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Speaker 1: The biggest gap in sports is a difference between the

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Speaker 1: winner and the loser of the Super Bowl. The winner,

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Speaker 1: you're world champion, You'll never forget it. The loser, they

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Speaker 1: just get thrown back in the pile.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go the test throwing into spectacular cat.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 2: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win.

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Speaker 3: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make the money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you wanna pull?

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented

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Speaker 2: by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Chris Raybond of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network, and this is your Super Bowl fifty eight

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Speaker 2: betting preview. We're gonna build our Super Bowl Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: of course, with the help of my co host, the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky stuck it up. Congrats

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Speaker 2: on the win this year. No way I can catch

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Speaker 2: you in a contest. Are up nine? So what's going on?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Brother? Depressing Conference Championship weekend? For me,

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Speaker 3: it was a great NFL year. Luck fart Andoy's I

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Speaker 3: have Lamar MVP at least will cash, but it was

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Speaker 3: so close built and then Ravens Mahomes takes them both

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Speaker 3: out and look, I'm mainly more upset for others who followed.

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Speaker 3: Also shout out to z Flowers for getting a personal

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Speaker 3: foul so you get two more catches to go over

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Speaker 3: and then fumbling on the fifth one at the goal line,

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Speaker 3: which was fun. Look, I've been betting for a long time,

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Speaker 3: you know, losing NFL seasons. I can't really complain. I've

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Speaker 3: had futures that have come close. I didn't hedge anything.

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Speaker 3: I've hit a bit close the last couple of years,

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Speaker 3: but I've hit in the past. It's just the way

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Speaker 3: that it happened is what depressed me the most. The

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Speaker 3: fact that the Ravens they galaxy brain themselves. It was

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Speaker 3: just a depressing way to go out and that that

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Speaker 3: was not who that team was all year. So credit

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Speaker 3: to the Chiefs. Yeah, another game. I thought the forty

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Speaker 3: nine ers for a second shat week up really fortunate

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Speaker 3: to escape, which doesn't happen often. You don't really see

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Speaker 3: teams get lucky back to back playoff games to get

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Speaker 3: to the super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, they.

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Speaker 3: Pulled that one out, and I think it was more

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Speaker 3: about Detroit making mistakes. But here we are a lot

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Speaker 3: of little deja vus. It's time to move on and

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Speaker 3: try to find some winners for the super Bowl. Or

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Speaker 3: were your quick thoughts on either game?

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Speaker 2: Totally agree on Detroit when they went forward on that

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Speaker 2: fourth down, and I know it was a you know,

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Speaker 2: solid play call just to drop past, but I looked

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Speaker 2: and I said, listen, you're, what twenty minutes away from

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Speaker 2: the super Bowl. You've never been there as a franchise.

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Speaker 2: I get your identity, but go up three scores. Make

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Speaker 2: San Francisco have to score three times, maybe even four,

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Speaker 2: you know, because you know two touchdowns at a field

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Speaker 2: go just ties it, well, you don't score at all,

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Speaker 2: because that essentially make San Francisco be perfect. And instead,

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Speaker 2: you know, it didn't go their way, and that's that,

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Speaker 2: you know. I don't hate it, but I just kind

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Speaker 2: of kind of felt like that was that was the

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Speaker 2: turning point. And then Baltimore, I mean, yeah, that killed

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Speaker 2: me from a I think I went zero to four

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Speaker 2: in that game. It's just you can't ever guarantee that

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Speaker 2: a team is going to do what makes sense, and

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Speaker 2: you know, I just was surprised because I thought that,

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Speaker 2: you know, Harbaugh one of the best coaches I've been

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Speaker 2: there before. I know, Todd Munky was hired to kind

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Speaker 2: of get away from some of the stuff Roman did,

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Speaker 2: but a lot of that was probably on Monkey too,

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Speaker 2: And you know, I'm sure some of it's on Lamar.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm sure he has chances to checking in

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Speaker 2: out of runs at the line. Yeah, that's something we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about for the Super Bowl because I think that's

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Speaker 2: an interesting dynamic when when you start talking about Mahomes

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Speaker 2: and then Purdy, how I think Mahomes has evolved and

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Speaker 2: you know, does Perdy have that same type of freedom

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Speaker 2: has he? Does he have that evolution because you know,

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Speaker 2: both run defenses are the weak points in this matchup.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, just inexplicable from Baltimore. I mean, the fact

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Speaker 2: that Justice Hill played seventy percent of the snow Apps

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Speaker 2: was absurd. You know, just Lamar continues to sleep walk

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Speaker 2: through some of the most important games of his life.

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Speaker 2: So let me set up the line first before we

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Speaker 2: jump into it. As we record this at bet MGM,

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Speaker 2: the Niners are favored by two. The total is forty

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Speaker 2: seven and a half the line has generally been two

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Speaker 2: for the Niners. We've seen a little bit of movement

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Speaker 2: to two and a half at points, we saw some

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Speaker 2: more money for now is coming in on the on

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Speaker 2: the Niners or more big money. The public has been

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Speaker 2: more on the Chiefs. I'll talk about that, and let's

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Speaker 2: talk some long shots, some MVP touchdowns, all that stuff.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, let's let's get into the final Sunday six

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Speaker 2: pack of the year, the Super Bowl fifty eight Sunday

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Speaker 2: six pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday

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Speaker 2: six pack. All right. For my first pick of the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl fifty eight Sunday six pack, I'm rolling with

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Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs plus two against the Niners. And

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Speaker 2: there are a bunch of different factors why I like

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs in this game despite them being a dog.

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Speaker 2: And there's also I think a lot of misinformation or

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Speaker 2: a lot of people kind of because the public is

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Speaker 2: on the Chiefs for the most part that I've seen,

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Speaker 2: But I don't see a lot of people kind of

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Speaker 2: breaking down why beyond oh, well, you know, Mahomes has

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Speaker 2: been was good enough in the first half last week,

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Speaker 2: you know, so I saw all I need to see.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to bet against Mahomes as a dog,

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Speaker 2: YadA YadA, but I do think that this Kansas City

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Speaker 2: offense enters this matchup a little bit underrated even, and

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Speaker 2: that sounds crazy to say with the you know, probably

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Speaker 2: the second greatest quarterback, maybe the greatest one. It's all

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Speaker 2: sudden done, ever, but here's why I think that this

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Speaker 2: chief offense is overrated, and well, I think it can

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Speaker 2: have success against the Niners defense. So I think the

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Speaker 2: big thing here, first of all, for me, that actually

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Speaker 2: made a you know, a dent in or change the

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Speaker 2: you know, how I rate the Chiefs in their offense

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Speaker 2: is something we saw last week that we really haven't

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Speaker 2: seen all year and it didn't really go to notice

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Speaker 2: because the Chiefs only put up seventeen points, didn't do

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Speaker 2: anything in the second half. But Canarius Tony, Nicole Hardman,

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Speaker 2: sky Moore, Justin Ross played a combined one snap excluding

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Speaker 2: Neil downs. Obviously, Tony was a scratch again. Hardman went

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Speaker 2: from being in on you know, forty to forty five

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Speaker 2: percent of the pass plays the first two postseason games

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Speaker 2: to one snap. Sky Moore wasn't activated off and Justin

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Speaker 2: Ross was active, but only played on the kneel down,

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Speaker 2: So why is that such a big factor. You know,

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Speaker 2: these guys are like ancillary receivers. Well, you're gonna kind

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Speaker 2: of say, well, this has been a down year for

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs offense. They're not as good. Maybe Tyreek, No,

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Speaker 2: Tyreek is finally starting to catch up to them. Mahomes

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Speaker 2: hasn't been as good. All that stuff. Well, those four

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Speaker 2: guys Tony Hardman, sky Moore, justin Rosss have been incredibly

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Speaker 2: awful this year, to the point where the Chiefs EPA

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Speaker 2: offensive changes completely when you kind of remove these guys

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Speaker 2: from the equation, which, oh it's more than drops, it's Franklin.

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Speaker 2: Is just fascinating to me just how bad this this

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Speaker 2: quartet has been terrible. Now Here are some of the highlights.

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Speaker 2: Canarius Tony fifty plays for him drawn up between targets

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Speaker 2: and rushing attempts. Two hundred yards from those plays four

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Speaker 2: yards of play. That's awful. McCall Hardman. Excluding Week eighteen

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Speaker 2: when everyone rested and he played every snap and Mahomes

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Speaker 2: didn't start. Mccol Hardman, nineteen plays have been drawn up

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Speaker 2: for him forty four yards two point three yards a

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Speaker 2: play passer ratings. Let's talk passer ratings. We know Mahomes

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Speaker 2: usually well over one hundred canarios, Tony sixty eight, sixty

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Speaker 2: eight passer rating on an average up to target under three.

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Speaker 2: You're supposed to be super efficient. There's supposed to be

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Speaker 2: no turnovers, nothing like that. That's the best Raw sixty

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Speaker 2: seven point six, sky Moore fifty three to five, McCole

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Speaker 2: Hardman forty four to three. If you total all the

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Speaker 2: mistakes up, eleven drops charted at PFF. I'm sure different,

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Speaker 2: you know, charting sites have different numbers, but eleven drops.

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Speaker 2: Seven interceptions. Remember Mahomes only threw fourteen picks this year,

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Speaker 2: you know, I mean that was a lot for him.

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Speaker 2: But seven interceptions between these four guys on just one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twelve targets, So just one sixth of essentially

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Speaker 2: Kansas City's passing attempts. Half of the interception or fumbles,

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Speaker 2: a couple penalties, a muff punt, two absolutely essentially game

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Speaker 2: losing plays. When you talk about Tony's picked tip on

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Speaker 2: the Lions game twenty one to twenty, the chief loss

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Speaker 2: and then the jump off sides on the Buffalo game

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Speaker 2: cost them that game. Also two of sixteen in terms

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Speaker 2: of converting red zone targets into touchdowns, less than half

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Speaker 2: of the rate for every other Kansas City pass catcher.

