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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media, and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. With all of that, we are also now

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Speaker 3: going to turn to our friend Janda vid Rojas, who

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Speaker 3: joins us now to break down the potential future pathways

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Speaker 3: for Venezuela.

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Speaker 1: Good to see you want, thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 4: Happy to be here, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, So let's go and put your piece up here

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Speaker 3: on the screen. You write specifically about the multiple ways

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Speaker 3: that Trumps invade or I guess Rashi even regime. Jem

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Speaker 3: not sure if we can call it that Trump's military

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Speaker 3: police action. Let's call it that in Venezuela. You say

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Speaker 3: Venezuela's path to freedom. It is menaced by colonels, cartels,

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Speaker 3: and Trump want you lay out multiple different pathways that

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Speaker 3: all of us could go. Giving your expertise and your

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Speaker 3: long kind of analysis and knowledge of the region, why

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Speaker 3: don't you lay that out here for the audience. Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump has unleashed this current situation. There's a lot of chaos.

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Speaker 3: You write specifically, we could go the Panamanian model. We

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Speaker 3: could go the current model with where there's this negotiation

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Speaker 3: and oil deal struck with the remnants of the regime.

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Speaker 3: We could have full blown civil war and chaos. Where

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Speaker 3: do you see things as possible and which one do

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Speaker 3: you think is the most likely?

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Speaker 5: All right, I'm going to try to be as fair.

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Speaker 5: I try to be as fair as possible. And the

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Speaker 5: piece to like, you know, all it's a spectrum. There's

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Speaker 5: a wide range of scenarios. And to steal man the

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Speaker 5: neo con version, which is Panama, is that hey, look

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Speaker 5: like Venezuela. Latin America is not the Middle East. Venezuela

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Speaker 5: had a past history with democracy. Look at Panama. We

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Speaker 5: did the same thing in Panama, and Panama is like,

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Speaker 5: you know, I has flaws, but it's a vibrant democracy. Whatever.

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Speaker 5: They have peaceful art alternations of power. Venezuela had that

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Speaker 5: during the twenties most of the twentieth century.

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Speaker 6: All right, cool, there's I'm skeptical of that version.

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Speaker 5: Let's say, like, really, the only way that version could happen,

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Speaker 5: I think is if you know Dancy Rodriguez, who now

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Speaker 5: is was sworn in as president of Venezuela. She like

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Speaker 5: holds new elections, the opposition takes over, and by some miracle,

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Speaker 5: all the military backs for there's no defections. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I'm skeptical of this because if you look at Panama, actually,

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Speaker 5: like we puts boots on the ground for like several months,

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Speaker 5: and for several months there were loyalists that held out

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Speaker 5: in favor of Nordego, Like it is not actually that

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Speaker 5: much of a cakewalk as it's portrayed.

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Speaker 1: Twenty three Americans were killed.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly exactly.

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Speaker 5: And so you know Trump saying that, oh, if they

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Speaker 5: don't do what we want, we'll bomb them again. It's like, okay,

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Speaker 5: if they don't you really don't do everything you want,

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Speaker 5: then I guess they'll have to put like troops on

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Speaker 5: the ground occupy, as he said, which is extremely disturbing,

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Speaker 5: and no one here in the US wants, according to.

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Speaker 6: Poles, so I'm skeptical of that.

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Speaker 5: I'm also skeptical that if the opposition takes over, all

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Speaker 5: of the military have will back them, there will be holdouts. Worse,

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Speaker 5: the problem is, unlike Panama, there's a ton of sophisticated

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Speaker 5: armed groups in Venezuela, the eln the FARK, dissidents, DABU,

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Speaker 5: and you know, you say, like, oh, these are just

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Speaker 5: a few thousand gorillas, which is a lot, and they're

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Speaker 5: basically indestructible. You can weaken them, you can reduce their numbers,

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Speaker 5: you cannot eliminate them completely. I mean, they're from neighbor

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Speaker 5: of Colombia. They've been fighting an insurgency there for sixty years.

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Speaker 5: Colombia has an extremely sophisticated military and has not been

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Speaker 5: able to completely eliminate them.

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Speaker 6: And you can, you know.

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Speaker 5: Blame particular governments, people on the right, blame Petro for whatever. Anyway,

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Speaker 5: the reality is there's gonna be some sort of insurgency

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Speaker 5: and there's also like paramilitary pro government correctivos. So we

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Speaker 5: could see yeah, some sort of like civil wars scenario

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Speaker 5: and I've been thinking of the analogy a lot that

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Speaker 5: Venezuela and the regime specifically, it's kind of like like

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Speaker 5: a Jenga tower. And for the past ten years, like

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Speaker 5: you know, it's been wavering back and forth because Venezuela

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Speaker 5: is it's almost a failed state. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 5: this insane humanitarian crisis. Its economy is a fourth the

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Speaker 5: size of what it was ten years ago, as an

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Speaker 5: economy smaller than Ecuador. So if you just remove one piece,

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Speaker 5: the whole thing could collapse, and that would be the

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Speaker 5: worst case scenario. It would really be something like Libya,

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Speaker 5: where you have like multiple different governments, competing factions.

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Speaker 6: There's no like solid control over the country. And I

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Speaker 6: guess the third option, which seems less likely.

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Speaker 5: De Sirodrigez said yesterday that she's now going to cooperate

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Speaker 5: with the Trump administration, whatever that means. And they were

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Speaker 5: saying that, yeah, that they want to put in the opposition. Now,

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Speaker 5: who knows, maybe they could change their minds, but theoretically

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Speaker 5: they could just leave the regime in place, and maybe

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Speaker 5: this he is more cooperative with what they want than

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Speaker 5: just willing to hand over all the oil. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: I've seen a lot of headlines Bill Ackman and Bloomberg saying,

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Speaker 5: you know, oh would look at all how much we

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Speaker 5: can invest and revive Venezuela's oil industry.

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Speaker 2: Can you talk a little bit also about just the

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Speaker 2: I mean, Venezuela is a very different country than Panama,

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Speaker 2: and I think it was you that said to me,

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Speaker 2: you know, you could actually end up with sort of

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Speaker 2: a Vietnam situ. Maybe the Middle East isn't the right model.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's more of a Vietnam possibility that we could

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Speaker 2: be facing if we actually went through with this insanity

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Speaker 2: of troops on the ground and trying to fully occupy

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Speaker 2: and quote unquote run this country, which you rightly point

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Speaker 2: out is effectively a basket case at this point exactly.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I honestly I do think that the Middle

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Speaker 6: East could be out of what Iraq, Vietnam, all of

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Speaker 6: this stuff.

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Speaker 5: The point is like we could end up in an

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Speaker 5: a drawn out, prolonged occupation with like you know, terrorism

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Speaker 5: against our troops.

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Speaker 6: I mean, this is an idea.

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Speaker 5: The eln has like hijacked planes in Columbia, car bombings

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Speaker 5: that have killed you know, like dozens of people, laid

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Speaker 5: siege to rural towns in Colombia and Venezuela. And like

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Speaker 5: I said, I mean you, is this the same thing

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Speaker 5: as the insurgents al Qaeda isis you cannot eliminate them completely.

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Speaker 5: And you know we talked about how we destroyed ISIS.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they still exist, It's just not the same

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Speaker 5: as before. But either way, they still carry out attacks

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Speaker 5: against our troops. I mean, look at what happened just

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Speaker 5: happened recently in Syria. So this could go very very badly.

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Speaker 5: And if all of that happens, you know, this would

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Speaker 5: other destabilized the rest of South America. There's eight million

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Speaker 5: Venezuela and migrants that have already left the country, and

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Speaker 5: it'll end up affecting us. You know, this administration is

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Speaker 5: anti immigration. They wanted to pour now one hundred illegals,

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Speaker 5: but not even one hundred of legal It's just one

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Speaker 5: hundred deportations.

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Speaker 4: Whatever a million?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so what's a hundred hundred million?

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Speaker 7: My bt.

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Speaker 3: What's fascinating to me, jan is also the complete what

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Speaker 3: you know, originally the coalition that supported this oust of

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Speaker 3: Maduro was largely the camp that was pro let's call

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Speaker 3: it pro democracy, which you know democracy in quotes as

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Speaker 3: in pro Maria Machado. However, the Trump administration now making

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Speaker 3: it clear she's not even really an option for putting

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Speaker 3: this forward. This will put the administration now directly at

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Speaker 3: odds with previously some of the biggest backers of regime change.

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Speaker 3: In Venezuela, for example, we have a South Florida congressional

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Speaker 3: delegation here absolutely crashing out over Trump ruling out Marie Machado.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson.

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Speaker 6: Why are you not willing to support Maria to be Oh?

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Speaker 2: Why why?

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Speaker 7: Wait?

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Speaker 6: Wait wait, hold on, hold on, sir.

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Speaker 7: First, you're talking to us. When have we ever not supported?

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Speaker 4: No, no, no, no way.

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Speaker 6: But let's look, these are serious issues. Do not put

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Speaker 6: words in.

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Speaker 7: My mouth, and do not no no, no, wait, but

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Speaker 7: you set us, you set us, you set us.

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Speaker 3: Okay, but it's very I will not tolerate put in

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Speaker 3: words in my mouth or my college mouth.

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Speaker 2: We have been consistent from day one, and I am

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Speaker 2: convinced there's going to be a transition.

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Speaker 8: We already talked about that, and I'm convinced that when

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Speaker 8: there are elections, whether there are new elections or there's

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Speaker 8: a decision to take the old elections. The last elections that.

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Speaker 6: The next democratically elected president of Venezuela is going to

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Speaker 6: be Maria Coldia.

