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Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. I

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Speaker 1: am the aforementioned title name of said podcast. I'm Chuck Todd.

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Speaker 1: We have let me give you a lay of the

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Speaker 1: land of the show. Today. I'm going to talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about the struggle that I think both parties

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Speaker 1: are going to have trying to figure out how to

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Speaker 1: message in twenty for campaign twenty twenty six. I will

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Speaker 1: get to that. Got some interesting first polling on the

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Speaker 1: incident in Minnesota and where the American public is on

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Speaker 1: the shooting of a civilian by an Ice agent a

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Speaker 1: civilian protester. My interview today is with an in potentially interesting.

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Speaker 1: I say potentially interesting. I think he's interesting. But when

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Speaker 1: I say potentially interesting, we'll see if he gets traction

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Speaker 1: as a candidate. But it's a candidate for governor of California,

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Speaker 1: And as I've said, I'm going to end up with

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Speaker 1: more candidates for California govern than most other sort of

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Speaker 1: individual state races because this is the fourth largest economy

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Speaker 1: in the world, and in many cases, you know, California

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Speaker 1: deals with many of the problems we're going to be

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Speaker 1: dealing with, and they deal with them first and soonest.

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Speaker 1: But I'm always intrigued when there's somebody trying to take

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Speaker 1: the center land in California, because it's pretty difficult to

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Speaker 1: win in the center land in California. And so a

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Speaker 1: candidate somebody who calls himself a lifelong Democrat turned Republican,

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Speaker 1: though I think in the conversation, I think he's kind

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Speaker 1: of always been in the sort of center center right place.

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Speaker 1: His name's John Slavitt, definitely to the left of the

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Speaker 1: two Republicans currently running in California, but choosing to run

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Speaker 1: as a Republican. He's also got his own podcast he's doing.

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Speaker 1: He's a person from Silicon Valley, made some money in

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Speaker 1: the tech world, though not enough to self fund his

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Speaker 1: own campaign, so he's not that kind of tech titan,

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Speaker 1: if you will. But I'm always intrigued by seeing, you know,

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Speaker 1: why go the partisan way as many you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: especially at a time I think the most interesting poll

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Speaker 1: number I've seen in the last week is the yet

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Speaker 1: more growth among those that are calling themselves independent rather

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Speaker 1: than a member of either political party. As my friend

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Speaker 1: Bruce Melman put it, these latest Gallup polls show where

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Speaker 1: they had twenty seven percent identifying as a Democrat, twenty

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Speaker 1: seven percent identifying as Republican, and forty five percent identifying

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Speaker 1: as independent. Well, what that really means, it's seventy three

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Speaker 1: percent of the country is choosing not to be a

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Speaker 1: Republican and seventy three percent of the country is choosing

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Speaker 1: not to be a Democrat. That think about that fact

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Speaker 1: when we start to talk about what I want to

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Speaker 1: dive into before we get to my conversation with John Slavitt,

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Speaker 1: which is how do you message in this political environment,

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Speaker 1: because I think it's going to be quite difficult. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to get to that in a second. Obviously

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Speaker 1: after the interview I've got. It is Wednesday, and every Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: I want to have a new top five list. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm playing the algorithmic game, so assume me. But it's

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Speaker 1: a little point of privilege. It's my podcasts, my top

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Speaker 1: five lists, So yes, it will be about the Miami Hurricanes,

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Speaker 1: so deal with it. But even if you're not a

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Speaker 1: fan of the Hurricanes, if you're a fan of college football,

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Speaker 1: if you're a fan of sports history, I think you'll

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Speaker 1: like my top five list. And then we'll do some

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Speaker 1: Q and I always a popular segment. So but let

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Speaker 1: me dive into this issue of what I think is

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Speaker 1: going to be an extraordinarily challenging message, because you know,

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Speaker 1: when it comes to campaign twenty twenty six, we already

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Speaker 1: know the three endings. Okay, we just don't know which

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Speaker 1: ending it's going to be, and we don't know how

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Speaker 1: we're going to get there. But the time the votes

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Speaker 1: are counted next November, the verdict is going to be instant.

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Speaker 1: Even if we're not quite sure of the meaning right away. Right,

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Speaker 1: If Democrats win both the House and the Senate, it's

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Speaker 1: going to be framed as a full rebuke of Donald Trump. Hartstop.

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Speaker 1: If Democrats only win the House, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: called a partial rebuke, and everyone will obsess over the

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Speaker 1: size of the majority. Right, if it's twenty to thirty seats,

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Speaker 1: you know, there'll be those that are going to say

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Speaker 1: this was a blue wave. Right. I think you have

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Speaker 1: a hard time calling it a wave without winning both

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Speaker 1: thousand the Senate. But I digress. I'm going to get

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Speaker 1: to the political map in a few minutes. And then,

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Speaker 1: of course, if Republicans hold both chambers, well you'll have

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Speaker 1: a spiraling Democratic Party if you will, and Republicans will

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Speaker 1: feel vindicated and Trump will claim total validation. So those

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Speaker 1: are the three basic outcomes. So we kind of know

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Speaker 1: one of those, you know, door number one, Door number two,

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Speaker 1: door number three. I think there's the most likely scenario

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Speaker 1: is somewhere. It's either one or two. Three feels like

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Speaker 1: a pretty far fetched given where we're starting, because I

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Speaker 1: think it is worth noting, and it's it's a It's

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Speaker 1: a point I made in my weekly podcast with Crystalize

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Speaker 1: on his substack feet, which is, you know, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: politically could is starting in an extraordinarily weak place, yet he's

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Speaker 1: behaving as if he's got an extraordinary amount of political capital, right.

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Speaker 1: I kind of think he's yellowing it a little bit,

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Speaker 1: which is why one of the reasons and the point

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Speaker 1: I made a couple of the last podcasts that why

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Speaker 1: I think twenty twenty six is the year we're all

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Speaker 1: living dangerously is that we have a president who who

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Speaker 1: may personally feel very strengthened by you know, or uninhibited,

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Speaker 1: and that the Venezuela operation tactically went so smoothly that

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Speaker 1: he's going to think, hey, this is easy. I can

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Speaker 1: start playing the game of risk all over the world.

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Speaker 1: So which is why I think there's so much extra

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Speaker 1: uncertainty at this moment. So look, we that's why I'm

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Speaker 1: very skeptical that somehow this turns around. So well, I know,

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Speaker 1: Republicans believe that when the tax refunds come in that

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Speaker 1: that will start to make people feel better about his

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Speaker 1: economic plans and his economic ideas. Let's let's see what

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Speaker 1: happens when we get there doing what he did with

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Speaker 1: the FED. He is you know, it is why if

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Speaker 1: you caught my update on that. By the way, I

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Speaker 1: did a special update in between podcasts on the YouTube channel,

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Speaker 1: So I encourage you to go check it out if

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Speaker 1: you follow me in some socials, you may have already

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Speaker 1: seen this, But you know, I have a feeling and

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Speaker 1: the guidance I was trying to give on that story

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Speaker 1: is I think you're going to see a quick exit

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Speaker 1: ramp from this phony investigation into the chairman of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. The Treasury Secretary's panic, half the White House

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Speaker 1: staff is panic. Even Trump's trying to walk away. Senate

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Speaker 1: Republicans don't want any part of this, you know. If

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Speaker 1: he's hoping to remake the FED, he just you know what,

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Speaker 1: Janine Piro, his sort of personal US attorney that he

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Speaker 1: appointed there in DC, really sort of set his set

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Speaker 1: him back quite a bit here. So I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: surprised if you see a quick retraction of this investigation,

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Speaker 1: even faster than what I speculated with a couple of

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Speaker 1: days ago. So that said, we still look, we know

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Speaker 1: there are a range of outcomes about these midterms. What

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Speaker 1: we don't know and what's going to matter quite a bit,

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Speaker 1: and what I'm going to be looking for throughout campaign

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in order to understand where we're headed

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Speaker 1: in campaign twenty twenty eight, our first attempt at are

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Speaker 1: true and electing a president for the post Trump era

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Speaker 1: is why voters will choose the outcome that they choose,

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Speaker 1: and that uncertainty is this central challenge of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Because the election isn't just about what voters think of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. It's also going to be how to talk

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Speaker 1: to an electorate that is more fragmented, less partisan, as

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Speaker 1: I just outlined with this, more people identifying as independent

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Speaker 1: than either as R or D, and more exhausted than

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Speaker 1: at any point this century in politics. So twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six is functionally going to be a referendum on Trump.

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Speaker 1: That part is obvious. What's not obvious or easy is

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Speaker 1: how you turn a referendum style campaign. How you run

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Speaker 1: a referendum style campaign without alienating the voters who will

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Speaker 1: actually decide it. Because the voter's in the middle. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe they don't like Trump personally, but they don't mind

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Speaker 1: the disruption. Maybe they don't like the disruption, but they

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Speaker 1: like Trump. You know, they're the hardest voters to win over,

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Speaker 1: and they're the decisive voters, and that's where I'm most

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Speaker 1: interested to see how political messaging gets formulated to go

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Speaker 1: after that group of voters, because you know, coalitions are

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Speaker 1: never united around one belief, They're stitched together from competing motivation. So, yes,

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Speaker 1: being a resistance Democrat is going to matter to some

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Speaker 1: base voters. Being a Trump Republican is going to matter

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Speaker 1: to some Republican base voters. But elections are going to

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Speaker 1: be one. There are always one on the margins, They're

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Speaker 1: never you know, yes, how big your political base is

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Speaker 1: determines how many voters in the margins you need to

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Speaker 1: win over. But you always need some voters on the margins.

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Speaker 1: And these days, these marginal voters and these margins are

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Speaker 1: filled with a lot more skeptical independence than we saw

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Speaker 1: even two years ago, very weakly affiliated voters with both parties,

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Speaker 1: you know. So, yeah, I guess I'm leaning Democrat. I

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Speaker 1: guess I'm leaning Republican. But I'd prefer to be an independent.

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Speaker 1: Those type of folks and people who do not experience

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Speaker 1: politics the way activists do. Right, I've always said there's

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Speaker 1: a difference between the online political world and the world

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Speaker 1: everybody else lives in. That goes to a safe way

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Speaker 1: and I'll lease a B Jay's at costco, you name it.

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Speaker 1: So the real question I have is this, what do

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Speaker 1: these voters want? Right? Do they want disruption? Do they

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Speaker 1: want competence? Do they want bipartisanship? Do they want stability?

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Speaker 1: And Here's where I think a lot of analysts, myself included,

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Speaker 1: can get this wrong sometimes because one of the most

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Speaker 1: common mistakes in political analysis is projecting your own values

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Speaker 1: onto the electorate. Right. I know what I look for,

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Speaker 1: all right, in a in a political candidate, I look

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Speaker 1: for character, ethics, competence, and innovation without being reckless, you know.

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Speaker 1: But that's me, and I know other people look at

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Speaker 1: it differently, And I think too often folks, and you know,

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Speaker 1: folks will project their own political what they would like

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Speaker 1: to see out of a politician onto an entire group

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Speaker 1: of swing voters. I know, all of this is our pieces.

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Speaker 1: What I'm curious to see is what will move what? What?

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Speaker 1: What is it that this group of skeptical voters who

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Speaker 1: can you to vote, who continue to tell us what

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Speaker 1: they don't want? Is there something they will embrace? Is

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Speaker 1: there something to learn in twenty twenty six that can

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Speaker 1: tell US a little bit more about twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: So the bottom line is, I know I'm not the

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Speaker 1: avatar for the American voter, but neither is most everybody else,

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Speaker 1: Which brings me to the core strategic question of this cycle.

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Speaker 1: In a fragmented media environment and a polarized political culture,

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Speaker 1: what is the most effective way to win in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six? How much base resistance, either left or right

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Speaker 1: do you have to espouse? Well, a lot of it

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Speaker 1: has to do, of course, with the electorate you have

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Speaker 1: to deal with right. If you're dealing with a primary electorate,

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Speaker 1: that's one thing. If you're dealing with a very purple electorate,

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Speaker 1: that's another. And what's interesting to me is I think

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Speaker 1: both parties are kind of divided on which path to take.

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Speaker 1: So let me start with the Democrats. It's if you

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Speaker 1: intermal life are easy to make, referendums easy to run

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Speaker 1: as resistance campaigns. So in some ways resistance is going

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Speaker 1: to feel like the easiest path to midterm success. Maybe

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Speaker 1: it is, But I also sense and you see it

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Speaker 1: here in this sort of distinction rum of manuals trying

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Speaker 1: to create within the within the world of the president,

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Speaker 1: which is well there's the resistance, folks, and then there's

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Speaker 1: the renewal. He calls it renewal. I call it the

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Speaker 1: problem solving way. So for Democrats' debate is, you know,

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Speaker 1: might be framed as resistance versus governance, but maybe the

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Speaker 1: better way to describe it is Trump accountabiit. How much

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Speaker 1: should you focus on accountability for Trump, the administration and

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Speaker 1: the individual versus how much should a Democratic candidate in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six focus on forward facing problem solving? Hard

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Speaker 1: stop Now, the best politicians are going to try to

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Speaker 1: do both. But there's a trap there. There's a fine

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Speaker 1: line between defending the rule of law and sounding obsessed

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Speaker 1: with procedure. What one voter sees as accountability, another sees

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Speaker 1: as disruption or worse, political grievance gets dressed up as principle.

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Speaker 1: So abusive argument power arguments absolutely can energize a base,

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Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, but they are not always persuasive

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Speaker 1: to voters who want politics to feel less consuming, not more. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: for instance, I do not think that Democrats sweeping the

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Speaker 1: House and Senate means they have a mandate to impeach

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Speaker 1: and convict Donald Trump. Right, you know that that's sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, I think it's more of they're trying

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Speaker 1: to turn the page. They want to see a check

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Speaker 1: on him. They don't want to have him run rough

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Speaker 1: shot over the constitution. To me, that is what voters,

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Speaker 1: what the large chunk of voters are trying to say.

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Speaker 1: But we will find out, won't we. But I do

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Speaker 1: have a question that I would love to see every

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Speaker 1: Democrat running for office answer clear simply so I know,

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Speaker 1: as a voter, and you know as a voter, how

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Speaker 1: they're going to behave while in office. It's not a

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Speaker 1: gotcha question to me, it's simply a governing signal. Would

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Speaker 1: you work with Donald Trump? And if so, how would

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Speaker 1: you do it? Because how you answer that question as

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Speaker 1: a candidate tells me how voters tells voters how you

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Speaker 1: planned to govern in twenty twenty seven and twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: It's in some ways running in twenty twenty it's going

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Speaker 1: to be easier. Can we're moving on from Donald Trump?

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Speaker 1: Even the Constitution says we're moving on from Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: But if you're running in twenty twenty six, you got

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Speaker 1: to govern with him. And there's a chunk of voters

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Speaker 1: who don't aren't going to sit there and say, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we'll wait till there's unified democratic control or there's no no,

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Speaker 1: no no. They want you solving problems now, they don't

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Speaker 1: want you postponing. We've had enough of this postponement. We've

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Speaker 1: had enough of this. So look, I think that some

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Speaker 1: Democrats are going to say when I asked the question,

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Speaker 1: would you work with Donald Trump? And if so, the

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Speaker 1: say no, because they will argue that even agreeing with

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Speaker 1: him on one issue, say capping credit card rates, like

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Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump may may work together on

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Speaker 1: they might say, you're just granting legitimacy to him on

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Speaker 1: everything else that I don't agree with. And I get

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Speaker 1: that argument. Now I happen to disagree that ultimately the

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Speaker 1: voters sent both Donald Trump. You know, I might argue

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Speaker 1: that the voters are twenty twenty four sent Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: to be president, and the voters twenty twenty six may

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Speaker 1: send a bunch of Democrats in Congress, and they're saying,

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Speaker 1: you figure it out, but we do not want one

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Speaker 1: party control, because every time they've gotten one party control,

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Speaker 1: they quickly get the other party involved in governing. So

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Speaker 1: that's why I come down on the voters are asking you,

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Speaker 1: whether you like it or not, figure out how to

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Speaker 1: work with him where you can. That said, I get

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Speaker 1: the argument, and I understand the principle you know where

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Speaker 1: I sit doesn't matter. Is that what a majority of

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Speaker 1: the constituents in the election you're running in want, And

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Speaker 1: in some cases they may want that, And I get it,

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Speaker 1: But I do think voters deserve to know the difference

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Speaker 1: between refusing to compromise and refusing to govern. And Democrats

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Speaker 1: are gonna have to decide how much they want to

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Speaker 1: be resistance warriors and how much they want to be

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Speaker 1: problem solvers. And this will be I think, a brighter

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Speaker 1: divide in twenty twenty eight. It's going to be. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be in some cases you may have

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Speaker 1: to quit to see those differences here. But I'm one

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Speaker 1: who believes and will find out that's why we hold

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Speaker 1: these elections. I don't want to assume I know the

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Speaker 1: answer to hear, but I think ultimately that last group

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Speaker 1: of voters that has waffled and that has been voting

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Speaker 1: against rather than voting for, I think they're going to

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Speaker 1: be more persuadable on a problem solving than they are

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Speaker 1: in resist. But we shall see. I tend to believe

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Speaker 1: that ultimately voters are going to decide how they want

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump to be dealt with. They put him there

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Speaker 1: a second time. I think that you can't ignore that

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Speaker 1: if you're on the resistant side of things. So then

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Speaker 1: you ask yourself what you need to answer the question

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Speaker 1: why do voters keep doing Why did voters do it

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Speaker 1: a second time? Why? Right? What wasn't that they weren't

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Speaker 1: satisfied with? And you know, I think you can't keep

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Speaker 1: going down the road. Well, they're just not well informed.

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Speaker 1: I think these days, everybody kind of knows where he stands.

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Speaker 1: Everybody kind of knows what you're going to get. So

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Speaker 1: I think you have to sort of deal in the

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Speaker 1: reality that you have, not the one that you wish existed. Now.

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Speaker 1: History suggests that forward looking messages usually do outperform backward

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Speaker 1: looking ones, especially with swing voters. Who's looking to the future,

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Speaker 1: who's building a bridge to the twenty first century? Who's

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Speaker 1: building a bridge to the twentieth century? Right? Trump now

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Speaker 1: is fair? And now that said, Trump's won basically one

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Speaker 1: of the few politicians in my lifetime who's succeeded by

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Speaker 1: constantly relitigating the past. That is normally not a winner

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Speaker 1: in presidential politics, and he made it a winner in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. In fact, you know, his twenty sixteen

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Speaker 1: campaign wasn't as backward looking as his twenty twenty four campaign,

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Speaker 1: but I would argue it really simply worked with his base,

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Speaker 1: and then you had reluctant swing voters decide, I don't

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Speaker 1: think Biden Harrison know how to manage this economy. I'll

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Speaker 1: take Trump. And so that's I think how we ended

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Speaker 1: up where we ended up. But if you assume that

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Speaker 1: most swing voters aren't political diehards, and that they're frankly

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Speaker 1: a bit self interested, right, And I say that descriptively,

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Speaker 1: not critically, I think most voters vote in their self interest,

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Speaker 1: not in the greater interest. Okay, there are you know,

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Speaker 1: I've called them. I used to. You know, they're sort

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Speaker 1: of aspirational voters, and there's narciss and there's sort of

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Speaker 1: me first, you know, forget America first, me first voters.

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Speaker 1: I think most people vote what's in their own best interest,

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Speaker 1: and then they rationalize it by saying, well, they think

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Speaker 1: it's in the greater good as well, But ultimately they

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Speaker 1: want to know what helps them, not necessarily who won

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Speaker 1: chuck brings me to political exhaustion. We're now entering the

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Speaker 1: tenth year of the Trump era. I brought this up before.

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Speaker 1: I think the fatigue is real, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: part of why he can't seem to recover from from

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Speaker 1: It's sort of like, oh, he's the same Trump, and

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Speaker 1: so that's why people haven't sort of given they already

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Speaker 1: gave him a second, third, and fourth chance. So I

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Speaker 1: don't know if this is very recoverable, just like with

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden once he lost it after afghanistdate wasn't recoverable

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Speaker 1: because I kind of think he was too known of

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Speaker 1: a figure even though he was a first term president.

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Speaker 1: Hey been vice president, he'd been there. You know, there

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Speaker 1: was wasn't there there. There wasn't going to be the

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Speaker 1: same level of patience that a Bill Clinton got, a

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Speaker 1: George W. Bush got, and even the Donald Trump got

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Speaker 1: the first time, or what Baraco or the or the

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Speaker 1: or the benefit of doubt, Barack Obama got the end

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Speaker 1: of his first term even though the economy hadn't quite

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Speaker 1: yet turned around, but he got there because he was

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Speaker 1: still seen as his new ish to this. So I

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Speaker 1: think this time fatigue is real, and I don't know

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Speaker 1: where that's going. So I think that a turn the

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Speaker 1: page messaging in some form may be more appealing to

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Speaker 1: independence than being seen as perpetually resisting. And I would

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Speaker 1: argue there's a piece of the Republican base that's perpetually

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Speaker 1: resisting the grievance side of things, and on the Democratic side,

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Speaker 1: the Trump resistance. I don't want to say that to

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Speaker 1: say resistance is wrong, and I don't even want to

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Speaker 1: imply that resistance is futile. I think resistance is necessary

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Speaker 1: when it goes up against the constitution, but I just

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Speaker 1: don't think it's sufficient to win elections. Right. It may

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Speaker 1: be sufficient to win primaries, but I'm not sure it

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Speaker 1: wins general elections. Look, none of this is definitive, but

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Speaker 1: I will just tell you in the past, optimism usually

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Speaker 1: wins in elections unless it misreads the mood of the electorate. Right.

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Speaker 1: And the truth is, that's something we don't fully know

427
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: yet is which message is going to land the hardest

428
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. It could be that we're in

429
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 1: such a cranky mood that optimism and trying to turn

430
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: the page doesn't work because people aren't ready to look ahead.

431
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: They want to deal with the problems staring them in

432
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: the face. But that's where that's why I think this

433
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: is a this might be a bit of a moving target,

434
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 1: and why that in my larger thesis here why I

435
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: think messaging in twenty twenty six is not going to

436
00:25:55,560 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: be easy because of fragmentation, Because I think somewhat resistant

437
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: and somewhat turned the page and there's just going to

438
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 1: be this isn't going to be as easy as you think. Now,

439
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: let's turn to the Republicans, because I kind of think

440
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: they do face eight what I call a mirror image dilemma.

441
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: There's a simple math problem that they have to deal

442
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: with in primaries, Republican primaries, because the easiest way to

443
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: win is to make the election about Donald Trump in

444
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 1: a primary. Right, if you can be the defender of

445
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: Trump and trump Ism in the primary and the sort

446
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 1: of the big the chief bulwark against anybody trying to

447
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 1: get rid of Trump, that's good politics for you in

448
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: a Republican primory. But the more the election is about Trump,

449
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 1: the more you do risk alienating the middle in a

450
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: general election, especially if you're from a competitive state, including

451
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: places like Texas or even Iowa or even Kansas. In theory,

452
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 1: this should create space for pragmatic Republicans to survive. In practice,

453
00:26:54,080 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 1: partisanship and fear of disloyalty make that nearly impossible. You know,

454
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: if I were a Republican office holder, it would really

455
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 1: piss me off that Trump is allowed to triangulate on

456
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 1: any issue whenever he wants. He's allowed to go off

457
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: the reservation and say, yeah, I'm calling up Elizabeth Warren,

458
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about capping credit card interest rates.

459
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 1: But if another senator says they want to work with

460
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren to do X Y or Z, you know,

461
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 1: the loyalty police will be like, there's a rhino. What

462
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: kind of Soros bribery money has suddenly been slipped into

463
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 1: so and so's kool aid drink? Right, So it's it's

464
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 1: fascinating with Trump. It sort of he gets to sort

465
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: of triangulate and shift and duck and dodge. But if

466
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 1: another elected Republican who's actually going to be on the

467
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: ballot in twenty six attempts it, there's usually some sort

468
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: of loyalty police that is calling the Maga cops on

469
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: these folks. So he can flirt with capping credit card

470
00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: interest rates, but I'm not sure Dan sulliv And can

471
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: do that.

472
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 2: Right.

473
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: He can break ideological rules without consequence, but good luck

474
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: if you're John Cornyn and you try to do that,

475
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 1: and so you end up with a party right now

476
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: that they're stuck in a strange trap. Trump can redefine

477
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: conservatism on the fly, and he does it quite a bit,

478
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: but anyone running under his banner is punished for trying

479
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 1: to do the same, so you have the primary incentives

480
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 1: that reward loyalty tests even when those tests weaken candidates

481
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: for November see Texas Ken Paxton. And then there's governing.

482
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: Republicans technically control the House. Functionally, they often don't. There's

483
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: such narrow margins that we now have had health absences,

484
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: basic life realities, a car accident, a health issue, this

485
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: or that, that mean the majority is extraordinarily fragile at best.

486
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: There was a time last week where there were two

487
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen Democrats and two n thirteen Republicans. Neither

488
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: Republicans didn't have a majority, and they had to be

489
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: careful which votes they put on the floor, which puts

490
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: the party in an interesting place at the moment because

491
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: there are many Republican incumbents, both in the House and

492
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: the Senate, who would love one more attempt at legislating

493
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: before twenty twenty the campaign of twenty twenty six, they'd

494
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: like to do another reconciliation bill, these you know where

495
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: you only need fifty votes in the Senate so you

496
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: can get you know, so your party sort of party

497
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: line votes and get some stuff done. They did the

498
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: one big, beautiful bill, but they want something else tangible

499
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: to run on before a tough midterm. But the problem

500
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: they got is President Trump appears to be increasingly uninterested

501
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: in working with Congress at all, even when his party

502
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: is in charge. I've talked to multiple Republican lawmakers who

503
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: say they'd like to do a reconciliation bill, but admit

504
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: the White House doesn't seem to be that interested in it.

