WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert D. Kaplan & Nathan Sheets

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news the single best idea.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're careful here in the last number of days

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<v Speaker 1>in real conversation among the team about getting the right

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<v Speaker 1>guests on the news in the Eastern Mediterranean over to Tehran.

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<v Speaker 1>We're really working and not getting pundits and what's it

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<v Speaker 1>mean for the election and that, but just people that

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<v Speaker 1>are steeped the region and that have experience as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert D. Kaplan has been affiliated with Brookings. He was

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<v Speaker 1>a Eurasia group with Ian Bremer and he is absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>definitive with a series of books. I'm going to say

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<v Speaker 1>ten books, which is basically get out the map and go,

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<v Speaker 1>and that has been his esteemed career. Whether you agree

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<v Speaker 1>or disagree with him, he gets out the map and

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<v Speaker 1>he goes. He visits, He parachutes in to troubled regions

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<v Speaker 1>across all of the globe. The Loom of Time was

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<v Speaker 1>my book of the Year last year. It's just spectacular,

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<v Speaker 1>going from Morocco and Gibraltar all the way over to

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<v Speaker 1>the Fertile Crescent. He has a new effort. I really

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<v Speaker 1>want to emphasize I've never done this before. It's almost

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<v Speaker 1>an election book. It's one hundred and fifteen pages warning.

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<v Speaker 1>Its dense, no mathematics, but a lot of dense thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>taking us from the Greeks forward to how we think today.

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<v Speaker 1>It is the tragic behind fear, fate and the burden

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<v Speaker 1>of power. Robert T. Kep I can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 1>this effort. He visited with us this morning. Robert T.

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<v Speaker 1>Kamplan on how to end the tragedy of the Eastern Mediterranean.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the fate of the Eastern Mediterranean is that

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<v Speaker 2>we will be in this cycle of wars, cease fires,

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations until or is a domestic change in the regime

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<v Speaker 2>inside Iran. Remember, the Cold War ended not because of

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<v Speaker 2>a battle was won or anything international. It ended for

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<v Speaker 2>it because of a domestic reason. The Soviet system collapsed.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think at some point the regime in Iran

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<v Speaker 2>will transform, transition or collapse on its own, not from

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<v Speaker 2>an invasion or anything. And at that point the whole

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<v Speaker 2>Middle East will be different. You'll see diplomatic relations between

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<v Speaker 2>Iran and Israel, lots of other big changes. But the

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<v Speaker 2>key thing to watch here is that if the Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>attack can do something that will the Israeli counterattack can

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<v Speaker 2>do something that will seriously embarrass the regime and Tehran

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<v Speaker 2>in the minds of its own people.

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<v Speaker 1>We continue with the Roberty cap on, a theme that

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<v Speaker 1>we've had over the last number of days of looking

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<v Speaker 1>at it. They're modern politics versus the time of it's

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<v Speaker 1>ak Rabin.

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<v Speaker 2>It'sak Rabin first of all, would not be the leader

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<v Speaker 2>of such a right wing, extreme Israeli government. Yitzhak Rabin

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<v Speaker 2>was comfortable negotiating with people who, frankly, frankly, with Americans

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<v Speaker 2>who frankly, were much smarter than the Biden administration. The

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<v Speaker 2>Biden President. Biden made a big mistake in the last

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<v Speaker 2>forty eight hours. He he said publicly that Israel should

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<v Speaker 2>not attack the Iranian nuclear facilities. That's something you communicate privately,

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<v Speaker 2>not publicly, because you should never tell your enemy what

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<v Speaker 2>you're not gonna do, never take anything off the table.

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<v Speaker 2>Yitzhak Rabin was a really wily operator, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>now he's you know, given this situation right at this moment,

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<v Speaker 2>being would hit Iran very hard. So though rob Bean

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<v Speaker 2>and Neatsanya, who are from two opposite ends of the

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<v Speaker 2>political spectrum in Israel, at this moment, they would be this,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, they would be aligned Robert Kaplan.

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<v Speaker 1>And again I can't say enough about the tragic mind,

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<v Speaker 1>your fate in the burden of power. It's what I'm

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<v Speaker 1>reading right now. Got to slip this in. It's too important.

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan Sheet's with us some City group today. He's really

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<v Speaker 1>good at really high level reports on where we are

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<v Speaker 1>and what we don't know. In the Jobs Day tomorrow

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<v Speaker 1>on Nathan Sheets on the strangeness of our productivity.

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<v Speaker 3>I think at the moment we're seeing very strong productivity growth. Again,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm interpreting that as post pandemic kind of cyclical adjustment.

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<v Speaker 3>But nevertheless, underneath that, I am a productivity poll. I

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<v Speaker 3>think this new AI technology that's being developed is fundamental,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think that out you know, three five, seven years,

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<v Speaker 3>we are likely in the United States and over time

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<v Speaker 3>globally to have a significant productivity devindad on the order

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<v Speaker 3>of what we saw with the integration of the Internet

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<v Speaker 3>in the late nineties.

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<v Speaker 2>So I am polish.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that AI is the real deal.

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan Sheets of City Group there, and of course a

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<v Speaker 1>good overlay into the mysteries of eight thirty tomorrow morning.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll go beneath the headline data. Michael McKee, leading our

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<v Speaker 1>coverage there of a hugely anticipated jobs report. We're on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 1>This is single best idea.

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<v Speaker 3>NB admits we were interclud in er