Speaker 1: It's going to be at least a matter of several weeks.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's unpredictable, but if you look at historically
Speaker 1: how these things work, it'll likely be anywhere from a
Speaker 1: few weeks top to eight weeks or more. At least
Speaker 1: a couple of months of this probably likely. Yeah, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we'd like to welcome to the Armstrong and Getty Show.
Speaker 1: Dr Dean Blomberg, the Chief of Pediatric Diseases at the
Speaker 1: University of California Davis. You see Davis Children's Hospital. Dr Blomberg,
Speaker 1: how are you, sir? Good? How are you excellent? We're
Speaker 1: grateful that you took a little time to come on today.
Speaker 1: We have all sorts of questions, but as long as
Speaker 1: you're the chief of pediatric diseases, do you have any
Speaker 1: idea to APPI deemeologists have any idea why children, thank god,
Speaker 1: seemed to not be as affected as adults by the coronavirus. Well,
Speaker 1: we're not sure, but we're familiar with other infections that
Speaker 1: behave similarly, like hepatitis A or West Nile virus or
Speaker 1: even mononucleosis. Children seem to be affected very mildly or
Speaker 1: often asymptomatic with those infections, and it's really older individuals
Speaker 1: who are hit much harder. Yeah, as a parent a
Speaker 1: couple of young kids, that does lower the crisis level
Speaker 1: on this thing for me, right, absolutely. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: we're also worried about so many things, but it is
Speaker 1: one less thing to worry about. Well, listen, I took
Speaker 1: just enough microbio to be dangerous. But is it something
Speaker 1: to do with their immune systems or their lung function
Speaker 1: or what? Do you have any idea? Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it's it's probably both of those. It's probably that their
Speaker 1: lungs are healthy and their immune systems. Either their immune
Speaker 1: systems are stronger and they're able to fight this off better.
Speaker 1: Or it's also possible that they haven't had um much
Speaker 1: experience with similar viruses, so their immune systems haven't been
Speaker 1: primed um yet and so they fight off the virus differently. Interesting.
Speaker 1: That is interesting. Yeah, and I'm hoping science leaps ahead
Speaker 1: as they figure these things out. It's like my kids,
Speaker 1: because they've got so many other colds and flues currently,
Speaker 1: there's not room for another one. There you go. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: So let's talk about vaccines briefly. I think we've all
Speaker 1: heard that it will take at least a year to
Speaker 1: get a vaccine going, why does it take that long? Well,
Speaker 1: we don't have any coronavirus vaccines. It's different with influenza.
Speaker 1: So on two thousand nine, when we had H one
Speaker 1: N one, we know how to make influenza vaccines, and
Speaker 1: we could just plug that one into the pipeline. We
Speaker 1: knew we'd have a vaccine within three to six months.
Speaker 1: But we don't have a pipeline for coronavirus vaccines um,
Speaker 1: and so we really have to start from scratch. Is
Speaker 1: there a particular number that makes sense for these gatherings?
Speaker 1: Because there are states, county cities, whatever has said no people, no,
Speaker 1: no gatherings over thousands, Some people say no gatherings over five,
Speaker 1: some people say no gatherings over to fifty. Does that
Speaker 1: make sense to you, because it seems like to me,
Speaker 1: if you've got forty people in a room close together,
Speaker 1: that's a problem. Also, absolutely, Yeah, these numbers are arbitrary.
Speaker 1: Um you know that. Yeah, yeah, but obviously you know,
Speaker 1: it just depends on your threshold, and so it depends
Speaker 1: how worried public officials are and the penetration of the
Speaker 1: virus in the community. So, for example, we know that
Speaker 1: that California, Washington, and New York are real hotspots right now,
Speaker 1: um from the testing, although we don't know other places
Speaker 1: that are affected in the US because there really hasn't
Speaker 1: been that much testing. Do we know why the normal
Speaker 1: flu tends to go away every spring? It has to
Speaker 1: do with temperature and humidity, and it also has to
Speaker 1: do with social um interactions, so that people get outside more,
Speaker 1: they're less crowded inside. And so we're hoping that coronavirus
Speaker 1: just naturally dies down as the weather warms up. But
Speaker 1: we don't know if that's going to happen. And I'll
Speaker 1: go back again to influenza H one and one in
Speaker 1: two thousand nine. Remember that one started in the spring
Speaker 1: and in the summer we it really ramped up and
Speaker 1: we had increased transmission. So we're not sure that coronavirus
Speaker 1: is going to go away in the summer. And at
Speaker 1: helping I was rooting for that and that killed how
Speaker 1: many people? The number I saw the number an earlier day.
