1 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Joining 5 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: us now the Laureate of Columbia University, Joe, I want 6 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: to cut right. We're gonna talk about what's going on 7 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: right now, but Joe, I want to go back a 8 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: small forty years to Grossman's Stiglets, and in it, there 9 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: is an equation, folks, which is the simplest equation in 10 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: all of economics. You equal state of plus epsilon. Epsilon 11 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: is the unobservable. It's what we can't see. Joe Stiglets 12 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: became acclaimed for this. Joe Stiglets, have you ever seen 13 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: an epsilon like right now? Have you ever seen the 14 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: unobservable that we see in this pandemic. We've never seen 15 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: a shock as big as we have. But the interesting 16 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: thing is after the shock has hit, uh, we can 17 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: trace out some of the consequences. And what I find 18 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: a little disappointing is that we haven't been doing next 19 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: second round. The shock we could not have anticipated. Uh, 20 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 1: we could have done a better response to it. So, Professor, 21 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: this shock is what's unique about this shock versus what 22 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 1: maybe some things we've experienced in the past. It is 23 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: truly truly global. Does the response have to be global 24 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: because right now it seems country by country or even 25 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: within the United States state by state. Well, it has 26 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: to be you might say, both global and local. Uh, 27 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: if the local hospitals that are going to take care 28 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: of people. But the fundamental fact is that we won't 29 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: be able to control the pandemic until we control it everywhere. 30 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: If it's raging in some part of the world and 31 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: we don't yet have a vaccine and we don't have 32 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: a rest viral, it'll come back to bite us. And 33 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: that is what was so disappointing about Trump's decision to 34 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: hold up money on w h O. It's like being 35 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: upset about the fire department and uh, defunding the fire 36 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: department in the middle of the fire. Joe. What I 37 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: find so distressing here is we've got rogueoff and Reinhard 38 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: publishing a brilliant essay the other day. And you know, folks, 39 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: I've never said this in my life. Rogoff and Stiglets 40 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: are on the same page, and and Joe, this is 41 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: really critical the urgency of the matter. And we've seen 42 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: a central bank and frankly central banks plural matter, and 43 00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: the legislature, particularly in the United States, seems locked in 44 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: almost a pardon the pun a lockey and the individual 45 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: approach where society cannot collectively battle a viral pandemic. How 46 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: do we get ourselves out of that? How do we 47 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: extract ourselves from this forced individualism? Well, I think the 48 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: hope is that we look around and see what's going 49 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: on in other countries and take the lesson. You know, 50 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 1: the I m F came out with report yesterday and 51 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: one of the striking things to me, and that was 52 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: that the United States it was way ahead of every 53 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: other country in the number of the fraction of unemployment, 54 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate UH and ahead of every country in 55 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: a very negative way. When they said, you know, let's 56 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: make a number us number one, they didn't mean make 57 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: us number one in having the highest level of unemployment 58 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: among all the events countries in response to the coronavirus. 59 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: The other countries have figured it out and have figured 60 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:08,119 Speaker 1: out a way to make sure that there is less sufferings, 61 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,839 Speaker 1: fewer people are thrown out of their jobs. And what's 62 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: so devastating the United States is we are the one 63 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: country where people depend on employment for health insurance in 64 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: the middle of a health crisis. So the devastating effects 65 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 1: in the United States being unemployed, our orders of magnitude 66 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: worse than another country. And then, Paul, I've been out 67 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: of tooralize here. I'm talking to my own book, but 68 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: it's companies like Bloomberg, and I'll mention Bank of America, 69 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: Mr Mourne, and today re emphasizing this is not the 70 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 1: time to can peoples. You got to find a way 71 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: to do this. Paul, pick it. So, professor, give us 72 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: what we know about the US fiscal stimulus response. What 73 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: do you think the US government should do next? I mean, 74 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: the FED seems to have really flexed its muscles, exercised 75 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 1: many tools in the toolbox. What do you think the 76 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: federal response should be going forward? Well, I think there's 77 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: actually a number of things that we need to do. Uh, 78 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: some of them are relatively easy. There were some big 79 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: gaps in our earlier measures for inch things. While we 80 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: recognize how important it was for people to have paid sickly. 81 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: We don't want people with COVID nineteen going into the 82 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: workplace and spreading the disease. And so they passed a law. 83 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: But what did they do then, under the pressure of 84 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: the big companies, exempt at eight of American workers. So 85 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: we recognized the principle, and then we totally undermine it. 86 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: So that needs to be changed. Uh. We recognized the 87 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: principle that we shouldn't have people UH, we should keep 88 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,679 Speaker 1: the connection between people in their jobs. But then when 89 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: we designed the program, we designed it in a way 90 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: that it's not working very well. Other countries have done 91 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 1: UH much better, And there's a bill in Congress to 92 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: follow the model that the other countries UH used where 93 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: the employer directly gets a check to pay his workers 94 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 1: from the I R S or Social Security. We have 95 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: all those Uh, we have all the the the information 96 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: we need. I mean, after all, the I R S 97 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: is communicating with every corporation and so they know how 98 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: to communicate. So that's money that could go almost overnight. 99 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: And why we didn't do it that way, I have 100 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: no idea. UH. And then we have some other big gaps. 101 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: One of the big issues is UH we left out 102 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: the big NGOs. The universities are research institutions, and so 103 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 1: some of the kinds of institutions that are will be 104 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: absolutely necessary for our revival as a strong economy. I 105 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: have not been supported. They'll they'll be along with another trunch. 106 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 1: If you're just joining us, what's Joseph sticklet's with us 107 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: of Columbia University. Joe, I want to talk about your 108 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: Democratic Party. I know you voted Republican four or five 109 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: elections ago, but Joe, I want to talk about the 110 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: need for Democrats, and particularly the visible East Coast Democrats 111 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: that hang on every Joe Stigley, it's in word, how 112 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: do they get back to the middle ground. How does 113 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: the vice president running against President Trump? How does your 114 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: party ex convention getting to November? How do they find 115 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: their way back to Hubert Humphrey, Scoop Jackson in the 116 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 1: middle Democratic party ground? So my view is they need 117 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: to focus on the basic principles, which are principles that 118 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: you know of American support. Uh, most Americans you know 119 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: in poeft Po show, they think that seven dollars is 120 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: not adequate as a minimum wage. They think it's not 121 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: a livable wage. We need raise a minimum wage. Almost 122 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: everybody says that the fact of the United States is 123 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: the only advanced country that doesn't recognize the right to 124 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 1: access to healthcare is a basic human right. We need 125 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: to recognize that, and there are different ways of doing it. 126 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: We need a good democratic debate about how to do it. 127 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: But recognize that principle. Uh, the idea that people should 128 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: be able to shoot other people, Uh, that you should have. 129 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: You know, we're not talking about rifles. We're talking about 130 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: machine guns. Uh that uh the Fourth Amendment not wasn't 131 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: talking about everybody having the right to have machine guns. 132 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: So some forms of gun control. I mean you to 133 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: stay on the pandemic now, and you know, we all 134 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 1: understand on gun control it's about the Senate majority and 135 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: the power in the rural nature of the Senate, etcetera. 136 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: I mean, we all get that. On the pandemic and 137 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: on the politics forward. Do you see any nudging towards 138 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: the more collective American psychology or do we get done 139 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: with the pandemic and we just move on as we've 140 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: been moving on since you know, forty years ago. Yeah, 141 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 1: I'm glad you raised that because that is the essential 142 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: issue when we have a crisis. We realize that we 143 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: need collective action, that our individualism can't work, and we 144 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: turned to government. And here in New York, Governor Como 145 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: has really done a fantastic job under very difficult circumstances. Uh. 146 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: So Uh and we see in states like California the 147 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: role of good leadership and the role of the state 148 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 1: in being able to protect people and to get the 149 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: pandemic under control. So I think you know this is 150 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: one of the themes of my book. Uh, People Power 151 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: and Profits Progressive Capitalism. Uh, it's that we went too 152 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: far in the extreme at markets where everything we need 153 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: to get a better balance of balance between recognizing markets 154 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: are important, but so is collective actalcy Joe, just because 155 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: of the clock, we gotta leave it there. Joe Stiglets, 156 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us to Lauria from 157 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: Columbia University. Always controversial, we got a ton of response 158 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: when Professor Stiglets is on. We are committed here to 159 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: speaking of medicine, and we do that across the wide 160 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,959 Speaker 1: sphere of this pandemic. We've talked to radiologists, We've talked 161 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: to epidemiologists. Again, we speak to someone expert in emergency medicine. 162 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: She's Laurence Soer Johns Hopkins University, their assistant professor, really 163 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: just outside the pandemic expert in this area. We caught 164 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: up with her today here. He is Professor Soer. I 165 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: think it's a little too early to say whether it's 166 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: fully accresting or not. We are seeing a slow down 167 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: in the number of increasing cases. We haven't I don't 168 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 1: think peaked that curve yet, but we are starting to 169 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: see slow downs in the volume um and all the 170 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: more reason to protect those measures that are in place, 171 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: like distancing, to ensure that that those volumes don't spike 172 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:21,439 Speaker 1: right back up as soon as a sort of quote 173 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: unquote go back to normal, Lauren. That is certainly what 174 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: I see in the fancy exponential or logarithmic charts as well, 175 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: exactly as you just described it. And so much of 176 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: that is done on a moving average, where professionals like 177 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 1: you and unprofessionals like me, or even the present United 178 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: States have to use a number of days or weeks 179 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: or months and blended together to really see the abb 180 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: How long is that moving average? What's the appropriate length 181 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 1: of time for you to gauge? Well, I think UM, 182 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: it's changing every day, and I think we're just starting 183 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: to learn more information about this virus and how it 184 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 1: behaves in people. UM. The the key is not to 185 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: make an assumption way too early, right so, UM, two 186 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: weeks is really the minimum to even start to understand 187 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: the data for you want to look at it two 188 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: weeks out. So I think we're several months before we 189 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: really can go back to UM go towards planning to 190 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: reopen and and go back to normal, Lauren, how quickly 191 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: what we get a vaccination against the pandemic. There's a 192 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: lot of really good candidates coming up right now. I 193 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: think we're we're seeing estimates from the scientists somewhere between 194 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: three and twelve months, which is unbelievable for vaccine science. 195 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,679 Speaker 1: It's really fast, and so it's exciting to see all 196 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 1: this progress being made. I think realistically a vaccine that's 197 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: ready to go out to the general public is about 198 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,959 Speaker 1: a year away. UM, but we could start seeing candidates 199 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: that could be used to protect our frontline health workers 200 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,719 Speaker 1: and for responders earlier. Probably what's the biggest challenge right now? 201 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: So there are a number of questions Lauren about, for example, 202 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: US symptomatic cases right, why are they symptomatic? And until 203 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: you find out more about them, it's very difficult to 204 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: get a handle because they keep on transmitting if the 205 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: lockdown is eased somewhat. But also immunity, how close are 206 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: we to understanding whether people that have had it can 207 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: go back safely to work. Yeah, there's a lot of 208 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 1: work being done in that immunity question right now, and 209 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 1: I think we have to because we're so early in 210 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: the outbreak. We have to wait to see how people's 211 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: immune responses stay over time and also how when people 212 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: are are ready to go back to work without having symptoms. 213 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: The biggest challenge right now I see is testing. We're 214 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 1: still trying to ramp up testing in a meaningful way, 215 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: and that is what every single other public health measure 216 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: hands up on all of those things that we want 217 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 1: to use to get back to work, to alleviate social distancing, 218 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: to be able to travel, to reduce the masks, the 219 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 1: hind one testing more very clear. Thank you so much 220 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 1: for bringing that up. What is the constraint I'm getting 221 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 1: more testing done? I think it's it's a little bit 222 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: of a supply issue and a lot of bit of 223 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,079 Speaker 1: a coordination issue. So making sure that the tests are 224 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: in the right place, that people have the ability to 225 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 1: scale up and test all the people they need to um, 226 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: that you continue to get the materials, and that you 227 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: have the people to run the tests. Lauren Son with 228 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: us with the Johns Hopkins University and Emergency Medicine as 229 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: we've been talking to people and nursing there, and also 230 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg School of Public Health. We should of 231 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: course mentioned that Mr Bloomberg has provided a mens fum 232 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: anthropy to Johns Hopkins for that School of Public Health 233 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: as the founder and owner of Bloomberg Television. In Bloomberg Radio, 234 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: we now have some turf under U S JP, Morgan, 235 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: Bank of America, Golden Sec City Group of course others 236 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: coming out in the superregionals in your community banks as well. 237 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: Synthesizing this is Kenneth Leon. Here's a CFR, a head 238 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: of research and also acutely focused on the financials. All it. 239 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: I believe it's four shops right now, ken Leon, what 240 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: is the summary? The summary is shift to balance sheet 241 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: credit risk. Uh, there's only a few weeks of look 242 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: into the the recession, so more work will be done 243 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: for the second quarter. In terms of reserves for loan losses. UM. 244 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: The question, though, always is how deep will this recession 245 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: be and how long. I guess the public markets expect 246 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: a recovery in the second half of this year, but 247 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: banks are being prudent, which essentially means that they're building 248 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: up reserves for non performing loans. That's the good news, Kent, 249 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: that they already that this balance sheet is strongest city 250 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: in our sweat too. Here's what I'm trying to get 251 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: my hands around them, and maybe you can help us. 252 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: When these guys say they're prepared and when they come 253 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: through with a que huge credit provisions like the ones 254 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: we've seen over the last couple of days, what are 255 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: they prepared for another shutdown that last a month, two months, 256 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: three months? Can you understand the duration that they're working 257 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: with their timeline that enables them to decide how much 258 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 1: money they need to put aside. What often happens is 259 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: banks are ultra conservative, which means they tend to reserve 260 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: more than what will actually happen. It is likely that 261 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: if it's a recovery later in the economy, there could 262 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: be a reverse of these reserves. But at this point, UM, 263 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: it's essentially the credit committees for these banks are being very, 264 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: very conservative. Can I'm struck by this sort of dissidents. 265 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: We're seeing the increase in credit loan loss provisions, which 266 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: is deteriorating some of the earnings potential. But City Group 267 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: just reported it's best fixed income trading revenue in eight years. 268 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: And you're seeing this consistently across the big banks, that 269 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: they are performing better when it comes to treating revenues, 270 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: and I'm wondering are people being too dismissive of this 271 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: is sort of the profit winning aspect of a dislocation 272 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: like this, and the fact that the big banks have 273 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 1: been in a position to take advantage of it. So 274 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: the banks are serving clients. And then the capital markets 275 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: trading has been strong, particularly as you know pick UM, 276 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: and it's mostly investment great as opposed to high yield 277 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 1: or other derivatives UM. We're also seeing strength and equity 278 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 1: trading with volatility UM. This shines much brighter for a 279 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: Golden Sax or Morgan Stanley as a percentage of their 280 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,199 Speaker 1: total net revenues than the large banks, which still have 281 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,160 Speaker 1: a sizable traditional loan business and just sort of dissecting 282 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: the other sort of lending functions of the banks. We're 283 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 1: seeing that the increase in c an I lending and 284 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: say Bank of America is really attributed to the draw 285 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: down on credit lines that we've been hearing a lot 286 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: about will the ultimately be a pain point for the 287 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,400 Speaker 1: banks or a point of profit going forward into what 288 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 1: will eventually be a recovery. So, first of all, in 289 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: terms of lines of credits and unrestricted lines, UM, companies 290 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 1: are taking advantage of that. When we look at that 291 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: and also look at their loan exposure, UM, we think 292 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: there's risk in terms of commercial real estate and construction. Uh. 293 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: The total lines of credit for the big for the 294 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 1: four largest bank was just about four hundred sixty billion, 295 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: four times greater than back in two thousand thirteen. Um. 296 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: You know, so a lot of this will have in 297 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: terms of how deep this can be for credit losses 298 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: will be in industries like real estate, oil and gas. 299 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: Goldman has taken a reserve ninety seven million, and UM, 300 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: you know, we really think it's really a question of 301 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 1: getting people act to work versus having unoccupied officers as 302 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: well as other real estate property types that could be 303 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:13,199 Speaker 1: at risk. City saying that numbers just incredible for our 304 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: listeners and might not have heard this eight percent of 305 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: employers around the world employees around the world working remotely 306 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: at city group of phenomenal stat the path forward can 307 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: I don't think we should be naive about this. I 308 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 1: truly believe that these banks want to help their customers. 309 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 1: Of course they do, absolutely, of course they do. But 310 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: I don't think we should be naive about the pr 311 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 1: effort going on right now. None of these banks want 312 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: to be seen laying off anybody in but they will 313 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 1: want to cut costs again. And Ken, I'm just wondering, 314 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: are we putting off this year's cost cuts for a 315 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,719 Speaker 1: huge effort next year. Well, it's a great question. And 316 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: when you look at state coach holders, it's about serving 317 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: the public their employees. I don't think investors really are 318 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 1: looking at earnings for the next quarter as well. So 319 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: when you get analytical about this with our efficiency ratio UM, 320 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: they're not going to be where the banks wanted to 321 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,160 Speaker 1: target is the mid fifty percent range. You know, that's 322 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 1: another conversation in a better environment, but at this point 323 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,679 Speaker 1: it's really serving customers and also UM due diligence in 324 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: terms of non performing loans and Kenna John's observation working 325 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,159 Speaker 1: from home. Great, what do the banks do that aren't 326 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: digitally ready? I mean, is this crisis is pandemic just 327 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 1: brought to the forefront. They're dead? Is that true? It's 328 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: over four thousand banks in the US, community banks, smaller banks, 329 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 1: and some that Stilton might have passbooks. So if being 330 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: digital Ken Ken Ken, John Fair and Lisa Bramwits don't 331 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: know what a passbook is, that's so far back. And 332 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: think you know, we're talking community bank, what are they? 333 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: What are they gonna do? Can? Seriously, what are the 334 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: non digital gonna do? Their deposits are not going anywhere, 335 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 1: and it's really a question of um whether they were 336 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: too aggressive in terms of loans. The regional banks have 337 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 1: more concentrated industry exposure, some in oil and gas, but 338 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: I think community banks will just slog along and unlike 339 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. Uh, the US banking industry 340 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: number of banks is still too large, but the concentration 341 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: of assets with banks greater than two and our fifty 342 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 1: billion is over of the total industry. Can just real 343 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: quick here, I'm wondering, what's your recommendation on stocks? Do 344 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 1: you think that they're buy or do you think that 345 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: this is sort of indicating some serious caution and risk 346 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: going forward. We didn't get this right, and we have 347 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: five recommendations on Bank of America, also on JP Morgan 348 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: and also City Group and Trading Um at low multiples 349 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: of net tangible book value. Forget about earnings. We would 350 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 1: look for the banks probably to the market performers at 351 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 1: best in your term. But if there is enough turn 352 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: in the economy, these are great cyclical stocks later this year. 353 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: Can't get to catch up with the solways Kelly on 354 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: that cfl right, director of Equity Research, on a busy 355 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 1: morning for bank kearnings Right now, folks, this is the 356 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: conversation of the day if you are part of global 357 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: Wall Street, and also, as John mentioned yesterday, if your 358 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: retirement plan has been blown up, which is a few 359 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 1: people as well. William Priest wrote a definitive book on 360 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: free cash flow a number of years ago. Was my 361 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: book of the summer one summer. It's called Free cash 362 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: Flow and Shareholder Yield, and it is a must read. 363 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: There's no other way, uh to move it. The rumor 364 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,400 Speaker 1: is the movie will be out next year. Memorial Day 365 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:21,360 Speaker 1: Week on John Farrell playing counterpart in it as well. 366 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 1: Bill Priest joins us now with Epic Investments. Bill Priests, 367 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: one of the great foundations of your life. Work on 368 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 1: free cash flow is share buy backs. They've disappeared. What 369 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: does that do to the priest mathematics? Well, thanks again, Tom. Actually, 370 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: let's go back one step and just start with the 371 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: fundamental statement. The value of any business is a function 372 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: of as ability to generate cash flow. And we define 373 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: cash flow uh where we as we subtract from the 374 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: operating cash flow of a business. And he planned capital 375 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: expenditures in all cash taxes, which gives you free cash flow. 376 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 1: And there are only five things you can do with 377 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: a dollar free cash flow. You can pay a dividend, 378 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 1: buy back stock, pay down debt, reinvest the money internally, 379 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: or make an acquisition. If you can earn a return 380 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 1: above your cost to capital, you should reinvest or acquire. 381 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,919 Speaker 1: It's the fastest way to growth shareholder value. That said, 382 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 1: most companies cannot use all of their free cash flow internally, 383 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: and as a result, they decide to return some of 384 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 1: it back to the owners of the business. Now you 385 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: can pay down debt, that's not going to happen. You 386 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,159 Speaker 1: have a cash dividend and buy backs and buy backs 387 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 1: sword after the O eight crisis, and I think you'll 388 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: see that diminished. It doesn't mean that corporations are going 389 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 1: to stop returning capital to the owners of the business, 390 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 1: but the buy back method will will come down substantially. Uh. 391 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 1: It's uh, it's one of these things where people are 392 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: going to have an attitude towards buy backs that are 393 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: not going to be positive when they visit when they 394 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: see suffering going on. That said, the corporation's job is 395 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,360 Speaker 1: the max amid the value to business to the owners. 396 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: So I think what you're going to see is a 397 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:09,160 Speaker 1: substantial diminishment of buy backs, but not necessarily cash dividends. 398 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 1: Cash dividends will be down this year for sure, because 399 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: they're going to be down, But depending on the company, 400 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 1: you'll see some like yesterday you had P and G 401 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 1: raised the dividends. Day before, I think you had Johnson 402 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: Johnson raised or cash dividends. Cash dividends are okay. The 403 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: banks are a little different. The banks have this problem 404 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: that in O eight they were viewed as the cause 405 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 1: of the crisis. Depending on what country you lived in. Uh, 406 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: they were treated well or badly. In this country, they 407 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 1: were treated rather well, and I think the populace generally 408 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,719 Speaker 1: feels they were treated too well. So this time around, 409 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 1: I do think they have to take a more socially 410 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: appropriate attitude. And I don't think you'll see any buy 411 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 1: backs by any US banks this year. And Bill they 412 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: seem to have confirmed this, UH saying that basically they're 413 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 1: not going to engage in that they're talking about the 414 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,959 Speaker 1: banks since sort of the loan loss provisions that we 415 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 1: keep focusing on here twenty four billion dollars set aside. 416 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: When you look at City Group, Well's, far Ago, Bank 417 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,719 Speaker 1: of America, and JP Morgan so far for potential loan losses, 418 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering, is there some sort of consensus 419 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: that's emerging among the big banks in terms of the 420 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: parameters of how deep this downturn is going to be 421 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: that's instructive for other earnings going forward. Well good, that's 422 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: a very good question. And I think when you look 423 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,760 Speaker 1: at what's going on, it's unclear what the what the 424 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: ultimate unemployment number will be, but it's going to be substantial. 425 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: We have roughly a hundred and we had I should 426 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 1: say a hundred and fifty five million jobs in the 427 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 1: United States unemployment rate would be thirty million people. We're 428 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: gonna be at twenty pretty easily, and we will see 429 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 1: the biggest unemployment number since since the end of World 430 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 1: War two, really since the depression. And I don't think 431 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 1: it's going to prove socially accept a bowl for any 432 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: financial intermediary to quote do well or have their senior 433 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,360 Speaker 1: leadership do well when you have that level of unemployment. 434 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: So I think you'll see very very cautious statements with 435 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 1: regarding dividends and as we said earlier, just no buybacks 436 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 1: at all. I think other companies, you've seen some people 437 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: waive salaries in some parts of the world. I noticed 438 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: they haven't weighd bonuses, but they have waived salaris that 439 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: they won't take a salary during this uh, this this tobacco. 440 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: I think you'll hear more and more of that in 441 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 1: the United States as well. It will depend on the 442 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: build out. I mean, we have to reopen the economy. 443 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 1: If we don't reopen economy, and it's going to be 444 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: an absolute catastrophe. How well reopen it it will be. Uh. 445 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,560 Speaker 1: I think it will start probably soiler than many people think, 446 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: but there will be experimentation, and it will be a 447 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: while before you get the economy fully opened up. Bill, 448 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,400 Speaker 1: thanks so much, greatly, greatly appreciate it. Just a quick 449 00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: update there too short. Thanks for listening to the bloom 450 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 451 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 452 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 453 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.