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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power. It

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Speaker 1: is Monday here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. We're twenty two days out. Well, this is

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Speaker 1: pretty remarkable here with a race that seems to be

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Speaker 1: tightening with time instead of breaking out one way or

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Speaker 1: the other. Were, of course, always following the candidates on

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Speaker 1: the campaign trail as well today and we're going to

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Speaker 1: be headed back to the swing states. We're getting used

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Speaker 1: to the deal here, of course. Kamala Harris Eerie, Pennsylvania

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Speaker 1: a little bit later on is going to be in

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Speaker 1: Detroit tonight. Donald Trump Oaks, Pennsylvania. You're following along here

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Speaker 1: on your home game with Tim Walls in Wisconsin. He

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Speaker 1: goes to Eau Claire and Green Bay. And we've got

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Speaker 1: a raft of new polling data to sift through here.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you do the Sunday morning shows

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Speaker 1: they don't always drive the conversation the way they used to,

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Speaker 1: but much of it centered around this tightening in the

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Speaker 1: campaign at the top of the ticket and the fight

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Speaker 1: over some very important demographics. We're joined by Laura Davison

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Speaker 1: for more here Bloomberg News Politics editor with a new week.

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Speaker 1: We've only got a few three weeks left of this.

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Speaker 3: It's about time I saw.

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Speaker 1: You in there. You're cracking the team together in the newsroom.

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Speaker 1: I don't know where you're deploying resources now, but the

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Speaker 1: campaigns are pretty clear about where they are in the

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Speaker 1: swing states, unless you're doing a California romp or something

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Speaker 1: like that for Donald Trump. But we're going to be

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Speaker 1: talking with Cliff Young in a moment from IPSOS. This

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Speaker 1: has become a one point race, maybe a two point

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Speaker 1: race anywhere you look, which means a tide race. Is

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Speaker 1: that how you see it.

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Speaker 4: That's essentially where we are. And some of these national

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Speaker 4: polls we saw some new numbers over the weekend have

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Speaker 4: really tightened. Harris was up maybe three or four points

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Speaker 4: in some of these, and now it's a one point race.

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Speaker 4: This is something we see as you get closer. You know,

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Speaker 4: some of those people who are undecided break one way

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Speaker 4: or another. But you know, some of the momentum and

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Speaker 4: you know, the pulling ahead that Harris was doing in

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Speaker 4: you know, August, early September, a lot of that has

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Speaker 4: flatt lined now and this is you know, going to

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Speaker 4: be a race that is going to be want on

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Speaker 4: the margins. And that's why you see you know, Trump,

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Speaker 4: for example, reaching out to women this week, holding a

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Speaker 4: Fox town hall specifically year towards women. Harris this morning

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Speaker 4: out with a plan trying to appeal to black men.

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Speaker 4: So this is both sides are kind of realizing where the.

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Speaker 1: Week are, where the week spots are. Did these eleventh

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Speaker 1: hour pitches work typically? I mean we're in within three

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Speaker 1: weeks here. These are obviously constituencies that we're hoping to

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Speaker 1: get some attention before. Now.

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Speaker 4: You know, for Trump, I mean, opinions of him are

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Speaker 4: so baked in that that may not move the needle

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Speaker 4: a bunch. You know, Harris has been hearing time and

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Speaker 4: time again from voters, we want to know who you are,

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Speaker 4: we want to know what your policies are. So giving

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Speaker 4: people more information, you know, at least it's acknowledging what

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Speaker 4: people are saying they want However, that does give your

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Speaker 4: opponent more fodder to attack you with. It gives people

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Speaker 4: to find something that they don't like. You know, we

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Speaker 4: heard Obama last week saying that, you know, he's hearing

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Speaker 4: from from young black men in particular, that they are

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Speaker 4: coming up with excuses to not vote for Harris. And

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Speaker 4: so you see this tension playing out within the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 1: Interesting to hear Kamala Harris yesterday calling for medical records.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if tax returns are coming up here,

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Speaker 1: but they The campaign dispatched speaker Mike Johnson on to

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning talk shows to speak to Donald Trump's health,

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Speaker 1: which is interesting as someone who's not a doctor speaking here.

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Speaker 1: But what does that tell you about the state of

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Speaker 1: the Harris campaign When we're coming back around on issues

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Speaker 1: like this with Poles showing them within a statistical time.

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Speaker 4: You know, they realized that that age is an issue

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Speaker 4: in this campaign. You know, just ask Joe Biden, you know.

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Speaker 4: And so Harris is you know, she's significantly younger, you

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Speaker 4: know she you know is it looks at when they're

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Speaker 4: next to each other on the stage. You could really

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Speaker 4: see that during the debate. You know, Trump has been

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Speaker 4: able to avoid a lot of the age related criticism

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Speaker 4: that Biden was hit with, even though he's only a

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Speaker 4: couple of years younger. But this is, you know, something

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Speaker 4: that you know, our polling shows that people you know

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Speaker 4: are worried that, you know, candidates in their late seventies

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Speaker 4: early eighties are too old.

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Speaker 1: City President Trump, though, does it he and he doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem to be weighed down by these questions that he

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Speaker 1: has faced from months.

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Speaker 4: It's it's it's really sort of you know, like you know,

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Speaker 4: sort of the teflon don you know, stereotype that a

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Speaker 4: lot of these things that would have been a major

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Speaker 4: issue for other politicians just don't matter for him. He

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Speaker 4: also is sort of advantaged in that because he has

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Speaker 4: a very unique speaking style. You know Biden, when he speaks,

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Speaker 4: he you know, is long, stuffered from a stutter. He

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Speaker 4: sounded old in a way that Trump. It's sort of like,

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Speaker 4: was that you know, is that age or is that

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Speaker 4: just you know how Trump's you know, speaking patterns exactly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone ages differently, as we have learned here as well.

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Speaker 1: So tomorrow pretty important sit down with Donald Trump. It'll

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Speaker 1: be right at this time, right here on this network

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Speaker 1: with our editor in chief sitting down with the former

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Speaker 1: president for the better part of an hour. I suspect

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Speaker 1: you never know what Donald Trump's gonna say. What his

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Speaker 1: closing argument really does seem to be the border doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter what question you ask, we come back to the border.

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Speaker 1: What's Kamala Harris's closing argument.

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Speaker 4: She is trying to craft this economic message of this

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Speaker 4: you know, opportunity, economy, you know, the border is the

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Speaker 4: top issue for many of in Trump's base. The economy

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Speaker 4: is sort of broadly the top issue in this race.

