WEBVTT - Vibe Coding is BS w/ Charlie Meyer

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<v Speaker 1>As Media.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your host ed

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<v Speaker 2>ze Tron. We're here in the beautiful iHeart Radio Studios

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<v Speaker 2>in New York City, and I've got a guest, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>Charlie Meyer, the esteem blogger and CEO of Picko. Charlie,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you for joining me. Yeah, thanks for having me. So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>you've you've gained some I would say, notoriety recently by

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<v Speaker 2>making blogs that go against the oinking of the hogs

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<v Speaker 2>of the Valley. And I think your scaling laws piece

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<v Speaker 2>was the one that really got going. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>So I my blog gets some love and mostly hate

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<v Speaker 3>on Hacker News. That's my distribution channel, right, and so

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<v Speaker 3>I'm trying to get off of that. We're gonna try

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<v Speaker 3>and build it like a newsletter type thing. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>I'll burst on Hacker News and every once in a

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<v Speaker 3>while I'll go something that blows up and I'll get

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<v Speaker 3>my get my haters in there.

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<v Speaker 2>So, so what is it that's pissing them off?

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<v Speaker 3>So, like I had to post a few weeks back

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<v Speaker 3>that was on I called it LLLMS or the Ultimate

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<v Speaker 3>demoware right, And so I had to find demoware as

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<v Speaker 3>software that you make the software, and it works well

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<v Speaker 3>in the thirty minutes that you're showing off to executives

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<v Speaker 3>or whoever's going to buy it, right, and then it

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't do the thing right, It doesn't do the thing

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<v Speaker 3>day to day. And so I listed some examples and

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<v Speaker 3>my startups in etech, right, so we do, you know?

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<v Speaker 3>And so like there's always something that I pick on.

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<v Speaker 3>Is I really hate AI tutors and we can get

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<v Speaker 3>into to that and how that all of courks. But

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<v Speaker 3>so I said, oh, I listed out a few things

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<v Speaker 3>that I thought were demoware. So it's like, oh, vibe

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<v Speaker 3>coading that makes dashboards, right now, that's an easy thing

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<v Speaker 3>to pick on. And I said, you know AI tutors,

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<v Speaker 3>And I said, well, maybe the kid won't want to

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<v Speaker 3>talk to an AI tutor. Yeah, that was the critique

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<v Speaker 3>I made, right, It is like maybe they just don't

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<v Speaker 3>want to talk to him, Yeah, won't want to talk

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<v Speaker 3>to a post they want to maybe they want to

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<v Speaker 3>have like a teacher who is like in the classroom.

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<v Speaker 2>Crazy idea maybe, yeah. But did people know like that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, yeah, so some some people, uh, you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>can name names of for me too, But I actually

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<v Speaker 3>don't know how to pronounce them. So uh but anyway,

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<v Speaker 3>so people are in there and they're like, you have

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<v Speaker 3>no idea, Like if you think that AI can't tutor calculus,

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<v Speaker 3>like you have never even tried, It's like it's a classic,

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<v Speaker 3>Like you're missing out, Like you somehow are completely missing

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<v Speaker 3>the point.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know something's really good and the innovative when

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<v Speaker 2>the only defense of it is you're a moron. You

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<v Speaker 2>you well you have never tried it.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's like, well, what if I like have like

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<v Speaker 3>what if this is like actually the thing I spend

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<v Speaker 3>my time on is thinking about this.

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<v Speaker 2>You're a non AI I d E. Right, so coding.

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<v Speaker 3>Environment, yeah, yeah, well and that yeah, we got yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>lots of that, lots of that. But like so the

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<v Speaker 3>software that I make batting around a little bit here,

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<v Speaker 3>but Replet was a copy and so Replet was a

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<v Speaker 3>very loved by Teacher's id online and their whole thing

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<v Speaker 3>was like we teach like we held you teach coding

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<v Speaker 3>online because it's a way for you to run Python

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<v Speaker 3>and Java and all your code online and you can

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<v Speaker 3>do it and you can do it on crumb books

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<v Speaker 3>and you can collaborate and they had like teacher tools

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<v Speaker 3>and they sold the software to schools. I was a

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<v Speaker 3>teacher for a couple of years, so it's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>like my background as an engineer and then a teacher,

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<v Speaker 3>and I used replet and it's awesome. Well this was

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<v Speaker 3>this before they used A or this is before they

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<v Speaker 3>used AI. So so replate just for the listeners right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Replate is an AI powered coding environment that claims to

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<v Speaker 3>be able to vibe code software but doesn't really.

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<v Speaker 2>But what did it used to be?

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<v Speaker 3>So it used to be an excellent tool, just an

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<v Speaker 3>absolutely fantastic tool. It was it was just you go on,

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<v Speaker 3>you log on like Google Docs for coding, right, So,

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<v Speaker 3>like you think, okay, well you back in the day

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<v Speaker 3>you'd have to download Microsoft Word and whatever and that

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<v Speaker 3>socks and you know, it's great to bring that online

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<v Speaker 3>into the cloud. And they did that and they were

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<v Speaker 3>like very innovative. They were kind of the first to

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<v Speaker 3>market of having like a very fully featured online ide

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<v Speaker 3>and that is useful for exactly one thing, and that

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<v Speaker 3>is useful for teaching in schools, right because like you

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<v Speaker 3>have kids and they have two hundred dollars chrumebooks that

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<v Speaker 3>the school bought them, and so you get Replet and

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<v Speaker 3>like boom, I have a great way to teach computer science.

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<v Speaker 3>Now that is fantastic, and that's what it used to

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<v Speaker 3>be USI yeah, and now it's just and now it's yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so listen this you probably heard me mentioned Replet

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<v Speaker 2>in the past. It's one of my least favorite, most

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<v Speaker 2>favorite companies. If you go on the replet reddit.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just the wallet inspect And so now that's kind

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<v Speaker 4>of like I've gotten rid of most of my like

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<v Speaker 4>doom scrolling places, but like this is I don't know

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<v Speaker 4>what type of scrolling it is, but like I go.

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<v Speaker 2>On our replet Yeah yeah, yeah, exactly, and it's just

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<v Speaker 2>so funny. It's just God being like, yeah, spend fifteen

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<v Speaker 2>hundred dollars. It doesn't really work. Yeah, but I think

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<v Speaker 2>if I spend five thousand more dollars it might. Well.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean people are like, okay, well should I spend

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<v Speaker 3>five thousand dollars? I mean we can we can be

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<v Speaker 3>reasonable that you can bring the numbers down to reality.

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<v Speaker 3>It's I spent fifty dollars, which for a person who

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<v Speaker 3>has got a bad suffare, Yeah, that's that's a big

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<v Speaker 3>waste of money. And they're like, okay, well it seems

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<v Speaker 3>like I might need to spend two hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 3>dollars more or should I go on fiver her. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>and then it's just people and Reddit. I mean it's Reddit,

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<v Speaker 3>so they're just like skill issue.

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<v Speaker 2>Well that and also the people who were like it

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<v Speaker 2>am running into this problem.

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<v Speaker 3>And then a lot of that yeah, where it's like

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<v Speaker 3>and but replet just just for for anyone on there

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<v Speaker 3>on replet right now? Yeah, like what did they do

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<v Speaker 3>to teachers? So teachers? They had a product for teachers

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<v Speaker 3>that worked, that was great, that was well teachers. And

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<v Speaker 3>on this November somethink twenty twenty three, this is a

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<v Speaker 3>big day for my business because this is the only

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<v Speaker 3>reason I have my business is to replace replet. Because

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<v Speaker 3>they turned on AI autocomplete for kids, no way to

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<v Speaker 3>shut it off.

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<v Speaker 2>Doesn't that defeat the purpose of learning? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>So I had a I have a small YouTube channel

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<v Speaker 3>with not you know, a million subscribers, but you know,

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<v Speaker 3>I talked to teachers on there, and you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>had a customer of mine on there and they were like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>you know that year, it just seemed like the guy

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<v Speaker 3>he just like he missed the fact the AI got

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<v Speaker 3>turned on, no one sentiment announcement or an email or

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<v Speaker 3>a warning.

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<v Speaker 2>All of his students were just amazing. They were.

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<v Speaker 3>He was like, yeah, everybody, everybody, everybody got an A

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<v Speaker 3>that semester, Like, I wonder, you know did that actually?

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<v Speaker 2>So did students actually end up getting great schools? Because

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<v Speaker 2>no one knows the AI go?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean it took depending on who you If

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<v Speaker 3>you're wandering around the classroom looking at students and you

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<v Speaker 3>see them all tab completing, like because AI just.

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<v Speaker 2>Just for the listeners as well spelled out. So with

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<v Speaker 2>these AI platforms, you hit tab complete because it's basically

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<v Speaker 2>like auto correct decoding.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and so so like AI for what it's worth,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, we can be really balanced podcast. But AI

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<v Speaker 3>can really well, it can solve intro to computer science

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<v Speaker 3>for ninth grader problems with the incredible accuracy.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's call Brown from the Internet bugs. He said. It

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<v Speaker 2>makes the easy things easier and the hard thing's hort.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, and so yeah, so if you need to, if

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<v Speaker 3>you're in ninth grade and you're writing your first program,

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<v Speaker 3>yeah you can. You can tab complete the whole thing

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<v Speaker 3>in one go. It'll one shot at d that's incredible.

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<v Speaker 3>It'll one shot program.

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<v Speaker 2>It's this term that term just listeners is like it

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<v Speaker 2>means that you just give it a problem and it

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<v Speaker 2>solves it correctly. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's like count to ten and the AI can

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<v Speaker 3>count to ten, which is incredible.

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<v Speaker 2>That's revolutionary. But fun fun fact if you try and

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<v Speaker 2>make chat GPT count to a million, it freaks out

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<v Speaker 2>if you do the voice mode. Adam Kinna told me

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<v Speaker 2>this one. If you go like counter a million, it

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<v Speaker 2>stops around nine or ten and then says should I continue,

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<v Speaker 2>and it just won't do it. It's very funny. I

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<v Speaker 2>love living in the future. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>So they they though they turn on the AI and

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<v Speaker 3>then they were like, we're not doing education and companies

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<v Speaker 3>have deprecated things.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it happens actually not their main product whatever.

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<v Speaker 3>So that I mean, I'll tell you, you know, I'm

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<v Speaker 3>an indie developer whatever. Like our software does not make

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<v Speaker 3>a ton of money because there isn't that much money

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<v Speaker 3>selling an online ide to schools. There's money, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>not it's not a billion dollar business.

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<v Speaker 2>It's fine. I don't know this replet but yeah, but

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<v Speaker 2>you can't write billions of valuations.

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<v Speaker 3>No, no saying hey, we're you know, kids have chromebooks

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<v Speaker 3>and we're gonna you know, charge ten dollars a student

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<v Speaker 3>or whatever. Like you can't of course that you're not

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<v Speaker 3>going to raise a bill.

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<v Speaker 2>You're not.

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<v Speaker 3>That's not a billion dollar business, no, But the AI

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<v Speaker 3>thing seems magical. And then you know, the vibe coding

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<v Speaker 3>thing happened. And you know, as soon as the vibe

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<v Speaker 3>coding stuff started happening, they were like, we're all in

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<v Speaker 3>on this, and they deleted. They deleted every lead, so

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<v Speaker 3>not just deprecated. Right, So it's one thing to deprecate software.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's like and deprecate is when you stop supporting together.

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<v Speaker 3>You say it's it's no longer supported. When you put

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<v Speaker 3>up a big red scary banner on the top saying

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<v Speaker 3>your work is read only, you cannot create anymore. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>that is a really mean thing to do with. But

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<v Speaker 3>it happens. Software changes, you know, repl it for what

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<v Speaker 3>it's worth to be nice and fair to them, Like

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<v Speaker 3>they have investors and they're under the gun to provide

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<v Speaker 3>some returns and so whatever. The teacher thing isn't gonna

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<v Speaker 3>make them a ton of money. But they deleted the stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>Just why And when you say the stuff was this

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<v Speaker 2>like projects that schools have been working on.

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<v Speaker 3>It was so a teacher says, I'm going to spend

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<v Speaker 3>two three years putting in all my curriculum, all these

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<v Speaker 3>markdown files, all this stuff, all these tests. I'm going

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<v Speaker 3>to configure all this stuff. No deleted, gone.

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<v Speaker 2>Monsters deleted actual monsters and now but they sent the

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<v Speaker 2>warning email ed, Wow in July. When are teachers online

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<v Speaker 2>looking at their work email in July? Yeah? Classic, classic,

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<v Speaker 2>big month for teachers to.

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<v Speaker 3>Be on the well for American teachers, Yeah, it's not

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<v Speaker 3>a huge month. So yeah, in July we say we're

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<v Speaker 3>going to delete all your stuff and then it's gone.

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<v Speaker 2>Was there any way to back it up? Well there

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't until they deleted it.

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<v Speaker 4>All.

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<v Speaker 2>That's so cool. It's awesome.

