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If you guys are having 36 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: a great week. We are covering our next series today, 37 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Lakers versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, same format 38 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: that we've been doing the season series, off the top, 39 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: the odds on DraftKings right now, what it looks like 40 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: with the Lakers on offense, what it looks like with 41 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: the Wolves on offense, the swing factors I see in 42 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,239 Speaker 1: the series, and then at the very end, the pick 43 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: that I am making for who will win? You guys 44 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:26,519 Speaker 1: know the drill before we get started. It's subscribed to 45 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: the Hoops and OT YouTube channels. You don't miss any 46 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore 47 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: json LTCs. You guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget 48 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: about podcast feed where you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. 49 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in 50 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: a review. On that front. We also have brand new 51 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook where Jackson's 52 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: doing some great work this year. Make sure you guys 53 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: follow us there, and the last but not least, keep 54 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: dropping mailback questions in the YouTube comments so that we 55 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: can get to them throughout the remainder of the season. 56 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So the season series 57 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: went tow to two between these two teams. Once again, 58 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 1: not a lot of useful data there. Luca only played 59 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: in one of those games, and the Wolves were missing 60 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: basically their entire starting front court at the time, so 61 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: not a whole lot to gather there as Ironically, when 62 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 1: it came to film, I spent a lot of time 63 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: watching the Western Conference Finals today, and a lot of 64 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: footage of Luca attacking specific types of defenders and just 65 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 1: how he looked against all those different types of defenders. 66 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 1: The odds, again, all of our odds are provided by DraftKings. 67 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: The Lakers are a minus two hundred favorite. That line 68 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: has moved a lot. It opened closer to like minus 69 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: one sixty if I remember correctly. I think this is 70 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: a little too big of a line. I think that 71 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: the Lakers are a better team than the Wolves, and 72 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: as I've mentioned, I'm going to pick the Lakers to 73 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: beat the Wolves. I'll explain all the reasons why, but 74 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: I kind of thought it made more sense as a 75 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: gambling line closer down to one sixty. So there's some 76 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: value there on the Wolves the Lakers on offense. As 77 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: far as matchups go, again, I went back this morning 78 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: and I watched every single Luka Danchid shot attempt from 79 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: the Western Conference Finals, and even though Luca is very 80 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: comfortable against Jaden McDaniels, and he has a clear size 81 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: and strength advantage there. Jaden did log a lot of 82 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: good reps over the course of that series, and yeah, 83 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 1: there were good reps from Ant as well. There are 84 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: some good reps from Kyle Anderson, who's no longer on 85 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: the team, But I still think Jaden is probably your 86 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: best bet. So my guess is that we're gonna see 87 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: Jayden on Luca. We'll see Connley start on Austin Reeves. 88 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: That's gonna be a huge part of this matchup is 89 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: whether or not Austin can play Mike Conley off the floor. 90 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a little bit, but I 91 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: do think we'll see a lot of Dante DiVincenzo, a 92 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: lot of Nikhil Alexander Walker in that two spot. I 93 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: think we'll see Anthony Edwards on Rui. I thought he 94 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: might spend some time on Lebron, and I'm not saying 95 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,919 Speaker 1: that he won't, but I think with the job that 96 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: Ant's gonna have on offense in this game, it almost 97 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: makes more sense for him to guard Rui and can 98 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: be a little like Lackaday's agal off ball tracking shooters, 99 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: which could be a little bit of an issue in 100 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: that matchup, but it will save his legs considered versus 101 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: trying to battle Lebron all over the floor. That would 102 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: mean Julius would guard Lebron, which we'll see how that 103 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: would end up going. And then Rudy Gobert on Jackson 104 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: Hayes to start. But again the Lakers will go small, 105 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: something we'll talk about right now. So the go Beart problem, 106 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: I've seen a ton of people on Twitter talking about 107 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: and debating the Lakers and their ability to play Rudy 108 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: Gobert off the