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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by hard Rock that

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Speaker 1: we are part of the Volume podcast network. This is

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Speaker 1: the betting show that makes the squares sharper and the

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Speaker 1: wise guys pay attention. I am Chad moment. I'm joined

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Speaker 1: by my co host, my bff, my companion, my confadre,

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter Heado, Simon, Chad, how are we doing, dude,

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you how we're doing. I think we are

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Speaker 1: pretty overwhelmed by our launch with the Volume. The team

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Speaker 1: here on the audio and YouTube side did amazing work.

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Speaker 1: People don't understand like and they shouldn't care at all,

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Speaker 1: but taking this from a conversation to an actual show

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Speaker 1: that is launched in the span of a few working

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Speaker 1: days including a holiday weekend is hercu LeAnn and they

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Speaker 1: should be commended. It's a truly professional job by the

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Speaker 1: Volume team. And by the way, we are so grateful

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Speaker 1: to the folks who came along with us for the ride,

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Speaker 1: because with very little promo or warning, our audience turned out.

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Speaker 1: So we have a ton, a ton of gratitude. Even

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Speaker 1: Simon and his cold calculating heart has a ton of

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Speaker 1: gratitude where truly appreciated. A couple minor housekeeping things that

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Speaker 1: I've gotten a lot of questions about audio feeds. The

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Speaker 1: Sharper square feed should be showing up in Apple and Spotify.

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Speaker 1: You may have to scroll for a sec to see it.

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Speaker 1: The sooner you start rating and reviewing, the sooner it

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Speaker 1: flies up in the search rankings. We did this for

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Speaker 1: the old show, so we're going to bring it back.

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Speaker 1: We will read some of the best five star rated

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Speaker 1: comments on the show, and we're going to give away

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Speaker 1: some swag. So give us some feedback. Make it easier

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Speaker 1: to find for everyone. Rate review you subscribe in the app.

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Speaker 1: In the podcast app for Apple, that means hit the

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Speaker 1: follow button. Also gotten a lot of questions about a contest.

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Speaker 1: Because this show came together so quickly, we cannot organize

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Speaker 1: a contest for this season. Doesn't matter. Simon and I

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Speaker 1: have always built the show around landing on five picks

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Speaker 1: that we will put into contests that we play. Simon

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Speaker 1: likes to call them, you know, all cash contests. I

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Speaker 1: know a lot of you play pick them contests, So

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Speaker 1: we will still be finalizing five best bets each week.

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Speaker 1: We will report our record every Sunday night and update

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Speaker 1: it on Tuesday, and that is also the point of

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Speaker 1: the Sunday show in the mornings eleven am Eastern, where

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Speaker 1: Simon and I. You will be in on the conversation

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Speaker 1: when Simon and I are debating those final five and

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Speaker 1: locking them in after the latest line moves, injury updates,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. Quick reminder, Tuesday and Thursday shows at one

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Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern on YouTube and they'll get loaded into

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Speaker 1: the audio feeds at the same time. We will do

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Speaker 1: a short show on Sunday mornings at eleven am. I

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Speaker 1: just discussed it, and then we'll still do the wrap

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Speaker 1: up show, the look Ahead show on Sunday nights as

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Speaker 1: soon as the late afternoon game ends around seven thirty. Again,

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Speaker 1: all of these sharper Square YouTube channel on Apple, podcasts

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Speaker 1: on Spotify, Go, subscribe, rate, review, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Also last thing, and then we'll get into it. I

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Speaker 1: was so excited, Simon for my Chad Loves Love bet

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Speaker 1: On the Lions. I skipped right over the Niner Seahawks

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Speaker 1: first show jitters. My bad. Luckily, it's an really important

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Speaker 1: game for one of our categorized picks, so we will

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Speaker 1: get to it today. I apologize, but first Simon, we

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Speaker 1: need to check in with something brand new. It's the

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Speaker 1: Last Guy Highline.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Chaz.

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Speaker 3: A lot of phone calls obviously, you know, people excited

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Speaker 3: for the first week of the season, and you know,

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Speaker 3: run around all these sportsbooks talking on these guys, especially

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Speaker 3: the last twenty four hours. Just so many opinions on

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Speaker 3: our picks and where we're at and what we like

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Speaker 3: and we don't like. Let's start with what they hate, right,

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Speaker 3: Let's just get the bad out out of the way first.

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Speaker 3: But I kind of knew this first one was coming.

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Speaker 3: We were on the Commanders. I know a ton of

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Speaker 3: pros who are the ones betting this Giants number down.

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Speaker 3: They like this matchup for the Giants. I know all

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Speaker 3: the stuff about dan Quinn week one. I believe he's

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Speaker 3: one and four against the spread as a head coach. Okay,

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Speaker 3: I get it right. Maybe it is a dan quin thing.

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Speaker 3: He under prepares his team. They struggle in week one.

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Speaker 3: You know the Giants, though, to me, too much is

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Speaker 3: being made of the Russell Wilson being their quarterback. Is

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Speaker 3: if he's going to fix that team. Where I feel

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Speaker 3: like me and you've dived into it, that offensive line

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Speaker 3: with the injuries and the bad drafts and everything like that.

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Speaker 2: Over the years, it's caught up to him.

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Speaker 3: They just don't have the offensive line to protect quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: and have an effective offense. And you know, Neighbors, he's

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Speaker 3: been banged up coming this matchup as well. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: that's a game. We'll dive into more, I'm sure, but

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Speaker 3: that one jumped out right away. The big one I

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Speaker 3: was really surprised about. But you know, makes sense. I

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Speaker 3: guess when you really dive into it is that Green

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Speaker 3: Bay Detroit game, right I.

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Speaker 1: Knew you were going to say that.

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Speaker 2: I knew you were going.

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Speaker 1: To say that.

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Speaker 3: I know, and I knew when you were doing it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, this is the most public dogs.

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Speaker 1: You were hesitant, and we're going to dive deeper into it.

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Speaker 2: I don't care, I told them, I don't care.

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Speaker 3: Like I get where they're coming from, and this in

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Speaker 3: certain circumstance, I agree with them. But I think we're

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Speaker 3: both on the same page. And this Green Bay team

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Speaker 3: is overrated right now. Too much smoke's being pumped up

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Speaker 3: their asses, and on the flip side, too much hate

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Speaker 3: is being thrown at those Lions team in disrespect about

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Speaker 3: the loss of the corners which we agreed with. We

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Speaker 3: do think they will be taking a step back because

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Speaker 3: the coordinator losses, but the talent, the talent is so unbelievable.

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Speaker 3: It's no yeah, but these are wide receivers. The Detroit

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Speaker 3: guys are established, unlike the Green Bay guys. So again

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Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to us to diving that one more

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Speaker 3: because that was again not just one or two phone calls,

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Speaker 3: a lot of guys being like, don't let Chad take

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Speaker 3: you down this dark path, and I'm done with them.

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Speaker 3: I want it, So yeah, I can't wait to break

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Speaker 3: down that one. For the loves love the Ravens. The

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Speaker 3: guys love the Ravens, and we've seen that reflect that

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Speaker 3: this member is flipped at most books. So I still

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Speaker 3: like it. I'm sure you still like. I still think

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Speaker 3: it's a good number. But obviously plus one and a

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Speaker 3: half you can still get that contest. Wise, how do

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Speaker 3: you not auto play that number? We just will dive

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Speaker 3: into the Ravens war But that one did not shock me.

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Speaker 3: The pros love that, you know, the Browns another one

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Speaker 3: we'll talk about more. They just it's the same thing

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Speaker 3: we're reviewing that it's just an overinflated line. They're the

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Speaker 3: same thing as us. I feel like we all feel

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Speaker 3: the same as we could get a bad Joe Flacco.

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Speaker 2: That is our fear, probably with that Browns number.

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Speaker 3: I think most pros I've talked to that's the only

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Speaker 3: thing we're hesitant about. But I was shocked the overwhelming

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Speaker 3: support about our Browns pick, just because I thought it

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Speaker 3: was gonna be.

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Speaker 2: Again it's a big board. I thought people to avoid.

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Speaker 3: This one, but people tend to really love that Browns

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Speaker 3: pick in the last one the New York Jets, the

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Speaker 3: love of the Jets.

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Speaker 2: It's real. I know you're a little hesitant on it.

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Speaker 3: On Tuesday, we'll talk more about it, maybe come around

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Speaker 3: on it, but the boys love it. Like again, I

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Speaker 3: was hoping it was getting I didn't want to act

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Speaker 3: too excited about because I was hoping we would get

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Speaker 3: a three and a half. It's gone the other way.