505
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: And if he's not going to move be interested in it,

506
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to get the votes

507
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 1: they need. They're not going to be able to define

508
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: with the what would be and said reconciliation bill and

509
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: what happens? Well, what's the point of what are Republicans

510
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 1: running to do to keep their majority?

511
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 2: To do?

512
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 1: What with it? If Donald Trump won't even let them

513
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: use their majority to do something? This calendar here, So

514
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: his disengagement doesn't just frustrate lawmakers, it undermines their entire

515
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: campaign argument. If the President doesn't seem to care about

516
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:23,959
Speaker 1: legislating even when Republicans control Congress, then why should voters

517
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: care about preserving the Republican majority in twenty twenty six.

518
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: This is the mistake that they're going to make. But

519
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: you know, by not doing some trying to attempt to

520
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: do some legislating. Now, maybe the majorities are just too

521
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: narrow and they don't think a reconciliation bill can succeed,

522
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: and trying to do one and not getting it done

523
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: would be a massive political failure. So there's sort of

524
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: this fear of failure. But I just don't think that,

525
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: you know, ultimately, if the only thing they end up

526
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: having to run on is vote Republican to stop impeachment,

527
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: maybe that cites the president's base a little bit. I

528
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 1: just don't know if that is enough to woo a

529
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: swing voter. We'll see. Trump knows enough about how presidencies

530
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: work to understand that losing the midterm effectively ends his

531
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: ability to be any kind of activist president. And yet

532
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 1: he doesn't seem ready to help his fellow Republicans actually

533
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: legislate so they could actually make a case for why

534
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: they're needed in Congress. And in fact, he's cutting off

535
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: his own party off at the knees. And if you're

536
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: trying to we've noticed that a bunch of Republicans are quietly,

537
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 1: you know, trying to get distance from Trump where they

538
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: think it's necessary. Right, you have a growing number of

539
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 1: Republicans willing to vote for Obamacare subsidies, growing number of

540
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: Republicans in the Senate willing to put a check on

541
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: the War Powers Act when it came to military action

542
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 1: in Venezuela, Greenland, etc. You have a growing number of

543
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: Republicans of the Senate. You don't like what the hell

544
00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: he's messing around with the independence of the FED. So

545
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,959
Speaker 1: there's certainly plenty of places Republicans would like to declare

546
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: some independence, and yet they can't. But Donald Trump can, right,

547
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: He gets to go all over the map. But if

548
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: a Republican down the ballot attempts to do it, the

549
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: Rhino police get called, which also brings me to what's

550
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: actually happening on the ground. This week, Democrats got a

551
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: huge recruiting victory out of Alaska. They have a real

552
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: Senate candidate in a state that is not always easy

553
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 1: for them to win. The last time they won a

554
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: senenceat in Alaska, it took an indictment of the sitting

555
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: senator essentially to make that a plausible But it isn't impossible,

556
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 1: especially Alaska has shown it may be it is certainly

557
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: a libertarian leaning conservative red state, but emphasis on libertarian.

558
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: They're very skeptical of government in general, strong government in general.

559
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 1: And there's a reason why Lisa mrcous keys sort of

560
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: in some ways more of the avatar of the Alaska

561
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: voter than anybody else that's been in power. But it's

562
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: a big deal to recruit Mary Patello, and she is

563
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: somebody that what was in her best interest, what was

564
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 1: in her best interest, might have been running for governor.

565
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: It's a less partisan race, it's a more Alaska focused race.

566
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: She wouldn't have to get into the Trump wars, but

567
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: the fact that she's wanting to take one for the party.

568
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: This is the harder race. Running for the Senate. She's

569
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: challenging an incumbent who's no Maga Republican in Dan Sullivan.

570
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: First time I interviewed him I meet the press, he

571
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: described himself to me as a McCain Republican. I'm not

572
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: sure he's going to use that phraseology right now, because

573
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 1: that can you know, he's gotten away with looking conservative

574
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 1: when he stands next to Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. So

575
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: I don't think many sort of mainstream conservative Republicans realize,

576
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: you know, he's much more of a moderate and very

577
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: much in international on that front, because that's when he

578
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: told when he said he's a McCain Republican, he really

579
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: was trying to emphasize the national security side of things.

580
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is the recruitment of Peltel putting

581
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 1: Alaska in play. Democrats can now plausibly point they need

582
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: four pick up four Senate seats and hold Michigan, in Georgia,

583
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 1: They're in New Hampshire, They're and Minnesota. Okay, therese are

584
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 1: four vulnerable open seats that they have to defend. One

585
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 1: is not open in Georgia, but three the Michigan, Minnesota,

586
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire are those aren't easy to defend. I

587
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: think the light blue states are defensive, easier to defend

588
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 1: in a mid term with Trump in the white House

589
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: than if it were a mid term with Biden in

590
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: the white House. But the Democrats have can now plausibly

591
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 1: point to five Republican held pick up opportunities. They've got

592
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: May the Susan Collins seat, which she may or may

593
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 1: not seek reelection. Some longtime Collins observers have noted she's

594
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: not yet filed. Now filing deadline still a couple months away.

595
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: Noting North Carolina. We've seen both. I mean, Roy Cooper,

596
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 1: the former governor there, is raised a s ton of money.

597
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: Michael Wattley's doing pretty well, but he's still coming up

598
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: fifty cents to every dollar that Cooper's doing. So North

599
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: Carolina one hundred percent in play. The recruitment has shared

600
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 1: Brown in Ohio puts Ohio in play. You know, he

601
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 1: may he's got a path to forty eight. I don't

602
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 1: know if he can get to fifty. Buddy, when he's

603
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: gotten he he is won. Two of his three Senate

604
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: victories came in midterm years. Presidential years are slightly harder

605
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: in Ohio, Alaska, as I just pointed out. And then

606
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: of course the mess in Texas. You know, if Ken

607
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: Paxson is a Republican nominee, you know, any Democrats going

608
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 1: to keep that competitor, so they actually you know, they

609
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: need four and they got five in play. And when

610
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 1: you've recruited someone like when you've gotten a recruit like

611
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: Mary Peltello in Alaska, well, now if you're trying to

612
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: get the outgoing governor of Kansas, Lord Kelly, or the

613
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: congresswoman in Kansas, Scharise Davis to think about running in

614
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: the Senate, you can point to Alaska and if you're

615
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: if you're trying to decide whether to put some resources

616
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 1: into Iowa, I think it's pretty clear that there's enough

617
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 1: political tumult in Iowa this year open race for governor or.

618
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 1: Democrats have a strong candidate that Iowa I think is

619
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: in place, So that would be a six. Maybe you

620
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 1: get a seventh in Kansas. Maybe you get a Jared Moskowitz,

621
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: a Democratic Congressman from South Florida, to suddenly jump into

622
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 1: the Senate race. Now in Florida, maybe you can can

623
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: put the old Marco Rubio seat, which is being held

624
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: by an appointed senator on that one. The point is

625
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 1: is that that recruiting coup in Alaska only potentially opens

626
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 1: the door to get a serious recruit in Kansas, get

627
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:52,280
Speaker 1: a serious recruit in Florida, maybe even open the door

628
00:36:55,680 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: in a in a Mississippi. But it's bottom line, the

629
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 1: Democrats are much further along in putting the Senate in

630
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: play than I expected at this point in the calendar.

631
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 1: Even in six when they needed six seats, they had

632
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 1: to put eight series in play in order to win

633
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: the six. This point in time nobody thought they could

634
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 1: get the six. It was like, how many you know,

635
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 1: how close are they going to get? Can they get

636
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: close enough that they can win the Senate by eight

637
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 1: pick up three or four? And that was the conversation

638
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: at this point in time in that calendar. Well, here

639
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: we are in January of twenty twenty six and Democrats

640
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: already have a path to find five in legitimate five

641
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 1: likely a six in Iowa. And we'll see if seven,

642
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: eight or nine come up. But that's I think that

643
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: is a reminder of just how precarious this environment is

644
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: for Republicans going forward. So we'll see. By the way,

645
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: one more little data point about the four seat pickup

646
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: for Democrats. Democrats need four seats to flip the Senate.

647
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: It is worth noting that over the last hundred year,

648
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 1: basically since the start of direct election of senators, the

649
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: party out of power when they gain Senate seats, the

650
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 1: average pickup is four. So Democrats only have to meet

651
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 1: the average. They don't have to overperform six, eight, or ten.

652
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: They only need four. Not easy with this map, but

653
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: now it's no longer improbable, let alone im possible, So

654
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 1: we'll see. Meanwhile, Republicans face a governing reality that's quietly

655
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: shaping the cycle. They don't really have a workinghouse majority,

656
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,720
Speaker 1: their president doesn't seem eager to help them prove why

657
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: Republican majorities matter to voters in twenty twenty six. So

658
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: that combination narrow control, legislative stagnation, and a president who

659
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: prefers unilateral action creates a messaging vacuum for Republican incumbents

660
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: trying to justify their relevance. So, look, I don't have

661
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: a clear answer of what message is going to be

662
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 1: the best message for success in twenty twenty six for Republicans?

663
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 1: Can they triangulate Trump? Unlikely? For Democrats? Is it resistance

664
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: versus forward problem solving? I'm here to lay out what

665
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: I'm looking for and let's see how this plays out.

666
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: But I do know this twenty twenty six is going

667
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: to teach us what exactly works with voters in the

668
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,800
Speaker 1: Trump era second decade? Does resistance still mobilize enough voters

669
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: to win? Does exhaustion finally outweigh anger? Do voters want

670
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: confrontation or competence or competent confrontation? And while we know

671
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: they want disruption, what does disruption look like in a

672
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 1: post Trump world. Boy, we're going to learn a lot.

673
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 1: I can't wait for election season to begin in my

674
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 1: role as political anthropologists, but I will admit I am

675
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 1: there's a reason I call twenty twenty sixth the year

676
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: we're living dangerously. I am always nervous about what kind

677
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: of tinder box we are living in, and speaking of

678
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 1: said tinder box. Before we get to the interview, John Slavitt,

679
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,919
Speaker 1: I want to give you a little update on what's

680
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 1: happening out of Minnesota. In Minneapolis in particular, Quinnipiac is

681
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 1: the first reputable polster to come out of the field

682
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 1: national poll asking what voters how voters are reacting to

683
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: the shooting. And let me just get right to the

684
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: question as far I'm going to read you the exact

685
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: question as it was worded, as far as you are aware,

686
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: do you think this shooting was justified or not justified?

687
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,959
Speaker 1: Thirty five percent called it justified, fifty three percent said

688
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 1: not justified. Only twelve percent preferred not to answer it

689
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:41,760
Speaker 1: didn't know. Let me give you a little party breakdown

690
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 1: on that. Among Republicans, seventy seven percent called it justified,

691
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,760
Speaker 1: ten percent said not justified. Among Democrats, it was ninety

692
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:54,479
Speaker 1: two percent not justified, four percent justified. Among independents, well,

693
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 1: they look like the overall majority, right. Fifty nine percent

694
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 1: of Independence said it was not justified. Just twenty eight

695
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: percent of Independence said it was justified. And there is

696
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 1: a massive gender gap, as you might expect when the

697
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 1: victim of this shooting is a mother. Anyway, sixty one

698
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,959
Speaker 1: percent of women said this was not justified. Thirty percent

699
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 1: of women said it was a narrow plurality. Of men,

700
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 1: forty two percent said it was justified, forty one percent

701
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 1: excuse me, forty four percent it was a narrow plorality

702
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: said it was not justified. Forty four percent said it

703
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: was not justified. Of men, forty two percent said it

704
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: was justified. But that is a massive so basically a

705
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,479
Speaker 1: two point difference between justified and not justified among men

706
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 1: and a thirty one point gap among those two women.

707
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 1: It is, as a friend of mine, Dante Cheney point out,

708
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 1: if we you know, he and I have been talking

709
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: about this for a long time, that what is the

710
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: what is the magabase? I think it's thirty five percent right,

711
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: that thirty five percent saying it's justified. That's the magabase.

712
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: That's not necessarily the Republican base per se, but maybe

713
00:41:56,520 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 1: it is Trump's Republican party. Few other notes from this poll.

714
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of respondents were aware of the incident.

715
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: Just to put that in context, that's sky high. That

716
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: basically means everybody is aware of the incident. They may

717
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: have gotten a different you know, seen it differently depending

718
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 1: on where they get their news. But that is that

719
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 1: is saturation in this fragmented day and age. Eighty two percent.

720
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 1: And it was across the board, right, It was eighty

721
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 1: three percent of Republicans had seen or heard about the video,

722
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 1: eighty one percent of Democrats, eighty four of Independence. It

723
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: was across the board. So this this is a story

724
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 1: that has penetrated. This is not a online story that

725
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 1: went viral. This is something I think bigger than that.

726
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: The quinnipiec did ask a couple of proof disapproved questions.

727
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: Christy no Her handling every job as Secretary of Homeland

728
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 1: Security thirty six percent approof fifty two percent disapproved. And

729
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 1: then do you approve it disapprove? Of the way US

730
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 1: Immigration and Customs Enforcement aka ICE is enforcing immigration laws

731
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: forty percent approved, five percent disapprove I think it's interesting

732
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 1: that ICE has a higher approval rating than NOME, but

733
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 1: also I higher disapproval rating than NOME. For what it's worth,

734
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 1: bottom line is that there was no there's barely anybody

735
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 1: who doesn't have an opinion on ICE. Just three percent

736
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 1: said they didn't have an opinion versus Christy No Home,

737
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: where there was twelve percent. But the point of this

738
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: poll is, look Quinnipiac. If you wanted to tell me,

739
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: Quinnipiac always seems to lean you know, one or two

740
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,919
Speaker 1: points democratic. That's true, but it's a very consistent number.

741
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 1: The point is this is a double digit gap. So

742
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any you know, the fact that

743
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: there's a clear majority, and it's a clear majority of

744
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: independence and massive majority of Democrats, and then you see

745
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 1: the Republican the other way. You know, I look at

746
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 1: any of these sort of quote whose narrative is winning

747
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 1: or whose issue profile is winning? I just always focus

748
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 1: on the independence because your group of independence, especially with Quinnipiac,

749
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,839
Speaker 1: quantifies independence. They include leaners, but it's usually an even

750
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 1: number of lean D independence and lean R Independence. That's

751
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: a big number, and that's that that's a huge gap.

752
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 1: The point is this is not playing well with any

753
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 1: voter outside the base, and it's it's hard to see

754
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: how this gets better for the administration, how this gets

755
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: better for Ice. And I think, you know, I wonder,

756
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: I wonder if Christy Nome is going to be the

757
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 1: I wonder. You know, it's funny, you know, Donald Trump

758
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: has had this whole don't know firings because he doesn't

759
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 1: want to create narratives that say this person failed at

760
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: their job. Right, That's why Pete Haig Saith has survived

761
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:50,799
Speaker 1: his incompetency at the Pentagon. I wonder if Christy nom number.

762
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,760
Speaker 1: You know, one thing Donald Trump cares about is that stuff,

763
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 1: right is poll writings. And you know, she's been a

764
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 1: terrible spokesperson for her immediate decision to come out and

765
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 1: defend maybe good base politics for her if she wants

766
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 1: to run for president in the MAGA primary. But it

767
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 1: is causing all sorts of problems for the image of

768
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: the of the party as a whole, and it's actually

769
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 1: going to set back you know, the more the tactics

770
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: of immigration enforcement are the story, the more they're going

771
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: to you know, lose the larger argument about immigration and

772
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 1: whether there's anybody that realizes, hey, you kind of you

773
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 1: need to put this story away. Christy Nome is an

774
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: easy scapegoade here. The Donald Trump first term would have

775
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: John Kelly as chief of staff, would have probably talked

776
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 1: him into dumping Gnome. At this point, I think that

777
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: there seems to be less of that. But I'm guessing,

778
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,280
Speaker 1: you know, she's I do think she's in a precarious

779
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 1: spot because she's she's not well liked in the West

780
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 1: wing circle. There's some that do like Nome, some that

781
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 1: are skeptical, some that are mad about Corey Lewandowski, who's

782
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: a close political aid, always rumored to be even closer

783
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: than that. I don't want to dabble in that, but

784
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 1: that does color the perception. You know, this is not

785
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: about what you know. Many of you listening might say, well,

786
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: why wouldn't he fire Nome? She's in competent, she's not

787
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: good at this job, etcetera, etcetera. That isn't the way

788
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: the Trump world works. But she's already she's already not

789
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: in the best place with many in Trump world. So

790
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 1: if this continues to be a political problem overall for

791
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 1: the president, she becomes when you look at numbers like this,

792
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: she becomes a potential easy scapegoat and it sort of

793
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,720
Speaker 1: exit ramp if he kind of wants to quote unquote

794
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: turn the page on this, But maybe he doesn't. Maybe

795
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: they think this is a good fight for them. I

796
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 1: don't see it, And I think this initiapoling shows you that.

797
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 1: And you know how it's not. You know it's not

798
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: good politics. Find me an elected Republican sitting in a

799
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 1: swing district who has defended it. You're not going to

800
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: find one. Let me sneak of a break. When we

801
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: come back, meet the new centrist hope. I guess if

802
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 1: you want to call it that, If there is such

803
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: thing as a center lane in California politics, is John

804
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: Slavitt the answer when we come back, having good life

805
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 1: insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I

806
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 1: was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have

807
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 1: any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.

808
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 1: My mother, single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to

809
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: figure out how am I going to pay for college

810
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 1: and lo and behold. My dad had one life insurance

811
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 1: policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was

812
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 1: important at the time, and it's why I was able

813
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 1: to go to college. Little did he know how important

814
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: that would be in that moment. Well, guess that's what

815
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 1: That's why I am here to tell you about Ethos Life.

816
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819
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820
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821
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822
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824
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826
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828
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Speaker 1: twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no

829
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830
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831
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832
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833
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Speaker 1: themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life insurance

834
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 1: is something you should really think about, especially if you've

835
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 1: got a growing family. So I've been covering politics now

836
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 1: going back to nineteen ninety two more elusive things to

837
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 1: find in American politics is a California moderate, and I

838
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 1: say that part of it is the system. Arnold Schwarzenegger

839
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 1: tried to create a system that would then incentivize the

840
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 1: center to be the governing force of California politics. Of course,

841
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 1: center depends on where you sit. Those from outside of

842
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 1: California may look at a Gavenuwsommer in Nancy Pelosi and

843
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: say they're liberal. Those that live in San Francisco would

844
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 1: say they're centrist. So some of it is sometimes perspective.

845
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 1: My guest today is John Slavitt, and he intrigues me

846
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:54,880
Speaker 1: because he's trying to do what arguably nobody other than

847
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 1: Arnold Schwarzenegger has been able to do, which is essentially

848
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 1: owned the center lane in a California gubernatorial race and

849
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: pull this off. We have seen many attempt and he

850
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: also has a background in Silicon Valley. This is also

851
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 1: in theory should be a strength and in practice in

852
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 1: the past has been a bit of a hurdle himself,

853
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: so I'm very intrigued. That's why I invited him on

854
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 1: the podcast because I think the California governor's race is

855
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: so wide open, and I think we still don't know

856
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 1: all the candidates that are going to be running. Filing

857
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 1: deadline still a couple months away. But John Slavit is

858
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 1: a I think he described himself at one point a

859
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: lifelong Democrat now becoming a Republican, but really trying to

860
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 1: see if there is a center lane to straddle. So

861
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: let's have that conversation. John, Welcome to the podcast.

862
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 2: Thank you, Chuck. Nice to see you.

863
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 1: So let me start, Well, first of all, let me

864
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 1: just start with why are you doing this? Why politics?

865
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:55,879
Speaker 1: And when was the first time you ever thought you'd

866
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:57,280
Speaker 1: get into politics.

867
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,760
Speaker 2: Well, first time I ever thought i'd get into politics

868
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:06,919
Speaker 2: really seriously decided to run a few months ago. I've

869
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 2: been interested in politics. I've been a student of politics.

870
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:12,720
Speaker 2: I've been a bit of a political and news junkie

871
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: for a long long time. I started my career actually

872
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: in media. I came to Califna at thirty right sorry Scene,

873
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 2: which was sort of an early tech meeting company, right

874
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 2: well it was. I didn't work for SNEAD, but I

875
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 2: worked for a company that joint ventured with them, so

876
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 2: you got it partially right. I worked for the founder

877
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 2: of the entertainment a guy named Yarrolman used to be

878
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 2: Lee Masters. He was the former CEO of NPR before

879
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 2: the current CEO. So I came out to California to

880
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 2: work for the founders of Wired magazine nineteen ninety five,

881
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:49,800
Speaker 2: prior to the Internet actually being a thing. So interested

882
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 2: in politics, interested in media for a long long time.

883
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 2: But I'd say that becoming a civic entrepreneur, which I've

884
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 2: done the last year with my own podcast, really gave

885
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 2: me access to people in the state, Republicans, Democrats, independence activists.

886
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I've had journalists like you on my podcast,

887
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 2: to Alex Michaelson. That really got me underneath the issues

888
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: out in the state, traveling the state every week and

889
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 2: talking about what ails the state. And my passion initially

890
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,320
Speaker 2: was to create a forum to have serious conversations about

891
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 2: problem solution in California. I'd say it was death by

892
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 2: a thousand cuts to decide to run, because you know,

893
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 2: it's a fraught time to actually run for something it's crazy.

894
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 2: It's dangerous on multiple levels and difficult.

895
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 1: It's reputationally damaging to you even no matter if you

896
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 1: do everything correctly. And that's not fair, but it's just

897
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 1: the way Paula could be. It's becomes so huge holistic.

898
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 2: Sure, I have my eyes wide open, but I'd say

899
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 2: that it was death by a thousand cuts, Chuck. There

900
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 2: wasn't one thing. It was many things. And in California,

901
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 2: I think the challenge, like many states, is civic engagement, right,

902
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 2: just the number of people who actually care. I think

903
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,839
Speaker 2: in California right now, unfortunately, there are more people who

904
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 2: care about national politics and some of those fights, you know,

905
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 2: the Newsom Trump fight, right, which gets so much energy,

906
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 2: but it doesn't actually have anything to do with what's

907
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 2: ailing the state. And then people care about some of

908
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: their local stuff. But the reality is what happens at

909
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 2: the state level has a bigger impact on people's lives

910
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 2: than anything else.

911
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 1: It's true in every state. And I'll tell you an

912
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 1: example of sort of that frustration you're expressing about the

913
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 1: lack of interest in state civics. I was when I

914
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 1: first started as political director at NBC. I was, and

915
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 1: even before then, when I was at the hotline. I

916
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: was really excited about getting to know all the political

917
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 1: reporters at all the NBC local affiliates just around the country,

918
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: and I thought, boy, what a powerful I had my

919
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 1: own thought of what this could be. And then you

920
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 1: come to find out there are like there were like

921
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 1: ten local news stations in the country that bothered to

922
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 1: have a full time political reporter, let alone a political producer.

923
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 1: And in fact, I believe there was only one in

924
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 1: the state of California had Kevin Riggs I think was

925
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: his name, at KCRA in Sacramento. He was sort of

926
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 1: in Sacramento being the state capital. That would make sense.

927
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,320
Speaker 1: But I remember, you know, you've got you got my

928
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: buddy Colin Conan Nolan down in LA who you know,

929
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:32,800
Speaker 1: and you brought up like Michaelson. But it is shocking

930
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 1: to me, and this is look we have. Local media

931
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 1: is now in a different place because of the whole

932
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 1: media disruption, but even before sort of media disruption of

933
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 1: legacy media in general and linear television, there was always

934
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 1: a lack of interest in local in state politics in California.

935
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 1: It's always been nationalized. And I didn't know if that

936
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: was because of how poorly we on the East Coast

937
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 1: report on the West coast. You know, I've never understood that.

938
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: But how long have you lived in California and how

939
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 1: long have you experienced that?

940
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 2: Well? Actually, I was going to say, we've got the

941
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:08,440
Speaker 2: California Post about about to launch, right New York Posts

942
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:09,400
Speaker 2: California Posts.

943
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 1: I mean, so an East Coast news. You know, I'm

944
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 1: not I'm skeptic. I look, I'm skeptical that it's going

945
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 1: to help teach people more about what's happening in California.

946
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 1: I think it's just going to be page six for California.

947
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:24,240
Speaker 1: But we'll find out, right.

948
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 2: Well, we'll find out. I think I think that maybe

949
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:29,480
Speaker 2: it instigates some good trouble to borrow a phrase, and

950
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,879
Speaker 2: we need more good trouble in California. I've been here

951
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 2: thirty years, so I moved here to follow, you know,

952
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 2: my California dream. Sure, as I mentioned, to work for

953
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 2: the founders of Wired magazine. And uh, you know, I've

954
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 2: worked in three different sectors in California. Uh, and and

955
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 2: had five kids along the way. And to answer your

956
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 2: question in terms of just California, do people care? You know,

957
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 2: why isn't more California state coverage a thing. I think

958
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:03,759
Speaker 2: it's becoming more of a thing. And I think that

959
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 2: if I look at my own podcast upwards, if half

960
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,280
Speaker 2: our audience is outside of California and depends on the episode,

961
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 2: So there's just a ton of interest in California, as

962
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 2: you know, from outside California looking in. If we could

963
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 2: replicate that with the passion and interest of people inside

964
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 2: California we want to get involved to change the state,

965
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 2: will do great. But I think it's actually happening. I

966
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 2: think that Ashley Zavala, who is an amazing local reporter

967
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 2: in Sacramento, is becoming iconic for actually pressing elected officials

968
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 2: to get to the bottom of issues. For instance, the

969
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 2: California state Capital. You may be familiar with this boondoggle

970
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 2: that's happened where there's a renovation project going on in

971
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,880
Speaker 2: the state capitol, so elected official is going to have

972
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 2: a better home to work in, which is fine. Was

973
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 2: supposed to cost a few hundred million. Now apparently it's

974
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: over a billion and two thousand people under nda on

975
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 2: the projects. So people are actually can't muffle to actually

976
00:56:57,719 --> 00:57:01,560
Speaker 2: talk about it. So there's a ton to talk about

977
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:06,760
Speaker 2: in California. We have the most interesting opportunity and interesting people,

978
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:10,320
Speaker 2: and it's a shame there's not more coverage.