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<v Speaker 3>So they're an awesome Like if you're a replet developer,

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<v Speaker 3>you know when when the next big thing comes up

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<v Speaker 3>and Replet may decide to delete all your stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>Well replet they launched Asient three. Oh yeah, that was

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<v Speaker 2>my favorite launch of product I've ever seen. Because I've

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<v Speaker 2>mentioned this on the show before, but they it's like, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>it's an autonomous coding thing and it's just the digital

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<v Speaker 2>mister bean, it's just like, why don't you go off

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<v Speaker 2>and build me a software thing? And it just fucking

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<v Speaker 2>spends one hundred dollars and goes, I am, I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know you like this. I don't fucking care. And then

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<v Speaker 2>they had to release the thing where you could make

0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:06.440
<v Speaker 2>it think less. They had to like add tweaks to

0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.840
<v Speaker 2>it because it was so bad. It's I actually feel like,

0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:11.400
<v Speaker 2>and I'm not putting words in your mouth there, I

0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.480
<v Speaker 2>feel like vibe coding maybe just fraud. I think it's

0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:17.000
<v Speaker 2>a fraud. I don't it should not be legal to

0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:18.880
<v Speaker 2>lielight because it is a fucking lie.

0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:23.319
<v Speaker 3>So so I will. I'll defend the vibe coder platforms.

0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:28.320
<v Speaker 3>But the defense now, I mean it's it's it is.

0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.280
<v Speaker 3>It's fraudulent, right, I mean like if you say, hey,

0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.880
<v Speaker 3>you don't know how to code at all, and uh yeah,

0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:37.400
<v Speaker 3>just sign on to this website and I mean look

0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:38.280
<v Speaker 3>at their marketing page.

0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:42.000
<v Speaker 2>That's exactly what I'm loading loading. It's with a nice

0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:44.520
<v Speaker 2>blue iPhone Air. Oh yeah, beautiful. I have the I

0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.840
<v Speaker 2>have the Space Black. Hell yeah, the iPhone app Rise up.

0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:49.960
<v Speaker 2>It's a great phone. It's a great phone. I'm not

0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:52.560
<v Speaker 2>Apple made me pay for it. Yeah, turn your ideas

0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.079
<v Speaker 2>into apps? What will you create? The possibilities are endless.

0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:57.240
<v Speaker 2>And then it's a fake prompt that says, make me

0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.240
<v Speaker 2>a business tool for marketing teams that helps generate professal

0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:04.880
<v Speaker 2>business proposals and then add automated back up and recovery.

0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.560
<v Speaker 2>If I think if you asked Replet to do that,

0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:10.160
<v Speaker 2>it would cost three hundred dollars and nothing would happen.

0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.000
<v Speaker 2>I think it would just yeah on count a light

0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:14.640
<v Speaker 2>like barely functional code.

0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:17.559
<v Speaker 3>So I wrote a post on this and I was excited. Yeah,

0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:19.559
<v Speaker 3>and I was. I was excited to end the post

0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.920
<v Speaker 3>saying there has never been a successful thing.

0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:22.200
<v Speaker 2>Ever.

0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:26.760
<v Speaker 3>Unfortunately, Replet has added a set of case studies, and

0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:29.880
<v Speaker 3>I think that they use it. And so the case

0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:32.480
<v Speaker 3>studies are we sold to enterprises and we're going to

0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:38.640
<v Speaker 3>do prototypes of internal dev tools, not dev tools, internal

0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.199
<v Speaker 3>like you know, management software for inside your back office software.

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:46.440
<v Speaker 2>So they haven't had a case study since what looks

0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:50.680
<v Speaker 2>like August, and one of them is how Zinus says

0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:53.720
<v Speaker 2>one hundred and forty thousand dollars with replet and it

0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:56.160
<v Speaker 2>but it also cuts development time by fifty percent.

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.160
<v Speaker 3>But so then The question is did the person typing

0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.280
<v Speaker 3>stuff into uplet did they know how to code?

0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Exactly? See, that's if they know how to code whatever

0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:07.000
<v Speaker 2>the stuff, it's not vibe coding. It's just you could

0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:08.880
<v Speaker 2>have used custom you could use stuff. You could have

0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:12.320
<v Speaker 2>used any vs code or was it what's the free

0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:15.440
<v Speaker 2>one Amazon's doing now? Kiro? Maybe Kiro. And then there's

0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:17.920
<v Speaker 2>the I like the one that came out from China

0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.439
<v Speaker 2>and everyone was like, that's gonna send information to that

0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:24.840
<v Speaker 2>Chinese It's like will it? I don't know, but I

0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.160
<v Speaker 2>don't think they're going to Your clone of Flappy Bird

0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:28.800
<v Speaker 2>has got to be taken up. Yeah.

0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.720
<v Speaker 3>The way that the word vibe coding has the meaning

0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:35.920
<v Speaker 3>that it has today I believe is you do not

0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:38.200
<v Speaker 3>know how to code. You type prompt and you get

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 3>app out. And I'm not going to dock this person

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.280
<v Speaker 3>because they were nice to me once, but like there's

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.000
<v Speaker 3>a person online like they just do like, oh, here's

0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:47.760
<v Speaker 3>one hundred days of AI and I'm going to make

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:52.480
<v Speaker 3>a fully functional software as a service company fully and

0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:54.280
<v Speaker 3>I don't know how to code. And then you look

0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:55.920
<v Speaker 3>at this person and they're typing in the prompts. It's

0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.440
<v Speaker 3>like they clearly have like a pretty strong technical background,

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:01.560
<v Speaker 3>and then the thing still doesn't work. By the way,

0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:02.280
<v Speaker 3>that's like.

0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.320
<v Speaker 2>Cool, Like they know how things work and it's still broken.

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:06.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so I mean whatever, this person was like a

0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.520
<v Speaker 3>product manager or something, so like they know what an

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:11.920
<v Speaker 3>API is, and they know what a web server is,

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:13.720
<v Speaker 3>and they know the names of the different technologies, and

0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.080
<v Speaker 3>like that's going to get them part of the way there.

0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.160
<v Speaker 3>But the idea that you can end to end create

0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.400
<v Speaker 3>a software product that has some value.

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's crazy. We would have heard about it. No,

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 2>that's kind of your demo. Workpost was really good about

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.120
<v Speaker 2>this because it was kind of like, look, you can

0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:29.440
<v Speaker 2>do the proof of concept. You can do this, but

0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:31.440
<v Speaker 2>we've never seen the next stage. And someone else did

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 2>a really good one was like shovel weear. They said,

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.480
<v Speaker 2>where's the shovelwear? Where's the crap software? They I remember

0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:38.199
<v Speaker 2>the first times I was on the Internet, the amount

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.160
<v Speaker 2>of weird shareware. Shit, there was just like different forms

0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 2>of IRC clients and shit, there were people making weird software.

0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 2>Why isn't that happening?

0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.319
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean so you'll see, Okay, I made flappy Bird,

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.600
<v Speaker 3>I made a weird thing I made like you can

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:57.000
<v Speaker 3>make little small pieces of software for yourself that maybe

0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.560
<v Speaker 3>have a little bit of value. It is fun, it

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.440
<v Speaker 3>is an novel, yes if you know like.

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 2>But then it then it doesn't work like it's so,

0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:05.840
<v Speaker 2>I do not know.

0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:07.840
<v Speaker 3>I'm a web developer, so I know how to do

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 3>web apps. I call it code for shits though, yeah whatever,

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 3>but like it's that, that's what I know. That's that's

0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 3>what I've been doing. I've been coding for whatever, and

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.160
<v Speaker 3>I know how to do that. I do not know

0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 3>how to make iPhone apps. So I was like, okay,

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:20.880
<v Speaker 3>you know what I'm gonna do. They just announced Claude

0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.640
<v Speaker 3>whatever because I'm interested in this stuff. I'm an early adopter.

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:26.880
<v Speaker 2>I don't And also, if it did, what however I

0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:29.880
<v Speaker 2>may feel about AI If it actually did well, if

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 2>Vibe coding was real, that would actually be a huge dal.

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 2>That would be a huge fucking dal. I wouldn't I

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 2>would have all my ethical concerns. If I could actually

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:41.160
<v Speaker 2>build software without knowing anything, Wow, that would be great.

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:42.280
<v Speaker 2>Never been the case.

0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:44.480
<v Speaker 3>But you tried, though, well, so I tried. So so

0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:46.600
<v Speaker 3>my idea was like, Okay, I use my phone too much.

0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 3>I'm gonna make an app called app snooze. It takes.

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 3>So you say I want Gmail, I want it snooze

0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:53.600
<v Speaker 3>for a half hour. Got it so that when I

0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:55.800
<v Speaker 3>open up the Gmail app, it used this screen time

0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.040
<v Speaker 3>thing and it says blocked, and then thirty minutes is up.

0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:01.480
<v Speaker 3>I get it back, right. That is impossible to make

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 3>using iOS essentially without like a substantial amount of work.

0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 3>It's it's based on like the limitations of how Apple

0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.480
<v Speaker 3>does their stuff with screen time. It just cannot be done.

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 3>So I type this stuff in claude is like sitting there.

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 3>It's like, oh, yeah, you're You're awesome. You are killing me, dude,

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.840
<v Speaker 3>this is a great idea. You got this, you got this, yeah,

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 3>which it actually does say in one off there. I've

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.440
<v Speaker 3>been watching like the World Series or whatever, and a

0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.160
<v Speaker 3>lot of NFL and like the chatchypt Ads. We can

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:28.320
<v Speaker 3>hopefully talk about those.

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 2>I haven't told any of those, Okay, well, oh no, no,

0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 2>I love to hear about this because I'm a Raiders fan. Yeah,

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.920
<v Speaker 2>and I try not to watch. If I needed to

0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:42.480
<v Speaker 2>watch a poorly conceived product, I could just use my

0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:46.960
<v Speaker 2>season tickets, but I solved them, so wait, but keep going.

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.320
<v Speaker 3>Though, okay, well but see so it's like you got this,

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 3>but then it's this is the whatever. So they have Haiku,

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 3>and they've sonn It, and they have Opus. Yes, so

0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 3>whatever awesome names. But so they have son It, which

0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.600
<v Speaker 3>is the really good one. You know, it's very well respected.

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:04.080
<v Speaker 3>It's supposed to be it's supposed to be the cloud

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 3>is supposed to be a good one for coding. And

0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 3>so I was like, I'm gonna pay. I'm gonna pay

0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 3>twenty dollars. I'm just gonna see what happens. If I

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:10.200
<v Speaker 3>can get this thing on the app Store, that'll be great.

0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:12.000
<v Speaker 3>I'm gonna charge ninety nine cents. Let's see if I

0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:13.640
<v Speaker 3>make a hundred bucks. Sure, see if I make my

0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 3>Apple Developer account back, Yeah, dump a hundred bucks into

0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 3>the Apple Developer account. Awesome on Apple. By the way,

0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 3>you can't actually do have the app coding that you

0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:23.640
<v Speaker 3>need to without paying on a hundred bucks. So good,

0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.680
<v Speaker 3>that's a business, that's that's Apple bang. But anyways, so

0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 3>I do that. I want to make my hundred bucks back,

0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 3>but it cannot be done.

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.640
<v Speaker 2>Well, the app you couldn't build the Apple though it sounds.

0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 3>But because because of like literal limitations in how iOS

0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.840
<v Speaker 3>works in terms of like you can't have a timer

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.200
<v Speaker 3>that goes off and messes with screen time. That's just

0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 3>not a thing that Apple was.

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 2>This thing called Brick, whether it's a physical device as well,

0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.240
<v Speaker 2>but that feels like a Bluetooth. Something's going on with Brick.

0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 2>I don't know. But here's here's the thing as well.

0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 2>With all of this, you just made me think it

0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:55.520
<v Speaker 2>is weird that the app doesn't just go yeah, I

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 2>can't build that NTE.

0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:58.400
<v Speaker 3>It'd be nice if it did say that, and it

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.600
<v Speaker 3>was this was weird. I had never observe this behavior before.

0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:05.479
<v Speaker 3>And again I've posted online like okay, you know this,

0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:08.440
<v Speaker 3>you know three bees in Blueberry that thing?

0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:10.399
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, yeah.

0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:12.800
<v Speaker 3>Whatever, and people I posted that on LinkedIn and someone

0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 3>was like, you are lying, and I post my link. Yeah,

0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:18.639
<v Speaker 3>I post the link to the chat and they're like,

0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:20.600
<v Speaker 3>you had a secret prompt that told it to be stupid.

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:22.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's prompt injection. Yeah.

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.119
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, like you have a system prompt that says like

0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:26.639
<v Speaker 3>it's like stupid as ship did.

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:28.359
<v Speaker 2>Yeah a piece of ship. Dude.

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:31.000
<v Speaker 3>I messed up. I put be stupid in my system.

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:33.560
<v Speaker 3>I should have put I should have put be smart.

0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:35.200
<v Speaker 3>If I put smart, it would have worked.

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:47.720
<v Speaker 2>So on this. You just reminded me when I was

0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:49.440
<v Speaker 2>dicking around with clode code. So I did the story

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 2>a few months ago about how you know, I don't

0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:53.040
<v Speaker 2>know if you've seen like vibrank where it's got like

0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 2>people in cloth spend fifty thousand dollars. I love those people.

