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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Tom King and Paul Swinney worldwide right now. With Edward

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Speaker 2: Morris definitive at citing group for years, they threw him up.

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Speaker 2: Jane called him up. He went down to his office

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Speaker 2: and said, I see you. Well, that's not quite what

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Speaker 2: it happened. He's iconic in oil and of course with

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Speaker 2: a geopolitical study to it, has worked with a consul

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Speaker 2: and foreign relations and you know, I'm like, okay, he

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Speaker 2: can't retire. Where's he going to land? Yeah? And what's

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Speaker 2: so cool about hard training is this is Amorada Hesse

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Speaker 2: from a million years ago. And then oak Tree Management

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Speaker 2: took out Amarada's interest. So there's a heritage here of

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Speaker 2: global oil along with the intellectual acuity of oak Tree.

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Speaker 2: And they've picked up ed Morris because he was looking

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Speaker 2: for a job around and the doctor Morris joins us

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Speaker 2: this morning, where ed Morre's congratulations on the due effort.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad to see you. You slowed down to a

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Speaker 2: sixty hour week. But where's the marginal geopolitical interest right now?

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Speaker 2: Which region, which country, which part of brent crude is

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Speaker 2: the most interest to Edward Morse?

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Speaker 1: I think it really is the Middle East. And it's

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Speaker 1: the Middle East for obvious reasons, not just because of

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Speaker 1: what's happening in Israel, but the after math of all

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Speaker 1: of that, and struggles internally and externally involving Iran and Iraq,

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Speaker 1: and of course we've got Saudi Arabia, which is along

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Speaker 1: with Russia, leading the charge with opek plus. So if

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Speaker 1: you look at the politics of managing markets and the

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Speaker 1: risks to the management of markets, the Middle East is

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Speaker 1: the main focus. But you know, honestly, if you're trading

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Speaker 1: in the Western Hemisphere and you're trading around Houston and

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Speaker 1: you look at a new Mexican refinery that's likely to open,

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Speaker 1: you know, the sweet sour relationship with the US Gulf

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Speaker 1: Coast is also changing sods some way you are. Globally,

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Speaker 1: it's really the Middle East. You know.

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Speaker 2: I was talking to Jane and I said, why'd you

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Speaker 2: let him go? I mean, he had the call of

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Speaker 2: the pandemic. Everybody else Paul is looking for one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty dollars barrel oil and Mors is up on

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Speaker 2: the soapbox screen and know you're wrong, We're going down

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Speaker 2: to sixty or seventy whatever. It was at massive call

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Speaker 2: as well. Do you see and pushing against that a

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Speaker 2: nascent global demand that gets us to this Brent crew

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Speaker 2: ninety or higher.

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Speaker 1: Well, I don't think it's the demand side, tom, I

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Speaker 1: think it's really the supply side. I think it's a

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Speaker 1: combination of factors. On the supply side. That combination of

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Speaker 1: factors is a restraint that major producers are having and

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Speaker 1: putting crude oil into the market, and the distortions in

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Speaker 1: the market that need to be worked out, and they

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Speaker 1: will be worked out, that come from the blockages of

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Speaker 1: the Suis Canal and leading. You know, SEU MED pipeline

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Speaker 1: is the only way to really get sustainable flows into

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Speaker 1: the Med and out of the MED from the Middle

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Speaker 1: East and through the Middle East. So we're going to have,

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Speaker 1: as we did with Russia Ukraine, working out of freight

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Speaker 1: rates and working out of that distortion weighing on prices eventually.

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Speaker 1: And what we don't really know is what the response

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Speaker 1: is going to be on the demand side with respect

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Speaker 1: to buying oil from the Middle East and elsewhere. Particularly

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Speaker 1: in China. We've got a country that has shifted its

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Speaker 1: gears as a major importer, shifting its skiers in terms

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Speaker 1: of deciding for geopolitical reasons, it's going to be building

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Speaker 1: a massive inventory. It's we reckon roughly another five hundred

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Speaker 1: million barrels of storage capacity can be filled. All of

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Speaker 1: storage in China is strategic and the yet to high prices,

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Speaker 1: China is not only not going to be importing more

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Speaker 1: than they consume, they're going to be exporting. That's the

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Speaker 1: pattern that we've learned to anticipate, and we should learn

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Speaker 1: to anticipate it as oil breaches ninety dollars, which looks

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Speaker 1: like an almost certain in the next couple of months.