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Speaker 4: So she is you know, talking about, you know, both

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Speaker 4: making her own case for on housing, on taxes, on

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Speaker 4: you know, creating pathways to education, as well as, you know,

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Speaker 4: refuting Trump's policies, which really are centered around tariffs. She's

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Speaker 4: branded them as a national sales tax. Democrats have not

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Speaker 4: been particularly good about coming up with some of these

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Speaker 4: catchphrases to explain these more complex, you know, economic you

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Speaker 4: know proposals to the American people. That seems to be

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Speaker 4: one that's sticking.

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Speaker 1: Great to have some time with Laura Davison. Thank you,

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Speaker 1: Laura as always driving our political coverage here in Washington.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Politics editor on Balance of Power. I'm Joe

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Speaker 1: Matthew in Washington. As I mentioned, we were going to

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Speaker 1: add the voice of Cliff Young here, who's coming in

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Speaker 1: once again from IPSO with new numbers over the weekend

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Speaker 1: that really get to the demographics that Laura is talking

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Speaker 1: about here for Kamala Harris, young black men. And there

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Speaker 1: was a conversation on the late edition of Ballast of

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Speaker 1: Power here on Friday with Quenton James as president of

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Speaker 1: the Collective Pack political strategist. Here's what he told Kaylee

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Speaker 1: Lines about this challenge for the Harris campaign.

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Speaker 5: Listen, I think the Republicans and Don rep have done

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Speaker 5: a good job of engaging black men, of going after

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Speaker 5: the black vote. One of my criticisms of the Democrats,

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Speaker 5: and I'm a Democrat and proud of it, is that

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Speaker 5: we haven't spent enough money and done enough work to

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Speaker 5: engage black men on these questions around the economy, on

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Speaker 5: you know, things beyond kind of you know, policing and

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Speaker 5: criminal justice. Those things are important as well, but how

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Speaker 5: do we actually you know again, raise wages, you know,

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Speaker 5: improve work and bill wealth for black men. Those are

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Speaker 5: big concerns and so there have been efforts from the

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Speaker 5: right to you know, sometimes confuse but sometimes persuade black men,

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Speaker 5: and so we got to acknowledge that and recognize that

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Speaker 5: and go out there and work hard and earn their vote.

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Speaker 1: This is where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Cliffield,

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Speaker 1: President US Public Affairs at ipsoc's with us in studio here.

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Speaker 1: Great to see at the table as always, welcome back,

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Speaker 1: Great to be here. You're out with new numbers over

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Speaker 1: the weekend that we're going to spend some time on

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Speaker 1: here in your work with ABC News. That really helped

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Speaker 1: to drive the conversation. But just broadly speaking, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it's seasonal depression, if people are feeling weird

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Speaker 1: about what's going on in this country, but everyone woke

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Speaker 1: up with a different idea today. There seemed to be

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Speaker 1: a new feeling. I don't know if it's the fact

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Speaker 1: that this race is tightening, but I keep hearing from

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Speaker 1: people off the record, Democrats and Republicans that Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is taking the upper hand in this race. What's happening.

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Speaker 1: What's the backdrop for this feeling?

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Speaker 6: There's a new normal. And what we can say is

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Speaker 6: that whether it's at the national level or at the

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Speaker 6: state level, there has been a narrowing, ever so slightly.

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Speaker 6: A point here, that's half a point there. That's all takes, right,

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Speaker 6: But there is a concernable and real trend towards Donald Trump,

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Speaker 6: and ultimately I would make the argument that he right

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Speaker 6: now is winning the framing war over the economy. It's

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Speaker 6: the economy, the economy and the economy, or more specifically inflation.

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Speaker 6: And if you go through and look at those ads

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Speaker 6: in the Swing States, they really make the connection between

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Speaker 6: the Biden administration and high inflation, the Biden administration and

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Speaker 6: Kamala they're very, very effective right now.

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Speaker 1: So when we talk about the constituencies that Kamala Harris

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Speaker 1: is chasing young black men and suburban women, what you

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Speaker 1: just said fulfills both of those prophecies for Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: right that's the why. It's the economy.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's it's inflation. And I call them here often

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Speaker 6: Biden's inflation orphans. Kamal was able to bring them back

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Speaker 6: into the fold when she stepped in her framing of

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Speaker 6: the the The opportunity economy has been effective, but not

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Speaker 6: as effective as effective as the inflation message. On the

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Speaker 6: Trump side, Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, younger Americans, these are

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Speaker 6: the key constituencies that Donald Trump right now is winning over.

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Speaker 1: Interesting to think about it this way, because Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: answers every question, as we just said, with the border,

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Speaker 1: and that's what he was talking about largely yesterday. Why

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Speaker 1: not just continue to hammer the economy as your single issue.

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Speaker 6: Well, Donald Trump as a spokesman is a little bit

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Speaker 6: all over the place. Yeah, he's not so focused. The

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Speaker 6: border issues are really important, especially for his base. They

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Speaker 6: mobilize the Republican base. But if you look at those

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Speaker 6: ads that are playing out in the key swing states,

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Speaker 6: they're all about the economy.

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Speaker 7: They're all about inflation.

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Speaker 1: So let's take a look at what you learned. This

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Speaker 1: is ipso's ABC News among likely voters. We should point

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Speaker 1: out a national poll fifty to forty eight percent. Kamala

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Speaker 1: Harris leads Donald Trump. In September, she led that same

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Speaker 1: poll by five percent. Now for a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: that sounds like nothing. You're talking about two or three points.

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Speaker 1: But in erase this close everything.

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Speaker 8: Isn't it?

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Speaker 9: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: There obviously is a margin veria.

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Speaker 6: We have a little bit of a sample bounds here there,

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Speaker 6: but definitely things have tightened. This will be a game

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Speaker 6: of inches. Indeed, only a few hundred thousand votes will

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Speaker 6: matter in those key swing states, and this poll should

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Speaker 6: be concerning for the Harris camp. Obviously things can change

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Speaker 6: looking forward, but this narrowing definitely benefits Trump in his campaign.

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Speaker 1: You learned as well, fifty six percent of Americans now

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Speaker 1: favorite deporting all undocumented immigrants. That is up twenty points

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Speaker 1: from the first time Donald Trump ran eight years ago.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he is them choosing the right issue to speak

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Speaker 1: to off the cuff.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, immigration deportation, unbridled migration, migrants over the border resonate

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Speaker 6: a cross party lines, especially in swing states, a swing

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Speaker 6: state like Arizona specifically. It's even an issue that Latinos

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Speaker 6: are divided on. They have certain sort of reservation about

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Speaker 6: the border policy and border policies with the Biden administration.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, it's an issue that resonates at this point.

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Speaker 6: Maybe it carves off half a point here, a quarter

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Speaker 6: point there, but there is a method to his madness.

