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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power. It
Speaker 1: is Monday here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and
Speaker 1: on YouTube. We're twenty two days out. Well, this is
Speaker 1: pretty remarkable here with a race that seems to be
Speaker 1: tightening with time instead of breaking out one way or
Speaker 1: the other. Were, of course, always following the candidates on
Speaker 1: the campaign trail as well today and we're going to
Speaker 1: be headed back to the swing states. We're getting used
Speaker 1: to the deal here, of course. Kamala Harris Eerie, Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: a little bit later on is going to be in
Speaker 1: Detroit tonight. Donald Trump Oaks, Pennsylvania. You're following along here
Speaker 1: on your home game with Tim Walls in Wisconsin. He
Speaker 1: goes to Eau Claire and Green Bay. And we've got
Speaker 1: a raft of new polling data to sift through here.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you do the Sunday morning shows
Speaker 1: they don't always drive the conversation the way they used to,
Speaker 1: but much of it centered around this tightening in the
Speaker 1: campaign at the top of the ticket and the fight
Speaker 1: over some very important demographics. We're joined by Laura Davison
Speaker 1: for more here Bloomberg News Politics editor with a new week.
Speaker 1: We've only got a few three weeks left of this.
Speaker 3: It's about time I saw.
Speaker 1: You in there. You're cracking the team together in the newsroom.
Speaker 1: I don't know where you're deploying resources now, but the
Speaker 1: campaigns are pretty clear about where they are in the
Speaker 1: swing states, unless you're doing a California romp or something
Speaker 1: like that for Donald Trump. But we're going to be
Speaker 1: talking with Cliff Young in a moment from IPSOS. This
Speaker 1: has become a one point race, maybe a two point
Speaker 1: race anywhere you look, which means a tide race. Is
Speaker 1: that how you see it.
Speaker 4: That's essentially where we are. And some of these national
Speaker 4: polls we saw some new numbers over the weekend have
Speaker 4: really tightened. Harris was up maybe three or four points
Speaker 4: in some of these, and now it's a one point race.
Speaker 4: This is something we see as you get closer. You know,
Speaker 4: some of those people who are undecided break one way
Speaker 4: or another. But you know, some of the momentum and
Speaker 4: you know, the pulling ahead that Harris was doing in
Speaker 4: you know, August, early September, a lot of that has
Speaker 4: flatt lined now and this is you know, going to
Speaker 4: be a race that is going to be want on
Speaker 4: the margins. And that's why you see you know, Trump,
Speaker 4: for example, reaching out to women this week, holding a
Speaker 4: Fox town hall specifically year towards women. Harris this morning
Speaker 4: out with a plan trying to appeal to black men.
Speaker 4: So this is both sides are kind of realizing where the.
Speaker 1: Week are, where the week spots are. Did these eleventh
Speaker 1: hour pitches work typically? I mean we're in within three
Speaker 1: weeks here. These are obviously constituencies that we're hoping to
Speaker 1: get some attention before. Now.
Speaker 4: You know, for Trump, I mean, opinions of him are
Speaker 4: so baked in that that may not move the needle
Speaker 4: a bunch. You know, Harris has been hearing time and
Speaker 4: time again from voters, we want to know who you are,
Speaker 4: we want to know what your policies are. So giving
Speaker 4: people more information, you know, at least it's acknowledging what
Speaker 4: people are saying they want However, that does give your
Speaker 4: opponent more fodder to attack you with. It gives people
Speaker 4: to find something that they don't like. You know, we
Speaker 4: heard Obama last week saying that, you know, he's hearing
Speaker 4: from from young black men in particular, that they are
Speaker 4: coming up with excuses to not vote for Harris. And
Speaker 4: so you see this tension playing out within the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: Interesting to hear Kamala Harris yesterday calling for medical records.
Speaker 1: I don't know if tax returns are coming up here,
Speaker 1: but they The campaign dispatched speaker Mike Johnson on to
Speaker 1: Sunday morning talk shows to speak to Donald Trump's health,
Speaker 1: which is interesting as someone who's not a doctor speaking here.
Speaker 1: But what does that tell you about the state of
Speaker 1: the Harris campaign When we're coming back around on issues
Speaker 1: like this with Poles showing them within a statistical time.
Speaker 4: You know, they realized that that age is an issue
Speaker 4: in this campaign. You know, just ask Joe Biden, you know.
Speaker 4: And so Harris is you know, she's significantly younger, you
Speaker 4: know she you know is it looks at when they're
Speaker 4: next to each other on the stage. You could really
Speaker 4: see that during the debate. You know, Trump has been
Speaker 4: able to avoid a lot of the age related criticism
Speaker 4: that Biden was hit with, even though he's only a
Speaker 4: couple of years younger. But this is, you know, something
Speaker 4: that you know, our polling shows that people you know
Speaker 4: are worried that, you know, candidates in their late seventies
Speaker 4: early eighties are too old.
Speaker 1: City President Trump, though, does it he and he doesn't
Speaker 1: seem to be weighed down by these questions that he
Speaker 1: has faced from months.
Speaker 4: It's it's it's really sort of you know, like you know,
Speaker 4: sort of the teflon don you know, stereotype that a
Speaker 4: lot of these things that would have been a major
Speaker 4: issue for other politicians just don't matter for him. He
Speaker 4: also is sort of advantaged in that because he has
Speaker 4: a very unique speaking style. You know Biden, when he speaks,
Speaker 4: he you know, is long, stuffered from a stutter. He
Speaker 4: sounded old in a way that Trump. It's sort of like,
Speaker 4: was that you know, is that age or is that
Speaker 4: just you know how Trump's you know, speaking patterns exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone ages differently, as we have learned here as well.
Speaker 1: So tomorrow pretty important sit down with Donald Trump. It'll
Speaker 1: be right at this time, right here on this network
Speaker 1: with our editor in chief sitting down with the former
Speaker 1: president for the better part of an hour. I suspect
Speaker 1: you never know what Donald Trump's gonna say. What his
Speaker 1: closing argument really does seem to be the border doesn't
Speaker 1: matter what question you ask, we come back to the border.
Speaker 1: What's Kamala Harris's closing argument.
Speaker 4: She is trying to craft this economic message of this
Speaker 4: you know, opportunity, economy, you know, the border is the
Speaker 4: top issue for many of in Trump's base. The economy
Speaker 4: is sort of broadly the top issue in this race.
Speaker 4: So she is you know, talking about, you know, both
Speaker 4: making her own case for on housing, on taxes, on
Speaker 4: you know, creating pathways to education, as well as, you know,
Speaker 4: refuting Trump's policies, which really are centered around tariffs. She's
Speaker 4: branded them as a national sales tax. Democrats have not
Speaker 4: been particularly good about coming up with some of these
Speaker 4: catchphrases to explain these more complex, you know, economic you
Speaker 4: know proposals to the American people. That seems to be
Speaker 4: one that's sticking.
