1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg eleventh Rio to Washington, 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve Hounds to San Francisco, 3 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the Country Series Channel one nine and around 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aben Bloomberg dot Com. 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good Morning eight thirty on Wall 6 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: Street Michael McKee along with Tom Keener. Economic Indicators brought 7 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: change the conversation, talk with a broker dealer r I 9 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 1: A that's ready to listen, call for six two three 10 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: eight or visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. They 11 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: call him Mr. Good News. Here's Vine Dell. Jud I 12 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: said the first word desk with our numbers. Okay, Michael, 13 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: Let's start with the Consumer Price Index. It's up up 14 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: point four the most since sixteen. This is an April number. 15 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: Good news because it suggests, uh the economy could finally 16 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: be picking up a little bit of steam. Of course, 17 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: we saw higher energy prices, so that could figure into 18 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: the mix as well. Housing starts another number pointing to 19 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: a good news. Housing starts up six point six percent 20 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: and able to one point one seven two million. Building 21 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: permits also higher, So let's start from the top. Cp 22 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: I the biggest month over month increase since and April 23 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: up point four percent, more than forecast. Core excluding food 24 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 1: and energy at point two percent. Building permits, housing starts 25 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,639 Speaker 1: both up now at ninth fifteen Wall Street time figure 26 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve on industrial production. That number also 27 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: forecast to be an increase at the Bloombark First word, guest, 28 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: I'm Pinny del Let's go back to New York. Finny, 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: thank you so much. There's been a number of economists 30 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: on this program who've been gloomy about the prospects for 31 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: the economy. Mark's Andy is not one of them. He's 32 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: with Moody's Analytics chief economists there, and Mark is at 33 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: least um classy enough not to be running around going 34 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: told you so, told us so. Well, it's a zany number, 35 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: or in the two year yield is in a zandy direction. 36 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: It's a very zandy morning. Well, good morning to Mark Sandy. 37 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: Morn't any good morning. I like the sound of all that. 38 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: This is, this is what you and UH and a 39 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 1: few others have said might be happening. Yeah, the economy 40 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: feels fine today. I mean we've gotten the good jobs numbers, 41 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the the soft top line number, notwithstanding retail 42 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: sales for very good and these housing numbers are are 43 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: good as well, So the economy feels fine to me. 44 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: The inflation number is obviously the one that's gonna catch 45 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: wall streets attention this morning. Uh, how much do you 46 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: make of that? Because the core rate UH is unchanged, 47 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: the headline rate is obviously going to be influenced by 48 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: energy prices. Yeah, well, the core is U between two 49 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: and two and a half percent year every year, you know, 50 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: just for context. The FETCH target for core CPI s, 51 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: although they don't state it explicitly, is uh implicitly about 52 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: two and a half percent. So we're just a bit 53 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: south of where the Fed would like it to be. UM. 54 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: But with the economy coming into full employment and wage 55 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: growth picking up strong rank growth because of the tight 56 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 1: housing market, and you know, still solid growth in medical 57 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: care costs, I think we'll be back close to that 58 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: target by certainly by this time next year. Because there's 59 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: a you know, different ways of looking in inflation. Janet 60 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: Yellen has suggested the rising inflation we had been seeing 61 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,839 Speaker 1: in the core rate was temporary. She looks at things 62 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: like the Atlanta Fed Sticky Price Index that shows that 63 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: the things they consider sticky and price hadn't moved all 64 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: that much and suggest there wasn't a broad based increase 65 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: in inflation. Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, I 66 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: don't I think it's broad based yet. But all the 67 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: all these signs are and all the trend lines indicate 68 00:03:55,240 --> 00:04:00,040 Speaker 1: that inflation is more likely to accelerate than slow and 69 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: and I do think it. You know, we will be 70 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: back to target, probably sooner than than I think the condensus, 71 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: thanks to maybe even she thinks, Mike, Atlanta GDP now 72 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: two percent, remember the headlines being made some one and 73 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: then with a reset one to three, four or five, six, 74 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: seven eight resets up to two percent. Mark, I want 75 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: to talk to you about your academics and pen of course, 76 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: the legend of Laurence Klein. He did a lot of 77 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: work on a inertial force and momentum. We're using the 78 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: phrase now overshoot, which comes from Dornbush up at M 79 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 1: I T. But really Mr Klein, Professor Klein was the 80 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: one who codified it with an econometrics. Is there such 81 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: a thing as momentum within the economic growth. Yeah. He 82 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: even a great man, Larry Klein. Uh, you know, wonderful 83 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: man on every level. Uh. Yeah, I think there's something 84 00:04:54,440 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: to that. Uh you know, some things like inflation do have. Uh. 85 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: Momentum isn't the greatest word. In fact, I don't think 86 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: he even liked that word momentum, but it certainly has 87 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 1: uh inertial aspects to its kind of feeds on itself. 