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Speaker 2: And now, if you look at Mahomes's numbers, which this

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Speaker 2: is where it really opened my eyes, because remember, Mahomes

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Speaker 2: only has ninety five targets. These guys overall, they have

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve a couple of those game with

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Speaker 2: the backup, but Mahomes has ninety five targets those four

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Speaker 2: guys combined. If you remove them, which without even replacing,

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Speaker 2: because usually if you remove you know, wide receiver numbers

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Speaker 2: from a quarterback, his numbers are gonna get worse because

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Speaker 2: wide receivers are getting the most yardage. You remove those

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Speaker 2: four guys, mahomes yards per attempt goes from seven point

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Speaker 2: zero to seven point five, which is a massive jump.

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Speaker 2: And remember you know yardage per attempt efficiency pass in

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Speaker 2: the past game is directly correlated to point differentially, so

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Speaker 2: seven to seven and a half. And then we know turnovers.

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Speaker 2: You know, you win the turnover about or you win

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Speaker 2: about seventy five eighty percent of the time. Mahomes interception

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Speaker 2: rate goes from two percent even to one point one

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Speaker 2: six percent it nearly cuts in half. I'll put it

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Speaker 2: this way. Mahomes has gone the longest stretch of his

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Speaker 2: career without a turnover worthy play according to PFF's charting.

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Speaker 2: Right now, he's still in the midst of that. His

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Speaker 2: touchdown percentage also goes up, so literally, essentially, the two

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Speaker 2: most important components to winning football games, pass game efficiency

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Speaker 2: and turnovers have a direct correlation to these four terrible receivers.

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Speaker 2: That so one combined snap last week in the most

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Speaker 2: important game of the year. That's the first thing you

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Speaker 2: Also when you're looking at the Chiefs and saying, Okay,

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Speaker 2: their offense kind of kind of mid this year, Well,

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Speaker 2: I don't believe in just you know, looking at like, oh,

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Speaker 2: well they did good in the first half last week.

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Speaker 2: That's just one. It's like that's Recncy biased, right, That's

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Speaker 2: and you're just discounting half the game for no reason

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Speaker 2: because they didn't do anything in the second half. But

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Speaker 2: I am a proponent of you have to find the

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Speaker 2: relevant sample, and you're not always going to find the

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Speaker 2: relevant sample as is. Sometimes you have to dig deeper

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Speaker 2: and kind of put things together like I'm kind of doing.

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Speaker 2: You know, Okay, what happens if we remove these receivers

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Speaker 2: who aren't going to play. So Travis Kelcey, remember he

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Speaker 2: missed Week one, he's on the field for you know,

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Speaker 2: usually over ninety percent of the past plays. Averaged just

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Speaker 2: a seventy six percent route participation rate through the buy

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Speaker 2: didn't even hit ninety percent in a game until Week eleven.

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Speaker 2: But we know what he can do in the postseason.

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Speaker 2: He scored eighteen touchdowns in seventeen games with Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: Obviously benefit from two weeks before the Super Bowl as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he just looks for I mean, you could just

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Speaker 2: tell just by watching him. He just looks he's ready

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Speaker 2: to go. So you know, the talk of his demise

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Speaker 2: was premature. But Rashi Rice another key component to this

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Speaker 2: offense and really the reason that none of these other

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Speaker 2: guys that I mentioned have to play anymore. Remember rookie

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Speaker 2: came into Week one and you know read generally not

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Speaker 2: gonna end my homes even you know they're gonna kind

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Speaker 2: of not always going to trust rookies right off the bat.

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Speaker 2: So Rashi Rice, who's a ninety percent guy, now averages

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Speaker 2: just a thirty five percent route participation rate through the

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Speaker 2: first six weeks sixty percent up until week thirteen. So

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Speaker 2: even once he started playing more, he was still you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of getting snaps akin to a third receiver. But

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Speaker 2: this guy is top five in yards per route against

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Speaker 2: zone coverage on the year. And remember San Francisco heavy

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Speaker 2: zone team, like Travis Kelce catches over eighty percent of

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Speaker 2: his targets and you're talking about one of the most

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Speaker 2: if not the most accurate passer in the game. So

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Speaker 2: you've replaced those crappy receivers who are just losing games

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Speaker 2: for you, but a guy like Rice who has been

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Speaker 2: a real downfield or his average at the target is

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Speaker 2: around five. But what that does is, combined with Kelsey,

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Speaker 2: you now have two just elite hyper efficient you know

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Speaker 2: underneath to intermediate options from a homes to replace all

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Speaker 2: these gadget guys that it just wasn't working out for.

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Speaker 2: And then on top of that, Isaiah Pachecko even missed

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Speaker 2: a few games this season. And if you look at

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Speaker 2: Pachecko's numbers versus the rest of Kansas City running backs

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Speaker 2: that carried the football, there's also you know, you probably

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Speaker 2: have to bump up Kansas City's offense because when you

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Speaker 2: look at Pachecko. He's averaging four and a half yards

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Speaker 2: of carry. He's getting a run of fifteen or more

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Speaker 2: about five percent of the time. Other Kansas City running

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Speaker 2: backs carried the ball one hundred and twenty three times

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Speaker 2: this year for just three point four yards per carry,

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Speaker 2: just three runs of fifteen or more. So no explosiveness,

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Speaker 2: no efficiency. So you got to bump Kansas City up

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Speaker 2: for that too. So you put all those things together,

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Speaker 2: and this Kansasity offense I think is underrated in the market.

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Speaker 2: It's a tough you know, there's a lot of different

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Speaker 2: moving parts that you kind of have to put together

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Speaker 2: to really get an accurate handicap of this offense. But

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Speaker 2: then you start looking at the matchup. Okay, San Francisco's

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Speaker 2: defense generally has been good this year, but we know

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Speaker 2: a couple of things about them. Number one, their run defense.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's talking about the Chiefs. If you remove you know,

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Speaker 2: garbage time, which you shouldn't really be looking at running

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Speaker 2: back rushing stats in garbage time. You remove garbage time,

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Speaker 2: San Francisco is actually worse in a lot of run

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Speaker 2: defense metrics than the Kansas City Chiefs, and especially in

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Speaker 2: these playoffs. But also they struggle with mobile quarterbacks because

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Speaker 2: their main advantage on defense, and it has been like

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Speaker 2: this for years now, is they can rush for and

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Speaker 2: drop seven in the coverage. Well, when you have a

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Speaker 2: quarterback that can move around, that throws off the mat

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Speaker 2: a little bit because now you have this extra offensive

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Speaker 2: player to account for. And we o Mahomes and the

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Speaker 2: playoffs scramble rate goes up. He's averaging about seven yards

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Speaker 2: per game more career postseason than regular season. His yards

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Speaker 2: for carry goes up, and that's even with some very

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Speaker 2: long meal downs and his touchdowns rate more than doubles.

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Speaker 2: So Mahomes, you know he's gonna move around, and you

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Speaker 2: mentioned it. He's playing some of the best ball of

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Speaker 2: his life. He's learned to be more patient in the pocket,

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Speaker 2: but he also knows exactly when to take off. He's

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Speaker 2: not forcing any throws, but he's looking for, you know,

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Speaker 2: his high, high percentage guys, which he has two of

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Speaker 2: now underneath because when she Rice averaging just under six

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Speaker 2: catches a game, seventy yards a game since Week six,

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Speaker 2: and that the other effect of that is because you

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Speaker 2: have Rice playing every snap, because you have Kelsey as

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Speaker 2: another week underneath guy, and of course, you know Pacheco

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Speaker 2: would be the other underneath guy. But what that's done

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Speaker 2: is when he stopped playing hard and he'stopped playing Tony

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Speaker 2: all these other guys. You have Watson and you have

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Speaker 2: father Scaling on the outside. So if teams sell out

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Speaker 2: and they want to you want to double Kelsey and

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Speaker 2: you want a double Rice or something to that extent. Well,

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Speaker 2: now he has two field stretchers, one on each side.

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Speaker 2: And we know Mahomes is one of the best deep

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Speaker 2: ball throws, one of the most accurate deep both throwers

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Speaker 2: and Watson and MVS both can be man covered. That's

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Speaker 2: kind of their specialty, as you would expect from field stretchers.

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Speaker 2: Watson just point seven yards per rout against zone, but

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Speaker 2: two point three against man. It's very good. And MVS

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Speaker 2: point six five yards per out against zone. Uh, one

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Speaker 2: point six against man. So he more than doubles uh.

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Speaker 2: And so that's kind of when he's in. Mahomes is

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Speaker 2: trusting him more so if you get San Francisco out

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Speaker 2: of its zone, because you know Mahomes can just dice

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Speaker 2: that up. You have a top five guy and Rice

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Speaker 2: against zone. Well, if you get San Francisco out of

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Speaker 2: that now Mahomes has, you know, two guys on the

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Speaker 2: outside that can beat man coverage. And also now you're

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Speaker 2: making San Francisco's defense play a little bit left handed

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Speaker 2: because if you look at their numbers, when they are

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Speaker 2: playing man coverage on the season, their adjusted netyards and

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Speaker 2: attempt increases a whole half a yard, which again is

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Speaker 2: pretty massive, especially when you're talking about point differential. Their

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Speaker 2: touchdown rate more it quadruples goes from one point five

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Speaker 2: percent to six point seven percent allowed when they go

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Speaker 2: from zone demand and in the postseason it's been even

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Speaker 2: more pronounced. They are giving up about five point three

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Speaker 2: adjusted netyards per attempt when they're in zone coverage. When

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Speaker 2: they're in man that goes to seven point nine. So

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Speaker 2: this Kansas City offense, I think can put some pressure

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Speaker 2: on this Niner defense. Mahomes has been a lot better

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Speaker 2: at checking in their runs, and I do think they're

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Speaker 2: vulnerable on the ground. But let's flip it around. Let's

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Speaker 2: look at the Niners offense now, because we know this

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Speaker 2: Kansas City defense has been a week but when you

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Speaker 2: look at San Francisco's offense, they've been excellent too, especially

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Speaker 2: when everyone's healthy. But the one thing about kind of

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Speaker 2: breaking out San Francisco and saying, well, okay, as long

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Speaker 2: as Trent and Debo are healthy, you know this team

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Speaker 2: has been unstoppable. There's no way to stop them. Well, yes,

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Speaker 2: it just so happened if they got injured all at

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Speaker 2: the same time and in some tough matchups. But I

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Speaker 2: also think there's something that here that the Chiefs can

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Speaker 2: kind of replicate that is going to give Party trouble.

