1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. It was time for the long awaited, 2 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: overdue celebration to comments back. 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 2: Get back goes to win, not just to go. 4 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: All right, here we go. 5 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 3: Throwing in Joe spect I'm saying it's a catch touchdown. 6 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 7 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 1: go to win. 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 3: That's incredible. 9 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabaki. 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: You want to pull. 12 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, 13 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: presented by bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. 14 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 3: We have made it. 15 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: It is time for Super. 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 4: Bowl fifty eight Best bets. Yes, that is the episode 17 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 4: you are tuned into. I'm your host, Brendan glass Sheen. 18 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 4: We've got a panel of analysts, Anthony Dubundo, Jill Gallant, 19 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 4: the touchdown Better and Grant Me for his specialty all 20 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 4: year has been player props. 21 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 2: We are with you to break down Super Bowl fifty. 22 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 4: Eight between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 23 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 4: forty nine ers. You can find the video version of 24 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 4: the podcast if you haven't done so already, on the 25 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 4: Action Network YouTube page. Once you hit subscribe, give this 26 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 4: video alike and then you'll be plugged into all of 27 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 4: our content for the rest of the week leading up 28 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 4: to the big game. We appreciate on the audio side, 29 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 4: of course, that's our priority. Five star ratings and reviews 30 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 4: on Apple Spotify wherever you listen. 31 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: You can find Anthony, Jill. 32 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 4: And Grant individually in the free to download award winning 33 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 4: Action Network app. 34 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 2: Where they put their bets out each end every day. 35 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 4: And you can also find a link to our Action 36 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 4: Network Discord channel the Discord server in the episode description 37 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 4: audio video wherever you're watching or listening if you want 38 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 4: to hop in chat it up with the experts leading 39 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 4: up to the game. 40 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: We are recording on. 41 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 4: A Wednesday afternoon leading into Super Bowl weekend, February seventh, 42 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 4: plus two. They're getting a ton of the bets in 43 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 4: the handle total still sits at forty seven and a 44 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 4: half moneyline bets all on Kansas City at plus one 45 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: ten at bet MGM A three and three conference championship weekend. 46 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 4: All in all show is fifteen games over five hundred. 47 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 4: You three have been a big part of that touchdown 48 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 4: bets player props to Bundo on his packers more specifically, 49 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 4: So there. 50 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 2: We go, let's dive in. We will go to du 51 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: Bundo first. Each of these guys have two best bets 52 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 2: for Super Bowl fifty eight. To Bundo, you may go first, 53 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 2: what do you have for us? 54 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 1: Happy Super Bowl? Everybody? Let's go with Harrison Butcker over 55 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: one and a half field goals made at minus one twenty. 56 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 1: And this really comes down to the fact that I 57 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 1: think that San Francisco has real defensive issues and it's 58 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: been well documented over the last couple of weeks. If 59 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 1: you go into their underline numbers against the run, They've 60 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: had some real problems all season, really, especially you know, 61 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: the second half. And I do think the Chiefs will 62 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 1: have some success moving the ball, but we've seen time 63 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 1: and time again and this Kansas City offense kind of 64 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: get bogged down on the red zone and Andy Reid 65 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: is not particularly aggressive on fourth downs, and I think 66 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: that's the big key. When you look at the numbers 67 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: this year for the season overall fourth down aggressiveness, the 68 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: Chiefs are in the bottom eight in how much they 69 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,119 Speaker 1: go for it on fourth down. They settle for field 70 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: goals a lot, and that's another reason why their red 71 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: zone touchdown percentage is all the way down at nineteenth 72 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: in the league. This year San Francisco's defense, as much 73 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 1: as it struggled, they're in actually in the bottom eight 74 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: now in yards per drive allowed. So I do think 75 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: like I said, the Chiefs will move the ball in 76 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 1: this game against a nine ers defense that has some holes. 77 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: But when they get down into the red zone and 78 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers can stack the box a little 79 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: bit more, which they don't really do a normal downs 80 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, other parts of the field, they can try 81 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: to stop the run that way, and they're one of 82 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: the best short passing defenses and over the middle passing 83 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: defenses in the league. So I think the Niners will 84 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: have success in slowing down Kansas City once they get 85 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: inside you know, the thirty twenty yard line, and if 86 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: it's fourth and three, fourth and four, a spot where 87 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: Andy Reid probably should go for it. Given his quarterback, 88 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: We're going to see them kick field goals, something Dan 89 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: Campbell did not do and can Well made the right move. 90 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: I don't know that Andy right Reid will here, so 91 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: I think Read will settle for field goals. He has 92 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: reliable kicker and Butcker so minus one twenty over one 93 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: and a half. Chiefs have also been excellent in the 94 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: last two minute drills. It's an area where the forty 95 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: nine ers have struggled defensively as well, so I think 96 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: that you could get one maybe before the half as well. 97 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: So over one and a half minus one twenty for 98 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: Butcker field goals. It's one of my hairite props for 99 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty eight. 100 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 4: Noticed you worked in that. Dan Campbell made the right move, 101 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 4: but they lost the game. But we won't go there. 102 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: It's been too soon for my lions devastating. Okay, all right, 103 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: should be it should be us in the Super Bowl. 104 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 2: You worked your opinion in there as well as your pick. 105 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 4: Good job always, Jill Galant touchdown better You're going there 106 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 4: and correct me if I'm wrong before you reveal the pick. 107 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure you did this last year too in. 108 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: The Super Bowl. 109 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 3: Okay, so go ahead. All right. 110 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 5: So this bet is a Travis Kelcey touchdown, but I'm 111 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 5: not going to be taking it as an any time touchdown. 112 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 5: That's around even odds, maybe even minus odds at most books. 113 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 5: I think if you're going to bet Travis Kelcey for 114 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 5: a touchdown, you need to bet first Chiefs touchdown. That's 115 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 5: around plus three to thirty. So yeah, I did take 116 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 5: this exact bet last year. It was around plus three 117 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 5: to thirty and it paid off in the second quarter. 118 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 5: And Kelsey just has a playoff pedigree that I can't 119 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 5: overlook anymore, seventeen touchdowns on the last fifteen playoff games 120 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 5: since twenty nineteen. He's also scored the first Chiefs touchdown 121 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 5: in five of their last seven playoff games. Now, this 122 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 5: Niners defense been fairly strong, but when you look at 123 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 5: the tight ends they've faced all year, they haven't really 124 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 5: faced a ton of good tight ends. When they did, 125 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,600 Speaker 5: those guys really got their numbers. Like Sam Laporta had 126 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 5: nine catches for almost one hundred yards, Trey McBride had 127 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 5: ten catches for one hundred yards. TJ Hankinson had eleven 128 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 5: catches for almost one hundred yards. So tight ends can 129 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 5: move the ball on this defense. And Kelsey, of all 130 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 5: the tight ends that I've just mentioned, he's pretty much 131 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 5: matchup proof in my opinion. Also, for example, last two weeks, 132 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 5: the Chiefs of face defenses that were pretty strong against 133 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 5: tight ends, both the Bills and Ravens. They had only 134 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 5: allowed six touchdowns combined to tight ends all year. Travis 135 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 5: Kelcey finished with sixteen catches and three touchdowns on both 136 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 5: of those defenses, and scored first touchdown for the Chiefs 137 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 5: in both of those games. So, especially in the first 138 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 5: touchdown score market, especially in the Super Bowl, I'd like 139 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 5: to have just a little bit of insurance, especially since 140 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 5: the Niners they've scored the first touchdown in thirteen of 141 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 5: nineteen games this year, and they've scored on their opening 142 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 5: drive in ten of nineteen games. So that's my biggest 143 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 5: concern is that if you were to take a Chiefs 144 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 5: touchdown score for the first touchdown prop, you might get 145 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 5: squeezed out because this Niners defense has been so efficient 146 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 5: in the first quarter. So instead, I think, if you're 147 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 5: going to take Travis Kelce, you take them for the 148 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,679 Speaker 5: first Chiefs touchdown at plus three thirty? 149 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 2: Does that price compare it all to last year? 150 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 4: If you know, I do. 151 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 5: It was actually plus three to thirty last year. So 152 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 5: that's why I like, Okay, yes, well it's a familiar market. 153 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 5: But also just last week it was around plus two eighty. 154 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 5: The week before it was around plus three hundred, and 155 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 5: that's against the Bills and then the ravensh You know, 156 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 5: if you're gonna keep upping the price, you know, against 157 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 5: a Niners defense that I don't think is really going 158 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 5: to give that much resistance comparatively to those two defenses. 159 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 5: I'm gonna take that. 160 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 3: Okay. 161 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: If anything, they've been focusing more on Kelsey and compared 162 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: to last year, even like how much their Kelsey reliant 163 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: seems to have gone up relative past seasons. 164 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 5: Even like last week when they scored on the Ravens. 165 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 5: Like Kyle Hamilton is one of the best safeties in 166 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 5: the NFL. He hadn't allowed a touchdown to a tight 167 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 5: end all year, and they still gamed up and scripted 168 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 5: up ways to get Kelsey open. So I'm going to 169 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 5: trust Andy Reid to get it to Kelsey, especially on 170 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 5: the first time that they get into the red zone 171 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 5: against the Niners. 172 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 4: Okay, excellent, very good, Grant Niffer from his bunker, What 173 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 4: do you got. 174 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 3: Well, we'll just keep the k C props going. I'm 175 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 3: rolling with Patrick Mahomes over. You can find anywhere from 176 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 3: two sixty point five to two sixty two point five 177 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 3: all over the place. I think I got it at 178 00:07:57,880 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 3: two fifty five point five, but I mean this line 179 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 3: is just way too low. Mahomes. We all know the 180 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 3: Kansas City passed right over expectation. He just is going 181 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 3: to keep chucking it. So far in the playoffs hasn't 182 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 3: hit this at a huge clip. But I mean, we 183 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 3: look at what he's done in the playoffs, like the 184 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 3: first game was a massive win game and it was 185 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 3: horrible weather at the negative wind chill. Game in Buffalo 186 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 3: obviously not great game in Baltimore, obviously not great weather. 