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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: The entire city remains captivated for now a third day

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Speaker 2: by the Signal Gate story, as it's being called, which

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Speaker 2: has some new developments today after The Atlantic decided, after

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Speaker 2: not publishing on Monday the specific details shared by the

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Speaker 2: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in regard to planning strikes in Yemen,

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Speaker 2: to do so today after repeated statements from the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration and officials who were involved in this signal chat

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Speaker 2: that no classified information had been shared and no war

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Speaker 2: plans were discussed. Enter the receipts, including screenshots of this

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Speaker 2: signal chat, and which for one example, Pete Hegsas says,

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Speaker 2: thirteen forty five trigger based F eighteen first strike windows

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Speaker 2: starts target terrorist at his known location, should be on time. Also,

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Speaker 2: strike drones launch mq nines. Those are Reaper drones, Joe.

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Speaker 2: And this of course is after the Director of National

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Speaker 2: Intelligence Tulci Gabbard. The CIA Director John Ratcliffe had suggested

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Speaker 2: in testimony yesterday that no targets were named, no times

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Speaker 2: were given. This may beg to differ, And of course,

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Speaker 2: the person who originated this Signal Group chat is the

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Speaker 2: National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who took to Fox last

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Speaker 2: night to try to explain what happened to you.

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Speaker 3: I take responsibility. I built the I built the group.

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Speaker 4: Okay.

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Speaker 3: So but look, that's the part that we have to

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Speaker 3: figure out, and that's the part that we were embarrassing. Yes,

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Speaker 3: we made a mistake. We're moving forward and we're going

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Speaker 3: to continue to knock.

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Speaker 5: It out of the park for this president.

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Speaker 3: Look at what he's gotten done in under two months.

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Speaker 5: We're moving forward. Except that was before the Atlantic came

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Speaker 5: forth with what Kaylee just described to us. The actual

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Speaker 5: texts from those who were in the chat, including the

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Speaker 5: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Laura Davison is with us now,

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg Politics editor at the table, having spent the better

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Speaker 5: part of twenty four hours reporting on all of this. Laura,

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Speaker 5: it's great to see you. In the hearing in the

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Speaker 5: Senate Intelligence Committee yesterday was followed up on the House

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Speaker 5: side today a Tulsa Gabbert, CIA director Ratcliffe were asked

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Speaker 5: did this conversation include information on weapons packages, targets, or timing.

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Speaker 5: They both said no. Do we now believe that the

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Speaker 5: answer is yes.

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Speaker 6: The receipts certainly show that. And they were asked yesterday,

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Speaker 6: you know, did this include any classified information? They denied

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Speaker 6: there was any classified information in this exchange that was happening.

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Speaker 6: And that's when you saw the Atlantic, which initially said no,

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Speaker 6: we're not going to publish the back and forth here,

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Speaker 6: said okay, we're going to go out and put this

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Speaker 6: forward and let the people decide for themselves, you know,

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Speaker 6: where this information, you know, kind of the sensitivities around

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Speaker 6: this information. Gabbert today back on the hill testifying in

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Speaker 6: front of the House, really inconvenient timing for her, but

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Speaker 6: she is now pointing to oh, well, look, Haig says

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Speaker 6: what it was there. He was sharing this information. He

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Speaker 6: has the ability to classify and dclassify information, so therefore

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Speaker 6: you know, nothing wrong was done. That's her argument. It's

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Speaker 6: the same argument that people may remember from a couple

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Speaker 6: of years ago when classified information was seized from mar

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Speaker 6: A Lago. People said, look, it SAT's up to the

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Speaker 6: president's discretion. Nothing to see here. That's not what you're

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Speaker 6: hearing though, from folks in the intelligence community and as

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Speaker 6: well as from Democrats of course.

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Speaker 2: Well and all the while, President Trump to this point

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Speaker 2: is standing by his team, no suggestion that he's looking

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Speaker 2: for anyone to lose their job over this. He maintains

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Speaker 2: that Mike Waltz, while he made a mistake, is a

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Speaker 2: good man, reiterating that again this morning. And it does

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Speaker 2: seem that maybe the administration is trying to shift the

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Speaker 2: news cycle, if you will, with other announcements. As Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: is reporting, it could be as early as today, Laura,

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Speaker 2: that the President announces long awaited auto tariffs, which he's

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Speaker 2: been teasing for weeks, if not months.

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Speaker 6: Yes, this would be, you know, sort of ahead of

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Speaker 6: that April twenty, that April second data sort of the

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Speaker 6: big reciprocal tariff day. Auto tariffs is one he's been

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Speaker 6: targeting specifically. The White House has not come out and

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Speaker 6: confirmed whether this is happening, but this is one of

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Speaker 6: the key ones. Trump for a long time has talked

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Speaker 6: about wanting to make other countries' car companies, you know,

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Speaker 6: German car companies wanting them to come to the US.

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Speaker 6: So this is what he's targeting here. But this really

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Speaker 6: has the auto industry worried because, especially across North America,

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Speaker 6: these supply chains are very interconnected. Parts and cars cross

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Speaker 6: the border between Mexico, can and the US multiple times.

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Speaker 6: Car dealers are warning it this could cause the prices

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Speaker 6: of cars to go up by tens of thousands of

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Speaker 6: dollars in some cases. So this really has markets down sharply.

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Speaker 6: After this story popped on the wire earlier today.

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Speaker 5: Well, I guess, I mean, if there is news, we'll

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Speaker 5: bring it to you here on Bloomberg. Hard to tell

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Speaker 5: if that's actually going to happen today. When it comes

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Speaker 5: to tariffs, we do have an X date though, well,

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Speaker 5: we have an X date window from the CBO, the

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Speaker 5: Congressional Budget Office, telling us it's going to be August,

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Speaker 5: maybe September when we hit the debt ceiling. Here, of course,

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Speaker 5: we are already on under extraordinary measures here the Treasury Department.

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Speaker 5: We're talking about extraordinary measures probably exhausted in August or

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Speaker 5: September of twenty twenty five. That's better than May, which

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Speaker 5: some had feared. Does it help to add some urgency

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Speaker 5: to this conversation.

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Speaker 6: It does, and I an'll know that CBO said that

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Speaker 6: if tax re seats don't come in as expected, whether

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Speaker 6: that's because the economy takes a downturn and as a

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Speaker 6: result of all this tariff business, or if the IRS

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Speaker 6: has had a bunch of workers laid off, people are

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Speaker 6: you know, the hours is warm, that people could try

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Speaker 6: to cheat on their taxes more. If tax re seats

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Speaker 6: are down, CBO says, we could be in May facing

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Speaker 6: a potential breach of the debt ceiling. So that's a

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Speaker 6: lot of pressure on lawmakers who are talking about putting

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Speaker 6: this in that bigger tax bill. So the House has

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Speaker 6: sort of moved on this. The Senate is now negotiating.