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Speaker 2: And obviously, you know this is mahomes what four Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl Uh, this is parties first, you know, But beyond that,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't just that in those in the four losses,

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Speaker 2: which are Cleveland, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Baltimore. Uh, it wasn't just that. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Debo and Trent were oute. So you know, the offense

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Speaker 2: was less efficient, which you would expect them would be understandable,

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Speaker 2: but Rock Party also made a lot more just flat

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Speaker 2: out mistakes in those games. Nine of his twelve picks

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Speaker 2: came in those four losses. Eleven of his twenty one

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Speaker 2: some more than half of his turnover worthy plays came

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Speaker 2: in those four matchups. And you know, besides the injuries,

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Speaker 2: what else do these four matchups have in common? And

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Speaker 2: also have in common with the Chiefs in this matchup

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Speaker 2: elite defensive minds at coordinator. Cleveland has Jim Schwartz. Minnesota

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Speaker 2: has Brian Flores, and we've talked ad nauseum about the

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Speaker 2: impact he's had. Cincinnati lou Ana Rumo famously had the

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Speaker 2: game plan of his life to stop Mahomes from going

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Speaker 2: to another Super Bowl a couple of years ago. And

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Speaker 2: Baltimore Mike McDonald, you know, one of the hottest coaching

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Speaker 2: hires on the market, and a team that actually did

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Speaker 2: shut out Mahomes for the entire in the Chiefs for

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Speaker 2: in the entire second half, which I you know, still

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Speaker 2: relatively impressive. Well, Steve Spagnoah just as good as all

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Speaker 2: these guys. And when you look at playoffs, Spagnola, I

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Speaker 2: mean it might even be better. Remember this is the

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Speaker 2: guy that came up with the game plan that shut

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Speaker 2: down Tom Brady and when they were undefeated in O

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Speaker 2: seven and now he finally has defensive talent to work with.

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Speaker 2: So that brings me to what I think is going

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Speaker 2: to give people the most cause about this about picking

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. If if people do have pause, and that's

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Speaker 2: the batchup in a run game, you know, San Francisco

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Speaker 2: at McCaffrey going up against the Chiefs. Well, we know

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Speaker 2: run is less important in the past. Like that's just

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Speaker 2: the analytically, you know, that's what the analytics said. We

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Speaker 2: know that, right, So let's break down Kansas City for

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Speaker 2: worst rushing games this year. One to to Buffalo, but

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Speaker 2: they hold Buffalo to just one hundred and eighty six

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Speaker 2: passing yards. One fifty seven to Vegas in week sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Also recent, but they held Vegas to forty eight passing yards.

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Speaker 2: One fifty three to Denver in week eight, but they

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Speaker 2: held Denver to eighty seven passing yards. So he sense

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Speaker 2: a trend here, They haven't. They they're giving up about

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Speaker 2: one hundred passing yards a game in these games where

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Speaker 2: they're you know, playing the worst run defense. The other

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Speaker 2: sixteen games of the Chiefs allowing one hundred and two

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Speaker 2: rushing yards a game, right around league averaging yards per carry.

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Speaker 2: Look at early downs, remove week eighteen and remove garbage tack.

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Speaker 2: Kansas City sixteenth in run defense success rate on early

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Speaker 2: downs at thirty seven percent, so righting around the league average,

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Speaker 2: and for comparison, San Francisco thirty nine eight. They're twenty seconds. So,

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Speaker 2: like I said, some of the run defensive metrics. Actually,

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Speaker 2: you know, San Francisco is just as worried. Some of

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Speaker 2: the playoffs. San Francisco's been five percent worse. So Kansas City. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: will they get run on, absolutely, But is it something

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Speaker 2: that's necessarily going to lose them the game. I don't think. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, to close it out and look at some trends.

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes in the postseason twelve and five against the spread,

395
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Speaker 2: seventy one percent, covering by a field goal per game,

396
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Speaker 2: straight up eighty two percent at fourteen and three. And

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Speaker 2: when you look at Mahomes's three postseason losses, twice to

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady, once Belichick, which also you know goes back

399
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Speaker 2: like when you have those a week defensive mind that

400
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 2: always helps. So twice to Tom Brady and once to

401
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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, who also had Anna Rumo as a defensive coordinator.

402
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 2: So Tom Brady twice and Joe Burrow. That's it. That's

403
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Speaker 2: the only times Patrick Mahomes has ever lost as an

404
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Speaker 2: underdog ten one and one against the spread career, covering

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Speaker 2: by seven and a half points per game. So I

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Speaker 2: do think the market is a little bit low on

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. So love taking the points. Here, give me

408
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Speaker 2: ca C plus.

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Speaker 3: Two solo pod for the Super Bowl?

410
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Speaker 2: How to go in, how to get it all out?

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Speaker 3: For first pick, I'm a six pack. It's for the

412
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Speaker 3: Luckily I don't on sleep. It's four in the morning.

413
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Speaker 3: Some people might have fallen asleep if they were, but

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Speaker 3: that was amazing stuff. As always. Let me I'll go

415
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Speaker 3: into my second pick in the second overall of the

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl Sunday pack. I'm going with the forty nine

417
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Speaker 3: ers money line in the first half. So what a

418
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Speaker 3: transition get You went on this long winding road on

419
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Speaker 3: both sides of the ball, breaking down, which is what

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Speaker 3: we want to do for this game. And then I

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Speaker 3: respond by saying, hey, we're going to forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: Start a staff. So I agree with a lot of

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Speaker 3: the things that you said. Although the Chiefs run defense

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Speaker 3: is legitimately bad, and they also are once and the

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Speaker 3: forty nine Ers are the best run offense in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: and they have Kyle Shanneh with two weeks to prepare,

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Speaker 3: and the Chiefs defense is legitimately one of the worst

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Speaker 3: the NFL defending play action passing. So I think the

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Speaker 3: forty nine Ers are gonna have a ton of success

430
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 3: early on. And it's not just running the ball, which

431
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 3: I think they'll have success doing, but I think they'll

432
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 3: have a great script. I think they'll have some great

433
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 3: play action passing. I think they lot some trick plays

434
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 3: with Debo, and I don't think that the stage is

435
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,199
Speaker 3: going to be too big for Prety early on. So

436
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 3: I think the forty nine ers offense will have success early.

437
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 3: The Chiefs offense, I agree with you. They made some

438
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 3: changes and they're given more. You know, Mahomes is making

439
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 3: more changes up at the line of scrimmage. They're kind

440
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: of they kind of cut off all the fat and

441
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 3: just you know, anything that was holding them back. They're like,

442
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 3: all right, let's just focus on you know, these three guys,

443
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 3: and that's like who they're targeting. But the offense still

444
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 3: has some issues, like the tackles are still a liability

445
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 3: and you know, Chase Young, by the way, looked horrendous

446
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 3: in the NFC Championship game. We'll see if he shows

447
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 3: up here. But so there's still some issues on it.

448
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: It's not it's still not an electric passing attack. We'll

449
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 3: talk about some of the MVP candidates but the Chiefs

450
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 3: offense will have some success. But I here's where I

451
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,239
Speaker 3: agree with you, and because because you have to keep

452
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 3: in mind, they played the Dolphins with no they had

453
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 3: no defensive line and no linebackers. They played the Bills

454
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: who were starting aj Klein, they run out of linebackers,

455
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 3: they were doing with defensive back injuries. And then you

456
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 3: know the Ravens they had those first two drug and

457
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 3: then did nothing. So I agree the offense is trending

458
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 3: in the right direction, but there are still some issues

459
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 3: under the hood. But how I see this game playing

460
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 3: out is, so I make the line like two eight

461
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 3: to nine. I didn't adjust the Chiefs as much as

462
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 3: I thought, Yeah, I mean, just the bizarre game plan

463
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 3: from the Ravens. So but where I think I think

464
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are like the most likely how I see

465
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 3: this game playing out is but I basically should should

466
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 3: go through. I agree. I think that what the forty

467
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 3: nine ers do is they play a lot of quarters

468
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 3: cover three and obviously every defense plays every defense but

469
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 3: every type of coverage, but for the most part, that's

470
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 3: what they'll play. You saw that. You know, they're kind

471
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 3: of similar to the Texans Demico Ryans Robert Sala and

472
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 3: the Jets similar coverage percentages. We saw what Mahomes did

473
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 3: for what it's worth in twenty twenty two against the

474
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 3: Demico Ryans defense. I think they he went to San

475
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 3: fre They put up like forty four.

476
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was second half.

477
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: So zoning Mahomes is not a great option. But I

478
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 3: think that's when the forty nine Ers defense is at

479
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 3: its best and you gotta have Chase Young and Chasing

480
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: has to show up here where you put artist set

481
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 3: back at defensive end. You have to take advantage of

482
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 3: these chiefs tackles. I'll be interesting to see what they

483
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 3: do there. But the forty nine Ers don't really make

484
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: any other adjustm People talk about the adjustments that Steve

485
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,239
Speaker 3: Wilke's made in the NFCY Championship game. The only thing

486
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 3: he did is just play more man, and they were like, oh,

487
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 3: it's brilliant. The Lions had so many opportunities to score

488
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 3: open guys James and Williams dropped that pass, so like

489
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: that's their only adjustment. They're always going to have a

490
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 3: four man front. Their linebackers were really good. Are always

491
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 3: going to play a little back, which makes them a

492
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 3: little bit more vulnerable to the run, but they can

493
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 3: make some plays elsewhere and then that's their only adjustment.