Speaker 1: Great to have some time with Laura Davison. Thank you,
Speaker 1: Laura as always driving our political coverage here in Washington.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Politics editor on Balance of Power. I'm Joe
Speaker 1: Matthew in Washington. As I mentioned, we were going to
Speaker 1: add the voice of Cliff Young here, who's coming in
Speaker 1: once again from IPSO with new numbers over the weekend
Speaker 1: that really get to the demographics that Laura is talking
Speaker 1: about here for Kamala Harris, young black men. And there
Speaker 1: was a conversation on the late edition of Ballast of
Speaker 1: Power here on Friday with Quenton James as president of
Speaker 1: the Collective Pack political strategist. Here's what he told Kaylee
Speaker 1: Lines about this challenge for the Harris campaign.
Speaker 5: Listen, I think the Republicans and Don rep have done
Speaker 5: a good job of engaging black men, of going after
Speaker 5: the black vote. One of my criticisms of the Democrats,
Speaker 5: and I'm a Democrat and proud of it, is that
Speaker 5: we haven't spent enough money and done enough work to
Speaker 5: engage black men on these questions around the economy, on
Speaker 5: you know, things beyond kind of you know, policing and
Speaker 5: criminal justice. Those things are important as well, but how
Speaker 5: do we actually you know again, raise wages, you know,
Speaker 5: improve work and bill wealth for black men. Those are
Speaker 5: big concerns and so there have been efforts from the
Speaker 5: right to you know, sometimes confuse but sometimes persuade black men,
Speaker 5: and so we got to acknowledge that and recognize that
Speaker 5: and go out there and work hard and earn their vote.
Speaker 1: This is where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Cliffield,
Speaker 1: President US Public Affairs at ipsoc's with us in studio here.
Speaker 1: Great to see at the table as always, welcome back,
Speaker 1: Great to be here. You're out with new numbers over
Speaker 1: the weekend that we're going to spend some time on
Speaker 1: here in your work with ABC News. That really helped
Speaker 1: to drive the conversation. But just broadly speaking, I don't
Speaker 1: know if it's seasonal depression, if people are feeling weird
Speaker 1: about what's going on in this country, but everyone woke
Speaker 1: up with a different idea today. There seemed to be
Speaker 1: a new feeling. I don't know if it's the fact
Speaker 1: that this race is tightening, but I keep hearing from
Speaker 1: people off the record, Democrats and Republicans that Donald Trump
Speaker 1: is taking the upper hand in this race. What's happening.
Speaker 1: What's the backdrop for this feeling?
Speaker 6: There's a new normal. And what we can say is
Speaker 6: that whether it's at the national level or at the
Speaker 6: state level, there has been a narrowing, ever so slightly.
Speaker 6: A point here, that's half a point there. That's all takes, right,
Speaker 6: But there is a concernable and real trend towards Donald Trump,
Speaker 6: and ultimately I would make the argument that he right
Speaker 6: now is winning the framing war over the economy. It's
Speaker 6: the economy, the economy and the economy, or more specifically inflation.
Speaker 6: And if you go through and look at those ads
Speaker 6: in the Swing States, they really make the connection between
Speaker 6: the Biden administration and high inflation, the Biden administration and
Speaker 6: Kamala they're very, very effective right now.
Speaker 1: So when we talk about the constituencies that Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: is chasing young black men and suburban women, what you
Speaker 1: just said fulfills both of those prophecies for Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: right that's the why. It's the economy.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's it's inflation. And I call them here often
Speaker 6: Biden's inflation orphans. Kamal was able to bring them back
Speaker 6: into the fold when she stepped in her framing of
Speaker 6: the the The opportunity economy has been effective, but not
Speaker 6: as effective as effective as the inflation message. On the
Speaker 6: Trump side, Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, younger Americans, these are
Speaker 6: the key constituencies that Donald Trump right now is winning over.
Speaker 1: Interesting to think about it this way, because Donald Trump
Speaker 1: answers every question, as we just said, with the border,
Speaker 1: and that's what he was talking about largely yesterday. Why
Speaker 1: not just continue to hammer the economy as your single issue.
Speaker 6: Well, Donald Trump as a spokesman is a little bit
Speaker 6: all over the place. Yeah, he's not so focused. The
Speaker 6: border issues are really important, especially for his base. They
Speaker 6: mobilize the Republican base. But if you look at those
Speaker 6: ads that are playing out in the key swing states,
Speaker 6: they're all about the economy.
Speaker 7: They're all about inflation.
Speaker 1: So let's take a look at what you learned. This
Speaker 1: is ipso's ABC News among likely voters. We should point
Speaker 1: out a national poll fifty to forty eight percent. Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris leads Donald Trump. In September, she led that same
Speaker 1: poll by five percent. Now for a lot of people,
Speaker 1: that sounds like nothing. You're talking about two or three points.
Speaker 1: But in erase this close everything.
Speaker 8: Isn't it?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 7: There obviously is a margin veria.
Speaker 6: We have a little bit of a sample bounds here there,
Speaker 6: but definitely things have tightened. This will be a game
Speaker 6: of inches. Indeed, only a few hundred thousand votes will
Speaker 6: matter in those key swing states, and this poll should
Speaker 6: be concerning for the Harris camp. Obviously things can change
Speaker 6: looking forward, but this narrowing definitely benefits Trump in his campaign.
Speaker 1: You learned as well, fifty six percent of Americans now
Speaker 1: favorite deporting all undocumented immigrants. That is up twenty points
Speaker 1: from the first time Donald Trump ran eight years ago.
Speaker 1: Maybe he is them choosing the right issue to speak
Speaker 1: to off the cuff.
Speaker 6: Yeah, immigration deportation, unbridled migration, migrants over the border resonate
Speaker 6: a cross party lines, especially in swing states, a swing
Speaker 6: state like Arizona specifically. It's even an issue that Latinos
Speaker 6: are divided on. They have certain sort of reservation about
Speaker 6: the border policy and border policies with the Biden administration.
Speaker 6: So yeah, it's an issue that resonates at this point.
Speaker 6: Maybe it carves off half a point here, a quarter
Speaker 6: point there, but there is a method to his madness.
Speaker 1: Does history tell us anything about the final weeks of
Speaker 1: a campaign, the closing three weeks that we're in now,
Speaker 1: as to whether you would see a break in the
Speaker 1: numbers from here or is this pretty much what these
Speaker 1: polls are going to look like on the eve of
Speaker 1: the election.
Speaker 6: It always matters, I think, especially an electoral scenario like
Speaker 6: this one, which is so close up until election day.
