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Speaker 1: It is Week three of the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Boys and girls, How are you welcome into another early

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Speaker 2: NFL Best Bets, Early Bets and survivor picks. He's Pat Fitzmorris.

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Speaker 2: I'm Matt Perolton. We roll another week, Pat, Oh my gosh. Carnage, injuries, quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: problems everywhere. Week three is going to be a treacherous one.

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Speaker 2: How did week two go for you?

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Speaker 1: Overall?

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Speaker 3: You know, it went pretty well, Matt.

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Speaker 4: The big bet was Lions over Bears, and that was

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Speaker 4: kind of a no sweat game, and I think the picks,

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Speaker 4: my picks here.

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Speaker 3: Were three and one. Last week.

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Speaker 4: The myss was a big miss. Though I liked Cowboys

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Speaker 4: Giants under. We did not get in under in that game.

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Speaker 1: Nope, they're still scoring in that game. Yep.

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Speaker 2: That was yeah, one of those. I did well on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: did horrible on Monday. I was within the Lions. I

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Speaker 2: laid that the Bengals were sort of my lucky play

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Speaker 2: of the week with the injury to Joe Burrow, which

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about here in a little bit, how that

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Speaker 2: impacts the Bengals going forward, but they were able to cover.

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Speaker 2: Browning came in and did a really nice job, and

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Speaker 2: they won the game and covered the three, so it

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Speaker 2: was overall good Sunday Monday was a disaster for me

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Speaker 2: on the Raider game.

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Speaker 1: I thought the Raiders were going to play much better.

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Speaker 2: Gino Smith was horrific in the home opener, with three

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Speaker 2: extremely costly interceptions, including on the first play of the game,

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Speaker 2: which made no sense about the way he was playing yesterday.

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Speaker 2: That was one of the worst games I've seen Gino

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Speaker 2: Smith play. And then I was really surprised. I liked

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Speaker 2: Tampa a lot, but I was surprised as to some

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Speaker 2: of the overall decisions that were made in the first

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Speaker 2: game with the Texans. I don't know what direction that

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Speaker 2: team is going to go in, but they have not

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Speaker 2: started the way they used to, at least offensively. And

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Speaker 2: I know Tank Dell being out and whatnot has really

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Speaker 2: limited that offense in that passing attack.

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Speaker 1: But c J. Stroud has really regressed.

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Speaker 2: Quickly from a guy that we thought was going to

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Speaker 2: be an elite quarterback in this league. And wow, a

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Speaker 2: different situation going on in Houston right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he's under so much fire man that offensive line.

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Speaker 4: I really think it's the worst offensive line in the league.

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Speaker 4: And like they were holding up for about oh a

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Speaker 4: drive or two and then things started to fall apart.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, they'll b are quite fast for that

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Speaker 2: Texans team. So all right, onto week three we go

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Speaker 2: as a whole, you know, when we're approaching this and

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Speaker 2: whether it be from a fantasy standpoint or from a

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Speaker 2: DFS standpoint or a betting standpoint, for you, when you

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Speaker 2: see this many starting quarterbacks who are not going to

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Speaker 2: be playing for their teams, what does this do to

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Speaker 2: you in terms of how willing you are to get

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Speaker 2: involved with games involving backups.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm getting very involved in one of them, Matt,

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Speaker 4: and we'll talk about that. I've got kind of an

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Speaker 4: angle on that where I feel a little bit, well

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Speaker 4: much better about one team replacing its quarterback than the

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Speaker 4: other team, where you know, I think it's.

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Speaker 3: A big.

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Speaker 4: Life change for one team and not so much for

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Speaker 4: the other. So yeah, it all kind of depends. I know,

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Speaker 4: like I'm not touching the Washington right right now until

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Speaker 4: we have more clarity on Jade Daniels status. He's got

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Speaker 4: a knee injury and is considered questionable as we record

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Speaker 4: this on Tuesday morning, So I think that has to

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Speaker 4: be a stay away right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the number would tell you that he's not playing.

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Speaker 2: Just looking at the crash opened a five and a

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Speaker 2: half or down to three for the Commanders. Now, So

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Speaker 2: if you're looking at the betting numbers as to what

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Speaker 2: the betting markets are expecting, they're expecting Jade Daniels to

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Speaker 2: not play in that game with the spring knee. And

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Speaker 2: if you hear listen to the rumor mill, he's being

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Speaker 2: told he should not play. And yet it's kind of

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Speaker 2: like similar to Joe Burrow where he was being told

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Speaker 2: to have surgery even though he didn't want to have surgery.

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Speaker 2: He was you know, the recommendation was, Hey, you need

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Speaker 2: to go and get this done. Maybe the same thing

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Speaker 2: here with Jade Daniels. You don't need to play in

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Speaker 2: this game. We need you available in December. We don't

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Speaker 2: need to worry about a game in September against a

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Speaker 2: team from the AFC West. So I'll be very curious,

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Speaker 2: at least from a book perspective, the pros are thinking

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Speaker 2: that he is not He is not playing, But for me,

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Speaker 2: what makes it difficult? Prop bets go out the window,

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Speaker 2: like I shrink or don't bet props at all in

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Speaker 2: games involving backups, unless I think that there's an angle

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Speaker 2: from a running perspective if one quarterback wants to run

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Speaker 2: more than another. But like Jake Browning came in for

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Speaker 2: the Bengals and really performed well. And I'll be curious

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Speaker 2: what the book's going to put up from a prop perspective,

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Speaker 2: because he's throwing to such an incredible group of receivers

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Speaker 2: that you know, he looked the part. He didn't look

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Speaker 2: like Joe Burrow, but he looked like a competent quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. So for those levels, But like with

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Speaker 2: JJ McCarthy being out, and there's just a lot of

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Speaker 2: offenses that I'm not sold that are going to be there.