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Speaker 1: Does history tell us anything about the final weeks of

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Speaker 1: a campaign, the closing three weeks that we're in now,

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Speaker 1: as to whether you would see a break in the

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Speaker 1: numbers from here or is this pretty much what these

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Speaker 1: polls are going to look like on the eve of

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Speaker 1: the election.

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Speaker 6: It always matters, I think, especially an electoral scenario like

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Speaker 6: this one, which is so close up until election day.

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Speaker 6: Those critical messages can potentially carve off some voters here

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Speaker 6: or there that can ultimately push the campaign across the

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Speaker 6: finish line.

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Speaker 7: It will matter up to election day.

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Speaker 1: So could you expect real movement?

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Speaker 5: Though?

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Speaker 1: I guess this is my question. You're talking about a

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Speaker 1: quarter of a point here. It sounds like this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a two point race until we find

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Speaker 1: out who want.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we're not going to see jumps like five points,

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Speaker 6: but we might see trends one way or the other.

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Speaker 6: Ever so slight, ever so soft, but still discernible.

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Speaker 1: Looks like Kamala Harris has agreed to an interview with

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Speaker 1: Fox News, which is really interesting seeing her media exposure

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Speaker 1: just last week alone. Right, it was Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert.

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Speaker 1: We had the sixty minute shot and then the view,

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Speaker 1: most of it pretty friendly interviewers as opposed to a

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Speaker 1: hard hitting sort of sit down being challenged by a journalist.

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Speaker 1: None would be more than that, I suspect than Fox

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Speaker 1: News to any of these late decisions. When it comes

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Speaker 1: to messaging advertising also promised to move numbers. Or is

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Speaker 1: this something that's fun for me and you to talk about.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I think interviews with candidates are important, obviously, but what

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Speaker 6: really matters at the end of the day are those

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Speaker 6: messages in a loco in the Swing States via advertising

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Speaker 6: via word of mouth. Obviously, if she messes up, that's

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Speaker 6: not good for her. Probably there's more downside for her

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Speaker 6: than upside on Fox. But ultimately it's going to be

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Speaker 6: the entire opera of communications that matters.

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Speaker 1: This is going to be Wednesday, six p m. Eastern Time.

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Speaker 1: So here you have our two candidate interviews, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg tomorrow at noon, Kamala Harris, Fox

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Speaker 1: News Wednesday at six Brett behar is going to do

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Speaker 1: the interview. What does that tell you though about the

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Speaker 1: type of voters she's aiming at when you when you

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Speaker 1: cross over to do a Fox News interview, She's not

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Speaker 1: looking to turn Republicans into Democratic voters as she is

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Speaker 1: it for the nicky Haley supporters who are looking.

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Speaker 7: For a home.

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Speaker 6: No, I think she's looking for those inflation orphans. They're

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Speaker 6: on there on the other side as well. They're working

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Speaker 6: class and and and and lower middle class individuals that

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Speaker 6: might watch Fox for its news value. Specifically, remember younger Americans,

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Speaker 6: Hispanic Americans, Black Americans, all of which have have have

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Speaker 6: basically deviated from the fold. They're trying to bring them

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Speaker 6: back in.

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Speaker 1: Does a holster like you sit around thinking about October

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Speaker 1: surprises or have we had one or two or three already?

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Speaker 1: Is there a moment that moves this race one way

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Speaker 1: or the other that you're waiting for that you can't predict.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, well we've had a lot of moments we have,

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Speaker 6: and that shifted things to shifted.

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Speaker 1: There on the first day of October.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it really depend on the event, if there's an event,

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Speaker 6: and what's the qualitative nature of the event, how big

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Speaker 6: and existential is it actually, But ultimately we're most worried

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Speaker 6: about whether our polls are right, we have the level right,

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Speaker 6: because it's oh so close that a point off in

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Speaker 6: one direction or the other could really define the deck.

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Speaker 1: Do you secretly hope that it's not that close for

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Speaker 1: the sake of the country, that we have a clear

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Speaker 1: winner after November?

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Speaker 6: Well, to be quite frank, as a polster, I ciccretly

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Speaker 6: hope that it is that close.

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Speaker 7: Because our polling is showing us that close.

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Speaker 1: All news is local apparently, but even the candidates themselves

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Speaker 1: are saying it now, let's hope for a blowout. So

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Speaker 1: we aren't doing us for a month after election day.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we have the day after issue to what I said,

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Speaker 6: will the American population except.

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Speaker 1: The l on that extent to which Americans are prepared

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Speaker 1: to wait?

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Speaker 7: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: Well, first and foremost, we know that super majority of Americans.

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Speaker 7: Say they will accept the results.

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Speaker 6: Republicans are a little bit more sort of wishy washy

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Speaker 6: because they think the result probably won't be fair, more

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Speaker 6: likely not to be fair.

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Speaker 7: But time really matters. The longer it.

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Speaker 6: Takes to count and get it together, so the less

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Speaker 6: likely people are to believe the results.

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Speaker 1: Which is troubling because it took us till Saturday last time.

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Speaker 1: We could do it again. Cliff Young with us live

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Speaker 1: in Washington from IPSOS. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken

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Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 2: and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can

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Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

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Speaker 2: York station. Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 1: So if if you haven't gathered yet, the race is tied,

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Speaker 1: it's within the margin. And everyone woke up this morning

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Speaker 1: thinking that things had shifted enough that they might look

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Speaker 1: at things differently. Let's check out the actual numbers here

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Speaker 1: with a big pile of polling data over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: We talked to Cliff Young from IPSOS a little while ago.

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Speaker 1: If so's ABC News, Harris leading Trump among likely voters

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Speaker 1: nationally by two points fifty forty eight. NBC had to

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Speaker 1: pull out Harris and Trump tied among registered voters a

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Speaker 1: different metric, forty eight to forty eight. Yeah, a real tie.

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Speaker 1: Last month, Harris was up by five in each of

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Speaker 1: those polls. Okay, CBS News, you go, Harris leads Trump

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Speaker 1: nationally likely voters. Here we go again, fifty one forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a one point tightening over the last month.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen Donald Trump more specifically, chip away at

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris's margins and overall Democratic Party margins among black

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Speaker 1: voters and among the voters. So that's the baseline as

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Speaker 1: we wait to spend some time with Rick Davis and

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Speaker 1: Genie Shanzo Kamala Harris coming out over the weekend with

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Speaker 1: three weeks to go, not so much on an issue,

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Speaker 1: but questions about Donald Trump. Framing him is dangerous and

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Speaker 1: while we're at it, unhealthy. Here's Kamala Harris from the stump.

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Speaker 10: He refuses to release his medical records.

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Speaker 8: I've done it.

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Speaker 9: Every other presidential camp, every other presidential candidate in modern

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Speaker 9: era has done it.

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Speaker 8: Here's the thing.