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Speaker 3: The three is gone. So that was a game that

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Speaker 3: I loved. I was trying to play cool. I think

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Speaker 3: people could read through it and could see that that's

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Speaker 3: that's just a nice number in a nice spot for

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Speaker 3: a team that's gonna be really gritty, And we talked

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Speaker 3: about it, right, it's Pittsburgh on the road his favorite.

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Speaker 3: So that's the game. I'm sure we're gonna break down more.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, again, I forgot to mention this one. The

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Speaker 3: only other game I really got heat from was that

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Speaker 3: Falcons Bucks game, so we can talk about that one

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Speaker 3: as well. But again, I knew that was chalk coming

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Speaker 3: in like that's a public play for sure. The number

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Speaker 3: has now come down, I believe to one and a

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Speaker 3: half in most books. So yeah, money's coming on to

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Speaker 3: Atlanta team. But I'm excited to see where you saying

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Speaker 3: still on this Thursday show with that game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't chased it yet, but I do want

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Speaker 1: to dig into it. And I'm surprised. Let's let's get

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Speaker 1: into all the games that we were sort of of

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Speaker 1: trying to narrow down to and do a little bit

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Speaker 1: more research on. I'm surprised no one mentioned the Raiders

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots, And to me, I said it on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Discipline is the name of the game here, assignmon. If

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Speaker 1: we are doing our Sunday morning show and we are

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Speaker 1: talking ourselves into betting the Raiders at plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half, shame on us. Now, between the time we

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Speaker 1: did our show on Tuesday and today the line did

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Speaker 1: move up to three for a hot second, I grabbed

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Speaker 1: it at plus three, the only two bets I've really

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Speaker 1: made so far, Browns and Raiders, and because I'm still

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Speaker 1: nervous about the rest of them.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, I know, but.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, the Patriots are getting so much hype

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Speaker 1: right now. I'm getting alerts from ESPN NFL insiders talking

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Speaker 1: about the Patriots as a playoff team. Are you guys

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Speaker 1: kidding me? Like, if this gets a three, it's a

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Speaker 1: no brainer, zero zero concerns.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like the number. I told you.

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Speaker 3: I'm not trying to get too attached to like I

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Speaker 3: have my mentality of I'm gonna have times where I'm

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Speaker 3: going to be able to ride with this Raiders team

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Speaker 3: in better spots in the flip side of the Patriots.

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Speaker 3: I hope, honestly they win this game, even though I

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Speaker 3: am on the Raiders plus three because our week two

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Speaker 3: line that's gonna get like you just said, the media hype,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna get a two or three free point bump,

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Speaker 3: which again we're both I feel like in lockstep here

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Speaker 3: of this Patriots team that I think they'll be better,

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Speaker 3: But I think it is overinflated the hype and you

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Speaker 3: know it's gotten too far this other way. And you know,

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Speaker 3: big thing people are talking about is Chris Gonzalez. You

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Speaker 3: know they're number one, shut down corner, little banged up

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Speaker 3: that's huge in this matchup that I mean, let's let's

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Speaker 3: face it, the Raiders, they're not beating people with defense

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Speaker 3: this year. They're beating people because they're gonna have a

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Speaker 3: high powered offense. That's the hope with Gino here. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm just I told you I'm trying to get suck

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Speaker 3: to it, suck too much into this game because I

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Speaker 3: am so high on this Raiders team, and like you said,

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Speaker 3: the plus three we got to take it. So I

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Speaker 3: don't know if we'll take a contest because I believe

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Speaker 3: it will be two and a half almost at all

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Speaker 3: contest lines. But you know we could get lucky, right

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Speaker 3: if Gonzales gets cleared, you know, late line movement, this

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Speaker 3: could get to three, three and a half. So we'll see,

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Speaker 3: because I do think he is worth half a point

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Speaker 3: to this Patriot's number, like that sound important? He is

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Speaker 3: as a lockdown corner, he takes away half the field,

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Speaker 3: So yeah, to me, that's a big thing if you're

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Speaker 3: waiting on If you're like chat here and you already

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Speaker 3: got the three, you can just be patient now and

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Speaker 3: wait on it.

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Speaker 2: You got the best number.

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Speaker 3: If you're out there and you're still stuck at two

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Speaker 3: and a half of your main book and you can't

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Speaker 3: shop around, your state doesn't work that way.

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Speaker 2: That's the only book you can really use. Just wait,

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Speaker 2: be patient.

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Speaker 3: If Gonzales gets cleared, I guarantee you this will get

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Speaker 3: back to three.

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Speaker 1: We need a late run. We need a late run

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Speaker 1: from the market on the Patriots, all right, Cincinnati at Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: This number at the hard Rock is five, and it's

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Speaker 1: been moving in that direction pretty much all week. And

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Speaker 1: this was your as Simon says, I love it too.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to make our contest play likely

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Speaker 1: at five and a half or five, no matter what

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Speaker 1: the contest line is. I asked you the other day,

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Speaker 1: what do we have to do? And this is before

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Speaker 1: I knew it was going to be your Simon says,

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Speaker 1: I just knew that I was targeting this game as

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Speaker 1: a Chad loves Love before you stole my heart? What

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Speaker 1: do we have to believe to bet the Browns, which

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Speaker 1: is essentially asking what do we think the narrative for

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Speaker 1: this game is going to be? And we know what

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Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski wants the narrative for this game to be.

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Speaker 1: We know he wants his pass rush to dominate Gate

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Speaker 1: dominating it's a terrible offensive line. We know he wants

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Speaker 1: his veteran quarterback to play within the system, which when

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Speaker 1: he has quarterbacks who can play within his system, Kevin

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Speaker 1: Stevanski has proven to be very successful, and we know

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Speaker 1: he's going to run the ball and Jerome Ford is

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Speaker 1: a running back who's going to get most of the carries.

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Speaker 1: He was one of the most explosive backs in the

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Speaker 1: NFL last year. So while he's not a household name,

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Speaker 1: there is quality in the backfield. I can't find a

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Speaker 1: reason not to like the Browns. I just feel like

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Speaker 1: I like him more and more.

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Speaker 2: Actually, yeah, I'll just start it right from the top.

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Speaker 3: If people don't remember, I'm gonna beach to the death

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Speaker 3: of this trend twenty four to seven against the spread,

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Speaker 3: seventy seven percent since two thousand and nine home divisional dogs.

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Speaker 3: So it's it's it's the history. The historical data backs

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Speaker 3: it up. But we're also talking about how we like

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Speaker 3: this matchup. That's where like people are not I think

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Speaker 3: are overlooking here. What Chad is noiled is it's a

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Speaker 3: huge discrepancy between the D line and the O line

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Speaker 3: of this Cleveland Brown's defense compared to the Cincinnati Bengals

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Speaker 3: offensive line. And I agree there's ways they can encounter, right,

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Speaker 3: they can start running quick passes, screens and other things

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Speaker 3: like that. But when I turn it the other way,

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Speaker 3: like Chad just talked about with Flak in the Stefanski offense,

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Speaker 3: we saw them be successful. They made it to the

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Speaker 3: playoffs together, and when you look at it, it's an

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Speaker 3: offense that when it's balanced, it's at its best. Right,

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Speaker 3: they need want to be a team that can run

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Speaker 3: the ball, And do I know Ford's the answer, I don't,

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Speaker 3: But they also have you know, they have two different

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Speaker 3: rookies they drafted. We don't know who's gonna be the

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Speaker 3: guy there, but I think there's gonna be a semblance

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Speaker 3: of a run game. Then when they really didn't have

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Speaker 3: that last year, they had no run game because they

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Speaker 3: really did not have a pass can that pushed the

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Speaker 3: ball downfield.

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Speaker 2: They do that.

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Speaker 3: They have that now Flaco and the fact that Jerry,

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Speaker 3: Judy and Tillman are two guys on the outside I

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Speaker 3: think are really talented and they have a good tight end.

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Speaker 3: It all works for me with this clean team. That's

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Speaker 3: why again I like they're over four and a half

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Speaker 3: win total. It's like they're not as bad as people receive,

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Speaker 3: especially when you know a veteran in the early Flacco

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Speaker 3: where me and Chatter can be sweating right when he

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Speaker 3: throws that first pick in the first quarter, it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be brutal. But unlike a rookie who just creators in

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Speaker 3: on themselves, Flecco doesn't care. It's just another day at

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Speaker 3: the office for Joe Flacco. He does not care. So

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Speaker 3: to me, that's another thing I like about it, where

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Speaker 3: it's like he can old with the punches. He's the

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Speaker 3: type of guy who's been here before and he won't

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Speaker 3: get flustered by the Bengals in this moment. So, yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know home dog. In this spot, it's it was six.