88 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 1: Of course, in terms of inflation. You know, if it 89 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: gets into the two wages and wages accelerate, then that 90 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: pushes up prices. You know that that's the infamous wage 91 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: price spiral. Well we see that, do you presume with it? 92 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: But this is critical, folks, because Zandy has been at 93 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: Pinata recently for his optimism. We're beginning to see a 94 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: Zany world doesn't fold into a Walter Heller wage price spiral. No, 95 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: I but it overstates the case. Uh you know, I 96 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 1: think there's a case. Uh you know, I do think 97 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: inflation is going to pick up, and and I think 98 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 1: to some degree the firm reserve wouldn't be unhappy with that. 99 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: If if inflation picked up and was abuff target for 100 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: a while just as long as inflation expectations didn't come 101 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: untothered but a wage pricepiral. No, I don't see that. 102 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: I mean lots have changed since Larry Klein worked on 103 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: these issues back you know, twenty thirty years ago. Back 104 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 1: then had lots of cost of living adjustments and wage 105 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 1: contracts that kind of think they're no longer there inflation 106 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 1: expectations or nailed down. They weren't back years ago because 107 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: policemakers really didn't understand the roles of inflation expectations at 108 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 1: that point in time. So it's a very different world. 109 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: So no, but you know, I think everyone should uh. 110 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: I think that the odds are very high that inflation 111 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 1: is going to be a buff target to eighteen twenty 112 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: four months from now. Let's come back and talking about 113 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: the outlook for the economy with with Mark Mike, we 114 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: should mention. I mean we had a two basis point 115 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: moving the two year, which is not in substantial point 116 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: eight one on the two years. So it was a 117 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: market moving report, no, no question about that. Yeah, I 118 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: don't want to oversell it, but nonetheless there is I 119 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: would really go to the asymmetrical idea of gloom. It's 120 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: very comfortable to talk about gloom and yet a huge 121 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: turnaround in the Atlanta GDP even getting out over the 122 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 1: optimism of the middle of February two. You gotta believe 123 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: that statistics may be my great a bit higher here 124 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: as well. Futures of negative four down, futures down, futures 125 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: negative thirty on the Bloomberg. This hour of surveillance brought 126 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: to you by Westchester subar Up is at Westchester subar 127 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: ut dot com. Here's Blake a bar within his headline, 128 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: Mike Tom, thank you very much. It has been a 129 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: violent day in Baghdad, Iraqi, officials saying at least thirty 130 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: six people are dead after a wave of car bombing 131 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: struck outdoor markets today. No one has claimed responsibility, but 132 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: experts say it has the look of the Islamic State. 133 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: The U State Department has issued a blunt travel ban 134 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: aimed at North Korea. State Department spokesman John Kirby is 135 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: urging Americans to stop going to North Korea. Um in 136 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: some ways in terms of laying out what we've you know, 137 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: the kinds of and it's not an exhaustive list, by 138 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: the way, but it is a list of examples of 139 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: activities for which we have seen UH foreigners be given 140 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: unduly harsh sentences. So yes, it was a little bit 141 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: more specific and a little bit more blunt in some ways. 142 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: Kirby says it is possible to get into trouble, including 143 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: showing disrespect to the country's current and former leaders, taking 144 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: unauthorized photos, and shopping at store is not designated to foreigners. 145 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: President Obama's request for money to combat the Zeke virus 146 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: is about to get a response from the Senate. It 147 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 1: likely won't pass the request at one point nine billion 148 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: dollar measure. The procedural vote is scheduled today on three 149 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: competing plans by partisan one point one billion dollar bill 150 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: is seen as having the best chance. Global News twenty 151 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,239 Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our twenty four d journalists. 152 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: I'm Michael, bar Blank Tom, Thank you, Michael. Time now 153 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: for the land Rover Precipit Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with 154 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: Rob Bushka and good Morning Mike and Tom. The Yankees 155 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 1: struggles continue on the road as Chad Green lasted only 156 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: four innings, allowing six runs in a twelve two route 157 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: by Arizona. Jake Lamb had a three ron homer for 158 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: the d Backs, who scored in all but two innings. 159 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: Yankee should get some help, though both c C. Sabathia 160 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: and Alex Rodriguez expected back by the weekend. Series continues tonight. 