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Speaker 2: And let me ask you this, if you were a

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Speaker 2: team that needs a quarterback that has an injury that

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Speaker 2: could be for you know, a significant amount of time,

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Speaker 2: how is Kirk Cousins not being talked.

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Speaker 1: About right now? If you're a GM or an owner.

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Speaker 2: Or front office, how are you not looking at the

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Speaker 2: Falcons trying to get Kirk Cousins away from them?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you would think he would be appealing because the

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Speaker 4: Falcons have clearly committed to Michael Pennix Junior.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I.

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Speaker 4: Would think if you lossome the Bengals might be a

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Speaker 4: different case though, because we've already seen Jake Browning make

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Speaker 4: an extended, you know, substitute stance for Joe Burrow and

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Speaker 4: performed reasonably well. But yeah, for some of these other

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Speaker 4: teams facing well, if you were facing a long term

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Speaker 4: advant Kirk Cousins back to Washington when that'd be an

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Speaker 4: interesting story.

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Speaker 1: Angle, Wow, how about that?

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Speaker 2: I see the contract is part of the problem for

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins, and I understand that. But man alive, I

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Speaker 2: mean that guy right now. If not him, I mean,

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Speaker 2: why don't you go and talk to the Giants about

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Speaker 2: Jamis Winston, Like, how is he still not on a

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Speaker 2: roster somewhere at least getting a crack to start and

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Speaker 2: putting him with the Bengals would be wild. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he may throw for five hundred five touchdowns and five picks,

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Speaker 2: but it would be fun to watch, it would be

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Speaker 2: would be it would be a wild experience to watch

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Speaker 2: him play.

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Speaker 1: So well, we'll keep your eye on that.

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Speaker 2: As as Pat said, we're taping on Tuesday, so obviously

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of volatility that's going to come into

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Speaker 2: the market over the next couple of days, based upon

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Speaker 2: quarterback availability and based upon if there are trades to

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Speaker 2: be made in the NFL. But let's just start this

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday. What's a bet that you're looking at right

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Speaker 2: now for Sunday?

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Speaker 1: In Week three?

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Speaker 4: Pet Cowboys Bears over forty nine and a half, Matt

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Speaker 4: This one looks like a scorethon to me. The Bears

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Speaker 4: defense fell apart against the Vikings in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 4: of their Week one loss, and the Bears defense just

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Speaker 4: got steamrolled by the Lions last week. Chicago's best cornerback,

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Speaker 4: Jalen Johnson just reaggravated a groin injury he had missed

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Speaker 4: week one, came back in Week two. Now he's out indefinitely.

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Speaker 4: Slot corner Kyler Gordon, their second best cornerback, out with

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Speaker 4: a hamstring injury. Not sure if he's coming back this week.

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Speaker 4: Probably not. Linebacker TJ. Edwards hamstring injury. Like this defense

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Speaker 4: is already chewed up, and the Cowboys pass defense just

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Speaker 4: got destroyed by Russell Wilson and the Giants, so they're

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Speaker 4: going to be without their best cornerback in Week three.

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Speaker 4: Dron Bland still without linebacker Demaron Overshan. The Bears rank

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Speaker 4: d last in the league in defensive DVA through two weeks,

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Speaker 4: and I know it's early to be looking at DVA,

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Speaker 4: but that's the fact. And the Cowboys ranked twenty ninth.

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Speaker 4: The Bears running game looks broken. They have to throw

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Speaker 4: a lot to win a game like this, and the

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Speaker 4: Chicago passing game hasn't been terrible. Also, Matt, it's gonna

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Speaker 4: be unseasonably warm here in Chicago on Sunday, temperatures in

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Speaker 4: the mid eighties.

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Speaker 3: These pass rushers are.

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Speaker 4: Going to get tired with as much throwing as I

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Speaker 4: think we're going to see in this game. So I

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Speaker 4: think this game goes soaring over the total, not making

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Speaker 4: a mistake of betting a Cowboys under again like I

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Speaker 4: did last week.

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Speaker 3: We're going over the total this week.

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Speaker 2: I can't make out heads or tails from the number.

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Speaker 2: Your play is right with the steam. This thing opened

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Speaker 2: up in forty six and a half. It's Tuesday, by

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Speaker 2: jo By the way, it's now fifty. To give you

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Speaker 2: an idea, it has been one way action on the

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Speaker 2: over here from the professionals, and we aren't even at

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Speaker 2: a point where the limits are opened up. Heavy limits

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Speaker 2: aren't available at the moment. This is just thousand dollars

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Speaker 2: limits at most books here on a Tuesday, and people

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Speaker 2: are hammering the over for this one. So I'll be

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Speaker 2: curious to see how high this winds up going. But

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Speaker 2: I'm with you on the over. I love to bet

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Speaker 2: that it's a good read by you. But my raad

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Speaker 2: is is just to take Dallas. I don't understand how

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys are a dog to a bear, a Bears

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Speaker 2: team that if we're gonna talk about points, we just

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Speaker 2: saw it with what the Cowboys did against the Giants.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the one thing that the Cowboys can do

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Speaker 2: is score. They can't play defense. But I don't trust

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Speaker 2: Caleb Williams to do anything offensively, even against a bad defense.

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Speaker 2: I can't trust Caleb Williams to not throw interceptions. And

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Speaker 2: they just picked up to Davion Clowney. And I know

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Speaker 2: Clowney's not gonna be you know, he's not Michael Parsis

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Speaker 2: by any stretch of the imagination, but he is a

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Speaker 2: guy who good pined his ears back and go get

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Speaker 2: the quarterback. It's the one thing that guy can do

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Speaker 2: is rush the quarterback. So I like what Dallas has

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Speaker 2: done by taking Clowney and I think we're gonna see points,

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Speaker 2: but I'm getting Dallas, as you mentioned, unseasonably warm.

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Speaker 1: This is not Chicago in December.

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Speaker 2: And know there are quote quasi dome team going to

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Speaker 2: the outdoor elements, but there's no elements. Is this going

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Speaker 2: to be a fast track in Chicago? My first play

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Speaker 2: is the Cowboys catching one and a half points. I'm

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Speaker 2: really surprised that Dallas is a dog here. Can you

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Speaker 2: make heads or tails of this? Well, Chicago's backed against

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Speaker 2: the wall. They've got to win this game.

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Speaker 4: Just maybe the fact that Chicago was being held in

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Speaker 4: pretty high regard coming into the season, with people thinking

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Speaker 4: Ben Johnson was going to turn things around, but clearly

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Speaker 4: not the case so far. And Matt, I'm here in

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Speaker 4: the Chicago area and on Sunday night, I was watching

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Speaker 4: one of the local newscast late and you know, they

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Speaker 4: were doing some extended interviews in the locker room with

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Speaker 4: Bears players.

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Speaker 3: Low morale.

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Speaker 4: Man, there was a real sense of defeat with the

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Speaker 4: players that they were talking to, like they did not

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Speaker 4: expect to get blown out by Detroit.

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Speaker 3: Even if we expected that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're spot on here with your Dallas instinct.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting too, because the Lions players were cloud Ben Johnson.

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Speaker 2: I mean they were celebrating with running his plays in

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Speaker 2: the end zone to tease him, and like you could

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Speaker 2: tell going into the game that you know there were

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Speaker 2: some comments that had been made kind of not as

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Speaker 2: widely publicized, but if he dug down deep that the

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Speaker 2: Lions were angry about the way Ben Johnson went about it,

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Speaker 2: and him going to the Lions sorry to the Bears

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Speaker 2: from the Lions didn't sit well with players. It was like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: if you want to go coach, that's great, but don't

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Speaker 2: go coach arrival. And he went to go coach arrival,

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Speaker 2: and he picked to go to the Bears. He wanted

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Speaker 2: to go to the Bears. He chose publicly sid I

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Speaker 2: want to be the coach of the Bears. So that

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Speaker 2: didn't sit well. So so now here back at home,

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Speaker 2: if the players aren't jumping up and down, I mean

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Speaker 2: we've seen it before, we're Soldier field. If the fans

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Speaker 2: start to get a bit antsy and nervous, and if

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Speaker 2: Dallas scores early, it starts to get to be that

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Speaker 2: pressure cooker where Caleb starts to force things because he

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Speaker 2: knows he has to try to do a superman act

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Speaker 2: to win the game. And I know, again it's the Cowboys,

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Speaker 2: but I just don't trust Caleb to be able to

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Speaker 2: win a football game in that scenario. It's more like

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Speaker 2: a money line play for the Cowboys. When you're catching

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Speaker 2: one and a half points. I just think Dallas wins

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Speaker 2: the game. Dak Prescott in this receiving core is only

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Speaker 2: going to get better as we go. Dallas has ran

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Speaker 2: the ball pretty effectively for the first two weeks. It's

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Speaker 2: been pretty impressive to see what they've done offensively running

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Speaker 2: the football as well. It's passing the football. So I

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Speaker 2: like Dallas lay in one. You like the over, I

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Speaker 2: think the over. You can play both those right now.

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Speaker 2: If you like those plays, would bet them now because

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Speaker 2: those numbers think both are going to change by the

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Speaker 2: time kickoff comes on Sunday. We are extremely excited to

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Speaker 1: Virginia game number two. For you, what are you looking at?

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Speaker 4: I am going to go with uh. And I know

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Speaker 4: we might not agree with this one. Titans plus three

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Speaker 4: and a half over the cool guys at home. So

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Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I missed the memo that the

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Speaker 4: Colts are a Super Bowl contender. Like, I know, they

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Speaker 4: look good in their Week two win over a pretty

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Speaker 4: good Broncos team. They were at home for that one.

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Speaker 4: They were also at home for an evisceration of the

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Speaker 4: Dolphin in Week one. I don't think anyone really believes

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Speaker 4: that was any sort of achievements, you know, not a

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Speaker 4: great accomplishment to beat the Dolphins at this point. But

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Speaker 4: do we really think Daniel Jones is going to keep

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Speaker 4: playing mistake free MVP level football for the Colts? Like

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Speaker 4: in seventy two career games, Daniel Jones has forty seven

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Speaker 4: interceptions and fifty fumbles so far this year, no turnovers,

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Speaker 4: Like he is a career average of six point six

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Speaker 4: yards per pass attempt. Two games into the season, He's

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Speaker 4: had nine point three yards per attempt. And you know,

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Speaker 4: I give Shane credit, Shane Stiken credit for being a

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Speaker 4: good coach, maybe he can kind of fix or at

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Speaker 4: least patch up Daniel Jones. And part of it is

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Speaker 4: that the Colts offensive line has kept him really clean

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Speaker 4: so far. They have a lot of pressure rate of

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Speaker 4: less than ten percent. That's crazy good, but it's also

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Speaker 4: not sustainable. This is the Colts first road game, Matt.

