1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: Why from our nation's came this budget thing is going 2 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: to do nothing Space Force. I still think it's interesting 3 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: President Trump not playing his cards yet. Headlines Policy and 4 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: Politics colliding Floomberg Sound On, The Insiders, the Influencers, the insides. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: I would rather see a congressional solution. It's part of 6 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: my DNA. The Senate map in looks a lot different 7 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: than it looked in. You really have a divide within 8 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: Team Trump. The present has to do exactly what people 9 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: send him here to do, which is to get it done. 10 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg 11 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: one and one oh five point seven f m h 12 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: D two. I'm Jim Grasso sitting in for Kevin's Sorelli. 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: The House Judiciary Committee recommends the impeachment of Donald Trump 14 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 1: in a party line vote today, and the Supreme Court 15 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: agrees to hear those cases involving subpoenas for Trump's financial records. 16 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: In the UK, a sweeping victory for Boris Johnson gives 17 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: him a mandate to complete Brexit, and details of the 18 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: US China trade deal are still murky. Well, it's been 19 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: quite a week. A trade deal, a UK election, and 20 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: of course impeachment. After marathon sessions yesterday, the House Judiciary 21 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: Committee recommended the impeachment of Donald Trump in a party 22 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 1: line vote this morning that took less than half an 23 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: hour and reflected the bitter partisan disagreement. Just hours later, 24 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: Trump declared the impeachment vote and embarrassment to our country. 25 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: I think it's a horrible thing to be using the 26 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: tool of impeachment, which is supposed to be used in 27 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: an emergency, and it would seem many many, many years apart, 28 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 1: to be using this for a perfect phone call where 29 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 1: the president of that country said there was no pressure whatsoever, 30 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: didn't even know what we were talking about. Uh, it 31 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: was perfect. So President Trump, sticking to the way he 32 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: has described that conversation from the beginning as perfect. Joining 33 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: me tonight, Mark Ross, CEO of Charricul Global, Emily Wilkins, 34 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg government reporter and Eli Yoakley political reporter for Morning Consult. So, Emily, 35 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: I'll start with you, because committee chair Jerry Nadler recessed 36 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 1: without taking a vote last night and the Republicans were 37 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: none too happy about that. So what what was your 38 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: impression of the vote today? Well, the vote today when 39 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 1: pretty much how we expected. All the Democrats voted in 40 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: favor of the articles of the impeachment, all the Republicans 41 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: voted to oppose the party line vote, and now we're 42 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: going to see the process move on to the floor 43 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: of the House. That vote at this point is going 44 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: to be scheduled for Wednesday, and we're going to see 45 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,079 Speaker 1: one more hearing on this. The bill the articles rather 46 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: calm before the Rules Committee on Tuesday night, and it 47 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: sounds like members there that also might be a very 48 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 1: long hearing of members there will be able to sort 49 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: of say their piece on whether they support or oppose 50 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: the articles. So mark the way the Democrats have handled this. 51 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: Do you think do you approve of their strategy or 52 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: do you think too many hearings too much of the 53 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: same thing? Well? I did, actually, I said on the 54 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,679 Speaker 1: show in September that I predicted that Trump would be 55 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: impeached either by this Congress or certainly the next Congress. 56 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: So I totally approve of what the Democrats have done. 57 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: I think um clearly, anybody who's taken even the most 58 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: basic constitutional law classes would realize that the president has 59 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: gone too far. And the whole article to checks and 60 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 1: balances system that we have here in the United States 61 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: demanded simply that the House Representatives had to do something. 62 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: I mean, this behavior is not a hoax. It's very problematic, 63 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: and it also set a tone and you know, an 64 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: indication to President Trump if he is reelected, this behavior 65 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: is not acceptable. So Eli, it doesn't seem as if 66 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: President Trump, despite the fact that he is most likely 67 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: going to be impeached by next week, thinks that there's 68 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: anything wrong with his with his behavior. In fact, Rudy 69 00:03:54,880 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: Giuliani showed up at the White House today prettyly after 70 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: the impeachment vote. Yeah, well, voters disagree with him. Release 71 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 1: some polling earlier this weekend Morning Concil that found about 72 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: half of voters think that Trump abuses power in his 73 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: dealings with Ukraine. I mean, the majority of the American 74 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: public does not agree with the way Trump has handled this. 75 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: They support the Democrats impeachment probe, and those numbers are 76 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: pretty solid. I mean, since the impeachment inquiry began in October, 77 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 1: these numbers have been basically the same. About half the 78 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: American public supports impeaching Donald Trump, they support the Senate 79 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: voting to remove him, and Trump's arguments on this have 80 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: not moved voters at all, but no arguments have moved 81 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 1: the Republicans. And it seems as if unless something, I 82 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: don't know something, what would have to happen emily to 83 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: have any Republicans in the Senate, you know, go from 84 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: the party line at this point, it sounds like it 85 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: would have to be something pretty drastic. You know, most 86 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 1: Senators have refrained from commenting at this point on how 87 00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: they might vote. They're trying to be the impartial jurors. 