494
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 3: So the forty nine ers at the half, So what

495
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 3: can happen in the second half of this game? You

496
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: have Spagnola who can make significantly better adjustments schematically than Wilkes,

497
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: because I just don't. And one of the more interesting

498
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 3: storylines is will Spagnola blitz I don't think he actually

499
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 3: will as much as he's done before. Perty's been great

500
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: against the blitz and we'll see if Spagnola, but he's

501
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 3: still young. It's in the Super Bowl, so I'm really

502
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 3: curious to see what the blitz right is going to

503
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 3: be here. Whatever happens, Spagnola is gonna have time to adjust, right,

504
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: So he's gonna try some things out, and then the

505
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 3: second half he can make his adjustments. And this is

506
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 3: the Chiefs defense that has allowed fewer than four points

507
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 3: over their last eight games in the second half on average.

508
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 3: I mean, that's incredible. So the defensive adjustments have been amazing. Also,

509
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 3: special teams, you got a big kick at the end

510
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 3: of this game. You're gonna trust Bucker over Moody. You know,

511
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 3: every day of the week, twice on Sunday. And then

512
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 3: you have Mahomes, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

513
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 3: You know, if he has to come back, if he

514
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 3: has the ball late down, if he needs to have

515
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: a late drive, flip that with Party. He's been great.

516
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 3: But you would obviously trust Mahomes a lot more in

517
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter coming from behind than Perty, who's still

518
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 3: is extremely inexperience. So all three of those factors, special teams,

519
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 3: defensive adjustments, Mahomes fourth quarter. I think that's major advantage

520
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 3: to the Chiefs. So I think that the forty nine ers,

521
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 3: from just a numbers perspective, I show a little value

522
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 3: and I think that they'll they have you know, they

523
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 3: don't have to worry about all those things in the

524
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: first half. And I think that they're going to score early.

525
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: They're going to have their script's going to be great.

526
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: They've been one of the best first quarter offenses in

527
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: the NFL off season. They're going to be able to

528
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: run it. I think what the Ravens did kind of

529
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: maybe works in their favor, right, Like the Niners are

530
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 3: going to be like, all right, we saw what they did.

531
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: I think it may will probably make them run throw

532
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 3: a play action more early, but then the Chiefs are

533
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 3: going to be able to adjust. The Chiefs are also

534
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 3: be able to adjust on offense, and I think that's

535
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 3: where their advantage comes in is in the second half.

536
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 3: So I think the Niners, and then look if the

537
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 3: Niners make that adjustment to get out of a man

538
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 3: I don't think in this particular matchup, for all the

539
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 3: reasons that you mentioned, will end up as a good thing.

540
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 3: Even though Mahomes rips apart zones. I just don't trust

541
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: this forty nine Ers defense in man coverage, especially if

542
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: Chase Young plays the way that he doesn't, and then

543
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 3: that just opens up Mahomes running even more on like

544
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 3: third and longs. And so from a numbers perspective, from

545
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: what I think that this forty nine Ers offense will

546
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 3: do early, I like the Niners in the first half,

547
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: but I don't hate your chief bet because it's Mahomes

548
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 3: is a dog. But we said it all the time.

549
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 3: But it's the adjustments, the special teams, the defensive schematic

550
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 3: changes that Spagnola can make that Wilks just doesn't. It

551
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 3: doesn't have that same bag. So I kind of making

552
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 3: a case for the Chiefs a full game more than

553
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 3: the Niners first half. But I do show value in

554
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 3: the number. This is a team that I Power rated

555
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 3: number one by a wide margin all season up until

556
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: the Ravens late surge, and significantly better than the Chiefs. Well,

557
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 3: if this game was a month and a half ago,

558
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: the spread probably is but it would have been five

559
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 3: and a half sick.

560
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah from a power protector, absolutely yeah.

561
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I like the Niners first half money line.

562
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 3: I'll be looking for a chance to bet the Chiefs

563
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 3: live if they go down. I should mention with some

564
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 3: of the props, which we'll get into and the rest

565
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 3: of the six pack. The public is going to have

566
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 3: a say in the Super Bowl. You know super Bowls

567
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 3: in Vegas. It's going to be a crazy handle. If

568
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 3: you like, for example, Travis Kelcey overyards, I bet it now.

569
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 3: If you like Travis Kelcey underyards, wait correct me if

570
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 3: I'm wrong, But it's those popular player props, especially for

571
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. They're not going down. Yeah, you can

572
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 3: get if you want to bet the under weight until

573
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 3: game time. There's only going to be more money on

574
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: Kelsey over McCaffrey. Over Sure that you're thinking about the

575
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 3: timing of your bets. So I just wanted to throw

576
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 3: that out there as kind of a general Super Bowl

577
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: betting tip.

578
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Niners best shot here is going

579
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: up early because you don't want to have to do

580
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: it a third time. Right, You've gone down twice in

581
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: the playoffs. We know the numbers were not favorable at all.

582
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 2: I think, what are they Shanahan team had never come back,

583
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 2: went down at the half by a certain amount of

584
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 2: points or something like that, So this is not what Yeah,

585
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:29,479
Speaker 2: you don't want to get into this. You don't want

586
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,959
Speaker 2: to test fait a third time. So I think the

587
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 2: emphasis is going to be on starting past last year.

588
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: I was at that game, the Super Bowl, and I

589
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: saw the Chiefs down what was it, twenty four to

590
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 2: fourteen at the half they got lit up. I do

591
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 2: think there are some advantages, you know, to your bet

592
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 2: there with the with the Niners, and that's just kind

593
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 2: of how they look to play, you know, great script

594
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: score last in the first half. That's what the Niners do.

595
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 3: So where are you going for your second pick?

596
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 2: So for my second pick, the third overall all of

597
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl fifty eight Sunday six pack, I'm going

598
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes under half an interception, aka Mahomes not to

599
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: throw a pick. And this is another one that I

600
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: think if you're not really deep diving into some of

601
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: the numbers, and you're not paying attention to what's been

602
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 2: happening of weight and just how the strategy is shifting

603
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 2: and the personnel is shifting, you wouldn't see much value

604
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 2: on this because again, Mahomes through fourteen ticks this year.

605
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 2: You know, it's been I think, ye his worst year

606
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 2: in terms of throwing interceptions. But remember half of the

607
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: Chiefs interception You remove seven interceptions just by not playing

608
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 2: hardman Tony more Ross. Right, But then you start just

609
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 2: looking at okay, well, what makes you likely to throw

610
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: an interception? Well, one of those things.

611
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: All the triple coverage in the end zone.

612
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, right. And again Mahomes, playing some of the

613
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 2: best ball of his life, has not had a turnover

614
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 2: worthy play in each of the last four games, the

615
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: longest stretch of his career that spans one hundred and

616
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 2: forty seven dropbacks one hundred and thirty two pass attempts.

617
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 2: He hasn't thrown a pick in his last six postseason games.

618
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: He's been really you know, careful about that. He's been

619
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 2: he's been vocal about kind of talking about the lessons

620
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 2: he's learned from, you know, his his struggles in you know,

621
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: some of the earlier postseasons that he did throw two

622
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,479
Speaker 2: picks in that first Super Bowl he was ever in

623
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers, and you know, that's that

624
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 2: kind of you know, that didn't help, obviously, But he

625
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 2: also talks a lot about that Bucks game where you know,

626
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 2: they just weren't really prepared to deal with with the

627
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: pressure and whatnot. So that's why I think, you know,

628
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 2: it is significant that the Niners run defense has been

629
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: weak because I do think Mahomes, this current Mahomes is

630
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 2: more willing to check in the run plays, is more

631
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 2: willing to take checkdowns. He knows he has a defense

632
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 2: behind him. But also Patrick mahomes average up to target

633
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 2: tipped under seven this year. That's the lowest of his career.

634
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: You know, the deeper you're throwing, the more you're gonna

635
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 2: throw picks. And just now, the way this offense is

636
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 2: set up, you have Kelsey over eighty percent catch rate.

637
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 2: He's gonna get a ton of targets, most often, most

638
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: likely gonna be the first read in almost every pass.

639
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 2: Rashid Rice second read almost every pass. He's also over

640
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: eighty percent catch rate. Also, a guy that you're targeting

641
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: usually within you know, five to ten yards of the

642
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 2: line of line of scrimmage. Then the guys that can

643
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 2: beat man coverage on the outside. You know, it's not

644
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 2: like you're throwing into the double coverage or you're throwing

645
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 2: you know, to Watson or mvs when there's a safety

646
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: over the top. You know, Mahomes now he's seeing the

647
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 2: field so well, he's only throws of those guys if

648
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 2: it's one on one, you don't you don't usually get

649
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 2: a lot of picks when you're just in man one

650
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 2: on one, So not was worried about those guys. You know,

651
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: obviously you could get a tip ball, you could get

652
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 2: a drop, But just the way Mahomes playing, the way

653
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 2: they're targeting these guys, Uh, it just doesn't lend itself

654
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 2: to him throwing a pick and just looking at the numbers.

655
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: You know, for his career, he's throwing a pick in

656
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 2: exactly half of his regular season games. In the playoffs,

657
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 2: he's only throwing a pick in four of seventeen, just

658
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: twenty four percent. And remember competition, especially you know, defensively

659
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: goes up in the postseason, so it's playing against better defenses,

660
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: throwing fewer picks. And now you essentially, like you said,

661
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: trim the fat, you're facing a team that you might

662
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: even run a little more than usual. Last Super Bowl,

663
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 2: you know, he's put up thirty eight points and I

664
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 2: think mahomess what twenty one or twenty seven for a

665
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 2: buck eighty two? Like it? Just you know, the volume

666
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 2: doesn't always have to be there for Mahomes. So I

667
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 2: think you have a good shot at him. He's been

668
00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 2: He's just he said, he's been making a point, just

669
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 2: be really careful because he knows he has this his

670
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 2: defense now. So I just think all those different factors

671
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 2: kind of add up to Mahomes playing another queen games.

672
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 2: So give me Mahomes under half an interception.