floor, and I've seen a lot of 109 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: Timberwolves fans come back and play at point out the 110 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: obvious fact that Rudy Gobert is a very good switch defender, 111 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: and for the record, I agree with Wolves fans about that. 112 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 1: To me, the go beart problem has nothing to do 113 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: about with hunting ISOs against Rudy Gobert. I think if 114 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: the Lakers fall into that trap, it could actually backfire 115 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: on them. Looking back at the Western Conference Finals, we 116 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: didn't really see a lot of Luca attacking Gobert. We 117 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: really only saw that in Game two. The Wolves mostly 118 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: ran rock coverages with Gobert. In that series, they just 119 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: went to the switching in crunch time of Game two, 120 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: and yeah, Luca did score on Gobert once on a 121 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: step back three to win the game. But it's not 122 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: a matchup that I think the Lakers should get obsessed 123 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: with hunting. The advantages that Luca and Lebron have in 124 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: this series are against the smalls, Luca attacking a skinnier 125 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: Jaden McDaniels, attacking into Keile, Alexander Walker, attacking in Anthony 126 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 1: Edwards attacking the smaller defenders that are on the floor. 127 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: Lebron as well. If Lebron, especially if he gets into 128 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: hunting Gobert, I don't think that's gonna go super well. 129 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: So like that is not the right focus point for 130 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: me as far as how Gobert fits into this series. 131 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 1: Where the Lakers can really hurt go Beart is in 132 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 1: his off ball defense. And then on the other end 133 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 1: of the floor. What I mean by off ball defense, 134 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: So when you go to your five out spacing groups, 135 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: so take Jackson Hayes out, put in a either a 136 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: Dorianfinny Smith or a Gabe Vincent, You're gonna see a 137 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: lot of Dorian Finney Smith. That's the line. That's the Lakers' 138 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: clear best five that you're going to see a ton 139 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: of in the series, Austin Lebron, Luco, Dorian Phinney, Smith 140 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: and Ruy Hachimura. All of those guys, if left open, 141 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: are going to hit a high percentage of their threes. 142 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: So with that being the case, I'm more concerned about 143 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: Gobert when Luca and Lebron are hunting Smalls, being put 144 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: in a position where he has to either help at 145 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: the rim where his rim protection value is very high, 146 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: but he's going to have to concede wide open threes, 147 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: or him having to track shooters on the perimeter off 148 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:37,679 Speaker 1: the ball, which dramatically mitigates his defensive value. Either way, 149 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: his rim protection is less valuable if it's conceding open threes, 150 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: and him tracking shooters on the perimeter is way less 151 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: valuable because the Lakers just won't even go that way. 152 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: They'll look to score at the rim or in other 153 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: spots on the floor. And so that's where I look 154 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: at Gobart on defense being minimized by the Lakers five 155 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: out lineups not hunting him and switches mitigating his rim protection. 156 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: And then on the other end of the floor, when 157 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: Gobert is out there, You're going to see a ton 158 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: of defensive game planning from JJ Reddick. When it comes 159 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: to the dynamic of like playing guys off the floor, 160 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: it actually, to me comes down to a little bit 161 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: of Gobert and Conley. If Austin Reeves can score effectively 162 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: against Mike Conley, that Chris Finch goes away from Mike Conley, 163 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: Gobert's offensive value sinks considerably. Mike Conley is the only 164 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: player on the Wolves over this era that's been able 165 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: to successfully weaponize Gobert as an offensive threat. They're timing 166 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 1: in ball screens in the way they go Beart can 167 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 1: free Conley up in screens, the timing of when Gobert 168 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: slips out into his roles. Conley's just kind of chemistry 169 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: with him over the years from when they played together 170 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: on the Jazz that was the dynamic where they could 171 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 1: actually use Gobert as a successful role man. But if 172 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: Austin can score successfully enough against Conley to get Conley 173 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: off the floor to where it's more Nikhil, Alexander Walker 174 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: or Dante DiVincenzo, those guys are much better defensive players, 175 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: and obviously both of them are knocked down three point shooters, 176 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: but those two guys don't have the playmaking talent that 177 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: Conley does. If you can play Conley off the floor 178 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: and space Gobert away from the rim on the other 179 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: end of the floor, then Gobert becomes basically an offensive 180 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: rebounder and a screen setter, and a screen setter that 181 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: can't score on the other side of the screen. And 182 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: so that's where I could see the Gobert problem being 183 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: an issue if they can play Conley off the floor 184 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: and if instead of just hunting him and switches, they 185 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: space him away from the rim in their five out groups. 