1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on. 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 2: Applecarplay and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power. 7 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we start today with 8 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 3: our focus on the Pentagon. A late scheduled news conference 9 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 3: by the Secretary of State had a lot of folks 10 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 3: thinking we were going to hear about an authorization for 11 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 3: a military strike, knowing that the Pentagon has been formulating 12 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 3: plans for a response to the deadly attacks on US 13 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 3: troops in Jordan just days ago. There was some insight 14 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 3: brought by the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, his first 15 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,599 Speaker 3: time standing in front of cameras since coming back from 16 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 3: the hospital after a lengthy stay of course surgery for 17 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 3: prostate cancer, and he likely made more news talking about 18 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 3: the way that was handled than anything else. Lloyd Austin 19 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 3: again holding forth with reporters, and we want to bring 20 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,639 Speaker 3: in Nick Watdams, who of course runs our national security 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 3: team here at Bloomberg. It's good to see you. Next, 22 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 3: the impact of this news conference on his tenure, He 23 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 3: says he was not prepared to resign, but he apologized 24 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 3: to the American people and to the President of the 25 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 3: United States. Did he just put this behind him? 26 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 4: I think he has now put this very much to bed. 27 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 4: It was an interesting press conference because everybody had really 28 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 4: been waiting for sort of proof of life, if you will, 29 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 4: him coming out and just saying, listen, I screwed up. 30 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 4: I mean, it was so obvious what happened here. He went, 31 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 4: he was hospitalized, he had prostate cancer surgery. He didn't 32 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 4: tell the president about that. He was then hospitalized for complications, 33 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 4: didn't tell anybody about that for five days, and then 34 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 4: he was hospitalized for two weeks. 35 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: This is a big deal. 36 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 4: I mean, if you if you had a subordinate in 37 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 4: the military who hid from his superiors that he was 38 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 4: being hospitalized for he was in the ICU, you'd get 39 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 4: fired for that. And he was actually asked that very question, 40 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 4: you know, and what would your response be? And his response, 41 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 4: I mean, he was in full groveling mode. Basically, Listen, 42 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 4: I screwed up. I apologize directly the president, but he 43 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 4: had no intention of resigning, and then, as you mentioned, 44 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 4: you've got all the potential for strikes against Iran, Syria, Iraq. 45 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 4: So it was a clever pivot in a way because 46 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 4: he's saying, listen, I screwed up. But by the way, 47 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 4: look at all this really important stuff that we have 48 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 4: to do right now. Yes, and he's signaling he's very 49 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 4: much going to be in control of that response. 50 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 3: Interesting opportunity, I guess, to address the news at hand 51 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 3: and also maybe try to get around what was a 52 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 3: bit of a scandal, if we can call it that, 53 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 3: certainly a controversy surrounding the secretary in terms of what 54 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: we learned very little about apparently imminent strikes against Iranian proxies, 55 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 3: if not Iran itself. The strike will be multi tiered, 56 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 3: he said, echoing what we've heard from John Kirby so 57 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 3: far right. 58 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 4: So, I think what you're seeing as this administration signaling 59 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 4: we may get action imminently, but it's not going to 60 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 4: be the last of it. We're still trying to, frankly, 61 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 4: sort of puzzle through this strategy because they are essentially 62 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 4: telegraphing to Iran and all these groups over there that 63 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 4: this is coming, and so why is that. You know, 64 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 4: there has been a suggestion out there that it's part 65 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 4: of some sort of back channeling with Iran, but you know, 66 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 4: it is an interesting strategy, he said. You know, the 67 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 4: enemy is not prone to taking one and done sort 68 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 4: of actions, and neither am I and I also have 69 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 4: a lot My guns are a lot more powerful than 70 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 4: theirs are, basically, so he's he's sort of suggesting, Look, 71 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 4: this is coming, and what you see in the next 72 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 4: days is not going to be the last word on 73 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 4: this from President Biden. 74 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 3: Are we surprised he wasn't announcing a strike. Do you 75 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 3: have any sense of timeline what you're hearing? 76 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 4: Well, you know, generally speaking, when they do these strikes, 77 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 4: they tend to do them at night in the target area, 78 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 4: so that's evening our time. At least, that's what happened 79 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 4: when they struck Yemen, when they struck the Huthis and Yemen, 80 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 4: So you would anticipate that it would happen in the 81 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 4: night time. I mean, everybody is just on high alert. 82 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 4: We had some indications that it would happen last night 83 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 4: that didn't pan out. But I think what they're signaling 84 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 4: very clearly is there will be some sort of strikes. 85 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 4: There's a CBS News report today saying in Iraq and Syria, 86 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 4: Iranian assets in Iraq and Syria very unlikely that they 87 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 4: would do strikes on Iran itself for fear of provoking 88 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 4: that wider war they say they want to avoid. 89 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 3: I know your team is mawfy busy right now. I 90 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 3: appreciate you're coming to talk to us here. As always, 91 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 3: Nick watams with us here on Bloomberg, who runs our 92 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 3: national security coverage here in Bloomberg's Washington bureau. More on 93 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 3: the CBS News report that Nick mentions, because this is 94 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 3: the most information that we've seen so far where officials 95 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 3: are confirming, as I read to the news organization, that 96 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 3: plans have been approved for a series of strikes over 97 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: a number of days against targets. Remember this multi tiered 98 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 3: approach the secretary was talking about. They include Iranian personnel 99 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: and facilities inside Iraq and Syria. This, of course, following 100 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 3: the attacks over the weekend in Jordan that claimed the 101 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 3: lives of three US troops. We had the voice now 102 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 3: of Holly Dagris of the Atlantic Council runs the Middle 103 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 3: East Programs program, where she is a Senior Fellow and 104 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 3: It's great to see you, Holly. Welcome to the table 105 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 3: for being with us today on Bloomberg. I'm not sure 106 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 3: your thoughts you watched the Secretary today at the Pentagon. 107 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 3: Did we learn enough on an official level about what's 108 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 3: happening here? And how come I'm reading battle plans in 109 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:38,239 Speaker 3: CBS News. 110 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 5: I mean, I think there was more focus on the 111 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 5: secretary's health. If there sure was, then there was actually 112 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 5: on the recent events. 113 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 3: Is that the real purpose of this news conference? 114 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 6: Then? 115 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 5: I felt like it was so given that that was 116 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 5: most of where the conversation was was addressing that and 117 00:05:54,800 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 5: the status of his administration at the Pentagon. But unpacking 118 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 5: a bit of what you said about the CBS CBS 119 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 5: News report, I think there's a lot of frustration. Why 120 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 5: is this so publicized that the United States wants to 121 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 5: hit back these Iran Bakshia militias in Iraq and Syria 122 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 5: and so publicly and even talking about weather being an issue. 123 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 5: And I think that the frustration is, well, not just 124 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 5: is this so public, but the fact that we're also 125 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 5: hearing reports that IRGC top advisors in Syria are actually 126 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 5: leading the country. 127 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 3: Are we telegraphing plans for a reason. Is there a 128 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 3: strategy behind this or is they're just news leaking out 129 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 3: of the Pentagon. 130 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 5: That is a very interesting question you asked. I think 131 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 5: definitely we have to remember that the worry is this 132 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 5: becoming an escalation that could potentially lead to an all 133 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 5: out war since the October seventh attack by Homas, the 134 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 5: terrorist group, and so I think you're getting a mix 135 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 5: of both that this is deterrens. Hey, this is what 136 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 5: we're going to do, do not escalate. And you're also 137 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 5: hearing from Kataya Hesbala, the Iran Bakshia militia that has 138 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 5: been more or less as responsible for the killing of 139 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 5: three US servitus members in northeastern Syria, saying well, we're 140 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 5: going to reduce our presence. We're not going to be 141 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 5: attacking US forces in the region. So I think it's 142 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 5: a two way messaging going on right now. 143 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 3: We've heard that this was the Islamic Resistance in Iraq 144 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 3: responsible for the attack in Jordan, at least according to 145 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 3: reports here. Give us a sense you're an expert on 146 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 3: these so called proxy groups. What are these relationships like? 147 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 3: Are these wholly owned subsidiaries, are they loosely connected to Tehran. 148 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 3: How does this work? How does this network happen? 149 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 5: So the Islamic Resistance of Iraq is a new umbrella group, 150 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 5: but it essentially is made up of Iran Bakshia militias 151 00:07:56,080 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 5: that we've known prior, including Kataiyaphusbola. These groups are trained 152 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 5: and armed by Iran, they get their money. They do 153 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 5: have their own agency to an extent. So whether Iran 154 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 5: gave that exact order to kill three US service members 155 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 5: is unclear, but. 156 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 3: The president those says they supplied the weapons. We can 157 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 3: take that as a point. 158 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 5: Of fact absolutely, And that's where I was saying, that 159 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 5: they do train and arm them. So I think by 160 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 5: proxy it is in the hands of the Islamic Republic 161 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 5: that they had a role in this, I think, Well, 162 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 5: not that I think, but the fact is that their 163 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 5: modus operandi is that they want US forces out of 164 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 5: the region and they want the destruction of Israel. And 165 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 5: so this attack on Sunday was part of that calculation 166 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 5: that if they pushed the United States enough on several fronts, 167 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 5: which is attacking our troops and bases, that will withdraw 168 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 5: from the region. 169 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 3: This was seen as a win to try to get 170 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 3: the US to retaliate. From their view, are they in 171 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 3: constant communication with their organizers, if I can use that 172 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 3: term in a on or do these groups savertise and 173 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 3: act on their own once they're trained and armed. 174 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 5: Well, they definitely have visits from the irgcro Force commander 175 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 5: and they do interact with Tehran. They're part of something 176 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 5: even wider called the Resistance Access, which is Iran's proxies 177 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 5: in the region. So whether it's the hooth He Rebels 178 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 5: and yemen Lebanese Hasbolah Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and 179 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 5: the Gaza Strip and of course the Shia militias in 180 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 5: Iraq and in Syria, so and of course the Basha 181 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 5: Ala sad Rashim and Syra. They are all part of 182 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 5: this big entity. And so they are getting some directive 183 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 5: from Tehran to an extent because they're all on the 184 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 5: same page with their m. 185 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 3: You just rattled off a half dozen groups that some 186 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 3: of our listeners and viewers maybe have never heard of. 187 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 3: How many are there? 188 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 5: And so I would have to sit there and count, 189 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 5: but there are that many, Yeah, because even under the 190 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 5: Islamic Resistance of Iraq, they're smaller Shia and so there's 191 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 5: at least half a dozen there at least. 192 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 3: You mentioned the Asad regime. To what extent do they 193 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 3: play into this, Well. 194 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 5: The Asad regime, of course, they didn't have an exact 195 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 5: role here. But what's important to note is that our 196 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 5: forces or troops are in Syria because of the fight 197 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 5: against ISIS, and there's been a lot of push from 198 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 5: these players that the US withdraw its forces, and I 199 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 5: think that would be seen as a win. But my 200 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 5: sense is that the Biden administration will probably double down 201 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 5: on US troops in the region, even though there's been 202 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 5: push for obviously for them to leave. 203 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: You're hearing battle plans where we started our conversation here. 204 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 3: If this is in fact the course that we take, 205 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 3: and I guess this could take days or weeks, but 206 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 3: going after Iranian personnel and facilities inside Iraq and Syria 207 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 3: as opposed to Iran itself, what's the response to our retaliation? 208 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 5: Well, this is a shadow war. It's been a shadow 209 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 5: war for forty five years. 210 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 3: This is to stay that way. 211 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 5: Really, It really depends, I think the fact that we've 212 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 5: openly and obviously decided we weren't going to actually go 213 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 5: in and attack Iran on Irani and soil, whether it 214 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 5: be its nuclear program, its defense facilities, or the IERGC itself. 215 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 5: I think that's telling that it won't escalate for the 216 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:31,959 Speaker 5: time being, but I think it's always worth noting that 217 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 5: miscalculations happen and there's always room for escalation, especially in 218 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 5: the context of the regional tension. Since October seventh. 219 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 3: You mentioned the nuclear program, how likely it might be 220 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,559 Speaker 3: a cyber attack or something that would be non traditional. 221 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 3: We've seen this happen before. 222 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 5: Yes, Actually, I thought in my initial assessment among attacking 223 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 5: Iran Bakshia militias in Iraq and Syria and the ERGC itself, 224 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 5: that we would actually see cyber attacks in additional US 225 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 5: sanctions on IRGC affiliated entities. 226 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 3: To what extent could we set them back with a 227 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 3: cyber attack? Wouldn't that be actually much more costly for 228 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 3: the Iranians than going after proxies in other countries. 229 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 5: It can it will delay their nuclear program, but not 230 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 5: just cyber attacks, but actual other instances. We saw allegedly 231 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 5: Mussade being behind some sabotage of times over the years 232 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 5: and have slowed down Uron's nuclear program. But unfortunately, what 233 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 5: it also did push it more underground, so that meant 234 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 5: it would be harder to actually penetrate if there were 235 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 5: an attack on Iranian facilities. 236 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 3: We're talking with Ali Dagris of the Atlantic Council about 237 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 3: what might come next here, as we heard from the 238 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense a bit earlier today, a multi tiered strike. 239 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 3: It could start, according to our national security team, as 240 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 3: soon as tonight. We're told this is not going to 241 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 3: be shocked in AWE that you're going to read about 242 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 3: some strikes. Maybe you'll see grainy video from from a 243 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 3: surveillance drone. Is that what you expect? Or do we 244 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 3: want to shake up these players? 245 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 5: That's a great question. I think that they want to 246 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 5: send a harder response than usual because we have a 247 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 5: history of already doing such actions in the region, and 248 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 5: it's an Iraq and series, so I think they want 249 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 5: to send a wider messages him around. But will it 250 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 5: deter Irani and proxies in the region. I would say, now, 251 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 5: so this tip. 252 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 3: For tat continues, then do you worry about any domestic 253 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,079 Speaker 3: terrorism or kind of ancillary damage that could come from 254 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 3: this in. 255 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 5: The United States? 256 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 7: Yeah? 257 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 5: No, I don't think that this would trickle back to 258 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 5: the United States. I think it will just stay in 259 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 5: the region. 260 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 3: A direct attack on Iran would be a different story, wouldn't. 261 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,199 Speaker 5: There that I can say? That would be a much 262 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 5: more complicated story. 263 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 3: How about that? I bet you're pretty busy right now, 264 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 3: and I appreciate your coming in to spend some time 265 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 3: with us and share insights from the Atlantic Council's Middle 266 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:57,599 Speaker 3: East programs. Senior Fellow Holly Dagris great to stay in 267 00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 3: touch with us here on Bloomberg because this is a 268 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 3: story that we're going to keep a close beat on 269 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 3: here throughout the day and of course the weeks ahead. 270 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 3: It's not going to end anytime soon as we try 271 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 3: to assemble the pieces here on a story that brings 272 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 3: us halfway around the world. With news today from the Pentagon, 273 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 3: our thanks again to Nick Watdams. Coming up next, we're 274 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 3: going to turn to the campaign trail and insights from 275 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 3: Mohammed Unis, the editor in chief at Gallup. He's with 276 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 3: us in studio. 277 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 278 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroid 279 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: Oro with the Bloomberg Business ad. You can also listen 280 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 281 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 282 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us year on Bloomberg, Balance of Power, 283 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 3: on the radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube. I'm 284 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 3: Joe Matthew in Washington with new numbers on the campaign 285 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 3: trail today. We'll start with South Carolina only because we've 286 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 3: been waiting weeks since the fifth of January for a 287 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 3: new reading on this What was the Emerson poll? Today? 288 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 3: Washington Post Monmouth University finds not good news for Nicki Haley. 289 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 3: The numbers have barely budged, and this sample was taken 290 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 3: after Iowa and New Hampshire. Nicki Haley thirty two percent 291 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 3: in her home state, Donald Trump fifty eight percent at home, 292 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 3: which she calls sweet home, South Carolina, with three weeks 293 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 3: to go here, a pocket full of money but no 294 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 3: real path. According to most of the experts that we're 295 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 3: talking with, it's a big question about what happens if 296 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 3: she cannot win her home state. Donald Trump leading among women, 297 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 3: among men, and among all age groups in this poll. 298 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 3: More where this came from. On the other side of 299 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 3: the campaign, of course, Joe Biden is running for reelection 300 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 3: here with a real problem when it comes to the 301 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 3: economy connecting the dots. Although we have seen some improvement here, 302 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 3: but my goodness, third year job approval average looks second 303 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 3: worst according to new numbers from Gallup. And I'm glad 304 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 3: to say we're joined by Gallup's editor in chief, Mohammed Unis, 305 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 3: with us at the table here. It's great to see Mohammad. 306 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 3: Thanks for coming over. Oh, it is great to be here. 307 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 3: This is this is just not good for Joe Biden 308 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 3: as he's looking at now, immigration top the economy in 309 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 3: terms of most urgent issues for voters. He's losing on 310 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 3: both absolutely. 311 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 7: And you know, I'll start let's start with the economy. 312 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 7: You know, I love to say the economy in presidential 313 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 7: election choices for the American public, it's not just king, 314 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 7: it's King, Queen and bishop. 315 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 3: The economy is everything. Yeah, when you look. 316 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 7: Back historically into all of the modern era presidents, how 317 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 7: people felt about the economy, in addition to approval ratings 318 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 7: were the most important thing, not only in how they voted, 319 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 7: but also in what they said they cared about when 320 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 7: they came to vote. So right now, that's actually a 321 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 7: relatively positive point for President Biden in our economic confidence 322 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 7: and next we ask monthly how Americans do about the 323 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 7: economy today and how it's doing into the future. It's 324 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 7: been the second consecutive month of improvement for him, so 325 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 7: it's still negative twenty six out of time, and he's 326 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 7: got time. And of course, as you all know here 327 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 7: at Bloomberg, the economy can really change for period period. 328 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 7: A big part of President Trump's story was how COVID 329 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 7: wiped out the economy now and it became very very 330 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 7: much a different pathway to him seeking reelection. In January 331 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,120 Speaker 7: of twenty twenty two, he had a fifty percent approval rating. 332 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 7: It was he was doing really well because people felt 333 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 7: really good about the economy despite the politics. 334 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 3: You look at thirty nine point eight percent job approval, 335 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 3: you're referring to history that teaches us that in re 336 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 3: election cycle were underwater. How much time does he have 337 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 3: to pull this above fifty percent? Is that where he 338 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 3: needs to be to keep his job? 339 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 7: And let me just correct, President Trump was not at 340 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 7: fifty percent approval. He was at fifty percent of people 341 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 7: that said he should be re elected. 342 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 3: Got it. So at that. 343 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 7: Point in his presidency, he was doing really well President Biden. Today, 344 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 7: thirty eight percent of Americans say he should be elected. 345 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 7: We looked at his three year average his approval on 346 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 7: the three averages. 347 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 3: Thirty nine point eight. 348 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 7: He's behind every single president except Jimmy Carter at this 349 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 7: point in their presidency. So just to give you a 350 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 7: sense of how far behind he is. That being said, 351 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 7: a lot of those presidents led in times that were 352 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 7: far less partisan than today. 353 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 3: Okay, And it's really. 354 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 7: Hard for either a Republican or a Democrat to get 355 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 7: people from the other side to approve of the job 356 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 7: they're doing. And this dates back to President Obama. It's 357 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 7: not a Trump era dynamic. 358 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 3: We'll talk to me more about that, because I don't 359 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 3: know how you do your job anymore. When people are 360 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 3: having fun trying to mislead pollsters, when samples are being 361 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 3: challenged by cell phones, no landlines anymore, we don't always 362 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 3: know who we're talking to, it seems, depending on the poll. 363 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 3: And I'll let you speak for Gallup. But this job's 364 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 3: not getting easier as we go forward. 365 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 7: It's absolutely not. But one of the things that is 366 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,120 Speaker 7: actually amazing and hasn't changed is that with a really 367 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 7: good RDD national sample get a really accurate measure of 368 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 7: how the country is feeling. 369 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 3: We were talking a little bit about state. 370 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 7: Poles a second ago, and it's important to understand that 371 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 7: with a state pole, it's a far more challenging to 372 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 7: really get a representative sample. The other thing, I think, Joe, 373 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 7: just as your listeners and viewers start consuming more political 374 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,719 Speaker 7: news about the election, the notion of aggregating polls is 375 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 7: really useful and fun to deal with. It's very useful 376 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 7: in the financial world. Of course, with indicies, it's not 377 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 7: a great or accurate way to assess where the public 378 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,640 Speaker 7: is on an issue because a lot of those poles 379 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 7: are gathered with different methodologies. Online polls are great for 380 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 7: certain purposes, they've proven to not be so great for 381 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 7: national assessments of the political testing waters. Our methodologists have 382 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 7: worked year in and year out to really test these 383 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 7: tools because essentially all of these methods are really tools, 384 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 7: and they're very useful. But it's about what's the right 385 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 7: tool to fix or you know, the right squeaky wheel. Yeah, 386 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 7: and with national politics, it's about having a really good 387 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 7: national phone poll. 388 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 3: How many people do you need to call to get 389 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 3: a single valid response, what's that racial that's a great question. 390 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 7: So our polls tend to run around about one thousand respondents. 391 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 3: Okay, sure. 392 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 7: The hard part is only about six to seven percent 393 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 7: of people actually complete the polls, so you need to 394 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 7: call far more people. Fascinatingly, though, with the proper statistical 395 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 7: methods and waiting and all of that, you're able to 396 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 7: actually get a very accurate sample or read on the 397 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 7: public even with that low level of a response rate. 398 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,239 Speaker 7: The other I think misnomer is that that response rate 399 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 7: continues to drop dramatic. Actually it's held pretty flat now 400 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 7: for a long time. 401 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 3: Okay. 402 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 7: So we have a series of ways that we actually, 403 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 7: you know, test our own accuracy. We stopped forecasting elections 404 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 7: back in Romney Obama, but we absolutely test to see 405 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 7: how people would have responded to that question and what 406 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 7: the actual popular vote turnout is. We do that every election, 407 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 7: and it's been remarkable how accurate it is. And it's 408 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 7: no secret if you are a member of the of APOR, 409 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 7: kind of the association of public opinion researchers in the US. 410 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 3: A lot of this is. 411 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 7: Debated, written about in peer review journals. So for those 412 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 7: of us in this space, it always I think baffles 413 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 7: us to note how the public is having a conversation 414 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 7: about the polls. You can't trust them about that. Yeah, 415 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 7: it depends on the poll. It really does depend on 416 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 7: the pole. 417 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 3: Well, it certainly doesn't. We really do try to talk 418 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 3: about methodology when we report these numbers. But this is 419 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 3: a fascinating peak behind the curtain with the editor in chief. 420 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 3: You're at Gallup. We're in a primary season. We saw 421 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,479 Speaker 3: in Iowa and New Hampshire that immigration was far and 422 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 3: beyond the number one issue for Republican voters. What's that 423 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 3: going to look like when we get to the general 424 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 3: It's only going to grow. 425 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:47,880 Speaker 7: Immigration is the. 426 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 3: So it's not just the economy stupid for the balance 427 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 3: of this campaign. 428 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 8: It's not. 429 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:51,719 Speaker 1: So. 430 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 7: It's a matter of so. Life is multidimensional, right, and 431 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 7: so is voting. So the way we ask the question 432 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 7: is what is the number one issue that's the most 433 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 7: important for you? That's always the economy, It always pans out, 434 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 7: But we also ask a lot of other questions. One 435 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 7: of the questions we ask every month is what's the 436 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 7: most important problem facing America. 437 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 3: You could say your. 438 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 7: Favorite serial name, or you could mention a policy issue. 439 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 7: The number one issue for Republicans is immigration. I think 440 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 7: it's one of the most underreported stories in our times today. 441 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 7: And it's not just Republicans, you know, considerable like twelve 442 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 7: plus percent of people at the national level a saying 443 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 7: immigration as the situation at the border worsens, which I 444 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 7: think from your reporting and others, it seems like it 445 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 7: it continues to do that. It is absolutely going to 446 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 7: be a major topic, particularly among the Republican Party. It also, 447 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 7: if you'll permit me, we've perfectly ties into the most 448 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 7: important issue for Republicans generally. And we did a thirty 449 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 7: year analysis of what are the issues that where there's 450 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 7: the most partisan divide on in America. The number one 451 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,919 Speaker 7: issue is the power of big government, and you can 452 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 7: see how the issue of controlling the border ties fees 453 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 7: right into that concept philosophical. 454 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,640 Speaker 3: So many controversies in Washington right now, Really, do we've 455 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 3: got a deal? We're told the verge of a deal 456 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 3: in the Senate that's dead on arrival. In the House, 457 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 3: Donald Trump says, no deal. It looks like this could 458 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 3: be crashing into the rocks here. What does that do 459 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 3: to congressional approval ratings? Didn't you look at this not 460 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 3: that long ago, what are they at twelve percent er? 461 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 3: I mean, this is. 462 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 7: Desperately absolutely a good month for congressional approval ratings is 463 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,959 Speaker 7: for it to not be in the single difference, which 464 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 7: is it's funny, but it's also kind of scary and sad. 465 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 3: It really is. That being said. 466 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,719 Speaker 7: That being said, so will you re elect Joe Biden? 467 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,199 Speaker 7: We also ask will you realize do you think that 468 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,479 Speaker 7: most members of Congress should be re elected? 469 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,199 Speaker 3: In that same po crue to form, this is just 470 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 3: a few more few. 471 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 7: Days ago, yep, twenty four percent of Americans say that 472 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 7: most members of Congress should be re elected. But and 473 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 7: a really important dimension to this is when you ask 474 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 7: them about their member of it's overwhelming, right, it's like 475 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 7: a nearly six and ten, and that's just. 476 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 3: Don't mess with my guy exactly. And that goes for 477 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 3: the economy as well. We've seen in some polling right 478 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 3: where people are feeling better about their local economy. The 479 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 3: question is when you connect the dots there on a national. 480 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,119 Speaker 7: Level, yes, and the big issue there is inflation. So 481 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 7: even though that ECI number has improved. What we also 482 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 7: found in the same poll, sixty three percent of Americans 483 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 7: are still saying that price increases are causing them financial hardship. 484 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 7: That actually has now plateaued since this whole inflation thing began, 485 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 7: what was it two years ago now, So that hasn't improved. 486 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 7: You know, you report a lot on the Federal Reserve 487 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 7: and the real interest rate. 488 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 3: We talk inflation every day. 489 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 7: Of course, absolutely, I've learned most of what I know 490 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,920 Speaker 7: from their reporting, but from the public's perspective, it's still 491 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 7: just as bad. It hasn't improved at all. 492 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 3: Because they're looking at prices from before COVID, and we're 493 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 3: talking about just slowing the rate of inflation, not actually 494 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 3: turning the clock back. And you wonder if that ends 495 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 3: up happening in the next year, you're going to be 496 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,639 Speaker 3: walking in here with much better No, I can only 497 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 3: assume for Joe Biden, but we'll find out together with 498 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 3: Mohammed Yunis love talking to you. Thanks for coming in. 499 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 500 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern. 501 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 2: On Appocarplay and then Rounoro with the Bloomberg Business app 502 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,160 Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 503 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 2: us live on YouTube. 504 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 3: Live from the nation's capital. Kaylee lines is off today 505 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 3: as we dissect news from the Pentagon in a late 506 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 3: scheduled news conference happened late this morning with not a 507 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 3: lot of notice. Lloyd Austin in front of reporters, standing 508 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 3: for the first time since his visit to Walter reed. 509 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 3: Of course, he had an extended hospital stay of following 510 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 3: complications that were tied to prostate cancer surgery. He did 511 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 3: apologize for that. He apologized to the President and to 512 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 3: the American people for the lack of communication surrounding his stay. 513 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 3: But he also spoke to what was anticipated to be 514 00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 3: an announcement It wasn't really so much of retaliatory following 515 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 3: the deadly attack on US forces over the weekend in Jordan. 516 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 3: He did promise multi tiered strikes, and we've heard this 517 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 3: line before from the Pentagon and from John Kirby at 518 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 3: the White House at the time of our choosing. But 519 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 3: there is reporting more deliberately from CBS News today that 520 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 3: plans have in fact been approved for a series of 521 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,360 Speaker 3: strikes over a number of days against targets i e. 522 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 3: Multi tiered, as the jargon indicates, they would include Iranian 523 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 3: personnel and facilities inside Iraq. And Syria, not to be 524 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,239 Speaker 3: confused with Iran itself. And that's where we start our 525 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 3: conversation with Michael Allen, Managing director partner Beacon Global Strategies. 526 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 3: Has had a long career in national security, including time 527 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 3: in the National Security Apparatus in the White House two 528 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 3: thousand and seven through nine. It's great to see you, Michael, 529 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 3: Thanks for being here. Thank you for We're going to 530 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 3: see military action tonight. 531 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 6: I think it's tonight or tomorrow night as I understand it. 532 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 6: It's weather dependent. But I think it's time for the 533 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,399 Speaker 6: United States to go ahead and take the strikes. The 534 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 6: clock is ticking. They took a hit at us, of course, 535 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 6: over the weekend, and I think it's part of re 536 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 6: establishing deterrence against Iran that we're able to swiftly try 537 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,399 Speaker 6: anyway to put them back in their place. I'm a 538 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 6: little worried that we've telegraphed the punch so much that 539 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 6: a lot of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard figures have gone 540 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 6: back home by now. 541 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 3: What do you make of that? Was this leaked on purpose? 542 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 3: Is there some telegraphing going on here? Ers the Pentagon 543 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 3: talking in a way that it shouldn't be. 544 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 8: I think they are telegraphing. 545 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 6: They did it against the Houthy strike, They've done it previously. 546 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 8: I think in their minds. 547 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 6: They believe it's a way to de escalate the crisis, 548 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 6: but is something But to me, what they need to 549 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 6: be doing is trying to re establish deterrence, which would say, 550 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 6: let's do something swiftly and overwhelming, not to cause a war, 551 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 6: but to cause a change in the calculus of the 552 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 6: Iranian leaders to where they say to themselves, you know what, 553 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,119 Speaker 6: the United States isn't messing around anymore. If I'm on 554 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 6: the receiving end from European powers or whomever of a warning, Hey, 555 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,960 Speaker 6: at a SHOT's coming. We don't want to hit your people, 556 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 6: maybe just your equipment. I'm thinking to myself, Okay, I'll 557 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 6: batten down the hatches tonight, but right back at you tomorrow. 558 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 3: So why not strike Iran directly? Why not sink the 559 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 3: Iranian navy? 560 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:24,360 Speaker 6: Yes, so, I think that would be a disproportionate response. 561 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 6: I'm a sort of in favor of a disproportionate response 562 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 6: to re establish the turns. Maybe not inside of Iran proper. 563 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 6: Maybe we saved that for a later because I think 564 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 6: it would be incredibly escalatory if we hit inside of Iran, 565 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 6: especially when we've got so much else going. 566 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 8: I mean, I'm not unalterably opposed to it. 567 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 6: I would want to understand what the targets were, and 568 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 6: perhaps if they were IRGC intelligence facilities, it would remind 569 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 6: me more of President Reagan hitting the intelligence services in Libya, 570 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 6: and I would get more comfortable with it. 571 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 8: But yeah, they need to. 572 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 6: Lean forward a little bit. I think the thesis of 573 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 6: the administration is overcaution. They're overcautious and what arms they 574 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 6: give to the Ukrainians and they're being too over cautious 575 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 6: when we talk about the Iranians. 576 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 3: So with what we know, if it is in fact 577 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 3: striking targets within Iraq and Syria, are these air strikes, 578 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 3: are they cruise missiles? What would be the menu of 579 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 3: options here the Pentagon's looking at. 580 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 8: I think all of the above. 581 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 6: Certainly a few cruise missiles, but I think they will 582 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 6: definitely put some F sixteen's and other munitions. 583 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 3: Type in launched from allies in the Middle East. We 584 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 3: have plenty of bases, plenty of places over there. Cutter, 585 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 3: I think we have cutter. We've got even places in 586 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 3: the UAE and would we be then drawing them into this. 587 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 6: I think we would have to get their permission in 588 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,960 Speaker 6: order to take off from those bases and make sure 589 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 6: they're okay with it. I think they would be okay 590 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 6: with it. But speaking of permission, I mean it's if 591 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 6: we hit inside Iraq, generally we're supposed to at least 592 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 6: talk to the Iraqi government about I don't think we 593 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 6: did a few weeks ago, which is part of the 594 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 6: reason why the Iraqi government wants us to move out. 595 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 8: Or we're beginning discussions on how to move out the troops. 596 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 6: But that has a big That'll be an interesting story tonight. 597 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 6: Did we hit inside of Iraq and did we get 598 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 6: permission or. 599 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 8: Did we just do it? 600 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 3: With that said, talk to me about this place, Tower 601 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 3: twenty two. It's in a critical location, essentially the intersection 602 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 3: of all three countries that's Rock and Syria and Iran. 603 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 3: That wasn't by accident. That's what it happened there was it. 604 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 8: It wasn't by accident. 605 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 6: I think they thought that this would be a less 606 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 6: protected facility because we the United States, probably saw Jordan 607 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 6: as a safer place to be, certainly compared to Syria, 608 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 6: which is just generally. 609 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:48,959 Speaker 8: Lawless and dangerous. 610 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 6: But you know, this is where I wish the president, 611 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 6: not as a Republican or a Democrat, but would I iterate, 612 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 6: what is the national interest? Why do we have these 613 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,479 Speaker 6: troops in Syria in the first place? And the reason 614 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 6: is it's ISIS and the rise of terrorism. We don't 615 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 6: want them to come back and be able to re 616 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 6: establish such a power to be able to hit us 617 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 6: back in the United States. 618 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 8: Again. 619 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 6: Tower twenty three was there to help support that mission 620 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 6: inside of Syria. So I hope tonight if the President 621 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 6: addresses the nation around the time that the strikes are launched, 622 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 6: he'll make it clear to everybody that, hey, this is 623 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 6: part of a US counter terrorism mission. 624 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 8: We aren't there just for fun. 625 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 3: Yes, so this should be coupled with the presidential address. 626 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 3: In your view, I think so hearing that would happen. 627 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 3: I had not. 628 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 8: I think it should happen. I don't think the. 629 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 3: Oval Office as a venue very often. Does this justify it? 630 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 8: I think it does. 631 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,719 Speaker 6: I think this is a significant escalation by Iran when 632 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 6: they've killed three soldiers. I think he has to lay 633 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 6: out our strategy again. You know, I worked for President Bush, 634 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 6: but I think even Democrats appreciated it in the second 635 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 6: term when he would go out and explain the Iraq policy, 636 00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 6: even if they didn't agree with it. You have a 637 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 6: duty to tell the American peace pople. 638 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 8: And hope Biden does that tonight. 639 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting. He's going to be flying around the 640 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 3: country here a little bit, but he would be back 641 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 3: in time to address the American people, and it does 642 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 3: seem like it would be a time to follow up 643 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:18,560 Speaker 3: on his address about Ukraine and Israel. It's another dangerous 644 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:19,960 Speaker 3: world speech for this president. 645 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 8: We have a lot going on. 646 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 6: I know we're all eager to, you know, as we say, 647 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 6: pivot to China because they are the big threat over 648 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 6: the next generation. But we keep getting pulled back in, 649 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 6: to use the phrase from the Godfather, into the Middle 650 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 6: East and of course into Europe. World wars start in Europe, 651 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 6: which is why we need to do a better job 652 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 6: and get over our misgivings about funding the Ukrainians. But 653 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 6: we also need to be more serious about trying to 654 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 6: put Iran in a box. Doesn't have to mean war, 655 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 6: but they need to know that we have a backbone 656 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 6: here so that they'll slow down on their nuclear program 657 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 6: and slow down on their proxy terrorist warfare in the region. 658 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 3: The Islamic Resis distance in Iraq is said to be 659 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 3: responsible for the attack in Jordan. There are at least 660 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:09,480 Speaker 3: a half dozen proxy groups we're talking about here. You 661 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 3: suggested that we need to do something to make a point. 662 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 3: Can you make a point by going after the legs 663 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 3: of the octopus here or not the head? 664 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 8: I don't think so. 665 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 6: So I think among the strikes tonight, I'm fine with 666 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 6: all these proxies, and I do believe that we need to, 667 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 6: as some people unfortunately call it, mow the grass a 668 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 6: little bit, degrade their capabilities. But I think you've got 669 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 6: to have an eye in front of one of these strikes. 670 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:35,880 Speaker 6: And for me, that's the IRGC, that is the terrorist sponsor. 671 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 6: They're the ones that deal externally from Iran and sponsor 672 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,280 Speaker 6: Hamas Hasbalah, the Huthi and of course all of these 673 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,080 Speaker 6: popular mobilization fronts that are in Iraq, and those are 674 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 6: the people we need to go after. And they need 675 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 6: to understand that the United States is can hit them 676 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:53,239 Speaker 6: and that we're serious about doing it. 677 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 3: And then the next day the Houthis attack on other ship. 678 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 6: We have to keep staying in the fight there there. 679 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 6: I'm more comfortable with a longer term campaign that just 680 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 6: degrades equipment in Yemen. Sorry, yes, absolutely in Yemen, because 681 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 6: I do believe that if we don't try to keep 682 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 6: the international waterways open, no one else is. 683 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 8: And even if we. 684 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,720 Speaker 6: May not have a direct a ship that's going directly 685 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 6: because they're going up the Suez Canal, I think nonetheless 686 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 6: that's the role of the United States for now. 687 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,480 Speaker 3: All the while we've got a hot war in Gaza. 688 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 3: A Prime minister doesn't seem to want to take advice 689 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 3: from the United States right now. They've begun, at least 690 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,440 Speaker 3: acknowledge now that they've begun flooding the tunnels beneath Gaza 691 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 3: Hamasa's tunnels with seawater, and we're getting an eye roll 692 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 3: here on talk of a peace deal. You made the 693 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 3: point we're spending a lot of plates right now. The 694 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 3: Secretary of State said, this is a dangerous moment for 695 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 3: the Middle East. Are we focused enough on what's actually 696 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,239 Speaker 3: happening inside Israel in Gaza while we try to deal 697 00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 3: with the rest of the region. 698 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,320 Speaker 6: I wish we would give a little bit more time 699 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 6: to the Israelis to finish the job in Gaza. I 700 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,799 Speaker 6: understand that things are controversial. I understand that it's been 701 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,160 Speaker 6: an unfortunate civilian loss of life, but they've just gone 702 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 6: through their equivalent of nine to eleven. We would not 703 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,440 Speaker 6: have listened to people telling us that we can't go 704 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 6: after al Qaeda in Afghanistan or wherever the case may be. 705 00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,400 Speaker 6: I think honestly they need another month or so before 706 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,320 Speaker 6: they shift over to a over the horizon counter terrorism 707 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 6: special raid type of situation. You're right, BB is not 708 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,760 Speaker 6: listening to Joe Biden. But I think Joe Biden also 709 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,319 Speaker 6: needs to understand a little bit where they are. 710 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 3: You served as majority staff director of the House Permanent 711 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,400 Speaker 3: Select Committee on Intelligence. You've been on both sides of 712 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 3: Pennsylvania Avenue. The President's asking for help, the supplemental budget 713 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 3: request for Israel, for Ukraine, for Taiwan. It's been bogged 714 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 3: down into a border debate. Is that how this ends? 715 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 3: Or will there be a new approach from the Lindsey 716 00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,400 Speaker 3: Grahams of the world and some of the others to 717 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 3: get a stand alone funding bill for Ukraine as well 718 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 3: as Israel. 719 00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,960 Speaker 6: I'm glad you mentioned that because I think that's what 720 00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 6: Senator McConnell has been signaling for about a week, which 721 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,880 Speaker 6: is that. Yeah, it was the border language that was 722 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,680 Speaker 6: going to pull Ukraine funding across the goal line. Now 723 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,759 Speaker 6: I think it's a better chance that the border language 724 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 6: would delay the Ukraine funding. If I'm the leader in 725 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,759 Speaker 6: the Senate Schumer and McConnell, I just go ahead and 726 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,400 Speaker 6: try and throw it over to the House. Yeah, and 727 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:32,759 Speaker 6: on the wild there's some unforeseeable event that I can't 728 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 6: come up with right now that might happen in a 729 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:38,880 Speaker 6: month or two. Maybe Russia does something dramatic, maybe pressure increases, 730 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,760 Speaker 6: but then the House of Representatives then feels the pressure 731 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,000 Speaker 6: to go ahead and let it through. 732 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 8: I would put the pressure on them and go. 733 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 6: Ahead and pass it. It needs to get out of 734 00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,480 Speaker 6: the Senate. Something big needs to happen. We've let it 735 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:55,040 Speaker 6: sit there too long, and that's why everything has been delayed. 736 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,359 Speaker 3: You've spent a career in national security. Does it make 737 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 3: you nervous when focused is trained so heavily on one 738 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,319 Speaker 3: part of the world, Knowing that of Vladimir Putin or 739 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,840 Speaker 3: someone else, Kim Jong un could really take advantage of 740 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 3: a moment like. 741 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,440 Speaker 6: This, It does, you know, Kim jong un. It's good 742 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,839 Speaker 6: that you mentioned North Korea. Almost no one talks about it. 743 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 6: He has gotten more aggressive of late. He sort of 744 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:23,319 Speaker 6: changed the defense doctrine that how he looks at the 745 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,040 Speaker 6: world not so much. Hey, I'm just going to try 746 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,319 Speaker 6: to get along peacefully with South Korea, but I want 747 00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 6: to reunite the peninsula. 748 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,960 Speaker 8: It's not that he's going to do it, but he's. 749 00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 6: Building capabilities everywhere, and honestly, we here in Washington don't 750 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 6: have a great idea or a great new policy to 751 00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:40,840 Speaker 6: roll out how to deal with them. It needs to 752 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 6: be managed. Maybe more sanctions, maybe more deterrence. But they're 753 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,319 Speaker 6: problems everywhere, and we have got a lot that we 754 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,560 Speaker 6: need to follow and do well on and execute so 755 00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,360 Speaker 6: that our national interests are protected. 756 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:55,960 Speaker 3: With the Ukraine that's running out of money, even if 757 00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 3: we get this together, maybe to your point, there is 758 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 3: a new effort and a stand had alone piece of 759 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:05,399 Speaker 3: legislation that funds our allies in Kiev. Vladimir Putin has 760 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,080 Speaker 3: got to be seeing an opportunity right now. What's going 761 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,880 Speaker 3: to happen next? What concerns you the most? 762 00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,400 Speaker 6: What concerns me the most is that Vladimir Putin is 763 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:18,600 Speaker 6: going to get this entire year to reconstitute his military. 764 00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,560 Speaker 6: We've already seen plenty of articles about how they've been 765 00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 6: able to stay afloat through more manpower that they've basically 766 00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 6: kidnapped off the streets and shipped over to Ukraine, but 767 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:34,440 Speaker 6: also their capability, their defense manufacturing is starting to go 768 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,120 Speaker 6: back up again. So I think we're giving putin the 769 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,800 Speaker 6: whole year if we don't pass anything to let him 770 00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:44,840 Speaker 6: rebuild and retrench and re establish his force so that 771 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 6: he might be able to move westward again next year. 772 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,120 Speaker 6: So that's why another reason why we need to get 773 00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 6: this Ukrainian funding done as soon as possible. 774 00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,359 Speaker 3: Are you surprised that the White House, with the help 775 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,720 Speaker 3: of Mitch McConnell, has not succeeded in making the argument 776 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,440 Speaker 3: the national security argument for the United States When we 777 00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:06,360 Speaker 3: talk about Ukraine, you hear not another dollar for Ukraine. 778 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,800 Speaker 3: Our borders before their borders is kind of the refrain 779 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:15,480 Speaker 3: from the Freedom Caucus types. Despite deliberate messaging, classified briefings, 780 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,080 Speaker 3: they don't seem to be breaking through. 781 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,480 Speaker 6: I am surprised because I think we're losing our way. 782 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,880 Speaker 6: I don't know if it's populism, I don't know what 783 00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 6: it is, but we all know here in the age 784 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:30,319 Speaker 6: of geopolitical competition, that Russia is our number two adversary. 785 00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,960 Speaker 6: And if anybody in the national security community had been 786 00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,440 Speaker 6: approached three years ago and said, if you want to 787 00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,840 Speaker 6: pay two point five percent of your annual defense budget 788 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,399 Speaker 6: and we will degrade the Russian army by a year 789 00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,360 Speaker 6: two or more and force them to bring out tanks 790 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 6: that were from World War Two, would. 791 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:48,520 Speaker 8: You take that deal? 792 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 6: You absolutely, they'd be like, I don't even know why 793 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 6: you're asking such a ridiculous question, But of course we 794 00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,680 Speaker 6: should do that, not because we have just some ancient 795 00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,080 Speaker 6: beef with the Russians and the old Soviet but because 796 00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,120 Speaker 6: it's in our national interest. And I wish the President 797 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:08,319 Speaker 6: would step forward and articulate national interest reasons why we 798 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:09,200 Speaker 6: need to stand tall. 799 00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 3: Michael Allen, a great conversation. Thank you for being with 800 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,280 Speaker 3: us a voice of experience when it comes to national 801 00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,520 Speaker 3: security that we wanted to bring to you here on Bloomberg. 802 00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 3: Thanks for joining today and stay in touch. Thanks for 803 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,400 Speaker 3: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 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