0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 2>I think that's awesome. Well to try this myself, I

0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 2>went on. I was like, what is the most token

0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:02.280
<v Speaker 2>intensive software you could build me. It's like, oh yeah,

0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:04.280
<v Speaker 2>an autonomous car and a bet of us. I'm like, cool,

0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:08.320
<v Speaker 2>build all of that. It just sat house just and

0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:10.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't even know what's sped out at the end.

0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:12.639
<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean it certainly, well you could have a

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:14.520
<v Speaker 3>trillion dollars start up on your hands, but it's just

0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 3>you should check out that code.

0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 2>It's so sick that these things don't even go like, yeah,

0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 2>we can't do that, Like I can't do an autonomous

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:24.160
<v Speaker 2>car starts up. I don't have any training data. Very basic.

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:25.840
<v Speaker 3>But if it was, if it was, if that thing

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 3>was smart or useful, right, it has the ability to

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:30.440
<v Speaker 3>look things up online. Yeah, you should have looked through

0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:32.560
<v Speaker 3>the documentation, and it sort of said, well, what can

0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:34.240
<v Speaker 3>we do with timers? What can we do a screen time?

0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:36.159
<v Speaker 3>Can you hook up a timer to screen time. I

0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 3>will let you do this in the background and get

0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.840
<v Speaker 3>the half hour time incorrectly, And it's like it's it's

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.040
<v Speaker 3>it's demoware and it allows you to build demoware.

0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:44.479
<v Speaker 2>But it didn't even build a demo of this. Well,

0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:45.320
<v Speaker 2>so now it.

0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:47.040
<v Speaker 3>Built me something I was kind of excited about because

0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.280
<v Speaker 3>it it let me pick the app. So I picked Gmail,

0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 3>and I picked thirty minutes and then it it it worked.

0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.640
<v Speaker 3>Gmail's turned off, right, thirty minutes elapse?

0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:58.879
<v Speaker 2>Right? Gmail is not back on? Oh so you just

0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:01.639
<v Speaker 2>cut Gmail? Well, I mean it's not been in your

0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:02.440
<v Speaker 2>email since.

0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:05.560
<v Speaker 3>No, exactly, Sorry customers, if you have been emailing me,

0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:10.000
<v Speaker 3>it's messed up. No, but it it was like it's

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 3>just lied, right, I mean, And so like that's imagine

0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:16.040
<v Speaker 3>being someone I'm a software developer. Okay, whatever, I'm gonna

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:17.720
<v Speaker 3>I don't know iOS, but like I'm gonna go on

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:19.400
<v Speaker 3>the Apple pages and see what's up, and I'm gonna

0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 3>ask some meaningful follow ups and determine that this didn't work.

0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:24.320
<v Speaker 3>And Okay, I lost my hundred bucks in the developer

0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:26.680
<v Speaker 3>yeah account. But if you don't know how to code,

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:28.960
<v Speaker 3>you're going to be like, what are you going to do?

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.119
<v Speaker 2>Well, there's nothing you can do, because the reason I

0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 2>read the replic pages and the cursor pages and the

0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:37.119
<v Speaker 2>Curse of One, it's people that can code a little

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.399
<v Speaker 2>be at least a little bit. But replet is just

0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.200
<v Speaker 2>it's fifty percent and same with lovables. Read it as well,

0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.520
<v Speaker 2>Lovables and other listeners. It's another AI coding platform sold,

0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.760
<v Speaker 2>a survived coding thing, and it's all it's fifty percent

0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 2>people being like I've spent three hundred dollars, and then

0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.639
<v Speaker 2>like ten percent people just lying. People be like I

0:19:55.720 --> 0:19:59.560
<v Speaker 2>just reached twelve thousand M or monthly recurring revenue. It's

0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:01.159
<v Speaker 2>all good for and everyone being like can I see it?

0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 2>And they never respond. And then there's the there's the

0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:08.040
<v Speaker 2>people who are like looking for a REDPLT developer, and

0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:10.520
<v Speaker 2>it's like, so you're looking for someone that can write software,

0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:14.800
<v Speaker 2>because write and build software interesting, like a software developer

0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.880
<v Speaker 2>might say, and I don't know where to find one. Yeah.

0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:21.080
<v Speaker 3>It's almost like there are like hundreds of thousands, millions

0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.000
<v Speaker 3>of people trying to do that, but yeah, we don't

0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:26.520
<v Speaker 3>need them. We can just we talk into the thing

0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:29.119
<v Speaker 3>and turn your app into reality except you.

0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:33.040
<v Speaker 2>It's just it is really crazy how much vibe coding

0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:36.359
<v Speaker 2>is proliferate considering how fucking it's nothing.

0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:39.840
<v Speaker 3>Well so, but so if you need, like if you

0:20:39.840 --> 0:20:44.120
<v Speaker 3>need a prototype, So if like this whole thing boils

0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:46.720
<v Speaker 3>down to if if the expectations were real, if it

0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:49.920
<v Speaker 3>was like, yeah, turn your app, turn your sentence into

0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:53.960
<v Speaker 3>a prototype of an application in minutes. Okay, yeah, like

0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:57.720
<v Speaker 3>an MVP. MVP is like, oh yeah, used to work,

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:00.800
<v Speaker 3>but well okay, oh sorry, I thought you were saying.

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:02.639
<v Speaker 2>Hypothetical world where it works.

0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:05.040
<v Speaker 3>Well no, yeah, sorry, Well now in a hypothetical world

0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:07.360
<v Speaker 3>and where it does what it does today, you can

0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:10.800
<v Speaker 3>get like a mock up. If it's a build a

0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:14.040
<v Speaker 3>semi functional wireframe mockup of your application that you could

0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:16.240
<v Speaker 3>show to kind of validate your idea to your friends

0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.520
<v Speaker 3>in minutes. Yeah, for thirty dollars or whoever it's your

0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.720
<v Speaker 3>credits and up being. That's fine, But does that happen?

0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:25.200
<v Speaker 2>Doesn't it? You could kind of do that. You're lucky,

0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:27.160
<v Speaker 2>it's you roll the dice. That's the thing. It's always

0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:30.960
<v Speaker 2>if you're lucky. There's enough asterisks on this. It's just

0:21:31.040 --> 0:21:33.919
<v Speaker 2>insane that it's got this far because I've read a

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:36.280
<v Speaker 2>lot of vibe coding articles and if you read like

0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:38.760
<v Speaker 2>Kevin Ruce of course in the Times and people like that,

0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:41.640
<v Speaker 2>you read these articles and you'd think, Wow, you can

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:43.480
<v Speaker 2>just do this, you can just go and do this.

0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:46.679
<v Speaker 2>This is the future is today. But it's not really

0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:48.840
<v Speaker 2>not really the case at all.

0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 3>But I think that the thing that's so like pernicious

0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:55.920
<v Speaker 3>about it is that it's so easy to just say

0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:56.960
<v Speaker 3>skill issue.

0:21:57.080 --> 0:22:00.000
<v Speaker 2>You just two words. You're prompt you're prompting it wrong,

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:02.840
<v Speaker 2>David devait Yer old thing. But now it's yeah, you're

0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:03.520
<v Speaker 2>prompting it wrong.

0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:06.760
<v Speaker 3>You're prompting it wrong. And so and there's no real

0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:09.480
<v Speaker 3>way to disprove that because can we go back in

0:22:09.560 --> 0:22:12.920
<v Speaker 3>time and like, because it's all this probabilistic stuff. And so,

0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.679
<v Speaker 3>so I have a post that I've put up and

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.720
<v Speaker 3>it's it's code doesn't happen to you, that's my thing

0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:21.160
<v Speaker 3>is So it's it's my because you know top programming

0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:24.000
<v Speaker 3>for a while, and so if you're teaching a new programmer,

0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:27.040
<v Speaker 3>sometimes if they have like if they've kind of gotten

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 3>unlucky and they have a bad attitude. They're you know,

0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 3>and it's not their fault, but they might think, like

0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.199
<v Speaker 3>coding is really mysterious and it's really weird, and I

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:36.480
<v Speaker 3>type code in and I press run, and it doesn't

0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:38.120
<v Speaker 3>always do what I want, and so I'm just gonna

0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 3>like mess around, right and like vibe coding is like

0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:43.679
<v Speaker 3>a productionized version of code happens to you. It's like

0:22:43.760 --> 0:22:46.960
<v Speaker 3>you press button, code pops out, it does a mysterious thing,

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:49.920
<v Speaker 3>and then like, you know, it's so it's like it's

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.280
<v Speaker 3>like that idea, which was the wrong way to program,

0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 3>but like that's the way we're doing it, like and

0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 3>we're going to what is the right way, though the

0:22:56.320 --> 0:23:00.399
<v Speaker 3>right way would be. A computer is like you operate

0:23:00.440 --> 0:23:03.080
<v Speaker 3>a computer. You turn it on, You open the coding

0:23:03.080 --> 0:23:04.919
<v Speaker 3>software that you're going to use, whether it's an online

0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:07.879
<v Speaker 3>software like my Wonderful software or you know, something like

0:23:07.920 --> 0:23:10.760
<v Speaker 3>vs code, like something for professionals, whatever, and you type

0:23:10.760 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 3>in code and you run it, and then the computer

0:23:14.480 --> 0:23:18.240
<v Speaker 3>like executes it runs the code according to the.

0:23:17.760 --> 0:23:19.520
<v Speaker 2>Programming like code is instructions.

0:23:19.560 --> 0:23:22.160
<v Speaker 3>Code is instructions, and the code like happens de terministically

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:24.520
<v Speaker 3>and maybe if you're, you know, developing a game, maybe

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.080
<v Speaker 3>there's some random elements to the software that you're developing,

0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:30.520
<v Speaker 3>but there's no randomness, like the randomness is under your control.

0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:33.439
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so it's true. It's the difference between treating it

0:23:33.480 --> 0:23:36.520
<v Speaker 2>as this mystic force that you pull together versus instructions.

0:23:36.560 --> 0:23:38.119
<v Speaker 3>It's instructions and so like if you're if you're a

0:23:38.119 --> 0:23:40.960
<v Speaker 3>really good programmer and maybe you're whatever, maybe you use

0:23:41.000 --> 0:23:43.679
<v Speaker 3>AI to save you some typing and you still have

0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:46.119
<v Speaker 3>that good attitude whatever, like you can use to say typing,

0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:46.560
<v Speaker 3>that's fine.

0:23:46.560 --> 0:23:49.719
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's the only real vapp like that that

0:23:49.760 --> 0:23:51.879
<v Speaker 2>feels like the only consistent thing is just filling in

0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:54.160
<v Speaker 2>blanks that you know you code yourself. Like it feels

0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:56.719
<v Speaker 2>in it's also correct, and I'm like, I'm which may

0:23:56.720 --> 0:23:59.360
<v Speaker 2>be useful. I'm not gonna lie like I use it.

0:23:59.560 --> 0:24:01.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, like I but I used to have a

0:24:01.840 --> 0:24:04.679
<v Speaker 3>paid GPT account, but I don't trust it to do

0:24:04.840 --> 0:24:06.680
<v Speaker 3>like the models. And this is one of the things

0:24:06.680 --> 0:24:08.600
<v Speaker 3>that I brought up in my post is the models

0:24:08.640 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 3>like aren't better now right that Well, GPT three was

0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:16.880
<v Speaker 3>okay and GPT four was like much genera and then

0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:19.639
<v Speaker 3>GBT five is trash. Yeah, I mean right, relatively speaking,

0:24:19.640 --> 0:24:21.480
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's a little bit better, and maybe it costs

0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:23.400
<v Speaker 3>open a eye more, which is a big development.

0:24:23.440 --> 0:24:26.119
<v Speaker 2>It was very very great for them and whatever you

0:24:26.200 --> 0:24:28.640
<v Speaker 2>had to cost them less, but it costs more, costs.

0:24:28.320 --> 0:24:31.440
<v Speaker 3>More, but so stop getting better. So that there was

0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 3>a time where I was like, I'm gonna I'm gonna

0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:34.240
<v Speaker 3>buy into this. IM an earlier after.

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:35.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm kind of I'm kind of a booster, Like I

0:24:35.760 --> 0:24:39.359
<v Speaker 2>I was cured going to where's your head? Dot at?

0:24:40.240 --> 0:24:42.840
<v Speaker 2>That's is it? Dot com? It's just where's your adult at? Oh,

0:24:42.840 --> 0:24:45.760
<v Speaker 2>where's your Okay, well, where's your head? Dot At?

0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 3>Cured me a little bit of this because I'm like,

0:24:48.119 --> 0:24:51.800
<v Speaker 3>and I've just had some situations where it's just failed

0:24:51.840 --> 0:24:54.359
<v Speaker 3>me so poorly. Like there was a confluence of events

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:56.119
<v Speaker 3>this summer where I was just like, no, what happened?

0:24:56.240 --> 0:24:58.520
<v Speaker 3>I'm done with this. First of all, I got a

0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:03.680
<v Speaker 3>strong recommendation from uh GPT to buy a software called

0:25:03.680 --> 0:25:08.439
<v Speaker 3>a script, which is like editing, because I have I

0:25:08.440 --> 0:25:10.399
<v Speaker 3>have a YouTube channel and I want to like I

0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:12.199
<v Speaker 3>say a lot of ums and ohs, and maybe I'm

0:25:12.200 --> 0:25:15.160
<v Speaker 3>saying some ums and ohs right now whatever, who cares? Yeah,

0:25:15.440 --> 0:25:17.600
<v Speaker 3>And but I'm like, okay, I'm gonna make this YouTube channel.

0:25:17.640 --> 0:25:19.480
<v Speaker 3>I want the production quality to be decent. If there's

0:25:19.480 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 3>a shortcut for me, it seems like a I might

0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:25.000
<v Speaker 3>be able to do this. So I'm like to GPT,

0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:27.720
<v Speaker 3>I'm like, what is good AI get rid of ums

0:25:27.800 --> 0:25:29.880
<v Speaker 3>and OS software just.

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:31.480
<v Speaker 2>Descript kind of like a Google search.

0:25:31.440 --> 0:25:34.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, yeah or whatever. It's an okay Google search

0:25:34.119 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 3>ye whatever. And so he said you got to use

0:25:36.040 --> 0:25:37.480
<v Speaker 3>the script, and I was like cool. And so I

0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:39.360
<v Speaker 3>put in my credit card twenty bucks or thirty bucks

0:25:39.400 --> 0:25:41.560
<v Speaker 3>or whatever whatever it was, just I put it in

0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 3>a recording and just completely mangled it.

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:43.359
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:46.639
<v Speaker 3>And it's just like the audio was unusable. It was

0:25:46.680 --> 0:25:48.320
<v Speaker 3>it was off by an eighth of a second off

0:25:48.320 --> 0:25:50.400
<v Speaker 3>my voice, and it's just like there's no way there's

0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:52.840
<v Speaker 3>I have no recourse and I'm not an audio engineer,

0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 3>and so I just okay, like I vibe, I vibe

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:59.200
<v Speaker 3>edited my my video and just ruined it.

0:25:59.200 --> 0:26:01.480
<v Speaker 2>It's almost like every promise they make is it's going

0:26:01.520 --> 0:26:03.800
<v Speaker 2>to automate everything. It's like, ah, not really, as long

0:26:03.840 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 2>as you know what you're doing.

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:06.840
<v Speaker 3>But this was like a meta level thing where the

0:26:06.880 --> 0:26:10.879
<v Speaker 3>AI recommended me either AI also screwed me over, and

0:26:10.920 --> 0:26:13.000
<v Speaker 3>so I'm like, okay, this is like this may this

0:26:13.040 --> 0:26:14.920
<v Speaker 3>is like because I was using it a search, right yeah,

0:26:14.960 --> 0:26:17.400
<v Speaker 3>and so but it failed me a search because it's

0:26:17.440 --> 0:26:21.719
<v Speaker 3>just emphatically And then you look, because then I was like, well,

0:26:21.720 --> 0:26:22.120
<v Speaker 3>what's wrong?

0:26:22.160 --> 0:26:24.040
<v Speaker 2>Am I? Is it a skill issue? Am I stupid?

0:26:24.560 --> 0:26:26.960
<v Speaker 2>And so I look and Reddit is just filled with

0:26:27.080 --> 0:26:28.880
<v Speaker 2>like this is the worst software, this is the worst

0:26:29.280 --> 0:26:33.440
<v Speaker 2>I used the script very briefly, and all I wanted

0:26:33.480 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 2>to do was take a bit of audio and turn

0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:39.040
<v Speaker 2>it into a video with the text happening. That's the

0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:42.199
<v Speaker 2>way you read their marketing material. You would look at

0:26:42.240 --> 0:26:43.720
<v Speaker 2>it and think it would take two seconds. Took me

0:26:43.720 --> 0:26:46.119
<v Speaker 2>about forty five minutes, and it was just by the

0:26:46.200 --> 0:26:47.679
<v Speaker 2>end of it, I'm like, I don't even want to

0:26:47.720 --> 0:26:50.960
<v Speaker 2>fucking that. I'm so angry because it's like, this should

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:54.680
<v Speaker 2>be a button press. The whole point of AI bullshit

0:26:54.800 --> 0:26:57.000
<v Speaker 2>is meant it should be a button press, and it

0:26:57.040 --> 0:26:59.320
<v Speaker 2>never is. Bo wait, well there are other events though.

0:26:59.200 --> 0:27:01.959
<v Speaker 3>Well, so there's that, and so there's that, and then

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:05.600
<v Speaker 3>it's like, so I'm also I'm a web developer, right,

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:08.560
<v Speaker 3>and so I'm not very good. I can't program mobile apps.

0:27:08.640 --> 0:27:10.400
<v Speaker 3>That's a thing that I can't do, don't know how.

0:27:10.840 --> 0:27:14.200
<v Speaker 3>I'm also not a very good like infrastructure systems programmer

0:27:14.320 --> 0:27:16.880
<v Speaker 3>whatever that's you know, cloud stuff whatever. I'm not great

0:27:16.920 --> 0:27:18.680
<v Speaker 3>at that, but that is an aspect of my job

0:27:18.680 --> 0:27:20.800
<v Speaker 3>that I have to do. Our website requires some infrastructure

0:27:20.840 --> 0:27:23.720
<v Speaker 3>difficult stuff. Over the years, I've actually gotten quite a

0:27:23.720 --> 0:27:26.159
<v Speaker 3>bit better at that, and so that used to be

0:27:26.200 --> 0:27:28.320
<v Speaker 3>a use case for me for GPT was like, oh,

0:27:28.359 --> 0:27:30.840
<v Speaker 3>it'll I'll ask you some infrastructure related questions, like I

0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:32.720
<v Speaker 3>know how to code, I can piece of I can

0:27:32.720 --> 0:27:34.680
<v Speaker 3>put the puzzle together, and you know, this is actually

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 3>going to save me a little bit of time. But

0:27:36.440 --> 0:27:39.720
<v Speaker 3>I have outpaced GPT's ability and infrastructure developments, so it's okay,

0:27:39.720 --> 0:27:42.640
<v Speaker 3>well I'm doing this project. It's not helping. Yeah, it's

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:44.879
<v Speaker 3>just wasting my time. Okay, no need for that. The

0:27:44.920 --> 0:27:47.439
<v Speaker 3>descript thing is BS And then I learned from at

0:27:47.520 --> 0:27:50.919
<v Speaker 3>Tetron that this stuff is horrendously expensive. So it's like

0:27:51.320 --> 0:27:53.800
<v Speaker 3>if this was just regular software's service and it costs

0:27:53.800 --> 0:27:57.680
<v Speaker 3>pennies to operate, and you know, it's like kind of helpful.

0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 2>Whatever, yeah, be in offensive. It would be like.

0:28:00.200 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 3>It's fine whatever. There's a company they offered me this

0:28:02.880 --> 0:28:05.600
<v Speaker 3>eight this thing and it didn't work, and you know

0:28:05.640 --> 0:28:08.840
<v Speaker 3>it happens. Yeah, but it's like in the context of

0:28:08.840 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 3>a world in which this is the future, this is

0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 3>magic in a click of a button you get perfect

0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:18.639
<v Speaker 3>audio out if that's the promise in the midst of

0:28:18.680 --> 0:28:20.639
<v Speaker 3>all this and an AI is recommending to it, this

0:28:20.760 --> 0:28:24.040
<v Speaker 3>is like meta leveled like off like dog shits a

0:28:24.160 --> 0:28:29.879
<v Speaker 3>situation and then it's and then it's the dressed disastrously expensive. Yeah,

0:28:29.920 --> 0:28:31.399
<v Speaker 3>like what is the point? What is the point of

0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:31.679
<v Speaker 3>all of this?

0:28:31.880 --> 0:28:35.280
<v Speaker 2>The point is we need to sell GPUs every and

0:28:35.440 --> 0:28:39.040
<v Speaker 2>literally in the car here they announced a seven years,

0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:41.400
<v Speaker 2>thirty eight billion dollar a day between open ai and

0:28:41.440 --> 0:28:44.479
<v Speaker 2>Amazon Web Services. It's just like, why so that we

0:28:44.520 --> 0:28:47.320
<v Speaker 2>can so that they can do sora to more so

0:28:47.360 --> 0:28:52.040
<v Speaker 2>they can generate more copyright infringement. It's and have do

0:28:52.120 --> 0:28:54.480
<v Speaker 2>you have you in the past used these coding models

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:55.840
<v Speaker 2>a lot or is it just kind of like on

0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:56.600
<v Speaker 2>the side.

0:28:56.720 --> 0:29:00.440
<v Speaker 3>I have so even like I will say, even like

0:29:00.440 --> 0:29:03.120
<v Speaker 3>two weeks ago, I had a very discreete task where

0:29:03.120 --> 0:29:05.360
<v Speaker 3>it's like, in this one situation, I want to do

0:29:05.400 --> 0:29:08.719
<v Speaker 3>this one little thing. Yeah, and I knew exactly what

0:29:08.760 --> 0:29:11.240
<v Speaker 3>it was, and I was lazy, and so I said, right,

0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:13.600
<v Speaker 3>write the code, and so I put in and then

0:29:13.600 --> 0:29:15.360
<v Speaker 3>this is a joke comment and people should do this

0:29:15.400 --> 0:29:17.360
<v Speaker 3>more often. I put in a I paste it in

0:29:17.400 --> 0:29:19.480
<v Speaker 3>the code, and I said, this code comes courtesy of

0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:21.880
<v Speaker 3>chatch ebt. If you have any issues with this software,

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:24.400
<v Speaker 3>please contact open AI. That's what I wrote in my code, and.

0:29:24.400 --> 0:29:27.880
<v Speaker 2>I should did and it worked great. Whatever. Okay, that's cool.

0:29:27.920 --> 0:29:31.040
<v Speaker 2>It's saved me twenty minutes. That's that's good. And that's

0:29:31.080 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 2>the thing that's the whole AI bubble. It's like, but

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:36.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm not a paying subscriber anymore. Oh, that's even worse

0:29:36.520 --> 0:29:36.840
<v Speaker 2>for them.

0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I know, I just you know, because it's it's

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:42.440
<v Speaker 3>the stupidest model of theirs could have come up with

0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:45.640
<v Speaker 3>that code because it was so easy, you know, it

0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:47.920
<v Speaker 3>was it was finicky, it was annoying. There are bit

0:29:48.000 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 3>situations where I f saying, you know, I say, oh

0:29:50.280 --> 0:29:51.920
<v Speaker 3>there's a bug in this code. I paste it in

0:29:51.960 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 3>and it looks it over and it saved me in

0:29:55.480 --> 0:29:58.280
<v Speaker 3>aggregate tens of hours in the last three years.

0:29:58.720 --> 0:30:01.680
<v Speaker 2>That's fine. It's like, if it was regular sass, I'd

0:30:01.720 --> 0:30:02.840
<v Speaker 2>be like cool, yeah.

0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:04.880
<v Speaker 3>I if it was I think that's kind of part

0:30:04.880 --> 0:30:06.800
<v Speaker 3>of why I canceled the subscription, because if it was

0:30:07.560 --> 0:30:09.640
<v Speaker 3>you know, whatever you needed value your time, you know,

0:30:09.680 --> 0:30:11.760
<v Speaker 3>I could if it was twenty bucks a month and

0:30:11.800 --> 0:30:14.600
<v Speaker 3>it saved me an hour a month, hey, you know yeah,

0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:14.960
<v Speaker 3>it's like.

0:30:15.040 --> 0:30:17.760
<v Speaker 2>Like trip it or flighty, like it's a little bit

0:30:17.800 --> 0:30:20.120
<v Speaker 2>of software we pay for it does a thing. And

0:30:19.520 --> 0:30:22.040
<v Speaker 2>if it was it was ceiling from everyone and burn

0:30:22.280 --> 0:30:25.760
<v Speaker 2>down like it's just it. It only makes sense if

0:30:25.760 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 2>it was cheap, and it's the literal opposite. If this

0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:32.720
<v Speaker 2>was like cheap, like cheap CPU driven shit, and fine, sure,

0:30:32.760 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 2>but it's like I one day, I think we're going

0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:37.160
<v Speaker 2>to find out how expensive this is and it's going

0:30:37.200 --> 0:30:39.560
<v Speaker 2>to scare the shit out of people. But you know what,

0:30:39.600 --> 0:30:41.240
<v Speaker 2>that that actually makes me want to move to a

0:30:41.240 --> 0:30:43.880
<v Speaker 2>specific post. You made your scaling laws posts. Let's talk

0:30:43.880 --> 0:30:46.720
<v Speaker 2>about this. So you were a booster at one point

0:30:46.760 --> 0:30:49.160
<v Speaker 2>and you read the stuff short, but you wrote a

0:30:49.280 --> 0:30:52.040
<v Speaker 2>very eloquent piece about the scaling laws about how and

0:30:52.120 --> 0:30:54.280
<v Speaker 2>I've tried to work this into my work, but it's

0:30:55.440 --> 0:30:57.200
<v Speaker 2>we can have I don't know if i'd call it empathy,

0:30:57.240 --> 0:30:59.560
<v Speaker 2>but some understanding of how we got here with the

0:30:59.600 --> 0:31:03.040
<v Speaker 2>AI bubble, because when GPT four came out, it does

0:31:03.080 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 2>seem like tech people had a reason to be excited.