88 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: But if you look at the House of Republicans, you know, 89 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: a number of them have actually come out and expressed 90 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 1: some concerns about the president's phone call, saying that it 91 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: wasn't perfect, that he shouldn't have done what you've done, 92 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: what he did, But most of them say that it's 93 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: not an impeachable offense, that it does not rise to 94 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: that level. And you know, I was in Congress the 95 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: other day trying to talk to a couple more moderate Republicans, 96 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: and all of them plan on opposing Trump's impeachment. I 97 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: think it's interesting, Uh, if I go back to the 98 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: Clinton impeachment, when those articles were sent down, the Democrats 99 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: and the Capitol Hill all came down to the Rose 100 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: Garden and there was a impromptu press conference and President 101 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: Colon was surrounded by his entire caucus, his teammates, if 102 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: you will, And none of that is happening with President Trump. 103 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: I mean I've yet to see a outside of Fox 104 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 1: News and a discussion between Mitch McConnell and Seawan Hannity, 105 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 1: any kind of rousing support for the president. I mean, 106 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: the thing is, you really, this is not a great 107 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: situation for the president. Sure, all the indications indicate that 108 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 1: he's going to be acquitted, but no president, no president 109 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: wants to be dealing with the situation. And longer the 110 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: stretches out, who knows it's going to fall out. I 111 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: mean just this week, you know, the President is meeting 112 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: with the Russian foreign minister. Giuliani's in the office. I 113 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 1: mean there is a cast of characters that could still 114 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: come forward. You know, those those Fox News interviews matter though. 115 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 1: I mean this, this drives the Republican base in a 116 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 1: big way we've seen. I mean you look at many 117 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: congressional districts and uh, four in ten voters listened to 118 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: Fox News every day. I mean that's how into dozen 119 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: nineteen public officials are speaking to the American people, and 120 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: you've seen these Republicans on these committees really stand up 121 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: for Trump strongly. I think that matters in a big way, 122 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: maybe even more than a Rose Garden press conference might. 123 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: And I have to ask whether Trump is learning from 124 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: this impeachment if he has Rudy Giuliani coming to the 125 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: White House and apparently, according to Think it was the 126 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal reported that he was calling Giuliani while 127 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 1: his plane was still in the process of landing. So Mark, 128 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: despite the fact that the public maybe fifty fifty split, 129 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem as if the president sees the problem 130 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: with what he's been doing. Yeah, but I mean the 131 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: president has a pattern. You know, the initial if we 132 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 1: go back to the very beginning of the Trump administration, 133 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: the famous June meeting during the campaign. You know, initially 134 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: we're all told that Donald Jr. Was meeting with these 135 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: Russians to talk about adoptions, right, and that was all 136 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: scrubbed and debated, and remember that that seems like a 137 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: lifetime ago. Well that did happen, and the President, you know, 138 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: on Air Force one, with his top team, decided to 139 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: you know, get on the same page and get the 140 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: message together. So you know, the idea that Rudy Giuliani 141 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 1: is in the White House today is just bizarre to say, 142 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: at least, like no proper campaign professional would suggest that 143 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: this is the proper strategy to show confidence Emily. Another 144 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: thing that happened today as we saw some sound from 145 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell from an interview he did, and he basically said, 146 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: he did say this, I'm going to take my cues 147 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: from the president's lawyer, is about the impeachment trial ahead. Now, 148 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: normally you would expect that both sides would at least 149 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: give the appearance of being neutral on what's going to happen, 150 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: uh coming up, and certainly the Senate, the man who's 151 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: going to be deciding the major issues of this. Are 152 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: you hearing any any kick back from that? You know? 153 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: I think Mitch McConnell also mentioned that, you know, at 154 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: this point, he said, we know how this is going 155 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: to go, that they don't have Democrats do not have 156 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: the votes um to remove Trump from office, and that 157 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: you know he's basically going to be acquitted. UM. Obviously 158 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: we don't know know that. Uh, none of us have 159 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: a future ball crystal ball and can see the future. 