979
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 1: Can pet peeve of You brought up NDAs and Donald

980
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: Trump does this in the federal government level. You just

981
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:19,760
Speaker 1: brought it up there. If taxpayer dollars are involved, NDAs

982
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 1: should be illegal. I mean, I don't understand. I mean,

983
00:57:24,200 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 1: I just think it's just pure and simple. If you

984
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 1: are getting compensated by federal tax any taxpayer, state or

985
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 1: federal right the government, you shouldn't be able to hide

986
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: an audit from the public in any form.

987
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 2: Well, you bring up a good point. There's an assemblyman

988
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 2: named Joe Patterson who's in the California State Assembly, who

989
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 2: I had in my podcast a while ago, and he

990
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:49,360
Speaker 2: actually is the number one, I guess instigator for transparency,

991
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 2: and he created legislation to ban the use of NDAs

992
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 2: with elected officials in California when they're you know, discussing,

993
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 2: debating and ports and issues for the state. Knew some

994
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 2: signed it to his credit. So there is some movement

995
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:10,680
Speaker 2: for transparency in California. But it's not retroactive. It's not

996
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 2: like it's unseealing every NBA sign.

997
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: Look, I get that and I understand. Look, you've been

998
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: in business. You know that you can't have every meeting

999
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 1: in public. In the immediacy sometimes you need to have

1000
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 1: space to make a decision. But eventually there should be

1001
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 1: available to the public, right, Like I think you can agree, okay,

1002
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:30,520
Speaker 1: you know within a year, it should be public within

1003
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 1: you know, a reasonable period of time. I mean, I

1004
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:38,800
Speaker 1: understand the need for some discretion, not secrecy, discretion, but

1005
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 1: like I assume common sense could actually create better legislation

1006
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 1: on that.

1007
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 2: I'll say one other thing on this and then I'm

1008
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 2: sure you're going to go lots of places that you

1009
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 2: want to go in this conversation. But I've said a

1010
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:56,480
Speaker 2: few times now since I announced for governor that I

1011
00:58:56,520 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 2: would do the major negotiations with third parties with lights

1012
00:59:00,520 --> 00:59:03,520
Speaker 2: on in cameras rolling. I think that there should be

1013
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 2: much more transparency on the major discussions that the governor

1014
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 2: and team have with counterparties. One of the biggest examples

1015
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 2: is with the very powerful unions in California that exert

1016
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 2: such huge influence. You know, public sector unions in California.

1017
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 2: They raise about a billion dollars in dues and they're

1018
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 2: donating three hundred million dollars in California annually to buy, sell,

1019
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 2: and trade politicians. And mostly what they've done is cow

1020
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 2: Democrats who are so afraid to oppose them, you know,

1021
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 2: in legislation. And so I would actually have these counterparties

1022
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 2: across the table, put my priorities on the table and

1023
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 2: show it.

1024
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 1: Let me, let's talk about your political evolution. Because you

1025
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:48,080
Speaker 1: talked about yourself as a lifelong Democrat. You say you've

1026
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 1: never voted for Donald Trump. Now you want his endorsement.

1027
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: What has he done now that has convinced you? Do

1028
00:59:58,040 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 1: you think it was a mistake that you didn't vote

1029
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:01,400
Speaker 1: for him him the first three times?

1030
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 2: Well, let me say this, you're correct in what you

1031
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 2: said so far. You know, Republicans in California have been

1032
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 2: very cute about the Trump endorsement. I think Steve Hilton

1033
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 2: and Chad Bianco, the other two serious Republicans in the

1034
01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:18,440
Speaker 2: race who we can talk about, they've said different things

1035
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 2: about endorsed by Trump. I think Chad Bianco said, well,

1036
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 2: I accept it in private. So that's all just weird cuteness. Yeah,

1037
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: President of the United States wants to endorse the Republican running.

1038
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 2: You accept the endorsement, but I think it's unlikely Trump

1039
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,400
Speaker 2: endorses me because I'm the only Republican who's going to

1040
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 2: call balls and strikes about where I agree and disagree.

1041
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:41,240
Speaker 2: And we can get into that. But if Trump endorsed me,

1042
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: it would be because he endorses where I agree and

1043
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:46,920
Speaker 2: where I have very independent minded ideas that may be

1044
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 2: at odds with his ideas.

1045
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 1: You know, I had Steve Klubeck on here about nine

1046
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 1: months ago before he dropped that, and while while your

1047
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 1: personalities might be different, he was sort of preaching the

1048
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 1: same thing. Well, and he had his own way. Yeah,

1049
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 1: he had his own way. I mean, you know, and

1050
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 1: I get this with Trump, right, there's always parts of

1051
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 1: Trump You're like, you know, he doesn't know how to

1052
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:15,600
Speaker 1: build something, but he was correct to knock something down, right,

1053
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 1: Like I've always thought that, you know, Trump, the disruptor

1054
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 1: is the necessity, but he may himself not have any

1055
01:01:23,720 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 1: good answers on what to put in after you've done

1056
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 1: the disruption, right, And I think that's always been I

1057
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:35,600
Speaker 1: think that's the struggle that change agents, whether they're on

1058
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 1: the left or the right, who want to take some

1059
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:42,320
Speaker 1: of Trump right but but not be associated with all

1060
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 1: of Trump. Is that sort of where your head is at.

1061
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 2: Well, take some of Trump. Listen, I think we have

1062
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 2: to focus on policy. So I mean, for instance, you know,

1063
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 2: there are there are many areas on policy where I agree,

1064
01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 2: but I think I have a much better uh like

1065
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 2: what is in that manner? Tell me what he's doing

1066
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 2: and style. Well, listen, I'm gonna I'm going to use

1067
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:12,560
Speaker 2: a California frame here, Chuck, because I'm running in California.

1068
01:02:12,600 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 2: Should I'm gonna I'm not gonna, you know, go global

1069
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 2: and judge every single thing going on in the world.

1070
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 1: By the way, I don't think the governor of California

1071
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 1: needs to needs to have a position on NATO right now.

1072
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I agree. I mean, listen, there are lots

1073
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:30,280
Speaker 2: of policies that will positively impact California that people may

1074
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 2: not know about. So for instance, under Trump, hud actually

1075
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 2: came out with a radical new policy on homelessness and

1076
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:39,919
Speaker 2: funding for homelessness. This is a national policy, but will

1077
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:43,760
Speaker 2: dramatically impact California in a positive way. I think since

1078
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 2: they announced it, they've kind of pulled it back and

1079
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:49,920
Speaker 2: are tweaking it, but just on homelessness. As you know,

1080
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 2: as everyone knows, we lead the nation to homelessness, twenty

1081
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 2: five percent of the nation's homeless, one hundred and ninety

1082
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 2: thousand of our brothers and sisters basically living and dying

1083
01:02:58,080 --> 01:03:01,160
Speaker 2: on the street. It's a total moral tragedy. And what

1084
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:04,440
Speaker 2: HUD said under Trump is that they're going to totally

1085
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:07,720
Speaker 2: flip the script on the way that funding for homelessness

1086
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:10,960
Speaker 2: is granted to states. To date, the way it's been

1087
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 2: done and this is a part of democratic ideology. In

1088
01:03:15,320 --> 01:03:19,760
Speaker 2: many states, and also in California, funding for homelessness has

1089
01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: been targeted at what's called permanent housing. Permanent housing is

1090
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:28,480
Speaker 2: generally a affordable housing unit in an apartment building. The

1091
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,680
Speaker 2: problem is in California that takes ten years to build

1092
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 2: and cost a million dollars. We can get into why

1093
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 2: it's insane. The Trump administration flipped that and said, listen,

1094
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 2: instead of eighty percent of the money going to long

1095
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 2: term permanent housing, eighty percent of the money should go

1096
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 2: to temporary housing. And I want to give credit to

1097
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 2: Mayor Matt Mahon, who's a Democrat moderate in San Jose

1098
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 2: who I really like because he's actually working with Dignity Moves,

1099
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:58,400
Speaker 2: the founder of which is an advisor to me. Dignity

1100
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 2: Moves is the number one organization in California deploying the

1101
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 2: tiny home communities, and you've probably seen these in various states,

1102
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:08,880
Speaker 2: and other states have done this really well, particularly Texas

1103
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 2: in Houston and Austin. But essentially, you get a crane

1104
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 2: and you drop in a small unit that locks from

1105
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 2: the inside, and you do one hundred, one hundred and

1106
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:20,200
Speaker 2: fifty of these on a site. Usually the land is

1107
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:23,360
Speaker 2: donated by a wealthy landowner who can get a tax

1108
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 2: right off for leasing that land to the city for

1109
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 2: a dollar a year, can write off the taxes, and

1110
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:33,120
Speaker 2: then you bring in the services that are needed in

1111
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 2: that site at mental health, services, security, et cetera. And

1112
01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:40,520
Speaker 2: you triage people who actually can live in a tiny

1113
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 2: home versus need the mental health system, which unfortunately is

1114
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:47,880
Speaker 2: more than half of our homeless in California. And the

1115
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 2: reason that that is opposed by what I would call

1116
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 2: the homeless industrial complex in California is the set of

1117
01:04:55,480 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 2: incentives for the structures and then nonprofits and for you

1118
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 2: to serve that population are very much oriented to building

1119
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:07,160
Speaker 2: long term permanent housing. But what we need is to

1120
01:05:07,160 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 2: get people off the street tomorrow, Chuck, Because in California,

1121
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 2: day one, a homeless person seventeen percenter mentally ill. By

1122
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 2: day thirty thirty five percenter mentally ill because they have

1123
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:21,480
Speaker 2: to get on a drug to stay awake, to not

1124
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:25,120
Speaker 2: get raped or robbed or beaten or stolen from. So

1125
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:28,600
Speaker 2: that's an example where Trump has it completely right. He

1126
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 2: just came out with another policy on real estate that

1127
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 2: I really agree with, what's kind of progressive, which is

1128
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 2: to ban the huge funds from buying up all the

1129
01:05:37,240 --> 01:05:42,080
Speaker 2: single family homes. That's another example. You know, there are

1130
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:46,080
Speaker 2: many others. I think that. I think that being generally

1131
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:50,480
Speaker 2: pro business is a good thing, and in California, California

1132
01:05:50,560 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 2: has an inferiority complex about being pro business.

1133
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 1: So let me ask you about that, because I vacillate

1134
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:07,720
Speaker 1: about California myself, and I sort of I would align

1135
01:06:07,840 --> 01:06:11,320
Speaker 1: myself with the times. It feels overly bureaucratic at times,

1136
01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:13,439
Speaker 1: and at the end of the day though it's still

1137
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:15,680
Speaker 1: the best. It seems to be a great place to

1138
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:18,040
Speaker 1: build a business, still seems a great place to find

1139
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:24,120
Speaker 1: a workforce. So you've been a very successful entrepreneur. Do

1140
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 1: you think you could have been as successful in another state?

1141
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 1: Was there was California. You've had all your success in California.

1142
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 1: You know the state must be doing something right. What

1143
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 1: are they doing right that you think has helped you succeed?

1144
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:42,960
Speaker 2: Hmm, that's a great question. Well, I did do it

1145
01:06:42,960 --> 01:06:45,120
Speaker 2: in California, so I can't speak to whether I could

1146
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:47,440
Speaker 2: have done it anywhere else. I've done it in California.

1147
01:06:47,480 --> 01:06:50,200
Speaker 2: I have California to thank for lots of things, including

1148
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 2: my kids and you know, my professional life. So I'm

1149
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:58,720
Speaker 2: hugely grateful to California, and despite all of our problems,

1150
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:04,000
Speaker 2: I wouldn't live anywhere else. You know. I think anyone

1151
01:07:04,000 --> 01:07:06,200
Speaker 2: who says, though that they've not considered moving out of

1152
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:09,480
Speaker 2: the state is lying, because even I have. Everyone has.

1153
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:12,720
Speaker 2: But you know, I want to make my life here

1154
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:15,760
Speaker 2: and help turn the state around. So I'm staying to

1155
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:22,600
Speaker 2: your point. I made an analogy the other day that

1156
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:26,840
Speaker 2: that sunshine is to California like old spices to many

1157
01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 2: men's under arms. It's basically just it's covered up all

1158
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:32,600
Speaker 2: the bad.

1159
01:07:32,720 --> 01:07:35,360
Speaker 1: I think if detorizes everything else is what you're saying.

1160
01:07:35,560 --> 01:07:38,520
Speaker 2: You know, if we had if we had the year

1161
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:41,640
Speaker 2: round weather of Seattle and Portland, we would have lost

1162
01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 2: half our people so so, yes, people love living here.

1163
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:48,120
Speaker 2: We have an amazing climate, we have I think the

1164
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 2: most talented people, industry, geography, to we have all of it.

1165
01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:54,080
Speaker 1: It's a great university system.

1166
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 2: A great use.

1167
01:07:54,840 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: I mean both the system right by the way. I

1168
01:07:58,480 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 1: think sometimes the UC system is a bit overrated. I

1169
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:04,640
Speaker 1: say this versus the cal State. You know that aspect.

1170
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:08,600
Speaker 1: I mean that is affordable first gen I mean that's

1171
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 1: an impressive state university system as well well.

1172
01:08:11,080 --> 01:08:13,400
Speaker 2: And we have we have Pat Brown to thank for

1173
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:16,439
Speaker 2: a lot of these things, you know, Jerry's dad, who

1174
01:08:16,920 --> 01:08:20,559
Speaker 2: was I think, by all accounts a great, great governor,

1175
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,080
Speaker 2: and I would give that praise. But here's the problem shock.

1176
01:08:25,000 --> 01:08:29,320
Speaker 2: I think when you work in the tech sector or

1177
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:31,920
Speaker 2: certain aspects of the real estate sector, like I did,

1178
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:39,599
Speaker 2: you have great advantages because because you're not in tech,

1179
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 2: for instance, we don't suffer in tech from a lot

1180
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:48,559
Speaker 2: of the regulations that impact other real world because you're.

1181
01:08:48,400 --> 01:08:50,960
Speaker 1: Still I mean, you're still a youthful industry. In that

1182
01:08:51,160 --> 01:08:54,080
Speaker 1: there was a lot of exemptions given to the tech

1183
01:08:54,120 --> 01:08:58,000
Speaker 1: industry by the state legislature right for years in order

1184
01:08:58,040 --> 01:08:59,559
Speaker 1: to help the.

1185
01:08:59,560 --> 01:09:08,360
Speaker 2: Tech indusis yes, yes, quite unfettered and mostly for good reasons.

1186
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:13,960
Speaker 2: And if you've got people in capital, you know you can,

1187
01:09:14,360 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 2: you know, you can thrive. Having said that, there are

1188
01:09:17,640 --> 01:09:20,479
Speaker 2: many tech companies that are moving out of California for

1189
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 2: different reasons. But here's the thing. California is a tale

1190
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:28,040
Speaker 2: of two worlds. If you have money and you work

1191
01:09:28,040 --> 01:09:31,599
Speaker 2: in certain industries, you're doing great. But if you are

1192
01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:36,320
Speaker 2: working poor, working class, middle class, the people we need

1193
01:09:36,320 --> 01:09:39,280
Speaker 2: to focus on you are hurting in California and.

1194
01:09:39,320 --> 01:09:42,960
Speaker 1: You're describing you just describe the economy for the entire country.

1195
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,040
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the current. This is why everybody,

1196
01:09:45,280 --> 01:09:47,479
Speaker 1: this is why the polling shows that people hate this

1197
01:09:47,560 --> 01:09:50,920
Speaker 1: economy because it does feel as if the haves are

1198
01:09:51,120 --> 01:09:54,160
Speaker 1: surviving and in some cases thriving, but they have not

1199
01:09:54,280 --> 01:09:56,040
Speaker 1: to have like there's no rung on the ladder to

1200
01:09:56,120 --> 01:09:57,360
Speaker 1: even grap right now.

1201
01:09:57,840 --> 01:10:01,800
Speaker 2: Well, it's very tough and against for California if you

1202
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:04,599
Speaker 2: look at all the metrics that matter. I mean, despite

1203
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:08,720
Speaker 2: the fact that we've got sunshine, Hollywood beaches and you

1204
01:10:08,760 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 2: can you know, you can go skiing, you know, in

1205
01:10:11,600 --> 01:10:13,519
Speaker 2: the morning one day and being on the beach in

1206
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:17,599
Speaker 2: the afternoon on the same day. In California, Again, if

1207
01:10:17,960 --> 01:10:20,200
Speaker 2: you're in the seventy three percent of people in the

1208
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 2: middle working class that think the state's going in the

1209
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:24,840
Speaker 2: wrong direction, which is what our polling shows and is

1210
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:29,040
Speaker 2: just sort of common sense. The reason is, and it's

1211
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:32,280
Speaker 2: in the headlines every day because California is in the

1212
01:10:32,320 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 2: bottom of every metric that matters, despite the fact that

1213
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:37,800
Speaker 2: we're the world's fourth largest economy. So if I hear

1214
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:41,439
Speaker 2: another person in California who's elected say that we're the

1215
01:10:41,479 --> 01:10:46,440
Speaker 2: fourth largest economy, my head's going to explode. Because education outcomes,

1216
01:10:46,640 --> 01:10:49,960
Speaker 2: number one in poverty, number one in homelessness, number one

1217
01:10:50,000 --> 01:10:53,080
Speaker 2: in energy costs, number one in housing costs. There are

1218
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:55,559
Speaker 2: reasons why, chuck, which we can get into. So it's

1219
01:10:55,600 --> 01:10:57,840
Speaker 2: really a tale of two worlds in California.

1220
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:04,759
Speaker 1: So let's let's talk about that. What you're an advocate

1221
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:05,599
Speaker 1: of the flat tax.

1222
01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:10,519
Speaker 2: How do not actually, I've not actually advocated for a

1223
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:11,000
Speaker 2: flat tax.

1224
01:11:11,080 --> 01:11:13,720
Speaker 1: You haven't, Okay, how would you describe your advocation of

1225
01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:16,160
Speaker 1: a It sounds like a flatter tax is what you're

1226
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:16,639
Speaker 1: looking for.

1227
01:11:17,760 --> 01:11:21,040
Speaker 2: Well, I've not actually I've not actually spoken about tax

1228
01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:26,200
Speaker 2: policy overtly yet. But my view is that if you

1229
01:11:26,240 --> 01:11:29,719
Speaker 2: look at California, you know, we've got the highest marginal

1230
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:32,720
Speaker 2: rate in the country at thirteen point three percent. And the

1231
01:11:32,920 --> 01:11:35,599
Speaker 2: reality is that in California, half of our people work

1232
01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:39,120
Speaker 2: for small to medium sized companies. The national average a

1233
01:11:39,120 --> 01:11:41,840
Speaker 2: little bit bigger, California a little smaller because we have

1234
01:11:41,920 --> 01:11:45,559
Speaker 2: such what, such huge companies operating California as well, it

1235
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:48,639
Speaker 2: sort of reduces the average. But half of our people

1236
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:51,759
Speaker 2: work in small businesses. And small businesses are the engine

1237
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:58,360
Speaker 2: of that you know, middle class upward mobility, and small

1238
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:02,559
Speaker 2: businesses that are over tax and over regulated can't can't grow.

1239
01:12:03,040 --> 01:12:06,519
Speaker 2: That's the story of California right now. So I think

1240
01:12:06,560 --> 01:12:12,120
Speaker 2: that we need a tax holiday for small businesses for

1241
01:12:12,240 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 2: several years. Well I'm not going to put out the

1242
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:19,280
Speaker 2: specifics now we're thinking about it, but I think I

1243
01:12:19,320 --> 01:12:21,800
Speaker 2: think if you are a small business under one hundred

1244
01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:28,160
Speaker 2: people again, which employ fifty percent of California residents, I

1245
01:12:28,200 --> 01:12:31,559
Speaker 2: think we should dramatically reduce your taxes over the next

1246
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:33,280
Speaker 2: few years to get things moving again.

1247
01:12:34,720 --> 01:12:40,240
Speaker 1: Where do you find look, I'm you know, the the

1248
01:12:40,280 --> 01:12:45,120
Speaker 1: grey Davis's governorship sort of imploded in part because of

1249
01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:49,640
Speaker 1: this massive deficit at the time that had happened, and

1250
01:12:50,280 --> 01:12:52,760
Speaker 1: you know, obviously Enrun was a part of it as well.

1251
01:12:52,800 --> 01:12:56,080
Speaker 1: But but there was this budget deficit that seemed impossible

1252
01:12:56,120 --> 01:12:59,960
Speaker 1: to fix some ways. That was Arnold Schwarzenegger's entire goal

1253
01:13:00,200 --> 01:13:02,519
Speaker 1: was to try to figure out how to fix this.

1254
01:13:03,040 --> 01:13:06,639
Speaker 1: And then Jerry Brown sort of, you know, became sort

1255
01:13:06,640 --> 01:13:08,320
Speaker 1: of more of a centrist compared to the rest of

1256
01:13:08,320 --> 01:13:10,720
Speaker 1: his party, and that happened. Where do you find the

1257
01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:13,760
Speaker 1: revenue that is going to be lost because being the

1258
01:13:13,800 --> 01:13:17,639
Speaker 1: fourth largest state, that's a huge budget and it is

1259
01:13:17,680 --> 01:13:18,599
Speaker 1: not easy to balance.

1260
01:13:18,920 --> 01:13:23,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, listen, here are the facts. When Newsom was

1261
01:13:24,160 --> 01:13:28,680
Speaker 2: elected seven years ago, the budget for the state of

1262
01:13:28,720 --> 01:13:33,160
Speaker 2: California annually, annually lose two hundred billion dollars. Today, at

1263
01:13:33,200 --> 01:13:36,120
Speaker 2: sixty percent higher, it's three hundred and twenty two billion dollars.

1264
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:39,360
Speaker 1: That all. Is that all since COVID How much of

1265
01:13:39,400 --> 01:13:42,080
Speaker 1: that grew sort of COVID North.

1266
01:13:43,320 --> 01:13:46,439
Speaker 2: It's been it's been a it's been a steady increase

1267
01:13:46,520 --> 01:13:50,960
Speaker 2: year after year. Jug it's not it's not been sort

1268
01:13:50,960 --> 01:13:55,120
Speaker 2: of a one year massive pickup. So we've grown sixty

1269
01:13:55,160 --> 01:14:00,320
Speaker 2: percent in our state budget since since twenty nineteen, and

1270
01:14:00,400 --> 01:14:03,800
Speaker 2: we're worse off for it. So, you know, I think

1271
01:14:03,880 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 2: that the story of California is that more money doesn't

1272
01:14:07,200 --> 01:14:10,759
Speaker 2: mean less problems. It's actually been more money, more problems.

1273
01:14:11,680 --> 01:14:14,400
Speaker 2: That that's a line from a great, great song too.

1274
01:14:14,960 --> 01:14:17,280
Speaker 2: So so where do we find Where do we find

1275
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:22,280
Speaker 2: the money? Listen? There are so many projects, chuck, and

1276
01:14:22,320 --> 01:14:25,519
Speaker 2: I'll throw out a few that are bad ideas that

1277
01:14:25,560 --> 01:14:30,200
Speaker 2: we should stop doing. And there are a whole set

1278
01:14:30,240 --> 01:14:33,360
Speaker 2: of taxes that as governor, I would also put the

1279
01:14:33,400 --> 01:14:36,599
Speaker 2: kebaj on. So here are a couple of the bad ideas.

1280
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:40,680
Speaker 2: The train to nowhere, the pejorative term for the high

1281
01:14:40,680 --> 01:14:45,280
Speaker 2: speed rail project that was really kicked off, you know,

1282
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:50,559
Speaker 2: sort of Newsome has has really promoted. We've spent sixteen

1283
01:14:50,600 --> 01:14:53,960
Speaker 2: billion dollars, We've not laid any track. The project is

1284
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:56,559
Speaker 2: now budget one hundred and thirty five billion dollars started

1285
01:14:56,600 --> 01:15:00,240
Speaker 2: it I think thirty forty billion dollars and is a

1286
01:15:00,240 --> 01:15:03,519
Speaker 2: complete boondoggle. I mean, by the time that project would

1287
01:15:03,560 --> 01:15:06,400
Speaker 2: come to fruition, we'll have a flying taxis. I mean

1288
01:15:06,400 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 2: ask you that should should it be one example?

1289
01:15:08,840 --> 01:15:11,040
Speaker 1: I agree that that boot that thing has just been.

1290
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:13,559
Speaker 2: There are many others there's.

1291
01:15:13,439 --> 01:15:17,360
Speaker 1: Been in a perfect world. Is their high speed rail

1292
01:15:17,400 --> 01:15:19,479
Speaker 1: from laed to San Francisco.

1293
01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:23,200
Speaker 2: In a perfect world. In a perfect world, Chuck, I'm

1294
01:15:23,200 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 2: not sure I can speak to a perfect world.

1295
01:15:25,200 --> 01:15:27,840
Speaker 1: All right. How about in your version of California after

1296
01:15:27,880 --> 01:15:30,920
Speaker 1: two terms, would you like to create the conditions that

1297
01:15:30,920 --> 01:15:32,720
Speaker 1: would allow for it to happen or is it just

1298
01:15:32,760 --> 01:15:35,000
Speaker 1: something that government can't afford to do these days?

1299
01:15:35,320 --> 01:15:40,640
Speaker 2: I think I think that twenty twenty seven January, we're firefighting.