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Speaker 11: It makes you wonder. It makes you wonder. Why does

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Speaker 11: his staff want him to hide away?

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Speaker 8: One must question? One must question.

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Speaker 12: Are they afraid that people will see that he.

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Speaker 3: Is too weak and unstable.

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Speaker 13: To leave?

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Speaker 1: Okay, crowd loved it, but does this new line of

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Speaker 1: attack resonate around the country? Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo

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Speaker 1: join us right now our signature panel on the Monday edition.

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Speaker 1: She is, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor and political science

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Speaker 1: professor at Iona University. Rick Davis partner at Stone Court Capital.

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Speaker 1: Great to see you both here. Genie. I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is not going to be putting his medical

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Speaker 1: records out there. Aside from the letter that says he's

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Speaker 1: like the healthiest man in the universe. My question is,

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Speaker 1: does anyone care. Does that not sound like a race

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Speaker 1: from a few cycles ago? Does anyone care about medical records,

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Speaker 1: tax returns, etc? As long as Donald Trump is who

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Speaker 1: we're talking about, You know, I do.

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Speaker 8: Think people care to this extent. He is the oldest.

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Speaker 9: Person running in history, and of course we don't know

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Speaker 9: what his health is, and that's an enormous risk for

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Speaker 9: all of us. I am a strong proponent by the

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Speaker 9: way of releasing both health antax returns. Although I agree

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Speaker 9: with you it's not going to happen, but I do

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Speaker 9: think voters need to be reminded. I'm glad she's out

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Speaker 9: there asking these kinds of questions. I think it is

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Speaker 9: where she should be. But I don't think it is

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Speaker 9: enough to stop there, because it's certainly not the most

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Speaker 9: important issue on people's minds.

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Speaker 1: Well Speaker Johnson had an answer to this challenge from

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. He hit the Sunday Show circuit to make

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Speaker 1: it clear that Donald Trump is different than the rest

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Speaker 1: of us.

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Speaker 5: Should Donald Trump release all of his metal record.

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Speaker 13: He has, he issued the records of his physicians. Kamala

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Speaker 13: Harris issued her medical records as a diversion because she's desperate,

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Speaker 13: because she's sinking in the polls. Donald Trump's health is

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Speaker 13: on display. Everyone in America can see it. The man

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Speaker 13: works NonStop, he never quits. He probably sleeps four hours

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Speaker 13: a night. He doesn't require as much sleep as the

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Speaker 13: average person. He's an unusual figure.

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Speaker 1: Well, Genie, what do you think our medical records are diverse?

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Speaker 9: You know, I don't think it is a diversion. I

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Speaker 9: do think the issue of age plays Look at it

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Speaker 9: played big for Joe Biden. It got him out of

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Speaker 9: the race. But again, I don't think it's the only

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Speaker 9: issue on voter's mind. So it is a question she

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Speaker 9: should ask. It is a question that excites a democratic

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Speaker 9: rally crowd. But this is all about getting to those

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Speaker 9: undecided voters, people who may or may not vote, And

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Speaker 9: for those folks, it is all about the economy. And

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Speaker 9: so you know Bloomberg's forte that's where she's got to be.

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Speaker 9: What is she going to do for them different than

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Speaker 9: what has happened in that regard under the Biden administration

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Speaker 9: because they aren't quite happy with that. So again that's

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Speaker 9: where I think the closing message should be.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I appreciate that, Genie Rick, I'd love for you

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Speaker 1: to take a swing at this, because in the time

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Speaker 1: that you were running presidential campaigns, you wouldn't dare say

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Speaker 1: no to a challenge like that, right, this was part

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Speaker 1: of the process. But at your tax returns, put out

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Speaker 1: your medical records. Are we just beyond that now?

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Speaker 11: Yeah? I mean in two thousand, when John McCain first ran,

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Speaker 11: we literally got eight hundred pages of medical records from

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Speaker 11: his entire career in the Militarians and subsequent to that

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Speaker 11: and put him out for public view. Things have changed

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Speaker 11: a lot, but not that much. I mean, one of

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Speaker 11: the things that Trump campaign has to be very aware

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Speaker 11: of is there are people who haven't made up their

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Speaker 11: mind on him. It's a very personal decision to pick

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Speaker 11: a president. It is not like picking a senator or

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Speaker 11: a governor. You know, American voters like to feel like

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Speaker 11: they're part of that equation, that they've kicked the tires,

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Speaker 11: that they know the person. And so I do think

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Speaker 11: there could be potential value in the Harris campaign going

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Speaker 11: after Donald Trump. You know, his capacity to lead, his

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Speaker 11: capacity to function as president because of his age and

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Speaker 11: his health. And I think that even Johnson's comments raise

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Speaker 11: a specter like the guy's only getting you know, four

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Speaker 11: hours of sleep at night. I'm sorry, I want my

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Speaker 11: president to get eight hours to sleep at night. I

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Speaker 11: don't think that's such a good thing. And so and

439
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 11: then when you see him on the stump, which is why,

440
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 11: you know, the Harris campaign says, watch his rallies, he's

441
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 11: not very functional on the stump. So the reality is,

442
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 11: I do think this is a line that she's going

443
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 11: to pursue because she saw it work very effectively against

444
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 11: her boss, President Biden, and she wants employ some of

445
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 11: that concern that voters might have. And I think the

446
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 11: punch line at the end is, and do you really want,

447
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 11: you know, jd Vance as your president? Because of the

448
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 11: infirmity that exists, The potential exists for Donald Trump.

449
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 1: But of course people have never looked at him that way,

450
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: not the way they looked at Joe Biden. Genius Kamala

451
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,919
Speaker 1: Harris going to have to work overtime to make Donald

452
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 1: Trump look older than he appears on the stump because

453
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: the you know, the stem Winders, the Hannibal Electers, the

454
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: sharks and electric votes and all that stuff don't seem

455
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 1: to be moving anybody in that direction.

456
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, he comes across in a much different

457
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 9: way than Joe Biden. But if you actually listen to him,

458
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 9: if you pay attention, which is why they keep telling everybody,

459
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 9: go watch the rallies, you can see that he has

460
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 9: aged as we all have since twenty sixteen. And he

461
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,719
Speaker 9: is the oldest person to run myself, and and you

462
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 9: know he's the oldest person to run.

463
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 8: He would be very.

464
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 9: Old if he got into office by way of presidential

465
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 9: old and this is something Americans told us very clearly

466
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 9: they're not comfortable with. So I do think it is

467
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 9: something she needs to talk about and keep talking about.

468
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 8: But for those undecided.

469
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:38,479
Speaker 9: Voters, it's got to be more about them than Donald Trump.

