1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdusky. I 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: want to thank you all for joining me again. Please 3 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: like and subscribe to this podcast. It really means a lot, 4 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:11,639 Speaker 1: and if you give me a five star review, that's 5 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: extra special. In the twenty nineteen movie Uncut Gems, Adam 6 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: Sandler's character Howard Rattner exclaims, I made a risk, you gamble, 7 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 1: and it's about to pay off for a lot of Americans. 8 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: That's a lot of the last month has been when 9 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: March Madness happened, it was about gambling, specifically online sports gambling, 10 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: and that's what I want to talk about during this episode. 11 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: According to the CBS News, three billion dollars in wages 12 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: were placed in the last few weeks on the NCAA tournament. 13 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 1: Online sports scambling has become a revolutionized industry in the 14 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: last half decades since the Supreme Court declared that the 15 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act of nineteen ninety two, otherwise 16 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: known as PASSPA, was unconstitutional. Signed by former President George HW. Bush, 17 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: PASPA effectively outlawed sports gambling by corporations in most parts 18 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: of the country, with the exceptions of four states Nevada, Delaware, 19 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: Oregon and Massachusetts. Since the twenty eighteen decision by the 20 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: Supreme Court, thirty United States have legalized sports gambling, which 21 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: is Alabama, Alaska, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, 22 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: and Utah being the last holdouts of the sports gambling industry. 23 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: With the market open and a majority of the country, 24 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: thirty five different companies now operate sports gambling, like FanDuel 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: Caesars Drafting. Those are the largest and their primary target 26 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 1: are young men drawn to the industry. Well, how big 27 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,479 Speaker 1: is the industry? In twenty twenty four, more than one 28 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion dollars in bets were wager that's 29 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: just in one year. That's larger than the GDP of Mississippi. 30 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: Players are not only able to wager on games, but 31 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: individual plays, leagues, individual players. This easy access to sports 32 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: gambling on one's phone has led to a rise in 33 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: gambling addiction, debt, and customers who are increasingly getting younger 34 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: and younger when they start placing bets. A twenty twenty 35 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: three survey from the NCAA found that fifty eight percent 36 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: of eighteen to twenty two year olds placed at least 37 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: one online sports bet. In the last decade, that number 38 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: increased to seventy percent. For college kids living on campuses. 39 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: Those young gamblers lose on average ten to three hundred 40 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: dollars per day. If they did that every day, that 41 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: means that sports gambling could be easily a larger part 42 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: of their budget than their food, their rent, their social life. 43 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: In three years since online sports gambling became legal in 44 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 1: New Jersey, the number of people calling the state's gambling 45 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: help hotline has tripled, with the largest demographic coming from 46 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: Man between the ages of twenty five and thirty four. 47 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: This is not you know, your average gambler. This is 48 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: not somebody who in old man who would bring you 49 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: to the race streets at the racetrack, my grandpa, the 50 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: Usperman racetrack. But bring you know, bring some money from 51 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: the social Security check to the racetrack and bet on 52 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: the ponies, or go to the casino and hit some slots. 53 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: These are young men who are increasingly becoming addicted to 54 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: the lore that you can become wealthy just by betting 55 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: from your phone. One gambling addiction counselor noted that her 56 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: youngest client was a fifteen year old boy who spent 57 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 1: nearly nine hundred thousand dollars on FanDuel using his parents' 58 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: credit card and grandparents' Social Security checks while making bets 59 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: at school. A lot of state governments are also making 60 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: a lot of money, and they're hoping to make more 61 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: using online sports gambling taxes. In twenty twenty, three states 62 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: collected nearly one point eight billion dollars in tax revenue 63 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: from sports gambling, but it's not evenly divided across all 64 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: thirty nine states. New York raked in the most with 65 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: eight hundred million dollars in a single year, while South 66 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: Dakota only made one hundred thousand dollars. But all this 67 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: money is really worth it for the states, bankruptcies have 68 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: exploded that legalized online sports gambling. One study had that 69 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: the number increased for twenty five to thirty percent in 70 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: three to four years after the state legalized the industry. 71 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: Young Men in low income areas are increasingly at risk, 72 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: with a noted decline in their credit score of point 73 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: five percent and debt collections up eight percent. The whole 74 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: industry becomes even more sinister in nature when you realize 75 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: that certain companies really just run monopolies in their respected states. 