1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bet. 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 1: We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is 3 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Mollman. I'm joined as 5 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better, 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: my co host, Simon auntar Head. 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: Oh, Simon jad It's in the air, brother Spring. We 8 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: survived a long winner. We made it. 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk baseball today and we're gonna have one 10 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: of our favorite, our favorite guests on the show. And 11 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: I know he's one of our favorite guests because when 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: we first started doing this show together, you look forward 13 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 1: to him coming on because of your not so secret 14 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: uber baseball fandom. And I feel like I've become a 15 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: bigger and bigger baseball fan over the past few years, 16 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: you and I both I've fallen in love with the 17 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: Phillies just because I love the vibe at Citizens Bank, 18 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: and you and I have gone to games there together, 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: a couple of games actually, and having visited my kid 20 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: in Philly at Drexel and going to the games, there's 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: just Philly is a phenomenal baseball town. And then the 22 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: World Baseball Classic. I don't know how much of it 23 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: you watched, but it was so good and so intense 24 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: and so competitive and so emotional. It just got me 25 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: so amped for baseball season in a way that, like, 26 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: I feel like it will maintain momentum long long into 27 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: the season, especially since who knows, this may be the 28 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: last baseball season for a while if theyse you know, 29 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: fuckers can't get rid out of their own way and 30 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: stop this labor negotiation fuckery. So I am pumped. 31 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: Brother. Yeah, the baseball I think it's fair to say 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: this is the best position in the league has been 33 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 2: in since the very bond Mark maguire sam. 34 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: The best position they've been in since they screwed it 35 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: up and canceled the season in nineteen ninety four. 36 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 2: No, no, it was still good. It was still good 37 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 2: after that. They just they did hit a lull there 38 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 2: for a little bit. Though. I think we can all agree, 39 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 2: and especially it was the old age of don't throw 40 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: your bat, don't celebrate, don't talk, and I think everyone 41 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 2: was just like, dude, that that cannot be how baseball 42 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,079 Speaker 2: is going to be. And you've seen to me of 43 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 2: the World Baseball Classic, not so much this year, but 44 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 2: the past year's they really did embrace, especially the South 45 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 2: America country celebrating right and that me is carried over 46 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: to the league, that youthfulness, that fun, which is something 47 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 2: we's been missing. But the game change year, I know, 48 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: if we're going to talk about today is definitely the 49 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 2: pitch clock. Like that has totally changes sport, saved it. 50 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 2: Where As a purist I hated it. I love the 51 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 2: mind games of a guy taking thirty to forty minutes 52 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 2: thirty forty seconds to throw a pitch, but I have 53 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: to agree with it. It's it's better like in July, 54 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 2: if I can knock out a baseball game in two 55 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 2: hours and it's a good baseball game with four or 56 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 2: five runs per team, that's that's a great day, rather 57 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 2: than it taking four hours, which people will be shocked 58 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 2: to know Red Sox Yankees. If it was on the 59 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 2: big network like ESPN, that was minimum it could be 60 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 2: a one nothing game. It was gonna be a four 61 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: hour game. Yeah, the pitch clock. I'll give a credit 62 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 2: to the baseball they have really figured out and the 63 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 2: biggest top I mean we're gonna talk about right now 64 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 2: with about where our guys Zarrillo the Dodgers. Otani perfect 65 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 2: match to me. They just him leaving the Angels going 66 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: to the Dodgers. What it's done for the sport. It's 67 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 2: it's the best. He is must see TV. Like Trout. 68 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 2: Trout was great, you know, say what you want. He 69 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 2: was a great player. You have people listening to this. 70 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: You have to go see a Tani in person. If 71 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 2: you have not seen him hit or pitch, if you 72 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: have an opportunity he comes by your city, you need 73 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: to see this guy. It is. It's like seeing Judge 74 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 2: in person. It's like a superhero playing a sport. So yeah, 75 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: I'm fine, right up for the season chat, I really do. 76 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 2: There's a couple teams I really like. And yeah, the 77 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 2: World Baseball Classic, I'm like you, it got me fired up. 78 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: I know we lost. It's painful still, Venezuela, congratulations, but yeah, 79 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: it's baseball. It's just it's in such a great spot 80 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 2: right now. 81 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 3: All I will listen. 82 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: Opening night is tomorrow night special Yankees Giants game exclusively 83 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 1: on Netflix. But today we get to talk about all 84 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: of it, including the Dodgers dynasty, including any changes that 85 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:38,119 Speaker 1: will impact the game that will impact betters He's always 86 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: one of our favorite guests because he comes in with very, 87 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: very specific takes on where we can find some real 88 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: value across the board. One of our favorite baseball betting experts, 89 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: one of the smartest guys working in media anywhere, featured 90 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: on stage with me last year at Sloan's Sports Analytics Conference, 91 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: and co host of the Payoff Pitch podcast. One of 92 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: my earliest hires with the greatest cover letter I've ever 93 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 1: received as a hiring manager from the Action Network. Welcome 94 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: back to the show, Sean Zurillo. 95 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 3: Oh, thank you guys for having me. Appreciate the intro chat. 96 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 3: I can't believe it's been a year since we did 97 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 3: that slow conference. It feels like two years ago. But 98 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 3: also I can't believe it's been a year, So I 99 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 3: don't know. I'm a completely different person. The capabilities that 100 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 3: AI give you and the tools that I can build 101 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 3: out now on top of my pre existing models have 102 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 3: kind of taken my stuff to a different level, I 103 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 3: feel like, So I'm really exciting. Wow. 104 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 2: I mean, I was. 105 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 3: Implementing that stuff during the WBC kind of quietly beyond 106 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 3: the scenes that I've had a model that has been 107 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 3: built out and kind of refined and constantly updated over 108 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 3: five years. But the stuff that I can layer into 109 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 3: it now and the tools that I could build out 110 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 3: and beyond it are pretty incredible. We had a question 111 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 3: about AI at that slow conference and like, you know 112 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 3: the capabilities that it was giving people. I said, you know, 113 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 3: I'm not a coder, so it's it's given me the 114 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 3: ability to code and add things that I didn't think 115 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 3: I had the tools to do. But even a year, 116 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 3: even a year ago, I literally said, like, I don't 117 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: know how valuable it is right now. Maybe in a 118 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 3: year from now, it'll be in a place where I 119 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 3: feel like it's something I'm using every day, and it's 120 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 3: it is a year from now something I use every day. 121 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 3: So yeah, I will listen, explain my game. 122 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: I know, I know we want to get into it. 123 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: I know Simon is thinking a lot about this for 124 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: the off season for for his stuff. But explain a 125 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: little bit, because I also have spoken to a lot 126 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: of betters who have said they're using it to help 127 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: sort of make everything faster, but they're not using it 128 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: to make their models more predictive. It's not it's not 129 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: at that level yet. 130 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 3: So I've found in terms of there's a lot of 131 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 3: things that I do that were manual that I can 132 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 3: automate that for sure, like leets me up right, and 133 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 3: that that I could see absolutely for most people, like 134 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 3: you know, being a time safe. I'll also for line shopping. 