160 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: But at this point it really doesn't kind of seems 161 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: like that's going to be the way that it is, 162 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: and I think you see McConnell just being very clear 163 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: about that. Um. You know, he's i think always, at 164 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: least for the last couple of sessions, been very much 165 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: in stuff with the White House and with President Trump 166 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: on most issues. Eli, you wanted some final words there 167 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: about about Mitch McConnell's role here. Yes, sure, Look, look, um, 168 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 1: he's got an election coming up next year in Kentucky, 169 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: red state. But he needs Donald Trump just like everybody else. 170 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: And it's hard, it's really hard to see see a 171 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: number of Republicans breaking from the President on this. This 172 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: would be a step too far, I think for a 173 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: lot of folks coming up. Boris Johnson gets a mandate 174 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: to complete Brexit with a really sweeping, overwhelming wind might 175 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: say down. With the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on iTunes, 176 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. 177 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: I'm June Grosso. You're listening to Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 178 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Surrelate on Bloomberg and one oh 179 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: five point seven FM HD two. This is one of 180 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: the most successful leaks to the Trump presidency U S 181 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: m C A China military, the third consecutive military pay raise, 182 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: third consecutive investment in our mid over seven hundred billion dollars. 183 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: They have more resources, more respect, and d A a 184 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: paid family leave space force. And it's only Friday. Who 185 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: knows what we'll do tomorrow. That's uh White House counselor 186 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: Kelly and Conway apparently forgetting about the impeachment. As she 187 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 1: recounted the banner week it was at sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. 188 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Mark Ross, CEO of Charricul Global, Emily 189 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: Wilkins Bloomberg Government Congress reporter, and Eli Yokeley, political reporter 190 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 1: from Morning Consult. So, the U. S. And China did 191 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: agree to the details of a first phase of a 192 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 1: broader trade agreement, in a move that will see the 193 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 1: US reduced tariffs that were scheduled to come up, so 194 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: at least temporarily calms the fears of an escalating trade 195 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: war between the world's two largest economies. But Mark, the 196 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: details are sketchy. Uh yeah, I think you're being generous. 197 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: You know, it's been called the Historic Deal, but there's 198 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: there's no public ceremony, no public texts, there's no handshakes. Uh. 199 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: You know, we've seen no really agreement on either side 200 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: or even within the administration. What's going on. I mean, 201 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: I think the most positive thing uh I can say 202 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: about what has happened over the last twenty four hours 203 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: is that clearly both sides of de escalated this trade friction. Uh. 204 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: Stopping additional tariffs is definitely a positive situation. But um, 205 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: where we go from here? You know, when his face 206 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: to start? When are these soybeans are gonna be bought? 207 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 1: How it's trying to unprotect IP protection? I mean, they're 208 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: the thing about the US channel relationship. There's a lot 209 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:34,079 Speaker 1: of complex issues. There's nearly one sectors of the Chinese 210 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: economy that are off limits to foreign companies. Uh. These 211 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: are issues that are front center and that need to 212 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: be addressed. But certainly I would say it's a positive 213 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: step in the sense that we've stopped the friction. Emily Democrats, 214 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: of course, criticized the deal and said a minorily Chuck 215 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: Schumer said that Trump sold out for a temporary and 216 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: unreliable promise from China to purchase soybeans. Any clues as 217 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: to why the agreement was it just to make sure 218 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: that those tariffs didn't come into play and then escalate 219 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 1: the trade war more Well, I think we're still seeing 220 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: a lot of details from the trade agreement slowly, slowly 221 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: began to come out on this late Friday afternoon. Uh, 222 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: I mean, we're seeing that, and then we're also beginning 223 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: to see the details from the U S m c A, 224 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: the United States, Mexico and Canada agreement. The White House 225 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 1: just sent that over to the House and the text 226 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: has just been released. So we've got Bloomberg reporters going 227 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: through the entire two fifty pages right now and trying 228 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: to figure out what the most important bits and pieces 229 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 1: of it are. And so part of it is that 230 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: Trump is trying to save some very important sectors of 231 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: the economy too to him in his re election, of course, 232 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: the farmers. And so I think that, um Ali, do 233 00:12:55,640 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: you have a pole coming out from morning consult that's 234 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: come out about the trade war. Well, we found that 235 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: consumer confidence among agriculture workers has lagged and and in 236 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 1: the last few weeks has started started to improve. Um Look, 237 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: this is a big deal for Donald Trump. The economy. 