WEBVTT - Full Episode - Trump Has Two Options For Iran: Escalate… Or Capitulate + Does Georgia Reveal The Future Of Post-Trump Republican Politics? 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.040 This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:00:02.080 --> 0:00:04.440 by Ethos and what Ethos does is it helps you 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:06.880 find life insurance. Let me tell you why life insurance 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:09.360 bailed me out. My father died when I was sixteen. 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:11.680 We didn't have a lot of money when it happened, 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:14.640 and we were in a pretty tough financial spot after 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:18.520 it happened. I'm an only child. Suddenly my mother's single, 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.360 single mother. She had a job, suddenly lost a job, 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:23.799 looking for another job, and we were struggling. 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I feel like I should share 0:01:56.960 --> 0:02:01.520 a few a few quick takes for you on or 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:03.440 a few different ways to be thinking about it, or 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:06.160 at least share with you how I how I'm thinking 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.480 about it and see how much that informs you. That's 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.080 one thing I try not to do is I'm not 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:12.560 trying to tell you what you think. I'm trying to 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:17.799 sort of lay out, lay out a structure to understand 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.320 why whatever the situation is we're in. Look, there were 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:23.679 two dominant stories that I'm going to spend a lot 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:27.280 of time on. Obviously, the biggest one is Iran. Iran 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:30.920 sort of is everything because of its massive impact on 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.760 the global economy, which of course means our economy, which 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.200 of course means Campaign twenty twenty six. But the Eric 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:42.200 Swawell implosion out in California also is a really really 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:47.760 b FD, as Joe Biden might whisper in the ear 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:52.840 of Barack Obama, and it's something that we need to 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:56.040 spend a lot of time on because it's actually two stories. Right. One, 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:59.720 it's going to trigger a bunch of show votes in 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.640 cong VERUS, so Congress can make itself feel better by 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:10.200 kicking out men behaving badly. But the other shakeup is 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.400 what's going to happen in California. I think what we 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:15.640 will we know for sure, and I think this has 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.080 now been more likely than we You know, I just 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.320 think now the swallow thing trigger it. Here's the bottom line. 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:26.359 There's going to be another election for California governor before 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:30.800 twenty thirty. That I promise you. I do not believe 0:03:30.840 --> 0:03:35.200 whoever wins this governor's race will be able to survive 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:40.760 the inevitable recall effort that is coming. We are slip 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:44.120 sliding into one of those Californy governor's races. It's going 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:46.560 to look a lot like two thousand and two Gray 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:50.400 Avis versus Bill Simon, where everybody hates their choices. So 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:53.400 those are the two dominant stories. A bunch of other 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.240 stuff percolating. Not going to leave it on the cutting 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:57.840 room floor. I want to want to get to a 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:02.360 bunch of it. My guest Martha z Aller, and she's 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.760 really interesting. She's a conservative talk radio host in Georgia, 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:08.600 but she's not somebody who's sort of stuck in her 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.200 own bubble. And you know, as you know, I'm always 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:13.640 desperate to find people not stuck in their bubble. I 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:17.479 don't you know mine left and right, you know, center, progressive, 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:22.840 you name it. It's that you accept the premise that 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:26.960 you may believe you're right, but not everybody agrees with you. 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:29.280 The point is, I think Martha will give us a 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:34.720 nice little I think she did, certainly she did for me, 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:37.679 give us a nice little insight on where the Georgia 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.000 Republican Party is. I think it's the most interesting Republican 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:43.360 party in the country because it's no less conservative than 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:48.479 it's been. But it is interesting that the that the 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:53.920 Republicans who feel the most comfortable pushing back at Trump, 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:59.760 other than Utah, which pushes back more on character the 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:04.039 publicans in that state. It really there is a bit 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:06.760 of it's both character driven in policy driven. Right, both 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:10.960 Brian Kemp and Marjorie Taylor Green have separated themselves with 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:13.719 Trump and lived to see another day. So I just 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:16.680 think what's happening inside the Georgia Republican Party is interesting, 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.680 and Martha's got her finger on it, and she's sort 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.359 of she's got feet in all the camps, and I 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:25.360 think there's a lot to learn and it's very instructive. 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:28.640 I hope it's instructive for you about where the GOP 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:32.520 is headed as it transitions from a Trump party to 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:39.760 a post Trump party. But let's get to Iran. So 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:43.680 the ceasefire is I guess kind of intact, but make 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:46.919 no mistake, a naval blockade, which President Trump ordered on 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:52.240 Sunday is an act of war. That's you know, that 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:55.039 is what it is. Now we are still at war 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:57.000 with Iran. I think Iran still at war with us. 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:01.120 The question is does either country break the ceasefire? Is 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:06.520 this considered breaking of the ceasefire? Will the Iranians respond 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:10.040 or just part of a stalemate until we hit the 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.360 end of the two weeks or until we see negotiations 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.839 pick up. Because one thing that it is important. Neither 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:20.320 jd Evans for the American side nor the Iranians indicated 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.520 that they both behaved as if they knew there would 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.000 be another round of talks. They didn't say another round 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:31.280 was coming, but you get the impression another round is coming. 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:38.400 Still no deal, no framework, and no actual next step 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:42.880 just yet. But in some ways the blockade is an 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.920 acknowledgment by President Trump that the United States has less 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:51.239 leverage in this deal than we want to admit. Certainly, 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:52.600 you know, the President doesn't want to man it. He 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.119 keeps declaring victory, and that's a huge problem. If you've won, 0:06:56.320 --> 0:07:00.599 then why are you negotiating? If you've won Why are 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:04.880 you potentially floating the idea of a joint venture with 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:08.960 Iran to patrol and maybe even collect tolls for the 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.400 straight of Horn moves and the tolls being used as reparations. Right, So, 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:18.400 this is why his rhetoric is not harmless. The stupid 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.480 rhetoric he makes untruth social, the dumb rhetoric where he 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:26.320 beats his checks, declares victory or sort of the secretary 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.240 of the fence who constantly loves to beat his chest 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:33.880 and you know, I guess probably you know, choose on 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:37.080 too much creatine before he does any of his press 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:43.440 briefings and declares these capital v victories. Okay, then why 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:45.800 are we negotiating? Right? So, the bottom line is we 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:49.560 don't have leverage. They do. They came out of this 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:53.640 ceasefire with the single most important piece of leverage, control 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:56.280 of the straight of Horror moves, control of the global economy, 0:07:56.600 --> 0:08:01.720 and essentially control right now of the Trump presidency. So 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.240 that's why Trump in some ways had no choice but 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:07.800 to do this with the straight of hormones. The He's 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.000 got to find and see if he can get some 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.640 leverage to force the Iranians to back off a little bit. 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:19.440 So the question is is there a next step? Right? 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:26.280 I think it. The blockade is intended to get around 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.720 back to the table and to start having a conversation 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:32.280 about the Strait and about the nuclear deal. If there 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:36.280 is no The question though, is will the president escalate 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:39.880 further if this does not get the deal he's looking for? 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:45.600 Does he then send in ground troops to didn't try 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:49.480 to militarily take control of the Straight and essentially operate 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:57.000 the Straight in behalf of the world. Now there's all 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:02.800 sort of look the where to morning quarterback this war. Obviously, 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:10.400 the total misunderstanding of the power of the Strait that 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.800 the Iranians would have is the initial blunder of this war. 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:17.040 This is the I swear to you, there's WMDs right this. 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:20.840 If you're going to say, if there was any like, 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:24.840 what is the failure of this administration for going into war? 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:31.000 It is underplaying and underrealizing the leverage the Iranians had 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:34.880 with the Strait. And had they understood it from the 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:37.560 beginning and they chose to do this, my guess is 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:39.720 they would have immediately tried to get control of the 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:45.520 Straight first, then you start worrying about everything else. But again, 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:50.080 the problem here is the president surrounded himself with sycophants, 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:53.680 and even though we have learned that these folks did 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.920 not want to endorse his strategy, here they were afraid 0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:59.360 of telling him the truth. They were afraid of telling 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.000 they They just danced around the edges of the issues 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.439 and allowed him to hear what he wanted. And now 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:11.079 we're in this potentially intractable situation that we're in where 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:16.600 we may have no choice but escalate because of the 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:21.199 initial blunder at the beginning, or you're going to have 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.120 to cut a deal with the Iranians that leaves the 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:30.480 regime in power, legitimizes the regime, gives them acknowledges their 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:37.720 control over the Strait, and essentially makes the hardliners like 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:39.720 John Bolton are going to wish they had the Iran 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:44.560 nuclear deal, because the best thing that Trump can get 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:50.320 now is essentially naftaizing the Iran nuclear deal. And what 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:54.240 do I mean by that by naftaizing? He said he 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:57.400 hated NAFTA, so he ripped it up, renegotiated the same 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.600 deal with the Mexicans and the Canadians and called it 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:05.319 us MCA the United States Mexican Canadian right accord whatever. See, 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:10.280 there's there's no NAFTA. That's what's coming here. He's gonna 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:14.120 hope he can get the Obama nuclear deal. If he's lucky, 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:18.960 he can get the Obama Obama nuclear deal. And that's 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.640 if this this is the best, the best version of this, 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:27.120 you know. And again we can sit here and talk 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.520 about all the all the problems going into this thing. Right, 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.280 it was a mistake, and everybody advised him. It was 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:35.640 most people around him advised him. It was a mistake 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:39.000 outside of John Bolton and and and the Gulf States 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.600 and Israel. And this is a case where the president 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:46.600 consistently listens to outside voices rather than his own military 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.280 advisors and his own intelligence. He did it all the 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.360 time in his first term, and he's doing it again 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.880 in his second term. And that is an issue that 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.760 does not get enough attention. He trusts the Israeli intelligence 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.640 more than he trusts the US intelligence. The Israeli said 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:03.360 this was going to be easy regime. James was going 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.400 to happen and the people were going to rise up, 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.840 And the CIA said that was bullshit. And the CIA 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:12.600 is fronted by somebody who is a trumper, John Radcliffe, 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.000 who wants to tell Trump what he wants to hear, 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:18.840 but can't bring himself to tell him bullshit. But the 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:22.200 President refuses to listen to his own his own folks 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:30.400 on that front. So the next look that I expect 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:34.280 the markets to panic a bit. I mean, I kind 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:37.920 of think they've been under panicking. I'm a bit hopeful 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:40.880 that somehow, you know, the resilience of the markets in 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.560 the past, just like they were during the pandemic, just 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:47.120 like they have been during the Russia Ukraine War, that 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:49.760 it's going to happen again. But the lack of a 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:53.719 clear resolution it is, you know, here's what we do now. 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.920 President does not want to restart the war. There's no 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.600 doubt he probably read rats ever starting it, and considering 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:05.840 the situation he's in, you know, he could have you know, 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.240 in hindsight, right, should he have tried to squeeze him more, 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:12.480 Should he have tried to find more ways to isolate Iran, 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:18.240 do more to it, to increase the stranglehold so that 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.199 the people would rise up and be angry at their leaders, 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:25.880 and instead, in a weird way, he's even united. If 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.640 you guys have started following my friend, my Suzanne kan 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:33.280 Poor she's her reporting is indicated that they're you know, 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:38.280 even those that don't like this regime, uh now feel 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:42.440 as if that it's everybody versus America, which is a 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:44.920 very dangerous place to be. And it's you really got 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.680 to bungle this as badly as this administration has bungled 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.160 this to put put ourselves in this situation. Well, we're 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:54.400 basically begging iron to come to give us some deal 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.559 so Trump can save face and the and that's the thing. 0:13:58.600 --> 0:13:59.600 The Iranians know it. 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:01.160 They know. 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:06.000 They know it. They know he can't handle the economic 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.480 fallout from this, they know it's politically beyond painful for him. 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.800 They know it screws up his trade negotiations with China 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:18.840 next month, It messes up all sorts of aspects of him. 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.320 And look, the Iranians, they will negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.400 and they're going to keep dragging this out. So the 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.840 end of the day, he had to find some leverage. 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.840 We'll see if doing a blockade of the Strait does that. 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:34.560 But it is going to have you know, this is 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.640 it's going to be it's probably going to be an 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:42.200 ugly day in the markets because now whether we're questions, 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:44.680 is the straight open or not? Now it's we know 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:50.200 it's not open, right, it is definitely closed. But I 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:52.800 go back to something right. The problem, Right, the president 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.480 has already declared victory and he continues to try to 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:58.800 declare victory. So if we've already won, why do we 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:02.280 have to keep doing all of these things? And this 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:04.480 is the position he's put himself in. Right, when you 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:09.480 define victory early then compromise later starts to look like retreat. 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:12.880 And right now the Iranians know it, they see it. 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:16.520 It looks like retreat because it is retreat. The president 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.080 can't afford to do this. We didn't have we don't. 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.800 He can't politically, he does not have the political capital 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.960 to get even his own party to give him time 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.160 to put in ground troops to get control the straight. 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:31.960 And you know, he's just you know, and then there's 0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:34.880 who he is, right, he doesn't have the patience to 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:38.280 do things methodically. He's always looking for a shortcut. It's 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:41.160 been it's defined his career. And the thing is is 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.560 that he's had so much success with short cuts that 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:48.680 he forgets the failures with shortcuts. That also, right, he 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:51.360 was able to become a star because of short cuts, 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:56.000 but bankruptcy. He was still the only one of the 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.680 few casino operators to find a way to go bankrupt 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:02.360 oning casino because he was taking a shortcut on competition 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.640 and try to buy up all his competitors. You know, 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.000 he shortcuted his way into politics, but he didn't really 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:11.720 build a coalition in order to support him and use 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:14.680 his political capital. So when you take all these shortcuts, 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:16.760 right he's trying to shortcut his way into getting an 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.080 Iranian victory. He's trying to shortcut his way and trying 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.560 to get a Venezuelan victory. But he's no longer promoting 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:24.880 democracy anymore. In America is not on the side of 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:27.280 democratic freedom. We are not on the side of democratic 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:31.960 freedom in Venezuela right now, and we're doing a poor 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.200 job of being on the side of freedom, democratic freedom 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:40.400 and Iran. But ultimately that's what you have to remember here. 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:43.040 In conflicts like this, the side that understands the other 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.080 side better usually has the advantage. President Trump does not 0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:49.560 understand this Iranian regime. He thinks they're all just as 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:54.320 transactional as he is. He sees everybody through the himself. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:58.840 He assumes everybody behaves the way that everybody's motivation is 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.560 what his motivation is, power, money, et cetera. And he 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:08.199 just assumes those same motivations and certainly loosely the motivations 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:12.879 are similar, and they may rhyme, but he did not 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.320 and does not. And you know, again, he didn't bother 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:19.320 to study, right. You know, he doesn't listen to the 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:23.640 experts who have studied the Iranians for decades, not just weeks, 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:27.480 months or even years. He doesn't listen to those experts. 