WEBVTT - Dockworkers and Geopolitics and Their Impact on Markets 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:14.880 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney along 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:17.240 with Tom Keene. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:20.760 the best in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:24.439 also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.760 Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.400 from seven to ten Eastern Remarked Global headquarters in New 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:33.720 York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.800 anywhere else you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.839 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business Apps. Checking with 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:40.400 Jay Haffield. 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.400 He's plays in this part of the rod a lot. 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:45.640 Jay Haffield is CEO, founder and portfolio manager at Infrastructure 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:48.880 Capital Advisors. Jay, I know your long career, You've long 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:51.839 looked at, invested in thought about China. What do you 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:54.840 make of some of the recent moves by this Chinese 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.200 government to try to reinvigorate its economy. 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:00.640 Well, we've actually been more op a mystic about the 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:05.360 Chinese economy for a while for really two reasons, and 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.000 that is that, first of all, everybody ignores the fact 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:11.000 they save forty five percent of their GDP. We talked 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.000 to you folks who are talking about that, do we No, 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.880 we do not do that my personal account when we 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:20.080 were talking about or you were talking about before, you know, 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.039 our fiscal irresponsibility. So we save about twenty percent of 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:26.800 our GDP China forty five. They can invest that badly, 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:29.480 like say ten percent and get a five percent growth. 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:32.319 So everybody kind of ignores that focus just on property. 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:36.320 But we've also been thought actually that this would occur 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:39.280 because there's one and really only wanted advantage of a 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:42.679 centralized economy. That is, if you have a crisis, you 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:45.160 don't have to have Congress arguing about it and saying 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:48.200 it's a bailout. It's just a bailout, and it happens 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:53.080 big and anybody complains, you know how plays consequences. So 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.040 when they decided to deal with this, which is just 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.240 I guess a week ago, you get this kind of 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.240 power rally. I noticed a CSI is on. We have 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:02.440 nine percent, so it's cooling off a little bit for 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:06.920 the days. But so that's the key is a lot 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:10.280 of money to put to work and a powerful central 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:13.079 government that can solve the problem and also pretty tight 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.399 monetary policy up until now, so it's not like they've 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.080 been super loose and now getting even looser. 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.560 You know, I talk about a crisis. I'm very curious 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:22.960 about why this moment as we head into this holiday, 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:24.520 but why they decided to do this now? And then 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.079 you talk about that savings rate and we're well acquainted 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:29.560 with the kind of property crisis we've seen across the country. 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:31.760 How difficult is it going to be for them to 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.160 change what are here kind of economic and cultural habits 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:37.080 of the country to get them to spend more and 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:38.839 to deal with this property crisis. 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:41.960 Well, I think that actually it all came from policy 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:45.880 in the first place. It's really a crackdown on wealthy, 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:50.919 influential people, which the party thought was a threat to 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:54.240 their power, and so they just were running with that, 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.359 and then at some point they realize, oh, yeah, that's right, 0:02:57.400 --> 0:02:59.519 people do care about economic growth, or we do care, 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:03.200 so we have to come back to that. So it's 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:06.120 really just authoritarian flip flop. 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:11.240 So how does a politics figure into this, because I mean, 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:15.040 I would think that the Chinese economy really cannot fully 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:19.359 recover without really aggressive trade with the rest of the world. 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.480 How do they think about the US and the rest 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:24.639 of the West in terms of trade, because it just 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.280 seems like if you just provide some stimulus, that's not 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.600 going to get it done well. 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:32.360 I would still go back to if you've saved forty 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:35.280 five percent, you can paper over a lot of problems. 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:39.360 And so there is going to be pressure from additional 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:45.760 trade restrictions, particularly if Trump becomes president. But it's important 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:47.920 to note that if you have a physical and monetary 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:50.120 policy firing, you can deal with a lot of the 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.040 problems on the trade front. 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.080 You mentioned if Trump wins. Let me just get your 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:57.120 perspective on the election here in the US and sort 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:59.680 of how you're thinking through what may or may not 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:01.360 happen to hear in the next couple of six weeks. 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:04.200 Six weeks to go here, and there's a lot between 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.640 now now and then. How are you framing or thinking 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.120 about the election and the impact it's going to have globally. 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.520 We're not far off from your prior guests. Maybe we 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:14.280 get there a little bit differently. We're not polsters, so 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.120 we look at gambling ons as are sort of markets. 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:20.159 If you look at the chumulated probabilities, you get the 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.640 same close to the same result as your prayer guests. 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:27.360 Twelve percent chance of a Republican sweep, eight percent democratics, 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:32.200 or it's eighty percent. Eighty percent is good in our situation. 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:36.000 Our political situation, you want divided government. Each side kind 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.799 of fights the other spending, so you have less spending, 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:42.360 less change. We don't want an increase in corporate taxes. 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:46.520 That's a terrible economic policy and it's terrible for stocks. 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:50.880 So democratic sweep, irrespective of politics, wouldn't be good for 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:52.360 the stock market in the short run. You get a 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.360 lot of capital gains harvesting, which we normally don't get, 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:57.480 so you would get a really weak market and a 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:02.520 democratic sweep. Case it's only eight percent, so we're focused 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:05.320 on the eighty And we still have a six thousand target, 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:09.120 which looks too conservative right now, but we're not going 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:11.920 to raise it because it's already pretty aggressive. It's twenty 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:14.239 one and a half times next year's earnings. 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:15.279 Thirty seconds left. 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:18.000 You still like the banks we do, We think you 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:21.599 should be out on the risk curve, so that's banks reads. 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:26.599 Tech is probably going to underperform on the fixed income side. 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:29.159 Preferred stocks are likely to continue to do well. They've 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:32.680 been doing really well, so take more risks, go out 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:35.920 on duration because all these global rate cuts are very 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:37.919 powerful and drive global rates lower. 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:41.240 Next time you walk in the studio, just say preferred stock, 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:43.360 and we're gonna do a whole semeon referred stock because 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:46.040 we never talk about stocks. Yes, it remind me because 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:47.520 I used to make a lot of money selling those 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:50.400 things back in the day, and nobody talks about them anymore. 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:52.800 I guess I know interest rates is zero forever. So 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:57.040 j Hatfield, CEO, founder and portfolio manager Infrastructure Capital Management, 0:05:57.120 --> 0:06:01.280 appreciate coming in studio. Talk to your public relations persons 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:14.480 about timing that holding. So anyway, Henrietta tres Joints is 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:18.480 managing partner in Vada Partners. Henrietta, what moves the needle 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:21.120 if anything between now in November? 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:26.520 Fifth, great question. We really only have one predictable event 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:30.080 left and that is tomorrow night's vice presidential debate between 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:33.840 Jadie Bance, who is currently over ten points underwater in 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:38.000 the favorability ratings scale, and Tim Waltz, who is ahead 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:40.839 by about three and a half points. So I'm expecting 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.520 a more of attention on turning out the vote as 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:47.480 opposed to specific policy prescriptions out of the ninety minute 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.159 to bate tomorrow night, I imagine they're going to try 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.200 to not just reach voters for watching in real time, 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:55.320 but all the ones who will catch up the next 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.520 day on social media with the memes and everything. That 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:03.200 I'm anticipating is really just expecting a meme worthy event 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:04.600 more than a policy heavy event. 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:08.440 A meme worthy event, Henriette, how much does this debate matter? 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:11.760 I think back on past vice presidential debates and more 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:16.160 conventional campaigns often sandwich between presidential debates. Seems like we're 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:18.560 not going to get another one of those. How much 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.040 does this matter? And let's take each of the two 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:23.400 candidates in kind, what does each have to do on 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:24.800 stage tomorrow here in New York? 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:27.840 Yeah? I don't think that. Based off what we saw 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.040 on the first presidential debate, which has a lot more 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:31.880 at stake, there wasn't a ton of movement in the 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.400 polls following. People did get to learn about Kamal Hyris's 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:40.200 policies and they were received favorably, and the most memorable 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.200 moment of the night was probably Trump saying, you know, 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:46.320 eating the cats, eating the dogs, something along those lines 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:49.040 is more of what I'm expecting to come out. Tim 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:53.760 Wallas is the most non understood, least known candidate on 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:56.720 the field versus JD Vance, and so I think that 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:00.400 there's potential for him to lose vote share and see 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:06.120 that plus three percent favoritability rating drop. That's usually what happens, 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.320 people like you less after a debate than they saw 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:10.600 you before. That's not the case that we saw with 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.000 Kamala Harris. But there is a lot of room for 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.480 Waltz to go in either direction, whereas JD Vance's numbers 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.600 are pretty baked in and then been very consistently underwater 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.360 since he got into the race. Negative ten, negative thirteen 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:24.960 and thereabout. So I think jd Vance is the most 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.760 to gain tomorrow night, and Tim Watz is at risk 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.520 of becoming more well known and then therefore less popular. 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.120 So that's probably the starting point I'm going to go 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:34.440 into it with Henrietta. 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.680 I saw over the weekend that Kamala Harris raised fifty 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:41.280 five million dollars in California fundraisers. Does that even matter anymore? 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:43.400 I mean, I just don't know how you appeal to 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:45.920 those five to ten to fifteen million voters that suppose 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:47.280 are going to decide this thing. 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:50.000 Yeah, I was actually just looking at the numbers and 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:51.559 I have to read them a couple of times. The 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.440 Harris Waltz campaign raised two hundred and eighty seven million 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:59.360 dollars in August versus eighty five million for the Republican ticket. 0:08:59.840 --> 0:09:03.800 There is this huge deluge of an enthusiasm represented by 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:08.800 these numbers. But what I would anticipate and what I 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:10.720 focus on a lot, because I think it's more important 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:13.120 for the tax bill is where that money is being spent, 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:15.320 and a lot of it is trickling down ballot. So 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.400 you see Republicans now defending Senate seats where they should 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:21.360 otherwise have no business spending money. States like Texas and 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:25.160 Florida for example, even Iowa and then you in Nebraska 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:28.480 would be another example, and then down ballot even further 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.040 on the House side. The Democrats have just expanded the 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:35.400 map into non swing states, into states and districts where 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.760 maybe Biden one, but maybe Harris is potentially going to 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.520 pick up tiny little pockets in the population. And that's 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.400 her campaign strategy. Go into the suburbs, go into some 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:48.320 of the rural areas, whether it's in Pennsylvania or North 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:50.920 Carolina or Georgia and really try to speak to voters 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:52.840 exactly where they are. So think of the money not 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.960 in terms of what it can do from a big 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:59.280 picture perspective. You know, everybody's already bought their ad campaigns, 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.360 but think about how it fuels up a gas, fuels 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.600 up the gas for a tour bus for House and 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:08.320 Senate members to go on tour in their districts. That's 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:10.360 where all that money's being plowed into, and that's going 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.679 to be the difference between a split ticket excuse me, 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:15.480 split control of Congress next year, or a suite for 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:16.400 one party or the other. 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:18.719 The Harris campaign spending an average of seven and a 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:21.520 half million dollars a day in August compared with two 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:25.560 point six million a day Donald Trump hender. You mentioned 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:29.200 the tax bill. How are you thinking through the likelihood 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:31.559 of there being significant changes to the tax code. You 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:34.319 mentioned that debate between Vice President Harris and former President 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:37.959 Trump in Philadelphia, and we got more economic policy points 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:40.680 from her on the heels of that. So much of 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:44.600 this hinges on who's in Congress, what the dynamics there are. 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.640 Walk us through sort of how you're thinking about that 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.520 amidst all this uncertainty at the presidential level. Looking, how 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:53.560 should we interpret what these two candidates are saying about 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:54.920 taxes in light of the fact that they're going to 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.800 have limited power to do much without Congress. 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:01.080 Well, I'm going to be kind of aggressive here and 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:05.600 say the two sides are not far apart at all, 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.320 and the election outcome I think is going to be 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:12.640 pretty easy to translate to tax policy. Here's why. If 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:15.720 Trump wins with ninety percent odds, I anticipate he'll have 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:19.360 a Republican Senate and with sixty percent odds they'll have 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:22.040 a Republican House, So that's one party control. All of 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:24.320 the tax peds will be extended at their current rates. 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.360 I do not think the corporate tax rate will drop, 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.040 there are not enough votes for that. The United States 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:29.720 set at the salt cap will go to twenty k 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.800 or thereabouts. We will not repeal the IRA tax credits 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:36.120 for manufacturing, et cetera, et cetera. On the Democratic side, 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:38.920 if Kamala Harris wins, I still have ninety percent ods, 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:40.840 the Senate is going to be Republican. What happens in 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.800 that universe exactly what happened in twenty ten, you get 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:46.720 a two year extension of all the existing tax breaks 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:50.120 for every income bracket. You raise salt to maybe forty 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:53.079 sixty K, you provide a child tax credit which is 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:56.200 in about another trillion dollars, and you maintain all the 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:58.040 IRA tax credits. That's going to be your bill of 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.960 Kamala Harris wins. The idea where Democrats have a sweep 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.920 control is only a ten percent prospect in my opinion. 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:07.840 So effectively, what I'm saying is, no matter what happens 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:09.400 at the top, you're going to get a two year 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:12.000 extension at a minimum of all the existing tax breaks. 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.200 That's a blueprint that we've had all year long. It's 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.920 not that confusing. It seems really clear to me. So 0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:20.040 that's what I'm expecting next year. We'll deal with the 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.199 debt ceiling first, and we'll send the second half of 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:24.400 the year on taxes. Pass it in late December, and 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:27.199 everything will be extended for two years out of minimum. 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:28.600 No equivocating their pall. 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.360 I mean, that's why Henrietta is the best. I mean, 0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:34.520 I mean, it makes it pretty clear here Henrietta. I mean, 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:39.079 from a political perspective, does anybody care about the debt 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.080 and the deficits and things like that, or from a 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:43.920 political perspectives, that just the third rail and there's no upside. 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:47.679 They sure don't, you know, you look at the policies 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.000 that have been enacted, not just since COVID, but going 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.400 back as I went back to twenty ten. There's just 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.320 not a concern about the deficit and federal spending right now. 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:58.040 I have this conversation a lot with foreign clients where 0:12:58.040 --> 0:12:59.839 they're saying, you know, surely America is going to get 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:01.880 learned about this, and then you come over to the States, 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.280 and American investors do not follow this nearly as much 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.000 as overseas investors. And I can promise you that in 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.240 a campaign, an electioneer, Democrats and Republicans are not thinking 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.480 about on Capitol Hill, the scenario where Harris wins and 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:17.520 we get a two year extension of everything means that 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.439 in that interim two years twenty six and twenty seven, 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:24.800 we have another round of fiscal negotiations around as Simpson 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:29.320 Bulls asked, bipartisan deficit reduction compromise, And unfortunately, I'm going 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.440 to default to the base case, which is that even 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:34.199 after those commissions are organized, nothing changes. 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.480 We see Donald Trump heading back to Wisconsin. He was 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:39.080 there last week. He's going to go there again on 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:42.199 Tuesday after a stop in Georgia. Kamala Harris out in 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.440 California then in Las Vegas. She's going to go visit 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:46.840 FEMA headquarters today. After what happened over the weekend with 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.480 the storm in the southeast. What would you if you 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.560 were running these two campaigns. We know what the swing 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:54.560 states are, the five six swing states. What would you 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.000 be prioritizing at this point? It's interesting, just kind of 0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:00.080 divine based on their travel where these campaigns think they 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:01.320 need to be spending the most time. You talked about 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.040 Pennsylvania a little while back. It seems like that is 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.280 the magnet that is drawing them back to Pittsburgh over 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:08.840 and over and over again. Where should they be focusing 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:10.760 on this point? And how resonant do you think their 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:13.880 message is when you look at that kind of granular level, you. 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.280 Know, instead of repeating something that is very fair but 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:20.080 often stated by people watching the polls, Pennsylvania's critical. The 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.200 money that Harris has raised allows her to, you know, 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:25.880 juice up a tour bus and go to the different 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:29.520 suburbs and rural areas of Pittsburgh and the outlying areas 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:33.160 and really turn out her margins where possible there but 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:37.720 to tie into the hurricane those the hurricane went straight 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.680 through a Republican voter war path and it is decimated 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:46.800 huge swasps of the country in that exact area. I 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:48.600 think that the Trump campaign should spend a lot of 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.560 energy talking about mail and balloting to those voters who 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:53.640 don't have the infrastructure and will you know, will be 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.680 busy rebuilding their homes and maybe not available to give 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:58.560 a vote on the first Tuesday in November because of 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.160 the destruction that the hurricane is. I would spend all 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.920 my resources on shoring up those boats that are already 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.640 locked in for the Trump campaign but now are very 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:08.640 much at risk of just not showing up because of 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:09.960 the destruction that just occurred. 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:12.480 Wow, all right, Henriette, I think I appreciate your tying 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.040 all that in for us. Henrietta Treds managing partner Veta 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:18.000 Partner's Boy. From my perspective, usually is nobody better and 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:24.800 kind of bringing it all to the front. Here. Looks like 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.760 we're going to have some labor strife on the eastern 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.920 docks here in ports along the East Coast and Gulf here. 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:35.400 It just doesn't seem like these two sides are making 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.000 any leeway or any headway in terms of these discussions. 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.520 Get the latest reporting from Danny Berger. She's a host 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.360 of Bloomberg Television. Danny, I see you stand and there 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.480 are folks on YouTube can see you standing at a 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.880 dock somewhere that is ground zero for these discussions. What's 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:50.680 the latest reporting. 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.840 I'm at one of the busiest docks. I'm in Newark, 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.920 and docks like this have been preparing for a strike 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:03.840 at the strike of midnight tonight. They've been extending hours 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.680 because by all accounts, this will go ahead. There are 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:10.400 no current talks scheduled between the Longshoreman Association, that is 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.120 the union that represents the Eastern and Gulf ports and 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.280 the employers. There are two main disagreements that this is over. 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.080 One is about pay. They want a significant pay rise 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:23.080 from eighty percent over the next six years. The current 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:26.520 offer on offer, they say, is stingy. The second thing 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:29.240 they want is they do not want automation. They want 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.640 things written into the contract that says that there will 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.360 not be more automation on the docks, akin to what 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:38.160 we have in Asia. In Amsterdam, now, the workers here, 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.440 they do have significant leverage at this moment. For one, 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.480 they have an administration that is friendly to labor, and 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.040 they also have a supply demand issue. There are not 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.600 enough people who want to do these jobs, so they 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.160 have the kind of leverage that, ironically, in the first place, 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.120 is why so many of these docs want to automate 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:55.120 a lot of these jobs. 0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.800 So what's the latest here, Danny? Where are these two sides? 0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:02.680 I mean, this sounds like they're not even close here. 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:04.480 What are the next steps really? 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.520 So they are far apart. You're completely correct, they're so 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.560 far apart that there are no talks that are scheduled 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.880 for this moment. Some of the steps that we have 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.320 seen that's kind of occurring in the background is the 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.040 administration trying to mediate this. Again, the administration is in 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:25.240 a catch twenty two. They want the union support, so 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.280 they don't want to step in and prevent this strike 0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:29.440 from happening, but at the same time they don't want 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.600 the economic damage. So the strike will happen twelve oh 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:38.040 one am on Tuesday, then talks will presumably happen. Now, 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.560 most by most accounts, experts we speak to think that 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:42.439 this will only last for a few days. There is 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.800 significant pressure here considering the money, the economic impact that 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.919 is at stake. But again the Longshoreman Association say that 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.360 they are ready to quote the head of the long 0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:56.600 Shoreman's Association. He says that a sleeping giant will be 0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:58.359 awakened come tomorrow morning. 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.000 All right, Danni, thank you so much for joining us. 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.919 Danny Berger hooset to Bloomberg Television Live reporting from the 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:17.360 docks in lovely Newark, New Jersey. I was over in 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:19.800 the Motherland, over in Ireland last week, seeing the people, 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:23.200 seeing the family. Apparently the Bank of I mean Japan, 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.520 the PBOC was pretty active last week, David, and I 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:29.000 think that's good news. It's certainly good news for folks 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.200 that own Chinese stocks like Ali Baba. But what does 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.359 it mean here? Amanda Rabella joins us. She's had of 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:36.840 x tracker sales us on shore at DWS Group. She 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.359 joins us here in studio. Amanda, thanks so much for 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:42.119 joining us here. Again, what did you make from the 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:44.119 PBOC last week and what they're trying to do to 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:45.760 the Chinese economy here? 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.440 Yeah, absolutely, it's really interesting. China is something that we're 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.560 always speaking about X trackers. So we launched the first 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:57.480 A shares you know, direct holdings of the China shares 0:18:57.760 --> 0:19:01.600 with the West Nasset Manager almost years ago actually in 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:03.879 Europe and also in the US as well, and so 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.919 we've now become like the default for that exposure. So 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.160 we were pretty busy to stay the least on Friday 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:14.440 and actually today as well. PBOC on Tuesday they announced 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.240 a number of stimuli which were then effective as of Friday, 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:18.960 so we saw a really big jump in the market. 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:20.960 I think all of us know that China has been 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.160 really out of favor for international investors for the past 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:26.600 couple of years. In particular, was definitely a darling, but 0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:29.240 I would say post pandemic has never really kind of 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.000 got back to where it was. Obviously, we've seen the 0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:36.000 cut in projections regarding the target GDP growth that the 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.280 government has been expecting historically was around six and a 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.199 half percent came to about five percent. But there's been 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:45.119 a lot of cynicism from Western asset managers western investors 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:47.200 over the past couple of years about whether the five 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.240 percent was actually achievable, and so what we saw on 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:55.199 Friday effective was some changes in rates policy more broadly. So, 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:59.960 first of all, we saw decreases in the reserve requirement ratio, 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:03.000 and then we also saw a cut in the seven 0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:05.639 day reserve rate as well. What these two together have 0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:09.240 done is that actually it's injected the Chinese economy with 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.960 one trillion new one which is now available for investment, 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:16.400 and the market received that pretty well. So we actually 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:21.040 saw on Friday the market the CSI three hundred increased 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:23.400 by just shy of four point five percent, and then 0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.240