1300
01:15:42,280 --> 01:15:46,800
Speaker 2: I mean, twenty twenty seven January, it's a full court

1301
01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:51,280
Speaker 2: press to just stabilize California. Stabilize the budget, stop the bleeding,

1302
01:15:52,680 --> 01:15:55,920
Speaker 2: a series of executive orders, and work with the legislature

1303
01:15:56,040 --> 01:16:01,519
Speaker 2: to work off of a affordability emergent see and enact

1304
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:05,400
Speaker 2: policies to actually bring down costs on energy, on gas,

1305
01:16:05,680 --> 01:16:07,960
Speaker 2: on housing, a whole range of things that we can

1306
01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:11,479
Speaker 2: talk about. I think for twenty forty seven, I think

1307
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:14,479
Speaker 2: California needs a strategic plan to actually lead in a

1308
01:16:14,479 --> 01:16:18,519
Speaker 2: bunch of areas, including energy, infrastructure, including a plan for

1309
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:22,799
Speaker 2: water because we're hopefully grow as a population, including growth

1310
01:16:22,840 --> 01:16:28,720
Speaker 2: for technology, and doing all the things to restore the

1311
01:16:28,800 --> 01:16:31,080
Speaker 2: dream for the next generation of kids who are basically

1312
01:16:31,120 --> 01:16:35,800
Speaker 2: moving out of California. The High speed rail project is

1313
01:16:35,840 --> 01:16:37,000
Speaker 2: not in the top few for me.

1314
01:16:38,400 --> 01:16:41,280
Speaker 1: I got you so be How are there enough of

1315
01:16:41,320 --> 01:16:44,960
Speaker 1: these projects that you think you can save a significant

1316
01:16:45,160 --> 01:16:47,559
Speaker 1: you know a lot of times these projects. I've done

1317
01:16:47,560 --> 01:16:49,200
Speaker 1: this a long time and I'm not trying to pick

1318
01:16:49,240 --> 01:16:51,840
Speaker 1: on you. You can have some high profile project, but

1319
01:16:51,880 --> 01:16:54,559
Speaker 1: they actually don't add up to it isn't enough money

1320
01:16:54,640 --> 01:16:56,640
Speaker 1: to do some of the cuts that you're going to

1321
01:16:56,680 --> 01:16:58,439
Speaker 1: want to do. Do you think there's enough money there

1322
01:16:58,479 --> 01:17:00,599
Speaker 1: in project cuts this off?

1323
01:17:01,479 --> 01:17:03,680
Speaker 2: Well, I think I think there's enough if you look

1324
01:17:03,680 --> 01:17:08,000
Speaker 2: at several areas and it's not It's not just one.

1325
01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:10,400
Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at the number one line

1326
01:17:10,400 --> 01:17:16,280
Speaker 2: item in the California budget, not surprisingly is healthcare. Okay,

1327
01:17:16,360 --> 01:17:21,240
Speaker 2: so it's about one hundred and sixty billion dollars. I mean,

1328
01:17:21,240 --> 01:17:24,240
Speaker 2: it's larger than the annual budget of the City of

1329
01:17:24,280 --> 01:17:27,160
Speaker 2: New York. Okay. The next line item.

1330
01:17:26,960 --> 01:17:30,080
Speaker 1: Re member General Motors is a healthcare company that makes cars. Right,

1331
01:17:30,160 --> 01:17:32,559
Speaker 1: this is health The cost of health care is a

1332
01:17:32,880 --> 01:17:37,120
Speaker 1: is a problem on every level of government or business.

1333
01:17:37,200 --> 01:17:38,280
Speaker 1: It's the largest right.

1334
01:17:38,320 --> 01:17:41,240
Speaker 2: Just like our federal government is a healthcare organization with

1335
01:17:41,280 --> 01:17:44,800
Speaker 2: an army. So California is not that different. One hundred

1336
01:17:44,800 --> 01:17:49,759
Speaker 2: and sixty billion on healthcare. It's estimated by the federal government.

1337
01:17:49,800 --> 01:17:51,400
Speaker 2: And this is not just you know, this is well

1338
01:17:51,439 --> 01:17:56,600
Speaker 2: before Trump that Medicare fraud is at least ten to

1339
01:17:56,600 --> 01:18:00,599
Speaker 2: fifteen percent. Okay, So we suffer from I'm that in

1340
01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:02,439
Speaker 2: California as well. So out of that one hundred and

1341
01:18:02,479 --> 01:18:05,640
Speaker 2: sixty billion, thirty billion of which comes from the California

1342
01:18:05,640 --> 01:18:08,360
Speaker 2: State General Fund, one hundred and thirty billion of which

1343
01:18:08,400 --> 01:18:10,960
Speaker 2: comes from the Feds. There's a huge amount of fraud

1344
01:18:12,080 --> 01:18:14,000
Speaker 2: which we should get to the bottom of. Now, I

1345
01:18:14,040 --> 01:18:16,800
Speaker 2: know that this is a common talking point, but it's

1346
01:18:17,120 --> 01:18:18,559
Speaker 2: a real issa fraught an abuse.

1347
01:18:18,640 --> 01:18:21,080
Speaker 1: My friend, I've heard waste, fraud and abuse as a phrase,

1348
01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:23,000
Speaker 1: I'm sure phrase going back to New.

1349
01:18:22,960 --> 01:18:25,960
Speaker 2: Cambridge of course, of course, and it's a.

1350
01:18:25,960 --> 01:18:30,639
Speaker 1: Real Bill Clinton in fairness of course, right and advocated it, of.

1351
01:18:30,560 --> 01:18:34,360
Speaker 2: Course, And it's real. And with AI, with all of

1352
01:18:34,360 --> 01:18:37,439
Speaker 2: the huge some of the risk of AI, we have

1353
01:18:37,640 --> 01:18:40,960
Speaker 2: a real opportunity to sick the right models on our

1354
01:18:41,000 --> 01:18:43,800
Speaker 2: state budget and really get to the bottom of what's

1355
01:18:43,840 --> 01:18:46,080
Speaker 2: going on. And actually I'm going to be putting out

1356
01:18:47,320 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 2: some policy and some suggestions on exactly how we do that.

1357
01:18:50,840 --> 01:18:53,320
Speaker 2: So I think healthcare is a big area. We've mentioned

1358
01:18:53,360 --> 01:18:57,240
Speaker 2: the trend of nowhere. The train of nowhere right now

1359
01:18:57,400 --> 01:19:02,559
Speaker 2: is about one hundred and twenty billion over the next

1360
01:19:02,680 --> 01:19:06,760
Speaker 2: fifteen years. Because we've spent We've spent sixteen it's going

1361
01:19:06,840 --> 01:19:09,040
Speaker 2: to cost over one hundred and thirty It's a huge

1362
01:19:09,120 --> 01:19:12,599
Speaker 2: amount of money. It's ten to fifteen billion a year.

1363
01:19:13,439 --> 01:19:17,639
Speaker 2: The next area is climate taxes chuck. So it's called

1364
01:19:17,720 --> 01:19:20,519
Speaker 2: cap and invest now in California, cap and trade is

1365
01:19:20,560 --> 01:19:23,400
Speaker 2: what it used to be called. Most citizens don't understand

1366
01:19:23,400 --> 01:19:27,200
Speaker 2: what it means. It's been about thirty three billion in

1367
01:19:27,280 --> 01:19:31,280
Speaker 2: taxes on California residents over the last number of years.

1368
01:19:31,320 --> 01:19:32,840
Speaker 2: And so the way it works is if you produced

1369
01:19:33,000 --> 01:19:37,439
Speaker 2: energy in California, you get taxed. So if you emit

1370
01:19:37,720 --> 01:19:44,600
Speaker 2: right carbon, carbon emissions get taxed in California uniquely. So

1371
01:19:44,680 --> 01:19:48,880
Speaker 2: if you produce electricity, you refine petroleum, for gas, you

1372
01:19:48,960 --> 01:19:53,840
Speaker 2: name it. Those taxes end up getting passed along to

1373
01:19:53,880 --> 01:19:57,880
Speaker 2: the consumer. So the energy producers have to have to

1374
01:19:57,960 --> 01:20:01,320
Speaker 2: mark up their prices to the Cali Fournia customer. They

1375
01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:05,000
Speaker 2: don't eat it, they mark it up just like it's

1376
01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:09,360
Speaker 2: like a tariff. And so in California. Our average gas

1377
01:20:09,479 --> 01:20:12,280
Speaker 2: if you're at ninety one unleaded, if you drive a

1378
01:20:12,280 --> 01:20:17,040
Speaker 2: gas powered car, you're paying five dollars if you're lucky,

1379
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:20,360
Speaker 2: maybe five to fifty six dollars in a ritzy town.

1380
01:20:20,520 --> 01:20:26,599
Speaker 2: If you're in eighty nine unleaded, you're paying four four fifty. Right,

1381
01:20:28,760 --> 01:20:32,840
Speaker 2: my mom in Boston pays to eighty nine and north

1382
01:20:32,840 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 2: of Boston, and so that dollar and a half extra

1383
01:20:35,680 --> 01:20:39,719
Speaker 2: is pure tax. And we also have a custom fuel mix,

1384
01:20:40,320 --> 01:20:42,719
Speaker 2: two seasons of a custom fuel mix that our refiners

1385
01:20:42,760 --> 01:20:44,960
Speaker 2: have to refine, which is state impost. Northern State does

1386
01:20:45,040 --> 01:20:46,800
Speaker 2: this check. None of the other forty nine states have

1387
01:20:46,840 --> 01:20:49,760
Speaker 2: a custom fuel mix. So all of these things they're

1388
01:20:49,840 --> 01:20:53,639
Speaker 2: taxes and they get imposed on our citizens, and we can,

1389
01:20:53,800 --> 01:20:57,639
Speaker 2: we can, and those there are many examples. We've also, Chuck,

1390
01:20:58,280 --> 01:21:01,280
Speaker 2: we've added fifty thousand full time workers in California over

1391
01:21:01,320 --> 01:21:03,880
Speaker 2: the News administration. So we started at about two hundred

1392
01:21:03,920 --> 01:21:05,960
Speaker 2: and ten thousand. Now we're about two hundred and sixty

1393
01:21:06,040 --> 01:21:10,519
Speaker 2: thousand full time workers in California, not including contractors. We're

1394
01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:13,679
Speaker 2: spending huge amounts of money on people in the keyboard

1395
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:16,240
Speaker 2: economy when we have technology that can help do the

1396
01:21:16,240 --> 01:21:19,400
Speaker 2: work I'm not saying I would mass fire people, okay,

1397
01:21:19,439 --> 01:21:23,800
Speaker 2: but when people come to the point where they're going

1398
01:21:23,840 --> 01:21:27,679
Speaker 2: to leave the workforce or not performing, we shouldn't backfill

1399
01:21:27,760 --> 01:21:32,000
Speaker 2: that role. We should actually start reducing the size of

1400
01:21:32,040 --> 01:21:36,639
Speaker 2: the state government. It's it's insane.

1401
01:21:37,040 --> 01:21:41,360
Speaker 1: Let's talk about your political identity. Why aren't you running

1402
01:21:41,360 --> 01:21:45,040
Speaker 1: as an independent? You've not really made a case to

1403
01:21:45,080 --> 01:21:46,880
Speaker 1: me that you're a Republican. And I don't mean that

1404
01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:49,879
Speaker 1: as a pejorative or anything, but sort of where today's

1405
01:21:49,880 --> 01:21:52,800
Speaker 1: republic in it look for good or for bad. Both

1406
01:21:52,880 --> 01:21:56,120
Speaker 1: parties to me are defined more by their bases to

1407
01:21:56,880 --> 01:21:59,680
Speaker 1: a large majority of people than they are by their

1408
01:21:59,720 --> 01:22:01,720
Speaker 1: different instant right I I grew up in a world

1409
01:22:01,920 --> 01:22:04,519
Speaker 1: I think one of our problems is that there's no

1410
01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:08,160
Speaker 1: we don't have ideological diversity within the two parties like

1411
01:22:08,200 --> 01:22:09,920
Speaker 1: we did when you and I were growing up. There

1412
01:22:09,920 --> 01:22:13,640
Speaker 1: were conservative Democrats, liberal Democrats, there were liberal Republicans and

1413
01:22:13,680 --> 01:22:20,280
Speaker 1: conservative Republicans. You know. You let me ask the social questions,

1414
01:22:20,320 --> 01:22:23,840
Speaker 1: because ultimately that has been the distinguishing characteristic of the

1415
01:22:23,880 --> 01:22:27,479
Speaker 1: California Republican over the years. Sort of a low tax,

1416
01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:30,920
Speaker 1: you know, fiscal conservative, but social liberal. Is that how

1417
01:22:30,920 --> 01:22:31,960
Speaker 1: you would describe yourself.

1418
01:22:35,040 --> 01:22:42,400
Speaker 2: I'd say that I'm a radical moderate marriage I'm I'm

1419
01:22:42,439 --> 01:22:44,439
Speaker 2: quoting Dan when I said I love that.

1420
01:22:44,520 --> 01:22:47,679
Speaker 1: I know Dan a little bit. I was once kind

1421
01:22:47,680 --> 01:22:50,320
Speaker 1: of uh, somebody called me a radical centrist and I

1422
01:22:50,320 --> 01:22:53,040
Speaker 1: said thank you, and they didn't mean it as a

1423
01:22:53,040 --> 01:22:56,840
Speaker 1: as a compliment. But where are you on the on

1424
01:22:56,920 --> 01:23:01,439
Speaker 1: the sort of those you know, those those sure those

1425
01:23:01,840 --> 01:23:05,120
Speaker 1: key social issues that you know, for some people become

1426
01:23:05,200 --> 01:23:08,679
Speaker 1: non starters, right guns, abortion, same sex.

1427
01:23:08,479 --> 01:23:13,280
Speaker 2: Marriage, Okay, let's see same sex marriage. People should marry

1428
01:23:13,320 --> 01:23:16,160
Speaker 2: who they love. I mean, I think that's I think

1429
01:23:16,160 --> 01:23:19,000
Speaker 2: we're way beyond that. I hope, and actually, in my experience, Chuck,

1430
01:23:19,800 --> 01:23:22,680
Speaker 2: the Republicans that I meet, and I actually went to

1431
01:23:22,720 --> 01:23:26,240
Speaker 2: my first two state conventions March in September. I had

1432
01:23:26,280 --> 01:23:28,800
Speaker 2: never gone to a convention of any party, and the

1433
01:23:28,840 --> 01:23:33,000
Speaker 2: people I met were very accepting of people at gay straight.

1434
01:23:33,040 --> 01:23:38,479
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter. Listen on the subject of abortion, you know,

1435
01:23:38,640 --> 01:23:43,439
Speaker 2: deeply personal and moral issue. I have very strong personally

1436
01:23:43,479 --> 01:23:48,240
Speaker 2: held beliefs. But we have settled law in California which

1437
01:23:48,280 --> 01:23:51,800
Speaker 2: I would strongly support. Women have reproductive freedom in California.

1438
01:23:52,400 --> 01:23:56,439
Speaker 2: I would support that because it's the law, and I

1439
01:23:56,520 --> 01:23:58,800
Speaker 2: have many friends in the pro life community who have

1440
01:23:58,960 --> 01:24:01,599
Speaker 2: very strong conviction. Is what the governor in California can

1441
01:24:01,640 --> 01:24:03,479
Speaker 2: do on that subject is focus on where we can

1442
01:24:03,520 --> 01:24:07,600
Speaker 2: all agree, which is which I think is parental notification

1443
01:24:07,880 --> 01:24:10,879
Speaker 2: if a child you know, under each child is pregnant,

1444
01:24:11,640 --> 01:24:18,400
Speaker 2: counseling and support for healthy outcomes, safe pregnancy, adoption, if

1445
01:24:19,160 --> 01:24:22,280
Speaker 2: if if a kid is you know can be led

1446
01:24:22,320 --> 01:24:26,320
Speaker 2: down that path. But I support women's rights under the law.

1447
01:24:27,120 --> 01:24:33,799
Speaker 2: In terms of guns, I'm a gun owner. I sportshoot.

1448
01:24:34,040 --> 01:24:39,280
Speaker 2: I support Second Amendment rights. I think that California has

1449
01:24:39,439 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 2: the strictest gun laws on the books, and they are enforced.

1450
01:24:43,920 --> 01:24:45,880
Speaker 2: I know that as a gun owner going through the

1451
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:47,320
Speaker 2: process of owning and training.

1452
01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:49,439
Speaker 1: Do you think their good laws? Would you get rid

1453
01:24:49,479 --> 01:24:51,639
Speaker 1: of any of them? Are? Are you comfortable with what's

1454
01:24:51,640 --> 01:24:52,520
Speaker 1: on the books?

1455
01:24:53,680 --> 01:24:57,240
Speaker 2: I think that's an area where the majority of Californians

1456
01:24:57,960 --> 01:24:59,599
Speaker 2: support the laws that are on the books.

1457
01:25:00,520 --> 01:25:03,639
Speaker 3: You worded that very much like the politician John Well.

1458
01:25:03,720 --> 01:25:05,200
Speaker 3: I think it's I think it's sir. I have I

1459
01:25:05,240 --> 01:25:08,519
Speaker 3: have personal beliefs, but as an elected official, you've got it.

1460
01:25:08,560 --> 01:25:11,559
Speaker 3: You've got you you sorry right hand you take another.

1461
01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:15,440
Speaker 1: I appreciate that. I always remind people weren't a representative democracy,

1462
01:25:15,920 --> 01:25:19,080
Speaker 1: right that ultimately that was the design that our founders had,

1463
01:25:19,120 --> 01:25:22,439
Speaker 1: which is, you know, and there's a fine line, and

1464
01:25:22,760 --> 01:25:25,559
Speaker 1: let me ask you, you know, can you is there

1465
01:25:25,560 --> 01:25:28,360
Speaker 1: an issue where you would go against the majority in

1466
01:25:28,400 --> 01:25:28,880
Speaker 1: your state?

1467
01:25:31,160 --> 01:25:35,040
Speaker 2: And is any issue? Yeah, an issue where I'd go

1468
01:25:35,120 --> 01:25:37,760
Speaker 2: against the majority of my state. Well, listen, I'll give

1469
01:25:37,800 --> 01:25:41,520
Speaker 2: you one. It's very present and just happened Prop fifty

1470
01:25:42,160 --> 01:25:47,080
Speaker 2: so participating law. Yeah. Prop fifty past overwhelmingly sixty five percent.

1471
01:25:47,320 --> 01:25:51,280
Speaker 2: So when Prop fifty was bubbling, I came out very

1472
01:25:51,280 --> 01:25:54,320
Speaker 2: strongly against it on my podcast as a no on fifty,

1473
01:25:54,360 --> 01:25:56,960
Speaker 2: meaning against the Jerry manderin just permit me, I'll speak

1474
01:25:57,000 --> 01:26:00,840
Speaker 2: for one minute on this. We actually did a documentary

1475
01:26:00,840 --> 01:26:04,479
Speaker 2: called the Big Rig, and we put that out on

1476
01:26:04,560 --> 01:26:07,200
Speaker 2: State of Gold and I interviewed, I sat down with

1477
01:26:07,240 --> 01:26:11,040
Speaker 2: twenty different leaders across the state, experts and redistricting and politicians,

1478
01:26:11,040 --> 01:26:15,640
Speaker 2: you name it. And it was a classic example of

1479
01:26:17,080 --> 01:26:19,599
Speaker 2: what to me was a power grab in the name

1480
01:26:19,640 --> 01:26:24,600
Speaker 2: of fighting Trump. And I opposed what happened in Texas.

1481
01:26:25,160 --> 01:26:27,719
Speaker 2: You know, some Republicans say, oh, well, Texas is different

1482
01:26:28,840 --> 01:26:33,640
Speaker 2: to me. De facto, when the majority party bludgeons the

1483
01:26:33,680 --> 01:26:38,240
Speaker 2: minority party to death, it's bad Texas started then California.

1484
01:26:38,520 --> 01:26:43,360
Speaker 2: By the way, the Democrats that were pro Prop fifty

1485
01:26:43,439 --> 01:26:47,280
Speaker 2: raised one hundred and twenty million dollars, spent a little

1486
01:26:47,280 --> 01:26:49,120
Speaker 2: bit more than the majority of it, but have that

1487
01:26:49,200 --> 01:26:51,439
Speaker 2: money in the coffers to do what they want to

1488
01:26:51,479 --> 01:26:54,679
Speaker 2: do for the next campaign, and we spawned all kinds

1489
01:26:54,680 --> 01:26:58,040
Speaker 2: of bad behavior across the country. Thankfully, there are some

1490
01:26:58,120 --> 01:27:03,000
Speaker 2: Republican legislators and leaders resisting doing that as well. I

1491
01:27:03,000 --> 01:27:06,599
Speaker 2: think it's bad for democracy, and so that's an example

1492
01:27:06,680 --> 01:27:10,120
Speaker 2: where I came out and made my case, which is

1493
01:27:10,200 --> 01:27:13,960
Speaker 2: counter to what most people in California think. But how

1494
01:27:14,040 --> 01:27:17,240
Speaker 2: will democrats feel when Republicans take control of the state,

1495
01:27:17,320 --> 01:27:20,040
Speaker 2: which will happen at some point in California, hopefully soon.

1496
01:27:20,520 --> 01:27:24,240
Speaker 2: How will Republicans treat Democrats in California? And I think

1497
01:27:24,240 --> 01:27:27,200
Speaker 2: we should be a shining beacon of a constitutional, functioning

1498
01:27:27,240 --> 01:27:30,280
Speaker 2: democracy in California, not a hack job.

1499
01:27:37,840 --> 01:27:40,679
Speaker 1: I was one of those I didn't understand. I understood

1500
01:27:40,720 --> 01:27:45,120
Speaker 1: the political decision that California Democrats made, Okay, I understood

1501
01:27:45,120 --> 01:27:48,320
Speaker 1: the political argument. The problem I had is, if you

1502
01:27:48,400 --> 01:27:51,680
Speaker 1: believe voters are being disenfranchised in Texas, why is the

1503
01:27:51,760 --> 01:27:55,640
Speaker 1: answer to disenfranchised voters in another state? The principle of

1504
01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:58,439
Speaker 1: it sort of bothered me. And I understand that everything

1505
01:27:58,680 --> 01:28:02,360
Speaker 1: you know, fortunately too much of politics is a zero

1506
01:28:02,439 --> 01:28:05,200
Speaker 1: sum game to people, right, you know, so and so wins,

1507
01:28:05,240 --> 01:28:07,639
Speaker 1: then we lose, we lose, we win and they lose.

1508
01:28:07,720 --> 01:28:11,360
Speaker 1: And it's like, you know, the law of unattended consequences

1509
01:28:11,360 --> 01:28:13,599
Speaker 1: always bite you, always bite you in the you know where.

1510
01:28:13,640 --> 01:28:15,439
Speaker 2: But let me ask you a question, because you ask

1511
01:28:15,560 --> 01:28:17,519
Speaker 2: me why I'm not an independent, I want to answer

1512
01:28:17,520 --> 01:28:20,599
Speaker 2: the question directly because it's a really good question. There

1513
01:28:20,640 --> 01:28:24,280
Speaker 2: actually is an independent running named Ethan Penner who's a good,

1514
01:28:24,320 --> 01:28:28,840
Speaker 2: smart guy and got some interesting ideas. Just there's no

1515
01:28:28,920 --> 01:28:31,880
Speaker 2: independent party, Chuck, there's no independent.

1516
01:28:32,000 --> 01:28:34,960
Speaker 1: Party, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Look, the beauty of the top two.

1517
01:28:35,560 --> 01:28:37,720
Speaker 1: Let me answer, though, was to make it so you

1518
01:28:37,720 --> 01:28:39,000
Speaker 1: didn't have to join a party.

1519
01:28:39,160 --> 01:28:41,960
Speaker 2: Well, well, okay, but that's not the reality. I think.

1520
01:28:42,000 --> 01:28:44,960
Speaker 2: I think that people organize around parties still in America,

1521
01:28:45,000 --> 01:28:47,680
Speaker 2: and they organize around two parties, and I think it's

1522
01:28:47,760 --> 01:28:51,360
Speaker 2: a long way off before we have an independent party.

1523
01:28:51,360 --> 01:28:53,519
Speaker 2: In California or in the nation, and there's a lot

1524
01:28:53,520 --> 01:28:55,200
Speaker 2: of things that need to happen right to set the

1525
01:28:55,200 --> 01:28:56,680
Speaker 2: stage for that. We have a lot of things to

1526
01:28:56,680 --> 01:28:59,320
Speaker 2: sort out, Chuck, don't we and our body politic before

1527
01:28:59,360 --> 01:29:02,640
Speaker 2: that can happen. But for me, I'm an old school Republican.

1528
01:29:02,720 --> 01:29:06,559
Speaker 2: I describe myself more as a Reagan Republican, which is

1529
01:29:06,600 --> 01:29:09,800
Speaker 2: looking at government very skeptically and what is the role

1530
01:29:09,840 --> 01:29:12,760
Speaker 2: of government? What can government really be good at? Is

1531
01:29:12,800 --> 01:29:18,360
Speaker 2: an orientation around freedom and property rights. It's a respect

1532
01:29:18,439 --> 01:29:22,360
Speaker 2: for business being a prime engine of opportunity creation in society.

1533
01:29:23,240 --> 01:29:25,519
Speaker 2: It's those kinds of things. And I think if you

1534
01:29:25,600 --> 01:29:29,559
Speaker 2: look in California at where the better ideas are for

1535
01:29:29,640 --> 01:29:33,599
Speaker 2: turning the state around, it's more on the Republican side

1536
01:29:33,600 --> 01:29:36,080
Speaker 2: than the Democrat side. And again I'm not in this

1537
01:29:36,160 --> 01:29:40,400
Speaker 2: to bash Democrats. Most of my family are Democrats. They've

1538
01:29:40,400 --> 01:29:43,519
Speaker 2: all come out saying, John, how could you? How could

1539
01:29:43,560 --> 01:29:46,360
Speaker 2: you be a Republican? Trump? Trump? Trump? And what I

1540
01:29:46,439 --> 01:29:50,320
Speaker 2: tell them is put Trump aside. California's problems are not

1541
01:29:50,520 --> 01:29:53,840
Speaker 2: because of Trump. This is an own goal in California.