470
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 9: And this is where I think she's got some work

471
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 9: to do. What are they going to risk if they

472
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 9: choose Donald Trump? Are they going to risk their healthcare,

473
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 9: their freedoms, their jobs, the economy, are they going to

474
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 9: get more taxes? You know, all of those things. She's

475
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 9: got to talk to those undecided voters in a way

476
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 9: that matters to them, not in a way that is

477
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 9: solely about Trump's age. Although again I think it's an

478
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 9: important line of attack, but it can't be the only one.

479
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 1: In that event in North Carolina where Kamala Harris was

480
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 1: talking where we just showed that bit of video and

481
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: heard that sound from They will begin early voting on Thursday.

482
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: We spoke earlier this hour with Mike Shephard about the

483
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: confusion and the misinformation surrounding Hurricane Helene that has really

484
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 1: hampered some efforts in the western part of the state.

485
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: But knowing that this is happening now, Kamala Harris said,

486
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,959
Speaker 1: the election is here. I keep reminding everybody out we're

487
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 1: twenty two days out, but the election is here. To

488
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 1: what extent do you recalibrate your messaging knowing that people

489
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: are voting while you're talking.

490
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 11: Look, I mean it's typical in every election, But I

491
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 11: would say we are now into the third week before

492
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 11: the election, and this is closing arguments. The third week

493
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 11: is different than the fourth week, and so it's a

494
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 11: sprint now to election day. And as you describe North

495
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 11: Carolina voters are voting today, as are a dozen other states,

496
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 11: and so you're in the election, and so if these

497
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 11: aren't the closing arguments, then then you're not going to

498
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 11: be making any at this stage. And I do think

499
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 11: you know what she's doing in North Carolina is drawing

500
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 11: attention to a population that has been distracted by their

501
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 11: own concerns and troubles due to the hurricane, and trying

502
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 11: to get them to reset into the focus of this election.

503
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 11: And notice the location she is going to be hitting

504
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 11: suburban and urban locations on the coast, staying away from

505
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 11: the affected areas and trying to drive up the vote.

506
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 11: They are knowing that it could be difficult out in

507
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 11: western North Carolina to actually you know, vote in any

508
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 11: way by being in person or by mail. So she's

509
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 11: got to go where she can pick up the votes

510
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 11: the best, the easiest way, and that's going to be

511
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 11: in those urban and coastal communities.

512
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: As we mentioned today, it's on the Erie, Pennsylvania. We'll

513
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: be making a stop at a small business to talk with

514
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: black men, and we'll hold a rally tonight heading for Detroit. Later.

515
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: Trump is in Oaks, Pennsylvania, So we really are zeroing

516
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: in on these targeted states here, Genie, We're going to

517
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: talk next hour about the constituencies that Kamala Harris is

518
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: working overtime to appeal to. As I just mentioned, young

519
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 1: black men, and it's going to be also young Latino men.

520
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: As well, showing a real deficit in the polls to

521
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: where she was just a month ago. But with what

522
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 1: I just heard from Rick Davis, we've got three weeks

523
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,479
Speaker 1: to go here. This is closing argument time. Is there

524
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: a time left to cater your message to specific demographics

525
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: at this point.

526
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 3: She has to.

527
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 9: You know, what we're seeing is when you look at

528
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 9: black voters, and we saw this in the IPSOS poll,

529
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 9: they are back in her corner in a way they

530
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 9: weren't with Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race.

531
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 9: But she is still not up to the point where

532
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 9: Joe Biden was the ninety percent he got in twenty twenty.

533
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 9: And that's where she needs to be. You know, you

534
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 9: could we could talk a lot about how she should

535
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 9: be on closing arguments now, but the reality is she

536
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 9: needs to do both. She needs to reach those targeted

537
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 9: voters and she needs to do closing arguments. She just

538
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 9: doesn't have the luxury of sitting back. She's got to

539
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 9: be aggressive as she goes forward, and quite frankly, she's

540
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 9: got to take a something of a page from Donald

541
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 9: Trump's book, and she's got to be aggressive, and she's

542
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 9: got to scare people straight, scare them in her mind

543
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 9: into seeing what the reality of their lives in a

544
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 9: Trump two point zero might be and why they should

545
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 9: not risk it. That's what she's going to have to do.

546
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 9: And we heard, you know, Barack Obama and the Stump

547
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 9: trying to make the case. He got some pushback on that.

548
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 9: But one of the big questions he asked as it

549
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 9: pertains to North Carolina, which is a question she would ask,

550
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 9: when did it become okay?

551
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 8: When did it become okay to lie to people in need?

552
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 9: Those are the questions that she needs to ask because

553
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 9: that should get people angry, hopefully on her part, to

554
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 9: go out and vote for her.

555
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are signature panel here on

556
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 1: the Monday edition of Balance of Powers.

557
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

558
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play

559
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: and then roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app listener

560
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

561
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

562
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: I'm Joel Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington as we

563
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: keep our eyes on the campaign trail. Of course, whenever

564
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: this does culminate it's going to be a big deal

565
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 1: for the presidential race, Kaylee. In the meantime, we are

566
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: walking through a new pile of polling data really over

567
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 1: the weekend, and new messaging from both campaigns. Kamala Harris

568
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: calling for Donald Trump's medical records, suggesting that he's dangerous

569
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: and apparently unhealthy, and Donald Trump pretty interesting talking about

570
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: the enemy within. Did you see these remarks over the weekend.

571
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 10: I did on Fox Business with Maria Barbiromo, talking about

572
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 10: the kind of activity we could see around this election

573
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 10: when everyone, of course living with the memory of January sixth,

574
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 10: twenty twenty one, including our next guest. Of course, it

575
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 10: was interesting to hear him characterize the threat not necessarily

576
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 10: coming from his own supporters, but those who may be

577
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 10: in opposition to him.

578
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, this was from Fox over the weekend.

579
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 7: Let's listen.

580
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 14: I think the bigger problem with the people from within.

581
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 14: We have some very bad people. We have some sick people,

582
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 14: radical left lunatics, and I think they're the and it

583
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 14: should be very easily handled by if necessary, by national

584
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 14: God or if really necessary, by the military.

585
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: We have two enemies.

586
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 15: We have the outside enemy and then we have the

587
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 15: enemy from within and the enemy from within, in my opinion,

588
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 15: is more dangers in China, Russia and all these countries,

589
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 15: because if you have a smart president, he can handle

590
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 15: them pretty easily.

591
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: Okay, that's where we start our conversation with Denver Riggleman,

592
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: the former Republican congressman from Virginia former Air Force intelligence

593
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: is with us here, remembering as well, he's founder of

594
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: RIG Security also helps to advise the January sixth Committee. Denver,

595
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: welcome back. It's been a while. We have two enemies.

596
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: How do you see it?

597
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 16: Well, you know, it's so funny. I think every accusation

598
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 16: is a confession when it comes to Donald Trump. And

599
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 16: since I do know a little bit about January sixth,

600
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 16: and thank you not on the Select Committee. When he's

601
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 16: talking about this dehumanization on the other side and talking

602
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 16: about you know, the evil and the enemy within and

603
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 16: the election and things like that, he really is staging again.

604
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 16: And it's not really that subtle anymore, this call for

605
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 16: violence among his individuals.

606
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 7: I mean, it's that simple.

607
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 16: I don't think I think people are afraid to address

608
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 16: what he's really saying. On so many levels, you're not

609
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 16: going to hear Kamala Harris saying this or till walls,

610
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 16: you will hear crazy coming from Donald Trump and from

611
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 16: Jade Vance. And I think what you're seeing there is

612
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 16: him actually reaching out the constituency again, just like with

613
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 16: the Proud Boys, just like with the oath Keepers, just

614
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 16: like with these individuals. When he said, you know, stand

615
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 16: back and stand by. This is the same kind of

616
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 16: messaging that he likes to do. And surely not that

617
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 16: subtle anymore.

618
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 10: Well, if it's not that subtle, as you see it, Denver,

619
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 10: it does raise the question of whether the electorate actually

620
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 10: takes him at his word when he says those things.

621
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 10: What would you say to people who suggest Donald Trump

622
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 10: is just not being serious, it's all just bluster.

623
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 16: First of all, you know a great question. Those people

624
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 16: are lying. I mean, of course they tick him as worthy,

625
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 16: wouldn't be voting for him. And it's that simple too.

626
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 16: And you know, here's the reason you no, I'm part

627
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 16: of Republicans for Harrison. There's a reason that we're reaching

628
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 16: out to specific constituencies is because we are going against

629
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 16: other constituencies, you know, and you know some of those

630
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 16: constituencies are like flat earthers, you know, those who believe

631
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 16: that J six, you know, the election was stolen, those

632
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,479
Speaker 16: who believe that there's a that FEMA, you know, is

633
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 16: there's actually conspiracy theories about FEMA around Hurricane Helene or

634
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 16: Hurricane Milton, those idiots, right, and you're talking about too.

635
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 16: You know, I don't know if you guys sawidated Tim

636
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 16: Wallace emails where you know, they're accusing of the most

637
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,479
Speaker 16: vile things with made up emails that's coming out today,

638
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 16: and I think that's what you're seeing. You have these

639
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 16: disinformation constituencies and these radicalized constituencies, and then you have

640
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 16: other people trying to reach out to a more sane

641
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 16: and rational portion of the population.

642
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: It's interesting what happens when people lose trust in the

643
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: arbiters of truth, right, whether it's the media, whether it's

644
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: the administration, the government as a whole here Denvers. So

645
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: it's it's difficult to get a sense of where we're

646
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: going with all this. There are reports the Washington Posts

647
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: that our militias are moving around western North Carolina trying

648
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: to block FEMA from getting to certain places following Hurricane Helene.

649
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: So it's hard to tell where the miss information ends.

650
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: But you know what your Republicans say, when it comes

651
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump, you can talk to me all day long.

652
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: You remember the outrage following the Access Hollywood tape, but

653
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: we moved on and the Donald Trump who was in

654
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: the White House brought a good economy and no new wars.

655
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: How do you respond to that?

656
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 16: Oh goodness, you know, that's that's pretty interesting. You know

657
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 16: they talked about the Access Hollywood tape and that he

658
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 16: just talks, right, He just talks a game, but he

659
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 16: doesn't really mean it. Well, I think Eugene Carroll would

660
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 16: have Yeah, I think she would have an issue with that.

661
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 16: He did exactly what he said he was going to

662
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 16: do because he was found liable for sexual abuse and

663
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 16: he's a felon. When you talk about January sixth, and

664
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 16: you know, be there, it's going to be wild. Look

665
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 16: at what he did to actually aggravate those type of

666
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 16: conspiracy theories and those radicalizing types of memes that he

667
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 16: put out there. And you just talked about FEMA, right

668
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 16: armed groups or militias. He was part of fanning the

669
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 16: flame there. Donald Trump is a conspiracy theorist or he

670
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 16: likes to radicalize people when he knows it's untrue and

671
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 16: both of those options are just awful for somebody who

672
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 16: wants to be potused. So you know, again it comes

673
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,719
Speaker 16: down to I think this is about going against that

674
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 16: type of disinformation on a level we have never seen.

675
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 16: Social media is allowed it, but I just don't think Democrats, independence,

676
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 16: and even the center right realize how strong the far

677
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 16: right information ecosystem is.

678
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 10: So with all that said, Denver, we're now just three

679
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 10: weeks out from election day. What are you potentially looking

680
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 10: for or bracing for on that day and in the

681
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 10: days that could follow, Knowing it maybe uncertain for some

682
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 10: time who actually won the election and whether or not

683
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 10: they're going to accept those results.

684
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 16: Listen that here's my greatest hope. I mean, and I'm

685
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 16: glad you're asking me such easy questions today. Thanks guys.

686
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 16: Holy crap, well just so easy.

687
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 1: Just a balk of the park today.

688
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 7: Here's my hope.

689
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 16: I hope that that anybody in the left, center or center,

690
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 16: you know, independence, when this election is called one way

691
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 16: or the other, you know, they follow the norms of

692
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 16: the United States Constitution and we allow for the peaceful

693
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 16: transfer of power. The issue that you're going to have

694
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 16: if Donald Trump wins or Donald Trump loses, is you're

695
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,959
Speaker 16: going to have a far right activated, I think type

696
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 16: of violence centers. But it's not going to be at

697
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 16: the capitol. What my biggest worry is counting centers. It's

698
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 16: election workers, it's state capitals, it's specific individuals now right,

699
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 16: it's actually going towards the very infrastructure of how the

700
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 16: electoral votes are funneled upwards towards Congress. Those are the

701
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 16: things that I worry about. Is this local, state and

702
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 16: county level efforts that are going on in these areas,

703
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 16: and these rises of militia movements, this rise of sort

704
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 16: of this fantasy belief system that's driving people. You know,

705
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 16: I was just looking at the Rod of Iron ministries

706
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 16: with Mike Flynn, you know, and they have the Babylon

707
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 16: Fire and they're screaming fight, fight, fight, And that's all

708
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 16: under Sean Moon, the son of Shung Moon, who thinks

709
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 16: the AR fifteen is an instrument of God. That's the

710
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 16: issue that we have right now, is that violence is

711
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,439
Speaker 16: in the air. It's being perpetuated. Just at the start

712
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 16: of this talking about Donald Trump's common about the election,

713
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 16: He's not being subtle and he means it. And I

714
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 16: think when we look at what he said in the

715
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 16: past and what he's been convicted of as a felon

716
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 16: and as being liable for sexual abuse, I think we

717
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 16: see that he means what he says.

718
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: So with that said, though, I just want to get

719
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: a little more specific with your knowledge of January sixth,

720
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: having advised the committee on this, are you of the

721
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: mind then that we could see violence break out in

722
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: state capitals around the country as opposed to here in Washington,

723
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:29,720
Speaker 1: And why would it be different this time?

724
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 16: I think the issue that you're going to have in

725
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 16: state capitals and when you're talking about specific counting centers,

726
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 16: is that you have a very narrow pathway to victory

727
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 16: for both candidate. You're talking about only a handful of states,

728
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 16: and you're talking about counties within those states.

729
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 1: And if you don't think that those.

730
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 16: Who are looking at the numbers, at the data, at

731
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 16: the polls, at the statistics, they're looking at the voter

732
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 16: registrations and the early voting in those areas, if they're

733
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 16: not concentrating on those areas with legal challenges immediately, or

734
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 16: an army of lawyers looking at every single aspect of this,

735
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 16: I think people's heads are in the sand. If they

736
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 16: don't believe that. And I think when you talk about

737
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 16: what's different this time is there's been a massive learning

738
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 16: curve from January sixth to today. Now you're talking about,

739
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 16: you know, you know, really a coordinated effort, but there

740
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 16: was just enough dumb people right where that wasn't going

741
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 16: to go off. But I think this time, I think

742
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 16: they've learned that fighting from the inside is much more

743
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 16: effective from fighting from the outside. And that's why you

744
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 16: saw all these electoral type of issues going on, where

745
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 16: you're seeing Moms for Liberty and these other groups trying

746
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 16: to put candidates in these positions where they can actually

747
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 16: affect the voting in those local areas. And I think

748
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 16: that's what we need to worry about, is they've really

749
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 16: really have a more specific plan this time going forward.

750
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 10: Denver, we just have a minute left. But Joe and

751
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 10: I have been talking about how there seems to be

752
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 10: a different feeling this morning about the race and the

753
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 10: likelihood that Donald Trump could win. Do you share that feeling?

754
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 7: I do.

755
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 16: I mean, I think I think the disinformation program has

756
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 16: been very effective. I think I think this election was

757
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 16: all always going to be close, and I think there

758
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 16: has to come a time where you have to push

759
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 16: on a level with reality and sanity, but you really

760
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 16: have to get away from compassionate confrontation to just telling

761
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 16: the truth about how awful and evil some of the

762
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 16: things that are being set out there on the disinformation side.

763
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 16: I do feel a switch. It's a little eerie, but

764
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 16: that's why we're fighting, and that's why I think that

765
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 16: we need to lean forward and do the best that

766
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 16: we can to make sure sanity and reality win.

767
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 10: All Right. Former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman, thank you so

768
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 10: much for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio platform.

769
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

770
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

771
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 2: Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

772
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

773
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

774
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 1: Agar Shamali joins us right now for more on the

775
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: Middle East. Hagar, it's great to have you back here,

776
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 1: of course, former director for Syria and left at the

777
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:04,439
Speaker 1: National Security Council. Now Greenwich Media strategies we've been talking

778
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 1: are about this new THAD missile defense system that the

779
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 1: US has greenlit for use in Israel. It's going to

780
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 1: bring about one hundred American troops along with it. They're

781
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 1: needed to operate the system here and maybe train Israeli's

782
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: while they're at it. At this phase, what does it

783
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 1: tell you the motivation behind this deployment as a deterrent

784
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: or an acknowledgment that Israel is about to go big.

785
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 12: Well, perhaps a little bit of both, but it's not

786
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 12: totally unprecedented to move this kind of missile defense system

787
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 12: to Israel. The US moved the THAD missile defense system

788
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 12: to Israel after the October seven attack last year, and

789
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 12: so it is something that is meant to beef up

790
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 12: that that security to definitely send a message across to

791
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 12: all or across the Middle East that the US is

792
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 12: going to defend Israel, is going to stand and support Israel,

793
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 12: you know, in case of any kind of attack. But

794
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:01,879
Speaker 12: it certainly indicates that there is they are expecting.

795
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 3: Something and they want to be there just in case.

796
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 12: The US also has said that they know that Israel

797
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,320
Speaker 12: has narrowed down its targets in Iran in response to

798
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 12: Iran's assault, so they clearly have an idea of what

799
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 12: generally what of what Israel's considering. We know that Israel

800
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 12: hasn't come to a definitive agreement yet or decision as

801
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,760
Speaker 12: to exactly what it's targeting in Iran. It does seem

802
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 12: as days go by that it's going it's less and

803
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 12: less likely to be the nuclear facilities.

804
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 3: But it's still possible.

805
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 12: It could always be oil fields, which obviously is going

806
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 12: to lead to that uncertainty in the markets that you mentioned.

807
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 12: But Israel also is aware of You know that targeting

808
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 12: oil fields not only has an economic consequence, but an

809
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 12: environmental one as well, And so I, in my opinion,

810
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 12: I think we're looking more at Iran's military infrastructure, their

811
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 12: weapons depots and things of this kind. Possibly certain leadership,

812
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 12: but this is this is where I see things headed

813
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 12: in general.

814
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 3: But again, Prime Minister Natiyah.

815
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 12: Who is feeling very bold, has been taking many risks

816
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,760
Speaker 12: in many gambles, and that is yet enough reason why

817
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 12: the US likely is deploying that missile defense system, both

818
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 12: to defend and as a deterrent, but also because they

819
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 12: might expect some kind of response.

820
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 10: Well, Hagar, as you describe, Netanyahu was feeling bold right now.

821
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 10: He also his government has been kind of taking their

822
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 10: time with this. We've been left on edge waiting for

823
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,320
Speaker 10: that response for some time now. The longer it takes,

824
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 10: is it likelier that a cooler head prevails, if you will,

825
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 10: or just that it is a very specific, targeted kind

826
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,919
Speaker 10: of response. I just wonder how the timeline factors in here.

827
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 12: The timing is kind of part of the game, if

828
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 12: you will. And I'm not trying to sound trite in

829
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 12: this or make light of it, but the Iranians were

830
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,439
Speaker 12: very similar as well. I mean, and then they said

831
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 12: that back back, this was a few months ago when

832
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 12: they had their response. I'm sorry when when Ismael Hainia

833
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 12: was assassinated in Iran, Iran said we're going to respond.

834
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 3: And the waiting is part of the game.

835
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 12: Is part of the effort to make everybody on unease

836
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 12: and and to make them feel nervous and anxious and

837
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 12: to await the suspense is.

838
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 3: Part of it, and so Israel in this part. It

839
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:08,320
Speaker 3: could be part of the game for Israel.

840
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 12: But I think also the Israeli government is thinking, you know,

841
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 12: it's taking their time with their decision and trying to

842
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 12: be smart about it and responsible about it, and well responsible,

843
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 12: but I mean responsible for what they feel is there

844
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 12: is what achieves their national security objectives, even if the

845
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 12: US disagrees with that, and the Israeli government who the

846
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 12: war has shifted and so they have a different playing

847
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 12: ground here to play with, and that's that they are

848
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 12: much more heavily engaged in Lebanon than we all anticipated

849
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 12: a month ago only, and so they have to be

850
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 12: aware of that that they're more heavily engaged in Lebanon.

851
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 12: They've promised for further escalation in Lebanon, they've pursued a

852
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:47,280
Speaker 12: ground invasion, which calls for a whole different level of commitment.

853
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 3: Gaza is still ongoing.

854
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 12: Every time they withdraw from parts of Gaza, Hamas pops

855
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 12: back up. Hamas is significantly diminished, but again they are

856
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,879
Speaker 12: still popping up in these areas, so you still see

857
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 12: them engaged there, and so I believe they're really taking

858
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 12: their time, that they do care about the US perspective

859
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 12: and guidance. But again, and I've said this before, as

860
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 12: you know, if there's a disagreement and we disagree all

861
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 12: the time, the Israeli government, Natanyahu administration is certainly going

862
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 12: to do what it feels as best for its survival.

863
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 3: But I don't believe that they.

864
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 12: Want to launch a full a full scale regional war.

865
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 12: One could argue we're still in that at the moment,

866
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 12: but a direct engagement with Iran.

867
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 1: With that said, Hagar, how does Benjamin Netanyaho view the

868
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: next three weeks in American politics, with the inflection point

869
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: being our election on November fifth, Well, I.

870
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 12: Want to I want to start off by saying that

871
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 12: I believe the Bide administration has been very supportive of

872
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 12: the Israeli government. And that said, I believe that nata

873
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 12: Yah who doesn't feel that way or doesn't feel enough

874
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 12: love because Natanya who has said that before and he

875
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,280
Speaker 12: and has been quite public about that. And that said,

876
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 12: from his point of view, from the Israeli government point

877
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 12: of view, Netta Ya, who is waiting with Beta breath

878
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:02,760
Speaker 12: to see what happens, because it will have an effect.

879
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 3: Especially if you're.

880
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 12: Talking about Trump versus Harris administration, there are going to

881
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 12: be significant differences in their support of Israel.

882
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 3: Both are going to support Israel. Both are going to

883
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 3: be committed to Israel's defense.

884
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 12: Israel's a non NATO ally of the United States and

885
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 12: the US, through our laws, have pledged to maintain Israel's

886
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 12: qualitative military edge, which means therefore it's superiority over anything

887
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 12: military in the region. But that said, I think a

888
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 12: Harris administration is going to try and twist Israel's arm more,

889
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 12: is going to play more with the idea of conditioning AID,

890
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 12: is going to be more loud and have a stronger

891
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 12: tone about civilians being killed, whereas the Trump administration, I think,

892
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 12: is going to say, you know, I'll give you what

893
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 12: you need to wrap this up, but wrap it up.

894
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 12: And that is what Trump has said over and over again.

895
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 12: So Natiyau is watching very carefully. I don't think that's

896
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 12: holding him back. I don't think that's what is contributing

897
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,919
Speaker 12: to this time that you're seeing this delay. But that said,

898
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 12: he is watching very closely. He's trying to play both

899
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 12: sides very closely. He knows that he's going to have

900
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 12: to maintain f and ships on both sides depending who wins.

901
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 12: And as you mentioned earlier, no one has been able

902
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 12: to predict this. Don't ask me, I don't want to

903
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 12: predict it because none of us.

904
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 11: Know, Hagar.

905
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 10: In our final moment with you here, we also learned

906
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 10: over the weekend that Hesbela drones did kill four Israeli

907
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 10: soldiers despite all of Israel's efforts to take out Hesbela capability,

908
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 10: hence the incursions into southern Lebanon, which we're now more

909
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 10: than a thousand people have died. What does this reveal

910
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 10: about the capacity that Hesbela still has remaining despite all

911
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 10: of Israel's efforts.

912
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is an interesting one.

913
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 12: So on one hand, Habela has been weakened much more

914
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,400
Speaker 12: than any of us could have expected this far in

915
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:43,919
Speaker 12: by the way, I believe even the Israeli government didn't

916
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 12: expect Habella to be weakened the way it was if

917
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 12: they looked at this six months ago, for example. And

918
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 12: I can tell you I handled Hisbela when I worked

919
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:53,280
Speaker 12: in counter terres financing.

920
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 3: It was in my portfolio in the US government. Since

921
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: the two thousand and.

922
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 12: Six war, we have been waiting for the showdown between

923
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 12: Hasbela and Israelan has watched Habella arm itself so heavily

924
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 12: in the meantime, and they still have more in their arsenal.

925
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 12: They have significant precision missiles that when I was at

926
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 12: the White House, Syria was sending to them called scud missiles,

927
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 12: and so we know that Habela has this capability. So

928
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 12: on one hand, they've significantly diminished their capabilities and thrown

929
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 12: their operation into array because of how many leaders they've

930
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 12: killed and how many how they've penetrated their communication systems.

931
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 3: This really does a lot to undermine a terrorist group's operations.

932
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 12: And apparently what I've read is that they've targeted at

933
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 12: least half of their arsenal so far. That said, you

934
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 12: still have on thousands, tens of thousands, likely of fighters

935
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 12: Haasbela fighters, and a huge arsenal to begin with. So

936
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 12: even if you've cut off half, you still have a

937
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 12: big chunk remaining. So but I believe the Israeli government

938
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 12: is aware of that. I mean, they know, they know

939
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 12: what they're they're asking for by going in. They know

940
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 12: what it means to escalate with Isabella, that it may

941
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 12: go in phases, and right now israel I think the

942
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 12: Israeli government is definitely the stronger one coming out of

943
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 12: this blate. It's going to be all right, it comes

944
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 12: to his mode.

945
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 10: Hugar Shamali. Always great to have you. Thank you for

946
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 10: joining us here. On balance of Power. In a programming

947
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 10: note noontime tomorrow an exclusive interview between former President Donald

948
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 10: Trump and Bloomberg Editor in chief John Mickelthwaite. You can

949
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 10: find that right here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

950
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

951
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

952
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,359
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953
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,680
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954
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,360
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