186 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 1: Right where I could see Gobert being a benefit to 187 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 1: the Wolves defense in this matchup is in the other lineups, 188 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: like when Jordan goodwins on the floor, when Jared Vanderbilt's 189 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 1: on the floor. Jackson as it's a little tricky because 190 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: he's a vertical spacer, and as we saw in the 191 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: Western Conference finals last year, Luca did a really nice 192 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 1: job of kind of baiting Gobert into no man's land 193 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: between Luca and the lie threat so that he could 194 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: get those lobs as he was attacking downhill against his 195 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,959 Speaker 1: matchup and running into Gobert. So it's less about Jackson, 196 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: But when Vanda's on the floor, I think Gobert could 197 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: be devastating. When Jordan Goodwin's on the floor, I think 198 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: Gobert could be really devastating. And then just like all 199 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: of the usual stuff that he does on offense, he's 200 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: just got to be really impactful there. He's got a 201 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: offensive rebound like crazy and set really good screens as 202 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: best as he can. But that's gonna be the dynamic 203 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: in this series that's going to be really interesting. It's 204 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: just how much can Mike Conley play and how effective 205 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: can Rudy Gobert be In the context of the Lakers 206 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: five out groups. Lebron attacking Smalls, I think Anthony Edwards 207 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: on Lebron is going to be an interesting type of 208 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: matchup because ant is so quick laterally and so big 209 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 1: and strong and like a fire hydrant that I think 210 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: he can actually force Lebron to shoot over the top. 211 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: But the other Smalls, Nikhil, Alexander Walker, Mike Conley, Dante DiVincenzo, 212 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: Lebron's gonna have some opportunity to attack there. Lebron's been 213 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: a good amount of time attacking nas Reid in switches, 214 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: in their regular season matchup most recently, and Nas defended 215 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: him really well there. In general, I don't really like 216 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: Lebron attacking centers as much as I like him attacking smalls. 217 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: He did have a game recently, I think it was 218 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: the Dallas game if I remember correctly, where he over 219 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: and over again just started going at I think it 220 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 1: was gafferd down the stretch and getting stuff at the rim. 221 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 1: He's had some good reps there, but I don't think 222 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: it would work particularly well against Nas Reed and Rigobert, 223 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: So keeping an eye on where Lebron looks to attack 224 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: the Timberwolves. Ball pressure I've used an important factor in 225 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: the series. If you guys remember in their last matchup, 226 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: the one that Luca played in, the Lakers really controlled 227 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: the early part of the game, but there was a 228 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: second half run for Minnesota in there where they just 229 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: picked up full court and wore down Austin, Lebron and Luca, 230 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: and they lost control of the game for a little bit. 231 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 1: They did regain control in the fourth quarter, but there 232 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: was a stretch there on the game chart where you 233 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: saw that lead shrinking and shrinking and shrinking, and it 234 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: was a lot of that ball pressure from the Timberwolves, 235 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 1: forcing turnovers, getting out in transition. I'm a little worried 236 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: for the Lakers about the Wolves overall athleticism and physicality, 237 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: not so much their size. Everyone talks about like how 238 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: much bigger the Wolves are than the Lakers. I actually 239 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 1: don't see them as much of a bigger team, because 240 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 1: they're bigger at every other position, Like if you're looking 241 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:29,319 Speaker 1: at guard, like Austin's bigger than Mike Conley, Luca's bigger 242 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: than Anthony Edwards. Ruy Hachimura is bigger than Jayden McDaniels. 243 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 1: Lebron James is every bit as big, if not a 244 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: little bit bigger than Julius Randall. It's really just the 245 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,079 Speaker 1: center position and when they play two bigs that they 246 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: have a little bit of a size advantage in the 247 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: front court. But I don't look at it as a 248 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 1: size advantage to me. It's more of just like an 249 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: overall athleticism advantage than Minnesota has that can manifest with 250 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: their ball pressure and with them making like really hard closeouts. 