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:35.119 But here we are in some ways, this is this 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:38.000 is why Iran is starting to look like our failed 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:43.720 military expeditions. Vietnam second Iraq war are the two most 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.879 are the two biggest ones, and now this one because 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:54.439 we succeeded militarily right sort of, but we didn't get 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:58.880 our strategic end goal. And even with Iraq we kind 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.520 of ended up, I guess what we wanted. There is 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.240 no a rock with a nuclear program, so that's good. 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.800 There's no a rock with Saddam Hussein. But boy was 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:10.159 the cost worth it? Right? And I think to this 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:13.480 day we're not even sure that the cost was worth it. 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:22.520 So bottom line is the good news is the talks 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:24.400 are going to have There's going to be another round 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:28.199 of talks. Both sides did not indicate that there was 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.879 no room for more talks. This was the first meeting, 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.399 was always inevitably going to be a feeling out. Meaning. 0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:36.960 But I think the one thing that the that President 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.560 Trump ought to take away is an understanding. And I 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.639 think again his move to try to blockade the Straight 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:45.439 is in some ways any acknowledgment of this, which is 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:50.520 he didn't have enough leverage destroy you know, and and 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:52.720 you know right now, the Iranians care about one thing, 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:57.960 control of that straight. So Trump is right to try 0:18:57.960 --> 0:18:59.600 to go after the one thing they care about in 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.159 order to see if he can regain some leveragere But 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:08.639 you know, the most likely endgame here is not a 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:12.600 restart of the war. It is not a sending ground 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:16.000 troops in to get control of the stray. The most 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:21.480 likely dgame here is the Iran Nuclear deal two point zero. 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:26.480 Donald Trump will call it then, you know USMCA of 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:30.239 Nuclear Deals brand new. It won't do this, won't do that, 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:37.560 but it'll give them some money. And remember, you know 0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:41.080 why Iran doesn't want to give up the idea that 0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:46.840 it may never pursue a nuclear weapon Libya. Right, the 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:49.879 Libya example is always the reason Libya gave up its 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:57.159 nuclear ambition and regime change happened. North Korea has not 0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.840 given up his nuclear ambition, and that Kim Jong n 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:03.600 he just named his daughter the latest air parent. If 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:08.000 something happens to him, and we may end up with 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:12.200 a fourth generation of North Korean leaders, all because they 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:18.000 have a nuclear weapon. So it's not irrational how the 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:22.760 Iranians are thinking. Right, this is a case and there's 0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:24.879 no doubt the United States, the North Korea is a 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:28.240 reason why to do whatever it takes to not let 0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:33.600 Aron get there. Carrots and sticks. Trump has been all stick. 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:36.399 He's going to have to now have to give some carrots, 0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:38.280 and he ain't gonna like it, and he's going to 0:20:38.320 --> 0:20:43.200 find out. Remember, we don't trust them and they don't 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:47.840 trust us. And in situations like this, whatever agreement you 0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:51.439 come into is a leap of faith. You're going to 0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:54.480 have to trust somebody you don't trust. That's why you 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:56.880 put in verifications and all sorts of things in there. 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:00.200 But it is in if you want to deal, well, 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:02.480 it's inevitable you're going to get one where you have 0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:06.800 to give up something you don't like. And in that sense, 0:21:06.840 --> 0:21:09.359 Donald Trump, this is where he is a terrible deal maker. 0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:11.960 He has never been. He does not believe in win win. 0:21:12.560 --> 0:21:15.520 He wants to get the best of somebody, and he 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:20.000 thinks caving into any demand of the other side makes 0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:22.880 him look weak. Well, you know what makes him look weak? 0:21:26.800 --> 0:21:33.240 Presiding over this economy that's deteriorating by the hour. That's 0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:38.880 something that makes you look weak. And in case you're 0:21:38.920 --> 0:21:43.040 wondering the economic hit, it's already happening. Consumer confidence is 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:47.240 now lower, lower than it was during the pandemic. We 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:50.119 are now in this We're lowest in the Michigan Index. 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:53.840 We're talking as bad as the seventies were. And remember 0:21:53.960 --> 0:21:57.159 we now have a fertilizer issue, We've got food transport issues, 0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:03.760 and we got supply chain issues. So this is not 0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:07.800 going to get better anytime soon. This is and we 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:11.440 have not felt the worst parts of this. Every expert said, 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:14.320 come about mid April, then all of a sudden, it's 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:16.760 going to feel like things went off a cliff. Well, 0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:20.240 this is the week where we hit mid April gas 0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:23.320 prices biggest one month spike since the sixties. Hiring is 0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:30.720 slowing wages are flattening. Uncertain economic future means companies start 0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:34.520 freezing everything they're doing. You pull back on new investments, 0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.160 you hold off on new hires, because you're not sure 0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:39.920 where this economy is going. And in this case, this 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:47.600 is why the bad shoots that we're seeing on the economy, 0:22:47.600 --> 0:22:51.399 and it's opposed to green shoots. It could accelerate because 0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:59.200 of that situation. Before I leave the Iran issue here, 0:23:00.520 --> 0:23:03.240 I know Trump doesn't care about optics anymore, but I 0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:08.240 thought Marco Rubio might as talks are deteriorating with the 0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:11.240 war with Iran, which of course is going to probably 0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:15.280 could probably trigger a global recession. I'm glad to know 0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:17.160 that the commander in chief and the Secretary of State 0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:22.120 were whooping it up at a UFC match in Miami. 0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:27.480 Not the best look, I know. If I were a 0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:29.800 Republican on the ballot, I'd be like, does the President 0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:32.959 take any of this seriously? I mean, sometimes is it? 0:23:32.960 --> 0:23:35.000 You know, he just, you know, the celebrity parts of 0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:39.200 the presidency matter more to him than the actual job itself. 0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:44.320 And it's moments like Saturday night where he's whooping it 0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:47.120 up at at at a at a at a UFC 0:23:47.320 --> 0:23:50.920 match while JD. Vance is negotiating in his behalf and 0:23:50.960 --> 0:23:55.399 having to walk away. And here's the thing, you know, 0:23:55.560 --> 0:23:58.480 Marco Rubio, you know, you know who would have been 0:23:59.160 --> 0:24:02.600 really critical of a Secretary of State behaving this way, 0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:06.960 Senator Marco Rubio. If John Kerrey at all had done 0:24:07.040 --> 0:24:09.720 anything even close to this, gone to a Bruce Springsteen 0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:13.280 concert while there was a negotiation on the rand nuclear 0:24:13.320 --> 0:24:17.280 dew right, I promise you a Senator Marco Rubio would 0:24:17.320 --> 0:24:19.760 be beating his chest about it. You have one job. 0:24:20.080 --> 0:24:24.879 All this stuff. Deep down inside, he knows it's a 0:24:24.920 --> 0:24:30.960 bad look, you know. And with Rubio and I wonder, look, 0:24:31.600 --> 0:24:33.600 I'm some people think I'm too tough on Rubey, and 0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:35.520 some of you think I give Rubia too much credit. 0:24:35.960 --> 0:24:37.960 I've heard that too. Oh you keep thinking, you know, 0:24:39.359 --> 0:24:46.960 when you know, I just know he knows better, and 0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:49.760 everybody who knows him knows he knows better. And he's 0:24:49.800 --> 0:24:52.080 allowed himself to get caught up in this. And maybe 0:24:52.119 --> 0:24:54.280 it's a little celebrity, maybe it's the middle class chip 0:24:54.320 --> 0:24:55.240 on his shoulder. I get it. 0:24:56.760 --> 0:24:57.159 I have it. 0:24:57.920 --> 0:25:01.720 I have that chip. You know, he wasn't born on 0:25:01.800 --> 0:25:04.960 third base and then and handed everything. I wasn't born 0:25:05.000 --> 0:25:06.800 on third base, so I get it. I get the chip, 0:25:10.080 --> 0:25:12.399 but you got to have the character to sort of 0:25:12.520 --> 0:25:15.359 understand how to draw some lines and how to compartmentalize it. 0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:19.200 You know, he seems to have gotten It's almost like 0:25:19.240 --> 0:25:23.160 he's more caught up on the celebrity than I thought 0:25:23.800 --> 0:25:27.639 he would. It's just a disappointment. I know that's not 0:25:27.720 --> 0:25:30.760 a new criticism for me, but I know he knows better. 0:25:31.160 --> 0:25:32.879 And that was a bad look. And that's one of 0:25:32.920 --> 0:25:36.240 those that you feel like, I know, nothing matters, right, 0:25:36.359 --> 0:25:38.080 Trump can shoot somebody and put that on and blah 0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:43.040 blah blah. But it just chips away again, chips away, 0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:49.000 chips away. You know, this is serious stuff. I'm sorry 0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:53.720 they can't they am you know, nobody's saying don't watch 0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:56.760 the match, but you know, send a message to the 0:25:56.800 --> 0:25:59.439 country that you're worried about what's happening in their lives. 0:26:00.840 --> 0:26:04.040 You have made decisions that have upended the lives of 0:26:04.200 --> 0:26:06.239 millions of Americans. But I'm glad you're having a good 0:26:06.240 --> 0:26:16.679 time at a UFC match. That's awesome. That's awesome. Well, 0:26:16.720 --> 0:26:18.920 this episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:26:19.080 --> 0:26:21.879 by Quints. 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This 0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:26.600 is one I wholeheartedly endorse. I wear the products I 0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:29.800 really like it. I can find my comfort zone here 0:27:30.000 --> 0:27:33.520 literally what I'm comfortable wearing and comfortable ap peering in 0:27:33.760 --> 0:27:37.720 on air. So refresh your wardrobe with quints. Go to 0:27:37.840 --> 0:27:41.520 quints dot com slash chuck c uhck for free shipping 0:27:41.600 --> 0:27:44.120 and three hundred and sixty five day returns. Now available 0:27:44.160 --> 0:27:46.520 in Canada too, so go to q u I n 0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:51.160 CE dot com slash chuck for free shipping three hundred 0:27:51.200 --> 0:27:55.119 and sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck 0:27:55.760 --> 0:28:04.040 use that code. Speaking of unserious people, let's go talk 0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:09.000 about Eric Swallaller and the sort of the fall of 0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:11.639 Eric Swalwell. You know, this is one of those and 0:28:11.720 --> 0:28:15.280 I've seen some back and forth on this. They're shocked 0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:18.119 but not surprised, surprised but not shocked, whatever way you 0:28:18.200 --> 0:28:20.160 want to whatever however you want to use those two 0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:22.800 words interchangeably. Right. We have this all the time. With Trump, 0:28:23.600 --> 0:28:25.920 he finds ways to surprise us, even if we're not shocked. 0:28:25.920 --> 0:28:33.359 With that, he surprises us. But with Swawell, this is 0:28:33.400 --> 0:28:35.600 one of those things you're like, well, everybody kind of 0:28:35.680 --> 0:28:39.920 knew or thought they knew, but the stakes were never 0:28:39.960 --> 0:28:41.720 high enough where you thought it was important to report 0:28:41.720 --> 0:28:45.680 about it. All right, That's the best explanation I can 0:28:45.720 --> 0:28:49.080 give you as a reporter. And you know, do you 0:28:49.200 --> 0:28:51.640 chase every rumor and every politician you hear about, because 0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:53.400 I promise you I've heard a rumor about every single 0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:57.880 politician that's ever remotely thought about running for president. Swawell 0:28:57.960 --> 0:29:02.840 run for president there, and I'm sure ninety percent of 0:29:02.840 --> 0:29:07.680 the rumors are unsubstantiate. The problem is there's always enough 0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:13.520 things that are true that it makes you constantly in 0:29:13.560 --> 0:29:16.600 the back of your head as a political reporter. You know, 0:29:16.680 --> 0:29:20.520 you file the other accusations away. You're like and you 0:29:20.640 --> 0:29:25.840 start to like, you know, look for smoke. A lot 0:29:25.880 --> 0:29:27.600 of times there's no smoke, so you don't keep going. 0:29:29.480 --> 0:29:32.600 And sometimes you know, look, I know you're if you're 0:29:32.680 --> 0:29:35.120 right now still defending Eric Swallow, you'll say, how come 0:29:35.200 --> 0:29:37.320 this is all coming out right when he's you know, 0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:41.920 the front runner. Well, a lot of times people have, 0:29:42.880 --> 0:29:47.720 you know, compartmentalized their bad experiences with somebody until that 0:29:47.840 --> 0:29:50.280 person's back in the news, or until that person's about 0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:52.400 to get even more power, and then they think, whoa 0:29:52.880 --> 0:29:56.719 if I don't speak out now when you know before 0:29:56.840 --> 0:29:59.000 while they're still a chance if they really believe this 0:29:59.120 --> 0:30:03.280 person is too irresponsible to have power. So I think 0:30:03.320 --> 0:30:05.719 you've got to be careful when you're questioning the timing 0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:10.080 of accusations. In some ways, the political campaign season, the 0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:12.840 primary campaign, is exactly when we should be having these, 0:30:13.640 --> 0:30:17.200 you know, conversations. We're trying to find out who these 0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:19.720 people are. Do they have the character to handle the job, 0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:22.200 do they have the qualifications to handle the job? Do 0:30:22.320 --> 0:30:30.960 they have the knowledge to handle the job. So, you know, 0:30:31.080 --> 0:30:34.200 in Swalwell's problem here is that he's only denying a crime. 0:30:34.920 --> 0:30:37.280 I did not sexually assault anybody. He's saying, he's not 0:30:37.400 --> 0:30:43.360 denying that he had a wondering eye. And unfortunately, for 0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:45.920 those of us that have covered Washington for as long 0:30:45.960 --> 0:30:47.480 as we have, there are a lot of Eric Swawall's 0:30:47.480 --> 0:30:50.720 out there. And you can sit here and say, well, 0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:52.880 it's the system that creates it. I think there's some 0:30:52.960 --> 0:30:56.360 truth to that. These sitting senators and sitting members of 0:30:56.440 --> 0:31:00.400 House have these enormous stabs that are just voted to 0:31:00.480 --> 0:31:06.120 keeping them happy, and it just can create a bubble 0:31:06.400 --> 0:31:11.760 or a filter or for the truly weak character. You know, it, 0:31:12.520 --> 0:31:15.320 you know, makes you think more of yourself. You think 0:31:15.480 --> 0:31:17.680 you're above it all, or you think you can get 0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:21.160 away with anything, or you think you're just you think 0:31:21.200 --> 0:31:23.719 your personality is just that magnetic. Why else would all 0:31:23.720 --> 0:31:26.760 these people not be so devoted to you? So you do, 0:31:27.600 --> 0:31:30.960 you know, if you've had you know, it's one of 0:31:31.040 --> 0:31:33.120 those things, if you if you have a little bit 0:31:33.160 --> 0:31:39.040 of of the narcissistic gene in you, the way getting 0:31:39.080 --> 0:31:43.160 elected to Congress in some ways can can amplify it, 0:31:43.240 --> 0:31:47.480 if that's possible. And when you look at some of 0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:53.440 of his mo that the various allegations are out there, 0:31:55.120 --> 0:32:00.680 it right, it's it's sadly familiar, right. He seems to 0:32:00.760 --> 0:32:05.080 be looking for those that look up to him, right, 0:32:05.200 --> 0:32:08.160 that's who he prayed upon, you know. And you could 0:32:08.200 --> 0:32:10.600 say whether it was consensual, and I'm sure in his 0:32:10.720 --> 0:32:15.440 mind it was consensual, but he you know, he's trying 0:32:15.520 --> 0:32:19.440 really hard to say I'm not Bill Cosby, I'm Bill Clinton. Well, 0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:22.239 even that I don't think people accept anymore because there 0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:25.600 was still a power dynamic issue. So you did it, 0:32:25.680 --> 0:32:32.800 You're not You're not sneaking in date rape drugs still 0:32:32.840 --> 0:32:34.680 doesn't mean you're qualified to be the next governor of 0:32:34.760 --> 0:32:38.880 California as far as the American public or the California 0:32:38.920 --> 0:32:48.360 public is concerned. So, you know, in some ways, it's 0:32:48.400 --> 0:32:50.840 a very familiar story. So now let's talk about the fallout. 0:32:52.320 --> 0:32:54.239 I think there's going to be the first thing we're 0:32:54.240 --> 0:32:56.000 going to see is we're going to see Congress. Right, 0:32:56.040 --> 0:32:58.720 You've got two other members of Congress that have been 0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:02.600 who's behavior with women have been an issue, and there's 0:33:02.640 --> 0:33:05.600 been some threats to expel them from Congress. Tony Gonzalez, 0:33:05.680 --> 0:33:08.400 Republican from Texas, who has since dropped out. He pulled 0:33:08.400 --> 0:33:12.680 out of that runoff, but he hasn't resigned from Congress, 0:33:12.760 --> 0:33:15.640 Corey Mills, Republican from Florida. Then you have another member 0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:19.960 of Congress who's accused of essentially stealing money from FEMA, 0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:24.000 and there may be a vote to expel her. So 0:33:24.080 --> 0:33:27.920 we may have like four expulsion votes. You need two 0:33:28.080 --> 0:33:32.520 thirds of a vote to do this. And I'll just 0:33:32.640 --> 0:33:35.400 say I think this is you know, are there's going 0:33:35.480 --> 0:33:38.080 to be political votes of convenience, right, Both parties just 0:33:38.120 --> 0:33:40.960 want to sweep their bad apples under the rug, so 0:33:41.120 --> 0:33:43.480 you may see a vote. Is it one vote? 0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:43.680 Is it? 0:33:43.760 --> 0:33:44.240 Two votes? 0:33:44.320 --> 0:33:44.440 Is it? 0:33:44.520 --> 0:33:48.080 Four votes? Right? Three of them are inappropriate behavior with 0:33:48.160 --> 0:33:52.640 women Tony Gonzalez, Corey Mills, and Eric Swalwell. The fourth, 0:33:52.760 --> 0:33:58.160 Sheila Sherphyllis McCormick, is the one of where she's accused 0:33:58.200 --> 0:34:02.440 of basically stealing COVID money in using it for her campaign. 0:34:03.520 --> 0:34:06.320 She hit the public trial with the Ethics Committee. So 0:34:07.760 --> 0:34:11.520 it is it is certainly politically convenient for both parties 0:34:11.640 --> 0:34:15.440 and for a Jeffreys and a Johnson to almost agree 0:34:15.480 --> 0:34:17.040 to this and just sort of saying, let the will 0:34:17.120 --> 0:34:20.759 of the House happen, whatever happens happens, and they clean 0:34:20.800 --> 0:34:22.800 it up. I will just say this the law of 0:34:22.880 --> 0:34:30.399 unattended consequences. One. If the votes fail, and they might, 0:34:31.640 --> 0:34:33.680 there might be other members of Congress who think there 0:34:33.719 --> 0:34:35.879 but for the grace of God go I and who 0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:38.440 may think do and may think they're going to practice 0:34:38.480 --> 0:34:40.440 their own version of the Golden Rule, and they're going 0:34:40.480 --> 0:34:42.840 to do not unto others, what they hope will be 0:34:42.920 --> 0:34:46.319 done unto them. And if they fear that they've got 0:34:46.400 --> 0:34:49.200 something in their past that could come out, what precedent 0:34:49.280 --> 0:34:51.880 do they want to send, so you could have some 0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:54.600 of that, You could have some of it. In the 0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:58.920 other way, where the news of Swawell and Gonzales and 0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:05.880 Mills trigger there's even more accusations and more staffers decide 0:35:05.920 --> 0:35:08.560 if we're going to hold these four accountable, then we 0:35:08.640 --> 0:35:11.760 need to hold these other folks account So it's possible. 0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:15.000 It's an important moment for Congress to sort of draw 0:35:15.000 --> 0:35:17.760 a line and to try to raise the bar because, 0:35:18.360 --> 0:35:22.080 let's be honest, the quality of member of Congress has 0:35:22.120 --> 0:35:25.920 been going downhill for some time. They're more and more 0:35:25.960 --> 0:35:28.520 of them are not role models. Now you could say, hey, 0:35:28.560 --> 0:35:31.400 they just are you know, a reflection of us. Man, 0:35:31.480 --> 0:35:34.080 They're a perverted reflection of us, because these congressional districts 0:35:34.120 --> 0:35:38.640 aren't fairly reflective of the country. So it's a perverted version. 0:35:38.680 --> 0:35:41.759 It's a fun house mirror version of us. And then 0:35:41.760 --> 0:35:43.200 there's always been a small part of me that we 0:35:43.239 --> 0:35:46.960 as American citizens, you know, we've always punched, we've always 0:35:46.960 --> 0:35:49.359 punched down in Congress. We want to believe that we're 0:35:49.400 --> 0:35:51.600 all better than them, and this is only going to 0:35:51.640 --> 0:35:54.600 be more proof of that. But I am you know, look, 0:35:54.640 --> 0:35:58.480 I think this is going to be it's probably going 0:35:58.600 --> 0:36:02.120 to be swift justice. But it's a version of sweeping 0:36:02.160 --> 0:36:03.919 all this under the rug all at the same time, 0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:09.759 rather than maybe having a better come to you know 0:36:09.840 --> 0:36:16.239 what moment where you say, you know, you know, how 0:36:16.280 --> 0:36:19.560 do we demand a better quality of behavior, How do 0:36:19.680 --> 0:36:22.040 we draw some better lines, and how do we root 0:36:22.120 --> 0:36:24.120 this stuff out sooner? And how do we But it's 0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:28.040 sometimes it's just the nature of the beast. And we 0:36:28.160 --> 0:36:30.160 know we've lived with politicians like this for this long 0:36:31.680 --> 0:36:34.160 and part of it is are we going to hold 0:36:35.000 --> 0:36:38.200 Is Congress going to hold individual members of Congress to 0:36:38.239 --> 0:36:39.759 a higher bar than they hold the President of the 0:36:39.880 --> 0:36:40.440 United States? 0:36:41.280 --> 0:36:41.400 Right? 0:36:41.680 --> 0:36:47.560 That's the uncomfortable shadow that hangs over all of this, folks, Right, 0:36:49.239 --> 0:36:52.640 I mean, think about it. Every single accusation against Mills, 0:36:52.680 --> 0:36:57.680 against Gonzales, against Swawell, and against and even on the 0:36:57.719 --> 0:37:04.520 funding stuff against Sherphyllis McCormick, all of it. There are 0:37:04.560 --> 0:37:07.399 accusations against Donald Trump for versions of this, whether it's 0:37:08.280 --> 0:37:12.680 essentially using government money, using power to enrich himself. That's 0:37:12.760 --> 0:37:16.759 basically been the second term. Never mind the various accusations 0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:20.120 for women, including a civil court that said he was 0:37:20.239 --> 0:37:27.720 credibly accused of rape, of which he still not paid 0:37:27.760 --> 0:37:34.120 the fine that a civil court adjudicated against him. So 0:37:36.400 --> 0:37:40.840 that's also a part of this. That's just like, like 0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:46.040 I said, just hovers over all of this. The real 0:37:46.160 --> 0:37:49.640 question is does this have a I think this ends up, 0:37:50.239 --> 0:37:52.560 you know, sort of, if it's possible to lower the 0:37:52.600 --> 0:37:55.840 approval rating of Congress generically overall, it will. And this 0:37:56.000 --> 0:37:57.960 is a pox on everybody who's running as an incumbent, 0:37:59.239 --> 0:38:01.239 which is why they're going to want to try to 0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:03.880 wash their hands because there's also an Epstein angle to this, right, 0:38:03.920 --> 0:38:06.960 they've done so little on the Epstein front, they better 0:38:07.080 --> 0:38:09.640 make sure they're willing to hold accountable any one of 0:38:09.719 --> 0:38:14.200 their members at a minimum, because of their failure to 0:38:14.280 --> 0:38:16.200 do so when it came to all things Epstein. So 0:38:16.880 --> 0:38:18.560 I think we know what's going to happen here to 0:38:18.600 --> 0:38:20.440 these four members. I do think these votes are going 0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:22.960 to happen. My guess is they all do get expelled 0:38:25.960 --> 0:38:28.280 because of the desperation of the members that are currently 0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:36.560 running to look a little less dirty. But I think that, 0:38:36.680 --> 0:38:38.920 you know, the cynic in me says, hey, this is 0:38:39.440 --> 0:38:42.279 this is this is small stuff, and maybe you could say, hey, 0:38:43.560 --> 0:38:47.239 a small improvement here of trying to raise the bar 0:38:47.400 --> 0:38:51.040 anywhere is better than not trying at all. I grant 0:38:51.080 --> 0:38:55.840 you that, But there are a bunch of elephants in 0:38:55.920 --> 0:38:58.480 the room on these stories that we're not touching, that 0:38:58.719 --> 0:39:00.480 are certainly having a little bit of it back there. 