. Now in twenty you were 225 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,719 Speaker 1: kind of you were back then and you were kind 226 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: of predict predicting that we were going to go into 227 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 1: that at some point. Yeah, And so I think that 228 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 1: gives it a lot more credence than a lot of 229 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: people thinking thinking that I made it up during the 230 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: bull run, because it's easy to be bullish in the 231 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: bull run. This was in the middle of the bear 232 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: market where I basically postulated that what if this cycle, 233 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: what if bitcoins microcycle, this four year boom and bus cycle, 234 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: what if a boon correspond with a macro bust, a 235 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: macro recession, a macro depression. So macro would be like 236 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: the mainstream financial world, your typical they typically have eight 237 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: to ten year cycles. You could almost look at this 238 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: kind of like Ray Dalio's short and long term debt 239 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: cycle theory, where he's got these oscillating waves of short 240 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 1: term debt cycles and you've got the long term one. 241 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,839 Speaker 1: This is bitcoins equivalent of that. So if you're Raydalio fan, 242 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 1: I think you'll find this analogy kind of fun um. 243 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: And what I hypothesize is if we have a recession 244 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: while bitcoins in a bowl run, that is the make 245 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 1: magic moment. And Bitcoin was born in the two thousand 246 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 1: and eight financial crisis as an antidote to poor central 247 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: banking policy. But Bitcoin's existence has been in largely a 248 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: very very productive bull market. So what happens when people 249 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: start to question the nature of their money and question 250 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: the nature of their government's control over money, then Bitcoin's 251 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: value props shines the most. And that's what we have now. COVID, 252 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: I mean I put the COVID. It was a negative event. 253 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 1: I'm not trying to celebrate COVID. COVID certainly made people 254 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 1: go wake up and go, wait a second, I'm not 255 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: sure if I can trust my government with my money, 256 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: and it just takes that sort of moment. But this 257 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: was much more intense than I even hypothesized, because I 258 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: was like, Oh, there'll be a normal recession, we're due 259 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: for one. But then COVID hit and that's like a mega, 260 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: mega Barish event. But that Barrish event brings in focus 261 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: why bitcoin is valuable. You don't have to trust your government, 262 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: you don't have to trust banks, and that's where the 263 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: supercycle theory, I think has a largely got a huge 264 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: check mark from that event. And there's other check marks 265 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 1: too that we can dig into later, but that one 266 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: on a micro macro cycle. I think like we're having 267 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 1: a Bitcoin bowl run in the midst of a moment 268 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: when everyone comes to realize the value of bitcoin. I 269 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 1: don't think we're going to see a normal price movement 270 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: of We can go into some numbers, some of the 271 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: predictions that you know, I would say an aggregate analyst 272 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: are predicting, Yeah, yeah, I want to dig into that. Well, well, 273 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: we're gonna leave that towards in make sure everybody sticks 274 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: around and listen to kind of those numbers of where 275 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: we were maybe we're going. But I guess to kind 276 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: of dig into what you said, obviously that makes sense, right, 277 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: people are all of a sudden starting to go, what 278 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: the heck is happening to our money? The money sippply 279 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: was created the last twelve months, all those things. UM, 280 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: So I think I think there was that distrust that 281 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: was like the psychological factor. But then we did have 282 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: six seven trillion dollars dumped into the markets, so we 283 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: have we have that as well, So I think it's 284 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,439 Speaker 1: kind of it's getting it from both sides, right, a 285 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: rush of liquidity into the markets. Um. And the other 286 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 1: thing I think is that what we're seeing across all markets, 287 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: and i'm's really the base of economics is people rushing 288 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: to scarce assets. And so we're seeing you know, the 289 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: best beach runner lake from property going up way more 290 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 1: than other properties, for example. And so bitcoin might be 291 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: the most scarce financial asset, and maybe that's one reason 292 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: why it's going to more than others. Certainly bitcoin's moment 293 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 1: to shine as a twenty one million fixed supply comes 294 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: into focus. In this sort of moment, we're seeing other 295 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: scarce assets like gold and real estates start to go 296 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 1: up in price. Two. I'm going to Austin this weekend 297 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 1: of visits of friends, and I've noticed that the apartment 298 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: has come back. I'm I'm moving out there in a 299 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: month and a half. Yeah, it's it's already set in stone. 