161 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: The Mets were idle, but tonight they host the National's 162 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: Noah Synderguard entertains Max Scherzer. NBA Western Conference Finals Game 163 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: one in Oakland goes to the thunder one oh eight 164 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 1: one oh two. The duo of Kevin Durant and Russell 165 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: Westbrook combined for fifty three, outlasting Clay Thompson and Steph Curry, 166 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: who had a combined fifty one. The big difference was 167 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, when the thunder Titan defensively holding Golden 168 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: State to just fourteen points, the second time this year 169 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: the Warriors have lost in home. The Brooklyn Nets introduced 170 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: their new coach, Kenny Atkinson to the New York media 171 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: on Monday. I really felt like shown with someone I 172 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: could form a partnership with, someone I could collaborate with, 173 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: someone I could trust, and um that really excited me 174 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: and it really made me aggressive in pursuing this job. 175 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 1: I said, this is a guy love to work with 176 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: on a daily basis. Beyond in the trenches with so 177 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: I'm excited. Atkinson is referring to the hands on approach 178 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: of GM Shawn Marks and even Nets owner Michael Brokov 179 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: was in on the interview process. The Nicks interviewed former 180 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: Sons coach Jeff hornessec for their vacancy. On Monday last week, 181 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: they met with Pacers head coach Frank Vogel and on 182 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: the ice, Pittsburgh edge Tampa Bay three to two in 183 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: overtime to even that series up at one as it 184 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 1: shifts to Florida. And that is your NBC Bloomberg Sports Update, 185 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: Mike and Tom. Mike the Mets tonight. That's a real 186 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: baseball game. BET's Nationals. These are two frontline pictures. Yeah, 187 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: the first meeting of the year. Syndergard has been the 188 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: best picture for you and me. Wrote for Delta Gold 189 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: three dollars a ticket. Yeah, thank you. I can see 190 00:10:53,400 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: Delta Gold. Lobster rolls. Lobster rolls the Mets tonight. The 191 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: Sports report was brought to you by land Rover Parcipitate. 192 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: He springs sales event is happening now. Visit land Rover 193 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: Partcipi dot com. Land Rover Above and Beyond Global business 194 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, 195 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio. This 196 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Camra in Moscow. 197 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by Pershing's Inside Conference and 198 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: must have tend for advisers. June seventh through the ninth 199 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: in Orlando, Florida. Register at Inside dot com. That's I N, 200 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,079 Speaker 1: S I T dot com. The cost of living in 201 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 1: the US climbing in April by the most in by 202 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: climbing in April, consumer prices increased four tenths percent. That 203 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: was the biggest gain since February, and it followed a 204 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: one tenth percent advance in March and a climbed by 205 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: the most in three years. New home construction rose in April. 206 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,959 Speaker 1: Residential starts increased six point six percent to a one 207 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: point one seven million annualized rate from one point one 208 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: million in March. Permits of proxy for future construction also climbed, 209 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: and futures this morning are lower, with SNP even A 210 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: futures down five points, DOWIE many futures down forty one, 211 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: and NASDACU many futures down six. That acts in Germany's 212 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 1: down half per cent. The ten year Treasury little change 213 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: yield one point seven five per cent. NIMEX scrude oil 214 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: up three ten percent or thirteen cents to forty eighty 215 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: five a barrel Comex gold is up a tenth of 216 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: upper center a dollar forty to twelve seventy five sixty 217 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: announced the euro another thirteen thirteen again one oh nine 218 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: point three zero. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and 219 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: Mike Karen, thank you so much. It is on Wall Street. 220 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: The following is from Bloomberg View opinions in commentary from 221 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg columnists. I'm Justin Fox, a columnist for Bloomberg View. 222 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: The city of Houston doesn't have zoning. It does have 223 00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: some land use rules that look a little like zone, 224 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: but they're not all that strict. If you want to 225 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:04,959 Speaker 1: put up a big new building on commercial property or 226 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: town houses on a single family plot, you can generally 227 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 1: count on getting permission. For decades, Houston's hands off approach 228 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: was caused for head scratching and even derision outside the city. Lately, though, 229 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:20,359 Speaker 1: zoning has come under fire for restricting economic growth, worsening 230 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: income segregation, and even causing housing crises. So Houston's approach 231 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: is looking smarter. For one thing, Houstonians seem to understand 232 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 1: a basic economic truth that people in other cities struggle with, 233 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: that allowing more housing to be built makes housing more affordable. 234 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 1: And yes, housing remains pretty affordable in Houston. The median 235 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: price of an existing single family home there is two 236 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: hundred and eight thousand dollars. It's affordable mainly because the 237 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: area has been able to keep sprawling outward, building new 238 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 1: subdivisions on vacant land. But lately demand has been rising 239 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: for housing in walkable, close in neighborhoods, and Houston has 240 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 1: been doing a pretty good job of providing that. Developers 241 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: there have been putting up apartment buildings and a much 242 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: master pace than in San Francisco or Los Angeles. I'm 243 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: Justin Fox, a columnist for Bloomberg View. For more Bloomberg 244 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: opinion and commentary, please go to Bloomberg View dot com 245 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,079 Speaker 1: or view go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been 246 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg View and Bloomberg View commentaries can be heard hourly weekdays. 