135 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 3: I hate line shopping, especially for futures. When you're betting 136 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 3: one hundred plus futures, takes up so much time. I 137 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 3: can literally copy and paste all the lines from all 138 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 3: the different books. Give them, Give the Ai my projections, 139 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 3: Claud I found super valuable, Give Claude my projections. Give 140 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 3: claud all the all the odds from like ten different 141 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 3: sports book and say, hey, find me where my biggest 142 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 3: edges are, and then I can go and double check it, 143 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 3: and sure enough all of that matches up. But I 144 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 3: could say, give it me, give me the best odds, 145 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 3: give me the second best odds. What book they're at. 146 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 3: So like line shopping, where it used to take days, 147 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 3: I can now do in hours, you know, And I 148 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 3: can have a fully built out spreadsheet of like, here's 149 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 3: all your edges, here's where all of the best odds 150 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 3: are to bet those things, and I can have it 151 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 3: grade them based on you know, the edge shots et cetera. So, yeah, 152 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: like things that used to take me day as I 153 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 3: can now do in hours in terms of like predictive 154 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 3: stuff like you said, not necessarily like game changing type 155 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 3: of stuff. But there's things that I've always wanted to 156 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 3: do that I didn't know how to fully implement or 157 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 3: even know how to fully code into the model. One 158 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 3: of them being adjusting, for example, a team like the 159 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 3: Rockies at home versus on the road, their offensive quality. 160 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 3: When you take weighted on base average for Rockies players, 161 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 3: you're going to get a number that's very high because 162 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 3: they planned a very offensive driven park, but their offensive 163 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: quality is not as good on the road as opposed 164 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 3: to at home. So what is the relative adjustment there? Well, 165 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 3: not only did I figure that out, but I can 166 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 3: also layer that into my model now in a way 167 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 3: that I wasn't really sure how to code in previously, 168 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 3: so in terms of like formulas or design or building 169 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 3: out like the capabilities of doing a Monte carlosim again, 170 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 3: something that I didn't come from a coding background, so 171 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 3: I didn't know how to do. It's helped me refine 172 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 3: things and make things more efficient, but also add tools 173 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 3: that I kind of always had the idea for that 174 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 3: I wasn't able to fully implement. So yeah, it's been 175 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 3: super valuable. Just takes me able to do more and 176 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 3: look at more on a daily basis and kind of 177 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 3: cut down how much time I'm spending on managing things. 178 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: That's amazing. Simon, Again, like, we didn't prep for this topic, 179 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 1: but you and I talked a lot about your thoughts 180 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: on AI and how we were going to try to 181 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: use it and learn about it during the off season. 182 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: Have you been doing any of that. We're going to 183 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: have a much bigger AI show, maybe have Zirela command 184 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: for that. But tell me your preliminary thoughts is where 185 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: you know, six weeks eight weeks removed from the season. 186 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. I remember I took a AI in 187 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 2: the off season or during the season last year just 188 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 2: to get ahead of it because I'd been getting into it. 189 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 2: But I'd hired some guys who were, you know, in 190 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 2: their early twenties and they were really into AI, and 191 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, this clearly is you know usable 192 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: I need to get into it. And I think I'm 193 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 2: the same as Sean where I realized pretty quickly, Oh, 194 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 2: it's a lot of hype like people that are worried 195 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 2: about it. In certain aspects, it's not there yet, but 196 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 2: other aspects it is. Where you know, say I had 197 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 2: a team of ten guys, I easily could let go 198 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 2: five of those guys because I don't need them for 199 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 2: all the work AI can do in minutes. Right, We 200 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 2: used to be grueling work going through all their diferent 201 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,439 Speaker 2: websites give me all the different data. AI cuts into 202 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,319 Speaker 2: a lot of that, And you know, the biggest thing 203 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 2: is it's hard. It's hard to trust the I. And 204 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: I did have an AI model last year that I 205 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 2: just didn't use. I didn't trust it enough. I did 206 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 2: track it all season. It did really well. And you know, 207 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 2: my AI's biggest bet, its favorite bet in the Super 208 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 2: Bowl was the first half under which you know, obviously 209 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 2: it worked out, but it was one of those things 210 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 2: where it just it helped me get confidence in my 211 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 2: own bets where it's like, okay, not only is the 212 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 2: human element of me seeing these things, AI is also 213 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 2: trending in the right way. And the more you feed it, 214 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 2: that's the craziest part. The more you feed it, the 215 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 2: better it gets. And that's the scary part to me, 216 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 2: is because I am a small operation. These billion dollar companies, 217 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 2: these sports books AI. I don't know how they're going 218 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 2: to use it, but it it's hard right now to 219 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 2: make a living doing this. The edges, I think are 220 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: going to keep getting smaller because whatever edge I have, 221 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: and AI is gonna be able to spot that for 222 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 2: the sports books, either they'll limit me or they're going 223 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 2: to make it their own way of attacking the market 224 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 2: that way. So it's it's the show. We can honestly 225 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 2: do Chad two porter on that one, Like we could 226 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 2: do a whole week of AI talk with different guests 227 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 2: because I know so many people in the space that 228 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 2: are using it different ways, and I have different opinions. 229 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 2: And the funniest is seeing the old school guys fighting 230 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 2: against it, where people like me that I embrace change. 231 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 2: It makes your life so much easier, it does so 232 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: much work for you. So yeah, I'm really nice. Adapter 233 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 2: die exactly adaptter die, And I'm really excited to see, 234 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 2: like we said, it's Sean said, he what he was 235 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:32,719 Speaker 2: an interest to what it's gonna be like in a 236 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 2: year from now. I cannot wait to see what it's 237 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: gonna be like five years from now. Because it does 238 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: feel so early like it just people wanted to be instant. 239 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 2: AI is a slow burn to me, but all of 240 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 2: a sudden it's gonna explode. So I'm excited to see 241 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 2: what that next step is because right now, it's if 242 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,079 Speaker 2: you know what you're doing as a sport's better and 243 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 2: you know how to build models. It's the cheat code. 244 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,199 Speaker 2: Like again, it's making my bottom line easier because I 245 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 2: don't need to put as much man our and pay 246 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 2: enough people to do work for me. And it's also 247 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,079 Speaker 2: raising amount of money can make because it's it's saving 248 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: me time and time is money in this profession. So yeah, 249 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 2: you can see I'm excited about it. I see all 250 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 2: the horrible things about it, people losing jobs and everything 251 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 2: like that. But the other side of it is if 252 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 2: you are good at what you do, it can amplify 253 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 2: that and really help you in many ways, especially saving time, 254 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 2: which is to me huge. 255 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: All right, look, we're gonna Matt Mitchell put a pin 256 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 1: in that one and he'll put it on the calendar. 257 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: Maybe it's a week of AI and betting. It's obviously 258 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: an indusue. We got to discuss The cloud of Major 259 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: League Baseball is the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise, which Dynastic 260 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: You mentioned Otani. They are plus two twenty to win 261 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: the World Series at hard Rock plus two twenty. 262 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 3: That is absurd. 263 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 1: They are the only team below ten to one. Their 264 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: season win total is one hundred and two and a half. 265 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 1: You know, Zurillo, you talked about this on Payoff Pitch. 266 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 1: Their greatest advantage is how they treat their roster and 267 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: how they manage it postseason versus regular season. Explain what 268 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: that means. 269 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a team that knows that they're probably 270 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 3: going to make the playoffs, so they'll not push anybody 271 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 3: too hard one during the regular season, but too in 272 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 3: any particular playoff game in order to get an advantage 273 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 3: in that specific game. I always think back to Joe 274 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 3: Torre with the Yankees and the way he would manage 275 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 3: the bullpen during the regular season. It was like, I 276 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,439 Speaker 3: have to win today at all costs. I'll figure out 277 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 3: tomorrow tomorrow, And he's pitching Mary on Rivera for the 278 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 3: third straight day in the middle of July for a 279 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 3: team that's very likely to make the playoffs win one 280 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 3: hundred plus games anyway, what's the point of wasting those 281 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 3: bullets when you don't need those bullets, when those bullets 282 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 3: are not going to help you win the title. I 283 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 3: think about Tark School in the World Baseball Classic and 284 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 3: why people were so upset about what he was doing 285 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 3: being on the team being off the team. The optics 286 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:52,839 Speaker 3: of that were horrible, but also the one game he 287 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 3: pitched was against Great Britain, it ultimately added nothing to 288 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 3: the win probability for Team USA. Him being on the 289 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 3: team no mattered. If you know some relative scrub pitcher 290 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 3: had started in his set instead of a two time 291 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 3: running Alsy Young Champion, because you were expected to win 292 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 3: that game, You're gonna be a big favorite, regardless of 293 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 3: who's starting for you. He's ultimately adding nothing to your 294 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 3: championship probability. And I think that is how the Dodgers 295 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 3: view every decision. What can we do to increase our 296 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 3: championship probability, not our probability of winning today or tomorrow, 297 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 3: but increasing our probability of being the final team standing 298 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 3: at the end of the year. Now, you did mention 299 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 3: their title odds being around plus two twenty. That's not 300 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 3: so far off from where they opened last year. They 301 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 3: were around plus two to fifty last year. The best 302 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 3: price on them is when I took them when they 303 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 3: did not win the number one or number two seed 304 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 3: in the National League and ended up number three, and 305 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 3: they got to around plus three to fifty before their 306 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 3: series plus three twenty before their series against the Reds. 307 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 3: They had to win best of a three game series there, 308 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 3: but essentially the only difference between them getting a bye 309 00:14:57,720 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 3: and them not getting a buye and having to play 310 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 3: those two they just needed to win two out of 311 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 3: three and then they were right back in the position 312 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 3: they would have been had they gotten the buy So 313 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 3: you got odds from plus two to fifty to plus 314 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 3: three twenty. That was the odds adjustment essentially for them 315 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 3: needing to win a best of two out of three, 316 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 3: and that was the time that I bet them last year. 317 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 3: Now I make them about thirty percent to win the 318 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: title this season, so I'm not far off from the market. 319 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 3: I think I'm closer to plus two to fifty. Again, 320 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 3: the odds are about plus two twenty. But even though 321 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 3: this team and I project them as one hundred and 322 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 3: one win team, as does the public projection, they have 323 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 3: them at one to one point three. Their win totals 324 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 3: one or two and a half. Even though that's roughly 325 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 3: what I view them as during the regular season, once 326 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 3: you get to the playoffs, they project closer to a 327 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 3: one hundred and ten win team because when you get 328 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 3: down to roster consolidation and eliminating the needs for depth 329 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 3: and all of the pitching injuries that they typically have, 330 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 3: they just kind of project head and toes above everybody 331 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 3: else in terms of true talent level. Once you consolidate 332 00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 3: to the twenty or so players you're going to be 333 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 3: used as your playoff court. You know, when you have 334 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 3: a full regular season, you're projicting more of the forty 335 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 3: man roster into the calculus, but once you get to 336 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 3: the playoffs, it's really your best twenty or best twenty 337 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 3: two players or so. So, yeah, the Dodgors are, you know, 338 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 3: easily the favorite. I know a lot of people have 339 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 3: said that they're running baseball, that they signed the number 340 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: one hitter, number one pitcher in Edwin Diaz and Kyle 341 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 3: Tucker this offseason, on top of a team that's already 342 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 3: won back to back titles. They remain a heavy favorite 343 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 3: to win the title. But I kind of maintain that 344 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 3: it's the team's not investing. The owners not investing their teams, 345 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 3: the pirates, for instance, that are causing the gap and 346 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 3: the stress and the division in terms of how people 347 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 3: feel about the haves and have nots in this game. 348 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 3: A lot of these owners are wealthy, not all of 349 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 3: them invest it back into their teams. You have seen 350 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 3: a team like Toronto, you know, pivot to investing a 351 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 3: little bit more aggressively. Most people didn't realize that Toronto 352 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 3: has a top three richest ownership group. They just haven't 353 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 3: really flexed the pocketbook until the past couple of years. 