673
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 3: All right, good stuff there. I like it, and hopefully,

674
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 3: like I said, he just doesn't. I'm throwing the triple

675
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 3: coverage to ruin the bet like last week, but for

676
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: my second pick and the fourth overall the Super Bowl

677
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:33,439
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack, I'm going with Elijah Mitchell under one

678
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 3: and a half rush attempts. This is pretty straightforward. You

679
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,280
Speaker 3: might look and say, oh, you had four carries last week,

680
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 3: four carries for seven months. Well, yeah, they came at

681
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,760
Speaker 3: the very end and McCaffrey went out with a neck injury.

682
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 3: Before then, McCaffrey had taken one hundred percent of the

683
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 3: running back snaps. I expect that to continue again. Maybe

684
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: they give him one if, like McCaffrey is completely gassed.

685
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't see it like I think

686
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 3: that you get you know, maybe use check gets one

687
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 3: for like a short yardage. You want to power him

688
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 3: up there, and then I think you're gonna have You're

689
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 3: gonna have Deebo Samuel, He's gonna get some carries as well.

690
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 3: He's gonna get a percentage of the rush workload. I

691
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 3: think that this is now, it's the last game of

692
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 3: the season, and yeah, they were already doing this before

693
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 3: mccafery went out at injury. McCaffrey's your workhorse, He's who

694
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 3: got you here. Andy, You're gonna get all the running

695
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 3: back carries. So I think that this number should be

696
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 3: one flight, shouldn't be one and a half. I don't

697
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,720
Speaker 3: think he gets a carry, so hopefully he gets a snap,

698
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 3: which is the only caveat here, But I expect McCaffrey

699
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: to get every running back snap. You're the projector of

700
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:47,720
Speaker 3: this and the player party.

701
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: You do agree here.

702
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 2: So we have a props tool at Action Labs, and

703
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 2: I think for both me and our guy Sean curnin

704
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 2: the odds maker, that's coming up, as you know, the

705
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 2: biggest edge among Super Bowl props. And it's you know,

706
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 2: it's not every proper market like that's in the tool.

707
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 2: It's you know, the main you know, rushing, receiving, attempts,

708
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 2: yards and all that stuff. But uh, you know, for

709
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 2: the most part, especially as we record this, you know,

710
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:16,320
Speaker 2: the week before the Super Bowl, most of the player

711
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 2: you know, player props they're out now, uh, you know,

712
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 2: the usual normal just median projection props or whatever. They're

713
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 2: pretty sharp by the market. Uh, this one I do

714
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,919
Speaker 2: think has value because again, as you broke down, they're

715
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 2: they're not going to give Mitchell snaps unless McCaffrey gets hurt.

716
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 2: Now there is you know about it. That's that's what

717
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 2: you're better than two.

718
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're running on McCaffrey leaving the game of an

719
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 3: injury or getting hurt at any point.

720
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that that's usually and I do factor that

721
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 2: into my projectors, and I still have Mitchell projective for

722
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 2: about one Carrie flat, you know, and that's you know,

723
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 2: that's that's just literally factoring in, you know, things like

724
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,919
Speaker 2: what happened last week where McCaffrey goes down literally if

725
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: he if he just makes it one more play, or

726
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 2: even probably if he doesn't have that good of a

727
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 2: run because you know, I think he ran like fifty

728
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 2: yards and set them sets them up like first and goals,

729
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 2: so you know they're at that point they're all right,

730
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 2: we got to punch it in here. Uh but yeah,

731
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: he you know, that's.

732
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 3: Not that's every prop. There's always an injury rescue better you're.

733
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 2: Just usually getting a little bit of that built in

734
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 2: edge for injuries. But yeah, I agree. I think I

735
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 2: think the biggest challenge here is just him to get

736
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 2: a snap. So hopefully for you uh, San Francisco does

737
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 2: find a way to either win the game, because then

738
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 2: he would probably be in on the kneil downs, although

739
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 2: if it's the Super Bowl game ending neil down, they

740
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 2: probably start out McCaffrey out. There's a lot of ways

741
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 2: that this could still hit and worse things that could

742
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 2: happen is you just get no action. But I do

743
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 2: think there is an edgure this. And I'll also say,

744
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 2: you know, so you know, kind of an interesting cariat,

745
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 2: you know, and factor in this game is Deebo Samuel

746
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 2: and how he's used because in eight of eleven postseason

747
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: games for Deebo, he's been under fifty receiving yards, but

748
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 2: he's had you know, thirty five plus rushing yards in

749
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 2: those games. Now twice he's had I think just a

750
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 2: couple of carries to get there, but other two times

751
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 2: he had ten, you know, ten carries. So there's also

752
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 2: a chance that even if McCaffrey gets gassed or hurt,

753
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 2: most important game of the year, Deebo Samuel might very

754
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 2: well be the backup running back. Do you even have

755
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 2: some outs here even if McCaffrey does, you know, have

756
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 2: to have to leave for a couple of players or

757
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: something like that. And by the way, we'll have a

758
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 2: full proper Palooza episode as we do every year right

759
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: here on this channel. Me Kerner will be on that

760
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 2: as well. That'll come out later this week, so look

761
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 2: out for that. But yeah, I do like I like

762
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 2: the Mitchell under a lot this podcast is proudly presented

763
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: by Bett MGM. Used bonus code action act io N

764
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 2: when signing up to get one hundred and fifty eight

765
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars for

766
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 2: new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

767
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

768
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: Terms and conditions of probably must be twenty one year older.

769
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 2: Game ling problem call one eight hundred gambler.

770
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 3: Before we get to your final pick, any thoughts on

771
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 3: the quick thoughts on the total? I'm right around forty eight.

772
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 3: You know, it's a fast track the way that I

773
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 3: see the game plan out Sanford fast start, Kansas City adjusts,

774
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 3: and then again they're going to have a successful second half.

775
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 3: Kansas City maybe slower start. It depends on how much

776
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 3: they're down. Like so, the total's tough for me to

777
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 3: see how this game plays out. If I had the

778
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 3: bet the total, I'd probably go over, but I don't

779
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 3: show that much of an edge. Do you have any

780
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 3: thoughts on the total for anyone looking to bet it?

781
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would lean over as well, but I agree

782
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 2: it's it's not a major edge because but the games.

783
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 3: Are gonna be slow. The game's gonna be forty nine

784
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 3: ers are slow, and I think that they're gonna run

785
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 3: a lot, So like the clock is going to go

786
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,919
Speaker 3: and I expect the Chiefs to also run a bunch,

787
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 3: So I like the game is not gonna the game

788
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: is going to go pretty quick, for as quick as

789
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 3: the super Bowl can go.

790
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, and remember, you know, talking about Mahomes and he's

791
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 2: last week against the best pass defense in the league.

792
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 2: He completed thirty of thirty nine passes seventy seven percent.

793
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 2: Second straight week he was you know, seventy percent or

794
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:30,399
Speaker 2: higher in completions, and so that a lot of times

795
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 2: that's not going to stop the cock either. And you

796
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 2: know you're throwing short things like that and.

797
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 3: That that kind of everything, Well everything was in then

798
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 3: five yards.

799
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so then that'll go into my next pick. But yeah,

800
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 2: I think the I would lean over also because again

801
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 2: I think the market is still a little bit undervaluing

802
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 2: the Chiefs offense, you know, and some of the changes

803
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 2: that that it's made, and you just have two good

804
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 2: offenses on a fast track. And you know, like I

805
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:02,800
Speaker 2: think when you look at like if you were just

806
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 2: let's say, simulating not just this game, but like the

807
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 2: entire season over, you know, a ten thousand times, I

808
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 2: think this total, like how it's ended up at forty

809
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 2: seven and forty seven and a half, Like that's squeezing

810
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 2: it to the low end, you know, like it's yeah, yeah,

811
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 2: right right, it's yeah, exactly, it's close. It's closer. Yeah,

812
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 2: it's closer to the tail. So you're not you're not

813
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 2: getting much lower than that. When you're talking about two

814
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 2: of the best offenses in football, and I know the

815
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 2: defenses are great as well, but you know, offense still

816
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 2: is gonna win. Uh, you know, two of the greatest

817
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 2: defenses too, I mean two of the greatest offenses, one

818
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,839
Speaker 2: of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, another two great

819
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 2: offensive mines at at you know, running calling the plays

820
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 2: and remember the Chiefs. Yeah, they've been elite second half defensively,

821
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 2: and that's you know, it's one of the reasons you

822
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 2: like the first half spread. But I think it's something

823
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 2: like they've scored on now like nine straight opening drives

824
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 2: in the postseason, so you can still get you know,

825
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: enough points stuff on the board early on to get

826
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 2: it there, and then if Mahomes is down, I mean,

827
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 2: you trust him to to put points on the board

828
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 2: even if Kansas City's defense isn't a wile on points.

829
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I would lean over as well, But I

830
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 2: do agree there are you know it's there are some

831
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 2: things you know, running wise and just you know that

832
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 2: game flow wise that could lead to and under. But

833
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 2: if I had to do it, I'll go over.

834
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:30,919
Speaker 3: But where are you going for your third and final pick.

835
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 2: For my third and final pick fifth overall of the

836
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 2: Super Bowl fifty eight six pack, I am going with

837
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs over nineteen and a half first downs,

838
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 2: And I mentioned, you know, a lot of things we've

839
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 2: talked about up until's point kind of lead me to

840
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: this play, which is number one, you have Mahomes growing shorter,

841
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: not as many explosives, so that's just naturally gonna lead

842
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 2: to longer drives, more first downs rather than you know,

843
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 2: picking it up in chunks. Now, especially now you know

844
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 2: you have hyper efficient underneath receiving options. You also are

845
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 2: facing a run defense that can be vulnerable, So a

846
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 2: lot of things kind of playing into that. And if

847
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: you just look at the numbers overall this season, which

848
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: again you know, there's a lot of they're not going

849
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 2: to be They're not going to hold up because I

850
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs offense is better now there's just a

851
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: lot of noise. But Kansas City, you know, even if

852
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 2: you just look at the take the numbers for what

853
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: they are hit twenty first downs in twelve of the

854
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 2: nineteen Mahomes starts sixty three percent, and San Francisco, as

855
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,879
Speaker 2: good as its defense was excluding Week eighteen when guys

856
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 2: were resting, San Francisco allowed twenty or more first downs

857
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 2: fifty six percent of the time, including both postseason games.