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Speaker 3: So there he's declaring that she is the next president

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Speaker 3: of Venezuela. That is not what the Trump administration is saying.

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Speaker 3: And this was the primary rhetorical backing of this action. However,

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Speaker 3: now as we move perhaps into some collaborationist Maduro remnant

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Speaker 3: regime military junta which will be extracting oil but will

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Speaker 3: also probably have to be deeply repressive if it were

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Speaker 3: to go through with this, how does that shape the dynamics,

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Speaker 3: let's say, of the South Florida community that you are

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Speaker 3: an expert on.

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Speaker 5: That's a good question because and there's a lot of

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Speaker 5: different ways that this could go. I've already seen it

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Speaker 5: kind of shape out. There's a camp that then and

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Speaker 5: this is even like the old school, like a rock

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Speaker 5: neocons that if then you know, we just prop up

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Speaker 5: like basically Maduro's regime without Maduro and extract or oil.

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Speaker 6: Oh, that's so horrible.

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Speaker 5: Look, we don't actually care about Venezuela's democracy.

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Speaker 6: Shocker.

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Speaker 5: So and then on the other hand, well, you know

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Speaker 5: there's people like uh, so you're like principally just impose

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Speaker 5: a posed just you know, violate other country sovereignties and

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Speaker 5: you know, extended occupations and with no plans that are

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Speaker 5: or that are completely incoherent, it's impossible to know. Like

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Speaker 5: you said, I mean, Trump, even Rubio now has like

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Speaker 5: poured water on Machado. Now, Trump said something that I

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Speaker 5: thought was interesting, that she doesn't have the respect or

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Speaker 5: support When he says that, I think he is. What

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Speaker 5: he means is the Venezuelan military. The Venezuela basically of

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Speaker 5: military dictatorship. The military is what matters, even more so

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Speaker 5: than in a normal country. And the reality is that

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Speaker 5: the military are terrified of her because she is completely insane.

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Speaker 6: She wants to privatize Pele, she asked.

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Speaker 5: She called on Nettanyahu to intervene in Venezuela to liberate

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Speaker 5: the country.

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Speaker 2: So anyway, yeah, and so I mean, as things proceed,

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Speaker 2: do you think it's possible that we hear more from

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Speaker 2: like the South Florida Congressional delegation, from some of the

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Speaker 2: opposition leaders, because it's possible that they end up actually

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Speaker 2: the big losers here.

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Speaker 4: You know, if you.

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Speaker 2: Really did have this deal with Delsi Rodriguez and she's

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Speaker 2: actually working with the Trump administration, and like you said,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Trump doesn't give a shit about elections, reading

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Speaker 2: fair elections and democracy and whatever, and so he's like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I got my girl, Like we're good to go. Let's

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Speaker 2: just keep this regime in place forever. They could actually

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Speaker 2: end up as the biggest losers in the whole situation.

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Speaker 6: Totally. Yeah. Again, it's hard to know.

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Speaker 5: Like dale See said yesterday that you know she's going

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Speaker 5: to cooperate, and Rubio's saying that you know, there's gonna

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Speaker 5: they're gonna hold new elections. I think even Trump said that.

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Speaker 5: Now you know, they could like switch on a dime.

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Speaker 5: I really don't know. The incoherence is the point. And

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Speaker 5: there's all these different competing camps within the administration.

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Speaker 6: Who knows what the all the discussions look like.

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Speaker 5: There's probably you know, one current that wants to do

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Speaker 5: full regime change, another one that does it. I'm not

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Speaker 5: really sure. It's yeah, it's it's really uncertain and uh troubling.

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Speaker 5: I mean there the plan is has holes in it.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of the threats against Cuba and

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Speaker 2: Colombia and Mexico as well?

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Speaker 6: Well?

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Speaker 5: I mean, look like again this has to be said.

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Speaker 5: This is one of the most atrocious violations of like,

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Speaker 5: you know, another country sovereignty we've ever seen. And yes,

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Speaker 5: like Maduro is horrendous, horrendous, horrendous. He's one of the

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Speaker 5: worst dictators that Latin America has ever seen. There's a

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Speaker 5: reason why people all over the region, Hayden, that's it.

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Speaker 6: You're setting up a precedent that any leader can be kidnapped,

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Speaker 6: your country bombed for any reason. Because the pretext for

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Speaker 6: all this is completely insane. The amount of drugs that

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Speaker 6: come to the US through Venezuela is extremely small, ordering

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Speaker 6: to the DEA itself. Oh yeah, that's the other thing.

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Speaker 6: We want to literally steeled their oil. No fentanyl is

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Speaker 6: produced in Venezuela. And so I mean, you know he's

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Speaker 6: talking now about Mexico, Cuba, Colombia.

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Speaker 5: Where does this end? How is this going to go?

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Speaker 5: Or are we just going to start deposing kidnapping more leaders.

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Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, he's already started to get involved in

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Speaker 5: all of these elections, supporting with this or other candidate.

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Speaker 5: And don't even get to be started on you know,

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Speaker 5: anti interventionists like Matt Walsh's pathetic is just saying, oh,

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Speaker 5: might mix, right, and it's good to have vassals.

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Speaker 6: We should just occupy the whole hemisphere. I guess that's

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Speaker 6: America first.

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Speaker 3: My kind of final question here one is we didn't

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Speaker 3: know it at the time, but Libya, for example, set

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Speaker 3: the stage for the endurance of the Kim Jong un regime.

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Speaker 3: They said, that's it, We're just going full blown ICBM

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Speaker 3: with nukes. What do you think and foresee, let's say,

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Speaker 3: on the continent, for the security situation, for how South

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Speaker 3: America Central American leaders will be handling as you have

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Speaker 3: the Malay camp, you have the new Chilean the Hondurans

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Speaker 3: for example, who are like, okay, we just need to

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Speaker 3: be protected, let's say by the Trump umbrella. But what

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Speaker 3: will some of the more oppositional regimes take away from this?

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Speaker 3: Will they nuclear eze? I mean, will they make better

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Speaker 3: deals with Russia, with China? How are they going to

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Speaker 3: be thinking about their security situation going forward?

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Speaker 5: That's a really good point, you know, a few months ago,

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Speaker 5: and I've been saying this for a while now, I

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Speaker 5: think a lot of countries in Latin America, the big ones,

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Speaker 5: especially Brazil and Mexico, need nukes to protect themselves. From

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Speaker 5: the US now brands, and I guess if they tried

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Speaker 5: to develop them, then we could have an Iran situation

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Speaker 5: where we invade them to stop them from getting a nukes.

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Speaker 5: But Lula's energy minister actually said a few months ago

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Speaker 5: that exactly that Brazil needs nukes, and some of these

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Speaker 5: countries at one point, we're developing them. Funnily enough, under

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Speaker 5: like a US line. James Brazil's military dictatorship in like

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Speaker 5: the seventies and eighties started to work on like a weapon,

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Speaker 5: a nuclear weapons program. Argentina had one, to Mexico has

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Speaker 5: never had one, but that possibility is there. And more broadly,

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Speaker 5: I mean, who knows how this will play out. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: it's it's hard to say with a lot of these

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Speaker 5: different elections. And as far as like on the Latin

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Speaker 5: American right, I mean, look, I'm very respectful of like

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Speaker 5: the reasons why people vote for different leaders, but I'm

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Speaker 5: also going to be honest, like a lot of the

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Speaker 5: last right wing leaders, they're basically pawns of the of

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Speaker 5: the US. They'll just support whatever Trump or the US does.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, there's a lot of internal dynamics. Alternatively, like

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Speaker 5: on the left, like yeah, you have leftist democratic leaders,

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Speaker 5: a lot of which were critical of Madruro. And that's

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Speaker 5: another thing, like that's right, when you just like celebrate

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Speaker 5: this guy like stealing elections and like killing protesters who

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Speaker 5: to protest stealing elections, it makes you kind of unviable.

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Speaker 5: Like there's a reason why there's not that many leftists

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Speaker 5: to like openly support Maduro in the region.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he was now like the younger pointing this out

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Speaker 3: to me. It's like, yeah, he can criticize us coming

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Speaker 3: in for oil. He wanted to invade other countries to

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Speaker 3: steal oil.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, he literally wanted to invade guy in it and

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Speaker 6: steal his oil. He's a lot like Trump in that sense.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, you could you could have this is gonna

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Speaker 5: shock and some people are gonna come out of their

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Speaker 5: seats coming out of this. You could talk about Venezuelan

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Speaker 5: imperialism anyway.

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Speaker 1: Greater Bolivarian Empire.

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Speaker 2: Well, exactly, the big personality also matches. I mean, if

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Speaker 2: they actually go to trial here in New York, that

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Speaker 2: is going to be a wild spectacle to exactly.

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Speaker 5: His track dude has already sold out. He is extremely funny.

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Speaker 5: He's like telling like his prison guards happy New Year.

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Speaker 5: And all this stuff. His charisma, but people say that

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Speaker 5: like he lacks the charisma of chov Is. I honestly,

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Speaker 5: I think he has more charisma than job And the

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Speaker 5: problem is the country went to hell under him. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: but anyway, Yeah, this guy has been such a drag

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Speaker 5: on the Latin American left. So I mean alternatively, you know,

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Speaker 5: maybe like in Columbia and Brazil, like Trump's actions will

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Speaker 5: help these guys, will We'll see. Hard to say, but

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Speaker 5: I don't know, you know, yeah, I think you're presidents.

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Speaker 6: For all this is are terrible. We'll see what happens.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well, thank you very much, Mon, We always

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Speaker 3: appreciate you. We'll see you later.

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Speaker 6: Thanks, says.

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Speaker 3: With all of that analysis, we now turn to perhaps

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Speaker 3: the future and the real motivation behind all of this,

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Speaker 3: which is oil. Let's go and put this up here

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Speaker 3: on the screen from the Wall Street Journal.

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Speaker 1: We've got the.

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Speaker 3: Finance industry already circling the drain in Venezuela, looking with

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Speaker 3: bright eyes at the oil reserves. Let me read here

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Speaker 3: from the Wall Street Journal. Some on Wall Street already

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Speaker 3: considering the possible investment opportunities following the capture of Maduro.

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Speaker 3: One investment investor Charles Myers said in an interview he's

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Speaker 3: planning a trip with officials from top hedge funds and

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Speaker 3: asset managers to determine whether their investment prospects in the

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Speaker 3: country under new leadership. Will feature some twenty officials finance, energy,

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Speaker 3: defense sectors. The tentative plan is for the group to

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Speaker 3: travel in marched meet with the new government and new

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Speaker 3: finance minister, Energy minister, head of the Central Bank and

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Speaker 3: the Stock exchange. They do not provide a list, but

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Speaker 3: they said there will be between five hundred billion and

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Speaker 3: seven hundred billion investment opportunities for foreign investors over the

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Speaker 3: next five years. So you can see very quickly how

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Speaker 3: the dollar signs are flashing all over Wall Street. The

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Speaker 3: question though, is is this actually going to benefit anybody?

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Speaker 3: And by the way, what always actually belies these is

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Speaker 3: it actually a good investment? And that's one of those

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Speaker 3: where there's been so much talk about oil. I will

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Speaker 3: not purport to be an oil expert, but there is

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Speaker 3: a legitimate question of can we even get any of

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Speaker 3: this oil out all of that easily? Do we need

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Speaker 3: this oil? We are a current net exporterer. What would

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Speaker 3: be the effect of get this or do the US

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Speaker 3: oil companies even want it? And in general, how has

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Speaker 3: it generally worked out? Not just investing in Venezuela all

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Speaker 3: over South America from Argentina.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Argentina really need.

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Speaker 3: A bailout from you know, even under their great stewardship,

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Speaker 3: Like if you look in the long run over these

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Speaker 3: types of projects. Do we just really going to sit

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Speaker 3: here and declare the next administration will honor.

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Speaker 1: Any deal currently made here?

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I'm not saying they should or shouldn't,

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Speaker 3: just saying in general, it's kind of a bad idea

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Speaker 3: to invest in Venezuela or really any in some sort

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Speaker 3: of like coupdetas type situation, despite you know, some promises

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Speaker 3: that are currently made by the administration. But nonetheless that

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Speaker 3: is the justification, So we should judge it, is it

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Speaker 3: possible and can it work out? And obviously some people

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Speaker 3: on Wall Street they certainly seem to think so yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they would be investing into an inherently unstable situation.

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Speaker 2: I think that is just you know, the reality, the

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Speaker 2: undeniable reality. One funny note, I guess funny note about

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Speaker 2: Charles Myers. Huge Democrats door like one of the biggest

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Speaker 2: Democratic donors.

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Speaker 4: Last I checked.

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Speaker 2: Part of how I know that is because he actually

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Speaker 2: contributed to my congressional campaign back in twenty ten.

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Speaker 4: So I've met him, I've been to his apartment.

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Speaker 2: Seems like a very nice man, but you know, he

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Speaker 2: does what Wall Street guys do.

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Speaker 4: And this is a it's.

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Speaker 2: Important to understand the way that on the money side,

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Speaker 2: it is a thoroughly bipartisan, of course, a fair thoroughly

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Speaker 2: bipartisan affair. And so you know, we'll talk more about

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Party reaction. But on the oil front, you've

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Speaker 2: got the economists doing a pretty good analysis of some

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Speaker 2: of the challenges here can put this up on the

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Speaker 2: screen of whether or not this great Venezuelan oil gamble

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Speaker 2: would even pay off. They say the country is the

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Speaker 2: world's largest patrolling reserves. Getting them out of the ground

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Speaker 2: will be tortuous, and they point to the fact that,

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Speaker 2: I mean, the infrastructure has been thoroughly degraded over years.

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Speaker 2: They've had a massive brain train, so some of the

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Speaker 2: top engineers and scientists that have to be involved in

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Speaker 2: oil extraction have fled the country. The whole thing is

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Speaker 2: based run by the military at this point. Then you

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Speaker 2: also have the you know. I mean it was not

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Speaker 2: long ago that you had oil interests in the country

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Speaker 2: and then they you know, had the revolution and were

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Speaker 2: forced into a situation where they had to take if

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Speaker 2: they were going to stay a minority stake, and so

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Speaker 2: they're sort of Trump scarred by that.

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Speaker 4: You've got the.

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Speaker 2: Same administration in place, even if it's not Maduro. You've

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Speaker 2: now got Delca Rodriguez his vice president, who is head

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Speaker 2: of state. So leads to a lot of questions. And

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Speaker 2: then you also have the reality of the oil market.

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Speaker 2: Listen again, I also am not an oil expert here,

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Speaker 2: but we can put the politico peace up.

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Speaker 4: On the screen. This is from a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: Trump administration was asking US oil industry executives whether they

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Speaker 2: would return to Venezuela, and it says they were getting

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Speaker 2: hard nose across the board. And so's it's the infrastructure,

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Speaker 2: it's the brain drain, it's what would be required, it's

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Speaker 2: the difficulty of it. There's also a problem with because

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Speaker 2: of the sanctions on Russia, getting what they would need

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Speaker 2: there some key solvent that they need for this particular

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Speaker 2: type of oil. And then you also just have the

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Speaker 2: economic reality that oil is you know, pretty low per

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Speaker 2: barrel right now, So the economics aren't necessarily there to

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Speaker 2: justify this type of investment, at least not in the

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Speaker 2: short term anyway. So anyone who's thinking like, oh, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna we're just going to go in and get the oil.

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Speaker 2: First of all, as I said before, I don't know

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Speaker 2: why we get this confusion about how this works. Like

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Speaker 2: oil is a global commodity. It's not us getting the oil.

436
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 2: It would be like exonmobile, congratulations to them. And even

437
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: that is highly uncertain because economics don't make sense, and

438
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: at best it would be a very long term, like

439
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: decades long project out of time. When you know, renewables

440
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 2: genuinely are coming into their own and becoming much more

441
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 2: cost competitive and much more widespread. And China's obviously made

442
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: a big play there. So that's kind of the landscape

443
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 2: and cracking.

444
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: Of course, it's people seem to act like it's the

445
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 3: year two thousand and like, guys, we have racking.

446
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 1: I mean, we have our net oil exporter.

447
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 3: We've never had more oil than we have right now,

448
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 3: and you've got the heavy crude problem, the production problem also,

449
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a problem that China runs into

450
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 3: one of the things that they do is they'll make

451
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 3: some deal, you know, for minerals or something, but then

452
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 3: somebody needs to guard their personnel in these like destabilized

453
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 3: African countries, and then routinely they run into like security

454
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 3: problems and they don't really know what to do. This

455
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 3: is exactly how you have, you know, kind of the

456
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 3: pull where Okay, let's say US oil company strikes a deal, well,

457
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 3: that means American employees will have to go there and

458
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 3: do something you just talked about brain drain. That means

459
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 3: that they're now a target for let's say leftist or

460
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: right wing gorillas who are either upset about Venezuela or

461
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 3: just want to steal their oil.

462
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 1: This happens in Brazil.

463
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 3: There's all these people who are always surrounding either gold

464
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 3: mines in the Amazon rainforest, and then people need to

465
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 3: go there and protect them. And then you just needs

466
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: to one death, which brings more troops in, which brings

467
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,479
Speaker 3: an attack on them, which brings us even I mean,

468
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 3: if you can see it, how easily it could all spire.

469
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 4: Would you want to open a business and.

470
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: Just think about it from like right again a personal perspective,

471
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying.

472
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 3: Like, look at the White House and be like, Yep,

473
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 3: those are the guys who are going to protect me.

474
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: Those are the guys who are good to their word.

475
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: Those are the not even just this White House. Look

476
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 3: at everybody, I mean, all of the promises that have

477
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 3: all been made over the last twenty years.

478
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: Would you really do well betting on Washington.

479
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 3: No, unless you're a defense contractor, I guess, But everybody

480
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 3: else I would, I'd be very, very skeptical. And as

481
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: you said, I mean I had that. I had so

482
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: many notes about Venezuela from our last show, and this

483
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 3: was one of them that came out, i think right

484
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 3: after our very last show about not getting any takers

485
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 3: and the main point that these oil companies were making

486
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 3: to the White Houses.

487
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: They're like, guys, we have a five year low.

488
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 3: It's like, that's not when you drill, right, that's whenever

489
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 3: you're like, Okay, we'll sit here.

490
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,239
Speaker 1: We're trying to manage supply all of this.

491
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 3: We need to recoup a lot of losses and things

492
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,719
Speaker 3: that we made previously during the great exploration times of

493
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. There's a big desire right now. Another point,

494
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 3: as you just said, there's this idea of well, it

495
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 3: will take between five seven hundred, five hundred and seven

496
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty billion of oil infrastructure that takes years

497
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 3: to implement. Another important thing to remember about Venezuela is

498
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: where the oil is. I mean it's remote, like it's

499
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 3: not actually that easy to get to. And then there's

500
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 3: the port infrastructure. There is the use of perhaps the

501
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 3: necessity of the US Navy in having to protect all

502
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 3: of this. Right now, as you and I are speaking,

503
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: there is a test where some former Maduro tankers are

504
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 3: actually leaving Venezuela in a test of the blockade because

505
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 3: the Trump administration has said that they're going to continue

506
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 3: the current economic bucket.

507
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: Are they going to be able to go through?

508
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 3: There are two Chinese Venezuelan co owned supertankers which are

509
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,719
Speaker 3: waiting off the coast. There are three supertankers which currently

510
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 3: ferry Venezuelan oil to China.

511
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: This is another thing.

512
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,479
Speaker 3: You know, China literally had to build new refineries just

513
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 3: for this be crude that came from Venezuela.

514
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 1: Is that going to be permitted?

515
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,479
Speaker 3: Well, well, the Chinese governments say, you know, the Chinese

516
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 3: delegation was actually in Venezuela in Caracas when all of

517
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 3: this went down, and met with Venezuela Maduro the very

518
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: day that he was actually captured that night.

519
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to take too kindly to that.

520
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 3: There's so so many questions, but the main one is

521
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 3: about money. Yeah, I mean, as you said here, I

522
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 3: mean the fundamental question is really like, does more oil

523
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 3: colony equal.

524
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: More money for America.

525
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 3: Maybe, but as we all found out, let's say, during Ukraine,

526
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 3: it was a bonanza for American oil companies because the

527
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: price of oil went up, and especially LNG we were

528
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 3: exporting and we got these great clients in Europe. But

529
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 3: also all of our prices went up too, because we

530
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 3: refused to enforce any of our export laws and made

531
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 3: it so that the price in the aggregate rose and

532
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 3: we ended up paying more. Remember how many how much

533
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 3: everybody's power bill went up, and with all the gas

534
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 3: Kanico and all of the crises, and that I haven't

535
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: even brought in data centers, you know, in the way

536
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 3: that we have a completely deregulated energy market.

537
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: So I just really am skeptical.

538
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 3: You know that this is all going to work out

539
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 3: extraordinarily well for the average consumer.

540
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I'd be happy if it did, but I.

541
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 3: Just I don't, I genuinely do not see how you

542
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: could really bet, as a Wall Street or an oil executive,

543
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 3: that you will have ten to fifteen years where you'll

544
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 3: be able to come in, build the infrastructure, extract the infrastructure,

545
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 3: have enough of political stability to be able to get

546
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 3: the oil, ship the oil, get it to America, refine

547
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: the oil, profit from all of it. There's a reason

548
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 3: why they were not really chomping at the bit or

549
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 3: as I always forget whatever, chomping at the bed champing.

550
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll go with that one.

551
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 3: But why they were not like begging the administration to

552
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 3: go in like in the twenty first cent, like for

553
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 3: where we are right now, it's not like a fundation

554
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 3: mental necessity. And then there's also Opek. You know, you

555
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 3: have to remember that. So even if we do necessarily

556
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: control a large amount of these reserves, there's this huge

557
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 3: global market. We have Russians, you know, the Chinese also

558
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 3: have their ability. They have their own deals in place

559
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: with a number of others. So look, I don't know yet,

560
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 3: but it's one of those where the oil bet seems

561
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 3: to me like there was a reason we talked with

562
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 3: Ava why in the two thousands they were obsessed with Venezuela.

563
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 3: And now there's this Jack Ryan clip going around about well,

564
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 3: I'm not saying oil is not important, but it is

565
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 3: not fundamentally the same story or strategic calculus as it

566
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 3: was at that time. Not saying won't be a bonanza

567
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 3: per se. Perhaps if they were able to pull it off,

568
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 3: but there's so many roadblocks. There are way more roadblocks

569
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 3: on the path to success, and the payout from the

570
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 3: success does not necessarily seem like it would be all

571
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 3: that fantastic or great for the United States.

572
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 2: So one thing I will say, I don't know how

573
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: much stock to put in this, but I did ze

574
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 2: one analysis that was like, you know, it's not really

575
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: about the oil, it's more about the petro dollar. And

576
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: with the idea being that, yeah, I mean, the petro

577
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: dollars are important part of maintaining the dollar as the

578
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 2: world's preserve currency. That if American oil companies are the

579
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: ones who are you in control of these oil reserves,

580
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 2: then that oil is continuing to be denominated in US dollars.

581
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 2: Sort of a blow against the Bricks Alliance and any

582
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: sort of other competing project for countries to band together

583
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: and move away from that global system of finance.

584
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 4: So I did see that, just.

585
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: To put that out there that perhaps that is some

586
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: of the thinking that's going into this as well.

587
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:37,719
Speaker 1: I saw that too.

588
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 3: You know, at the same time, for China, it's only

589
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 3: five percent of their entire oil supply, like it's not

590
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 3: really like a great big blow necessarily to.

591
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: Them, but in their fantasy world, you know, they would

592
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 2: get Venezuela and oil production back up to the glory

593
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: days of wherever it used to be, and it would

594
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 2: put it in line with like, you know, the eighth

595
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: largest oil producer.

596
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 4: In the world or what happened.

597
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 3: I mean, there is a better case for the US colonizing,

598
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 3: in my opinion, Taiwan than there is for Venezuela, Like

599
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 3: that is ten times more important. I mean, the Chinese

600
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 3: might call it already a US colony that they currently

601
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 3: have over in Taiwan, part of the reason why they're

602
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 3: very upset about the entire current political situation and may

603
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 3: even use the same logic that we just did in

604
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: enforcing their own spheres of influence doctrine. But nonetheless, that

605
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,239
Speaker 3: is the theory here about Venezuela, so many roadblocks in

606
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 3: the interim. I mean, if you are the current Venezuelan regime, yeah,

607
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 3: you just want to give Trump whatever he wants. Just

608
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 3: remember this, even lifting the sanctions a fifth by fifty

609
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 3: percent of where they currently are would be a massive

610
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 3: boon to the Venezuelan economy, massive and would enable like

611
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: some limited investment. Chevron already currently has a deal right

612
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,239
Speaker 3: now with Venezuela. They could maybe ramp that up and

613
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 3: they could call it a win. But is there going

614
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: to be some you know, massive move Panama Canal style

615
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: project down in Venezuela. I don't see it, especially considering

616
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 3: the political instability there and here instability here.

617
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly exactly.

618
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 3: It just doesn't seem like a good investment if you

619
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 3: are a multi multi billion dollar oil company.

620
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: But it could be.

621
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: Wrong, and maybe they want to explore and all that,

622
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 3: so we'll see.

623
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: Let's get to Dems.

624
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: We wanted to take a look at the Democratic Party

625
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 2: reaction here, which has been somewhat divided. I guess I

626
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: would characterize it that overwhelmingly there's been opposition, but some

627
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: much more forceful than others, especially from the leadership of

628
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: the party, which has been very like process oriented, like

629
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: you didn't even ask us or notify us appropriately about

630
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: your regime change or emblematic of that. Of course, Chuck

631
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 2: Schumer with the lamest possible approach to you all of this,

632
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen.

633
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 9: We are saying to the Republicans, this is your responsibility.

634
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 9: President Trump is a member of your party. You've gone

635
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 9: along with him over and over again, and this is

636
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 9: one time you've got to resist him. It's too serious.

637
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: Are you hearing anything from other Republicans?

638
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 9: I had, as I said, we have heard from some

639
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 9: Republicans in private conversations chairs talking to their ranking members,

640
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 9: that they have some they are troubled by this, but

641
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 9: not much more than that.

642
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: And is that something that could rise to enment or

643
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 2: what other options are available to you.

644
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 9: Guys, Tyler, I just say it's premature to guess that

645
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 9: far into the future. We hope that, as I said,

646
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 9: we hope that we can have support from our Republican

647
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 9: colleagues to put a brake on this long before it

648
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 9: gets that far. It's this is sort of is unprecedented

649
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 9: as to what he has done in the way he

650
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,479
Speaker 9: has done it. In the secrecy in which he has

651
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 9: engaged in it, and we're going to do everything we can.

652
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: So many strongly worded letters were written, were penned. Ta

653
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 2: Kim Jeffers also put on an extremely lame letter that,

654
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 2: like I said, focused on the process. You can see

655
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: humor there, ruling out any sort of like move towards

656
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: aggressive measures like impeachment, saying, ah, this is really the

657
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: Republicans responsibility. We hope they do something. Spoiler alert, They're

658
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: not going to. Overwhelmingly they support this, with the exception

659
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 2: I think of Marjorie Taylor Green and Thomas Massey. Let's

660
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: go and put this up on the screen. This is

661
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 2: from some anonymous supposedly like swing district Dems. They are

662
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 2: unhappy with the fact that the party has positioned themselves

663
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 2: in opposition to the kidnapping of Madura in the attack

664
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: on Venezuela. Let me go ahead and read you a

665
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 2: little bit of this so you can see just exactly

666
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 2: how lame it is. Some Democrats are grumbling at their

667
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 2: party's largely oppositional stance to Trump's raid to capture Venezuela

668
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 2: and President Nicholas Maduro, saying privately their colleagues should be

669
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: celebrating why it matters. These lawmakers argue, it could be

670
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: a major political miscalculation if party fails to applaud the

671
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: downfall of a brutal dictator with sufficient volume, even given

672
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 2: grave concerns about the operations, legality and longer term ramifications.

673
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 2: Party leaders have raged at Trump for bypassing Congress, leaving

674
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 2: them in the dark. So here is some Here are

675
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: some of the quotes they say. One swing district House

676
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 2: democrat told Axios in a text message on Saturday, Nuance

677
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 2: is dead in politics. Maduro is bad. Glad he's gone.

678
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 2: You can't have it both ways, the lawmaker said, meanting

679
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 2: that everything Trump touches must be bad according to the base,

680
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 2: so hating their own base. Another vulnerable House democrat told

681
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 2: Axios in a phone interview, as Democrats, we can't just

682
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: condemn what happened. I wish the Democratic Party would be

683
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 2: a little more measured on this.

684
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: I think it looks weak.

685
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 2: A third centrist House democrat said, if you don't acknowledge

686
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: when there is a win for our country, then you

687
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 2: lose all credibility. So that is what's coming from some

688
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: of these swing district dems. I did want to put

689
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 2: put this in context with the fact that, you know,

690
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: before this action occurred, there.

691
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 4: Was polling that was done.

692
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure we covered some of it here, asking

693
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: American people whether or not they would support military action

694
00:34:55,239 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: in Venezuela, and it was overwhelmingly unpopular. Okay, So I

695
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 2: feel like Soger some of these Democrats. I mean, there's

696
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: a money influence here, like no.

697
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 4: Doubt about it.

698
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 1: I think it's idea all, but there's also.

699
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 2: There's an ideological there's also like just a legacy thinking

700
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 2: of still living in an era where Florida is a

701
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 2: swing state and where you know, the politics of regime

702
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: change was a lot different and where there was still

703
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 2: more of this like Cold War furivor, And certainly for

704
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: someone like Chuck Schumer, he's still living in that era

705
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 2: and they don't recognize that.

706
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 4: Like it's the easiest political.

707
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: Layup just based on where the American people are, you know,

708
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 2: Democrats and independence in particular to oppose this and oppose

709
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: it more forcefully than the Schumers and Jeffreys of the

710
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: world certainly have.

711
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

712
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 3: I mean, look, there's snappoles that are coming out right now.

713
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 3: People are basically split on it, but the vast majority

714
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 3: are especially against occupying or running Venezuela.

715
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: I mean, it's kind of understandable.

716
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 3: Everyone can be impressed with the capability of the US

717
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 3: military and especially the US Special Operation. Then we always

718
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: have been. That's been like, you know, they make movies

719
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: about zero dark thirty. I'm sure that there will be

720
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 3: one about this one that is fundamentally separate though from

721
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 3: the idea of running Venezuela and in particular the strategic

722
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 3: logic of the future of explicit like oil extraction for

723
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 3: what exactly, And again you have to rely on the

724
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 3: competence the follow through of this current administration. I think

725
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 3: that that is one where it's pretty simple to speak

726
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 3: out against. And on a base level, I mean whether

727
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 3: this was a cool, good idea, bad idea or not

728
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 3: from where a lot of the Democratic base is. I

729
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: just don't see how there could be any potential upside

730
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 3: for being like, oh, yeah, it's a good idea unless

731
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 3: you're literally in living in a red state where yes, okay,

732
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: if you're a Florida Democrat, I definitely see the calculus

733
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 3: for you. For everybody else, and especially in the potential primary,

734
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 3: I mean, what they if you're a Democrat and your

735
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 3: critique of the Trump foreign policy, you have to get

736
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,919
Speaker 3: to a point where it is literally like vision based

737
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 3: for a different view at this point, that is like

738
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 3: what Rokanna and very few other Democrats are offering. Part

739
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 3: of the reason Kamala struggled in the election was a

740
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 3: she was tied to the Biden administration, but b is

741
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 3: that she could never particularly articulate like a vision or

742
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 3: a view of the world. Now Trump actually did, you know,

743
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: it didn't stick to basically any of it, but it

744
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 3: was a compelling narrative, definitely one that took off with

745
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 3: a lot of people. You could have pointed out, you know,

746
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,919
Speaker 3: s different stuff during the first Trump administration that was contradictory,

747
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 3: but the vision itself was important. Looking explicitly at this

748
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 3: for Venezuela, for Gaza, and for much and for really

749
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 3: like a general tariff's general treatment of the rest of

750
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: the world, you're like, we are not going to act

751
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 3: like this, And I don't see that from Chuck Schumer,

752
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 3: from Hakim Jeffries. They're much more concerned about like, oh,

753
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 3: we weren't briefed. It's like, okay, we were all briefed about

754
00:37:58,760 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: a rack, Like does that.

755
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:00,760
Speaker 1: Make a rack that great idea?

756
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 3: Like, no, you were all briefed on Libya, Okay, I

757
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,919
Speaker 3: mean Libya was bad. Yeah, Like for some reason, they're

758
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 3: just obsessed with this like process oriented brain and they're

759
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 3: not looking at it, both in terms of twenty twenty eight,

760
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 3: but also just as like a literal alternative vision of

761
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 3: like this is not how we're going to run our country.

762
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is not how we're going to interface with

763
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: other countries.

764
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 4: Yeah.

765
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 2: Period, that's exactly right. This nappole you referred to one

766
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 2: of them anyway. This is from Yugov on January third?

767
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,479
Speaker 2: Do you support or oppose the US running Venezuela following

768
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 2: the US military's capture of Nicholas Maduro. Support is thirty

769
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 2: four percent, oppose as forty one percent, net support GOP

770
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 2: plus forty four, DEM minus forty eight, and Independent minus seventeen.

771
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 2: So it's popular with MAGA, and I think that's where

772
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 2: you've seen the numbers move dramatically because prior to the action,

773
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: you even had a significant number of Republicans were like, no,

774
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 2: we don't want to do this. But the moment Daddy

775
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: Trump does something, then suddenly it's a great idea. But

776
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 2: in terms of Democrats and independence, they're still a post

777
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 2: and let me tell you it's not going to get

778
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,959
Speaker 2: any more popular than it is right now.

779
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 4: In fact, to me, it's.

780
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 2: A little bit shocking, given the overwhelming force of pro

781
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 2: war propaganda that blankets the airwaves across the board, and

782
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 2: all the celebration of like, oh my god, the operation

783
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: was so incredible and it was so created and so brave,

784
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 2: and it was executed so well blah blah blah. It's

785
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 2: kind of amazing to me that out of the gates

786
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 2: it's already net negative. It will never be more popular

787
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 2: than it is right now. So there is for democrats

788
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 2: politically zero risk in taking an aggressively oppositional view. And

789
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: so it's crazy to me that you have these And

790
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 2: this is where like the I don't know, the political

791
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 2: calculus has just gone so wonky, where the whole thing

792
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 2: of being a quote unquote centrist is just to like

793
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 2: disagree with wherever the wherever the base of your party is,

794
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 2: regardless of whether they're the ones that are actually holding

795
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 2: the popular position.

796
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 5: You know.

797
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 2: The idea of being a centrist was more to sort

798
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 2: of like acknowledge places where the right has like strong

799
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,760
Speaker 2: ground here they're doing something that's popular.

800
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 4: That is not the case with yet.

801
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: Another regime change war with some like total boondoggle, lack

802
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 2: of a plan and no idea what's going to happen

803
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 2: going forward. So I don't know, it's just pathetic, but

804
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 2: you're right that ideologically some of them just agree with it.

805
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 2: I mean, or some of them have come out. W

806
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 2: Wasserman Schulz came out and was like mad about Machado

807
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 2: being so why didn't you go further with your regime change.

808
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: There's a little bit of that going on with them

809
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 2: as well, where they're still critiquing Trump, but honestly from

810
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 2: like a more aggressive, more pro war stance. You can

811
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 2: see Margaret Brennan's interview with Mark or Ruby if you

812
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 2: want to flavor what that looks like. But I do

813
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 2: want to give credit to, you know, a few people

814
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: who are out there who've done a good job. Rokan,

815
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 2: you know, Surprisingly, Kamlo's statement was a little bit better

816
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 2: than I thought. She did do the process thing, but

817
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: it had a little more meat too it than I expected.

818
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 2: So sign of her positioning herself and trying to figure

819
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 2: out where to be for a potentially run in twenty

820
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: twenty eight Rocana, though, I mean once again really standing

821
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: up and showing up in a way that is impressive.

822
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,240
Speaker 2: Then I think understanding the moment much better than maybe

823
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 2: any of his colleagues. You can put this up on

824
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: the screen, he says. The silence from many media hype

825
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight contenders today is shocking. If you cannot

826
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: oppose this regime change, war for oil, you don't have

827
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 2: moral clarity or guts to lead our party or nation.

828
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: And you know, at this point when you put this out,

829
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,760
Speaker 2: I don't know if they've piped up yet, but Newsome

830
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 2: hasn't had anything to say. I think Pete put on

831
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 2: a lame statement. Pritzker put out kind of a lame statement.

832
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of the ones who get a

833
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 2: lot of love from the media for twenty twenty eight

834
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: have either had very little to say, or it's have

835
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 2: been completely silent, or it's been the sort of like

836
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: process thing. And then as a very you know, sort

837
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: of aggressively alternative view of what I think the messaging

838
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: should sound like. Graham Platner, of course, candidate for Senate

839
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 2: in Maine and a former service member himself, just came

840
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: out of the gates swinging very hard and using you know,

841
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 2: very aggressive and unequivocal language of the sort that I

842
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 2: think really lands much better than this sort of like

843
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: nit pick over process stuff that you get from the leadership.

844
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 4: This is E five. Let's go ahead and take a

845
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 4: listen to Graham.

846
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 6: This is not foreign policy.

847
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 7: This is gangsterism on an international scale. We must not

848
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 7: be fooled by the childish lies being used to justify

849
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 7: this illegal aggression. Be wary of.

850
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 8: The establishment voices in media and in politics over the

851
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 8: next few weeks will work tirelessly to manufacture consent, even

852
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 8: when they sound like they are opposed. Keep an ear

853
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 8: out for this operation is bad but followed by words

854
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 8: about democracy dictatorship in international law.

855
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:47,760
Speaker 6: If those were.

856
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 7: Justifications for invasion and abduction, we'd have invaded many of

857
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 7: our allies a long time ago. Those voices are doing

858
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 7: the work of empire, and we must be vigilant for

859
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 7: their duplicitousness. If they are media figures, change the channel.

860
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 6: If they are.

861
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 7: Political figures, work tirelessly to remove them from power.

862
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 2: And you know, Sager, you'll recall there was this War

863
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 2: Powers resolution vote in the Senate Mark Rubio went to

864
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 2: because it was hanging on a nice edge. Mark Rubio

865
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 2: went and said, we're not going to do any sort

866
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 2: of military action. If we do what come to you first,

867
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 2: we pinky promise that, you know, we don't have any

868
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 2: plans in that direction, as they were actively planning exactly

869
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,919
Speaker 2: what we've seen unfold. And because of that, guess who

870
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 2: decided not to vote for the War Powers resolution waited

871
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 2: to the last moment. Susan Collins, so very relevant in

872
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 2: that race in Maine. And also, look, I don't know

873
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 2: how you like if you believed them at that point,

874
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 2: like you're just a fool. I mean, and I think

875
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 2: many of them probably didn't even believe them. They just

876
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: want an excuse to take the easy route and not

877
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 2: take a difficult vote.

878
00:43:58,239 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 1: Well, I think they, I don't know if they did.

879
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 3: Maybe they did believe it because it would just be

880
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: so unbelievable to literally go an extraordinary rendition Maduro. I mean,

881
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 3: you have to admit as shocking, right, but even from

882
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 3: their perspective, it would be stupid and counter productive. Yeah,

883
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't understand with the Democrats why they

884
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 3: just don't take swings and of course, it's always easier

885
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 3: when you're on the outside, like Graham or some of

886
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 3: these other insurgent candidates.

887
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 1: But learn from the Lasson know of Obama.

888
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 3: Like two thousand and two, Obama gave his speech against

889
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 3: the Iraq War. It was overwhelmingly unpopular at the time.

890
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 3: It's actually way more popular right now to just speak

891
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 3: up about Venezuela or any of these things. But you

892
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 3: get rewarded for actually not even taking a gamble, but

893
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 3: having a clear position. Whenever I'm Trump did the same thing.

894
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 3: He was the only person on the stage in twenty

895
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 3: sixteen to just be like, Yep, the Iraq War was

896
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 3: a bad idea, and everybody else was trying to say, oh,

897
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,320
Speaker 3: we didn't do it right, or actually the initial invasion

898
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,919
Speaker 3: was correct, or you literally had Jeb Bush up there

899
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 3: defending his brother. It was literally just him being like

900
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 3: it was a complete disaster. Disaster, right, That's what a

901
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 3: lot of people want it to hear. That's what makes

902
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: somebody that's just purely from the political level. It also

903
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: happens to align with the base. And you know, ideally

904
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 3: what you want is you want base plus country to

905
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 3: be able or try to convince the country that your

906
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 3: idea is correct. So it's just very clear to me

907
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 3: that the current Democrat establishment like doesn't have it. Whenever

908
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 3: it comes to any of this, the question will be

909
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 3: how they respond to these primaries, if they even really

910
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 3: materialize and or successful, and then what does that twenty

911
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 3: twenty six dynamic look like in a new Congress? Right,

912
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: because Schumer he may not be long for this world

913
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 3: from a leader perspective, although if I had to bet,

914
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 3: put a bet down, I still.

915
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: Think he would win.

916
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, just yeah, I'm saying win with the with the

917
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 3: race because I mean I've been asking around.

918
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 4: Oh, I think if AOC ran against him, he would oh.

919
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 3: No, no, if he wins reelection, and if he gets reelect,

920
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 3: if he becomes if he wins reelection and he's still

921
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 3: in the Senate, whether he will become the leader.

922
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 1: I think there will definitely be some protest votes.

923
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 3: But considering that the way that the caucus is, there's

924
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 3: too many safe seats. I asked a friend of mine

925
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 3: to do the general math on whether they want whether

926
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 3: any consensus candidate could actually re emerge, and they're like, well,

927
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 3: you know, in general, he's done enough enough of a

928
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 3: job to keep some people happy, but it's certainly possible

929
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 3: that he could he could lose. He could if he

930
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 3: does win reelection, that he could lose the eventual leader race. Again,

931
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 3: I'm not entirely sure, but it just comes down to

932
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 3: like vision and being able to present a real opportunity.

933
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 3: And then the biggest question is about these insurgents is

934
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 3: how are they going to act when they come into Congress?

935
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: Because he had the AOC squad, I mean, you know,

936
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 3: it hasn't really worked out all that well. So the

937
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 3: question is like, you know, are they going to keep

938
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 3: that energy, what's that going to look like?

939
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 1: Are you going to form a similar Freedom Caucus thing?

940
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 3: Are you going to use media as a pressure force,

941
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 3: you know, on your party the way that the original

942
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: Freedom Caucus was able to do that to the recurrent

943
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 3: Republican establishment whenever they were in power.

944
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: So I don't know. Yeah, they're all like the more interesting.

945
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 2: Questions, absolutely, and that's I mean, we're going to get

946
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 2: a lot of answers this year in twenty twenty six,

947
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:02,800
Speaker 2: especially with what happens in these primaries obviously what happens

948
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 2: in the general election, you know, are we going to

949
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 2: have grand platter in the Senate because that in and

950
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 2: of itself will be significant. And you know, so I

951
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 2: think I think Schumer's fate as leader does hang in

952
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 2: the balance of what direction the Democratic Party decides to go.

953
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 2: And I'm not talking about the Democratic Party leader. I'm

954
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 2: talking about the base. And that's what I think is

955
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 2: different now and why you may end up with a

956
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 2: different result than you know.

957
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 4: The tactical sort of like I.

958
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 2: Guess, tactical retreat that the squad decided to pursue and

959
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 2: really never acted as a cohesive entity. I don't think

960
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 2: ever really saw themselves as a cohesive entity, you know,

961
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 2: according to Ryan's reporting. But you've got a base that

962
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 2: wants to hear them aggressively opposing this war, aggressively opposing

963
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 2: the genocide in Gaza, aggressively pursuing Medicare for all. That

964
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:58,359
Speaker 2: is different, and who is very disgusted and disappointed with

965
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 2: the leadership of the party. So that does put things

966
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 2: in a very different place. But you know, we've got

967
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 2: a number of these issues that are rising to the

968
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 2: surface that are really separating the factions of the Democratic

969
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 2: Party and helping to make it clear like sure, you

970
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: can be a Gavin Newsome and you can go out

971
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 2: and you can post, you know, and go up against

972
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 2: Trump with you you're posting and your memes, and people

973
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 2: appreciate that, there's no doubt about it. But are are

974
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 2: voters going to be sophisticated enough to make the distinction

975
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 2: between someone who postures in this way and someone who

976
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 2: is genuinely going to offer a different vision and is

977
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 2: not going to be beholden to capital and is going

978
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 2: to be willing to confront capital and take some of

979
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 2: these difficult stances. So that's some of the flavor of

980
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 2: what we're going to start to learn in twenty twenty six,

981
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 2: which I'm excited to see. I am so disturbed and

982
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 2: disgusted by the number not only of fake videos that

983
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 2: have put and put out and spread around to manufacture

984
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 2: consent for this kidnapping and attack on Venezuela. But even

985
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 2: after people get called out, there's no shame anymore. They

986
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 2: don't take them down. They just leave them up and

987
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,479
Speaker 2: then added to that mix. So when we first started

988
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 2: covering the Ukraine War, we had to contend with a

989
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 2: lot of fake videos. Gaza, we had to contend with

990
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 2: a lot of fake videos. We tried to be really careful,

991
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 2: and I don't think we've had any significant failure on

992
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 2: our part of putting something up that turned out to

993
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 2: be fake or misrepresented. So now though you have to

994
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 2: add into it AI and AI being good enough now

995
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 2: that apparently people especially people want to fall for it,

996
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:39,720
Speaker 2: will just completely fall for this bullshit and share it widely.

997
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 2: So the specific flavor of video that was being shared

998
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 2: everywhere were these like, oh my god, the Venezuelans in

999
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 2: Venezuela are so happy that Trump came in and kidnapped

1000
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 2: the leader of their country. And one of them that

1001
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 2: was shared the most widely is just it's AI.

1002
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 4: It's all invented.

1003
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 2: And if you have at all a discerning I, you

1004
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 2: can see that this is fake. Like, if you look

1005
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 2: at this carefully, you can tell that it's fake. Let's

1006
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:06,839
Speaker 2: put this up on the screen and you guys can

1007
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: see for yourself. So it's supposedly all these Venezuelans take

1008
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 2: to the streets to celebrate Maduro's downfall, and you have

1009
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 2: this old lady in the front who's crying with joy. Okay,

1010
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: this frickin' AI post, which is still up even with

1011
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 2: the community note in here that says it's AI generated.

1012
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:30,800
Speaker 2: This has thirty nine thousand retweets, it has over five

1013
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 2: million views, it has one hundred and eighteen thousand likes,

1014
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 2: and it was shared by none other than the richest

1015
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:42,520
Speaker 2: man on the planet, Elon Musk. So now we have

1016
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 2: to add to just the you know, general propaganda, the

1017
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 2: fact that people can put out completely fabricated videos and

1018
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 2: pass them off as if they are reality, to create

1019
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:58,879
Speaker 2: a portrait that Venezuelans across the board inside of Venezuela

1020
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 2: are celebrated these actions. Let's go ahead and put the

1021
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 2: next one up on the screen. We can go through

1022
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 2: some of these. So Glenn was really doing the Lord's

1023
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 2: work here going through and flagging a bunch of these

1024
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 2: fake or misrepresented videos. So this one is from Alex Jones.

1025
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: He posts this video and he says millions of Venezuelans

1026
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 2: flooded the streets of Caracas and other major cities in

1027
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 2: celebration of the ouster of communist dictator Nicholas Maduro. In reality,

1028
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:31,799
Speaker 2: the video shows Antimendora protests from last year following the

1029
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 2: disputed presidential election. I guess now two years ago, now

1030
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 2: that we're in twenty twenty six, not celebrations of his

1031
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 2: recent capture by US forces, and Glenn says, yet another

1032
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 2: megaviral video from Trump supporters that is falsely described. This

1033
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 2: is not a video from Tay today, it's an old

1034
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: video long before that. There also aren't close to millions here,

1035
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,319
Speaker 2: But again, who cares? These claims make people feel good,

1036
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:52,919
Speaker 2: that's what counts. Let's go and put the next one

1037
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 2: up on the screen. We've got here, Oh, Nick Shirley

1038
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 2: of the vaunted Minnesota fraud video that has now been

1039
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 2: used by the Trump administration to shut down daycare payments

1040
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 2: for all states in the entire country, he's got a

1041
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 2: fake video here. The video actually depicts Venezuelan exiles in Miami,

1042
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 2: not inside of Venezuela. Celebrating Nick Suirley tweeted, wait a minute,

1043
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 2: the MSM media lied to us again. The people of

1044
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 2: Venezuela actually didn't like being ruled by a narco terrorist.

1045
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 2: World Cup style celebrations are erupting all across Venezuela at

1046
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 2: the moment, and Glenn says, this is Miami, not Venezuela.

1047
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 4: But who cares.

1048
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 2: Just keep retweeting it. It feels good and that matters most.

1049
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: And again, last I checked had not taken this down

1050
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 2: even though it is not true the way he's representing it.

1051
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 2: Let's go and put the next one up on the screen.

1052
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 4: We've got.

1053
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 2: I'm not familiar with this guy, Jorge Macray that he

1054
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 2: says the city of Buenos Aras has always been, is

1055
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:49,240
Speaker 2: and will always be on the side of freedom. Mark's

1056
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 2: a historic day. Margaret Kimberly says, this video is from

1057
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 2: Buenos Aras. I guess he changed it, but oh, it's

1058
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty one celebration of their I think of

1059
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 2: like a World Cup win or some thing. So yeah,

1060
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: it has nothing to do with Maduro. It's an old

1061
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:07,399
Speaker 2: video from twenty twenty one celebrating a soccer victory. There

1062
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 2: you go, and yeah, I mean, these people are dishonest,

1063
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,359
Speaker 2: like they know that what they post is wrong. They

1064
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,280
Speaker 2: may have known it when they posted it and intentionally

1065
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 2: posted just flagrant lies to back up the Trump administration

1066
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 2: and to push a narrative about what is actually happening here,

1067
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,240
Speaker 2: and even after they get called out, they.

1068
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:26,839
Speaker 4: Just leave it up.

1069
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 2: So to me, it's it's very dystopian, the invention of

1070
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 2: reality to match the narrative that they want to push.

1071
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 1: I've never been.

1072
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 3: I also, I've never been more disturbed because and you

1073
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 3: know what, the reason why it's not just that we

1074
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 3: care about accuracy. I always operated on a theory if

1075
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:50,719
Speaker 3: you get stuff factually incorrect and don't you know, apologize.

1076
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 1: For you, Yeah, then people will leave you.

1077
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:56,719
Speaker 4: I don't think it's true anymore people to be lied to.

1078
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 3: No, I don't know if that's necessarily it. I think

1079
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 3: they just don't don't care. I don't think they want

1080
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 3: to be lied to per se. Maybe like structurally yes,

1081
00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 3: but as long as it goes along with the narrative,

1082
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 3: like they'll just you know, continue to say, oh, well

1083
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 3: they meant well or something like that. And I'm like,

1084
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,360
Speaker 3: it really makes me a question, you know, my entire

1085
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 3: career and just every single time, even on Venezuela, how

1086
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 3: I you know, hours on the phone talking to people,

1087
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 3: verifying details, making sure that everything I say is generally

1088
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,800
Speaker 3: backed up by like what I know, what I confirm.

1089
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 3: I have a roster of things that I've been told

1090
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 3: but don't can't confirm, so I don't say them on

1091
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 3: the air.

1092
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like, what's the point, you know, I'm being serious,

1093
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: What is the point of what is the point. I'm

1094
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:44,479
Speaker 1: not just being like, oh, here's what I heard from

1095
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 1: so and so. Who cares about looking like an idiot?

1096
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: You know, these these guys are you know, look at

1097
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: their views, their retweets, all of this not even I mean,

1098
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 1: that's just business. I mean, but generally, like look at

1099
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:58,760
Speaker 1: their there. They pay no price.

1100
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 2: I mean to sleep well night, I don't know. I mean,

1101
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 2: that's what I was talking to Kyle about this. He

1102
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 2: made one statement on his show when it were slightly

1103
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 2: misrepresented something, and he realized that after the fact. He

1104
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 2: was like, I could not sleep at night because I

1105
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 2: was like thinking about it, like I was still bothered

1106
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 2: by the fact that I stated this thing incorrectly, and

1107
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:17,000
Speaker 2: I relate to that, like I cannot imagine just putting

1108
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 2: out something that is blatantly false, getting called on it

1109
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 2: by like literally thousands of people, and just leaving it

1110
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 2: up there, just leaving it out there.

1111
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 4: I'm like, yeah, I don't care.

1112
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:27,719
Speaker 3: I found out that I said something one hundred I'm

1113
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 3: not talking about an opinion, okay, like a bad opinion

1114
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:30,720
Speaker 3: that's I mean.

1115
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,360
Speaker 1: Even that I may feel bad about. But it's like

1116
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 1: one of those where if you say something wrong, like

1117
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 1: actually one hundred percent wrong, and especially if it was

1118
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:43,479
Speaker 1: really important to the point that you were trying to make.

1119
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, oh my god. I think in the limited times

1120
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 3: that that has happened. I mean I've gone in and

1121
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 3: done comments on our own videos, just be like, hey,

1122
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 3: this is me, I got it wrong, you know, or

1123
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 3: I'll say it here, you know here on the show.

1124
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, guess other people don't care.

1125
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 1: Apparently care. You know, these guys are doing great.

1126
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:05,839
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's we live in it's wild and look.

1127
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 2: I don't purport to like represent what or know the

1128
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 2: ins and outs of how every Venezuelan and Venezuela is thinking.

1129
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 1: Nor would I ever exactly, but I.

1130
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: Will say I mean I genuinely went out and looked

1131
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 2: for any of the inside of Venezuela celebration videos to

1132
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 2: be accurate. None of them I have not found. You

1133
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 2: guys can, genuinely if you have seen some that you

1134
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 2: think are accurate, please them, because I have not seen one.

1135
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 2: And you know what, it works. The tactic works because

1136
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 2: if your feet is flooded with these things and you

1137
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 2: don't bother to go in and check it out, you

1138
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 2: just assume, like, oh, some of them must be real,

1139
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 2: like there must be some of that going on, and

1140
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:47,360
Speaker 2: we also have to remember, like this is a repressive regime.

1141
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 2: I'm sure the opposition is very afraid right now of

1142
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 2: what consequences could come to them or potential collaborators or whatever.

1143
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 2: So it wouldn't be surprised if there were no celebrations,

1144
00:56:57,040 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 2: even as you do have plenty of people in Venezuela

1145
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 2: were not happy living under Maduro and whatever. So what

1146
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:06,560
Speaker 2: we do have, I mean, the legitimate videos I have

1147
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 2: seen are people who are upset about the leader of

1148
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 2: their country being kidnapped. I don't think anyone should be

1149
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 2: surprised that that is a significant sentiment within Venezuela. You

1150
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:19,240
Speaker 2: can imagine if this was done to us, how people

1151
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 2: would react here, including some people who were not big

1152
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 2: fans of Donald Trump. So you can put F three

1153
00:57:23,960 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 2: up on the screen. You had a number of news

1154
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 2: organizations who were there on the ground. These are some

1155
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 2: of the pro Maduro, don't kidnap our leader protests that

1156
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 2: were ongoing. Sky News was there on the ground talking

1157
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: to people you had I think this is Middle East.

1158
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 2: I was on the ground. This is a major march

1159
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 2: in Caracas, and I thought this one was really significant.

1160
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 2: He says, how do I feel? I feel scared? And

1161
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 2: that was some of the coverage I saw on the

1162
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: ground too. Is people are just like, what the hell

1163
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 2: does this mean? Like there were huge lines at pharmacies

1164
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 2: and at grocery store, or is people like stockpiling the

1165
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 2: way that they do before natural disaster because their country

1166
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 2: continues to be threatened by our maniac president who says, hey,

1167
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 2: I'll go in, I'll go in even harder, says that

1168
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 2: we may put boots on the ground, say this may

1169
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 2: last for years, and says we run their country. So

1170
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:18,600
Speaker 2: I think a lot of the you know, from what

1171
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 2: I can tell from the news reporting, a lot of

1172
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 2: the sentiment is just fear about what is going to happen.

1173
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 4: And also going forward.

1174
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 3: It would make sense that there's no celebration because the

1175
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 3: current regime is still in power. They will kill you

1176
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 3: maybe if you go out and you celebrate like openly

1177
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 3: and an operation inside your country. Also, I know it's

1178
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 3: very reductive, but as many people have pointed out, if

1179
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 3: a foreign country came in and deposed a political leader

1180
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 3: like Trump, then there would be millions of Democrats, perhaps

1181
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 3: here or around the world who would celebrate, And by

1182
00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 3: the way, vice versa, if it were a Republican or

1183
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 3: if it were a democrat, and there were Republicans who

1184
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 3: might celebrate. That does not prove positive, but it is

1185
00:58:57,160 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 3: necessarily like the entire nation. Let's think about at this

1186
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 3: how many how many Americans live in the UK? I'm

1187
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 3: going to guess hundreds of thousands, I don't know the

1188
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:11,280
Speaker 3: exact number. Are they representative representative of.

1189
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 1: All of us?

1190
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 3: Right? That would be insane? What is the country with

1191
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 3: the most amount of Americans biggest xpact?

1192
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 1: Probably Israel? All right? Okay, let's guess does do the

1193
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 1: does the.

1194
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 3: Vision of all or the view of all Americans who

1195
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 3: reside in Israel?

1196
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 1: Are they totally representative of all of us?

1197
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 3: I've been all over the world in my experience, the

1198
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 3: Americans living abroad and often often are the least representative

1199
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 3: of the average Joe in the US.

1200
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 2: So the number one ex American xpac community is Mexico.

1201
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 1: Oh, Mexico, of course, I apologize.

1202
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, so in any case, and then say Germany, Puerto

1203
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 2: Rico bos part.

1204
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 1: Okay, but even Mexico.

1205
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 3: I mean, if you live in Mexico, like, what do

1206
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,640
Speaker 3: you really know, you know much about us Like this,

1207
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 3: I can say this too.

1208
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 1: My parents are Indian. My parents' views on India are

1209
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 1: like miles apart from the people who actually live in India.

1210
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:10,560
Speaker 1: Well that's the funniest part, Like we don't just because

1211
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 1: you were from there, it doesn't mean you know anything. Also,

1212
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 1: if you hated Maduro, you probably left.

1213
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 4: Well that's the thing.

1214
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 2: There's an ideological, you know, distinction between people who are

1215
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 2: still in Venezuela and people who left or you know,

1216
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 2: fled fearing political persecution or fearing that their you know,

1217
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 2: their capital was going to be taken by the revolutionary

1218
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 2: government or whatever. Like I mean, there's very clear ideological divide,

1219
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 2: just like with the Cubans, Cuban community. We could put

1220
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 2: let's put f war up on the screen, just to

1221
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:40,840
Speaker 2: try to attach some data to this drop site shared

1222
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:43,800
Speaker 2: this polling trying to get a hold This was before

1223
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:48,360
Speaker 2: the kidnapping of Maduro. But as would be predicted, there's

1224
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 2: a huge divide between Venezuelans in Venezuela, of whom a

1225
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:56,720
Speaker 2: majority fifty five percent were opposed, twenty three percent supported

1226
01:00:56,760 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 2: some sort of foreign military intervention, and twenty two percent unsure.

1227
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 2: And people that the Venezuelan expat community. So in this

1228
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,840
Speaker 2: other poll, they we don't have the screen for it,

1229
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 2: but an Atlas Intel poll from October that was published

1230
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 2: by Bloomberg and it's a Brazil based polling firm. So

1231
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 2: sixty four percent support for US military intervention among Venezuelans abroad,

1232
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 2: so like the Venezuelans in Miami who were celebrating, whereas

1233
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 2: only thirty four percent among Venezuelans living in the country.

1234
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 2: So significant political divide between you know, the people who

1235
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 2: are there in the country and the people who have

1236
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 2: left for any number of reasons. And it's also just

1237
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:41,080
Speaker 2: worth remembering. Look, when we had our mission accomplished moment

1238
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 2: in Iraq, there were people who were genuinely celebrating. I mean,

1239
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 2: there were you know.

1240
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 3: These people, thousands of iraq millions of Iraqis were like, wow,

1241
01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 3: this is great. Uh they even I forget the zach

1242
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 3: Fras and Arabic that people chanted in the streets of Baghdad.

1243
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 1: And then what happened.

1244
01:01:56,880 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 3: I mean even in Afghanistan, Yeah, there are a lot

1245
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 3: of people who didn't want to be rule by the

1246
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:04,480
Speaker 3: Taliban that didn't they also had their own problems that's

1247
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 3: the just the reductive nature which we talk about this.

1248
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:11,520
Speaker 3: It is amazing to me, and that is why we

1249
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:13,520
Speaker 3: were talking about the journalism thing. It's the same on

1250
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 3: foreign policy. I mean I truly realized this under Afghanistan,

1251
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:18,440
Speaker 3: when all of MAGA was like, oh, we should have

1252
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 3: stayed for I was like, oh my god. I mean

1253
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 3: it's all bullshit. It's just fake in terms of like

1254
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 3: a lot of the ways that people will approach their

1255
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 3: overall commentary. But I see it here now too. Oh,

1256
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,960
Speaker 3: I'm like the triumphalism. I mean, nothing has changed. And

1257
01:02:32,000 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 3: what's even crazier to someone like me is to roll

1258
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:38,600
Speaker 3: the clock to read the quotes at the time of

1259
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 3: the Spanish American War of the Philippines and like the

1260
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 3: you know, raw raw nature that went and then those

1261
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 3: were disasters for America. Dan Carlin, if you probably have

1262
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 3: to pay for it at this point, he has an

1263
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 3: amazing four hour episode on just like the history of

1264
01:02:56,840 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 3: the US Imperial kind of project back at the time.

1265
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:02,000
Speaker 1: Go listen to it. Seriously.

1266
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:06,280
Speaker 3: I mean, nothing has changed. It's amazing, and I guess

1267
01:03:06,320 --> 01:03:10,120
Speaker 3: we're just doomed to repeat our mistakes over and over

1268
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 3: and over again.

1269
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, Some of these people have no principles, They

1270
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 2: believe in nothing. They will flip their positions on a

1271
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 2: dime and have absolutely no shame about it. Five seconds

1272
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 2: ago were like, no, I mean Tulcy Gabbard, right, and

1273
01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 2: she's in the administration, but she was explicitly against regime

1274
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 2: change in Venezuela and now nothing nothing, And so many

1275
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:32,120
Speaker 2: of these right wing influencers were no more forever wars,

1276
01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 2: no more regime changed wars, no foreign interventions, put America first.

1277
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 2: And then the minute this happens, they flip on a

1278
01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 2: dime and it's like, let's go, we love this, this

1279
01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:44,440
Speaker 2: is great, this is based et cetera, just zero principles.

1280
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:45,120
Speaker 1: I think it's bad.

1281
01:03:45,320 --> 01:03:47,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, I'm not so sure you know

1282
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 3: if the other side were in power that things would

1283
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 3: be all that different, But I mean I think that's

1284
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 3: part of the issue, right.

1285
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:55,840
Speaker 2: I don't know, all right whatever, I mean, Biden didn't

1286
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:58,480
Speaker 2: connam Maduo. I mean, Biden actually tried to do some

1287
01:03:58,560 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 2: deals with him in fairness, Yeah, but.

1288
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 1: He kept the twenty five million dollar bounty, never kept the.

1289
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, there was not a full back, full rollback of

1290
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:10,200
Speaker 2: the sanctions. But we also didn't have for USAID. Don't

1291
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:13,840
Speaker 2: have a kidnapping yea, and direct attacks on the Ford.

1292
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:17,520
Speaker 3: USAID dollars encouraged millions of Venezuelans to come here, you know,

1293
01:04:17,640 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 3: cause a massive migration crisis, probably most responsible for Trump's victory.

1294
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:23,480
Speaker 1: Like it's not you know, his hands are not clean.

1295
01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:24,960
Speaker 1: You know, sure it didn't kidnap it.

1296
01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:25,919
Speaker 4: Okay, Okay, I can't.

1297
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:29,480
Speaker 1: But they're the same, Okay, but you kind of blameless.

1298
01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:32,960
Speaker 2: I'm not saying they're flameless, but like, let's be real,

1299
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 2: this is of a different nature, like brazenly being like

1300
01:04:36,280 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 2: we're taking the oil, we're kidnapping their leader. We're coming

1301
01:04:38,800 --> 01:04:41,120
Speaker 2: for Cuba, we're coming for Columbia, we're coming for Greenland,

1302
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 2: We're coming from Mexico.

1303
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:43,440
Speaker 4: That is different.

1304
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:45,600
Speaker 1: I didn't say that at all.

1305
01:04:45,720 --> 01:04:48,840
Speaker 3: It was more talking about like left wing Democratic Party influencers,

1306
01:04:48,880 --> 01:04:50,640
Speaker 3: Like whenever a Democrat is in power, I don't think

1307
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 3: they're necessarily like so principled.

1308
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I'm not.

1309
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, So we agree. All right, we'll see you.

1310
01:04:56,640 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 4: Gray Sisson will be backing whatever Democrats do.

1311
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:02,480
Speaker 3: What I mean, I may not be on the show tomorrow.

1312
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 3: My kid got very sick. So we might have to

1313
01:05:04,640 --> 01:05:06,440
Speaker 3: do a follow up with the doctor. Emily may be

1314
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:08,720
Speaker 3: in place for me, but if she is, then I'll

1315
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 3: swap with her on Wednesday. So regardless, someone will see

1316
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 3: you tomorrow and they'll see you then