Speaker 6: Those critical messages can potentially carve off some voters here
Speaker 6: or there that can ultimately push the campaign across the
Speaker 6: finish line.
Speaker 7: It will matter up to election day.
Speaker 1: So could you expect real movement?
Speaker 5: Though?
Speaker 1: I guess this is my question. You're talking about a
Speaker 1: quarter of a point here. It sounds like this is
Speaker 1: going to be a two point race until we find
Speaker 1: out who want.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we're not going to see jumps like five points,
Speaker 6: but we might see trends one way or the other.
Speaker 6: Ever so slight, ever so soft, but still discernible.
Speaker 1: Looks like Kamala Harris has agreed to an interview with
Speaker 1: Fox News, which is really interesting seeing her media exposure
Speaker 1: just last week alone. Right, it was Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert.
Speaker 1: We had the sixty minute shot and then the view,
Speaker 1: most of it pretty friendly interviewers as opposed to a
Speaker 1: hard hitting sort of sit down being challenged by a journalist.
Speaker 1: None would be more than that, I suspect than Fox
Speaker 1: News to any of these late decisions. When it comes
Speaker 1: to messaging advertising also promised to move numbers. Or is
Speaker 1: this something that's fun for me and you to talk about.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I think interviews with candidates are important, obviously, but what
Speaker 6: really matters at the end of the day are those
Speaker 6: messages in a loco in the Swing States via advertising
Speaker 6: via word of mouth. Obviously, if she messes up, that's
Speaker 6: not good for her. Probably there's more downside for her
Speaker 6: than upside on Fox. But ultimately it's going to be
Speaker 6: the entire opera of communications that matters.
Speaker 1: This is going to be Wednesday, six p m. Eastern Time.
Speaker 1: So here you have our two candidate interviews, Donald Trump
Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg tomorrow at noon, Kamala Harris, Fox
Speaker 1: News Wednesday at six Brett behar is going to do
Speaker 1: the interview. What does that tell you though about the
Speaker 1: type of voters she's aiming at when you when you
Speaker 1: cross over to do a Fox News interview, She's not
Speaker 1: looking to turn Republicans into Democratic voters as she is
Speaker 1: it for the nicky Haley supporters who are looking.
Speaker 7: For a home.
Speaker 6: No, I think she's looking for those inflation orphans. They're
Speaker 6: on there on the other side as well. They're working
Speaker 6: class and and and and lower middle class individuals that
Speaker 6: might watch Fox for its news value. Specifically, remember younger Americans,
Speaker 6: Hispanic Americans, Black Americans, all of which have have have
Speaker 6: basically deviated from the fold. They're trying to bring them
Speaker 6: back in.
Speaker 1: Does a holster like you sit around thinking about October
Speaker 1: surprises or have we had one or two or three already?
Speaker 1: Is there a moment that moves this race one way
Speaker 1: or the other that you're waiting for that you can't predict.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well we've had a lot of moments we have,
Speaker 6: and that shifted things to shifted.
Speaker 1: There on the first day of October.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it really depend on the event, if there's an event,
Speaker 6: and what's the qualitative nature of the event, how big
Speaker 6: and existential is it actually, But ultimately we're most worried
Speaker 6: about whether our polls are right, we have the level right,
Speaker 6: because it's oh so close that a point off in
Speaker 6: one direction or the other could really define the deck.
Speaker 1: Do you secretly hope that it's not that close for
Speaker 1: the sake of the country, that we have a clear
Speaker 1: winner after November?
Speaker 6: Well, to be quite frank, as a polster, I ciccretly
Speaker 6: hope that it is that close.
Speaker 7: Because our polling is showing us that close.
Speaker 1: All news is local apparently, but even the candidates themselves
Speaker 1: are saying it now, let's hope for a blowout. So
Speaker 1: we aren't doing us for a month after election day.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we have the day after issue to what I said,
Speaker 6: will the American population except.
Speaker 1: The l on that extent to which Americans are prepared
Speaker 1: to wait?
Speaker 7: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Well, first and foremost, we know that super majority of Americans.
Speaker 7: Say they will accept the results.
Speaker 6: Republicans are a little bit more sort of wishy washy
Speaker 6: because they think the result probably won't be fair, more
Speaker 6: likely not to be fair.
Speaker 7: But time really matters. The longer it.
Speaker 6: Takes to count and get it together, so the less
Speaker 6: likely people are to believe the results.
Speaker 1: Which is troubling because it took us till Saturday last time.
Speaker 1: We could do it again. Cliff Young with us live
Speaker 1: in Washington from IPSOS. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken
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Speaker 1: So if if you haven't gathered yet, the race is tied,
Speaker 1: it's within the margin. And everyone woke up this morning
Speaker 1: thinking that things had shifted enough that they might look
Speaker 1: at things differently. Let's check out the actual numbers here
Speaker 1: with a big pile of polling data over the weekend.
Speaker 1: We talked to Cliff Young from IPSOS a little while ago.
Speaker 1: If so's ABC News, Harris leading Trump among likely voters
Speaker 1: nationally by two points fifty forty eight. NBC had to
Speaker 1: pull out Harris and Trump tied among registered voters a
Speaker 1: different metric, forty eight to forty eight. Yeah, a real tie.
Speaker 1: Last month, Harris was up by five in each of
Speaker 1: those polls. Okay, CBS News, you go, Harris leads Trump
Speaker 1: nationally likely voters. Here we go again, fifty one forty
Speaker 1: eight and a one point tightening over the last month.
Speaker 1: And we've seen Donald Trump more specifically, chip away at
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris's margins and overall Democratic Party margins among black
Speaker 1: voters and among the voters. So that's the baseline as
Speaker 1: we wait to spend some time with Rick Davis and
Speaker 1: Genie Shanzo Kamala Harris coming out over the weekend with
Speaker 1: three weeks to go, not so much on an issue,
Speaker 1: but questions about Donald Trump. Framing him is dangerous and
Speaker 1: while we're at it, unhealthy. Here's Kamala Harris from the stump.
Speaker 10: He refuses to release his medical records.
Speaker 8: I've done it.
Speaker 9: Every other presidential camp, every other presidential candidate in modern
Speaker 9: era has done it.
Speaker 8: Here's the thing.
Speaker 11: It makes you wonder. It makes you wonder. Why does
Speaker 11: his staff want him to hide away?
Speaker 8: One must question? One must question.
Speaker 12: Are they afraid that people will see that he.
Speaker 3: Is too weak and unstable.
Speaker 13: To leave?
Speaker 1: Okay, crowd loved it, but does this new line of
Speaker 1: attack resonate around the country? Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo
Speaker 1: join us right now our signature panel on the Monday edition.