0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:06.200 As for the ubernatorial follow in the obviously the primary 0:39:06.280 --> 0:39:10.400 is coming up. Democrats had been reluctantly rallying around Swallwell. 0:39:10.480 --> 0:39:13.120 And this is all a reflection by the way that 0:39:13.239 --> 0:39:17.680 I do think most California Democrats that are in some 0:39:18.400 --> 0:39:21.719 power have little interest in seeing Tom Stier as their 0:39:21.719 --> 0:39:26.800 standard bearer. And it has been in anybody but Styre 0:39:28.080 --> 0:39:30.880 sort of mindset, right. And so this is why you 0:39:31.000 --> 0:39:34.359 had a whole bunch of folks hoping that Kamala Harris 0:39:34.400 --> 0:39:37.400 would jump in, Alex Padia would jump in, And I 0:39:37.520 --> 0:39:40.800 understand why both of them didn't. If you're not interested 0:39:40.840 --> 0:39:43.000 in the job, don't run. And I think Kamala Harris 0:39:43.040 --> 0:39:46.040 wants one more bite at the apple of president. That's 0:39:46.080 --> 0:39:50.520 been made clear and clear. Alex Padia, he might have 0:39:50.560 --> 0:39:53.600 been able to win the governorship, but he'd be giving 0:39:53.640 --> 0:39:57.799 up a Senate seat for life. Essentially, there's no term 0:39:57.840 --> 0:39:59.640 limits on running for the Senate, there is termal limits 0:39:59.640 --> 0:40:03.000 on running for governor, and maybe he wants to spend 0:40:03.000 --> 0:40:05.320 the next twenty years in the Senate. Ditto Adam Scheff. 0:40:08.120 --> 0:40:12.279 And then there's another uncomfortable aspect of I'm just I've 0:40:12.360 --> 0:40:14.399 been constantly trying to figure out why is this field, 0:40:14.920 --> 0:40:18.200 excuse me, why is this California gubernatorial field so weak? 0:40:20.880 --> 0:40:22.719 I think there's a whole bunch of people that don't 0:40:22.760 --> 0:40:25.520 want the job, that don't think the job is worth having. 0:40:25.800 --> 0:40:30.080 In the first time after news now I've explained to 0:40:30.080 --> 0:40:33.920 you why I think some major Democrats were against. I 0:40:34.000 --> 0:40:36.040 think another is that there's been sixteen straight years of 0:40:36.080 --> 0:40:40.200 democratic governorship of rule of the governorship. There is going 0:40:40.239 --> 0:40:43.759 to inevitably be fatigue on Democrats. So the likelihood that 0:40:43.880 --> 0:40:46.799 the next governor was at best going to get one 0:40:46.920 --> 0:40:51.640 term might not survive a recall, I think was quite 0:40:51.719 --> 0:40:56.520 high and quite likely. So that may explain why some 0:40:56.600 --> 0:40:58.960 people didn't want to do it. Then think about the reality, 0:40:59.320 --> 0:41:03.239 right the next governor is going to be dealing with 0:41:03.600 --> 0:41:07.840 a very active presidential campaign of a former California governor, 0:41:07.880 --> 0:41:11.440 Gavin Newsom, and he'll be high profile, and he'll be 0:41:11.600 --> 0:41:14.439 running on what he believes as his record that will 0:41:14.480 --> 0:41:19.000 be questioned. It will be a constant sort of. It 0:41:19.080 --> 0:41:23.359 will make the the pr side of running the state 0:41:23.680 --> 0:41:32.440 a little bit harder. If you want to hit Gavin 0:41:32.520 --> 0:41:35.560 for not having an air apparent, I think it's a 0:41:35.600 --> 0:41:38.200 fair hit. I'm now I know why he didn't. He 0:41:38.239 --> 0:41:41.080 didn't like it when he sort of got pushed aside. 0:41:41.719 --> 0:41:44.160 You know, I think he his feeling was let let 0:41:44.200 --> 0:41:46.560 a thousand flowers bloom because he wants He didn't like 0:41:46.600 --> 0:41:48.160 the way he was treated. He was sort of forced 0:41:48.200 --> 0:41:50.760 await his tournament. Then he had a run for Lieutenant governor, 0:41:50.800 --> 0:41:54.480 and then and then the you know, the sea's parted 0:41:54.520 --> 0:41:59.160 for him essentially, but he didn't he didn't really have 0:41:59.360 --> 0:42:08.200 an air parent. But now they've got a real problem Becauesswallwell, 0:42:08.280 --> 0:42:12.440 obviously that candidacy is dead, whether he sees the light 0:42:12.480 --> 0:42:16.160 and drops out or not. As another story, everybody that 0:42:16.680 --> 0:42:22.880 was anybody who has pulled their endorsement there if Tom Steyer. 0:42:23.360 --> 0:42:25.480 I just look at all the money Toms Tire has 0:42:25.480 --> 0:42:29.680 spent to promote Tom Steyer, especially in the state of California, 0:42:30.800 --> 0:42:33.560 and when you look on the ROI of the amount 0:42:33.600 --> 0:42:37.160 of money he spent and the translation that money and 0:42:37.239 --> 0:42:39.839 that how much money that has translated to support for him, 0:42:40.320 --> 0:42:42.480 It is one of the worst investments you could ever have. 0:42:44.080 --> 0:42:45.840 I mean the amount of money he spent. He should 0:42:45.840 --> 0:42:47.600 he's already be and they should be in first place, 0:42:47.680 --> 0:42:55.200 up by ten over anybody. Unless the dogs don't like 0:42:55.280 --> 0:42:58.520 the dog food. One of the old axioms. Sometimes the 0:42:58.560 --> 0:43:01.000 dogs don't like the dog food. It doesn't matter what 0:43:01.080 --> 0:43:03.080 the brand says. It doesn't matter how much money you 0:43:03.120 --> 0:43:05.759 spent on advertising. The dogs won't eat your dog food 0:43:06.440 --> 0:43:11.480 if it ain't alpo or it ain't whatever, right, And 0:43:11.560 --> 0:43:14.200 you got to ask yourself. Stire's done all these he's 0:43:14.360 --> 0:43:18.000 just whether. I don't think he comes across very likable. 0:43:19.200 --> 0:43:23.480 I think he's sort of the angry billionaire. Look without 0:43:23.560 --> 0:43:27.200 any charm. Right, Trump has the angry billionaire. You know, 0:43:27.360 --> 0:43:30.759 he's the angry, fake billionaire who used the presidency to 0:43:30.800 --> 0:43:36.400 become a billionaire. But he's got a little charm. And 0:43:36.520 --> 0:43:38.600 in politics you need a little charm. Doesn't matter who 0:43:38.600 --> 0:43:41.600 you are, gotta have a little charm. And Stier's missing 0:43:41.640 --> 0:43:45.640 the charm thing now maybe you can just lean into 0:43:45.680 --> 0:43:49.960 being the a hole billionaire I would if I were him. 0:43:50.120 --> 0:43:53.120 Don't try to be something you're not. Just try that. 0:43:54.040 --> 0:43:56.200 Maybe it works, maybe he gets there, But the point 0:43:56.280 --> 0:44:00.440 is he's pretty much alienated. He is not seen as 0:44:00.480 --> 0:44:02.239 somebody that's easy to work with, which is why they 0:44:02.320 --> 0:44:05.680 doesn't have any major supporters that aren't supporting him without 0:44:05.680 --> 0:44:11.880 being paid by him. Now, he's not the first billionaire 0:44:11.920 --> 0:44:14.680 candidate to pay people to support him, pay influencers things 0:44:14.760 --> 0:44:17.800 like that. That's sort of now. There's a lot of 0:44:17.880 --> 0:44:21.319 influencers that are getting paid by outside actors that don't 0:44:21.360 --> 0:44:24.000 say who they are. I'm not one of them. In 0:44:24.080 --> 0:44:29.160 case you're wondering, I don't think anybody knows which side 0:44:29.200 --> 0:44:37.640 could buy me off very well. But the point is, 0:44:38.680 --> 0:44:41.400 as I just I just look at you know, the 0:44:41.680 --> 0:44:43.680 facts are the facts. Tyra spent all this money and 0:44:43.760 --> 0:44:48.000 it's never translated to anything. So then the question is, 0:44:48.200 --> 0:44:50.720 what does you know If you're Gavin news, some Kamala Harris, 0:44:51.320 --> 0:44:55.919 Adam Schiff, Alex Padilla, foremost prominent Democrats in the state, 0:44:57.040 --> 0:45:00.799 do you all endorse the same person? Does that help 0:45:00.880 --> 0:45:02.480 or hurt them? I think in this unique race, it 0:45:02.480 --> 0:45:07.719 would help them because, you know, because the last two 0:45:07.760 --> 0:45:10.320 Democrats that most of the party wants to see, and 0:45:10.400 --> 0:45:15.640 that's in that slot, or Tom Styron, Katie Porter. So 0:45:16.200 --> 0:45:22.279 if they want somebody else, maybe it's Matt Mayn. You know, 0:45:22.840 --> 0:45:25.040 he's gotten little. He had plenty of resources to get 0:45:25.040 --> 0:45:30.320 into this thing. He's not caught fire. Maybe he's not 0:45:30.400 --> 0:45:33.319 well known enough. Maybe he got in too late. Maybe 0:45:33.360 --> 0:45:34.719 you're just never going to be able to make the 0:45:34.760 --> 0:45:38.480 mayor of San Jose a statewide figure. Okay, I don't know. 0:45:40.200 --> 0:45:43.000 There was one candidate that I do think would have 0:45:43.440 --> 0:45:45.080 would have been their best candidate, and it's the mayor 0:45:45.120 --> 0:45:48.920 of San Francisco, Daniel Lurie. Now he is just there. 0:45:49.040 --> 0:45:51.560 It's a little early, and it could be that some 0:45:51.719 --> 0:45:55.560 of these folks like Caruso, Lurie, maybe even Padilla, maybe Harris, 0:45:55.640 --> 0:45:57.960 maybe they all said, you know what, I'm going to 0:45:58.080 --> 0:46:01.319 run for governor in twenty thirty. I am not want 0:46:01.360 --> 0:46:04.880 to try to follow in this sixteenth Street. You know, 0:46:05.239 --> 0:46:08.239 let me follow somebody that it's in debacle. I don't 0:46:08.239 --> 0:46:10.440 want to be governor. Well, Gavin's running for president, right, 0:46:10.640 --> 0:46:18.360 there's a whole I understand that line of things, but 0:46:18.520 --> 0:46:20.720 they have to avoid a debacle. They've got to find 0:46:21.040 --> 0:46:24.839 a viable candidate. And look, maybe maybe they just say, fine, 0:46:24.920 --> 0:46:26.600 let's die or have it. At least he'll spend money 0:46:26.640 --> 0:46:30.800 on behalf of the ticket. I don't think money is 0:46:30.840 --> 0:46:34.680 the problem though for the California Democrats. So it'll be 0:46:34.760 --> 0:46:37.600 curious to see. I think those four if they choose 0:46:37.719 --> 0:46:40.400 to sort of be their own version of a of 0:46:40.480 --> 0:46:44.800 a of of king and queen makers here but Shift Padilla, 0:46:45.040 --> 0:46:50.120 Harrison Newsom, if they care about the state party and 0:46:50.280 --> 0:46:52.960 try to strengthen, and if they want the eventual governor 0:46:53.680 --> 0:46:58.000 that gets elected to have some credibility when they get elected, 0:46:58.880 --> 0:47:01.520 they probably ought to try to rally behind somebody in 0:47:01.600 --> 0:47:07.440 this primary. I think it could be Javier Bisera. I 0:47:07.480 --> 0:47:09.720 think if it wasn't for the Biden baggage, maybe Beisera 0:47:09.760 --> 0:47:12.040 would be the guy. It's a state ag you know, 0:47:12.239 --> 0:47:17.840 he's got the correct resume, but the Biden baggage is 0:47:17.920 --> 0:47:24.560 not unheavy. I think everybody else looks like they're retreats 0:47:24.680 --> 0:47:29.680 via Ricosa, Katie Porter, all these people that feel like 0:47:29.719 --> 0:47:32.600 they've been trying to you know, sort of the also rants. 0:47:37.160 --> 0:47:38.920 Like I said, I go back. This feels a lot 0:47:39.040 --> 0:47:42.200 like nineteen ninety eight, two thousand and two California politics, 0:47:42.280 --> 0:47:45.759 where none of the big names would run. No Diane Feinstein, 0:47:45.840 --> 0:47:47.680 she still wouldn't run for governor. That was still the 0:47:47.760 --> 0:47:50.480 sort of the hope that some Democrats had, no barber 0:47:50.560 --> 0:47:53.640 boxer running or anything like that, and the lesser known 0:47:54.760 --> 0:47:57.120 sort of nebbish at the time, not everybody was thrilled 0:47:57.160 --> 0:47:58.960 with it. Gray Davis sort of sneaks through because they 0:47:58.960 --> 0:48:02.240 didn't want the They didn't want a rich guy owning 0:48:02.280 --> 0:48:05.360 the party from on the outside. Now, Checki and for 0:48:05.440 --> 0:48:08.839 whatever reason, Jane Harmon didn't take off, you know, I mean, 0:48:08.880 --> 0:48:11.120 I think Harmon and Checky beat each other up and 0:48:11.200 --> 0:48:15.360 it cleared the path for Davis a little bit. But 0:48:15.440 --> 0:48:20.319 I do think this. I think the most likely new 0:48:20.400 --> 0:48:24.759 thing that has happened here is no matter that we 0:48:24.840 --> 0:48:28.280 are likely to have two unpopular figures running for governor 0:48:28.360 --> 0:48:32.400 by November. Steve Hilton and whoever the Democrat is. My 0:48:32.480 --> 0:48:35.040 guess is they'll both be underwater, just like Great Davis, 0:48:35.120 --> 0:48:38.960 Bill Simon twenty two, and whoever becomes governor is just 0:48:39.080 --> 0:48:42.000 swimming uphill. And it's so easy to put a recall 0:48:42.080 --> 0:48:46.120 initiative on there, and if things are south, you know, 0:48:46.200 --> 0:48:48.759 it's one of those things that will be well. It 0:48:48.920 --> 0:48:53.240 will only sort of reinforce the likely weakness of whoever wins. 0:48:54.680 --> 0:48:57.600 But the other unintended consequence to this debacle could be 0:48:59.160 --> 0:49:02.200 that the Democrats and the legislature decide to get rid 0:49:02.239 --> 0:49:04.520 of the all party primary and try to put a 0:49:04.840 --> 0:49:06.680 put a referendum back on the ballot to get rid 0:49:06.680 --> 0:49:09.120 of it. Personally, I hope not. I think all party 0:49:09.160 --> 0:49:13.640 primaries long term are healthier for the system. But the 0:49:13.719 --> 0:49:16.160 two parties have viewed all party primaries always through the 0:49:16.239 --> 0:49:18.120 lens of is it good for them or bad for them? 0:49:18.200 --> 0:49:20.640 And if they think it's bad for them, then they're 0:49:20.719 --> 0:49:22.160 going to fight to get rid of them. And in 0:49:22.239 --> 0:49:25.000 this case, both parties think this all open primary is 0:49:25.000 --> 0:49:28.920 actually bad for them. They've never liked it, and not 0:49:29.200 --> 0:49:32.000 having this type of control over their nominee and over 0:49:32.080 --> 0:49:35.719 the process when you have a tobacco like this, I 0:49:35.920 --> 0:49:38.400 fear is going to make a lot of California Democrats 0:49:38.440 --> 0:49:41.680 decide they don't want this all party primary anymore. So 0:49:41.800 --> 0:49:44.560 I hope that's not the unintended consequence one of them. 0:49:45.120 --> 0:49:48.600 But I fear it could be. All Right, a few 0:49:48.600 --> 0:49:52.680 other quick hitters of a whole bunch of stuff. These 0:49:52.719 --> 0:49:55.799 are just literally things that I've pondering in the back 0:49:55.840 --> 0:49:57.160 of my head, and I thought I would share them 0:49:57.200 --> 0:49:59.760 with you. News that Roger Stone is who saved Tulsa 0:49:59.800 --> 0:50:04.799 Gas does not. Let's just say, if you're still deep 0:50:04.840 --> 0:50:10.400 in the Russia ties to Trump world story, well, the 0:50:11.120 --> 0:50:14.279 two of the top four or five people that have 0:50:15.960 --> 0:50:20.400 had some ties to that world, two of them are 0:50:20.560 --> 0:50:24.880 Telsa Gabard and Roger Stone. I'm not saying anything, but 0:50:25.000 --> 0:50:27.759 it's interesting to me that it took Roger Stone to 0:50:27.800 --> 0:50:35.120 tell Donald Trump not to fire Telsa Gaard. Roger Stone, 0:50:35.160 --> 0:50:37.680 who was mister WikiLeaks, who seemed to know everything that 0:50:37.800 --> 0:50:46.440 was going on there, you know it. Roger anyway, put 0:50:46.480 --> 0:50:48.800 it this way, It's not the best look for this 0:50:48.880 --> 0:50:54.400 administration that somebody with all of Roger Stone's interest in 0:50:54.680 --> 0:50:59.520 questionable and intriguing ties to overseas oligarchs is the one 0:50:59.600 --> 0:51:03.759 telling Trump not to get rid of Tulsa Gabbard. All Right, 0:51:05.800 --> 0:51:09.520 the Wall Street Journal pardon story, the sweeping pardons anybody 0:51:09.560 --> 0:51:11.879 to inter fee from the Oval office. Look, we knew 0:51:11.920 --> 0:51:13.840 this was likely that he would be thinking about this, 0:51:14.320 --> 0:51:17.080 and I'm sorry. This is why those Joe Biden pardons, 0:51:17.160 --> 0:51:19.839 preemptive pardons, were such a huge mistake, because it only 0:51:20.000 --> 0:51:24.360 gives him cover to do exactly this is what Trump 0:51:24.440 --> 0:51:28.360 going to do, worse than what Biden did. Probably and 0:51:28.480 --> 0:51:29.560 I know some of you are going to what are 0:51:29.560 --> 0:51:34.719 you both siding this? Because there is no reward for 0:51:34.880 --> 0:51:39.120 being less bad. I only robbed half of your house. 0:51:39.200 --> 0:51:40.800 I didn't rob all of your house. You're still a 0:51:40.840 --> 0:51:47.880 bad You're still a robber. Be better. This is why 0:51:47.960 --> 0:51:51.160 this was a mistake. Here's the good news. I hope 0:51:51.600 --> 0:51:55.920 this accelerates interest in the constitutional amendment to create a 0:51:56.000 --> 0:52:00.800 congressional nullification on pardons if we've ever needed that in 0:52:01.000 --> 0:52:04.600 place asap. This story better be the trigger for that. 0:52:05.520 --> 0:52:10.960 And then finally there were I have to tell you. 0:52:11.200 --> 0:52:13.680 I want you know the tech world has a real 0:52:13.760 --> 0:52:17.560 problem because the most prominent people in the tech world 0:52:18.920 --> 0:52:22.480 they don't actor behave like the rest of us. And 0:52:22.600 --> 0:52:28.480 when you read this uh Altman Biergra profile in New Yorker, 0:52:29.480 --> 0:52:32.520 and when you read the Lauren Bezos said chez inn 0:52:32.800 --> 0:52:37.960 Say Lauren Sanchez Bezos interview in the New York Times, Man, 0:52:40.040 --> 0:52:45.120 if you didn't need more evidence that the pitchforks are coming, 0:52:45.480 --> 0:52:49.480 and that when the look, it's your own behavior and 0:52:49.600 --> 0:52:55.319 your own sort of borderline sort of compartmentalization of how 0:52:55.600 --> 0:52:59.360 ridiculous you people look, you super wealthy people look, you 0:52:59.480 --> 0:53:02.239 power hung folks look, and then you're going to be 0:53:02.280 --> 0:53:05.120 angry when government's coming at you. Well, government's made up 0:53:05.120 --> 0:53:11.080 of the people. So when the pitchforks come and you 0:53:11.160 --> 0:53:14.560 don't like the level of regulation that's coming, just remember 0:53:15.400 --> 0:53:18.560 only have yourselves to blame, all right? With that, I've 0:53:18.640 --> 0:53:21.120 gone on a while and then some since it was 0:53:21.200 --> 0:53:25.120 two pretty big stories this weekend, but hey, there was 0:53:25.160 --> 0:53:28.440 a lot going on. All of that plus an incredible 0:53:28.480 --> 0:53:30.919 Masters tournament, right, but let me steak it a break. 0:53:30.920 --> 0:53:33.560 When we come back, let's talk Georgia Republican politics with 0:53:33.680 --> 0:53:41.359 Martha Solmer. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought 0:53:41.360 --> 0:53:44.360 to you by Wild Grain. 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Right now. 0:55:01.000 --> 0:55:03.759 Wildgrain is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first 0:55:03.800 --> 0:55:07.719 box plus free croissants for life. Come on when you 0:55:07.840 --> 0:55:11.239 go to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your 0:55:11.280 --> 0:55:14.440 subscription today. That's thirty dollars off your first box and 0:55:14.680 --> 0:55:17.759 free croissants for life when you visit wildgrain dot com 0:55:17.920 --> 0:55:22.240 slash podcast, or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. 0:55:22.680 --> 0:55:30.279 This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Well, 0:55:30.320 --> 0:55:33.279 my guest today is somebody who's coming on. We're going 0:55:33.360 --> 0:55:35.960 to talk a lot about a topic that I'm very 0:55:36.040 --> 0:55:40.800 fascinated with. There's a couple of states that within the 0:55:40.920 --> 0:55:44.000 debate in where's the Republican Party headed? Particularly where's the 0:55:44.000 --> 0:55:49.120 Republican Party headed post Donald Trump? There are two state 0:55:49.280 --> 0:55:52.560 Republican parties that I'm most fascinated to watch. One is 0:55:52.640 --> 0:55:55.960 out west in Utah, and for a variety of reasons, 0:55:56.000 --> 0:55:59.839 and Utah has been a fascinating state to watch as 0:56:00.000 --> 0:56:02.960 sort of the conservative movement has been realigning in which 0:56:03.000 --> 0:56:04.759 way we've seen it's not just Mitt Romney, but we've 0:56:04.760 --> 0:56:07.040 seen you know, you've got one senator in John Curtis 0:56:07.280 --> 0:56:09.680 in one direction of the party, Mike Lee going in 0:56:09.760 --> 0:56:13.239 another direction. But the other state that is seen in 0:56:13.880 --> 0:56:16.000 where the where I think you can't say that the 0:56:16.080 --> 0:56:21.480 Republican Party is just totally trumpified as Georgia. Well, my 0:56:21.560 --> 0:56:25.160 guess there's somebody who works both in Georgia Republican politics, 0:56:25.280 --> 0:56:30.000 talks Republican politics, knows the media landscape. Well. Her name's 0:56:30.080 --> 0:56:32.640 Martha Zalor those of you down in Georgia probably very 0:56:32.719 --> 0:56:35.719 familiar with her, whether it's listening to her podcast or 0:56:36.160 --> 0:56:39.360 listening to her or her talk show in and around 0:56:39.400 --> 0:56:42.879 the Gainesville, Georgia area. And I'm looking forward to talking 0:56:42.920 --> 0:56:45.480 a little Georgia politics. As I was telling my listeners 0:56:45.600 --> 0:56:49.759 last week, Martha, I thought it was interesting that the 0:56:49.960 --> 0:56:53.759 first state to act on a gas tax holiday was 0:56:53.800 --> 0:56:57.520 Georgia and Governor Brian Kemp, and I thought, well, that'll 0:56:57.560 --> 0:57:03.239 be an interesting talking point a hypothetical campaign and say 0:57:03.280 --> 0:57:09.880 the state of New Hampshire. And so anyway, let's just 0:57:09.920 --> 0:57:12.000 say it's just a little taste of where I hope 0:57:12.040 --> 0:57:14.040 our conversation goes. Martha, Welcome to the podcast. 0:57:14.680 --> 0:57:16.880 It's great to be with you, Chuck, it's nice to 0:57:17.040 --> 0:57:18.480 e meet you or whatever. Zoo. 0:57:18.640 --> 0:57:22.640 Yes, absolutely, I mean I am, like I said, I 0:57:23.360 --> 0:57:28.400 call myself a political anthropologist. These days, desperately studying the 0:57:28.480 --> 0:57:32.320 crazy tribes of American politics, right, and we know, and 0:57:32.480 --> 0:57:36.440 it's pretty clear to me that both parties are really coalitions, right, 0:57:36.520 --> 0:57:39.640 there's sort of collections of There is a lot more 0:57:39.680 --> 0:57:43.360 diversity underneath the umbrellas, underneath that red umbrella and that 0:57:43.400 --> 0:57:46.840 blue umbrella. And I think sometimes both parties get defined 0:57:46.960 --> 0:57:49.960 by just one individual or one part of the party. 0:57:51.080 --> 0:57:53.720 And I think what's interesting is george has been sort 0:57:53.760 --> 0:58:00.000 of the one place where conservatives have not been punished 0:58:00.120 --> 0:58:02.080 for swimming in a different direction every now and then. 0:58:02.760 --> 0:58:05.840 And I guess let me start there. What what do 0:58:05.920 --> 0:58:07.680 you what do you make of the fact that the 0:58:07.760 --> 0:58:10.600 Georgia Republican Party and whether it's Marjorie Taylor Green, who's 0:58:10.920 --> 0:58:13.640 I think feels let down by the MAGA movement or 0:58:13.680 --> 0:58:15.880 at least let down by Donald Trump, or it's a 0:58:15.920 --> 0:58:18.960 Brad Raffinsburger, right, who's in a totally another part of 0:58:19.120 --> 0:58:22.880 the party. I know what it looks like from the outside, 0:58:22.920 --> 0:58:24.080 What does it look like from your seat? 0:58:24.760 --> 0:58:29.640 Well, it's interesting you mentioned such of state Raffensburger, because 0:58:30.040 --> 0:58:31.840 you know, he went from the guy that no one 0:58:31.880 --> 0:58:37.240 would have lunch with to winning very decidedly with not 0:58:37.440 --> 0:58:41.360 only Republican votes, but independence and Democrats to in his 0:58:41.480 --> 0:58:44.360 re election in twenty twenty two and is now running 0:58:44.400 --> 0:58:47.720 for governor. And so he's an interesting thing. And he 0:58:47.840 --> 0:58:54.480 did it by going to every lunch, every invitation, Democrat, Republican, Independent, 0:58:54.800 --> 0:58:58.640 and taking every question. I remember, right after the twenty 0:58:58.720 --> 0:59:02.240 twenty election, but Miller and I, Butch Miller was a 0:59:02.280 --> 0:59:05.600 state senator, we had to go face the Republican Party 0:59:05.680 --> 0:59:08.800 for the first time in March of twenty one before 0:59:09.080 --> 0:59:12.480 the world shut down, I mean, while we were still 0:59:12.520 --> 0:59:16.800 in that kind of weird place after COVID. And one 0:59:16.840 --> 0:59:18.840 thing we did is we paid the bar tab because 0:59:18.880 --> 0:59:21.080 it was out of winery, because we didn't want people 0:59:21.120 --> 0:59:23.800 to be mad. Because Butch and I laid out what 0:59:23.960 --> 0:59:26.760 happened with the Georgia election, what the good things were 0:59:26.800 --> 0:59:29.720 and what the bad things were. And it wasn't about corruption, okay, 0:59:29.920 --> 0:59:32.240 it was about something we had been saying since two 0:59:32.280 --> 0:59:35.360 thousand and six that we had a pretty big loophole 0:59:35.480 --> 0:59:38.280 in our rules around absentee ballots. Using a loophole is 0:59:38.320 --> 0:59:41.320 not breaking the law. Using a loophole is not corruption. 0:59:41.880 --> 0:59:44.160 It's just there was a pretty big loophole in how 0:59:44.360 --> 0:59:47.600 absentee ballots could be done. And as Karen Handel, who 0:59:47.680 --> 0:59:50.000 was the Secretary of State when this law was passed, said, 0:59:50.640 --> 0:59:52.760 the Democrats figured out how to drive a mack truck 0:59:52.840 --> 0:59:56.520 through it, and they used the rule to their advantage, 0:59:56.680 --> 0:59:58.880 and that's what ultimately happened with the election. There's a 0:59:58.960 --> 1:00:01.880 lot of Republicans today to still disagree with me about that. 1:00:02.120 --> 1:00:04.280 As early as today on my show when I was 1:00:04.640 --> 1:00:08.080 talking to all the candidates for secretary of State, there 1:00:08.200 --> 1:00:12.440 is one candidate that is looking forward and all the 1:00:12.520 --> 1:00:14.840 rest of the secretary of state candidates on the Republican 1:00:14.920 --> 1:00:17.440 side are looking backward. And I just don't think that's 1:00:17.480 --> 1:00:20.520 the answer for anything. Number one. But yeah, George has 1:00:20.520 --> 1:00:23.920 been very interesting, and there are these different buckets, and 1:00:24.600 --> 1:00:28.720 I just wouldn't allow myself to be categorized. I mean, 1:00:28.840 --> 1:00:31.400 I supported President Trump. I voted for him three times. 1:00:31.520 --> 1:00:34.800 I gave money in twenty twenty to his campaign. I 1:00:34.920 --> 1:00:36.560 was one of those people that got caught up in 1:00:36.640 --> 1:00:38.320 that wind red thing where it was supposed to be 1:00:38.360 --> 1:00:40.200 a one time donation and they tried to take it, 1:00:40.720 --> 1:00:44.320 you know, every month. And so I have been a 1:00:44.440 --> 1:00:48.160 supportive person. Don't like everything that he does. I think 1:00:48.200 --> 1:00:51.720 he's the reason why we have two Democrat senators. He 1:00:51.880 --> 1:00:56.000 came to Georgia for that runoff and he told people 1:00:56.080 --> 1:00:58.240 you can vote, which your vote might not count, and 1:00:58.320 --> 1:01:02.440 four hundred thousand Republicans stay home, and you know, and 1:01:02.560 --> 1:01:04.880 it was heaviest in the two cities he went to. 1:01:05.720 --> 1:01:08.880 So I've had my own issues with President Trump related 1:01:08.920 --> 1:01:10.920 to that. I don't get invited to any of the parties, 1:01:11.000 --> 1:01:12.840 I don't get to do any of that stuff. But 1:01:12.960 --> 1:01:16.640 I have met him several times. And everybody in Georgia 1:01:16.680 --> 1:01:18.920 is not a Trump Republican, but they are. There are 1:01:19.040 --> 1:01:22.840 more Republicans than Democrats, and if we get out to vote, 1:01:22.880 --> 1:01:25.320 we will still win. But we've had a tough run 1:01:25.520 --> 1:01:29.200 the last six statewide elections. Now a lot of more 1:01:29.280 --> 1:01:32.840 special elections to be fair, but you can't deny we've 1:01:32.880 --> 1:01:35.960 had six races that have gone Democrat in the last 1:01:36.080 --> 1:01:40.920 three years, and you know, we can't continue to run 1:01:41.000 --> 1:01:44.920 the state the way we want to as Republicans if 1:01:44.960 --> 1:01:46.160 we continue to lose races. 