251 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: That spooks some of the Laker role players if Ruy 252 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: gets a little spooked, if you know Dorian Phinney Smith 253 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:08,959 Speaker 1: gets spooked, if some of these guys in their spot 254 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: up situations just don't look comfortable because of the Minnesota closeouts. 255 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: That's where it could get a little tricky, and Minnesota 256 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: could start getting away with devoting more attention towards Lebron 257 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 1: and Lucas. So keep an eye on just the Laker 258 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: role players and how comfortable they are in this particular matchup. 259 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: So keys for the Lakers. When the Lakers are on offense, Luca, Lebron, 260 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: Austin handling ball pressure, not turning the ball over, punishing 261 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: smalls instead of hunting bigs, and switches again in one 262 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: last note, Well, actually we'll get to that when we 263 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: get to the Wolves. And then three their role players 264 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: just being confident and comfortable as the intensity picks up 265 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: defensively from the Wolves. Keys for the Wolves, ball pressure 266 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: like crazy, Gotta try to disrupt their offense, slow down 267 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: their offense, force turnovers you can get out transition. And 268 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: then secondly, I would switch with their fives again when 269 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: they ran all that drop in the Western Conference finals. 270 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 1: It allowed Luca to constantly operate with a size advantage 271 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: and to get those kind of baked in driving lanes 272 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: that he gets from ball screens. I would switch with 273 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 1: my fives with Nasried especially, but also with Gobert, because 274 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: that is where you can bait Lebron and Luca into 275 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: making the mistake of strictly hunting fives. We've seen that 276 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 1: happen before. They did it against Al Horford and the 277 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: Celtics game and at backfired. That is where you have 278 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: a game plan advantage. You can bait Lebron and Luca 279 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: into some bad process by switching with your fives, moving 280 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: to the wolves on the offensive side of the floor. 281 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: JJ's defensive game plan in the regular season with Ant 282 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: was similar to what he used against all the athletic 283 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: guards that they faced. He would funnel them towards the 284 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: sideline with a strong side zone, meaning the defender who's 285 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: guarding the next closest player on the weakside is skipping 286 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: all the way to the other side of the paint, 287 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: basically just waiting for Aunt. There were some downsides there 288 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: because it had a baked in runway. As you open 289 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: up your stants, Ant can really just drive and when 290 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: he gets ahead of steam, it doesn't really matter if 291 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: someone's in front of him. If it's not a rim 292 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: protector like Ant struggles with rimp protect at the rim. 293 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: He doesn't struggle with really anything else at the rim. 294 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: So one of the things I think JJ will do is, 295 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 1: after watching the game tape from that game, I think 296 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: he'll do a little bit more forward aggression. So with 297 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: that strong side zone, I think he'll bring the defender 298 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: further up, and I think he'll close the stance just 299 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: a little bit more, try to make it for the 300 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: on ball guy to try to make it so that 301 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: ant just can't cleanly get a runway to take off. 302 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: But in general, I think it's gonna be like literally 303 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: a chess match type of game between JJ and Anthony Edwards. 304 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: A lot of mixing up of coverages, that strong side zone. 305 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: I talked about, blitzes, high drops, gapping in ISOs, late 306 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: double teams, after he puts the ball on the floor, 307 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see a ton of that stuff 308 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: geared towards targeting ants, inconsistent playmaking ANTS. Playmaking is arguably 309 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: the biggest swing factor in this series. If he can 310 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: take JJ's game plan and use it as a consistent 311 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: method to get the Lakers in rotation, they can win 312 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: this series. There as long as they get the ball 313 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: out to an advantage and they incrementally break down the 314 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 1: Lakers defense with playmaking, they can win this series. It's 315 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: just not a strong suit for this team. Aggregate playmaking 316 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: falls off of a cliff when Mike Conley's off the floor. 