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Speaker 4: They were three and six on the road last year.

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Speaker 4: They did win in Tennessee, but only by three points,

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Speaker 4: twenty to seventeen. And I know the Titans haven't played

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Speaker 4: well the first two weeks, but give me a home

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Speaker 4: dog getting more than a field goal against the Indianapolis calls.

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Speaker 4: I'm betting the Titans at plus three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I want the three. And I'm on the other side

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Speaker 2: the Callahan crew. I can never back. And whether it

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Speaker 2: be Brian or Bill, cam Ward has gotten away with

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Speaker 2: a couple of throws already that I think is the

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Speaker 2: worst thing for him, because in college, the more he

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Speaker 2: got away with the let's run to my left and

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Speaker 2: throw as far back to the left to the other

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Speaker 2: side of the field as I can.

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Speaker 1: And it worked in Miami, it worked in college.

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Speaker 2: It worked last week for a touchdown pass where he

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Speaker 2: ran to his right and threw all the way back

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Speaker 2: to the left. That I think is a problem, and

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Speaker 2: I think that's not good for him to think he

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Speaker 2: can do that. And I think cam Ward could be

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Speaker 2: a problem here with this Colts defense. I think you

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Speaker 2: could see turnovers here. I just think, look, Shane Steichen

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Speaker 2: has been tremendous in the early months. He's now set

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Speaker 2: seventeen and eight against the number in September, October, and November.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a coaching mismatch here. I think Daniel

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Speaker 2: Jones has an opportunity to change the narrative about everything

329
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Speaker 2: about him. I mean, he's with a competent coach and

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Speaker 2: you could say him in New York just didn't work

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Speaker 2: sometimes chains of scenery. It's a divisional game to me

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Speaker 2: where I have a better team on the road and

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Speaker 2: the Colts are going to fall apart at some point

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Speaker 2: because Shane Steichen does not do well in December. He's

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Speaker 2: three to eight ats in December, so the Colts run

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Speaker 2: out of gas. But in the early part of the year,

337
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Speaker 2: much like the Packers, the Colts are a team under

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Speaker 2: Shane Stikeen that you want to back. I was stunned

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Speaker 2: they beat the Broncos. I mean, and I was stunned

340
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Speaker 2: the game went over. I thought that was a dead under.

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Speaker 2: That was one of my best bets to go under

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Speaker 2: in that game. Nope, that game was over at halftime basically.

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Speaker 2: So it was twenty one to twenty, I believe at

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Speaker 2: halftime of that game. And yes, the Colts were fortunate

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Speaker 2: to get the flag to be able to kick the

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Speaker 2: field goal to win the game against the Broncos. But

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Speaker 2: I was I was very impressed with the performance from

348
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Speaker 2: the offensive perspective, and so going on the road against

349
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Speaker 2: the Titans defense, which I'm not really all that in

350
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Speaker 2: love with, I'll lay the three.

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Speaker 1: I think the hook matters for you.

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Speaker 2: Three and a half. This is one of those things

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Speaker 2: where either buy it down or search and go find it.

354
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Speaker 2: But the numbers climbing it opened it two. We're now

355
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Speaker 2: at three and a half at some books. So you

356
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Speaker 2: like plus three and a half, I like minus three.

357
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Speaker 2: We'll see how the game goes home dogs in the NFL,

358
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 2: I can't argue it. It's always better I think to

359
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 2: take points in laying points when it comes to teams

360
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Speaker 2: at home.

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Speaker 1: But I like what I've seen out of Daniel Jones,

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Speaker 1: at least early in the year. I've liked what I've

363
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Speaker 1: seen out of them so far.

364
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Speaker 3: When, but when does that carriage turn into a pumpkin mat?

365
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 1: That's just it's the Titans though.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I agree with you, but like the Titans

367
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,640
Speaker 2: of the team to do it. Maybe not, it's and

368
00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: it's a it's a bottom three team in the NFL.

369
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,920
Speaker 2: So are they the guy? They're the team too exposed

370
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Speaker 2: to kind of show the Emperor has no clothes.

371
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Speaker 4: I don't know you all saw you mentioned the Shane

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Speaker 4: Styke in early season in seventeen and eight record. I

373
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Speaker 4: think that's also your record against me when we're on

374
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Speaker 4: opposite sides of a vent maybe even.

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Speaker 3: A little bit better than seventeen and eight. So you know,

376
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 3: if you're watching this, you should probably go.

377
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,639
Speaker 2: With Matt and I'll be curious to see what ends

378
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 2: up happening. But again, you can get threes in the market.

379
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 2: I think the hook does matter. If you don't mind

380
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:19,439
Speaker 2: the juice, you can buy it down to three. If

381
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 2: you up at three and a half, you can wait.

382
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,040
Speaker 2: I think that number climbs. I think you can get

383
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 2: a better number than three and a half. I think

384
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,520
Speaker 2: that's going to be four, four and a half by

385
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,959
Speaker 2: time kickoff comes around, because I don't think anyone's back

386
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,399
Speaker 2: in the Titans, you know, just given what we've seen

387
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,640
Speaker 2: so far, if you care about such a thing, it's

388
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 2: basically ninety percent of the money is in on the Colts.

389
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 2: So the early professional move is on Indianapolis less than

390
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,720
Speaker 2: a field goal now being driven over a field goal

391
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Speaker 2: at three.

392
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Speaker 1: And a half. Number three, play for you this weekend?