300 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: We're just figuring out where we want to live. I 301 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: did a scouting mission before in terms of checking out 302 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: different neighborhoods, but now it's time to go put some 303 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: ink on paper and make it happen. So I'm thrilled. 304 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: I'm a Texan. So I've been out in California, in 305 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: San Francisco for eight years, working in tech. Still gonna 306 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: work in tech. It's time to come home. Um, tax 307 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: wise and personal belief wise. I just feel like I'm 308 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: more comfortable out there. Um when it comes to you know, 309 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: the what we're seeing is, you know, when we look 310 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: at inflation numbers, and we look at inflation calculations like CPI, 311 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: they don't include a lot of metrics or a lot 312 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: of prices that are inherent to living. They exclude some 313 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 1: of these costs, which is ridiculous, Like, for example, they 314 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: only include rent, but they don't include the the rise 315 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: in in the average home price. So we're seeing acid 316 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: bubbles occur in equities and in real estate, where it's 317 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: very symptomatic of all this money printing. And by the way, 318 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: I looked this metric up recently, it's twenty five trillion 319 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: dollars that have been printed globally during COVID by governments 320 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: trillion and bitcoins only at a trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, 321 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: these are the sort of moments when you just realize 322 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: the size and the enormity of the value prop for 323 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: a bitcoin, the the total dress ball market of what 324 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: bitcoin can evolve and grow into in terms of size. Yeah, 325 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: that's a great point. You know, I talked so much 326 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: about how much how many dollars have been created by 327 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: the FED, but bitcoins are a global reserve asset and 328 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: so really you need to look at the total amount 329 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: of global dollars and so that's a that's a great 330 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: point you bring up. Now, Um, you did mention that 331 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin was created, you know, in the two thousand nine 332 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 1: kind of as a response to two crash um, and 333 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: so it's it's you know, pretty apparent that bitcoin hasn't 334 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: really seen a big bear market, and so you know, 335 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: there's always the debate between you know, is it risk on, 336 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: is a risk off? You know, where does that fit? Um? 337 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: But I think that you know, what happened last year 338 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: and that COVID plunge or whatever you want to call that, 339 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: it seemed to kind of actually respond like gold did 340 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: um has done. If we look at gold compared to stocks, 341 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: and like the two thousand eight crash, UM, it takes 342 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: an initial dip but then immediately rebounds really quickly. And Uh, 343 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: I think we kind of saw that. Does that kind 344 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: of give you maybe a little bit of taste of 345 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: what we may expect from that in the future. Yeah, 346 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: great question. So a lot of folks think, oh, it's 347 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: a store value asset, it's a risk off asset. It 348 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: must perfectly be like have a perfect, perfect inverse correlation 349 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: with the markets. Well, nothing perfectly does that. There's there's 350 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: an ebb and flow to how prices move relat to 351 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: other asset prices. What happened in golden bitcoin in March 352 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: that was a liquidity crunch. Uh, Investors across the world, 353 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: we're getting margin called because a lot of the institutional 354 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: folks go leverage to juice the returns. They're getting margin 355 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: called and they were selling anything they could, even safe 356 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: haven store value sets assets like golden bitcoin. So I 357 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: think that um, that moment was a good example of 358 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: a liquidity crunch, not necessarily a lack of confidence in 359 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: bitcoin or gold as a global store of value asset. Um, 360 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: what's kind of cool about bitcoin is that bitcoin as 361 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: referenced by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 362 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,959 Speaker 1: he states that bitcoin is a speculative store of value. 