1542
01:29:53,960 --> 01:29:57,080
Speaker 2: So I'm a Republican really based on policy and philosophy.

1543
01:29:57,640 --> 01:30:00,439
Speaker 1: Let's talk about though, the result of Prop fifty. I

1544
01:30:00,640 --> 01:30:02,639
Speaker 1: actually didn't think it was going to be the blowout

1545
01:30:02,720 --> 01:30:04,960
Speaker 1: at first, right, and then you saw I said, oh boy,

1546
01:30:05,000 --> 01:30:07,639
Speaker 1: this turned into a Trump referendum, right. And the minute

1547
01:30:07,640 --> 01:30:09,519
Speaker 1: it turned into a Trump referendum, it was over.

1548
01:30:09,840 --> 01:30:10,160
Speaker 2: Sure.

1549
01:30:12,840 --> 01:30:15,320
Speaker 1: I'm just look, I'm just being honest with you. Campaign

1550
01:30:15,400 --> 01:30:18,720
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in a blue state. You know, I

1551
01:30:18,720 --> 01:30:22,640
Speaker 1: don't see the path for any I say this. I

1552
01:30:22,680 --> 01:30:25,719
Speaker 1: don't know how a Republican wins statewide in this political

1553
01:30:25,760 --> 01:30:27,679
Speaker 1: environment with Donald Trump and the White House.

1554
01:30:27,920 --> 01:30:32,320
Speaker 2: Why am I wrong? Well, we'll see. I understand that skepticism.

1555
01:30:32,479 --> 01:30:35,040
Speaker 2: I think it's it's warranted, to be honest, And the

1556
01:30:35,120 --> 01:30:38,479
Speaker 2: truth is that the Republican Party in California historically, in

1557
01:30:38,520 --> 01:30:42,320
Speaker 2: the recent history, has not done itself the favors, you know,

1558
01:30:42,400 --> 01:30:47,120
Speaker 2: running on certain cultural issues versus running on policy, running

1559
01:30:47,120 --> 01:30:47,320
Speaker 2: by the.

1560
01:30:47,720 --> 01:30:51,280
Speaker 1: Identity crisis, right like Arnold Schwarzenegger is the most successful

1561
01:30:51,320 --> 01:30:55,559
Speaker 1: Republican governor arguably since Ronald Reagan. And good luck finding

1562
01:30:55,560 --> 01:30:58,280
Speaker 1: a Republican that wants to emulate Arnold Swarzenegger these days.

1563
01:30:58,360 --> 01:31:00,680
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, because people have gone to their corners and

1564
01:31:00,800 --> 01:31:03,360
Speaker 2: to be honest. Though I love Arnold, I mean I

1565
01:31:03,400 --> 01:31:05,840
Speaker 2: love him as a guy and man, but there's certain

1566
01:31:05,880 --> 01:31:08,840
Speaker 2: policies that have led us in the wrong direction. I

1567
01:31:08,880 --> 01:31:12,479
Speaker 2: mentioned the climate regime is his policy, right, Well, he's

1568
01:31:12,520 --> 01:31:14,559
Speaker 2: the one who you know. I think he figured out

1569
01:31:14,600 --> 01:31:17,200
Speaker 2: early on he wanted to be known as a climate governor.

1570
01:31:17,960 --> 01:31:20,400
Speaker 2: And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. We

1571
01:31:20,520 --> 01:31:22,920
Speaker 2: have the best environmental laws on the books of any state.

1572
01:31:22,920 --> 01:31:25,720
Speaker 2: We should enforce them. The environmental movement started here in

1573
01:31:25,760 --> 01:31:27,840
Speaker 2: the seventies. That was a good thing. The problem is

1574
01:31:27,880 --> 01:31:32,479
Speaker 2: it was perverted and hijacked in law to facto to

1575
01:31:32,520 --> 01:31:34,599
Speaker 2: block a lot of good things, a lot of growth

1576
01:31:34,640 --> 01:31:38,960
Speaker 2: and housing and energy production that we need while we

1577
01:31:39,040 --> 01:31:41,120
Speaker 2: figure out how to protect the environment. So I think

1578
01:31:41,160 --> 01:31:44,639
Speaker 2: it kind of got perverted unintentionally. But you ask, how

1579
01:31:44,640 --> 01:31:51,240
Speaker 2: do you win? You know, they're credible polls Chuck from

1580
01:31:51,400 --> 01:31:54,160
Speaker 2: from mid to late last year that showed that half

1581
01:31:54,160 --> 01:31:55,920
Speaker 2: of the state would vote for the right kind of

1582
01:31:55,920 --> 01:31:57,960
Speaker 2: Republican I believe.

1583
01:31:58,000 --> 01:32:00,479
Speaker 1: And people always say it's that I could always get

1584
01:32:00,560 --> 01:32:03,280
Speaker 1: you that poll result because people want to always want

1585
01:32:03,320 --> 01:32:05,760
Speaker 1: to come across as reasonable, but you know, they do

1586
01:32:05,880 --> 01:32:08,439
Speaker 1: end up voting the same way that they vote seventy

1587
01:32:08,479 --> 01:32:09,280
Speaker 1: five percent of the time.

1588
01:32:12,200 --> 01:32:15,320
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see. I think in California it's darkest before

1589
01:32:15,320 --> 01:32:18,439
Speaker 2: the dawn. I think that if you my grammar research,

1590
01:32:18,479 --> 01:32:21,519
Speaker 2: we had lots of polling. The grammar research is so

1591
01:32:21,640 --> 01:32:25,600
Speaker 2: much frustration, so much disaffection. Yeah, And I think the

1592
01:32:25,600 --> 01:32:27,960
Speaker 2: way this is going to game out on the left

1593
01:32:28,040 --> 01:32:30,920
Speaker 2: or on the Democratic side, I really think the energy

1594
01:32:31,720 --> 01:32:35,120
Speaker 2: is more further left. I think it's more in the

1595
01:32:35,160 --> 01:32:39,719
Speaker 2: Katie Porter wing than others. Right, And there's different characters,

1596
01:32:39,840 --> 01:32:40,040
Speaker 2: and I.

1597
01:32:40,040 --> 01:32:41,880
Speaker 1: Don't know where you go. I mean, it's funny you

1598
01:32:41,880 --> 01:32:44,000
Speaker 1: bring that up. If Rick Caruso gets in this race,

1599
01:32:44,280 --> 01:32:46,080
Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people assume we're Caruso

1600
01:32:46,120 --> 01:32:49,400
Speaker 1: is getting in this race. He's the former Republican now

1601
01:32:49,479 --> 01:32:51,680
Speaker 1: running as a Democrat. Yeah.

1602
01:32:51,720 --> 01:32:55,639
Speaker 2: Well so he's a very successful guy. Love his real

1603
01:32:55,720 --> 01:33:00,599
Speaker 2: estate projects as a consumer. But Chuck, that game has

1604
01:33:00,640 --> 01:33:05,160
Speaker 2: been played in California before we had we had, you know,

1605
01:33:05,240 --> 01:33:10,480
Speaker 2: someone named Whitman, we had someone named Huffington. We've had billionaires.

1606
01:33:10,760 --> 01:33:13,280
Speaker 2: That's not me. I mean I get up early in

1607
01:33:13,320 --> 01:33:15,519
Speaker 2: the morning and I change diapers, and I do dishes,

1608
01:33:15,560 --> 01:33:18,240
Speaker 2: and I drive kids to school. And yes, I've been successful,

1609
01:33:18,240 --> 01:33:21,000
Speaker 2: but I live in a nice neighborhood in a fairly

1610
01:33:21,040 --> 01:33:25,479
Speaker 2: regular house, and I'm not that guy. I'm I'm in

1611
01:33:25,560 --> 01:33:31,160
Speaker 2: the world, Okay. I don't think a billionaire buys his

1612
01:33:31,280 --> 01:33:33,599
Speaker 2: or her way into the election in California. I don't

1613
01:33:33,600 --> 01:33:36,479
Speaker 2: think that's the California style, the California way.

1614
01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:38,320
Speaker 1: It worked, asked Alceecki.

1615
01:33:39,040 --> 01:33:43,840
Speaker 2: And there's Alcheckie. Yeah, there's Alcheckie, who was actually a

1616
01:33:43,880 --> 01:33:46,200
Speaker 2: friend of my dad's, funny enough, way back in the day.

1617
01:33:46,680 --> 01:33:46,880
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1618
01:33:46,960 --> 01:33:49,439
Speaker 2: But here's the thing I think that I think to

1619
01:33:49,479 --> 01:33:51,559
Speaker 2: your point, if you look at the Emerson polls, which

1620
01:33:51,600 --> 01:33:55,880
Speaker 2: are most often quoted and cited in California, last one

1621
01:33:55,920 --> 01:33:58,679
Speaker 2: showed thirty one percent undecided, the one before that forty

1622
01:33:58,680 --> 01:34:02,800
Speaker 2: four percent undecided. It's wide open. It's completely wide open,

1623
01:34:02,880 --> 01:34:05,800
Speaker 2: and I think people want something different. A lot of

1624
01:34:05,800 --> 01:34:10,920
Speaker 2: the Democrats are how dold I put this politely, been

1625
01:34:10,960 --> 01:34:12,360
Speaker 2: in politics a long time.

1626
01:34:12,360 --> 01:34:13,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, careers, Yeah, no, no, no.

1627
01:34:14,240 --> 01:34:18,000
Speaker 2: And the two Republicans who were running. I like them

1628
01:34:18,000 --> 01:34:20,519
Speaker 2: both as men. I like Steve and I like Chad.

1629
01:34:20,560 --> 01:34:22,400
Speaker 2: I've had them on my podcast, spen all the time

1630
01:34:22,439 --> 01:34:24,280
Speaker 2: with them. They're good men. I don't think either has

1631
01:34:24,320 --> 01:34:26,160
Speaker 2: the right background to turn the state around.

1632
01:34:28,000 --> 01:34:34,800
Speaker 1: I want to close with Silicon Valley, and it goes

1633
01:34:34,840 --> 01:34:37,040
Speaker 1: to what I think is going to be a struggle

1634
01:34:37,080 --> 01:34:39,679
Speaker 1: for you if you win, which is, on one hand,

1635
01:34:39,720 --> 01:34:41,519
Speaker 1: I think you want to make it easier to do

1636
01:34:41,560 --> 01:34:45,240
Speaker 1: business in California. On the other hand, I think there's

1637
01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:50,120
Speaker 1: a lot of people who think the tech companies have

1638
01:34:50,200 --> 01:34:56,120
Speaker 1: too much free reign right and that actually, you know,

1639
01:34:56,200 --> 01:34:58,560
Speaker 1: while generally there might be too much red tape for

1640
01:34:58,600 --> 01:35:02,120
Speaker 1: the average person starting a smaller, mid size business, I

1641
01:35:02,160 --> 01:35:05,720
Speaker 1: could argue there's not enough red tape and enough guardrails

1642
01:35:05,720 --> 01:35:08,599
Speaker 1: with Silicon Valley, given look at what social media did

1643
01:35:08,640 --> 01:35:12,439
Speaker 1: to society and now there's very few guardrails on AI.

1644
01:35:15,400 --> 01:35:18,280
Speaker 1: I struggle with this because I want to see advancement

1645
01:35:19,280 --> 01:35:21,679
Speaker 1: and I also see, well, you can't trust them without

1646
01:35:21,720 --> 01:35:25,000
Speaker 1: some sort of minder there. Where are you on you

1647
01:35:25,080 --> 01:35:27,000
Speaker 1: think Silicon Valley has been regulated enough?

1648
01:35:29,160 --> 01:35:33,760
Speaker 2: Well, I think that California.

1649
01:35:33,360 --> 01:35:35,639
Speaker 1: Gave away my bias there on that one. I did,

1650
01:35:35,880 --> 01:35:38,080
Speaker 1: and it's part of it is to sort of spark

1651
01:35:38,120 --> 01:35:41,280
Speaker 1: a conversation for what it's worth. But it is and

1652
01:35:41,360 --> 01:35:43,479
Speaker 1: I think I'm not alone here, right There's people that

1653
01:35:43,560 --> 01:35:46,240
Speaker 1: think there's too much regulation and big tech has too

1654
01:35:46,320 --> 01:35:46,799
Speaker 1: much power.

1655
01:35:47,800 --> 01:35:51,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, big tech is also a huge driver for innovation, employment,

1656
01:35:52,120 --> 01:35:55,880
Speaker 2: wealth building, and God help us, we need to keep

1657
01:35:55,920 --> 01:35:59,280
Speaker 2: that in California. There's a lot of movement outside of California.

1658
01:35:59,360 --> 01:36:02,880
Speaker 2: You can listen. You can run a tech company from

1659
01:36:02,880 --> 01:36:05,839
Speaker 2: anywhere in the world. You can run it from the mountains,

1660
01:36:05,880 --> 01:36:07,960
Speaker 2: you can run it from the beach, you can run

1661
01:36:08,000 --> 01:36:12,639
Speaker 2: it from anywhere. So California needs to remain the most

1662
01:36:12,800 --> 01:36:16,600
Speaker 2: welcoming and the most positive place for tech companies of

1663
01:36:16,640 --> 01:36:19,040
Speaker 2: all sizes to want to do business. If you look

1664
01:36:19,080 --> 01:36:22,639
Speaker 2: at the AI business, Chuck, one of the singular reasons

1665
01:36:22,640 --> 01:36:25,879
Speaker 2: that Dan Lurie has been able to tell a comeback

1666
01:36:25,920 --> 01:36:29,080
Speaker 2: story in San Francisco is because of AI, because of

1667
01:36:29,120 --> 01:36:31,559
Speaker 2: the employment, because of the leases that have been signed

1668
01:36:31,560 --> 01:36:35,200
Speaker 2: in downtown, to bring human beings back into the city

1669
01:36:35,240 --> 01:36:37,600
Speaker 2: to actually be a part of the tax base. So

1670
01:36:38,280 --> 01:36:41,720
Speaker 2: God bless AI and God bless the tech industry. California

1671
01:36:41,760 --> 01:36:45,400
Speaker 2: has passed AI legislation. California has been one of the

1672
01:36:45,439 --> 01:36:49,320
Speaker 2: states to pioneer passing legislation that provides some guardrails to

1673
01:36:49,360 --> 01:36:51,799
Speaker 2: AI that the rest of the nation is actually modeling.

1674
01:36:52,160 --> 01:36:55,080
Speaker 2: Of course, Trump now is threatening to have federal legislation

1675
01:36:55,200 --> 01:36:58,120
Speaker 2: that stomps down all of this regulation. We've got to

1676
01:36:58,160 --> 01:37:02,000
Speaker 2: find a happy medium. I do think they're legitimate concerns

1677
01:37:02,160 --> 01:37:06,920
Speaker 2: on you know, for human beings and for kids about

1678
01:37:06,920 --> 01:37:10,720
Speaker 2: technology and AI. But here's where I generally rest, Chuck.

1679
01:37:11,120 --> 01:37:13,960
Speaker 2: And I'll use the analogy of the Big Gulp in Bloomberg.

1680
01:37:14,120 --> 01:37:16,320
Speaker 2: You remember the Yeah, you remember that.

1681
01:37:17,240 --> 01:37:20,160
Speaker 1: I allow that it's the Trump Health secretary that seems

1682
01:37:20,200 --> 01:37:22,479
Speaker 1: to be anti big Gulp these days. I mean, I'm

1683
01:37:22,560 --> 01:37:24,400
Speaker 1: sort of like left his right right.

1684
01:37:24,760 --> 01:37:26,720
Speaker 2: And I love that part. I love that part of

1685
01:37:26,800 --> 01:37:30,960
Speaker 2: rfk's agenda. I love getting rid of the red dye

1686
01:37:31,040 --> 01:37:33,839
Speaker 2: number eight, and I love copying more of what Europe

1687
01:37:33,840 --> 01:37:35,519
Speaker 2: does in a good way when it comes to our

1688
01:37:35,840 --> 01:37:40,559
Speaker 2: supply chain for food. I also believe in science, okay,

1689
01:37:40,640 --> 01:37:44,560
Speaker 2: and and and and and you know, in the right vaccine.

1690
01:37:44,640 --> 01:37:47,960
Speaker 2: So so I think there's a balanced Chuck. But I

1691
01:37:48,000 --> 01:37:51,280
Speaker 2: am I am an anti nanny state guy. I do

1692
01:37:51,400 --> 01:37:56,120
Speaker 2: not believe that the government should be telling the private

1693
01:37:56,160 --> 01:37:59,439
Speaker 2: sector and individual people how to do what they do.

1694
01:37:59,520 --> 01:38:03,880
Speaker 2: In general, but yes, some basic guardrails, So.

1695
01:38:04,080 --> 01:38:06,000
Speaker 1: Let me I'm just let me throwing out there banning

1696
01:38:06,040 --> 01:38:08,360
Speaker 1: social media for under sixteen year olds? Would you sign

1697
01:38:08,360 --> 01:38:09,000
Speaker 1: that legislation?

1698
01:38:10,080 --> 01:38:14,280
Speaker 2: Well, listen, Australia did it. I think it's a joke

1699
01:38:14,479 --> 01:38:18,639
Speaker 2: because there are so many workarounds to get around that life.

1700
01:38:18,680 --> 01:38:21,360
Speaker 2: So I think, to facto it's a joke. You can

1701
01:38:21,479 --> 01:38:23,839
Speaker 2: waive that kind of law round say you're doing something.

1702
01:38:24,439 --> 01:38:26,360
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, Chuck, It comes down

1703
01:38:26,400 --> 01:38:30,360
Speaker 2: to are parents involved in their kids' lives. So, for instance,

1704
01:38:31,600 --> 01:38:36,240
Speaker 2: my kids didn't have phones until they were thirteen, and

1705
01:38:36,280 --> 01:38:38,040
Speaker 2: the reason they got it is because they were taking

1706
01:38:38,040 --> 01:38:41,120
Speaker 2: the train to school and needed a way to communicate. Okay,

1707
01:38:41,560 --> 01:38:44,559
Speaker 2: they but all their friends had phones starting at god

1708
01:38:44,600 --> 01:38:47,760
Speaker 2: knows what it. So I think parents need to get

1709
01:38:47,840 --> 01:38:51,599
Speaker 2: involved with their kids and parent them and that's really

1710
01:38:51,920 --> 01:38:54,680
Speaker 2: where we should we should focus, as opposed to the

1711
01:38:54,720 --> 01:38:57,960
Speaker 2: government telling parents or children when to have technology.

1712
01:38:58,360 --> 01:39:00,479
Speaker 1: Well, I hear you there, but we did put age

1713
01:39:00,560 --> 01:39:04,240
Speaker 1: limit on smoking and if we've decided this is bad,

1714
01:39:04,720 --> 01:39:08,879
Speaker 1: we think this is bad for mental health of young brains,

1715
01:39:09,439 --> 01:39:13,880
Speaker 1: and so it is. Is there any movement for you?

1716
01:39:14,160 --> 01:39:19,000
Speaker 2: But again, here's the thing. These A pack of cigarettes, okay,

1717
01:39:19,360 --> 01:39:22,880
Speaker 2: is readily accessible for any kid who can get someone

1718
01:39:22,920 --> 01:39:25,479
Speaker 2: to sneak it and buy it and whatever number of bucks.

1719
01:39:25,520 --> 01:39:27,360
Speaker 2: I don't buy cigarettes. I'm not sure what they cost

1720
01:39:27,400 --> 01:39:31,200
Speaker 2: per pack these days. A piece of technology that we're

1721
01:39:31,200 --> 01:39:34,000
Speaker 2: talking about, an Apple watch or a phone, is a

1722
01:39:34,080 --> 01:39:37,480
Speaker 2: considered purchase for the vast majority of people in California.

1723
01:39:38,120 --> 01:39:40,360
Speaker 2: So it's not like kids are running around at a

1724
01:39:40,400 --> 01:39:43,360
Speaker 2: young age buying these technologies and putting them in their

1725
01:39:43,400 --> 01:39:45,240
Speaker 2: palm or on their wrists. So I really think it

1726
01:39:45,240 --> 01:39:48,280
Speaker 2: comes down to parents being smart and involved.

1727
01:39:48,600 --> 01:39:50,120
Speaker 1: Would you ban them in public schools?

1728
01:39:52,000 --> 01:39:56,640
Speaker 2: Well, I think I don't believe in universal bands like this.

1729
01:39:56,840 --> 01:39:58,960
Speaker 2: I think it's a good idea, though. What certain school

1730
01:39:58,960 --> 01:40:01,919
Speaker 2: districts have started to do always say that you cannot

1731
01:40:01,960 --> 01:40:07,000
Speaker 2: have your phone, uh, you know, in your hand or

1732
01:40:07,560 --> 01:40:07,760
Speaker 2: you know.

1733
01:40:07,960 --> 01:40:10,400
Speaker 1: In my kid's school had pouches at the beginning of

1734
01:40:10,400 --> 01:40:12,759
Speaker 1: the class, and you put your phone in your pouch

1735
01:40:12,800 --> 01:40:16,200
Speaker 1: and you weren't until you know, and then you sat down.

1736
01:40:16,080 --> 01:40:18,479
Speaker 2: Right, It's like it's like it's what government officials do

1737
01:40:18,520 --> 01:40:19,840
Speaker 2: if they go into a secure site.

1738
01:40:19,880 --> 01:40:20,960
Speaker 1: So skiff exactly.

1739
01:40:21,040 --> 01:40:23,479
Speaker 2: I think these kinds of ideas are good. I think

1740
01:40:23,560 --> 01:40:27,559
Speaker 2: they they should be locally determined. I don't believe in

1741
01:40:27,600 --> 01:40:32,880
Speaker 2: the state of California, imposing things like that on school

1742
01:40:32,920 --> 01:40:35,000
Speaker 2: districts or kids or parents.

1743
01:40:35,720 --> 01:40:37,240
Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here on this. There's

1744
01:40:37,240 --> 01:40:38,679
Speaker 1: a wealth tax coming on the ballot.

1745
01:40:38,760 --> 01:40:41,000
Speaker 2: Huh, there certainly is.

1746
01:40:41,280 --> 01:40:44,800
Speaker 1: I imagine it. I know where you stand on this.

1747
01:40:48,120 --> 01:40:51,200
Speaker 1: It's probably going to be popular. So how do you

1748
01:40:51,240 --> 01:40:53,080
Speaker 1: convince somebody who says, yeah, but you know what, you

1749
01:40:53,080 --> 01:40:55,440
Speaker 1: don't pay enough taxes. You guys have all the loopholes

1750
01:40:55,439 --> 01:40:58,080
Speaker 1: you have this or that. It's it's tough being a

1751
01:40:58,120 --> 01:41:00,760
Speaker 1: defender of the quote wealthy on this right, we know

1752
01:41:01,040 --> 01:41:04,080
Speaker 1: the pitchforks have been sharpened, and the pitchforks are in

1753
01:41:04,120 --> 01:41:06,040
Speaker 1: both parties you and have. I mean, this is not

1754
01:41:06,160 --> 01:41:09,960
Speaker 1: a just on the left thing. This is this is

1755
01:41:10,000 --> 01:41:12,559
Speaker 1: the most interesting divide in America I think is this

1756
01:41:13,160 --> 01:41:15,719
Speaker 1: Is this a bit of the on the socioeconomic front.

1757
01:41:16,640 --> 01:41:18,920
Speaker 1: Make the case to a working class person that the

1758
01:41:18,920 --> 01:41:20,320
Speaker 1: wealth tax is a bad idea.

1759
01:41:20,760 --> 01:41:26,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm against all new taxes, and in California, including this, this,

1760
01:41:26,080 --> 01:41:30,120
Speaker 2: this billionaire tax in California, which I know this happens

1761
01:41:30,120 --> 01:41:33,200
Speaker 2: in other states. Shock there is a hidden system of

1762
01:41:33,240 --> 01:41:38,000
Speaker 2: what are called special funds. So a county or the

1763
01:41:38,040 --> 01:41:42,479
Speaker 2: state will say, hey, we have a huge need, for example,

1764
01:41:42,840 --> 01:41:46,559
Speaker 2: a big beautiful bill cut healthcare spending. We want to

1765
01:41:46,600 --> 01:41:49,880
Speaker 2: initiate a new tax, a sales tax. It's a tenth

1766
01:41:49,920 --> 01:41:52,200
Speaker 2: of a percent. You're not going to notice it. It's

1767
01:41:52,240 --> 01:41:56,320
Speaker 2: going to it's gonna accrue the county five hundred million

1768
01:41:56,360 --> 01:41:58,560
Speaker 2: dollars over the next four years, and we're going to

1769
01:41:58,680 --> 01:42:01,880
Speaker 2: use that money to pay for healthcare. What happens that

1770
01:42:02,040 --> 01:42:06,080
Speaker 2: money is raised and it is shifted into the general

1771
01:42:06,120 --> 01:42:08,120
Speaker 2: fund of the county or the state to be spent

1772
01:42:08,200 --> 01:42:11,880
Speaker 2: on anything. Chuck, This is the bait and switch that

1773
01:42:11,920 --> 01:42:15,800
Speaker 2: happens with taxpayers, and we're already over taxed. This is

1774
01:42:16,000 --> 01:42:20,639
Speaker 2: like a slippery slope. It's lots of other ideas of

1775
01:42:20,680 --> 01:42:23,519
Speaker 2: taking more money from taxpayers, giving it to government to

1776
01:42:23,560 --> 01:42:28,479
Speaker 2: spend on dumb shit or stuff that doesn't work. That's

1777
01:42:28,640 --> 01:42:29,240
Speaker 2: my argument.

1778
01:42:31,560 --> 01:42:33,080
Speaker 1: If you get elected, you know you're going to be

1779
01:42:33,120 --> 01:42:37,720
Speaker 1: dealing with the Democratic legislature, perhaps a supermajority. But then again,

1780
01:42:37,760 --> 01:42:39,960
Speaker 1: if you get elected, I probably mean so, it wouldn't

1781
01:42:40,000 --> 01:42:43,360
Speaker 1: a super majority. I think this is assuming you make

1782
01:42:43,400 --> 01:42:48,400
Speaker 1: it into the top two. It's tough to be bipartisan

1783
01:42:48,439 --> 01:42:49,559
Speaker 1: these days. How would you do it.

1784
01:42:50,439 --> 01:42:54,200
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I'll give a quick anecdote from Willie Brown,

1785
01:42:54,320 --> 01:42:57,719
Speaker 2: who I sat down with from my podcast last July.

1786
01:42:57,960 --> 01:42:59,559
Speaker 2: This is prior to commodigetting out.

1787
01:42:59,439 --> 01:43:02,280
Speaker 1: Out of Grade's nobody more fun to talk to. I

1788
01:43:02,280 --> 01:43:04,320
Speaker 1: think he's all the five. I think he's one of

1789
01:43:04,360 --> 01:43:10,680
Speaker 1: the five most accomplished politicians in the twentieth century. I mean,

1790
01:43:10,680 --> 01:43:12,960
Speaker 1: maybe right. The fact that he stayed Speaker of the

1791
01:43:12,960 --> 01:43:16,320
Speaker 1: House with the party change. Tell me another leader that

1792
01:43:16,360 --> 01:43:17,320
Speaker 1: could pull that off. Well.

1793
01:43:17,360 --> 01:43:20,040
Speaker 2: Actually, he told the story that when he was elected Speaker,

1794
01:43:20,200 --> 01:43:23,479
Speaker 2: more Republicans voted him in than Democrats, which you may

1795
01:43:23,479 --> 01:43:25,280
Speaker 2: know because you're such a student of politics.

1796
01:43:25,760 --> 01:43:27,600
Speaker 1: Such a great story. A movie should be made about it.

1797
01:43:27,640 --> 01:43:30,040
Speaker 2: But anyways, it's a great story. And there are plenty

1798
01:43:30,080 --> 01:43:32,599
Speaker 2: of areas of disagreement I might have with Willie Brown

1799
01:43:34,960 --> 01:43:38,679
Speaker 2: down in policies in California. But I asked him, what's

1800
01:43:38,720 --> 01:43:45,040
Speaker 2: the biggest lesson you learned when you were a mayor

1801
01:43:45,200 --> 01:43:48,439
Speaker 2: or the speaker? And he tugged his ear and he said,

1802
01:43:48,680 --> 01:43:52,040
Speaker 2: I listened, and he said, I was just as likely

1803
01:43:52,080 --> 01:43:54,439
Speaker 2: to have dinner into Larry, which is, you know, farm

1804
01:43:54,479 --> 01:43:57,320
Speaker 2: country here in California as I was San Francisco. I

1805
01:43:57,400 --> 01:44:00,120
Speaker 2: spent time with people. I formed relationships with people, and

1806
01:44:00,160 --> 01:44:04,759
Speaker 2: I cut deals with people. And to quote Jerry Brown,

1807
01:44:05,360 --> 01:44:07,679
Speaker 2: who I have plenty of policy disagreements with, he said,

1808
01:44:07,680 --> 01:44:09,360
Speaker 2: you know, if you want to make a Canu goo straight,

1809
01:44:09,479 --> 01:44:11,679
Speaker 2: sometimes you paddle on the left and sometimes you paddle

1810
01:44:11,720 --> 01:44:14,720
Speaker 2: on the right. Okay, I'm quoting two Democrats. What I

1811
01:44:14,760 --> 01:44:18,479
Speaker 2: would say is that you got to be practical. You

1812
01:44:18,600 --> 01:44:21,799
Speaker 2: got to cut deals. But sometimes you stand on principle.

1813
01:44:21,840 --> 01:44:25,040
Speaker 2: Sometimes you use executive order, sometimes you use the bully pulpit.

1814
01:44:25,120 --> 01:44:27,840
Speaker 2: Sometimes you negotiate. But we got to do it together, Chuck,

1815
01:44:27,880 --> 01:44:28,800
Speaker 2: there's only one way.

1816
01:44:29,640 --> 01:44:31,160
Speaker 1: Well, I think we're all trying to figure out if

1817
01:44:31,160 --> 01:44:36,360
Speaker 1: pragmatism isn't it is allowed anymore in our politics. Can't

1818
01:44:36,760 --> 01:44:39,479
Speaker 1: say that it gets punished by the political basis, that's

1819
01:44:39,520 --> 01:44:41,320
Speaker 1: for sure. Hey, John, it's good to get to know you.

1820
01:44:41,360 --> 01:44:42,760
Speaker 2: I appreciate Thank you very much, Chuck.

1821
01:44:51,000 --> 01:44:53,040
Speaker 1: All right, I hope you enjoyed that conversation. And is

1822
01:44:53,800 --> 01:44:55,120
Speaker 1: just so you know, I think I'm going to have

1823
01:44:55,200 --> 01:44:59,040
Speaker 1: Eric Swawell on UH fairly soon and we'll talk there.

1824
01:44:59,040 --> 01:45:00,400
Speaker 1: And I have a feeling that's going to be new

1825
01:45:00,400 --> 01:45:05,000
Speaker 1: candidates chopping in this race more than you may realize

1826
01:45:05,040 --> 01:45:09,160
Speaker 1: coming forward this there's still something about this California gubernatorial race.

1827
01:45:09,680 --> 01:45:14,200
Speaker 1: And I'm going to say something that that that a

1828
01:45:14,400 --> 01:45:17,720
Speaker 1: version of me might have called myself lazy in saying this,

1829
01:45:17,840 --> 01:45:20,880
Speaker 1: but I believe it too. There's a lack of star

1830
01:45:21,000 --> 01:45:24,600
Speaker 1: power in this governor's race right now. Uh, no disrespect

1831
01:45:24,640 --> 01:45:28,680
Speaker 1: to Swallwell, to mister Slavitt, to to mister Hilton on

1832
01:45:28,720 --> 01:45:33,559
Speaker 1: the right, or or or Katie Porter, but you just

1833
01:45:33,680 --> 01:45:39,160
Speaker 1: sort of like, is there you know, after eight years

1834
01:45:39,160 --> 01:45:42,320
Speaker 1: of Jerry Brown and eight years at Gavin Newsome, and

1835
01:45:42,439 --> 01:45:45,360
Speaker 1: before that it was five years of Arnold Swarzenegger, these

1836
01:45:45,360 --> 01:45:49,360
Speaker 1: are large, These became larger than life political figures. You know,

1837
01:45:50,680 --> 01:45:53,160
Speaker 1: is anybody in this group ready to fill that suit,

1838
01:45:53,400 --> 01:45:57,479
Speaker 1: right or whatever you want to call it? So I'm

1839
01:45:57,560 --> 01:46:02,479
Speaker 1: convinced there are more more shoes, more candidate shoes to drop.

1840
01:46:02,680 --> 01:46:05,639
Speaker 1: That filing deadline still a couple months away, so we've

1841
01:46:05,640 --> 01:46:08,439
Speaker 1: got plenty of time. All right, It is Wednesday, which

1842
01:46:08,479 --> 01:46:13,639
Speaker 1: means I'm bringing back the top five lists to top five,

1843
01:46:13,920 --> 01:46:20,439
Speaker 1: top to I promise most of my top five lists

1844
01:46:20,439 --> 01:46:23,719
Speaker 1: are going to be you know, sometimes there'll be politically related,

1845
01:46:23,760 --> 01:46:27,439
Speaker 1: top five senatec pickups, maybe top five states that could

1846
01:46:27,479 --> 01:46:30,240
Speaker 1: flip on governor's races, and I'll do all of that,

1847
01:46:30,400 --> 01:46:33,400
Speaker 1: and that's coming up, and I'll start back in on

1848
01:46:33,439 --> 01:46:37,439
Speaker 1: that in the next couple of weeks. But man, I

1849
01:46:37,600 --> 01:46:42,080
Speaker 1: got I got orange and green fever, all right. I

1850
01:46:42,160 --> 01:46:44,880
Speaker 1: am all about the U right now. I am all

1851
01:46:44,920 --> 01:46:47,360
Speaker 1: about the Hurricanes. You know, those of you that know

1852
01:46:47,479 --> 01:46:52,880
Speaker 1: me know college football is level of importance in my

1853
01:46:52,960 --> 01:46:57,080
Speaker 1: life is way too by. Okay, it's probably a borderline sickness.

1854
01:46:57,600 --> 01:47:02,120
Speaker 1: I fully, I fully do that. So but I feel

1855
01:47:02,200 --> 01:47:05,240
Speaker 1: like I have one more opportunity to be totally a

1856
01:47:05,360 --> 01:47:09,519
Speaker 1: Cane's homer here, use my top five lists to talk

1857
01:47:09,560 --> 01:47:12,639
Speaker 1: about something that's quite important to people that care about

1858
01:47:12,720 --> 01:47:14,920
Speaker 1: Miami Hurricanes football. And I'd like to think this should

1859
01:47:14,960 --> 01:47:17,400
Speaker 1: matter a little bit to even folks care about college football,

1860
01:47:17,560 --> 01:47:20,519
Speaker 1: and that is where does this Miami team should they

1861
01:47:20,520 --> 01:47:25,360
Speaker 1: win the national title and upset Indiana. And apparently everybody

1862
01:47:25,439 --> 01:47:27,519
Speaker 1: thinks Indiana is going to win and win big? Is

1863
01:47:27,560 --> 01:47:33,000
Speaker 1: that is the pointspread keeps going up. Apparently nobody is

1864
01:47:33,200 --> 01:47:36,120
Speaker 1: using their own eyes to see how the Miami Hurricanes

1865
01:47:36,120 --> 01:47:40,920
Speaker 1: football team has performed but I understand the you know,

1866
01:47:41,000 --> 01:47:44,120
Speaker 1: those that think Indian is gonna blow out Miami probably

1867
01:47:44,160 --> 01:47:49,040
Speaker 1: thought Oregon and Alabama were national title contenders. Memo to South,

1868
01:47:49,400 --> 01:47:52,200
Speaker 1: I never thought they were national title contenders. But I digress.

1869
01:47:53,120 --> 01:47:56,160
Speaker 1: So where would this twenty twenty five team fit Because

1870
01:47:56,160 --> 01:47:58,479
Speaker 1: if this team wins a national title, they will do

1871
01:47:58,560 --> 01:48:01,479
Speaker 1: something that a Miami Hurricane national title team has never done,

1872
01:48:01,920 --> 01:48:05,879
Speaker 1: that have won a national title with two losses. Miami

1873
01:48:05,880 --> 01:48:08,519
Speaker 1: has had five national titles, famously, three of them were

1874
01:48:08,600 --> 01:48:14,439
Speaker 1: undefeated seasons, two of them were one loss seasons, and

1875
01:48:14,880 --> 01:48:18,759
Speaker 1: it is so it is it is one of those

1876
01:48:18,840 --> 01:48:23,160
Speaker 1: that it's unusual for them to do two. Of course,

1877
01:48:23,200 --> 01:48:25,280
Speaker 1: in this playoff format, this is now going to become

1878
01:48:25,439 --> 01:48:29,120
Speaker 1: probably more common, not less common. We will have more

1879
01:48:29,160 --> 01:48:34,559
Speaker 1: and more two loss champions. Question is how many? You

1880
01:48:34,560 --> 01:48:36,120
Speaker 1: know how many over time? But I think you're going

1881
01:48:36,200 --> 01:48:38,799
Speaker 1: to see probably half this field will be one los

1882
01:48:38,840 --> 01:48:41,080
Speaker 1: you know, half of them will be undefeated, sir one

1883
01:48:41,120 --> 01:48:43,919
Speaker 1: loss ers, probably a lot more one lossers than undefeated,

1884
01:48:44,000 --> 01:48:46,720
Speaker 1: and about half the field will be two losses. If

1885
01:48:46,760 --> 01:48:48,439
Speaker 1: it gets to twenty four, we'll have some three loss

1886
01:48:48,479 --> 01:48:50,439
Speaker 1: teams sneak in there. But I'm not sure three loss

1887
01:48:50,479 --> 01:48:53,680
Speaker 1: teams will ever make it into the national title. So

1888
01:48:53,720 --> 01:48:56,040
Speaker 1: where do you rank them? Right? Look, the number one

1889
01:48:57,120 --> 01:48:59,960
Speaker 1: all time Miami Hurricanes national title team is the one

1890
01:49:00,280 --> 01:49:03,439
Speaker 1: that many considered the greatest college football team of all time,

1891
01:49:04,160 --> 01:49:06,080
Speaker 1: and that is the two thousand and one Miami Hurricanes.

1892
01:49:06,479 --> 01:49:08,960
Speaker 1: This is a team that had a running back room

1893
01:49:09,000 --> 01:49:13,120
Speaker 1: that included at least one Hall of Famer for sure,

1894
01:49:13,120 --> 01:49:17,080
Speaker 1: and Frank Gore. Arguably Clinton Portis is still going to

1895
01:49:17,080 --> 01:49:19,479
Speaker 1: get considered, and he had Willis McGahee who was a

1896
01:49:19,520 --> 01:49:21,599
Speaker 1: first round draft pick. It was just as deep of

1897
01:49:21,600 --> 01:49:26,240
Speaker 1: a room. You had a wide receiver tandem in Andre Johnson,

1898
01:49:27,080 --> 01:49:29,200
Speaker 1: who ends up who should be in the Hall of Fame.

1899
01:49:29,200 --> 01:49:30,800
Speaker 1: I think he just got into the Hall of Fame,

1900
01:49:32,080 --> 01:49:34,679
Speaker 1: had av It just was something. I think thirty eight

1901
01:49:34,680 --> 01:49:36,760
Speaker 1: guys on that team ended up in the NFL some

1902
01:49:36,800 --> 01:49:40,920
Speaker 1: absurd number like that. It was probably the most talented

1903
01:49:41,320 --> 01:49:44,720
Speaker 1: team Miami ever had, and in hindsight, it was a

1904
01:49:44,720 --> 01:49:47,680
Speaker 1: team that coached themselves. No offense to Larry Coker. Look,

1905
01:49:47,760 --> 01:49:52,000
Speaker 1: he was the offensive coordinator turned head coach after Butch

1906
01:49:52,080 --> 01:49:56,280
Speaker 1: Davis left for the pros the year before. And in

1907
01:49:56,280 --> 01:49:58,400
Speaker 1: some ways it's a disappointing team. While this team won

1908
01:49:58,439 --> 01:50:01,960
Speaker 1: the national title. This this is a team that arguably

1909
01:50:02,720 --> 01:50:05,000
Speaker 1: should have gotten to play for the national title the

1910
01:50:05,040 --> 01:50:08,040
Speaker 1: year before but didn't due to a bizarre computer glitch,

1911
01:50:08,680 --> 01:50:11,200
Speaker 1: and lost a national title the next year due to

1912
01:50:11,280 --> 01:50:15,439
Speaker 1: a questionable pass interference call against Ohio State. The point

1913
01:50:15,520 --> 01:50:19,599
Speaker 1: is that three year entity there. There's nothing like it.

1914
01:50:19,680 --> 01:50:22,519
Speaker 1: So that's what to me, why that team trump's LSU

1915
01:50:22,560 --> 01:50:24,960
Speaker 1: when you're trying to compare LSU twenty nineteen. The other

1916
01:50:25,000 --> 01:50:27,280
Speaker 1: team that is thought of is one of the greatest.

1917
01:50:27,320 --> 01:50:29,920
Speaker 1: And this is why, even if Indiana wins the whole thing,

1918
01:50:30,400 --> 01:50:33,720
Speaker 1: sixteen and OH is impressive, don't get me wrong, but

1919
01:50:33,920 --> 01:50:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't think the lack of NFL talent compared to

1920
01:50:38,080 --> 01:50:40,760
Speaker 1: the Miami twenty oh one team and the LSU twenty

1921
01:50:40,880 --> 01:50:44,320
Speaker 1: nineteen team, to me, is the differentiator. Sixteens and oh

1922
01:50:44,400 --> 01:50:46,160
Speaker 1: is impressive. They deserve to be in one of the

1923
01:50:46,160 --> 01:50:48,320
Speaker 1: five all time greatest, so I'm going to give them that.

1924
01:50:48,600 --> 01:50:52,520
Speaker 1: But I don't think they cracked the top two conversation

1925
01:50:52,680 --> 01:50:56,200
Speaker 1: between Miami oh one and LSU nineteen, So going back

1926
01:50:56,240 --> 01:50:58,200
Speaker 1: to my Miami top five. So that's we know the

1927
01:50:58,200 --> 01:51:00,679
Speaker 1: two thousand and one team is number one, So what's

1928
01:51:00,760 --> 01:51:03,160
Speaker 1: number two? Well, the number two teams Jimmy Johnson's loan

1929
01:51:03,640 --> 01:51:06,559
Speaker 1: national title team. That was the eighty seven national title team.

1930
01:51:07,000 --> 01:51:09,639
Speaker 1: This is the team they went twelve and oh this

1931
01:51:09,760 --> 01:51:15,920
Speaker 1: was This was the year after the infamous fatigues deplaning

1932
01:51:16,080 --> 01:51:19,360
Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl with Jerome Brown and that incredible

1933
01:51:19,360 --> 01:51:22,519
Speaker 1: defensive line that they had there. To this day, how

1934
01:51:22,560 --> 01:51:24,680
Speaker 1: Miami lost that game to Penn State is beyond me.

1935
01:51:26,400 --> 01:51:28,680
Speaker 1: Had Vinnie Testeverdi just handed the ball off once to

1936
01:51:28,720 --> 01:51:31,679
Speaker 1: Alonzo Highsmith inside the ten and that final drive Miami

1937
01:51:32,000 --> 01:51:36,320
Speaker 1: scores wins a game, and that eighty six team is

1938
01:51:36,360 --> 01:51:38,720
Speaker 1: considered one of the greatest of all time. And I'm

1939
01:51:38,720 --> 01:51:40,840
Speaker 1: going to put a pin in that eighty sixteen because

1940
01:51:40,840 --> 01:51:43,240
Speaker 1: I want to talk about them in what if Miami

1941
01:51:43,320 --> 01:51:46,160
Speaker 1: doesn't win the National title conversation. So the number two

1942
01:51:46,200 --> 01:51:48,400
Speaker 1: team of all times at eighty seven Miami National Title

1943
01:51:48,400 --> 01:51:51,759
Speaker 1: team twelve and zero. I was the first National title

1944
01:51:51,760 --> 01:51:54,559
Speaker 1: game I got to attend to watch them win in person,

1945
01:51:54,840 --> 01:51:56,839
Speaker 1: the eighty three to one. I was not there in person.

1946
01:51:57,320 --> 01:51:59,000
Speaker 1: My father wanted to watch it at home, so we

1947
01:51:59,120 --> 01:52:01,360
Speaker 1: sold our tickets. We actually drove to the Orange Bowl

1948
01:52:01,360 --> 01:52:05,320
Speaker 1: to sell to scalt the tickets. My fifty three year

1949
01:52:05,360 --> 01:52:06,920
Speaker 1: old self is going, what are you doing?

1950
01:52:07,040 --> 01:52:07,280
Speaker 3: Dad?

1951
01:52:07,439 --> 01:52:09,439
Speaker 1: Why did we not go to that game? But I,

1952
01:52:09,600 --> 01:52:12,880
Speaker 1: you know, the twelve year old version of me, I

1953
01:52:12,960 --> 01:52:15,559
Speaker 1: wasn't in charge. He was in charge, so we didn't go.

1954
01:52:17,200 --> 01:52:20,280
Speaker 1: So they're number two, and you know, it's historical status.

1955
01:52:20,320 --> 01:52:23,320
Speaker 1: This is when people think of the U. This is

1956
01:52:23,360 --> 01:52:26,599
Speaker 1: the team. The eighty seven team is the U. It's

1957
01:52:26,640 --> 01:52:32,439
Speaker 1: Michael Irvin, it's Jimmy Johnson, this is the U. Okay,

1958
01:52:32,840 --> 01:52:35,880
Speaker 1: that's that team. Number three is the nineteen ninety one

1959
01:52:35,920 --> 01:52:39,360
Speaker 1: twelve and OHO team. It's a team that had to

1960
01:52:39,400 --> 01:52:43,439
Speaker 1: share a national title, if you with washing the undefeated

1961
01:52:43,520 --> 01:52:48,760
Speaker 1: Washington Huskies. This was among the results that sort of

1962
01:52:48,800 --> 01:52:50,400
Speaker 1: after it was two years in a row that we

1963
01:52:50,439 --> 01:52:53,840
Speaker 1: had split national titles. Nineteen ninety the national title was

1964
01:52:53,880 --> 01:52:57,439
Speaker 1: split between Colorado and Georgia Tech, and in nineteen ninety

1965
01:52:57,439 --> 01:53:00,920
Speaker 1: one the title was split between Miami and Washington. And

1966
01:53:00,960 --> 01:53:02,680
Speaker 1: that's when everybody's like, we've got to get rid of this.

1967
01:53:02,720 --> 01:53:04,479
Speaker 1: We've got to have some system that at least lets

1968
01:53:04,520 --> 01:53:06,960
Speaker 1: the two best teams play each other. So let's have

1969
01:53:07,120 --> 01:53:09,280
Speaker 1: at it, right and you talked to him. I have

1970
01:53:09,320 --> 01:53:12,280
Speaker 1: friends in Seattle who argued this day that that Washington

1971
01:53:12,280 --> 01:53:16,160
Speaker 1: team would have easily handled Miami, and of course I

1972
01:53:16,200 --> 01:53:20,160
Speaker 1: think the opposite. But it was a that was that

1973
01:53:20,320 --> 01:53:24,200
Speaker 1: was Miami, the program, that was the machine, that was

1974
01:53:24,280 --> 01:53:27,400
Speaker 1: the team that just sort of couldn't you know, they

1975
01:53:27,479 --> 01:53:31,679
Speaker 1: just it was never flashy. It was this Dennis Erickson offense,

1976
01:53:31,720 --> 01:53:34,839
Speaker 1: which was kind of unique. It was a one back system.

1977
01:53:35,640 --> 01:53:38,000
Speaker 1: And Gino Tretta, who won the Heisman Trophy that year,

1978
01:53:38,080 --> 01:53:42,200
Speaker 1: was just make surely won the Heisman Trophy the year after.

1979
01:53:43,600 --> 01:53:48,000
Speaker 1: But he was he just was such a great point

1980
01:53:48,040 --> 01:53:50,360
Speaker 1: guard quarterback. I don't house to describe it, but that's

1981
01:53:50,640 --> 01:53:53,040
Speaker 1: and he knew this offense better than anybody else. The

1982
01:53:53,120 --> 01:53:55,320
Speaker 1: number four all time teams one I've already referenced. It's

1983
01:53:55,400 --> 01:53:59,519
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty three, eleven on one team. You know, I'll

1984
01:53:59,560 --> 01:54:02,760
Speaker 1: never forget in something. Stand when my father and I

1985
01:54:02,800 --> 01:54:05,679
Speaker 1: we were watching the Florida we played the Miami lost

1986
01:54:05,720 --> 01:54:07,360
Speaker 1: its first game of the season that year to Florida.

1987
01:54:07,439 --> 01:54:09,800
Speaker 1: We got killed. Well it's twenty eight to three, and

1988
01:54:09,840 --> 01:54:12,720
Speaker 1: I remember my dad saying is And at the time

1989
01:54:12,720 --> 01:54:15,760
Speaker 1: I thought he was just giving me hope and he says, no, no, no,

1990
01:54:15,880 --> 01:54:18,519
Speaker 1: this Bernie Cosar. Because we started this freshman quarterback named

1991
01:54:18,520 --> 01:54:20,760
Speaker 1: Bernie Cosar. He said, this guy's going to be great.

1992
01:54:21,000 --> 01:54:23,080
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he made some amazing passes, balls

1993
01:54:23,080 --> 01:54:25,840
Speaker 1: were dropped. This is going to be an interesting season. Well,

1994
01:54:25,960 --> 01:54:28,400
Speaker 1: guess what. We didn't lose another game. And this is

1995
01:54:28,560 --> 01:54:30,599
Speaker 1: of course, I referenced this the other day. The last

1996
01:54:30,600 --> 01:54:34,000
Speaker 1: time Miami was an underdog playing for the national title

1997
01:54:34,080 --> 01:54:36,520
Speaker 1: in their home stadium, they were facing a team whose

1998
01:54:36,520 --> 01:54:38,520
Speaker 1: schools colors were red and white, and it was the

1999
01:54:38,560 --> 01:54:43,400
Speaker 1: Nebraska team. They were double digit favorites. Maybe one of

2000
01:54:43,440 --> 01:54:46,280
Speaker 1: the greatest college football championship games of all time, thirty

2001
01:54:46,320 --> 01:54:49,760
Speaker 1: one to thirty Tom Osbourne. Ever, the competitor goes for

2002
01:54:49,800 --> 01:54:51,920
Speaker 1: two rather than the tie. But you know what wouldn't

2003
01:54:51,920 --> 01:54:54,840
Speaker 1: have mattered if he'd gone for the tie. Bernie Cosar

2004
01:54:54,840 --> 01:54:56,880
Speaker 1: had forty five seconds left when we got the ball back.

2005
01:54:57,480 --> 01:54:59,840
Speaker 1: We were winning that game. He'd had driven us down

2006
01:54:59,880 --> 01:55:01,920
Speaker 1: the field to get the winning field goal. I never

2007
01:55:02,560 --> 01:55:05,480
Speaker 1: I have no doubt in my mind. And that brings

2008
01:55:05,480 --> 01:55:10,200
Speaker 1: me to number five. If Miami wins, I think this

2009
01:55:10,240 --> 01:55:13,280
Speaker 1: team will go there because it will be the resurrection team.

2010
01:55:13,320 --> 01:55:16,200
Speaker 1: It will be the team that brought Miami back, and

2011
01:55:16,320 --> 01:55:18,160
Speaker 1: it will be the team that had to beat more

2012
01:55:18,160 --> 01:55:21,360
Speaker 1: great teams than any other national title team ever. If

2013
01:55:21,360 --> 01:55:24,520
Speaker 1: Miami beats Indiana, they'll have beaten number one Indiana, number two,

2014
01:55:24,560 --> 01:55:27,480
Speaker 1: Ohio State, number six, Old Miss, number seven, Texas A,

2015
01:55:27,520 --> 01:55:31,960
Speaker 1: and m oh Let's not forget Notre Dame. They will

2016
01:55:32,000 --> 01:55:37,440
Speaker 1: have won three SEC games, beaten three different SEC opponents.

2017
01:55:37,440 --> 01:55:42,640
Speaker 1: They'll have beaten two different Big ten opponents. Obviously, they

2018
01:55:42,640 --> 01:55:46,040
Speaker 1: didn't win the ah CC because of the bizarre diebreaker rules,

2019
01:55:46,960 --> 01:55:51,120
Speaker 1: which would always is going to be an awkward, by

2020
01:55:51,160 --> 01:55:56,960
Speaker 1: the way comment under this team, but it is. I

2021
01:55:57,000 --> 01:56:01,000
Speaker 1: do think when you look, there is no national title

2022
01:56:01,040 --> 01:56:03,440
Speaker 1: team that will have had to deal with the gauntlet.

2023
01:56:04,560 --> 01:56:05,680
Speaker 1: And by the way, this is going to be the

2024
01:56:05,720 --> 01:56:08,200
Speaker 1: new normal, right going through a gauntlet now is the

2025
01:56:08,200 --> 01:56:09,960
Speaker 1: only way you're gonna win a national title. You're gonna

2026
01:56:09,960 --> 01:56:14,280
Speaker 1: have to beat three or two. But you know, in

2027
01:56:14,320 --> 01:56:17,080
Speaker 1: some ways, Indiana had to beat Ohio State to get

2028
01:56:17,080 --> 01:56:21,920
Speaker 1: its by You're gonna need to win to defeat three

2029
01:56:22,400 --> 01:56:25,080
Speaker 1: great Top ten teams to win a national title. Now,

2030
01:56:25,360 --> 01:56:28,800
Speaker 1: at the end of the season, that's just something that

2031
01:56:30,000 --> 01:56:34,480
Speaker 1: the system didn't force that to happen before now, so

2032
01:56:34,600 --> 01:56:37,400
Speaker 1: that's why it is unique. But I'm going to put

2033
01:56:37,400 --> 01:56:41,320
Speaker 1: that team now if they lose. I do think this

2034
01:56:41,360 --> 01:56:44,120
Speaker 1: team is going to go into the conversation with the

2035
01:56:44,160 --> 01:56:46,880
Speaker 1: eighty six team and the two thousand and two team

2036
01:56:46,920 --> 01:56:50,440
Speaker 1: and the two thousand team, three three other Miami teams

2037
01:56:50,480 --> 01:56:54,240
Speaker 1: that arguably had the most talent of anybody in the

2038
01:56:54,280 --> 01:56:58,360
Speaker 1: country but somehow didn't win the national title either they

2039
01:56:58,400 --> 01:57:00,880
Speaker 1: weren't allowed to play for it a computer glitch. In

2040
01:57:00,920 --> 01:57:04,480
Speaker 1: two thousand, a weird flag is thrown, and like in

2041
01:57:04,480 --> 01:57:08,240
Speaker 1: two thousand for the two thousand and three Fiesta Bowl,

2042
01:57:09,680 --> 01:57:12,680
Speaker 1: or they run into the Hallmark movie that is Fernando Mendoza.

2043
01:57:14,800 --> 01:57:17,200
Speaker 1: But there you go. If my this Miami team wins,

2044
01:57:17,400 --> 01:57:20,400
Speaker 1: I will put them as our fifth, which means it's

2045
01:57:20,440 --> 01:57:24,200
Speaker 1: over and above the eighty nine team. So it would

2046
01:57:24,240 --> 01:57:26,960
Speaker 1: you know, it would bump one. You know. The eighty

2047
01:57:27,040 --> 01:57:31,360
Speaker 1: nine team is sort of, you know, the the least celebrated,

2048
01:57:31,560 --> 01:57:33,600
Speaker 1: and that's probably not fair. This was Craig Erickson was

2049
01:57:33,640 --> 01:57:37,080
Speaker 1: the quarterback. It's the least celebrated, and yet in some

2050
01:57:37,200 --> 01:57:41,680
Speaker 1: ways it's it When you look at that roster, it

2051
01:57:41,760 --> 01:57:44,240
Speaker 1: was just as deep with NFL talent as the eighty

2052
01:57:44,280 --> 01:57:47,040
Speaker 1: seven team, the ninety one team, the ninety two team,

2053
01:57:47,560 --> 01:57:53,200
Speaker 1: or the one team. All right, enough of that, Let's

2054
01:57:53,240 --> 01:57:56,640
Speaker 1: do some Q and A from you, and I will

2055
01:57:56,680 --> 01:57:59,280
Speaker 1: limit the college football after this. You just gotta you,

2056
01:57:59,320 --> 01:58:02,400
Speaker 1: gotta give me one more week. Man. They actually made

2057
01:58:02,440 --> 01:58:07,000
Speaker 1: the next all of my bloviating about the Hurricanes. And

2058
01:58:07,520 --> 01:58:09,240
Speaker 1: what's funny is I've gotten some emails from some of

2059
01:58:09,280 --> 01:58:11,480
Speaker 1: you who I think could have given two shits about

2060
01:58:11,480 --> 01:58:14,160
Speaker 1: college football before starting listening to my podcast, and you

2061
01:58:14,320 --> 01:58:18,760
Speaker 1: now become weirdly invested. Thank you. I really appreciate it.

2062
01:58:18,800 --> 01:58:21,600
Speaker 1: You've sent some incredible notes, and it's so clear some

2063
01:58:21,680 --> 01:58:24,200
Speaker 1: of you you you seem to care because you know

2064
01:58:24,280 --> 01:58:26,400
Speaker 1: I care, and I know you really don't care, but

2065
01:58:26,480 --> 01:58:29,680
Speaker 1: that means something. So thank you, and let me know

2066
01:58:29,720 --> 01:58:31,640
Speaker 1: when I should be rooting for your teams. I will

2067
01:58:31,640 --> 01:58:41,720
Speaker 1: do that for you, I promise. All Right, let's go

2068
01:58:41,760 --> 01:58:44,560
Speaker 1: to some Q and A. Some ass chuck ass chuck,

2069
01:58:48,520 --> 01:58:55,160
Speaker 1: all right, Adam from DC Rights listening to you discuss

2070
01:58:55,240 --> 01:58:57,080
Speaker 1: Super Pac money and negative ads. I'm sure I am

2071
01:58:57,160 --> 01:58:59,080
Speaker 1: naive and I have had the had this thought for

2072
01:58:59,120 --> 01:59:01,440
Speaker 1: a while, but in today's climate, what a candidate gain

2073
01:59:01,480 --> 01:59:03,520
Speaker 1: any traction by just saying I will only talk about

2074
01:59:03,560 --> 01:59:05,760
Speaker 1: me and I'm not going to do negative ads. I've

2075
01:59:05,760 --> 01:59:09,080
Speaker 1: often thought doing so would be a breakthrough. Adam from

2076
01:59:09,160 --> 01:59:15,440
Speaker 1: DC and sticking with your college football theme, fire up chips, right, Look,

2077
01:59:16,080 --> 01:59:19,200
Speaker 1: you know you would hope that this would work. But

2078
01:59:19,240 --> 01:59:22,920
Speaker 1: there's a reason negative ads. No. Everybody says they hate

2079
01:59:22,960 --> 01:59:26,040
Speaker 1: negative ads. Everybody says they don't want negative ads, and

2080
01:59:26,120 --> 01:59:30,400
Speaker 1: yet negative ads work. Right. Just think about how social

2081
01:59:30,480 --> 01:59:34,720
Speaker 1: media works on your brain. Think about how if you've

2082
01:59:34,720 --> 01:59:37,480
Speaker 1: ever had a performance review from a boss and they've

2083
01:59:37,520 --> 01:59:40,920
Speaker 1: told you nine things you do well, one thing that

2084
01:59:40,960 --> 01:59:43,240
Speaker 1: you can work on, and five more things that they

2085
01:59:43,280 --> 01:59:45,280
Speaker 1: love what you do. What's the one thing you're going

2086
01:59:45,360 --> 01:59:50,680
Speaker 1: to remember the negative? It's the humans. It's just the

2087
01:59:50,760 --> 01:59:54,960
Speaker 1: human brain. You know. We will process information. We will

2088
01:59:55,000 --> 01:59:58,960
Speaker 1: remember something in a negative context more than we'll remember

2089
01:59:59,000 --> 02:00:02,400
Speaker 1: something in a positive time. Text do I wish we

2090
02:00:02,400 --> 02:00:07,600
Speaker 1: were different than that? I do. Now here's what I

2091
02:00:07,640 --> 02:00:13,839
Speaker 1: would say to sort of take your idea and massage

2092
02:00:13,880 --> 02:00:18,320
Speaker 1: it a little bit. I think the candidate that is

2093
02:00:18,360 --> 02:00:22,200
Speaker 1: willing to do their own attack ads and not use

2094
02:00:22,360 --> 02:00:27,320
Speaker 1: third party nonsense that might be an interesting game changer,

2095
02:00:28,040 --> 02:00:33,560
Speaker 1: you know, So say, look, here's I'm going to respond

2096
02:00:33,600 --> 02:00:37,080
Speaker 1: to it. I look, my opponent is saying some ridiculous stuff.

2097
02:00:37,960 --> 02:00:41,840
Speaker 1: Normally this is when you have some dark money group

2098
02:00:43,240 --> 02:00:49,240
Speaker 1: from Americans for Loving America, paid for by Americans for

2099
02:00:49,280 --> 02:00:52,320
Speaker 1: Loving America, who will tell you what a creeper, terrible person,

2100
02:00:52,360 --> 02:00:53,920
Speaker 1: so and so it is. Here's what I'm going to

2101
02:00:54,000 --> 02:00:56,760
Speaker 1: tell you. My opponent's not a terrible person. They just

2102
02:00:56,800 --> 02:00:58,960
Speaker 1: have terrible ideas. And let me tell you why this

2103
02:00:59,000 --> 02:01:03,800
Speaker 1: idea is terrible. Point being is, I do think there

2104
02:01:04,080 --> 02:01:09,320
Speaker 1: is upside to owning your message, whether it's positive or negative.

2105
02:01:09,920 --> 02:01:15,320
Speaker 1: Outsourcing negative I think is something that's that pays fewer

2106
02:01:15,320 --> 02:01:18,680
Speaker 1: and fewer dividends over time. And believe it or not,

2107
02:01:18,760 --> 02:01:22,880
Speaker 1: if you really want a message to penetrate about your

2108
02:01:22,920 --> 02:01:26,320
Speaker 1: political opponent, then have the guts to do it yourself.

2109
02:01:26,680 --> 02:01:28,640
Speaker 1: And you're probably going to get more traction if you're

2110
02:01:28,640 --> 02:01:31,040
Speaker 1: willing to do it yourself, because actually you'll get some

2111
02:01:31,080 --> 02:01:33,360
Speaker 1: earned media going, Hey, it's kind of unusual, but at

2112
02:01:33,440 --> 02:01:36,080
Speaker 1: least this person's standing by their own negative ads. I mean,

2113
02:01:36,120 --> 02:01:37,880
Speaker 1: how many times do you see this construction of a

2114
02:01:37,920 --> 02:01:42,320
Speaker 1: negative ad where they'll have, you know, some anonymous voiceover say,

2115
02:01:42,640 --> 02:01:42,920
Speaker 1: you know.

2116
02:01:42,960 --> 02:01:47,560
Speaker 4: John SCHMENGHI does nothing but absorb special interest money, and

2117
02:01:47,600 --> 02:01:51,600
Speaker 4: then all of a sudden, Hi, I'm Jane Doe, and

2118
02:01:51,760 --> 02:01:53,080
Speaker 4: are you tired of all.

2119
02:01:52,960 --> 02:01:55,200
Speaker 1: This Washington nonsense? You're like, wait a minute, didn't you

2120
02:01:55,280 --> 02:01:59,280
Speaker 1: just create Washington nonsense with your terrible TV at you know?

2121
02:01:59,520 --> 02:02:01,760
Speaker 1: So that's but I think I do think maybe more

2122
02:02:01,800 --> 02:02:05,800
Speaker 1: authenticity in how and how your negative message is delivered

2123
02:02:06,680 --> 02:02:09,400
Speaker 1: might actually pay more dividends, and might be more realistic

2124
02:02:09,480 --> 02:02:12,200
Speaker 1: and actually might actually cut down on the personalizing of

2125
02:02:12,240 --> 02:02:16,920
Speaker 1: the negativity so much. But I'm not there on the

2126
02:02:17,000 --> 02:02:20,920
Speaker 1: larger idea that you have that somehow just people that

2127
02:02:20,960 --> 02:02:22,520
Speaker 1: have taken I'm not going to do this. I'm not

2128
02:02:22,520 --> 02:02:26,160
Speaker 1: going to do that. Your opponents will. Voters claim they

2129
02:02:26,240 --> 02:02:28,400
Speaker 1: like it, but they never reward the candidate who does it.

2130
02:02:29,320 --> 02:02:32,000
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Mike Vera, and he asks do

2131
02:02:32,040 --> 02:02:34,160
Speaker 1: you think more traditional Republicans are missing a chance to

2132
02:02:34,200 --> 02:02:36,880
Speaker 1: push back on Trump and articulate a clear alternative vision

2133
02:02:36,880 --> 02:02:39,560
Speaker 1: for the party, one that rejects maga's reckless forign policy,

2134
02:02:39,600 --> 02:02:42,840
Speaker 1: self enrichment, and big government impulses. Could someone stand up

2135
02:02:42,880 --> 02:02:44,920
Speaker 1: for the popular parts while denouncing the rest in Bill

2136
02:02:44,920 --> 02:02:48,040
Speaker 1: Womenham for twenty twenty eight. Also, what if Bobby Boden

2137
02:02:48,040 --> 02:02:50,080
Speaker 1: had left FSU for Alabama in the eighties or nineties,

2138
02:02:50,160 --> 02:02:52,840
Speaker 1: how might that have reshaped college football? That's a fun one.

2139
02:02:52,880 --> 02:02:55,960
Speaker 1: If I'll get to the college football in a second.

2140
02:02:56,680 --> 02:02:59,920
Speaker 1: So this actually this question, and I'm glad I have

2141
02:03:00,040 --> 02:03:03,240
Speaker 1: it in here because it dovetails with my with the

2142
02:03:03,240 --> 02:03:08,480
Speaker 1: opening of this podcast for this episode. So I don't

2143
02:03:08,480 --> 02:03:12,120
Speaker 1: think you can do it yet, what you're suggesting, but

2144
02:03:12,200 --> 02:03:17,440
Speaker 1: I do think the appetite for this among Republicans could

2145
02:03:17,440 --> 02:03:23,760
Speaker 1: be greater if Democrats sweep the midterms. I think if

2146
02:03:23,760 --> 02:03:26,880
Speaker 1: Democrats sweep the midterms, there is going to be a

2147
02:03:26,960 --> 02:03:30,880
Speaker 1: belief that maybe it's time for an alternative to Mega.

2148
02:03:31,280 --> 02:03:34,720
Speaker 1: Maybe Mega has punched itself out, maybe this is too

2149
02:03:34,760 --> 02:03:41,640
Speaker 1: exhausted and so, but you also get at something else.

2150
02:03:41,720 --> 02:03:46,120
Speaker 1: I do think, you know, I do think that a

2151
02:03:46,240 --> 02:03:52,920
Speaker 1: successful pivot from Trump can't be backwards. You can't say

2152
02:03:52,960 --> 02:03:58,120
Speaker 1: we need to restore return. That's not what voters know.

2153
02:03:58,280 --> 02:04:03,720
Speaker 1: Voters wanted. Look, they voted for Trump's disruption in twenty sixteen.

2154
02:04:04,560 --> 02:04:07,320
Speaker 1: They brought him back because they didn't like what Biden did.

2155
02:04:07,320 --> 02:04:10,200
Speaker 1: It didn't necessarily means they loved what Trump did either,

2156
02:04:11,640 --> 02:04:16,320
Speaker 1: but what they did want was was disruption, not restoration.

2157
02:04:17,800 --> 02:04:24,800
Speaker 1: So I think the first successful post Mega post Trump

2158
02:04:24,840 --> 02:04:28,320
Speaker 1: message will be similar to how you outline it, which

2159
02:04:28,360 --> 02:04:30,720
Speaker 1: is I don't think you know, which is sort of

2160
02:04:30,800 --> 02:04:34,880
Speaker 1: like you know, Donald Trump when he came down that

2161
02:04:35,000 --> 02:04:37,800
Speaker 1: escalator was a breath of fresh air that the conservative

2162
02:04:37,840 --> 02:04:42,400
Speaker 1: movement needed. But like any political movement, it's in over

2163
02:04:42,480 --> 02:04:45,760
Speaker 1: its head on some things, and it's celebrating some things

2164
02:04:45,760 --> 02:04:48,600
Speaker 1: that are just not good for the country, like this

2165
02:04:48,720 --> 02:04:53,919
Speaker 1: reckless foreign policy. You know, while I liked the president's disruption,

2166
02:04:54,080 --> 02:04:57,400
Speaker 1: I didn't like the self enrichment. I think you can

2167
02:04:57,760 --> 02:05:01,480
Speaker 1: if you if, because you're still going to have a

2168
02:05:01,520 --> 02:05:05,120
Speaker 1: substantial number of base Republican voters or are not going

2169
02:05:05,120 --> 02:05:08,320
Speaker 1: to be ready to outright reject the last twelve years

2170
02:05:08,400 --> 02:05:12,040
Speaker 1: of MEGA, but they're going to look for somebody who

2171
02:05:12,280 --> 02:05:17,680
Speaker 1: is respectful of the MEGA movement but ready to ready

2172
02:05:17,720 --> 02:05:20,120
Speaker 1: to go forward or turn the page in some form

2173
02:05:20,200 --> 02:05:23,160
Speaker 1: or another. So I do think in twenty eight now,

2174
02:05:24,480 --> 02:05:28,560
Speaker 1: I actually think your advice should be what it's what

2175
02:05:28,640 --> 02:05:31,480
Speaker 1: I would do if I were John Cornyn. But he's

2176
02:05:31,560 --> 02:05:34,280
Speaker 1: kind of stuck in a primary at the moment. It's

2177
02:05:34,280 --> 02:05:36,400
Speaker 1: what I think about doing if I were Dan Sullivan

2178
02:05:36,440 --> 02:05:42,800
Speaker 1: in Alaska and he's I'm curious, you know, if a

2179
02:05:42,840 --> 02:05:46,480
Speaker 1: Republican chooses to go down that road, is Trump going

2180
02:05:46,560 --> 02:05:50,120
Speaker 1: to punish him? I am in search of the twenty

2181
02:05:50,160 --> 02:05:52,840
Speaker 1: six Republican that attempts to triangulate Trump a little bit

2182
02:05:57,240 --> 02:06:00,840
Speaker 1: versus trying so too hard to you know, hug Trump.

2183
02:06:01,000 --> 02:06:05,720
Speaker 1: Like in theory, Cornyn has the resume to do it,

2184
02:06:06,560 --> 02:06:10,200
Speaker 1: but he is so in need of Trump to to

2185
02:06:10,200 --> 02:06:12,720
Speaker 1: to potentially get him out of this Ken Paxton box

2186
02:06:13,240 --> 02:06:16,280
Speaker 1: that he that he's not ready to implement it. And

2187
02:06:16,360 --> 02:06:19,120
Speaker 1: yet the you know, this is where Cornyn's in such

2188
02:06:19,120 --> 02:06:22,879
Speaker 1: a such a box, right, you know, the most vulnerable

2189
02:06:22,880 --> 02:06:26,280
Speaker 1: part of Ken Paxton is his corruption. But how do

2190
02:06:26,320 --> 02:06:31,240
Speaker 1: you separate Paxton corruption from Trump corruption? And it's you know,

2191
02:06:33,760 --> 02:06:36,040
Speaker 1: I can't wait to hear what John Cornyn has to

2192
02:06:36,080 --> 02:06:39,440
Speaker 1: say about Republican politics after he's out of Republican politics.

2193
02:06:39,600 --> 02:06:40,240
Speaker 1: And I'm just going to.

2194
02:06:40,280 --> 02:06:40,760
Speaker 2: Leave it at that.

2195
02:06:41,520 --> 02:06:44,520
Speaker 1: I forgot about the Bobby Bob Bobby Bobben and Alabama.

2196
02:06:45,320 --> 02:06:48,920
Speaker 1: What does it mean? It means Alabama when it plays

2197
02:06:48,920 --> 02:06:51,200
Speaker 1: for more than one national title in the nineties, That's

2198
02:06:51,240 --> 02:06:55,400
Speaker 1: what it means. That was a real possibility. I believe

2199
02:06:55,520 --> 02:07:02,560
Speaker 1: before it was before the hire of Gene Stallings, when

2200
02:07:02,560 --> 02:07:04,440
Speaker 1: they brought Stallings was sort of a bear guy that

2201
02:07:04,480 --> 02:07:07,360
Speaker 1: they brought back, and he got them one title in

2202
02:07:07,400 --> 02:07:10,600
Speaker 1: a in a game that they Miami just was a

2203
02:07:10,640 --> 02:07:13,840
Speaker 1: little Miami was too cocky for their for their own

2204
02:07:14,600 --> 02:07:16,920
Speaker 1: for themselves in ninety two when they lost that game

2205
02:07:18,080 --> 02:07:22,320
Speaker 1: in the Sugar Bowl. But I believe it was before

2206
02:07:22,360 --> 02:07:25,840
Speaker 1: the Stallings hire that they really and and I think

2207
02:07:26,360 --> 02:07:28,440
Speaker 1: if you go back, if you talk to old time

2208
02:07:29,120 --> 02:07:32,800
Speaker 1: FSU folks, I think they thought God was gone right,

2209
02:07:32,960 --> 02:07:38,240
Speaker 1: that this was going to happen, and you know the

2210
02:07:38,640 --> 02:07:41,440
Speaker 1: you know Alabama then it was just like Notre Dame.

2211
02:07:41,440 --> 02:07:43,480
Speaker 1: Those were just over here. And even though it had

2212
02:07:43,480 --> 02:07:47,080
Speaker 1: been a while at the time when when Stallings gets hired,

2213
02:07:47,200 --> 02:07:49,200
Speaker 1: I think it had been at least over a decade

2214
02:07:49,240 --> 02:07:53,720
Speaker 1: since Alabama last was relevant. Bear Bryan, I think retired

2215
02:07:53,720 --> 02:07:56,600
Speaker 1: in eighty two, if I'm not mistaken, dies within months

2216
02:07:56,680 --> 02:07:59,880
Speaker 1: of retiring. And then they went that rape. They hire

2217
02:08:00,000 --> 02:08:02,960
Speaker 1: former New York Giants coach Ray Perkins, right, and that

2218
02:08:03,000 --> 02:08:06,640
Speaker 1: didn't go so well. I think if he joins, if

2219
02:08:06,680 --> 02:08:09,640
Speaker 1: he takes that Alabama job, right, because at the time,

2220
02:08:09,680 --> 02:08:12,920
Speaker 1: Florida State couldn't break through. They were always sort of

2221
02:08:13,240 --> 02:08:16,400
Speaker 1: you know, either getting inched out, edged out by Miami

2222
02:08:16,480 --> 02:08:20,880
Speaker 1: or edged out by Notre Dame. And so with the

2223
02:08:20,920 --> 02:08:24,120
Speaker 1: resources that Alabama had, you know, the ease back then,

2224
02:08:24,160 --> 02:08:26,840
Speaker 1: the SEC was not that great. It was kind of

2225
02:08:26,880 --> 02:08:29,800
Speaker 1: a you know, two or three team conference at best.

2226
02:08:30,440 --> 02:08:34,320
Speaker 1: Smaller conference too by the way, So there was you know,

2227
02:08:34,400 --> 02:08:35,920
Speaker 1: he was going to get to that Sugar Bowl, which

2228
02:08:35,920 --> 02:08:39,080
Speaker 1: would have meant playing for titles. So probably means Alabama

2229
02:08:40,120 --> 02:08:43,040
Speaker 1: has two more national titles because how much how many

2230
02:08:43,040 --> 02:08:45,400
Speaker 1: do you get at Florida State by staying in Florida State.

2231
02:08:45,400 --> 02:08:48,120
Speaker 1: He got two right, the ninety three and ninety nine.

2232
02:08:48,240 --> 02:08:52,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, my guess is those two national titles go

2233
02:08:52,680 --> 02:08:57,320
Speaker 1: to Alabama. And more importantly, it's possible Florida State football

2234
02:08:57,400 --> 02:09:01,680
Speaker 1: is never Florida State football, right, and it's good in

2235
02:09:01,720 --> 02:09:04,320
Speaker 1: the long run for Florida State football. That obviously that

2236
02:09:04,360 --> 02:09:08,840
Speaker 1: Bowden chose to stay. So there's there's my take on

2237
02:09:09,160 --> 02:09:11,000
Speaker 1: where that would hit. All right, Now, let me get

2238
02:09:11,000 --> 02:09:13,440
Speaker 1: from John from Princeton big fans and c starco giants.

2239
02:09:13,560 --> 02:09:15,200
Speaker 1: As a Democrat, I feel the party has struggled to

2240
02:09:15,240 --> 02:09:17,960
Speaker 1: choose strong leaders. You think Biden catered too much to

2241
02:09:18,000 --> 02:09:20,000
Speaker 1: the far left, and if so, did that help hurt

2242
02:09:20,040 --> 02:09:23,480
Speaker 1: the party's appeal to blue collar voters. I think that

2243
02:09:24,200 --> 02:09:28,080
Speaker 1: Biden and by extension, his chief of staff Ron Klain,

2244
02:09:30,800 --> 02:09:34,960
Speaker 1: mistaken online activism for where the base was. I think

2245
02:09:34,960 --> 02:09:37,640
Speaker 1: it was a miscalculation. I think they thought that what

2246
02:09:37,680 --> 02:09:39,840
Speaker 1: they were seeing online, what they were seeing in the

2247
02:09:39,880 --> 02:09:43,040
Speaker 1: activist community, was really directionally where the party was headed.

2248
02:09:44,200 --> 02:09:46,840
Speaker 1: I think this is I think it didn't help that

2249
02:09:46,880 --> 02:09:50,320
Speaker 1: Biden didn't really run in a primary, didn't really interact

2250
02:09:50,400 --> 02:09:53,640
Speaker 1: much with voters because of COVID and because of how

2251
02:09:53,720 --> 02:09:56,520
Speaker 1: quickly the primary sort of shut down there after the

2252
02:09:56,520 --> 02:09:59,920
Speaker 1: Clyburn endorsement. COVID hits and everybody just sort of drops out.

2253
02:10:00,680 --> 02:10:02,600
Speaker 1: So I think he didn't have a feel for the voter.

2254
02:10:03,720 --> 02:10:05,640
Speaker 1: And that's not just him. I think Trump didn't either.

2255
02:10:05,680 --> 02:10:10,040
Speaker 1: I think when you just you had to run virtually

2256
02:10:10,080 --> 02:10:13,960
Speaker 1: and well virtually, it felt as if the Democrats had

2257
02:10:14,000 --> 02:10:16,160
Speaker 1: moved much further to the left than they actually did,

2258
02:10:16,920 --> 02:10:18,880
Speaker 1: so I think that had something to do with it.

2259
02:10:18,960 --> 02:10:22,480
Speaker 1: But I absolutely Look, Biden got captured by the left.

2260
02:10:23,480 --> 02:10:27,880
Speaker 1: It wasn't Biden's administration. He used Elizabeth Warren and Bernie

2261
02:10:27,920 --> 02:10:32,560
Speaker 1: Sanders to make staffing decisions, which, you know, personnel is policy,

2262
02:10:33,000 --> 02:10:35,360
Speaker 1: personnel is ideology. You know who you put there, and

2263
02:10:35,760 --> 02:10:40,120
Speaker 1: so he himself, you know, you know, the theory of

2264
02:10:40,120 --> 02:10:43,560
Speaker 1: Biden was to be the moderate. That's why he won

2265
02:10:44,560 --> 02:10:47,240
Speaker 1: both the primary and that's why he won the general.

2266
02:10:47,680 --> 02:10:51,320
Speaker 1: But he governed as if he thought the party had

2267
02:10:51,560 --> 02:10:53,400
Speaker 1: moved much further to the left than they did. And

2268
02:10:53,440 --> 02:10:56,360
Speaker 1: I think that that's that's why they we got a

2269
02:10:56,400 --> 02:11:04,480
Speaker 1: second Donald Trump term. Barn zip all right, this comes

2270
02:11:04,480 --> 02:11:07,040
Speaker 1: from Graham. With the closing of the CPB and the

2271
02:11:07,160 --> 02:11:11,560
Speaker 1: zeroing out of public funding corporation of public broadcasting, how

2272
02:11:11,640 --> 02:11:13,480
Speaker 1: is public media likely to continue on? You have a

2273
02:11:13,480 --> 02:11:16,120
Speaker 1: ton of local stations that still exists, correct, Will public

2274
02:11:16,160 --> 02:11:17,280
Speaker 1: media arise from the ashes?

2275
02:11:17,680 --> 02:11:17,840
Speaker 4: Well?

2276
02:11:17,880 --> 02:11:21,200
Speaker 1: I think it will. I think you're going to see.

2277
02:11:21,240 --> 02:11:27,640
Speaker 1: My guess is you're going to see. All right, I'm

2278
02:11:27,640 --> 02:11:31,080
Speaker 1: gonna put this in air quotes good private equity help.

2279
02:11:32,960 --> 02:11:35,720
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's good, right, I don't know

2280
02:11:35,760 --> 02:11:38,880
Speaker 1: if there's going to be demands for efficiencies that end

2281
02:11:39,000 --> 02:11:47,160
Speaker 1: up hurting. But the fact that so many local radio stations,

2282
02:11:47,240 --> 02:11:50,360
Speaker 1: local media are so necessary in so many rural parts.

2283
02:11:50,520 --> 02:11:54,640
Speaker 1: I think the the collection, at least on the on

2284
02:11:54,720 --> 02:11:57,640
Speaker 1: the on the MPR side of things, I think has

2285
02:11:57,680 --> 02:12:01,320
Speaker 1: got more value than frankly on the television side of things,

2286
02:12:01,360 --> 02:12:06,880
Speaker 1: on the video side of things. On that front, so

2287
02:12:07,120 --> 02:12:09,000
Speaker 1: I could see, I do think you're going to see

2288
02:12:09,000 --> 02:12:14,160
Speaker 1: more public private if we want public media to survive,

2289
02:12:15,800 --> 02:12:21,680
Speaker 1: that some sort of public private private equity partnership is

2290
02:12:21,720 --> 02:12:26,880
Speaker 1: coming in some form or another. Maybe it serves as

2291
02:12:26,880 --> 02:12:30,480
Speaker 1: a lifeline. Maybe a Democratic Congress helps to create some

2292
02:12:30,520 --> 02:12:34,160
Speaker 1: sort of private equity tax break that encourages investment in

2293
02:12:34,200 --> 02:12:39,400
Speaker 1: local media. You know, I know, in my attempts to

2294
02:12:39,440 --> 02:12:42,200
Speaker 1: try to see to try to improve and get some

2295
02:12:42,280 --> 02:12:45,440
Speaker 1: local media startups off the ground, coming up with some

2296
02:12:45,600 --> 02:12:49,480
Speaker 1: tax incentive for businesses you know who get who advertise

2297
02:12:49,520 --> 02:12:51,760
Speaker 1: in local media get a tax break. Maybe they you know,

2298
02:12:51,840 --> 02:12:56,040
Speaker 1: get different things where you create in the same way

2299
02:12:56,040 --> 02:13:02,800
Speaker 1: you try to help a h A a a lesser

2300
02:13:02,840 --> 02:13:05,640
Speaker 1: developed part of a city, and you create sort of

2301
02:13:05,680 --> 02:13:07,800
Speaker 1: an empowerment zone where it's a tax free zone in

2302
02:13:07,880 --> 02:13:11,600
Speaker 1: order to encourage business to come in because they get

2303
02:13:11,640 --> 02:13:14,360
Speaker 1: a tax break if they're willing to come in. I

2304
02:13:14,440 --> 02:13:18,480
Speaker 1: think that the next thing, the most realistic legislation you

2305
02:13:18,520 --> 02:13:20,680
Speaker 1: can get past, either on a state or federal level,

2306
02:13:21,520 --> 02:13:25,240
Speaker 1: are tax incentives to help local media get up off

2307
02:13:25,320 --> 02:13:30,040
Speaker 1: the ground. So I could I sort of see that

2308
02:13:30,280 --> 02:13:33,520
Speaker 1: as the direction. I don't think it's where advocates of

2309
02:13:33,520 --> 02:13:35,800
Speaker 1: public media want to go right now, but I think

2310
02:13:35,800 --> 02:13:39,640
Speaker 1: that's where it's going to end up going. All right,

2311
02:13:39,800 --> 02:13:41,640
Speaker 1: Next one is anonymous, and I think I'm going to

2312
02:13:41,720 --> 02:13:44,560
Speaker 1: make this the last, the last question. This will be

2313
02:13:44,600 --> 02:13:47,560
Speaker 1: the fifth. Yeah, well, we'll go this plus one more.

2314
02:13:47,560 --> 02:13:50,640
Speaker 1: I like the Puerto Rico question that's next. All right,

2315
02:13:50,680 --> 02:13:52,720
Speaker 1: This comes from anonymous. Hey, Congratchen your canes from an

2316
02:13:52,720 --> 02:13:54,920
Speaker 1: Ole miss lum who made the trip to Glendale painful

2317
02:13:54,920 --> 02:13:57,240
Speaker 1: as it is, God bless you. I'll admit the better team. One.

2318
02:13:57,280 --> 02:13:59,960
Speaker 1: My question is about Mississippi's US Senate race. Is there

2319
02:14:00,080 --> 02:14:02,600
Speaker 1: any realistic path for a Democrat given the states racial

2320
02:14:02,640 --> 02:14:06,640
Speaker 1: polarization and history of strong Republican performances even against modern Democrats,

2321
02:14:06,640 --> 02:14:09,240
Speaker 1: I find the optimism hard to buy. Would love to

2322
02:14:09,280 --> 02:14:14,440
Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. Well, look, the whole argument about Mississippi

2323
02:14:14,720 --> 02:14:21,760
Speaker 1: being competitive really is a voter registration analysis. The number

2324
02:14:22,040 --> 02:14:25,919
Speaker 1: of This is a state that the majority of registered

2325
02:14:26,000 --> 02:14:29,320
Speaker 1: voters could easily be African American, but that isn't the case.

2326
02:14:29,560 --> 02:14:34,000
Speaker 1: I think that there is a lot of unregistered Mississippi

2327
02:14:34,040 --> 02:14:39,960
Speaker 1: voters out there, and that a more coordinated effort that

2328
02:14:40,440 --> 02:14:43,760
Speaker 1: took place four years. You can't just parachute in and out.

2329
02:14:43,920 --> 02:14:47,240
Speaker 1: So this is why. But the reason there's always been

2330
02:14:47,280 --> 02:14:51,880
Speaker 1: this what about Mississippi Among Democrats, there's always been this

2331
02:14:51,960 --> 02:14:55,160
Speaker 1: what about Mississippi? Not what you don't you know, you're

2332
02:14:55,160 --> 02:14:58,640
Speaker 1: not making the realistic argument about Alabama even let but

2333
02:14:59,400 --> 02:15:02,080
Speaker 1: to a lesser and South Carolina is in the same vote.

2334
02:15:02,280 --> 02:15:07,680
Speaker 1: There is a lot of unregistered or unactivated might be

2335
02:15:07,720 --> 02:15:10,720
Speaker 1: a better term for it, African American voters and rural

2336
02:15:10,760 --> 02:15:13,920
Speaker 1: parts of Mississippi and South Carolina who the party does

2337
02:15:13,920 --> 02:15:17,160
Speaker 1: a poor job of communicating with. Right, the Democratic Party's

2338
02:15:17,240 --> 02:15:20,720
Speaker 1: rural voter problem isn't just a white rural voter. It's

2339
02:15:20,760 --> 02:15:23,480
Speaker 1: a Latino rural voter problem in Texas, and it's a

2340
02:15:23,520 --> 02:15:27,120
Speaker 1: black rural voter problem in North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi,

2341
02:15:27,120 --> 02:15:38,360
Speaker 1: and Alabama. And so there is that's the argument. You're

2342
02:15:38,440 --> 02:15:41,440
Speaker 1: right in that we've seen we've seen sort of both

2343
02:15:41,520 --> 02:15:47,480
Speaker 1: theories tested. Right, the moderate white Democrat Presley Right runs

2344
02:15:47,480 --> 02:15:50,880
Speaker 1: for governor. You know, it's competitive, and you know, because

2345
02:15:51,040 --> 02:15:53,600
Speaker 1: there's this idea if you can just break get into

2346
02:15:53,600 --> 02:15:56,680
Speaker 1: the mid twenties of the white vote, you know, if

2347
02:15:56,720 --> 02:15:58,560
Speaker 1: you can break the teens and get into the mid

2348
02:15:58,640 --> 02:16:02,200
Speaker 1: twenties of the white vote, have a high African American

2349
02:16:02,240 --> 02:16:05,120
Speaker 1: turnout and win those by huge numbers seventy you know,

2350
02:16:06,040 --> 02:16:09,080
Speaker 1: sixty seventy percent there that that you can make the

2351
02:16:09,120 --> 02:16:14,800
Speaker 1: math work. Or do you get an African American nominee

2352
02:16:14,800 --> 02:16:18,600
Speaker 1: like Mike Espie, who we've seen that experiment in Mississippi.

2353
02:16:19,640 --> 02:16:23,720
Speaker 1: You know, can he so maximize turnout among African Americans

2354
02:16:23,720 --> 02:16:26,680
Speaker 1: that it can overcome having a white vote share that's

2355
02:16:26,680 --> 02:16:31,880
Speaker 1: in the teen seventeen, eighteen, nineteen percent. You know there,

2356
02:16:32,360 --> 02:16:37,520
Speaker 1: there's there's yet to be quite the goldilocks. You know,

2357
02:16:38,120 --> 02:16:40,600
Speaker 1: the last time Democrats were able to win some statewide

2358
02:16:40,680 --> 02:16:43,440
Speaker 1: races for governor there in the state or even go

2359
02:16:43,520 --> 02:16:46,800
Speaker 1: way back and Senate, it's back when Democrats did better

2360
02:16:46,840 --> 02:16:50,880
Speaker 1: with the white vote. So you know, but there are

2361
02:16:50,920 --> 02:16:53,520
Speaker 1: two you know in this case in Mississippi. There are

2362
02:16:53,520 --> 02:17:01,039
Speaker 1: two two you know, sort of two metrics to try

2363
02:17:01,040 --> 02:17:04,280
Speaker 1: to to try to manipulate here if you're a campaign operative.

2364
02:17:04,640 --> 02:17:08,240
Speaker 1: One is to supercharge voter registration in rural African American

2365
02:17:08,240 --> 02:17:12,280
Speaker 1: communities and give them a reason to turn out. And

2366
02:17:12,320 --> 02:17:19,039
Speaker 1: the other is to do that plus find a moderate

2367
02:17:19,400 --> 02:17:25,680
Speaker 1: white Democrat that doesn't that that can appeal to Chamber

2368
02:17:25,680 --> 02:17:31,880
Speaker 1: of commerce type Republicans. Right, basically you know, the Roger

2369
02:17:31,920 --> 02:17:39,360
Speaker 1: Wicker wing of the party, you know somewhat. So look,

2370
02:17:39,400 --> 02:17:41,160
Speaker 1: I'm not a believer that you can do. You know,

2371
02:17:42,040 --> 02:17:46,480
Speaker 1: Georgia didn't wasn't one cycle. Right, Democrats started working on

2372
02:17:46,520 --> 02:17:51,840
Speaker 1: Georgia when Barack Obama did shockingly well in O eight

2373
02:17:52,320 --> 02:17:55,200
Speaker 1: and in twelve he came up short without a lot

2374
02:17:55,240 --> 02:17:57,920
Speaker 1: of camp but they did. They started the voter registration.

2375
02:17:58,000 --> 02:18:00,600
Speaker 1: Then Stacy Abrams and her organization got more involved. So

2376
02:18:01,160 --> 02:18:03,920
Speaker 1: it's it's a I would argue, and this is why

2377
02:18:04,120 --> 02:18:06,959
Speaker 1: the leadership of the DNC has just been such a

2378
02:18:07,000 --> 02:18:11,120
Speaker 1: catastrophe for the last two decades generally, which is the

2379
02:18:11,200 --> 02:18:14,560
Speaker 1: DNC has been focused on just how do you succeed

2380
02:18:14,600 --> 02:18:17,920
Speaker 1: in the seven swing states, eight swing states, six swing states, whatever,

2381
02:18:17,959 --> 02:18:21,720
Speaker 1: it is and everything else is less of a priority.

2382
02:18:22,480 --> 02:18:25,120
Speaker 1: There has never been any medium or long term thinking

2383
02:18:25,240 --> 02:18:29,120
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side of the of the I'm not

2384
02:18:29,160 --> 02:18:31,879
Speaker 1: saying there aren't individuals who have been that way, but

2385
02:18:32,000 --> 02:18:35,200
Speaker 1: there is Republicans who think more long term and think

2386
02:18:35,240 --> 02:18:38,879
Speaker 1: about sort of over time, how do they make progress

2387
02:18:38,879 --> 02:18:42,160
Speaker 1: where over time they can put a state in play.

2388
02:18:42,200 --> 02:18:45,240
Speaker 1: Minnesota has been a big project for them for quite

2389
02:18:45,240 --> 02:18:48,880
Speaker 1: some time, and I think they're you know, there's a

2390
02:18:48,920 --> 02:18:51,440
Speaker 1: lot of crazy happening right now in Minnesota, and it's

2391
02:18:51,480 --> 02:18:53,720
Speaker 1: going to be interesting to see whether this is at

2392
02:18:53,760 --> 02:18:57,680
Speaker 1: all helped the Republican Party's ability to win statewide in

2393
02:18:57,760 --> 02:19:02,800
Speaker 1: that state or not. But that's the thesis behind Mississippi,

2394
02:19:02,879 --> 02:19:07,560
Speaker 1: that it is a voter registration that if you improved

2395
02:19:08,160 --> 02:19:12,080
Speaker 1: organizing and voter registration, then then suddenly and then once

2396
02:19:12,080 --> 02:19:15,200
Speaker 1: you're competitive and it's evenly competitive, well then it may

2397
02:19:15,240 --> 02:19:18,360
Speaker 1: open the door to a handful more of potential persuadable voters.

2398
02:19:20,400 --> 02:19:22,760
Speaker 1: Last question comes from Chewy from Puerto Rico. He says, cheers, Chuck,

2399
02:19:22,800 --> 02:19:25,480
Speaker 1: I'm Chewy from San Juan. One of the most unsettling

2400
02:19:25,520 --> 02:19:29,240
Speaker 1: insights from Nuremberg twenty twenty five is doctor Douglas Kelly's

2401
02:19:29,240 --> 02:19:33,199
Speaker 1: focus on how systems enable destructive behavior. I watched Nurnberg.

2402
02:19:34,840 --> 02:19:37,640
Speaker 1: That's an incredible insight. It was about how the system

2403
02:19:37,720 --> 02:19:40,560
Speaker 1: did it and how people fall into the system, not

2404
02:19:40,640 --> 02:19:44,599
Speaker 1: who the individuals are, but how institutions rationalize and normalize misconduct.

2405
02:19:44,720 --> 02:19:46,560
Speaker 1: I think I know where you're going. His work is

2406
02:19:46,560 --> 02:19:49,360
Speaker 1: a warning that democracies don't collapse from a single active evil,

2407
02:19:49,560 --> 02:19:52,160
Speaker 1: but from the gradual erosion of standards and accountability. So

2408
02:19:52,160 --> 02:19:55,960
Speaker 1: my question is, are we still capable of recognizing normalization

2409
02:19:56,040 --> 02:19:58,640
Speaker 1: itself as a warning sign in leadership or become so

2410
02:19:58,720 --> 02:20:03,920
Speaker 1: conditioned to risk that only recognize failure once it's irreversible. Man?

2411
02:20:03,959 --> 02:20:07,080
Speaker 1: That is that is? That is a deep question. I

2412
02:20:07,080 --> 02:20:09,720
Speaker 1: don't there's no there's no right answer yet. Well there

2413
02:20:09,760 --> 02:20:12,320
Speaker 1: is a right answer, I think. I think I'm going

2414
02:20:12,400 --> 02:20:14,320
Speaker 1: to lean on the side of hope that we can

2415
02:20:14,440 --> 02:20:17,840
Speaker 1: recognize it. And let me end with where I began,

2416
02:20:18,040 --> 02:20:20,840
Speaker 1: which was the polling that we got, the first round

2417
02:20:20,840 --> 02:20:23,840
Speaker 1: of polling that we got in response to Minneapolis shooting,

2418
02:20:24,240 --> 02:20:27,600
Speaker 1: where a strong majority of voters said it was not justified.

2419
02:20:29,360 --> 02:20:33,680
Speaker 1: I think if these voters understood how the recruiting process

2420
02:20:33,720 --> 02:20:39,879
Speaker 1: for ICE officers was done, coupled with the lack of

2421
02:20:39,959 --> 02:20:44,480
Speaker 1: training that's been given to them, coupled with the propaganda

2422
02:20:44,840 --> 02:20:50,000
Speaker 1: that is delivered internally to these officers about the neighborhoods

2423
02:20:50,000 --> 02:20:56,160
Speaker 1: they're going tossing in the intentional targeting of certain communities

2424
02:20:56,200 --> 02:21:00,240
Speaker 1: for political reasons, not necessarily for safety and security reasons.

2425
02:21:01,440 --> 02:21:03,680
Speaker 1: And you have and you create the situation that you

2426
02:21:03,760 --> 02:21:08,680
Speaker 1: created in Minneapolis that costs Renee Good her life. And

2427
02:21:08,800 --> 02:21:15,720
Speaker 1: so Jewie, I will just simply say, I think your

2428
02:21:15,800 --> 02:21:20,199
Speaker 1: question is a comment and it's a very important one.

2429
02:21:20,560 --> 02:21:24,240
Speaker 1: It's a very important piece of commentary because it's a

2430
02:21:24,240 --> 02:21:27,360
Speaker 1: point I was trying to make earlier on one of

2431
02:21:27,360 --> 02:21:33,200
Speaker 1: my YouTube updates, which was Ice isn't the problem. It's

2432
02:21:33,280 --> 02:21:36,400
Speaker 1: the people and how they're being trained that's the problem.

2433
02:21:36,800 --> 02:21:39,680
Speaker 1: And I am not going to go down the abolished

2434
02:21:39,680 --> 02:21:47,760
Speaker 1: ICE road personally, because in theory, we need immigration control,

2435
02:21:47,800 --> 02:21:50,520
Speaker 1: we need border patrol, we need customs. You know, all

2436
02:21:50,520 --> 02:21:53,560
Speaker 1: of that is a fact. What we need is better

2437
02:21:53,640 --> 02:21:59,920
Speaker 1: leadership and better training. And so the question then, to

2438
02:22:00,160 --> 02:22:03,120
Speaker 1: sort of reword your last question, are we capable of

2439
02:22:03,160 --> 02:22:09,640
Speaker 1: seeing that? I don't know, sadly that what I just

2440
02:22:09,720 --> 02:22:13,120
Speaker 1: laid out about sort of how we got there. I've

2441
02:22:13,160 --> 02:22:18,240
Speaker 1: not seen in a larger media context. Right, I've done it.

2442
02:22:18,280 --> 02:22:21,200
Speaker 1: I've worked really hard to make sure people understood this

2443
02:22:21,240 --> 02:22:24,760
Speaker 1: didn't happen in a vacuum. Right. The way they recruited

2444
02:22:24,800 --> 02:22:28,920
Speaker 1: ice officers guaranteed that they were going to recruit more

2445
02:22:28,959 --> 02:22:35,280
Speaker 1: hotheads than de escalators, and that was a recipe for trouble.

2446
02:22:37,600 --> 02:22:39,880
Speaker 1: Some people think that's a bug in the system. I

2447
02:22:39,920 --> 02:22:43,240
Speaker 1: fear others in and around that West wing think it's

2448
02:22:43,280 --> 02:22:50,600
Speaker 1: a feature. And that's you know that, That to me

2449
02:22:50,840 --> 02:22:52,920
Speaker 1: is when you just brought up Nurmberg and I haven't.

2450
02:22:53,200 --> 02:22:55,960
Speaker 1: I haven't brought this up. I've I've binged it probably

2451
02:22:55,959 --> 02:22:59,360
Speaker 1: like many of you already have on on Netflix. I

2452
02:22:59,560 --> 02:23:02,280
Speaker 1: sort of can assume so much. I'm kind of like

2453
02:23:02,320 --> 02:23:05,200
Speaker 1: a generic middle aged white guy. I will consume me

2454
02:23:05,280 --> 02:23:08,680
Speaker 1: some Nazi History channel stuff all the time, Right, I

2455
02:23:09,160 --> 02:23:14,120
Speaker 1: fall into that. I fall into that stereotype, and so

2456
02:23:14,160 --> 02:23:17,080
Speaker 1: I consume Nurremberg. By the way, if you're going down

2457
02:23:17,080 --> 02:23:21,520
Speaker 1: that Netflix road, the Circle of Evil eight part doc

2458
02:23:21,560 --> 02:23:24,800
Speaker 1: about the people around Hitler who please watch it. It's

2459
02:23:24,840 --> 02:23:31,800
Speaker 1: amazing and more importantly, you'll find yourself, Hey, that person

2460
02:23:31,879 --> 02:23:34,640
Speaker 1: is this anyway you know what you'll end up doing.

2461
02:23:34,640 --> 02:23:37,160
Speaker 1: I'm not going to further go down further. I'll just

2462
02:23:37,400 --> 02:23:41,520
Speaker 1: lean hard into into that. But there's there's definitely more

2463
02:23:41,560 --> 02:23:45,840
Speaker 1: than one character in hitler Circle of Evil that looks

2464
02:23:45,920 --> 02:23:50,080
Speaker 1: quite familiar in today's politics. So on that having note,

2465
02:23:50,720 --> 02:23:52,800
Speaker 1: why don't we make that the end of this episode?

2466
02:23:53,560 --> 02:23:56,360
Speaker 1: Terrific questions? Thank you, remember asked Chuck at the Chuck

2467
02:23:56,440 --> 02:23:59,199
Speaker 1: podcast dot com. That's how you get a question asked,

2468
02:23:59,440 --> 02:24:01,720
Speaker 1: Leave a comment somewhere if you'd like to. We do

2469
02:24:01,840 --> 02:24:05,160
Speaker 1: monitor that as best we can. We love our YouTubers,

2470
02:24:05,520 --> 02:24:07,920
Speaker 1: We love the commentary we get there, even the ones

2471
02:24:07,959 --> 02:24:10,600
Speaker 1: that you know. We don't love the trolls, but there's

2472
02:24:10,680 --> 02:24:13,200
Speaker 1: the trolls are fewer and far between. You know who

2473
02:24:13,280 --> 02:24:16,440
Speaker 1: you are, So thank you for that, and I will

2474
02:24:16,440 --> 02:24:21,480
Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours