1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. The NBA season 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: is kicking into gear, and there's no better place to 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: get in on the action than FanDuel. I love betting 4 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:11,399 Speaker 1: with FanDuel because their app is safe, secure and easy 5 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: to use. And when I when I get get paid fast. 6 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: Plus FanDuel let's me jump in on the action anytime 7 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: with live betting during games. So download the FanDuel app 8 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: today to start making every moment more. Must be twenty 9 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: one or older and in select states gambling problem call 10 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, 12 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: and Ohio one eight hundred, next step or text next 13 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona one 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven 15 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: or a visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut 16 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 1: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana, visit 17 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: KS gambling help dot com. In Kansas one eight seven 18 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana. Visit MD gambling 19 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: help dot org in Maryland one eight seven seven eight 20 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four six 21 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: seven three six nine in New York one eight hundred 22 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: five two two four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or 23 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 1: visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. 24 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 25 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: I'm Shad Mellman, Chief Content Officer oh the Action Network. 26 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: We are days away from opening day from Major League Baseball. 27 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: I mean, who doesn't get that little tickle in their 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: stomach when we get close to Major League Baseball and 29 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,199 Speaker 1: the first pitch. I know Simon Hunter does because I've 30 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: gone to a Major League Baseball game with Simon Hunter 31 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: was one of my greatest joys. And he is my 32 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: co host. He is my bff, he is my companion, 33 00:01:55,480 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: he is my compadre. He is a professional BETTERI I'm 34 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: in Hunter, Hello, sew him in. Hello Chad. What a 35 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: sports weekend, brother? I really there's a few times where 36 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:12,679 Speaker 1: you're just just basking it. You literally just turned the 37 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: phone off and all you're doing is just watching tons 38 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: of sports, and with March Madness, with even the World 39 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: Baseball Classic. Honestly, I can't believe how much fun that's been. 40 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: The last two weeks. It makes the pain of football 41 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 1: being over a little easier because you got great hoops, 42 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,119 Speaker 1: you got NBA, you got hockey, and like I just said, 43 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: World Baseball Classics. So that was a nice I know 44 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: that some fans are split on the World Baseball Classic 45 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: because their players are getting hurt. I just think that's 46 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 1: part of baseball on to me. I love it as 47 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: a little pregame warm up to the MLB season. So 48 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but I really really enjoyed 49 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: this year of the World Baseball Classic. I thought it 50 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: was awesome, and I thought you just did a professional 51 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: job leading into our topic for today, which, of course 52 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: I know you love this podcast because you are a 53 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: makes money every year. Were also you're sort of under 54 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 1: the radar massive baseball fan, and I've been to the 55 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: Phillies games with you. Obviously Philly fans are just crazy anyways, 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: But our podcast today is one of our favorites of 57 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: the NFL offseason. We got Sean Zarrillo, we got Anthony D. 58 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: Bundo to Action Network baseball experts on the show today. 59 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody you got to listen to 60 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: Path Pitch the Action Networks Baseball Podcast. We've got Thursday 61 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: and Friday episodes this week for opening Day. Once the 62 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: season begins, we're doing it every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, 63 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 1: and before Zarillo comes on. And I got to spend 64 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: time with both Anthony and Zaillo this past weekend. We 65 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: had a big event in New Jersey. They were both 66 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: there as we're as was Anthony's mom. It's great of 67 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: her to show up at the bar. But let's give 68 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: Zarrillo a little props before he even comes on. I 69 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: want to read some of the bets that Sean Zarrillo 70 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: that he probably gave us last year. I know he 71 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: gave you some of these because you bet a lot 72 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: of them. Last year. He had Aaron Judge Al MVP 73 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: twenty five to one, cashed, Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners 74 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 1: nine to one, Ale Rookie of the Year cashed, Sandy 75 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: Alcantara twenty five to one, Cy Young Marlin's cashed Phillies 76 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: NL Pennant twenty to one cash. He also came a 77 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: whiskers breath Cash Schwarber to lead the league in home 78 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: runs fifty to one, finished second Phillies to win the 79 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 1: World Series. Obviously, came this close forty to one last year. 80 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 1: This work gets interesting and we'll talk some of this today. 81 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: Last year's Sean Zarrillo's projections for wind totals went nineteen 82 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: ten and one. More accurate like the people who do projections. 