363 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: I think that encapsulates this perfectly. It's inherent properties make 364 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: it a good long term risk off asset, but it's 365 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: price volatility is very much a speculation as to its 366 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 1: future utility of a store of value asset. But what's 367 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: funny is that this speculative nature of bitcoin is entirely 368 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: how we heard about it and how it is gains adoption, 369 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: price goes higher. You hear about it, you talk about it, 370 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: you buy it, you tell your friends about it, and 371 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 1: the loop continues. It's a viral loop. It's essentially a 372 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 1: viral loop baked into bitcoin. And um, you know, when 373 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: we look at this from how does like a money 374 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: go from zero? From a white paper and a group 375 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: of nerdy dudes who want to talk about cryptotomy. Hey, 376 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 1: sorry to interrupt this video just one more time. I'm 377 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: not running Google ads, so it's actually way less interruption 378 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: than I normally would have on a video. UM, and 379 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: that's because it's sponsored by block five. UM. They are 380 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: opening up the world of bitcoin and financial products offering 381 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 1: to pay you interest on your bitcoin. Um better than 382 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: own in a rental property that you have to manage 383 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: and control and have the risks. You can just earn 384 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: interest on it, or you can leverage against it. Now, 385 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: I plan to hold my bitcoin forever and literally never 386 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: sell my bitcoin. So how do you do that? Well, 387 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: if I need money, I don't want to sell that bitcoin. 388 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: I'm gonna pay tax on it, all right, I'm gonna 389 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: end up with less and I don't have the bitcoin anymore. 390 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: So a better way to do it is to borrow 391 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: against the bitcoin. So I've put all my money into bitcoin. 392 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,360 Speaker 1: If I want to buy a car, or I want 393 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: to buy a house, I can borrow against it at 394 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: very very low competitive rates. Get my house, get my car, 395 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: whatever that may be, and get to keep the bitcoin. 396 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: I've done a whole video on this. You can find it. 397 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: I'll link it down to the description below. How to 398 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: retire off a bitcoin without paying taxes, and you can 399 00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: do that with block five services. I'll link to the 400 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: video game, but though I'm also going to put a 401 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: link to block fire. If you choose to click on 402 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: that link to check them out, you can earn up 403 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 1: to two in free bitcoin just for using that link. 404 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: And that's it. Let's go ahead and get back to 405 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 1: the interview biography. How does it go from that to 406 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: the mainstream? And bitcoin has done this through these speculative cycles. 407 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: I don't use the word speculative and a negative connotation. 408 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 1: It's simply people discovering discovering bitcoin to discovering why it's valuable. 409 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: Some stick around it because they realized the value. Some 410 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: just came in to speculate. Um. But yeah, with this, 411 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 1: you know, Bitcoin I think is increasingly being recognized as 412 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: a goal two point oh. And this was a checkmark 413 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: for the supercycle theory. In no one recognized bitcoin is 414 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: gold two point other than us, other than us, other 415 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: than our our group of believers. All the institutions though 416 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: you've got, You've got investment banks, hedge funds, and hedge 417 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: fund managers who are legends. Tesla micro Strategy either putting 418 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: bitcoin on their balance sheet. These are gigantic check marks 419 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: for like a supercycle theory. Now again, I'm not saying 420 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 1: it's likely to happen. I'm saying it could happen. You know, 421 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,199 Speaker 1: big bitcoin moves in mysterious ways. Who knows how what 422 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: the future holds. I can't predict the future. I'm just 423 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: describing a potential outcome that no one was describing at 424 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 1: the time, because I think this time might be different. 425 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean we're seeing every institution across the 426 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: world say bitcoin is gold two point Oh, I've waited 427 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 1: eight years to see this moment. This is not like 428 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: the other cycles, the other cycles where we were considered 429 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: bitcoin is considered a very risky investment that only retail 430 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 1: traders get into. No, you've got like giant investment banks 431 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: going oh yeah, Bitcoin's like gold. Yeah, this is huge. 432 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: This is a huge moment, a huge moment for a bitcoin. Yeah. 433 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: I think, um, you know, obviously we don't we don't 434 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: know the future. But looking at cycles and understand how 435 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: technology rolls out, and I'll understand all these different things 436 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 1: that gives you different perspectives and so um, I always 437 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 1: like take like the macro view because, UM, I think 438 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 1: it's easier to kind of see the future, the long 439 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: term future than the short term future. And when you 440 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: see these actions being taken, as you said, by these institutions, 441 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: you know where that leads to eventually. But before we 442 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: get into that, I want to I do want to 443 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,479 Speaker 1: talk about, um, how the makeup of the people in 444 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 1: the space has changed and what that means for the future, 445 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: because I think that really builds into that super psychle 446 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 1: But before we do that, UM, having you know, someone 447 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: like you that's been in Silicon Valley for this long, UM, 448 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: it's it's interesting and I'm curious your perspective on this 449 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: because you mentioned Jerome Power calling it like a store value. 