1:01:46.880 --> 1:01:50.240 How'd you handle David Purdue primarying Brian Kemp. 1:01:51.960 --> 1:01:54.360 It was very difficult because I had because. 1:01:54.120 --> 1:01:57.000 You were part of both both the administers both for 1:01:57.120 --> 1:01:58.040 both of them, right, So. 1:01:58.360 --> 1:02:01.720 I had already asked David if he was running. He 1:02:01.800 --> 1:02:04.840 said no, And so I had worked for Kemp in 1:02:04.920 --> 1:02:08.200 his first election, and so I committed to Brian Kemp. 1:02:08.480 --> 1:02:10.840 And so I got an invitation to go to dinner 1:02:11.400 --> 1:02:13.680 I want with Senator Purdue. I won't discuss what we 1:02:13.760 --> 1:02:16.760 talked about other than he was running, and you know, 1:02:17.600 --> 1:02:22.280 I said, I'm already committed, and so you know I can't. 1:02:22.640 --> 1:02:24.040 You know, I'm not going to take that away. And 1:02:24.120 --> 1:02:25.720 you said you weren't going to run, And then I 1:02:25.880 --> 1:02:26.360 saw that. 1:02:28.960 --> 1:02:29.440 That he was. 1:02:29.760 --> 1:02:31.680 He had made his mind up, and I said, don't 1:02:31.760 --> 1:02:35.000 talk about the election. Talk about something like both of 1:02:35.080 --> 1:02:38.240 his parents were public school teachers. Fifty five percent of 1:02:38.280 --> 1:02:40.840 the budget Georgia is paid on it is spent on education. 1:02:41.440 --> 1:02:42.960 You know, we have a lot of work to do 1:02:43.080 --> 1:02:46.320 on education, so I said. But he didn't listen to me. 1:02:46.480 --> 1:02:48.640 But I still got the first interview with him when 1:02:48.720 --> 1:02:52.040 he when he announced his race, and I just navigated 1:02:52.240 --> 1:02:55.600 being fair, you know, to both sides, all the way throughout. 1:02:55.760 --> 1:02:58.600 But he was, you know, it was an embarrassing loss. 1:02:59.280 --> 1:03:00.520 It was seventy's he doing. 1:03:00.640 --> 1:03:03.520 Now I mean, I have to tell you, I'm gonna look. 1:03:03.560 --> 1:03:07.960 I interviewed him during his first run in twenty fourteen. 1:03:08.280 --> 1:03:10.160 It was right when I was just starting to meet 1:03:10.200 --> 1:03:12.680 the press, and we did this fun little bus tour 1:03:12.720 --> 1:03:15.640 of battleground states, and Georgia was one of them. 1:03:17.080 --> 1:03:18.440 I was working on that campaign. 1:03:18.800 --> 1:03:23.920 I remember interviewing both that was Michelle nun Race I believe, right, yes, right, 1:03:24.760 --> 1:03:30.880 and David Perdue. And I'll tell you you know, and 1:03:30.960 --> 1:03:32.840 I say this, this is not meant to anything other 1:03:32.920 --> 1:03:35.520 than an easy descriptor for sort of the average viewer 1:03:35.560 --> 1:03:37.640 and listener here, which is he struck me as a 1:03:37.680 --> 1:03:42.040 Mett Romney Republican, a businessman, Republican, the chamber of whatever. 1:03:42.720 --> 1:03:44.720 And I say this, it's not meant to be disparaging, 1:03:44.760 --> 1:03:46.880 It's not meant to be anything other than descriptive that 1:03:47.720 --> 1:03:51.479 this is a pro business guy, this is a small 1:03:51.520 --> 1:03:56.840 government guy. And I just look at it. I don't 1:03:56.840 --> 1:03:58.360 want to put words in your mouth that he kind 1:03:58.400 --> 1:04:01.680 of lost his political identity in getting caught up in 1:04:01.720 --> 1:04:04.280 Trump world. And this is he's not alone. I watch 1:04:04.320 --> 1:04:08.440 a lot of Republicans who had a set of a 1:04:08.520 --> 1:04:11.320 set of things that they had been advocating for and 1:04:11.440 --> 1:04:15.200 been principled about for decades. They get caught up in 1:04:15.920 --> 1:04:18.120 the Trump sort of whatever you want to call it, right, 1:04:18.240 --> 1:04:21.200 the whirlpool, whatever it is, and you just the vortex, 1:04:22.040 --> 1:04:25.000 and they sort of lose their own identity. Governor Kemp 1:04:25.160 --> 1:04:29.520 never did, Senator did? How did Senator Purdue get caught 1:04:29.560 --> 1:04:30.280 up in this so much? 1:04:30.400 --> 1:04:32.680 You know, I think it's interesting because in this social 1:04:32.760 --> 1:04:35.720 media world to live in where everything's under a microscope, 1:04:35.760 --> 1:04:38.120 I would argue more than ever, I think the kind 1:04:38.120 --> 1:04:40.520 of corruption that's going on now has been going on forever. 1:04:40.880 --> 1:04:43.320 We just didn't see it the way we see it now. 1:04:43.480 --> 1:04:45.480 Look, it's an MR. I look at the Trump era 1:04:45.640 --> 1:04:47.680 in this one way, in a very positive way, which 1:04:47.680 --> 1:04:50.680 is it's been an MRI for me, meaning I have 1:04:50.880 --> 1:04:55.160 learned a lot about people, good bad and otherwise, institutions 1:04:55.240 --> 1:05:00.040 good bad or otherwise, about the problems in our what 1:05:00.120 --> 1:05:03.600 I would call our small D democratic infrastructure that need fixing, 1:05:03.720 --> 1:05:06.320 that have been exposed. You know, you pointed out one 1:05:06.520 --> 1:05:09.600 in Georgia politics there about you know, how should absentee 1:05:09.680 --> 1:05:13.080 battling work? Is this a loophole? You know? I think 1:05:13.200 --> 1:05:15.680 the point is is that he's an MRI, and if 1:05:15.720 --> 1:05:17.760 you're if you care about the country, then use it 1:05:17.840 --> 1:05:20.480 for good. And that's been my choice. But it's been 1:05:20.520 --> 1:05:22.040 an MRI for a lot of people. 1:05:22.560 --> 1:05:27.520 Well, Senator Purdue was more of an establishment guy, but 1:05:27.640 --> 1:05:29.960 he did get on the Trump train very early. He 1:05:30.280 --> 1:05:32.880 liked Donald Trump, he liked the way he did things, 1:05:33.280 --> 1:05:36.800 and he actually when Trump was thinking about running after 1:05:37.480 --> 1:05:40.520 he won Purdue one in twenty fourteen, one of the 1:05:40.560 --> 1:05:43.960 first meetings that Trump took was with Purdue up in 1:05:44.040 --> 1:05:47.360 Trump Tower to talk about how he is a businessman. 1:05:47.520 --> 1:05:51.040 Won and so they kind of hit it off in 1:05:51.160 --> 1:05:54.480 that area. Well, he's currently the ambassador to China, so 1:05:55.160 --> 1:05:57.960 he you know, he is serving there and he has 1:05:58.040 --> 1:05:59.280 been extremely loyal. 1:06:00.200 --> 1:06:02.160 Sort of ironic. I don't mean it. I remember the 1:06:02.200 --> 1:06:04.400 whole His relationship with China was such a huge part 1:06:04.440 --> 1:06:06.400 of that first campaign, if I remember it. 1:06:06.840 --> 1:06:10.320 And you know, I this is my again, my personal opinion, 1:06:10.440 --> 1:06:13.520 and I'm always transparent. I don't think that Donald Trump 1:06:13.640 --> 1:06:16.960 was loyal to him, Okay, because he did not really 1:06:18.000 --> 1:06:20.440 help him as much in his runoff. He did not 1:06:20.520 --> 1:06:21.600 help at all on the runoff. 1:06:21.760 --> 1:06:24.200 Oh I think Look, I thought your analysis. The fact 1:06:24.320 --> 1:06:28.320 is Democrats got the Senate majority because of Donald Trump. Yeah, 1:06:28.800 --> 1:06:31.600 and it's buzzy campaign. If he doesn't show up on 1:06:31.760 --> 1:06:37.120 January fifth and campaign in Georgia, maybe it's one Senate 1:06:37.200 --> 1:06:38.760 seat that goes, not both. 1:06:39.040 --> 1:06:42.240 Because we forget and when we talk about the Georgia landscape, 1:06:42.320 --> 1:06:45.200 I don't think that it's a done deal that a 1:06:45.280 --> 1:06:47.840 Democrat's going to win a statewide race this time again 1:06:48.280 --> 1:06:50.080 for the Senate races, but I don't think it's a 1:06:50.120 --> 1:06:53.720 done deal because Center oss Off only won by fifty 1:06:53.760 --> 1:06:57.360 thousand votes. Brian Camp only won by one hundred thousand 1:06:57.440 --> 1:07:01.880 votes in his second election, So it's tight margins, okay. 1:07:02.440 --> 1:07:07.960 And we have these four counties Fulton to cab Gwinnette, 1:07:08.560 --> 1:07:13.280 and Cobb that are Democrat counties, okay, but they are 1:07:13.360 --> 1:07:16.600 about a million and a half Republican votes. So in 1:07:16.680 --> 1:07:19.320 those four counties there's about it's about two to one 1:07:19.480 --> 1:07:22.560 Democrat to Republican, So there's about a million and a 1:07:22.600 --> 1:07:23.880 half for Publican votes. 1:07:24.120 --> 1:07:26.840 Their vote counts just as much in a statewide race. 1:07:27.360 --> 1:07:30.400 Absolutely, and so our when you're dealing with margins of 1:07:30.440 --> 1:07:33.160 one hundred thousand and fifty fifty thousand for the Democrats, 1:07:33.200 --> 1:07:35.880 for the Senate one hundred thousand for the Republicans for governor. 1:07:36.480 --> 1:07:39.400 You have a guy like say Mike Thurman, who is 1:07:39.520 --> 1:07:42.800 a moderate Democrat who's running in this race. He's the 1:07:42.880 --> 1:07:45.240 only moderate Democrat running in the race, and who knows 1:07:45.280 --> 1:07:48.280 if he's got a chance. But he's well liked in 1:07:48.440 --> 1:07:52.000 those four counties because he served as Dacab County CEO. 1:07:52.280 --> 1:07:55.240 He was the superintendent of Dacab County schools. And if 1:07:55.280 --> 1:07:57.200 he you're going to laugh at this, but it's true. 1:07:57.520 --> 1:08:00.880 If he can peel off a hunt or two hundred 1:08:00.920 --> 1:08:04.120 thousand squishy Republican women who were the people I have 1:08:04.240 --> 1:08:06.920 to deal with in my work all the time, because 1:08:06.960 --> 1:08:09.320 they voted for Clinton in ninety six, they voted for 1:08:10.640 --> 1:08:14.640 for I've forgotten Gore, in two thousand they voted for Bush, 1:08:14.680 --> 1:08:17.599 and four they voted for Obama, and eight they voted 1:08:17.640 --> 1:08:20.439 for Trump in sixteen, not in twenty but then in 1:08:20.560 --> 1:08:23.360 twenty four. If you can peel off one hundred or 1:08:23.439 --> 1:08:26.439 two hundred thousand on either side, if a Republican can 1:08:26.520 --> 1:08:29.320 do it or a Democrat can do it, there's the 1:08:29.400 --> 1:08:30.120 one who wins. 1:08:31.640 --> 1:08:33.840 Interesting, Well, you go, Republican women. 1:08:33.880 --> 1:08:36.120 You can quote me on that what. 1:08:36.280 --> 1:08:38.719 Makes somebody what do you count as a squish? 1:08:39.800 --> 1:08:44.400 They don't like the style of most negative campaigning, and 1:08:44.520 --> 1:08:49.200 obviously negative can more style than substance, more style than substance. 1:08:50.320 --> 1:08:53.040 They're not as much one issue people anymore. I mean 1:08:53.120 --> 1:08:54.920 it used to be was we could get them back 1:08:55.080 --> 1:08:58.080 on the right to life issue. That's not as much 1:08:58.120 --> 1:08:59.920 of an issue that they want to talk about anymore. 1:09:00.520 --> 1:09:02.240 Actually, let me put a let's put it. Let me 1:09:02.360 --> 1:09:04.040 let me I want to get more into this, but 1:09:04.200 --> 1:09:07.000 I want to ask you a very specific question on abortion, 1:09:07.640 --> 1:09:11.880 because I've been curious that with rogue gone as a 1:09:12.000 --> 1:09:19.040 rallying cry, has that actually made courting Republican Republicans on 1:09:19.160 --> 1:09:23.360 that issue harder because they think the issue solved well, especially. 1:09:23.040 --> 1:09:25.920 In Georgia, it has because we've got Heartbeat Bill, and 1:09:27.680 --> 1:09:30.080 you know, our biggest my as a person who's been 1:09:30.120 --> 1:09:32.759 involved in the movement, I served as the executive director 1:09:32.800 --> 1:09:35.400 of the Georgia Life Alliance. I helped start the Georgia 1:09:35.439 --> 1:09:37.600 Life Alliance, which is a more I don't want to 1:09:37.680 --> 1:09:39.720 use the term moderate, but it was a more reasonable 1:09:39.880 --> 1:09:42.560 right to life group which understood that we live in 1:09:42.600 --> 1:09:44.519 a world where this happens and we want to make 1:09:44.560 --> 1:09:46.479 it and we were more like Clinton, I don't want 1:09:46.520 --> 1:09:49.360 to say that, but more legal and rare as well. 1:09:49.439 --> 1:09:52.320 That's the Clinton that there isn't a Democrat that says 1:09:52.360 --> 1:09:58.439 that anymore. But it was his mantra was safe, uh, legal, 1:09:58.520 --> 1:09:59.760 safe and rare or something like that. 1:10:00.840 --> 1:10:03.479 And so for me, my biggest issue related to the 1:10:03.520 --> 1:10:07.880 life issue now is that right now most abortions are 1:10:07.920 --> 1:10:12.320 done through the clinic, the chemical abortion over the you know, 1:10:12.479 --> 1:10:15.680 the abortion hill that they like to call it. And 1:10:16.120 --> 1:10:18.040 the problem with that is it has a seven percent 1:10:18.160 --> 1:10:21.880 complication rate. It has a seven percent complication rate, which 1:10:21.960 --> 1:10:24.400 today the FDA would never approve something like that, not 1:10:24.920 --> 1:10:28.040 because of Trump, but because most anything over four percent 1:10:28.160 --> 1:10:32.080 complication rate. And what I'm trying to get accomplished, not 1:10:32.240 --> 1:10:34.560 just in Georgia but across the country is that you 1:10:34.680 --> 1:10:36.840 need to see a doctor. You shouldn't just take it, 1:10:37.080 --> 1:10:39.760 not do it. In twenty twenty four, there were a 1:10:39.760 --> 1:10:43.240 couple of women who died that were used in ads, 1:10:43.920 --> 1:10:45.439 you know, because they said it was because of the 1:10:45.479 --> 1:10:47.960 Heartbeat Bill. It wasn't that, it was that they didn't 1:10:48.000 --> 1:10:50.840 go to a doctor. And all you need to know 1:10:51.120 --> 1:10:53.800 about that that's the safer way to do things, is 1:10:53.840 --> 1:10:56.240 that planned parenthood requires you to come back the next 1:10:56.320 --> 1:10:59.600 day to be sure everything's okay. And so for me, 1:10:59.680 --> 1:11:02.439 it's a health a women's health issue. And I tell you, 1:11:02.479 --> 1:11:05.559 I've had such a hard time getting Democrat women. They'll 1:11:05.600 --> 1:11:07.519 agree with me in the meetings, but then when we 1:11:07.680 --> 1:11:09.600 have to go out and talk about legislation because I 1:11:09.680 --> 1:11:12.160 help with things like that, can't get them to come along. 1:11:12.240 --> 1:11:15.599 But I feel encouraged because after my heart attack, which 1:11:15.720 --> 1:11:17.479 was the reason why we didn't get together the last 1:11:17.560 --> 1:11:21.479 time I got was honored by a group of women 1:11:21.560 --> 1:11:25.519 at the Georgia Legislature last week, mainly for surviving but 1:11:25.640 --> 1:11:29.320 also for using my platform to talk about women's heart health. 1:11:30.040 --> 1:11:34.120 And it was Democratic women that did that initiative. So 1:11:34.160 --> 1:11:36.519 that makes me feel good. Because I'm a conservative, I'm 1:11:36.560 --> 1:11:39.400 not apologetic about it. I think our ideas are better. 1:11:39.720 --> 1:11:41.519 But I've always worked with everybody. 1:11:50.479 --> 1:11:53.280 So let's go back to this descriptor of squish and 1:11:53.479 --> 1:11:59.519 substance versus style, because I I you know, let me 1:11:59.680 --> 1:12:03.240 ask a different way. What do you think we're polarized 1:12:03.240 --> 1:12:05.960 as a country? Right? We're pretty evenly divided Georgia's as 1:12:06.040 --> 1:12:09.320 good of an example of this as anything. Right, This 1:12:09.479 --> 1:12:12.599 is a I'm with you. I think that it's slightly 1:12:12.720 --> 1:12:16.160 right leaning. Right, it's light like I consider Georgia light ping. 1:12:16.320 --> 1:12:18.800 But maybe I'm wrong, maybe it is deep purple. Okay, 1:12:18.960 --> 1:12:22.080 so we'll we'll find out for sure over the we'll 1:12:22.120 --> 1:12:24.320 know for sure after Trump leaves. Right, it could be 1:12:24.400 --> 1:12:27.640 that this is a Trump hangover type of thing, but 1:12:27.800 --> 1:12:32.760 my instinct has been that it's that I'm surprised at 1:12:32.760 --> 1:12:35.880 ours off strength. Let me put it that way so far, 1:12:36.000 --> 1:12:38.800 and we'll find out when there's a's a nominee. But 1:12:38.920 --> 1:12:43.000 in this larger question, right, America is divided? If Alexis 1:12:43.040 --> 1:12:45.479 Detokfeld came back to life right and was trying to 1:12:45.520 --> 1:12:49.560 study America again and write about democracy in America, what 1:12:49.680 --> 1:12:52.400 would you tell him that we're divided about? What is 1:12:52.520 --> 1:12:55.439 this big issue? In the nineteenth century, we knew what 1:12:55.479 --> 1:12:58.400 we were divided about. There was a specific thing this 1:12:58.560 --> 1:13:02.000 country was divided about. It is hard for me to 1:13:02.080 --> 1:13:05.839 say there's this one thing we're divided about. But it's 1:13:05.840 --> 1:13:08.720 almost more of a feeling. Right, we know it, and 1:13:08.840 --> 1:13:10.680 someone will say, well, it's culture, okay, but what is 1:13:10.800 --> 1:13:13.640 what would you how would you describe the divide in 1:13:13.720 --> 1:13:16.599 America today and what animates well? 1:13:16.680 --> 1:13:19.560 And I would also note that Georgia is a we 1:13:19.640 --> 1:13:21.400 don't register by party, right, and. 1:13:21.560 --> 1:13:27.160 So I think personally I think party registration. I think 1:13:27.200 --> 1:13:30.120 it's great. But if you us as a voter, can 1:13:30.479 --> 1:13:33.360 just register and pick the primary we want to participate in. 1:13:33.800 --> 1:13:37.439 And independence are growing in Georgia, or people that call 1:13:37.520 --> 1:13:40.680 themselves independence are growing in Georgia. I think independents are 1:13:40.680 --> 1:13:43.639 actually just disaffective Republicans, but that's. 1:13:43.520 --> 1:13:46.600 Just me, but I think they're disaffected. I think some 1:13:46.720 --> 1:13:50.280 of them are disaffected Democrats. I think I think the independent. 1:13:50.360 --> 1:13:52.240 I can tell you what I feel as an independent, 1:13:52.280 --> 1:13:55.479 which is I don't feel comfortable. Either party doesn't really 1:13:55.520 --> 1:13:58.560 represent everything I believe in, but I'm not ready to 1:13:58.600 --> 1:13:59.479 throw them both out either. 1:14:00.080 --> 1:14:02.519 Right. I'm going to answer your question, but I want 1:14:02.520 --> 1:14:04.280 to tell you about someone. There's a guy named Justin 1:14:04.320 --> 1:14:08.040 Gibney that was a Democratic operative. He became a pastor, 1:14:08.640 --> 1:14:11.479 and I wouldn't say he's left the Democratic Party, but 1:14:11.560 --> 1:14:14.680 he's more in that. I'm uncomfortable because he leads a 1:14:14.720 --> 1:14:19.680 group of urban Christian blaques and who do things, and 1:14:19.720 --> 1:14:22.160 they call it the and campaign instead of saying, but 1:14:22.520 --> 1:14:26.200 you say and and and he said, we agree with 1:14:26.360 --> 1:14:29.960 Republicans about the social issues, the cultural issues, but we 1:14:30.040 --> 1:14:32.320 don't like the way they talk about them, and we 1:14:32.520 --> 1:14:37.400 disagree with how the Democratic Party looks at family and 1:14:37.520 --> 1:14:41.160 I think I think the big issue is the difference 1:14:41.240 --> 1:14:45.840 between I'm going to sound so eighties when I say 1:14:45.920 --> 1:14:50.360 family values, but it's about traditional family values versus this 1:14:50.600 --> 1:14:53.840 far left progressive like you see at these protests. I mean, 1:14:54.120 --> 1:14:55.960 I saw a woman on one of the protests and 1:14:56.000 --> 1:14:58.760 no King's processes. I've been protested for everything since the 1:14:58.920 --> 1:15:02.280 nineteen sixties, and I'm thinking to myself, you know, I 1:15:02.439 --> 1:15:04.120 know these women. I used to and I'm going to 1:15:04.160 --> 1:15:05.680 get in trouble for this. I used to say, the 1:15:05.720 --> 1:15:07.559 meanest people on the face of the earth are old 1:15:07.600 --> 1:15:10.680 white Democrat women that I never got yelled at by 1:15:10.760 --> 1:15:13.200 Republican women like I have by Democrat women. 1:15:13.720 --> 1:15:16.600 And I just think that what. 1:15:16.760 --> 1:15:20.640 Separates us are these are not so much abortion or 1:15:21.280 --> 1:15:24.720 same sex marriage or whatever the issues were, but it 1:15:24.960 --> 1:15:29.120 is more of a cultural family, you know, because I 1:15:29.200 --> 1:15:30.840 think there's a lot of people out there, a lot 1:15:30.880 --> 1:15:34.360 of millennials, especially that have put off having families, that 1:15:34.479 --> 1:15:36.559 have put off all these things. They thought they were 1:15:36.600 --> 1:15:38.439 supposed to work and do this and that and the 1:15:38.520 --> 1:15:42.240 other thing. And now they're sitting there with either no 1:15:42.439 --> 1:15:47.240 children or one child, and they feel like life has 1:15:47.720 --> 1:15:50.360 passed them by. And I know, in my own family, 1:15:50.439 --> 1:15:53.519 my youngest daughter, you know, and I agree with her 1:15:53.560 --> 1:15:56.840 about this, is that they've waited and hopefully they will 1:15:57.040 --> 1:16:00.200 have children. And she's very liberal, you know. I mean, 1:16:00.240 --> 1:16:03.320 I raised kids to think for themselves, and I think 1:16:03.400 --> 1:16:07.160 that what happens is is that that we have been 1:16:07.240 --> 1:16:10.479 telling people things they knew were not true about the world, 1:16:11.280 --> 1:16:14.679 and media was a part of it, and this idea 1:16:14.920 --> 1:16:18.200 that happened, and now a lot of people are second guessing. 1:16:18.280 --> 1:16:21.120 But I will say that she's right that she doesn't 1:16:21.160 --> 1:16:23.519 have it as easy as I had it. It is 1:16:23.640 --> 1:16:26.879 harder for her to buy a house. These affordab ability 1:16:26.960 --> 1:16:30.840 issues are real things, and neither party is offering any 1:16:31.320 --> 1:16:35.200 solutions for it. They're just fighting. I mean, this DHS 1:16:35.360 --> 1:16:37.920 thing is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. I 1:16:38.000 --> 1:16:40.920 wrote a column this week on my substack about we 1:16:41.040 --> 1:16:43.799 need to go back to pre gram Redman because before 1:16:43.880 --> 1:16:46.720 that you didn't have shutdowns. The understanding was you're going 1:16:46.760 --> 1:16:49.320 to be grown ups because money is coming into the 1:16:49.360 --> 1:16:52.679 federal government every day check you can continue to pay people. 1:16:53.000 --> 1:16:55.559 Well it is look, I went, now, it's a weapon. 1:16:55.720 --> 1:16:56.360 It's a weapon. 1:16:56.880 --> 1:17:05.480 Well it goes back to is lovely bipartisan the legal opinions. 1:17:05.880 --> 1:17:08.360 One was in Carter's Justice department and one was in 1:17:08.439 --> 1:17:13.120 Reagan's Justice department. Within essentially an eighteen month period, two 1:17:13.160 --> 1:17:17.840 different partisan justice departments made the same analysis about that 1:17:18.080 --> 1:17:21.519 once there's a funding dispute in Congress, then government has 1:17:21.560 --> 1:17:27.120 to cease spending money. It's ridiculous, it's absurd, and it 1:17:27.280 --> 1:17:30.000 is your only Actually, you know, I have a friend 1:17:30.000 --> 1:17:34.000 of mine who's been in a government contractor basically he's 1:17:34.000 --> 1:17:36.920 in this one of those public private areas in the 1:17:37.000 --> 1:17:39.479 world of nukes, Okay, and it's about all he can 1:17:39.520 --> 1:17:41.360 tell me. But the point is is that it's this 1:17:41.479 --> 1:17:45.040 public private and he goes the amount of times they've 1:17:45.120 --> 1:17:47.160 literally had to stop in the middle of a research 1:17:47.240 --> 1:17:52.320 product because of a continuing resolution, Like if people understood, 1:17:52.360 --> 1:17:54.320 he gets he harps on this with me all the time. 1:17:54.320 --> 1:17:56.080 He goes, I wish you guys could meaning us in 1:17:56.160 --> 1:17:58.599 the media could do a better job of explaining how 1:17:58.720 --> 1:18:03.960 even continuing resolutus quote keeping the lights on, actually prevent 1:18:04.080 --> 1:18:07.760 us from doing certain research spending. Sometimes it takes a 1:18:07.800 --> 1:18:09.960 little extra money to figure out something or to be 1:18:10.040 --> 1:18:13.080 able to do something extra. We are sometimes just literally 1:18:13.160 --> 1:18:17.200 waiting in place while we fill out another form or 1:18:17.320 --> 1:18:19.519 wait for something that we know we're going to get 1:18:19.520 --> 1:18:21.800 in the next budget. But in the meantime, we can't 1:18:21.960 --> 1:18:25.000 use spend that money until they officially pass it and 1:18:25.120 --> 1:18:28.000 he goes. We're literally paying people to do nothing, and 1:18:28.720 --> 1:18:32.320 it is just ridiculous the budgeting process in America that 1:18:33.040 --> 1:18:35.599 has put us in this and it incentivizes both parties 1:18:35.680 --> 1:18:36.960 to weaponize the budget process. 1:18:37.560 --> 1:18:39.320 And look, I mean, let's look at something that's a 1:18:39.320 --> 1:18:45.160 little more you know, everyday kind of business other than news. Agriculture. Okay, 1:18:45.760 --> 1:18:47.680 I have people that are friends of mine in the 1:18:47.760 --> 1:18:51.400 agriculture world where they do things like they work on 1:18:51.520 --> 1:18:53.840 vaccines on chickens and they do other things. Well, if 1:18:53.880 --> 1:18:56.400 you're dealing with animals, you can't have two months at 1:18:56.400 --> 1:18:59.880 a time continuing resolutions because the animals have to be 1:19:01.320 --> 1:19:03.040 you know what I mean, these things, so they can't 1:19:03.120 --> 1:19:06.360 start stuff because they're afraid they can't finish it, and 1:19:06.439 --> 1:19:09.559 it's just very inefficient. But you asked me something about Asoff, 1:19:09.640 --> 1:19:11.200 and I just wanted to know if you wanted to 1:19:11.320 --> 1:19:12.400 talk a little bit about him. 1:19:12.920 --> 1:19:16.040 Oh no, I well, what I mean, well, I'm going 1:19:16.080 --> 1:19:17.880 to pick up on something you said you were talking about. 1:19:18.560 --> 1:19:20.360 We were talking about what the divide is and you 1:19:20.439 --> 1:19:25.000 thought it was cultural and unfamily and that, and you 1:19:25.120 --> 1:19:27.560 did something and I totally respect it. But at the 1:19:27.640 --> 1:19:31.320 same time, I feel like it's part of I think 1:19:31.439 --> 1:19:35.920 that each party is viewed as a caricature by folks 1:19:36.000 --> 1:19:39.880 that are in the other party, And like, I sit 1:19:40.000 --> 1:19:43.680 here and I'm like, and sometimes I look at both 1:19:43.760 --> 1:19:45.720 parties as caricatures, and I try really hard not to 1:19:45.840 --> 1:19:48.920 that we're all three dimensional figures. And I kind of 1:19:49.000 --> 1:19:51.720 think that's part of the problem. Meaning you asked, why 1:19:51.960 --> 1:19:53.960 do you feel like some won't cross the aisle to 1:19:54.000 --> 1:19:58.200 help on certain things that you're working on, And I 1:19:58.280 --> 1:20:02.000 think the problem is there's this, and the two parties 1:20:02.080 --> 1:20:04.560 do this a lot. Media can do it too, and 1:20:04.640 --> 1:20:08.200 categorizing creates this guilt by association that the minute you 1:20:08.280 --> 1:20:12.160 work with the other side. Oh yeah, right, you immediately 1:20:12.400 --> 1:20:14.360 are seen as a traitor or a turncoat. 1:20:15.840 --> 1:20:19.160 Was famously said. He said, I don't like c SPAN 1:20:19.360 --> 1:20:21.439 because every time I walk across the aisle to work 1:20:21.439 --> 1:20:23.360 with somebody, somebody's going to use it in an ad 1:20:23.520 --> 1:20:23.960 against me. 1:20:24.640 --> 1:20:26.760 I mean, that is insanity that we have done this, 1:20:26.880 --> 1:20:29.080 because none of us would want to be treated that 1:20:29.200 --> 1:20:34.120 way individually, right, we all actually have. We're all usually 1:20:34.160 --> 1:20:36.479 pretty proud of the relationships that we have in our 1:20:36.720 --> 1:20:41.000 personal lives because they are diverse, they're unique. We all have, 1:20:41.439 --> 1:20:43.479 you know, the family members that we all just we 1:20:43.560 --> 1:20:46.160 don't agree with, and all these other things. And yet 1:20:47.160 --> 1:20:50.200 we then hold the political parties and members of it 1:20:50.760 --> 1:20:54.880 to a standard that does create this caricature element to 1:20:55.000 --> 1:20:59.400 it that I think almost it's what it does, is 1:20:59.479 --> 1:21:01.439 what I think it does, is it turns off the volume, 1:21:01.560 --> 1:21:04.080 meaning people will just stop listening and tell me what. 1:21:04.160 --> 1:21:07.200 You think about this. Because this goes back to historical 1:21:07.280 --> 1:21:09.720 references and things like that. You know, there was all 1:21:09.800 --> 1:21:12.920 this hooplaw about members of Congress not being in their 1:21:12.920 --> 1:21:16.200 districts more, and so the work schedules changed dramatically in 1:21:16.240 --> 1:21:19.040 the last way twenty five years. Maybe, Oh, it's been 1:21:19.080 --> 1:21:19.559 a disaster. 