393
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 1: What are you looking at?

394
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 4: Seahawks minus seven and a half at home against the Saints.

395
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 4: And I think the true line here is probably should

396
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 4: be closer to ten. It's it's smaller than I would

397
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,959
Speaker 4: have expected. I mean, and it's minus one to ZHO

398
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 4: five with Seattle minus seven and a half. Line is

399
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,679
Speaker 4: smaller than I would have expected because the Saints have

400
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 4: actually acquitted themselves reasonably well so far in a pair

401
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 4: of opening home games, close losses to the Cardinals and

402
00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 4: forty nine ers. But now they're on the road for

403
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 4: the first time and Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler has not

404
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 4: thrown an interception yet. I would not count on that

405
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 4: to continue. Seattle is a really good defense. Mike McDonald

406
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 4: one of the sharpest defensive minds in the game, and

407
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,959
Speaker 4: the Seahawks got their running game cranked up with Kenneth

408
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 4: Walker last week in Pittsburgh. I think they're going to

409
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 4: make really easy work of the Saints at home in

410
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 4: one of the toughest places to play in the NFL,

411
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 4: against the team making a long trip to the Pacific

412
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 4: Northwest from the Bayou. So give me the Seahawks minus

413
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:48,959
Speaker 4: seven and a half.

414
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 1: I like it.

415
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Speaker 2: And I think in terms of defensive acumen, I think

416
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 2: the Seahawks gets slept on a little bit here just

417
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: how good they are defensively. And I think in watching

418
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,719
Speaker 2: them this year, they've done nothing but take you know,

419
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 2: to change my opinion of what Seattle has been able

420
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 2: to accomplish. And again, this is another game in which

421
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 2: you're talking about a backup quarterback going on the road

422
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 2: to a top tough, hostile environment, you know, one of

423
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 2: the mean the Saints at home. Fine Saints on the road,

424
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 2: give me a break. This is where you see them

425
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 2: be the worst team in football in particular to the

426
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 2: environment that is Seattle, to go up there and take

427
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: on the Seahawks there.

428
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 1: So I like that.

429
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 2: I'll be curious to see how high that number goes,

430
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: because you know, we've got a twelve and a half

431
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,919
Speaker 2: on the board for Buffalo, we have a eight and

432
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 2: a half on the board for Green Bay. We have

433
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 2: a seven and a half on the board here for Seattle. Like,

434
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 2: we could be looking on a week where we get

435
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 2: three double digit favorites in the NFL, and we've had

436
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 2: that in previous years where we've seen large double digit

437
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,719
Speaker 2: favorites and generally speaking, teams cover those teams that have

438
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,920
Speaker 2: the big number next to them that actually do blow

439
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 2: the team out and they do end up covering. So

440
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,479
Speaker 2: I think that's that's another number that if you like it,

441
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,159
Speaker 2: bet it now, because I do think that number is

442
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 2: just going to climb for Seattle. Guys, have you gone

443
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448
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449
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450
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452
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453
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Speaker 2: bet Analyzer, all the great stuff, all the tools available

454
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456
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Speaker 2: and download the new Betting Pros app available where you

457
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 2: guys get your apps for me for my third game.

458
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 2: And this is going to be a teaser special. One

459
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 2: hundred percent be involved in this. But the Chiefs are

460
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 2: on the road against New York and the Chiefs are desperate.

461
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 2: They're laying five and a half or five, they'll probably

462
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 2: lay six to seven by the time we get to

463
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,880
Speaker 2: kick off on this. The public the narrative all week long,

464
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 2: it is going to be what's wrong with the casey Chiefs.

465
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 2: But I think Kansas City goes up against the Giants,

466
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 2: and look, if you're a Giant fan, you have to

467
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 2: start asking yourself the question of if we lose this game.

468
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 2: And that's why you could tease it down, just take

469
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 2: it down to a money line for Kansas City. But

470
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 2: if you lose this game, you go oh to three

471
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 2: and even though Russell Wilson just threw for four hundred

472
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: yards against the Cowboys, when do you play Jackson Dart Like,

473
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: when do you start to game plan and give him

474
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: more than just a couple of plays and get him

475
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 2: actually into the rotation as the quarterback of the future

476
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 2: for the New York Giants. On the other side, the

477
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,719
Speaker 2: Chiefs couldn't be more desperate because the Chargers are two

478
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,239
Speaker 2: and oh and the Chargers are playing the Broncos. I mean,

479
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 2: the Chargers have a chance if they win this game,

480
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: they go three and oh in the division. Pat not

481
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: just three and oh overall three know in the division

482
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 2: Casey cannot lose this game against the Giants. This is

483
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 2: just a straight like Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes pulling

484
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 2: up magic to stop the losing streak three straight games.

485
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: I can't see four straight games for it, so tease it.

486
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 2: But also five and a half. How do you feel

487
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 2: about the Chiefs on the road against the Giants?

488
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: Pretty good? I like your angle on this one. Man.

489
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 4: The Chiefs stuffed the run pretty well, so Russell Wilson

490
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 4: is going to have to take to the air again,

491
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 4: and so much of his success against the Cowboys last

492
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 4: week was just Giants receivers running go routes and beating

493
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 4: the Cowboys. That's not going to happen against the Steve

494
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 4: Spagnolo defense. So Russ is going to have to be

495
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 4: on again. And like week one, he looked pretty terrible

496
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 4: against Washington, So I would bet on terrible Russ coming

497
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 4: out again over like the vintage Russ we saw last week.

498
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 4: I just think that was kind of a mirage. So

499
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 4: I'm with you.

500
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 2: Here and you may get some juiced up numbers for

501
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson passing yard is maybe up to high. Touchdown passes,

502
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: maybe up too high. I mean, I would say look

503
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: to fade everything with Russell Wilson going up against you know,

504
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 2: if the Chiefs are gonna win the game, they may

505
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: they might win the game seventeen to seven. I'm not

506
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 2: saying it's gonna be a high scoring game. Maybe the

507
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: under as well is a decent look for the game.

508
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 2: But I mean, this is a very prideful organization that's

509
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 2: having a very hard week and a very difficult look

510
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 2: in the mirror.

511
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 4: And they get Xavier Worthy back in all likely I

512
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: do it seems like, you know, they almost kept that

513
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 4: window open for him late into last week playing with

514
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 4: this brace. Now, whether he's kind of a little guy,

515
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 4: I don't know if he holds up for the whole game,

516
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 4: but I do think he comes back this week.

517
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 2: That's a I mean, you have a dislocated, separated shoulder,

518
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 2: whatever it might be. It's just like you go and

519
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: play NFL football for a guy his size, ow is

520
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 2: that that's not gonna.

521
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 4: As a guy dealing with the shoulder injury, I'm sure

522
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 4: you can imagine the difficulty of that.

523
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, the guy who could relate to the pain of

524
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: deal with that.

525
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 2: All right, So every week we look at survivor plays

526
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 2: and so far you're two and now so far I'm

527
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 2: two and o so or technly our survivor picks would

528
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 2: still be alive. If you were gonna take a survivor

529
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 2: play this week, what would it be.

530
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go back to that Seahawks Saints game, Like,

531
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 4: I just don't think there's any chance the Saints go

532
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 4: up to the Pacific Northwest. You know, it beat the

533
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 4: Seahawks in Seattle, so there's some other nice options on

534
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 4: the board. It's I know you don't like betting divisional games,

535
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 4: but it's hard to see the Bills dumping one to

536
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 4: the Dolphins at Thursday Thursday night at home.

537
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: There's just so much wonkiness to that.

538
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 2: It makes the logic of that makes perfect sense, right, yes,

539
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 2: but but there's just that like divisional Thursday, red flag

540
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 2: on red flag on red flag of like, is this

541
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: now the time to take the Bills?

542
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 1: I don't know.

543
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 2: I mean, I know, it's only one trip to my

544
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 2: to Buffalo from Miami. It's in September. The Bills are

545
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 2: going down there later in December, I understand, But is

546
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: now the time to use Buffalo. I don't know if

547
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 2: this is the game to use Buffalo.

548
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 3: Agree.

549
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 4: As nice as it would be to get your survivor

550
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 4: win in on a Thursday, I think the Bills aren't

551
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 4: gonna be a team we're looking to take a little later.

552
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 3: They're a good team to save.

553
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 4: And you know, the Packers certainly in play against the

554
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 4: Browns with what we've seen from their defense, Like I

555
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 4: do worry maybe it's a little bit of a letdown

556
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 4: spot like the Packers. Maybe they start to believe their

557
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 4: press clippings a little too much and we'll see though,

558
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 4: I mean, like the Browns defense was I felt bad

559
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 4: for them as well, as they played against the Ravens

560
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 4: last week and Joe Flacco just kept giving the ball

561
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 4: back to the Ravens and it wound up being a blowout.

562
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 4: But the Browns defense acquitted itself really well in that game,

563
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 4: and so I worry that they could turn this into

564
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 4: kind of a low scoring, closer than you want it.

565
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 3: To be type of game.

566
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 2: So I am I'm recommending the Packers because of what

567
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 2: their record is under Matt Laflor, which is ridiculous. They

568
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 2: are now seventeen and three against the spread in their

569
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 2: first three games of the season. Since twenty nineteen, they

570
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 2: are seventeen and six ats in September under Matt Laflor,

571
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 2: and they're ridiculous eight and one against the number on

572
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 2: the road. So I will be laying the eight points

573
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: with the Packers early. You can jump in on that

574
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: number if you want to get it before it runs.

575
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 2: But I like the Packers to win and cover. They're

576
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: gonna win the game. They're probably gonna kill the Browns.

577
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: To be quite honest, this is just this is a

578
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 2: game in which Matt lafleor flexes. They go out there

579
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: and put up a big number. I know the Browns

580
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: defense is they're better unit than their offense. But I

581
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: like the Packers. If you're gonna look for a time,

582
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: I know it's a road team, so you be like,

583
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 2: whoa a road team favorite? Heavy on the you know,

584
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 2: do you want to? But it's a survivor play, so

585
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: it's just to win the game. But Matt Lafleur has

586
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 2: proven it, in particular the for the first two weeks

587
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 2: of the season, that this offense can put up some numbers.

588
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 2: They can run the football, and man, you're you're a

589
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 2: Packer fan, right, you're.

590
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: In Chicago, but you like this, sir.

591
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 2: You got to feel something special here about this defense

592
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 2: as to what's going on, because I haven't bought a

593
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: future yet on the Packers, but watching their defense the

594
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 2: first two weeks, I've definitely been shopping for a Packer's

595
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 2: Super Bowl future.

596
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 1: Just give what they look like.

597
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, last I checked, they've they've passed the Eagles to

598
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 4: become NFC favorites. Their minus are plus three to twenty

599
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 4: and I think the Eagles are plus three sixty last

600
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 4: I checked. So yeah, this defense does look great and

601
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,239
Speaker 4: unfortunately this is probably going to be the Packers last year.

602
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 4: With Jeff Haffley as defensive coordinator because I think he

603
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 4: gets a head coaching gig next year, like he was

604
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 4: doing a great job last year pre Micah Parsons. We're

605
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 4: lacking sort of a punch, yeah, key pass rushing force. Yeah,

606
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 4: leaving our cornerbacks exposed a little more than I would

607
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 4: have liked. But Halfley has done an amazing job and

608
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 4: this defense has really come to get there. There's some

609
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 4: unsung guys in the secondary who are playing terrifically. I

610
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 4: think Edgar and Cooper their linebackers, like this unsung star

611
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 4: who's gonna be more of a household name in the

612
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 4: years to come. So yeah, it's an amazing defense. And

613
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 4: you know, Jordan Love is still pretty pretty good quarterback

614
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 4: to the one two punch of Love in Jacobs is

615
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 4: pretty solid.

616
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, things are things are looking up. Man.

617
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love what I've seen, and I know it's

618
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 2: sort of like the pick dejore, but the numbers don't

619
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: lie for what this Packers team does early in the

620
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 2: season under Matt Lafleur, under Jordan Love, and now you've

621
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: just added a defense that I mean, they're going on

622
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 2: the road now, look like it's not Cleveland in December.

623
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 2: It's Cleveland in September. So and if it's gonna be

624
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 2: unseeably warm in Chicago, my gut tells me that Ohio's

625
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 2: weather is gonna be similar here, so it's gonna be warm.

626
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 2: It's gonna be warm in Ohio for the game as well.

627
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 2: So Micah Parsons can pin his ears back and go

628
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: make you know, the life a living heck for the

629
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 2: quarterbacks for the Cleveland Brown.

630
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: So I haven't bought it. I should have bought it

631
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 1: at seven to one.

632
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 2: I kind of choked on it and said, all right,

633
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: let's get out of September and let's see the first loss.

634
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: Let's see if there's a.

635
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: Losing streak at some point for the Packers, and maybe

636
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: people the shine comes off the penny for a little

637
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: bit and then we can get involved with the Packers.

638
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: But come to playoffs. I'm not high on the Lions.

639
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 2: I know they just killed the Bears. I don't care,

640
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,479
Speaker 2: like it meant nothing to me that that game was.

641
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: You know, it's an anomaly. I think the Bears are bad.

642
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 2: I don't think the Bears are going to be good,

643
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 2: So I like the Packers to win the Division and

644
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 2: then you've got the path right as to like who

645
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 2: else in the NFC it's the Eagles, right, Well, if

646
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: the Packers can get the number one seed and you

647
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 2: force the Eagles to go to LAMBA. I know they're

648
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 2: a cold weather team quote quote unquote and they look

649
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: to run the football, but that place in January, no, thanks, Like,

650
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 2: I don't think. I don't think anybody wants to play

651
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: in Green Bay, Wisconsin in January at lambeau Field. So

652
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: if they can get the one seed, or at least

653
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: that they're angling to get the one seed, huge advantage

654
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: for or for the Packers to make it to San

655
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: Francisco for the Super Bowl.

656
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: So I'm in on your team.

657
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: I like your coach, I like your quarterback, I like

658
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: your defense a lot man like it's hard Bear fans

659
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 2: are gonna hear this and want to throw up and

660
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: go this is ridiculous, you guys. Everyone always pumps the

661
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: tires with the Packers and then they fall apart in January. Okay, maybe,

662
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 2: but it's interesting and you're a Packer fan, so you

663
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 2: can tell me. I don't remember players talking the way

664
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: that they've been talking in the locker room for the

665
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 2: Packers since Michael Parsons has been traded there, like he

666
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: he did something to that psyche for that football team

667
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: when he went there.

668
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 4: Absolutely huge emotional left to get him. You know, it

669
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 4: seems like found money, right if you're a member of

670
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 4: the Green Bay Packer Packers or a Packers fan and.

671
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: You have a guy that if you third and seven,

672
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: you need to need a guy to blow up a play.

673
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: Yep, Michael Parts is a pretty good guy to go

674
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: and do.

675
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 2: It, all right for a bet that we would make

676
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 2: right now, a number that you think is gonna move?

677
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: What play would you make one on Tuesday?

678
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 5: Man?

679
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 4: Maybe I should have taken Seattle for this category, Matt,

680
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 4: But this is another line I do think could move.

681
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 4: I like the Vikings at home minus three over the Bengals.

682
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 4: I worry that we're going to lose this three and

683
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: go up to three and a half and not get

684
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 4: this key number. So we've got no starting quarterbacks in

685
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,479
Speaker 4: this game. With JJ McCarthy out and Joe Burrow out,

686
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 4: the quarterback situation is a hiccup for the Vikings. Like

687
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 4: McCarthy wasn't playing well anyway, the Joe Burrow injury is

688
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 4: ruinous for the Bengals. And I know we saw Jake

689
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 4: Browning fill in admirably the last time he had to

690
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 4: sub for Joe Burrow for an extended period.

691
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 3: But let's not kid ourselves.

692
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 4: This is a huge drop off and the Bengals now

693
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 4: have no chance to make the playoffs, even though they're

694
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: two and oh, a very fraudulent two and oh against

695
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 4: bad teams. They were lucky to beat the Browns in

696
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 4: week one. They were lucky to beat the Jaguars in

697
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: week two. Met the Vikings laid a huge egg Sunday

698
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 4: night against the Falcons. Like normally US Bank Stadium is

699
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 4: a house of horrors for opponents, the Vikings just rolled

700
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 4: over for the Falcons in a twenty two to six loss.

701
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 4: And no way the Vikings played two straight terrible games

702
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 4: at home, like this is a very well coached team

703
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 4: with Kevin O'Connell calling the shots and Brian Flores running

704
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 4: the defense. And I think the Vikings are going to

705
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 4: be breathing fire after embarrassing themselves on national television. So

706
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 4: this is really kind of a spot game for me.

707
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 3: I mean, think of the.

708
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 4: Relative the morale for these two teams right now, Vikings angry, embarrassed,

709
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 4: ready to come out and show something against the Bengals.

710
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 4: The Bengals, knowing that their star quarterback is going to

711
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 4: be out pretty much for the rest of the season,

712
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 4: like barring a miracle that he comes back, like, their

713
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 4: morale has to be in the tank. So I think

714
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 4: the Vikings are going to win this one handily.

715
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to throw you a curveball because I'm going

716
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 2: to change. I just thought we've going to take the Colts,

717
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: but because we're on opposite sides of I'm going to say, Okay,

718
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 2: maybe you are correct with this, So I'm gonna pivot

719
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: because I might be wrong about taking Telling people to

720
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 2: bet a road favorite in the division at the moment

721
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 2: may not be the smartest thing to do early. Let's

722
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: wait and see how that number settles, and then maybe

723
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: I still like the Colts, but maybe you wait and

724
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: see where that number settles. The Patriots are hosting the Steelers.

725
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: The number at Fandel is one and a half the Patriots.

726
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 2: If you look at the number other books, we've seen

727
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: already quite a bit of movement on the Patriots to

728
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 2: wind up being a home either a pick them. I

729
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: think the Patriot's going to close as the favorite. So

730
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: if I was gonna bet it early, Fandel's got the

731
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: Steelers laying one and a half at the Patriots, I

732
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 2: would take the home dog.

733
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: Patriots.

734
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 2: They played so poorly in their opener and then went

735
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: down and look, they probably should have lost the game.

736
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 2: If a Chine doesn't step out of bound to the

737
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 2: twenty yard line on that final drive, Dolphins probably win. Instead,

738
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: he did step out of bounds, the Patriots hold on

739
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: and they win the game. But one of the craziest

740
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 2: twelve seconds of my Patriot fandom was watching the punt

741
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: return for a touchdown and then Gibson returning the kickoff

742
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 2: for a touchdown in the biggest like whiplash in the

743
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 2: everything you know, the meme of Mike Vrabel running alongside

744
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: Gibson along the sidelines. I believe in momentum, momentum for

745
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: teams when they get a win like that. I mean,

746
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,479
Speaker 2: there was a lot of people holding their breath after

747
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 2: the loss to the Raiders. They didn't know what this

748
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: team was going to look like. And then Drake May

749
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: performed really really well on the road against Miami. I

750
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 2: know the Steeler defense is really on paper good, but

751
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 2: if Justin Fields can carve up that defense. I think

752
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 2: Drake may can carve up that defense. I'll take a

753
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: home dog Patriot team catching one and a half points

754
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 2: early in the week at the moment to see where

755
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,919
Speaker 2: that number closes, because I think you're going to see

756
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 2: more action on the Patriots and they'll close as the

757
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: favorite against the Steelers. So if you're gonna better early,

758
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 2: I bet the Patriots early up against the Steelers.

759
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, we take it for granted that the Steelers are

760
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 4: going to have a good defense. Well in two weeks,

761
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 4: We've watch them get carved up by Justin Fields, who

762
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 4: then had like three completions through about three quarters in

763
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 4: Week two before getting concussed. And we saw Seattle just

764
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 4: kind of run all over them last week after having

765
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 4: a terrible game running the ball in Week one against

766
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers. So like this Pittsburgh defense is

767
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:20,240
Speaker 4: not what we are used.

768
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 2: To and the offense, okay, I get it, DK Metcalf

769
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 2: and company.

770
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: The Patriots hopefully get Christian Gonzalez back.

771
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 2: I mean this is there's a lot of rumor mills

772
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: and conspiracy theories running around about when the re injury

773
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 2: of the Hamsterring happened for Christian Gonzales because he was

774
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 2: supposed to play the opener and then he was supposed

775
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 2: to play in Week two.

776
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: He didn't play neither one.

777
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 2: So the hope is that he comes back and plays

778
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: in Week three for the Patriots.

779
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: But their pass rush.

780
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 2: Against Tua was tremendous and it's I think it's only

781
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 2: going to get better as they go throughout the season

782
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 2: and get more comfortable in this new defensive system. And

783
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 2: then I thought Josh McDaniels really settled down nicely as

784
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator of the Patriots and gave Drake May

785
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: some easy throws. I thought him, is Deefon Diggs or

786
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 2: starting to develop some type of chemistry together, big third

787
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 2: down catches for Stefan Diggs.

788
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 1: So I home dog Patriots.

789
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 2: I'll take it against the Steelers, a team that generally speaking,

790
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: over my lifetime, the Patriots have owned the Steelers in

791
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 2: big games. So that's one thing that I would jump

792
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 2: on early. Guys, if you like this podcast, do us

793
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: a favor, Hit the like button, hit the subscribe button,

794
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 2: thumbs up, do me a favor on all of that.

795
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 2: We will be back next week, same place, same time

796
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 2: for our week four early NFL bets and survivor picks

797
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,240
Speaker 2: here on the Betting pro YouTube channel.

798
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

799
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 6: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

800
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 6: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

801
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,160
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802
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 6: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

803
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 6: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros

804
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 2: S