238 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: Voters trust Donald Trump, more than any Democratic presidential candidate 239 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: right now to handle the economy. Um, this is something 240 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: that to get him across the finish line and all 241 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: this impeachment stuff, um is pretty necessary for him to 242 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 1: flex that he's gotten some things done. Um. And and 243 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: look politically for Democrats, there's there's questions among the liberals, 244 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: but among the folks who won the majority for the 245 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 1: House Democrats, I mean giving uh, showing that you can 246 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: kind of walk and chew gun, that you can pass 247 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: a economic bill like this at the same time impeachment 248 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: is happening is probably a political win for them to 249 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: So Mark, my question is this, this steal is is 250 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,599 Speaker 1: right now, we don't know how how it's going to 251 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: work out, what what kind of benefits farmers and others 252 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: are go me to see. But come election time and 253 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: come November, is this still going to be a win 254 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: for Donald Trump? Um? Sure. I mean if you listen 255 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: to him, I'm sure he'll say it's a win. Um. 256 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 1: You know, I want to win. This is true, It's 257 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: always a win. This is great. Um. I mean I 258 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: would say, no, I've been very barish on this. I 259 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: mean talking to some of my friends that you know, 260 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 1: do this on a daily basis. One of them said, 261 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: this is a nothing burger. Um, you know, they can 262 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: try to spin it as they want. But one of 263 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: them suggested that the Team Trump chickened out and caved 264 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: in on tariffs. You've seen what Chuck Schumer has said. 265 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: I don't know, it's you know, it's a long time 266 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: to the election. Frankly, Um, even Cudlow called this a 267 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: living document. I mean, you know, like exactly, I'm gonna 268 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: just stand on top of Hrana. Um, it is positive, 269 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: it's a win. I mean, somebody's uh Team Trump, their 270 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: day traders. I mean, you just heard the litany of 271 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: what Kelly Kelly, Kelly Connoy was saying, what they achieved 272 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: just this week. Um, I don't know. Can they keep 273 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 1: this going? It's hard to say. I mean, this isn't 274 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: If this was such a historic deal, there'd be pomp 275 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: and circumstances, there would be an official signing ceremony. Trump 276 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: and she would be getting together. It doesn't have all 277 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: the hallmarks of the most historic deals we've seen put 278 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: together by nations. So, Emily, does this remind you of 279 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: any other almost deals that that Trump has has put 280 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: together in the end where he seems to you know, 281 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: give in a lot of to a lot of points. 282 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: That's a good question. Um, I mean this particular one. 283 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: You know, they've been this has been something I've been 284 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: working on for a while. Uh, the negotiations that back 285 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: and forth between the U. S and China. UM, you know, 286 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: I think it is interesting. The part of the agreement 287 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: includes I think it's believe it's fifty billion that China 288 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 1: will buy of US agriculture products, and there are questions 289 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: being raised of exactly how China is going to do that. 290 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 1: I believe in the past the highest amount that they've 291 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: ever purchased, I want to say, was twenty nine billion. 292 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: Are somewhere around there, correct, close to thirty billions, So sure, 293 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: is there another twenty billion out there? What about the 294 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: I P. I mean that was always one of the 295 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: you know, the critical points of this trade deal and 296 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: one of the hardest points. And this doesn't address that 297 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: at all, does it. Well? In China's defense, they have 298 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: made progress within intellectual property rights. It's nowhere near to 299 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: the standard that we enjoy here in the United States. 300 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: And they've made commitments before. Uh, they've said they've made 301 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: commitments in this phase one deal. So that is a positive. UM. 302 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 1: But you know, the challenge with the pr overall is 303 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: that China literally needs to change their laws to enforce 304 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: intellection property rights, and as they move up the economic ladder, 305 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: they're obviously gonna protect that. But UM, I think the 306 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: key thing if I just read today, is that this 307 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: is a stopping you know, we de escalated the tension 308 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: between US and China and maybe going we can see 309 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: some positive engagement between the two sides. So Eli, is 310 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: this a political win in that Trump can now say 311 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: when he tries to get re elected that hey, my 312 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: trade tariffs work. Look what happened. I mean, it's all 313 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,679 Speaker 1: about the headlines for him. I mean, he has headlines 314 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 1: today that says he won, and he gets to go 315 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: sell that case to voters voters every day every day. 316 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: Now in between this, between the China deal and the U. 317 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: S M c A, UM, he can take both of 318 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 1: these out to the parts of the country where he 319 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 1: needs to win. UM. Look, you know, the impeachment has 320 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: not dampened his