247 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio Michael with Mark Sandy. Yeah, we're talking 248 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: with Marks Andy from Moody's about the economic data, and 249 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: of course, if you talk about the economic data, you 250 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 1: gotta be talking about the central bank and its reaction 251 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: function to that data. We're seeing it reflected in the 252 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 1: equity markets this morning, with futures taking a bit of 253 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: a dive after the numbers came out, but we're not 254 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: seeing a whole lot reflected in the boom market, essentially 255 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: unchanged mark. It doesn't matter what the numbers say, it 256 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: doesn't matter what people from the Fed say. The market 257 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: just doesn't believe the Fed is going to raise interest 258 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: rates anytime soon. Right now, according to the FED funds 259 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: futures anytime before December. Yeah. Bit perplexing. I'm you know, 260 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: I the economists uh, and I'm one of those have 261 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: a somewhat different perspective on things, so we'll see who's right. Um, 262 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm a bit perplexed by how same when 263 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: the market seems to be about about the Fed. Uh. 264 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: You know, there's some question about how we're measuring expectations 265 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: in futures markets, just because we're kind of a very 266 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: odd environment, so we might not be teasing out exactly 267 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: what markets think. But but regardless of the measurement issues, 268 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: it does feel feel weird? Yeah, do you think, Well, 269 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: here's a two part question. Do you think the Fed 270 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: can talk the market up assuming that the numbers keep 271 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: coming in the way they have before the June meeting? 272 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: And if they don't, does that keep them from doing anything? Yeah, 273 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: there's a lot of evidence that the policy makers don't 274 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: like changing policy without preparing markets. So the fact that 275 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: they haven't been preparing markets for a rate hike suggests 276 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 1: that there will not be one in June. But they 277 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: can change that pretty fast. I mean, one speech by 278 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: Jenny Allen or she's intimating that they're going to begin 279 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: raising rates again. I think that would change things pretty quickly. 280 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: So I think they can. It's just that they haven't though. 281 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: How do you respond away from models to the behavioral construct, 282 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: almost an Austrian construct that they need to raise rates. 283 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: So they got wiggle room if they get an exogenous shock, 284 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: They got to get the rate up, they got to 285 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: get it over one granted, new terminal value. I get 286 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: all the debates that are out there, but they got 287 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: to have almost a moral responsibility to get rates normal. 288 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: So if there's something none of us can see coming, 289 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: they've got room to come back down. Yeah, you know, 290 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: toime I I don't buy into that argument, or it 291 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: doesn't feel right to me. I mean, you know, at 292 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: the end of the day, they need to get the 293 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: economy to full employment, that they need to get inflation 294 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 1: to target, and they got to do it an environment 295 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: where financial market conditions are relatively stable. You know. Trying 296 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 1: to get ahead of all of that, I think would 297 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: be a mistake and to be just be counterproductive, make 298 00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: it more less likely that they'll get the kind of 299 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: increase in rates that everybody wants to see. So I 300 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: just don't think that's the right strategy. You know, you 301 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: could take my My perspective on this is that you know, 302 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: there's a balance of risks, and the risks are taking 303 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: now is that the longer they wait, the greater the 304 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: odds are they gonna have an overheating economy down the 305 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 1: road and we get into it just a very classic 306 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 1: kind of business cycle. And that's that to me, is 307 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: a greater risk for not moving now. Not that they 308 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 1: need to get some work. Well, there's a lot of 309 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: arguments that we are not in a classic business cycle, 310 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: that we're in a new normal. We're going to see 311 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 1: inflation if it rises rise very slowly, the fact has 312 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: time to react. How comfortable are you with that view? 313 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 1: I don't. You know, it's a different cycle, no doubt, 314 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: And I think goes to the fact that it was 315 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 1: a distant, an incredibly difficult recession and financial crisis we suffered. 316 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: So it's just taking time to recover. But I don't 317 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: think the business cycle dynamics that we've seen since World 318 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: War Two change. I think they're the same and they're 319 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: gonna start to manifest themselves. So, you know, I don't 320 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: I don't think anything's new normal new about that. It's 321 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: just taking longer because of what we went through. Is 322 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: there a new globalization that is a backdrop to this 323 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: with our new digital You know, you read any historic 324 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: history book on globalization and they talk about logistics and transportations. 325 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: The new logistics is digital. That's got a change the calculus, 326 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,199 Speaker 1: doesn't it? Yeah, it does, And it goes to a 327 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,719 Speaker 1: broader point about how we're how we measure things. Uh, 328 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 1: you know, I think g d P is understated because 329 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,679 Speaker 1: there is a lot of economic activity that's out there 330 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: someone which you've you've just mentioned that it's just incredibly 331 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 1: definitely difficult to measure and we're definitely not measuring it, 332 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: and that measurement issue is becoming bigger and bigger and bigger. 333 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: So you know, my senses, I can't prove it. You know, 334 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 1: there's got a lot more work that needs to be 335 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: done here, but my sense is that there's a lot 336 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 1: more output GDP out there than than than more measuring 337 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: right now. And the economy. Actually, I think the best 338 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: measure of how the economy is performing, you know, gives 339 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: us the best sense of what's going on, is just jobs, 340 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: because we can measure jobs. How about housing housing numbers 341 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: coming very strong? Is that just a kind of weather 342 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: related quirk for the month or is it picking up? Uh? Well, 343 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: I think you just take a step back and look. Unfortunately, 344 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: housing starre summers have been pretty punk. You know, they've 345 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: been kind of basically moving flat for the last nine 346 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: twelve months. Uh, certainly off bottom. But you know, no nowhere, nowhere, 347 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: nowhere close to where they need to be, so I 348 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: expect them to pick up. I think there's been just 349 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 1: a lot of supply side constraints. You know, you've got 350 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 1: a lot of the home building industry is very interesting, 351 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: and you know a lot of homes are built by 352 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: very small builders. They require construction land development loan. It's 353 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 1: been tough for them to get that permitting issues, hard 354 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: to get workers in some parts of the country because 355 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 1: of labor shortages, supply construte. You know, there's there's a 356 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: trade group that worries about lumber and they're telling me that, 357 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: you know that you have beetles eating all the lumber 358 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 1: in Canada because of you know, the global warming. They're 359 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: not getting killed and so that's affecting construction different parts 360 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,479 Speaker 1: of the Northwest. So you've got all these nitpicky supply 361 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: side constraints on the market. But ultimately, I think we're 362 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: gonna see a lot more house and construction simply because 363 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 1: households are forming and those households have to lift with 364 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: somewhere by definition, and that means more house things coming owners. 365 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 1: Equivalent rent just one of the many series is three 366 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: point one percent. It's migrated from two on a very 367 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: linear fashion up to three point one over the last 368 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: four years. So it's got a nice established trend. When 369 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: does the zany radar go up over rent increases, it's up. 370 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 1: It's up, And that goes to my point about housing construction. 371 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: It's you know, well below what we need. That means 372 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: vacancy rates are declining. In vacancy rates, rentalv incancy rates 373 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: are thirty thirty five year loads and falling. Home innery 374 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 1: vacancy rates are falling very rapidly and are going to 375 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: be uh, you know, close to record lows soon. So 376 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 1: that means stronger rent growth. And going back to your 377 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: point about momentum inertia, rent growth has a lot of 378 00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: inertial aspects to it. That's like a that's like an 379 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: aircraft carrier. So that's one reason why I do think 380 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: that inflation is going to be above target because rent 381 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 1: cost of shelter is a big chunk of you know, inflation, 382 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: and you know, in the core c p I it's 383 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 1: you know, I think it's forty the CPI. Mark, thank 384 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: you so much, Uh, Mark Zandy with us this morning 385 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: with the uh Michael McKee, I just put out on 386 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Plus that owner's equivalent red chart. That may 387 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: be my chart, a single best chart tomorrow. It is elevated, 388 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 1: it is it is where it was before the boom 389 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: take off of two thousand three ish and then two 390 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 1: thousand six is it's it's it's an I did not 391 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: realize how it's above its average back twenty years. Just 392 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: to get everybody's attention. Yeah, well we're seeing some price 393 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: pressures and big question is how high, how fast and 394 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: when does the fan take notice? So there we go 395 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: Mark Sandy um And and a major shout out to 396 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 1: the optimists that we speak to UH with some of 397 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 1: the data that we've seen over the last three or 398 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 1: four days has had a certain lift to it. Still 399 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 1: to come, industrial production coming up at forecast to be out. 400 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: We'll see to those cautious, maybe it speaks to two 401 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: America's one doing very well. David Wilson has darkened the door. 402 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: I think he's talking Home depot. Another hour of Bloomberg surveillance.