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Speaker 3: And one of the things that is relatively new in

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Speaker 3: the global oil space is the fact that the US

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Speaker 3: has gone from being a net importer to a net exporter.

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Speaker 3: Why don't our friends done and I don't know, Texas

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Speaker 3: and Oklahoma just start fracking some more oil.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that's exactly what's going to happen. You

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Speaker 1: have several new incentives to frack more. One of them

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Speaker 1: is where the price is, where the flid curves are,

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Speaker 1: and where you can make money if you're a publicly

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Speaker 1: created company by shifting to rapid response petroleum production. And

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Speaker 1: then there's on top of that, the technological advances that

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Speaker 1: are being made. There lots of talks on your shows

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Speaker 1: and others about the revolutionary impacts of artificial intelligence. Artificial

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Speaker 1: intelligence is also working its way into the oil batch,

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Speaker 1: and that artificial intelligence is bringing up productivity levels in

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Speaker 1: terms of how do you manage fracking crews, how do

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Speaker 1: you manage track production or track utilization? Uh, And I

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Speaker 1: think we're going to see a response to that. We

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Speaker 1: had basically a worldwide webinar from SMP earlier in a

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Speaker 1: few days ago in which they said, you know, their

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Speaker 1: their their deck deck increase in the US production of

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Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand barrels a day may have to be

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Speaker 1: revised upward because of the high prices that we're now seeing.

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Speaker 3: So how about OPEK plus. What is the role of

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Speaker 3: OPEC plus now in the global marketplace?

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Speaker 1: Well, OPECK plus is a response to the failure of

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Speaker 1: OPEK OPEK and I have written about this and nauseam

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Speaker 1: always wrong that we're seeing the end of OPEC. But

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Speaker 1: the survival of OPEC dependent upon bringing in Russia and

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Speaker 1: Central Asian countries and other non OPEC members. So they

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Speaker 1: you know, they've got a very big hold on the market. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And then and their aim is to maximize revenue and

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Speaker 1: not to maximize them too much where they get a

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Speaker 1: drop in oil demand. So that's its role. And they're

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Speaker 1: going to stall as long as they can to see

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Speaker 1: where prices are going. Before you know, lifting the thing.

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Speaker 1: We will see whether they lift it in June.

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Speaker 2: And I got two two minutes left. Do you drive

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Speaker 2: an electric car? Do you drive an electric car or

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Speaker 2: a hybrid?

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Speaker 1: I drive a Tesla?

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Speaker 2: You drive a Tesla? See I knew that well ed

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Speaker 2: Morres on electric cars? Is the bloom off the rose?

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Speaker 2: Or do you think there's an immediate sustainability this say

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Speaker 2: President Biden would want an immediate sustainability. I see it

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Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom, I see it in Europe. Does

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Speaker 2: Edmore's think they're here to stay or is it one off?

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Speaker 2: And we go back to ye to the internal combustion engine.

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Speaker 1: I doubt think we're going to see it rush back

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Speaker 1: the internal combustion engines. We may see a rush into

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Speaker 1: hybrid vehicles. We're certainly see public policy in the city

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Speaker 1: that we live in or work in is one where

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Speaker 1: we're seeing delivery vans based on fossil fuels and buses

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Speaker 1: based purely on fossil fuels being eliminated, and hybrid vehicles

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Speaker 1: are certainly one way to go, and on electric It

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Speaker 1: depends on which country you're in. China certainly is seeing

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Speaker 1: an end to gasoline demand because of their ev policy.

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Speaker 1: The US isn't because we're not short distance drivers. We're

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Speaker 1: long distance drivers, and drivers are awaiting technological change to

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Speaker 1: see a long and lasting battery in terms of miles driven.

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Speaker 1: But I can tell you it is the most fun

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Speaker 1: car I've ever driven, even better than the MGS I

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Speaker 1: used to drive.

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Speaker 2: There you go and yours. I can just see him

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Speaker 2: in the MGTD. Oh that was the one on the

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Speaker 2: wooden slats in the bottom. My father wouldn't let me

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Speaker 2: buy it. Ed Morris's father less short high one, Ed Morris,

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Speaker 2: wonderful to speak to. Congratulations on this important position at

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Speaker 2: hard treading, mister Morris on our marginal pair earl and

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Speaker 2: oiled