858
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 2: So I think this is a very attainable number for

859
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. Just this is this is how Mahomes is playing.

860
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 2: He's more deliberately willing to take checkdowns. He could also

861
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 2: get you know, an underrated factor is Mahomes excellent scrambler

862
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:10,880
Speaker 2: and just does it a lot more in the playoffs,

863
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 2: so he could also get some of those you know,

864
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 2: oh my god, he should not convert this first down.

865
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 2: They should have punted. Type of rushing first down from

866
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: Mahomes that you don't necessarily get as much of in

867
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 2: the regular season, So I like the Chiefs over nineteen

868
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 2: and a half first downs.

869
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 3: Like it for my third pick in the sixth overall

870
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 3: of the Super Bowl Sunday six pack, I'm going we

871
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 3: gotta get a fun one in here. I'm gonna give

872
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 3: a fun one for the my final pick of the season,

873
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 3: and then I'll give a real one also that I'm betting.

874
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 3: But we're gonna go over forty seven and a half

875
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 3: yards for the longest field goal. This at the very minimum,

876
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 3: if all your bets are on fire, from the anthem

877
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 3: to the coin toss to the whatever you're betting early

878
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 3: and this one at least, you will be alive until

879
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 3: the very end. Depending on how the game goes, you

880
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 3: could always hit this in the final minute. But other

881
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 3: than that, I think these it's great. It's a great

882
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 3: kicking stadium. You have altitude, fast track, no conditions, you

883
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 3: have two kickers with huge legs, two coaches who kind

884
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 3: of get a little bit too conservative at times in

885
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 3: that range, and Bucker could hit from like sixty two

886
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: in these conditions, and Moody has a huge leg. So

887
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 3: a fun one that I do like and did bet

888
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 3: over forty seven and a half and then the real one.

889
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 3: If you're looking for one with more analysis, that won't

890
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:41,240
Speaker 3: be included. But I did bet under sacks for Purty

891
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 3: under two and a half sacks, which were what it's

892
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 3: about to hit fourteen to eighteen times for the night Ers. No,

893
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:46,799
Speaker 3: you could say, well, the Chiefs had what fifty seven

894
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 3: sacks and one two with the Ravens and number of sacks,

895
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 3: but just how I see this game playing out, I

896
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 3: think that I was gonna use a ton of faction,

897
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 3: run a lot. I don't think the Chiefs are going

898
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 3: to blitz as much. So I think that the way

899
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 3: that Spagnola is going to play this heart he's been

900
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 3: so good against the blitz, I think that they're going

901
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: to play more of the run and then a more coverage,

902
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 3: which is something that they haven't done, so that kind

903
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 3: of inflates their their blitz numbers. And then you know

904
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 3: a Mena who is out as well, so and Party's

905
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 3: He's I think, trusting his legs more to run now,

906
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 3: which he hasn't done at times this year. So if

907
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 3: he sees pressure, he's now it seems like he's just

908
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 3: more willing to get out and run and scramble. So yeah,

909
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 3: we're gonna go. I did bet under two and a

910
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 3: half sacks, but for the official last pick of the

911
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 3: season for the six Pack will go over forty seven

912
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,759
Speaker 3: and a half yards. So it'll be one of those

913
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 3: fun sweats where someone's lining up for like a fifty

914
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 3: two yarder and you're like, oh man, this this is

915
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 3: going to decide my bet if Moody hits the post

916
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 3: or not. So yeah, final pick of the year over

917
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 3: forty seven and a half longest field goal.

918
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I like you talked about the field goal

919
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 2: off offline, and I do like it because I do

920
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: think Andy Reid is gonna be that's just what they do,

921
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 2: you know, is as good as Mahomes, and that offense

922
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 2: is uh he's usually gonna take the points. I think

923
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 2: if you get into that shanty and does it two,

924
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,839
Speaker 2: I think he's you know a little bit more likely

925
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 2: to maybe eskew it, just because he's always said, you know,

926
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 2: we are usually the better team, uh so we don't

927
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 2: have to take a lot of risks, we don't have

928
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 2: to fake punt and do all that stuff. Maybe he

929
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: looks at things differently against against Mahomes, especially depending on

930
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 2: the game. Flogos but also Moody has missed five times

931
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 2: under fifty, so maybe, you know, maybe that plays into it.

932
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 2: But if there's ever like you know, a lot of

933
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 2: those kicks, I remember one came and get in the weather.

934
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 2: A couple of them came in the weather. So uh, Now,

935
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 2: like you said, altitude indoors, uh, Moody even could get

936
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 2: his you know, get stuff together. And then as far

937
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: as the sacks, I think I have Kansas City at

938
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 2: like two point three. So yeah, I am a to

939
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:02,720
Speaker 2: under this, especially when you factor in you know, median

940
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 2: is usually lower than the you know, than the projection

941
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 2: for that kind of thing, because obviously can't be two

942
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 2: point three, it can only be two or three lean

943
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 2: that way as well. I'm I mean, it's just tough

944
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 2: to know exactly what party's gonna do. We just haven't

945
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 2: seen him on the stage before. But I do agree

946
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 2: he did look he did look like he he was

947
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 2: a little more willing to take off, especially in that

948
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 2: game in the second half against against Detroit. Well, we'll

949
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 2: talk some so we'll talk some long shots, some touchdowns,

950
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 2: some MVP. We usually do that as tradition at the

951
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 2: end of the season for the Super Bowl. But let

952
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 2: me just recap the six pack. So I have the

953
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: Chiefs plus two Mahomes under half an interception and the

954
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:46,800
Speaker 2: Chiefs over nineteen and a half first downs and stuck.

955
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 2: You have the Niners first half money line minus won

956
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: twenty five at bet MGM, the Elijah Mitchell under one

957
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 2: and a half carries, and longest field goal for either

958
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:04,800
Speaker 2: team over forty seven and a half. Any notice to

959
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:06,800
Speaker 2: any of the you know your limits to where you

960
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 2: bet those numbers, like the first half money line, it's

961
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 2: one twenty five right now, They're a number where you're saying, okay,

962
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 2: forget it.

963
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 3: I wouldn't go high. I wouldn't go yeah, I wouldn't

964
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 3: go higher than that and chop around. I think that

965
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 3: you can find a better number than that. That's probably

966
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 3: the max field goal. I wouldn't go higher than forty eight.

967
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that. Mitchell, just get it above one

968
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 3: and like play it to like I would play it to,

969
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 3: like minus one. I would play it to even like

970
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 3: minus one. Fifty would be fine.

971
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 2: Yeah for me, you know che I mean really, Chiefs

972
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 2: is a dog. I mean at this, I mean you'd

973
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 2: like the two or better just because you know there's

974
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: a chance that the Chiefs maybe down eight, and you

975
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 2: know they don't go for two a lot and either

976
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 2: team does. But you may be in a situation where

977
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 2: my Homes gets you to the doorstep, and you know,

978
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 2: even if something goes wrong, you could still at least push.

979
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 2: But still, like, I think the Chiefs win this game.

980
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:04,320
Speaker 2: So I don't mind the Chiefs as anywhere as a

981
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,959
Speaker 2: dog Mahomes underpicks. It's pretty much even right.

982
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 3: Now as well, wait, if you're betting the Chiefs, like

983
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,319
Speaker 3: you never know, so like you know, maybe it goes three.

984
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 3: I don't think it does, but you can watch the

985
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 3: market and you know, if it starts to come down

986
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 3: at some of the Sharper books closer to the game

987
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 3: time and like somewhere flashes a one and a half,

988
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,319
Speaker 3: then you know for sure it's not going to go up.

989
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 3: Then you hit your two. So I don't think that

990
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 3: it's a bad idea that if you have one of

991
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,359
Speaker 3: that the Chiefs just to wait, because who knows, maybe

992
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 3: maybe it does go to three.

993
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 2: I have, you know, some already on the Chiefs, but

994
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 2: you haven't seen it come through on the app yet

995
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:43,959
Speaker 2: because I'm waiting, you know, to place my biggest bet. Also,

996
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 2: did you see where see where the line goes as well? Yeah,

997
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 2: and yeah for Mahomes, I mean I talked about it

998
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:51,879
Speaker 2: only happened twenty four percent of the time he's trying

999
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 2: to pick in the postseason. Interception numbers are you know,

1000
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:59,839
Speaker 2: they're notoriously just kind of volatile. But I think if

1001
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 2: you're getting this same thing, like up to minus one fifty,

1002
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,239
Speaker 2: you know, sixty forty shot, I think that's that's a

1003
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,080
Speaker 2: fair h you know, projection for him to go under.

1004
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 2: And in the first downs, I really like it at

1005
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half. Even if you start getting juiced

1006
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:15,319
Speaker 2: up at twenty and a half, it's a little more

1007
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 2: if you you know, if you get an even money, fine,

1008
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 2: but I think nineteen you really want to get that

1009
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 2: over nineteen and a half for that one. So that's

1010
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 2: that's our super Bowl fifty eight six pack. We'll do

1011
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:31,840
Speaker 2: long shots, touchdowns, all that stuff, but first let's do

1012
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl fifty eight and final coaches, pep talk.

1013
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

1014
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 2: a half feed again to ninth and it stopped right now.

1015
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 2: We're going to actor Charlie Day the twenty seventeen film

1016
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: Fifth Fight, and we'll dedicate it to h Brock. Perty guys.

1017
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: You know, look, you try to be a nice guy

1018
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 2: right and treat everyone with respect, but you don't get it.

1019
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 2: You don't get get it back in return. You know why,

1020
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 2: because nice guys they finished last Yeah, and you're gonna say, hey,

1021
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 2: I'm a nice guy, I'm doing okay, and the world

1022
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 2: is gonna un sip his pants, pull them down and

1023
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 2: take a giant fucking shit all over you, guys. I

1024
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 2: just can't wait, Guys, I cannot win. So best of

1025
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 2: luck to the Niners in the first half at least,

1026
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 2: and let's talk some long shot, some MVP touchdowns, all

1027
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 2: that stuff.

1028
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 3: I am betting overtime because my pal and your pal,

1029
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 3: Nick Giffon, the overtime modeler, tells me that there's actually

1030
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 3: value in this number in the Super Bowl good overtime.

1031
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 3: So I'm betting that twelve thirteen to one. I don't

1032
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,720
Speaker 3: know why you'd have to. I'll have that and tweet

1033
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 3: about why there's value and what his true odds are.

1034
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 2: I mean, part of it is, part of it. Part

1035
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:54,760
Speaker 2: of it is just like you said, my homes always

1036
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 2: finds a way to come back and even if he's

1037
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 2: down and it's just a two point spread, so you're

1038
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 2: naturally you're gonna have But I thought.

1039
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:02,800
Speaker 3: That there would be no value in that, like it

1040
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 3: would if it's a Super Bowl, like they would have

1041
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:08,880
Speaker 3: a price, right, But who am for MVP? You know?

1042
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 3: So you look back at the MVPs over the past

1043
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:14,439
Speaker 3: what fifteen years, like you have you have a couple

1044
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 3: of random defenders that win it, right, Malcolm Smith von Miller.

1045
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 3: Those are hard to predict, Like if you want to

1046
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:24,719
Speaker 3: throw you literally want to take a dartboard out and

1047
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:27,440
Speaker 3: put all the defenders' names on there and throw it

1048
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 3: at one for fun. Fine, because like it's hard for

1049
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,360
Speaker 3: me to see a defender. So no, not considering any defenders.

1050
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 1: Now.

1051
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 3: The only other players besides quarterbacks who have won it

1052
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 3: is when a wide receiver goes off what s Antonio

1053
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 3: Holmes had nine for one thirty one and a touchdown,

1054
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 3: Hyn's Ward. You have Julian Edelman, Cooper Cup. When these

1055
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: guys go off and usually get multiple touchdowns. So you know,

1056
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 3: my thoughts were the two ones that stick out are

1057
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 3: obviously Deebo Samuel, But I don't see a lot of

1058
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 3: value in him. I could see Rice potentially just because

1059
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 3: he has I think he's gonna have favorable matchups where

1060
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 3: he lines up San Francisco's really good at covering tight ends.

1061
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: I know Kelsey always goes off, but if they just

1062
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 3: have extra focus on him and shut him down, I mean,

1063
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 3: there's a potential where what did Rice have last week?

1064
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 3: He had eight catches. There's a potential that Rice has

1065
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:21,840
Speaker 3: like ten catches. So they just give it to Mahomes

1066
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 3: like you had when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.

1067
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 3: You had a Damian Williams had three touchdowns, Yeah, and

1068
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 3: didn't win it. So are they just it if the

1069
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,360
Speaker 3: Chiefs win, no matter who, what anyone does is it

1070
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:35,320
Speaker 3: doesn't go to Mahomes.

1071
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1072
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 2: I have some thoughts on that. I have some thoughts

1073
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 2: on that. So let me jump in real quick and

1074
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: I'll let you continue. But so I think Rice is

1075
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:43,920
Speaker 2: actually guy I was going to talk about too, because

1076
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 2: he's yeah fifty to one, and he has similar projection

1077
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:51,399
Speaker 2: in catches yards to Kelsey, as you mentioned. The only

1078
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 2: thing is, you know Kelsey has scored in eight of

1079
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 2: the last nine playoff games, thirteen of seventeen overall, Homes.

1080
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 2: Rice does it have the touchdown equity this year as much?

1081
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,279
Speaker 2: But you're talking about one game. Anything can happen, So

1082
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 2: love Rice and but but here's the thing why I think.

1083
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:12,560
Speaker 3: Kelsey's gonna have to deal with those linebackers.

1084
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 2: I like Kelsey two for what his words. Here's why

1085
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:17,600
Speaker 2: I think there's kind of some hidden value on even

1086
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 2: if you think the Chiefs are gonna win, and listen,

1087
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 2: I think Patrick Mahomes is just looking for like the

1088
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 2: most likely got to win. I still think it's Patrick Mahomes.

1089
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 2: But look at what happened in the past when you

1090
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 2: mentioned those wide receivers, right, and there's all this talk.

1091
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 3: Because the quarterback already won it.

1092
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 2: So there's been all this talk, Right, Mahomes is the

1093
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 2: new Brady very Well might maybe? So if you look

1094
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: at Brady's career, he won two he won his the

1095
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 2: first two Super Rols, he won, he won the third

1096
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 2: time he on Branch, then he wins two more and

1097
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 2: then the third time Edelman. So if there is if

1098
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 2: t and right, there could be some fatigue. If there's fatigue,

1099
00:57:57,080 --> 00:58:00,479
Speaker 2: and listen, we you know people are I've been writing

1100
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 2: Kelsey off all year and he's all he's done is

1101
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 2: disprove all that and pretty much does that every postseason.

1102
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 2: So I'm I still think he's a good bet and

1103
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,439
Speaker 2: the market is, you know, fairly in check Brame, He's

1104
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 2: twelve to one, so I like him as well. But

1105
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,560
Speaker 2: I think both of those guys because of the way

1106
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are playing now, where they're essentially targeting two

1107
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:22,160
Speaker 2: guys high volume and everyone else is just when it

1108
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:24,479
Speaker 2: makes sense, you're gonna you're gonna have a good chance

1109
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 2: of Kelsey and Rice both getting you know, north of

1110
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 2: five catches, you know, six, seven, eight, nine catches at

1111
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 2: least one of them. And maybe there's something to the

1112
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:36,880
Speaker 2: voter fatigue now.

1113
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 3: But you're getting a much better price with price, and

1114
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 3: I think it has a better matchup. So like that's

1115
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 3: the determining factor for me.

1116
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 2: The reason I still think Mahomes should be the odds

1117
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 2: on favorite. I think Ken Sick's real undervalued obviously, But

1118
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:51,800
Speaker 2: what does it talk this Super Bowl? Travis Kelcey, Taylor Swift,

1119
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 2: Is Kelsey gonna retire? Is he loshed? Just Kelsey Kelsey

1120
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,479
Speaker 2: Kelsey Kelsey Kelsey? And then what's the other talking point,

1121
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 2: Rod Perry, He's out a game manager. He's actually really good,

1122
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 2: you know. So it's like Kelsey Purty, Kelsey Purty, Patrick

1123
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 2: Mahomes best football player on the planet. He might have

1124
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 2: something to say, and he might he can never say

1125
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 2: it out loud because he's just not that type of guy.

1126
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 2: But you best believe he's he's gonna be like, oh,

1127
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:17,920
Speaker 2: you know, like the real MVP is here. So I

1128
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 2: think he's gonna show out very well. They just forced voters' hands,

1129
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 2: you know, if the Chiefs are able to pull off victory.

1130
00:59:23,720 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 2: But like Kelsey, I mean, if it's close and like

1131
00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:29,439
Speaker 2: Mahomes has another like you know, one eighty two yard

1132
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:32,200
Speaker 2: game or whatever, but Kelsey catches a touchdown, you know

1133
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:35,600
Speaker 2: this Wholetailer Swift thing all to talk about, you know, Kelsey.

1134
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 2: It might be Kelsey's last year or whatever. I can

1135
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 2: see that Mahomes is one too. I could see I

1136
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 2: could see Kelsey getting it too. So that's that's kind

1137
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 2: of my well thoughts on that.

1138
00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:47,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think we're on the same page. On

1139
00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:52,040
Speaker 3: the other side of the going to the forty nine

1140
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 3: Ers win is you know, can McCaffrey do enough?

1141
00:59:57,040 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 2: Yes as yes, yes, But.

1142
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 3: We've seen running backs with three touchdowns not win it.

1143
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:09,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, but that was Patrick Holmes first time, first super Bowl,

1144
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 2: first one, so you got to hear it to be like,

1145
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 2: but first of all, we haven't seen running back is

1146
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 2: good a Christan McAfrey in the Super Bowl in a

1147
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 2: long time period. Second of all, let's look at something

1148
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 2: that I do think actually has a little bit of correlation.

1149
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 2: Maybe not much, but it's these these markets come about

1150
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:26,960
Speaker 2: once a year. It's really hard to break down. But

1151
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 2: who are the We.

1152
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 3: Haven't seen a running back win since Davis Davis?

1153
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:34,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, yeah, and then it was I think Emmitt

1154
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 2: one one and Davis.

1155
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1156
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:39,560
Speaker 2: So but look who is the MVP finalists this year?

1157
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 2: They were announced thirty right, it was you know, it

1158
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 2: was Lamar, it was and it was Purty and McCaffrey.

1159
01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 2: So the fact that McCaffrey was an MVP finalist, uh,

1160
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 2: and the fact that there was debate this season about

1161
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:56,560
Speaker 2: you know, who should it be and whatnot? I think

1162
01:00:56,600 --> 01:01:01,160
Speaker 2: the voters are perfectly fine with given McCaffrey the en

1163
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 2: the end. Let's just think about this realistically, like, what's

1164
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 2: the forty nine? Is past the victory? Best past the victory?

1165
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 2: It's it's Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel running roughshot over

1166
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:16,560
Speaker 2: Kansas City and not forcing Purty you know, to to

1167
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:18,800
Speaker 2: just have to throw at thirty five to forty times

1168
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,440
Speaker 2: against and a week pass defense that can man up

1169
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 2: if they have to. So, uh, you know, Perty's got

1170
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 2: better odds. McCaffrey is bus you know, about five to

1171
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,720
Speaker 2: one and most spots, and I think some of that

1172
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:33,640
Speaker 2: is because running backs haven't won it, but I think

1173
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:35,560
Speaker 2: that should be a lot closer. I mean, what do

1174
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 2: you think, are you on the same page or what

1175
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 2: do you think? Yeah?