Speaker 1: She is, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor and political science
Speaker 1: professor at Iona University. Rick Davis partner at Stone Court Capital.
Speaker 1: Great to see you both here. Genie. I'm pretty sure
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is not going to be putting his medical
Speaker 1: records out there. Aside from the letter that says he's
Speaker 1: like the healthiest man in the universe. My question is,
Speaker 1: does anyone care. Does that not sound like a race
Speaker 1: from a few cycles ago? Does anyone care about medical records,
Speaker 1: tax returns, etc? As long as Donald Trump is who
Speaker 1: we're talking about, You know, I do.
Speaker 8: Think people care to this extent. He is the oldest.
Speaker 9: Person running in history, and of course we don't know
Speaker 9: what his health is, and that's an enormous risk for
Speaker 9: all of us. I am a strong proponent by the
Speaker 9: way of releasing both health antax returns. Although I agree
Speaker 9: with you it's not going to happen, but I do
Speaker 9: think voters need to be reminded. I'm glad she's out
Speaker 9: there asking these kinds of questions. I think it is
Speaker 9: where she should be. But I don't think it is
Speaker 9: enough to stop there, because it's certainly not the most
Speaker 9: important issue on people's minds.
Speaker 1: Well Speaker Johnson had an answer to this challenge from
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. He hit the Sunday Show circuit to make
Speaker 1: it clear that Donald Trump is different than the rest
Speaker 1: of us.
Speaker 5: Should Donald Trump release all of his metal record.
Speaker 13: He has, he issued the records of his physicians. Kamala
Speaker 13: Harris issued her medical records as a diversion because she's desperate,
Speaker 13: because she's sinking in the polls. Donald Trump's health is
Speaker 13: on display. Everyone in America can see it. The man
Speaker 13: works NonStop, he never quits. He probably sleeps four hours
Speaker 13: a night. He doesn't require as much sleep as the
Speaker 13: average person. He's an unusual figure.
Speaker 1: Well, Genie, what do you think our medical records are diverse?
Speaker 9: You know, I don't think it is a diversion. I
Speaker 9: do think the issue of age plays Look at it
Speaker 9: played big for Joe Biden. It got him out of
Speaker 9: the race. But again, I don't think it's the only
Speaker 9: issue on voter's mind. So it is a question she
Speaker 9: should ask. It is a question that excites a democratic
Speaker 9: rally crowd. But this is all about getting to those
Speaker 9: undecided voters, people who may or may not vote, And
Speaker 9: for those folks, it is all about the economy. And
Speaker 9: so you know Bloomberg's forte that's where she's got to be.
Speaker 9: What is she going to do for them different than
Speaker 9: what has happened in that regard under the Biden administration
Speaker 9: because they aren't quite happy with that. So again that's
Speaker 9: where I think the closing message should be.
Speaker 1: Okay, I appreciate that, Genie Rick, I'd love for you
Speaker 1: to take a swing at this, because in the time
Speaker 1: that you were running presidential campaigns, you wouldn't dare say
Speaker 1: no to a challenge like that, right, this was part
Speaker 1: of the process. But at your tax returns, put out
Speaker 1: your medical records. Are we just beyond that now?
Speaker 11: Yeah? I mean in two thousand, when John McCain first ran,
Speaker 11: we literally got eight hundred pages of medical records from
Speaker 11: his entire career in the Militarians and subsequent to that
Speaker 11: and put him out for public view. Things have changed
Speaker 11: a lot, but not that much. I mean, one of
Speaker 11: the things that Trump campaign has to be very aware
Speaker 11: of is there are people who haven't made up their
Speaker 11: mind on him. It's a very personal decision to pick
Speaker 11: a president. It is not like picking a senator or
Speaker 11: a governor. You know, American voters like to feel like
Speaker 11: they're part of that equation, that they've kicked the tires,
Speaker 11: that they know the person. And so I do think
Speaker 11: there could be potential value in the Harris campaign going
Speaker 11: after Donald Trump. You know, his capacity to lead, his
Speaker 11: capacity to function as president because of his age and
Speaker 11: his health. And I think that even Johnson's comments raise
Speaker 11: a specter like the guy's only getting you know, four
Speaker 11: hours of sleep at night. I'm sorry, I want my
Speaker 11: president to get eight hours to sleep at night. I
Speaker 11: don't think that's such a good thing. And so and
Speaker 11: then when you see him on the stump, which is why,
Speaker 11: you know, the Harris campaign says, watch his rallies, he's
Speaker 11: not very functional on the stump. So the reality is,
Speaker 11: I do think this is a line that she's going
Speaker 11: to pursue because she saw it work very effectively against
Speaker 11: her boss, President Biden, and she wants employ some of
Speaker 11: that concern that voters might have. And I think the
Speaker 11: punch line at the end is, and do you really want,
Speaker 11: you know, jd Vance as your president? Because of the
Speaker 11: infirmity that exists, The potential exists for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: But of course people have never looked at him that way,
Speaker 1: not the way they looked at Joe Biden. Genius Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris going to have to work overtime to make Donald
Speaker 1: Trump look older than he appears on the stump because
Speaker 1: the you know, the stem Winders, the Hannibal Electers, the
Speaker 1: sharks and electric votes and all that stuff don't seem
Speaker 1: to be moving anybody in that direction.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, he comes across in a much different
Speaker 9: way than Joe Biden. But if you actually listen to him,
Speaker 9: if you pay attention, which is why they keep telling everybody,
Speaker 9: go watch the rallies, you can see that he has
Speaker 9: aged as we all have since twenty sixteen. And he
Speaker 9: is the oldest person to run myself, and and you
Speaker 9: know he's the oldest person to run.
Speaker 8: He would be very.
Speaker 9: Old if he got into office by way of presidential
Speaker 9: old and this is something Americans told us very clearly
Speaker 9: they're not comfortable with. So I do think it is
Speaker 9: something she needs to talk about and keep talking about.
Speaker 8: But for those undecided.
Speaker 9: Voters, it's got to be more about them than Donald Trump.
Speaker 9: And this is where I think she's got some work
Speaker 9: to do. What are they going to risk if they
Speaker 9: choose Donald Trump? Are they going to risk their healthcare,
Speaker 9: their freedoms, their jobs, the economy, are they going to
Speaker 9: get more taxes? You know, all of those things. She's
Speaker 9: got to talk to those undecided voters in a way
Speaker 9: that matters to them, not in a way that is
Speaker 9: solely about Trump's age. Although again I think it's an
Speaker 9: important line of attack, but it can't be the only one.
Speaker 1: In that event in North Carolina where Kamala Harris was
Speaker 1: talking where we just showed that bit of video and
Speaker 1: heard that sound from They will begin early voting on Thursday.