approval nationwide much in fact among Republicans 321 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: has strengthened. UM. He he is not as weak as 322 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: some might think he is. UM, and a lot of 323 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: that we're seeing is being driven by the economy, and 324 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,199 Speaker 1: so he needs the economy to stay good through two 325 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 1: to pull off a victory. I think. In also politically 326 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 1: in Trump's defense, I think, and you've actually even see 327 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: this what happened with Boris Johnson in the election across 328 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 1: the pond yesterday. Um. Trump has done a really good 329 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 1: job of like stealing, if you will, um, kind of 330 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 1: Democrat talking points. You know, in some ways, whoever wins 331 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: the nomination the Democrat Party, there's not gonna be a 332 00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 1: lot of space between that candidate and President Trump. But 333 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 1: how do they want to deal with shotting to use 334 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: the tariffs? Well, in us U S M t A 335 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: in particular, we've senior Republican senator just put some distance 336 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: between themselves and Trump, and it's been some Democrats who've 337 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: been standing with him on this, which is kind of 338 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 1: interesting moment. Yes, I think that's gonna be interesting, especially 339 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 1: as we look at the Great Lake State, especially in 340 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 1: Michigan and how people vote there. Um, it will be 341 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 1: interesting how it plays out. So today, Yeah, as you said, 342 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: Eli a victory for Trump winning today, getting good headlines, 343 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: so probably positive, but looking deep inside, not really much there. 344 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: There's always a but it seems and coming up we're 345 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: gonna be talking about you brought up Boris Johnson. Uh. 346 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: Some are seeing this as a harbinger for the US 347 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: elections in twenty twenty, which can't make the Democrats very happy. 348 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: I'm June Grosso sitting in for Kevin. So really you're 349 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with 350 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg and one all five point seven 351 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: F M A D two. I am forming a new 352 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 1: government and on Monday MP's will arrive at Westminster forming 353 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 1: new parliament. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is celebrating a 354 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: historic majority for his Conservative Party in parliament. President Trump 355 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: congratulated the prime minister. I've been talking with Mark Ross, 356 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: CEO of Arrical Global, Emily Wilkins, Bloomberg government congress reporter, 357 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 1: and Eli Yoakley political reporter for a morning consult. So Mark. 358 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: According to the Bloomberg News story, Boris Johnson was stunned 359 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: momentarily when he saw the huge victory he was going 360 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 1: to have. Yeah, well, the polls all indicated that the 361 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: Conservatives are going to do well. But nobody really expected 362 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 1: them to do so well. I mean there was ideas 363 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: that he'd come in with a majority of maybe thirty 364 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: thirty five seats, but to get close to the majority 365 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: of eighty, I mean, this is like a realignment. It's 366 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: going to change UK politics for a generation. I mean, really, 367 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 1: we're looking at Boris Johnson probably being Prime Minister now 368 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: for the next two terms for a decade. Um. This 369 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 1: is a major number um breaking down new folks coming 370 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: into the Conservative Party. So a really really big victory 371 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: for Boris Johnson for for a decade. Huh. Suppose Brexit 372 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: does not go as well as he expects. Yeah, it's 373 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: interesting with such a large so I just step back. 374 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 1: I think the first thing that's gonna happen is we're 375 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: definitely gonna see the UK leave the European Union on 376 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: January thirty one. That will happen. They'll you know, do 377 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 1: some preliminary work in December, take the holidays off, come 378 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: back and quickly move out of that. But that means, uh, 379 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 1: you know, we promptly start negotiations of what the future 380 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 1: relationship is between the United Kingdom and the European Union. 381 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: It's interesting today Angela Merkel, the German leader, said that 382 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: now England and now the United Kingdom is a competitor 383 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: on the doorstep of the European Union, almost sending a 384 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 1: message to maybe London and Boris Johnson, like hey, let's 385 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: find a way to work together and make sure that 386 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 1: this is a smooth transition, because this impacts not only 387 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 1: obviously what happens in England, but also in Germany, France, 388 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: Italy and I would even dare say the United States. 389 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 1: Tell me how he worked his magic, because with all 390 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: the problems that with Brexit, and I don't know if 391 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 1: if they've solved the the Irish backstop or anything along 392 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: that line, but how did he manage to convince the 393 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: people of the UK that to go forward and go 394 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: forward with him? I mean, Boris Shatnson. It's really interesting. 