1176
01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 3: I agree, I agree. I think that I think that

1177
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 3: he's gonna have a lot of success running it. He's

1178
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:45,760
Speaker 3: probably gonna get the touch he's I mean, you know,

1179
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 3: he's gonna score. It's almost a lot. Yeah. So yeah,

1180
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 3: I think that the only other forty nine er that

1181
01:01:55,440 --> 01:02:00,080
Speaker 3: I think would be worth considering is Debo. But he

1182
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 3: also can break some runs. They even could throw him

1183
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 3: on a return. He's the only other one I would

1184
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 3: consider from an MVP perspective. Everyone wants to better. First

1185
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:11,439
Speaker 3: touchdown at Dart you have a yeah, a ramp.

1186
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:13,640
Speaker 2: Oh so it's the same thing. It's it's it's always

1187
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:15,919
Speaker 2: going to kind of be the same guy. I mean, like, yes,

1188
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 2: there are you know, some guys that get targeted a

1189
01:02:18,080 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: little more early and some guys. You know, obviously you're

1190
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,120
Speaker 2: gonna see more receivers on the field weight but for

1191
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 2: you know, normal touchdowns. First of all, let me just

1192
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 2: talk about anytime real quick. I do think there's some

1193
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 2: value in the Travis Kelce market at you know, it's

1194
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 2: like minus one ten both ways, just because you know,

1195
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 2: just all eyes are going to be on him. I

1196
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 2: think you are getting like a discount factored in because

1197
01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 2: San Francisco is so good with their linebackers and whatnot.

1198
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 2: But you know, San Francisco does have some you know,

1199
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 2: the safeties aren't aren't great, and I think Pacheco and

1200
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 2: Kelsey should be pretty similar. But you know, Pacheco, that

1201
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 2: market's starting to be overvalued. So if you're looking for

1202
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:55,919
Speaker 2: just like any time, I think it's Kelsey, but long

1203
01:02:55,960 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 2: shot first touchdown or just anytime touchdown, got it be

1204
01:03:00,680 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 2: Richie James because talked about how they trimmed the fat.

1205
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 2: They're not playing Tony probably gonna be scratch again after

1206
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:13,000
Speaker 2: his twitter whatever it's I do ive tiraid more. They're

1207
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: not playing Ross and they're not playing hard man anymore.

1208
01:03:15,800 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 2: So Richie James has been the wide receiver four and

1209
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 2: he played seventeen snaps in the Timers Championship. He's also

1210
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 2: a return man, so you get some extra cracks at it.

1211
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:29,120
Speaker 2: And what again, I was at that game last year,

1212
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:33,440
Speaker 2: who did I see score? I saw Skymore score for

1213
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 2: the first time all year in that game against Philadelphia,

1214
01:03:37,160 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 2: and he was the only catch of the Super Bowl

1215
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 2: he scores, and he was I think the number four

1216
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 2: wide receiver in that matchup as well. And I see

1217
01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 2: Kadarius Tony he was barely on the field score on

1218
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 2: I think it was a five yard So when you

1219
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:52,840
Speaker 2: have a guy like Richie James who's a complete afterthought

1220
01:03:53,280 --> 01:03:57,919
Speaker 2: in this offense, Andy Reid can scheme up a play

1221
01:03:58,000 --> 01:03:59,960
Speaker 2: for a guy like that, you never know when he's

1222
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:04,240
Speaker 2: gonna do it. But unlike some of the other long shots,

1223
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 2: because like the Niners, you know, talk about it with

1224
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 2: a chance, they go back to Harman if you want

1225
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 2: to bet harmon anytime touchdown, I don't hate that. But

1226
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 2: like if you're talking about like a guy with long

1227
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 2: odds who's also realistic with precedent, I think that guy

1228
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 2: would actually be Richie James because Harman got one snap

1229
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:22,720
Speaker 2: last week. Now, I will say this, if Harmon plays

1230
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:24,960
Speaker 2: one stat this week, Andy Raid may very well have

1231
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 2: something drawn up specifically for Harman to score, like we've

1232
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,280
Speaker 2: seen that with Tony in the past, where he barely

1233
01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:32,440
Speaker 2: plays and when he comes in it's like some crazy

1234
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 2: red zone plays. So yeah, Harmon, but I say Richie

1235
01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:39,160
Speaker 2: James and another guy I'll throw out there. Well, two

1236
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,720
Speaker 2: the tight ends for Kansas City. Now, we tried this

1237
01:04:42,840 --> 01:04:44,560
Speaker 2: last year where I think it was Joe Fortson and

1238
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 2: didn't work out. But here's the thing. Remember, so something

1239
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 2: really important happened that boosts these tight ends, and it

1240
01:04:53,200 --> 01:04:54,920
Speaker 2: also I guess it works in Kelsey's favorite too. But

1241
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:58,160
Speaker 2: Kansas City this year, for the first time I think

1242
01:04:58,200 --> 01:05:02,280
Speaker 2: in the Mahomes era, stop using full back, so they

1243
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 2: also don't sneak Mahomes, right, So combine those two things

1244
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:10,520
Speaker 2: together and what happens. Well, we've seen them use Noah

1245
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 2: Gray in the past on a sneak, and we've seen

1246
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:14,880
Speaker 2: them use Blake Bell. I don't think it was this year,

1247
01:05:14,920 --> 01:05:17,440
Speaker 2: but we've seen them use Blake Bell. Those are their

1248
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:21,600
Speaker 2: two backup tight ends. So there's out for both of

1249
01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:24,360
Speaker 2: those guys. Even if they don't get let's say a

1250
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 2: red zone target or like a cheap play action or whatever,

1251
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 2: you still have that, you know, still small chances using

1252
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 2: a lot more. Yeah, yeah, exactly, That's what I'm getting at.

1253
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:38,880
Speaker 2: So Richie James, I think James, I would say, probably

1254
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:42,680
Speaker 2: better anytime touchdown than first touchdown because the fourth wide

1255
01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 2: receiver is just more likely to get in the game. Leader,

1256
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 2: because like you said, they're going a lot more one three,

1257
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:51,280
Speaker 2: one two early. Uh and then yeah, Gray and Blake

1258
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:53,920
Speaker 2: Bell probably better first touchdown bets.

1259
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:56,840
Speaker 3: I completely agree. I'm going to take a shot on

1260
01:05:57,480 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 3: a Chief So it might be Richie James might be

1261
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:02,680
Speaker 3: the way to go, because I was thinking Hardman. In

1262
01:06:02,760 --> 01:06:04,240
Speaker 3: the last time they played the forty nine Ers, he

1263
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:05,200
Speaker 3: had three touchdowns.

1264
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he almost had one in his last like

1265
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:09,760
Speaker 2: significant action which was two games ago, but he fumbled

1266
01:06:09,840 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 2: out the end zone. Dude, absolutely score. But he also

1267
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 2: fumbled on another play in that game. And here's some

1268
01:06:15,600 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 2: hilarious mcgohardman stats. This year, he's had two drops two

1269
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:22,520
Speaker 2: and this is just on the Chiefs, not even his

1270
01:06:22,640 --> 01:06:25,600
Speaker 2: Jets or like two drops. They've been picked two times

1271
01:06:25,640 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 2: in targeted him, three fumbles, one out of the end zone,

1272
01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 2: a muff punt, three carries negative two yards, two fumbles,

1273
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 2: and then excluding the meetings Week eighteen game, he had

1274
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:41,720
Speaker 2: hang targets for forty six yards, thirteen touches forty forty yards,

1275
01:06:42,240 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 2: no touchdowns, and like negative rushing yardage, multiple turnovers. I

1276
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 2: mean it could not possibly.

1277
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:54,560
Speaker 3: He had one catch for two yards, one carry for

1278
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 3: one yard, and two fumbles. One of the worst all

1279
01:06:57,880 --> 01:06:59,280
Speaker 3: time stat lines.

1280
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 2: I might take a shot on him, but yeah, no,

1281
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:04,640
Speaker 2: I think it makes sense. DFS as well. Yeah, ones,

1282
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:07,120
Speaker 2: but you might put you might be a scratch. I'm

1283
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:09,880
Speaker 2: gonna go out and say, uh yeah, I would bet

1284
01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:12,440
Speaker 2: those at your own risk. But I think Hardman, you

1285
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:16,040
Speaker 2: know these worth a dark throat DFS anytime touchdown things

1286
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 2: like that.

1287
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:19,200
Speaker 3: So uh yeah, I'll throw a dart Hardman and James.

1288
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:23,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be doing James and probably maybe I'll go

1289
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:26,520
Speaker 2: Harmon to Bray and Bell. But that is going to

1290
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:30,080
Speaker 2: wrap it for us here on the Action Network podcast

1291
01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:34,040
Speaker 2: presented by bet MGM. We'll be back here lots of

1292
01:07:34,080 --> 01:07:36,880
Speaker 2: other episodes leading up to Super Bowl fifty eight to

1293
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:38,920
Speaker 2: have you covered from every angle. We got trends, we've

1294
01:07:38,920 --> 01:07:42,560
Speaker 2: got the proper Palooza best bets, uh and uh of

1295
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 2: course you got the six pack already. H Kerner and

1296
01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:48,720
Speaker 2: I also have a pot on the Fantasy Flex where

1297
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:50,680
Speaker 2: we talk some some early props if you want to

1298
01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:54,200
Speaker 2: check that out. And of course Stuck talking college hoops

1299
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 2: over on Big Bets on Campus every Monday and Friday.

1300
01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:03,800
Speaker 2: Stuck is on Twitter at Stucky two formerly Twitter, I

1301
01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:06,840
Speaker 2: guess X now at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybaum.

1302
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:08,760
Speaker 2: We're at those same handles on a free, award winning

1303
01:08:08,840 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 2: Action Network app. Also make sure you follow our guy,

1304
01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:15,840
Speaker 2: Nick Giffen, Nick Underscore Giffin, really worth to follow, real

1305
01:08:15,920 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 2: sharp guy. And until next time, thank you for listening,

1306
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 2: and let's get this money.

1307
01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 1: Hellt Go.

1308
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1309
01:08:34,400 --> 01:08:36,920
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1310
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:39,559
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1311
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:40,360
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler