1 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network. 2 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman. Listen. Week one of college football is 3 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: coming up, and uh we have an amazing guest later 4 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: on the show. Connor O'Gara at c J O'Gara on Twitter. 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: He is a columnist for Saturday down South. He's got 6 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: great insight into betting the Week one games since he's 7 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: been covering this thing non stop and it is all 8 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: over it for Saturday down South dot com. But first up, 9 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: as always Bookmaker of the World from Boyd Gaming. Here 10 00:00:46,440 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: he comes Mr Bob Scoocci, my brother Chad. What's going on, Scooch? 11 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: We want to college football is here. I feel like 12 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: college football is getting bigger and bigger every year. And 13 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: I know that sort of sounds weird, Like why do 14 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: you feel that way when this spoart has been a 15 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: massively popular sport for a hundred and fifty years. But 16 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: here's the truth. Um, The ratings for that Miami Florida 17 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: game were massive. Our numbers on the first Saturday of 18 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: college football were massive. They were rivaling what we had 19 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: done during March Madness, which are the biggest days we've 20 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: ever had. I would bet that the activity in your 21 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: sports book for basically two prime college football games was extraordinary. 22 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: And my take is that betting has a lot to 23 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: do with it. What do you think, I think absolutely. 24 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: I think you know now that uh sports books are 25 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: up and running in eight different states, uh uh, that 26 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: the mass appeal is starting to to really take effect 27 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: in both betting and viewership. I think, you know, there's 28 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: always been the relationship between betting and watching, you know, 29 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: particularly if there's a team that's supposed to win by 30 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: twenty or thirty points. Unless there's kind of a rooting 31 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: interest from a betting perspective, you know, what else is 32 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: there to kind of keep you captivated watching that game. 33 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: So I think the viewership is directly related to to betting, 34 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: and I think I think both are going to be 35 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: getting bigger and bigger in the next two years. So 36 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,679 Speaker 1: let's let's talk about that Miami versus Florida game. That 37 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: total on that game was anywhere from I think as 38 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: low as forty five or forty six all the way 39 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: up to maybe fifty and the final score in the 40 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: last three minutes, there was a litany of pass interference calls, 41 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: fumbles that were recovered by Miami. Um, all these things 42 00:02:54,680 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 1: that from the perspective of under betters probably had them youing, 43 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 1: like there is already some kind of karmic conspiracy against them, 44 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: Like the gas just did not want that game to 45 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 1: go under. Um what side of the game where the 46 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: books on? And uh tell me how you were feeling 47 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 1: during that game at the end? Uh? Probably so the 48 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: books needed the favorite. We needed Florida. We opened the game. 49 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: I think we're as high as eight at one point. 50 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,839 Speaker 1: We closed at seven. A lot of money coming in 51 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: on Miami. And I actually liked the underdog in that game. 52 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: Just from from keeping track of a local kid tape Martel, 53 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: the Martel Tate or the kid from multiple high school 54 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: here that is on the team. I knew that they 55 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: would be a live dog in that game. So um, 56 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: uh we didn't. We didn't need Miami. But obviously they played. 57 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: They played a great game. From the under perspective, we 58 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: needed it to stay under, so that that worked in 59 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: our favor. I think. Uh, just most of the public 60 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: were on the over. Uh, some of the sharp betters 61 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: were on the under. But you know the way that 62 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: the game ended, I mean, obviously there was a lot 63 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: of penalties throughout the game. I think Miami played a 64 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:11,279 Speaker 1: little bit of a sloppy game from the penalty perspective 65 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 1: of it. Um you know, from someone watching sports from 66 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 1: a betting angle for all these years, it's it's nothing 67 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: uncommon to me to see that kind of effect. Like 68 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 1: in other words, you're rooting for a particular over or 69 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: under and you think that there's something going on to 70 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: prevent it from hitting that number, and it's just the 71 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: way it goes. There's nobody orchestrating that. So let me 72 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: just kind of clear that up right away. I've seen 73 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of games that you think, are 74 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: you know, it can't possibly go this way, and it does. Uh. 75 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 1: But in the sports book, people were just kind of 76 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,559 Speaker 1: like it was pretty loud a cheering on every play 77 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 1: because half the half the room had the over, the 78 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: other half had the under. So I think it's exciting 79 00:04:57,880 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: when it's kind of sitting right at the number like 80 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: that teams right in the red zone and that kind 81 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: of puts the game over and affects the money line 82 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: that could it couldn't have started with a better game 83 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: to hop In the college football you do forget. It's 84 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: almost like a muscle. Like you gotta work out how 85 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: different the feeling is when you are sweating a football 86 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: game versus anything else. It is a different pace, there's 87 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: a different dramatic note to the rhythm of watching football 88 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: and sort of how everything builds up to sort of 89 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: a climax that is just a couple of seconds long. 90 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: I don't mean a double entendre there, and and uh 91 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: because it is like you it's you don't feel that 92 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: way when you're sweating a basketball game or sweating a 93 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: baseball game, as you do when you're sweating a football game. 94 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: You just don't. It's like it's an entirely different muscle. Yeah, no, absolutely. 95 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: You know, there's so much drama in football, partially because, 96 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: like you said, the pace of the game. You know, 97 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: you're leading up to the particular play, so the dramas 98 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: kind of enhancing. You don't get that in basketball because 99 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: it's so fluid, it's back and forth. You only get 100 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: it in basketball at the end, you know, the last 101 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: twenty seconds of the game, when there's a lot of 102 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: timeouts and you're kind of building up to that last shot. 103 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: But uh, in football, you get so much drama on 104 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 1: key plays during the game. You know, those third down 105 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: plays that kind of make or break whether your your 106 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: team is going to cover. So um, like I said, 107 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: it's exciting to see it back. Uh after after a 108 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: long off season and sweat baseball games. It's great to 109 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: get back in the football swing of things. Meanwhile, in 110 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,919 Speaker 1: the middle of all that, Adam Schefter tweets out that 111 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: Andrew Luck is retiring forces Andrew Luck to up the 112 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: schedule for when he was going to release that news 113 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 1: and go from Sunday to Saturday night. Um. I know 114 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: at the Action Network we were immediately in slack trading messages. 115 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: What is this due to the future odds? What is 116 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: this due to the division odds? What is this due 117 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 1: to the win totals? How are we updating the fantasy 118 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: pro the fantasy projections and models? Um? What is that 119 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: moment like for you in a sports book when a 120 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: high profile player like Andrew Luck is unexpectedly announcing his retirement. 121 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: It's zero to sixty in like you know, two seconds, 122 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: you're trying to scramble to find out everything that impacts 123 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: uh that that his retiring impact that you have on 124 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: the betting board. So right right away we try to 125 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: suspend betting on Game one, the preseason game game game one, 126 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: of the regular season odds to win the division, odds 127 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: to win the a f C, odds to win the 128 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and any other props that are associated with it. 129 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: So you know, eventually then we'll eventually adjust. So we 130 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: went from the season win total from nine and a 131 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: half down to seven and a half. We we moved 132 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: their future odds in the a f C from uh 133 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: to one to I'm sorry, from six to one up 134 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: to fifty to one. And then the odds to win 135 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, we we went from five to one 136 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: to two and fifty to one. So you know, everything 137 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: is just fast and furious and when and you have 138 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: to move quickly before all the bets come in. And 139 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: you know he's not the only one. And I've often said, 140 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: you know, we kind of kind of like the stock market. 141 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: You buy on the rumor and you sell on the news. 142 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: That the betters are going to take a chance as 143 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: soon as they hear something, whether it's actual or not. 144 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: You know, they take a shot on betting on the 145 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: rumor and then if it turns out to be true, 146 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: then they could either try and get off the bet 147 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: or kind of hedge in some way. So we have 148 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: to be really quick because as soon as we hear 149 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 1: the rumor, we we take the betting off until we 150 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: kind of assessed the situation and so how long have 151 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: were you down? And then when did you go back up? 152 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: So as soon as we knew that it was for real, 153 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: you know that that he was definitely retiring, that this 154 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: was not just kind of the lip service. Um, then 155 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: we went up as soon as the next day, as 156 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: soon as we knew that it was for real, and 157 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 1: then we adjusted everything. We adjusted the division odds, the 158 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: FC odds. We went in game one, the Chargers were 159 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 1: a three point favorite. They're now a seven point favorite 160 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: without luck. So made made a lot of adjustments very quickly. Um. 161 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 1: And then you know in other instances, you know, we're 162 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: like Cam Newton was in a walking boot. You know, 163 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: we do the same thing there and then we then 164 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: we adjust, and you know, it's just constantly you have 165 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: to pay attention. You have to look at as many 166 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: sources as you can to see what's real and what's 167 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: kind of expect it. Uh. I feel like you didn't 168 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: adjust enough. A lot of other books went from nine 169 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: and a half down to six and a half on 170 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: the Colts that we didn't adjust enough. Yeah, so I 171 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: I mean, we'll let the money dictate it. But right 172 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 1: now at at seven and a half, um, we're still 173 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: getting We're not getting any big bets, but we probably 174 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: should adjust a little bit more. Um. I guess we'll 175 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: see how how they look in their their their final 176 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: game with I don't know if Jacoby Brissett is going 177 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: to get any playing time, but they've they've they've got 178 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: to make some moves quick. I think you're gonna find that. 179 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: I'm right, I think you're gonna find that from now on, 180 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 1: you probably should call me before you make any big, 181 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: high profile moves because I'm very attuned to, uh, the 182 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: consumer markets when it comes to betting. Well, the reality 183 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: is that the Colts had a really good team. Obviously 184 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 1: Luck is is is a big part of that. And 185 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: not only mean that as a pun uh, I mean 186 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: some of the conversation was, you know, should should Luck 187 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: go through rehab half the season with the understanding that 188 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: Brissett could probably take them to a four four record 189 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: going into the latter half of the season, So you know, 190 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: if he's expected to get four wins just the first 191 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: half of the season. You know, it's not a big 192 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: stretch that he could eke out, Uh you know, another 193 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: another three. Uh So I don't know, you're I'm kind 194 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: of talking myself out of what my number is, kind 195 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: of leading towards going on to the seven and a half. 196 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: So as always, Chad, you are right. You know. Also 197 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: with your punt, you have made this the most literate 198 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: betting podcast in the history of betting podcasts, the most 199 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 1: literate podcast that. By the way, well, I'll get us 200 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: some listeners, the favorite, the most literate betting podcast in town. 201 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: That'll amp up the numbers. Hey, listen, By the way, 202 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: I don't forget people. Connor Garrett from Saturday Down South 203 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: is coming on next. He's going to talk a lot 204 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 1: about this weekend's week one for college football. The best 205 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: that he likes the most, UM, the team outside of 206 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: the the most obvious college football playoff favorites that he 207 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: would put his money on, UM, the top twenty five 208 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: that he thinks is the best value this weekend. UM. 209 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: And if he had to choose between the two biggest 210 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: favorites to bet this weekend, Clemson it minus thirty seven 211 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: and a half over Georgia Tech or Penn State minus 212 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: thirty nine over Idaho. Who would you choose to bet 213 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: on if you had to bet one of the favorites? 214 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 1: Connor is going to answer all those questions, Scooch, Who 215 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: would you bet? Who would you bet if you had 216 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: to bet? Uh? You had to bet Penn State minus 217 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: thirty nine or a Clemson minus thirty seven and a half. 218 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: I'm taking Clemson just against Georgia. How come? Well, you know, 219 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 1: I'm just you're just throwing it at me, so, uh well, 220 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: I'm asking you to take Why are you taking Clemson 221 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: is the biggest favorite? These were the two biggest favorites 222 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: in the top So why would you take Clemson instead 223 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: of Penn State? More confidence in who? Who would run 224 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 1: up a score more? Uh, out of those two teams? 225 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: And I think and I think it would just be 226 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: Clemson that would be able to put up you know, 227 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: fifty six points, knowing what their offenses is capable of. 228 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,559 Speaker 1: And and I just have more confidence that in Clemson's 229 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: offense than ten states that that they're going to put 230 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: up like a fifty or sixty spot. Yeah, I don't 231 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: disagree with you. I also don't like the fact that 232 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: Georgia Tech is basically trying to build a brand new 233 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: offense right now. Um, and then I got to open 234 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: the season against one of the generationally great college football teams, 235 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: against a quarterback who might end up winning the Heisman 236 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: this year and in the year after winning a national 237 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: title as a freshman, and will probably end up his 238 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: career as like as storied as Paul Horning. You know 239 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: what I mean? M M, yeah, I just came up 240 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: with that. I didn't need the time. Just off the 241 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: top of your head. Just rattle it off. Give me 242 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: the five games right now that the wise guys are 243 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: betting the most as we head into Week one. Um, 244 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: a little bit on Texas over Louise louise An Attech 245 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: got some some big money there. What's the number Texas 246 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: over law Tech. Yeah, so we went from we went 247 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: from nineteen and a half up to twenty one and 248 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: a half. Um, Missouri over Wyoming, big move there. Number 249 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: went from fourteen and a half up to seventeen and 250 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: a half. So a lot of money on on Missouri there. 251 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: Do you feel like three points in college football between 252 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: a team that is you know, SEC, even if it's 253 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: missoo that isn't going to do anything special this offseason 254 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: or this this postseason versus Wyoming. Do you think three 255 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: points is a big move? Like what makes that a 256 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: big move to you? Well, I will say in college 257 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: football that three point moves are more the norm than 258 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: they ever used to be. Yeah, that's what I mean. 259 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: We are Yeah, no, absolutely, um so if you if 260 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: you know that, that's also why if you look at 261 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: teas your payouts, six point teaser in college football, uh 262 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: as a lot more than a six point teaser in 263 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: NFL football for that very reason that the six points 264 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: in the NFL means a lot more uh than it 265 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: than it does in college and so so yeah, we 266 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: are seeing those those those bigger swings um uh style 267 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: of game. You know, the scoring is up in college football, 268 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: so there's a there's a number of factors that kind 269 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: of lessen the value of one point move or three 270 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: point move. So but we have seen it, have noticed 271 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 1: it all right, Um what else you got? Um A 272 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: lot on U c l A against Cincinnati. That's another um, 273 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: I mean that's around the key numbers. So not a 274 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: big line move, but just a lot of money on 275 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: on U c l A. Um. Probably the biggest, Uh, Wisconsin. 276 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: We have a lot of money, but I mean that's 277 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: kind of a public game over South Florida that uh 278 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half. Not that's probably not sharp money. 279 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: That's in fact, we have a couple of sharp bets 280 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 1: on South Florida there, but just a ton of money 281 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: on Wisconsin. And the other one that the wise guys 282 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: are on where the public is on the opposite team 283 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: is Oklahoma State Oregon State. Oklahoma State's minus thirteen and 284 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: a half now and the public is overwhelmingly on oak State, 285 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: but the wise guys are on Oregon State. So a 286 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: lot of money on Oregon State there. And we've gone 287 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: from seventeen down to fourteen and a half on that one, 288 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: or seventeen down the thirteen and a half on that 289 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: one again. Yeah, Oregon State, one of the worst teams 290 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: of the past decade, is getting that much money against 291 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: a high flying Mike Gundee Oklahoma State cowboy offense. What's 292 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: going on there? Yeah, that that one scares me a 293 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: little bit. I Mean, I know Oregon States a lot 294 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: going to be a lot better than than they have 295 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: been in previous seasons, but that's not saying much. Getting 296 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: double digits at home. Uh, it's a wise guy play, 297 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: but to this extent, uh scares me a little bit. 298 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: And I don't want to be in a position where 299 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 1: I'm sitting at thirteen and a half too long because 300 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: the public is on Oak State. Uh. You know, I'll 301 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 1: be quick to move this right back up as we 302 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: as we draw closer to game time. And that's another 303 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: thing that we have seen a trend as well. We've 304 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: seen a lot of these big points swings, but we 305 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: half of them go back to the opening number. So 306 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: it's kind of deciphering which ones are the real plays 307 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 1: and which ones are just kind of trying to manipulate 308 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: the market. Someone's trying to you're ready. Are you ready? 309 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: Oh my god, talking about literate Here you go, You're ready. 310 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: Someone's trying to screw the scooch. That is literal, you 311 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: get it, instead of like a pun on screw the pooch. Yeah. Yeah, 312 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: they're just trying to screw the scooch. We are so 313 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: we are so punny. It's a roll. Oh my god, 314 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: we have better stuff. Hey, here's my last question for you, 315 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: my last question for you before I let you go. Uh, 316 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: we are seventy two hours or so away from kickoff 317 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 1: for Week one fifty games this weekend. You will then 318 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: sort of have a really good sense of where you 319 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: are most vulnerable for the national title. Right now, what 320 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: team makes you the most vulnerable to win the national title? 321 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 1: It's probably Georgia you're talking about, like in in terms 322 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: of future ability and yeah, yeah, yeah, there was. There 323 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: was just a lot of money on Georgia. I figured 324 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: they were the best team to contend with Clemson in Alabama. Um, 325 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: Notre Dame is right up there again, just because of 326 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: their popularity in their national appeal. Uh, not so much 327 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: because from a wise guy perspective, but certainly a lot 328 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: of people like Georgia. I'm so glad to ask you 329 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: that question, Scooch, because not even knowing that was the case, 330 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: you have given me the perfect audition into our next 331 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: guest who's going to talk a lot about why he 332 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: loves Georgia to win it all, and that would be 333 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 1: Connor O'Gara from Saturday Down South, Bob Scucci. As always, 334 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: thank you for coming on your podcast. You're on every 335 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: week now Football Season Star every week through the end 336 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: of the years. Alright, alright, buddy, thanks man. As promised 337 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 1: the next up on the Favorites the podcast. It's almost 338 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: like this guy's my doppelganger. Connor O'Gara at c J 339 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 1: O'Gara c J o g A r A on Twitter, 340 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: Senior national columns for the Senior national columnist for Saturday 341 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 1: down South dot com, co host of the Saturday Down 342 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: South podcast. You know what that means. He knows a 343 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: lot about college football, especially in the South, and he's 344 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: from Chicago. He graduated from IU Indiana University, the only EU, 345 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: and also got parking tickets parked outside of Ernie Platlehall 346 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 1: when we both were working at the Indiana Daily Students, 347 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: separated by mere decades. Connor, thanks for coming on the podcast, man, Yeah, 348 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: thanks for thanks for having me. It's always it's always 349 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: great to meet uh, to meet an i U alone, 350 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: I feel like it's such a small world. At the 351 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: same time, the alumni base is it's so massive. Even 352 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: down here in Orlando. I'll run into Indiana alums every 353 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: once in a while and I'm like, oh, yeah, that's 354 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: that's what happens when you go with the Kent school 355 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: that had like forty moment So, um, did you actually 356 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: go to i U football games, because I did. I 357 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 1: think I was the only person who basically went to 358 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: every i U football game. Yeah, I mean defined go 359 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 1: to if go to means go to tailgates, and I mean, yeah, 360 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: I went through a ton about you football games. But um, yeah, 361 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,479 Speaker 1: I mean I went to pretty much every game as 362 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 1: a freshman, and sophomore year that kind of faded, and 363 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 1: then junior year I covered the team for for the 364 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: Indiana Daily Students, so I was at every game, and 365 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,919 Speaker 1: then senior year, yeah, I've got back to my tailgating 366 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: ways a little bit more so. But yeah, I can't 367 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: say that I sat there and it became a die 368 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: hard IU football fans. So when you were covering in 369 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 1: college football, is that when you sort of got the 370 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: bug and you're like, I gotta do this full time. 371 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: I gotta find a way to do this for a living, 372 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 1: and then I gotta find a way to do it 373 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: in an actual football region, not Indiana. You know, it's 374 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: funny you mentioned that because back in the day of 375 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: the way that the hierarchy used to work in a 376 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 1: place like Indiana, we cover football so that we can 377 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 1: cover basketball because that's what everybody cares about, and football. 378 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: It's kind of the the step below the basketball beat. 379 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,639 Speaker 1: I remember getting to school at IU and being a 380 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: freshman and and signing up to join the newspaper and 381 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,359 Speaker 1: just thinking to myself, man, if I could just cover 382 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: the basketball team one day, that would be like made 383 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 1: in the shade. And so I covered the football team 384 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: as a junior and then did sports was sports editor 385 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: my second semester that year, and then was fortunate enough 386 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: to be able to cover basketball. But at the time, 387 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: I kept thinking to myself, college basketball, I I could 388 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: make a living doing that. And I didn't really have 389 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 1: the college football itch. I didn't really grow up with 390 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: it in the same way that so many people around 391 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: my area down here did because I grew up in 392 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: the northwest suburbs of Chicago, where you know, my aunt 393 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,160 Speaker 1: would take me to the Northwestern games and everyone saw 394 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: that go down the Champagne for Nonois game, and it's 395 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 1: just totally different atmosphere, so to me, you know, I 396 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: was raised loving college basketball and in pro sports as 397 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: well growing up where I did, so I didn't really 398 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 1: get to college football. It's actually until I, you know, 399 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: after I graduated, I worked out in Central Nebraska covering 400 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: high school sports for a local newspaper. And you know, 401 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 1: one of the things that I that I did with 402 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 1: that is I would make the two hour drive every 403 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 1: Saturday in the fall to go cover in Nebraska football 404 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 1: home games, and seeing those I kind of just took 405 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,199 Speaker 1: me back and I was like, Wow, this college football 406 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 1: really is as crazy as people say it is. And 407 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: that ultimately is what led to this opportunity that I 408 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: was able to get with Saturday down South and Saturday tradition. 409 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: So yeah, in kind of a weird way, I guess 410 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: that was the beginning of it. But at the time 411 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 1: I was, I was focused on to a college basketball. Yeah. 412 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 1: It's so funny you say that, because I remember, Uh, 413 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: I was on the same path. I covered uh, I 414 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: you women's volleyball, then I covered A you wrestling, then 415 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: I covered I you baseball, and the next gig that 416 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 1: I was going to get was I you football, and 417 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: then I was going to cover AU basketball, and um 418 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 1: that was like the path, right and um my junior year, uh, 419 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 1: instead of staying in school, I went to London and 420 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 1: first semester and so they didn't I couldn't cover the 421 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 1: basketball team and I couldn't cover the football team. Um, 422 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: so I missed out on covering a basketball I feel 423 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 1: like it worked out okay, But that, like covering college 424 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: football or college basketball for your school newspaper, is a 425 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: phenomenal experience and like a phenomenal proving ground, Like you 426 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: get to learn what it's like to cover something at 427 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 1: a really high level for a place that very few 428 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 1: people are reading, but everybody is passionate about it, and 429 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: it means a lot of the players, like you get 430 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: an outsized amount of attention. You get to deal with 431 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: what it's like to be criticizing the people that you're 432 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: covering and have them have to react to that. Oh. Absolutely, 433 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: And it was just a fantastic way to get started. 434 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,479 Speaker 1: I always say to people, if you're in the journalism school, 435 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: that's like cool, like great, you're taking classes that felt 436 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: well and good. You are the real the real life, 437 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 1: real world job experience. Actually being out in the field 438 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 1: and doing student newspaper. I think should be a prerequisite 439 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 1: for any journalism student, whether you want to do newspaper 440 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 1: or not, or you know, into that field, because I 441 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 1: think it just teaches you actually how to right and 442 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: how to work on deadlines and to get to do 443 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: so while covering a Big ten football program and a 444 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: Big ten basketball program. It was just such a blessing, 445 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: and I realized, looking back now, to be able to 446 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: do that at you know, nine years old, it's just 447 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: isn't such an incredible opportunity, And I'm I'm grateful that 448 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: I was able to get that opportunity as early as 449 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,919 Speaker 1: I did. Alright, so let's get down to brass tacks here, 450 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: because the college football season opens in earnest week this 451 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: this weekend Week one. UH. Georgia is one of the 452 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 1: most interesting teams to me, and obviously you're writing for 453 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 1: Saturday down South, you're living in the South. Um, They're 454 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 1: going to be at the centerpiece of a lot of conversations. 455 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: Generally in the SEC, they've kind of been dominant, and 456 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: you wrote about this earlier this summer, like what they've 457 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: done the past two seasons with Kirby Smart, They've won 458 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: every one of their games by fourteen points. Their average 459 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: marketing margin of victory is twenty five points in seven 460 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty total minutes of game time, they've trailed 461 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 1: nine and a half minutes in Kudos to Matt Mitchell, 462 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 1: producer Podcast Extraordinaire, forgive me all these staffs from your story. 463 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: So here's the question. Here's the question. Do you bet 464 00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 1: Georgia not to win the East or Alabama them not 465 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: to make the playoffs? Well, I got Georgia winning the 466 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: national championship. So where do I fall on that? Um? 467 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 1: I think this is the year for for Georgia and 468 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: I think that Bama makes the playoff as well. I 469 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 1: think what ultimately happens. I know that's hedging a little bit, 470 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: but UM, I think what ultimately happens this year is 471 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 1: I think Bama goes into the SEC Championship undefeated, just 472 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: as it did last year. Georgia goes in with one loss, 473 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 1: just as it did last year. But this time, I 474 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 1: think Georgia is finally able to get over the hump 475 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: and I think they're finally able to beat Alabama and 476 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: that paves the way and that's that's the remaining hurdle 477 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:35,919 Speaker 1: for them, and I think that they will ultimately go 478 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,640 Speaker 1: on to win two games and capture their first national 479 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 1: championships in and now I've gone back and forth on 480 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 1: it throughout the off season, but I just think that 481 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,399 Speaker 1: sense of urgency is there. I think they have the 482 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: offensive line where they're going to be able to impose 483 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: their will against basically everything that they face, maybe with 484 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: the exception of a team like Auburn, and I'm including 485 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 1: Alabama in that group. I think that that Auburn defensive 486 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 1: line is just as good as it gets in the country. 487 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 1: But Georgia's up front is just gonna be able to 488 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 1: bully people. And I think that once they figure out 489 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: what those receiving options are, I mean there's talent there. 490 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: They got a couple of five star guys, George Pickens, uh, 491 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: they got another one to Meetrice Robertson, who's a former 492 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 1: Cal transfer who's expected to do some big things this year. 493 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 1: Once they figure out what those weapons are, I think 494 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 1: that this team is really going to take off. And 495 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: you know, I've been high on Jake's brom since the 496 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 1: first start that he made against Notre Dame two years ago, 497 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 1: and I think that he is the type of guy 498 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 1: that you won't leading your team. DeAndre Swift in the 499 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 1: backfield is just uh just devastating. I mean that's the 500 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,400 Speaker 1: one word that I would use to describe him. And 501 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 1: I think he will be in the highs and trophy conversation. 502 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, I am high on Georgean and that's to 503 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 1: say I'm not high in Vama. I think your Avenge 504 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 1: tour will go through the SEC. I think it will 505 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 1: be another dominant year in the conference. But I think 506 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 1: that George is just gonna finally have that thing to 507 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 1: get over the hump. And I know people have said 508 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 1: that before, but you know, I was there at the 509 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: SEC championship last year and I just saw how close 510 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: that game really was and and how just Georgia had 511 00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: him right where they wanted him. I mean, they really did, 512 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: and then Joe Hurts came in and saved the day. 513 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm willing to put my chips on the 514 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 1: dogs this year. I like the odds that they're getting 515 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,479 Speaker 1: as as compared to you know, Alabama Clumpston, which are 516 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 1: the overwhelming favorites obviously to win a national championship this year. 517 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 1: All right, So but you didn't really answer the question, 518 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: because so then the answer is you would take you 519 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 1: I guess you would take Alabama not making the playoffs 520 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 1: because you wouldn't bet Georgia not winning the East. Well, 521 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: I would bet Georgia winning the East. I Abama and 522 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: making the playoffs as a four seed. So getting really 523 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 1: really close, and then I have Yeah, I don't. I 524 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 1: don't think Georgie is gonna lose the game in the division. 525 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: I think they they're only regular seas and longest would 526 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 1: be to Auburn, and then I would have Bama still 527 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 1: getting into the playoffs even though they would lose to 528 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: Georgia at twelve and oh, I think they would still 529 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: get the four seed, and then they'd be able to 530 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: beat out you know, like maybe they'd be able to 531 00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: beat out like a Washington or an Oklahoma, a team 532 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 1: that could win a conference championship with one off and 533 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: still not making it all right. So that answers my 534 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 1: second question, which is Alabama to go over eleven wins 535 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: is minus one sixty? Um? Stucky, who is our college 536 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 1: football genius? You should everyone should go download the Action 537 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: Network Colleges podcast. Um, because Stucky has been predicting all 538 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 1: preseason that Alabama will lose at least one if not 539 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 1: to the following world games Texas A and M at 540 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: Mississippi State or at Auburn. So you clearly have them 541 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: winning twelve games, you have them getting into the playoffs. 542 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: Why do you feel that way? Why do you think 543 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 1: that they won't succumb on the road to one of 544 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: those three teams. Yeah, I just think that it's uh, 545 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: it's the Vammer evengu Tour. I mean, I've seen the 546 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: way that Nick Sabans teams respond to losing in the 547 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 1: playoff or losing a bowl game. When Nick Sabans teams 548 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: have come back after losing a bold game, he has 549 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: won a national championship in four of those five years. 550 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 1: And I realized that, I mean, not having Bama to 551 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 1: win the national championship, Like, well, why don't you? But um, I, 552 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 1: like I said, I just think Georgie is going to 553 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 1: have that that advantage, and I think that Bama is 554 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 1: ultimately gonna lose in the playoffs to Clemson. But you know, 555 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: I don't think that Bama is gonna lose one of 556 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 1: those road games. I think last year watching what they 557 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 1: were able to do, and you know, let's let we 558 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: talk about how easy the schedule was for BAMMA last year. 559 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 1: At the same time, though, like let's not forget that 560 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 1: they went into l s U in won that game 561 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: twenty nine and nothing. I mean that that atmosphere was hustle, 562 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: the top three LSU team and Bama went in there 563 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 1: and just smacked him, just smacked him back to reality. 564 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 1: I think that an anime is an interesting matchup. I 565 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 1: almost wanted to pull the trigger on that because I 566 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,240 Speaker 1: think Calaman really is able to play to his competition. 567 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 1: We saw that last year with what he did against 568 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 1: that really good Clempson defensive line. I think he's actually 569 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: played pretty well against BAMA the last couple of years, 570 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 1: and I don't think he's going to be intimidated by that. 571 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 1: I think A and M has an interesting matchup in 572 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 1: the trenches, but I still have Bamma winning that game. 573 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 1: I still have them eating a really solid Mississippi State 574 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: team this year as well. I understand that that game 575 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: was really close a couple of years ago, alright, one 576 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 1: of Jalen Hurts's best performances that people kind of forget about. 577 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: He staged to come back there at in Starkville to 578 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 1: be able to pull off that victory back in And Yeah, 579 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 1: I think that they go into Jordan Hair this year 580 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: and I think they beat Auburn. I think that to 581 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: stretches that defense in a way that it is not 582 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 1: necessarily going to be prepared to defend. And I think 583 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: that that Bama completes another twelve and oh regular season. 584 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: Although you know those games, I wouldn't It wouldn't absolutely 585 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 1: stun me if one of those teams won't. But I'm 586 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: just not predicting at this point. How much inflated? How 587 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: inflated do you think Alabama is as a favorite in 588 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 1: every single game? How much do you think bookmakers account 589 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 1: for the public perception that Alabama, no matter where they're playing, uh, 590 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 1: is going to be the team that gets all the money? Well, 591 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I think they accounted forward a lot, and 592 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: I think they actually accounted for a little bit, maybe 593 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: a little bit too much in this this first game, 594 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: uh that you know, this line started at what thirty 595 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 1: and a half or thirty and now it's at like 596 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: thirty four and a half against Duke, And you know 597 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 1: I'll be there on Saturday. And I actually just finished 598 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 1: writing a column basically saying like, hey, you know, as 599 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,200 Speaker 1: much as I think Bama is going to dominate the opener, 600 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,120 Speaker 1: I know that saban has won twelve openers by an 601 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 1: average of twenty eight point eight points, and they've just 602 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: blown the water out of out of so many Power 603 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: five teams to start the season. I could see a 604 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,719 Speaker 1: slower start for for Bama, and I it's kind of 605 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 1: holding me back from saying, yeah, I'm just gonna give thirty, 606 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 1: you know, thirty four and a half points. I could 607 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 1: see a slower start just because I think Sarkesian trying 608 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 1: to figure out what those you know, what the the 609 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 1: offensive pieces are going to work like this year. I 610 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 1: think that's gonna be a little bit of a of 611 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,920 Speaker 1: a tougher battle than some people are expecting, and I 612 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: think there could potentially be a slow start. But I 613 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 1: answer your question, I do think that Vegas usually accounts 614 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,440 Speaker 1: for that. I think that you know, Bama usually is 615 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 1: going to get the better strait of the doubt when 616 00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 1: it comes to you know, anytime they face a group 617 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: of five five or an FCS team, And I mean 618 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: it is always really interesting now because the spread has 619 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: gotten to the point where, you know, if we're talking 620 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: about eight points whatever, it is like that that is 621 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 1: actually something worth watching and these games could be back 622 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 1: and forth in that department. But especially with the year 623 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: that Alabama had last year, where I mean they just 624 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 1: they blew teams out of the water, and that that 625 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: high flying offense just kind of takes us to a 626 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 1: new level. I think Vegas is absolutely going to account 627 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 1: for that, and the fact that they have household names, 628 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,640 Speaker 1: you know, at the skill positions definitely helps them. Well. 629 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 1: Speaking of which, so who are the five games? Which 630 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:33,959 Speaker 1: are the five games? Right now? When you're looking at 631 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:38,080 Speaker 1: this from a point spread perspective, where you're like, I 632 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: know as much about college football as anybody, this one 633 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 1: doesn't make sense to me. Oh that's a good question. 634 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 1: So are we just talking week one? Are we talking 635 00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 1: week one this year? Just week week one? Okay? So 636 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 1: I know this is unpopular, but I think Memphis covers 637 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 1: that that six points spread against Old Miss. I think Memphis, 638 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,120 Speaker 1: Memphis is my pick this year to go to the 639 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 1: New Year six as a group of five team. And 640 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: I think that given how inexperienced Oldnesses, I mean, it's 641 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 1: the least experienced team in terms of percentage of returning 642 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: production of any team in the country on the offensive side, 643 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,400 Speaker 1: and I think that Memphis is able to to score 644 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,839 Speaker 1: a whole lot of points against an olemous defense has 645 00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 1: been really bad the last couple of years, and I 646 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 1: think that that's six points to me. I'll take Memphis 647 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 1: at home to to cover that even though they are 648 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,680 Speaker 1: a favorite, the rare group of five favorite over an 649 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: SEC team, and then I don't know, I think you 650 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: could go you could look at a lot of different places. 651 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,239 Speaker 1: I think I think that Auburn is ultimately going to 652 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 1: cover against Oregon, and I know that that line has 653 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 1: kind of gone back and forth a little bit, and 654 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:43,120 Speaker 1: there's concern about Refreshman starting in quarterback for Auburn. But 655 00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,080 Speaker 1: I just go back to I think Auburn is gonna 656 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 1: be so much better in the trenches than they were 657 00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,760 Speaker 1: last year. And while Oregon might have the best offensive 658 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 1: line in the country, at least one of them, I 659 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 1: think that the Auburn defensive line is going to be 660 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,799 Speaker 1: able to put some pressure on Justin Herbert, and I 661 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,799 Speaker 1: think that they'll be able to cover even if that 662 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 1: spread was four. I think at this point I would 663 00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 1: probably go with Auburn. I just have really really liked 664 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 1: the offseason that Gus mils On has hat I think 665 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,319 Speaker 1: it's a play caller. I think he's gonna be able 666 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,000 Speaker 1: to do some good things offensively. So yeah, I mean, 667 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: i'd probably look at at those games, and then you know, 668 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 1: if if we're looking around, um, you know, I don't 669 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,560 Speaker 1: think L s u Is is a team that I'd 670 00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,919 Speaker 1: want to bet on Week one, just because I think 671 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: that with that game against Texas in Week two, they're 672 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 1: facing a triple option team. L s u Is putting 673 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,239 Speaker 1: in a new RPO offense. It's gonna be in Week one. 674 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,640 Speaker 1: Maybe they don't want to show all the secrets to it. 675 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,279 Speaker 1: Covering twenty seven and a half point it seems like 676 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 1: a lot. And that's coming from me as somebody who's 677 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,080 Speaker 1: very high ELSU offense. This year, I think there'll be 678 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,600 Speaker 1: a top twenty offense. I love Joe Burrow, but I 679 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 1: think covering twenty seven and a half it seems like 680 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 1: a bit much against the Georgia's southern team that won 681 00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,879 Speaker 1: ten games last year. So um, I do think that 682 00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,120 Speaker 1: that would be a place that I'd look and then yeah, 683 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 1: look like I I'm I do like Georgia a lot, 684 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be seeing their praises a ton this year. 685 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 1: One they're giving twenty one at Vandy. I just throw 686 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 1: out the stat on Twitter. Vivid Seats report that Georgia 687 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,920 Speaker 1: fans are expected to account for six of the crowd 688 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 1: at Vanderbilt on Saturday. That's going to be such a 689 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,239 Speaker 1: such a pro Georgia crowd, and I think twenty one 690 00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,920 Speaker 1: on the road, I think Georgia covers that relatively easily. 691 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 1: And even though you know, I like Dandy skill players, 692 00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: they have a big three and Kalish Lipscomb, Keyshawn Vaughn 693 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: and Jared Pinkney that I think we're going to be 694 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 1: really good. But I just think that Georgia dominates that 695 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: defensive line and I really think that they're able to 696 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 1: put up a big score in that one. So those 697 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,960 Speaker 1: are probably the places that i'd start at, all right, 698 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,240 Speaker 1: So the big that's that's really good stuff. The biggest 699 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 1: number UH this weekend amongst the top, it looks like 700 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,160 Speaker 1: it's Penn State as a thirty nine and a half 701 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 1: point favorite hosting Idaho. Next up I think is UH Clemson. 702 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,880 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Action Network gap right now is 703 00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:00,799 Speaker 1: a thirty seven point favorite over jorgegi Tech that has 704 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 1: a brand new coach and just trying to figure out 705 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 1: how to no longer be you know, in an option 706 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 1: forward offense. If you had to bet one of those games, 707 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 1: Penn State thirty nine and a half points over Idaho. 708 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,279 Speaker 1: Clemson thirty seven points over Georgia Tech. Which one do 709 00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 1: you take to bet? You have to bet, I'm sorry, 710 00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 1: you have to bet on the favorite. To bet on 711 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,680 Speaker 1: the favorite. I'm not betting on Penn State right now 712 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,160 Speaker 1: to cover. I'm not that's that's way too, way too 713 00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,360 Speaker 1: high spread. I'd much rather take a team like Clemson, 714 00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,319 Speaker 1: and that's you know, a little bit more so. Penn 715 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 1: State is just such a mystery. Offensively, I feel like people, 716 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 1: I wouldn't have Penn State in my top twenty five 717 00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 1: third season. I think they're complete mystery. Offensively, I think 718 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 1: that what they returned at the quarterback position with Sean Clifford, 719 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:47,359 Speaker 1: they feel really good about that. But you return your 720 00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,760 Speaker 1: most your you lose your most prolific pastor and program history. 721 00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,080 Speaker 1: I think trace McSorley is was so valuable. I mean, 722 00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: he's been the quarterback for every meaningful game that they've 723 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: played in the last five years. And I just think 724 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,120 Speaker 1: that of the loss that he'll have on that program 725 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,040 Speaker 1: will be significant. Um And I would not trust Penn 726 00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,120 Speaker 1: State to cover thirty nine and a half point spread, 727 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 1: even though it is Idaho, and even though they do 728 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,480 Speaker 1: have talent on the on the defense, of course, and 729 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: I like some of their skill players. But yeah, that 730 00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,879 Speaker 1: that just seems a bit lofty to me. Um, yeah, 731 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:17,560 Speaker 1: I would still take clumps of the cover. I think 732 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,439 Speaker 1: the Clemson should be able to impose their will really 733 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,960 Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage all year. I don't know 734 00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 1: who in the world is going to test them. And 735 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 1: even though that they have, you know, all those holes 736 00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,840 Speaker 1: on the defensive line or you know, losing three guys 737 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,360 Speaker 1: like that who we didn't expect to you know, to 738 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 1: be there even last year, I think that that that's 739 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,359 Speaker 1: that's something that will you know, come into play later 740 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 1: in the season. But for now, Yeah, give me Clemson. 741 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,240 Speaker 1: Give me Trevor Lawrence to be able to cover pretty 742 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,880 Speaker 1: much any spread. I didn't Travisy TM is the best 743 00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,759 Speaker 1: running back in the country. I love Justin Ross as well, 744 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,400 Speaker 1: the Alabama native who of course torched Alabama National championship 745 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,600 Speaker 1: last year. So yeah, I would have a lot of 746 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 1: confidence in Clemson covering. They'll be able to to pour 747 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,680 Speaker 1: it on in a hurry. All right, So that's that's 748 00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,440 Speaker 1: also great. My last question for you, if you have 749 00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: to make a choice right now other than Oklahoma, Clemson, Alabama, 750 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:14,399 Speaker 1: or Michigan to make the playoff. Where do you think 751 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:19,600 Speaker 1: the best value is in terms of odds? Yeah, I'll 752 00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,719 Speaker 1: stick with Georgia. Like that's that. Didn't I say, didn't 753 00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 1: I say Georgia? Did I not include Georgia? Who did 754 00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,560 Speaker 1: I say George I said, did I? I said Georgia Alabama? No, 755 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:36,080 Speaker 1: I said, Clemson take Michigan and out put Georgia in Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma. 756 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:42,000 Speaker 1: That I'd probably go in Michigan. Oh my god, I'd 757 00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,640 Speaker 1: probably go in Michigan, just because you know, and I 758 00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:47,400 Speaker 1: know I've said it with Georgia. I think that this 759 00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,359 Speaker 1: is this is just if iin onally set up really 760 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,279 Speaker 1: well for for Michigan to do this. And I'm not 761 00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,759 Speaker 1: just saying that as like a blind apologist. I don't 762 00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,759 Speaker 1: say this every year about Michigan. I really don't. Last year, 763 00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,360 Speaker 1: I thought Wisconsin was going to come out of the 764 00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,360 Speaker 1: big town. I thought Wisconsin was going to go the playoff. 765 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,800 Speaker 1: But I just think it's finally set up for Michigan. 766 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,040 Speaker 1: I think it's finally clicked with hardball. I love the 767 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:09,000 Speaker 1: fact that he turned the entire offense over to Josh Gaddis. 768 00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,280 Speaker 1: That's one of the more underrated storylines this offseason. Josh Gaddis, 769 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,400 Speaker 1: who of course spent last year as the co offensive 770 00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,160 Speaker 1: coordinator slash wide receivers coach at Alabama, previously was a 771 00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:21,719 Speaker 1: major part of rebuilding Penn State's offense along with Joe 772 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,560 Speaker 1: moorehead and I just think that with Josh Gaddis in 773 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,279 Speaker 1: controls as the play caller, they're gonna run a more 774 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,040 Speaker 1: modern offense, which they have needed to do for some 775 00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,720 Speaker 1: time now. I think that they're finally going to get through. 776 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,360 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, predicting Ohio State is the 777 00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,160 Speaker 1: easy thing to do, probably at this point. But at 778 00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,439 Speaker 1: the same time, I have reservations about a first time 779 00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,160 Speaker 1: head coach and a first time starter at quarterback, and 780 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:43,960 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, it's it's I think it's 781 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:45,759 Speaker 1: been like what I think, it's been twenty one years 782 00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 1: since that combination, a first time head coach and the 783 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 1: first time starting quarterback and started in the top five. 784 00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,160 Speaker 1: I think that Michigan finally gets it done this year. 785 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,960 Speaker 1: I think they've learned a lot from what they went 786 00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:56,520 Speaker 1: through at the end of last season. It was a 787 00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,239 Speaker 1: very humbling experience for them after that great long winning 788 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,160 Speaker 1: Street last year, and I think the message finally gets through. 789 00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,359 Speaker 1: I think Don Brown adjust a little bit, maybe doesn't 790 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,000 Speaker 1: play as much man in those key games when you 791 00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:09,560 Speaker 1: know they're facing these up temple offenses. And I think 792 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,480 Speaker 1: that Michigan finally gets it done and gets a Big 793 00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,600 Speaker 1: Ten championship and obviously a victory against Ohio State and 794 00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 1: gets to the playoffs this year. All right, cgo, cgo 795 00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,960 Speaker 1: Garret at C j oh Gara on Twitter. You have 796 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:28,400 Speaker 1: proven once again why people from Chicago Land and alumnus 797 00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:32,319 Speaker 1: of Indiana Universities Journalism School can really do it all. 798 00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,000 Speaker 1: Because look what you did. You moved, you moved down 799 00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,360 Speaker 1: South and now you're a senior columnist for Saturday in 800 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,000 Speaker 1: South and you're co hosting the Saturday Down South podcast. 801 00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,680 Speaker 1: Great stuff. I really appreciate the insight, I appreciate the information. 802 00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:49,080 Speaker 1: I appreciate you giving me bold takes in your picks 803 00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 1: for Week one of college football. Absolutely appreciate. Looking forward 804 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,440 Speaker 1: to doing again soon hopefully. All right, brother, take care, 805 00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,319 Speaker 1: all right, you too. All right, this has been the 806 00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,400 Speaker 1: favorites from the Action Network. I want to thank my 807 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:04,920 Speaker 1: guests as always, Bob Scucci from Boyd Gaming Bookmaker to 808 00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,719 Speaker 1: the world for coming on his podcast. He's on with 809 00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,680 Speaker 1: me every week talking lines and market moves from the 810 00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:14,560 Speaker 1: perspective of Las Vegas and Connor ro Gera from Saturday 811 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,960 Speaker 1: down South dot com hosted the Saturday Down South podcast. 812 00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,360 Speaker 1: Follow him at c J O'Gara. He had great stuff. 813 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:25,360 Speaker 1: Listen to the podcast, Apple, podcast, Radio dot com, Slash, 814 00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:29,000 Speaker 1: the Action Network, anywhere you get your podcasts, rate review, 815 00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,560 Speaker 1: subscribe until next week. I love you