83 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: When I say these next three brands that do it, 84 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 1: Zarillo was more accurate than Zips projections, Davenport projections, Pacoda projections, 85 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: fucking Pacoda, Simon, he beat Pacoda. What do you guys 86 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: say to that? Finally we took down the machines. Chad 87 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: our hero we true needed. Shaun was our hero. So 88 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: everybody go read Shawn's MLB previews. There are two of 89 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: them are out now. He's got team futures out right now, 90 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: he's got player prop projections. He's got more coming later 91 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: this week. Shan Zarrillo, Anthony du Bundo long introduction, Welcome 92 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 1: to the Favorites Podcast. Baseball's almost here. Huh, Anthony, you're 93 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: in your phillies Jersey right away? Tell me right now, 94 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: Phillies over under eighty nine wins. I'd probably have to 95 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: go under. I'm wearing my Reese Jersey Reese goes down 96 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 1: with an acl Last week, it feels like a big 97 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: balloon was forming over the Phillies this season after the 98 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 1: big October run, but people forgot they were only an 99 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: eighty seven win team last year and they have some 100 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: major question marks, not just at first base now, but 101 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 1: the starting pitching has taken a big hit depth wise. 102 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: So I would go under Sean since we got Simon 103 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: on the podcast and he's a huge Philly wait for 104 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: it fanatic. Yeah, the Phillies went to a little under 105 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: one of my favorites in the National League, one of 106 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 1: my favorites in baseball this season, even before the Reese 107 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 1: Hoskins injury, before the Andrew Painter injury, the top pitching 108 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: prospect in baseball who's expected to give them a boost 109 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 1: this year. Obviously, as you mentioned in the intro, which 110 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: I appreciate, the Phillies my favorite long shot bet last season. 111 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: My opinion on them hasn't really changed. If they make 112 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: the playoffs, they're gonna be dangerous. But in terms of 113 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: having depth to get to the playoffs, guaranteeing themselves a 114 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: playoff spot, Ryce Harper not coming back likely till mid season, 115 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 1: and coming off of an injury where it may sap 116 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: is powered, there's a lot of reasons to be down 117 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: on the Phillies this season, on top of the recent 118 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: injuries they've had, so definitely a win total underbet for 119 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: me probably down to about eighty eight wins after the 120 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: Reese Hoskins injury. That said, if they make the ploffs, 121 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 1: they're still gonna be just as dangerous as they were 122 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: last year, but they're win total one up by a 123 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: couple of wins, and I don't see them as any 124 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: more talented coming into this season than they were last year. 125 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: All right, Well, listen, we got to MLB Opening Day 126 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: coming up this week, and so it's a good time 127 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: to remind people as they've been hearing me talk about 128 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: game Time all offseason long. In the last episode, in 129 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: the episode before that, game Time is the fastest growing 130 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: ticketing app in the US. I love game Time, honestly, 131 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: I do. I use it all the time. And if 132 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: you're looking to get out to a pro or college 133 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: game this week, or even a concert, Gametime has amazing 134 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: last minute deals on tickets to all of these. I'm 135 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: actually going to open a game Time app right now 136 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: from my house and lo and behold look what I see. 137 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: I can get into Yankee Stadium for opening Day against 138 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: the Giants for eighty four bucks. How easy is that? 139 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app, 140 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. You deserve it, 141 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off 142 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 1: your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app 143 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: entwer code favorites for twenty dollars off. Download Game Time Today, 144 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowest price gear Rount. I feel like 145 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: we got to get a little organized here, Simon. So 146 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: I know what I want to know. I want some 147 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: season win totals. They just gave us one for the Phillies. 148 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: I know how much you love like the future player 149 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: prop projections. So we're gonna get into World Series futures. 150 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: We're gonna get independent futures. We're gonna get into season 151 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: win totals. But before we do that, Simon, ask away 152 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: on the player prop projections. Whichever one's you want to 153 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: know about. Well, I'll go boring first. I just reading 154 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: through Shawn's article like the last couple of days, it 155 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: really stands out you really love the Braves this year, 156 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 1: and I know they're obviously the best team last year. 157 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: How do you project out a team like that that 158 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: it was so disappointed in the playoffs. They're bringing everyone back. 159 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you could argue that Braves are better this 160 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: year than they were last year. That you still think 161 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: in that division where the Mets have gotten better. I mean, 162 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: I hate to say, but I do think that Phillies 163 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: have gotten better, just because I like this coaching staff. 164 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: The coaching staff to have Lasher it took him to 165 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: the World Series. I think it's light years I had 166 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: of what they had last year going to the season. 167 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: So to me that the nlast is really strong. I'm 168 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: just insure to hear Shawn's projection here. I know he's not, 169 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,239 Speaker 1: you know, going crazy with the over under on Atlanta, 170 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: but you do like them to win the division, and 171 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: you like them a couple of other player prop bets. 172 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: So I'm just in sure to hear Shawn's view on 173 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 1: Atlanta and if Anthony agrees with Shawn's view on Atlanta, 174 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: because to me, it seems like they're far and above. 175 00:09:57,960 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: You know, once again, it's them. It feels like it's 176 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: them that dodge where they're kind of the most talked 177 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: about two teams heading into the season. Yeah, So in 178 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: terms of teams who are likeliest to make playoffs, teams 179 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: who have the highest upside projection in terms of just 180 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 1: being there at the end making the dance. The Braves 181 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 1: are at eighty five percent if you combine the projections 182 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: from Fangrass and Dakoda. That's higher than any other team. 183 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: The Yankees are at eighty two and a half scent, 184 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: The Potteries are at eighty percent, and the Astros are 185 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: also at eighty percent. That's the only group that Dodgers 186 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: are in there as well. So those five teams all 187 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 1: at eighty percent are above but amongst them, the Braves 188 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:43,079 Speaker 1: are actually the most mispriced, because the Braves should probably 189 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: be around six fifty to make the playoffs, and you 190 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: can get them as low as minus five hundred. I 191 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: think it's because their division is so strong. But something 192 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: we've talked about a lot on our Payoff Pitch podcast 193 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: is the schedule being different this year. The NL Central, 194 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: these teams are all playing their divisions less, which means 195 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: the NL Central teams and the ALE Central teams, who 196 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: have generally been weaker advanced less than the playoffs than 197 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 1: these other divisions in recent years, they're going to get 198 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: fewer games against each other and more games against the 199 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: West and the East, and that does not bode well 200 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: for the NL Central or ALE Central. I have a 201 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: difficult time seeing those divisions getting more than one playoff team. 202 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: It's possible, certainly on the Twins are actually a team who, 203 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: based on the odds, may be worth a bet around 204 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: possible in fifteen to make the playoffs, because there's actually 205 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: projections that have them closer to fifty fifty five percent. 206 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: So regardless of that, and you know, the middle of 207 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: the table, at the upper echelon of the league, there 208 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 1: are only certain teams who have both the depth and 209 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: the top end talent to sprint their way through the season, 210 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: get a big lead, get a buy, get to the playoffs, 211 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: and comfortably have their starters rest for the end, compared 212 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 1: to the teams are in the middle of the back 213 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 1: up the fight all the way through. The difference between 214 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: the Braves and the other teams at the top is 215 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: player development. You saw Michael Harris Spencer Strider basically come 216 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 1: from nowhere on the oddsboard last year for rookie the 217 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: year one hundred to one plus each. Harris not even 218 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 1: listed to finish one two in the race, and they 219 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: have more pitchers this year. We're competing for backend rotation spots. 220 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: Had no issue sending Ian Anderson back down to the 221 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 1: minor leagues to try to get him a little bit 222 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 1: better to who he was a key part of their 223 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: rotation when they made the World Series around a couple 224 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: of years ago. So the Braves back end of the rotation, 225 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 1: the way that they have all these first round picks 226 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: where they're constantly juggling and adding new pitches too, I 227 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: trust their player development more than I do any other organization. 228 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: On top of the math, it just says for me 229 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: that I like them a few wins better than the 230 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: market does. I like the Mets and the Phillies slightly 231 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: less than the market does. So all that adds up 232 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 1: to me to making the Braves about sixty percent to 233 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: win their Division one fifty at plus they were plus 234 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 1: one forty. After the Diaz injury, they dropped down to 235 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: about plus one fifteen, and then I think after the 236 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,719 Speaker 1: Hoskins injury they move closer to even money. So you've 237 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: seen the market adjusts relative to the injuries for the 238 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 1: Mets and the Phillies in favor of the Braves. But yeah. 239 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: I mean since the midpoint of last season, the Braves 240 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: have been my favorite team in baseball, in my best 241 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: protected team in baseball. Fangraphs has basically carried the same opinion. 242 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: Pacoda is lower on the Braves and higher on the Mets. 243 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 1: But I'm happy to see that it's not just me 244 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: who've used the Braves as the best team in baseball, 245 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: not only from the depth perspective, but in terms of 246 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 1: the star talent they have. Like they lose Danzy Swanson, 247 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: but they didn't get a full season from a Kunie 248 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: last year. I expect Matt Wilson to take another step forward. 249 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: Ausi Albi is coming back. So they lost a little 250 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: bit of production, but I expect them to replace it 251 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 1: in different ways. And just the number of outs they 252 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: give themselves too, with player development, how deep their bullpen is. 253 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: It's a very difficult team. But the safety of betting 254 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: the Braves now attend to one knowing they're going to 255 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 1: make the playoffs, I think is why I like them. 256 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: Pennant World Series. In addition to their divisional futures, they're 257 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 1: just a very likely team to make the Deads. Yeah, 258 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 1: I you know, ten to one for Ronald Acuna to 259 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 1: win the MVP is my favorite bet for Atlanta. He 260 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 1: wasn't very good in twenty one twenty twenty two. Rather, 261 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: he had a pretty down year relative to his expectations, 262 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: only a one fourteen w RC plus, so he was 263 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 1: about twenty points lower than his projection, and he was 264 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: battling that knee injury. He wasn't quite one hundred percent. 265 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: So one hundred percent Ronald Kuna raises their ceiling even higher, 266 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: and I think he has that at stark potential. He 267 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: was stealing basis again, but he was complaining throughout the 268 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: second half of the season that his knee wasn't quite right. 269 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: He was in and out of the lineup, battling that. 270 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: He hit a lot of ground balls. We've seen him 271 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 1: unlock a lot more power in spring training this year, 272 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: hitting more balls in the air, full offseason to get healthy. 273 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: It's a huge difference. And they won the World Series 274 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: without him too. I mean, we don't talk about it enough, 275 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: but they literally won the World Series without their best player. 276 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: They had him last year, he wasn't even a one 277 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: hundred percent. If he's close to one hundred percent again, 278 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: this team is the best in Baseball. I mean, look, 279 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: I can't believe I teeth signing up to take the 280 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: Lorie Bet of home run leader, and You're like, can 281 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: we talk about the Atlanta Braves. I love it. I 282 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: love I just love the info about it because to me, 283 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: that's something that the normal fans not realizing is how 284 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: good Atlanta is heading into the season. So I just 285 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: wanted to get that off the top. I mean, I 286 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: joke about it. I joked about it on our NL 287 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: East preview that we did on Playoff Pitch. I've every 288 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: year that I've bet baseball, I have bet the Atlanta 289 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: Braves to win the division, and every year they have 290 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: won the division pretty comfortably. Last year was a bit 291 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: of a sweat. The Mets had a great first half. 292 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: But the Mets, you know, regress a little bit, and 293 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: I'm worried about their age profile. The Mets are the 294 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: oldest team in the league. They have some questions at 295 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: corner infield, third base, and corner outfielders are old. The 296 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: starting rotations very old. So I'm worried about the Mets, 297 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: especially now losing Diaz. And how you do the Braves 298 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: signed big free agents. How often is talent coming from 299 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: outside of their organizations, always internal. I know they lost 300 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: Freddie Freeman traded for Madelson, like that's a one for 301 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: one thing. By and large, all of their talent comes 302 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: within their player development system, so we continue to underrate 303 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: their ability to get the most out of the talent 304 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: their organization. No, it's the old Phillies joke that Bobby 305 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: Cox would just walk into a hospital and point to 306 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: a baby and say that's a left fielder, that's the shortstop, 307 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: that's a closer, and literally that's how it worked with 308 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: Atlanta for about thirty years. So clearly he's still still 309 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: helping out on their farm program. Who's gonna win the 310 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: fucking home run title? Well? Do you won't? Do you 311 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: want the real answer? Do you want some crazy odds 312 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: because you're pick I means the board. You guys going 313 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: to ask me about stat leaders this year? You know 314 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: I've come on before and given out Blagger or Junior 315 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: home run leader fifty to one, Shoreber last year, fifty 316 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 1: to one. I do love those fifty to one vats, right, 317 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: And I think it is a category where you speculate 318 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: on Hall of Fame talent guys like Juan Soto, who 319 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: if he just decides to start swinging more. Is he 320 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: going to turn into Barry Bonds? He's gonna sacrifice walks 321 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: for home runs at some point. I think it's gonna happen. 322 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: Soto's twenty four, He's hitting his physical prime. So Soto 323 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 1: at fifty to one to be home run leader, sure 324 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 1: fire on that. Julio Rodriguez fifty one hormun leader. I 325 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: know Anthony likes his home run total under, but I 326 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: said on our podcast for prop bets, Julio is a 327 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 1: kind of guy who you can justify based on projections 328 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 1: betting his home run total under, but also based on 329 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: stack cast metrics, justify betting him to lead the league 330 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 1: in home runs because he has some forty home run 331 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 1: forty steel seasons in his future. Very likely. Matt Olson 332 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 1: sixty one just mentioned him. But the guy is yord 333 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: On Alvarez RBI, home runs, runs scored, MVP across the board. 334 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: Yord On Alvarez is my guy this season. He's the 335 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: player I've allocated the most too in the futures market. 336 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: It's three quarters of a unit. If he gets hurt, 337 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: I'm not going to be devastated by any means. But 338 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: based on his batted ball profile, his development arc is 339 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: a hitter. This guy is the best bat in baseball 340 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: and honestly one of the best bats received, maybe the 341 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: best since Barry Bonds, the best outside of the steroid era. 342 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 1: Hold On, hold on, I agree, all right, all right, 343 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: quick agreement from Anthony that for a second, that is 344 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 1: a massive statement, because what you just said about this 345 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: guy is that you've put again you said, it's only 346 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 1: three quarters of a union, but it's the most you 347 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 1: bet on any individual bet and even do a player, 348 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 1: and you're basically comparing him to Barry Bonds. I would 349 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 1: like each of you to break that down to Bundo. 350 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: You go first. Yeah, there was a point in the 351 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: middle of last season where I was just kind of 352 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 1: looking through his stat profile and one of the things 353 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: I like to look at his plate discipline. So how 354 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: much you swinging up balls and strikes? How good is 355 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 1: your reading of the strike zone, because that's really what 356 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: separates guys to take that next step. His swing percent, 357 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 1: so the amount of times he swung at a pitch 358 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 1: was exactly the same as the year before, but he 359 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: cut his chase rate on balls by five percent and 360 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: increased to swing rate on strikes by five set and 361 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: I was like, holy shit, like that's like superstar level 362 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 1: stuff to do that in one year. And we've always 363 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 1: known how much raw power he has. I mean, if 364 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 1: you watch him hit, he hits unbelievable homers. So with 365 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: the result of that was his walk rate went up, 366 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 1: his strikeout rate went down, his raw power and his 367 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: contact quality was as lead has ever been the biggest 368 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: thing with him his injuries. I mean, he had like 369 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: a weird hand injury, wrist injury that kind of kept 370 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,239 Speaker 1: him out, and then his knees are not great, but 371 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: they don't don't play him in the field as much too, 372 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: so that does help him. But in terms of just 373 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: like pure hitter, I will take him over one Toto 374 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 1: and I will take him. I mean, he's the best 375 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 1: pure hitter even an Aaron Judge as a lad as 376 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: he is, does strike out a good amount, much more 377 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 1: than Alvarez. It feels like he's, you know, he has 378 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: Aaron Judge like qualities in that he's just huge. He's 379 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: just the bat looks like a toothpick in his hands. 380 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,719 Speaker 1: We're starting to see some of these baseball players come 381 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: up athletically that I don't think we've seen before O'Neil 382 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: Cruz last year a six foot seven shortstop Ellie de 383 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: la Cruz, who's going to come up for the Reds, 384 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: is one of the most dynamic athletes that will ever 385 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: step on a baseball field. Julio, we already talked about 386 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 1: the athleticism coming into the game, in addition to the 387 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: fact that baseball has modified the rules to increase the 388 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: emphasis on speed base running. Obviously your Don does not 389 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 1: fit into that profile. But the gargantuan nature of his size, 390 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: in addition to the fact that he's so disciplined as 391 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: a hitter, I think that's where the Bonds comes in 392 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: for me. Not in any way, shape or form in 393 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: terms of speed or defense, Barry Bonds as an overall 394 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 1: baseball player far superior. I'm talking about pure hitting ability, 395 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 1: ability to recognize balls and strikes, as Anthony said, and 396 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 1: then his pure power, his in game power, both raw 397 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: and in game power. Your Don is a freak. He's 398 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 1: twenty five years old. That season that errand Judge put 399 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 1: up last year he's going to have at some point 400 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 1: if he stays healthy. He didn't pick up a bat 401 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 1: until the final week is spring trade. This is the 402 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,199 Speaker 1: biggest concern here, but his odds relative to where he 403 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,120 Speaker 1: ranks in terms of his average expected production per playing time. 404 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 1: I have him as the RBI leader in terms of 405 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: RBIs per plate appearance. All of it aligns with his 406 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 1: price points. Look at his stat cast page, He's in 407 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: thee hundredth percentile for basically every key stat except for 408 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: strikeout rate he's in the sixty third percentile. But that's 409 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: just because he swings hard. He's looking for home runs. 410 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 1: But in terms of what he's looking to recognize and hit, 411 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: this guy is as good as Soto in terms of 412 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: plate discipline. There's other guys who have better about to 413 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 1: ball skills, but he is elite in terms of his 414 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 1: plate recognition and adding the power on top of it. 415 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 1: Those are the skills you covet. That's my elite player portfolio. 416 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: Is that power and plate discipline together it's unbeatable. What 417 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: are his current odds again right now? So for home 418 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: run leader, I believe you're on is fourteen to one. 419 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: I also bet him. I bet him RBI leader ten 420 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: to one, and I bet him MVP at fourteen to 421 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: one as well. So home run MVP both fourteen to one, 422 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: have like a quarter unit on each of those, and 423 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: then a little bit less on his RBI and runs later. 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I actually do want to ask Simon, 460 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: why didn't you ever become a professional baseball better everything 461 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 1: Zarrillo and Dbundo were talking about, like plays to all 462 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 1: your interests in strengths and you love baseball other than 463 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: the fact that you truly have no life for about 464 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 1: seven months. It's in my when I first got into 465 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: this world, especially where the old school was meeting the 466 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: new school of the old school guys, they did some 467 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 1: analytics and some stuff one computers, but they really didn't. Honestly, 468 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,399 Speaker 1: a lot of it was word to mouth spots like 469 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: they knew different spots in baseball. When I got into it, 470 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 1: there were just guys that were just older than me 471 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: that they kind of had their own little group. I 472 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: really couldn't get in that door for baseball. It really 473 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 1: was tight knit. You know, it's different where you could 474 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: say you won now about how baseball has changed so much. 475 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: When I got in, you know, thirteen years ago, twelve 476 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 1: years ago, baseball was nothing like it is now, especially 477 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: betting wise. It's completely a different world. So people like 478 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: Sean here that have got into it more recently are 479 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: far better off. Than people have been in baseball for 480 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 1: a long time. I mean, it's a huge advantage. Like 481 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: he's talking about everything you can do now in the computer, 482 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,360 Speaker 1: the analytics. It's huge. So that's what it was making 483 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 1: me smile. I was like, you know, he's talking about 484 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: a guy here who obviously I would love for him 485 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 1: to be at home and leader all these other stuff. 486 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: I like when Sean came out here, give us like 487 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 1: the fifty to one stuff, because that, to me is 488 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 1: the such the unicorn stuff of baseball. It's like you 489 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: have guys who are just one year, you'll have the 490 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: ra Dickies. That's my favorite thing forever, the R Dickie. 491 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: It's like you have a knuckleballer who's thirty eight years 492 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: old somehow win the cy young. That's why we love baseball. 493 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: That's why I love betting baseball. So m again, we're 494 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 1: gonna talk about, like I want to talk about most wins. 495 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,120 Speaker 1: There's just a bunch of stuff that Sean puts out 496 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 1: there that you're getting these crazy high odds that if 497 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 1: Shan shits the bed this year, you miss on everything. 