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Speaker 1: All right, everybody, I just have to let you all

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Speaker 1: know that our next guest has been the most popular

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Speaker 1: guest that we've had on the David Rutherford Show. His

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Speaker 1: show is the biggest show we've done so far. I

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Speaker 1: had a bunch of the iHeart executives tell me how

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Speaker 1: much they loved the show. And so, in the midst

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Speaker 1: of all the madness that's going on, what we thought

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Speaker 1: would be essential to do for you all is to

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Speaker 1: bring somebody on that knows the ins and the outs

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Speaker 1: of the economy, the markets, and everything financial to help

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Speaker 1: you get a better understanding of how all the chaos

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Speaker 1: is going to affect us as a nation and then

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Speaker 1: our position globally. So, ladies and gentlemen, my good friend

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Speaker 1: Bryce Gill, who by the way, is recently married, So

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Speaker 1: welcome aboard. Bryce.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, hey, it's great to be with you.

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Speaker 3: Dave, always an honor, and yeah, you're the first thing

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Speaker 3: I'm doing since I got back from the wedding, right,

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Speaker 3: so I'm always happy to do this with you and

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Speaker 3: your crew here.

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Speaker 2: And there's obviously it was plenty to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Well, It's crazy thing is that as soon as things

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Speaker 1: were popping off with this one big beautiful Bill.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 1: I'm texting Bryce like, hey man, I need you to

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Speaker 1: get you I need to get you on and He's like, uh, right,

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Speaker 1: I'm at my wedding and but I will as soon

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Speaker 1: as I get home. So I'm so sorry to interrupt

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Speaker 1: that incredible day for you guys.

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Speaker 2: No, not at all. Listen, the Big beautiful Bill.

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Speaker 3: This is like seventeen news cycles ago, Dave, what are

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Speaker 3: we talking about.

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Speaker 2: It's been all about war with Iran this morning. That's right,

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Speaker 2: they're right.

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Speaker 1: But the thing that really hits me about it, and

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Speaker 1: we you know, we did a little peace on it

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Speaker 1: was you know, I think everybody was so excited that

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Speaker 1: with Doge and Trump and their relationship that now is

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Speaker 1: like they're going through their breakeup, you know, remorse now

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Speaker 1: is you know that America was going to address the

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Speaker 1: spending problem, but when we look at this big beautiful

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Speaker 1: bill man, it's they're increasing spending pretty significantly. But what

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Speaker 1: I needed to do is I needed someone like yourself,

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Speaker 1: an expert, to come on and kind of break this

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Speaker 1: down for the audience and let everybody understand what this

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Speaker 1: is about and what you think the impact will be

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Speaker 1: long term.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know, it really matters when we're talking

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Speaker 3: about these types of budget bills what the baseline is,

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Speaker 3: and what I mean by the baseline is like what

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Speaker 3: we're comparing in this new legislation, you know, hypothetical future too, okay.

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Speaker 3: And so you know, you have the Republicans saying, hey,

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Speaker 3: this cuts spending, it reduces you know, the nation spending problem.

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Speaker 3: You have Democrats saying, hey, this blows out the budget deficit.

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Speaker 3: It's like, how can both of those things be true?

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Speaker 3: It's because they're both comparing to a different baseline. So

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Speaker 3: if you take this big beautiful bill and you compare

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Speaker 3: it to current policy, like what currently exists today, okay,

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Speaker 3: it actually reduces spending and reduces the deficit versus like

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Speaker 3: if we just maintain exactly what we're doing right now, okay.

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Speaker 3: And that's because the big beautiful bill, Hey, it does

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Speaker 3: extend some tax cuts, right, but it also does cut

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Speaker 3: a lot of spending. It cuts spending surrounding Medicare, snap benefits,

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Speaker 3: solar wind, electric vehicle credits, and things of this nature.