395 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: A year ago, who's a backbencher. That means he was 396 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: out of government, he was just like any other member 397 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,879 Speaker 1: of Parliament. And now here we are, he's the prime minister, 398 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: and he's on the doorstep of being the most powerful 399 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: prime minister since Blair, and certainly the most powerful Conservative 400 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: prime minister since Margaret Thatcher. Like I said, he has 401 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: got such a big majority. Um, he'll be in for it. 402 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: Very likely he'll be in for two terms in a 403 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: decade um. I think what is really interesting is they 404 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 1: win after new voters that they normally hadn't gotten before. 405 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: They went into very blue, sorry, very red labor districts. 406 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: They also made the case like listen, let's get Brexit done. 407 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 1: That was said over and over and over again. Uh, 408 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: the Labor Party really had no clear message. Little Democrats 409 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: had no clear message. And Corbin was monumentally disastrous in 410 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 1: terms of his approval ratings and disapproval. I mean, you 411 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 1: couldn't ask for a better candidate for Boris Johns that 412 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: run against you know, some of the disapproval numbers just 413 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,160 Speaker 1: for since November and Corborn high sixties sixty eight, sixty six, 414 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: sixty five, sixty eight. I mean these are monumental numbers. 415 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 1: But a decade though. When I hear a decade for 416 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: a political leader, I am taking aback now. This is 417 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: really I can't impress enough to our listeners, like this 418 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: is a monumental step that has happened, is a huge 419 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 1: inflection point, major transition. Not only is a conservative party 420 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: brought in new voters. If you listen to what Boris 421 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: Johnson was saying today, being much more conciliatory. I mean 422 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: the historic seats that they've now brought in that have 423 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: been labor seats for nearly a hundred years, that are 424 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 1: now part of the Conservative coalition. Uh, it was such 425 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: a large number getting past Brexit. You can really see, 426 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 1: uh Boris Johnson and his team really putting in place 427 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: a whole new dynamic that we haven't seen before in 428 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: British politics. And I would also say, um, just as 429 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 1: it's been very successful, what's gonna happen in Scotland is 430 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: equally interesting. The Scottish National Party had a bang up night. 431 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: They won nearly eight of the seats in UH Scotland 432 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 1: and Nicolas Sturgeon, leader, there's already demanding an independent referendum. 433 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,199 Speaker 1: They've made clear that they want to be a part 434 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 1: of the European Union. So at the same time we 435 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: have all this joy and celebration in London and what's 436 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,360 Speaker 1: happened with the Conservatives winning Westminster things up north, they're 437 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: gonna be very dicey for the Johnson leadership going forward. 438 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: And already he won today. In this afternoon, I was 439 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 1: already seeing the debates about what this means. Is this 440 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: a harbinger for our election? Do you see similarities now? 441 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:57,959 Speaker 1: I do that. There's a lot of people that say, oh, 442 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 1: there's no connection, but I think any political pro was 443 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: clearly watching the results last night. I mean, enough of 444 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: us spend time in London and friends in Westminster, so 445 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 1: you know, monsworing what's happening. There's a lot of folks 446 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,359 Speaker 1: that work on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean on 447 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: campaigns now. And you also saw today from Larry Saboteau 448 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: of Uva, Joe Biden, even Mike Bloomberg all saying listen, 449 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: this is a warning shot if we had left somebody 450 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: who's too far to the left, Um, it's gonna be 451 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: disastrous for the Democratic Party. And like getting back, I 452 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,120 Speaker 1: mean enough is not gonna be talked about. But Corbyn's 453 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: numbers are a disaster of monumental proportions. I mean, he 454 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: is so disliked. I mean you could not ask for 455 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 1: a better opponent for Boris Johnson. I can't repress upon that. Enough. 456 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: All right, Well we still see what happens, and we're 457 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: gonna be talking about our elections coming up here right 458 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: after this break, and just a reminder that you can 459 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on iTunes, at Bloomberg 460 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: dot com, or just by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. 461 00:24:52,720 --> 00:25:00,639 Speaker 1: I'm June Grosse. So you're listening to Bloomberg. This is 462 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg and one 463 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 1: oh five point seven f m h D two. I'm 464 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: June Grass sitting in for Kevin Crelli on this Friday evening. Well, 465 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: seven presidential candidates have qualified for the Democratic debate next week, 466 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 1: but will there be a debate. All of the Democratic 467 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: presidential candidates has said they will not cross a plan 468 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: picket line at the event and they'll skip the event 469 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 1: if there is a picket line. So my guests are 470 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: Eli Yokley, political reporter for Morning Consult, Emily Wilkins Bloomberg 471 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 1: Government Congress Report, and Mark Ross, CEO of Carrico. So, Eli, 472 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 1: it seems like the d n C just can't get 473 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 1: a break because this is the second time they've moved it. 474 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: Isn't they may have to move it. Yeah, we'll see 475 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: what happens in this next week. I mean, if you're 476 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: this union, this is a pretty good timing to stand 477 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 1: up with a strike, Um members, I think if you're 478 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: if you're a Democratic ended up for president, the last 479 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 1: thing you want to do and in December before an election, 480 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: is across a labor union picket lines. So they're gonna 481 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 1: have to figure this out in the next few days. Um, 482 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 1: you know, look, I would anticipite they probably will, but 483 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 1: you know, it's a thousand, nineteen twenty. Things are crazy. 