Speaker 1: It was a ton of people. And it didn't get
Speaker 1: near the attention. This is no, it didn't, But um,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that's because we thought we had
Speaker 1: more control over it because we did expect a vaccine
Speaker 1: and we have anti virals available for influenza, and we
Speaker 1: don't have anything available for this right now. Dr Dean
Speaker 1: Bloomberg is the Chief Pediatric Diseases at the u C.
Speaker 1: Davis Children's Hospital, also head of Infection Control at Shriner's
Speaker 1: Hospital for Children in Northern California. And and by the way,
Speaker 1: just as an a side, if you don't support the
Speaker 1: Shriners Hospitals, I'm talking to the audience there. They do
Speaker 1: miraculous work. It's really a wonderful organization. But um, you
Speaker 1: mentioned that it's possible that the sunlight and humidity and
Speaker 1: humidity will help kill off the virus. That study that
Speaker 1: got so much attention that the virus can live for
Speaker 1: three days on stainless steel and the rest of it.
Speaker 1: I've heard medical authorities saying, look, that's in a lab condition.
Speaker 1: In the real world, that probably won't last nearly that long.
Speaker 1: But what's your take on that The vast majority of
Speaker 1: transmission occurs via the respiratory route, so coughing and sneezing
Speaker 1: and being close to somebody who's symptomatic. Yes, the virus
Speaker 1: can survive on surfaces, but we don't even know it
Speaker 1: what concentration on the surface that it's going to be infectious,
Speaker 1: So that plays a very small role. That's that's really
Speaker 1: interesting because there's so much focus on wiping down door
Speaker 1: handles and all that sort of stuff. But you're saying,
Speaker 1: the most likely way I'm going to get it is
Speaker 1: being in a room or so many coughs and I
Speaker 1: breathe it in. Yeah, within six feet of somebody, because
Speaker 1: those respiratory droplets are pretty big and so gravity takes
Speaker 1: over and then they end up falling to the ground.
Speaker 1: I'm happy they stay six ft away from everyone. These
Speaker 1: are high times from missing throws. Those pictures that you
Speaker 1: see of people like in in those biohazard suits that
Speaker 1: are spraying spraying down outdoor areas, I think that's men
Speaker 1: to inspire confidence than than actually do anything interesting. And
Speaker 1: if that works economically speaking, is probably worth the effort.
Speaker 1: But so doesn't a side doctor. Does it make you insane?
Speaker 1: Taking in medical news in the mainstream media, Well, you know,
Speaker 1: I get a lot of news in the mainstream media
Speaker 1: that from the medical things because a lot of things
Speaker 1: are slow to come out in the medical um in
Speaker 1: the medical literature. But still the half wits on table news.
Speaker 1: Let's be honest with each other. I gotta think of
Speaker 1: the stuff you see on TV, for instance, you think
Speaker 1: that's not right, that's not close to right, that's half right. Well,
Speaker 1: I don't know, seems like a bit much, but yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean talk radio we exaggerate everything speaking of it.
Speaker 1: Dr Dean Blomberg is the chief of pediatric diseases that
Speaker 1: you see Davis Children's Home. But my final question is
Speaker 1: is there something, as an expert, like, is there a
Speaker 1: line that would get crossed where you'd think, oh, this
Speaker 1: is even bigger than we thought. Is there something like
Speaker 1: that or is it already happened. I think it's already happened.
Speaker 1: And the balance is that we're all susceptible to this
Speaker 1: virus because nobody has ever had this before. Nobody's ever
Speaker 1: and exposed to it before, so we could all get
Speaker 1: it and that's the scary part. And on the other hand,
Speaker 1: the vast majority of people who get it are going
Speaker 1: to have mild disease, So you know, the panic is
Speaker 1: somewhere in between those two. But the point is, and
Speaker 1: this probably bears repeating, for people like ourselves who tend
Speaker 1: to be a little more skeptical, a little more cynical,
Speaker 1: not easily frightened. The point is we need to keep
Speaker 1: the total number of cases low enough that the severe
Speaker 1: cases don't overwhelm our our unit units, in our our
Speaker 1: supply ventilators. Correct. Yeah, absolutely so. You might have heard
Speaker 1: of the flattening of the curve, and the idea is
Speaker 1: that we don't want everybody to get sick all at once.
Speaker 1: We know cases are going to increase in the coming weeks,
Speaker 1: but if they increase, for it, really rapidly, then this
Speaker 1: could overwhelm the healthcare system. And remember, healthcare workers are
Speaker 1: part of the community too, and they could get affected.
Speaker 1: And if they're affected, then there's even less healthcare workers
Speaker 1: to take care of sick people. Well said Dr Dean Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: We appreciate your time very much. Excellent job. I hope
Speaker 1: we can stay in touch. That'd be great. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Thanks well done, Armstrong and Jetty