1:21:19.720 --> 1:21:20.720 Personally, i'd think it up. 1:21:20.800 --> 1:21:24.160 But yeah, because what happens is when you when you 1:21:25.920 --> 1:21:29.479 wear a badge of honor of living in your office. Okay, 1:21:30.000 --> 1:21:33.040 and you didn't bring your family up and they did it. 1:21:33.240 --> 1:21:36.240 And granted I used to joke about with Senator Nune 1:21:36.280 --> 1:21:38.960 we were great friends. I said, your kids didn't broke 1:21:39.000 --> 1:21:41.200 in Georgia, they grew up in Washington, DC. And he 1:21:41.240 --> 1:21:44.120 would laugh about it. But what happened with that is 1:21:44.200 --> 1:21:48.120 you made relationships with all different kinds of people. And 1:21:48.240 --> 1:21:49.880 now we don't do that because they come in on 1:21:50.000 --> 1:21:52.679 Tuesday or maybe Monday night and they go back whenever. 1:21:53.400 --> 1:21:55.559 And I think they should work twenty four to seven 1:21:55.600 --> 1:21:57.519 if they're not going to fund the government, and they 1:21:57.560 --> 1:22:00.120 shouldn't be paid for it. But I just think that 1:22:00.840 --> 1:22:04.000 it didn't make those relationships that you normally have, you know. 1:22:04.320 --> 1:22:07.439 And no, I mean it was done out of campaign, like, hey, 1:22:07.520 --> 1:22:09.400 you better be in your district. And then if like 1:22:09.479 --> 1:22:11.920 if you spend too much time in Washington, it was 1:22:11.960 --> 1:22:13.760 somehow a negative And I'm like, well, wait a minute. 1:22:13.800 --> 1:22:17.160 You're the elected member of Congress. That's your job is 1:22:17.280 --> 1:22:20.360 to spend time in Washington. And the fact that We 1:22:20.560 --> 1:22:24.080 turned it into if you spend too much time in Washington, basically, 1:22:24.200 --> 1:22:25.880 if you spend too much time trying to be good 1:22:25.880 --> 1:22:27.960 at your job, we're going to hold that against you 1:22:28.000 --> 1:22:31.880 in a political app and we did. They created the schedule. 1:22:31.920 --> 1:22:35.080 They work three days a week. Right. They fly in 1:22:35.200 --> 1:22:37.400 now Tuesday more. It used to be they came in 1:22:37.439 --> 1:22:39.960 a Monday. Now they've pushed it. Especially if you're on 1:22:40.000 --> 1:22:42.920 the East coast. You grab that six am flight. They 1:22:43.000 --> 1:22:45.200 get there for the Tuesday hearing that they have to 1:22:45.280 --> 1:22:48.680 do and the caucus lunch whatever it is, and then 1:22:48.720 --> 1:22:51.560 the smell of jet fumes by two. I mean, you know, 1:22:51.640 --> 1:22:54.560 they basically work Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Yeah, that's it. 1:22:55.120 --> 1:22:57.640 It's really crazy. And you know, I don't know if 1:22:57.640 --> 1:22:59.600 you knew. I ran for Congress in twenty twelve and 1:22:59.680 --> 1:23:02.799 I got which district in the ninth district of Georgia, 1:23:02.920 --> 1:23:06.000 and I got through the primary, but I lost in 1:23:06.040 --> 1:23:10.160 the runoff to Doug Collins, who's now the Vasa. And 1:23:10.640 --> 1:23:13.720 you know, for me, you know, it's not good for 1:23:13.800 --> 1:23:16.400 a media person to run for office because there was 1:23:16.479 --> 1:23:19.360 ten thousand hours of me talking about issues and. 1:23:19.640 --> 1:23:22.080 This is like reason number seven thousand why I won't 1:23:22.120 --> 1:23:24.200 run for office. But I've had plenty of people I'm like, 1:23:24.400 --> 1:23:26.960 why would I. No matter which party I picked, you 1:23:27.040 --> 1:23:30.519 could find thirty things that would make me a problem 1:23:30.600 --> 1:23:32.960 within that party, and you can pick either one of them. 1:23:33.000 --> 1:23:35.240 I mean, there's no you know, to me, I made 1:23:35.280 --> 1:23:37.800 a choice. This is the choice I make, and this 1:23:37.920 --> 1:23:39.040 is how I want to contribute. 1:23:39.200 --> 1:23:41.880 So yeah, but it was funny because I remember saying 1:23:41.920 --> 1:23:43.920 that the thing I said, yeah, and some poor person 1:23:44.040 --> 1:23:46.040 had to sit down and find the two and a 1:23:46.080 --> 1:23:48.400 half minutes that they were going to use, and somebody 1:23:48.439 --> 1:23:50.000 from the back of rom goes that was a lot 1:23:50.080 --> 1:23:53.200 more than that, Martha. So, and you know, when you 1:23:53.320 --> 1:23:57.560 do what we do, sometimes you're asking questions just to 1:23:57.920 --> 1:24:01.600 get answers, and you're not necessary really saying that you 1:24:02.000 --> 1:24:03.000 believe in whatever. 1:24:03.439 --> 1:24:06.040 It's a devil's advocate. It's all about getting I'm trying. 1:24:06.200 --> 1:24:08.439 I always said this when meet the press, I wanted 1:24:08.479 --> 1:24:11.679 to know two things, actual information and then the why 1:24:12.439 --> 1:24:15.040 yes and the questions. Most of the questions I asked 1:24:15.360 --> 1:24:17.400 were about trying to answer the question of why, well, 1:24:17.439 --> 1:24:19.240 why did you choose to do this? Why do you 1:24:19.320 --> 1:24:22.439 believe this? What you know that's because ultimately, if you 1:24:22.560 --> 1:24:24.360 choose to watch to me, if you choose to watch 1:24:24.600 --> 1:24:26.600 a Sunday show, or if you choose to listen to 1:24:26.640 --> 1:24:29.240 a political talk show, you're not interested in the what 1:24:29.439 --> 1:24:32.320 you already know, the what. Right, You're you're trying to 1:24:32.400 --> 1:24:35.479 get a why, because you're it's more than just the information. 1:24:35.600 --> 1:24:38.560 You're looking to understand, well, how did we get to 1:24:38.680 --> 1:24:44.120 this position. You're trying to get more information, more context. 1:24:44.320 --> 1:24:46.840 You're not there just for the what. So you're already 1:24:46.880 --> 1:24:51.080 a pretty well informed person, so you're then if they're 1:24:51.120 --> 1:24:54.120 coming to you, your job or my job is to 1:24:54.120 --> 1:24:55.519 add more context to the situation. 1:24:55.600 --> 1:24:58.280 That's right, that's right. And sometimes you say things just 1:24:58.400 --> 1:25:00.720 to you know, get a reaction and to see what 1:25:00.800 --> 1:25:04.000 people are going to say. And uh, it's and look, 1:25:04.160 --> 1:25:07.599 I long for the time where people work together better. 1:25:08.680 --> 1:25:11.439 We even you know, I'm in a plus twenty six district, Okay, 1:25:11.880 --> 1:25:14.960 so it's it's not an area that's going to likely 1:25:15.160 --> 1:25:19.200 have a Democrat representative. But because the Democrats in Georgia 1:25:19.280 --> 1:25:21.960 see blood in the water, because we've lost several races 1:25:22.520 --> 1:25:26.240 along the way, they I got to give them credit. 1:25:26.320 --> 1:25:30.400 They got we got a contested Democrat primary in our district, okay, 1:25:30.680 --> 1:25:32.880 which they have no chance, they have no chance, but 1:25:33.000 --> 1:25:35.000 they couldn't get a few more Democrats out for the 1:25:35.040 --> 1:25:37.759 state wide races, you know, if there's a good Democrat 1:25:37.840 --> 1:25:38.240 in the race. 1:25:38.320 --> 1:25:40.679 So, by the way, you know who was the godfather 1:25:40.800 --> 1:25:44.200 of that strategy, Howard No, No, no, No. Goes back further, 1:25:44.760 --> 1:25:50.000 there was this young conservative activists from Georgia named Newt Gingrich. 1:25:50.200 --> 1:25:53.559 Oh yeah, and you know, I can't tell you how 1:25:53.600 --> 1:25:56.280 many members of Congress I know over the years who 1:25:56.320 --> 1:25:59.680 told me that they first learned how to run from 1:25:59.720 --> 1:26:03.639 office by listening to Newt gingridg piscept tapes. Yeah, from 1:26:03.720 --> 1:26:07.519 the old Gopak era. But the point was, I remember 1:26:07.560 --> 1:26:10.240 he was a big advaty of this basically fill the tree. 1:26:10.960 --> 1:26:13.760 If you have a candate in every race locally, up 1:26:13.840 --> 1:26:16.320 and down the ballot, well, all of a sudden, you 1:26:16.400 --> 1:26:18.720 have that many more people going out to ask for Republicans, 1:26:19.080 --> 1:26:21.120 having somebody to go vote for a Republican or in 1:26:21.160 --> 1:26:24.639 this case, and I've always you know, there's a pretty 1:26:24.680 --> 1:26:27.720 good correlation if you study this via data, where the 1:26:27.840 --> 1:26:34.320 party that has the fewest empty ballot slots is usually 1:26:34.400 --> 1:26:36.120 the party that's going to win that cycle. 1:26:36.400 --> 1:26:39.479 Yeah, and for fifteen years there were no Democrats on 1:26:39.600 --> 1:26:42.639 the other side running. Okay, And you know it's funny 1:26:42.760 --> 1:26:45.280 because John Ausoff and I have a pretty decent relationship. 1:26:45.360 --> 1:26:47.120 I got him to come on my show. He didn't 1:26:47.120 --> 1:26:48.400 want to come on my show because I worked for 1:26:48.479 --> 1:26:51.839 David Purdue, and I completely understand that. But I convinced 1:26:51.920 --> 1:26:53.920 him by saying, you know what, you might you're not 1:26:54.080 --> 1:26:57.200 just helping yourself, but for the first time in twenty years, 1:26:57.360 --> 1:26:59.800 Democrats are running up and down the ballot in our area. 1:27:00.200 --> 1:27:02.000 If you come on my show, you can help them too. 1:27:02.040 --> 1:27:04.840 And he goes, wow, you're really good. And you know, 1:27:04.960 --> 1:27:07.160 but I did have to apologize for calling him a 1:27:07.200 --> 1:27:09.360 thirty three year old intern, because I did do that. 1:27:09.840 --> 1:27:13.080 But you know, don't you think his youth was an 1:27:13.120 --> 1:27:15.040 asset At the end of the day, it was. 1:27:15.200 --> 1:27:18.000 And I tell you what, he is much better looking 1:27:18.040 --> 1:27:21.960 in person. And when he came to the studio and 1:27:22.280 --> 1:27:24.160 you know, the salespeople got to see him and all 1:27:24.200 --> 1:27:25.880 the people got to see him, and he looks really 1:27:25.920 --> 1:27:28.599 great in a suit. Okay, I'll admit that even though 1:27:28.640 --> 1:27:30.360 you're not. I mean, I'm old enough to be his mother, 1:27:30.520 --> 1:27:33.479 so I can say those things. And when he left, 1:27:33.520 --> 1:27:35.360 all the women were like, Oh, who was that? Who 1:27:35.439 --> 1:27:37.719 was that? It's kind of like the way Tom Graves 1:27:37.880 --> 1:27:40.800 was to mention a Republican too. Tom was a really 1:27:40.880 --> 1:27:44.559 good looking guy and still is, of course, and same 1:27:44.680 --> 1:27:46.600 kind of thing happened. He came in, he had this 1:27:46.760 --> 1:27:50.479 charisma and after he left, all the girls were like, 1:27:50.560 --> 1:27:54.120 who is that? Who was that? And you know, John 1:27:54.280 --> 1:27:57.400 is I think John has a good chance my thing. 1:27:57.479 --> 1:27:59.040 And I said this to him. I said, look, I 1:27:59.080 --> 1:28:01.560 want you to lose. I'm a Republican. I said that 1:28:01.640 --> 1:28:05.360 you've forgotten who you are. Your your your fundraising letters 1:28:05.400 --> 1:28:07.920 sound like you're a far left progressive, but yet your 1:28:07.960 --> 1:28:10.080 press release is say all these things you're doing on 1:28:10.160 --> 1:28:13.280 a bipartisan basis. You know, I said, I'll give you 1:28:13.320 --> 1:28:15.320 a piece of advice that I usually charge people for, 1:28:16.000 --> 1:28:19.400 and it's that don't forget that nobody's going to remember 1:28:19.439 --> 1:28:22.600 the name of your consultant. You know, they only know 1:28:22.720 --> 1:28:26.320 your name, and so so if you if you're doing 1:28:26.439 --> 1:28:29.160 this kind of crazy fundraising emails and I don't know 1:28:29.200 --> 1:28:31.960 how many people actually see those, but I noticed that 1:28:32.080 --> 1:28:35.200 it didn't sound the same. He's not a far left progressive, Okay, 1:28:35.240 --> 1:28:38.439 He's probably kind of like Barack Obama in that I 1:28:38.520 --> 1:28:41.640 think Obama was much more progressive than he governed. He 1:28:41.800 --> 1:28:44.519 kind of governed center left, even though I think if 1:28:44.680 --> 1:28:46.839 he were if he didn't have to negotiate with Congress, 1:28:46.880 --> 1:28:48.639 he probably would have been a lot more far left. 1:28:49.120 --> 1:28:52.920 And the fact that he allowed the the economy it 1:28:52.960 --> 1:28:55.640 grew in about one percent a year. It wasn't gangbusters, 1:28:56.000 --> 1:28:58.280 but it wasn't what it was when he came in. 1:28:59.040 --> 1:29:02.040 So he was a to win some people over because 1:29:02.040 --> 1:29:03.360 of that. But I think if he was left to 1:29:03.439 --> 1:29:08.240 his own devices, he's very progressive. But it'll be interesting 1:29:08.320 --> 1:29:10.599 to see how John does. I kept trying to get 1:29:10.760 --> 1:29:13.599 We have a Palestinian woman who was running for governor 1:29:13.720 --> 1:29:17.200 that is from Decab County, and I was joking. I said, 1:29:17.240 --> 1:29:18.880 I was trying to get her to switch over to 1:29:18.920 --> 1:29:20.760 the Senate race so we could see how far left 1:29:20.840 --> 1:29:23.240 John would go. But she didn't do that. She got 1:29:23.280 --> 1:29:23.880 out of the race. 1:29:32.720 --> 1:29:35.400 Let's talk about that Republican primary for the Senate. I 1:29:35.840 --> 1:29:38.479 will just I will like said it a few times 1:29:38.520 --> 1:29:40.920 on this show, so I will say it again. I 1:29:41.080 --> 1:29:43.960 think the worst name to have in politics in twenty 1:29:44.000 --> 1:29:47.680 twenty six is going to be Congressman. Okay, if your 1:29:47.720 --> 1:29:50.519 first name is Congress. If that's your first name, I 1:29:50.560 --> 1:29:55.680 think it's terrible. I'd rather be coach. I'd rather be 1:29:56.120 --> 1:30:00.160 former football coach than current member of Congress. So I 1:30:00.240 --> 1:30:03.960 don't care what party I'm int, but particularly in this 1:30:04.760 --> 1:30:07.920 political environment we're living in where we don't really have 1:30:08.000 --> 1:30:11.639 a lot of positive views of how Congress has worked 1:30:11.640 --> 1:30:14.639 and all of that. But that's not what the polling 1:30:14.720 --> 1:30:17.040 has been showing. Derek Dooley is having a lot of 1:30:17.320 --> 1:30:20.240 trouble getting traction. Arguably all of the candidates are having 1:30:20.320 --> 1:30:23.640 some trouble getting traction, but not like Dooley. What you know, 1:30:23.880 --> 1:30:29.160 is there any way of doing this without Donald Trump? 1:30:30.800 --> 1:30:35.280 I like and Trump has not gotten involved in the 1:30:35.320 --> 1:30:38.360 Senate race yet, but I don't know if he will 1:30:38.479 --> 1:30:38.640 or not. 1:30:39.439 --> 1:30:42.000 But well, he won't take Kemp's candidate. I know that. 1:30:42.439 --> 1:30:45.439 Yeah, you know that, Derek. I like Derek Moore every 1:30:45.479 --> 1:30:48.920 time I meet him. Derek Dooley, I think he's learning 1:30:48.960 --> 1:30:52.080 as he goes. I think that with Mike Collins, I 1:30:52.160 --> 1:30:56.680 think you cannot underestimate the power of his championing the 1:30:56.760 --> 1:31:01.360 Lake and Riley Act among Republican primary vote. I mean it, 1:31:02.000 --> 1:31:04.120 it was in a you know, and especially in the 1:31:04.240 --> 1:31:08.120 area where most of the Republican voters are in and around. 1:31:08.520 --> 1:31:10.840 You know, he's got a geographic advantage on that. 1:31:11.160 --> 1:31:16.160 And a geographical advantage, and he, you know, he worked 1:31:16.200 --> 1:31:18.280 the halls, and I've told him he needs to show 1:31:18.320 --> 1:31:21.479 more of that side of himself about how he went 1:31:21.560 --> 1:31:24.040 to these offices. He went to every Democrat's office, he 1:31:24.120 --> 1:31:26.600 went to every Republican's office, and he pushed for this 1:31:26.720 --> 1:31:28.960 bill and pushed for this bill and got it passed 1:31:29.560 --> 1:31:34.479 into two Congresses, and you know, it was you can 1:31:34.680 --> 1:31:38.120 underestimate that with primary voters. So I think it's Mike's 1:31:38.160 --> 1:31:41.960 to lose of the primary. Buddy Carter's working very hard 1:31:42.200 --> 1:31:44.760 and I think he's working smart, but it's hard to 1:31:44.920 --> 1:31:49.720 win from that first district, just ask Jack Kingston. But 1:31:49.880 --> 1:31:52.559 I do think that with the with Rick Jackson getting 1:31:52.560 --> 1:31:55.639 in the race on the governor's side, that is another 1:31:55.840 --> 1:31:59.040 outsider that could help Derek Dooley. But I still think 1:31:59.080 --> 1:32:01.440 if the election were real today and be Mike Collins. 1:32:03.120 --> 1:32:06.160 That's interesting. Let's go to the governor's race. Rick Jackson 1:32:06.240 --> 1:32:10.599 really seemed to be a shock to the Bert Jones campaign. 1:32:10.760 --> 1:32:13.760 They did. Was this truly a blind side? They didn't 1:32:13.800 --> 1:32:15.840 know this was coming. There were no whispers. I mean, 1:32:16.160 --> 1:32:18.000 I'll be honest. It certainly looked to me that there 1:32:18.080 --> 1:32:22.200 was no giant killer in the race. And I had 1:32:22.320 --> 1:32:26.040 heard whispers of concerns about Jones and a general fear 1:32:26.160 --> 1:32:28.439 that he couldn't win a general So there had been 1:32:28.560 --> 1:32:33.200 some there'd been some whispers, but the way they acted 1:32:33.320 --> 1:32:35.080 is if they just couldn't believe this happened. 1:32:35.920 --> 1:32:40.000 It was completely quiet. And I know Rick, I've known 1:32:40.080 --> 1:32:43.479 him for years. He brought me into his office when 1:32:43.479 --> 1:32:45.439 I ran for Congress. That's when I first met him, 1:32:46.000 --> 1:32:49.600 and I'd worked with him on foster care stuff. I mean, 1:32:49.640 --> 1:32:52.679 he's been very involved in politics. He's given money to everyone, 1:32:54.040 --> 1:32:56.120 and that's running gotten him a little bit in a 1:32:56.160 --> 1:32:59.120 little bit of trouble. But it was totally unknown, and 1:32:59.240 --> 1:33:03.280 it completely upended the entire race. For three or four weeks. 1:33:03.360 --> 1:33:05.760 Jones's people were completely on their back feet for three 1:33:05.840 --> 1:33:07.840 or four weeks. They're kind of gaining it back and 1:33:08.360 --> 1:33:09.320 a little bit now. 1:33:09.560 --> 1:33:12.240 But they're doing Trump has he still is holding a 1:33:12.280 --> 1:33:12.920 Trump endorsement. 1:33:12.920 --> 1:33:14.320 Oh yeah, he's holding a Trump and. 1:33:14.400 --> 1:33:17.040 It's active, right, It's an active endorsement, right, It's. 1:33:16.920 --> 1:33:17.839 An active endorsement. 1:33:17.880 --> 1:33:19.760 He says, say that because you never know, like Trump 1:33:19.840 --> 1:33:23.680 as the ones where he's endorsed everybody he's endorsed previously 1:33:24.479 --> 1:33:25.759 candidates fudge. 1:33:25.920 --> 1:33:30.160 You know, there are trips back back and forth to 1:33:30.200 --> 1:33:32.840 mar A Lago by Rick Jackson, though, so you know 1:33:33.120 --> 1:33:34.320 it's happening. 1:33:34.920 --> 1:33:37.080 We know the president likes a winner. And if somebody 1:33:37.120 --> 1:33:39.960 suddenly looks like a winner and they're rich, and mister 1:33:40.080 --> 1:33:44.400 Jackson is rich, mister Trump can be persuaded, and he has. 1:33:45.040 --> 1:33:47.200 I tell you, I went to several of his events 1:33:47.920 --> 1:33:50.880 and what is so amazing to me is the women 1:33:51.520 --> 1:33:54.759 that have shown up that are not Republican, not regular 1:33:54.840 --> 1:33:57.719 people that you see at Republican events. They came because 1:33:57.760 --> 1:34:01.439 of the commercials and they love the fact that he 1:34:01.760 --> 1:34:05.120 came from nothing. He lived in techwood homes, you know, 1:34:05.360 --> 1:34:08.920 he lived in the projects. He and he broke the cycle. 1:34:09.200 --> 1:34:11.280 He's had a long term marriage since he was nineteen 1:34:11.360 --> 1:34:15.200 years old. He's got three successful children that are doing 1:34:15.280 --> 1:34:18.000 great and that are running the businesses now for him, 1:34:18.520 --> 1:34:23.759 and he you know he he's made some missteps because 1:34:24.200 --> 1:34:26.879 he doesn't know. You know, he's not a politician. He's 1:34:26.880 --> 1:34:30.640 a guy that's running business. But Bert seems to be 1:34:30.880 --> 1:34:33.320 getting his feet under him again. But I'm sure he 1:34:33.439 --> 1:34:35.760 can't wait for sine die on Thursday, which is the 1:34:35.800 --> 1:34:38.160 last day of the legislative session, because then he can 1:34:38.640 --> 1:34:40.679 raise money and get out on the main trail. 1:34:40.720 --> 1:34:43.160 Again, where's the governor on this? Does he have a 1:34:43.360 --> 1:34:44.080 strong preference? 1:34:44.600 --> 1:34:46.439 No, I don't think all he cares about is getting 1:34:46.439 --> 1:34:48.479 Derek Duley across the finished line. 1:34:48.520 --> 1:34:51.439 So he's got it he is. That is more his 1:34:51.600 --> 1:34:54.360 focus is that center race, really and he's just sort 1:34:54.400 --> 1:34:57.560 of staying above the fray and the governor's And I 1:34:57.640 --> 1:34:58.040 tell you, I. 1:34:58.080 --> 1:35:00.720 Wish that he had run because of Bryan Kempin run, 1:35:00.800 --> 1:35:03.120 we wouldn't have this fruit basket turnover that we've had 1:35:03.280 --> 1:35:05.880 in the Republican Party. We've got about half of the 1:35:06.000 --> 1:35:08.439 Senate running for other offices. We're going to have a 1:35:08.720 --> 1:35:10.920 George is going to look different next year. I just 1:35:11.040 --> 1:35:13.120 don't know, you know, what the makeup's going to be 1:35:13.200 --> 1:35:15.559 because there are so many people running for higher office. 1:35:15.600 --> 1:35:19.840 Then Martha, it is miserable being in Congress right. 1:35:19.800 --> 1:35:22.800 Now, Okay, well, and going from governor to Senate, they 1:35:22.840 --> 1:35:23.360 don't like it. 1:35:23.920 --> 1:35:27.840 It's you talk to any former governor in the Senate, 1:35:28.360 --> 1:35:30.920 and every one of them I've had this conversation. Whether 1:35:30.920 --> 1:35:34.360 it's Lamar, Alexander, Mark Warner, doesn't matter. It doesn't matter 1:35:34.400 --> 1:35:38.519 if a democratic governor Republic. They hate the Senate once 1:35:38.600 --> 1:35:40.559 they've gotten there. And that's why you see, I think 1:35:40.560 --> 1:35:42.720 we have a record number of sitting Senators running for 1:35:42.800 --> 1:35:47.280 governor this year in other states across the board. And 1:35:47.400 --> 1:35:50.160 then the other problem, I mean the problem is what 1:35:50.520 --> 1:35:53.720 used to make the Senate fun and actually, frankly a 1:35:53.880 --> 1:35:56.519 great place for a former governor to go, is that 1:35:56.600 --> 1:35:59.880 that it was a place to be somewhat independent. I mean, 1:36:00.120 --> 1:36:02.560 you were expected to sit on one side of the 1:36:02.600 --> 1:36:05.600 aisle or the other, but nobody expected to you know, 1:36:07.080 --> 1:36:10.360 they'd look at Ted Kennedy and John McCain and think, okay, 1:36:10.560 --> 1:36:13.880 I can mess around, It's okay to work with the 1:36:13.960 --> 1:36:16.640 other side. And it was a very accepted practice in 1:36:16.720 --> 1:36:19.600 the Senate in some ways. It was a feature, not 1:36:19.720 --> 1:36:22.599 a bug, of the Senate. And I think the Senate 1:36:22.680 --> 1:36:25.559 in particular, in our new polarize and I say new 1:36:25.600 --> 1:36:28.360 polarized climate obviously, where the politics that you and I 1:36:28.439 --> 1:36:31.080 grew up with in the seventies and eighties is not 1:36:31.200 --> 1:36:34.960 today's politics. Right. The divides may look familiar, but it's different. 1:36:35.840 --> 1:36:39.120 And you keep bringing up Sam Nun. Sam Nunn was 1:36:39.720 --> 1:36:42.760 my father's dream candidate for president. He was recovering, you know. 1:36:42.880 --> 1:36:45.960 He was a Reagan Democrat who never went back to 1:36:46.000 --> 1:36:48.559 the Democratic Party, and he loved Sam Nun. Sam Nunn 1:36:48.600 --> 1:36:51.800 was always the last, the one Democrat alive that he 1:36:51.880 --> 1:36:54.560 wanted to vote for next before he passed away. So 1:36:56.439 --> 1:37:00.160 you cannot do that anymore in the Senate because that 1:37:00.520 --> 1:37:03.920 in some ways, maybe it's our partisan media, right, we 1:37:04.000 --> 1:37:08.320 have a very there's robust liberal media, there's robust conservative media, 1:37:08.360 --> 1:37:11.720 there's robust mega media, there's robust influencer media, whatever you 1:37:11.800 --> 1:37:13.639 want to call it these days, right, and it's all different. 1:37:14.439 --> 1:37:17.920 And if Governor Camp asked me could he get anything 1:37:17.960 --> 1:37:20.719 done in the Senate, I tell him you can't unless 1:37:20.800 --> 1:37:24.400 you become a leader. And you know, especially it's really 1:37:24.479 --> 1:37:27.720 miserable being in the Senate when your party's in the 1:37:27.720 --> 1:37:31.599 White House, because you cannot ever criticize your party, even 1:37:31.640 --> 1:37:35.200 if you really want to you become a heretic, as 1:37:35.520 --> 1:37:38.639 ask Joe Manchin or ask Lisa Mrkowski. 1:37:39.560 --> 1:37:41.680 Yeah, I mean I think it's so. You know, the 1:37:41.760 --> 1:37:44.439 Senate was always like my dream job, you know. I 1:37:44.479 --> 1:37:46.679 always thought that would be like the most fun because 1:37:46.720 --> 1:37:48.920 you wouldn't have to be as political because it's a 1:37:49.000 --> 1:37:51.760 six year term, you know, And it's just not that 1:37:51.880 --> 1:37:55.880 way anymore. But I kind of blame where we are 1:37:55.960 --> 1:37:59.760 in politics today on the decision in nineteen thirteen to 1:38:00.040 --> 1:38:03.640 change the constitution and make the Senate elected instead of appoint. 1:38:03.360 --> 1:38:05.560 Oh wow, you're one of those you want to repeal that. 1:38:05.920 --> 1:38:09.360 I have a I blame about thirteen years later. I 1:38:09.479 --> 1:38:13.519 blame Congress no longer expanding the size of the House 1:38:13.880 --> 1:38:17.400 every ten years. Not just that's interesting. I don't know 1:38:17.439 --> 1:38:20.560 if I want state legislatures. Well, he's cited. Tell you what, 1:38:20.720 --> 1:38:22.640 there's always maker case. I'll shut up. 1:38:22.800 --> 1:38:25.640 There's always going to be corruption in politics. Okay, But 1:38:26.400 --> 1:38:28.800 at least when you were dealing with the Senate, I mean, 1:38:28.880 --> 1:38:31.639 with the legislature, you didn't need all this money to run. 1:38:31.960 --> 1:38:34.439 And I remember David Produce saying to me, you know, 1:38:34.560 --> 1:38:36.479 well then then I would have never won in a 1:38:36.520 --> 1:38:38.720 situation like that. I said, but maybe you wouldn't have 1:38:38.800 --> 1:38:41.639 wanted to leave retirement and run if we had had 1:38:41.680 --> 1:38:44.320 those kind of senators, because I believe the problem with 1:38:44.400 --> 1:38:47.439 the Senate they're not beholding to their states anymore. They 1:38:47.520 --> 1:38:50.160 care more about their donors and their caucus than they 1:38:50.240 --> 1:38:53.040 do about their states. They do not put their states first, 1:38:53.080 --> 1:38:55.960 whether it's Rafayel Warnock and John oss Off or it's 1:38:56.760 --> 1:38:59.960 you know, what's a state with two Republicans it doesn't matter, 1:39:00.200 --> 1:39:03.280 or they're not as they're not as behold and they 1:39:03.360 --> 1:39:07.360 care more about the DSCC and their caucus and their donors. 1:39:07.680 --> 1:39:10.400 And that's when that kind of money raising started. You know, 1:39:10.439 --> 1:39:11.760 they didn't need money before then. 1:39:12.000 --> 1:39:12.920 So that's my thought. 1:39:13.000 --> 1:39:14.400 I am one of those twenty three. 1:39:14.439 --> 1:39:16.880 Well I say that, you know, you know, the trigger 1:39:17.120 --> 1:39:20.840 for that amendment, like the last straw, was a bribery 1:39:20.960 --> 1:39:25.839 scandal of the Illinois state legislature. And I know Illinois shocking, 1:39:26.720 --> 1:39:29.519 but it was a bribery of the Illinois state of Basically, 1:39:29.600 --> 1:39:34.519 they were handing out ten thousand dollars checks in nineteen nine, 1:39:34.960 --> 1:39:38.240 nineteen ten. That's a lot of money in nineteen ten. 1:39:38.680 --> 1:39:42.800 Okay, my grandmother's house in Jersey City was about ten 1:39:42.880 --> 1:39:44.599 thousand dollars around that time. 1:39:45.040 --> 1:39:48.040 See that's how much a that's how much per legend, 1:39:48.240 --> 1:39:51.360 per vote they were purchasing. You know, it's no wonder 1:39:51.439 --> 1:39:54.280 Rod Blgoyevitch didn't want to give up that Obama sendency 1:39:54.439 --> 1:40:01.000 for zero. You know that his famous quote, Well, I 1:40:01.040 --> 1:40:04.400 don't I I don't know. I look at state less. 1:40:04.960 --> 1:40:09.439 I'll be honest, I believe the least corrupt legislature in 1:40:09.760 --> 1:40:13.439 America's Congress, and that the lower you go, the more 1:40:13.560 --> 1:40:16.040 corruptible it is. And there's a variety of reasons for 1:40:16.120 --> 1:40:16.360 that one. 1:40:16.920 --> 1:40:17.480 Money. 