Speaker 1: We spoke earlier this hour with Mike Shephard about the
Speaker 1: confusion and the misinformation surrounding Hurricane Helene that has really
Speaker 1: hampered some efforts in the western part of the state.
Speaker 1: But knowing that this is happening now, Kamala Harris said,
Speaker 1: the election is here. I keep reminding everybody out we're
Speaker 1: twenty two days out, but the election is here. To
Speaker 1: what extent do you recalibrate your messaging knowing that people
Speaker 1: are voting while you're talking.
Speaker 11: Look, I mean it's typical in every election, But I
Speaker 11: would say we are now into the third week before
Speaker 11: the election, and this is closing arguments. The third week
Speaker 11: is different than the fourth week, and so it's a
Speaker 11: sprint now to election day. And as you describe North
Speaker 11: Carolina voters are voting today, as are a dozen other states,
Speaker 11: and so you're in the election, and so if these
Speaker 11: aren't the closing arguments, then then you're not going to
Speaker 11: be making any at this stage. And I do think
Speaker 11: you know what she's doing in North Carolina is drawing
Speaker 11: attention to a population that has been distracted by their
Speaker 11: own concerns and troubles due to the hurricane, and trying
Speaker 11: to get them to reset into the focus of this election.
Speaker 11: And notice the location she is going to be hitting
Speaker 11: suburban and urban locations on the coast, staying away from
Speaker 11: the affected areas and trying to drive up the vote.
Speaker 11: They are knowing that it could be difficult out in
Speaker 11: western North Carolina to actually you know, vote in any
Speaker 11: way by being in person or by mail. So she's
Speaker 11: got to go where she can pick up the votes
Speaker 11: the best, the easiest way, and that's going to be
Speaker 11: in those urban and coastal communities.
Speaker 1: As we mentioned today, it's on the Erie, Pennsylvania. We'll
Speaker 1: be making a stop at a small business to talk with
Speaker 1: black men, and we'll hold a rally tonight heading for Detroit. Later.
Speaker 1: Trump is in Oaks, Pennsylvania, So we really are zeroing
Speaker 1: in on these targeted states here, Genie, We're going to
Speaker 1: talk next hour about the constituencies that Kamala Harris is
Speaker 1: working overtime to appeal to. As I just mentioned, young
Speaker 1: black men, and it's going to be also young Latino men.
Speaker 1: As well, showing a real deficit in the polls to
Speaker 1: where she was just a month ago. But with what
Speaker 1: I just heard from Rick Davis, we've got three weeks
Speaker 1: to go here. This is closing argument time. Is there
Speaker 1: a time left to cater your message to specific demographics
Speaker 1: at this point.
Speaker 3: She has to.
Speaker 9: You know, what we're seeing is when you look at
Speaker 9: black voters, and we saw this in the IPSOS poll,
Speaker 9: they are back in her corner in a way they
Speaker 9: weren't with Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race.
Speaker 9: But she is still not up to the point where
Speaker 9: Joe Biden was the ninety percent he got in twenty twenty.
Speaker 9: And that's where she needs to be. You know, you
Speaker 9: could we could talk a lot about how she should
Speaker 9: be on closing arguments now, but the reality is she
Speaker 9: needs to do both. She needs to reach those targeted
Speaker 9: voters and she needs to do closing arguments. She just
Speaker 9: doesn't have the luxury of sitting back. She's got to
Speaker 9: be aggressive as she goes forward, and quite frankly, she's
Speaker 9: got to take a something of a page from Donald
Speaker 9: Trump's book, and she's got to be aggressive, and she's
Speaker 9: got to scare people straight, scare them in her mind
Speaker 9: into seeing what the reality of their lives in a
Speaker 9: Trump two point zero might be and why they should
Speaker 9: not risk it. That's what she's going to have to do.
Speaker 9: And we heard, you know, Barack Obama and the Stump
Speaker 9: trying to make the case. He got some pushback on that.
Speaker 9: But one of the big questions he asked as it
Speaker 9: pertains to North Carolina, which is a question she would ask,
Speaker 9: when did it become okay?
Speaker 8: When did it become okay to lie to people in need?
Speaker 9: Those are the questions that she needs to ask because
Speaker 9: that should get people angry, hopefully on her part, to
Speaker 9: go out and vote for her.
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are signature panel here on
Speaker 1: the Monday edition of Balance of Powers.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play
Speaker 2: and then roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app listener
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.
Speaker 1: I'm Joel Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington as we
Speaker 1: keep our eyes on the campaign trail. Of course, whenever
Speaker 1: this does culminate it's going to be a big deal
Speaker 1: for the presidential race, Kaylee. In the meantime, we are
Speaker 1: walking through a new pile of polling data really over
Speaker 1: the weekend, and new messaging from both campaigns. Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: calling for Donald Trump's medical records, suggesting that he's dangerous
Speaker 1: and apparently unhealthy, and Donald Trump pretty interesting talking about
Speaker 1: the enemy within. Did you see these remarks over the weekend.
Speaker 10: I did on Fox Business with Maria Barbiromo, talking about
Speaker 10: the kind of activity we could see around this election
Speaker 10: when everyone, of course living with the memory of January sixth,
Speaker 10: twenty twenty one, including our next guest. Of course, it
Speaker 10: was interesting to hear him characterize the threat not necessarily
Speaker 10: coming from his own supporters, but those who may be
Speaker 10: in opposition to him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this was from Fox over the weekend.
Speaker 7: Let's listen.
Speaker 14: I think the bigger problem with the people from within.
Speaker 14: We have some very bad people. We have some sick people,
Speaker 14: radical left lunatics, and I think they're the and it
Speaker 14: should be very easily handled by if necessary, by national
Speaker 14: God or if really necessary, by the military.
Speaker 1: We have two enemies.
Speaker 15: We have the outside enemy and then we have the
Speaker 15: enemy from within and the enemy from within, in my opinion,
Speaker 15: is more dangers in China, Russia and all these countries,
Speaker 15: because if you have a smart president, he can handle
Speaker 15: them pretty easily.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's where we start our conversation with Denver Riggleman,
Speaker 1: the former Republican congressman from Virginia former Air Force intelligence
Speaker 1: is with us here, remembering as well, he's founder of
Speaker 1: RIG Security also helps to advise the January sixth Committee. Denver,
Speaker 1: welcome back. It's been a while. We have two enemies.
Speaker 1: How do you see it?
Speaker 16: Well, you know, it's so funny. I think every accusation
Speaker 16: is a confession when it comes to Donald Trump. And
Speaker 16: since I do know a little bit about January sixth,
Speaker 16: and thank you not on the Select Committee. When he's
Speaker 16: talking about this dehumanization on the other side and talking
Speaker 16: about you know, the evil and the enemy within and
Speaker 16: the election and things like that, he really is staging again.