484 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,360 Speaker 1: But this this race has been has been relatively fluid. 485 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: We saw Kamala Harris since the last debate has has 486 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: dropped out. Um. All the other top candidates saw just 487 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,439 Speaker 1: a little bit of an increase, but this has been 488 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,479 Speaker 1: pretty pretty solid. Um, we'll see what if people are 489 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: watching this debate next week, you know we we we 490 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,719 Speaker 1: just released a big project at Warning Console looking how 491 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 1: much voters had seen red and heard about a lot 492 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: of the news of the year, and the last couple 493 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,639 Speaker 1: of debates were the list of things things that voters 494 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 1: is not here a lot about. These were not breaking 495 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 1: through to everybody overall. So um, maybe these will take 496 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: off more as we get into but at least for 497 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 1: these last couple of rounds, these debates have not broken 498 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 1: through the folks. I was gonna say, um, yeah, we're 499 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: talking about fair about that. I mean, is this a 500 00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: convenient way? I don't be sit but is this a 501 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: communi way? Is this a great way for these candidates 502 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 1: who have campaign endlessly we're coming to the end of 503 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: the year that frankly probably want to break. Is this 504 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: a communion way to not debate. I just can't imagine 505 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 1: expecting them not to debate, especially if you're Andrew Gang. 506 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 1: Some of these are the candidates that did Amy quepa charge. 507 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: Some of these candidates that did make the debate stage, 508 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: who are not pulling very high, you cannot imagine them 509 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: not wanting to have one of these national moments. If 510 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,159 Speaker 1: you're Joe Biden, it might be a different story. I 511 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 1: mean maybe if you're Pete Buddha judge this time around, 512 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 1: because I think it's his turn to get a lot 513 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 1: of sharp questions. Mark Um, Absolutely, I think the whole 514 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 1: dust stop between Elizabeth Warren and mayor Pete over you 515 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 1: know his work with McKenzie. You know, even this week 516 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: he's getting more protests about being well. I saw there 517 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,159 Speaker 1: was a chance calling him Wall Street Pete, which I 518 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 1: thought was pretty um work at mackenzie long enough to 519 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: be a bad guy, I guess, But um, I don't know. 520 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 1: It's such such a long season, and um, I don't know. 521 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: And you're right, the numbers are down. Who's watching these debates? 522 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 1: I guess you know you've got activities from I'm going 523 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: to confess I didn't even watch last time because I 524 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: had impeachment fatigue. I just you know, this time, I'll 525 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 1: watch if it happens. But um, you also are not 526 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 1: seeing you know, it's they're not so lively most of 527 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 1: the time. Well that's allowing because I think they're actually 528 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 1: uh serious discussions on like maybe the last recycle with 529 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: the Republicans, uh, legitimate discussions about serious policy, which can 530 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 1: be a little tedious at times. My my hope as 531 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 1: a reporter and somebody who enjoys the processes, we talk 532 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: about something else this time. I mean, a lot of 533 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: the questions the same. Well, it's been a lot of 534 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: the same questions so far. I mean, we've asked the 535 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: same questions about medicare for all the whole time. We 536 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 1: haven't talked a lot about climate change, one of these 537 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: issues that really drives the conversation for young voters, questions 538 00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 1: evolving African American issues have really not taken the forefront 539 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: than women. What about the court a few questions. Things 540 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,719 Speaker 1: are getting very very serious now. I think people can 541 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 1: see with the importance of the next justice. Yeah, it's 542 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 1: made up a pretty small chunk of debate questions so far. 543 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 1: We dropped a big study on this a few weeks ago. Actually, um, 544 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: it's not something moderators have spent a lot of time 545 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 1: looking into. But um, you do have the prospect of 546 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: the next couple of years there will be a Supreme 547 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: Court seat opening up. You've seen even now democratic abacy 548 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 1: groups come out and ask ask the Democratic candidates to 549 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: do what Trump did about a list of names at 550 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 1: a point of the court. So there is definitely an 551 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: activist push for that. But something of the healthcare might 552 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: be kind of interesting. Emily, Let's let's turn to Congress 553 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 1: for a moment um. And there's been a lot of 554 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: talk during the impeachment debates about Democrats losing the majority 555 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: in Congress because of impeachment. Sure, I mean that's something 556 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 1: that I think Republicans are definitely trying to scare up. 557 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 1: And I have to imagine that would be something in 558 00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 1: the back of the mind of a lot of moderate Democrats. 559 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 1: I mean remember in Democrats flipped forty one seats. They 560 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 1: also won thirty one seats in districts that had voted 561 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 1: for Trump in ten and so many of these lawmakers 562 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 1: are trying to now weigh whether they're going to support 563 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: impeaching a president that their constituents voted for. The Last 564 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: time that we did the impeachment process vote, this was 565 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 1: the other month you only saw two two Democrats decided 566 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 1: to oppose going forward. That was Jeff and Andrew of 567 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: New Jersey and Colin Peterson of Minnesota. This time you 568 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,239 Speaker 1: might see more. There's been some discussion that there might 569 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 1: be additional names, although at this point we haven't seen any. 570 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 1: We spoke with a lot of lawmakers before they left 571 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: for the weekend. They said they were going to take time, 572 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 1: they were going to review the documents, they were going 573 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 1: to talk to constituents, they were going to prey on it. 574 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 1: So we'll see, I think when they come back Monday, 575 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 1: or even before then, what their final decisions are. We've 576 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: already seen a number of some of these moderate Democrats 577 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: start coming out in favor of impeachment articles, and so um, 578 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 1: this is I think we're going to be a united 579 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 1: more of uniting vote than a dividing vote for House Democrats. 580 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,959 Speaker 1: The political perils the question that's still open. Although right 581 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 1: now um over a year out or less than a 582 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 1: year out, we're seeing Democrats leading on the generic ballot 583 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 1: in a big way. And so I look, elections the 584 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 1: issues that matter, and elections are often decided in October 585 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 1: and September of the year. Um impeachment is probably a 586 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 1: little bit different, but so we can't forget about what's 587 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 1: to come. The New York Times is reporting that President 588 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 1: Trump is considering talking with his advisors about sitting out 589 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 1: the general election debates. In He says it's because of 590 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: the misgivings about the commission that oversees them. So Mark, 591 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 1: that would mean that we don't need a great debater 592 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 1: or for the Democratic candidate. Yeah, And going back to 593 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: the other side of the pond. During the UK elections, 594 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: Boris Shotson famously sat out an interview with Andrew Neil, 595 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 1: who's one of the legends of interviewing there with the BBC, 596 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 1: and that was seen, as you know obviously about the 597 00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 1: London press lead as being totally outrageous and undignified. But 598 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: it didn't impact Boris Johnson one bit. And I think 599 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 1: it's a real testament that, you know, the structure of 600 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: what's kind of done in the past, it doesn't really 601 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: matter engage in the press. I mean Trump any given time, 602 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 1: sending out a hundred plus tweets in a day. His 603 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 1: ability to command the media attention. Uh, debating in some 604 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: ways doesn't really get him anything. Uh, you're already seen 605 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 1: less people watch. I don't know, it's an interesting strategy. 606 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 1: I don't think you know, it's not gonna hurt him 607 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 1: with his voters and his his supporters. It's gonna hurt 608 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,719 Speaker 1: him maybe with suburban of matter. It's but that might 609 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: not matter. And he tested these political norms before him, 610 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 1: and we still haven't seeing Trump's tax returns. He does 611 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 1: not go out and shake votors hands very often. He 612 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: hasn't done a town hall since when UM. Look that 613 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 1: it's hard to expect him skipping these because we you 614 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 1: know that he loves to fight UM. But folks haven't 615 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: seem to care yet that he's ignoring these norms. But 616 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 1: it's also a testament any given time Trump can say 617 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 1: something and we all go chase it and like it's 618 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: something we have to talk about. I mean, they are 619 00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: truly the masters of being like, let's distract everybody today. Distraction, 620 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 1: definitely distraction. And also he's great at giving people names, 621 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 1: you know, little names that that that seemed to stick 622 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: with them for a long time. So we shall see 623 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 1: what happens. And just to reminder, the Supreme Court is 624 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 1: going to be considering whether those those financial records and 625 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 1: tax returns are going to be revealed to Congress or 626 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 1: to one of the Manhattan da who is investigating Trump. 627 00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 1: So that does it for this Friday. Thank you all. 628 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,719 Speaker 1: That's Mark Cross, CEO of Charrical Global, Eli Yokley political 629 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: reporter for Morning Morning Consult and our own Emily Wilkins 630 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Government Congress reporter. That does it for this edition 631 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,400 Speaker 1: of Sound On. Kevin Sir, really will be back with 632 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: you on Monday. I'm June Grosso. Have a great weekend, 633 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 1: and remember download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on iTunes 634 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. 635 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg ninety nine one