1:40:18.080 --> 1:40:21.480 Well, there are more more eyeballs on Congress. There's more reporters. 1:40:22.200 --> 1:40:24.760 You can hate them, hate us, or love us. There's 1:40:24.880 --> 1:40:28.600 just more of us covering Congress. Fewer are at state legislatures, 1:40:28.680 --> 1:40:31.280 and even fewer at city councils. Right. I would say 1:40:31.280 --> 1:40:34.160 the most corrupt is usually the most local, because no 1:40:34.240 --> 1:40:34.759 one's watching. 1:40:35.439 --> 1:40:37.840 No, I don't disagree with that. And the joke I 1:40:37.960 --> 1:40:40.960 used to tell when Cassim Read was the mayor of Atlanta, 1:40:41.240 --> 1:40:43.040 I said, yeah, the money comes in down the hall, 1:40:43.240 --> 1:40:46.439 and that's very tempting. You know, it's like you can't. 1:40:46.840 --> 1:40:49.240 You know, it's it's a it's a it's a challenge. 1:40:49.400 --> 1:40:52.439 And I think that you're right. I think the more 1:40:52.479 --> 1:40:54.439 local stuff is more corrupt. And I don't know that 1:40:54.560 --> 1:40:56.880 the I'm not saying so much that the Senate's corrupt. 1:40:57.200 --> 1:40:59.439 It just takes too much money to become a senator. 1:40:59.760 --> 1:41:01.680 I'm I mean, I think we spent a half a 1:41:01.760 --> 1:41:05.000 billion dollars last time in that cycle. 1:41:05.439 --> 1:41:07.920 And that's North Carolina. It's probably going to be the 1:41:08.000 --> 1:41:11.600 first billion dollar center. Yeah, it's crazy, insanity, it is. 1:41:11.680 --> 1:41:14.320 It's too much money. It's like when I had a 1:41:14.439 --> 1:41:17.680 meeting for that Senate seat appointment that Kelly Lefler got, 1:41:17.960 --> 1:41:21.040 and I was very frank with the governor. I said, 1:41:21.080 --> 1:41:23.240 I can't raise twenty million dollars. I'm not that good 1:41:23.320 --> 1:41:27.479 at it, you know. And I thought Kelly Leffler was great, 1:41:29.000 --> 1:41:32.120 but she got forced because Doug Collins got into the race. 1:41:32.200 --> 1:41:34.840 She got forced to go right instead of being that 1:41:34.920 --> 1:41:36.000 suburban woman she was. 1:41:36.240 --> 1:41:39.360 Yeah, I got the sense that Kelly Leffler lost her 1:41:39.360 --> 1:41:43.000 political identity pretty quickly. It sounds like you agree with 1:41:43.080 --> 1:41:46.800 that that it felt like who she was when she 1:41:47.479 --> 1:41:50.280 who Governor Kemp thought he was appointing a bunch of 1:41:50.360 --> 1:41:53.599 political consultants got ahold of her and turned her into 1:41:53.640 --> 1:41:56.000 a two dimensional just caricature. 1:41:56.320 --> 1:41:58.920 Well, it's the consultants all the time, isn't it. You've 1:41:58.960 --> 1:42:01.000 got to be really strong in that area. But one 1:42:01.120 --> 1:42:03.519 thing I do love about her is that she didn't 1:42:03.520 --> 1:42:05.879 take her ball and go home. She started this organization 1:42:06.040 --> 1:42:08.600 called Greater Georgia that was dad or driven and that 1:42:08.960 --> 1:42:12.599 that identified a bunch of conservative households that weren't voting 1:42:12.640 --> 1:42:16.320 regularly and got out and did the grassroots stuff to 1:42:16.400 --> 1:42:18.560 get him out to vote. And so I think, you know, 1:42:19.040 --> 1:42:20.720 that's one thing I loved. She did not take her 1:42:20.760 --> 1:42:25.080 ball and go home, and she continued being an operative 1:42:25.120 --> 1:42:26.080 in Georgia politics. 1:42:28.280 --> 1:42:31.400 Brian Kemp for President's it sounds to me it's like 1:42:31.520 --> 1:42:33.680 it's going to happen. I think if he I think 1:42:33.760 --> 1:42:35.519 one of the reasons you don't run for the Senate 1:42:35.560 --> 1:42:38.720 see Look, I think there was a lot of job 1:42:38.880 --> 1:42:41.080 description reasons why you don't run for the Senate. See. 1:42:41.520 --> 1:42:43.599 But if you're at all thinking about running in twenty eight, 1:42:43.640 --> 1:42:46.479 it's an insult of voters to immediately run for one 1:42:46.520 --> 1:42:48.639 thing in twenty six and then another thing in twenty eight. 1:42:48.760 --> 1:42:51.200 So if he was thinking about president it makes a 1:42:51.240 --> 1:42:54.519 lot of sense for me at least, then don't run 1:42:54.560 --> 1:42:57.720 for the Senate, because that'd be you know, to leave 1:42:57.880 --> 1:43:00.280 after two years. You know, immediately you're running, and you'd 1:43:00.320 --> 1:43:01.320 immediately be running. 1:43:01.880 --> 1:43:04.920 Yeah, I think people will know after we get through 1:43:04.960 --> 1:43:08.479 this session and actually the primary. He's probably not going 1:43:08.560 --> 1:43:10.599 to do anything to take the light off of Derek 1:43:10.640 --> 1:43:13.519 Dooley at all. I have not talked to him about 1:43:13.520 --> 1:43:18.040 a presidential run, but you know, it all depends on Marty. 1:43:18.439 --> 1:43:21.280 You know, they are a very very strong couple, and 1:43:21.800 --> 1:43:24.719 if she is not interested in doing that, they won't 1:43:24.760 --> 1:43:28.040 do it. And I don't think that's a bad idea 1:43:28.200 --> 1:43:30.360 for couples to be that way actually, because it's a 1:43:30.400 --> 1:43:32.800 big commitment. You know, it's a big commitment to do that. 1:43:33.240 --> 1:43:36.479 And it's easier for women to not have their husbands 1:43:36.520 --> 1:43:39.599 everywhere than it is for men to not have their 1:43:39.640 --> 1:43:42.120 wives everywhere. You know, my husband was you know, he 1:43:42.160 --> 1:43:44.040 would put signs up, but he wasn't a guy that 1:43:44.160 --> 1:43:46.040 was going to come to an event with me and 1:43:46.160 --> 1:43:50.000 be the little man. But it's more acceptable for a 1:43:50.600 --> 1:43:53.000 you know, a husband of a female candidate not to 1:43:53.040 --> 1:43:53.879 show up everywhere. 1:44:03.120 --> 1:44:07.679 That's interesting that that's an observation that I've not heard before. 1:44:07.720 --> 1:44:10.519 But I think you're right. I think there is. It 1:44:10.680 --> 1:44:14.960 is one of these how would you do? It's it's 1:44:16.320 --> 1:44:18.400 it's a it's a stereotype that it's not fair. But 1:44:18.479 --> 1:44:20.040 it's just that people ask. 1:44:19.920 --> 1:44:22.160 Me who's going to take care of my kids? Who's 1:44:22.160 --> 1:44:23.960 gonna I mean, my kids were all grown by then. 1:44:25.160 --> 1:44:27.280 You know when women start. I did my whole thesis 1:44:27.439 --> 1:44:31.960 on women's electoral success in the Republican Party, and women 1:44:32.080 --> 1:44:34.799 start later because they think they need to be ready. 1:44:35.000 --> 1:44:37.439 Men will just run for every anything. But the funt 1:44:37.520 --> 1:44:39.439 the hardest thing is you've got to let You've got 1:44:39.520 --> 1:44:41.800 to put aside the time to get your hair done okay, 1:44:41.920 --> 1:44:44.479 because there are no gray haired women in politics or 1:44:44.520 --> 1:44:48.080 television or very few. And who's going to carry your purse? 1:44:48.160 --> 1:44:49.800 Because it never looks good to walk out of a 1:44:49.920 --> 1:44:52.759 room with your purse, So you got to do those things. 1:44:53.800 --> 1:44:56.479 Do you What do you make of Marjorie Taylor Green's 1:44:56.520 --> 1:45:02.360 critique She's been typically on this that that MAGA doesn't 1:45:02.439 --> 1:45:03.479 make it easy for women. 1:45:05.560 --> 1:45:09.559 I agree with that, and I think that Okay, Marjorie 1:45:10.120 --> 1:45:12.559 should have talked a lot more throughout her career about 1:45:12.640 --> 1:45:17.280 this great third generation construction business that she was keeping 1:45:17.360 --> 1:45:19.880 going and growing. I mean, and that was my advice 1:45:20.200 --> 1:45:23.000 to her when she first started running. Nobody really knew 1:45:23.040 --> 1:45:24.840 that side of her. They just knew the bomb throwing 1:45:25.080 --> 1:45:27.519 side of her. I have a lot of problem with 1:45:27.600 --> 1:45:31.120 people that leave office before their term is up. To 1:45:31.280 --> 1:45:33.760 your point that you were talking about earlier, it's a 1:45:34.479 --> 1:45:37.760 two year office that you asked for, you begged for, 1:45:37.920 --> 1:45:40.680 you raised money for. And even if she decided she 1:45:40.880 --> 1:45:43.840 wasn't going to run, she just could not run and 1:45:43.920 --> 1:45:46.160 then finished out her term instead of doing what she's 1:45:46.240 --> 1:45:49.919 doing to her people right now, is which a primary 1:45:50.040 --> 1:45:52.680 and run a general, I mean a jungle primary and 1:45:52.720 --> 1:45:54.400 a runoff, and then they're going to have a general 1:45:54.439 --> 1:45:56.200 primary and a runoff and then they're going to have 1:45:56.240 --> 1:46:01.880 another election. And so I just hate that, okay. And 1:46:02.000 --> 1:46:04.560 I think the only time I have ever agreed with 1:46:04.680 --> 1:46:08.080 AOC is when she said Donald Trump's been giving you 1:46:08.160 --> 1:46:10.120 a hard time for a week. He's been doing it 1:46:10.240 --> 1:46:12.880 to me for five years, and you're leaving, so I 1:46:13.479 --> 1:46:16.599 you know, I think AOC is the most overblown person 1:46:16.640 --> 1:46:19.000 that I've ever seen in politics. I think she does not. 1:46:19.400 --> 1:46:22.120 I think she's very attractive, and even men on my 1:46:22.280 --> 1:46:24.599 side think she looks great. But I think she doesn't 1:46:24.680 --> 1:46:28.000 understand what the real world is like. But she was 1:46:28.120 --> 1:46:30.080 right about that. I mean, you get picked on by 1:46:30.120 --> 1:46:32.559 the president for a week and you quit your job. 1:46:34.400 --> 1:46:37.200 Do you think is there any credence to her criticism? 1:46:37.280 --> 1:46:40.880 Though that? It is harder for that. It is harder 1:46:42.439 --> 1:46:47.720 for women to get traction with the Maga wing of 1:46:47.760 --> 1:46:48.320 the party. 1:46:48.439 --> 1:46:51.200 Not just magawing. It's harder for women to get traction everywhere. 1:46:51.240 --> 1:46:54.240 The Democrats do a little better job than the Republicans do, 1:46:54.680 --> 1:46:58.240 but it's still not anywhere near their percentage of who's voting. 1:46:58.280 --> 1:47:01.160 Because women are the hardest on other women. You know, 1:47:01.320 --> 1:47:02.639 I got a lot more problem. 1:47:02.720 --> 1:47:04.920 And that's what missus Todd would tell you. Yeah, she 1:47:05.640 --> 1:47:08.720 feels like you know, she used to argue, you know, 1:47:09.479 --> 1:47:12.600 particularly for our generation, there would be one seat at 1:47:12.640 --> 1:47:16.760 the table for a woman, right and so hey, it's 1:47:16.800 --> 1:47:19.800 more seats than there were from the boomers, and you 1:47:19.880 --> 1:47:23.080 get that one seat, and other women would instead of 1:47:23.240 --> 1:47:26.040 fighting to get a second or a third seat, they 1:47:26.080 --> 1:47:29.360 didn't send and said they all, you know, keeping other 1:47:29.439 --> 1:47:32.920 women from making it right rather than fighting for more. 1:47:33.840 --> 1:47:36.960 I think in general, it's easy for easier for men. Period. 1:47:37.400 --> 1:47:39.880 We've come a long way, baby, and I consider myself 1:47:39.920 --> 1:47:43.879 a feminist and I really resent it when liberal feminists 1:47:43.920 --> 1:47:46.080 say I can't be a feminist because I'm a conservative. 1:47:46.479 --> 1:47:48.760 I think being a feminist is all about having the 1:47:48.880 --> 1:47:52.599 choices you know before you you know, I stayed at 1:47:52.600 --> 1:47:56.640 home for ten for eight years, and I did you know, 1:47:56.720 --> 1:47:58.880 I say, you can have it all, just not at 1:47:58.880 --> 1:48:02.800 the same time. And there's just it's harder for women 1:48:02.880 --> 1:48:05.639 and everything, okay, even though we've come a long way 1:48:06.000 --> 1:48:07.920 and we've done great, but you know what, I don't 1:48:07.960 --> 1:48:11.120 focus on that. I have a great husband and a 1:48:11.200 --> 1:48:14.960 fantastic family, and especially being eight weeks out from a 1:48:15.000 --> 1:48:17.360 heart attack, I'm thinking, you know, there's a lot more 1:48:17.400 --> 1:48:19.920 important things in life, so you just got to make 1:48:19.960 --> 1:48:21.599 sure you got all your priorities straight. 1:48:22.160 --> 1:48:24.479 Let me close with this. I had Jack dan Forth 1:48:24.560 --> 1:48:28.080 on recently, who's just I mean, it's amazing at ninety 1:48:28.160 --> 1:48:31.920 two and he's you think he was seventy two. He's 1:48:32.400 --> 1:48:35.800 just one of the great gentlemen of the US. Senate back. 1:48:36.360 --> 1:48:38.360 You know when people say the good old days, he's 1:48:38.439 --> 1:48:40.599 one of the people I would vision envision in my head. 1:48:40.840 --> 1:48:42.240 He's one of the people that made it good. 1:48:44.280 --> 1:48:49.720 He's really he really is. What really animates him negatively 1:48:49.840 --> 1:48:53.320 about this about President Trump and about MAGA is the 1:48:53.600 --> 1:48:59.360 nastiness of it, right, the personal and look, it is ugly. 1:49:00.000 --> 1:49:02.040 I'm got to sit here and says, politics ain't being 1:49:02.120 --> 1:49:05.360 bag right, all's fair and love and politics right, Okay, 1:49:05.479 --> 1:49:08.120 I think I've been around long enough to understand that. 1:49:08.880 --> 1:49:12.400 Do you think we've crossed the line though in where 1:49:12.439 --> 1:49:16.760 our rhetoric is? And you know, I mean, I'm sure 1:49:16.760 --> 1:49:20.280 you run into this, right, Why do why do suburban 1:49:21.400 --> 1:49:24.719 sort of squishy Republicans, why are they willing to cross 1:49:24.760 --> 1:49:28.200 the aisle against Trump? It's usually for character in style, 1:49:28.720 --> 1:49:31.280 not necessarily for substance, It's true. 1:49:31.479 --> 1:49:33.880 And look, I have this theory that there are these 1:49:33.920 --> 1:49:37.280 fifty year cycles and we get just far enough away 1:49:37.320 --> 1:49:39.679 that we don't remember. So like in the nineteen twenties 1:49:39.720 --> 1:49:42.479 you had prohibitions, so you had lawlessness and crime in 1:49:42.520 --> 1:49:46.480 the cities and all this stuff. In the nineteen seventies, 1:49:46.600 --> 1:49:50.080 you had in the late sixties and seventies, you had assassinations, 1:49:50.120 --> 1:49:53.360 you had political assassinations, you had you know, all that 1:49:53.560 --> 1:49:56.800 sort of thing that happened, and then you know, we're 1:49:56.840 --> 1:49:59.680 now in the twenty twenties. We've got the same sort 1:49:59.720 --> 1:50:03.080 of side. We had some political political assassination last year, 1:50:03.240 --> 1:50:05.519 we had other things that were going on, and you've 1:50:05.560 --> 1:50:08.400 got people now not moving from the cities to the suburbs, 1:50:08.439 --> 1:50:11.639 they're moving whole states. And so I think we're kind 1:50:11.680 --> 1:50:14.720 of I'm an optimistic person, so I think things will 1:50:14.760 --> 1:50:15.200 get better. 1:50:15.640 --> 1:50:15.880 I'm not. 1:50:17.520 --> 1:50:19.760 I don't think this is all Trump's fault. You know, 1:50:20.040 --> 1:50:24.200 I think that he was a symptom. I've often said 1:50:24.200 --> 1:50:26.800 that I think Barack Obama and Donald Trump were two 1:50:26.880 --> 1:50:29.040 sides of the same coin. People wanted to check. 1:50:29.160 --> 1:50:35.040 Voters wanted not just change, they wanted full disruptions. Yes, 1:50:35.160 --> 1:50:38.559 and Obama was one kind of disruption, and then Trump 1:50:38.720 --> 1:50:42.400 was was, you know, another kind of disruption. And I 1:50:42.479 --> 1:50:44.599 don't disagree with that. Yeah, I think there's some truth things. 1:50:45.000 --> 1:50:49.000 My theory is President Obama actually really wanted to belong more. 1:50:49.439 --> 1:50:51.400 You know, he said he was the change agent, and 1:50:51.439 --> 1:50:54.120 I guess he was because he was the first black president. 1:50:54.640 --> 1:50:57.160 He wanted to be in the club, and so he 1:50:57.360 --> 1:51:00.679 wanted to kind of function the way way it always 1:51:00.720 --> 1:51:03.760 had been done. And he strikes me as somebody that 1:51:03.840 --> 1:51:07.120 they thought he was this guy that wanted to change everything, 1:51:07.240 --> 1:51:08.080 but maybe he didn't. 1:51:08.120 --> 1:51:09.960 Now granted he was a blessed I can argue that 1:51:10.040 --> 1:51:13.960 anybody that breaks the ceiling, yes, the first, all firsts 1:51:15.320 --> 1:51:20.320 feel as if they have to be extraordinarily cautious. Yeah, 1:51:21.080 --> 1:51:27.280 and a bit risk averse. And whether it's political risk 1:51:27.360 --> 1:51:31.439 averseness or cultural risk averseness. You know, there's this great 1:51:31.520 --> 1:51:33.840 line about that I got when I was reporting out 1:51:34.200 --> 1:51:37.280 Biden being the running mate, you know, rather than and 1:51:37.560 --> 1:51:40.719 the line that I kept being told that Barack Obama 1:51:40.800 --> 1:51:46.080 said is I'm enough change and it is always stuck 1:51:46.160 --> 1:51:50.280 with me because you're right. I mean, he chose. I 1:51:50.360 --> 1:51:53.599 think he saw it as, Hey, I can't be too radical, 1:51:53.840 --> 1:51:57.559 I can't be to this because I am breaking a barrier. 1:51:58.640 --> 1:52:00.759 And I think it's true of anybody that's broken a barrier. 1:52:00.760 --> 1:52:03.519 I'm sure you you know you don't want to be 1:52:04.320 --> 1:52:07.120 you don't want to leave the place where nobody that 1:52:07.280 --> 1:52:09.439 looks like you doesn't have a shot again. 1:52:09.680 --> 1:52:11.800 Well, and I think too that he and this is 1:52:11.840 --> 1:52:14.640 one of those woman things, Okay, because I looked at 1:52:14.640 --> 1:52:17.040 a lot of pictures of him as a child, and 1:52:17.240 --> 1:52:19.600 a lot of pictures there. If you notice and you 1:52:19.680 --> 1:52:21.320 go back and look at you pictures of him as 1:52:21.360 --> 1:52:23.400 a child, he was sitting alone a lot. You know, 1:52:23.479 --> 1:52:25.360 if there was a group of kids, he was over 1:52:25.439 --> 1:52:28.120 by himself. It was like, I think he felt very 1:52:28.479 --> 1:52:31.479 you know, it's different now being biracial than it was. 1:52:31.600 --> 1:52:34.519 It's almost like lift it up now being biracial, it's 1:52:34.640 --> 1:52:35.719 very positive in the UAE. 1:52:35.720 --> 1:52:38.240 Well, when he was born it was his parents. 1:52:38.479 --> 1:52:39.000 It was different. 1:52:39.080 --> 1:52:42.640 Relationship was illegal and about the States. 1:52:42.439 --> 1:52:45.519 Absolutely, so yeah, so you saw this kind of guy, 1:52:45.520 --> 1:52:47.680 and I think he's been trying to fit in, you know, 1:52:47.760 --> 1:52:49.719 whether it was to go to the right church, marry 1:52:49.760 --> 1:52:51.680 the right person, do the right kind. 1:52:52.520 --> 1:52:55.560 I've always chalked it up to the island mentality, you know, 1:52:56.680 --> 1:52:59.320 you know, he he grew up differently than most of 1:52:59.439 --> 1:53:02.519 us do. You grew up on an island, and you 1:53:02.680 --> 1:53:04.840 have to work with others because you're got to. You're 1:53:04.840 --> 1:53:07.920 all stuck in this island. Good, better and different. By 1:53:07.920 --> 1:53:10.000 the way you'd see it during COVID, right the island 1:53:10.080 --> 1:53:12.800 Nations handled it much better than anybody else did, just 1:53:12.800 --> 1:53:15.760 because they're kind of used to, hey, oh hey we've 1:53:15.760 --> 1:53:17.519 got we've got an outbreak of something. We got to 1:53:17.520 --> 1:53:18.960 be careful or we got to do this. We got 1:53:19.520 --> 1:53:22.040 And Hawaii is such a melt you know, we talk 1:53:22.080 --> 1:53:24.640 about being a melting pot. Hawaii is a melting there 1:53:24.720 --> 1:53:28.080 is nobody's at fifty percent right. You've got a Japanese population, 1:53:28.160 --> 1:53:32.160 a Native Hawaiian population, a North you know, sort of 1:53:32.240 --> 1:53:33.920 expat if you want to call it that, people that 1:53:34.000 --> 1:53:36.600 grew up on the continental United States over there, and 1:53:36.640 --> 1:53:39.559 it's just a it's a it really is a full 1:53:39.640 --> 1:53:44.200 fledged melting pot. So yeah, I think all of that 1:53:44.640 --> 1:53:47.759 is true with him. Well, just like with with Trump, 1:53:48.240 --> 1:53:50.760 you know, he had a different sort of you know, 1:53:51.120 --> 1:53:53.800 I think he also had a lonely job. But because 1:53:53.840 --> 1:53:56.400 here's something that's always bugged me, and it's a bug's 1:53:56.400 --> 1:53:58.360 not the wrong word, but it's an observation you meant 1:53:58.360 --> 1:54:00.519 about Obama. And I'm curious if you notice it was 1:54:00.520 --> 1:54:02.599 about Trump. You know what, you know what you never 1:54:02.680 --> 1:54:07.960 hear about Donald Trump. Childhood friend came to visit him today. 1:54:08.920 --> 1:54:11.000 Guy he went to college with came to visit at 1:54:11.080 --> 1:54:14.320 mar A Lago today. Person he grew up with, he 1:54:14.400 --> 1:54:16.559 went golfing with today. And I don't say that as 1:54:16.600 --> 1:54:20.040 any judgment. It's just interesting. And it's like he also 1:54:20.560 --> 1:54:23.200 went to boarding school. He also sort of I think 1:54:23.280 --> 1:54:28.040 he was raised weirdly isolated from other kids. 1:54:28.120 --> 1:54:30.599 Probably a lot of them are dead, Okay, that are 1:54:30.720 --> 1:54:31.880 is it would be his child. 1:54:32.600 --> 1:54:34.400 Yeah, we forget he's out there. 1:54:34.480 --> 1:54:37.120 And we forget that when he came across the bridge 1:54:37.160 --> 1:54:38.960 from Staten Island or wherever it was that he grew 1:54:39.040 --> 1:54:42.560 up to Manhattan, he was a destructor because you didn't 1:54:42.600 --> 1:54:44.960 come over and get into the Manhattan real estate business 1:54:45.000 --> 1:54:48.200 if you didn't have that connection to the Manhattan real 1:54:48.320 --> 1:54:51.600 estate business. And it's so interesting. He's an interesting guy, 1:54:51.680 --> 1:54:54.800 he really is. I mean, I don't like all the 1:54:54.920 --> 1:54:57.680 things that I don't like a lot of the things 1:54:57.720 --> 1:54:59.800 that he says. I don't like that way he presents himself, 1:55:00.160 --> 1:55:03.400 the whole thing about Rob Reiner and then about Mueller, 1:55:03.960 --> 1:55:06.640 when you know he can act right. When he was 1:55:06.800 --> 1:55:11.320 asked about RB. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, he was gracious and 1:55:11.400 --> 1:55:12.720 he was kind and he didn't. 1:55:12.480 --> 1:55:14.200 Like her act. Does I tell you when you can't 1:55:14.240 --> 1:55:21.040 fake it when you what what do you mean? I mean, 1:55:21.120 --> 1:55:23.760 I was just like, can't you just not give you 1:55:23.760 --> 1:55:25.840 a hold off a week? I mean, I had a 1:55:26.040 --> 1:55:30.680 boss who had a very strong feelings about Richard Nixon. 1:55:31.640 --> 1:55:35.200 And when Richard Nixon died, and he had worked very 1:55:35.240 --> 1:55:37.400 closely with Nixon Rofe, closely with that version of the 1:55:37.440 --> 1:55:41.080 Republican Party, he goes, he said, I'm not going to 1:55:41.120 --> 1:55:43.720 say anything until after he's buried, and after all the 1:55:43.760 --> 1:55:46.200 tributes have happened, there was like this. He believed that 1:55:46.280 --> 1:55:49.280 there was like some level of respect, like this was 1:55:49.360 --> 1:55:52.360 not the week to tell you, you know. But when 1:55:52.400 --> 1:55:54.480 it was over, he called an all staff meeting. Let me, 1:55:54.840 --> 1:55:57.040 let's sit down and let me tell you about him. 1:55:57.120 --> 1:55:59.640 And he had some things to say, but there was 1:55:59.760 --> 1:56:02.720 this pay some respect to the dead. 1:56:03.200 --> 1:56:07.040 Absolutely, no, I agree he didn't. LVJ was a horrible person, 1:56:07.120 --> 1:56:09.560 but nobody said anything about it, you know, on the 1:56:09.680 --> 1:56:13.440 day he died, you know. And I just think that 1:56:14.160 --> 1:56:17.160 there's there's like a Jenson Franklin who's a pastor in 1:56:17.240 --> 1:56:20.240 our community, who's part of the faith community. For Trump 1:56:20.320 --> 1:56:24.400 said he has a problem with the compassion gene. But 1:56:24.720 --> 1:56:27.240 but then you also see these really gracious things he 1:56:27.360 --> 1:56:30.520 does with little kids at the Easter egg thing or 1:56:30.760 --> 1:56:33.320 people that he brings into the Oval office so he 1:56:33.560 --> 1:56:36.320 can do it. I just wish he would do it, 1:56:36.440 --> 1:56:38.720 you know, I kind of wish X would or truth 1:56:38.760 --> 1:56:40.480 social whatever you use, go back to one hundred and 1:56:40.520 --> 1:56:43.640 forty characters, because it would you know, it's that last 1:56:43.760 --> 1:56:47.440 line that's the problem. They get you in trouble. 1:56:47.960 --> 1:56:51.480 Yeah, he Uh, You're not the first person who said 1:56:51.480 --> 1:56:53.320 I remember I had somebody who worked for him and said, 1:56:53.320 --> 1:56:54.880 I like when you interview him because you keep him 1:56:54.880 --> 1:57:02.440 on message. Because but it's he look someday we'll study 1:57:02.560 --> 1:57:05.200 maybe somebody will study him in science. Trying to figure 1:57:05.200 --> 1:57:08.879 that out, because it he only would have to modify 1:57:08.920 --> 1:57:12.040 his behavior this much, it need be in a better place. 1:57:12.280 --> 1:57:14.600 And the fact that he won't modify his behavior that 1:57:14.720 --> 1:57:19.480 much is also a curiosity. Why, right, he's willing to 1:57:19.560 --> 1:57:22.840 do so many other things transactionally, Why won't you do that? 1:57:23.360 --> 1:57:25.760 Because the benefits you would get if you would do 1:57:25.920 --> 1:57:30.360 that could be pretty big politically, but he chooses not to. 1:57:30.960 --> 1:57:33.440 But I do think that so far the second term 1:57:33.560 --> 1:57:34.960 is much better than the first term. 1:57:35.320 --> 1:57:39.200 And I do think that really that voters. The voters 1:57:39.200 --> 1:57:41.640 are agreeing with you on that his numbers are worse 1:57:41.720 --> 1:57:43.640 now than they were anytime during the first term. 1:57:44.960 --> 1:57:46.960 Well that may at the moment, you know, pulling his 1:57:47.040 --> 1:57:48.600 snapshots anyway. 1:57:48.600 --> 1:57:51.320 True in this war is not popular coupled with affordability, 1:57:51.400 --> 1:57:51.920 it's a mess. 1:57:52.040 --> 1:57:56.200 I mean, I obviously this election is the Democrats to lose. Okay, 1:57:56.280 --> 1:57:59.800 the Democrats should pick up in November. We've had what 1:58:00.120 --> 1:58:01.760 was it two thousand and two, I guess the last 1:58:01.840 --> 1:58:03.720 time that this card. 1:58:03.720 --> 1:58:05.880 And that was arguably a war, right, it was the war. 1:58:06.200 --> 1:58:08.560 It was war time, and it was we had been attacked, 1:58:08.760 --> 1:58:11.600 and so you know, it's it'll be interesting to see 1:58:11.640 --> 1:58:13.840 how it plays out. I just don't I don't pay 1:58:13.920 --> 1:58:16.280 attention to poles as much as I used to because 1:58:16.320 --> 1:58:18.640 the just you don't know if they're AI generated, you 1:58:18.720 --> 1:58:20.640 don't know where they come from and what they do. 1:58:20.840 --> 1:58:23.440 And I know, I don't answer the polling calls that 1:58:23.520 --> 1:58:25.400 I get. And I know I'm a weirdo, you know, 1:58:25.480 --> 1:58:29.120 because I'm a political person, But but I just don't know. 1:58:29.800 --> 1:58:32.080 It is funny though, because my daughter will I'll sometimes 1:58:32.160 --> 1:58:34.080 get calls from my daughter and it's always a left 1:58:34.160 --> 1:58:36.200 linging poll, and so I do answer that one. 1:58:36.400 --> 1:58:39.480 So I just try to mess it up, all right, 1:58:39.560 --> 1:58:42.040 let me get you out of here on this. Now 1:58:42.120 --> 1:58:44.560 that Miami's going to be dominating college football again and 1:58:44.680 --> 1:58:48.000 the Big Ten keeps winning national titles, is Kirby Smart 1:58:48.040 --> 1:58:50.800 on the hot seat yet? I mean, how many? How long? 1:58:51.120 --> 1:58:54.600 How long does this drought? How expected are you, as 1:58:54.640 --> 1:58:59.720 Bulldog fans for this winning now like this? How much? 1:59:00.000 --> 1:59:01.880 How much does he how much time does he buy? 1:59:02.400 --> 1:59:04.320 I don't disagree that we're in a drought. We won 1:59:04.400 --> 1:59:09.440 the SEC championship, and you know it's it's I think 1:59:09.560 --> 1:59:11.800 Georgia Bold. He's there as long as he wants to 1:59:11.840 --> 1:59:13.880 be there, because the thing about Georgia is we don't 1:59:14.080 --> 1:59:16.920 like to hire coaches that have already made it. You know. 1:59:17.240 --> 1:59:20.040 We like to hire coaches we can grow, and that's 1:59:20.080 --> 1:59:21.240 what that's what we like to do. 1:59:21.600 --> 1:59:24.120 But I'm so you've had better success when you've hired 1:59:24.600 --> 1:59:28.360 coaches that can grow versus right. I mean, both both 1:59:28.520 --> 1:59:33.760 Ricked and Smart weren't head coaches. The first head coaching 1:59:33.840 --> 1:59:36.080 job was Georgia right for both cases, yes. 1:59:36.120 --> 1:59:37.600 Right, and Vince Dooley too. 1:59:38.160 --> 1:59:42.200 You know, way back when well, I you know, I 1:59:42.840 --> 1:59:46.840 one of the weird things about Miami and Georgia is 1:59:46.920 --> 1:59:49.200 that they've both been big college football powers off and 1:59:49.280 --> 1:59:51.040 on for the last thirty years, and they never play. 1:59:52.360 --> 1:59:54.680 It really bugs me that Miami and Georgia. In fact, 1:59:54.720 --> 1:59:57.800 I was looking forward and then to Miami playing Georgia 1:59:57.920 --> 2:00:01.480 Carson Beck's return, and yet you guys blew it against 2:00:01.520 --> 2:00:03.840 Ole Miss. I mean, you know, you ruined what would 2:00:03.840 --> 2:00:05.680 have been a rare unique I think it had been. 2:00:06.400 --> 2:00:08.480 I mean, Miami, it only played Old Miss like three times. 