WEBVTT - Jay Inslee On Why Trump’s INCOMPETENCE Will Hurt Americans 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:07.760 Well, welcome to the first full week of May. Here's 0:00:07.800 --> 0:00:11.000 the most important thing you need to know about this week. 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:17.000 Sunday is Mother's Day, sons and husband's Sunday is Mother's Day. 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:19.560 You know what that means. You still got time to 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.040 do all the delivery type things when you're hearing this podcast. 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:27.960 This is a public service message for myself, my son, 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.960 and all the husbands and sons out there who can't 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:35.120 wait till Saturday or Friday night to try to pull 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:40.240 this off. For the mothers, the grandmother's, Hi mom, and 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:43.840 all the other special moms of all sorts in your life. 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:47.960 So keep that in mind. I look forward to President 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.400 Trump going on truth social and wishing all the mothers, 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:55.080 even the losers, loser mothers, and the hater mothers, happy 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.520 Mother's Day. I'm sure that will be coming coming quite soon. 0:00:58.560 --> 0:01:00.640 But I thought, if I can do anything for you 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:06.479 as a public service, it is that it is Actually 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:09.560 took a bit of a quick weekend respite. So what 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.039 did that really mean. It meant I got to navigate 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.319 Newark Airport. And if you followed my x feed at all, 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:20.399 you will know this. In the entire Northeast corridor, here 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:24.800 is the bottom line, all of the tri state leaders 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.000 need to get together. This is a mess. The train 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.920 situation is a mess. The Newark situation is a mess. 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:37.600 This is as big of a travel corridor as there is. 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:42.039 This is what makes people either trust government or not 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:46.560 trust government. Get this stuff right and they're amazed and impressed. 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:50.120 Get this stuff wrong, and this is what sort of 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:53.560 can leave a mark. And let's just say, look, there 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:55.920 has definitely been I think the Northeast Corridor has a 0:01:55.960 --> 0:02:00.240 few disadvantages. Politically, it is considered a bluer area. It 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:05.440 is made getting sometimes Republican support for various transportation projects 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:09.120 that would be helpful in the Northeast corridor not necessarily 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:12.320 helpful in other parts of the country. It is tough 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:16.520 to get bipartisan support for this sometime. But look, this 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.440 is an important economic engine. The Northeast Corridor is the 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:23.360 gateway to this country when people come in. So it 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.360 is something everybody and of course it's really important when 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.280 it affects me, right, because that's what that's why we've 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:33.440 all started podcasts in order to get our own grievances 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.640 out of the way. So what grinds my gears is 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:39.600 that I semits. But the point is it is a 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:44.280 reminder of how government leaves an impression on the average person. 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:46.920 You may not be paying attention to politics, but you 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.440 pay attention when you can't get from point A to 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:53.640 point B. And this is the type of stuff. When 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:58.120 people are paying attention to government not working, it means 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:02.920 you have somehow interrupted their lives. Right. There's sort of 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:05.720 two types of voters, those that pay attention and those 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:10.559 that tune in on election day. And if you're disrupting 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:12.680 those that tune in on election day, they're the ones 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:17.079 that can turn election days into blue waves or red waves, 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:20.200 depending on who is in power. And that brings me 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.360 a little bit. As much as I'd like to wax 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:26.160 eloquently about the Alcatraz decision, I will just say one 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:30.200 thing about Alcatraz and the movie business. This idea of 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:35.040 tifying all movies that come from overseas note when they 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:38.280 came out. I don't think Donald Trump thought as Meet 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.160 the Press interview went very well. I think two things 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:44.360 really stayed sticky and I think will stick to him 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:47.800 from that interview. In particular, asked about following the Constitution, 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:49.720 I don't know, even though he actually takes an oath 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:52.000 of office that says he promised he's going to defend 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.200 and protect the Constitution. He said, I don't know to 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:58.280 that when it came to following the Constitution. And then 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:00.960 he continues to double down in this idea that he's 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:03.760 going to play mister Scrooge and well, you know, two 