76 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 1: Take the state of Florida. In twenty twenty one, Florida 77 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: offered an exclusive sports gambling license to the Seminole Indian Tribe, 78 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: and in return, the tribe had to agree to pay 79 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: two point five billion dollars over the first five years, 80 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: with revenue sharing continued until the agreement expires in twenty 81 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: fifty one. After a prolonged court battle, they open up 82 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: in November twenty twenty three and the tribe man operating 83 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 1: deal with hard Rock Digital. Other companies like FanDuel and 84 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: Sports can try to make their way into the industry 85 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 1: in the state, but to no avail. Their only avenue 86 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: is to work in partnership with hard Rock. In just 87 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: the first forty five days after hard Rock has a 88 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: monopoly in the state went live, addiction to hotline calls 89 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: increased by one hundred and thirty eight percent. With convenience 90 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: of mobile apps, individuals can place any time, anywhere, any place, 91 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: and the companies know it because they monitor you. Is 92 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 1: essentially a data company. They sit there and they know 93 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: when you're most likely to bet, what advertisements make you 94 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: want to bet more, and methods to keep you hooked 95 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 1: using AI to make gambling more addictive and luring end 96 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: users at younger ages with greater frequency, because essentially, these 97 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: data companies are in the business of creating addicts. A 98 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: study from the Southern Methodist University monitored seven hundred thousand 99 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 1: online sports betters and found that less than five percent 100 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: actually withdrew money from their betting apps, you know, anything, 101 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: more than they deposit it. That five percent won more 102 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: than one hundred million dollars, which was covered by the 103 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: best place by eighty percent of betters. The bottom three 104 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: percent of betters made up all the money for the 105 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: profit they live off. Of the bottom three the people 106 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: who are the most addicted, the most degenerative gamblers. They 107 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: those industries prey on them to make money. That's how 108 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: they sit there, and they actually draw, you know, profits 109 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 1: from these things. And these are people who will go 110 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 1: into debt. These are people who will steal from friends 111 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: and families. If their addiction gets worth, they will sit 112 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: there and mortgage their house and steal from their kids' 113 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: college fund. This has all been happening over the last 114 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: seven years. If you're one of these winners, people who 115 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 1: do exceedly well online sports gambling companies are allowed to 116 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 1: limit the amount of money you can gamble with. They 117 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: limit their losses and your gains. And while many states 118 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: force online sports betting companies to dissuade attics, most targeted 119 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: advertisements and notifications directly encourage people to gamble frequently. I 120 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 1: quoted the movie Uncut Gems the top of the show, 121 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: and a film about a jeweler who is addictioned to 122 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:14,799 Speaker 1: gambling and the rush it gives him ultimately puts himself 123 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: in a situation that costs his life. Millions of Americans 124 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: are putting themselves in a financially precarry situation at a 125 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 1: very very young age, and state governments are giving them 126 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: the green light in the name of tax dollars. You're 127 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdosky. We'll 128 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: be right back. My guest this week is Charles van Lehman. 129 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: He is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and overall 130 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 1: a very smart guy. Charles, thank you for being here. 131 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 2: Absolutely happy to be here, so, Charles. 132 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: In September twenty four you wrote an article for The 133 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: Atlantic saying that online sports gambling not only was bad, 134 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 1: but probably should be abolished. How did you come to 135 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: that opinion. That's a very different opinion. 136 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 2: I know. Well, there are a couple of different answers there. 137 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 2: One answer is that I am more gung co about 138 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 2: prohibiting things than many other people are, and I can 139 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 2: explain why. But the more approximate relevant answer is I 140 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 2: looked at the social science on what has happened with 141 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 2: online sports gambling since it was legalized essentially nationwide in 142 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, and I concluded it's been basically all downside 143 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 2: and very little upside. It's important to note for the 144 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 2: benefit of the audience that you know, back in the 145 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 2: dystopian age of twenty seventeen, sports gambling online sports gambling 146 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: was essentially legal nationwide. There were like a couple of 147 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 2: carveouts thanks to this law from the nineteen nineties called 148 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 2: the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act PASPA, which basically which 149 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: prohibited sports gambling because at the time, members of Congress, 150 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: all the major sports leagues, everybody sort of agreed sports 151 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 2: gambling was going to corrupt the game, it was going 152 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 2: to be a huge issue. Fast forward to twenty eighteen, 153 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 2: NC double A and New Jersey are in a lawsuit. 