2:00:08.640 --> 2:00:13.000 It is strange how in the hotbed of the South 2:00:13.080 --> 2:00:16.360 that Miami and some of these SEC schools have rarely played. 2:00:16.440 --> 2:00:19.640 Don't count the SEC out and our applications are way 2:00:19.720 --> 2:00:22.160 up because we handled all the problems with the protests 2:00:22.240 --> 2:00:25.480 better than anybody else. And and look, All Miss is 2:00:25.600 --> 2:00:30.240 fantastic because they built this back. They have the best tailgating. 2:00:30.280 --> 2:00:31.560 I don't know if you've ever tailgated. 2:00:31.720 --> 2:00:34.360 I have, I've been there. I look, look, all I'll 2:00:34.400 --> 2:00:37.480 say is an ACC apologist is the only difference between 2:00:37.480 --> 2:00:40.480 the ACC and the secs. You guys got better stadiums, okay, 2:00:40.800 --> 2:00:43.840 and you've got better tailgates. I will concede that. Whether 2:00:43.880 --> 2:00:48.960 it's Fayetteville, whether it's Oxford, whether it's Athens, Auburn, I 2:00:49.080 --> 2:00:52.920 will concede college station. You know these adopted SEC towns 2:00:52.960 --> 2:00:57.240 that I still can't quite believe their SEC town I 2:00:57.320 --> 2:00:59.400 will give you that you guys have better stadiums, but 2:00:59.520 --> 2:01:01.920 I just question whether the football is actually that much better. 2:01:02.200 --> 2:01:04.520 That's all right, well it you. 2:01:04.560 --> 2:01:06.880 Know, the numbers back it up. We're going to see 2:01:06.920 --> 2:01:09.120 what happens though with n I L I mean, and 2:01:09.520 --> 2:01:11.000 all the things that are going on there. I'm so 2:01:11.080 --> 2:01:13.840 glad that Rick Saban was on that Nick Saban was 2:01:13.920 --> 2:01:16.960 on that committee though, because he's you know, he knows. 2:01:16.840 --> 2:01:19.880 How to do it so well. Look, I appreciate that 2:01:19.960 --> 2:01:21.880 the president wants to insert himself in this. This is 2:01:21.920 --> 2:01:24.680 a congress job. Congress has to get involved. This is 2:01:24.760 --> 2:01:28.240 a this is they've got to get involved. University president's 2:01:28.360 --> 2:01:30.960 got to go in some ways. The president is a 2:01:31.000 --> 2:01:33.960 distraction from this. He cannot solve this with an executive order. 2:01:35.280 --> 2:01:39.200 Well, you know, my my friend Saxby Chambliss, he's living 2:01:39.280 --> 2:01:40.280 the life of Riley Man. 2:01:40.360 --> 2:01:43.400 He's got he's got this the handicapp down to he 2:01:43.480 --> 2:01:45.640 had the most handicap for a long time. 2:01:45.720 --> 2:01:50.480 But he also had he dealt with the PGA live thing, right, 2:01:50.640 --> 2:01:53.640 which is cool. And then he's doing nil too, so 2:01:54.680 --> 2:01:57.680 he's he's really staying relevant. We're going to talk tomorrow actually, 2:01:57.760 --> 2:01:59.880 and then he's going to be on the show Wednesday. 2:01:59.560 --> 2:02:03.080 And oh interesting, Well, that that is something I'm gonna 2:02:03.360 --> 2:02:05.600 if you're going to be I'm gonna have to check 2:02:05.680 --> 2:02:09.720 that out. I was always curious about mister Chambliss, and 2:02:09.720 --> 2:02:11.760 I'm glad to know he's still as active as as 2:02:11.800 --> 2:02:12.720 you described. 2:02:12.440 --> 2:02:15.480 And he's recovered from the stroke he had several years 2:02:15.520 --> 2:02:17.320 ago and he's just doing great. 2:02:18.520 --> 2:02:20.880 Well. Martha, this was a pleasure, And I have no 2:02:20.960 --> 2:02:22.920 idea whether your listeners would want a home in a way, but. 2:02:23.040 --> 2:02:25.680 You know, let me know I appreciate it very much. 2:02:25.720 --> 2:02:27.320 We'll have you on sometime, all. 2:02:27.280 --> 2:02:44.600 Right, Martha, got you podcast time Machine time. So let 2:02:44.680 --> 2:02:47.200 me tell you. I'm not gonna lie to you. This 2:02:47.400 --> 2:02:50.600 was not the easiest week to decide what was worth 2:02:51.480 --> 2:02:54.040 your time doing a deep dive on And I say 2:02:54.080 --> 2:02:55.520 you were time because that's how I try to look 2:02:55.520 --> 2:02:59.160 at these things. What is something that I think, what 2:02:59.280 --> 2:03:01.480 are a what's what's the topic that people, you know, 2:03:01.640 --> 2:03:04.240 they know they know something, but they don't really know 2:03:04.560 --> 2:03:08.120 as much about it as they probably should. And that's 2:03:08.280 --> 2:03:10.640 kind of how I try to choose it right in 2:03:10.720 --> 2:03:13.440 those terms, which I won't go with the most obvious. 2:03:14.080 --> 2:03:15.840 And this week, I mean, I'll be honest, there was 2:03:15.920 --> 2:03:19.040 just a ton of anniversaries that hit this week. In history, 2:03:21.440 --> 2:03:24.520 I mean, April nineteenth, seventeen seventy five, the battles of 2:03:24.600 --> 2:03:28.240 Lexting and Concord, Right, that's that, you know, when protests 2:03:28.240 --> 2:03:32.560 becomes a revolution April fourteenth, eighteen sixty five, the assassination 2:03:32.600 --> 2:03:36.120 of Abraham Lincoln April nineteenth, nineteen ninety five, the Oklahoma 2:03:36.200 --> 2:03:41.480 City bombing and domestic terrorism. And in culture April fifteenth, 2:03:41.520 --> 2:03:44.200 nineteen forty seven, Jackie Robinson steps onto a baseball field 2:03:44.560 --> 2:03:46.920 for the Brooklyn Dodgors. April sixty, two thousand and three, 2:03:46.960 --> 2:03:49.960 Michael Jordan steps off the court for the very last 2:03:50.040 --> 2:03:54.480 time as a Washington Wizard. Yeah, he probably forgot, that's right, 2:03:54.560 --> 2:03:57.840 he did play for the Washington Wizards. I've never forgotten it. 2:03:57.920 --> 2:04:00.400 And I have the basketball cards in pas say ten 2:04:00.440 --> 2:04:02.880 holders to prove it. Okay, but I define, but I 2:04:03.400 --> 2:04:09.080 diverge and look. And while all of those could easily 2:04:09.360 --> 2:04:12.080 be worth its own dime, dive and we could have 2:04:12.200 --> 2:04:14.600 tentacles of the impact the long term impacts of all 2:04:14.680 --> 2:04:18.360 of them, it's a group of exiles on a beach 2:04:18.440 --> 2:04:21.600 in Cuba that we're about to define the limits of 2:04:21.640 --> 2:04:25.000 American power that I want to focus on, because there's 2:04:25.080 --> 2:04:27.760 echoes here for the current situation in Iran and of 2:04:27.840 --> 2:04:32.800 course what could be coming next in Cuba. So let 2:04:32.840 --> 2:04:34.280 me start with that. So we're doing the Bay of 2:04:34.360 --> 2:04:38.920 Pigs in case you're wondering, and it's the lung shadow 2:04:39.720 --> 2:04:41.680 of this. Before we get to the invasion, we have 2:04:41.760 --> 2:04:45.520 to start with something a bit uncomfortable. The United States 2:04:45.560 --> 2:04:48.320 didn't just lose Cuba, it misread it. For years, the 2:04:48.440 --> 2:04:52.160 US backed a gentleman by the name of Flujencio Batista 2:04:53.440 --> 2:04:57.840 until he became indefensible. So when Fidel Castro takes power 2:04:57.880 --> 2:05:01.240 in nineteen fifty nine, Washington doesn't immediately slam the door 2:05:01.280 --> 2:05:06.440 and working with Castro. But it wasn't warm either. Castro 2:05:06.560 --> 2:05:10.360 comes and visits the United States, but Dwight Eisenhower refuses 2:05:10.400 --> 2:05:14.880 to meet with him. He goes golfing and Richard Nixon 2:05:15.440 --> 2:05:18.720 meets with him instead the vice president, and it tells 2:05:18.720 --> 2:05:20.840 you everything you need to know. This wasn't a clean break, 2:05:21.960 --> 2:05:24.800 but it also wasn't a real opening. By the time 2:05:25.000 --> 2:05:29.200 Washington decides that Castro is a problem, the relationship is 2:05:29.240 --> 2:05:32.240 already slipping away. Now I have my own little interesting 2:05:33.280 --> 2:05:36.320 history here, a little bit. My grandfather I stumbled across 2:05:36.360 --> 2:05:40.920 some things he was building sugarcane help. He was an 2:05:40.960 --> 2:05:43.880 engineer on sugarcane plants that they were building in Cuba 2:05:44.200 --> 2:05:47.440 in the mid to late fifties. And one of the 2:05:47.520 --> 2:05:50.280 stories he says is he said he would be visited 2:05:50.360 --> 2:05:53.280 by Cia folks every once in a while to ask 2:05:53.360 --> 2:05:55.520 them about Castro because he was in the role part. 2:05:55.600 --> 2:05:58.960 So he met Castro. And in order for Castro's rebels 2:05:59.040 --> 2:06:00.800 to sort of leave your business this alone, if you 2:06:00.880 --> 2:06:03.280 agreed to just put a photo up in your sort 2:06:03.320 --> 2:06:06.800 of trailer office, if you can think about those trailer 2:06:06.880 --> 2:06:09.240 offices that are parts of these you know sort of 2:06:10.920 --> 2:06:12.920 you know, his factories are being built right and things 2:06:13.000 --> 2:06:17.800 like that. And because I remember I found this eight 2:06:17.840 --> 2:06:20.680 by ten glossy of my grandfather while we were cleaning 2:06:20.720 --> 2:06:23.160 some stuff up. Fidel Castro was like, Grandpa, what's this 2:06:24.160 --> 2:06:27.880 And he said it was basically it was basically proof 2:06:27.960 --> 2:06:32.360 that you that you paid to get left alone. But 2:06:32.560 --> 2:06:34.920 that was the point he would make. He told me 2:06:35.040 --> 2:06:38.200 that he would make to these CIA sort of whatever 2:06:38.200 --> 2:06:40.160 you want to call them, officers, people that were just 2:06:40.280 --> 2:06:42.080 trying to find out information, What could you tell us 2:06:42.080 --> 2:06:44.640 about Castro? And he'd say, Hey, it's not a good guy, 2:06:45.160 --> 2:06:50.200 so be careful. But there was a real back and forth. 2:06:50.240 --> 2:06:52.280 How much should they be they were they were trying 2:06:52.320 --> 2:06:55.480 to see it was it worth sort of wrapping their 2:06:55.560 --> 2:06:58.160 arms around Castro? And it was a constant back and 2:06:58.280 --> 2:07:03.640 forth at that time. But let's zoom out, okay, because 2:07:03.640 --> 2:07:05.720 none of this is happening in isolation. This is early 2:07:05.840 --> 2:07:09.400 nineteen sixty one, when the Bay of Pigs itself happens. 2:07:10.400 --> 2:07:13.920 It's a world that's still rattled by Spotnik and shaped 2:07:13.920 --> 2:07:15.920 by the fear of a missile gap that the new 2:07:16.000 --> 2:07:20.400 young president John Kennedy had run on. So Cold War 2:07:20.560 --> 2:07:25.600 tensions are super high, and just months after the Bay 2:07:25.640 --> 2:07:28.800 of Pigs August nineteen sixty one, they'd be construction of 2:07:28.840 --> 2:07:32.240 the actual Berlin Wall begins, right, So the Bay of 2:07:32.320 --> 2:07:37.200 Pigs happens just before that sort of iron curtain becomes 2:07:37.360 --> 2:07:41.800 permanent for a period of time, Ambiguity fading sides hardening 2:07:41.880 --> 2:07:45.320 in Cuba, ninety miles from Florida, is now part of 2:07:45.400 --> 2:07:46.480 that global equation. 2:07:49.200 --> 2:07:49.320 Now. 2:07:49.400 --> 2:07:51.680 One thing that people need to remember about the Bay 2:07:51.720 --> 2:07:55.920 of Pigs invasion is that it wasn't a It wasn't 2:07:56.000 --> 2:07:59.800 Kennedy's plan. This plan didn't begin with Kennedy. It begins 2:07:59.840 --> 2:08:03.600 with 'white Eisenhower in March of nineteen sixty he's still president, 2:08:04.320 --> 2:08:06.400 and he directs the CIA to develop a plan to 2:08:06.480 --> 2:08:10.520 remove Castro. So by the time John F. Kennedy takes office, 2:08:10.800 --> 2:08:18.720 this is already a presidential approved operation and the CIA, well, 2:08:18.760 --> 2:08:22.040 this isn't the CIA of today. This is the CIA event, 2:08:23.480 --> 2:08:27.600 a much different CIA than we had now. It's coming 2:08:27.680 --> 2:08:30.680 off what appears to be a winning streak. In nineteen 2:08:30.760 --> 2:08:34.320 fifty three Iranian coup, something that the time Machine tackled 2:08:34.360 --> 2:08:37.960 a few weeks ago. Guatemala nineteen fifty four was a 2:08:38.000 --> 2:08:43.720 successful CIA inspired coup. Small operations, weak resistance, quick wins, 2:08:44.800 --> 2:08:47.440 so it created a bit of a trap. Success becomes 2:08:47.520 --> 2:08:52.480 confidence for the CIA. Confidence becomes assumption, and assumption becomes strategy. 2:08:53.120 --> 2:08:56.920 They think they've seen this before. Well they hadn't and 2:08:57.000 --> 2:09:00.760 they were fighting the last war. Well, Kennedy walks in. 2:09:01.000 --> 2:09:03.600 He's the youngest elected president in American history at the time, 2:09:03.680 --> 2:09:08.360 forty three, so he's new, he's unproven, and he's under pressure. 2:09:09.000 --> 2:09:13.360 And this plan, it was already moving. The training camps 2:09:14.240 --> 2:09:19.080 were already happening, the exiles to participate were already recruited, 2:09:19.280 --> 2:09:22.520 the logistics were in place. So the machinery is running. 2:09:22.880 --> 2:09:26.640 So here's the problem Kennedy's facing. It's easier to approve 2:09:26.800 --> 2:09:30.720 something already in motion than to stop it. This is 2:09:30.760 --> 2:09:34.200 what happened to Barack Obama and Bush at the end 2:09:34.280 --> 2:09:37.000 of his term, decided not to approve an increase in 2:09:37.040 --> 2:09:39.320 troops in Afghanistan and let it. Let it be a 2:09:39.360 --> 2:09:43.760 decision the new president makes. Well, he wasn't crazy about it, 2:09:43.880 --> 2:09:46.280 but what was he going to do stop it? It 2:09:46.400 --> 2:09:48.160 was too early in his presidency to do that. So 2:09:48.280 --> 2:09:50.520 what does he do. He ends up adding more troops 2:09:50.560 --> 2:09:53.960 to it. So this is how a previous president can 2:09:54.040 --> 2:09:56.560 somehow tie the hands of an incoming president. And we've 2:09:56.600 --> 2:09:59.680 seen it. This isn't the This is arguably one of 2:09:59.720 --> 2:10:02.720 the earth first times that this happens that you see 2:10:02.800 --> 2:10:07.000 it become a problem for that president. So it is 2:10:07.080 --> 2:10:09.960 easier to approve it, that's something that's already in motion, 2:10:10.080 --> 2:10:12.120 than to stop it. So he doesn't cancel it, but 2:10:12.240 --> 2:10:14.360 he does try to shape it. And this is where 2:10:14.400 --> 2:10:18.680 he makes a mistake. The plan depends on air superiority. 2:10:19.800 --> 2:10:23.839 The CIA uses B twenty six bombers pointed to painted 2:10:23.920 --> 2:10:27.280 to look like their Castro's plans. The cover story that 2:10:27.360 --> 2:10:30.600 it's a mutiny, but the strikes on April fifteen miss 2:10:30.640 --> 2:10:35.120 some key targets, Castro's air force survives and the cover collapses. 2:10:35.880 --> 2:10:39.080 At the United Nations, Adelie Stevenson, the second defends the 2:10:39.160 --> 2:10:42.240 story that he doesn't know is false. When he learns 2:10:42.320 --> 2:10:48.880 the truth, he's humiliated and he reportedly considered resigning. That's 2:10:48.960 --> 2:10:53.080 the cost of plausible deniability. So now Kennedy has a choice, 2:10:53.240 --> 2:10:56.960 does he escalate or pull back? Well, he cancels the 2:10:57.040 --> 2:11:03.320 second air strike, and that's the moment the operation and dies. Now, 2:11:03.360 --> 2:11:06.320 the entire plan rested on one assumption that the Cuban 2:11:06.360 --> 2:11:11.040 people were going to rise up. They don't because by 2:11:11.080 --> 2:11:15.360 then many of the opponents had already fled. The bombings 2:11:15.800 --> 2:11:19.920 ended up rallying support for Castro, and Castro moved fast. 2:11:21.320 --> 2:11:26.120 He arrests more than one hundred thousand suspected opponents, dissidence 2:11:26.200 --> 2:11:31.120 clergy journalists, CIA networks. He clamps down art. The invasion 2:11:31.520 --> 2:11:33.840 doesn't just fail to spark an uprising, it does almost 2:11:33.840 --> 2:11:40.680 the opposite. It helps make one impossible. So April seventeenth, 2:11:41.160 --> 2:11:46.520 Brigade twenty five oh six Lands includes fourteen hundred Cuban exiles. 2:11:47.400 --> 2:11:50.760 They believe they're going home at the Bay of Pigs. 2:11:51.200 --> 2:11:55.640 Bahia de Cochinos was actually named not for pigs, but 2:11:55.920 --> 2:11:59.280 likely for a local fish kind of called a hogfish, 2:12:00.320 --> 2:12:02.960 got shorthanded the Bay of Picks. History gave it a 2:12:03.000 --> 2:12:07.320 better name right, the Bay of Hogfish. By the way, 2:12:07.360 --> 2:12:09.839 the Bay of Pigs ended up giving me my favorite 2:12:09.880 --> 2:12:11.880 laugh line from the nineteen eighties. Being a Green Bay 2:12:11.920 --> 2:12:14.720 Packer fan, the great late Pte Axe Thelm then, I 2:12:14.840 --> 2:12:19.480 write a sportswriter for Newsweek Previews. Back then when Tampa 2:12:19.520 --> 2:12:21.880 Bay and Green Bay meant in football twice a year 2:12:21.880 --> 2:12:24.920 because they were both in the NFC Central, he started 2:12:25.000 --> 2:12:27.680 referring to the matchup as the Bay of Pigs. But 2:12:27.800 --> 2:12:32.200 I digress, so now we're back in nineteen sixty one, 2:12:32.240 --> 2:12:36.440 within forty eight hours. By April nineteenth, the mission is over, defeated, 2:12:37.080 --> 2:12:39.840 exiles captured. And it wasn't because of cowardice. It was 2:12:39.880 --> 2:12:45.360 because the assumptions were wrong from the start. The aftershocks 2:12:45.440 --> 2:12:48.400 we're still living with them. The consequences don't stop there. 2:12:48.480 --> 2:12:52.080 The failure ends up strengthening Castro shapes. How Nikita Krushchev 2:12:52.120 --> 2:12:56.640 sees Kennedy, that perception carries forward a year later, Soviet 2:12:56.680 --> 2:13:00.200 missiles in Cuba they test the young president again. Most 2:13:00.280 --> 2:13:02.760 dangerous moment in the Cold War may not have ever happened, 2:13:02.880 --> 2:13:06.080 the Cuban missile crisis, if not for the failure of 2:13:06.200 --> 2:13:10.480 the Bay of Pigs invasion. So that was first evidence 2:13:10.480 --> 2:13:12.440 that the Bay of Pigs didn't stay. In nineteen sixty one, 2:13:13.840 --> 2:13:16.040 more than eleven hundred members of Brigade twenty five oh 2:13:16.120 --> 2:13:19.560 six are captured. Eventually they're released in exchange for fifty 2:13:19.640 --> 2:13:22.920 three million dollars in food, in medicine. But the defining 2:13:22.960 --> 2:13:26.240 moment came after in Miami, before tens of thousands of 2:13:26.280 --> 2:13:31.080 Cuban exiles, Kennedy receives the brigade's flag. He's not yet 2:13:31.160 --> 2:13:33.320 they're not angry at Kennedy yet, and he makes a 2:13:33.400 --> 2:13:36.320 promise that it will be returned to a free Havana. 2:13:37.400 --> 2:13:42.680 It never has and that's when failure becomes memory. It 2:13:42.760 --> 2:13:45.640 got turned into a betrayal for Cuban exiles. This wasn't 2:13:45.640 --> 2:13:48.280 about just the United States. This is about John F. Kennedy, 2:13:48.680 --> 2:13:50.960 the belief. He encouraged it, he launched it, and then 2:13:51.000 --> 2:13:53.800 he didn't follow through. That's the way the Cuban axile 2:13:53.880 --> 2:13:58.840 community saw it, and that became a political identity and 2:13:58.920 --> 2:14:00.960 it would stain the Democrat in the eyes of Cuban 2:14:01.040 --> 2:14:07.480 exiles for a lifetime. Now, it didn't happen right away. 2:14:08.280 --> 2:14:11.200 Cubans didn't automatically become Republican right away. It took time. 2:14:11.320 --> 2:14:13.800 In the sixties, the Cuban American voters were still split. 2:14:14.360 --> 2:14:17.920 The memories there, but it's not yet partisan. That changes. 2:14:17.920 --> 2:14:21.160 In nineteen eighty Ronald Reagan wins roughly eighty percent of 2:14:21.160 --> 2:14:24.400 the Cuban American vote. He ends up carrying Florida decisively 2:14:24.440 --> 2:14:27.560 as state Jimmy Carter carried in seventy six. He activates 2:14:27.600 --> 2:14:30.360 the identity and from that point on, Florida becomes something different, 2:14:30.560 --> 2:14:32.560 not just a southern state, but a Cold War state 2:14:34.000 --> 2:14:37.800 shaped by exile, anti communism and memory. And that framework 2:14:37.880 --> 2:14:43.600 expands and later with the waves of immigrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua, 2:14:43.640 --> 2:14:47.680 plug into really the same political model. And if you 2:14:47.720 --> 2:14:51.600 want to see the impact, there's probably no better campaign 2:14:51.640 --> 2:14:54.960 here than the year two thousand. Florida's decided by five 2:14:55.040 --> 2:14:57.720 hundred and thirty seven votes, a state shaped in part 2:14:57.800 --> 2:15:04.080 by the identity born in nineteen sixty one. So when 2:15:04.120 --> 2:15:07.800 you think about this week in history, you think about revolutions, assassinations, 2:15:08.000 --> 2:15:12.480 cultural breakthroughs. Right, the revolutions we just talked about, the 2:15:12.560 --> 2:15:19.240 assassinations Lincoln, the cultural breakthroughs Jackie Robinson, it was moments 2:15:19.280 --> 2:15:21.960 where individuals redefine what's possible. With the Bay of Pigs, 2:15:22.680 --> 2:15:24.800 it's where a group of exiles revealed the limits of 2:15:24.840 --> 2:15:29.000 something else, American power and the power of political memory. 2:15:29.280 --> 2:15:31.560 Because every time a candidate steps onto a stage in 2:15:31.600 --> 2:15:35.520 Miami today, they're not just campaigning, they're still walking in 2:15:35.560 --> 2:15:41.280 the shadow of that beach, the Cochinas, the Bay of Pigs. 2:15:47.960 --> 2:15:53.680 Ass chuck. All right, it's some ass chuck time, So 2:15:53.760 --> 2:15:57.200 let's dig in. First, one comes from David S. Colchester, Connecticut, 2:15:57.320 --> 2:15:59.240 and he writes, Dear Chuck, thanks for the podcast when 2:15:59.280 --> 2:16:01.880 news breaks Part two often these days, I appreciate your 2:16:02.000 --> 2:16:04.080 reasoned perspective. Well, thank you. My question is, when a 2:16:04.160 --> 2:16:07.400 US president can launch massive military actions that deplete our 2:16:07.480 --> 2:16:10.960 arsenal and potentially leaving our military vulnerable, will Congress realistically 2:16:11.000 --> 2:16:13.600 vote to prevent rebuilding? If not, is the power of 2:16:13.640 --> 2:16:15.760 the purse still a viable check on the executive branch. 2:16:16.600 --> 2:16:18.680 You know, that's a fair question, David, because I know 2:16:18.760 --> 2:16:21.160 if I were a member of Congress and I didn't 2:16:21.160 --> 2:16:24.800 approve of this war, I probably would feel uncomfortable not 2:16:24.960 --> 2:16:30.560 replenishing the stockpiles in the Pentagon. And so you're absolutely 2:16:30.680 --> 2:16:34.120 right to sort of, you know, I would, you know, 2:16:34.160 --> 2:16:36.880 I'd like to think i'd be a rational member. And 2:16:38.040 --> 2:16:42.000 you know, it is it is. This is I think 2:16:42.080 --> 2:16:46.320 the the difficulty in using your vote in Congress as 2:16:46.320 --> 2:16:52.000 a protest Bihle and it and it it is a 2:16:52.080 --> 2:16:56.320 way that sometimes presidents know how to jam Congress with this. 2:17:00.760 --> 2:17:03.800 But this is a fair I think this is a 2:17:03.920 --> 2:17:07.560 fair observation. There are no This proves to you there's 2:17:07.600 --> 2:17:11.320 no good options left on this right at number one, 2:17:11.400 --> 2:17:14.520 you just you got to you gotta win the argument 2:17:14.520 --> 2:17:19.200 at the ballot box. Number two, You've got to figure 2:17:19.240 --> 2:17:24.400 out how to I think that it's clear that even 2:17:24.440 --> 2:17:28.800 the war powers act as it stands, we're still got 2:17:29.000 --> 2:17:31.520 questions of whether it's constitutional or not because it's really 2:17:31.640 --> 2:17:38.680 not been fully litigated. That even that gives too much 2:17:38.800 --> 2:17:44.640 leeway and takes away so much of Congress's authority when 2:17:44.680 --> 2:17:52.600 it comes to who makes war, and this you know 2:17:52.680 --> 2:17:56.959 when I don't. What I don't understand is why there's 2:17:57.000 --> 2:18:01.800 not even further attempts to restrict I mean, it goes 2:18:01.879 --> 2:18:03.880 back to why did the founder You know, if you 2:18:04.320 --> 2:18:06.360 care about founders intent, and there's a lot of my 2:18:06.440 --> 2:18:09.320 friends on the right care about founders intent, well, the 2:18:09.400 --> 2:18:12.080 founders never you know, the whole point of this is 2:18:12.080 --> 2:18:14.480 they didn't want you know, they all had memories of 2:18:15.320 --> 2:18:20.199 what these monarchs in Europe did. Remember how I view monarchs. 2:18:20.200 --> 2:18:24.720 They're just dictators with a nicer name. But they made 2:18:24.920 --> 2:18:27.240 They would decide willy nilly when to go to war, 2:18:27.760 --> 2:18:29.600 and they would never send their own folks to war. 2:18:29.600 --> 2:18:33.240 They would send the their populations to war, and you'd 2:18:33.280 --> 2:18:36.160 have to fight on behalf of some treaty that the 2:18:36.320 --> 2:18:39.400 king or your queen signed with another king or queen, 2:18:39.560 --> 2:18:41.600 and maybe that treaty had to do with marriage, and 2:18:41.680 --> 2:18:43.959 maybe that treaty had nothing to do with anything other 2:18:44.040 --> 2:18:46.480 than that, and you would end up going to war 2:18:46.879 --> 2:18:49.840 because you had ties to the right family or wrong family, 2:18:49.959 --> 2:18:52.360 depending on the given time. The point is is that 2:18:52.480 --> 2:18:55.320 the founders did not want an American president to be 2:18:55.400 --> 2:18:58.280 able to do the same thing, and yet in theory 2:18:58.360 --> 2:19:02.560 that's what we already have. So I think there needs 2:19:02.600 --> 2:19:05.199 to be better clarification here, and that the War Powers 2:19:05.320 --> 2:19:09.280 Act doesn't do it in sixty days is probably too much. 2:19:10.360 --> 2:19:13.440 It probably needs to be I think a commander in 2:19:13.520 --> 2:19:15.680 chief needs to be able to respond in defense of 2:19:15.720 --> 2:19:20.640 the United States. Hard stop was a run at all 2:19:20.720 --> 2:19:24.320 in defense of the in the immediate needs to defend 2:19:24.320 --> 2:19:27.480 the United States and the immediate It's hard to come 2:19:27.560 --> 2:19:32.120 up with evidence that it is. But look, you point 2:19:32.200 --> 2:19:36.320 out a real gap here in that, Yes, Congress is 2:19:36.360 --> 2:19:39.000 the power of the purse, but basically they would have 2:19:39.120 --> 2:19:42.840 to they're cutting off their nose despite their faces. Essentially 2:19:43.560 --> 2:19:46.240 what you're pointing out if they decide not to replenish 2:19:46.280 --> 2:19:49.400 our stockpiles, because then We're suddenly more vulnerable and that's 2:19:49.440 --> 2:19:53.880 also bad. Thanks for the lose lose question there, David. 2:19:54.160 --> 2:19:56.879 But it's an important thing you pointed out, and I'm 2:19:56.920 --> 2:19:59.800 sorry I didn't sooner, so thank you. Zach has an 2:19:59.800 --> 2:20:02.160 next question. He writes, Hey, Chuck, the Zach from Cleveland, 2:20:02.280 --> 2:20:06.000 your resident Buckeye. I have a lot of people who 2:20:06.040 --> 2:20:08.520 want to claim resident Buckeye Zach, just so you know, 2:20:09.680 --> 2:20:14.280 but I'll let you be a resident buck Eye. I'm 2:20:14.320 --> 2:20:17.560 not going to be like my buddy TK. You know, 2:20:17.959 --> 2:20:21.000 you have to come up with very specific title names 2:20:21.040 --> 2:20:22.880 to be the to be the resident. Maybe you're the 2:20:22.920 --> 2:20:26.800 resident buck Eye from Cleveland. Names act anyway, But I digress. 2:20:28.040 --> 2:20:30.880 You believe this is your fourth time getting a question 2:20:31.040 --> 2:20:35.879 on the show, and if so, congratulations. We will start looking. 2:20:35.959 --> 2:20:39.480 We gotta we gotta find some merch We're gonna start 2:20:39.480 --> 2:20:42.840 working on that. But he said, just a quick one 2:20:42.920 --> 2:20:45.080 here for you. Why is the market not really reacting 2:20:45.120 --> 2:20:46.800 to this war? I keep hearing it's probably the worst 2:20:46.840 --> 2:20:49.240 ever oil crisis, or it will be, but I thought 2:20:49.280 --> 2:20:51.400 the markets would fare worse, even though gas is four 2:20:51.440 --> 2:20:54.039 dollars is because of market manipulations. Axtra starting a correct 2:20:54.080 --> 2:20:56.480 or is it just too early to tell go guards? 