187 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 3: Now he's going into a dome here. Yes, I get 188 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 3: the forty nine ers are a tough Pats defense, so 189 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 3: much easier to attack on the ground. I know they've 190 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 3: been good, but it really doesn't matter with Mahomes. They're 191 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 3: still going to throw the ball a ton. I mean, 192 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 3: I'm expecting forty plus pass attempts in this spot here. 193 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 3: His wide receivers have been playing a lot better. Rice 194 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: has been fantastic recently. MBS is actually catching balls, which 195 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 3: is wild to see after the first ten to twelve 196 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 3: weeks in the season. But Patrick Mahomes, over the course 197 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 3: of his career in a dome has averaged twenty more 198 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 3: yards passing per game compared to outdoors. I mean, we 199 00:08:57,720 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 3: forget that he plays over in Kansas City. Really rough way, 200 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 3: so his numbers are slightly deflated because of the tough 201 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 3: spots where he's playing in terms of weather. Now playing 202 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 3: in the dome here, they're going to continue to pass 203 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 3: the ball. Everything's kind of clicking so far in the 204 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 3: playoffs for this pass offense when you factor in the 205 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 3: bad weather here, I haven't prejicted for over twenty yards 206 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 3: over this number here. This is just far too low 207 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 3: in my opinion. I love the Chiefs pass attack this 208 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 3: week that I think is being a little bit undervalue. 209 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 4: Have you imagined a particular game script for this? Meaning 210 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 4: Pachecko has been good on the ground, but Chiefs playing 211 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 4: from behind possibly? 212 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: Or does that not matter to you? 213 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: Kid? 214 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 3: It doesn't really matter too much. I mean we've seen 215 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 3: the Chiefs again, they're pass right over expectation. I think 216 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 3: it's still top in the league, like they're going to 217 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 3: still We've seen it so many times where they're up 218 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 3: big even and they'll still pass the ball a ton. 219 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 3: I know that Pachecko has been very solid so far 220 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 3: in the playoffs. I mean a lot of that was 221 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 3: exploiting the Bills matchup, but it's still an offense that 222 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,439 Speaker 3: is centered around Patrick Mahomes like it doesn't really matter 223 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 3: game script too much for Andy Reid. He's still going 224 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 3: to give the ball to Mahomes, He's still going to 225 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 3: do that short area passes. He's still going to feed 226 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 3: Kelsey and Rice, He's still going to use every other 227 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 3: guy in this offense. I don't really care about game 228 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 3: script too much with Kansas City unless it's a complet 229 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 3: and total blow up, which I don't see happening against 230 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 3: his forty nine ers offensive defense. 231 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:27,599 Speaker 4: Okay, Patrick Mahomes over passing yards number slightly up at BENMGM. 232 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 4: If you can get the best number two sixty and 233 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 4: a half is what Grant's giving out back to you, 234 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 4: Dubundo for your second pick. 235 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: So I wrote about this top at Action network dot com. 236 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 1: Right now, they are eighteen and two this year to 237 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: the under in the second half, and I think at 238 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,680 Speaker 1: least two of the three pods in the playoffs one 239 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: of us has given out the second half under pre 240 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: game on the Chiefs, and I still think it's good. YEP. 241 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: I know Brandon did in the championship, and I think 242 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 1: maybe he did also in the wild card round and 243 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: even in the Bills game, which ended up being pretty 244 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: high scoring. The game changed a lot in the second half, 245 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: and I want to give out kind of some of 246 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: the numbers. I don't want to giveway the whole article, 247 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 1: but you can find it action Network. I tweeted it 248 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: as well. Second half points per game year over year. 249 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: So you would think, you know, Kansas City, one of 250 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: these elite offenses would be near the top in the 251 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: second half, and it's not always true. They're generally right 252 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 1: around ninth, tenth, ninth, third last year in second half 253 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: scoring because they do play from ahead a lot, and 254 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: when they do get ahead, they tend to run the 255 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: ball more. They tend to play a lot slower. So 256 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: their second half pace this year twenty sixth compared to 257 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: eighth in the first half, so they slow the game 258 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: down a lot. Multiple extra seconds per play really makes 259 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: a big difference. And their run rate has increased this 260 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: year in the second half. You even saw it in 261 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: the game against Baltimore where they were not really successful 262 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: running the ball, but they were still trying to do it. 263 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: Check out a ton of carries. And even though they're 264 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: third in pass right over expected, you know, like Grant 265 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: was talking about, they still will throw the ball if 266 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: they're ahead in the second half, they will run it 267 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: the biggest difference year over year. Obviously, the defense has 268 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 1: improved this year, but the Chiefs when trailing have not 269 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: been good offensively whatsoever. They've been low league average, and 270 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: each of the last four years they were one of 271 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: the two or three best offenses EPA per dropback when 272 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: behind in the second half. This year they fall into 273 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 1: below average, and I think that's the biggest issue for 274 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: them in this game, is if they do fall behind 275 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: and they have to get away from the run a 276 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: little bit. Their offensive line has had some problems holding 277 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 1: up in pass rush. I think there's going to be 278 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 1: issues for Kansas City trying to keep up if they 279 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: do fall behind. They might be able to get some 280 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 1: drives going, but are they going to get touchdowns on 281 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: the board and get back into this game? So eighteen 282 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: and two second half under of course, the second half 283 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: points allowed year ofver year tenth in twenty nineteen, twelfth 284 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eleventh, and twenty twenty one seventeenth last year. 285 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: First this year they're allowing less than a touchdown per 286 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 1: game in the second half. So I think there's some 287 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: real signal to this as well. If you look at 288 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: Nate Tice of the Athletic and Yahoo did a really 289 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: nice piece on kind of Chris Jones's numbers and how 290 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: in the first half of games he's pretty bad against 291 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: the run, and then he kind of juices himself up 292 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,959 Speaker 1: second half and brings more enner and gets more tackles, 293 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 1: to the point where he has as many tackles in 294 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter against the run as he does in 295 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: the first three quarters combined. So you're seeing, you know, 296 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: effort improvement. You're seeing this defense kind of tightened the 297 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: screws a little bit, Spike Nola making adjustments. All of 298 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,599 Speaker 1: these things contribute to the fact that this defense is 299 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: playing an elite level in the second half of the games, 300 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: top five and in most success rate numbers. And in 301 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: Kansas City's offense, just like after the first quarter, just 302 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,719 Speaker 1: isn't very good. They're still good on the script when 303 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: they have you know, the read and the Mahomes script, 304 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: it's still good. And we saw this in every playoff 305 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: game they've squat. They got a field goal against Buffalo 306 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: and two touchdowns against Miami and then against Baltimore, but 307 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: after that, like these, the offense was not particularly good 308 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 1: against Baltimore. And so I think all this talk about Mahomes, 309 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: this Mahomes, that second half under twenty three and a 310 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: half is how I'm going to go here. I don't 311 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 1: even hate a first half over necessarily. I just think 312 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,599 Speaker 1: that this game, after halftime, you're going to see some adjustments, 313 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: and this game, you know, crawl a little bit in 314 00:13:58,559 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: the second half. 315 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 4: Two of the best adjusters at halftime, Shanahan and Andy Reid. 316 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 4: Joe Toney is also unlikely to play in this game. 317 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 4: So to your point about the offensive line, Joe Toney 318 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 4: with the peck injury, unlikely to play in Super Bowl 319 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 4: fifty eight. Speaking of the first halfs, that's the second 320 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 4: half play by Dubundo mentioned a first half over, and 321 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 4: Joe Gallant has a first half play for a second one. 322 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, And one of the things I wanted to mention too, 323 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 5: just to add to what du Bundo was mentioning, just 324 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 5: as far as the pace splits go for San Francisco, 325 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 5: because overall in the second half it's about point two 326 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 5: seconds per play that their pace usually slows, but when 327 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 5: they're leading by seven or more, it slows down about 328 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 5: by point seven to two seconds per play. And if 329 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 5: it's a close game, so that means six points or less. 330 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 5: It's about two and a half seconds per play of 331 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 5: where the pace just completely slows down. Plus the fact 332 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 5: that the Chiefs defense has been pretty elite in the 333 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 5: second half, only allowing runs seven and a half points 334 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 5: per game. So that's why I like a first half 335 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 5: touchdown bet for Christian McCaffrey, which is a round plus 336 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 5: one twenty to plus one forty. I'm seeing a plus 337 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 5: one forty out there, so that's the one I'm gonna grab. 338 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 5: But McCaffrey, Okay, four touchdowns in two playoff games rarely 339 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 5: comes off the field. One thing that we're seeing a lot, 340 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 5: especially as the second half of the season is going 341 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 5: on and in the playoffs, is that he's playing over 342 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 5: ninety percent of snap So for a RB one, that's 343 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 5: not typical. Usually that's around sixty to seventy percent. But 344 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 5: the anytime touchdown market right now for McCaffrey, you know, 345 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 5: it's anywhere from minus two hundred to minus two to fifty. 346 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 5: It's not really a ton of value there. But in 347 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 5: eighteen games played this year so that includes the playoffs, 348 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 5: he's scored in fifteen of them. So eighty three percent 349 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 5: of games Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown, But in 350 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 5: the fifteen games that he did score, he had a 351 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 5: first half touchdown in thirteen of those games, so about 352 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 5: eighty six percent of the time that he has scored, 353 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 5: he has scored in the first half, and the Niners 354 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 5: have also scored. I mentioned this the opening drive of 355 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 5: the game. Ten of nineteen games, you could have this 356 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 5: cash probably within five minutes of watching the game. He's 357 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 5: scored six touchdowns the first touchdown of the game this year, 358 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 5: and their first half offenses top five in points per game, 359 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 5: along with the Chiefs. And again, as I was mentioning, 360 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 5: Anthony alluded to with the under twenty three and a 361 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 5: half in the second half, I don't think there's gonna 362 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 5: be a lot of touchdowns scored in the second half, 363 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 5: so the odds should only increase. But I bet if 364 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 5: you were to do it live, like for example, when 365 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 5: he didn't score in the first half against the Packers 366 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 5: and then we were doing bet what happens live and 367 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 5: looking at the live odds, he was actually around still 368 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 5: around plus one twenty to score a touchdown in the 369 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 5: second half. Not a great a lot of value here 370 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 5: considering that most of his damage is done in the 371 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 5: first half. So, Christian McCaffrey, if you're gonna be