450 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: I think China came out like last week and said 451 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: it's like a store of value. I mean, we're seeing 452 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: that from these even City Bank and JP have been 453 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: coming out and kind of saying these things. But yet 454 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: we still have all these other people like, uh, you know, 455 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 1: whether it's Mark Cuban or we have you know, seemingly 456 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: very smart technology driven people. Um tally recently came out 457 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 1: the same thing is that it's it's not a currency, 458 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: it's not a store value. It's too speculative, and it 459 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: seems that like they've completely forgotten that technology has to evolve, 460 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: Like just because it's not something today doesn't mean it's 461 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 1: not going to be something in the future. So, as 462 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: a Silicon Valley kind of tech guy, what's your thought 463 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: on that? Yeah, there's a couple of things here. One 464 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 1: to address the val Tildy question, where a lot of 465 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: people are just kind of put off by that, Like, 466 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 1: how did you think how did you think any major, 467 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 1: gigantic valuable company ever got that big right? It wasn't 468 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: a nice, perfect linear function from zero dollar market share 469 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: to like a one dollar markets or two dollar markets, 470 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: you know, it was like these ebbs and flows of 471 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: investor interest and execution. Bitcoin in a similar function, does that, 472 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: you know a silicon value though it's been a little 473 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 1: bit disappointing. Silicon Valley tech people inherently don't get bitcoin 474 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 1: their first inclination. And I wrote about this too because 475 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 1: it was a very rare thing and a bunch of 476 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: folks agreed with me too, which at first I wrote 477 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: this and I didn't. I was like, man, I'm I 478 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: gonna put myself out here and are people are gonna 479 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,160 Speaker 1: be like cool? Dan, that's a nice opinion. A bunch 480 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,360 Speaker 1: of people in tech who are in a bitcoin came 481 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: out and they were like, this is exactly how the 482 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 1: system works. Silicon Valley has two primary uh function to 483 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: primary players vcs, so venture capital or people who fund 484 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: startups and startups. Vcs are constantly looking at what's next, 485 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 1: whatever is hot they want to pile in on. They 486 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: don't care, and most of them aren't subject matter experts. 487 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: They can't be experts on every single sector. So they 488 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 1: either outsourced that bringing people, or they just choose a theme. 489 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: They're thematic. It's a thematic investment into a R v R, drones, bitcoin, 490 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: chat bots, you name it. And what happens is you 491 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: go deploy capital and the vcs, no one out of 492 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: a hundred make it. So they just look for whatever 493 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: is hot, super hot, and and they put in capital there. 494 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 1: It was one of the most disappointing things to find 495 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 1: out ever about Silicon Valley. Venture capitalists are not risk tickers. 496 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: Risk tickers at all. They claim to be, but they're not. Yeah, 497 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 1: so what happens is they will never go against the 498 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: grain versus all the other vcs. There's top it's like 499 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: a top four VC couple of VC firms, they choose 500 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: what's hot. And if they don't choose what's hot, what 501 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: happens is that the LPs, so the investors in your fund, 502 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: they go, well, why aren't you talking about this other 503 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: subject that they're talking about. Why are you investing in 504 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: something else? That's not the common narrative, And it's very 505 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: counterintuitive because you would expect vcs to be into contrary 506 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: and investments. That's the whole point, right. What happens is 507 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: that they're beholding to the LP still and the LPs 508 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: will give them a lot of uh, you know, they'll 509 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 1: they give them a lot of ship if they don't 510 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,959 Speaker 1: get into these like more thematic plays that are endorsed 511 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: by the hot hot vcs. There's also a joke, you know, 512 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,359 Speaker 1: if you get into there's the hot vcs, and if 513 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: you can get in with them, it's kind of like 514 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 1: the same no one ever got fired for buying an IBM. Well, 515 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: no one ever got fired for investing alongside a six, right, 516 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: so the same. So that was kind of a big element. 