0:31:06.440 --> 0:31:10.720
<v Speaker 2>I was so excited. What was exciting? It was awesome.

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:12.800
<v Speaker 3>You talked to it and it was just like this.

0:31:13.680 --> 0:31:15.760
<v Speaker 3>I would ask it coding problems that I found. So

0:31:15.840 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 3>I was still a teacher at the time, and I

0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 3>was like, oh, man, like I have the APE Computer

0:31:20.080 --> 0:31:22.400
<v Speaker 3>Science exam coming up, and I need to like come

0:31:22.480 --> 0:31:24.920
<v Speaker 3>up with practice problems. And I was like generators out

0:31:24.960 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 3>of thirty practice problems, I obviously read them over it

0:31:27.280 --> 0:31:29.120
<v Speaker 3>to my due diligence, and I, you know, I tried

0:31:29.160 --> 0:31:31.120
<v Speaker 3>the I did a good job putting them together. But

0:31:31.160 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 3>it's like these are decent, Yeah, these are decent practice problems,

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:36.680
<v Speaker 3>and like this is this is useful software. I did

0:31:36.760 --> 0:31:40.320
<v Speaker 3>not understand how expensive it was, but there was there's

0:31:40.320 --> 0:31:43.280
<v Speaker 3>a the number of things that would like the hell.

0:31:43.280 --> 0:31:45.920
<v Speaker 2>Will also give you, so the read the listeners don't

0:31:45.960 --> 0:31:49.520
<v Speaker 2>get mad. To be clear, GPT four was twenty twenty three. Yeah,

0:31:49.560 --> 0:31:52.360
<v Speaker 2>we had we were very early in understanding. I mean

0:31:52.360 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 2>the environmental damage was there, really sure, but they were

0:31:54.760 --> 0:31:57.520
<v Speaker 2>also promisingly effects. But it took a full year until

0:31:57.560 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 2>June twenty twenty four when they it came out the

0:32:00.400 --> 0:32:02.800
<v Speaker 2>Open Eye would burn five billion dollars. So like early on,

0:32:02.880 --> 0:32:05.360
<v Speaker 2>we didn't really know the costs either. And if I'm

0:32:05.400 --> 0:32:08.200
<v Speaker 2>sure someone will find a fucking link anyway, keep going.

0:32:08.200 --> 0:32:08.360
<v Speaker 4>Well.

0:32:08.400 --> 0:32:11.280
<v Speaker 3>So I was I was pumped up because I saw

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:15.240
<v Speaker 3>GPT three, was I I you know, I'm a tech person,

0:32:15.240 --> 0:32:17.320
<v Speaker 3>and so I remember seeing early demos a GPT three

0:32:17.400 --> 0:32:21.400
<v Speaker 3>and it was like interesting novelty. It would say stupid

0:32:21.400 --> 0:32:22.960
<v Speaker 3>things and it was kind of cool that it could

0:32:22.960 --> 0:32:25.960
<v Speaker 3>even generate sentences. That was awesome. Three point five came

0:32:25.960 --> 0:32:29.040
<v Speaker 3>out and GPT whatever chat GPT. It's like, that's pretty cool. Yeah,

0:32:29.080 --> 0:32:31.480
<v Speaker 3>I can use it as a search thing and it

0:32:31.520 --> 0:32:33.959
<v Speaker 3>says that I'm good, which I like when people say

0:32:34.000 --> 0:32:35.880
<v Speaker 3>I'm good? Do you like when people say you're good?

0:32:36.000 --> 0:32:38.400
<v Speaker 2>Ed doesn't happen very much, but I think, I, you

0:32:38.480 --> 0:32:41.120
<v Speaker 2>know what, I'll be honest, I knit that there's something

0:32:41.320 --> 0:32:45.160
<v Speaker 2>I think mentally about me where all of the anthwerpomorphization

0:32:45.280 --> 0:32:47.600
<v Speaker 2>pisses not even pissed milf. I'm just like, okay, shut up,

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:49.959
<v Speaker 2>shut up, shut up. Yeah, it was bullied too much

0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 2>as a kid that like, confidences don't work on me anymore.

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 2>I do want to write a.

0:32:53.320 --> 0:32:54.560
<v Speaker 3>I do want to write a thing at some point

0:32:54.560 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 3>about how if it wasn't chat GPT, if it was

0:32:57.120 --> 0:33:00.720
<v Speaker 3>like box get text yeah, and there was no inn promorphization,

0:33:00.960 --> 0:33:02.720
<v Speaker 3>if it was just like this is a thing that

0:33:02.760 --> 0:33:06.320
<v Speaker 3>can generate usable or interesting or like code for you,

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:09.240
<v Speaker 3>but there's no chat element to it, that would actually

0:33:09.240 --> 0:33:11.440
<v Speaker 3>make it a lot better to me, like the answer

0:33:11.480 --> 0:33:14.120
<v Speaker 3>pomorphization of like, oh you're talking to a person that

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:15.320
<v Speaker 3>really makes me mad.

0:33:15.480 --> 0:33:17.560
<v Speaker 2>Yes, And also I find every time it goes you

0:33:17.640 --> 0:33:19.400
<v Speaker 2>got it, you got to just shut up, shut up,

0:33:19.440 --> 0:33:20.000
<v Speaker 2>shut there.

0:33:20.120 --> 0:33:22.040
<v Speaker 3>So in one of these NFL ads, literally I don't

0:33:22.080 --> 0:33:24.080
<v Speaker 3>know if they're like doing a nod to the haters

0:33:24.160 --> 0:33:28.440
<v Speaker 3>or what, but they like, take, we're going, we're going a.

0:33:28.440 --> 0:33:30.600
<v Speaker 2>Couple, make sure the link is in the world.

0:33:30.640 --> 0:33:32.480
<v Speaker 3>Well yeah, no, there's like four of them. Hopefully they

0:33:32.480 --> 0:33:35.240
<v Speaker 3>aren't know you. But uh, it's like a guy doing

0:33:35.400 --> 0:33:38.920
<v Speaker 3>he's trying to do pull ups and it's like here's

0:33:38.920 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 3>your pull up plan, Like you need to do one

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:42.560
<v Speaker 3>pull up and then you should do two pull ups,

0:33:42.640 --> 0:33:44.760
<v Speaker 3>and then you should do four or five pull ups,

0:33:44.800 --> 0:33:46.280
<v Speaker 3>and like, I'm actually you will be able to do

0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:48.960
<v Speaker 3>several pull ups and then at the end it's like

0:33:49.000 --> 0:33:49.440
<v Speaker 3>you got this.

0:33:50.800 --> 0:33:53.760
<v Speaker 2>Okay. If so the plan is you do more pull

0:33:53.840 --> 0:33:56.240
<v Speaker 2>ups of a time, you could probably just work that

0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:58.840
<v Speaker 2>out by doing doing pull ups with text in it. Mate,

0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:04.000
<v Speaker 2>I nobody said you got this, but yeah, exactly. Actually no,

0:34:04.160 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 2>my friend Mac, when I text him about pull ups,

0:34:06.520 --> 0:34:08.840
<v Speaker 2>he says much, He's like, you fucking got this. I

0:34:08.880 --> 0:34:12.320
<v Speaker 2>think he may have. Literally, it's just that's the commercial.

0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:14.960
<v Speaker 2>That's the commercial. That's the commercial. But it's the commercial.

0:34:16.040 --> 0:34:18.759
<v Speaker 2>People watching the NFL and they're like, oh shit, why

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:21.120
<v Speaker 2>should I use chat GPT. Oh it's gonna tell me

0:34:21.120 --> 0:34:23.960
<v Speaker 2>a pull up plan where I increased from one to several,

0:34:24.120 --> 0:34:25.800
<v Speaker 2>one to seven. You got this? You got this? I

0:34:25.840 --> 0:34:26.720
<v Speaker 2>mean I didn't pause.

0:34:26.800 --> 0:34:29.160
<v Speaker 3>I mean maybe I did not pause the commercial, but

0:34:29.800 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 3>I it could it could have said some really interesting

0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:34.920
<v Speaker 3>stuff in the middle. I don't know, but the bullet,

0:34:34.920 --> 0:34:36.239
<v Speaker 3>because it has to have a bullet of the list,

0:34:36.840 --> 0:34:38.920
<v Speaker 3>I am pretty sure and I might be lying, and

0:34:38.960 --> 0:34:40.840
<v Speaker 3>so whatever, you know, send me some hate mail, but

0:34:40.920 --> 0:34:42.840
<v Speaker 3>like I'm pretty sure it said like do a couple

0:34:43.120 --> 0:34:45.640
<v Speaker 3>wait a week, you know, drink a protein shake and like,

0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:47.000
<v Speaker 3>you know, do a couple more.

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:50.320
<v Speaker 2>It's just Google Search, except it makes up the results.

0:34:50.360 --> 0:34:52.399
<v Speaker 2>That's all three fucking years.

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:54.719
<v Speaker 3>So I have a new idea, which is that it's

0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:58.000
<v Speaker 3>Yahoo Answers but the person has a lobotomy and was like,

0:34:58.160 --> 0:34:59.080
<v Speaker 3>it just did cocaine.

0:34:59.160 --> 0:35:02.760
<v Speaker 2>That's who answers. Yeah, I want it. That's just Yah

0:35:03.040 --> 0:35:06.000
<v Speaker 2>or Cora. But it's like but it's like light speed, yeah,

0:35:06.080 --> 0:35:08.960
<v Speaker 2>like the fast. Well Cora now is GPT like they

0:35:09.040 --> 0:35:11.879
<v Speaker 2>did because Adam DeAngelo is on the board of open Ai.

0:35:12.560 --> 0:35:15.560
<v Speaker 2>So it's just got GPT answers and GPT questions now.

0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:32.160
<v Speaker 2>So cool. But early on it was exciting and there

0:35:32.160 --> 0:35:35.120
<v Speaker 2>were these scaling laws walk me through through the listeners

0:35:35.120 --> 0:35:36.280
<v Speaker 2>who might not understand.

0:35:36.680 --> 0:35:39.640
<v Speaker 3>So yeah, so the post that I wrote, which very

0:35:39.760 --> 0:35:41.919
<v Speaker 3>nicely called eloquence. So if I could pay you twenty

0:35:41.920 --> 0:35:43.640
<v Speaker 3>hours a month to kind of just send me stuff

0:35:43.640 --> 0:35:44.480
<v Speaker 3>like you've got this.

0:35:45.160 --> 0:35:47.200
<v Speaker 2>I'll just I'll email those you got.

0:35:46.960 --> 0:35:49.279
<v Speaker 3>This, Okay, that's great, I'll put it on a schedule. Yeah,

0:35:49.280 --> 0:35:50.719
<v Speaker 3>if you could just do that, I'll pay you twenty

0:35:50.760 --> 0:35:54.640
<v Speaker 3>bucks a month. No, but so so there was an

0:35:54.680 --> 0:35:56.840
<v Speaker 3>idea that if you increase the size of the models.

0:35:56.840 --> 0:35:59.320
<v Speaker 3>I'm not an AI that's right, I'm an AI scientist,

0:35:59.320 --> 0:36:00.719
<v Speaker 3>and so in this post I said, I'm not an

0:36:00.719 --> 0:36:03.400
<v Speaker 3>AI expert or an economist. But like, you look at

0:36:03.400 --> 0:36:05.480
<v Speaker 3>this chart, this chart that they had and you can

0:36:05.520 --> 0:36:07.840
<v Speaker 3>link the thing. And I actually think I cited my sources,

0:36:08.440 --> 0:36:12.160
<v Speaker 3>the original like paper basically about the scaling laws. They

0:36:12.200 --> 0:36:15.359
<v Speaker 3>have this chart that is incredible. It is like, make

0:36:15.440 --> 0:36:19.400
<v Speaker 3>model ten times bigger, get the nice jump in performance.

0:36:19.480 --> 0:36:21.920
<v Speaker 3>Make model ten times bigger, get nice jump in performance.

0:36:22.760 --> 0:36:24.440
<v Speaker 3>And then the idea is like, okay, well if we

0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:26.560
<v Speaker 3>just keep making it ten times bigger, we will get

0:36:27.239 --> 0:36:29.040
<v Speaker 3>who knows how good they can get? Yeah, and it

0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:31.480
<v Speaker 3>kind and it did work, like it was working for

0:36:31.520 --> 0:36:33.960
<v Speaker 3>a minute. That's how they went, to the best of

0:36:33.960 --> 0:36:36.279
<v Speaker 3>my knowledge, that's how they went from three point five

0:36:36.320 --> 0:36:36.640
<v Speaker 3>to four.

0:36:36.680 --> 0:36:37.160
<v Speaker 2>I mean there's a.