betting 372 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 5: his touchdown prop in Super Bowl fifty eight, I would 373 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 5: consider first half touchdown at plus one forty instead of 374 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 5: trying to get minus two hundred or minus two fifty 375 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 5: to hit for you. 376 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 4: Okay, anyone have any thoughts on that because it makes 377 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 4: sense to me. 378 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think San Francisco, like, these are two elite 379 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: offenses on the script, right, and that's been the I mean, 380 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: San Francisco's numbers and every quarter are the best in 381 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 1: the league. There's no split you can find where like 382 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: Sarfatisco isn't that good. We don't even have to do 383 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: like the can they come from behind narratives anymore because 384 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: they just did it two straight weeks. But like their 385 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: script is as good as anybody. And so you know, 386 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 1: you could easily see this game like very quick, bang 387 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: bank seven to seven. Maybe for Jill we get you know, 388 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: seven to seven, start Kelsey and McCaffrey, and then we 389 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: then we get a little field goal battle from there 390 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: on for the rest of our props. 391 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, I mean, and the other thing It's hard 392 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 4: to look at the Kansas City Baltimore game because Baltimore 393 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 4: went away from what they've been good at all year. 394 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 4: Gus Edwards had that ten plus yard burst right through 395 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 4: the middle and they never went back to the run. 396 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 2: So you can run on Kansas City. 397 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 4: So maybe it's a fact a couple of things, the 398 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 4: fact that the Niners haven't been good in the first 399 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 4: half their last two games, and that Baltimore went away 400 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,719 Speaker 4: from what they were good at. So I would think 401 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 4: you're getting a pretty good price on McCaffrey based on 402 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 4: what the opponent, the lack of running against the opponent 403 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 4: they're facing in Kansas City, and the fact they just 404 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 4: haven't been the same they've been in the regular season. 405 00:17:58,000 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: So good edge, I think. 406 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 4: On McCaffrey to score in the first half, Grant, you pick, oh, 407 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 4: go ahead to Bundo. 408 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 1: I totally forgot. I was gonna say, so let's just 409 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,439 Speaker 1: skip that part. I'll come back to me at some 410 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: point just about to talk. I know, and I forgot. 411 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 4: All right, maybe you'll we're gonna do predictions too before 412 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 4: we wrap it up, but uh, maybe we'll come back 413 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 4: to you, Grant Nefer. It plays into your first pick 414 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 4: give us your second one. 415 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm rolling with Rice over sixty five sixty seven. 416 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 3: I think over at MGM and sixty five and a 417 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 3: half receiving yards. Rice has been a massive part. I mean, 418 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 3: I've been hitting this line fairly oft in the second 419 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 3: half of the season. He's been a massive part of 420 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 3: this offense. And the guy has nine plus targets in 421 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:38,719 Speaker 3: seven out of the last nine games. And you can 422 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 3: look at his playoff numbers. Obviously he had that massive 423 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 3: game against Miami the first round of the playoffs, and 424 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 3: then it hasn't done a ton since forty six and 425 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 3: forty seven receiving yards. But obviously the Buffalo game, Mahomes 426 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 3: only threw the ball twenty three times. I think they 427 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 3: were running the ball quite a bit in that game. 428 00:18:55,840 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 3: Obvious Buffalo defense that's made semi bad Weather Baltimore game. 429 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 3: They were leading for a large part of it, and 430 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 3: they can kind of limit downfield passes. I think his 431 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 3: longest reception was eleven yards. But he's been a huge 432 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 3: part of this offense. Like this offense is pretty concentrated 433 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 3: around Kelsey and around Rice. I think so far in 434 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 3: the playoffs he's had more targets than I think the 435 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 3: rest of the rets Sedencourt combined or right out the 436 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,160 Speaker 3: same amount. Rice is going to get huge volumes. Again, 437 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 3: I mentioned Mahomes playing inside of a dome. I know 438 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 3: it's a tough match up here, but he's hit this 439 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 3: number at a pretty drastic clip since they started featuring 440 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 3: in the offense the first half of the season, they 441 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 3: were trying to figure out who do we throw and 442 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 3: where they had all these mediocre wide receivers that were 443 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 3: trying to figure out who is going to be a 444 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 3: best fit for this offense. It's clearly Rice in this moment. 445 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 3: He's going to be heavily, heavily involved in this game. 446 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 3: Back to the Niners are the favorite in this spot 447 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 3: only helps the potential game script on You talked about 448 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 3: that earlier, but I think they're going to pass regardless. 449 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 3: I haven't projected for over eighty yards, so full fifteen 450 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 3: sixteen yards over this number like it's way too low 451 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 3: this moment. All the loves over on Kelsey. I got 452 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 3: all the new Taylor Swift fans betting the over on Kelsey, 453 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,199 Speaker 3: which just they kind of have to adjust based on 454 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 3: that just because of Mahomes's total number I'm going with 455 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 3: Rice here, Ran I do actually have Kelsey's I have 456 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 3: way too many Chiefs overs in this, Like I barely 457 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 3: bet any Niners props so far. I basically debo and 458 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 3: that's it. Like everything I have so far is on 459 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 3: Chiefs and solely on the passing attack and could end 460 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 3: up going wrong. But I just think all these numbers 461 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 3: are way too heavily deflated for no reason at all. 462 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 3: In the forty nine Ers defense has been good this season. 463 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 3: The forty nine Ers have been good this season. 