517 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: And I'll weave this all together at a big point 518 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: here pretty quick. So that's a big element that they're 519 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: not contrarian, and that they're largely chase narratives, and the 520 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: narratives evan flow very quickly. Like does anyone anyone talk 521 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: to talk about chatbots? Yeah? Remember that whole trend for 522 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: a while, super hot or a r v R. I'm 523 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: not wearing an air headset and I'm a gamer, like 524 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: and I've got a high. Do you think it's also though, 525 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: because like, um, why the medical industry won't embrace CBD, 526 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: you know, or you know, cannabis right because they it's natural. 527 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: They can't own it. There's no money to be made there, 528 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 1: so they want to they want to create their own 529 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: version of uh, you know, a synthetic version of it. 530 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,880 Speaker 1: They can patent, is it something maybe like that where 531 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 1: you know vcs they can't make any money off bitcoin, 532 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: so they want to create the next all cooin kind 533 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,400 Speaker 1: of thing. Yeah, that's certainly an element. I think part 534 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: of this as well is like um, VCS prescribed the 535 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 1: narrative to bitcoin that like, oh, bitcoin is good to 536 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: disrupt PayPal. Vcs don't even grock the idea of like 537 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: disrupting governments, and that is that is next level, like 538 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: next level revolutionary, and how do you make money? Off that. 539 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 1: You know, they can't really go pitch their LPs. Hey, 540 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 1: I bought bitcoin. It is hoddled. You need to be 541 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 1: an active investor, actively investing in companies. And what's interesting 542 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: is that hoddling Bitcoin will likely outperform any company that 543 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: you invest in the crypto space. So it certainly has. 544 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: It certainly has even coin based I think it's maybe 545 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: on par like the best performing startup in crypto. I 546 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: think like if you look at Series A check or 547 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 1: seed check to I p O, bitcoin is still outperforms, 548 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: which is wild, which is nuts, and your risk is 549 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,280 Speaker 1: far lower with bitcoin. So yeah, one they can't make 550 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: they can't make money off of it. To the themes 551 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 1: have ebbed and flowed and they don't really rock Bitcoin's corps, 552 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: Like how do you make money on Like I want 553 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,199 Speaker 1: to disrupt the government, Like they can't go pitch their 554 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: LPs like you. By the way, bitcoin is gonna disrupt 555 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: central banking and make all the banks ops lead. Also 556 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 1: it's gonna remove power of government to do all these things. 557 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: These the LPs, I think they're nuts. So they latched 558 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 1: on the narratives like cheap PayPal replacing visa replacing master card, 559 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,679 Speaker 1: which were totally incongruent with why bitcoin is valuable. And 560 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,639 Speaker 1: then you also have like dats decentralized dat platforms, but 561 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: you could own the token, so you do. The vcs 562 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 1: could eventually take their little cut, right, so the ebbs 563 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 1: and flows of the space, the vcs latch onto whatever 564 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: narratives are hot, um and so bitcoin's narrative. Bitcoin is 565 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 1: old and boring and that's why I don't like it. 566 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 1: And then you've got the operators. So when you're an operator, 567 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 1: you constantly have to ship and build. So cracking is 568 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: constantly building new apps, new sorry, new functionality to go 569 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 1: execute and compete against coin base. If we don't execute, 570 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: then coin based well, and we're gonna be left in 571 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: the dust. So you have to constantly iterate. That's tech, 572 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 1: that's tech mindset. With money, you don't want to tinker 573 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: with it all the time. Bitcoin needs to stay ossified. 574 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 1: It needs to be slow moving and eventually become ossified 575 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 1: because that ensures that trust can be built around this 576 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 1: open this open network, this open framework versus a weather app. 577 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 1: You need to keep pushing a new update to it 578 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 1: to make sure that people find it relevant and useful. Um. 579 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,119 Speaker 1: So for money, it's the opposite. You don't want to 580 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: touch it a lot. And that's where they don't like bitcoin, 581 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 1: but they like ethereum because ethereum is constantly tinkered with, 582 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 1: and tech builders are tinkerers. They want to tinker with everything. 583 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,200 Speaker 1: They want to tinker with the monetary policy, they want 584 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: to tinker with like block time, they want to tinker 585 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: with proof of workers at prove mistake. Constantly tinkering and 586 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: tinkering and tinkering, and the idea that a product could 587 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,360 Speaker 1: be perfect or a a protocol could be perfect is unfathomable. 588 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 1: They're like, no way, they're they're they're like, that's that's impossible. 589 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 1: There's no way that the first try you got it right. 590 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 1: They don't. You don't You don't see them going and 591 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: tinkering with the t c P i P, you know, 592 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 1: Internet protocol Um. They're tinkering with all the things that 593 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: are built on top of that. So maybe that's also 594 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,239 Speaker 1: an evolution thing. So over time they're gonna, Okay, well 595 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: accept this protocol and we'll just tinker with what's on 596 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: top of it. Totally exactly. That big one is like 597 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,960 Speaker 1: a t c P i P. You don't tinker with that. However, 598 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: most younger developers weren't even around back when TCP, t 599 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 1: c P I P was was talked about in debated 600 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 1: versus other protocols. So I mean, actually, I think if 601 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: you're around then you're probably pretty old. Like if you 602 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: were in your thirties and forties when they were discussing 603 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 1: that might be so old that you're not on social right. 604 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 1: So like there's a whole generation of kind of lost 605 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: context there. But there's been some really cool folks on 606 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: in the big points space. We've pulled out old debates 607 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: and old I think there was one that was kind 608 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: of like a joke, like a joke comic book about 609 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: how many protocols they were thinking of doing. They were 610 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 1: thinking of doing protocols for every type of application back then, 611 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 1: and instead they just came up with t c P 612 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 1: I p UM. There's more nuance of this and a 613 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 1: lot more to dig get on in a lot of 614 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 1: context I'm leaving out. But yeah, essentially you've got a 615 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: bunch of like more like front end front end devs 616 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 1: who are building they're building io s apps and web apps, 617 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: and they're like, oh, I want to tinker with stuff, 618 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 1: you know, They don't think about the implications of like 619 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 1: the protocol level, which is like, this is a huge responsibility. 620 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: This isn't your fucking weather. App Like, if you mess 621 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: up something, you've got the entire world's financial system building 622 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: being built on this. This isn't it's not going to 623 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: break and you can just fix it, you know, like 624 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: if you break it, you might lose trust for forever. 625 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 1: And almost no engineers in the world, a very few 626 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 1: operating that premise maybe like aircraft aircraft, software engineers or 627 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 1: you know, they have to think about crazy up time 628 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 1: to ensure that everything, like a plane doesn't crash with 629 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 1: people on it. Type of engineers the right wants to 630 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 1: think about protocol design. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's some good context. 631 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 1: Thanks for sharing that. Let's say, let's pivot into back 632 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: to this this supercycle. So um I think you know, 633 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 1: and if you were around in seventeen, it was like, 634 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 1: obviously it's like retail fomo. All the individuals are coming 635 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: in and that that's interesting in itself how it was 636 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 1: the kind of the first time that retail had come 637 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 1: to technology before the institutions and funds um But at 638 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 1: the same time we were talking all the institutions are 639 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: gonna come. They're gonna come. But now we've seen a 640 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: completely different type of buyer, and I think that really 641 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 1: feeds into what you're calling this supercycle. Absolutely. Yeah. The 642 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 1: market before was retail retails, individual like Mark and I 643 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 1: who were not we're not professional. I don't know if 644 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 1: market is or not, but you know we we don't 645 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 1: want run hedge funds, um and and so the institutions 646 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: had largely stayed out of bitcoin, and in seen where like, 647 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: the institutions are coming, the herd is coming. It was 648 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,280 Speaker 1: a little too early. Now the herd is here. The 649 00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: herd is storming through the house. We can hear the herd, 650 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: we can smell the herd. The herd is here, and um, 651 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 1: this represents a huge moment for bitcoin, not just because 652 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 1: the institutions, and I'll get to the second part in 653 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 1: your second it's the institutions bring about large amounts of 654 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 1: capital which gets deployed in a bitcoin. They bring around 655 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: large amounts of stability in terms of infrastructure, but the 656 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: legitimacy factor I think a lot of bitcoiners are underestimating. Look, guys, 657 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 1: I'm a libertarian. I'm a libertarian freedom fighter to like 658 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: corporations buying bitcoin is not a bad thing. They can't 659 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: do anything if they buy bitcoin. They can't change the protocol, 660 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: they can't change the governance. We still control bitcoin. But 661 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: they're opting into our free world. This is a great moment. 662 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 1: These institutions are opting into a world that we designed 663 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 1: of permission less nature. Um, they're not going to change bitcoin, 664 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: it's not possible given how bitcoins architected and we are 665 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 1: the resilient core, and that won't happen. But what the 666 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 1: bitcoiners don't realize is that by institutions buying bitcoin, now 667 00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,360 Speaker 1: more retail will buy bitcoin. Because retail it looks to 668 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,840 Speaker 1: institutions for legitimacy. You know, they're not libertarian like us. 669 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 1: They don't question the nature of the reality. So when 670 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: these trusted institutions like banks by bitcoin, then they buy. 671 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 1: So now we're hitting that moment and that stride in 672 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: the market. These institutions are buying bitcoin, and retail goes 673 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 1: wait a second. These institutions are the smart people that 674 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 1: I trust. They started to buy bitcoin, and so that's 675 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 1: why this could all feed into a supercycle where we've 676 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 1: never had that before. We've had a very small retail segment, 677 00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,239 Speaker 1: a retail segment that was very risk on. They were 678 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 1: willing to reject institutional buy in, reject government buy in. 679 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 1: And now we're starting to get that, which I think 680 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 1: increases the legitimacy of bitcoin in the eyes of the 681 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 1: retail trader. Yeah, so the retail trader, I mean, they 682 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 1: came in chasing pumps. So you know, at the end 683 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,040 Speaker 1: of seventeen, their their friends said, oh, I just turned 684 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 1: five thousand and twenty, so they jumped in. But as 685 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 1: soon as it started going down, they didn't understand why 686 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: they bought. They just thought they were going to make 687 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:53,959 Speaker 1: it rich overnight. As soon as you started going down, 688 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 1: they sold. So that not only did it push it 689 00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 1: up faster, but it also brought it back down faster. 690 00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 1: That's why the volatility is always the most at the top. 691 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 1: But then, as you're kind of explaining, now, with these 692 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 1: institutional investors, you have like not Warm Buffet, but like 693 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 1: Warm Buffet's own Coca Cola since like the sixties, like 694 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: they buy things like Forever and so um. You just 695 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 1: have a different makeup of the person there um, And 696 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 1: so they're not quickly that they understand why they're buying. 697 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 1: They're not buying to make twenty grand and if it 698 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 1: automn if it starts dropping, they don't automatically sell out. 699 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 1: So I guess that kind of changes that volatility kind 700 00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 1: of curve for that sharp ratio totally. Yeah, definitely changes 701 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: the volatility structure. I think bitcoin is still gonna be volatile, 702 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 1: quite volatile compared to other currencies and other assets for 703 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: some time, but it certainly changes the the the holdler mix, 704 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: the mix of individuals buying bitcoin, and I do think 705 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 1: most institutions will skew towards a longer hoddle period than 706 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 1: a retail trader. Retail traders typically fomo in because their 707 00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: buddy told them about it, and then they're not very convicted, 708 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: you know, the nor are they managing people's money to 709 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 1: where it like a hedge fund manager or fund can 710 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 1: hold onto it for a longer duration and they have 711 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,680 Speaker 1: an investment thesis um And they were like, sure, we'll 712 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 1: wait five years, and the vcs holder their investment for 713 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 1: five to ten years UM. Now, headpunds are the same 714 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 1: thing as vcs, but in a similar vein there can 715 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,120 Speaker 1: they have a can they have a conviction in this 716 00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,800 Speaker 1: trade and they're gonna go with this investment thesis and 717 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 1: they're gonna go do it. I was a retail trader 718 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 1: wakes up and they had two cups of coffee and 719 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 1: they bought bitcoin, and three days later they're drunk with 720 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 1: every buddies at the bar and they panic sell. You know, 721 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 1: so they're quite a different dynamic. The other thing I 722 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 1: would say is that you know, kind of like what 723 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 1: you were saying about the vcs, where nobody wants to 724 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:30,920 Speaker 1: be the first guy, and then they all want to 725 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 1: jump onto the trend. I think that we also see 726 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,839 Speaker 1: the same thing with the funds and institutions as well, 727 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 1: where nobody wants to be the first guy. But once 728 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 1: the first guy buys a little bitcoin and they outperform, 729 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 1: then everybody else has to jump in, and then that 730 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 1: kind of becomes this self fulfilling prophecy. More people jump in, 731 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 1: they outperform. More people jump in, they outperform um. And 732 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 1: we see that now I know, we've got to kind 733 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 1: of start wrapping this up, so maybe we can just 734 00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 1: kind of move along, um where this cycle takes us 735 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 1: and kind of what you're thinking now, Michael Sailor said 736 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,640 Speaker 1: that like all models are broken at this point, which 737 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,360 Speaker 1: you know might be true. You're kind of saying the 738 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,520 Speaker 1: same thing right this time is different or whatever. Um 739 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,799 Speaker 1: we've heard. You know, Cathy would from ARC said that 740 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 1: she she thinks that SMP five companies should put ten 741 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,960 Speaker 1: percent of their treasury in it, and if they did that, 742 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 1: it puts it to five hundred thousand dollars a coin. 743 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: Seems pretty logical, Michael Saylor. You know she's just going 744 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 1: to three hundred chillion, and and there's there's reason behind that. 745 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 1: But in this cycle, kind of what are you what 746 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 1: are you thinking or seeing? Yeah, so, I mean if 747 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,880 Speaker 1: we talked, if we look at historical cycles and project 748 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 1: the future, we would see between a hundred and three 749 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 1: three hundred thousand dollars a bitcoin. This is also what 750 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:38,240 Speaker 1: a lot of analysts are predicting based on on chain data, etcetera. Typically, 751 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,160 Speaker 1: if everyone's guessing the same thing, it's probably not going 752 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 1: to be that. It's probably not what's going to happen. Um. 753 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:44,960 Speaker 1: So that's that's kind of how what's to define is 754 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 1: like the classic outcome here, the supercycle outcome would be 755 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 1: anything above like three d thousand up to like a million. Think, well, 756 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,919 Speaker 1: there's no limit to it, but I think anything past 757 00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,879 Speaker 1: a million would be insane. Even people think about crazy 758 00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 1: to even say a million or half a million, But 759 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 1: I think anything around there the half a million to 760 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 1: a million dollar range would be in like super cycle territory. 761 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,319 Speaker 1: Um I'd say, like entering that is a cycle that 762 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:10,400 Speaker 1: was predicted to be much smaller but was bigger than expected. 763 00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 1: Or it could be a normal cycle and there's no 764 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,319 Speaker 1: bear market or a limited bear market, so it goes 765 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 1: to two hundred dollars bitcoin and only drops to two 766 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 1: and stays flat to the next bowl run something like that. 767 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 1: You know, something that's very atypical, so basically doesn't break 768 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 1: the pattern, does it break the mold. I think we've 769 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,360 Speaker 1: got all the elements that show that this time is different. 770 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:36,319 Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. I'm happy either way. Bitcoin doesn't change. 771 00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 1: Either way, bitcoin doesn't fail or succeed. Bitcoin would even 772 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 1: succeed in these lower bound scenarios of a hundred thousand 773 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,040 Speaker 1: and three thousand supercycle is just what I think could 774 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 1: happen if the whole world wakes up to bitcoin at 775 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,440 Speaker 1: the same time, and certainly the price isn't going to 776 00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,279 Speaker 1: be the same, it should be much higher. Than what 777 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,840 Speaker 1: we expect or have a less intense bear market. Yeah, 778 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 1: and and as you said, all the catalyst is there. 779 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 1: We have you know, the pandemic and an unlimited money printing. Um, 780 00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,440 Speaker 1: we have this younger generation. If you look at some 781 00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 1: cycles like the fourth turning, we have rapid change is 782 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,719 Speaker 1: going to be happening in this decade. Um. You know, 783 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 1: all these things are kind of lining up so it 784 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 1: could happen. So UM, I know we got to wrap 785 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 1: it up, but you left us with a lot of thoughts, 786 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,399 Speaker 1: so hopefully everybody enjoys that. Anything you want to say 787 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 1: closing it out, well, Mark, thanks for having me on. 788 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: Really appreciate it. Um. If you want to follow me, 789 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,080 Speaker 1: check out my Twitter account at Dan held That's where 790 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 1: I post all my thoughts. Um. Yeah, but thanks for 791 00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:28,400 Speaker 1: having me Mark. Yeah, we'll go ahead and linked to 792 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,720 Speaker 1: your Twitter and your news letter down below for everybody 793 00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,400 Speaker 1: and without we'll wrap it up. Thanks so much, Dan 794 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:33,320 Speaker 1: sures