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Speaker 3: Shout out to the fans. Listen to the show, and

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Speaker 3: we were able to get the six went to five

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Speaker 3: and a half. Now here we are twenty four to

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Speaker 3: forty hours later, and now it's down to five at

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Speaker 3: most books, so people can tell what the professionals like.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, the public again talking to book makers. This

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Speaker 3: is another money line teaser. Heavily bet team in the

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Speaker 3: Bengals that you know, people just think it's a guarantee winning.

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Speaker 2: We know the deal. Joe Burrow. I believe he's one

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Speaker 2: and four straight up in week one game.

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Speaker 3: So it's just something the struggled with and they're trying

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Speaker 3: to combat it having him play in the preseason. But

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Speaker 3: I think the number is still two over inflating. He

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Speaker 3: might win this game, but I think will be by

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Speaker 3: you know, less than three.

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Speaker 1: Good old battered Flaco. He's so old now he actually

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Speaker 1: is battered Flaco. Shout out Scooch and all the old

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Speaker 1: heads who have been listening to the show since the

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Speaker 1: ESPN days. New York Giants at Washington, you mentioned this

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Speaker 1: is a game that on the Wise Guy Hotline they

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Speaker 1: were not fans of our conversation about this game, in

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Speaker 1: which we liked Washington at the time, Washington was six.

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Speaker 1: The lines move in the other direction, Simon, you can

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Speaker 1: check in your app. Hard Rock. I think is now

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Speaker 1: down to five in this game. Like we know every year,

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Speaker 1: we want to be thoughtful about not over indexing indexing

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Speaker 1: on the Dogs and the Commanders were trending to be

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Speaker 1: one of the teams that you know comes Sunday like,

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Speaker 1: if circumstances played out we needed another game, they might

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Speaker 1: be a favorite that we like. I get what the

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Speaker 1: wise guys are saying, but I look at this Giants team,

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Speaker 1: and you said something really important the other day. As

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Speaker 1: good as their defensive line is Brian Burns and Dexter

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Speaker 1: Lawrence and after a Carter right, that's amazing. But Jayden

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Speaker 1: Daniels isn't the kind of quarterback who gets flustered in

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Speaker 1: the pocket. He's normally the kind of quarterback who finds

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Speaker 1: a way to escape via a lane on an over

333
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Speaker 1: aggressive pass rush, which I think kind of plays into

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Speaker 1: the strengths. Either these guys are going to have to

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Speaker 1: be really disciplined, or if they aren't, he's going to

336
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Speaker 1: take advantage of that. So I like that, as you

337
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Speaker 1: said the other day. But also, Andrew Thomas is still

338
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Speaker 1: not fully back from his Liz Frank injury. He was

339
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Speaker 1: limited in practice on Wednesday. There has not been confirmation

340
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Speaker 1: of what his status is going to be for the game.

341
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Speaker 1: He might play, but he might not be full strength.

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Speaker 1: This team cratered without Andrew Thomas last year, So I

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Speaker 1: get what the wise guys you're thinking. It's a big

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Speaker 1: number for a division dog, but this team is on

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Speaker 1: the road and sometimes you got to bet the talent

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Speaker 1: and the scheme a little bit. So I'm not hating

347
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Speaker 1: this game as the number gets smaller and smaller.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's just a classic case of the

349
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Speaker 3: numbers moved too much for me where I agreed with them.

350
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Speaker 3: If this was six and a half, six, I could

351
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Speaker 3: be talked into the Giants at that number. But like

352
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Speaker 3: you said, now it's down to five. We're getting close

353
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Speaker 3: to a four and a half territory. That's that's where

354
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Speaker 3: the value is going to be. So to me, I

355
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 3: have this game at six and a half. I talked

356
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:36,479
Speaker 3: to pros, we have this a four and a half.

357
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Speaker 3: So I'm you know, two point difference is a big

358
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Speaker 3: deal when you're when you're booking these games.

359
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Speaker 2: So I get where.

360
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Speaker 3: They're coming from in these spots, but I view it

361
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Speaker 3: as this Commander's team. They are going to struggle this season,

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, against really good and well talented teams.

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Speaker 2: This is not it.

364
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Speaker 3: This is not the type of game they struggle where, yeah, Chad,

365
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Speaker 3: we might have a couple fourth down stinkers that we

366
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Speaker 3: talked about coming with this Washington team, and the regression

367
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Speaker 3: is going to come. So sure, they could go for

368
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Speaker 3: it on their own forty on their first opening drive

369
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Speaker 3: and it goes the other way. But it's something where

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Speaker 3: I like betting Daniels like we did last year, yeah,

371
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Speaker 3: is that they won't change who they are. They're going

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Speaker 3: to keep doing what they do. So it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: they didn't work that one time. If they can go

374
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Speaker 3: with which they we're doing last year, three for four

375
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,359
Speaker 3: and fourth downs, they're going to win the games. And

376
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Speaker 3: usually that's what happens, especially last season. So what we're

377
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Speaker 3: looking at this year is just you know, I told

378
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Speaker 3: you my pause on this is that whole dan Quinn

379
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Speaker 3: thing that he does.

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Speaker 2: His team's historically have struggled in the past.

381
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Speaker 3: In his Week one I went back watched, you know,

382
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Speaker 3: a really condensed version of that Jane Daniels Bucks game

383
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Speaker 3: last year.

384
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Speaker 2: Just to see what the deal was.

385
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Speaker 3: And to me, it was just a guy's first start

386
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Speaker 3: on the road in Week one as a rookie quarterback,

387
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Speaker 3: and it's like, I don't know how much I could

388
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Speaker 3: take away from this and blame Dan Quinn for this

389
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Speaker 3: being a not having team prepared in this exact match.

390
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Speaker 2: Even know defense did struggle. We learned later on.

391
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Speaker 3: That Book's offense was really high powered, So you know,

392
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Speaker 3: I'm not trying to take too much away from it.

393
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 3: I'm trying to steadfast with Chad here on this Commander's team,

394
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Speaker 3: but people can see I'm waiving a little bit. There's

395
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Speaker 3: other favorites I do like, but then this number keeps moving,

396
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 3: my confidence keeps growing where it's like, Okay, if you

397
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 3: give me four and a half on the Commanders here,

398
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 3: I'm gonna hit it pretty heavy.

399
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Speaker 2: So it is a tough spot.

400
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 1: Simon comes Sunday. I just wrote this down. I don't

401
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 1: know how we're not going to have a conversation about

402
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Speaker 1: the Commanders because this number is trending in a direction

403
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,440
Speaker 1: where it's going to be pretty hard to ignore playing

404
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: the four and a half point favorite on a number

405
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 1: that has moved full two points for what is just

406
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 1: a much better team. All right, Carolina Jacksonville. I was

407
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 1: kind of glad that the wise guys didn't mention Carolina

408
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:58,239
Speaker 1: Jacksonville in sort of the hotline. This game was at

409
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Speaker 1: three and a half. I left this game in. I

410
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 1: don't think we're going to bet it like we owe

411
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: it to people to close out the Panthers conversation. Tell

412
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,200
Speaker 1: people that we are not putting in in the contest.

413
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 1: We may not even bet them. I think they've got

414
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 1: huge issues with wide receiver depth and health and experience

415
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 1: and targets that can make Bryce Young comfortable. I think

416
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 1: they've got issues with the defense. Derek Brown is back,

417
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 1: he missed all of last season. He can be a

418
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:34,919
Speaker 1: game changer in the run game, but we have no

419
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: idea if he's going to be healthy. Mis's the entire

420
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: season with an injured knee. So that hook is just

421
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: it's like, you know when you're watching vaudeville and they

422
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 1: got that big wooden stick with the hook at the

423
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Speaker 1: end and they grab the performer by the neck and

424
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 1: pull them back to the stage. That hook is like

425
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Speaker 1: grabbing me and trying to get me back, and I

426
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Speaker 1: just want someone to talk me out of it. I

427
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: want you to talk me out of this.

428
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say it's actually a shaky chad. There

429
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 3: has been convo about this game. I would say a

430
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Speaker 3: lot of the pros I've talked to they like Jacksonville.

431
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Speaker 3: I think they like them because of what they believe

432
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Speaker 3: they're going to be, like, you know, this season, all

433
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 3: of them I think on the same But as you right,

434
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 3: I think in the preseason you talk about how you

435
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 3: like them to win this division.

436
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 2: You know, AFC South.

437
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 3: They're a sleeper team that a lot of pros like

438
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 3: because they believe you're bringing an offensive genius with all

439
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: the weapons. You know, should take Trevor Lawrence, a guy

440
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 3: we both respected coming out of college.

441
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: And just as I lived up to that hype.