464 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 4: For she Rice breakout game November twenty sixth in Vegas, 465 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 4: eight grabs on ten targets one oh seven and a 466 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 4: touchdown in that game. Now, I guess the Raiders and 467 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 4: not the Niners, but that was the Chiefs haven't played 468 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 4: many warm weather or controlled weather games since October. 469 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 3: I don't think that. I think I was looking at 470 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 3: this earlier. I think Mahomes is only played in a 471 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 3: dome like ten times over the course of his career. 472 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,919 Speaker 3: It's an absurdly low number. So I mean, obviously we 473 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 3: don't have a huge sample size, but I think he 474 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 3: averages right around I think it was three eighteen to 475 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 3: three twenty per game. In domes over the course of 476 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 3: his career. I mean, it's retractable roof games, but I 477 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 3: didn't honestly look into that too much because are more 478 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 3: like an umbrella. 479 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: He's only Houston Indian domes in the AFCO. 480 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 5: And the two games that he did play this year 481 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 5: in a dome was in Minnesota and Vegas, and he 482 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 5: threw for two eighty one against the Vikings and just 483 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 5: double check this year against the Raiders is one of 484 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 5: his best game against the Raiders. So he's looked pretty 485 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 5: good in a dome this year. And the one thing too, 486 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 5: that's really interesting about Rice if he just looks it's 487 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 5: a very interesting sample size. But if you just take 488 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 5: like since Thanksgiving, for example, just a little bit more 489 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 5: of a recent sample size, sure Rashi Rice has pretty 490 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 5: much had the same amount of targets, same like, has 491 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 5: more yardage per game, you know, as Travis Kelcey. And 492 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 5: obviously all the money and targets are probably going to 493 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 5: be going to Travis Kelcey as far as from a 494 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 5: betting perspective. And then obviously we're talking about playoff Travis 495 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 5: Kelcey as opposed to the regular season. But yeah, like Grant, 496 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 5: I think makes a good point that this line for 497 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 5: Rashi should probably be in right around the same amount 498 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 5: as Kelsey or more. 499 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 4: Okay, excellent, Yep, that's uh and that's right around your target. 500 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 4: Thanksgiving that Raider game the game in Vegas which he 501 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 4: had success, and Mahomes has had success in the two 502 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 4: Dome games this year, Vegas and Minnesota. This podcast is 503 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 4: probably presented by bet MGM used bonus code action when 504 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 4: signing up to get up to one hundred and fifty 505 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 4: eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars 506 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 4: for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 507 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 508 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,439 Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 509 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 4: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Before we wrap 510 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 4: it up, we did not touch on a side or 511 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 4: a total second half total by Dubundo to be fair. 512 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 2: So why don't we just go around the horn here? 513 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,679 Speaker 2: Give a game prediction. Du Bundo go ahead. 514 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 1: So I've kind of gone back and forth on this 515 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: a lot. The initial thought for me was, Wow, you know, 516 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: Myhomes is a dog again, and how do we not 517 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: go back to that same song and dance? And you 518 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: know he's ten one in one in his career as 519 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 1: a underdog. You've probably heard that this week if you've 520 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: listened to other content and who's talked about the Super Bowl. 521 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 1: And I initially went in thinking, look, I've kind of 522 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: thought this San Francisco defense was a fraud all of 523 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: the playoffs, and I bet against them in their playoff games, 524 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 1: and I think that's been born out. But I think 525 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 1: now the market is clearly corrected for it, and maybe 526 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: over corrected to the point where, like we all talked about, 527 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: what does the San Francisco defensive issues against green and 528 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: Detroit say about San Francisco? But what if we just 529 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: say whose offense is playing better right now? Green Bay 530 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 1: in Detroit or Kansas City? I think everybody here I 531 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 1: would personally take both Green Bay and Detroit over the 532 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: Kansas City offense right now, just based on offensive line play, 533 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: explosiveness in the running game, number of receiving options that 534 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 1: are available. Obviously, the quarterback is a downgrade, with Mahomes 535 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: being you know, the goat but like the where's the difference? 536 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,479 Speaker 1: How does Kansas City keep up in this game? If 537 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: San Francisco is able to effectively operate offensively, you're making 538 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: a really big bet on Steve Spagnolo. If you like 539 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: the Chiefs here, That's what I think. I think you're 540 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 1: betting less on Mahomes and more on Spignolo. There is 541 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,959 Speaker 1: a path to what kind of what grants prop suggests too, though, 542 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 1: which is San Francisco's defense when they've played other elite quarterbacks. Okay, 543 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: they played Dac completely shut them down. They played Jalen 544 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 1: Hurts completely shut them down. They did go to Cincinnati 545 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: play Cincinnati and struggle to deal with like the short 546 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,359 Speaker 1: precision underneath stuff that Burrow was killing them with. It 547 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 1: was one of their worst games defensively the way back 548 00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,120 Speaker 1: in September October when everybody was panicking about the Niners 549 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 1: their offense. Their defense got obliterated in that game. So 550 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: you have seen teams do it kind of nickel and 551 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 1: dime them to death. I just think it's going to 552 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 1: be very hard, given this matchup is much better for 553 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: San Francisco. I think overall, the more I've thought about 554 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: this game and the more I looked at the number. 555 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,159 Speaker 1: The more I look at it, I'm like, it's turning 556 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 1: to tilt towards San Francisco to the point where Party 557 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 1: has had a lot of mistakes that have not gotten 558 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: penalized in this playoffs. That is for sure true, and 559 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: this is the best defense he's played in the playoffs 560 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 1: by far. But if Party just keeps his nerve, I 561 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: think San Francisco is a clear like three three and 562 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 1: a half favorite here, and they're longly laying like one 563 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: and a half two to two and a half now, 564 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 1: So I think if I had to better side, and 565 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 1: I probably will end up betting San Francisco to win 566 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,439 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl because I just don't really see the 567 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: path to Kansas City keeping up with them offensively, given 568 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 1: just how limited we've seen them be. Like, yes, they 569 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,920 Speaker 1: had that great game against Buffalo, but the red zone 570 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: problems are still there the second half they got totally 571 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: shut out in Baltimore. Like, I'm still concerned about a 572 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 1: few different things with this offense, whereas with San Francisco 573 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: fully healthy, literally nobody has stopped them all season long 574 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: without a ton of turnovers. So what's the path? I 575 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 1: don't know it seems hard to me. 576 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 4: I think you're right, though, if you're betting Kansas City, 577 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 4: you're trusting their their defense. 578 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 2: I think that's the best unit of the four playing 579 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 2: right now right now. 580 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: Topped them on, I'll still take the Niners offense. I 581 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: think that's the other thing too, Right like when when 582 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: Mahomes when they won the first one in this rematch, 583 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,160 Speaker 1: I obviuys sly the teams are very different. San Francisco's 584 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 1: defense not nearly as good. Cervirus offense is way better now. 585 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 1: But that was Mahomes engineering a comeback, and that just 586 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: has not been the Chiefs como this year. They have 587 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: not been good enough at that. And so I could 588 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: see like a long. 589 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 3: Chiefs drive takes should have happened, Like they've had a 590 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:54,399 Speaker 3: lot of drops. 591 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:59,679 Speaker 1: In NBS game, the Mvs dropped though they were up 592 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,199 Speaker 1: ten at half and then just couldn't score for the 593 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,119 Speaker 1: entire game until the NAL drive, right, like that was 594 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,439 Speaker 1: another one that right, and that was the Yeah. So 595 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 1: they've had opportunities, don't get me wrong, but but they 596 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 1: have not. Just I just I struggled to see how 597 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: this line like two three weeks ago would have been 598 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: three and a half and now it's only two and 599 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,199 Speaker 1: I'm like, well, I kind of want to bet the Niners. 600 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 1: So that's why I've come down on this. And we've 601 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 1: got a few more days still game time. But I 602 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 1: think I'm San Franisco and it sounds crazy because I 603 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: I at the beginning of the playoffs, I started a 604 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,120 Speaker 1: chief money line rollover, and I'm kind of like, well, 605 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 1: I like the matchup against the other teams in the AFC. 606 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: I just this Niner offensive juggernaut. Even when they it 607 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: feels like they played bad, they still scored twenty four 608 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: on Green Bay and thirty four on Detroit, like it 609 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 1: didn't feel like they played close to their best game 610 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: in there. And they also get a controlled environment too, 611 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 1: So I. 612 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 4: Struggle now to make a pick because they thought your 613 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 4: analysis was pretty good and it's fair, So I'm not 614 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 4: gonna go yet. 615 00:27:58,240 --> 00:27:59,480 Speaker 1: It is a Super Bowl, right, you should be able 616 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: to make a case for sides. If you can't, you're 617 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 1: missing something. 618 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:03,479 Speaker 5: What I was going to say is I'm not going 619 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 5: to just default to the well Mahomes' dog ats and 620 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 5: just kind of default to that kind of talk. But 621 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 5: I will say the two things that concern me with 622 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 5: San Francisco is and I know that we have a 623 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 5: two game sample size on the playoffs of them engineering 624 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 5: comebacks and making the right decisions in the second half. 625 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 5: I'm still not quite there yet from a Shanahan perspective 626 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,439 Speaker 5: that he is going if it's a closer game, that 627 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 5: he is going to make the appropriate decisions, the appropriate 628 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 5: timeout calls, all those kinds of things. Plus, let's say 629 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 5: it's a twenty twenty four to twenty four game, I'm 630 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 5: really concerned of whether or not Jake Moody can hit 631 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 5: that field goal to win it. And that's what really 632 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 5: kind of makes me concerned. So I'm not saying that 633 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 5: I don't think San Francisco can win, but I am 634 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 5: going to take the Chiefs twenty seven to twenty four 635 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 5: that they're going to engineer a last second field goal 636 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 5: to win the game. 637 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 4: Short, concise to the point, great nef'. 638 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 3: I know the smart money's probably on the forty nine 639 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 3: ers for most of what Dabundo said there, I'm on 640 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 3: the Chiefs like I'm on the Chiefs, and I'm on 641 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 3: the chief straight up, I've already got money on them. 642 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 3: I don't I may be jaded. I'm a Seahawks fan, 643 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 3: so I can't stand the forty nine ers. Rockberty's story 644 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 3: is great, but like a lot of things into this, 645 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 3: like Mahomes as a dog, that is obviously one of 646 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 3: the things. Read with an extra week of time to prepare, 647 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 3: like we've seen. I know the narrative hasn't been quite 648 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 3: the same in the last four years, but read generally 649 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 3: with an extra week like coming off of bye week, 650 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 3: has done very very well, I know so far. In 651 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 3: the Super Bowls, I think he's two and two, two 652 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 3: and three. I can't remember two and two. Lost one 653 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 3: for the with the Eagles. That was a close game, 654 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,400 Speaker 3: and hey, he's against Tom Brady. I think he's two 655 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 3: and oh or zero and two, but everyone else he's 656 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 3: two and oh in the Super Bowl. But read extra 657 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 3: week of offense, clear clear, clear upgrade in quarterback for 658 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 3: the Chiefs, which is generally what wins Super Bowls and 659 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 3: is what won Super Rules for the last two decades 660 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 3: outside when Peyton Manning was garbage for the Broncos and 661 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 3: they still won everything. Kind of points towards the forty 662 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 3: nine ers in terms of stats, but like brock Party, 663 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 3: this is only what his fifth career fourth career playoff 664 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 3: start month which he was knocked out fairly quickly. It 665 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 3: may not be the smart move, Like honestly, with Super Bowl, 666 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 3: this is a weird one where you have so many 667 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 3: people just putting money on the Chiefs because of Taylor Swift. 668 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 3: So that's why the line has kind of moved that 669 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 3: way so much. But even so, like, I'm still on 670 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,480 Speaker 3: the Chiefs. This is probably not a smart bet, I 671 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 3: will say that, but I've got a decent amount of 672 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 3: money on them already. 673 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:51,719 Speaker 1: Good. I'll go twenty four to twenty San Francisco Chiefs 674 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: get the ball with like three minutes left, everybody does 675 00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 1: the here we go, Pat Mahomes does it, and he 676 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 1: actually doesn't, and the forty nine Ers get a stop 677 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. And then we go back 678 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 1: and we say, well, the Chiefs were really at the 679 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: end of the day, they were one guy short. They 680 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: didn't have enough offensively to keep up and that's what 681 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: cost him. Back to what we've all said, like most 682 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 1: of the season rings true in the Super Bowl, I'll 683 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 1: go twenty four to twenty nine Ers going to be 684 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,280 Speaker 1: tight one and the Chiefs get two field goals in 685 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 1: that scenario. So I'm happy with that going. 686 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 3: I'm going thirty one. 687 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 4: Team's deficiency, whether it's che the Chiefs offense just not 688 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 4: having enough or brock Purty making a crew, it's one 689 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 4: of these teams is going to have that glaring error 690 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 4: where you're like, that's who they were all year or 691 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 4: this is what they've been covering up for the postseason. 692 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe Moody misses a field goal to keep it 693 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 1: at twenty four to twenty to give the ball back 694 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: to the Niners. The perfect scenario, it's like fourth and two, 695 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 1: The Niners have a chance to ice it, but they don't. 696 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 1: They kick and everybody goes, oh, Shanahan's so dumb, and 697 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: then he misses the field goal and then everybody's like, well, 698 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: now the door's open from homes and then the Chiefs 699 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 1: don't do it. That's my very specific prediction twenty four 700 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: twenty Niners. 701 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 5: With a more. 702 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 3: Specific than that. Moody misses a field goal to win 703 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 3: the game at twenty four to twenty four, go to 704 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 3: ot Niners, don't score, Chiefs score Chiefs thirty to twenty 705 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 3: four in ot. 706 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 5: Okay, very goodable, questionable penalty two on roughing the pass 707 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 5: or something on mol that's a lot. 708 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah, that's going to do it. Here on 709 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast for our Super. 710 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 4: Bowl fifty eight Best Bets episode, we're presented by our 711 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,040 Speaker 4: friends at bet MGM. Don't forget to download the free 712 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,280 Speaker 4: award winning Action Network app to see all the guys picks. 713 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 4: They might have more leading up to Sunday, And as 714 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 4: I said before, check out the Action Network Discord server 715 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 4: to chop it up with the experts and fellow gamblers 716 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,239 Speaker 4: during the games. Best of luck to all of your 717 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 4: bets this weekend, and thank you to everyone. This is 718 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 4: our final episode of the year, So thank you to 719 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 4: everyone who's listened to our podcast and the episodes, the 720 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 4: Best Bets episodes throughout the season. Tons of Super Bowl 721 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 4: content available on the Action Network podcast, so check that out. 722 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 4: And because I know what happens here as Sunday happens 723 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 4: and the people are like. 724 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 2: Now what, now, what do I do? 725 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,479 Speaker 4: You have the NBA Betting Pod Buckets available to you 726 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 4: Big Bets on Campus for everything college basketball, and we 727 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 4: also have our UFC betting previews right here on the 728 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast. 729 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 2: So plenty to come. 730 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: Champions League starts back up on Tuesday. 731 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 2: I wasn't done yet. Wonderful, good job. 732 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 4: Wait to plug it and then you know baseball will 733 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,480 Speaker 4: happen and to Bundo will be there too. Thanks again 734 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 4: for Dubundo, Joe Galant grant me for Brendy Blasheet. 735 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everybody. 736 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 4: This is the Action Network podcast presented by betem have 737 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 4: fun and doing the Super Bowl. 738 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 739 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 740 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler