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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: As the White House turns the knife on a group

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Speaker 2: of very sleepy, i'll say hungover journalists from a White

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Speaker 2: House correspondence dinner weekend with an eight thirty am press

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Speaker 2: briefing at the White House. And guess what we're doing

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Speaker 2: it again tomorrow, says Caroline Levitt. Yes, Scott Bessett will

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Speaker 2: be the guest of honor tomorrow morning eight thirty as

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Speaker 2: they throw the one hundred day party at the White House.

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Speaker 2: And that's coming with as you typically would see, you know,

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Speaker 2: a series of high profile interviews, big events. Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: going to be in Michigan tomorrow night do in a

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Speaker 2: campaign style rally. Can't imagine how late that's going to go,

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Speaker 2: but we'll have it for you here on Bloomberg. Time

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Speaker 2: magazine had the Big interview last Friday. Today the Atlantic

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Speaker 2: Interview dropped. Fascinating to read through these the quote that

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Speaker 2: jumps off the page from the Atlantic. Think about this

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Speaker 2: one hundred days in the first time, Donald Trump said

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Speaker 2: I had two things to do, run the country and survive.

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Speaker 2: I had all these crooked guys, he told the Atlantic,

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Speaker 2: going on to say, quote the second time, I run

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Speaker 2: the country and the world. That's a direct quote, remembering,

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Speaker 2: of course, run the world. We're still waiting to hear

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Speaker 2: on reciprocal tariffs of the ninety day review period that

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Speaker 2: will last until July, and the market's apparently going to

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Speaker 2: be guessing until then with references to trade deals that

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Speaker 2: we have not seen emerge yet in a series of

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Speaker 2: negotiations that were told are underway, but governments from Beijing

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Speaker 2: and beyond tell us that they're not even in touch.

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Speaker 3: With the White House.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of questions that were at asking on

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Speaker 2: this Monday that we were asking on Friday and will

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Speaker 2: likely still be in the second hundred days flurry of

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Speaker 2: polls over the weekend. And I'll tell you what they've

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Speaker 2: been busy at ipsos, because we've talked about them from

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Speaker 2: last week. With another new batch of numbers coming out today,

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Speaker 2: really interesting to see the approval rating here and then

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Speaker 2: specific ratings on issues that are so close to this

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Speaker 2: White House that are dear to the president, from immigration

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Speaker 2: to the economy, and we have a great opportunity to

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Speaker 2: unpack some of these numbers with Cliff Young, the president

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Speaker 2: of ipso's Public Affairs, a good friend of the broadcast.

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Speaker 2: And it's been some time, Cliff. It's not a campaign season,

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Speaker 2: but it's nice to see. I hope you're doing well.

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Speaker 4: It's great to be here on this lazy Monday.

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Speaker 2: It does feel kind of like that, right where is

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Speaker 2: every week your time?

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Speaker 3: Put your elbows up on the barrel?

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Speaker 2: I don't know, apparently waiting for tomorrow's press briefing. I

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Speaker 2: want to start with approval ratings. We saw one as

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Speaker 2: low as thirty nine. I think you came in at

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Speaker 2: forty two at ipsos on your most recent round here

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Speaker 2: or your aggregate. What does that tell us about this

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Speaker 2: president at this point in time, because the superlatives have

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Speaker 2: been flying. We haven't seen an approval rating this low

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Speaker 2: this early in one hundred years or something.

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Speaker 3: What's the truth here?

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Speaker 4: Well, Trump has always been lower than the historic average.

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Speaker 4: Where we live in highly polarized times. He's a highly

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Speaker 4: polarized individual, So I think that's less telling, And what's

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Speaker 4: more telling is the decline. It is normal for any

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Speaker 4: administration to lose creds, to lose some people as they

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Speaker 4: make decisions. Honeymoon ending exactly exactly. The historic average over

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Speaker 4: the last seventy years is a three point decline. Trump

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Speaker 4: is at six points, and so he's outstripping the average,

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Speaker 4: you know, by about twofold or so. What does that

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Speaker 4: mean specifically? You know, we have to wait and see, obviously,

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Speaker 4: but I would characterize it with one word friction. There's

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Speaker 4: friction around the edges. It doesn't matter what the policy

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Speaker 4: area is. The administration is bumping up against public opinion.

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Speaker 2: Including immigration, which jumped off the page for a lot

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Speaker 2: of people and made some ways when you released that

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Speaker 2: poll last week.

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Speaker 3: This is supposed to.

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Speaker 2: Be the winning issue right now as he grapples with

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Speaker 2: the economy. You know, Tom Holman this morning said most

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Speaker 2: secure border in history. We're hearing reports of mass deportations.

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Speaker 2: Everybody knows what's happening in El Salvador. He says, this

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Speaker 2: is what I ran on promises, kept promises, delivered and

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Speaker 2: what did you find?

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Speaker 5: Well?

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Speaker 4: It is is Bailey Wick. He won in twenty sixteen

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Speaker 4: on immigration. He mobilized and fortified himself in twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: and twenty twenty four on immigration, and indeed it's a

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Speaker 4: signature issue. And if you look at the polling of

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Speaker 4: vast majority, super majority of Americans degree, yeah, we should

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Speaker 4: deport illegals who are criminals. Okay, but what is happening

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Speaker 4: Actually they disagree about how it's being done. It's not

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Speaker 4: fair to spirit away someone in the middle of the night.

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Speaker 4: There's a need for due process ultimately, what we're saying,

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Speaker 4: and once again I go back to my concept of friction.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing a lot of friction relative to this issue,

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Speaker 4: and Americans ultimately saying, you know, I agree in principle

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Speaker 4: with what the administration wants to do, but they're not

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Speaker 4: being fair.

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Speaker 2: That would also suggest an opportunity to improve perception if

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Speaker 2: the process changed.

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Speaker 3: Is that fair to say?

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Speaker 4: I think that's fair to say.

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Speaker 3: Endgame is popular to your point.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this doesn't mean he can't improve again, right, he

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Speaker 4: gains back those three additional decline points points of decline.

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Speaker 4: Let's say, yes, that's true. So if they modify the

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Speaker 4: way they go about operationalizing policy. Indeed, maybe Americans or

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Speaker 4: some Americans go. You know, Okay, So like they've changed

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Speaker 4: their tack a bit. They're more fundamentally fair when they're

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Speaker 4: dealing with legal immigrants. I can get behind them, but

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Speaker 4: right now that's not happening.

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Speaker 2: Economy is another big one and helped to bring Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump back to the White House. Has so much to

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Speaker 2: do with prices and inflation. And now we're watching prices

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Speaker 2: in many cases rise, We're seeing consumers anticipate further increases.

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Speaker 2: How much of this has to do with tariffs versus

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Speaker 2: everything else.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's a general sort of noise quotient. And you know,

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Speaker 4: we've done a lot of focus groups and talk to Americans,

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Speaker 4: talk to consumers, and this generalize sort of uncertainty is

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Speaker 4: not good, right, But really what's driving the dissatisfaction is

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Speaker 4: the anticipation, as you said, of tariff and more specifically inflation.

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Speaker 4: You already have household going you know what, I might

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Speaker 4: not travel in the summer with my family. Maybe I

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Speaker 4: should buy a few more rolls of toilet paper, just

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Speaker 4: to kind of stock up before things get really bad.

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Speaker 4: And so you already have anticipatory behavior in regards to

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Speaker 4: tariffs and inflation.

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Speaker 2: I thought we were supposed to be buying wine? Are

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Speaker 2: we buying toilet paper?

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Speaker 3: Again?

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Speaker 2: That's actually something that you know a lot about, going

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Speaker 2: back to the pandemic, the sort of human behavior that

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Speaker 2: kicks in when you see something coming. But that sounds

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Speaker 2: in highly emotional, doesn't it? If prices aren't actually rising

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Speaker 2: and we're making judgments on leadership based on what we

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Speaker 2: think is.

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Speaker 3: Going to happen, is that a new realm? How do

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Speaker 3: you measure that?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, we do it. We measure it by

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Speaker 4: past behaviors. Right, Okay, Yeah, we're in a realm. We're

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Speaker 4: in a moment now. That's unprecedented in some way. It's like,

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Speaker 4: how do you model that behavior? It's very rare, especially

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Speaker 4: in the American context, to have a leader, the leader

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Speaker 4: of the nation, making decisions that potentially will affect directly

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Speaker 4: the economy in your future.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and people see it in real time, Cliff. In

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Speaker 2: about two minutes, producer James is gonna call me and

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Speaker 2: tell me that we're ending this interview because we're going

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Speaker 2: live to the White House for something. Please don't do that, James.

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Speaker 2: I'm enjoying this conversation, but I'm saying that because this

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Speaker 2: is every other day around here. Okay, note he's coming out.

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Speaker 2: Now he's in the oval, and then the president will

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Speaker 2: talk for forty five minutes. You look up the wall,

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Speaker 2: all the networks take it. What kind of an impact

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Speaker 2: does that have on people making decisions in real time

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Speaker 2: or getting a phone call from somebody like you?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, uneasiness, right, you know. Once again, it doesn't seriously

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Speaker 4: impact behavior, but it impacts it around the margins. And

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Speaker 4: that's what we're seeing today. As I said, Americans are uneasy,

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Speaker 4: there's trepidation, and once again specifically, they worry about inflation.

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Speaker 2: Case in point, the title of this deck of polling

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Speaker 2: data that you gave us, this is what people see

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Speaker 2: when they hire Cliff to come in and talk to

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Speaker 2: them about what's going on. It's actually called what the

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Speaker 2: heck is going on? That's that knowing the new America

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Speaker 2: what the heck is going on? Should tell us a

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Speaker 2: lot about where we are as well. Does this not

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Speaker 2: reflect the conversations you're having with people every day?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, clients are actually asking what the heck is going on?

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Speaker 3: And what do you tell them?

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Speaker 4: We have ap plical actor that's butting up against butting

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Speaker 4: up against convention. And when you butt up seriously against

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Speaker 4: convention that creates friction and unease in humans, right, And

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Speaker 4: that's what we're seeing today. Specifically, we're seeing households changing

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Speaker 4: the behavior, anticipating potential problems, and now we're starting to

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Speaker 4: see it affect him politically with his approval ratings.

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Speaker 2: You're really getting to the Trump brand in a way, though,

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Speaker 2: aren't you right? There has any other president occupied that space.

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Speaker 4: No, you typically don't have once again, a president or

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Speaker 4: polical actor bubbling up against the extremes, testing the boundaries, right,

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Speaker 4: that that is not normal behavior. And that's why in

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Speaker 4: general Americans are at on ease.

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Speaker 2: It's also why his supporters love him, because they want

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Speaker 2: somebody to come here and break it, as they say.

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Speaker 4: You know, that's part of brand Trump to be irreverent

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Speaker 4: and sure and sort of go against the system and

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Speaker 4: break the system is broken, we have to break. You

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Speaker 4: have to break it down to build it up again.

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Speaker 2: But he's found a line, has any on the number

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Speaker 2: of people who look at the world that way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he has his base which still supports him. By

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Speaker 4: the way, it's important emphasize that point. While he's waking

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Speaker 4: on the margins his base, that his Republicans still support him,

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Speaker 4: but we will see, especially when it the economy, if

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Speaker 4: there's inflation, that will erode as well.

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Speaker 2: You wonder, and I asked this question frequently, what happens

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Speaker 2: when we consider the second hundred days the cadence? Do

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Speaker 2: we still have this news cycle that we're living in now?

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Speaker 2: Do we do the weave every day? Because these are

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Speaker 2: the things that you're suggesting or adding to consumer anxiety?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, first, we don't have a christ of all.

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Speaker 4: We don't know sure, but I do believe.

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Speaker 2: Does it start to wear off? If that is the case,

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Speaker 2: can we start to get numb to that?

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Speaker 4: Or if they get used to it?

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Speaker 6: Right?

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Speaker 4: There's part of that. I also think that Trump is

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Speaker 4: a very savvy polical actor. He sees what's happening with

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Speaker 4: all the metrics out there, not just approval ratings. And

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Speaker 4: obviously we will see, but I would expect some sort

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Speaker 4: of pullback a bit from the edges.

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Speaker 2: Interestingly, do you continue doing polling, doing sampling like this

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Speaker 2: straight through an administration? A lot of people associate you

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Speaker 2: with the campaign, and we had a normal Greape dive

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Speaker 2: with you throughout the twenty four campaign. What's Cliff Young

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Speaker 2: doing now? How as ipsos continue during a new administration.

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Speaker 4: We keep on going. Yeah, because we have clients and

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Speaker 4: stakeholders and people like you that want to know what's

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Speaker 4: going on.

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Speaker 2: Is it different than an election cycle? Sort of cadence

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Speaker 2: to it?

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Speaker 4: How do you how do you keep these We're in

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Speaker 4: the field every week. Every week, we probably have two

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Speaker 4: to four polls on different issues every week. Yeah, because

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Speaker 4: we have a lot of clients, a lot of stakeholders

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Speaker 4: that want to know what's going on.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, So the second hundred days you'll be out there.

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Speaker 2: Whether the cadence stays the same, we'll find out together.

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Speaker 2: But that approval rating technically underwater now, could be moving

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Speaker 2: throughout the next couple of weeks. Here would trade deals

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Speaker 2: be the salve that lifts all of us?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that if you know, meaning trade deals implemented,

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Speaker 4: tariffs implemented.

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Speaker 3: Actual deals. Yeah, yeah, tariffs go.

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Speaker 4: It'll all be about inflation ultimately. I think right now

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Speaker 4: we're seeing a lot of noise and public opinion reacting

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Speaker 4: to the noise, But in the longer term it will

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Speaker 4: be about whether there is effectively actually inflation.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see Cliff Young, what the heck is

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Speaker 2: going on? That's who we ask and a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a better sense now if at least what voters

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Speaker 2: are thinking about it. Find a lot more at ipsos.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn

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Speaker 1: on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 7: Thirty Washington this week. Of course, we are marking one

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Speaker 7: hundred days of the second presidency of Donald Trump, when

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Speaker 7: a lot, of course has happened. The pace has been

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Speaker 7: for neetic shock and awe has certainly been a strategy

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Speaker 7: we have seen this administration applying. And the question is

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Speaker 7: will we see anything else rounded out by the time

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Speaker 7: this one hundred day period is up. Specifically, could we

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Speaker 7: get a trade deal with one of these partners that

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Speaker 7: we are negotiating with in this ninety day window in

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Speaker 7: which reciprocal tariffs have been taken down to a ten

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Speaker 7: percent base rate. We got a little bit of an

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Speaker 7: update on where exactly we are from the Treasury Sect

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Speaker 7: Terry Scott Besson, as he spoke to reporters at the

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Speaker 7: White House earlier today.

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Speaker 8: I think it could be as early as this week

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Speaker 8: or next week. Vice President Vance was in India last

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Speaker 8: week and negotiations are coming along quite well with them.

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Speaker 8: As I mentioned, some of our Asian trading partners have

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Speaker 8: come with very good deals. We're evaluating those.

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Speaker 2: And we want to spend some time now with Anna Wong,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics Chief economist. Ana, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: The headline on the terminal here kind of says it

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Speaker 2: all s and P five hundred relief rally to meet

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Speaker 2: hard reality as tariff's damage done. We talked to you

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Speaker 2: about the prospect of empty shelves last week. The idea

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Speaker 2: of supply chains already being scrambled is the damage done.

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Speaker 6: So we're going to see a brush of data point

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Speaker 6: this week, and I would say exhibit one of the

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Speaker 6: early evidence of tariff would be in the non farm

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Speaker 6: payrolls report. So first we still expect a very shall number.

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Speaker 6: Were expecting a gain of one hundred and sixty five thousand,

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Speaker 6: which is higher than the consensus. But in the details,

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Speaker 6: you're going to see that the trade and logistics sector

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Speaker 6: has slowed down hiring significantly, and I think looking forward

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Speaker 6: to May and June's report, I think we're going to

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Speaker 6: see and part of my expression, I think a blood

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Speaker 6: bath in the in the logistics sector. So in May

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Speaker 6: and June is typically when you see trade and logistics

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Speaker 6: sector contributing to you know, one of the one of

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Speaker 6: the top three sectors in producing jobs. The first sector

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Speaker 6: that should be producing at least four hundred thousand jobs

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Speaker 6: next month is leisure and hospitality.

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Speaker 4: We also will see.

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Speaker 6: The damage of the decline in international tourists in the US,

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Speaker 6: also the decline in domestic tourism that is going to

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Speaker 6: hit hotel staffing and on all that. We're going to

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Speaker 6: see all of that in the next jobs report, but

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Speaker 6: we're going to see early evidence of that in this

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Speaker 6: Friday's job report.

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Speaker 7: Well, and when we think about logistics and kind of

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Speaker 7: the volume of transit we are seeing when it comes

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Speaker 7: to the you know, freight that's being unloaded off the

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Speaker 7: coast of California, how much would even if we get

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Speaker 7: some kind of agreement to keep talking with India and

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Speaker 7: other Asian trading partners, really matter economically If the tariffs

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Speaker 7: that China has against us and we have against China

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Speaker 7: remain north of one hundred percent. Is that not the

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Speaker 7: greatest economic impact of any thing that could could come

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Speaker 7: out of these.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right, Kayley. So if we look at as

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Speaker 6: from a forecasters perspective, if we were to forecast high

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Speaker 6: frequency trade, all it matters is the number of containership

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Speaker 6: leaving China to the US, and that has declined from

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Speaker 6: a peak of you know, seventy eighty ships per day

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Speaker 6: to now forty the last time I saw this data.

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Speaker 6: So that's not the lowest point yet. I mean, when

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Speaker 6: we look at March twenty twenty three doing the SVB collapse,

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Speaker 6: that was really low. That was when there are only

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Speaker 6: twenty ships leaving the US. So right now those data

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Speaker 6: would say that important volume will plunge. But has it

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Speaker 6: fallen down the you know, to the basement level. Not

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Speaker 6: yet however, But you're right, trade is not the kind

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Speaker 6: of thing that you can turn on and turn off.

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Speaker 6: With the reciprocal tariffs set to come online in early July,

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Speaker 6: even announcing like five trade deals between now and then,

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Speaker 6: for example of India and Japan would not be enough

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Speaker 6: to get rid of all the uncertainty that many US

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Speaker 6: firms need in order to restart shipping before July. Nice.

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Speaker 3: This is fascinating.

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Speaker 2: I'm just trying to delineate, based on what I'm hearing

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Speaker 2: you say between how much of this is psychological versus

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Speaker 2: real impact on tarift goods coming into the country and

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Speaker 2: costing more. How much of that, for instance, leisure and

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Speaker 2: hospitality number will be disrupted simply by psychology people saying,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe I won't actually take that trip.

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Speaker 6: You know, I think we're already seeing in a hard

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Speaker 6: data all of that that you know, mapping for psychology

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Speaker 6: to actually not taking that trip. It's not a hypothetical,

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Speaker 6: it's actually real. If you look at cross border data

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Speaker 6: from Canada to US, it's plunged, from Europe to US plunged.

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Speaker 6: And from hotel prices and as I mentioned previously in

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Speaker 6: the March CPI report, we saw very soft hotel, car rentals,

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Speaker 6: airfare prices, and all of that is consistent with economic

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Speaker 6: theory that the elasticity of income and demand of travel

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Speaker 6: is very high, very elastic, which means when times are bad,

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Speaker 6: people immediately start pulling back on travel.

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Speaker 7: All right, Anamoon, chief US economists at Bloomberg Economics, joining

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Speaker 7: us on all things trade and tariffs and how it's

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Speaker 7: impacting the economy. Thank you so much as always, And

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Speaker 7: we consider against this backdrop, Joe, and with the data

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Speaker 7: we have in hand from various polsters, whether or not

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Speaker 7: the White House is putting much stock in them a

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Speaker 7: different question question that shows that voters by and large

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Speaker 7: disapprove of this tariff regime and don't feel confident about

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Speaker 7: the way in which this president is handling the economy.

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Speaker 7: It does raise the question of how exactly he's going

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Speaker 7: to message around all of this when he holds a

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Speaker 7: rally in Michigan tomorrow to mark one hundred days in office.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's been quite a bit of packaging coming out

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Speaker 2: of the White House, I guess since Friday really when

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Speaker 2: the Time magazine interview was released. Today we get the

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Speaker 2: Atlantic early morning press briefing at the White House as

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Speaker 2: they really try to control the narrative here. But you're right,

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Speaker 2: we're seeing numbers on the economy sag. He's even underwater

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Speaker 2: when it comes to immigration based on the YIPSOS.

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Speaker 3: Poll that came out last week.

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Speaker 2: A lot of this has to do with the method

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Speaker 2: through which the President and the White House are executing

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Speaker 2: plans not the actual end goal. People seem to support

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Speaker 2: what he's doing with the border and immigration. It's the

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Speaker 2: way it's being handled that's turning out of these numbers.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, So we want to get more into what we

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Speaker 7: can expect to hear or should hear from the President tomorrow,

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Speaker 7: as well as other issues, including the tax policy he's

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Speaker 7: working with Congress on. And turn to Congressman Bill Hazenga,

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Speaker 7: who was joining us representing Michigan's fourth congressional district. Congressman,

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Speaker 7: Good to have you back on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 7: When we consider the visit the President is making to

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Speaker 7: your state of Michigan tomorrow, how does he need to

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Speaker 7: message around the tariffs, knowing that by and large it

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Speaker 7: does seem that these policies are making Americans nervous at

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Speaker 7: the least, and potentially affecting their actual consumption economic behavior

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Speaker 7: at the worst.

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Speaker 9: Kaylie, Good to be with you and Joe.

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Speaker 10: I think what Joe is leading into is really the point, right.

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Speaker 10: The underlying belief that we need to do something, and

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Speaker 10: something significant is what my constituency, I think, what Michigan

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Speaker 10: and what much of the country believes, and there is

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Speaker 10: no doubt that I believe he's going to go down

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Speaker 10: the path of talking about promises made and promises kept.

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Speaker 10: No one should be surprised at the direction that he's gone.

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Speaker 10: This is probably the most transparent president we've ever had

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Speaker 10: the modern era about what he wants to do and

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Speaker 10: how he wants to do it. You know, how is

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Speaker 10: he going to message this back in Michigan. I think

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Speaker 10: it's exactly that. Look, there might be some bumps in

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Speaker 10: this road, whether it's in the automotive industry, whether it's

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Speaker 10: in tourism agriculture, which are the three biggest drivers of

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Speaker 10: the Michigan economy. It's manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism. We're going

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Speaker 10: to get to the end of this tunnel, and I

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Speaker 10: think it's going to be optimistic.

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Speaker 3: Depends who you ask.

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Speaker 2: Congressman, it's great to see you, by the way, and

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Speaker 2: have you back on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: It depends on who you ask.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to the auto tariffs, and you're right

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Speaker 2: in the middle of it here in Michigan, at least,

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Speaker 2: the conventional wisdom is you ask people in the C

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Speaker 2: suites at the automakers, and they're going to give you

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Speaker 2: big thumbs down here because this hurts business.

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Speaker 3: The workers were told love it.

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Speaker 2: And Donald Trump may get an earful on that when

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Speaker 2: he's in Michigan tomorrow night.

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Speaker 3: Where are you.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, Well, to your point, the UAW has come out

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Speaker 10: and publicly supported what the president is doing. And so

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Speaker 10: I represent over on the west side of the state,

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Speaker 10: a tremendous number of the supplys that go into the

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Speaker 10: Detroit three and a lot of the other foreign badges.

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Speaker 10: And unfortunately, over the decades there had been a requirement

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Speaker 10: you had to offshore, you had to go south, you

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Speaker 10: had to co locate with some of these other plants.

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Speaker 10: Otherwise you were just like literally taken off the list.

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Speaker 10: And I've got some suppliers who fought against that and

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Speaker 10: who remained US and US only based in their production.

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Speaker 10: And they're looking around going, you know, look, this is

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Speaker 10: the right thing to do for our workers and for

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Speaker 10: the American economy. And so seeing that, whether it's Honda

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Speaker 10: announcing that they're bringing the civic back to Indiana, You've

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Speaker 10: got Stilantis, You've got GM, You've got Ford that are

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Speaker 10: all talking about altering and how they're doing their production.

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Speaker 10: Those suppliers are doing the same thing. So are there

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Speaker 10: going to be some bumps in the road. Absolutely, Is

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Speaker 10: it good in the long run? I think so. Now

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Speaker 10: the question is is how do we get through this?

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Speaker 10: And at the end of the day, based on watching

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Speaker 10: Donald Trump for four years in his first term, watching

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Speaker 10: how he operates in this term, and just knowing in

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Speaker 10: general how he operates, he is someone who is looking

439
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 10: for that deal. It is the art of the deal, right,

440
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 10: and he is not going to just simply sit back

441
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 10: and let things stay static. He does want to move

442
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 10: ahead and get to these agreements. And whether it's the Swiss,

443
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 10: whether it's Japan, whether it's India, those are some significant

444
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 10: things that are going to continue to move down the road.

445
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 10: Obviously China is going to be.

446
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: The big one.

447
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 7: Well, and we're talking, Congressman about President Trump being the

448
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 7: center of all of this. As he gets ready to

449
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 7: mark these one hundred days, he does so having signed

450
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 7: more than one hundred executive orders, having taken all of

451
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 7: this action on tariffs, despite that constitutional authority, technically relying

452
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 7: on Congress or lying with Congress, When do we expect

453
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 7: actual legislative efforts to really step up? Knowing a reconciliation

454
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 7: fight is ahead of you, Why would anyone be confident

455
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 7: that that flight fight can come to a swift conclusion,

456
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 7: given there hasn't been that much legislation coming out of

457
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 7: Capitol Hill so far.

458
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 10: We've had a few things going on, Kaylee, trying to

459
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 10: keep the government open. We've got debt ceiling that's ahead,

460
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 10: We've got appropriations that are happening. The reconciliation, the quote

461
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 10: unquote one big beautiful bill is a significant thing. I

462
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 10: had a chance to talk to the President this morning

463
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 10: briefly where we talked a little bit about what's happening.

464
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 10: My Financial Services Committee is going to be marking up

465
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 10: on Wednesday, Eden Labor is doing to tomorrow, and a

466
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 10: few others are doing tomorrow. The big ones are going

467
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 10: to be both in ways and means and energy and commerce,

468
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 10: and so there is progress that's being made on those.

469
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 10: The Senate has had to get through their appointments process.

470
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 10: That's consumed a lot of their time and effort, as

471
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 10: it should be, and so we're going to be able

472
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 10: to do this. It's going to be fast. I can

473
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 10: tell you the pace out here it ain't the pace

474
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 10: that we saw in the last four years. I can

475
00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 10: tell you that it's very rap, very active, but we're

476
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 10: ready for this.

477
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 2: You mentioned you'd talked to the President this morning, Congressman,

478
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: did he invite you to the rally tomorrow and meeting

479
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 2: him on the tarmac.

480
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 4: That was one of the.

481
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 10: Reasons I was kind of calling and asking. Unfortunately, you know,

482
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 10: because of the work that we have here, he put

483
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 10: out a truth social asking us to stay here back

484
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 10: in Washington and get that work done. I don't happen

485
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 10: to have a committee work that happens until Wednesday, so

486
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 10: I could theoretically go out and do that. But you know, look,

487
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 10: we think there's going to be an exciting announcement around

488
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 10: Selfridge Air Force Base in Michigan, and obviously this rally,

489
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 10: which is going to be more political in nature. He's

490
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 10: returning back home to where the home of the Reagan Democrats,

491
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 10: those McComb County Union households who came out in droves

492
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 10: for Donald Trump this last election and in previous elections.

493
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: He's going back and.

494
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 10: I think it's there to celebrate it with them, and

495
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 10: I think that's a good thing for Michigan.

496
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 7: Well, and well be covering it fully here on Bloomberg

497
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 7: TV and Radio tomorrow whatever remarks the President makes, but congressman,

498
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 7: to the point that the President wants you and your

499
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 7: colleagues to stay there be doing the work on reconciliation.

500
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 7: He also has made it clear, most recently in the

501
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 7: interview that published with Time Magazine just a few days ago,

502
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 7: that he does not want to see medicaid touched as

503
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 7: part of this process, or at least for those who

504
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 7: are eligible. How confident are you that this process, when

505
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 7: it all is said and done, will not have hurt

506
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 7: anyone's eligibility or made cuts beyond just the waste, fraud

507
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 7: and abuse we often hear about.

508
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 10: Well, okay, Kelly, you just hit on the key phrase

509
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 10: on that waste, fraud and abuse, and I believe that

510
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 10: that has to be looked at. I mean, what a

511
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 10: disservice to the taxpayer, frankly, what a disservice to those

512
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 10: that legitimately need this help when we knowingly turn a

513
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 10: blind eye, which I would argue that has happened over

514
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 10: the last number of years. And we've got to go

515
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 10: in and make sure that that safety net is there

516
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 10: for those that need the safety net. And so I

517
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 10: fully support that. The President's been very clear on that,

518
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 10: whether it's in Social Security, whether it's in Medicare Medicaid. Look,

519
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 10: I sat for six years in the state capitol in

520
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 10: Michigan and Lansing, and it's a partnership. You know, Medicare

521
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 10: and Medicaid are a partnership with the States and the Feds.

522
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 10: So you know, the states have to be doing their

523
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 10: part as well. But I'm very confident that, as the

524
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 10: President said, that core function of those things is not

525
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 10: going to get touched. In fact, I would argue, as

526
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 10: we tighten that up and make sure that the waste,

527
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 10: the fraud, the abuse, and the ineligible people that are

528
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 10: currently drawing on the systems that they get pushed out

529
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 10: and squeezed out, it's going to be able to give

530
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 10: greater ability to then give that benefit to those that

531
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 10: really truly deserve it and need it.

532
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: Good to have you back, Congressman. Let's get together when

533
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 2: you're back in town. Bill hezenga Republican from Michigan's fourth

534
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 2: I want news on Selfridge Air National Guard Base. As

535
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: you mentioned, the President had spoken about bring updated jets

536
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: to that base. Maybe we'll have some news on that front.

537
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us alongside Kaylie Lines. I'm Joe

538
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 2: Matthew Will assemble our panel next Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.

539
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 2: Or with us on the Monday edition of Balance of

540
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 2: Power on Bloomberg TV and radio.

541
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

542
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

543
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

544
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

545
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

546
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 7: Likely to be a busy week in politics as well,

547
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 7: after what was Brinkley, A very busy weekend in politics,

548
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 7: not just the White House Correspondence dinner, which has reporters

549
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 7: exhausted as we begin this week here in DC, but

550
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 7: of course also on Saturday, heads of state from all

551
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 7: over the world descending on Rome the Vatican, specifically for

552
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 7: the funeral of Pope Francis. President Trump, of course was

553
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 7: in attendance, as was Ukrainian President voladimir's Alinsky. They actually

554
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 7: met for about fifteen minutes inside the and what might

555
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 7: turn out very well to be one of the most

556
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 7: iconic images in modern geopolitics is the two sat knee

557
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 7: to knee and discussed the prospects for a peace deal

558
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 7: with Russia. We heard from President Trump as he made

559
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 7: his way back to DC after that meeting about what

560
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 7: was discussed.

561
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: He told me that he needs more weapons.

562
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 11: But he's been saying that.

563
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 6: For three years.

564
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 11: Yeah, he needs more weapons, and we're going to see

565
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 11: what happens. I want to see what happens with the

566
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 11: respect to Russia, because Russia, I've been surprised and disappointed,

567
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 11: very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places.

568
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 9: After discussion.

569
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 2: With our eyes on geopolitics, we assembled our political panel.

570
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Schanzeno.

571
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 3: And Rick Davis are with us.

572
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: Genie is senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the

573
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 2: Study of the Presidency in Congress. Our democratic analyst, Rick Art,

574
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 2: republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. You saw

575
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: the image that Kaylee described, Rick, this is something that's

576
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 2: going to be in history books for a long time

577
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 2: to come. Here the optics of this sit down meeting

578
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: on two simple chairs in Saint Peter's Basilica. The to

579
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 2: need a knee talking. As you can see right now

580
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV or if you're with us on YouTube,

581
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: this meeting, Rick, will lead to a deal. Will it

582
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: unlock progress or not.

583
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 12: Well, we hope, so, you know, the two of them

584
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 12: need a knee and the Sistine Chapel, I mean, talk

585
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 12: about stepping on a new story there to see the pope.

586
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 3: But the.

587
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 12: Press coming out of the funeral was all about Zelenski

588
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 12: and Trump, a wartime president meeting with the most important

589
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 12: man in the world, and the reality is maybe shaking

590
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 12: something loose in the process. We've heard over and over

591
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 12: from members of Trump's high command all week that we

592
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 12: weren't making progress and maybe we just give up and

593
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 12: let them work it out themselves.

594
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 9: You know, there was some really good baiting going on,

595
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 9: but the.

596
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 12: Two of them, once they got together, Trump turned his

597
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 12: attention on Russia, scolded them for not doing more around

598
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 12: the peace table, and then we see today the Russians

599
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 12: announce in May day ceasefire. That may be an opening

600
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 12: for real discussions to take place. So hopefully Presidence Lensky

601
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 12: has gotten Donald Trump's ear in a way that can

602
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 12: be more productive for the outcome of these negotiations.

603
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 7: Well, Genie, contrast what we heard from President Trump on

604
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 7: Saturday in the aftermath of the meeting with what we

605
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 7: heard from his Press secretary Caroline Lovett when She briefed

606
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 7: reporters this morning who said that the President is quote

607
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 7: increasingly frustrated not just with the leader of Russia, but

608
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 7: also with the leadership of Ukraine, reiterating that he wants

609
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 7: to see a permanent ceasefire and saying both leaders need

610
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 7: to come to the table to negotiate their way out

611
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 7: of this. Do you think this is a real attitude

612
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 7: shift in terms of how the president is viewing both

613
00:30:55,800 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 7: Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky or is he just getting effected,

614
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 7: if you will, with this entire process.

615
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 5: You know, this has been par for the course with

616
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 5: Donald Trump on Ukraine. It has been a sort of

617
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 5: class in inconsistent messaging, if you will. He's going to

618
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 5: end the war on day one, and then he's not

619
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 5: sure if the deal is possible. Within hours after Whitclock

620
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 5: meets Putin, and then he's back to saying a deal

621
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 5: is possible. Then he's threatening sanctions against Russia, and then

622
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 5: when the global tariffs are rolled out, who's exempt and

623
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 5: excluded Russia? And then the other day, you know, we

624
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 5: may secondary sanction them. And now today she is saying

625
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 5: he's frustrated with both.

626
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 9: Sides, and you know.

627
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 5: Say what you want about Joe Biden's approach to Ukraine.

628
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 5: There was a consistency of messaging there and that has

629
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 5: all been lost with the Trump administration. And he has

630
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 5: really turned what has been a Republican orthodoxy of we

631
00:31:55,640 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 5: want sovereign and secure borders in Russia on in Europe, sorry,

632
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 5: on its head. And we have just been living through

633
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 5: this back and forth, which seems to reflect who he's

634
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,959
Speaker 5: spoken to. So I don't know what to make of

635
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 5: all of this. You hope that Vladimir Putin is being

636
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 5: honest and forthright in terms of wanting a cease fire

637
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 5: and moving towards a peace, but we've been there before.

638
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,479
Speaker 5: And of course the Ukrainians first to respond today and

639
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 5: said they'll believe it when they see it. He's been

640
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 5: bombing civilians in Ukraine for days.

641
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 3: That's right.

642
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: Interesting kind of ultimatum, if I can use that word

643
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: dropped by the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, forget getting

644
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 2: this done on the first day.

645
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: We're way beyond that. But Marco Rubio.

646
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: Seems to say that if it's not done this week,

647
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 2: the US may be all done here.

648
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 3: Here's what he said on NBC.

649
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 13: This week is going to be a really important week

650
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 13: in which we have to make a determination about whether

651
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 13: this is an endeavor that we want to continue to

652
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 13: be involved in, or if it's time to sort of

653
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 13: focus on some other issues that are equally of not

654
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 13: more important in some cases. But we want to see

655
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 13: it happen. There are reasons to be optimistic, but there

656
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 13: are reasons to be realistic of course as well. We're close,

657
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 13: but we're not close enough.

658
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 3: What do you make of this approach, Rick? Is this

659
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 3: just posturing and why this week?

660
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 9: You know, Look, everything.

661
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 12: About negotiations is posturing, and I actually read this as

662
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 12: being more positive about a negotiated settlement than he was

663
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 12: at the beginning of last week, you know, where basically

664
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 12: he said, if we don't get a.

665
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 9: Deal by this week, we're going to quit.

666
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 12: This is a sea change in sort of the messaging

667
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 12: coming out of the State Department. But the reality is,

668
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 12: the only messaging that we really care about is those

669
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 12: coming out of the White House and out of Donald

670
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 12: Trump's mouth, because we know that nobody has the impact

671
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 12: on this negotiated outcome other than him.

672
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 9: I mean, look, it's very hard.

673
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 12: Lavrov, the chief negotiator for the Russians has staked out

674
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 12: territory in this negotiation. It basically is give us everything

675
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 12: we've won for our effort in the invasion of Ukraine,

676
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 12: all of.

677
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 9: Our prots and assets, and leave us alone.

678
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 12: And codify that ad infinitum for the rest of history.

679
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 9: That's not really a negotiation.

680
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 12: That is at a time when we seem content to

681
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 12: negotiate against ourselves.

682
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 9: Oh, we're not going to let Ukraine into NATO.

683
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 12: Oh we're not going to give them access to some

684
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 12: of these territories that are part of their homeland. The

685
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 12: reality is you've got to hold your breath and hope

686
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 12: that something positive happens for the people of Ukraine who've

687
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 12: suffered under these attacked by Putin, And we hope that

688
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 12: Donald Trump will be able to produce something that is

689
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 12: acceptable to the Ukrainian side, not just to the Russian.

690
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 7: Side well, but when we consider the Russian side, Rick

691
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 7: does this kind of rhetoric, even if it is slightly

692
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,959
Speaker 7: different in tone that we're hearing from the Secretary of State,

693
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 7: a suggestion that the US may be getting close to

694
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 7: a point where it walks away from this. What incentive

695
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 7: does Russia have to accelerate this process, if it thinks

696
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 7: it might be able to wait the US out on

697
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,479
Speaker 7: this one, if indeed this agreement would have some things

698
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 7: at least that Russia wouldn't necessarily like.

699
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 12: Yeah, I would have thought that we were on the

700
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 12: precipice of walking away if Donald Trump had not sat

701
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 12: down in the Sistine Chapel with Letimer Zelenski, President of

702
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 12: Ukraine and started up a direct conversation with him. Remember

703
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 12: the last time they sat, Nita Nee, it was a

704
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 12: disaster in the Oval Office. And so the fact that

705
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 12: both of them came out of the Sistine Chapel basically

706
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 12: in the same place, which was get Russia back to

707
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 12: the table in a fashion that's productive and get them

708
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 12: to stop these attacks that Genie is talking about, which

709
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 12: do not add to a environment that is a productive negotiation.

710
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 12: Donald Trump now owns these negotiations, he owns the outcome.

711
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 9: So if we walk away, it'll be our failure, not

712
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 9: the failure of Ukraine or Russia.

713
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 2: Not lost on us that JD Vance was not in

714
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,760
Speaker 2: that meeting at the Vatican. Genie was that the difference

715
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: between what we saw last weekend and the Oval Office,

716
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 2: you know, it.

717
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 5: Could be and it's a great question because it shows

718
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 5: sort of the uncertainty as to where Donald Trump is

719
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 5: on this issue. I mean, for ten years, at every

720
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 5: point when it has been raised, he has almost always

721
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 5: supported Russia and spoke glowingly of Vladimir Putin. And so

722
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 5: it's hard to know what explains the kneed and knee

723
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 5: with Zelensky and how different that was. But you know,

724
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 5: when you think about and Rick raised Lavrov. He was

725
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 5: on CBS this weekend and it was literally striking to

726
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 5: watch because it shows how intractable this issue really is.

727
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 5: He kept coming back over and over to the fact

728
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:55,280
Speaker 5: that Russia is fundamentally threatened by Ukraine wanting a sovereign

729
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 5: border and to move to the west. None of this

730
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 5: has addressed that price And it was very clear listening

731
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 5: to Lavrov putting even Putin aside. There are vast powers

732
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 5: in Russia for whom the idea that Ukraine is going

733
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 5: to move any further to the west that it already

734
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 5: has is completely unacceptable. So even if there's a short

735
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:20,479
Speaker 5: term deal here, what is to stop Russia in a year,

736
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,240
Speaker 5: six years, or five years from going back into Ukraine.

737
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 5: And so this is the intractable nature of this problem.

738
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 5: And that fundamental issue has yet to be addressed in

739
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 5: any way that we've seen, at least publicly.

740
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 9: Well.

741
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 7: And I wonder also if this issue just widely Genie,

742
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 7: the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is something that

743
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 7: will be addressed by President Trump at all when he

744
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 7: marks one hundred days with a speech in Michigan tomorrow,

745
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 7: knowing how often in rallies that will probably look and

746
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 7: sound similar. On the campaign trail, he suggested he could

747
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 7: end this war in a day, as we now have

748
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 7: one hundred days past. Almost is he going to call

749
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 7: attention to the fact that it has not.

750
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 5: He might not, but it was so interesting in that

751
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 5: Time article he said something like, oh, I'm not sure.

752
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 5: I was just exaggerating. I don't know why people listen

753
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 5: to that. So you know, he could do it in

754
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 5: that typical Donald Trump way. I doubt he goes out

755
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 5: to Michigan and talks a lot about Ukraine. I think

756
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 5: he'll talk a lot about immigration and the economy. Immigration

757
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 5: in particular, because that's what they see is their strongest issue,

758
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 5: but the economy. Given where he is, he certainly wants

759
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 5: to say he's fighting for the auto workers and other

760
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 5: blue collar workers to bring this manufacturing, domestic manufacturing back

761
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 5: to the United States. So I think that'll be his focus.

762
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 5: He probably won't spend a lot of time on this

763
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 5: really difficult international issue.

764
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 7: All right. Jeanie Schanzeno and Rick Davis, our political panel

765
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 7: here kicking us off for the week on Balance of

766
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 7: Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you both so

767
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 7: much as always for joining us, and of course show

768
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 7: we know that the president does have the power with

769
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 7: speeches like this, as we saw in the campaign trail

770
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 7: and have seen since, to go in a lot of

771
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 7: different directions, even if he's there to talk about the

772
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 7: things he has achieved within the first one hundred days

773
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 7: of as well.

774
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 3: That's the weave, isn't it.

775
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 2: Yes, it's also I end up moving the market sometimes

776
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 2: when he speaks, and we're no strangers to that. We'll

777
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 2: get an update on the markets for you coming up

778
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: with Charlie Pellett, and we're going to turn our attention

779
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 2: to Canadian elections happening today.

780
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 3: David Gura standing by in Ottawa.

781
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 7: Yeah, going to be a big one. President Trump weighing

782
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 7: in on that to today, mind you, the fifty first

783
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 7: state talk, it's still going. We'll have more head here

784
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 7: on Bloomberg TV and radio.

785
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,479
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

786
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

787
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,959
Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

788
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

789
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:48,280
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

790
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 2: Looking at a very different capital today, Kaylee, with elections

791
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 2: underway in Canada. One of our top stories takes us

792
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 2: far outside the bubble, but we have sent our asset,

793
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 2: David Goura to Ottawa to report on this. It's impossible, though,

794
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: to talk about the Canadian elections without talking about politics

795
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 2: here in the US. You know, I'm referring to tariffs.

796
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 2: It goes back to Governor Trudeau, fifty first state and

797
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: a remarkable turn about here that has brought Mark Carney's

798
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 2: Liberal Party in contention in a race where many had

799
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 2: counted them out.

800
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 7: Yeah, President Trump is a factor here, and he was

801
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 7: weighing in as recently as this morning, taking to True

802
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 7: Social to wish good luck to the great people of Canada,

803
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 7: he says, going on to say that it could quadruple

804
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 7: in size was zero tariffs or taxes if Canada becomes

805
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 7: the cherished fifty first state of the United States of

806
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 7: America no more. This is a quote from the president,

807
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 7: artificially drawn line from many years ago. So on that note,

808
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 7: we do turn to our colleague David Gerab Bloomberg correspondent

809
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 7: who is live in Ottawa for US and David case

810
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 7: in point is to Donald Trump being an animated issue

811
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 7: in this election.

812
00:40:58,000 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 14: Yeah, there was some concern a few weeks ago about

813
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 14: fourign interference in this election. I don't think this was

814
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,320
Speaker 14: the kind of foreign interference that a lot of folks

815
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 14: here were forecasting. But that was an extraordinary post from

816
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 14: the President of the United States today, kind of doubling

817
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 14: down on the rhetoric that we've heard over the course

818
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,439
Speaker 14: of this campaign. And as Joe is saying, it's something

819
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 14: that's really shifted the narrative of this campaign. Donald Trump

820
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 14: talking about candidate's sovereignty, calling that into question and really

821
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 14: throwing into doubt the longevity of this very long standing

822
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 14: relationship trade an economic relationship between the US and Canada.

823
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 14: It has been an extraordinary turnaround. If you were to

824
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 14: go back to last fall, and looked at the polling

825
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 14: when Justin Trudeau's positions Prime minister was very much in doubt.

826
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 14: A lot of that dissatisfaction from the electorate hinged on

827
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 14: the fact that people were unhappy with the economy in

828
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 14: this country, that there were concerns about housing for example,

829
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 14: about growth and inflation, about debt and deficit. All of

830
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 14: that continues to exist as a backdrop to the campaign

831
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 14: that we're seeing come to an end here today. But

832
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 14: this infusion of Donald Trump into this race has really

833
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 14: upended everything. And so we have both candidates trying to

834
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 14: position themselves as the individual who's going to be able

835
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 14: to most effectively go to the White House, go to Washington,

836
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 14: meet with President Trump, pushback on some of that rhetoric

837
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 14: again about sovereignty, but also about trade and begin to

838
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 14: broker a new kind of trade relationship between the US

839
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 14: and Canada. What that looks like will be very much

840
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 14: determined by the outcome of this election today.

841
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 2: Polls closing between seven pm and ten pm, David, just

842
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 2: give our listeners and viewers a sense of what to

843
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 2: watch for tonight.

844
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 14: So this is of course a vast geography, and those

845
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 14: polls are going to close in a very staggered way.

846
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 14: But so many of those seats in Parliament are cluster

847
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 14: in the eastern part of this country, and that is

848
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 14: a real stronghold in this campaign. For Mark Karney, we've

849
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 14: seen him doing very well in the polling in the

850
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 14: eastern part of Canada, so pay attention to that and

851
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 14: by mid evening we should have a sense of how

852
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,399
Speaker 14: he and the Liberals broadly are doing here. But both

853
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 14: of these candidates have invested a lot of time and

854
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 14: attention in the western part of this country as well,

855
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 14: and I think that bears watching too. Of course, Pier

856
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 14: Poliev is born in Alberta and has spent a lot

857
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 14: of time campaigning in the West. Mark Carney has as well.

858
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 14: If this is a close phrase, if it's not a

859
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 14: landslide or a majority doesn't seem as shured in the

860
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 14: eastern part of this country, I think we'll be looking

861
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,879
Speaker 14: very closely. It's sort of what may come about here

862
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 14: in the more western provinces and in Canada.

863
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 3: Guys.

864
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 2: David gera Bloomberg correspondent, host of The Big Take podcast,

865
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 2: and I'm guessing we're going to have a good one

866
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 2: to look forward to here with us live from Ottawa

867
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 2: on this election day, David referring to the vast geography

868
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 2: here that of course includes Manitoba, and I'm glad to

869
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 2: say that we're joined by Manitoba's Finance Minister, Adrian Sala

870
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 2: with us on this election day. Minister, thanks for being

871
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV in radio. How have the candidates

872
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 2: spent time in Manitoba, how present have they been and

873
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 2: what's been their message to voters?

874
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 15: Look, I think we're hearing a strong message from all

875
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 15: individuals running for leadership of our country here in Canada. Look,

876
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 15: we're seeing, of course Canadians are stepping up and are

877
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 15: turning out to vote in record numbers. I think the

878
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 15: obviously the interest in voting has been driven by Donald

879
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 15: Trump and some of the comments we've heard from him,

880
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 15: and that's driving people to want to see certainty and

881
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 15: of course looking to have a prime minister step up

882
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 15: and provide that certainty going forward. Certainly, one of the

883
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 15: big stories I think over the last couple of months

884
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 15: has been a major shift in polling towards the favor

885
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 15: of the Liberal candidate, mister Carney. But I think there's

886
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 15: a bigger story here at play, which is that both

887
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 15: major parties. Now we're seeing a lot of consensus, I

888
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 15: think in response to what we're seeing to the south

889
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 15: of US, where there's a real agreement around the importance

890
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 15: of looking to do nation building projects, finding a way

891
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 15: forward on environmental approvals to make sure projects can move

892
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 15: forward more quickly, and of course focusing on the development

893
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 15: of trade corridors. So we're seeing that consensus and I

894
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 15: think that that's a good thing because ultimately that will

895
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 15: serve Canada well going forward and ensuring that provinces like

896
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 15: Manitoba continue to grow and develop well.

897
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 7: Minister, as you allude to the swings and polling which

898
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 7: our colleague was just speaking to as well, can you

899
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 7: just describe for us the sentiment shift you have seen

900
00:44:55,360 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 7: underway in Canada amongst Canadians since President Trump assumed office,

901
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 7: because we've heard a lot about the nationalism, Canadians not

902
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 7: wanting to make trips to the US for example. Just

903
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 7: how powerful a force is that.

904
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 15: It's been an incredibly powerful force. Look, I think the

905
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 15: comments from President Trump have really driven Canadians to unite

906
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 15: in wanting to work together to ensure that we respond

907
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 15: to the threats that we've seen to our economy and

908
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 15: our sovereignty. Canadians are wanting to work together like never

909
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 15: before in response to those threats, and so we're seeing

910
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 15: that again in terms of the types of language we're

911
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 15: seeing from all parties and frankly the two major parties

912
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 15: that are contending for leadership of this country and again

913
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 15: orienting them towards nation building projects. And of course for

914
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 15: provinces like Manitoba, this is a good thing. We're well

915
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 15: positioned to support nation building work with the energy and

916
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 15: the role that Manitoba plays as an important trade court

917
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 15: or not only to Western Canada, but also to Europe.

918
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: Mister Sla, a few data points from your Chamber of

919
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 2: Commerce in Manitoba. Manitoba exports eighteen billion dollars worth of

920
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 2: goods to the US every year, and two way trade

921
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 2: between Manitoba and the US is valued at roughly forty

922
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 2: two billion dollars. What happens to those numbers if reciprocal

923
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 2: tariffs has threatened by President Trump and you can add

924
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 2: auto tariffs if you want to that equation or in

925
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 2: fact put into effect.

926
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 15: Look, we know that there's no question that those tariffs

927
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 15: and reciprocal tariffs will have a significant impact on economies

928
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 15: across Canada, within our provinces and of course our country's economy. Look,

929
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 15: we want a fair and predictable trading relationship with the US,

930
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 15: and we know that this tariff war isn't helping anybody.

931
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 15: It's certainly not helping Manitoba's or Canadians, and it's not

932
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 15: helping Americans either. Look, Manitoba exports in terms of hogs,

933
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 15: approximately three to three and a half million hogs a

934
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 15: year into the US economy. Now, if twenty five percent

935
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 15: tariffs were applied to that, that's going to have a

936
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 15: direct impact on the cost of Macon for Americans, and

937
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,880
Speaker 15: they go to the grocery store, and of course everyone's

938
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 15: favorite breakfast sandwich product there from McDonald's as well. So look,

939
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 15: there's a high degree of interconnectedness, of course between our economies.

940
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 15: We know that the risk is real, but the impacts

941
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 15: and the negative impacts will be felt not only by

942
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 15: Canadians but by Americans as well.

943
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 6: Well.

944
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 7: And obviously a lot of that will come down to

945
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 7: the decision making of President Trump and negotiations with who

946
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 7: ultimately ever gets the majority in Parliament and then therefore

947
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 7: becomes Prime Minister of Canada after today. But Minister Provincially,

948
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:42,720
Speaker 7: what is Manitoba able or prepared to do to offset

949
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 7: any hardship that those who are reliant on trade with

950
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 7: the United States may come to if we are to

951
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 7: see a deterioration in that trading relationship.

952
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 15: We'll always fight to protect our jobs and our businesses

953
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 15: in Manitoba, and our recent budget, in response to the

954
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 15: threats that these tariffs have created to our economy, was

955
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 15: focused on really helping to ensure we were sustainable and

956
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 15: that we had the resilience we need during this challenging time,

957
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 15: and so our budget focused and responding to those threats

958
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 15: by bringing forward a three point seven billion dollar capital

959
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 15: plan where we're focused on investing in significant economy supporting

960
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 15: infrastructure type investments, trade supporting infrastructure like our Port of

961
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 15: Churchill and Northern Manitoba Centre Port, which is a multimodial

962
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 15: facility to the west of Winnipeg. We've also leaned into

963
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:34,240
Speaker 15: procurement and bringing some of our procurements back to Canada

964
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 15: and ultimately hopefully back to Manitoba to create more business opportunities.

965
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 15: And light of these challenges, our province, along with other provinces,

966
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 15: are also working very closely together to reduce interprovincial trade barriers,

967
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 15: which we know is an essential thing we can do

968
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 15: to help create more resilience and success for our job

969
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 15: producers in Manitoba. So those are some of the measures

970
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 15: that we're taking in response. Again, this is about creating

971
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 15: economic resilience during this time of uncertainty, along with other

972
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 15: direct supports for businesses. As required, we will work to

973
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 15: protect our jobs and protect our economy here in Canada

974
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 15: and in Manitoba, Western Canada, and we're going to do

975
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 15: whatever it takes to do that.

976
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 2: To what extent is China making this more complicated as

977
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,760
Speaker 2: you deal with the uncertainty over tariffs here in the US.

978
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 2: Manitoba is handling one hundred percent levies from China on

979
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 2: some pretty important exports grape seed, oil, oil, cakes and peas,

980
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 2: a twenty five percent tariff, pork and aquatic products. How

981
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 2: large is that market? How much of an issue is

982
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:36,400
Speaker 2: this for you in Manitoba.

983
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,359
Speaker 15: Well, we know that those tariffs are having a disproportionate

984
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 15: impact on Western Canada. So I appreciate the opportunity to

985
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 15: bring that perspective here today to your viewers. Look, the

986
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 15: impact is real of course on our canola producers and

987
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 15: our pork producers, and we know that those Chinese tariffs

988
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 15: are also impacting our fisheries in Eastern Canada as well,

989
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 15: so they seem to have been designed to try to

990
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 15: divide our country will stand united, our province Manitoba will

991
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 15: stand united with the rest of Canada and holding firm

992
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 15: against these actions. Again, we're going to work together with

993
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 15: our agricultural producers to make sure that they can find

994
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 15: new markets for their products and that will continue to

995
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 15: support them. We're going to need some support from the

996
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 15: federal government to do that, but again we're going to

997
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 15: continue to make sure we protect those jobs. Egg is

998
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 15: a massive sector in our provincial economy in Manitoba and

999
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 15: a key part of our value proposition, and we're going

1000
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 15: to keep making sure that our producers are supported and

1001
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 15: are looking forward to working with the federal government to

1002
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 15: work through this challenge together.

1003
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 7: Well, Minister, as you talk about finding new markets for

1004
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 7: those goods, what trading partners does Canada does Manitoba need

1005
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 7: to draw closer here?

1006
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 15: Well, I think there's significant opportunity for us in a

1007
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 15: number of areas around the world. But one thing I'd

1008
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 15: like to highlight is just the significant opportunities we have

1009
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,919
Speaker 15: to expand our market in Europe as a province that's

1010
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 15: located in the middle of the country, but we are

1011
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 15: a maritime province with our northern port, Port of Churchill.

1012
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 15: Our government has been making significant investments in the rail

1013
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 15: line that takes goods up to that port as well

1014
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,280
Speaker 15: as the port. We're going to see critical mineral shipments

1015
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 15: double this summer from the Port of Churchill. So a

1016
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,360
Speaker 15: lot of exciting opportunity as it relates to expanding Manitoba's

1017
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 15: role as an important trade corridor for moving goods from

1018
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 15: Western Canada to Europe through the port and ideally seeing

1019
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:28,280
Speaker 15: more goods move from Europe the other way into Western Canada.

1020
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 15: So Europe is one significant opportunity for us given that

1021
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 15: maritime port that we have, the Port of Churchill is

1022
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,200
Speaker 15: fifteen hundred kilometers closer to the biggest port in Europe

1023
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 15: in Rotterdam than Thunder Bay, so we do have an

1024
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 15: advantage there that we're looking to continue developing and I

1025
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 15: think you can expect that we're going to keep working

1026
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 15: to grow that opportunity that trade order to expand trade

1027
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 15: with Europe and beyond.

1028
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 2: Minister Salom, we've only got about a minute left. What

1029
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 2: are you doing tonight to watch the results?

1030
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 15: We're going to cozy up somewhere here. We're here in

1031
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 15: Toronto and looking forward to sitting around and with other

1032
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 15: Canadians and watching the results roll in.

1033
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 7: All right, well, we will be doing the same here

1034
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 7: at Bloomberg. Sir, thanks very much for joining us on

1035
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 7: this election day life from our bureau in Toronto. Adrian

1036
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 7: Sala of course, Finance Minister of the Province of Manitoba,

1037
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,439
Speaker 7: and I think based off of true social we might

1038
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:23,320
Speaker 7: be able to assume that President Trump is going to

1039
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 7: be keeping an eye on these results as well. Wants

1040
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 7: to know what's happening with the land with which he

1041
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 7: would like to see become.

1042
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 2: Fifty first date the beautiful land Mass, he says, as

1043
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 2: long as he don't have that arbitrary line that, of course,

1044
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 2: we call a border. Thanks for listening to the Balance

1045
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

1046
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

1047
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

1048
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.