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Speaker 3: And so like if the Trump tax cuts and kind

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Speaker 3: of like status quo today just continued, the deficit would

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Speaker 3: expand by I think like five trillion dollars over the

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Speaker 3: next ten years. And so the Big Beautiful Bill, Hey,

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Speaker 3: the deficit goes up three trillion dollars over the next

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Speaker 3: ten years. But that means, hey, they cut basically like

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Speaker 3: two trillion dollars worth of spending over the next ten years. Okay,

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Speaker 3: So versus current policy, it actually does reduce the deficit.

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Speaker 2: So what are the Democrats talking about?

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Speaker 3: The Democrats are basically they're comparing it to, hey, the

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Speaker 3: policy base on which just means like the Trump tax

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Speaker 3: cuts and like the current fiscal environment that we have

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Speaker 3: when they pass all this stuff in twenty seventeen, there

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Speaker 3: was a sunset clause.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So in like the.

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Speaker 3: Republic sayings cutting the deficit by like two trillion, Democrats

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Speaker 3: are saying expands by three trillion. That's because they're saying, hey,

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Speaker 3: all this current policy sunsets in twenty twenty five. The

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Speaker 3: Trump tax cuts are set to end, okay, and so

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Speaker 3: versus a like the current policy situation, Like if we

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Speaker 3: don't repass these tax cuts and all these taxes go up, hey,

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Speaker 3: then it leads to this situation where the Big Beautiful

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Speaker 3: bill like expands the deficit by three trillion dollars. So

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Speaker 3: when we're talking about like cutting spending, and I have

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Speaker 3: plenty of things to critique about this bill, and I'm.

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Speaker 2: Happy to go into that.

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Speaker 3: Please, this does actually cut spending versus like the current status. Whoa,

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Speaker 3: it only expands the deficit if you're assuming, hey, all

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Speaker 3: this tax increases happen automatically. Okay, And so I'm for

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Speaker 3: expanding the tax cuts. This doesn't actually expand spending at all,

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Speaker 3: the big beautiful bill. It just extends the tax cuts

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Speaker 3: we already have.

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Speaker 2: Okay. Where I am?

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Speaker 3: I just think was How'm going to contique anything? It's

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Speaker 3: that they're not really attacking spending in like a significant way.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the big question, right is will you

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Speaker 1: bring in elon Mosk, You bring in as you know,

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Speaker 1: Harry Balls or whatever. That guy was my favorite, right

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Speaker 1: oh right, yeah yeah, And you you have these and

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Speaker 1: they dig in and we start to see this. You

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Speaker 1: know what, there was three point two million people one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one hundred and fifty nine years

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Speaker 1: old with social security benefits, right, we were seeing and they.

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Speaker 2: Never even gate.

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Speaker 1: They dangled that little you know, hook in front of

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Speaker 1: us about how the corruption and Medicare and Medicaid and

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Speaker 1: the fraud and that, but we never got those numbers

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Speaker 1: or we not never got anything. So you know, give

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Speaker 1: us your insight on were there enough cuts and if not,

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Speaker 1: where do they need to focus on next.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's disappointing, right because I feel pretty

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Speaker 3: confident saying at this point that, like the Doge project

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Speaker 3: has totally failed.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 3: I mean listen, they found like one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 3: billion dollars of spending cuts that they could do. That

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Speaker 3: remains up to Congress and the President to actually do

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Speaker 3: those things right, But as of today, like I'm just

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Speaker 3: gonna be honest, it looked like it's like sort of

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Speaker 3: a PR stunt. I think Elon Musk is just my

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Speaker 3: personal opinion, right. I think that he came into this

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Speaker 3: like earnestly wanting to cut spending, coming into it with

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Speaker 3: like a CEO mindset, Okay, we're going to find the waste,

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Speaker 3: the front abuse, we're going to reduce this stuff that

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Speaker 3: we don't need to be spending on. And I think

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Speaker 3: very quickly it ran into the reality of Washington, d C.