Speaker 16: And it's not really that subtle anymore, this call for
Speaker 16: violence among his individuals.
Speaker 7: I mean, it's that simple.
Speaker 16: I don't think I think people are afraid to address
Speaker 16: what he's really saying. On so many levels, you're not
Speaker 16: going to hear Kamala Harris saying this or till walls,
Speaker 16: you will hear crazy coming from Donald Trump and from
Speaker 16: Jade Vance. And I think what you're seeing there is
Speaker 16: him actually reaching out the constituency again, just like with
Speaker 16: the Proud Boys, just like with the oath Keepers, just
Speaker 16: like with these individuals. When he said, you know, stand
Speaker 16: back and stand by. This is the same kind of
Speaker 16: messaging that he likes to do. And surely not that
Speaker 16: subtle anymore.
Speaker 10: Well, if it's not that subtle, as you see it, Denver,
Speaker 10: it does raise the question of whether the electorate actually
Speaker 10: takes him at his word when he says those things.
Speaker 10: What would you say to people who suggest Donald Trump
Speaker 10: is just not being serious, it's all just bluster.
Speaker 16: First of all, you know a great question. Those people
Speaker 16: are lying. I mean, of course they tick him as worthy,
Speaker 16: wouldn't be voting for him. And it's that simple too.
Speaker 16: And you know, here's the reason you no, I'm part
Speaker 16: of Republicans for Harrison. There's a reason that we're reaching
Speaker 16: out to specific constituencies is because we are going against
Speaker 16: other constituencies, you know, and you know some of those
Speaker 16: constituencies are like flat earthers, you know, those who believe
Speaker 16: that J six, you know, the election was stolen, those
Speaker 16: who believe that there's a that FEMA, you know, is
Speaker 16: there's actually conspiracy theories about FEMA around Hurricane Helene or
Speaker 16: Hurricane Milton, those idiots, right, and you're talking about too.
Speaker 16: You know, I don't know if you guys sawidated Tim
Speaker 16: Wallace emails where you know, they're accusing of the most
Speaker 16: vile things with made up emails that's coming out today,
Speaker 16: and I think that's what you're seeing. You have these
Speaker 16: disinformation constituencies and these radicalized constituencies, and then you have
Speaker 16: other people trying to reach out to a more sane
Speaker 16: and rational portion of the population.
Speaker 1: It's interesting what happens when people lose trust in the
Speaker 1: arbiters of truth, right, whether it's the media, whether it's
Speaker 1: the administration, the government as a whole here Denvers. So
Speaker 1: it's it's difficult to get a sense of where we're
Speaker 1: going with all this. There are reports the Washington Posts
Speaker 1: that our militias are moving around western North Carolina trying
Speaker 1: to block FEMA from getting to certain places following Hurricane Helene.
Speaker 1: So it's hard to tell where the miss information ends.
Speaker 1: But you know what your Republicans say, when it comes
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump, you can talk to me all day long.
Speaker 1: You remember the outrage following the Access Hollywood tape, but
Speaker 1: we moved on and the Donald Trump who was in
Speaker 1: the White House brought a good economy and no new wars.
Speaker 1: How do you respond to that?
Speaker 16: Oh goodness, you know, that's that's pretty interesting. You know
Speaker 16: they talked about the Access Hollywood tape and that he
Speaker 16: just talks, right, He just talks a game, but he
Speaker 16: doesn't really mean it. Well, I think Eugene Carroll would
Speaker 16: have Yeah, I think she would have an issue with that.
Speaker 16: He did exactly what he said he was going to
Speaker 16: do because he was found liable for sexual abuse and
Speaker 16: he's a felon. When you talk about January sixth, and
Speaker 16: you know, be there, it's going to be wild. Look
Speaker 16: at what he did to actually aggravate those type of
Speaker 16: conspiracy theories and those radicalizing types of memes that he
Speaker 16: put out there. And you just talked about FEMA, right
Speaker 16: armed groups or militias. He was part of fanning the
Speaker 16: flame there. Donald Trump is a conspiracy theorist or he
Speaker 16: likes to radicalize people when he knows it's untrue and
Speaker 16: both of those options are just awful for somebody who
Speaker 16: wants to be potused. So you know, again it comes
Speaker 16: down to I think this is about going against that
Speaker 16: type of disinformation on a level we have never seen.
Speaker 16: Social media is allowed it, but I just don't think Democrats, independence,
Speaker 16: and even the center right realize how strong the far
Speaker 16: right information ecosystem is.
Speaker 10: So with all that said, Denver, we're now just three
Speaker 10: weeks out from election day. What are you potentially looking
Speaker 10: for or bracing for on that day and in the
Speaker 10: days that could follow, Knowing it maybe uncertain for some
Speaker 10: time who actually won the election and whether or not
Speaker 10: they're going to accept those results.
Speaker 16: Listen that here's my greatest hope. I mean, and I'm
Speaker 16: glad you're asking me such easy questions today. Thanks guys.
Speaker 16: Holy crap, well just so easy.
Speaker 1: Just a balk of the park today.
Speaker 7: Here's my hope.
Speaker 16: I hope that that anybody in the left, center or center,
Speaker 16: you know, independence, when this election is called one way
Speaker 16: or the other, you know, they follow the norms of
Speaker 16: the United States Constitution and we allow for the peaceful
Speaker 16: transfer of power. The issue that you're going to have
Speaker 16: if Donald Trump wins or Donald Trump loses, is you're
Speaker 16: going to have a far right activated, I think type
Speaker 16: of violence centers. But it's not going to be at
Speaker 16: the capitol. What my biggest worry is counting centers. It's
Speaker 16: election workers, it's state capitals, it's specific individuals now right,
Speaker 16: it's actually going towards the very infrastructure of how the
Speaker 16: electoral votes are funneled upwards towards Congress. Those are the
Speaker 16: things that I worry about. Is this local, state and
Speaker 16: county level efforts that are going on in these areas,
Speaker 16: and these rises of militia movements, this rise of sort
Speaker 16: of this fantasy belief system that's driving people. You know,
Speaker 16: I was just looking at the Rod of Iron ministries
Speaker 16: with Mike Flynn, you know, and they have the Babylon
Speaker 16: Fire and they're screaming fight, fight, fight, And that's all
Speaker 16: under Sean Moon, the son of Shung Moon, who thinks
Speaker 16: the AR fifteen is an instrument of God. That's the
Speaker 16: issue that we have right now, is that violence is
Speaker 16: in the air. It's being perpetuated. Just at the start
Speaker 16: of this talking about Donald Trump's common about the election,
Speaker 16: He's not being subtle and he means it. And I
Speaker 16: think when we look at what he said in the
Speaker 16: past and what he's been convicted of as a felon
Speaker 16: and as being liable for sexual abuse, I think we
Speaker 16: see that he means what he says.