317 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: It is not a strength of this team. But if 318 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: they can swing that factor in their favor, it could 319 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 1: be the difference. Julius post mismatch hunting, I hope the 320 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: Lakers start with Lebron on him instead of Ruy, but 321 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to. I think they're gonna 322 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: start Lebron on Jaden McDaniels. My guess is the matchups 323 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: look like this. I think we'll see Ruey on Julius. 324 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: I think we'll see Austin on Ant. I think we'll 325 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: see Luca on Conley. I think we'll see Lebron on 326 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: Jaden McDaniels. And I think we'll see Jackson Hayes on 327 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert. Now, when Dorian Phinney Smith comes in and 328 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: they go to that core lineup, I think Dorian Phinney 329 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: Smith will go to Ant. I think Austin will move 330 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: over to the off guard, whether that's Conley or Dante 331 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: or Nikiel and then I think Luco will guard either 332 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: Jaden or Rudy Gobert, but that's going to leave Ruey 333 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: on Julie, and Julius has had his way with Ruy 334 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 1: over the years. As a matter of fact, I can 335 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: almost guarantee you that Julius Randall at some point in 336 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: the time since Sunday has thought to himself, Ruy Hachamura 337 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: cannot guard me. He has had a lot of success 338 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: in that matchup over the years. Ruy struggles specifically with 339 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 1: holding his ground and understanding that he has a huge 340 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: strength advantage. Ruy's a big, strong dude, and sometimes he 341 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: just doesn't use that on defense. And I think Julius 342 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 1: has a gift for like finding those weak points in 343 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: a defender's defensive stance and just attacking it with power 344 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: and dislodging the player and getting to his spots on 345 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: the floor. Julius is a better passer than Anthony Edwards, 346 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: so I am curious to see how much doubling jj 347 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: Reddick will do there. He may go an opposite route 348 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: and go, let's see if Julius just plays hero ball 349 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 1: on all series and see if that actually benefits us 350 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: more than trying to send extra defenders there. I think 351 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: that'll be interesting. Jaden McDaniels is going to be a 352 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 1: huge swing factor in the series, obviously, his shooting ability, 353 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: his ability to knock down the open threes. He's been 354 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: shooting much better post All Star Break, but the Lakers 355 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 1: are going to concede some shots to him. His crashing 356 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: and cutting. He can be a really devastating athlete going 357 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: towards the rim that the Lakers are going to have 358 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: to contend with. Nas Reed was actually a non factor 359 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: in the Lakers game that Luca actually played in. Lebron 360 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: guarded him and Lebron did an excellent job on him 361 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: and basically removed him from the game. Lebron will likely 362 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: get that job again in this series at times. That'll 363 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 1: be an interesting matchup to watch keys from Minnesota when 364 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,400 Speaker 1: they're on offense. A's playmaking, as we mentioned earlier, got 365 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: to take advantage of the game plan as an opportunity 366 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: to get the defense in rotation nas Reed, Julius Randall, 367 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: and Dante DiVincenzo supporting scoring. This is a Lakers team 368 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 1: that's been scoring a lot of points lately. They're gonna 369 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: need guys that can score the basketball. Jady McDaniel's three 370 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: point shooting again. He shot well after the All Star break, 371 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 1: but that's going to be something he's going to have 372 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: to continue to do really, really well. And can Rudy 373 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 1: Gobert do enough damage as a screener as an offensive 374 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: rebounder to stay a net positive with some of his 375 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: defensive value getting mitigated by the Lakers five out groups. 376 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 1: That's going to be an important factor in the series 377 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: for the Lakers. Game plan discipline. When the Lakers let 378 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: go of the rope a little bit on defense, they 379 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: look super unathletic and the bottom can fall out for him. 380 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 1: That's why they look so bad against bad teams after 381 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: the Luca trade. That's why they're susceptible to some really 382 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: long runs for the opponent as they let go of 383 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: their defensive focus. Them staying focused on defense, to the 384 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: game plan and doing their job on a possession by 385 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: possession basis is vital to their ability to guard this team. 386 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: Aggressive coverages, pray on Minnesota's lack of playmaking talent forced 387 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 1: them to beat you with the pass, and then lastly, 388 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: the boxing out and gang rebounding against Gobar and Jaden McDaniels. 389 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of offensive rebounds that 390 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: Gobar and Jaden are going to be going for. It's 391 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: going to be about multiple efforts from multiple guys getting 392 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: bodies him to box out, and then other dudes come 393 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: and flying in against better athletes to try to meet 394 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 1: them up top. When you box them out on the ground, 395 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 1: they can't jump. When they can't jump, that allows another 396 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: player to beat them over the top to the rebound. 397 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: It's going to be a team effort to survive on 398 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: the glass. Swing factors in this series Jaden McDaniels defense 399 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 1: on Luca. One of the biggest factors in the Western 400 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 1: Conference Finals last year was the simple fact that Jaden 401 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: was too skinny to manage Luca. He did log some 402 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 1: good reps, but overall in this series, Luca was very 403 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: comfortable and it basically caused the base defensive scheme for 404 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 1: Minnesota in their pick and roll coverage to crack and 405 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 1: to not work. That's going to be important factor in 406 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: the series is is Jaden gonna hold up better against 407 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 1: Luca than he did last year? Ants playmaking. As we've 408 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: mentioned multiple times in the show, I'm gonna say role 409 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 1: players shooting for both teams. Specifically, for the Wolves, it's 410 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 1: gonna be off ball shooting from guys like Jaden McDaniels 411 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 1: and guys like Julius Randall. But for the Lake it's 412 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: more about good shooters who are proven shooters, but that 413 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: might struggle a little bit under the intensity of the 414 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,199 Speaker 1: environment as the Wolves are so athletic. So I'm just 415 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: gonna say role player shooting for both teams. Julius Randall 416 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: is a player that has played very poorly in the 417 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 1: playoffs in his career. I think it's a little more 418 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: complicated than that because of some of the injuries he's 419 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: been dealing with or recovering from in some of those situations. 420 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: But Julius Randalls play in this series. Him getting up 421 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 1: to the player he was when he was an All 422 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: NBA guy could be a huge factor for the Wolves. 423 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,479 Speaker 1: And then Lebron. This is a big physical defense that 424 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: Minnesota has. Lebron killed the Wolves in their last regular 425 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 1: season matchup. I think he had thirty three points and 426 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: seventeen rebounds. Lebron's ability to leverage himself to that extent 427 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 1: is going to be a big factor in this series. 428 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: If you look back at that at that point in time, 429 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: that was before Lebron's groin injury, when he was playing 430 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,959 Speaker 1: like a literally like an MVP candidate every single night, 431 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: really hasn't gotten to that level since the level since 432 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: he came back from the injury. A lesser version of 433 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: Lebron could obviously be a swing factor in Minnesota's favorite 434 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: A favor as we head into the series. My pick, 435 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: I think this is a very favorable matchup for the Lakers. 436 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 1: I think Minnesota's greatest defensive strength, which is the combination 437 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: of perimeter defense, talent and rim protection, is neutralized by 438 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 1: Luca because none of those perimeter defenders can really bother Luca. 439 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: And then on the other side of the floor, I 440 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 1: think the strength of the Laker defense, which is game planning, 441 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 1: loading up, and swarming, lines up with the weakness of 442 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: the Wolves, which is their playmaking talent and just their 443 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 1: overall decision making. So as I see on both ends 444 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,440 Speaker 1: of the floor, the strengths and weakness line up, this 445 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: is going to be my first five game prediction. I 446 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: think the Lakers are going to beat the Timberwolves in 447 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 1: five games in this series, So we'll see what ends 448 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: up happening. Obviously a lot that can go either way, 449 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: but this is a matchup that I think lines up 450 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: really well for the Lakers. All right, guys, that's all 451 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 1: I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you 452 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We'll be 453 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: back with our two seven matchups tomorrow. I will see 454 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: you guys there. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate 455 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would 456 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: actually be really helpful for us if you guys would 457 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 1: take a second and leave a rating and a review. 458 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if 459 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: you could take a minute to do that, I'd really 460 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: appreciate it. The volume