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Speaker 3: Which is that government spending is the biggest honey pot

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Speaker 3: in world history. Right, Like, I mean, this is like

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Speaker 3: so many powerful people's pockets are being lined here and

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk ai tools these a bunch of these twenty

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Speaker 3: year old genius people or whatever. They came in and

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Speaker 3: they just hit sort of like the reality of the situation,

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Speaker 3: which is that, hey, the Pentagon's not going to let

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Speaker 3: you cut spending. Hey, we're not actually gonna eliminate some

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Speaker 3: of this this waste, brunt abuse in medicare, you know,

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Speaker 3: security payrolls.

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Speaker 2: We're not actually going to eliminate a lot of these

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Speaker 2: other issues that we have.

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Speaker 3: You can have USA, you can have some of these

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Speaker 3: other small things, but at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be business as usual.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 3: I think that's why Elon Musk ultimately left here, is

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Speaker 3: he just wasn't actually given the power to to finish

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Speaker 3: what he wanted to do. I think Donald Trump brought

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Speaker 3: him in, and Elon must helped him get elected obviously,

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Speaker 3: and Donald.

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Speaker 2: Trump, I don't think spending is really a priority.

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Speaker 3: For Donald Trump, honestly, So that's where this fallout has happened.

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Speaker 3: I think Elon Musk, you know, I think he has

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Speaker 3: reasonable arguments to criticize this big beautiful bill. I think

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Speaker 3: the spending cuts don't go further for far enough. And

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Speaker 3: just to be honest, Dave, like to actually affect the

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Speaker 3: fiscal situation in the United States, you have to target

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Speaker 3: the biggest welfare recipients in the country, which is not

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Speaker 3: single moms, which is not you know, government bureaucrats, it's

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Speaker 3: baby boomers. The baby boomers are the biggest welfare queens

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Speaker 3: in America, Social Security, Medicare. All this spending goes pretty

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Speaker 3: much directly to them. The interest payments on the debt, right,

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Speaker 3: that's a trillion dollars a year. Now who owns all

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Speaker 3: the US Treasury bonds the baby boomers, right, So, I

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Speaker 3: mean you're talking about sixty seventy percent of the budgets

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Speaker 3: going directly to baby boomers. And listen, they paid in

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Speaker 3: the system, they deserve retirement benefits. Fine, but the system

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Speaker 3: has gotten so lopsided towards them. Unless you touch that spending,

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Speaker 3: you can't really affect a big change. And you know,

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Speaker 3: the banks, the pharmaceutical companies, the weapons contractors, whatever, we

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Speaker 3: can talk about all these industries and their influence on government.

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Speaker 2: The biggest lobby in the United States though it's ARP right.

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Speaker 1: Did you just saw did you see Trump just initiated

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Speaker 1: that whole concept that if you have a child recently,

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Speaker 1: they're going to put one thousand dollars fun into a

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Speaker 1: market based of fund What are your thoughts on that?

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Speaker 1: Is that a way are they prepping the American public

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Speaker 1: and particular you know, definitely probably not. Maybe my generation

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Speaker 1: is going to be the first that has to swallow

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Speaker 1: that tough bill that you know, as I've been paying

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Speaker 1: in for my whole adult life, I'm probably not going

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Speaker 1: to get access to that and the meaningful way that

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Speaker 1: my parents did. But do you think that's what this

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Speaker 1: whole thing is as they're priming for a new system,

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Speaker 1: a new approach in the future. Okay, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for listening today. Pardon the interruption, but I just

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Speaker 1: got to give a shout out to one of our

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Speaker 1: big sponsors here and this comes from my good friend Alex,

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Speaker 1: you know, who has a family owned business called Firecracker Farm.

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Speaker 1: When I talk about family business, and I've worked with

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Speaker 1: thousands of family businesses across the country for the last

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Speaker 1: their peppers with love. I watch how they process them

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Speaker 1: I promise you. That's Firecracker dot Farm.

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Speaker 3: I don't know that they're trying to do like a

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Speaker 3: wholesale change to the system. I think they're trying to

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Speaker 3: tinker around the edges with what we call like pro

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Speaker 3: natalist policy, which is just like, hey, how do we

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Speaker 3: like pull some leverage and flip some switch in the

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Speaker 3: government to like incentivize people to have children.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, you can look around the world.

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Speaker 3: There's other places that have done pronatalst government policy, and.

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Speaker 2: It just doesn't really seem to work very well. There's

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Speaker 2: not like a lot.

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Speaker 3: Of evidence that I'm going to pay you one thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars to have a kid.

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Speaker 2: Is going to do anything.

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Speaker 3: The biggest issues I think with people having children is

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Speaker 3: housing costs, the cost of healthcare, and like the cost

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Speaker 3: of education. Right, So those are the real issues you

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Speaker 3: need to tackle, and like I don't know on all

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Speaker 3: three fronts, maybe a little bit less on like education.

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Speaker 3: But why is housing so expensive while you know, we

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Speaker 3: don't really build any housing. Why don't we build housing?

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Speaker 3: It's because in certain cities, like Baby boomers don't want

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Speaker 3: more houses around their houses, right. A lot of people

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Speaker 3: own investment properties. Baby boomers are one of the biggest

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Speaker 3: owners of investment property. They don't they trade up or

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Speaker 3: trade down. They sort of stay in their houses forever, right.

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Speaker 3: I saw some anecdotes of like baby borns are the

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Speaker 3: first generation ever to move into bigger houses as they retire,

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Speaker 3: which is just sort of hilarious. Right, It's supposed to

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Speaker 3: be the opposite, so they don't really retire from their jobs.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not trying to like rag on baby overs

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Speaker 3: only here, but I just think our system has become

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Speaker 3: so lopsided towards like retirees and older Americans that, yeah,

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Speaker 3: the younger people are coming up below and they're like, hey,

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Speaker 3: everything's sort of unaffordable. The system's really built to help

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Speaker 3: older people. Children are expensive. I'm not really gonna have

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Speaker 3: kids in this environment. So I think you got to

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Speaker 3: tackle like those three major chunks there.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a great.

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Speaker 3: Probably, you know, society just needs to incentivize it a

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Speaker 3: little bit more. Celebrate parents and celebrate children. We don't

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Speaker 3: really do that over in the West.

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Speaker 2: That's for sure.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a great little pivot point for us

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Speaker 1: to talk about the current state of the economy. What

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Speaker 1: does it look like if you're a thirty year old

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Speaker 1: you know, man or woman, you know, and you're looking

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Speaker 1: externally at the economy. What are you seeing right now

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Speaker 1: that should either give you hope or what should cause

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Speaker 1: some consternation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I guess you.

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Speaker 3: Only last time I was on with you was right

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Speaker 3: after all these tariffs got announced. Everybody's panicking. It was

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Speaker 3: the end of the world. The economy is going into recession.

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Speaker 3: Here we are, like three or four months later. It's

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Speaker 3: well after the tariffs have come out. We have a

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Speaker 3: lot of economic data, and what the economic data says,

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Speaker 3: basically is that inflation has continued to moderate and the

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Speaker 3: economy has continued to grow. Right, So it doesn't look

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Speaker 3: like any of this really disrupted things in a massive

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Speaker 3: way as I sort of predicted.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'll pat myself on the back there a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But big picture, I mean, listen to this economy looks

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Speaker 3: pretty healthy right now. I think you've probably got consumers

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Speaker 3: are a little overextended, you know, certain credit card debt

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Speaker 3: or like auto loan debt is looking like, hey, we're

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Speaker 3: sort of getting later cycle but at the same time,

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Speaker 3: what you have is a massive investment boom happening in

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Speaker 3: the United States, right, Companies, businesses, everybody's sort of investing

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Speaker 3: in factory production, bringing industry back home because they want

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Speaker 3: to be behind the tariff wall. Because the United States

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Speaker 3: were like fifty percent of global consumption. So if you

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Speaker 3: lose ust, you lose half your revenue. So you know,

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Speaker 3: all that investment, what that's going to do is going

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Speaker 3: to drive hiring, it's going to drive wages higher, it's

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Speaker 3: going to make people more productive. And at the same time,

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Speaker 3: I think this is a really interesting part of the

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Speaker 3: recent labor market. Before we got last Friday, Okay, well

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Speaker 3: you saw is basically, hey, the labor force has shrank, Okay,

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Speaker 3: but it's driven entirely by foreign born labor. So basically

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Speaker 3: it looks like a lot of people are either getting

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Speaker 3: deported or self deporting right to get get out of this,

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Speaker 3: you know, this crack down on illegal immigration. And hey, meanwhile,

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Speaker 3: the domestic labor forces continued to grow. People will domestically

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Speaker 3: have less people to compete against in the labor market,

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Speaker 3: their wages are rising more rapidly, and so I think

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Speaker 3: it's kind of like a nationalist economic policy. Right, Domestic

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Speaker 3: Americans I think are doing pretty well. I think the

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Speaker 3: economy is going to continue to grow. I'm not saying

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Speaker 3: there's not problems, but we are reversing some of the

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Speaker 3: trends in the past thirty years. And I think the

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Speaker 3: biggest beneficiaries have been you know, kind of normal people basically.

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Speaker 3: So I do think there's some reasons for optimists about

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Speaker 3: the US economy right now.

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Speaker 2: That's awesome to hear.

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Speaker 1: Man. You know, the biggest thing I when I'm talking

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Speaker 1: to younger you know, advisors or younger people just around

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Speaker 1: as as you and I both speak constantly around the country,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm asking you know what do you what

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Speaker 1: are you telling your the people that are coming in

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Speaker 1: that are trying to set up portfolios, that are trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to generate some growth in their wealth.

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Speaker 1: You know, what do you evaluate is the right message

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Speaker 1: for what what should this next gener Those people who

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Speaker 1: you know are getting married, like yourself, who are thinking

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Speaker 1: about starting new families. Jordi himself's about ready to have

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Speaker 1: his first child. So you know, what advice do you

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Speaker 1: give you know, your generation of people about building wealth

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Speaker 1: right now? And what we're looking for in the future.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, listen, I think building wealth is unfortunately

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Speaker 3: a pretty boring topic. Everybody wants to have like the

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Speaker 3: big stock pick to tell people about it at dinner party.

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Speaker 2: It's really just discipline. It's building well.

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Speaker 3: It's the same way you get like in really good

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Speaker 3: shape at the gym. Right, it's just showing up every

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Speaker 3: day and doing it consistently. And hey, I'm gonna eat, well,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna show up to the gym. You know, I'm

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Speaker 3: not gonna make the bad decision consistently. You make the

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Speaker 3: good decision consistently.

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Speaker 2: Right. It's the same thing with building well.

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Speaker 3: So I'd say, like, listen, just contribute money into an

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Speaker 3: index fund in the s and P five hundred a

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Speaker 3: consistently every two weeks or every.

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Speaker 2: Month and whatever you can afford.

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Speaker 3: Don't even look at the balance and just kind of

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Speaker 3: let it, let it fly, and over time, that's going

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Speaker 3: to build, build, build build. Once you kind of have

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Speaker 3: that baseline, then you can get a little bit more creative, right,

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Speaker 3: you can start looking at individual stocks or whatever else.

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Speaker 2: Right, So it's just.

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Speaker 3: About discipline and consistency. Honestly, I wish I had a

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Speaker 3: sexier answer, but that's kind of the reality of it

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Speaker 3: being in the industry for over a decade. And also,

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Speaker 3: like go read every academic paper, they're going to tell

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Speaker 3: you the same this same thing. But by the way,

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Speaker 3: I work at an investment manager, right that sells individual

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Speaker 3: ETFs or kind of an individual like strategies.

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Speaker 2: But you're as an individual, go buy an index one. Right.

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Speaker 2: I'm not even trying to push you into what I'm selling, right,

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Speaker 2: all Right.

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Speaker 1: Last question is, and I think this is the one

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Speaker 1: that you know is slowly as as the world's on fire,

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Speaker 1: is buried, buried, buried, but it's still consequential.

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Speaker 2: Is the spat between Powell and Trump?

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Speaker 1: Right, the war between the federal government and the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 1: What's your take and what do you think are they

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Speaker 1: going to be forced to drop rates or why are

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Speaker 1: they holding hard where they're at right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I guess the first thing I'll say is one, personally,

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Speaker 3: I don't have like an allergy towards like Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: I think that's kind of the way to think of,

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Speaker 3: like people just have an allergy towards this guy, like

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Speaker 3: everything he does annoys them.

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Speaker 2: I don't really get that with Donald Trump. I'm happy.

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Speaker 3: I like some of the things he does. I dislike

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Speaker 3: some of the things he does. You know, I also

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Speaker 3: will say I.

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Speaker 2: Think current economic conditions would like I.

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Speaker 3: Think they support maybe like fifty basis points and rate cuts,

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Speaker 3: like a minor amount of interest rate cuts.

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Speaker 2: I sort of support that.

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Speaker 3: Okay, all that being said, Okay, I think that central

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Speaker 3: bank independence, basically the Federal Reserve making its own decisions, separate.

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Speaker 2: And divorce from politics, is very important. Okay.

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Speaker 3: So I have a huge problem personally with Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: trying to dictate FED policy or sort of bully the

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Speaker 3: Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 2: One, I don't think it'll work.

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Speaker 3: I think Jerome Powell frankly is just going to like

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Speaker 3: turtle up and wait even longer to cut interest rates.

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Speaker 2: Out of spite.

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Speaker 3: Right, Right, But two, like, central bank independence is really

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Speaker 3: important because you don't want politicians in charge of the

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Speaker 3: money supply, right Like, this is like a fundamental thing

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Speaker 3: that keeps us from becoming Zimbabwe or Venezuela or Argentina

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Speaker 3: or whatever. Right, anytime the central government and the central

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Speaker 3: bank get together and they just print money like crazy

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Speaker 3: to fix all the problems and paper over things. The

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Speaker 3: people that get hurt. The worst are investors as well

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Speaker 3: as normal people. Right, it's not just investors, right, it

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Speaker 3: destroys the economy. So listen, there's obviously politics involved at

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Speaker 3: the central Bank too. Frankly, they've been too involved in politics, right.

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Speaker 3: They care about like climate change and diversity and racism

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Speaker 3: and LB pipes and whatever.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so they need to back off of that. But listen,

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Speaker 2: they need to focus on the money supply and interest rates.

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Speaker 3: And I think central bank independence is really important because

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Speaker 3: you don't want politicians in charge of the money supply.

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Speaker 3: We saw it, by the way, we saw what happened

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Speaker 3: when the federal government and the central bank worked together

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Speaker 3: during COVID. They shut down the economy. They printed five

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Speaker 3: trillion dollars, made the highest inflation in forty years. So

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Speaker 3: that shows you what happens when everybody gets on board together.

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Speaker 3: Nobody's thinking. Everybody's kind of panicking. I think the Central

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Speaker 3: Bank just needs to do its thing and they need

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Speaker 3: to ignore Donald Trump. That's my personal opinion.

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Speaker 2: Roger.

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Speaker 1: That all right, Bryce Gill, Where can people follow you?

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Speaker 1: Pay attention and what's next for you?

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Speaker 3: Yes, sir, well, hey, First Trust Economics Blog, that's where

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Speaker 3: we write all of our pieces.

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Speaker 2: Everything gets posted there.

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Speaker 3: If you want to follow along with our opinion as

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Speaker 3: a firm, that's the place to go. You can also

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Speaker 3: follow me on Twitter you want to. Don't really post there,

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Speaker 3: but hey, I like a lot of different content and.

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Speaker 2: You can kind of see what.

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Speaker 3: My journal is internally. I guys, that's daddy fat stats.

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Speaker 1: That still kills me the most, man, Daddy fat Stats.

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Speaker 2: I love it.

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Speaker 1: I love it all right, Bryce, God bless you man,

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Speaker 1: So happy for you and your new wife. And we'll

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Speaker 1: see in the short time in the near future.

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Speaker 3: All right, guys, have a good one