2:21:01.080 --> 2:21:04.600 Is that the accepted sort of shortening of the Guardians? 2:21:06.040 --> 2:21:09.760 You know, I'm I still struggle. I still say the 2:21:09.800 --> 2:21:14.480 eye word every once in a while. Guards. I think 2:21:14.520 --> 2:21:17.560 we all agree Guardians, the fact that they're named after 2:21:19.280 --> 2:21:24.480 bridge statues guarding traffic. I don't know's. I know it's 2:21:24.560 --> 2:21:28.000 harder and harder to copyright nicknames than ever. I mean, 2:21:28.000 --> 2:21:29.800 trust me, I went through the process with my with 2:21:29.959 --> 2:21:34.320 GW and the Revolutionaries, not exactly, I mean, go revs. 2:21:34.440 --> 2:21:36.520 We like that it's a little close to REVS. I 2:21:36.560 --> 2:21:40.160 don't know if everybody loves that, but you know, it's 2:21:40.680 --> 2:21:43.320 it could have been worse, and I guess that's probably 2:21:43.320 --> 2:21:44.800 the way to look at the Guardians. It could have 2:21:44.840 --> 2:21:48.240 been worse. Let me do it with the question yourself, 2:21:48.240 --> 2:21:49.760 because I'd like to think I dealt with a little 2:21:49.760 --> 2:21:53.320 bit of monologue. I I think that there's I think 2:21:53.400 --> 2:21:56.440 there's a little bit of of AI. There's still a 2:21:56.520 --> 2:21:58.400 sort of an the AI bubble that sort of kept 2:21:58.440 --> 2:22:03.240 things up. It does take longer for the oil shocks 2:22:03.280 --> 2:22:05.280 to break through because a lot more countries have been 2:22:05.840 --> 2:22:08.960 smarter about keeping a stockpile and things like that, and 2:22:09.000 --> 2:22:15.280 there's still some diversification and energy. But I do think, well, 2:22:16.000 --> 2:22:19.000 you know, the market can make every predictor look like 2:22:19.040 --> 2:22:21.520 an idiot. And I'm taping this before the market's open 2:22:22.320 --> 2:22:24.879 this morning. You may be listening to it after the markets, 2:22:25.560 --> 2:22:27.320 but I have a feeling this is the week that 2:22:27.400 --> 2:22:30.560 we start to see the to see the real negative 2:22:30.560 --> 2:22:33.600 impact start to start to hit. And then you know 2:22:33.760 --> 2:22:35.720 we're going to get You'll start to get the next 2:22:35.920 --> 2:22:38.760 you know, that next round of quarterly earnings reports that come, 2:22:40.440 --> 2:22:42.840 that'll that'll be coming, you know, May and June and 2:22:42.959 --> 2:22:45.800 all of that. That's you know, that's where you'll start 2:22:45.840 --> 2:22:49.240 to see. I mean that Michigan consumer confidence number lowest 2:22:49.240 --> 2:22:53.600 ever essentially since they started taking it. It's coming. I 2:22:53.720 --> 2:23:00.680 hate the you know, so just don't don't get rid 2:23:00.720 --> 2:23:05.480 of the sandbags. You know, you may think that you know, 2:23:05.800 --> 2:23:07.880 you've been told to prepare for a category five storm. 2:23:07.959 --> 2:23:11.360 Oh the storm. Maybe it's not coming. Don't take down 2:23:11.400 --> 2:23:15.760 the sand bags, don't take off the ply one. Next 2:23:15.840 --> 2:23:18.240 question comes from John and mil Milwaukee. Hey, you said, 2:23:18.280 --> 2:23:21.080 Democrats responding to Republican redistaputing with similar tactics may not 2:23:21.160 --> 2:23:22.920 be the right approach, But is there an argument for 2:23:23.040 --> 2:23:25.080 using every available tool while they still have the power 2:23:25.120 --> 2:23:27.560 to do so? More broadly, as political norms continue to 2:23:27.600 --> 2:23:29.440 be tested, do you think Congress will step in to 2:23:29.520 --> 2:23:31.240 assert its role as a check or are we moving 2:23:31.280 --> 2:23:34.199 into a period where those guardrails are even weaker For contexts, 2:23:34.200 --> 2:23:35.680 I'm not coming at this from the far left. I 2:23:35.760 --> 2:23:38.280 vote a Republican from seventy six to eight. Just trying 2:23:38.320 --> 2:23:41.640 to understand where things stand. John and Milwaukee. Well, can 2:23:41.680 --> 2:23:43.560 I go back to another point in the redistricting thing. 2:23:46.240 --> 2:23:50.840 I think that you have a better mandate if you win, 2:23:53.920 --> 2:24:00.280 if you win space with fair maps, if you have 2:24:00.360 --> 2:24:02.560 to rig the maps to get control of Congress, is 2:24:02.640 --> 2:24:04.720 it going to be a majority? That is take that 2:24:05.480 --> 2:24:11.879 that is that has I mean, I think it has 2:24:12.000 --> 2:24:14.960 legitimacy in the eyes of the public. That's what I 2:24:15.000 --> 2:24:17.960 would fear, and that should be a fear. And I 2:24:18.040 --> 2:24:26.039 go back, Look, I get I'm specifically I specifically focus 2:24:26.120 --> 2:24:28.640 on this Virginia thing, obviously because I live here. But 2:24:28.879 --> 2:24:33.320 it's it's a lot of it's a lot of effort, 2:24:33.480 --> 2:24:36.960 it's a lot of political capital being spent for two districts, 2:24:37.240 --> 2:24:39.560 and if two districts are the difference between winning power 2:24:39.600 --> 2:24:41.440 and losing power. You're not going to have it is 2:24:41.560 --> 2:24:46.680 literally control and name only, so you know it's it's 2:24:46.840 --> 2:24:55.160 a It's one of those things that I just think 2:24:56.520 --> 2:24:58.680 if you're looking to rep do you want to be 2:24:58.800 --> 2:25:01.960 the party that can repair things are not? And if 2:25:02.000 --> 2:25:06.600 you're also if it's all reactionary, I just I don't 2:25:06.600 --> 2:25:10.920 think the public is going to fully embrace that either. 2:25:14.600 --> 2:25:18.920 I understand you got to look it's I think the 2:25:19.000 --> 2:25:21.040 real lesson here is use power better when you have 2:25:21.160 --> 2:25:25.720 it right. And Democrats have watched it the last couple 2:25:25.720 --> 2:25:27.680 of times they've had it. I can't botch it this 2:25:27.840 --> 2:25:31.880 next time when they have when they get all three 2:25:35.879 --> 2:25:38.320 or it's just impossible to ever succeed when you have 2:25:38.440 --> 2:25:42.080 all three. It's not like any party can hold it 2:25:42.160 --> 2:25:44.680 for more than two years. The question is what do 2:25:44.760 --> 2:25:49.160 you get done into you turn the corner? And I 2:25:49.240 --> 2:25:52.440 think sometimes we look at and I think it's fair. 2:25:52.480 --> 2:25:54.400 I think some some on the left look at the 2:25:54.560 --> 2:25:57.360 election of Trump and sixteen and think, well, it turns 2:25:57.360 --> 2:25:59.440 out Obama should have done more, should have pushed harder. 2:25:59.440 --> 2:26:02.080 It wouldn't have if Trump was coming anyway, what would 2:26:02.120 --> 2:26:05.920 you have done if you knew that? Right? So I 2:26:05.959 --> 2:26:07.840 guess that that's going to be that's going to be 2:26:07.920 --> 2:26:11.840 one of the arguments. But as for Congress, I think 2:26:11.920 --> 2:26:15.760 that's a I think that's a guardrail. I think it's 2:26:15.800 --> 2:26:18.040 so weak that it can't get weaker that I do 2:26:18.200 --> 2:26:20.120 think you're going to have more and more members of 2:26:20.200 --> 2:26:24.720 Congress getting elected hoping to stop imperial presidencies. Maybe I'm 2:26:25.080 --> 2:26:28.440 maybe I'm being Pollyannish here, but I you know. 2:26:30.280 --> 2:26:30.600 It is. 2:26:32.120 --> 2:26:34.320 We have we have when you go through as many, 2:26:34.879 --> 2:26:37.040 the more one term presidents we have, the more we're 2:26:37.080 --> 2:26:39.920 going to look to strengthen the other elected institution, the 2:26:40.040 --> 2:26:45.400 legislative branch. So I think that even though the presidency 2:26:45.520 --> 2:26:48.360 keeps getting strengthened, one term presidencies or a sign of 2:26:48.440 --> 2:26:51.280 weakness of the president. So in theory, Congress should have 2:26:51.400 --> 2:26:55.720 should be able to accumulate its power back. But I 2:26:55.720 --> 2:26:57.400 don't have a good I'm going to answer for you, 2:26:57.480 --> 2:26:59.440 because I get it you have one side that's willing 2:26:59.480 --> 2:27:02.400 to cheat. I just don't think and break norms and 2:27:02.520 --> 2:27:05.200 rules and all those things. And I just you know, 2:27:06.160 --> 2:27:09.080 I believe that that the elections that the Democrats have 2:27:09.160 --> 2:27:12.280 succeeded in are because they've made the case to this 2:27:12.600 --> 2:27:14.480 group of voters in the middle. They're not in the 2:27:14.560 --> 2:27:17.200 middle because of they're ideologically. They're in the middle because 2:27:17.480 --> 2:27:20.520 they should. They don't expect to get one hundred percent 2:27:20.560 --> 2:27:24.840 of of everything. They understand that this is essentially a 2:27:24.959 --> 2:27:29.440 compromise system, and they don't like the hardcore partisanship, and 2:27:29.520 --> 2:27:33.199 they keep voting against any party that behaves too partisanally. 2:27:34.560 --> 2:27:39.240 And there's a difference between partisanship and ideology, right you 2:27:39.840 --> 2:27:42.120 You know, Bertie Sanders is a good example of this. 2:27:42.560 --> 2:27:45.680 He's super progressive, but he wasn't so progressive that he 2:27:45.720 --> 2:27:49.119 said no to the to basically the Mitt Romney Obama 2:27:49.280 --> 2:27:52.560 version of how you do healthcare. He doesn't believe in it, 2:27:52.720 --> 2:27:55.480 he doesn't think it's good, but he didn't let the 2:27:55.640 --> 2:27:59.200 enemy the perfect be the enemy of an improvement, and 2:27:59.320 --> 2:28:01.879 that was what our fact. Look, you can come from 2:28:02.120 --> 2:28:06.760 far left to far right, but if you incrementally feel 2:28:06.800 --> 2:28:09.000 as if you're making incremental progress, do you just stand 2:28:09.040 --> 2:28:12.360 on ceremony or do you try to help the majority function? 2:28:14.280 --> 2:28:18.560 And I think that's I think that's Democrats have had 2:28:18.840 --> 2:28:23.480 more success winning over that voter because the Republicans have 2:28:23.560 --> 2:28:26.200 been behaving so parsonally, and when Democrats start behaving the 2:28:26.240 --> 2:28:30.760 same way as they did during the first two years 2:28:30.800 --> 2:28:33.960 of Biden's presidency, it's why there was such a revolt 2:28:34.720 --> 2:28:37.760 by the same group of voters the other way. It's 2:28:37.840 --> 2:28:39.720 not that they liked the policies of the right, they 2:28:39.760 --> 2:28:46.240 didn't like the hardcore partisanship on either side. Next one 2:28:46.280 --> 2:28:48.360 comes from Jane New York. He says, check love your 2:28:48.400 --> 2:28:50.600 weekly top five list, especially when you revisit the year's 2:28:50.680 --> 2:28:53.320 most flippable Senate races. But I'm beginning to wonder whether 2:28:53.360 --> 2:28:56.080 the top five might soon be sentenced. Tone I am too, 2:28:56.600 --> 2:28:58.720 and am therefore more curious about the races that would 2:28:58.720 --> 2:29:01.199 make up slots six through ten. I like where you're thinking, 2:29:02.720 --> 2:29:04.920 and let's just say this is an idea that I 2:29:05.000 --> 2:29:07.560 might put into practice sooner than I realized. Anyway, if 2:29:07.560 --> 2:29:09.480 you were going to compile a six through ten list today, 2:29:09.959 --> 2:29:12.240 would you be more inclined to include Democratic health seats 2:29:12.280 --> 2:29:14.560 like Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, Or might you be 2:29:14.640 --> 2:29:17.279 more inclined to include Republican health seats like Texas, Iowa, 2:29:17.320 --> 2:29:19.560 and Florida. My opinion six or ten is where we 2:29:19.560 --> 2:29:21.800 will have see the Senate mapp changing the most in 2:29:21.879 --> 2:29:27.800 real time. That's an excellent observation, and I think you're 2:29:27.959 --> 2:29:30.879 right right. I think right now both Georgia and New 2:29:30.920 --> 2:29:36.480 Hampshire they're not in the in, you know, and there's 2:29:36.520 --> 2:29:38.320 no way I would have them outside the top ten. 2:29:39.480 --> 2:29:41.080 I'm not a If you know a race is going 2:29:41.160 --> 2:29:43.279 to be decided by less than ten points, it's probably 2:29:43.360 --> 2:29:45.080 in the top ten, right And when I start thinking 2:29:45.080 --> 2:29:50.040 about the less than ten point center races, you know, 2:29:53.200 --> 2:29:55.240 by the way, I'm not one hundred percent sure North 2:29:55.280 --> 2:29:59.040 Carolina stay single digits anymore. I think Cooper's got that 2:29:59.080 --> 2:30:01.520 big of the lead. Look Whatley will spend money and 2:30:02.520 --> 2:30:04.840 one will assume the partisan stuff. But if this war 2:30:04.959 --> 2:30:09.160 keeps going as badly as it does, I could easily 2:30:09.240 --> 2:30:12.640 see a Bob Casey like, not quite the Bob Casey 2:30:12.760 --> 2:30:15.360 size of victory over rick a citting senator in Rix 2:30:15.360 --> 2:30:18.279 s Aintrum, but I could I could see a fifty 2:30:18.360 --> 2:30:22.560 six forty four race there. But going down the rest 2:30:22.600 --> 2:30:24.760 of the Senate map sort of in order right now 2:30:24.840 --> 2:30:26.959 where my head is at right, the next one that's 2:30:27.000 --> 2:30:29.920 most likely to flip would be main right, that's too. 2:30:30.080 --> 2:30:33.520 The next one for me is probably Ohio. Now that's three. 2:30:33.640 --> 2:30:35.080 The next one after that I would go ahead and 2:30:35.120 --> 2:30:39.320 put Alaska at four, and then you know, right then 2:30:39.400 --> 2:30:41.640 you then you sit there is at Michigan because the 2:30:41.720 --> 2:30:44.560 Democratic primary is still so unstable or is it Texas 2:30:45.160 --> 2:30:47.920 or the Republican primary is still unstable? Right, you know, 2:30:48.000 --> 2:30:51.320 I would say if corn and wins, I put Michigan there. 2:30:51.560 --> 2:30:56.040 If but if Si ed else, I'll do all sied wins, 2:30:56.080 --> 2:30:59.280 then I might put Michigan there too, right, so you 2:30:59.400 --> 2:31:03.680 have that. I'm not I don't think Miss I am 2:31:03.920 --> 2:31:09.400 surprised at how little national the Washington Republicans are viewing, 2:31:10.240 --> 2:31:13.440 how little they're They're spending more time in New Hampshire 2:31:13.480 --> 2:31:15.520 than they are Minnesota, and I think that's just a mistake. 2:31:16.120 --> 2:31:17.879 I think they have a better shot at flipping Minnesota 2:31:17.920 --> 2:31:22.080 than do New Hampshire. I think Pappas, I think, especially 2:31:22.200 --> 2:31:26.080 if a more progressive lieutenant governor who you know, the 2:31:26.160 --> 2:31:29.040 lieutenant governor, the Tim Walls, who's not very popular in 2:31:29.080 --> 2:31:32.280 Minnesota right now, and that's who Peggy Flann again, maybe 2:31:32.480 --> 2:31:36.160 I think Michelle Tafoya, Peggy Flanagan. I think Republicans are 2:31:36.160 --> 2:31:39.200 a better shot oft Tafoya upsetting flannagain than so New 2:31:39.280 --> 2:31:47.440 New upsetting Pappas. But I get that New Hampshire on 2:31:47.560 --> 2:31:53.000 a partisan scale looks slightly more, you know, has a 2:31:53.040 --> 2:31:57.800 higher floor for Republicans and Minnesota does. But either way, 2:31:57.879 --> 2:31:59.840 I expect those to be single digit races. So they 2:32:00.040 --> 2:32:02.320 sit out there, you know, I do think Minnesota is 2:32:02.320 --> 2:32:06.080 the sort of in any other year would probably be 2:32:06.080 --> 2:32:09.440 getting a little more attention. But I am I am surprised, 2:32:09.440 --> 2:32:12.160 and clovers are will probably guarantees that that she'll carry 2:32:12.160 --> 2:32:15.200 everybody over the finish line on the DEMB side. And 2:32:15.320 --> 2:32:17.800 then may be why they look and would rather have 2:32:17.959 --> 2:32:20.360 New Hampshire because you have a Republican incumbent that's likely 2:32:20.440 --> 2:32:23.240 to win reelection in Kelly a Ya. Who remember in 2:32:23.280 --> 2:32:25.440 New Hampshire they run every two years and she'll be 2:32:25.480 --> 2:32:30.120 the top of the ticket. But you start looking around, right, 2:32:30.160 --> 2:32:32.160 Iowa looks like it's gonna be a single digit race. 2:32:33.240 --> 2:32:37.600 Hey what about Eugene Vinman down in Florida? Right, He's 2:32:37.720 --> 2:32:41.320 raised a ton of money. I'm a bit skeptical, but 2:32:42.879 --> 2:32:44.959 could I see it become a single digit race? 2:32:45.000 --> 2:32:45.360 I could. 2:32:48.800 --> 2:32:51.920 There's Nebraska, which looks like it's definitely I think it's 2:32:52.040 --> 2:32:53.840 more likely to be five points or less no matter 2:32:53.879 --> 2:32:57.040 what they're so, and we haven't gotten to Kansas. We 2:32:57.200 --> 2:33:02.600 haven't seen that race mature yet. There's Montana. So to 2:33:02.920 --> 2:33:05.040 sort of get at the heart of your question, you 2:33:05.200 --> 2:33:09.480 have made six through ten. That's a lot of fun 2:33:10.680 --> 2:33:13.360 and I'm gonna have to really sort of I can't 2:33:13.440 --> 2:33:15.400 just spitball it because I sit here and you're like, well, 2:33:15.560 --> 2:33:18.320 you know, we got and some of this is still undeveloped, right, 2:33:18.400 --> 2:33:20.120 I want to see where it can. I still feel 2:33:20.160 --> 2:33:23.640 like we're not done yet with Kansas, so we get there. 2:33:23.680 --> 2:33:28.120 But what a great idea and look for it, you know, 2:33:28.240 --> 2:33:31.080 sort of how do we say that? And for this 2:33:31.160 --> 2:33:33.960 week's top five, it's the next five? I don't know, 2:33:34.640 --> 2:33:36.760 Lauren and I will work on that, coming up with 2:33:36.800 --> 2:33:39.080 something for that. But it's a good idea. Next question 2:33:39.400 --> 2:33:41.440 comes from Troy says, here's my idea for the NBA. 2:33:41.520 --> 2:33:44.320 Eliminate conferences and divisions, move to a shorter home and 2:33:44.320 --> 2:33:47.000 away schedule, Take the top sixteen teams for the playoffs, 2:33:47.000 --> 2:33:49.920 regardless of vocation. To make up for fewer games at 2:33:49.959 --> 2:33:52.920 a preseason, single elimination tournament with semifinals on Christmas to 2:33:53.000 --> 2:33:55.560 drive fan interest in revenue. It could also create multiple 2:33:55.600 --> 2:33:58.720 championship opportunities each season, tournament, regular season or playoffs. Troy, 2:33:59.360 --> 2:34:02.360 it sounds like the Champions League a little bit in 2:34:02.480 --> 2:34:05.600 Europe and all the various European leagues. Look, this is 2:34:05.640 --> 2:34:10.160 an I don't I like what you're what you're thinking. 2:34:10.280 --> 2:34:13.760 The reason, you know, this biggest impediment in his owners 2:34:13.840 --> 2:34:17.520 make owners get to pocket the money that takes place 2:34:17.560 --> 2:34:20.640 in their arenas. So taking away opportunities in their own 2:34:20.680 --> 2:34:23.160 arenas is just not on the table. So we all 2:34:23.200 --> 2:34:25.240 know they probably should shrink the regular season schedule, but 2:34:25.280 --> 2:34:29.119 they won't. And you know, you're right to find other 2:34:29.160 --> 2:34:31.880 ways to replace it. Is it tournaments? Maybe that doesn't. 2:34:32.400 --> 2:34:34.560 But you know, I was thinking about something else about 2:34:34.560 --> 2:34:39.520 the NBA, and I was wondering. You know, I was 2:34:39.600 --> 2:34:45.680 watching John Rahm play at the Masters, and I was like, 2:34:45.840 --> 2:34:50.400 he doesn't have a chance. But you know, every everything 2:34:50.480 --> 2:34:52.600 he moves up right, there's other things you play for 2:34:52.680 --> 2:34:54.680 in the Masters. If you win, you get into the 2:34:54.800 --> 2:34:57.480 certain I think if it's if you're in the top twenty, 2:34:57.560 --> 2:35:00.680 you automatically get an invite the next year. I think 2:35:01.120 --> 2:35:05.280 then there's certainly you get there's different financial rewards depending 2:35:05.320 --> 2:35:07.960 on the place you finish, and so it got me thinking, 2:35:08.160 --> 2:35:10.440 is there a way to create a financial reward for 2:35:10.600 --> 2:35:16.119 players based on their regular season? You know that that essentially, 2:35:16.320 --> 2:35:19.240 just like with golf, if you finish thirty fifth, you 2:35:19.320 --> 2:35:21.560 make more money than if you finish thirty six. So there's, 2:35:21.920 --> 2:35:26.640 in theory, an incentive to keep playing hard. So if 2:35:26.680 --> 2:35:29.280 there is more money on the table, more bonus money, 2:35:29.360 --> 2:35:32.160 more this money, more that money. Maybe it's maybe it's 2:35:32.200 --> 2:35:35.720 the playoff TV revenue that players get, you know, maybe 2:35:35.760 --> 2:35:38.960 there's a pool of it that all players get to 2:35:39.320 --> 2:35:44.000 get some of it depending on where their team finishes 2:35:44.920 --> 2:35:49.960 in the overall standings of the league. But for if 2:35:50.000 --> 2:35:52.680 you if you you know right now, it's the franchises 2:35:52.720 --> 2:35:54.320 that I've on the incentive and the players have no 2:35:54.440 --> 2:35:57.000 skin in the game, right if they're you know, the 2:35:57.080 --> 2:36:00.360 players play hard, I've I don't. I don't sit here 2:36:00.360 --> 2:36:01.920 and say the players aren't playing hard. They all are 2:36:02.000 --> 2:36:05.160 playing hard. It is the coaches being ordered by the 2:36:05.240 --> 2:36:07.960 GMS and the and the and the team presidents to 2:36:08.160 --> 2:36:11.120 not play certain players to keep them out, you know, 2:36:11.240 --> 2:36:15.560 to bench them in the fourth quarter. Players would fight 2:36:15.680 --> 2:36:18.800 and push back harder if there were financial penalties for 2:36:18.959 --> 2:36:22.080 losing a more likely to lose a game. So you know, 2:36:23.000 --> 2:36:26.440 is there something to borrow from golf that keeps people 2:36:26.560 --> 2:36:29.480 playing competitively even when they have no shot at winning 2:36:29.520 --> 2:36:34.080 the tournament. Just something to think about. But look, there's 2:36:34.120 --> 2:36:36.600 a million ideas to fix this. Hey, Adam Silver, just 2:36:36.640 --> 2:36:41.520 pick one and do it. Thank you, buddy. Last question, 2:36:42.959 --> 2:36:44.960 I love this. I'm going to call you John from 2:36:45.000 --> 2:36:48.600 Cincinnati because of the damn HBO show. I'm sure you 2:36:48.680 --> 2:36:51.440 don't like that. Maybe you do. Let me know. By 2:36:51.480 --> 2:36:58.080 the way, I'm still waiting for I didn't get my lyrics. 2:36:58.400 --> 2:37:00.200 We didn't start the fire lyrics. One of you still 2:37:00.200 --> 2:37:02.160 ows me we didn't. You're updated, we didn't start the 2:37:02.200 --> 2:37:05.879 fire lyrics. And I await that, and so many people 2:37:05.920 --> 2:37:07.840 await that because they would like me to carry ok it. 2:37:08.000 --> 2:37:12.040 But anyway, last question, John from Cincinnati, and he writes, 2:37:12.080 --> 2:37:14.119 I haven't heard of a single report of President Trump 2:37:14.200 --> 2:37:16.800 going to Camp David in his second term. Does anyone 2:37:16.920 --> 2:37:19.960 use it? Since he doesn't isn't loaned out of political donors? 2:37:20.040 --> 2:37:22.200 Or possibly misused. I was never a big fan of 2:37:22.200 --> 2:37:24.200 the Lincoln Bedroom being used that way by presidents of 2:37:24.280 --> 2:37:26.080 any party. I've been listening to your show for about 2:37:26.080 --> 2:37:28.160 three months and really enjoy it. Thanks and go Buck 2:37:28.160 --> 2:37:32.480 Guys and Reds John in Cincinnati. That's a good question. 2:37:32.879 --> 2:37:35.840 I think, Look, we know why Trump didn't like it, 2:37:35.840 --> 2:37:39.320 and he likes the golf right, and he likes his 2:37:40.280 --> 2:37:43.200 set up any and he's actually not an introvert like 2:37:43.320 --> 2:37:46.800 Camp David is for the presidents. You know, he's one 2:37:46.840 --> 2:37:49.680 of the few people, you know, most celebrities I've ever 2:37:49.760 --> 2:37:52.080 gotten to know, the last thing they want to do 2:37:52.280 --> 2:37:56.080 is to be in public. That's not Donald Trump. He 2:37:56.240 --> 2:38:01.600 loves to be around people. I've got my own theories. 2:38:01.640 --> 2:38:03.960 He doesn't have a lot of personal friends, so there's 2:38:04.040 --> 2:38:05.640 not really a group of people he wants to hang 2:38:05.680 --> 2:38:08.000 out with. He doesn't have and if you don't have 2:38:08.080 --> 2:38:12.480 close friendships, a retreat like Camp David doesn't work for you, right. 2:38:12.680 --> 2:38:17.880 I think, you know, it's so funny about it, presidents. 2:38:18.600 --> 2:38:21.560 It's probably a good thing for a president to have, 2:38:21.879 --> 2:38:25.920 but it is. I think what's made it less popular 2:38:26.040 --> 2:38:28.080 with some presidents is the lack of a golf course 2:38:28.160 --> 2:38:32.320 to be fully transparent, like Obama just would go to 2:38:33.240 --> 2:38:36.480 golf every weekend and Andrew's and then go back to 2:38:36.560 --> 2:38:40.080 the White House. He's used Camp David a little, but 2:38:40.160 --> 2:38:43.080 he didn't love it per se either. Look, it's on 2:38:43.200 --> 2:38:45.560 my bucket list of things that I've never gotten to 2:38:45.600 --> 2:38:47.640 see that I'd still like to see. So if there's 2:38:47.640 --> 2:38:49.560 any president that would have liked to invite me to 2:38:49.680 --> 2:38:52.880 use Camp David, here's my pledge to you. If I 2:38:52.959 --> 2:38:56.560 ever get access to Camp David, John, I will try 2:38:56.600 --> 2:38:59.360 to get you there and invite you as well as 2:38:59.400 --> 2:39:03.560 my plus one if that's possible. Don't tell missus Todd Night, 2:39:03.640 --> 2:39:05.680 but we've got to get some other people in here. 2:39:06.240 --> 2:39:10.440 It is one of these like I've heard stories, I've 2:39:10.760 --> 2:39:12.680 had people tell me what it's like, right, but it 2:39:12.800 --> 2:39:15.840 is one of the few things we've seen no pictures of. 2:39:17.240 --> 2:39:19.320 And perhaps those that run Camp David that don't want 2:39:19.360 --> 2:39:21.280 people to know what it looks like, or glad Trump 2:39:21.320 --> 2:39:25.520 hasn't come because of the more Trump goes, the more 2:39:25.640 --> 2:39:28.520 likely it will come out. So you're right, I'm sure 2:39:28.560 --> 2:39:30.480 there are people using it that we don't know about. 2:39:32.959 --> 2:39:36.360 But on the list of outrages to cover. It's probably 2:39:36.520 --> 2:39:39.840 fifty seventh or fifty eighth on the list these days. 2:39:40.200 --> 2:39:44.199 All right, with that, we're going to take my forty 2:39:44.200 --> 2:39:47.760 eight hour break. Unless you know, news happens and we 2:39:47.879 --> 2:39:50.200 insert something in there. I always reserve the right to 2:39:50.240 --> 2:39:52.480 see you on YouTube. I had a few things that 2:39:52.560 --> 2:39:54.160 I did over the weekend that I want to tell 2:39:54.160 --> 2:39:55.480 you more about, and I'm going to save it for 2:39:55.520 --> 2:40:00.160 Wednesday's episode, including fascinating debate that I'm moderated between Chris 2:40:00.280 --> 2:40:04.280 Christy and David French about sports gambling. We actually came 2:40:04.400 --> 2:40:06.680 up with a potential compromise. I will share with it 2:40:07.040 --> 2:40:08.959 with you on Wednesday. If you want to go take 2:40:08.959 --> 2:40:11.160 a look at the debate, it's on YouTube under the 2:40:11.480 --> 2:40:14.440 University of Chicago. They hosted it and sponsored it. And 2:40:14.520 --> 2:40:18.440 on Friday at the Illinois Local New Summer, Marada moderated 2:40:18.480 --> 2:40:20.800 a panel of what I referred to as the venture 2:40:20.879 --> 2:40:25.360 capitalists of local news, the philanthropic organizations that have been 2:40:25.400 --> 2:40:29.000 trying to fill the gap here. John Palfrey, who's president 2:40:29.080 --> 2:40:33.039 MacArthur Foundation, Maybel Perez Wadsworth, whose presidency of the Knight Foundation, 2:40:33.800 --> 2:40:37.120 and Julie Mourta who's presidency of the Joyce Foundation, which 2:40:37.200 --> 2:40:40.039 is a little bit more regional in the Chicago area 2:40:40.120 --> 2:40:43.000 for the Great Lakes region. But all of them have 2:40:43.120 --> 2:40:46.800 been investing in trying to help local news startups get 2:40:46.840 --> 2:40:50.640 off the ground. And yeah, I called them vcs because 2:40:50.640 --> 2:40:54.400 they really are, except they're not trying to They don't 2:40:54.640 --> 2:40:57.040 try to get their money back once they give the money, 2:40:57.840 --> 2:41:00.680 but they are trying to be smart about putting money 2:41:00.720 --> 2:41:04.560 in places that can be used to grow an organization 2:41:04.680 --> 2:41:07.720 that can eventually be self sustaining, and that is I 2:41:07.800 --> 2:41:11.080 think the real challenge there. So a few things I 2:41:11.160 --> 2:41:13.000 wanted to share with you on both of those topics, 2:41:13.200 --> 2:41:16.240 and because I've gone long here, we will share that 2:41:16.320 --> 2:41:18.960 with you on Wednesday. So with that, I'll see and 2:41:19.040 --> 2:41:19.480 put it out