442
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: This could all be it right, it's all lined up

443
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 3: for them. So you already talked about there's a there's

444
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 3: areas of talent discrepancy here, Like Jacksonville is better team overall.

445
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: They're better defensively at certain positions.

446
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: Offensively, they're a more complete team, you know.

447
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: Better weapons.

448
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 3: So I agree with you, like I'm I'm happy that

449
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 3: we can actually stay away from this one because I

450
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 3: am like you. It's like, I really want to take

451
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,639
Speaker 3: the three and a half because it's Stillville. At the

452
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: end of the day, it is the Jaguars, and you know,

453
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: they could easily just melt under this new offensive system

454
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 3: and have you know total dysfunction Where this is year

455
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 3: two for Bryce shawng in this offense, he should be

456
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 3: way more comfortable and prepared in this exact spot. So

457
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 3: to me, all the factors of it, it's like, I'm

458
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 3: happy we're alh forceing this winning because again, there's other games.

459
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 3: It's my first Sunday of the year. I want to

460
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 3: be watching other games than Panthers Jaguars. So I'm happy

461
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 3: we can skip this one so I can enjoy my

462
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 3: Browns and Bengals.

463
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: I don't know, Like I know you said you've got

464
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,679
Speaker 1: thousands and thousands of bets already. I feel like I

465
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 1: want to go a little bit lighter in week one,

466
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: Like it's so unknown. I've got a lot of opinions,

467
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: but nothing is backed up by real data and what

468
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: my eyes have seen yet. So I feel like, even

469
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: though I've got games I love, I'm playing a little

470
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: bit more conservative. By the way, Travis Hunter will be

471
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 1: starting a wide receiver. His current total are four and

472
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 1: a half receptions forty seven and a half receiving yards.

473
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: You are a sneaky good player. Prop better we don't

474
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,199
Speaker 1: talk about it. A ton just because we focus so

475
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 1: much on side. Do you have any opinions on Travis

476
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 1: Hunter and his receiving total and his reception total and

477
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 1: his receiving are total.

478
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: I don't know what to say.

479
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 3: I feel like I'm just such a hater of him,

480
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 3: and I hate that I'm a hater because I want

481
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 3: him to I want it to work out.

482
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 2: But no, you can't. I would.

483
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 3: I would not be betting any over of his props,

484
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 3: any of that stuff. I still think it's I don't

485
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: even know if they totally know what they're doing with

486
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 3: them yet, where they're like, we got this insane weapon,

487
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 3: but we don't know how to use it because it's

488
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: it's never been done before.

489
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 2: And again my opinion has been shared, there's I just don't.

490
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 3: Think it works. There's no way it works. He doesn't

491
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 3: have the body frame for it doesn't. I just I

492
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 3: can't see it working him laying hits and taking hits

493
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: for a full season the way his body is built currently.

494
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 3: It doesn't. It doesn't make sense. That's why all these

495
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 3: people are comparing to Otani. If you guys ever seen Otani,

496
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: This dude is six six. It looks like in just

497
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: three hundred pounds of muscle. Like, it's just a different world.

498
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: So I'm excited for him, but yeah, for me being

499
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: the guy IM, I'll take his underprop, but I will

500
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 3: bet his touchdown prop because certain books you can finagle it.

501
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 3: Some books do have fine writing. If you get to

502
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: pick six, it counts towards the defense. Some books don't though.

503
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 3: Some some books will count of pick six as a touchdown.

504
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: So it's just an extra edge to play. If he

505
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 3: is going to play a couple of reps at cornerback,

506
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,239
Speaker 3: I'll take that upside for week one.

507
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 2: It's just a fun bet to make.

508
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 3: But he has the hatering me. Yes, under four and

509
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 3: a half. I just do not think he'll be the

510
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 3: number one focal point of this offense. I still think

511
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 3: it's Brian Thompson Junior.

512
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas good, look, good, good, lesson study the house rules.

513
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: I'm putting Miami and Indy in there right now. It's

514
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: a minus one at you might as wanted hard rock bet.

515
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 1: I know we aren't doing it. I just want to

516
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: know if I could tempt you like the line is moving.

517
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: Remember it was at one and a half. There's some

518
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 1: places where it's at a half right now, it's moving

519
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 1: in the Dolphins direction. Anything about this in which I

520
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 1: could tempt you? Do you think everything is just this

521
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: is so public, it's so sad that I'm even bringing

522
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: it up.

523
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, and shockingly though no one's no pros I know

524
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: really are pounding the table for Daniel Jones. Is this

525
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: cold team? I know a couple guys I like them,

526
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: like me season long. Like we talked about how I thought,

527
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: you know, if they take Daniel Jones over Anthony Richerson

528
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 3: just for this season, yeah, I think that's better as

529
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 3: a better I don't think it's long term better for

530
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 3: your franchise, but yeah, for me, looking at this line,

531
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: it's it's the classic case of I'm with you, Chad

532
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: that It's it's Miami indoors facing a team that I

533
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 3: don't know if they can expose their weakness. Miami's bigger

534
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 3: weakness is the offensive line could be an absolute train wreck,

535
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 3: and their secondary like just two things that are I mean,

536
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 3: everyone's model is different. My model has them both as

537
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 3: bottom thirty, so like thirty one thirty two. That's what

538
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 3: I'm great at. Their offensive line, they're defensive backs.

539
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 2: Could that change? Obviously after Week one.

540
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 3: Right, if this new offensive line puts it together and

541
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 3: actually work well together, that does happen.

542
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 2: D backs not so much.

543
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 3: Usually these guys are what they are, right, especially a

544
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 3: team like them who they're all in the market shopping

545
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 3: defensive backs. But again we're talking about can the Colts

546
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 3: expose that? I don't think so, So I'm getting there

547
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: with you, chatw It's like, this is the type of

548
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: matchup to indoors in a controlled environment against a defense

549
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 3: that can be passed on. Everyone's healthy, he's healthy. You

550
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: can get me there if you want to make it

551
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 3: one of your picks, but it would not be one

552
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 3: of mine. So that's where that's where a little differ.

553
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, I got no money invested in this game yet.

554
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 3: I'm undecided, but I'm leaning way more towards Miami side

555
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: than I was Colts a couple weeks ago.

556
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: All Right, well, guess what Miami is going on the

557
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 1: list to talk about on Sunday morning? Baby, We're doing

558
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:17,960
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562
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595
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 1: all right. Pittsburgh at New York Jets, this game was

596
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: at three. We were talking about it on Tuesday. Guess what,

597
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: As you mentioned Simon right now at hard Rock Bet,

598
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: it said Jets plus two and a half. The wise

599
00:29:55,080 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: guys have come running for that three. Lush, I can't

600
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,479
Speaker 1: argue with you. I'm leaning that way. It just feels

601
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: like the move to make just to question what the

602
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: line is going to be for us on Sunday when

603
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: we make the picks. But what do you think of

604
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 1: it at two and a half.

605
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 3: I still play it still, We'll still play at two

606
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 3: and a half, but obviously we'd love it at three

607
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 3: because that's that's the safest number. But it's just a

608
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 3: matchup of two teams that I think the general public

609
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 3: and bookmakers come into the season, viewed them differently, and

610
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 3: their win towards reflected that.

611
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: Where I've talked.

612
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 3: About it, like them the Jets, the Patriots to Pittsburgh,

613
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 3: all these teams, to me, they're all the same team,

614
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 3: like they all have strengths and glaring weaknesses and it's

615
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 3: all gonna come down a coach editor, Right. That's why

616
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 3: Tomlin's the unicorn of getting his bad teams the nine

617
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 3: and eight, And like I get it, their fans are

618
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: sick of it in Pittsburgh, but you talk to about

619
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 3: eighty percent of football fan bases, they will take that

620
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 3: Timelin existence every time, because yes, we all.

621
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: Want to win playoff games in Super Bowls.

622
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: But ind of the day, you just want a competitive

623
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 3: team that wins games and makes the playoffs.

624
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 2: Like that's that's the goal from us all these teams

625
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: the end of the day.

626
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 3: So looking at just this matchup, you know the three,

627
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: I love that number.

628
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: I did not think it was gonna come down.

629
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: I just I didn't really think pros would put heavy

630
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 3: money into this game because the unknown.

631
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 2: It's just so much unknown right now about this Jets team.

632
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 3: Where you know, I felt confidently professional betters would take

633
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and they would take it at this exact number

634
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 3: two and a half, like they I thought some guys

635
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 3: got as soon as I saw this move. I reach

636
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 3: out to people because people don't understand a lot of

637
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: line movement is fake. It's not fake, but it is

638
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: where it's like guys will come in on one side,

639
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: move a number, and then bet really really heavy on

640
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 3: the other side, and that happens more often than you'd believe.