154 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: Although they basically are colluding at this point for whether 155 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:10,239 Speaker 2: or not this story yeah, yeah, whether or not laws 156 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 2: constitutional Supreme Court says no, it's not. The door is 157 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 2: open for sports gambling legalization. Over the ensuing six seven years, 158 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 2: sports gambling is legalized. I think the figure is now 159 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: forty out of fifty states have leader sports gambling. Yeah, 160 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 2: thirty nine plus DC I always get them. Yeah, and 161 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 2: Missouri there are There are ballot initiatives and legislative action 162 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 2: all the time. I've been asked to comment on both 163 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 2: Hawaii and Minnesota's efforts to legalize in recent weeks. So 164 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: it's going to continue to move because of the way 165 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:47,479 Speaker 2: that sports gambling rolled out across different states at different times. 166 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 2: You can empirically and I can get how this works, 167 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 2: but you can get a really good idea of what 168 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 2: the effects of sports scambling are. You can pretty effectively 169 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 2: overcome the correlation causation problem and say with a strong 170 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 2: certainty what happens when you legalize sports gambling. And so 171 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 2: there are a couple of research papers that basically look 172 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 2: at really big groups of people, really groups of consumers 173 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 2: in states that haven't have not legalized sports gambling. Point 174 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 2: active legalization and all of the effects are like pretty 175 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 2: remarkably bad. You see large increases in de delinquency, large 176 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: increases in risk of bankruptcy or bankruptcy rises twenty to 177 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 2: thirty percent against a small baseline, but still. One of 178 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: my favorite figures is that for every dollar that people 179 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 2: spend on sports gambling, they end up forgoing two dollars 180 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,199 Speaker 2: in investment, so like two dollars that don't go into 181 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 2: your Schwab account or whatever. And all of those harms 182 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 2: concentrate among the most precarious households. So the households that 183 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 2: have a history of bankruptcy, their bankruptcy risk goes up, 184 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: have a history of overdrawing their account, the risk goes up, 185 00:09:58,440 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: and particularly. 186 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: Who are not typically good with money to begin with, 187 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 1: become worse. 188 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, precisely. Again, you see this in particular among 189 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: young men in poor counties. That's really where the effects 190 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 2: ends of concentrating. And so you get this picture of like, 191 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 2: do you know sports gamblers? 192 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: My brother gambles on sports, but like I think like 193 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: very little, but I don't follow any sports, so I 194 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 1: don't know. I'm not I am the worst person to 195 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: talk about sports on period, but like I kind of know, 196 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: but I would never. I don't have any interest. 197 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 2: I don't know. 198 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: To me, going to a craps table is the only 199 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: fun game because it's a communal game. Everything else is 200 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: like antisocial in a certain way and just not as fun. 201 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 2: If you ask around, you know somebody who knows somebody 202 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 2: who's thousands of dollars tens of thousands of dollars in 203 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 2: the hole on a sports scambling app right now, And 204 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 2: that guy is probably young, almost certainly male, probably not 205 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,959 Speaker 2: particularly skilled, probably particularly highly educated, really cannot be afford 206 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 2: to be that deep in debt. We're pretty sure that 207 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 2: those people's lives have gotten a lot worse by virtue 208 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 2: legal lations sports. Yeah. 209 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: I saw this one interview with this one debt gambling counselor, 210 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 1: and she said her youngest gambling client or a gambling 211 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: adic client, was fifteen years old and had spent nine 212 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars basically taking his grandma's social Security and 213 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: his parents' credit card their knowledge, and just like over 214 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: the course of several years, nine hundred thousand dollars at 215 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: fifteen years old. 216 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 2: What is so? 217 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: The the goal for states is they're constantly told more 218 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 1: tax revenue, more tax revenue, what I've read is that 219 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: there is a huge difference in what states are making 220 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: a lot of money for tax revenue and what states 221 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: are making. Me a little like South Dakota's making one 222 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars a year for tax revenue, New york'sick 223 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: eight making eight hundred million dollars. Is the is it 224 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: worth it to these states? Like, is the financial cost 225 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: from the deprivation of social capital from the increase in bankruptcies? 226 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: Is that worth one hundred thousand dollars in South Dakota? 227 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 2: I mean, no, it's my answer. You know, I think 228 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 2: the important thing there is that like that's going to 229 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 2: be a function of demand. Taxation is like you know, 230 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 2: how big is the market is it's just a percentage 231 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 2: of the transaction, and so the more transactions, the more 232 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 2: tax revenue. So yeah, I mean, like, if you add 233 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 2: up all the sports gambling revenue in a given quarter, 234 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,839 Speaker 2: New York ends up being I forget what the exact 235 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:27,599 Speaker 2: fraction is, but it's somewhere between a quarter and a 236 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 2: half of all of the revenue. But like, objectively speaking, 237 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 2: even in New York, you're not getting that much money 238 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 2: if you think about it as a fraction of total 239 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 2: government outlays. It's consistently under one percent across states. I 240 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 2: think Indiana, it's like one percent of all their revenue 241 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 2: comes to sports scampling. You get less out of sports 242 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 2: scambling then you get from alcohol taxes, tobacco taxes, from 243 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 2: marijuana taxes, all those things. 244 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: Now, scambling is not like the equivalent of like o 245 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 1: zembic is to like the Netherlands or Denmark. 246 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, to Denmark. No, it's and this is like always true. 247 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 2: Taxing sin is not a great way to generate revenue. 248 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 2: Is a good rule of thumb, Like you just you 249 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 2: don't get a lot of money out of it, partially 250 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,840 Speaker 2: because the goal of syn taxes is mostly to deter 251 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 2: the behavior, not to generate revenue. Like ultimately, unfortunately, you 252 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: get the most revenue out of taxing productive activities like 253 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 2: generating income or being a business or owning a home. 254 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, so how much does because what everything I've 255 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: done research on AI seems to play a very important 256 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: part of the online sports gambling industry because it is 257 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: built to learn when you're most likely to make a bet, 258 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: how to make you more addictive, what things appeal to you. 259 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: Has I mean, AI is always has been around, obviously 260 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen, but it's become much more advanced in 261 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: the last seven years. How much has that played a 262 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 1: part into the growing addiction. 263 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: I mean tremendously. And I would talk more broadly about 264 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 2: the category of machine learning, because you know some machine 265 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 2: many AI things and machine learning things. This doesn't really 266 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 2: matter for purposes of the conversation. But yeah, you know, 267 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 2: when you interact with an app, whether it's a sports 268 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 2: gambling app or a social media app, that app is 269 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 2: collecting information about you, it's collecting information about everybody else 270 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: who's using the app too, And then you apply machine 271 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 2: learning algorithms to all of that data and you can 272 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: start to recognize patterns in the space of gambling. And 273 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,359 Speaker 2: this is true before legalization. This is true in casinos 274 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 2: for example. This is true of like slot machines. Gambling 275 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 2: follows an eighty twenty law. Twenty percent of your users 276 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 2: are in the generally eighty percent of your revenue. It's 277 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 2: actually like probably more than that, like more concern to that. 278 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 2: It's probably like three to five percent of your users 279 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 2: are doing ninety percent of your revenue. By some estimates, 280 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 2: I think it's five percent of fifty and ten percent 281 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 2: is closer to ninety And so you can pick those 282 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 2: guys out and then you can say, when does he gamble? 283 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 2: Does he do it at night? Can I send him 284 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 2: a prompt to reinforce him at night? What is the 285 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 2: line that I can offer him to bet a little 286 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 2: bit more? And you can do this all automatically. It's 287 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: very straightforward from a machine learning perspective, because all it 288 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 2: is is pattern recognition. But this gets, by the way, 289 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,479 Speaker 2: to a deeper point about like my argument for prohibition 290 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: as opposed to sort of regulation, which is that capitalism 291 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 2: is great. I like capitalism. Capitalism is about the efficient 292 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 2: alignment of the interests of buyers and sellers. And when 293 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: that the things that the buyer wants are good for him, 294 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 2: that's great. When the thing that the buyer wants room 295 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 2: are bad for him and he compulsively consumes them because 296 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 2: he's addicted to them, that's not great. And in that 297 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 2: situation you end up applying free market innovation to the 298 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 2: problem of getting people to like ruin their lives. I've 299 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 2: called this the iron law of liberalization. It's like when 300 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 2: you liberalize goods, when you liberalize advice goods, the market 301 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 2: applies its innovative capacity to it, and you end up 302 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 2: with a much more potent, much more sellable product. Basically, 303 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 2: whether it is marijuana, whether it is gambling, whether it 304 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: is mushrooms, you see the same trend. 305 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: So how much if banning is not possible because a 306 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: lot of says don't want to ban it, they've just 307 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: been legalizing it, how much can we trust the industry 308 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: to regulate. 309 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 2: Itself as a historical matter by analysis other industries, not 310 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: at all. The industry will sort of come out. I mean, 311 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 2: the industry's line is basically we want self opt out, 312 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 2: and I'm like, that's great, but what is actually it 313 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 2: means I can put my hand up and say, don't 314 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 2: let me gamble anymore. It's like, so you know, I 315 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 2: can put myself on a list, and it's like that's great, 316 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 2: but actually not very helpful for somebody who's in active addiction, 317 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 2: because like addiction is reinforcing. Like you know, my friend 318 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 2: Keith Humphries is a Stanford addiction specialist, likes to say 319 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: addiction is a chronic disease, but it's not a chronic 320 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 2: disease like like you know, MS or whatever, because you 321 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 2: in sometimes enjoy having it, that's why you're addicted to it. 322 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 2: So people are not going to opt themselves out. And 323 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 2: the reality is you look at vice industries, they are 324 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 2: they have every rational interest in encouraging people to do 325 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 2: bad things like I, you know, I think that's bad, 326 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 2: but ultimately just sort of very predictable. This is true 327 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: for big tobacco, This is true for the sales for pornography, 328 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 2: for the seals in marijuana. Like the market interest, the 329 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: market interest encourages the bad behavior because that's how you 330 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 2: end up making a profit. And so you know, from 331 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 2: a regulatory perspective, two things are true. One is I 332 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 2: don't really think the industry is going to regulate itself. 333 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 2: Two is that any efficacious regulation is going to be 334 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 2: something that the industry fights tooth and nail, because you're 335 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 2: going to end up sort of taking out that like 336 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 2: ability to target the ten to twenty percent that makes 337 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 2: up all of their profit. 338 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: Right, And I read in sports gambling it's like the 339 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: bottom three percent of losers pay some substantially higher amount 340 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 1: of the entire industry, Like they depend on the most 341 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: degenerative gamblers who are so deeply addictive, who like you know, 342 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: cash their house out to sit there and gamble. It 343 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: is they can't function as an industry without the deeply 344 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: addictive right. 345 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 2: You call those, you call those whales, And this is 346 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 2: the again, this is the law across all addictive goods. 347 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 2: Is that, like, you know, the way to think about 348 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 2: it is, I don't know how often your brother bets, 349 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 2: but let's say he bets on the game every Sunday. 350 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 2: If you have a guy who's placing I don't know, 351 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 2: ten bets a day, then he's doing seven hundred bets 352 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 2: a week, which means that he is generating more revenue 353 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 2: than your brother, brother, and six hundred and ninety eight 354 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 2: other people who bet only once a week. That's how 355 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,479 Speaker 2: you end up with that, like preatodynamic, But if you 356 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 2: can find the guy who bets ten times a day, 357 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 2: he is worth way more effort than identifying the six 358 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 2: hundred and ninety nine other people because he will give 359 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 2: you exponentially more revenue. So like, yeah, it's it's just 360 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 2: that's how the math ends up working out. Is that 361 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 2: guy dominates. He dominates as a term in the equation. 362 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: And there's nothing that they can like, they don't have 363 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: to sit there and say, here's what I make a year, 364 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 1: So I make one hundred thousand dollars a year or whatever, 365 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: I can't possibly give you a million dollars. Like, there's 366 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 1: nothing that this I mean this. 367 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:20,120 Speaker 2: This gets to the regulatory problem, right, because there are 368 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 2: there are regulatory proposals that suggest things like deposit limits 369 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 2: or having some third party confirmation that this person is 370 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 2: able to put money down, or saying people can only 371 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 2: put down a debit card, they can't put down a 372 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 2: credit card. But like the industry will fight this tooth 373 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 2: and nail because that's where all their money comes from, right, 374 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 2: And the industry in many senses has a head start 375 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 2: on all of this. You may remember the big sports 376 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 2: books Draft Draft King's FanDuel existed prior to twenty eighteen. 377 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 2: They were doing this sort of like gray area, like 378 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,959 Speaker 2: fantasy sports. You could, you know, build of fancy sports. Like. 379 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,360 Speaker 2: The entire reason for that was to establish an infrastructure 380 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 2: so that that once sports gambling became legal, they were 381 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 2: in a position to dominate the marketplace. 382 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 1: And they have essential monopolies in certain states. Yeah, every 383 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 1: single not every and not everyone has a license in 384 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: every single state because of it. Earlier in the podcast, 385 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: why is this so pervasive among young men. 386 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 2: That's a great question, and I think there are lots 387 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 2: of different levels on which one could answer it, and 388 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 2: you can think about it very abstractly, as you know. 389 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 2: One answer that I like is it's just that, you know, 390 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 2: there is this sense of hustle culture among young men 391 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 2: that like, the way to make it is to get 392 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 2: rich quick, and gambling offers a way to get rich quick. 393 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 2: But at a deeper level, it's just because young men 394 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 2: are stupid, Like and we've been young men. I've been 395 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 2: there exactly, I know exactly what it's like. Young Men 396 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 2: are highly impulsive, they're prone to showing off. They like 397 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 2: they they have a much higher risk tolerance than they're 398 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 2: sex same age peers or their same sex higher age peers. 399 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 2: Like you did stupid stuff when you were a young. 400 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: Man from two or seventeen twenty two. I was probably 401 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: clinically insane. They probably could have locked me up because 402 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: absolutely absolutely right. 403 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 2: And can you imagine if somebody been like, here's a phone, 404 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,160 Speaker 2: you can bet thousands and thousands of dollars, and hey, 405 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 2: you could make it big, like terrible idea. 406 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, and that I had like one hundred dollars credit 407 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 1: Lindo when I was like saying eighteen years old, I. 408 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 2: Think about this a lot. If you look at if 409 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 2: you look at trends in uh fireworks associated deaths every year, 410 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 2: there's like big spikes on exactly the days that you 411 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 2: would expect. It's July fourth, one hundred firework deaths. But like, 412 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 2: if you look into the data, it's all young man, 413 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 2: it's just like dudes doing stupid stuff with fireworks and 414 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 2: let me launch. 415 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: One off my ass or like or whatever. 416 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah, and if you could monetize that stupidity, like 417 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 2: you'd make a lot of money. And in some senses, 418 00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 2: sports gambling is monetizing that stupidity. 419 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: What how would ban work? 420 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 2: Like? 421 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 1: How is it just pull the licensing from it? Or 422 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: I mean it's because it's not legal for a nationwide 423 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 1: sports gambling. It's only legal in states. So would a 424 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: state just pull the licensing? How would that work if 425 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: they wanted to ban it? 426 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 2: Yeah? So, and I want to back it up a 427 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 2: little bit to talk about the logic because I think again, 428 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 2: just to be very clear, between the early nineteen nineties 429 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 2: and twenty eighteen, this was the status quote you could 430 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 2: not legally specifically you could not legally run a sports 431 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 2: gambling concern. States and private companies could not operate a 432 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 2: sports gambling business for profit or for state revenue. You 433 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 2: and I could have made a bet that would have 434 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 2: been completely legal. That would have been fine. 435 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 1: It's like we could have done the Super Bowl. 436 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. Yeah. So the issue is that commercial interests 437 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 2: or state interests cannot participate in that exchange. They can't 438 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 2: try to profit off of that exchange. That's a really 439 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 2: easy thing to prohibit because particularly large companies have a 440 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 2: very strong and incentive to follow the law because otherwise 441 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 2: they get hosed. It's really bad for your profit if 442 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 2: you don't follow the law. The federal government will come after. 443 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 1: You write that down. 444 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, oka recommend sorongly recommend following law. No, but so 445 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 2: like so, like, all you have to do at a 446 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 2: state level is just say this is not worth it. 447 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,400 Speaker 2: You have to win the political battle, which is really hard. 448 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 2: But then all you do is you say we're going 449 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 2: to march the number of licenses down to zero over 450 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:27,680 Speaker 2: the next five years, and we're going to be a law, 451 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 2: and then it's done. Like you can have cross state 452 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 2: you know, some cross state issues like people will go, 453 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 2: I touch to somebody who would like stand in the 454 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: corner of his apartment in New York so he could 455 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 2: gamble in New Jersey. People will use VPNs, but you'll 456 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 2: substantially reduce the level of usage. And we know this 457 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 2: because that's what it was like in twenty seventeen. And 458 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 2: also theoretically do things at the federal level. Part of 459 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 2: the issue with the pass as it was overturned is 460 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 2: that is the specific state carve outs. I think there's 461 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 2: an open question of if you could have a nationwide, 462 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 2: across the board ban on sports gambling, because there is 463 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,880 Speaker 2: you know, there is some nexus to interstate commerce basically 464 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 2: anytime you use the Internet. So like the FEDS probably 465 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 2: have the capacity to ban it writ large, but there's 466 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 2: an open question there. 467 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much for being on this podcast. 468 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: You are so smart on this and many other topics. 469 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: How can people read more of your stuff? Where could 470 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: they go? How can they find you? 471 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:33,239 Speaker 2: Absolutely? I'm over on X Formally on Twitter, I'm at 472 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 2: Charles F. Lehmann L e hm An you can also 473 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 2: find me. I'm on substack. I'm at the Causal c 474 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 2: A U S A L Fallacy, which nobody can ever find. 475 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 2: It's really self defeating. I can explain it. It's like 476 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 2: a wonky reference. And then I'm also I'm at City Journal, 477 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 2: which is the flagship publication of the Manhattanants Too, where 478 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 2: we publish lots of good things every week citydask journal 479 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 2: dot org. 480 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 1: Most of your stuff. It's really really good City Journal. 481 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: So thank you so much being on this podcast. 482 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 2: I really appreciate it absolutely thanks having me on. 483 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to It's The Numbers Game with Ryan Gardowski. 484 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 1: We'll be right back after this message. Now is the 485 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 1: time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show, 486 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 1: where you get to ask me any question quite literally 487 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 1: about anything. If you want to be part of the topic, 488 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 1: please email me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. 489 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 1: That's Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. It's a 490 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,920 Speaker 1: plural numbers and maybe I'll be talking about your question 491 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: next week. This question came from a listener named Julie. 492 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: She said, Ryan, do you miss DNN. 493 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 2: No? 494 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: I miss when I watched clips online because I don't 495 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 1: really watch it on TV. When I watch it online 496 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: and I see someone making an ass nine statement in 497 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: common and you want to scream the television and I 498 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: wish I was there to sit there and debate them. 499 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: That's really the only part I miss. I miss the 500 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: makeup and hair people. They were really nice. But I 501 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 1: don't miss being on cable News. You know, I never 502 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,440 Speaker 1: worked for them. It wasn't like I lost the paycheck. 503 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,199 Speaker 1: You do it for free. Is that they're kind of 504 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: promote yourself and your ideas, and I thought I made 505 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: pretty smart ones. But whatever I mean. Actually, it's so funny. 506 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: I saw ed Martin the other day and he said 507 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 1: he's also been from Scena, and he said, we need 508 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: to start a club that we can all get together 509 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 1: with and hang out about it. But I don't miss 510 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: cable News. I don't miss seeing him, particularly because I 511 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 1: don't think that you get all that much enjoyment out 512 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:22,919 Speaker 1: of just screaming at another person during the course of 513 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 1: an hour long show or even fifteen minutes. It was 514 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 1: great while last and then yeah, that's that anyway. Thank 515 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,439 Speaker 1: you so much for listening this week. I hope you 516 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: listen back later on this week for the second episode, 517 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 1: where it will be wonderful. I think we're gonna have 518 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 1: our guests and culter to talk about judges, So please 519 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 1: like and subscribe to this podcast on iHeartRadio, app, Apple Podcasts, 520 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,480 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. See you later this week.