0:36:37.200 --> 0:36:39.200
<v Speaker 3>Number of they have smart people over there, yeah, Like

0:36:39.239 --> 0:36:41.359
<v Speaker 3>I mean, we can be honest that like they're doing

0:36:41.360 --> 0:36:41.960
<v Speaker 3>clever stuff.

0:36:42.120 --> 0:36:45.319
<v Speaker 2>Small is also a very subjective. Sure, these are people

0:36:45.320 --> 0:36:47.160
<v Speaker 2>who want experts in mathematics.

0:36:47.360 --> 0:36:50.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they're doing hard, real math and they're getting results.

0:36:50.880 --> 0:36:52.319
<v Speaker 3>Like the fact that it can do what it does

0:36:52.400 --> 0:36:52.880
<v Speaker 3>is incredible.

0:36:52.920 --> 0:36:54.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's kind of crazy that they can do it.

0:36:55.680 --> 0:36:57.440
<v Speaker 3>If that was all they were saying, If that was

0:36:57.440 --> 0:36:58.840
<v Speaker 3>all they were saying, if they were just like, we

0:36:59.000 --> 0:37:02.480
<v Speaker 3>did research, We've created this incredible piece of technology that

0:37:02.480 --> 0:37:04.640
<v Speaker 3>feels almost alien at this point, I mean, or at

0:37:04.640 --> 0:37:06.719
<v Speaker 3>the point when we discovered it. Now it feels like,

0:37:06.800 --> 0:37:08.239
<v Speaker 3>you know, just we take it for granted that it's

0:37:08.280 --> 0:37:10.959
<v Speaker 3>kind of this trash thing. But like at the moment

0:37:11.040 --> 0:37:12.680
<v Speaker 3>when it was released, it was like, oh my gosh,

0:37:12.680 --> 0:37:16.080
<v Speaker 3>like this is actually crazy. Yeah. And the idea was

0:37:16.080 --> 0:37:18.600
<v Speaker 3>we make it ten times bigger and we will get

0:37:18.640 --> 0:37:21.839
<v Speaker 3>a similar jump in performance, and that is GPT four

0:37:21.840 --> 0:37:24.400
<v Speaker 3>point five. It's just like a footnote in history.

0:37:24.680 --> 0:37:26.320
<v Speaker 2>Oh that was that was released.

0:37:26.400 --> 0:37:29.719
<v Speaker 3>And sam Altman was just like, uh, yeah, well we

0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:30.600
<v Speaker 3>made a big model.

0:37:30.640 --> 0:37:33.160
<v Speaker 2>It was the best announcement ever. I'm actually gonna put it,

0:37:33.160 --> 0:37:36.520
<v Speaker 2>but from what I remember, miss miss Clammy Sammy was like, yeah,

0:37:36.560 --> 0:37:38.240
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's I'm just gonna do it from memory.

0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:42.040
<v Speaker 2>I it's it was like, yeah, good news. It's really

0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:46.200
<v Speaker 2>good for writing bad news. It's really compute intensive. And

0:37:46.200 --> 0:37:48.000
<v Speaker 2>I was like yay.

0:37:48.080 --> 0:37:50.719
<v Speaker 3>And in that announcement I did quote this in the

0:37:50.760 --> 0:37:52.800
<v Speaker 3>post because I don't want to make stuff up and

0:37:52.920 --> 0:37:56.279
<v Speaker 3>like whatever, but they literally said, with each ten x,

0:37:56.360 --> 0:37:59.240
<v Speaker 3>with each order of magnitude, you know, ten x increase

0:37:59.280 --> 0:38:02.160
<v Speaker 3>in model size, we will get an improvement in performance.

0:38:02.360 --> 0:38:05.080
<v Speaker 2>Yes, but like, where's the like worth the big improvement?

0:38:05.320 --> 0:38:06.720
<v Speaker 2>Like it's gone? I don't.

0:38:07.000 --> 0:38:09.640
<v Speaker 3>I think that was them. I think that was the moment.

0:38:09.680 --> 0:38:11.759
<v Speaker 3>I don't know what day they announced four point five,

0:38:11.800 --> 0:38:14.799
<v Speaker 3>but I think every into twenty that was the that

0:38:14.960 --> 0:38:17.040
<v Speaker 3>was a game over. Yeah, and then they did the

0:38:17.040 --> 0:38:19.279
<v Speaker 3>reasoning stuff, and the reasoning stuff was the reasoning.

0:38:19.040 --> 0:38:21.920
<v Speaker 2>Thing was September twenty twenty four. And my favorite thing

0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:26.120
<v Speaker 2>about that was reading all the tech press writing about

0:38:26.120 --> 0:38:27.719
<v Speaker 2>it and being like, can any of you tell me

0:38:27.760 --> 0:38:29.640
<v Speaker 2>what this does? Can any of you tell me why

0:38:29.640 --> 0:38:31.719
<v Speaker 2>this matters to this day? And I'm, by the way,

0:38:32.040 --> 0:38:34.520
<v Speaker 2>I'm not. Actually, it took a minute for me to

0:38:34.560 --> 0:38:36.120
<v Speaker 2>work out what the fuck? And it's just a hat

0:38:36.160 --> 0:38:37.799
<v Speaker 2>on a hat thing. It's like, instead of spitting out

0:38:37.800 --> 0:38:40.080
<v Speaker 2>an output, it goes what would the output be? Oh,

0:38:40.160 --> 0:38:42.920
<v Speaker 2>I will I will go through it and choose these steps,

0:38:42.960 --> 0:38:45.760
<v Speaker 2>which is it's test time compute and it's.

0:38:45.600 --> 0:38:48.280
<v Speaker 3>Mantle and I could have had a moment of reflection

0:38:48.400 --> 0:38:51.200
<v Speaker 3>when the reasoning models came out where because I was.

0:38:51.120 --> 0:38:53.880
<v Speaker 2>Like, okay, it was still the height of the fever, though.

0:38:53.760 --> 0:38:56.160
<v Speaker 3>I know, but I so I asked it a hard question.

0:38:56.440 --> 0:38:58.719
<v Speaker 3>So I did a maths degree and a computer science

0:38:58.760 --> 0:39:01.840
<v Speaker 3>degree in right, So I was like, take this topic

0:39:02.000 --> 0:39:06.719
<v Speaker 3>from sophomore year abstract algebra and do this like visualization

0:39:07.000 --> 0:39:08.719
<v Speaker 3>of the thing, right, And I took one of the

0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:10.879
<v Speaker 3>early reasoning models, which everyone is like, oh, oh one,

0:39:10.960 --> 0:39:13.319
<v Speaker 3>so sure, because it's like you have a PhD level

0:39:13.320 --> 0:39:16.560
<v Speaker 3>thing in the pocket. Okay, so PhD level thing should

0:39:16.560 --> 0:39:19.840
<v Speaker 3>be able to take real sophomore math sophomore and college

0:39:19.840 --> 0:39:21.319
<v Speaker 3>math concept and visualize it.

0:39:21.400 --> 0:39:23.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you should be able to do that. And then

0:39:23.040 --> 0:39:26.759
<v Speaker 2>it didn't, and then I kind of just did it.

0:39:26.840 --> 0:39:29.759
<v Speaker 2>I was kind of just like, oh, I guess I hmm.

0:39:30.480 --> 0:39:32.680
<v Speaker 2>And then I just didn't think about it.

0:39:32.719 --> 0:39:35.319
<v Speaker 3>And then I just kept on kind of hoping that

0:39:35.400 --> 0:39:36.560
<v Speaker 3>something exciting would happen.

0:39:36.719 --> 0:39:39.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I can a bit of empathy here, I

0:39:39.719 --> 0:39:41.759
<v Speaker 2>get if you're and at that time, so it was

0:39:41.800 --> 0:39:44.719
<v Speaker 2>September twenty twenty four. A month later, they'd raise six

0:39:44.719 --> 0:39:46.960
<v Speaker 2>point six billion dollars to get a credit facility of

0:39:47.000 --> 0:39:50.040
<v Speaker 2>four billion dollars. Like they it looked like open Aye

0:39:50.080 --> 0:39:53.319
<v Speaker 2>was going places. Unless you're like me and you've read

0:39:53.360 --> 0:39:56.680
<v Speaker 2>every single possible financial thing you can get hand on,

0:39:56.760 --> 0:39:59.399
<v Speaker 2>and you've obsessed with the numbers. But I can get

0:39:59.440 --> 0:40:02.080
<v Speaker 2>why someone it was stick within the booster ring might

0:40:02.160 --> 0:40:06.000
<v Speaker 2>not immediately be like fuck because yeah, I don't know,

0:40:06.080 --> 0:40:08.080
<v Speaker 2>people hadn't built things of reasoning, and it did actually

0:40:08.160 --> 0:40:10.760
<v Speaker 2>take a few months for people to work out products

0:40:10.760 --> 0:40:11.320
<v Speaker 2>with reasoning.

0:40:11.800 --> 0:40:14.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, and whatever. I mean, I don't know

0:40:14.200 --> 0:40:16.280
<v Speaker 3>what the improvements were. And they improved on the benchmarks.

0:40:16.280 --> 0:40:16.719
<v Speaker 2>That's fine.

0:40:16.760 --> 0:40:20.080
<v Speaker 3>It's kind of like and I'm sure that the coding

0:40:20.080 --> 0:40:21.279
<v Speaker 3>results are marginally better.

0:40:21.760 --> 0:40:23.000
<v Speaker 2>That's the thing. Though marginally.

0:40:23.120 --> 0:40:25.839
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's always margin, but now it's marginally. But that's

0:40:25.880 --> 0:40:28.840
<v Speaker 3>the thing. Three to four was sick, huge jump.

0:40:29.000 --> 0:40:29.600
<v Speaker 2>That was sick.

0:40:29.719 --> 0:40:31.960
<v Speaker 3>That was not marginal. If you had, if you had,

0:40:32.040 --> 0:40:33.800
<v Speaker 3>if your lights were on, if you were paying attention

0:40:33.840 --> 0:40:35.319
<v Speaker 3>and you typed a thing into three and you typed

0:40:35.360 --> 0:40:37.120
<v Speaker 3>a thing into four, you should be impressed.

0:40:37.120 --> 0:40:39.359
<v Speaker 2>Oh, I remember the jump. I wasn't doing better off

0:40:39.400 --> 0:40:41.160
<v Speaker 2>alone at the time, didn't do that until February twenty

0:40:41.200 --> 0:40:43.640
<v Speaker 2>twenty four. But I remember being like, oh that'sk but

0:40:43.719 --> 0:40:46.960
<v Speaker 2>I remember just being like okay, now I was I

0:40:47.040 --> 0:40:48.840
<v Speaker 2>was it was like, wow, we made a computer do

0:40:48.880 --> 0:40:49.839
<v Speaker 2>this and this cool?

0:40:49.960 --> 0:40:52.720
<v Speaker 3>Okay now yeah, And so like I was vaguely aware

0:40:52.760 --> 0:40:54.560
<v Speaker 3>of the of the line chart that I mentioned in

0:40:54.560 --> 0:40:57.040
<v Speaker 3>that post, and so I was like, oh, like all

0:40:57.080 --> 0:40:59.120
<v Speaker 3>they had to do it was like it is a

0:40:59.160 --> 0:41:02.600
<v Speaker 3>freight train toward like actual really cool thing because it's like,

0:41:02.800 --> 0:41:05.600
<v Speaker 3>just make it bigger. And therefore if we just need

0:41:05.640 --> 0:41:07.400
<v Speaker 3>to make it bigger, then we do need more compute

0:41:07.440 --> 0:41:08.520
<v Speaker 3>and the reasoning models.

0:41:08.680 --> 0:41:10.960
<v Speaker 2>Would you finally got another way to throw compute because

0:41:10.960 --> 0:41:13.759
<v Speaker 2>it's the training compute and well compute to generate and

0:41:13.800 --> 0:41:15.640
<v Speaker 2>on so test time compute. Wow.

0:41:15.920 --> 0:41:21.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so like that's that's where the freight train's over. Yeah,

0:41:21.200 --> 0:41:23.319
<v Speaker 3>and I and I just four point five came out,

0:41:23.400 --> 0:41:25.600
<v Speaker 3>didn't really think about it that hard. They started doing

0:41:25.640 --> 0:41:27.080
<v Speaker 3>the reasoning stuff and it's like, okay, well they have

0:41:27.080 --> 0:41:29.200
<v Speaker 3>marginal improvements and they say it did really good on

0:41:29.239 --> 0:41:31.759
<v Speaker 3>a math Olympiad or whatever, and like that's that's interesting.

0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:35.640
<v Speaker 3>But but then it's like another whole year goes by

0:41:36.280 --> 0:41:39.120
<v Speaker 3>and then and then GPT five comes out and like

0:41:39.200 --> 0:41:40.319
<v Speaker 3>what what was that?

0:41:40.520 --> 0:41:43.200
<v Speaker 2>It was nothing and it was so strange.

0:41:42.840 --> 0:41:45.080
<v Speaker 3>And so that that was the final So when I'm

0:41:45.080 --> 0:41:46.840
<v Speaker 3>talking about my confidence and the guns, that cured me

0:41:46.880 --> 0:41:49.919
<v Speaker 3>of my boosterism. Like I started reading your stuff about

0:41:49.960 --> 0:41:51.840
<v Speaker 3>it being expensive. Yeah, but then I was like, this

0:41:51.960 --> 0:41:55.480
<v Speaker 3>is interesting. I've started reading this guy Ed's posts. GPT

0:41:55.640 --> 0:41:58.000
<v Speaker 3>five is coming out next week. I wonder if this

0:41:58.000 --> 0:41:59.680
<v Speaker 3>guy is going to have an extraordinary amount of egg

0:41:59.719 --> 0:42:02.320
<v Speaker 3>on his face. Yeah, like you might have been scared.

0:42:02.640 --> 0:42:05.760
<v Speaker 2>I wasn't because I have the stonewell of the Buddha.

0:42:05.840 --> 0:42:10.359
<v Speaker 2>But it's I was also just like when it when

0:42:10.440 --> 0:42:13.000
<v Speaker 2>reasoning was coming up, going back to twenty twenty three,

0:42:13.239 --> 0:42:15.880
<v Speaker 2>they did was some real shit. The rumors around that

0:42:16.320 --> 0:42:19.440
<v Speaker 2>Q star, Yeah, it was like wit. The reason Samuton

0:42:19.520 --> 0:42:21.880
<v Speaker 2>got fired was they found a terrifying new AI they

0:42:21.960 --> 0:42:24.080
<v Speaker 2>kind of like drummed up. There were leaks about it.

0:42:24.120 --> 0:42:26.759
<v Speaker 2>There were leaks about levels of intelligence. There was all

0:42:26.760 --> 0:42:29.640
<v Speaker 2>of these big leaks. There was really no leaking around

0:42:29.680 --> 0:42:32.520
<v Speaker 2>GPT five other than a Wall Street Journal story towards

0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:34.799
<v Speaker 2>the end of twenty twenty four where it was like, yeah,

0:42:34.840 --> 0:42:37.000
<v Speaker 2>it's costing a shit ton of money. It isn't working

0:42:37.160 --> 0:42:40.000
<v Speaker 2>very well, like the leaks. The reason I because the

0:42:40.040 --> 0:42:41.719
<v Speaker 2>thing is, I mean this to this day. If I

0:42:41.760 --> 0:42:43.560
<v Speaker 2>am wrong about all this, I don't think I am.

0:42:43.719 --> 0:42:46.640
<v Speaker 2>I will admit it. I will explain why. But GPT

0:42:46.719 --> 0:42:50.080
<v Speaker 2>five I wasn't particularly worried about because it did I

0:42:50.160 --> 0:42:53.279
<v Speaker 2>could not fucking tell you what the what it was

0:42:53.280 --> 0:42:55.480
<v Speaker 2>going to be like, no one really if you go

0:42:55.600 --> 0:42:57.520
<v Speaker 2>back to twenty twenty three and you look up GPT

0:42:57.680 --> 0:43:00.800
<v Speaker 2>five stuff, the shit that people are saying is insane.

0:43:00.840 --> 0:43:02.800
<v Speaker 2>That was someone saying it would be completely autonomous and

0:43:02.840 --> 0:43:06.319
<v Speaker 2>it would turn weapons systems against people. There's bonk as ship.

0:43:06.880 --> 0:43:08.600
<v Speaker 2>But getting up to it, yeah, it was kind of

0:43:08.600 --> 0:43:11.400
<v Speaker 2>a proving point, but it was just another fucking model.

0:43:11.560 --> 0:43:14.560
<v Speaker 3>Well, and so that you and I had started exchanging

0:43:14.560 --> 0:43:17.200
<v Speaker 3>emails because whatever, I sorry podcast, and I said them

0:43:17.200 --> 0:43:18.600
<v Speaker 3>on my post over and it was it was it

0:43:18.640 --> 0:43:21.000
<v Speaker 3>was interesting talking to you and then I I when

0:43:21.040 --> 0:43:23.880
<v Speaker 3>that when announcement was going on, I emailed you and

0:43:23.960 --> 0:43:25.640
<v Speaker 3>you got a lot of emails coming through. But I said,

0:43:26.040 --> 0:43:29.560
<v Speaker 3>ed ed ed ed ed ed ed. They announced paywalled

0:43:29.719 --> 0:43:30.440
<v Speaker 3>chat colors.

0:43:30.840 --> 0:43:33.600
<v Speaker 2>Yes, I go through. No, no, I remember this but go

0:43:33.640 --> 0:43:37.200
<v Speaker 2>through this. In the announcement of GPT five, the biggest

0:43:37.239 --> 0:43:39.960
<v Speaker 2>thing ever, They're like, for our paid subscribers, you can

0:43:40.000 --> 0:43:43.840
<v Speaker 2>turn your chat yellow, which they still haven't released.

0:43:43.920 --> 0:43:46.799
<v Speaker 3>They still haven't released that. I don't I'm not I'm

0:43:46.840 --> 0:43:49.719
<v Speaker 3>not a paying subscribers. I've never seen a yellow.

0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:52.319
<v Speaker 2>I'm paying for chat JPT plus. See you can turn

0:43:52.360 --> 0:43:53.759
<v Speaker 2>it yellow. I want to see if I can do this,

0:43:53.840 --> 0:44:03.640
<v Speaker 2>live on it yellow, pink, green, change my window color well, GPT,

0:44:03.880 --> 0:44:06.480
<v Speaker 2>GPT No, I'm going to ask it because it's fucking insane.

0:44:06.480 --> 0:44:08.800
<v Speaker 2>If this doesn't searching the web, yes, you can change

0:44:08.920 --> 0:44:13.080
<v Speaker 2>they did well. They did well. Can you though? On

0:44:13.120 --> 0:44:16.279
<v Speaker 2>some platforms you can change the accent color. God, this

0:44:16.360 --> 0:44:19.319
<v Speaker 2>fucking stinks. The fact that you can't ask a product

0:44:19.640 --> 0:44:20.560
<v Speaker 2>what it does.

0:44:21.000 --> 0:44:24.719
<v Speaker 3>Well, if you if you can't ask, like, I don't know,

0:44:24.800 --> 0:44:26.520
<v Speaker 3>what's it good? But I mean, if you can't ask,

0:44:26.560 --> 0:44:28.319
<v Speaker 3>if you can't type into a Google doc in two

0:44:28.360 --> 0:44:31.440
<v Speaker 3>thousand and seven, what does Google docs do? That's unsurprising.

0:44:31.480 --> 0:44:33.520
<v Speaker 2>But that's because Google Docs is a place to write woods.

0:44:33.560 --> 0:44:34.520
<v Speaker 2>This is meant to answer the thing.

0:44:34.600 --> 0:44:36.399
<v Speaker 3>Well, no, that's what I'm saying. But it's like they've

0:44:36.680 --> 0:44:39.359
<v Speaker 3>they claimed that it's this all you know, all all

0:44:39.400 --> 0:44:42.040
<v Speaker 3>knowing omniscion thing and it cannot tell you how to turn.

0:44:42.400 --> 0:44:43.719
<v Speaker 3>Shouldn't it have just done it for you?

0:44:43.840 --> 0:44:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:44:44.080 --> 0:44:44.960
<v Speaker 2>H like give me the bus.

0:44:45.239 --> 0:44:47.880
<v Speaker 3>It should have it should have said edit, great question,

0:44:47.960 --> 0:44:48.959
<v Speaker 3>would you like it to be blue?

0:44:49.040 --> 0:44:49.400
<v Speaker 2>Yellow?

0:44:49.480 --> 0:44:54.160
<v Speaker 3>Pin or or chars are orange? And and like? But

0:44:54.440 --> 0:44:56.680
<v Speaker 3>where was the But where was That's what it should

0:44:56.680 --> 0:44:57.000
<v Speaker 3>have done.

0:44:57.040 --> 0:44:59.160
<v Speaker 2>And also the idea that that was one of the

0:44:59.160 --> 0:45:01.759
<v Speaker 2>announcements is very very cool. I love the idea that, like,

0:45:01.840 --> 0:45:03.960
<v Speaker 2>it's the biggest moment ever and you can now make

0:45:04.040 --> 0:45:08.160
<v Speaker 2>chair GPT brown. It's insane. It's insane.

0:45:08.680 --> 0:45:12.120
<v Speaker 3>Brown is one of the supportive colors. Probably not next year. Yeah,

0:45:12.200 --> 0:45:15.000
<v Speaker 3>that that relies on the compute actually the oracle deal.

0:45:15.280 --> 0:45:18.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah it's brown, I'm brown. Oh my god. It's so

0:45:18.760 --> 0:45:21.120
<v Speaker 2>cool that we've built our entire economy on top of

0:45:21.160 --> 0:45:24.440
<v Speaker 2>this as well. But but the GPT five thing is

0:45:24.800 --> 0:45:28.919
<v Speaker 2>it was such a weird moment because watching everyone try

0:45:28.960 --> 0:45:30.960
<v Speaker 2>and be excited about it was really good. There was

0:45:31.000 --> 0:45:33.680
<v Speaker 2>the whole THEO white weight, not THEO weight, and that's

0:45:34.000 --> 0:45:39.239
<v Speaker 2>the information THEO there's this fucking guy. Now I'm gonna

0:45:39.280 --> 0:45:41.160
<v Speaker 2>I really shouldn't have blanked. I've mentioned him. He did

0:45:41.200 --> 0:45:44.040
<v Speaker 2>a whole thing about GPT five. I'm gonna look this

0:45:44.120 --> 0:45:47.600
<v Speaker 2>up live on this professional show, where he did a

0:45:47.640 --> 0:45:50.840
<v Speaker 2>whole thing saying GPT five is the most amazing thing ever,

0:45:51.680 --> 0:45:54.200
<v Speaker 2>and and then had to be like, yeah, actually yes,

0:45:54.239 --> 0:45:57.000
<v Speaker 2>THEO THEO Brown. There we go, THEO Brown. He did

0:45:57.000 --> 0:45:59.600
<v Speaker 2>the thing saying I'm scared of how good GPT five is.

0:45:59.680 --> 0:46:02.400
<v Speaker 2>Then a week laters like actually it's not the same

0:46:02.400 --> 0:46:05.799
<v Speaker 2>as when I used it, which is craziest that that

0:46:05.880 --> 0:46:09.120
<v Speaker 2>should have been a scandal, Like why was that the case?

0:46:09.160 --> 0:46:12.319
<v Speaker 2>But everyone just kind of moved on. But I I

0:46:12.440 --> 0:46:17.960
<v Speaker 2>don't know what women to be excited about next GPT six. Well, yeah,

0:46:18.280 --> 0:46:20.280
<v Speaker 2>it's just But also, what's that meant to? Because JPT

0:46:20.360 --> 0:46:23.120
<v Speaker 2>five was this weird kind of like myth in the future.

0:46:23.120 --> 0:46:25.319
<v Speaker 2>It's like when we reach this, everything will get better.

0:46:25.560 --> 0:46:28.520
<v Speaker 2>But now it's like we're gonna get Claudes on it five.

0:46:28.840 --> 0:46:30.920
<v Speaker 3>I guess yeah, whatever, I mean, you're gonna get the

0:46:30.920 --> 0:46:32.960
<v Speaker 3>next one. But that's the thing is like, if it's

0:46:33.000 --> 0:46:37.239
<v Speaker 3>just continued marginal improvement, what am I? Yeah, what what

0:46:37.239 --> 0:46:39.080
<v Speaker 3>are we doing? It doesn't make it doesn't make me.

0:46:39.280 --> 0:46:41.000
<v Speaker 3>That did not make me excited. And yes, it can

0:46:41.040 --> 0:46:44.000
<v Speaker 3>save software engineers typing time and whatever. I mean, if

0:46:44.040 --> 0:46:45.520
<v Speaker 3>you know what you're doing, you can get a lot down.

0:46:46.000 --> 0:46:48.319
<v Speaker 3>I guess that's fine. If that's the way you like

0:46:48.360 --> 0:46:49.880
<v Speaker 3>to work, If you like to type stuff in and

0:46:49.920 --> 0:46:52.480
<v Speaker 3>wait on moting screens and get your code out and

0:46:52.520 --> 0:46:54.400
<v Speaker 3>review it, that's a way to do programming.

0:46:54.440 --> 0:46:58.680
<v Speaker 2>That's fine. Yeah, And it's it's literally fine.

0:46:58.680 --> 0:47:00.799
<v Speaker 3>I'm actually saying like it sounds super sarcastic, but like

0:47:00.800 --> 0:47:01.560
<v Speaker 3>that's literally fine.

0:47:01.600 --> 0:47:04.560
<v Speaker 2>No, but that's literally fine. Would be if this was

0:47:04.560 --> 0:47:06.960
<v Speaker 2>a ten billion dollar industry, if they were selling it

0:47:07.000 --> 0:47:10.040
<v Speaker 2>as like the equivalent of virtualization or like some side

0:47:10.120 --> 0:47:15.040
<v Speaker 2>thing to the great de cloud compute, not the entire

0:47:15.360 --> 0:47:19.319
<v Speaker 2>future revenue engine because it isn't. I mean.

0:47:19.520 --> 0:47:22.279
<v Speaker 3>And so you know, I run a business and I

0:47:22.560 --> 0:47:25.520
<v Speaker 3>think that So a thing that started people say is

0:47:25.560 --> 0:47:27.880
<v Speaker 3>they say, like you have product market fit, which is like, oh,

0:47:27.920 --> 0:47:30.719
<v Speaker 3>your product is good. Yeah, if like one of the

0:47:30.840 --> 0:47:34.440
<v Speaker 3>criteria is if it went away today, would your users

0:47:34.560 --> 0:47:35.399
<v Speaker 3>like throw a fit?

0:47:35.640 --> 0:47:36.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

0:47:36.400 --> 0:47:38.239
<v Speaker 3>Would you throw a fit of chat GPT you got

0:47:38.360 --> 0:47:40.840
<v Speaker 3>uninstalled from your front You would not, But like you know,

0:47:40.840 --> 0:47:43.000
<v Speaker 3>would the general person be that upset, and I don't

0:47:43.000 --> 0:47:43.600
<v Speaker 3>think they would.

0:47:43.719 --> 0:47:45.880
<v Speaker 2>I think that there would be a contingent of people

0:47:45.920 --> 0:47:48.600
<v Speaker 2>who'd be very upset if you have a like parasocial

0:47:48.600 --> 0:47:50.680
<v Speaker 2>exact the right word. Yeah, if you're like in love

0:47:50.719 --> 0:47:53.080
<v Speaker 2>with your GPT, then that would be like a death

0:47:53.080 --> 0:47:55.880
<v Speaker 2>in your family and that's very sad, which would be horrible.

0:47:55.920 --> 0:47:59.080
<v Speaker 2>And indeed they But it's like I've been saying this

0:47:59.120 --> 0:48:01.560
<v Speaker 2>for what it's like, say it to boosters, like if

0:48:01.560 --> 0:48:04.880
<v Speaker 2>this disappeared, would your life change? Would it really change

0:48:04.880 --> 0:48:07.480
<v Speaker 2>that much? And like, well I used it for baby names.

0:48:07.520 --> 0:48:08.799
<v Speaker 2>I've used it for it's.

0:48:08.560 --> 0:48:11.319
<v Speaker 3>Like you named your baby after No. I'm just saying, like,

0:48:11.560 --> 0:48:12.319
<v Speaker 3>if you like, if.

0:48:12.239 --> 0:48:16.080
<v Speaker 2>You've got a baby name from chat GBT, that's that's tough. Yeah,

0:48:16.120 --> 0:48:18.400
<v Speaker 2>that's really bad. The more that was said to me

0:48:18.440 --> 0:48:20.120
<v Speaker 2>by a booster and the more I think about, the

0:48:20.200 --> 0:48:22.920
<v Speaker 2>more I'm like, brother, one day, your child is going

0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:24.960
<v Speaker 2>to hear this, because all they do is they.

0:48:24.920 --> 0:48:27.360
<v Speaker 3>Sell a book called like the Baby Name Book, and

0:48:27.520 --> 0:48:29.000
<v Speaker 3>it has like a list of names in it.

0:48:29.080 --> 0:48:31.600
<v Speaker 2>I don't fucking know read some books like just think

0:48:31.600 --> 0:48:35.080
<v Speaker 2>about it. Yeah, I'm gonna one of the most important

0:48:35.120 --> 0:48:38.239
<v Speaker 2>choices the identity of a future human. I'm going to

0:48:38.480 --> 0:48:44.520
<v Speaker 2>send it to incorrect Google search. Yeah, it's it's depressing,

0:48:44.600 --> 0:48:47.239
<v Speaker 2>but it's also quite funny because I feel like this

0:48:47.440 --> 0:48:50.839
<v Speaker 2>era has really revealed who just doesn't know anything about

0:48:50.840 --> 0:48:52.840
<v Speaker 2>sucking it. The people who are just like will believe

0:48:52.880 --> 0:48:55.640
<v Speaker 2>anything or will just believe that they are smart at

0:48:55.680 --> 0:48:58.399
<v Speaker 2>something because of machine told them they are, that they

0:48:58.440 --> 0:49:00.359
<v Speaker 2>got this. You got to you go.

0:49:00.719 --> 0:49:04.239
<v Speaker 3>So someone online posted I can't wait for the day

0:49:04.280 --> 0:49:07.080
<v Speaker 3>when there's an AI agent that'll tell me when my

0:49:07.160 --> 0:49:08.239
<v Speaker 3>friend's birthdays are.

0:49:09.040 --> 0:49:11.160
<v Speaker 2>Fuck, there's no other way to do that. There's no

0:49:11.239 --> 0:49:14.120
<v Speaker 2>way to do that. I don't have like some kind

0:49:14.160 --> 0:49:14.880
<v Speaker 2>of calendar.

0:49:15.040 --> 0:49:17.560
<v Speaker 3>No, No, it's going to be a reminder. And so

0:49:17.640 --> 0:49:20.160
<v Speaker 3>that's like, that's what's happening now. Is that in the

0:49:20.280 --> 0:49:23.000
<v Speaker 3>like startup space or just people building technology, it's like, well,

0:49:23.000 --> 0:49:25.600
<v Speaker 3>we're going to get or if you like watch the

0:49:25.600 --> 0:49:28.200
<v Speaker 3>ads on the NFL or whatever, it's like you were

0:49:28.239 --> 0:49:31.680
<v Speaker 3>going to agent is going to do the thing that

0:49:31.719 --> 0:49:34.799
<v Speaker 3>software is supposed to do. Like software. So like I

0:49:34.840 --> 0:49:38.400
<v Speaker 3>got sold at one point accounting software. Right, that was AI, Right,

0:49:38.520 --> 0:49:41.439
<v Speaker 3>the AI is going to categorize your transactions. Sure can't

0:49:41.440 --> 0:49:44.400
<v Speaker 3>do it I bought. I was at a conference and

0:49:44.440 --> 0:49:47.640
<v Speaker 3>it was, you know, whatever, May May twentieth, May twenty first,

0:49:47.640 --> 0:49:50.440
<v Speaker 3>May twenty second. I go to Starbucks, I go to pizza,

0:49:50.520 --> 0:49:53.040
<v Speaker 3>I go to thing. They're all travel related expenses. Yeah,

0:49:53.080 --> 0:49:56.920
<v Speaker 3>one is travel and then the Starbucks is client conversation.

0:49:59.080 --> 0:50:01.759
<v Speaker 2>That's what I decided client conversation. And so I I

0:50:02.120 --> 0:50:04.080
<v Speaker 2>had a meeting with this the founder of the thing,

0:50:04.080 --> 0:50:07.239
<v Speaker 2>and I was like, dude, like, what are you? What

0:50:07.320 --> 0:50:09.200
<v Speaker 2>is it? What is this? What did they say? Well,

0:50:09.200 --> 0:50:10.920
<v Speaker 2>they were just like, you know, sometimes it makes mistakes.

0:50:10.960 --> 0:50:16.800
<v Speaker 2>We should get on that. Fuck. Yeah, that's that's my accountant. Yeah, you.

0:50:17.560 --> 0:50:19.680
<v Speaker 2>My whole thing is I know, it's I think with

0:50:19.760 --> 0:50:21.840
<v Speaker 2>all of this AI coding stuff in the big in

0:50:21.920 --> 0:50:24.799
<v Speaker 2>the big tech realm, something's gonna break something. Really, but

0:50:24.880 --> 0:50:28.480
<v Speaker 2>someone's gonna someone's gonna do something stupid. Yeah.

0:50:28.520 --> 0:50:30.719
<v Speaker 3>Well, so so back to replet. I mean I think

0:50:30.760 --> 0:50:35.200
<v Speaker 3>that they I kind of hope that they're I don't

0:50:35.200 --> 0:50:36.480
<v Speaker 3>know if I hope that they're first to go. I

0:50:36.560 --> 0:50:38.440
<v Speaker 3>mean whatever, they're nice people working there. So that's the

0:50:38.520 --> 0:50:40.520
<v Speaker 3>unfortunate thing is there are nice people working at these

0:50:40.600 --> 0:50:43.239
<v Speaker 3>There are people with jobs like it will involp people.

0:50:43.440 --> 0:50:45.440
<v Speaker 2>I don't I wouldn't want.

0:50:45.280 --> 0:50:47.440
<v Speaker 3>To ask for people to get laid off who are

0:50:47.480 --> 0:50:49.880
<v Speaker 3>hardworking people, and some of them are like cool scientists

0:50:49.920 --> 0:50:51.880
<v Speaker 3>who have studied hard and they're like the nice people.

0:50:52.000 --> 0:50:54.240
<v Speaker 2>And it's the grimpa of all this is like people

0:50:54.239 --> 0:50:55.399
<v Speaker 2>are gonna lose fucking job.

0:50:55.480 --> 0:50:57.400
<v Speaker 3>But it's I mean, it's the executives who you know

0:50:57.400 --> 0:51:00.239
<v Speaker 3>obviously pissed me off for just yes lying through their teeth, right,

0:51:00.280 --> 0:51:02.680
<v Speaker 3>I mean, those people deserved it, and but you know,

0:51:02.719 --> 0:51:05.480
<v Speaker 3>they're never actually going to have a bad outcome happened.

0:51:05.200 --> 0:51:07.080
<v Speaker 2>To them this, which is why we need to write

0:51:07.080 --> 0:51:09.400
<v Speaker 2>things to put their it because at some point there

0:51:09.440 --> 0:51:12.080
<v Speaker 2>needs to be a record of this, of course. Yeah,

0:51:12.160 --> 0:51:14.319
<v Speaker 2>so I'm going to wrap it there. Charlie whek came

0:51:14.360 --> 0:51:14.920
<v Speaker 2>people find you?

0:51:15.280 --> 0:51:19.480
<v Speaker 3>So I have a blog blog dot Charlie Meyer dot co,

0:51:19.680 --> 0:51:21.960
<v Speaker 3>which is like where kind of my writings go. But

0:51:21.960 --> 0:51:24.640
<v Speaker 3>I'm also trying to set up a newsletter. So that's

0:51:24.719 --> 0:51:28.360
<v Speaker 3>Csmeyer dot substack dot com. And my name is spelled

0:51:28.920 --> 0:51:29.960
<v Speaker 3>m E y e R.

0:51:30.200 --> 0:51:33.160
<v Speaker 2>Hell yeah, and I of course amed Zytron. You can

0:51:33.200 --> 0:51:35.399
<v Speaker 2>find me on the internet at Google dot com. That's

0:51:35.440 --> 0:51:37.080
<v Speaker 2>where I live. I will put all the links to

0:51:37.120 --> 0:51:39.359
<v Speaker 2>Charlie's stuff of course in the episode notes, but it's

0:51:39.400 --> 0:51:41.480
<v Speaker 2>good for you to hear it now. And yes, should

0:51:41.480 --> 0:51:43.640
<v Speaker 2>have a monologue coming up this week. I know I

0:51:43.680 --> 0:51:45.680
<v Speaker 2>did an announcement where I said I was going to

0:51:45.680 --> 0:51:48.200
<v Speaker 2>have a big story that is on hold, not because

0:51:48.239 --> 0:51:51.000
<v Speaker 2>anything went wrong, but because the scale of the information

0:51:51.080 --> 0:51:54.960
<v Speaker 2>I got has changed dramatically. When I eventually talk about this,

0:51:55.000 --> 0:51:57.000
<v Speaker 2>it will be a lot of fun. Otherwise, catch you

0:51:57.080 --> 0:52:07.520
<v Speaker 2>sim Thank you for listening to Better Offline.

0:52:07.680 --> 0:52:10.120
<v Speaker 5>The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song

0:52:10.160 --> 0:52:12.840
<v Speaker 5>is Matasowski. You can check out more of his music

0:52:12.840 --> 0:52:16.480
<v Speaker 5>and audio projects at Matasowski dot com, M A T

0:52:16.480 --> 0:52:20.960
<v Speaker 5>T O s O W s ki dot com. You

0:52:21.000 --> 0:52:23.480
<v Speaker 5>can email me at easy at better offline dot com,

0:52:23.600 --> 0:52:25.920
<v Speaker 5>or visit better Offline dot com to find more podcast

0:52:25.960 --> 0:52:29.320
<v Speaker 5>links and of course my newsletter. I also really recommend

0:52:29.320 --> 0:52:31.239
<v Speaker 5>you go to chat dot Where's youreed dot at to

0:52:31.320 --> 0:52:34.120
<v Speaker 5>visit the discord, and go to our slash Better Offline

0:52:34.160 --> 0:52:35.240
<v Speaker 5>to check out our reddit.

0:52:36.040 --> 0:52:37.400
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for listening.

0:52:38.200 --> 0:52:40.920
<v Speaker 1>Better Offline is a production of cool Zone Media. For

0:52:41.040 --> 0:52:44.200
<v Speaker 1>more from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool Zonemedia

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<v Speaker 5>FI