Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
Speaker 2: source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
Speaker 2: whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show.
Speaker 2: Now here's your host, Paul Archian.
Speaker 1: It's a Super Bowl edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. I
Speaker 1: am Paul Charchian. Co host today Brian Johnson.
Speaker 3: Hey, buddy, what up charge?
Speaker 4: I just dusted off my notes from two years ago
Speaker 4: when we.
Speaker 3: Did just repeat that.
Speaker 4: It wasn't a little Saquon Barkley of course. Yeah, and
Speaker 4: we gotta we gotta do over. Yeah, we're excited. Yay
Speaker 4: super Bowl.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jeeves, I am excited about the super good game.
Speaker 1: It's not the teams people wanted, not that you know,
Speaker 1: But no, I don't have a problem.
Speaker 3: I do think the best team in.
Speaker 1: The AFC, although I thought I thought Buffalo was better,
Speaker 1: but they lost. The best team in the AFC and
Speaker 1: the best team in the NFC you're playing each other.
Speaker 1: I don't have a problem with that. It's the Catches.
Speaker 1: It's just fatigue, right, we have Chiefs fatigue and the
Speaker 1: Eagles have been here three times in whatever six years,
Speaker 1: seven years.
Speaker 4: And we don't have to beat around the bush or
Speaker 4: avoid the elephant in the room or whatever it's. It's
Speaker 4: it's very hard to root for a Philadelphia team if
Speaker 4: you're not from Philadelphia. Sorry, Philadelphians, that's just the way
Speaker 4: the cookie crumbles. We know, not everyone in Philly is
Speaker 4: the guy yelling the Sea word at the Packers fans,
Speaker 4: but that's your image and it will forever be that way.
Speaker 4: So ah, yeah, look, they get that.
Speaker 1: I would just last night I did a long podcast
Speaker 1: with some friends from Philadelphia and Degenerate Dungeon.
Speaker 3: You should look it up. It's a good it's a
Speaker 3: good bit. And they know that.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're self aware enough to know that how
Speaker 1: the rest of the world sees Eagles fans and that
Speaker 1: you know that there's a certain amount of disdain there
Speaker 1: for a lot of people.
Speaker 3: That's just that's it, that's how it goes. They get it.
Speaker 4: Well. At the end of the day, we got a
Speaker 4: close game, one and a half points spread, so wrong
Speaker 4: team favor Yeah, so right now, right now, the Chiefs
Speaker 4: are favored. You think it's the I'm with you. I
Speaker 4: think it should be the the Eagles. It should just
Speaker 4: be you should be a coin flip. Really, but uh yeah,
Speaker 4: one and a half on on DraftKings right now. Kind
Speaker 4: of the the gold standard, I guess you can say
Speaker 4: when it comes to the lines, so uh but yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm taking those points. I'm just going money line. There's
Speaker 4: no point in taking if you like the one and
Speaker 4: a half with the Eagles, you just you.
Speaker 1: Just take the money line, right because it's unlikely that
Speaker 1: you need the one and a half points. I feel
Speaker 1: so strongly on the Eagle side, although you may change
Speaker 1: my mind today, you're gonna you're gonna break down the
Speaker 1: Eagle side.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna break down the Chief side. I'm so strongly
Speaker 3: on Eagles.
Speaker 1: That were I in a state, if I lived in
Speaker 1: a state where I could place a legal wager, my
Speaker 1: wagering would be Eagles money line, Eagles giving five and
Speaker 1: a half points, Eagles giving nine and a half points,
Speaker 1: and Eagles giving.
Speaker 3: Thirteen and a half points.
Speaker 1: I think, I think there is the chance of an
Speaker 1: Eagles blowout in this game.
Speaker 4: All right, let me what, but you might change our mind.
Speaker 4: I mean, the Eagles giving thirteen and a half with that.
Speaker 1: Gets you plus six sixty. I believe if I've got
Speaker 1: this in my notes, right, six eight six eighty now
Speaker 1: plus six eighty little, Yeah.
Speaker 4: That's uh, maybe I'll maybe I'll entertain that. But yeah,
Speaker 4: that's well, I do. I do like Philly in this game.
Speaker 4: Not change not the players you would think. I like
Speaker 4: as much as as one would imagine.
Speaker 1: I got a huge take on Devontae Adams. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about him more later. I guess, well, maybe let's not.
Speaker 1: Let's why don't we just dive into the eagle side
Speaker 1: of this thing. We'll break it down Fantasy Football weekly
Speaker 1: style letter grades on all the players, and I'll let
Speaker 1: you take it from here. Do you want to start
Speaker 1: with the you want to start with Saquon? Do you
Speaker 1: want to start with the passing game? How do you
Speaker 1: want to attack?
Speaker 4: Let's start. Let's start with Saquon because that's you know,
Speaker 4: everyone's just going to assume a grade for Saquon, right,
Speaker 4: He's been playing at a A plus level all season long,
Speaker 4: but uh, I'm giving him a B in this matchup.
Speaker 3: It's a tough match up.
Speaker 4: It's a tough matchup on paper. Now, granted, the Chiefs
Speaker 4: have not faced Saquon Barkley yet this year, but they
Speaker 4: faced some good backs and Kansas City during the regular
Speaker 4: season only allowed seventy point four rushing yards per game
Speaker 4: to opposing running backs. Only one Loan back was able
Speaker 4: to eclipse eighty rushing yards in a game against Kansas City,
Speaker 4: and that was Jerome Ford in Week fifteen. He had
Speaker 4: eighty four yards on seven carries, so he kind of
Speaker 4: just broke like a long run, so it was almost
Speaker 4: kind of foogie. So they've been very tough against backs
Speaker 4: on the ground. Now in the playoffs, posing backs have
Speaker 4: fared a little better. Jaapson had eighteen carries eighty eight
Speaker 4: yards and a touchdown in the divisional round. James Cook
Speaker 4: eighty five yards on just thirteen carries in Depplicably, they
Speaker 4: went away from James Cook.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they regret that now.
Speaker 1: I believe there was a lot of good, valid angst
Speaker 1: from Bill's fans about the fact that they got away
Speaker 1: from the running game and almost completely abandoned it down
Speaker 1: the stretch, which I can understand. You've got Josh Allen.
Speaker 1: You want to let your quarterback be heroic. I totally
Speaker 1: get that, But man, James Cook was a problem for
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and they took him off the board.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's totally bizarre. They're going to be questioning that
Speaker 4: all offseason. But anyway, we got time to talk about
Speaker 4: Buffalo later later in the offseason. But back to Barkley,
Speaker 4: there's really not much of a receiving angle either for
Speaker 4: opposing backs. Oh against the Chiefs that they have not
Speaker 4: allowed a receiving touchdown. So fantasy wise, like you know,
Speaker 4: if you're gonna be playing like showdown type format and everyone,
Speaker 4: Barkley is gonna be the chalkiest player out there. If
Speaker 4: I'm doing like a one a one silver bullet entry
Speaker 4: trying to take down a big tournament, I'm fade in
Speaker 4: Barkley in this one. And I don't like I don't
Speaker 4: like the rushing props. He's right around one thirteen is
Speaker 4: over under for rushing yards. I take the under. To
Speaker 4: get the plus money on his rushing props, you gotta
Speaker 4: go to one hundred and twenty yards plus. I don't
Speaker 4: like those bets at all. So I'm just I'm out
Speaker 4: on the Barkley market entirely, basically, and I'm fade in
Speaker 4: them again in any kind of big tournament format where
Speaker 4: you're just gonna assume sixty seventy percent of the field
Speaker 4: are gonna be utilizing Barkley whenever format you're playing. So
Speaker 4: I like the passing game a lot more, and you
Speaker 4: think I would jump into the wide receivers, But I'm
Speaker 4: going right to Dallas Goddard is my favorite play in
Speaker 4: this game, giving him an A grade.
Speaker 1: Did you see Did you see that ninety nine percent
Speaker 1: of the prop bets on Dallas Goddard are the over?
Speaker 3: Are they that ninety nine percent?
Speaker 4: But you know what's shocking now? I know not he
Speaker 4: but his position tight end never won Super Bowl MVP.
Speaker 4: But yep, one hundred and twenty to one right now,
Speaker 4: I've bet this somewhat hard. I think those are incredible
Speaker 4: odds for a guy like Dallas Goddard who is in
Speaker 4: a in a smash spot.
Speaker 3: I agree those are those are crazy odds.
Speaker 4: Opposing tight ends of average eight targets per game against
Speaker 4: the Chiefs of the season averaging more than six catches
Speaker 4: seventy yards per contest. Dalton Schultz had a strong game
Speaker 4: and look like Dalton kincaid. He could have had a
Speaker 4: good game in the AFC Championship, dropped a long pass.
Speaker 4: The weather was a concern there. This is indoors. The
Speaker 4: Chiefs is going to be super focused on stopping Barkley.
Speaker 4: We'll get to the wide receivers in a minute. Dallas
Speaker 4: Goddard monster game potential here and one hundred and twenty
Speaker 4: to one for MVP. I love that, So I'm betting that.
Speaker 4: I'm betting his receiving ladder starting at sixty yards, he
Speaker 4: getting the plus money all the way up to one
Speaker 4: hundred plus souh A grade for Dallas Goddard. I might
Speaker 4: even bet Grant Calcatara anytime touchdown, just because the odds
Speaker 4: are so good. I'm gonna bet Dallas Goddard first touchdown,
Speaker 4: anytime touchdown. He could score two touchdowns Grant. Hence why
Speaker 4: I like him as Super Bowl MVP. At the one
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty to one sou A grade on Goddard.
Speaker 3: I've got I you know I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I would a again, can't bet in Minnesota yet, but
Speaker 1: MVP I would bet. I would put some money on
Speaker 1: Goddard because he does have that upside for one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty yards and two touchdowns, and now he wins,
Speaker 1: and those odds are nuts. The other MVP bet I like,
Speaker 1: And again I think the Eagles are gonna cover easily
Speaker 1: in this game. How about Jalen Hurts at plus three
Speaker 1: point fifty, he's the you know usual you know, I
Speaker 1: don't know, eight times out of ten this goes to
Speaker 1: the quarterback on the winning team, And because Saquon Barkley
Speaker 1: is on that team, he's got higher odds then Hurts
Speaker 1: has got And so I get the quarterback on the team.
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna win. At three and a half
Speaker 1: to one. That's a you know, that feels like an
Speaker 1: awfully good opportunity. And and as you mentioned, I don't
Speaker 1: I don't think Barkley. I don't think Barkley is is
Speaker 1: likely to win MVP here.
Speaker 4: No, I'm with you, And yeah, I would bet Hurts
Speaker 4: over Barkley at MVP. And and oddly enough, I like
Speaker 4: the rushing props for Hurts more than I do for Barkley.
Speaker 4: He's over underwriting or.
Speaker 3: Something like that.
Speaker 4: It varies, but yeah, I mean it's right around forty
Speaker 4: forty one, it's going up and now, but starting at
Speaker 4: fifty plus you're getting plus money. So I bet the
Speaker 4: Hurts rushing ladder and it goes up to one twenty,
Speaker 4: so I'm hitting every stop at fifty hundred yards Now
Speaker 4: for those unfamiliar with prop or with a ladder bets
Speaker 4: like at the fifty sixty seventy ra age, I'll start,
Speaker 4: you know, half, I'm personally not betting major money, but
Speaker 4: you know, like tennish dollars, and as you go up
Speaker 4: the ladder, you uh, you're assuming if you if he's
Speaker 4: hitting these milestones, your your bets later on or house money,
Speaker 4: and but they your bets will go down as you
Speaker 4: go up the ladder. But anyway, been these teams in general,
Speaker 4: you see mobile quarterbacks run in the Super Bowl a
Speaker 4: lot more, even like sort of non mobile quarterbacks like
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes. He runs a tone in the Super Bowl
Speaker 4: even when injured. Hurts ran fifteen times for seventy yards
Speaker 4: in the first meeting, had three touchdowns. By the way,
Speaker 4: when I say the first meeting the Super Bowl two
Speaker 4: years ago, and I think that that was before the
Speaker 4: inception of the Toush push, which was last she had
Speaker 4: three monster games.
Speaker 3: No, I think I think they were Toush pushing two year,
Speaker 3: two seasons.
Speaker 4: The first one I think that was just been around
Speaker 4: so long word I think so, I think so that
Speaker 4: would make sense. But but back to the rushing Josh
Speaker 4: Allen forty yards against the Chiefs two weeks ago. Not great,
Speaker 4: but they didn't really utilize that in the game plan.
Speaker 4: C J. Stroud had forty two yards on six carries
Speaker 4: in the divisional round during the season, Lamar Jackson one
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty two yards, Russell Wilson fifty five yards, Bo.
Speaker 3: Nicks forty seven yards.
Speaker 4: So if he gets the carries, which I think he
Speaker 4: will see double digit carries in this game, yeah hurts.
Speaker 4: I love the I love the rushing props and his
Speaker 4: chances to win MVP for sure. And lastly, we got
Speaker 4: to talk quickly only about two wide receivers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you really don't.
Speaker 1: Although I've got a dots and angle that I'll share
Speaker 1: with you at the end.
Speaker 4: I wanted one, but I mean zero targets one of
Speaker 4: the last games.
Speaker 1: Well, well his his his receiving prop is half a catch.
Speaker 4: So right, Yeah, that's that's all. That's what I figured.
Speaker 4: It's probably in his yards are probably what like four
Speaker 4: and a half. Yeah, he needs a catch to catch it,
Speaker 4: but he has no targets of the last two games.
Speaker 4: When when AJ Brown has been healthy over the last
Speaker 4: two weeks. In the wildcard round, was kind of more
Speaker 4: of a decoy, but the last two weeks major alpha
Speaker 4: role for Brown over to Vonda Smith. One hundred and
Speaker 4: eighty air yards to twenty three from Smith over the
Speaker 4: last two weeks, so Brown will command one would assume
Speaker 4: the majority of the work through the air in a
Speaker 4: decent matchup. The Chiefs allowed twelve catches one hundred and
Speaker 4: forty yards per game to opposing wideouts. Aren't huge numbers,
Speaker 4: but they did allow nineteen touchdowns to the position, that
Speaker 4: was fourth most in the league. Secondary receivers did farewell
Speaker 4: against Kansas City later in the year, So I am
Speaker 4: thrown a dart at Devonda Smith as Super Bowl MVP
Speaker 4: as well at six too one.
Speaker 1: That's my other play is exactly that, sixty five to
Speaker 1: one for Smith yes.
Speaker 4: Week sixteen, Tank Dell six catches ninety eight yards a touchdown.
Speaker 4: Week seventeen, Calvin Austin outpaced George Pickens, obviously the number
Speaker 4: two receiver there. Marvin Mims, Devon Vley, and Devon Vley
Speaker 4: in Week eighteen combined for three touchdowns. So secondary receivers successful.
Speaker 4: DeVonta Smith can pop the top on any play. So yeah,
Speaker 4: sixty five to one, let me give you those seem
Speaker 4: too long, So yeah, we're on the same wavelength there.
Speaker 1: Let me give you more on DeVante Smith. He runs
Speaker 1: from the slot more than any Eagle by a mile.
Speaker 1: He averages twenty nine snaps per game from the slot.
Speaker 1: AJ Brown ten snaps from the slot. John Dotson is
Speaker 1: twelve snaps from the slot. So Smith is the de
Speaker 1: facto slot receiver. And running from the slot, he goes
Speaker 1: up against slot cornerback Chamari Connor, who allows the highest
Speaker 1: catch rate of passes in his coverage than any cornerback
Speaker 1: in the league eighty five percent. So base you know,
Speaker 1: eight and a half out of ten passes that go
Speaker 1: his way get caught.
Speaker 3: So and that.
Speaker 1: Means most of those will Beante Smith catches. And of
Speaker 1: all thirty two teams, Kansas City allows the second highest
Speaker 1: percentage of receptions to slot receivers versus outside receivers. And
Speaker 1: here's his last here's his three lifetime games against Steve
Speaker 1: Spagnolo's Kansas City Chiefs. Seven catches hundred yards, six catches
Speaker 1: ninety nine yards, seven catches one hundred and twenty two yards.
Speaker 3: DeVante Smith, I.
Speaker 4: Might have to hit that again, hit that bed again
Speaker 4: if you want in you got my number.
Speaker 3: I appreciate that. Thank you. Off sixty five to one
Speaker 3: for Smith.
Speaker 1: So you know, much like you were talking about Goddard,
Speaker 1: is there a pathway for him to have one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty yards and two touchdowns?
Speaker 4: There is for Smith, no doubt, absolutely, So I don't
Speaker 4: think I ditched out the grades to sum up a's
Speaker 4: Goddard Hurts and then it's bees for Smith, Brown and Barkley.
Speaker 4: It's it's Goddard and Hurts are the plays plays we
Speaker 4: like in this one.
Speaker 1: So you're a's and bees for the Eagles, and I'm
Speaker 1: with you on virtually everything you said. I'm a little
Speaker 1: bit more nervous about AJ Brown going up against Trent
Speaker 1: McDuffie a lot, but that's, you know, that's splitting hairs
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs side. It's a couple of nervous bees,
Speaker 1: some c's and bench grades, and that these individual matchups
Speaker 1: just they lean so heavily towards the Eagles, and that's
Speaker 1: part of why I think that this is going to
Speaker 1: be a perhaps one sided Eagles game. But let's start
Speaker 1: with Travis Kelcey playoff. Kelsey posted one big playoff game.
Speaker 1: It was the Houston game, and then he had a
Speaker 1: silent one last game against the Bills. The Chiefs easily
Speaker 1: won that big game against Houston, and they struggled to
Speaker 1: get the win against Buffalo. So I think they will
Speaker 1: try to target him a lot in this game. And
Speaker 1: the Eagles don't have like shut down tight end player.
Speaker 1: I went back and looked at who's covering Kelsey or
Speaker 1: sorry tight ends, and it's just it's all just different guys,
Speaker 1: you know, it just depends on higherly on the scheme.
Speaker 3: For that play.
Speaker 1: They use safeties, they use linebackers, they use cornerbacks. There's
Speaker 1: no there is no one guy that you can point
Speaker 1: at and go, well, it's gonna be this guy against Kelsey.
Speaker 1: The Eagles were awesome against tight ends in the regular season, Brian.
Speaker 1: They ranked number one in fantasy points allowed, number three
Speaker 1: in tight end receptions, and number one in tight end
Speaker 1: yards allowed. They were awesome in the regular season. Then
Speaker 1: the playoffs came and they've got they got attacked. Zach
Speaker 1: Ertz eleven catches one hundred and four yards and Tyler
Speaker 1: Higbee nine catches fifty four yards. So you know, I
Speaker 1: was ready to have a whole big narrative about how
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey was going to struggle against this great defense
Speaker 1: that doesn't do anything to tight ends, and then Zach
Speaker 1: Ertz blows them up in Tyler Higby. You know, they
Speaker 1: combined for twenty catches in two games.
Speaker 3: So I've got a B grade on Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 4: Can we take a quick second just to talk about
Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey next season. I think feel like he's cornered
Speaker 4: into playing because if if the Chiefs win, he's got
Speaker 4: to go for four, right like he's and if they lose,
Speaker 4: he he can't go out a winner or a loser.
Speaker 4: I feel like, I don't know, so I feel like
Speaker 4: kel you think I think if they went back regarding.
Speaker 3: Us if he wins, I think they I think he
Speaker 3: retires right here.
Speaker 4: Really he doesn't go for four, He's I don't know.
Speaker 4: I only say that. I'm only really worried because I'm
Speaker 4: already drafting best ball teams and I have no interest
Speaker 4: in Kelsey and his cookie cutter ADP right now. But
Speaker 4: I got auto picked Kelsey, and I'm like, dah, I
Speaker 4: don't even know if he's gonna play, So I'm just
Speaker 4: trying to convince myself that he's gonna play next year,
Speaker 4: no matter what happens. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I've got a B grade on Kelsey. The
Speaker 1: other B grade I've got, and it's a bit of
Speaker 1: a nervous one, is well, I'm nervous on Kelsey's B
Speaker 1: grade too, is Xavier Worthy. So Worthy has been basically
Speaker 1: wide receiver one and wide receiver two the past yes
Speaker 1: six in eight games where they've started peppering him with
Speaker 1: targets and almost nobody else. It's but it's a little
Speaker 1: bit tricky to break him down.
Speaker 3: But here's what you need to know.
Speaker 1: He runs from the left, he runs from the right,
Speaker 1: He runs from the slot, and he runs from the
Speaker 1: slot more than anybody else. And when he runs from
Speaker 1: the slot, he's got a match up with Cooper Degene,
Speaker 1: who's been great, shockingly good. He's given is a rookie.
Speaker 1: He's gave up zero touchdowns this year in.
Speaker 3: His coverage Cooper Degene.
Speaker 1: Only five cornerbacks in the entire league that had more
Speaker 1: snaps than Cooper Degene allowed zero touchdowns. It's that kid's
Speaker 1: gonna be He's already great and he's gonna get even better.
Speaker 1: But he does give up some catches. He gives up
Speaker 1: His average game is four catches for thirty two yards,
Speaker 1: which for cornerbacks is actually kind of common. And so
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to call Cooper Degene he's shut down
Speaker 1: corner He's not at that level yet. But Quinn and
Speaker 1: Mitchell's pretty close. You know, when Xavier worthies from the
Speaker 1: left side of the field, that's Mitchell's side of the field,
Speaker 1: and that's going to be really tricky.
Speaker 3: Quinyon Mitchell's fantastic. Get this. I got a good Quinnyon
Speaker 3: Mitchell stat for you. Let me dig this up. I've
Speaker 3: got it right.
Speaker 1: The longest completion against Quinjon Mitchell has been fourteen yards
Speaker 1: or less in fourteen of.
Speaker 3: His last fifteen games. That's nothing, nothing.
Speaker 1: So I've just got to be grade unworthy because he
Speaker 1: gets Pepper to target so much more than everybody else
Speaker 1: on the team.
Speaker 3: From a receiver standpoint.
Speaker 1: The other receiver that I'm intrigued by, and this one
Speaker 1: actually like to be too better than the betting line
Speaker 1: Mark Keith Brown Bryan.
Speaker 3: He has last game, he was up to forty two snaps.
Speaker 1: He has surged past all the other receivers other than
Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy to become the clear, undisputed number two guy,
Speaker 1: and he's also the downfield receiver. In the two playoff games,
Speaker 1: his average distance of target was thirty five four yards
Speaker 1: and fifteen yards, and he runs almost entirely from the outside.
Speaker 1: He's got that tough quinnyon Mitchell matchup on one side
Speaker 1: of the field. The other side of the field though,
Speaker 1: Darius Slay and that's a beatable spot. He's allowed at
Speaker 1: least twenty two yards in a single catch in four
Speaker 1: of the last five games.
Speaker 3: And Hollywood.
Speaker 1: Brown's whole deals, you know, is downfield stuff and breaking
Speaker 1: break a tackle, go run for speed. So I kind
Speaker 1: of like Marquise Brown. I've got a C grade on him.
Speaker 1: Nobody else really matters from the receiving game. I know
Speaker 1: there's a lot of betting interest in Noah Gray. I
Speaker 1: think his line is like thirteen yards or something, so
Speaker 1: I think there's been I've had people tell me there's
Speaker 1: a lot of betting interests in him. But I just
Speaker 1: think that the Eagles on that full season, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: were really too good and you can't go down to
Speaker 1: anybody else. DeAndre Hopkins barely on the field. No Juju
Speaker 1: Smith Schuster is kind of interesting, but that's it's just
Speaker 1: you have to go, like, you know, he was only
Speaker 1: in the field like ten thirteen plays. These guys just
Speaker 1: don't aren't just just aren't impactful enough.
Speaker 4: I I have some betting interest in Juju because you
Speaker 4: don't have to. You don't need much from him. He
Speaker 4: pretty much starts in the plus money. When you're talking,
Speaker 4: it's like two plus catches, three plus catches, thirty plus yards,
Speaker 4: forty plus yards, you're already in the plus money. So
Speaker 4: I'm I'm climbing those mini ladders with Juju. His routes
Speaker 4: have gone up in the playoffs from forty one percent
Speaker 4: versus Houston up to sixty three percent against the Bills.
Speaker 4: So I think it'll I think they're gonna lean on
Speaker 4: him a lot in this game. It was granted it
Speaker 4: was two years ago, but I remember he was on
Speaker 4: the Chiefs two years ago when they won the Super
Speaker 4: Bowl and he had aye had seven catches in that game.
Speaker 4: It was again, it was two years ago. He's been
Speaker 4: away from the team for me a year. But I
Speaker 4: think his experience here, I think we're gonna he's not
Speaker 4: gonna see Cooper Dejean and you know, yeah, he's.
Speaker 1: Gonna be you know who He'll see And I think
Speaker 1: you're hitting on the key thing on Juju Smith Schuster
Speaker 1: and why you could go over his thirteen and a
Speaker 1: half yards. A lot of the times when Juju comes in,
Speaker 1: it's as the third receiver and Travis Kelcey is standing
Speaker 1: up in the slot, and that means that Juju Smith
Speaker 1: Schuster is going to see coverage by Avante Maddox.
Speaker 3: Last year, he.
Speaker 1: Was basically the NFL's worst cornerback. He had an eighty
Speaker 1: three percent catch rate in his coverage and he was
Speaker 1: so bad that the Eagles put first and second round
Speaker 1: picks into cornerback to make sure that Avonte Maddox got
Speaker 1: buried on the depth chart. But he'll come in in
Speaker 1: those dime scenarios where Juju Smith Schuster's on the field
Speaker 1: and running predominantly from the slot against Avonte Maddox.
Speaker 4: So these odds are broke, And listening to these charts, yeah,
Speaker 4: for Juju three plus catches plus two thirty four four
Speaker 4: plus plus six forty five catches plus sixteen eighty Well, but.
Speaker 1: The problem, Brian, the reason I wouldn't ladder Juju he's
Speaker 1: just not on the field is enough. His snapcounts are
Speaker 1: dreadful and they're going the wrong way.
Speaker 3: I've got it.
Speaker 1: I've got it here, I've almost got I will have
Speaker 1: it in two seconds.
Speaker 4: But if you're you're sort of predicting garbage time though
Speaker 4: for a Kansas city as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah and yeah, that's okay, that's a fair point. Here's
Speaker 1: his snapcount.
Speaker 4: Now, I don't like the five catches, not a lock.
Speaker 4: That's why it's basically seventeen to one.
Speaker 3: But I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: His snapcounts higher than I thought. His snapcount is in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Twenty one snaps, thirty three snaps. Okay, I'm
Speaker 1: all over this, I give I'm absolutely I mean, I
Speaker 1: like the over it's only thirteen and a half yards.
Speaker 1: That's basically one catch.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, oh oh his yeah. At twenty he's he's
Speaker 4: at plus money at twenty five plus yards plus one
Speaker 4: sixty four forty plus plus four thirty. And I'm just
Speaker 4: reading my bets. I'm betting all I bet all this
Speaker 4: already fifty plus plus seven sixty if you hit sixty
Speaker 4: plus thirteen to one, So wow.
Speaker 3: That's gonna be. That's possible. It's possible. Okay, let's go
Speaker 3: to the run my big bet.
Speaker 4: Yeah, for that's like the only bets. Personally, I'm really
Speaker 4: on on the Kansas City side, but I.
Speaker 1: Was going to go to the running back. But hold on,
Speaker 1: let me go to let me finish up the passing game.
Speaker 1: With Patrick Mahomes. I've only got to see grade on him,
Speaker 1: and maybe it's my Mahomes fatigue, but I'm not crazy
Speaker 1: about him here, you know, Okay, working his favor. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl is not too big a moment for
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You know, been here before, knows what this
Speaker 1: is all about. But that's also true for many of
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Philadelphia only allowed. Oh all right, I lost
Speaker 1: my spot in my notes. The moment will be too
Speaker 1: big for him. In the past sixteen Eagles games, only
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks topped one touchdown against the Eagles, and in
Speaker 1: those sixteen games, only five quarterbacks managed two hundred passing yards,
Speaker 1: which is a very low bar, although we did see
Speaker 1: in the playoffs Matthew Stafford and Jaden Daniels easily passed
Speaker 1: two hundred passing yards.
Speaker 3: But still, that's a.
Speaker 1: There's it's it's a it's a it's a very tricky
Speaker 1: spot for Mahomes here, and I'm nervous about a lot
Speaker 1: of his receivers. So I've just got the C grade.
Speaker 1: I I almost went be with him because I do
Speaker 1: have bs on Kelsey and Worthy, but I and maybe,
Speaker 1: just maybe, if it is going to be a one
Speaker 1: sided affair, Mahomes is just gonna pass. The volume is
Speaker 1: going to be so high he'll end up with a
Speaker 1: good you know what, I'm talking to myself into a
Speaker 1: B grade for Mahomes because I don't think the running
Speaker 1: game is going to be a factor here for two reasons.
Speaker 1: I believe the Chiefs will be trailing and then number
Speaker 1: two Kareem Hunts not good.
Speaker 4: Let's talk about I think we'll see. Like I said,
Speaker 4: with Hurts, I think in general, quarterbacks just run more.
Speaker 4: In the Super Bowl, I think I think Mahomes could
Speaker 4: do some. He can clearly do damage on the ground
Speaker 4: when healthy, and he is healthy right now. So I
Speaker 4: think that Hurts might lead. I mean, Mahomes might lead
Speaker 4: the Chiefs and rushing in this game in yard.
Speaker 1: I wonder that's probably a specials bet you can make.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes will lead the Chiefs and rushing yards and
Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if that if it worked
Speaker 1: out that way. So here's where I I don't like
Speaker 1: Kareem and Pachecko's just off radar. You know, I had
Speaker 1: hoped and regular listeners know I got this wrong. I
Speaker 1: really thought that Hunt's struggles would translate into Pacheco getting
Speaker 1: more carries. I just think Pacheco's not not right. Something
Speaker 1: is not right with his injury problem, because he looks
Speaker 1: like a totally different guy than every other Isaiah Pachecko
Speaker 1: we saw prior to his injury. So let's talk Kareem Hunt.
Speaker 1: He has scored touchdowns in four straight games, but Philly
Speaker 1: only gave up five touchdowns all regular season on the
Speaker 1: ground and just one in the three playoff games this year. Hunt,
Speaker 1: he struggled badly throughout most of the regular season. Get this,
Speaker 1: and this is part of my and I've you've heard.
Speaker 3: These stats before. You've done a bunch of these shows
Speaker 3: with me.
Speaker 1: But among the twenty three runners that had Kareem Hunts
Speaker 1: two hundred carries this year, here's where he ranks. Yards
Speaker 1: gained Kareem Hunt dead last, yards per carry, dead last,
Speaker 1: avoided tackle rate dead last, and yards after contact second
Speaker 1: to last. Kareem Hunt is simply not very good. And
Speaker 1: he's he's gotten He's rolled up some pretty good box
Speaker 1: scores these past two games against Houston and against Buffalo.
Speaker 1: But Eagles are way better run defense than those teams are.
Speaker 1: Those teams struggled against the run all year. Eagles are
Speaker 1: top ten in run defense success rate, yards per carry allowed,
Speaker 1: run stuff win rate, miss tackle rate, and they're number
Speaker 1: one in run defense EPA.
Speaker 3: So I I just I.
Speaker 1: Don't think Kareem Hunt gets much of anything done here
Speaker 1: from a fantasy standpoint.
Speaker 4: I've got to go to get all the passing. Passing work.
Speaker 1: Well, I thought that too, but pe Ryan's barely on
Speaker 1: the field anymore.
Speaker 3: It's weird. He's been largely phased out of this offense.
Speaker 1: Just ten snaps and eleven snaps, and most of those
Speaker 1: are on special teams. In the past two weeks, I
Speaker 1: had been touting p Rne and his reception numbers to
Speaker 1: last each of the previous two playoff games. We needed
Speaker 1: to go to the and it was just like one catch.
Speaker 1: He got the one catch on the final drive of
Speaker 1: the game last week.
Speaker 4: I don't know that's what That's just what I'm remembering.
Speaker 4: Probably it was like a thirty yard catch too, wasn't
Speaker 4: it was? It was that's significant in the playoffs when
Speaker 4: it comes to fantasy.
Speaker 3: Yep, that matters.
Speaker 4: Yeah for sure.
Speaker 3: All right, So that's uh.
Speaker 1: I think that's Pacheco, as I mentioned, not a factor.
Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins not a factor. Yeah, it's uh.
Speaker 1: For Hopkins, you have to have a touchdown and I
Speaker 1: could see them because he's a big body guy. I
Speaker 1: could see him trying to trying to get the ball
Speaker 1: to him in the end zone. But I wouldn't risk
Speaker 1: it for somebody who's just not playing on the field
Speaker 1: that much. DeAndre Hopkins played twelve snaps last week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, Juju's of the play I mean between those two, at.
Speaker 3: Least, I think so too. I think so too.
Speaker 4: Yep, you gotta love YouTube.
Speaker 3: I do. I like him here you want to give
Speaker 3: a final score.
Speaker 4: I feel like we got two good defense this year.
Speaker 4: I mean, we were talking all offense. But I think
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna go.
Speaker 5: It's gonna be lower than what is the over under
Speaker 5: at again, pull it up real quick, forty like forty eight, forty.
Speaker 4: Eight and a half. I'm gonna twenty four to twenty one.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, you think it's a lot closer than I do,
Speaker 1: all Right, I'm on thirty four to seventeen.
Speaker 4: Okay, so you got the over.
Speaker 3: I got the over and I got the Eagles in
Speaker 3: a one sided game.
Speaker 4: Well, I hope Dallas Goddard wins the MVP of that game.
Speaker 3: I do too, for your sake. That would be one
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty five to one.
Speaker 4: Yeah, one one.
Speaker 1: Wow, Titan's never won it. There's that, But this could be.
Speaker 1: This could be the moment.
Speaker 4: That means their due. And I started. I think it was.
Speaker 4: I think it was on. It doesn't matter who was on.
Speaker 4: I think there was a prop bet I saw where
Speaker 4: you can bet tighten or MVP by position, so you
Speaker 4: know you get both teams. Yeah, tight ended and end
Speaker 4: fourteen to one, so you know you get you obviously
Speaker 4: getting Kelsey, but uh yeah, Kelsey didn't move the needle
Speaker 4: enough for me to take that. I just think put
Speaker 4: it in the Goddard Goddard stock one twenty to one. Yeah,
Speaker 4: I like shoot for the moon.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I think Kelsey retires, and I think he
Speaker 1: does not propose to Taylor Swift at the end of
Speaker 1: the game. That's a better you can get action on
Speaker 1: that somewhere.
Speaker 4: That he doesn't proposed that he does.
Speaker 1: Or doesn't propose. We talked about it with on last
Speaker 1: week's show with Matt Harrison, because it's in he found
Speaker 1: odds on it, and he put his odds onto his
Speaker 1: super Bowl sheet.
Speaker 4: Well, it's got to be offshore odds.
Speaker 3: Who knows, Yeah, it might it probably is offshore odds.
Speaker 4: They could start the Kelsey Swift teams can start some
Speaker 4: kind of like gambling conglomerate to really control that the outcome,
Speaker 4: of course, and got a web across the world just
Speaker 4: placing bets on the I always thinking about that, like
Speaker 4: like the like the the over under on the length
Speaker 4: of the national anthem, Like if I if I'm the
Speaker 4: artist and I see that, I'm like, all right, so
Speaker 4: I gotta sing for this long and I know I
Speaker 4: can guarantee when as much money. Now you can't place
Speaker 4: the bets of course if you're we're singing the national
Speaker 4: anthem this year.
Speaker 1: But so we we talked a lot about Matt's Super
Speaker 1: Bowl prop game in the last In the last episode.
Speaker 3: Did you see I don't know, I don't know if
Speaker 3: you know if.
Speaker 1: You saw this, the NFL shut He was using the
Speaker 1: word super Bowl on his sheet, and the NFL contacted
Speaker 1: him and made him change it.
Speaker 4: That's awesome, actual seat like Goodell sign it.
Speaker 3: I'm sure it's his.
Speaker 1: I'm sure it's his legal team, and you know they're
Speaker 1: looking for trademark infringements.
Speaker 3: So now now it's Matt Harrison's.
Speaker 1: Uh big game, you know, prop bet sheet or whatever.
Speaker 1: I can't many figure things to worry about.
Speaker 3: Then Matt Harrison's prop sheet.
Speaker 4: Well I was I've actually been shocked in the past
Speaker 4: how much money he's made off that thing.
Speaker 3: And good for him.
Speaker 4: The NFL they booming anyone, I don't. They don't care
Speaker 4: if it's a couple. Yeah, no, super for you, no kidding.
Speaker 1: Well, look, I understand they have to protect the millions
Speaker 1: and millions of dollars that sponsors pay them for the
Speaker 1: right to be connected to the NFL and use the
Speaker 1: word super Bowl. But you wouldn't think that their diligence
Speaker 1: would go so deep that it would hit Matt's prop
Speaker 1: bed sheet.
Speaker 3: But there you go, it did.
Speaker 4: I don't go down the rabbit holes of the props
Speaker 4: too much. I did see one. I was intrigued by that.
Speaker 4: I bet I think it was like six to one
Speaker 4: on any kick hitting the crossbar. Now, crossbar bar or
Speaker 4: the post both.
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, so don't so if there's a doink
Speaker 3: you it pays off? What is it? Six to one?
Speaker 4: It was like six to one and it doesn't say
Speaker 4: like miss make just got to make contact. So now
Speaker 4: you see a doink. Cheered for me.
Speaker 1: Everyone, butker is is not going to do that because
Speaker 1: Butker is awesome.
Speaker 3: Elliott could absolutely doin. But six to one is terrible.
Speaker 3: Odds on that, I think.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeh, let me just ask yourself. It's one out every six,
Speaker 1: you know, what is that fourteen percent or something of
Speaker 1: the of the kicks hit the upright no way.
Speaker 4: And you don't know and you expect but yeah, then
Speaker 4: but you don't know. You're gonna hopefully see six kicks.
Speaker 4: You know they're all independent of themselves. I don't know. Yeah, whatever.
Speaker 4: It was probably a stupid bit, but it'll be sure.
Speaker 4: It'll be fun if there's a doin. Could be the
Speaker 4: most excited I'll ever be for a doink kick.
Speaker 1: That That is probably true. That's probably true. We'll have
Speaker 1: fun for the super Bowl, you two listeners. We hope
Speaker 1: you have a great time and we'll find out. We'll
Speaker 1: find out how close to correct we are on all
Speaker 1: of this stuff. It all sounds good. You validated, you valued,
Speaker 1: you're you know, you're the way you broke down. The
Speaker 1: Eagles validated a lot of my own research. So we're yeah,
Speaker 1: I just swm together.
Speaker 4: We did not find like one edge for the Chiefs
Speaker 4: in this game, who are all again the favorites. It's
Speaker 4: just it's Mahomes magic.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's it. And coaching.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, if it comes down to coaching,
Speaker 1: Andy Reid Steve Spagnolo are obviously awesome at what they do,
Speaker 1: so that's part of it as well, Right, yep, it's
Speaker 1: an intangible that we can't what are the odds?
Speaker 3: I don't think.
Speaker 1: I'm sure this is bettable someplace. But how awesome would
Speaker 1: this be?
Speaker 3: The Eagles run the Philly Special again and it.
Speaker 4: Works, or the Chiefs run it against them.
Speaker 3: Oh God, that'd be awesome too.
Speaker 1: Chiefs run against them and it works, And you know,
Speaker 1: you think about how many times the Chiefs do stuff
Speaker 1: with like Travis Kelcey in motion at the goal line,
Speaker 1: With Travis Kelcey in motion behind the goal line, getting
Speaker 1: carries or shovel passes. It's it is within it is within,
Speaker 1: It is within the realm of possibility.
Speaker 3: And oh would that be delicious?
Speaker 4: Steve Spagnolo though, just you're bringing back the good old
Speaker 4: days of the Giants for the younger ones out there
Speaker 4: who don't know. Spags was the DC for the Giants
Speaker 4: when they beat They beat the Patriots the first time,
Speaker 4: the biggest upset in Super Bowl history that the historic
Speaker 4: Patriots offense just shut down. Spags that.
Speaker 3: He's good, he's good. Our friend Ben Lee he didn't
Speaker 3: like him.
Speaker 1: He got a head coaching g Yeah, oh yeah, he
Speaker 1: was that coach for the ram.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well that sounds about right. Didn't last long, though, How.
Speaker 1: Do I not how do we not know that off
Speaker 1: the top of our head? This is this is now, customer,
Speaker 1: It wasn't almost worse than my math from a few
Speaker 1: minutes ago.
Speaker 4: There wasn't much success. I'll look it up real quick.
Speaker 3: I'm looking it up right now too. Rams.
Speaker 4: Yeah, they when they were that was like the end
Speaker 4: of their time in Saint Louis, I believe.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: He two thousand and nine through twenty eleven. Pat Shermer
Speaker 1: was his offensive coordinator and the key players on his team.
Speaker 1: Then Mark was his quarterback. Remember those years with a
Speaker 1: little Kyle Bowler mixed in and this was this is
Speaker 1: when you they still had Steven Jackson.
Speaker 4: He was good, Brian, Oh yeah, Steven Jackson. He was
Speaker 4: kind of like the the Andre Johnson that he was
Speaker 4: just never on a good team with those Rams teams.
Speaker 4: It was sad they were. Spagnolo was ten and thirty
Speaker 4: eight three years one in fifteen, seven and nine and
Speaker 4: then two and fourteen. Yeah, Stephen Jackson was elite, just
Speaker 4: always on bad teams. Then he went to what uh
Speaker 4: Atlanta at the end of his career, but he was
Speaker 4: he was at out of gas at that point. Yeah,
Speaker 4: he was had better teams.
Speaker 3: Wow, get this stuff.
Speaker 1: You forget the rams leading receiver in Steve Spagnola's first
Speaker 1: year there, his leading receiver was Donnie Avery with five
Speaker 1: hundred eighty nine yards.
Speaker 3: That was the leading receiver, Donnie Avery.
Speaker 4: That's that's like on par with what Sam Donald was
Speaker 4: dealing with his rookie year with the Jets. Wow, I
Speaker 4: had to bring Sam Donald into this conversation.
Speaker 3: Of course, you had to turn it back to Sam Donald.
Speaker 4: But uh, yeah, yeah, no one was having any success
Speaker 4: with the that is uh, the Rams were literally on
Speaker 4: their way out of town. In those days, there was
Speaker 4: no hope for anyone Saint Louis.
Speaker 3: No, probably not.
Speaker 1: Then the next year was Sam Bradford was the uh
Speaker 1: was made his uh Way made his Rams debut after that,
Speaker 1: and the leading receiver then Danny Almandola, who I barely
Speaker 1: remembered was a Ram, but he was, and he led
Speaker 1: the team with six hundred eighty nine.
Speaker 4: He was probably the big off season signing that year,
Speaker 4: coming over from the Patriots. I'm sure I'll never forget
Speaker 4: uh Bradford, whos he went to Philly after the Rams.
Speaker 4: Remember when we were doing the Yeah, they were doing
Speaker 4: Fantasy Football Weekly a lot show at the Fair, and
Speaker 4: the news broke right before we went on about how
Speaker 4: they traded, like it was after the Bridgewater injury, Right
Speaker 4: we traded. Yeah. We were just sitting there like, whoa,
Speaker 4: we got to talk change up the rundown of the show.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no kidding.
Speaker 4: We're in Minnesota, that's at the fair. People want to
Speaker 4: talk about this now?
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, all right, my man, let's uh, let's call
Speaker 1: it a show. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll be back
Speaker 1: next week. Brian and I are are the next two.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a lot of charging Brian the next
Speaker 1: upcoming here, and then after that, it's going to be
Speaker 1: just crazy amounts of Thorne Eystrom on this show as
Speaker 1: we turned our attention to the rookie class.
Speaker 4: Th worst time to shine. That's why you put on
Speaker 4: this planet. That's a right, basically the months of March
Speaker 4: April May.
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week, everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy
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