354 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 3: So I think it hasn't coming upon the lesser owners 355 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 3: to catch up to the Dodgers. But the Dodters are 356 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 3: very much a dynasty. They daughters haven't won or paced 357 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 3: fewer than a ninety one season since twenty thirteen. Simon 358 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 3: and I were talking about it before the show. They 359 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 3: made the playoffs every single year dating back to that point. 360 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 3: One three World Series lost too. This is very much 361 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 3: a dynasty. If they win three in a row in 362 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 3: this era, you're talking about an all time great team, 363 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 3: not just the dynasty. 364 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:35,919 Speaker 1: What do they do to manage the roster during the 365 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: season that lives up to that philosophy you just explained 366 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: where they're not really caring about that day to day 367 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 1: improvement of their odds to win a game. It's about 368 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: improving their odds to win a title. Like pitching, rotations 369 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 1: are generally set. Is it about adjusting where who's in 370 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 1: the lineup that day? Is it about adjusting bad order? 371 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 1: Is it about changing the rotation? What are some decisions 372 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 1: they make? 373 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 3: They are load managing Freddy Freeman. Freddy Freeman is getting 374 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 3: into his late thirties now, but if you look at 375 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 3: the past few years, he's played exactly one hundred and 376 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 3: forty seven games, and if you figure over the course 377 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 3: of a major league season, that means he's sitting about 378 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 3: every ten days. So they're just load managing him. They're 379 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 3: just making sure that he is not exhausted for the playoffs. 380 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 3: He's had some injuries he's dealt with too, but essentially 381 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 3: making sure Freddy Freeman gets an off day A Tani's 382 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 3: going to be pitching again this year for them. I 383 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 3: would imagine they may factor in some additional DH off 384 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 3: days for him as well. But it really speaks to you, 385 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 3: know said, I know you said rotations are set, but 386 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 3: the doctors, that's not really the case. The Dodters haven't 387 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 3: had somebody clear two hundred innings in a very long time. 388 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 3: If they have any sort of concern about a pitching injury, 389 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 3: they'll just stick a guy in the IL. And in fact, 390 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 3: there was just a few years ago Baseball had created 391 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 3: I can't remember. It was a seven day IL or 392 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 3: a ten DAYIL specifically for pitchers, so that if you 393 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 3: needed to stick a pitcher on the IL, well, they 394 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 3: weren't missing three starts, they weren't missing the full fifteen days. 395 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 3: You could get them back in ten days, so they 396 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 3: would only miss two starts. Well, the Dodgers were manipulating 397 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 3: that rule so hard they got rid of it because 398 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 3: anybody who was getting hurt for the daughters ten DAYEL 399 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 3: and then they're bringing up all of their death arms 400 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 3: to fill those spots. But it was very obvious that 401 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 3: they were just kind of using it to load manage 402 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 3: their rotation, and they were taking this IL spot almost 403 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 3: like you would on a fantasy roster, to stash dudes 404 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 3: so they could bring other dudes up and kind of 405 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 3: contribute for a little bit, and you're keeping your other guy, 406 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 3: your healthy guy, but kind of injured guy in the 407 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 3: IL and just sort of giving them a break. So 408 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 3: they're great. I mean, you have to understand that the 409 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 3: Dodters managerial group, their GM, etc. All came from the 410 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 3: Rays when the Rays were overachieving drastically relative to their payroll. 411 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 3: And then these guys, Andrew Freeman the chief among them, 412 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 3: went to the Dodgers and they went from thirtieth or 413 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 3: twenty ninth in payroll to first buy a lot. So 414 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 3: now you're talking about combining the smartest GM or managerial 415 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 3: group with all of the money, and also they can 416 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 3: build out an analytics staff to their likeness as well. 417 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 3: You know, people talk about a lot about the salary cap, 418 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 3: and maybe that can be the way to neutralize things. 419 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 3: I disagree all of the rich teams, like the Doctors, 420 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 3: like the Yankees, if they're not able to invest more 421 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 3: in their roster, they're just going to invest in more 422 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 3: analytics staff. And look, as somebody who's on the analysis 423 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 3: data side of baseball. That's not necessarily something that I 424 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,119 Speaker 3: think is a bad thing because I would like people, 425 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 3: more people with my type of background or experience to 426 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 3: get opportunities in major league front offices. But then it's 427 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 3: all to say that the money will just be reallocated 428 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 3: and reinvested elsewhere to try to find them other advantages 429 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,160 Speaker 3: that they're already kind of finding off the field. So yeah, 430 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 3: they're brilliantly run. They have a ton of talent, but 431 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 3: also they kind of manipulate the rules as much as 432 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 3: they can to ensure the guys are healthy for the playoffs. 433 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 3: But they have enough depth in their organization that they're 434 00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 3: not really worried about getting there. 435 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 2: That's what's amazing to me is we knew the cheat code, 436 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 2: and they started with Moneyball. Boston took it, they messed up, 437 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 2: then Chicago took it from them somehow, the Cubs screwed up, 438 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,239 Speaker 2: and now the Dodgers have just run away with it. 439 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 2: They are just such a well run organization like even 440 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:18,919 Speaker 2: you talking about right now. It makes me sick as 441 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: a Phillies fan, where it's like this ain't going to 442 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 2: end in five years, Like this might be unlet's MLB 443 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: changes the rules. This might be our lives now for 444 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 2: ten to fifteen years. They just have a brilliant front 445 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 2: office with an owner that wants to spend money. It's 446 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 2: it's something like again Boston I feel bad for their 447 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 2: fan that feels like they had that and it just 448 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 2: they switch ownership groups and it's totally gone away. And so, 449 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 2: you know, talking on the National League right now in 450 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 2: the futures market, there's gonna be some good value because 451 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 2: what you just talked about, everything's so focused heaving to 452 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 2: the Dodgers. Are there any surprise teams you like or 453 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 2: are there any win totals that are worth talking about? 454 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 2: Like what's your view right now? The National League future market? 455 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 3: So I would say most people expect two of three 456 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 3: of the Phillies, Mets, and Brave to make the playoffs. 457 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 3: The Dodgers obviously are probably gonna make the playoffs. Most 458 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 3: people expect the Cubs to make the playoffs. So that 459 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 3: kind of leaves two spots, right, So you're talking about 460 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 3: the Brewers, I would think it's the Braves. We'll talk 461 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 3: about the Braves in the second why I'm low on them, 462 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 3: But the Brewers, the Pirates, the Giants or the Padres, 463 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 3: the Braves, and I think the Marlins could be in 464 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 3: the mix. That's six teams all fighting for two playoff spots. Now, 465 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 3: the Braves have had the worst spring of any team. 466 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 3: They've lost Spencer schwellenbach Hurst and Waldroup and Spencer Schreider 467 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 3: all to the IL. That's three of their five starting 468 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 3: rotation members. They also lost jerks In Profile to a 469 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,640 Speaker 3: full season suspension and Ronaldo Lopez, one of their other 470 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 3: starters his velocities down, and Chris Sales thirty seven and 471 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 3: hasn't cleared one hundred and seventy innings since twenty seventeen, 472 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 3: So the Braves' rotation has fallen apart. Akunya is still 473 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 3: an MVP candidate. He looked great the spring, he looked 474 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 3: great in the WBC. They still have a lot of 475 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 3: offensive talent, but I do think the house of cards 476 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 3: with their pitching could absolutely collapse, and they don't really 477 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 3: have a ton of minor league depth they could bring 478 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 3: up either. So Atlanta's gonna have to mash their way 479 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 3: to the playoffs if they don't, and I don't think 480 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 3: they will, or at least I project them closer to 481 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 3: eighty five wins and think they will be in the 482 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 3: mix with other teams. I think it really opens the 483 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 3: door for a team like the Marlins or the Pirates 484 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 3: to be your surprise playoff team. The Marlins are around 485 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 3: plus seven hundred plus six fifty. The Pirates are around. 486 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 3: They were around plus four to fifty. Now they're closer 487 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 3: to plus three hundred. I mean, you know the story 488 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 3: of his schemes. But the Pirates actually did invest in 489 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 3: their roster this offseason. They were also the offseason Kings 490 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,919 Speaker 3: of at least we tried, which is the ensuring that 491 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 3: you put out a press release that you were in 492 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 3: the mix on a player and ultimately didn't get them. 493 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,160 Speaker 3: They were in the mix apparently on colle Schorber didn't 494 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 3: get him. It's great to be the great to be. 495 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 3: We almost got them team every offseason, but this year 496 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 3: they actually did make some trades, added some guys four 497 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 3: to five that roster a little bit. So I think 498 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,399 Speaker 3: the Pirates will be in the mix. But and this is, 499 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 3: you know, one of the points I really wanted to make. 500 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 3: So I'm glad we got to a team like the Pirates. 501 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 3: There are two great ways to bet the Pirates and 502 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,880 Speaker 3: to bet the Rays that I think are flying under 503 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 3: the radar relative to their playoff odds if either of 504 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 3: those teams make the playoffs. The Pirates haven't made the 505 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 3: playoffs since twenty fifteen, maybe even earlier. The Rays are 506 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 3: in the toughest division in baseball. They have four teams 507 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 3: projected to finish five hundred ahead of them. All of 508 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 3: those teams are minus money to make the playoffs. The Rays, 509 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 3: I said, are around They're both teams, both the Rays 510 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 3: and the Pirates around plus three hundred to make the playoffs. 511 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 3: They're managers to win Manager of the Year are both 512 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 3: around fifteen to twenty to one win matter of the year. 513 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 3: If either of those teams make the playoffs, the managers 514 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 3: are finishing top two and probably winning. I mean, if 515 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 3: the Pirates make the playoffs, their manager is almost certainly winning, 516 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,159 Speaker 3: unless a team like the Marlins also makes and then 517 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 3: they're fighting for that award again like a team like 518 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 3: the Rays. If they make the playoffs, Kevin Cash is 519 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 3: probably winning Manager of the Year unless the White Sox 520 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 3: also win the playoffs or also make the playoffs. So 521 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 3: I just wanted to point out that you may have 522 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 3: a thesis or a pin. You may see the most 523 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,679 Speaker 3: direct way to bet it, which is parts to make 524 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 3: the playoffs. There may be a much better way to 525 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 3: bet it that is so highly correlated to that outcome 526 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,160 Speaker 3: that you're probably better off betting the other thing, if 527 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 3: not both. 528 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, 529 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. If your bracket's allreadbusted, you're 530 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: not alone, but don't worry. You can still call the 531 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: next big upset and turn your picks into payday on 532 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 1: hard rock Bet. 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Download the hard rock Bet app 543 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 1: today and let's get the party started. Offered by the 544 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 1: Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by Seminal hard 545 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 1: Rock Digital, LC and all other states must be twenty 546 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: one or over in visit the present in Arizone, in Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, 547 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play terms and 548 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight 549 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: three three play wise. In Indiana, if you were someone 550 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 551 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: one eight hundred and nine with it. In Ohio, call 552 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: one eight hundred my reset gambling problem called one eight 553 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:42,440 Speaker 1: hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, 554 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:47,679 Speaker 1: and Virginia Zarillo. I don't think anyone that I know 555 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 1: has stayed as on top of changes to the baseball 556 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 1: as you have and how it impacts not just a 557 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: team's opportunities to win. That impacts betting lines, impacts run totals, 558 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,199 Speaker 1: everything down the line. What is the latest on the 559 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: ever changing world as the baseball turns. 560 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll find out week or so into the season. 561 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 3: If you go on Baseball Savant, if you just google 562 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,880 Speaker 3: Baseball Savant drag coefficient, you can find year by year 563 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 3: the grafts showing how the baseball is fluctuated in terms 564 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 3: of the drag DTA on it meaning less drag it's 565 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 3: going to fly. Further More drag, it's not going to 566 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 3: fly as far. Now this is based upon I believe 567 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 3: fastball is thrown. But if you look at the home 568 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:38,120 Speaker 3: runs per year correlated with that data, you can see 569 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 3: that baseball has clearly been changing the baseball sometimes unfortunately, 570 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,159 Speaker 3: they're cycling out old baseballs while introducing new ones. So 571 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 3: you do have games or instances in a season where 572 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 3: they've pulled baseballs from the same game, sliced into those 573 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 3: baseballs and found that they are different baseballs, and the 574 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 3: pitcher does not know, the hitter does not know what 575 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,680 Speaker 3: particular ball is being thrown at them at that release. 576 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 3: So you can watch a game, and I've watched plenty 577 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 3: of games where a batted ball is hit at the 578 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 3: same eggs of velocity and the same launch angle and 579 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,439 Speaker 3: does not travel one does not travel as far as 580 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 3: the other. That is almost certainly a difference in the ball, 581 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 3: and not any difference in weather or anything like that, 582 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 3: assuming it's in a dome, you know, the Texas Stadium 583 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,479 Speaker 3: in particular, I've seen a lot of weird ball travel. 584 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:31,880 Speaker 3: So the larger point is MLB's changed it twenty seventeen, 585 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, twenty twenty one. Like every two years they've 586 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 3: swapped in a different type of ball. Twenty twenty two 587 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 3: was the most egregious of the three. That was the 588 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 3: Aeron Judge home run Chase. They used three different balls 589 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 3: that year. They used a juice ball, a ball that 590 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 3: was probably used in twenty twenty one which was dejuiced, 591 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 3: and then the Goldilocks ball. And we have evidence that MLB, 592 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 3: both for the home Run Derby and the All Star Game, 593 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 3: but also for you that Aaron Judge was playing en 594 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 3: route to his sixty plus home run season, that MLB 595 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 3: was putting a super juiced ball into play, the Goldilocks ball. 596 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,959 Speaker 3: So not only have they been caught red handed and 597 00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 3: people don't really talk about it, but we also don't 598 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 3: know what ball they're going to use and play the 599 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 3: following year. And last year in twenty twenty five, the 600 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 3: balls were traveling five feet less than they had in 601 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, and home runs went down slightly, and 602 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 3: then they started coming back up. And if you look 603 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 3: at the graph for like over underprofitability throughout the season, 604 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 3: there's a giant spike to the unders and then if 605 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,280 Speaker 3: you kept betting unders, there's a giant downslope because the 606 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 3: over started hitting at a ridiculous rate and then it 607 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 3: kind of neutralized again. So I think at some point 608 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 3: around April or around May June of last year, MLB 609 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 3: started cycling in in new batch of balls, and that's 610 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 3: the ones that we finished the year with. The question 611 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 3: is whether those are the balls to start the twenty 612 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 3: twenty six seasons. So we don't really know until the 613 00:29:59,280 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 3: year starts. 614 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 2: With. 615 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 3: The data point that you can measure is the drag 616 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 3: coefficient data on Baseball Savant kind of look at where 617 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 3: the dots are relative to prior years and you could 618 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 3: figure out the expected home run rate. 619 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: What is your evidence that is in the baseball analyox 620 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: community about the gold dealocks ball for Aaron Judge in 621 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 1: his season of sixty plus homers specifically. 622 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, So there's a scientist. Her name's Meredith Wills. She's 623 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 3: a physicist. She was the one who has been collecting 624 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 3: and splicing into these balls, and you can find her 625 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 3: studies on them that I've read. But essentially it's it 626 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 3: comes down to physics and what is actually inside of 627 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 3: the baseballs, and this woman, Meredith She's sliced into them, 628 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 3: you know, across again twenty seventeen, twenty nineteen, twenty one, 629 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 3: twenty two, twenty four, and twenty five, and has noted 630 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 3: the changes in all of those years. So it's it's 631 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,160 Speaker 3: not something that I'm doing based off of like baseball 632 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,440 Speaker 3: savant data and ball flight even though you can use 633 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 3: those data points to measure. It is actually people physically 634 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 3: cutting into the baseballs and measuring them in labs and 635 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 3: the flight data and the drag data on them and 636 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 3: closed environments and labs and saying, yeah, these are different. 637 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 2: And I just addn't know. The crazy drama here is 638 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 2: apparently like the Dodgers, the Phillies, the Yankees, these big 639 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 2: time clubs, they're more they give them more often than 640 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 2: not those type of balls because they want those. Those 641 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 2: teams are the big time guys these hit. So again, 642 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 2: nothing's been proving scientifically on that, but it's like conspiracy 643 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 2: theorists like I love going down these these reddit like 644 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 2: deep holes on all these fans theories. People don't even 645 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 2: respect Shorbur's home run run because they're like, oh, he 646 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 2: was getting juice balls where it's like anyone can hear 647 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 2: Schwarber hit the ball. It sounds different like there is 648 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 2: clearly it doesn't matter if the balls are juiced to 649 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 2: me for sure, But that's a Phillies fan of me. 650 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,480 Speaker 2: But I believe it because it's like you watch these 651 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 2: Yankees games, these Phillies games, like, oh, that's the short 652 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 2: perch or portrait they call it. It's like, is it or 653 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,840 Speaker 2: is something wrong here with these baseballs because it is crazy, 654 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 2: these upticks. And you know, I haven't read her study, 655 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,920 Speaker 2: but that's definitely something I'm about to spend the next 656 00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 2: ten hours on because that's really interesting. 657 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 3: If that is, if there is any and I don't 658 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 3: necessarily buy into that theory, but if there is any 659 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 3: truth to that theory. With ABS being introduced and umpires 660 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 3: having less influence over the games, that would be the 661 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 3: one way that you could influence the outcome and you 662 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 3: could help the top teams is feeding them baseballs that 663 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 3: are maybe a little bit juice and giving the other 664 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 3: teams dejuice base balls because ABS is going to neutralize 665 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 3: everything in terms of called strikes. It's very much incumbent 666 00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 3: upon the players on the field now went to challenge, 667 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 3: So that does neutralize things to a degree. 668 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,239 Speaker 1: Let me ask one more question, because something about this 669 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 1: doesn't pass the sniff test. Was this physicist cutting into 670 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 1: Aaron Judge home run balls from his historic home run 671 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,479 Speaker 1: season when just about every ball that he hit, a 672 00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: very small sample size of overall balls was getting collected, 673 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: was getting potentially sold or given back to him. How 674 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 1: many of his specific balls did this physicist cut into. 675 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 3: So twenty twenty two was the year that I believe 676 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,320 Speaker 3: she tested the most because there was such a different 677 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 3: variation in terms of the outcomes in the balls. Now 678 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 3: she got, I just pulled it up. She got over 679 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 3: two hundred baseballs from that year, nine in the postseason 680 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,959 Speaker 3: across four playoff rounds, and eleven specifically obtained from Yankee games. 681 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 3: And that's how she was able to determine. In the 682 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 3: Yankee games, Okay, the baseballs were a little bit more doude, 683 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 3: so it's not like Aaron Judge specific at bats. They 684 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 3: were like here, you know, here you go, here's the 685 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,760 Speaker 3: Aaron Judge balls. I think it was specific to the 686 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 3: Yankee game balls and the playoff balls measuring similarly relative 687 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 3: to the regular juice balls and the dead end balls 688 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 3: during the regular season. 689 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 1: That's amazing. 690 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're inviting google Google Meredith Wills, Aaron Judge, Google 691 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 3: Meredith Wills twenty twenty two. You can read her whole 692 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 3: study and read into it. There's a lot of truth 693 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 3: to it. 694 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:07,680 Speaker 2: All right. 695 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: So Zarrillo, speaking of you always come on the show 696 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 1: and you will give us really great futures for individual performance. 697 00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:18,840 Speaker 1: And you've been on it, I think last year. I 698 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,360 Speaker 1: think last year it was like, you gave us Kyle Schwarber. 699 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: You've given us great home run futures. Talk to us, 700 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 1: give us your individual player futures. 701 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, Kyle Schwarber is back on the list this year. 702 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 3: RBI thirty five to one. I made him twenty to 703 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 3: one last year for RBI Leader. He's thirty five to 704 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,439 Speaker 3: one this year. It was fifty to one last year. 705 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 3: So I'm fine betting it at thirty five to one. 706 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 2: Still. 707 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 3: You know my general takeaway this year, I didn't project 708 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 3: these out last year. I haven't projected these out in 709 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 3: previous years. I found that there's much bigger edges in 710 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 3: general on the milestone props as opposed to categories leader props. Now, 711 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,399 Speaker 3: the odds aren't going to be as enticing a lot 712 00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,719 Speaker 3: of the times, but you can still find nine to 713 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,080 Speaker 3: one ten to one shots on guys to get two 714 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 3: hundred plus strikeouts that I think should be closer to 715 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,800 Speaker 3: plus four fifty or plus five hundred. So the general 716 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,920 Speaker 3: takeaway and not analyzing the futures market this year was 717 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,839 Speaker 3: much more value in the milestone and ladder props than 718 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 3: there is the outright leader props. The biggest edges I 719 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 3: found on outright leader props was Otani RBI leader at 720 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,680 Speaker 3: fourteen to one. Now I did mention he may sit 721 00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 3: a little bit more this year, but in terms of 722 00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,680 Speaker 3: projections he is above Aaron Judge for RBI home run. 723 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:31,560 Speaker 3: I think he's also five to one. There was value 724 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 3: in that number two. Obviously, the more long shot leader 725 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 3: props are a little bit more interesting. Stolen base leader 726 00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 3: Chandler Simpson is five to one. I like him, but 727 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 3: Victor Scott at twenty five to one I think is 728 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 3: a good bet as well. You know, there's a number 729 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,840 Speaker 3: of like correlated player of portfolios that I built. I 730 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 3: think the most interesting market maybe because the totals are 731 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,880 Speaker 3: so low for win totals or for pitcher wins, I 732 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 3: should say the winner of pitcher wins is only going 733 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 3: to get twenty right or twenty two at most, you know, 734 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:08,359 Speaker 3: compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs, like, 735 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 3: the gap is so much more compressed and everything is 736 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 3: a little bit more random. But Logan Webb at twenty 737 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 3: to one from Bervela does at thirty to one, George 738 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 3: Kirby at fifty to one. I think those are all 739 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 3: great bets because what I've found doing research into pitcher wins, 740 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,360 Speaker 3: the correlation between the wins leader is just as high 741 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 3: as the correlation between the guys who finished highest and 742 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,239 Speaker 3: quality starts. Wins just kind of come down to luck 743 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,880 Speaker 3: and how many runs your offense scores. For you, quality 744 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,000 Speaker 3: starts isn't even the best measurement of a good start 745 00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 3: for a pitcher, but it is a good measurement for 746 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,040 Speaker 3: putting your team in position to win and giving your 747 00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:47,600 Speaker 3: I mean, you could have a four to fifty ERA 748 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:49,719 Speaker 3: for the season and still the quality starts it's three 749 00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,600 Speaker 3: runs and six innings. So quality start isn't necessarily the 750 00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,319 Speaker 3: best measurement of like you're a good pitcher, but it 751 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 3: is a really good measurement for you gave your team 752 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 3: a chance to win and if they gave you four 753 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 3: runs or three runs, you're probably going to get that 754 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 3: win if you through five innings. So Web twenty to one, 755 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,439 Speaker 3: Valdez thirty to one, Kirby fifty to one. That might 756 00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,360 Speaker 3: be my favorite grouping of like long shot bets for 757 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,880 Speaker 3: pitcher wins or just in general for any category, because again, 758 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,280 Speaker 3: like the range of outcomes for pitcher wins is so compressed, 759 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 3: and all those guys are twenty to one or better. 760 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 3: You also do if you dead heat as well, you 761 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:24,960 Speaker 3: end up splitting the odds. So if two of them win, 762 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,759 Speaker 3: you'll end up cashing both tickets. You'll just split the 763 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,799 Speaker 3: odds on both of those. So I don't I think 764 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 3: that's a that's a pretty interesting approach. The guy added 765 00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,880 Speaker 3: most recently, and I think there's still may be value 766 00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,440 Speaker 3: out there from a player prop perspective or from a 767 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:43,080 Speaker 3: player work perspective. Is Kevin mcgonawell of the Tigers. He's 768 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 3: my favorite for ale rookie year. Right now, it's unclearest 769 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 3: to whether or not he's going to make the Tigers 770 00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,239 Speaker 3: opening day roster. It seems like at worse he'll be 771 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,720 Speaker 3: up within two weeks. They're gonna maybe delay the service 772 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 3: time you know, manipulate that the thing that people a 773 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,399 Speaker 3: lot of people have not realized and analyzing this, if 774 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 3: you finish top two in al rookie the year in 775 00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,360 Speaker 3: either league, you lose the year of service time anyway. 776 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,279 Speaker 3: So if you're gonna wait two weeks to bring up 777 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,960 Speaker 3: a guy to gain that year of service time and 778 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 3: then he ends up finishing first or second rookie the year, 779 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,839 Speaker 3: then you waited two weeks for nothing. So I think 780 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,360 Speaker 3: McGonagall is going to be on the Tigers opening day roster, 781 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 3: either playing shortstop or third base. He's not like a 782 00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 3: Bobby Wit thirty thirty short stop where he has like 783 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:27,479 Speaker 3: insane power and speed. He is the twenty twenty six 784 00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:32,200 Speaker 3: archetype that I am most looking forward to analyzing and 785 00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 3: trying to capture the value of going forward. He's a 786 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,839 Speaker 3: swing decision monster. Swing decisions is the ability to swing 787 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,680 Speaker 3: at strikes and not a balls, and to swing at 788 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:42,960 Speaker 3: good strikes and not close strikes, to swing it strikes 789 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:44,959 Speaker 3: in the heart of his own and to not swing 790 00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 3: at balls or close pitches, and to put quality of 791 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 3: contact on those pitches. That is the process stat that 792 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 3: I think people overlook the most now or would like 793 00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,760 Speaker 3: to capture the most in terms of figuring out offensive 794 00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,880 Speaker 3: clot because yes, like you could have a great season, 795 00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:08,680 Speaker 3: you know, or less great season just by nature of variance, 796 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 3: and like your bat was, you know, a tenth inn 797 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,279 Speaker 3: inch away from like making perfect contact and as a 798 00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 3: result you hit into an out instead of hitting home run. 799 00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,600 Speaker 3: Right like, this year, you may get all of the 800 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,680 Speaker 3: best outcomes as a result, next year you may get 801 00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:21,279 Speaker 3: the wrong side of all of those outcomes. And one 802 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,000 Speaker 3: year a guy hits forty home runs, the next guy 803 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,359 Speaker 3: next year he hits twenty. You know, generally, like if 804 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,560 Speaker 3: you're projected to hit thirty home runs, plus ten or 805 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,880 Speaker 3: minus ten on either side of that is an acceptable 806 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,920 Speaker 3: range of outcomes for a player. The swing decision guys, 807 00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:39,720 Speaker 3: I think are much safer investments, but also much safer 808 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 3: offensive teams and process and swinging at good pitches the 809 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 3: swing at and avoiding bad pitches the swing at. When 810 00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 3: we get into the playoffs, when you watch the WBC, 811 00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,959 Speaker 3: you could really see it with the quality of played 812 00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,839 Speaker 3: appearances that guys were taking and the teams that were 813 00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,880 Speaker 3: more effective. Italy was Italy was probably the best example. 814 00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:59,560 Speaker 3: The reason why Italy made it to the final four 815 00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,839 Speaker 3: of the w if you watch their at bats, they 816 00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,799 Speaker 3: were spitting at balls and they're swinging at strikes, and 817 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,319 Speaker 3: that was like the entire offense philosophy. And I know 818 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,480 Speaker 3: that sounds really simple, but it's really hard to do. 819 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,880 Speaker 3: Not Chasing pitches is really hard to do, and swinging 820 00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,359 Speaker 3: at pitches that are in the zone every time they're 821 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,200 Speaker 3: in the zone is really hard to do. And then 822 00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:20,560 Speaker 3: making sure that bat is on the ball and the 823 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,880 Speaker 3: hand eye coordination is another layer on top of it 824 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,920 Speaker 3: that's really hard to do. And the point is that 825 00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,399 Speaker 3: Kevin McGonagall is like the best prospect we've ever seen 826 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,319 Speaker 3: at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, 827 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 3: but he's more of like a twenty twenty guy at best. 828 00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 3: He's not gonna go thirty thirty or forty forty, but 829 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,799 Speaker 3: he's probably gonna hit two ninety and have a really 830 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 3: high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. 831 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:44,520 Speaker 3: So he's six to one right now for Rookie of 832 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:49,040 Speaker 3: the Year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. 833 00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,080 Speaker 3: It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get 834 00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 3: surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, Ale Rookie 835 00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 3: of the Year, I would lock that in. It's the 836 00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,719 Speaker 3: most recent ward bets I made, so that's why I'm 837 00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,920 Speaker 3: bringing it up. JJ web Rolt in the NL similar case, 838 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 3: probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good 839 00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,000 Speaker 3: swing decisions a guy who may not have like the 840 00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,319 Speaker 3: esthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very 841 00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 3: safe flour all. 842 00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,480 Speaker 1: Right, before we get out of here. I love that 843 00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:17,279 Speaker 1: analysis on swing decisions. That's that's that's why baseball it 844 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 1: becomes more and more interesting every year for me. Opening 845 00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:25,120 Speaker 1: Night Giants Yankees, Any thoughts Opening Day? Any thoughts for 846 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:30,080 Speaker 1: people who might be listening to this very soon and 847 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 1: want to get in some action. 848 00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing for Opening Night for the Giants game. There 849 00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,600 Speaker 3: are a couple of angles I was eyeing for the 850 00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,520 Speaker 3: official opening Day on Thursday, and one of them I 851 00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,799 Speaker 3: think is interesting because if you look at the team 852 00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:46,400 Speaker 3: total analysis, it's like completely opposite. So the Minnesota Twins 853 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,560 Speaker 3: are a team that the public projection market is really 854 00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,040 Speaker 3: high on this year. They have them at about seventy 855 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,080 Speaker 3: seven and a half wins. I have them at seventy 856 00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,040 Speaker 3: point six against seventy seven and a half versus seventy 857 00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,040 Speaker 3: point six. Their win total is seventy two point five. 858 00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:00,719 Speaker 3: This is a team who is probably going to sell 859 00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,600 Speaker 3: off a lot of pieces at the trade deadline. They 860 00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 3: did last year. They had to sell off minority shares 861 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,960 Speaker 3: of their ownership, So not only did they not invest 862 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,160 Speaker 3: in their roster, they were actively looking for investors into 863 00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,000 Speaker 3: their team so that they could pay their roster. So 864 00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:16,920 Speaker 3: this is not a team that's going to be adding pieces. 865 00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:18,840 Speaker 3: It's only a team that's going to be selling pieces. 866 00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,200 Speaker 3: As a result, I'm under their win total. I bet 867 00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,880 Speaker 3: their win total under. But right now, this is a 868 00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,600 Speaker 3: seventy eight win team, a team that should play if 869 00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 3: all the pieces are on the roster, a team that 870 00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,680 Speaker 3: should be close to five hundred. Joe Ryan is starting 871 00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:33,279 Speaker 3: for them on opening day. Joe Ryan is an all 872 00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,400 Speaker 3: star caliber pitcher. Pablo Lopez got hurt for them, so 873 00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:38,719 Speaker 3: relative to their O their starting pitchers, Joe Ryan is 874 00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:42,480 Speaker 3: significantly better. So when Joe Ryan is pitching, this is 875 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,680 Speaker 3: like an eighty five win team or an eight one team. 876 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:46,920 Speaker 3: Joe Ryan was able to start every game, right this 877 00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:48,640 Speaker 3: is closer than an eighty five one team, not a 878 00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:52,240 Speaker 3: seventy eight one team, they're playing the Orioles on opening Day. 879 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,799 Speaker 3: I believe their number is close to plus one thirty. 880 00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,000 Speaker 3: I make that game right around a coin flip, so 881 00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,000 Speaker 3: I will be betting the Twins almost certainly on opening Day. 882 00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,279 Speaker 3: Was my biggest projected edge when I first open up 883 00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:07,680 Speaker 3: the numbers. I just think they're being under projected right now, 884 00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 3: probably relative to end of season expectations, not necessarily who 885 00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,799 Speaker 3: they are, especially with Joe Ryan on the mound. So 886 00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,280 Speaker 3: Twins opening day around plus one thirty ish, I probably 887 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,759 Speaker 3: like that down New about plus one fifteen. And then 888 00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,280 Speaker 3: the under eight and a half I believe between the 889 00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,360 Speaker 3: Brewers and White Sox. I haven't bet it yet, but 890 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:27,360 Speaker 3: I think I made that about seven point eight. And 891 00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,240 Speaker 3: for some reason, I always end up on the excuse 892 00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:31,680 Speaker 3: me on the under on the first game of the 893 00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:35,279 Speaker 3: Brewers season at home. So I'm sure producer Matt will 894 00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,759 Speaker 3: be excited to hear that he gets the fire and 895 00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,200 Speaker 3: under it one of the teams he sports on opening Day. 896 00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,600 Speaker 1: Oh my god, Matt Mitchell, you give him in an 897 00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:47,480 Speaker 1: under for any kind of day baseball midweek he is 898 00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,600 Speaker 1: we might not even see him that day. 899 00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,279 Speaker 3: I bet under eight and a half, so I'm sure 900 00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:53,239 Speaker 3: he'll be searching for an all under seven and a 901 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,440 Speaker 3: half at plus money. I'm sure he's laughing as I 902 00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,040 Speaker 3: say this too, because I'm sure he already is. 903 00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:01,920 Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo hosts a payoff pitch on Action Network Baseball 904 00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:07,359 Speaker 1: savant Ai Provocateur. Thanks for coming on the show making 905 00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 1: us smarter. This has been sharp or Square part of 906 00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,799 Speaker 1: the Volume podcast network Watch. We're listening on YouTube bit 907 00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,720 Speaker 1: sharper Square like this video, Subscribe to the channel, download 908 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,719 Speaker 1: us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, 909 00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,359 Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. 910 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,400 Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift until next time. 911 00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:32,120 Speaker 2: Love you for a picture. Treat an umpire like your 912 00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,000 Speaker 2: sister just brought over a date from the prompt. 913 00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,000 Speaker 3: Be very cordial, very nice, very professional. 914 00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,239 Speaker 2: Don't ever make him feel bad about what he's doing. 915 00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:42,839 Speaker 3: Every buddy, buddy, just be cordially nice. 916 00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:43,920 Speaker 2: Never show him up. 917 00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,279 Speaker 1: He's getting paid to do this thing.