Speaker 1: So with that said, though, I just want to get
Speaker 1: a little more specific with your knowledge of January sixth,
Speaker 1: having advised the committee on this, are you of the
Speaker 1: mind then that we could see violence break out in
Speaker 1: state capitals around the country as opposed to here in Washington,
Speaker 1: And why would it be different this time?
Speaker 16: I think the issue that you're going to have in
Speaker 16: state capitals and when you're talking about specific counting centers,
Speaker 16: is that you have a very narrow pathway to victory
Speaker 16: for both candidate. You're talking about only a handful of states,
Speaker 16: and you're talking about counties within those states.
Speaker 1: And if you don't think that those.
Speaker 16: Who are looking at the numbers, at the data, at
Speaker 16: the polls, at the statistics, they're looking at the voter
Speaker 16: registrations and the early voting in those areas, if they're
Speaker 16: not concentrating on those areas with legal challenges immediately, or
Speaker 16: an army of lawyers looking at every single aspect of this,
Speaker 16: I think people's heads are in the sand. If they
Speaker 16: don't believe that. And I think when you talk about
Speaker 16: what's different this time is there's been a massive learning
Speaker 16: curve from January sixth to today. Now you're talking about,
Speaker 16: you know, you know, really a coordinated effort, but there
Speaker 16: was just enough dumb people right where that wasn't going
Speaker 16: to go off. But I think this time, I think
Speaker 16: they've learned that fighting from the inside is much more
Speaker 16: effective from fighting from the outside. And that's why you
Speaker 16: saw all these electoral type of issues going on, where
Speaker 16: you're seeing Moms for Liberty and these other groups trying
Speaker 16: to put candidates in these positions where they can actually
Speaker 16: affect the voting in those local areas. And I think
Speaker 16: that's what we need to worry about, is they've really
Speaker 16: really have a more specific plan this time going forward.
Speaker 10: Denver, we just have a minute left. But Joe and
Speaker 10: I have been talking about how there seems to be
Speaker 10: a different feeling this morning about the race and the
Speaker 10: likelihood that Donald Trump could win. Do you share that feeling?
Speaker 7: I do.
Speaker 16: I mean, I think I think the disinformation program has
Speaker 16: been very effective. I think I think this election was
Speaker 16: all always going to be close, and I think there
Speaker 16: has to come a time where you have to push
Speaker 16: on a level with reality and sanity, but you really
Speaker 16: have to get away from compassionate confrontation to just telling
Speaker 16: the truth about how awful and evil some of the
Speaker 16: things that are being set out there on the disinformation side.
Speaker 16: I do feel a switch. It's a little eerie, but
Speaker 16: that's why we're fighting, and that's why I think that
Speaker 16: we need to lean forward and do the best that
Speaker 16: we can to make sure sanity and reality win.
Speaker 10: All Right. Former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman, thank you so
Speaker 10: much for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio platform.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: Agar Shamali joins us right now for more on the
Speaker 1: Middle East. Hagar, it's great to have you back here,
Speaker 1: of course, former director for Syria and left at the
Speaker 1: National Security Council. Now Greenwich Media strategies we've been talking
Speaker 1: are about this new THAD missile defense system that the
Speaker 1: US has greenlit for use in Israel. It's going to
Speaker 1: bring about one hundred American troops along with it. They're
Speaker 1: needed to operate the system here and maybe train Israeli's
Speaker 1: while they're at it. At this phase, what does it
Speaker 1: tell you the motivation behind this deployment as a deterrent
Speaker 1: or an acknowledgment that Israel is about to go big.
Speaker 12: Well, perhaps a little bit of both, but it's not
Speaker 12: totally unprecedented to move this kind of missile defense system
Speaker 12: to Israel. The US moved the THAD missile defense system
Speaker 12: to Israel after the October seven attack last year, and
Speaker 12: so it is something that is meant to beef up
Speaker 12: that that security to definitely send a message across to
Speaker 12: all or across the Middle East that the US is
Speaker 12: going to defend Israel, is going to stand and support Israel,
Speaker 12: you know, in case of any kind of attack. But
Speaker 12: it certainly indicates that there is they are expecting.
Speaker 3: Something and they want to be there just in case.
Speaker 12: The US also has said that they know that Israel
Speaker 12: has narrowed down its targets in Iran in response to
Speaker 12: Iran's assault, so they clearly have an idea of what
Speaker 12: generally what of what Israel's considering. We know that Israel
Speaker 12: hasn't come to a definitive agreement yet or decision as
Speaker 12: to exactly what it's targeting in Iran. It does seem
Speaker 12: as days go by that it's going it's less and
Speaker 12: less likely to be the nuclear facilities.
Speaker 3: But it's still possible.
Speaker 12: It could always be oil fields, which obviously is going
Speaker 12: to lead to that uncertainty in the markets that you mentioned.
Speaker 12: But Israel also is aware of You know that targeting
Speaker 12: oil fields not only has an economic consequence, but an
Speaker 12: environmental one as well, And so I, in my opinion,
Speaker 12: I think we're looking more at Iran's military infrastructure, their
Speaker 12: weapons depots and things of this kind. Possibly certain leadership,
Speaker 12: but this is this is where I see things headed
Speaker 12: in general.
Speaker 3: But again, Prime Minister Natiyah.
Speaker 12: Who is feeling very bold, has been taking many risks
Speaker 12: in many gambles, and that is yet enough reason why
Speaker 12: the US likely is deploying that missile defense system, both
Speaker 12: to defend and as a deterrent, but also because they
Speaker 12: might expect some kind of response.
Speaker 10: Well, Hagar, as you describe, Netanyahu was feeling bold right now.
Speaker 10: He also his government has been kind of taking their
Speaker 10: time with this. We've been left on edge waiting for
Speaker 10: that response for some time now. The longer it takes,
Speaker 10: is it likelier that a cooler head prevails, if you will,
Speaker 10: or just that it is a very specific, targeted kind
Speaker 10: of response. I just wonder how the timeline factors in here.
Speaker 12: The timing is kind of part of the game, if
Speaker 12: you will. And I'm not trying to sound trite in
Speaker 12: this or make light of it, but the Iranians were
Speaker 12: very similar as well. I mean, and then they said
Speaker 12: that back back, this was a few months ago when
Speaker 12: they had their response. I'm sorry when when Ismael Hainia
Speaker 12: was assassinated in Iran, Iran said we're going to respond.
Speaker 3: And the waiting is part of the game.
Speaker 12: Is part of the effort to make everybody on unease
Speaker 12: and and to make them feel nervous and anxious and
Speaker 12: to await the suspense is.
Speaker 3: Part of it, and so Israel in this part. It
Speaker 3: could be part of the game for Israel.
Speaker 12: But I think also the Israeli government is thinking, you know,
Speaker 12: it's taking their time with their decision and trying to
Speaker 12: be smart about it and responsible about it, and well responsible,
Speaker 12: but I mean responsible for what they feel is there
Speaker 12: is what achieves their national security objectives, even if the
Speaker 12: US disagrees with that, and the Israeli government who the
Speaker 12: war has shifted and so they have a different playing
Speaker 12: ground here to play with, and that's that they are
Speaker 12: much more heavily engaged in Lebanon than we all anticipated
Speaker 12: a month ago only, and so they have to be
Speaker 12: aware of that that they're more heavily engaged in Lebanon.
Speaker 12: They've promised for further escalation in Lebanon, they've pursued a
Speaker 12: ground invasion, which calls for a whole different level of commitment.
Speaker 3: Gaza is still ongoing.
Speaker 12: Every time they withdraw from parts of Gaza, Hamas pops
Speaker 12: back up. Hamas is significantly diminished, but again they are
Speaker 12: still popping up in these areas, so you still see
Speaker 12: them engaged there, and so I believe they're really taking
Speaker 12: their time, that they do care about the US perspective
Speaker 12: and guidance. But again, and I've said this before, as
Speaker 12: you know, if there's a disagreement and we disagree all
Speaker 12: the time, the Israeli government, Natanyahu administration is certainly going
Speaker 12: to do what it feels as best for its survival.
Speaker 3: But I don't believe that they.
Speaker 12: Want to launch a full a full scale regional war.
Speaker 12: One could argue we're still in that at the moment,
Speaker 12: but a direct engagement with Iran.
Speaker 1: With that said, Hagar, how does Benjamin Netanyaho view the
Speaker 1: next three weeks in American politics, with the inflection point
Speaker 1: being our election on November fifth, Well, I.
Speaker 12: Want to I want to start off by saying that
Speaker 12: I believe the Bide administration has been very supportive of
Speaker 12: the Israeli government. And that said, I believe that nata
Speaker 12: Yah who doesn't feel that way or doesn't feel enough
Speaker 12: love because Natanya who has said that before and he
Speaker 12: and has been quite public about that. And that said,
Speaker 12: from his point of view, from the Israeli government point
Speaker 12: of view, Netta Ya, who is waiting with Beta breath
Speaker 12: to see what happens, because it will have an effect.
Speaker 3: Especially if you're.
Speaker 12: Talking about Trump versus Harris administration, there are going to
Speaker 12: be significant differences in their support of Israel.
Speaker 3: Both are going to support Israel. Both are going to
Speaker 3: be committed to Israel's defense.
Speaker 12: Israel's a non NATO ally of the United States and
Speaker 12: the US, through our laws, have pledged to maintain Israel's
Speaker 12: qualitative military edge, which means therefore it's superiority over anything
Speaker 12: military in the region. But that said, I think a
Speaker 12: Harris administration is going to try and twist Israel's arm more,
Speaker 12: is going to play more with the idea of conditioning AID,
Speaker 12: is going to be more loud and have a stronger
Speaker 12: tone about civilians being killed, whereas the Trump administration, I think,
Speaker 12: is going to say, you know, I'll give you what
Speaker 12: you need to wrap this up, but wrap it up.
Speaker 12: And that is what Trump has said over and over again.
Speaker 12: So Natiyau is watching very carefully. I don't think that's
Speaker 12: holding him back. I don't think that's what is contributing
Speaker 12: to this time that you're seeing this delay. But that said,
Speaker 12: he is watching very closely. He's trying to play both
Speaker 12: sides very closely. He knows that he's going to have
Speaker 12: to maintain f and ships on both sides depending who wins.
Speaker 12: And as you mentioned earlier, no one has been able
Speaker 12: to predict this. Don't ask me, I don't want to
Speaker 12: predict it because none of us.
Speaker 11: Know, Hagar.
Speaker 10: In our final moment with you here, we also learned
Speaker 10: over the weekend that Hesbela drones did kill four Israeli
Speaker 10: soldiers despite all of Israel's efforts to take out Hesbela capability,
Speaker 10: hence the incursions into southern Lebanon, which we're now more
Speaker 10: than a thousand people have died. What does this reveal
Speaker 10: about the capacity that Hesbela still has remaining despite all
Speaker 10: of Israel's efforts.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is an interesting one.
Speaker 12: So on one hand, Habela has been weakened much more
Speaker 12: than any of us could have expected this far in
Speaker 12: by the way, I believe even the Israeli government didn't
Speaker 12: expect Habella to be weakened the way it was if
Speaker 12: they looked at this six months ago, for example. And
Speaker 12: I can tell you I handled Hisbela when I worked
Speaker 12: in counter terres financing.
Speaker 3: It was in my portfolio in the US government. Since
Speaker 3: the two thousand and.
Speaker 12: Six war, we have been waiting for the showdown between
Speaker 12: Hasbela and Israelan has watched Habella arm itself so heavily
Speaker 12: in the meantime, and they still have more in their arsenal.
Speaker 12: They have significant precision missiles that when I was at
Speaker 12: the White House, Syria was sending to them called scud missiles,
Speaker 12: and so we know that Habela has this capability. So
Speaker 12: on one hand, they've significantly diminished their capabilities and thrown
Speaker 12: their operation into array because of how many leaders they've
Speaker 12: killed and how many how they've penetrated their communication systems.
Speaker 3: This really does a lot to undermine a terrorist group's operations.
Speaker 12: And apparently what I've read is that they've targeted at
Speaker 12: least half of their arsenal so far. That said, you
Speaker 12: still have on thousands, tens of thousands, likely of fighters
Speaker 12: Haasbela fighters, and a huge arsenal to begin with. So
Speaker 12: even if you've cut off half, you still have a
Speaker 12: big chunk remaining. So but I believe the Israeli government
Speaker 12: is aware of that. I mean, they know, they know
Speaker 12: what they're they're asking for by going in. They know
Speaker 12: what it means to escalate with Isabella, that it may
Speaker 12: go in phases, and right now israel I think the
Speaker 12: Israeli government is definitely the stronger one coming out of
Speaker 12: this blate. It's going to be all right, it comes
Speaker 12: to his mode.
Speaker 10: Hugar Shamali. Always great to have you. Thank you for
Speaker 10: joining us here. On balance of Power. In a programming
Speaker 10: note noontime tomorrow an exclusive interview between former President Donald
Speaker 10: Trump and Bloomberg Editor in chief John Mickelthwaite. You can
Speaker 10: find that right here on Bloomberg TV and radio.
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