641
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 2: This is not one of the circumstances which I honestly

642
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 2: thought I was going to be.

643
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 3: It's it's now been about twenty four hours, it's been

644
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 3: stuck at two and a half. So yeah, I think

645
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 3: we might be able to get back to three each

646
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: at but I do think more professional money will come

647
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 3: in on this Jets team to get closer, just because

648
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: so many things line up for this team where they

649
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 3: do have a good defense matchup wise against what this

650
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh offense wants to do. And then you know, say

651
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: what you want about Pittsburgh, their defense can be mitigated.

652
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 3: You know, TJ can be mitigated if you can run

653
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 3: the ball and you have a running quarterback, Like, there's

654
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: ways to attack them with that exact style of offense.

655
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, a game that I think people weren't excited

656
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 3: to watch, but.

657
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: Someone like me, I really love this game. I love this.

658
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 3: Matchup, but it's gonna be in the four box like

659
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 3: Justin Field's revenge game, Aaron Rodgers revenge game. Yeah, that's

660
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 3: the media talk of this me. It's it's Aaron Glenn

661
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 3: versus Tomlin. Like, I love these two head coaches and

662
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 3: I'm excited to see this step a matchup because I

663
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 3: just can't get over how good Aaron Glenn was defensively

664
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: with that Lion's team and now he's got, you know,

665
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 3: just as good as weapons here with this jetsam excited

666
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 3: to see what we can do, especially in this So, yeah,

667
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: chet another game where I don't know if we'll get there. Like,

668
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 3: I don't know how confident I am doing two and

669
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 3: a half in our contest. But people betting wise three,

670
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:11,719
Speaker 3: you have to grab that three if you pops and

671
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 3: you're just you're with us that this is going to

672
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 3: be type of game. It's gonna be ugly, it's gonna

673
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 3: be growing. No one's winning this game by more than

674
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 3: three Jets or Pittsburgh. So I think three is such

675
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 3: a key number in this matchup.

676
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, we're not going to get emotional about

677
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,959
Speaker 1: these things on Sunday, and we're not gonna get lazy,

678
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: and we're going to remember all of our notes. I'm

679
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 1: making all the notes. We're gonna remember every conversation. We're

680
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: not gonna let like a late line move or a

681
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: late injury or a late noise distract us like late

682
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: wise guy conversations that are happening in the sports book

683
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: at three thirty in the morning on Sunday. We're not

684
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 1: getting distracted Simon. Okay, I'm putting the Jets down, but

685
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: we're only doing it if it gets to plus three.

686
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 1: I want to bring these next two games together, want

687
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 1: to pair them appropriately because they are both in play

688
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 1: for a bet that would require some serious cohonas, and

689
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to make a call based on one

690
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 1: of these two games. First one up Tennessee plus eight

691
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 1: right now at heart Rock Bet at Denver. I hate

692
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 1: this game. I feel like this is a game where

693
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,439
Speaker 1: wise guys are telling me I have to do it,

694
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: even though it's ugly and scary, and for years I

695
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: would have auto played this for the Titans. But I

696
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 1: do feel like I needed least something I like about

697
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: the team matchup. Wise, I like things about the Browns

698
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: against the Bengals. I like things about the Raiders against

699
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: the Patriots. I don't know that I like a rookie

700
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 1: QB against a great defense in altitude. First first game.

701
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: It feels like a recipe for disaster. You keep hammering

702
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,959
Speaker 1: me about it. It has moved in the direction of

703
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,439
Speaker 1: the Titans because the line has come down after going high,

704
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,959
Speaker 1: peaking at eight and a half, biggest number of the week.

705
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: Can we just talk about this for a second as friends,

706
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: as compatriots, as partners.

707
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, hopefully the public gets us back to day and

708
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 3: a half bet more teasers.

709
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 2: People keep keep lowing up on Denver. I'm joining you.

710
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 3: I told you, I'm putting them in my Survivor. So

711
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 3: I think Denver's winning this game. But you know, to me,

712
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 3: the biggest thing jumps out right away. Chat if I

713
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 3: can give you some trends the easier mind, because you

714
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: said you don't know what to do week one, right,

715
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,959
Speaker 3: there's too much unknown. You gotta trust the numbers. Long

716
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 3: term winners, baby, that's what we're giving out here. It

717
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 3: might feel gross, it looks gross, but it's how I

718
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 3: make a living. Long term winners. They say, long term winner. Okay,

719
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 3: last twenty years. Let's go last twenty years. Is that

720
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 3: enough time for you?

721
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 2: Chat? Twenty years of data year?

722
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 1: You know what? It's actually whatever you're going to say,

723
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: I don't know that it matters because the NFL changes

724
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 1: so much.

725
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 2: It doesn't.

726
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: It does everything from twenty seventeen when they moved the

727
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,399
Speaker 1: extra point back and people started going for two point

728
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 1: conversions more everything, since twenty twenty when people started getting

729
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 1: more aggressive, like the kickoff rule from last year. The

730
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: game that we played today, that we watched today is

731
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: just different than even the game from fifteen years ago.

732
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 3: But god, if you go back trend all these coaches

733
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: were going for it on fourth down. They didn't reinvent

734
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 3: the wheel lately. Chad, you're overrating how aggressive teams are.

735
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: Last twenty years Dogs eight plus eight plus ten seventy

736
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 3: three percent the last twenty years, nineteen and seven, Week one,

737
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 3: nineteen and seven, Chad, So week one, Yeah, in week one.

738
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: How many of those Dogs had a rookie number one

739
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: overall quarterback? Because I know those guys have gone I

740
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 1: think one in fifteen against This.

741
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 3: Is why I feel bad for you, Chad. You you

742
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 3: sound like a sucker. I literally won. I had Ryan

743
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick on Tampa plus fourteen against the Saints and Drew Brees.

744
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 3: He won outright with Tampa. Okay, So like, don't give

745
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: me all this nonsense where you can't see the things happen.

746
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 3: It's week one, brother, Shit's about to get weird. That's

747
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 3: what you need to lean into here where it's like, yes,

748
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 3: if this was week nine, I agree with you. When

749
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 3: Denver is on a roll and everything's clicking, I agree

750
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 3: with you. You are fading a rookie who went eight to

751
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 3: oh as a favorite last season, perfect and you're betting

752
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 3: on a team that went two and five against the spread.

753
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:40,439
Speaker 2: They are left for dead.

754
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm going to give you two and

755
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 1: fifteen against the spread.

756
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, every book maker I talked to, ninety five percent

757
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 3: of the money the money is on Denver in the spread.

758
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: So, like, what are we debating here?

759
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 3: It's you want to weigh a long term winner, you

760
00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 3: want to bet with the sports books?

761
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 1: You know what, Simon, you know what, it's already week one.

762
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: I want to put Tennessee in the context only because

763
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 1: you have to own it. Were you're going to own

764
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 1: it and on Sunday night we're going to talk.

765
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 3: About Itboys the Cowboys a ready and a half. You're

766
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 3: betting the Cowboys for the same exact reason. It's a

767
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 3: huge inflated number on a heavily overrated inflated teams. It's

768
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: literally that simple. We're not again, not trying to reinvent

769
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 3: the wheel here. It's data, numbers, trends that back it up.

770
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 3: And you said you need matchups for Tennessee. Okay, Denver,

771
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 3: this amazing defense. Historically they always regress in the history.

772
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 3: So twenty five years of data, teams like them that

773
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:51,280
Speaker 3: finish top three defensively, every single one the last twenty

774
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 3: five years is regressed except Tomlin one year with that

775
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 3: Steelers defense. They're the only defense ever to improve from

776
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,720
Speaker 3: being a top three defense to a number two defense.

777
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 3: Follow it just so Denver's defense, that's gonna be the

778
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 3: biggest thing right away. They will regress. Game Ward, he

779
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 3: could be dog shit, he could throw a pick. That's

780
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 3: not gonna be that shocking. He will not be Will Levis,

781
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: who all he does is go three and out or

782
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 3: throw picks. Game Ward will eventually get into a rhythm.

783
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 3: He'll be able to move the ball against ever team. So, yes, Chad,

784
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 3: they're the worst team in football at Denver is obviously

785
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 3: one of the better teams in football. I get your hesitation.

786
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: They could blow out Tennessee. That's why we're taking them

787
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 3: a survivor. I'm just telling you this number should be seven.

788
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,399
Speaker 3: It's eight eight and a half. You gotta bet that value.

789
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 3: That's an inflated line. You have to take that number, all.

790
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: Right, Simon. You know what we're doing it this year.

791
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 1: We're changing it up a little bit. It's not enough

792
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 1: to have big balls, because even when you have big balls,

793
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: if you get kicked in the dick, like we're going

794
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: to with this game, you need to have brass balls.

795
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: So here we go. This week our brass balls better

796
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 1: the week Tennessee Titans plus eight against the Denver Broncos.

797
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: And we're putting this in the freaking contest, brother, and

798
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:14,240
Speaker 1: we're gonna and if it wins, all the flowers for Simon.

799
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 3: So there's honestly only one spy left because the next

800
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 3: three games we're going to talk about Chad. I'm I'm

801
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 3: I Basically people don't know I'm running the contest finally

802
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 3: again this year, I'm making our picks Chad had the

803
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 3: last two years. It's back to Simon making the picks.

804
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: What he means is like Simon gets to actually put

805
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: the picks into the your.

806
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 3: Chad say why to me on Sundays anymore? Like I

807
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 3: can't tell you how many times I want to break

808
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 3: this guy's next around game And he goes, why why

809
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 3: because the earth spins.

810
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 2: I don't know why, Chad, But yes, listen.

811
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: I'm inquisitive, and I try to set an example for

812
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: my kids to ask questions, you know, when they don't

813
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 1: know the answers. So listen, I don't want to skip

814
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 1: San Francisco and Seattle again.

815
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: So this was good.

816
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 1: This was also a game that was on our Brass

817
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: Balls list, and I apologize again that I missed this.

818
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 1: I slid right over it. It's just basically been sitting

819
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 1: at the Niners at two and a half. It's a

820
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: two now at hard Rock Bets. So some money coming

821
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: in on Seattle and Simon, I know that you've gotten

822
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: some intel about the wise guys liking the Seahawks for

823
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 1: pretty big money here. I need some I need someone

824
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 1: to talk me off of the Niners because I know

825
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 1: I'm biased. I know I'm heavily invested in them for

826
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl futures. I'm against Sam Darnold. I love

827
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: Robert Sala being back and coaching this defense. So go ahead.

828
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: I know you loved I know you love the Seahawks. Here,

829
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 1: tell the people why.

830
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 3: And I'm checking hart Rech right now because I just

831
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 3: kind of alert. Yeah, it's back up at two and

832
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 3: a half. So obviously there is some four Niners money

833
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 3: out there. And me and Cha had agree, like we

834
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 3: like this fort Niners this upcoming season, season long, and

835
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 3: I think they're a team that's well positioned. You know,

836
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 3: one solid coaches up these young guys on the defensive side,

837
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,240
Speaker 3: they could be really good. This is a bad spot

838
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 3: for them to be trying to get coached up right.

839
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 3: We've seen Kubiak, the offensive coordinator of this Seahawks team,

840
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: be successful really early in the season last year with

841
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 3: that New Orleans team, right when Orland's healthy. I mean,

842
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 3: they're putting up forty points a game before their OW

843
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 3: line got banged up in car got banged up, like

844
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 3: that offense was moving the ball. I came into the

845
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 3: year kind of being a Seahawks hater because of their

846
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 3: O line. I've really turned the page on them the

847
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 3: way I've seen them play in preseason and everything I've

848
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 3: read from their beat riders where it's like, you know,

849
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 3: they've really done a lot of work between the draft

850
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,399
Speaker 3: agency and trying to build out this O line because

851
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 3: they knew it was one of the worst units in

852
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,479
Speaker 3: all football last season. You're bringing Sam Darnold, who needs

853
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 3: a good old line to survive. They're bringing Kubiak just

854
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 3: because they said, Okay, if we don't have the best

855
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 3: offensive line, let's be a run team that can you know,

856
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 3: push a ball downfield as well, which is literally what

857
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 3: he does. He wants to draw the safeties in and

858
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 3: take you up, take it off over top, Like that's

859
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:03,839
Speaker 3: lazy way to say.

860
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 2: That's how Kobe kind of wants to run his offense.

861
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,840
Speaker 3: And to me, when I break it down, this is

862
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:10,399
Speaker 3: a match with the favorites, I'm like, I think they'll

863
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 3: be able to run the ball really well against his

864
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 3: foreign airs team, and then the defensive side. I kind

865
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 3: of love this matchup for the Seahawks against Party where

866
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 3: pretty surprisingly he's done really well against Seattle. I think

867
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 3: he's undefeated playing against him. I think he's three to

868
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,239
Speaker 3: zero in Seattle as a starter, but in week one

869
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 3: Shanahan's actually struggle as a coach, and I do think

870
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 3: it's because the offense needs is a rhythm based offense.

871
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 3: And I think at the end of the day, you know,

872
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 3: I know, they just signed Jenny Zen like that and

873
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 3: he's they're coming back, so at least they will have

874
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: two pretty solid receivers Kittles healthy McCaffrey's there. This usually

875
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 3: would be a smash spot for me with this team,

876
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 3: but just the fact that it's all in a road

877
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 3: against Seattle team that historically I think They're thirty and

878
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 3: six in the first three games at home. That's that's

879
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 3: a team that just usually wins even when they've had

880
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 3: bad teams at home in the first couple because they're

881
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 3: just so dynamic with that offense. And obviously, you know,

882
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 3: we're really banking here on Sam Darnold, So two and

883
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 3: a half, I'm not honestly comfortable here. I was worried

884
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 3: we're gonna come on, the show's gonna be one and

885
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 3: a half, and that that to me, would have been

886
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 3: a no play.

887
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:14,760
Speaker 2: Like people know, if you listen.

888
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 3: To the show before, how much I love the number

889
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 3: two and how much the NFL has changed now we're

890
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 3: two and a half is such a key number. So yeah,

891
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:25,399
Speaker 3: to me, Chet, I'm still confident about it. A guy

892
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,879
Speaker 3: I really respect. You know, he doesn't work with any

893
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 3: betting groups. He's just alone better that works with bookmakers

894
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 3: trying to get his money down. He hit this line

895
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 3: for fifty K, so he hit the Seahawks for fifty

896
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 3: kN and that's where I thought the number was gonna

897
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 3: come down, because this guy does move numbers. It doesn't

898
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 3: sound like a big bet, but this guy does have

899
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 3: weight behind his betting numbers. So you know, to me,

900
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 3: I already kind of like the Seahawks here, knowing a

901
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 3: guy I really respect coming on the same side as me.

902
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 3: And once again the home divisional dog trends twenty four

903
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 3: and seven in week one that.

904
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 2: Backs of the Seahawks.

905
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 3: Is this exact spot where it's like, I could see

906
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 3: the four nine ers winning this game somehow at the end,

907
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 3: but it just feels like it's a number that's a

908
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:06,760
Speaker 3: little inflated, like one and a half.

909
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 2: That was the right number to me.

910
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:09,879
Speaker 3: Still a two and a half, that's the good vuye

911
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 3: across the key number on the sea Hawks team.

912
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 1: Not a huge margin for air in this game, not

913
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 1: a huge one like I put it on the list.

914
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: It's not going to be.

915
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,320
Speaker 3: They take it heavily on Kubiak and thus run blocking

916
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 3: scheme working.

917
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 1: For We're we're forcing ourselves to believe in things unseen

918
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: at this point.

919
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 2: A lot of these teams. Though, to be fair, it is.

920
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 1: Like the Tennessee Titans and the brass Balls better the

921
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: week that we just made. I actually feel better with

922
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 1: the Titans being our brass balls bet than with Seattle.

923
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 1: The Chad Loves Love bet was Detroit plus two and

924
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 1: a half and that number is now at hard Rock

925
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:59,360
Speaker 1: Bet down to two. Uh so, you know, moving in

926
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: my direction. The wise guys came in and in the

927
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 1: hotline they talked about how much they liked Green Bay more.

928
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: I get it. Here's my theory is that this line

929
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 1: got moved too much by Micah Parsons, who's taken injections

930
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 1: in his back and is limited in practice and hasn't

931
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: done training camp and has barely been with this new team.

932
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 1: So why are they getting a full point of value

933
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 1: for a guy who we don't even know how many

934
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,919
Speaker 1: snaps he's going to take if he plays at all.

935
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,879
Speaker 1: That's to me the reason why I'm I'm playing alliance here.

936
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm confident with you in the same spect that that,

937
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 3: like my only pause here would be you know, the

938
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 3: Detroit could come out and rhythm with the scripted plays.

939
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 3: I'm not worried about the first fifteen to twenty plays,

940
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: but it's after that that's my hesitation because that's the

941
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 3: unknown here with this Detroit team in this offense, Like

942
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,919
Speaker 3: how is golf going to be? He went from McVeigh

943
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 3: his year to Ben Johnson, which we know now right

944
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 3: in the future, we know, looking back might be too.