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.240 dollars is enough. Well what about the person that can't 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:09.680 even afford the two dollars? What about that family? And 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.240 what's he going to say to them? It is an 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:18.279 unusual and watching sort of former Republicans who do not 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.919 like the idea of government deciding how many of anything 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.679 you can have, you can you know, sort of this idea, 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:28.359 this is this is what communism is about. Let's limit 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:32.120 the resources. You will hold back, you will decide, you know, 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:35.560 hoard and and you know, you get two pieces, two 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.000 loaves of bread for this family of six, but a 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:40.560 family of four gets one loaf of bread because that's 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.839 the rules from central from the central government. It is 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.839 a really weird place for President Trump to be going, 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.880 and it only I think invites more problems for the 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:55.600 Republicans as a whole in general. And again it continues 0:04:55.680 --> 0:05:01.720 this uncomfortable ideological realignment that's taking place inside what we're 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:04.400 supposed to call our conservative party. But we've been going 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:08.400 through this. What is a conservative right? I always, you know, 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:14.320 the first word matters here conserve, which is less government, 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:17.479 you conserve the amount of And in some ways, sure, 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:20.680 he's trying to whack government with the sort of the 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:24.799 chainsaw and doge, but he also wants to use weaponize 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:28.159 government when it suits him. He wants to strengthen government 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:30.839 when it suits him. Decide who gets a doll and 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:35.360 who doesn't get a doll, Decide when there's a military 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.120 parade for his birthday, and things like that. So what 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.080 I would point out is I think it is not 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.200 an accident that by Sunday evening he needed a couple 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:46.240 of shiny metal object type of stories, and Alcatraz is 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:48.800 one of those shiny metal object stories as well as 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:53.599 somehow attacking Hollywood that would feed his base. And at 0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:57.159 the same time, perhaps you know, do his little Jedi 0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:00.560 mind trick on the news cycle. Pay no attention to 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.160 what I said about the Constitution, pay no attention to 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:08.039 what I said about about restricting the amount of toys 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:13.560 that come for Christmas. Instead, look over here, look over there, 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:17.160 welcome to the rock. So for me, I look at 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:23.440 the Alcatraz float and the and the movie business as 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:26.560 simply distraction items. And this is what he's quite good at, right, 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:28.760 this is what makes him. He's so wired for a 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.440 short attention span world. He has sort of built. I 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:34.960 always said this, He's been built this way his whole life. 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:40.000 Our media environment just caught up to his short attention span. 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:44.240 And now he is what his mainstream fits right into 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:47.839 Trump's mindset. So he sort of the moment the moment 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.359 grew to him. He didn't meet the moment the moment 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:54.920 met him, and here we are. So that's the way 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.240 I sort of compartmentalize those two. And look, this isn't 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:01.680 easy the decision. How do you cover an now Alcatraze. 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:05.080 It's a ridiculous story. It's too small. Anything on an 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.120 island is a big you know, going to cost a 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:09.480 lot of money. This is you know, I have no 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:11.920 doubt in his head. He's just excited by the idea 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:16.160 of America's worst criminals being, you know, just a few 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:18.679 miles off the coast of San Francisco, his favorite city, 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:22.360 wink wink. But I thought I would focus before my 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:24.840 guests on this episode's gonna be Jay Insley. In fact, 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:26.960 the next couple of days, I'm gonna have governors from 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:29.000 both sides of the Ay. I've got Jay Insley coming up, 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:31.920 got John Kasick coming up to sort of two guys 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.360 that have run for president, two guys that have were successful, 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:37.480 won a three term governor, won a two term governor. 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.560 You know there was it wasn't when I first started 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:45.120 covering politics, Washington State was a swing state. It has 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.080 moved sharply. A lot of the coast have moved sharply. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.520 Back to nineteen ninety two, California was a swing state, 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:55.600 was considered a swing state. But what Jay Insley did 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.240 three terms in a row, I believe Washington State right 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.920 now has the longest streak of one part rule for 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:05.320 governor going He had certainly had a very consequential twelve years. 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:08.240 Ran for president on a single issue, climate change. It's 0:08:08.280 --> 0:08:13.080 an interesting conversation and he certainly has his belief on 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:15.480 the role that the Democratic Party and government ought to 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.559 play in this issue of climate change. And he certainly 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:22.560 has some strong feelings about Donald Trump. I won't tease 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.840 the John Kasik interview. That'll be coming up later in 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:28.040 the week. But because I have a couple of governors 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.920 who are very camp you know, sort of political guys, 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:33.080 I thought this would be a good time to sort 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:35.920 of take the temperature of campaign twenty twenty six, if 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.080 you will. As you know, the last time we chatted, 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:40.719 I threw in a couple of other Democrats that had 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:44.679 a very strong first hundred days, in particular Abigail Spaanbergert, 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:49.200 who is now the clear favorite to be the next 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:52.440 governor of Virginia. And there's a variety of reasons for that. 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:56.240 One is I think she ideologically fits. She's in the 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.040 much closer to the center, which is I think in 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:01.960 these light blue and light red states is where the 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:03.920 Democrats have to be if they are going to have 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:07.720 a chance to successfully win statewide. Number one and number two, 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:11.800 government workers are just really ticked off at this administration. 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:16.760 Whenever government workers are fired up to vote, that's usually 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:19.559 bad news for Republicans in the state of Virginia, and 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:23.640 so that was obviously one of the reasons there. Look 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.280 right now in campaign twenty twenty six, the biggest news 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:30.199 over the last ninety six hours was another recruiting failure 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.840 for the Republicans when it came to some key Senate races, 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:36.280 specifically what's going on in Georgia where the governor there, 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:40.360 Brian Kemp, passed on a bid to take on incumbent 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:44.400 Democratic Senator John Ossa. And I think Kemp's decision when 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.839 you couple it with the decision of now former governor 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:50.480 Chris Sununu in New Hampshire deciding an open seat, not 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:52.679 even having to challenge the sitting incumbent. This would be 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:55.840 an open seat race for him, he'd likely be the 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:59.640 front runner right away, but he decided not to. And 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.160 I think there's there's a couple of reasons. One is, 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:05.000 and this is something that I've experienced over the years. 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.280 Any of the senators that used to be governors, the 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.840 path from governor to senator. You talk to any former 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:13.480 governor who's serving in the Senate and you ask them 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:16.640 which job they like better. None of them hesitate. They 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.240 in fact now they hate the Senate. The way the 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.800 Senate works, it's dysfunctional. It's not bipartisan anymore. It's still 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:25.680 more bipartisan in the House, but it's less bipartisan than 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:29.640 it ever was. It's hard to get stuff done because 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:33.200 the party leadership runs the Senate. Now, committee chairs don't 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:35.800 have the power they used to have. The Senate is 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:40.160 a terrible is a terrible place to be compared to 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.840 what it was just twenty years ago, thirty years ago. 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:45.760 It is not the same place. It is not a 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:50.920 deliberative body. They don't deliberate squat anymore. Yes, you might 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:55.640 occasionally get an interesting day long filibuster, it's about the 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:59.040 only time you see any deliberation. If there is any, 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.480 you don't see real debate. That would be kind of nice. 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:03.720 There was a time that actually happened in the Senate, 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:07.520 even in my lifetime. But this isn't This isn't the 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:10.240 way it is. So it is not surprising to me 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.240 if Brian Kemp calls up any former Senators that he 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:15.280 knows or current senators that he knows, what do you 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:16.840 think of the place, they are going to tell them 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:21.440 it stinks. Ask the current list of governors will complain 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.760 about the place. Mark Warner missus being governor, John Hickenlooper 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:28.800 missus being governor, Mike Bround's missus being governor. So and 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:30.600 none of those guys will tell you that the Senate 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.319 is a better job than that. So I don't want 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:35.520 to sit here and just simply say these are a 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.880 couple of Republican governors who assess the political landscape and 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.520 it's a bad year to run. Even if it were 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:45.120 a good year to run, the Senate doesn't feel like 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:47.560 it's going to be a great place to be. But 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:49.440 the second thing that I is going on, here's the 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:54.240 political landscape. I mean, if you're you know, it's pretty 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:58.240 If recent history is any guide, twenty twenty six is 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:01.360 going to be advantage de rats. The question is how 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:04.720 big of an advantage is it a small advantage? You know, 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.360 the way it was in the in some races sort 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:09.240 of in twenty twenty two, it was sort of a 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.400 mixed bag with a slight advantage of the Republicans. They 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:12.959 always had a little more wind at the back. That's 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.120 why they won the won the House, but they couldn't 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:19.600 pull off the Senate, mostly due to bad nominees sort 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.360 of trumpet trumpet candidates that were just too trumpy when 0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:24.800 Trump wasn't on the ballot. And that's the other thing. 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:26.640 With Trump not on the ballot, we've seen a couple 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:31.120 of midterms when that happens, Republican performance goes down, Democratic 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:34.120 performance seems to grow, So you have to assess the 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.800 situation that way, So you know it is it is 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:41.560 all of a sudden if you're a Republican challenger, but 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:44.600 you have to behave like the incumbent because it's really 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.880 an election about the party and the White House. So 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.280 I understand why it's not appealing to quote unquote be 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:55.400 a challenger but have to behave or get treated by 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.680 the by the electorate as an incumbent. And that's what 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:03.720 both Chris Nuknew and Brian him would be walking into there. Now, look, 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.880 the Senate map is not great. Not only do they 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:08.840 have to win four seats in order to take the Senate, 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:13.360 they have to defend four open seats plus the Georgia 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:17.040 Senate seat with John ast Off, which is going to 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.200 be noisy feat. So you're essentially looking at five races. 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:23.839 The four opens Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Illinois. And look, 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.160 do I think Illinois is going to be that competitive 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.000 at the end of the day. Probably not, But it's 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:30.079 an open seat and it's going to be a really 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.360 crowded Democratic primary, and what if the Democrats nominate somebody 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.200 too far to the left that gives an opening to somebody, 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.920 It's unlikely, considering that MAGA seems to be the more 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:43.800 dominant force in Republican primaries. Rarely does do moderate Republicans 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:48.320 get through. I guess Glenn Younkins sort of kind of 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.000 was at least less MAGA E than most, which is 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.200 why he was able to, I think, perform, you know, 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.600 pull off the upset that he did in Virginia governor 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.920 back in twenty twenty one. So you look at that, 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.160 and that's a tough An area. And then you look 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:03.360 at the Republican seats in theory that are in the 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.840 competitive states. Right you have Maine and North Carolina are 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.160 really the only two Republican health seats that jump out 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.120 at you. And so then the question is what are 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.840 the ones that can put into play? Well, this is 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:18.840 where I think if you're the Democrats, I don't think 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.880 there's a plausible path yet to the majority. But here's 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:26.280 the thing it has The path for the Democrats has 0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:30.200 gotten better than it was one hundred days ago. Right, Yes, 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:32.800 they've got these open seat problems, but they don't have 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:37.360 major challengers, good challengers and Republican candidates. I think they 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:39.320 didn't get the best candidate they could have gotten in 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.560 Michigan Senate. I think John James would have been better 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.920 than Mike Rodgers. There. They're not getting their strongest candidate. 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.880 In New Hampshire, They're not getting their strongest candidate in Georgia. 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.440 It is Minnesota is just a mess of a situation 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:56.960 for the Republican Party there. And then I, you know, 0:14:57.040 --> 0:15:01.360 do I are there some modern Republicans you know, on 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.280 a previous on Earth too? Adam Kinsinger is running for 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:08.000 the US Senate in Illinois and would have a boxer's 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.240 chance in a off year like this. But Adam Kinsinger's 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.600 no Republican anymore. And I think we all know that 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.920 that ship has sailed a long time ago. You know, 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.320 I could have seen a Darren Lehood put that race 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:24.440 in play again in a non trumpy atmosphere, but I 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.400 can't imagine it. So you have that situation. Then you 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:32.800 have these primary challengers to sitting Republican incumbents in Louisiana, 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:37.480 in Texas and North Carolina. Well, I do think Texas 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.720 can get put into play if Ken Paxton knocks off 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:41.680 Cornan in the primary. I don't think Cornyn is beatable 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.720 in a general election at all by any Democrat. I 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.360 think a lot of Democrats could be Ken Paxton. I 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:49.760 think he's that polarizing and I think he becomes that 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.000 problematic for the Republicans if he gets there. And I 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.320 don't know how corn beats him, I really don't, but 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:59.440 we'll see. And I'll tell you this, Cornyn will not 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.680 be out and he'll not be outworked. And I think, 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.440 and in some ways having he personally clearly doesn't like 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.960 Ken Paxton has no respect for his character, I imagine he's motivated. 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.040 You throw the fact that there are two appointed senators 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:16.320 having to seek election on their own for the first time, 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.400 one in Florida in the Rubio seat. Ashley Moody is 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.320 going to be sitting in that one. And then of 0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:25.120 course you have the Ohio situation, which is a special 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:30.520 where we have John Houston filling that seat. And I'll 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.840 tell you it's Ohio. You know, if shared Brown runs again, 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:37.080 that puts potentially that seat in place. So again, what's 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.440 the path look like? They got to somehow win get 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:42.720 North carolinagain. They're going to need a governor to act 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:44.920 a former governor who want to run on the Democratic side, 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.800 Roy Cooper, so they have to win North Carolina, they'd 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.200 have to go win Maine. The governor there, Janet Mills, 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:54.520 is pondering that race against Susan Collins. I'm one of 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.880 those folks who thinks, you know, if you follow sort 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.800 of New England Republican politics closely, there was a time 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.040 when and the Chafees were impossible to beat in Rhode 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:05.520 Island until finally a mid term happened in twenty oh 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.760 six and Sheldon white House knocked off a Chafee and 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.080 it's the last time a Republican held a Senate seat 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.639 in Rhode Island. I have a feeling that could be 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:15.880 what happens to Susan Collins. She's still probably the only 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.240 Republican that can hold that seat, but eventually her party 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.720 ID may be the reason she loses. And I'll tell 0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:24.119 you this, if Paula Page being on the ballot just 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:27.560 in one House race, I think that's actually a net 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:31.640 negative for the Republican ticket. He's polarizing, He will bring 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:34.359 out the wrong type of voter if you're a Republican. 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:38.160 I think this really hurts Susan Collins. With PAULA Page 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.800 sitting there and frankly, I'm I'm not one hundred percent. 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:44.479 If you told me by the end of the summer 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:47.600 she's announced that she's not going to run again, it 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:50.680 wouldn't completely blow me away. I still think it's a 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:54.000 little early in the calendar and that's still possible. So again, 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:55.560 I got to find my math here, right. So they 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.000 need four seats. They have to win North Carolina, win Maine, 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:01.199 hold all their vulnerable seats, seats I told you about, 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:05.240 and I'm actually pretty confident, barring in debacle here, they 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:08.199 could do that. That's now more realistic than ever, especially 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:10.840 when they've had Sonunu and Kemp pass. So then you're 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:14.080 looking like, where do they find two more seats? Maybe 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:19.200 there's Texas. I'm skeptical on Florida, and I'm somewhat skeptical 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.880 about Ohio. I always say somewhat. I think if the 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:26.040 ticket is Ramaswami at the top for governor, I think 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:29.199 he's pretty polarizing and I think he's he's more like 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:33.399 Vance and he'll underperform an average Republican. Does he underperform 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:36.439 enough to bring down the ticket and to give a 0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:40.320 shared Brown a shot? Maybe maybe we'll see, And I also, 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:44.200 But here's another sort of counter counterfactual there in Ohio. 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:46.360 Shared Brown may be quite supportive of some of these 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:50.280 tariffs of Trump and can he message can Hess? Can 0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:52.600 he somehow walk that line in Ohio? I don't know. 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.000 So the thing that I would watch out for is, 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.920 I do think if Democrats want a path, they need 0:18:57.960 --> 0:18:59.800 one more. They need to put at least one or 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:01.679 two more Senate seats in play. I'm going to give 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:04.600 you four states where I think they're going to attempt 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:11.159 to try to put two of these foreign play. Mississippi, Iowa, Nebraska, 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.200 and Kansas. The farm states. I've talked to you about 0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.120 this before. Between the tariffs and the AID funding cut off, 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:21.399 farmers have been hit hard. Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa are 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:24.040 going to pay a price for the Trump economy that's 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:29.399 steeper than most other states. Does that harm incumbents there? 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:31.960 And I'll throw one other thing at you. There's been 0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:35.600 interesting speculation that if win Donald Trump finally gives up 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.680 on Pete hag Set and the smart money in DC 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.040 is when, not if He's going to do it on 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:44.120 his timeline, not on the media's timeline. But we saw 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:48.760 it already with Mike Waltz. The backup candidates probably Jony 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:53.040 Ernst more than Tom Cotton. I know Cotton wants it. 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:57.639 I think Laura Lumer has Cotton, has got Cotton in 0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.520 her crosshairs, and I think Cotton becomes an on starter 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:03.119 for some of MAGA world. That's not the case with 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.080 Joony Ernst, who sort of tries to find her way 0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:09.640 a little bit closer, you know, a little more MAGA adjacent, 0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:14.040 I think than Cotton is. And I think the there's 0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:16.960 always a I think MAGA would love to be able 0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:20.960 to say a Republican woman was the first woman head 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:24.560 of the Pentagon. So the point is, then, all of 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:26.919 a sudden, you have appointment. Why is this speculation up 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.240 and running? Will Zach Nunn, who is a Republican member 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:32.879 of Congress in the third district in Iowa. It is 0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:36.879 the swingiest of districts, it is. Frankly, he's probably the 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:40.000 most vulnerable Republican in Iowa if he runs for reelection. 0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:44.199 Decided not to run for the open governor's race in 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:45.840 that state, which a lot of people thought he would 0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:48.960 jump into that and didn't say right away he's running 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:52.560 for reelection. So look, there's a lot of chatter here 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:57.359 about Ernest Pentagon. Maybe she's not running it. Who knows, 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:00.239 is none holding out for that. It's just something keep 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:04.159 an eye on. Look, it's not that long ago that 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:08.119 Iowa elected Democrats statewide, but you know, but in the 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:11.160 Trump era, it's been a lot tougher for them. But again, 0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:14.239 without Trump on the ballot, these are places. So as 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.800 you can see here, I'm trying to create the best 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:18.760 possible path here I can come up with their Democrats, 0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:21.320 and they're still probably a seat or too short, and 0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:25.000 that's why we're not there yet. But if they get 0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:30.280 competitive candidates in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, if they can 0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:34.400 put two of those four realistically in play, then all 0:21:34.400 --> 0:21:37.080 of a sudden, the path is there still a long shot. 0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:43.400 You're still looking at the you know, it's about I 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:45.840 think the Indiana Pacers have a better shot at winning 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:49.919 the NBA title than the Democrats do of winning the Senate. 0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:53.280 But I think the Indiana Pacers have a boxer's chance 0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.960 to win the NBA title. So it's not out of 0:21:56.000 --> 0:22:00.280 the realm, and it is slowly building. And you got 0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:02.760 to remember what this political environment is about. This is 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:07.399 about Donald Trump these days and the House. Meanwhile, our 0:22:07.440 --> 0:22:10.359 friends at Down Ballot, I love this the Down Ballot. 0:22:10.440 --> 0:22:12.440 If you don't subscribe to it, you should. It's a 0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:15.639 great newsletter. They have a great podcast. These are folks 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:20.840