498 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 1: You shouldn't care because Sean is already give you a 499 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,159 Speaker 1: crazy returning these last couple of years. So that's what 500 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 1: it means. Where stick to it with baseball, Like Sean's 501 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 1: gonna give you out every year. You want to play 502 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 1: it every year, like you're not gonna know half to 503 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 1: name Sean's talking about. That's what I love about baseball. 504 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: It's just such a turnover. So to me, that's what 505 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: the smile on my face. It's like, God, I can't 506 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 1: wait b Opening Day, just all of it. I just 507 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: love baseball. It's the it's the best. You know, it 508 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,199 Speaker 1: is Chad, the background noise of the summer. It's just 509 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: always on the TV all summer. All right, Well, look, 510 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: the Bundo wants his shot. The Bundo wants shot. He 511 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,880 Speaker 1: wants to give us a home run, long shot. Let's 512 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: let's go baby Byron Buxton Minnesota centerfield or DH sixty 513 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: to one. You can find him that high. Look. Buxton 514 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: was having a ridiculous season, and the question with him 515 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 1: is never how good is he? It's always can he 516 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 1: stay healthy? The Twins are making an effort to keep 517 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: him healthier. They went and signed Michael Taylor from the Royals. 518 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: He's gonna, I think, play center field. Buckston's gonna DH 519 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: more he's not stealing basses anymore, so they're trying to 520 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 1: do everything possible. They're even load managing him at points 521 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 1: last season. They're trying to keep him as healthy as 522 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: possible because last year he played ninety two games. In 523 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, he only played sixty one games. Twenty 524 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: nineteen he only played eighty seven games. But at some 525 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: point he probably will have a season where he gets 526 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 1: lucky and stays healthy for the whole year, and when 527 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,439 Speaker 1: he does, he is an unbelievable slugger who's right up 528 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 1: there with the top of the level guys. I mean, 529 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 1: Zillo said he projected him sixth most home runs per 530 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: plate appearance. He hit twenty eight homers in ninety two 531 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 1: games last year. That's right below, right around a fifty 532 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: home run pace. And his you know, he's been focusing 533 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: more on hitting flyballs. He's been striking out a little more, 534 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: but just trying to tap into his power as possible. 535 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: That's the guy I want. So it's sixty to one. 536 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 1: He'll probably hit twenty homers the first two months and 537 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 1: then miss a month and it'll cost him. But if 538 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: he can put together one healthy season, he's right up there. 539 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 1: With the best in the league. All right, Simon, what 540 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: are you gonna ask about wins? Were you asking season 541 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: win totals or pitcher wins pitchers most wins? I just 542 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: like that Sean right now is the shortest odds. He 543 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: has his twenty five to one, So I like that 544 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:26,919 Speaker 1: that he has a bunch of guys here. We all 545 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 1: have really good odds. So from Sean's perspective, I know, 546 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 1: Anthony gat touch On here, there are any guys that 547 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,919 Speaker 1: really jumped out. I know you're kind of favoring your 548 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 1: projectors here. We're just like, all right, we'll put Atlanta 549 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 1: guy in there, just because I assume Elana hasn't have 550 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 1: the most wins, So I'm interested here how Sean breaks 551 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: down who how he projects out most wins for pitchers. Yeah, 552 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: Garrett colebacks Freed Toad a top my projection lead at fifteen. 553 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 1: They've kind of been the projected leaders the past two 554 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 1: or three years, just based on the number of times 555 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: they take the ball, the teams they play for, and 556 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: how deep they both pitch into games, so they're around 557 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 1: for a lot of decisions. Play for ninety plus one 558 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: teams take the ball thirty two times a year, you're 559 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 1: going to automatically project for around fourteen or fifteen wins. 560 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 1: Freed is twenty five to one. I think he should 561 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: be closer to twenty to one. So he is my 562 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: favorite bet in that category. And then, as he mentioned, Simon, 563 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: correlation relative to my Atlanta love, the fact that I 564 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 1: project them as the best team in the league, that 565 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: all aligns. So number of starts for Freed, the high 566 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: number of starts for Freed on the best team all 567 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: sort of aligning. You mentioned though, And I want to 568 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: get into this before we run out of time. Players 569 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 1: that nobody has ever heard of at long odds. That 570 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 1: is what you're here for, Simon Yea. So let me 571 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 1: offer you Bubba Thompson as the steals leader at fifty 572 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,240 Speaker 1: to one. He is starting in center field an opening 573 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: day for the Rangers because their actual center field or 574 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: Leoti Tavars is hurt. In the past five years or so. 575 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 1: The major league steals leader the peak number of steals 576 00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: that they averaged per an average number plate appearances. That 577 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: is what Bubba Thompson averaged in his brief major league 578 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:09,120 Speaker 1: stint last season. So he's already shown in about one 579 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two hundred plate appearances that he can 580 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: generate steals at a rate on par with the stolen 581 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: base leaders from past seasons. He also stole sixty seven 582 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 1: bags on seventy attempts and the majors in Triple A 583 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 1: last season, which is about is high of a percentage 584 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 1: I've seen for that many steals over the course of 585 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,479 Speaker 1: a season at that high of level of baseball. So 586 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: if he just decides to steal every time he's on first, 587 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 1: if they just pinch run him every game with these 588 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 1: new rules, I can see a very similar season for 589 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 1: Bubba Thompson is what John Birdie did for the Marlins, 590 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: where he led the league in steals. I think it 591 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 1: had forty steals in about four hundred plate appearances last season. 592 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: If you get Bubba Thompson three hundred fifty four hundred 593 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 1: plate appearances, he could absolutely get forty or forty five 594 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 1: steals based on the rate that he was running last year, 595 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: the rate that he ran to the minors, and the 596 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: success rate that he had on those bags. Bobba Thompson 597 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: one of the fastest players in baseball, but on top 598 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: of that, probably the best pure bass stealer in baseball. 599 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 1: There's guys like Corbyn Carroll, who is the best runner 600 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: in baseball. He's the fastest guy. But there's actually better 601 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 1: base stealers on Carroll's own team, Bobba Thompson. Stealing and 602 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: speed aren't necessarily the same thing. There are instincts, timing, 603 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,400 Speaker 1: other things that go into that. So Bubba Thompson, I think, 604 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 1: is going to be an elite bass dealer if he 605 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,960 Speaker 1: gets playing time. And he's getting a jump from opening days, 606 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 1: so maybe he has a hot week. They keep sticking 607 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: him in the lineup and he gets enough playing time 608 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: to get in real quick. Did they change the pickoff 609 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: rule now that you only get two attempts and then 610 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: and then if you attempt the third time you don't 611 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: get them, they get the next base. Does that count 612 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 1: as a steal? I don't believe. I'm actually not sure 613 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: how that would accounts as a back Yeah. Oh shit, yeah, 614 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,480 Speaker 1: so you're not gonna see though too many. I mean 615 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 1: it's at that point like, yeah, they'll do They'll do 616 00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: two attempts and they just want to do the third. Right, 617 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: you were just giving up the base at that point anyway, 618 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,239 Speaker 1: So you may throw the pitch and see if you're 619 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 1: catcher can get them out all right, Bubba Thompson, We 620 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: love that we got to get out of here in 621 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: about five minutes because we've got tight time constraints today, 622 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 1: which means I need from Zarrillo and I need from 623 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 1: Dubundo your best season wind total over and your best 624 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 1: season win total under each of you, Okay and Simon, 625 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 1: then you will ask about their pennant and World Series predictions. 626 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: Best dots. Zarrillo, go first, give me your best season 627 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,000 Speaker 1: win total over and your best season win total under. 628 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: I like the Marlins over seventy four and a half wins. 629 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: They have a ton of starting pitching depth. I know 630 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: they signed Johnny Quato, don't love that because I wanted 631 00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 1: them to bring up Ury Perez is one of their 632 00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: top prospects. They added some offense who's a rise. They're 633 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 1: finally starting to get a little bit more competitive. But 634 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: just the starting pitching depth that they have on a 635 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 1: game to game basis, I'm actually going to be betting 636 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 1: on the Marlins a lot again this season. Hopefully they 637 00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 1: improve their bullpen because they blew a ton of games. 638 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,920 Speaker 1: If the Marlins over seventy four and a half, I 639 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,480 Speaker 1: like is my favorite over. My favorite under is the 640 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 1: White Sox under eighty nine and eighty three and a half. 641 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. In addition to the Phillies under eighty eight 642 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 1: or eighty seven and a half even that's fine as well. 643 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 1: In terms of Pennant and World Series predictions, I'll give 644 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 1: you my final four as I see it now. These 645 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 1: teams are all futures that I bet Guardians and Yankees 646 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:40,080 Speaker 1: in the American League Wow, yes. And then we're gonna 647 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 1: go with the Brazen Podres in the NL, so a 648 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 1: bit more predictable. In the NL. I've talked a lot 649 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 1: about the fact that the new rules helped the Guardians 650 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 1: more than any other team. Tristan McKenzie, though, who's a 651 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,240 Speaker 1: starter that I liked as a cy young bet, is 652 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 1: hurt for two months now. They lost their one of 653 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,239 Speaker 1: their top prospects due to injury. Bon Nailer, who's one 654 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 1: of their other top prospects as a catcher. He'll be 655 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,240 Speaker 1: up later in the year. So given these injuries that 656 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 1: the Guardians have, the fact that they should eventually peak 657 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 1: later in the season, I think they're going to be 658 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 1: dangerous in the playoffs. Their bullpen, they're going to have 659 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: to play tight games, probably to overcome the astros of 660 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: the Yankees. But yeah, I think the Guardians are going 661 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 1: to be aided by the new rules as much as 662 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,240 Speaker 1: any team. Also like the Cardinals for a similar reason. 663 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:27,319 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, so we're talking new rules over on the 664 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks seventy four and a half wins. They were 665 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,480 Speaker 1: the worst team in baseball two years ago and they 666 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,920 Speaker 1: have steadily trended up considerably. They've had a bit of 667 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,439 Speaker 1: a youth movement. Urban Carroll is the National League Rookie 668 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,759 Speaker 1: of the Year favorite. He is going to be every 669 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,280 Speaker 1: day but player. He's the fastest player in baseball. They're 670 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 1: more built to lean in on the new rules, I think, 671 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 1: in the National League than any other team, like the 672 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: Guardians in the American League. They have a trio of 673 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 1: really interesting young pitchers. Only one of them will start 674 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: in the rotation, Ryan Nelson, but Drey Jamison is waiting there. 675 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: Brandon fott Is, I think you know, one of the 676 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,960 Speaker 1: three best pitching prospects in baseball. He's sitting in Triple A. 677 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,479 Speaker 1: So the minute that Bumgarner or Zach Davies start to falter, 678 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see these guys come through. They 679 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,240 Speaker 1: have more team speed and a better defense than probably 680 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 1: anybody in baseball. They were second and out's above average 681 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,640 Speaker 1: last year. Defensively, they have Alec Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Corbyn 682 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 1: Carroll a ton of speed, so they're going to be 683 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 1: able to lean in on the pitching, the defense, and 684 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,359 Speaker 1: the speed to win and get to about five hundred plus. 685 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,280 Speaker 1: Fewer games against the two mamos in that division will 686 00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,959 Speaker 1: certainly help more games against the week American League. My under, 687 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,479 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Washington Nationals under fifty nine 688 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,280 Speaker 1: and a half wins, and I know it sounds crazy. 689 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,799 Speaker 1: My first pick was the White Sox, but Sean took it, 690 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,400 Speaker 1: so I'm gonna take the Nationals. They don't have a 691 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,840 Speaker 1: single player by the bat projections that is expected to 692 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 1: be above average this season, not one player. Their best 693 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 1: player is arc plus and he's a thirty year old 694 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,040 Speaker 1: triple A journeyman who had a breakout campaign last year, 695 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,560 Speaker 1: Joey Minesis. Other than that, it's a really bad lineup 696 00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,840 Speaker 1: of retreads and I was somewhat interested in their pitching 697 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,200 Speaker 1: at first, but Mackenzie Gore has had some problems in 698 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,160 Speaker 1: spring training. Kankavali. Their top pitching prospect has to get 699 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: Tommy John. They're starting Patrick Corbyn, who lost nineteen games 700 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 1: last year on opening Day. I think this could be 701 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: a next level of utility for the Nationals. They had 702 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,319 Speaker 1: a respectable lineup at the start of last season, then 703 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 1: they lost Juan Soto, they lost Josh Bell. It was 704 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,399 Speaker 1: a triple A team. This is a triple A team. 705 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take under fifty nine and a half 706 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,920 Speaker 1: on the Nationals. As for my World Series prediction, I 707 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,400 Speaker 1: agree with Sean on the Braves. I think they're the 708 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,879 Speaker 1: deepest team. I trust their pitching and their bullpens elite, 709 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,759 Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna get an Vpakunya, so they're 710 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 1: gonna be my pick. Let's talk about Otani and Trout 711 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,359 Speaker 1: in the American League because I think I don't hate 712 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,120 Speaker 1: the idea of them as a long shot, and we 713 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 1: just talked about this on our Player Props and long 714 00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: Shots episode. If they get to the deadline and they're 715 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,760 Speaker 1: in a position where they have any chance of really competing, 716 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,400 Speaker 1: moreno is looking about selling the team. How do you 717 00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 1: not go all in with Otani potentially looming with free 718 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,799 Speaker 1: agency here and try to make one run if they're 719 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 1: in contention. They have a lot of bus potential. This 720 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,399 Speaker 1: is still the Angels, but they also you know, last 721 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 1: year I said I thought the Angels make the playoffs 722 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: because I liked their their depth behind Otani and Trout. 723 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,319 Speaker 1: Rndon got hurt. He's looked great in spring training at 724 00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 1: third base. But the difference between their depth this year 725 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 1: and last year. Last year they bet on some young 726 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:18,400 Speaker 1: guys finally making that leap into you know, everyday major leaguers. 727 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 1: This year they've actually gone out and spent money on 728 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:25,200 Speaker 1: actual everyday major leaguers like Geo Orshella, like Hunter Renfro, 729 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 1: players who have proven track records. Brendan jury that can 730 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,080 Speaker 1: produce more behind these guys, and they have two starters 731 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,879 Speaker 1: in Sandoval, Patrick Sandoval and Reid Debtmer's that I'm pretty 732 00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,399 Speaker 1: high on. So we know that we know the top 733 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: end talents there. Maybe the depth is real this time 734 00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 1: and if they get in the playoffs, they're the kind 735 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,320 Speaker 1: of stars and scrubs team, kind of like the Phillies 736 00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,879 Speaker 1: that could do a similar thing in an American league 737 00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: that's not quite as deep as the National League. All right, listening, 738 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:51,839 Speaker 1: are fifty to one to win the World Series. By 739 00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 1: the way, you guys have made Simon's day. I've never 740 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,560 Speaker 1: seen him take so many notes doing a podcast, smiling, 741 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:04,320 Speaker 1: make them bets, make them bets, chat bets as we speak. 742 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 1: Great podcast, great information. Everyone's got to listen to payoff 743 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:15,160 Speaker 1: Pitch obviously Thursday Friday this week Opening Day episodes Monday 744 00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 1: Tuesday Friday during the season. Go read Anthony at Action 745 00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:25,560 Speaker 1: Network in the app online read Zarillo Action Network dot com. Amazing, 746 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,839 Speaker 1: amazing baseball analysts. They are inside the game like none other. 747 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 1: Four Matt Mitchell for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Noman. 748 00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,720 Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network. 749 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,000 Speaker 1: Download from Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, 750 00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,400 Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, Make sure you subscribe directly to the favorites. 751 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,319 Speaker 1: Say whatever you want, leave five stars. Feedback is a gift. 752 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 1: Until next time. I Love you. Action Network reminds you 753 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,719 Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about 754 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,760 Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four seven 755 00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:03,200 Speaker 1: at one eight hundred. Gambler