945
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 3: Some of the best offensive minds in all football. We

946
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 3: don't know if he's not that same thing. So like

947
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 3: I get the professionals hesitation because Lafleur love. They know

948
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 3: exactly what they're getting there like that, Like again, love

949
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 3: no excuse.

950
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 2: I mean people say we're too hard on him.

951
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 3: We us being hard on him is the fact that

952
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 3: he played nine good games and got an insane amount

953
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:29,479
Speaker 3: of money and then last year.

954
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 2: You know, I don't put it on.

955
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,879
Speaker 3: Him as much as other people do because he got

956
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 3: banged up that week one game in Brazil and then

957
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 3: the injuries just kept happening rain only to him throughout

958
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 3: the season.

959
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 2: Maybe that's something I'll plague them all year.

960
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 3: But right now, his only injury it was his non

961
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 3: throwing hand, and it seems like he's been back fire

962
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 3: practicing with that no problem. You know, their wide receiver room.

963
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 3: That's the biggest question about Green Bay to me right now.

964
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 3: Right they're golden kid. He might be an absolute stud.

965
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 3: He might put their number one receiver. What do they

966
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 3: have behind him? Right They have so many injuries behind

967
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 3: him right now, and you know, I think read at

968
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:05,400
Speaker 3: planner fasci Ice ice or something crazy dealing with like

969
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 3: injuries that he's going to play through it the whole season.

970
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 3: But like that's a major red flag right there. And

971
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:12,920
Speaker 3: you know, a guy I love, Tucker Kraft, is fully healthy.

972
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 3: That's a big deal obviously at the tin of position.

973
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 3: But you know, overall, I just think Detroit defensively, they

974
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 3: have the athletes, they have the talent, maybe arguably the

975
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 3: best safety Tannema all football. Aden hel just said, I

976
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 3: know we were joking about it, but you know his

977
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 3: sacked total PROP was thirteen and a half. Fourteen felt

978
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: too high for me, right, I would take that under

979
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 3: There's no sense that he can't come in here and

980
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: still be a game record. Right if he comes back

981
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 3: and he is at eighty eighty five percent, I mean

982
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 3: it's one of the best passers in all football.

983
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 2: That is a big deal because you.

984
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 3: Know, Green Bay their strength to me, when I really

985
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 3: break it down, it is that old line like that

986
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 3: aligned with Josh Jacobs. That's the reason that all identity

987
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 3: of that team was so strong. So yeah, I'm really

988
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 3: excited for this matchup just because Green Bay one and

989
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 3: five last year in their division, like that was their.

990
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 2: Achilles heel Detroit.

991
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 3: Me and Chad, we're banking honestly on good coaching with

992
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 3: Campbell here and just the fact that he can hold

993
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 3: this all together and that you know, the OC that's

994
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 3: stepping in here.

995
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:13,959
Speaker 2: He was the understudy of Ben Johnson all this time.

996
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 3: He I think, is going to be a guy that

997
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 3: could show up and be next year on everyone's radar.

998
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 3: Is the next hot topic come being the next head coach.

999
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 3: So I think we're in lockstep here. Of it's about

1000
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 3: the number right, two and a half in our contest

1001
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 3: plus two. We love it if this numbers had a pick, right,

1002
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 3: if this moves all the way back to a pick,

1003
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 3: or Detroit flips to being a favorite, like we've seen

1004
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 3: these lines flipping. Now, I don't know if we love

1005
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:40,399
Speaker 3: it as much right because we're kind playing the value

1006
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 3: where we're still on Detroit. We still think they're gonna

1007
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 3: win this game. But at the two to two and

1008
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:46,439
Speaker 3: a half, Like when Chad gave it out, it didn't

1009
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 3: make me feel a little sick to my stomach because

1010
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:48,919
Speaker 3: I new Chalky it was.

1011
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:50,479
Speaker 2: But it really was about the number.

1012
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 3: It's like we're getting a loaded Detroit team is a

1013
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 3: plus and two and a half dog against an over

1014
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 3: hyped Green Bay team right there, everyone's darling right now,

1015
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 3: everyone's super Bowl pick. It's just they're just another team

1016
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,399
Speaker 3: where the love affairs going too high, and yeah, could

1017
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 3: they win this one? The pros will be right right

1018
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 3: that this is a huge deal that Aaron Glenn left

1019
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 3: and Ben Johnson get to me and Chad overlooked at

1020
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: We'll own that on Monday if it's true. But as

1021
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 3: you say here right now, I just have a ton

1022
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 3: of confidence in the structure of that Detroit team, and

1023
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 3: this is not the type of game I think they'll

1024
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 3: trip up, and there'll be other matchups they will, but

1025
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 3: I honestly I think they have a big, big offensive

1026
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 3: matchup that they can exploit here in the secondary of

1027
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 3: green Bay. And defensively, I think people are underrat how

1028
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 3: good of a defensive stars they have on this Detroit team.

1029
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 2: Fully healthy.

1030
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 1: I love when you and I are aligned, and it

1031
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 1: gives me confidence. It makes me feel better about myself

1032
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 1: and also means that we can put it in the

1033
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 1: contest and I'm not going to feel as guilty if

1034
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 1: it loses the way you will. About the Tennessee Titans.

1035
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 1: Baltimore is visiting Buffalo at hard Rock Bet, the Ravens

1036
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 1: are now a one point favorite. That's a big move, folks,

1037
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,799
Speaker 1: because when we did the show on Tuesday, they were

1038
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 1: one and a half point underdogs, which means the Baltimore

1039
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 1: Ravens are our rock and a hard place Bet of

1040
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 1: the Week presented by hard Rock This one is grodess

1041
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:26,759
Speaker 1: for our friends at hard Rock Bet. Listen, we liked

1042
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:28,799
Speaker 1: the Ravens when it was one and a half and

1043
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,760
Speaker 1: they were dogs. We don't love bet and the line flip,

1044
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: But the more I look at this game, the more

1045
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm betting a complete team against a

1046
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 1: team that is Josh Allen and everyone else who needs

1047
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 1: to be lifted by Josh Allen.

1048
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you.

1049
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 3: I hate that it flipped, but people say, all wet,

1050
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 3: all we do is bet dogs.

1051
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 2: Chad here, we're approving them wrong.

1052
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 3: We're on the chalk favorite now in the Ravens, and

1053
00:51:57,400 --> 00:51:58,240
Speaker 3: I'm still confident.

1054
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 2: I'm still believing in this play.

1055
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 3: And you know it stinks because there's so many great

1056
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 3: trends we talked about it. When you know Lamar is

1057
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:06,760
Speaker 3: a dog. He is twelve and three against the spreading

1058
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 3: his career as an underdog. You know, we love that

1059
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 3: type of stuff. But another trends I like to look

1060
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 3: at is whenever he's playing on turf.

1061
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 2: And I know it sounds simple, but it's a big deal. Right.

1062
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 3: Turf is fast and that's Lamar's greatest strength, and that's

1063
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 3: what this offense wants to be. They want to be fast,

1064
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:24,879
Speaker 3: and that, you know, to me is something I really

1065
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:26,760
Speaker 3: dove into. Whe It's like, can I find an edge

1066
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 3: about Lamar and when he plays on turf fields and

1067
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 3: there is a long term edge on that, right, I've

1068
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:31,920
Speaker 3: been betting in his whole career.

1069
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:33,880
Speaker 2: I checked my notes.

1070
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 3: He's nineteen and three against the spread when he plays

1071
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 3: an artificial turf nineteen three against the spread. So it's like,

1072
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 3: you know, it sounds stupid, it sounds lazy, it sounds easy,

1073
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 3: but it's factual when he's a different player when he's

1074
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 3: playing on turf, because it is aff a different field

1075
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 3: and the movement's different.

1076
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 2: So that was something that jumped out right away.

1077
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 3: And then you know, when we dove into the matchups

1078
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 3: the Bills team, how they'll exploit this matchup.

1079
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 2: They will just run, run, run the ball.

1080
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 3: And to me, that could work, But at the same time,

1081
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:09,839
Speaker 3: that just means it's gonna be low Clow scoring close game,

1082
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:11,800
Speaker 3: and like, that's exactly where I want to be with Lamar,

1083
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 3: because this is again, this is not the playoffs.

1084
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 2: This is a regular season where Lamar.

1085
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 3: He is clutch, He is a brutal out He is

1086
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 3: a really tough beat and I think you know the

1087
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 3: line movement. We have both the same feeling, me and Chad. Honestly,

1088
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 3: it sounds stupid, people, but we've just been burned so

1089
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: many times when the line flips, it just for some

1090
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 3: reason just burns us.

1091
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna touch the stove again.

1092
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna touch it with me where it's like,

1093
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 3: I know it's hot, I gotta touch it.

1094
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 2: Though.

1095
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:41,479
Speaker 3: I just love this Ravens at this number and below too,

1096
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 3: So at one and a half, I'm still gonna bet it.

1097
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's people out there. You can shop around.

1098
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: There's still some plus one and a half's out there.

1099
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 2: Tease it. You have to at least tease it.

1100
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,879
Speaker 3: Lamar as a dog and teasers fourteen to one as

1101
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,280
Speaker 3: a teaser, So getting him up to seven and a half,

1102
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 3: there is no way he loses this game more than

1103
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 3: a touchdown, horriball week one against the spread twelve and

1104
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 3: five against the spread. So you know, he's just a

1105
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,399
Speaker 3: guy that gets his guys ready prepared for Week one.

1106
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 3: And you know, me and chat both of the Chiefs.

1107
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 3: Last year, we won that bet by a heel, right,

1108
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,720
Speaker 3: that was a really lucky bet. And the Ravens loss.

1109
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:17,600
Speaker 3: I can't see the lightning strike twice here.

1110
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:18,839
Speaker 2: I mean that they.

1111
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 3: Are just so so so fired up about facing this

1112
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 3: Bills team who they lost in the playoffs last year,

1113
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:24,919
Speaker 3: and we talked about it.

1114
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 2: I just I know the Bills.

1115
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 3: It's the last night Orchard Park, last opening game ever

1116
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 3: at that historical ballpark, right was in nineteen seventy three,

1117
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 3: that fucking stadium opened, So I get it's gonna be

1118
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,439
Speaker 3: a historical, over emotional night.

1119
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 2: If you just want to.

1120
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,280
Speaker 3: Take Ravens first half, we always talkt we love Lamar

1121
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,320
Speaker 3: as a first half bet, go for it. But for

1122
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 3: us and contest wise, that's what we're talking here, taking

1123
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:49,919
Speaker 3: them in the contest, taking them as a straight up bet.

1124
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 3: I just love the Ravens and I'm almost positive it's

1125
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:54,280
Speaker 3: locked in a plus one and a half in our contest,

1126
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 3: So I'm almost positive on Sunday morning, I'll be one

1127
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 3: of our bets.

1128
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 1: Well, let's break it down right now. I think on

1129
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 1: Sunday morning, four games that we feel great about after

1130
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:11,399
Speaker 1: this conversation Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, fifty percent of us feel

1131
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 1: great about Tennessee and fifty percent of us are going

1132
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: to go along just for the drama. And then we're

1133
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 1: probably going to be deciding between what are the best lines,

1134
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 1: how things have moved, either between a Las Vegas or

1135
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:33,799
Speaker 1: a Jets or maybe a Commander's, maybe a Seattle. We'll

1136
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 1: see how things are going. Or there might be other

1137
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 1: games that have moved and injuries have caused us to

1138
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 1: rethink things. But I think that's where we stand right now. Again,

1139
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 1: we will lock all this down Sunday morning, eleven am.

1140
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 1: Sharper Square YouTube channel Simon right now as we do

1141
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 1: this show biggest bet of the week so far.

1142
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,280
Speaker 3: Cause I told you I've been betting this for months,

1143
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 3: months and months. I would have to definitely go through

1144
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: my book. I am assuming when I once I go

1145
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 3: through and kind of all my tickets unfortunately probably gonna

1146
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 3: be Dallas. Like I just I know I was hitting

1147
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 3: that number for months, but I'm assuming come Sunday like

1148
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go through it.

1149
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 2: Now.

1150
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,799
Speaker 3: I know I'm getting close with the Ravens, and I'm

1151
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 3: getting really close with the Browns. Like again, Browns were

1152
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 3: six and a half at one point. That's the number

1153
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 3: I've just been hammering for months, hammered at six, kept

1154
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:35,320
Speaker 3: hitting at five and a half.

1155
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 2: I'm still betting at five. So that's that's gonna be

1156
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 2: a gross day when I wake up and uh my

1157
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:43,720
Speaker 2: two biggest bets are gonna be Browns in Dallas.

1158
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, I I do want to say with this,

1159
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,919
Speaker 3: like Chad said these early early weeks, guys, don't don't

1160
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 3: go crazy with your bank all right, pick your spots,

1161
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 3: be smart, very long season money management is literally fifty

1162
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 3: percent of the bets.

1163
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 1: Yep.

1164
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:03,720
Speaker 3: You don't become a professional with that of really strict

1165
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 3: money management. So I'm highly aggressive. I've won big. I

1166
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 3: got the equity to burn this way. If you got

1167
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 3: a small bankroll, you have the power. Pick your spots.

1168
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:15,839
Speaker 3: Don't force bets. I said all the time in the show,

1169
00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 3: me and Ched have to pick five for contest. Most weeks,

1170
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 3: I do three big bets or less. Right, I'm picking

1171
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 3: my spots where i might do a total of spread props.

1172
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 3: But I'm picking my spots. I'm not forcing in five

1173
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 3: against the spread bets. The NFL is the sharpest market

1174
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 3: you want to go and make a living, go back

1175
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 3: college football. There's about three hundred freaking football teams. This

1176
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 3: is a lot different thirty two teams, really stiff market.

1177
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 3: So please people money management, be smart with your money.

1178
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 3: Let's go, dude.

1179
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 1: I'll tell you two stories so you know. I'm working

1180
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 1: on this book and I'm spending time with a lot

1181
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 1: of professional betters, including a guy I was with last

1182
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 1: weekend in Costa Rica. He's a big college football better,

1183
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 1: a big baseball better. And when I say big, I

1184
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 1: mean like from baseball point of view. I think there

1185
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: might be five groups that are competitive with him. And

1186
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: I think for the year he's maybe made one hundred

1187
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 1: bets on baseball. Now, the volume he's betting when he

1188
00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 1: actually makes his bet is huge. He is so selective

1189
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 1: and disciplined, and I sat with him on college football

1190
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 1: Saturday all day. So selective. It is like half point difference,

1191
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 1: point difference. He'll just walk away, does not get sort

1192
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: of lost in the midst the way Simon is talking

1193
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:41,880
Speaker 1: about bank roll management, the best way to make money,

1194
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 1: don't lose money. Simon, what is our money line? Round Robin,

1195
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 1: underdog parlay. Here's what I think Saints Panthers, Lions, Raiders, Cleveland,

1196
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 1: agree or disagree?

1197
00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:06,000
Speaker 3: I'll switch out the Raiders for the Jets.

1198
00:59:07,640 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 1: All right? Saints, Saints Panthers, Jets, Lions, Cleveland. All right, Survivor,

1199
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 1: I think you said it a couple of times. We're

1200
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:29,920
Speaker 1: going with Denver and then sharp versus Square. I'm going Miami.

1201
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 2: You're going Miami. Yeah, I can't use brands against sugar.

1202
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 3: I guess man, I already have so much invested in

1203
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 3: the Titans.

1204
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:44,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm little. I can't. Should I triple down

1205
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 2: on them?

1206
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 1: You know what? Brass balls go with the Titans?

1207
00:59:48,680 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 3: No, I'm going Ravens. I love the Ravens, and it's

1208
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 3: such a it's still a good number. There's still plus

1209
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 3: one and a half's out there. But I'll take the

1210
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 3: hard rock. I'll take the minus one on this show.

1211
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 1: All right. So I'm doing in Miami. I think I

1212
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: got one and a half for one. What's hard rock

1213
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 1: say right now about Miami?

1214
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 2: I'm almost positive they move to uh, they pull it up.

1215
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 2: They move to plus one, yeps.

1216
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 1: One plus one your ravens minus one. All right, folks,

1217
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:20,600
Speaker 1: this has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

1218
01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 1: We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning,

1219
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:26,680
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern as you eavedrop on a very intimate

1220
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic,

1221
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: make utterly human decisions, and regret the rest of the day.

1222
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 1: Then we will be back on sharpper Square YouTube Sunday night,

1223
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: seven thirty pm Eastern to recap all that misery again.

1224
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:44,439
Speaker 1: All these are available on the audio feeds as well

1225
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 1: Sharper Square, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify. Like this video, subscribe

1226
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:53,640
Speaker 1: to the channel, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever

1227
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Don't forget the listener contest. Give

1228
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 1: us five stars, give us some comments. We're going to

1229
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:02,920
Speaker 1: read the best comments on the show. You're going to

1230
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 1: get some swag. Feedback is a gift that helps make

1231
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 1: the show easier to find for everyone. Help you fellow

1232
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:15,600
Speaker 1: listeners out a little bit. Until next time.

1233
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 2: I love you