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Speaker 6: John Thune came out last night and said, yes, we

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Speaker 6: think that we're forming some consensus around moving putting the

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Speaker 6: debt ceiling in the tax bill. But they still have

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Speaker 6: to negotiate everything that's in and out of that bill,

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Speaker 6: and that's going to be a really tough negotiation. It's

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Speaker 6: possible they get there by August, but if this is May,

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Speaker 6: that's a totally different conversation.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, we know Washington loves a deadline, but that

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Speaker 2: deadline may be coming up pretty quick. Yeah, for sure,

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Speaker 2: to the point where it makes some people uncomfortable. Laura Davison,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics Editor, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: And to Laura's point, with the uncertainty around receipts, it

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Speaker 2: points to the idea that this is also an inexact science.

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Speaker 2: It's very hard to nail down an x state, which

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Speaker 2: just speaks to the risk around it and the notion

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Speaker 2: that you could accidentally stumble into default if you don't

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Speaker 2: act quickly enough.

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Speaker 5: It's the cable guy window. Of course, you know, August

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Speaker 5: to September a little bit hard to pin down and

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Speaker 5: hard to pick the day off that you're going to

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Speaker 5: take here. But yeah, with regard to what's happening at

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Speaker 5: the IRS, Laura put her finger on, it's not just

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Speaker 5: a question of receipts, it's a question of the agency's

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Speaker 5: ability to process all of this information in the throes

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Speaker 5: of doge cuts.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's absolutely right. You need to have people to

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Speaker 2: push the paperwork. Yeah, and that paperwork may get pushed

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Speaker 2: a little bit slower this we don't have as many

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Speaker 2: people doing it, So we want to get into all

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Speaker 2: of this now with Douglas holds Egan, who used to

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Speaker 2: direct the Congressional Budget Office that we've been speaking about.

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Speaker 2: He's now president of the American Action Forum. Here with

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Speaker 2: us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Douglas always good to

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Speaker 2: have you on balance of power. As the CBO says,

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Speaker 2: August to September is the window they would guess for now,

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Speaker 2: but there's a risk it is months earlier then that.

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Speaker 2: What would you put the odds around the X state

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Speaker 2: actually being sooner than late summer.

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Speaker 4: I think we're going to know pretty quickly.

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Speaker 7: You know, there are persistent rumors that receipts are coming

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Speaker 7: in lower than expected. CBO included that cautionary note in

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Speaker 7: their report. They didn't just say, look, it's going to

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Speaker 7: be August or September. You know these dates, the key

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Speaker 7: ones being, you know, the April tax payments and then

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Speaker 7: early June a tax payment.

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Speaker 4: The cash flow is the company that can carry you

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Speaker 4: for a while.

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Speaker 7: But if those cash flows aren't big enough, you know,

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Speaker 7: the date jumps forward by months, and this is not

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Speaker 7: something that we want to, you know, treat cavalierly.

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Speaker 4: The fault by the.

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Speaker 7: United States will be a cataclysm for the international financial system.

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Speaker 7: No one thinks that's a good idea, But they don't

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Speaker 7: have a plan to raise the debt limit. I think

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Speaker 7: the thing that's significant here is they're still talking about

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Speaker 7: doing this in reconciliation. They haven't yet agreed on a

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Speaker 7: joint budget resolution.

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Speaker 4: They haven't passed that in the House and Senate.

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Speaker 7: They don't yet have draft reconciliation legislation. We are a

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Speaker 7: long way from voting yes or no on a reconciliation bill.

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Speaker 7: And if that's going to carry the debt limit, I'm

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Speaker 7: concerned about the timetable. You may want to think about

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Speaker 7: doing that as a standalone and not risk the financial

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Speaker 7: standing in the United States with this legislative initiative.

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Speaker 5: Well there you go, Douglas. I first I heard August September.

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Speaker 5: I thought, hey, well, we've got time, we can go

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Speaker 5: to Vegas. There's all kinds of money to spend here.

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Speaker 5: But we just walked us to the news as usual.

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Speaker 5: They can't get this done in reconciliation, which could take

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Speaker 5: the rest of the year. So how should Congress handle it?

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Speaker 7: I think they should right now be having a discussion

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Speaker 7: with the Democrats in the House and the Senate to

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Speaker 7: talk about passing in regular order a debt limit bill.

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Speaker 7: They may want to combine it with, you know, emergency

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Speaker 7: supplementals for fires in California.

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Speaker 4: There's some business.

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Speaker 7: Congress needs to do. Do that business, do it in

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Speaker 7: a timely fashion. Take off the table. Any risk to

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Speaker 7: the economy, especially given the other things going on that

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Speaker 7: comes with tiptoeing up to a debt default.

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Speaker 2: Well, okay, So if ultimately we're talking about tiptoeing here,

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Speaker 2: when they're talking about an accelerated timeline that they want

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Speaker 2: to get this done, who are you going to be watching?

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Speaker 2: Is this ultimately a Senate issue, Douglas? Is this the

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Speaker 2: House issue? Because they're talking about coming more into alignment here,

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Speaker 2: and yet we know even just within the individual conferences

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Speaker 2: in each of those chambers, Republicans can sometimes have difficulty

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Speaker 2: with one another.

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Speaker 7: So they really can't lose any votes in either of

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Speaker 7: the House of the Senate said that they can lose

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Speaker 7: a couple, but there's not really any room for error here.

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Speaker 7: So there has to be a carefully pre negotiated agreement

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Speaker 7: on the numbers that are in the Budge resolution. Who's

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Speaker 7: cutting what, who's creating deficits with tax cuts, who gets

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Speaker 7: those responsibilities, and then how are they going to do that,

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Speaker 7: Like what are the pieces of the policy that are

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Speaker 7: going to be in the tax piece, the energy policy,

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Speaker 7: the border security. That's a lot of issues, and that's

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Speaker 7: a lot of issues to come to agreement with in

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Speaker 7: advance before you go off and take these votes. I

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Speaker 7: view this as a very time consuming process, and you

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Speaker 7: don't get to watch just the Senate or the House

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Speaker 7: because neither can dictate to the other because no one

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Speaker 7: has any room to maneuver. So it's going to be,

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Speaker 7: you know, meet come out announced we made some progress.

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Speaker 7: They will always announce they made progress. But until you

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Speaker 7: have a bill introduced and you can see it and

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Speaker 7: read it and vote on it, you're not done. And

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Speaker 7: this is one of those situations where like nothing's finished

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Speaker 7: until it's all finished.

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Speaker 5: And that right, and you know, we haven't even gotten

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Speaker 5: to the CBO scoring, which we discussed last time you

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Speaker 5: were on, Douglas. I wonder if you're a Republican leader,

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Speaker 5: if you're Speaker Johnson, if you're Senator John Thune at

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Speaker 5: this moment, are you more worried about the CBO score

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Speaker 5: that lands on a final reconciliation bill or should you

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Speaker 5: be more worried about the parliamentarian the gatekeeper about what

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Speaker 5: can go in.

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Speaker 7: I think they're equal worries because they have these two

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Speaker 7: big guardrails on the reconciliation progress.

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Speaker 4: The first process. The first is what is in and out?

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Speaker 4: What is Germaine and not Germaine?

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Speaker 7: And in principle reconciliation bills all of the provisions are

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Speaker 7: primarily budgetary in nature. That definition has been stretched over

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Speaker 7: the years. And so what will the parliamentarian allow us

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Speaker 7: to go in these bills and what will they pull out?

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Speaker 7: Will that, for example, be able to do regulatory reform

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Speaker 7: and reconciliation.

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Speaker 4: We'll see.

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Speaker 7: And then the second big guardrail is you can't create

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Speaker 7: new deficits past the ten year budget window. That comes

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Speaker 7: down to the scoring. What are you doing in the

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Speaker 7: way of spending cuts, What are you doing in the

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Speaker 7: way of tax provisions? That gets to the Joint Committee

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Speaker 7: on Taxation and the CBO. They're both comparably important issues

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Speaker 7: for the leaders, and so they're going to be check

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Speaker 7: them with their members, checking with the scorers, check them

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Speaker 7: with the parliamentarium, and just hoping they can check all

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Speaker 7: three boxes and get to yes.

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Speaker 4: This is a very difficult endeavor for them.

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Speaker 2: Well, and we've heard some consternation from Republicans about the

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Speaker 2: idea that the CBO also can't factor into scoring tariffs

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Speaker 2: that are starting in the executive branch, And we just

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Speaker 2: got some news on that, Douglas. The White House Press

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Speaker 2: Secretary Caroline love It has begun her briefing and says

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Speaker 2: that President Trump will be announcing auto tariffs at four

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Speaker 2: pm this afternoon. He of course, has been teasing that

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Speaker 2: this could come in the coming days. We're expecting this

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Speaker 2: could be about twenty five percent on auto imports, and

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Speaker 2: this is before a week from today Liberation Day on

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Speaker 2: April second. If the CBO could factor in tariff revenue

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Speaker 2: that they're scoring, Douglas, do we even have enough clarity

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Speaker 2: as to what exemptions will be, what the levels are,

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Speaker 2: when all of this is going to impact to even

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Speaker 2: consider what kind of revenue source it could be for

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Speaker 2: the United States Treasury.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a couple of things that.

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Speaker 7: Number One, they can't because they score legislation and the

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Speaker 7: tariffs aren't being legislated. Congress delegated this authority to the

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Speaker 7: executive branches of the President's often.

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Speaker 4: Doing it, so they can't be in there.

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Speaker 7: If they were, you would have to write down the

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Speaker 7: tariff schedule. You'd have to write down the date of

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Speaker 7: it becomes enforced, the rate at which is applied, what

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Speaker 7: it is applied to, all the exemptions that would be there.

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Speaker 7: So we'd have a lot more clarity if it was

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Speaker 7: done legislatively and if if you know, originating in the

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Speaker 7: ways and means community the way revenue measures are supposed to.

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Speaker 4: We don't have any of that clarity. And you know

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Speaker 4: you've been watching this story. Why do you think the

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Speaker 4: Otter tarif should be announced today?

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Speaker 7: Let's stop talking about wonder's something else?

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Speaker 5: That is the only thing that is all This is

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Speaker 5: almost like almost like there.

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Speaker 4: Maybe, I mean it might be good for their messaging.

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Speaker 4: That's bad for the economy. We've seen this before.

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Speaker 7: It's on again, off again uncertainty about the nature of

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Speaker 7: the tariff burden. So this is a bad news day

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Speaker 7: for the economics profession and the outlook for the economy.

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Speaker 7: But it's a good news day if they can change

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Speaker 7: the subject. And that's where we are.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 5: Great to have you back. Douglas Hole second as always

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Speaker 5: used to run the Congressional Budget Office, President of the

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Speaker 5: American Action forum with us live on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 5: He's suggesting the tail is wagging the dog today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the timing certainly is something. This was not originally

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Speaker 2: on the White House schedule that was sent out in

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Speaker 2: terms of guidance. This is a new edition four pm

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Speaker 2: Eastern time. The President is expected to announce auto tariffs

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Speaker 2: one week before he's expected to announce reciprocal tariffs.

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Speaker 5: That's correct Liberation Day as you put it. Yes, so

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Speaker 5: we have a little program at five o'clock quoting him

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Speaker 5: five pm Eastern time. That's why you need two balances

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Speaker 5: of Power. We'll have much more on the news conference

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Speaker 5: coming up a little bit later on. We'll assemble our

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Speaker 5: signature panel next for their take.

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Speaker 1: Right here on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance

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Speaker 1: of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and

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Speaker 1: five pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

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Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just Say

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Speaker 1: Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: And we've just learned that roughly two and a half

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Speaker 2: hours from now, we add another item to the White

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Speaker 2: House agenda. President Trump at four PM is set to

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Speaker 2: announce tariffs on auto imports. Now he's long said these

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Speaker 2: were coming. He actually said earlier this week he could

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Speaker 2: be making this announcement in the coming days, but we've

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Speaker 2: learned that today is going to be that day.

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Speaker 4: Joe.

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Speaker 2: It is an interesting case of timing here, as the

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Speaker 2: day to this point, by and large, has been dominated

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Speaker 2: by the signal group chat story.

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Speaker 5: Signal group chat story that takes on new meaning after

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Speaker 5: The Atlantic went ahead and published some of the attack

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Speaker 5: plans that were texted by the Defense Secretary. Of the

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Speaker 5: reaction that we saw from Michael Waltz, the National Security Advisor,

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Speaker 5: as well as Vice President j. D Vance. It's a

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Speaker 5: little different when you can actually read this having heard

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Speaker 5: that these were not classified and that some of these

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Speaker 5: directives were not shared. Apparently they were, and so we

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Speaker 5: knew we were in for a doozy of a press

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Speaker 5: briefing at the White House, and sure enough, as Kaylee mentioned,

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Speaker 5: Caroline Levitt began by announcing a news conference on auto tariffs.

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Speaker 5: And that's where we start with our signature panel. Back

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Speaker 5: with us today, an hour two of Balance of Power.

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Speaker 5: Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist and partner at

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Speaker 5: Stone Court Capital is with us alongside Democratic analyst Genie Shanzano,

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Speaker 5: of course, political science professor at Iona University. This moves

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Speaker 5: now to more of a communications story, at least with

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Speaker 5: regard to our conversation, Rick Davis, what do you make

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Speaker 5: of this idea throwing down own an auto tariff's news

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Speaker 5: conference in the middle of the day like this good

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Speaker 5: good politics, good communications strategy. Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Look, I mean Donald Trump was sort of teasing this

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Speaker 8: out for a while that he was going to be

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Speaker 8: doing something on auto separate from the April second Independence

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Speaker 8: Day reciprocal tariff announcement, And it makes sense that if

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Speaker 8: it's not a reciprocal tariff, why not take it out

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Speaker 8: and do it separately for impact Obviously today, you know,

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Speaker 8: you don't have to sit through too many communications meetings

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Speaker 8: at the White House to realize what are we going

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Speaker 8: to talk about today? To change the topic away from

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Speaker 8: signal and so it makes sense that this is going

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Speaker 8: to be the case. And the question is what does

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Speaker 8: that do to markets? How is that going to be accepted?

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Speaker 8: I mean, part of the narrative that's building around the

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Speaker 8: economic policies of this administration, specifically to tariffs, is that

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Speaker 8: you never really know what's going to happen day to day.

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Speaker 8: It's not well rolled out, you know, there's no expectation

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Speaker 8: within the affected parties. Are they preliminary communications about how

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Speaker 8: big these tariffs are going to be and what they're.

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Speaker 5: Going to apply to?

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Speaker 8: And so here we have another like, oh, today we're

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Speaker 8: gonna have a tariff announcement. And it's easy to see

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Speaker 8: why there's so much tumult in the markets because every

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Speaker 8: given day could be some major impact on global markets

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Speaker 8: or domestic markets.

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Speaker 2: Well, they're left questioning whether or not this is real

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Speaker 2: or another headfake genie, given that we've seen full on

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Speaker 2: tariff announcements before that then get pulled back or extended

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Speaker 2: delayed just because he's announcing this today and maybe announces

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Speaker 2: an implementation today doesn't actually necessarily, at least historically over

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Speaker 2: the last few months. I mean, these tariffs will go

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Speaker 2: into effect on the initial data announced, right.

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Speaker 9: That's right, And as you mentioned, the last eight weeks,

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Speaker 9: it's been a lot of back and forth, fakes, pulling back,

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Speaker 9: so we have to wait and see. They're already talking

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Speaker 9: about some exemptions but Kaylie, I am coining a new phrase.

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Speaker 9: You know, we talk about diversionary foreign policy when we

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Speaker 9: use military action to distract from domestic scandal. Now here

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Speaker 9: we have diversionary tariffs, the use of economic tariffs to

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Speaker 9: distract from domestic scandal.

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Speaker 10: So that is my contribution to the lexicon.

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Speaker 9: And I do think that helps explain what is going

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Speaker 9: on here, and I agree with Douglas Holtz speaking on that.

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Speaker 10: But the reality is it.

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Speaker 9: Is a questionable communication strategy because you should divert with

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Speaker 9: something that is going to rally people together, and the

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Speaker 9: imposition of twenty five percent tariffs at some point on

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Speaker 9: autos is hardly that thing. So I think the White

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Speaker 9: House is starting to lose grip a little bit. I'm

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Speaker 9: not sure how this helps distract in a meaningful or

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Speaker 9: useful way, if that's what they're going for.

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Speaker 5: How does this actually change the story today? Rick this

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Speaker 5: update that we got from the Atlantic actually reading the

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Speaker 5: texts or does it? I mean, there were some questions

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Speaker 5: yesterday about whether this information was sent at all. Tulsa

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Speaker 5: Gabbard CIA director Ratcliffe suggested it was not. Is it

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Speaker 5: different to actually see it in publication or are we

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Speaker 5: questioning the source on this still.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I think the way I read the hearing yesterday,

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Speaker 8: which was very important, I mean, here you had a

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Speaker 8: pre arranged schedule to talk to the heads of the

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Speaker 8: Trump administration's intelligence committee firms, and by the very sober

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Speaker 8: and serious Senate Intelligence Committee, and I saw a lot

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Speaker 8: of hesitation and sort of coming clean. I Mean, the

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Speaker 8: point I made that was made by Tulca Gabbert was

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Speaker 8: that I didn't see or I didn't send any classified information, right,

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Speaker 8: It wasn't that there wasn't any in there. Yeah, And

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Speaker 8: obviously what's happened since then is everyone's basically locking arms.

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Speaker 8: The one consistent thing is there claiming none of.

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Speaker 4: This was.

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Speaker 8: Considered confidential. So you're an administration where the president himself

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Speaker 8: was indicted over the mishandling of classified information, and you've

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Speaker 8: had a hearing that was I would say, arguably a

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Speaker 8: horrible hearing, you know, when it came to what the

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Speaker 8: administration looked like they were doing vis vis the care

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Speaker 8: of our nation secrets. And it's just a really rough start.

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Speaker 8: And it's just stunning to me, like this is month

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Speaker 8: two of this administration and we've got, you know, almost

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Speaker 8: four years left, and we already are seeing all kinds

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Speaker 8: of major swings in the economy, in the domestic politics,

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Speaker 8: in our national security positions.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's get a taste of what Rick just described

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Speaker 2: as a horrible hearing. This was an exchange between Gabbard

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Speaker 2: and Ratcliffe and the Democratic senator from New Mexico and Heinrich.

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Speaker 11: Did this conversation at some point include information on weapons packages,

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Speaker 11: targets or timing, Not that I'm aware of, Director Gabbert, same.

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Speaker 12: Question, same answer, and defer to the Department of Defense

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Speaker 12: on that question.

438
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 11: Well that those are two different answers. But you're saying

439
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 11: that did not that was not part of the conversation.

440
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 11: Knowledge the precise operational issues were not part of this conversation, correct, Okay, So.

441
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 2: The deference to the Department of Defense, Genie, could that

442
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 2: be read as finger pointing at Pete Hegseth, who actually

443
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 2: sent the message with the details, or finger pointing at

444
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: Mike Waltz, who created the group chat in the first place,

445
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 2: or those the two individuals. If President Trump were to

446
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 2: change his mind and decide he does want someone to

447
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: take the fall for it, that would have to take that.

448
00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 10: Fall most likely, and you know.

449
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 9: It is just fascinating because you heard both Tulci Gabbard

450
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 9: and Ratcliffe.

451
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 10: Say we know nothing about it. Go talk to Pete Hegseth.

452
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 9: I'm waiting for Pete Pete Hegseth to say I'm going

453
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 9: to declassify, because he does have that power. But the

454
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 9: reality here is that even today in the House hearing,

455
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 9: when Tulci Gabbard was asked by Jimmy Gomez if Pete

456
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 9: Hegseth was drinking when he wrote these, she didn't say no,

457
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 9: she said I don't know. Director Ratcliffe at least came

458
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 9: back and said, oh, that's an outrageous question, right. So

459
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 9: it is getting ugly in the administration, and I think

460
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 9: from a policy perspective, something to keep in mind is

461
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 9: that these two who are on the hot seat, Hegseth

462
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 9: and Mike Waltz, these are the most conventionally hawkish of

463
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 9: the people in the administration. And there is some talk

464
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 9: out there that the isolationist, the Tucker Carlson Wing, if

465
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 9: you will, who jd. Vance apparently is representing now, they

466
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 9: would like nothing more than to Alista Waltz and or

467
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 9: at Pete Hegseth in favor of somebody more isolationist, and

468
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 9: we saw some of that in the back and forth

469
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 9: as well. So there are enormous implications here on both sides.

470
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 9: But it is getting ugly and they are pointing fingers.

471
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 5: I want to get into that with Rick for a moment.

472
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 5: Do you buy that line that we're seeing in reporting

473
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 5: today that because Mike Wallts is some sort of traditionalist

474
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 5: defense hawk, that he could get blown out by MAGA.

475
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 8: Well, there are always those kinds of things no matter

476
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 8: what is happening, The push and shove ideologically and politically

477
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 8: in this town is constant, right. There's never a day

478
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 8: where you are safe to wander the halls of Congress

479
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 8: or the White House that somebody isn't shooting at you.

480
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 8: And so that shouldn't surprise anybody. It is a blood

481
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 8: sport in Washington, and there's a lot of steak, right.

482
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 8: I mean, as Genie mentioned, there are ideological divides within

483
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 8: MAGA and they play out on a daily basis.

484
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 5: That being said, there were a.

485
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 8: Lot of people at risk here and including the Vice president,

486
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 8: and so the last thing that the vice president wants

487
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 8: to do is draw more attention to a scandal that

488
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 8: his name is associated with. And so sure there'll be

489
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 8: opportunistic shots on goal, to use a Gretzky phrase, but

490
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 8: at this point, I think it's all just damage control.

491
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 13: Right.

492
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 8: The last thing this administration wants is turnover in two months.

493
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 8: And that's why you see him holding on so hard

494
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 8: to keep everybody sort of on message and together on this,

495
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 8: because the last thing that this administration wants is turnover

496
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 8: within the first sixty days.

497
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,719
Speaker 2: But would you say they're alltogether on the same message, Genie,

498
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 2: because arguably Toolsey Gabbard and John Radcliffe gave some different

499
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: answers yesterday in the Senate Intelligence hearing. You had Mike

500
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 2: Waltz on Fox last night suggesting that it was not

501
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 2: a staffer of his that actually was adding numbers to

502
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 2: the group chat, when President Trump has suggested that it

503
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 2: was an aid, not the principle himself. Do you see

504
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: a cohesive message here?

505
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 10: Not at all. I mean I was watching that too,

506
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 10: Kille last night.

507
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 9: It was like they were all sinking from different playbooks.

508
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 9: And you know that is a sign that they are

509
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 9: either at odds or in disarray at the very best, probably.

510
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 9: And it's stunning because to this point, one thing that

511
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 9: we have been told is Trump two point zero. They

512
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 9: are moving together, growing forward, if you will, and you know.

513
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 10: A fine tuned machine. And here we go.

514
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 9: The gloves have come off, and we are seeing that

515
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 9: they are not standing together, and they're not even singing

516
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 9: from the same playbook. And so I think the President

517
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 9: today at four is going to try to move this

518
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 9: towards another conversation because Donald Trump is great at communication

519
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 9: and he knows that this is a loser for him

520
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 9: and the administration.

521
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 11: All right.

522
00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzeno and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors are signature

523
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: political panel here with us on Balance of Power.

524
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

525
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

526
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: Alma Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

527
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

528
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

529
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 5: Here in the Void in Washington. If you're with us

530
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 5: on YouTube if you're not, search Bloomberg Business News Live. Also,

531
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 5: of course, always on the radio Bloomberg Radio and satellite

532
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 5: radio Channel one twenty one. This is feeling kind of familiar.

533
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 5: You listen to Charlie, He tells you that stocks are lower.

534
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 5: You look at the terminal, you see the headline nasdack

535
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 5: down one and a half percent as tariff angst royals stocks.

536
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 5: Then you look at the next headline. Trump prepares auto

537
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 5: tariff announcement as soon as Wednesday. Well, here we are again.

538
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 5: This is a familiar place, and as we watch the

539
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 5: markets try to get legs back after the brutal reversal

540
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 5: that we saw taking us all the way back before

541
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 5: the election, we haven't even reached Liberation Day yet. The

542
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 5: lovely Kaylee Lyons reminded me this morning when I got

543
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 5: to work that were a week out from Liberation Day. Yeah,

544
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 5: April second, right, reciprocal tariffs, But what about the auto tariffs?

545
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 5: Now we understand those could be coming as soon as

546
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 5: today or not. President actually talked about the tariff situation

547
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 5: specific to reciprocal as he calls it, in an interview

548
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 5: on Newsmax. This idea that there could be lots of exceptions,

549
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 5: he said, so yesterday at the White House, maybe not

550
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 5: so much.

551
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 10: Here's the President, not too many, not too many exceptions.

552
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 14: Now, I don't want to have too many exceptions.

553
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 4: We're just going to be reciprocal.

554
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 13: In fact, I'll probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because

555
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,719
Speaker 13: if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people.

556
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 5: As we cover the intersection of Washington and Wall Street,

557
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 5: it's great pleasure to bring in Barry Riddle. It's the

558
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 5: sage founder of Riddleswealth Management and of course host of

559
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Radio's Masters in Business. He's got a new book

560
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 5: out as well. We're getting him on the book tour

561
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 5: to how not to invest, the idea's numbers, behaviors that

562
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 5: destroy wealth and how to avoid them, which I think

563
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 5: we could all use right about now. Barry, it's great

564
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 5: to see you. Welcome back to Balance of Power. I'm

565
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 5: not sure I know where to start with you, other

566
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 5: than to ask if we're really building a bottom. Here

567
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 5: is Wall Street getting numb to this or this is

568
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 5: just the go forward? Donald Trump is the market.

569
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 15: Yeah, Well, go back to twenty sixteen.

570
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 14: If you remember in Trump one point zero or forty five,

571
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 14: however you want to call that, that election. He was

572
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 14: tweeting back when X was called Twitter at specific companies,

573
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 14: at specific CEOs, remember Tim Apple and General Motors, And

574
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 14: you know the first couple of weeks.

575
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 15: When that happened.

576
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 14: The first few months, every time he would pick a

577
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 14: company and tweeted them, the stock would wobble.

578
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 15: There'd be all sorts of.

579
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 14: You know, people running around with their hair on fire,

580
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 14: Analysts downgrade, and then it took a couple of months

581
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 14: before people realized, oh, this is just the new operating procedure,

582
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 14: this is the environment we're in, and the ability to

583
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 14: move markets kind of lost its power. You know, Eventually,

584
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 14: if you just have noise blaring in the background, eventually

585
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 14: it just becomes background noise. And so maybe this is

586
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 14: a little bit of wishful thinking on my part, but

587
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 14: it very much feels like that's what's going on now. Hey,

588
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 14: we're barely two months into this administration, and we began

589
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 14: with Wall Street celebrating, Hey, new administration. We're going to

590
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 14: get tax cuts, we're going to get deregulation, business friendly, environment,

591
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 14: looked for more M and A and more buybacks, and

592
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 14: that narrative dominated for a few months from election to

593
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 14: pretty much till January twentieth. And then the crazy thing

594
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 14: is none of this is a surprise. This is what

595
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 14: Donald Trump candidate told us he would do, is Donald

596
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 14: Trump president, Hey, I'm gonna put in some tariffs, brace yourself.

597
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 14: And so now he's doing what he said he's doing,

598
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 14: and people seem to.

599
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 15: Be kind of shocked.

600
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 14: Maybe it's the sort of chaotic nature and it just

601
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 14: feels like everybody thing is random and spitballing, the signal

602
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 14: snafu and the sort of I don't think we could

603
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 14: call that group the best and the brightest. I think

604
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 14: that's making people a little nervous. And you're starting to

605
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 14: see CEOs say let's just slow our roll with some

606
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 14: capex until we have a little clarity because this chaos,

607
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 14: I hate the word uncertainty. This chaos is not encouraging

608
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 14: us to spend tens of millions of dollars on new projects.

609
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: So was it just a matter of getting past Liberation

610
00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 5: Day the announcement of reciprocal tariffs next week. Is this

611
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 5: a market that's basing right now and all of a

612
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 5: sudden chaos or uncertainty lifts after that date, or it's

613
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 5: going to take a while for us to get to

614
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 5: know this new version of Donald Trump.

615
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 15: I don't know.

616
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 14: I'm a little hesitant to say that the market is

617
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 14: basing here, although I will tell you I started on

618
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 14: a trading desk thirty years ago, ten percent pullbacks from

619
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 14: mull time highs happen, you know.

620
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 15: Go back to nineteen fifty.

621
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 14: We've had about fifty three examples of it. So over

622
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 14: that seventy five years, what is that like once every

623
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 14: eighteen months or so, Not that it's clockwork, but you

624
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 14: know two out of every three years you're going to

625
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 14: get a ten percent pullback. I cannot recall more angst

626
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 14: and wailing and pulling the hair out of the head

627
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,719
Speaker 14: for ten percent off the highs?

628
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 15: Are you kidding me? Do you not remember down.

629
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 14: Fifty seven percent on the financial crisis? Like you have

630
00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 14: to learn to accept volatility as the cost of admitting

631
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 14: for long term gains.

632
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 5: So maybe this was due anyway. But if you look

633
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 5: at an S and P chart, it's broken still right,

634
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 5: We're below the fifty, we're below the two hundred. At

635
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 5: what point do you start buying into weakness here so

636
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 5: you look like the smart guy when all of this

637
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 5: short term pain supposedly pays off in the second half.

638
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 14: So the data tells us never just pick a point

639
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 14: you want to if you are buying on weakness.

640
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 15: If you have cash, you're lying around first.

641
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 14: The data says, put it all in at once two

642
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 14: out of three days. On a rolling basis, you're better

643
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 14: off doing that than scaling in.

644
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 15: However, the psychology of how.

645
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 14: Humans behave around risk, around volatility, around market pullbacks down

646
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 14: ten percent pretty ordinary. If you have a little extra cash, okay,

647
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 14: you could roll it into equities. I don't really get

648
00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 14: excited till down twenty twenty five percent and down thirty percent.

649
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 14: I'm flipping over couch cushions and looking for loose change,

650
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 14: anything I could do down thirty percent, because that's really

651
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 14: a pretty rare event. Q one twenty twenty down thirty

652
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 14: four percent. You got to go back to the GFC

653
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 14: before that, and then the dot com implosion, and then

654
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 14: you really have to go back to eighty seven before

655
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 14: you see that again. So that's a much more infrequent event.

656
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 14: And you the data says, all right, down ten percent,

657
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 14: So what about half the time the pullback stops there

658
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 14: and half the time it keeps going down to down

659
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 14: ten to ten to twenty percent. So it's really a

660
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 14: coin flip here. I know no one likes that answer,

661
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 14: but that's the math.

662
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:46,240
Speaker 5: Well, you're honest. Yeah, Look, I associate Riddle's wealth management

663
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 5: with as you put it getting rich slowly, building wealth slowly,

664
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 5: and people who come to you know this, that's why

665
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 5: they come to find you. But what's it been like lately?

666
00:34:56,480 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 5: What are the questions? What's the sense of urgency that

667
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 5: you're getting from clients over all of this? And are

668
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 5: you telling them just to hang on?

669
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 14: So we do quarterly calls for clients, and in the

670
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 14: January twenty twenty five quarterly call, having nothing whatsoever to

671
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 14: do with President Trump or tariffs or anything else, we said, hey,

672
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 14: back to back plus twenty five percent years. That is

673
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 14: so rare that when we went back in history and

674
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 14: looked at the data, we had to use back to

675
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 14: back twenty percent years because you really don't see a

676
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 14: lot of twenty five plus twenty five in a row.

677
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 15: And the range that you.

678
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 14: End up with following that, you know, it could be

679
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 14: anywhere from minus ten percent to plus ten percent. But

680
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 14: the takeaway was, don't expect double digit gains in a

681
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 14: year that follows two years like twenty three and twenty four.

682
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 14: Lower your return expectations for equities. Look for a modest

683
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 14: year this year and pretty much so far, I mean,

684
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 14: and that's not a forecast, that's just here's what's happened historically.

685
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 14: Given given how rare this is and the relatively small

686
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 14: data set, it's not conclusive, but seems pretty real reasonable

687
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 14: to say we don't get a lot of plus twenty

688
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 14: fives three times in a row. Let's let's just lower expectations.

689
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 14: That seems to have been pretty good advice heading into

690
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 14: twenty five.

691
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 5: Wow, this is great. I don't know what we're going

692
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 5: to get charged for this, but this is a great

693
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 5: session with Barry Riddolts. We've got a couple of minutes left. Berry,

694
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 5: What's what's the the the the action item that worries

695
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 5: you the most? Is it lawmakers having to deal with

696
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 5: the debt ceiling at the same time as Trump tax

697
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 5: cuts or is it the unknown about tariffs?

698
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 14: So I really don't care about the debt ceiling. I

699
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 14: don't care about deficits. Ever since I was ye yahol

700
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 14: to a grasshopper, all I've heard, literally my whole adult life,

701
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 14: is hey, deficits are going to cause structural inflation. It

702
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 14: will crowd out right Uncle Sam from borrowing. It'll it'll

703
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 14: crowd out private capital, it'll destroy the dot. All the

704
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 14: deficits on the alarm down here yesterday. Can I tell

705
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 14: you something when somebody is wrong for half a century, right,

706
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 14: If you're wrong every year for half a century, if

707
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 14: they were run if the deficit hawks were running a fund,

708
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 14: they would have been out of business a long time ago. Politics,

709
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 14: you could be wrong forever, and you don't really seem

710
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 14: to catch heat in the market. The feedback loop is

711
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 14: so quick and so efficient and so brutal that if

712
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 14: you're that wrong for that loan, no one pays attention

713
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 14: to you. So I'm not all that concerned about deficits.

714
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 14: What I am concerned about is three months ago, risk

715
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 14: of a weakening dollar, risk of a recession, risk of

716
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 14: a market crass, risk of increase volatility, geopolitics.

717
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 15: They were all pretty low.

718
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 14: They're not like flashing red yet, but they certainly have

719
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 14: out become elevated. Risk of a recession is probably up

720
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 14: from ten percent to hold thirty percent. I don't know

721
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 14: how you put a real number on that. We've obviously

722
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 14: seen volatility bike. Questions about alternatives to the dollar are erupting. Listen,

723
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 14: it's our exorbitant privilege that our currency is the world's

724
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 14: reserve currency. I'm a little nervous that anyone would do

725
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 14: anything to put.

726
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 15: That at risk.

727
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 14: It seems to be a little bit of a self

728
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 14: inflicted you know, an own goal. You know, never want

729
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,479
Speaker 14: to accidentally kick the ball into your own own goal.

730
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 14: And so just the general lack of structure, organization, this

731
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 14: sort of chaos presidency. We're starting to see this not

732
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,479
Speaker 14: just the soft data. Make us a little concerned about

733
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 14: a potential recession down the road that can easily bleed

734
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 14: into the hard data. As we see CAPEC spending fall

735
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 14: off as people take fewer vacations, as they throttle back

736
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 14: their savings.

737
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 15: That's a rising.

738
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 14: It's still not a flashing red light, but it's worth

739
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 14: paying attention to.

740
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 5: Fascinating deep dive with Barry Riddles. I'd say he should

741
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 5: get his own show, but he has one. It's called

742
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 5: Masters in Business. Here on Bloomberg. Founder Riddolts Wealth Management.

743
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 5: Thanks for the wisdom, Barry. You're always welcome here. Of

744
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,320
Speaker 5: the book is How Not to Invest. This is Bloomberg.

745
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,919
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

746
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

747
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto. With the Bloomberg Business app. You

748
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

749
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:30,720
Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

750
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 5: Pretty newsy day here in Washington. Happens just like I

751
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 5: said yesterday, Hi noon, there's something magic about this time

752
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 5: we meet. Every day there's a breaker, And sure enough

753
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 5: today Donald Trump preparing an auto teriff announcement. We learn

754
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 5: as soon as Wednesday. Wait, that's today, But we were

755
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 5: talking about the whole signal chat. So maybe this is

756
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 5: an opportunity, we'll say, to change the subject, because everybody's

757
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 5: talking about this. We got a new layer from the Atlantic.

758
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 5: If you're just waking up to what's going on today,

759
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 5: I suspect that we'll be hearing from Donald Trump at

760
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 5: some point, the President of the United States. We did

761
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 5: just hear from Michael Waltz, his National Security advisor, who

762
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 5: of course is knee deep in this whole won't call it.

763
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 5: A scandal surrounding the signal chat and the distribution the

764
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 5: texting of don't call them war plans, attack plans. The

765
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 5: Atlantic listened all day yesterday to White House officials, including

766
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 5: Waltz himself, suggests that it was some sort of media

767
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 5: hoax interference. The Atlantic a discredited magazine, as the President said,

768
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 5: with a discredited journalist, and acts to grind no one's

769
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 5: paying attention to the real story. And we did hear

770
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 5: conflicting versions of who might have been responsible for what?

771
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 5: Who invited Jeffrey Goldberg to this signal chat. Michael Waltz

772
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 5: spoke alongside the president, as you saw and heard in

773
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 5: a cabinet meeting yesterday, and then was dispatched to try

774
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 5: to clean this thing up on Fox News. It didn't

775
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 5: get a lot cleaner, as we found in the conversation

776
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 5: with Laura Ingram.

777
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 3: Listen, I take responsibility. I built the I built the group.

778
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 4: Okay, so.

779
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,879
Speaker 3: But look that's the part that we have to figure out,

780
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 3: and that's the part that we were embarrassing. Yes, we

781
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 3: made a mistake. We're moving forward and we're going to

782
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 3: continue to knock it out.

783
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 5: Of the park for this president.

784
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 3: Look at what he's gotten done in under two months.

785
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 5: But you never talked to him before. She said, so,

786
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 5: how is the number on your phone? Well said, well,

787
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 5: if you have somebody else's contact, somehow it gets sucked in,

788
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 5: it gets sucked in. Unquote, Well, learning a lot I

789
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 5: guess about signal here. I sent a signal text over

790
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 5: to Tony Capassi at the Pentagon and see if you

791
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 5: could come on today. Magically, he's back with me in studio.

792
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 5: We had barely recovered from our conversation yesterday. It's great

793
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 5: to see you, and I'm not joking around. This is

794
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 5: some pretty serious stuff you brought to us. Now we've

795
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 5: got the actual should I call them attack plans? We're

796
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 5: splitting hairs on the semantics. Yeah, we're definitely.

797
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 13: Splitting hairs whether you have gray hair or brown hair

798
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 13: or no hair.

799
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 5: Okay, you got it.

800
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 13: So war plans this is the equal. Let's say we're

801
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 13: planning to bin loden Rid. The concept of operation the

802
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 13: ben Lot the war plan would be we're using seal

803
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 13: we're using two what we're using Seal Team six, two

804
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 13: helicopters and an overhead droned monitor. The concept of operations

805
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 13: president is x y Z. The tactical issues are what

806
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,879
Speaker 13: we're talking about here. In Air Force Navy LINGO, it's

807
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 13: called the Air Tasking Order.

808
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 5: Okay, the minuet.

809
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 13: How you you organize the minuet of tomahawks and aircraft

810
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 13: so they they're deconflicted in the air. So this is

811
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 13: the execution part, splitting hairs, you could say, and colloquially

812
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,240
Speaker 13: it's a war plan, but it's really the attack plan

813
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 13: or the air tasking or that they laid out. And

814
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 13: I had a top former Centcom official told me a

815
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 13: little while ago that these are.

816
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 5: At the secret level.

817
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 13: They are, And Jeffrey Goldberg make the point, this is

818
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 13: thirty minutes before the attack commenced.

819
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:12,479
Speaker 5: That's right.

820
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,320
Speaker 13: So if the hoodies had some intelligence, high level eavesdropping

821
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 13: capability to pick up.

822
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 5: On signal, they could have been alerted. But they don't,

823
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 5: so they don't. Okay, Well, so here we are we're

824
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 5: talking about Michael Waltz. But it was in fact Pete Hegseth,

825
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 5: the Secretary of Defense who you cover every day, who

826
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 5: texted at eleven forty four am Eastern time, posted in

827
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 5: the chat in all Caps team update. Text begins time

828
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 5: now eleven forty four weather is favorable. Just confirmed a

829
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 5: sent come we are a go for mission launch. It

830
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 5: continues twelve fifteen F eighteen's launch first strike package. It

831
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 5: continues at thirteen forty five trigger based F eighteen first

832
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 5: strike windows starts target terrorist is at his known location,

833
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 5: so should be on time. Also strike drone's launch MQ

834
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,919
Speaker 5: nine's what are we talking about here.

835
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,919
Speaker 13: We we're talking about m Q nine's picking up real

836
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 13: time imagery, beaming it back to the the Truman battle

837
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 13: group and maybe sent some commanding control nodes there and

838
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 13: actually you know, queueing the aircraft in the tomahawks they

839
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 13: had they fired were called tact their tactical tomahawks. They

840
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 13: could actually they're the loyest models. They can loiter and

841
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 13: be retargeted. So this is a really impressive minuet.

842
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 5: And the importance of the drone.

843
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 13: So one of the sources and methods that they disclosed

844
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 13: in this when walt says the target the first target,

845
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,879
Speaker 13: their top missile guy. We had positive idea of him

846
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 13: walking into his girlfriend's building, and now that's collapsed. Well

847
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 13: that's the sources and methods. That's the MQ nine actually

848
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 13: seeing and beaming back in commanding and linkages that are

849
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 13: actually the taxpayer should be happy, actually worked, if not

850
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 13: maybe disclosed this way.

851
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 5: An impressive menuet, I believe Tony Capasio just said.

852
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,280
Speaker 13: And it's not even a twilet TOWRP.

853
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,959
Speaker 5: We go on VP building collapse. This is Waltz now

854
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 5: had multiple positive ID six minutes later, the Vice President

855
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 5: confused messaging what Waltz responds, this is incredible stuff, typing

856
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 5: too fast. The first target their top missile guy. We

857
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 5: had positive idea of him walking into his girlfriend's building

858
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 5: and it's now collapsed. We had a hearing today House

859
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 5: Intelligence second day, Tulsea Gabbert, CIA Director Ratcliffe, Cash Betel

860
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 5: from the FBI. Democrat lawmakers show up with these texts

861
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 5: printed out, big easels set up. It's hard to deny

862
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 5: that we had sensitive information here. You heard from a

863
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 5: former Sentcom and for officials say this is classify. This

864
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 5: was at the secret level.

865
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 13: It would have been down graded as the attack after

866
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 13: the attack proceeded, but this was before so, and it's

867
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 13: hard to say. It's hard to argue that this was

868
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 13: not classified information and it was a plan of attack

869
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 13: versus a strategic war plan.

870
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 4: Yep.

871
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,800
Speaker 5: I want to go back to the Senate Intelligence Committee.

872
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:14,399
Speaker 5: Senator Heinrich here from the Intel hearing, much like what

873
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 5: we saw today on the House side. Martin Heinrich, a

874
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 5: Democrat from New Mexico, talking to John Ratcliffe, the CIA director,

875
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 5: Tulci Gabbard dni Let's listen from yesterday.

876
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 11: Did this conversation at some point include information on weapons packages,

877
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 11: targets or timing.

878
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 4: Not that I'm aware of.

879
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 12: Director Gabbard, same question, same answer, and defer to the

880
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 12: Department of Defense on that question.

881
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 11: Well that those are two different answers. But you're saying

882
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 11: that did that was not part of the conversation. Knowledge

883
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 11: the precise operational issues were not part of this conversation.

884
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 5: Correct, Okay, we isolated that, Tony, because again the question,

885
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 5: did this conversation at some point include information on weapons packages,

886
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 5: targets or timing? Clearly it did. It surely did.

887
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 13: And I listened to her today at the House when

888
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 13: she was hit by one of the House House Democrats,

889
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 13: and it was the I don't recall arguments.

890
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 5: Which cash Bettel actually said numerous times. You ever use

891
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 5: signal for you know, I don't recall works better, I

892
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 5: don't recall.

893
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 13: That's a good water Gate hearings thing from fifty fifty

894
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 13: two years ago.

895
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 5: So we're back to Pete Hegseth today. By the way,

896
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 5: if you're with us on YouTube, I don't know. I

897
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 5: think they found us. They got our backdrop. They must

898
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 5: be listening in what happens to the Secretary of defense

899
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 5: in a damage control moment like this, having said on

900
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 5: the tarmac over the weekend that this didn't even happen.

901
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 13: Yeah, he's over and he's an Asian. I think he's

902
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 13: gonna he's gonna come out unscathed this But as Press

903
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 13: Secretary sent this note a little while ago, it's no

904
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 13: surprise hoax peddlers at the Atlantic have already abandoned their

905
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 13: warp plans claim these additional signal chat message is confirmed.

906
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 13: There was no classified materials or war plans shared. Okay,

907
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 13: so I don't want to read the whole thing, but

908
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 13: that's their response, which is not totally accurate.

909
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 5: We're out of time. We've got thirty seconds left. Does

910
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 5: the White House Press Office take it from here? Is

911
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 5: the Pentagon Press Office at full speed as well?

912
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 13: Now the Pentagon Press Office is not a full speed it.

913
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,839
Speaker 13: This is an attack dog coordinated attack dog approach from

914
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 13: the White House Press Office.

915
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 4: In terms of.

916
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 5: Responding, fascinating as always, It's great to have you back.

917
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 5: You can just come every day if you want. We're

918
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 5: going to be talking about this for a while. You

919
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 5: would bring me to have a real job, right, I

920
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 5: would turn you out. We'll see about that Tony Capasio

921
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 5: the best in the business at the Pentagon reporting for Bloomberg.

922
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,879
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington where the sun is out.

923
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 5: Don't be fooled on YouTube. Thanks for listening to the

924
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 5: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

925
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 5: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

926
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 5: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

927
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,240
Speaker 5: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.