WEBVTT - Job Gains Are A Mirage Until Stimulus Runs Out: LaSalle CEO 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.560 along with essential market moving news. Kind a Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.400 and on Bloomberg dot com. I do you want to 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:24.120 point out some other statistics as well? The overall employment 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:27.680 rate does not show the racial disparities. So the black 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.960 unemployment rate, for example, was fifteen point four percent, and 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:35.920 within that men's unemployment in the black community sixteen point 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:39.040 four percent, so much much worse than the overall unemployment 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:41.720 rate at eleven point one percent. Let's bring in somebody 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:45.880 who tries to place people in jobs where they are needed. 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:49.479 Tom Gimball is founder and CEO of LaSalle Network staffing 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.040 and Recruiting agency and it's been going since so it's 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:57.080 seen several business cycles. Tom, thanks for joining. What are 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.639 you seeing the last month or two who's calling you 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:03.640 to find them workers? Well? That's the interesting thing is 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:07.720 business is okay. It's not terrible. It's definitely not pre 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:12.520 COVID levels, but there's not consistency across verticals and per 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.399 you know, I've had my business for almost twenty five years, 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:17.560 and through two thousand one and the two thousand and 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:21.240 eight two thousand nine recovery, UM, you'd see verticals that 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:24.319 we're doing well, and now it just happens to be 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:28.440 company by company depending on how they're staffed and what 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:31.959 their client mixes. And it's really not an a vertical 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.760 industry per se. So what we're seeing across the board, though, 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:39.440 is I t continues and I'm not talking tech companies. 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:43.000 It could be a manufacturing company, but they're hiring technology 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.160 talent continues to be the leader in the in the 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:49.440 fields that are hiring Thomas. So as you look at 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:51.480 some of this data gain a couple of months here, 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:54.280 you've had some uh pretty strong data. Is that is 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:57.920 the labor environment tries to recover here? Is this is 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.240 simply Corporate America kind of bringing back some furloughed workers 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.000 or is this any type of new hiring growth growth hiring? 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.040 I would characterize it. What are you seeing? It's definitely 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:12.280 not growth hiring. It is absolutely dependent on p PP 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:18.400 money and companies having government backed UH finances in order 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:20.760 to bring people back, and I think that's what we're 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.200 seeing is the intersection right now. People say, why is 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.200 the stock market up when there's forty million not thirty 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:29.440 five million people unemployed, And the answer is because we 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:33.240 haven't had a true intersection of suffering from an economic basis. 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:35.240 Even people that haven't been called back, they're getting six 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:39.160 dollars a week unemployment from the federal government on top 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:41.200 of their state unemployment. So they're at forty five to 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:44.040 fifty dollars a year, and well, maybe not hold of 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:47.720 where they were. They're definitely not begging for peanuts in 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:49.360 the parking lot to be able to eat. They can 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:52.360 pay their bills, and so you get these situations of 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:56.280 what we're looking at. Um. Well, the numbers are are mirage. 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:57.919 It's a little bit of smoke and mirrors until we 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:01.600 get the September October numbers. Everything else is is really 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.800 smoking mirrors because of the government funding. So Tom tell 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:07.519 us about the data you collect on people that tell 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:10.080 you they are looking for jobs, actively seeking jobs. I 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:13.359 presume you know you've got roles and roles of people 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:18.359 previous customers and continuing customers. Well, the interesting thing is 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:22.840 is when you have so many service workers, hospitality waiters, waitresses, 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.200 hotel employees, so on and so forth. It's really where 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:28.680 the lines share was. Then in the flip side in 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.080 corporate America, you saw a lot of excess salespeople. So 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:35.040 what companies were doing through a growth market from two 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:38.400 thousand ten to uh, you know, really February of this year, 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.880 is they're hiring an anticipation of business picking up and 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.480 continuing to grow. So companies were hiring more people than 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:48.520 they needed for today, but to be ready for next month, 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.520 next quarter, next year, and get them trained and acclimated. 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:53.600 Those are the people that are now on the street. 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.520 They got let go because the business wasn't there yet. 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.680 And so the hard part is trying to find out 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:01.960 that there's very few companies that say we're gonna do 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:04.120 a downsizing, line up our best people and let's get 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.760 rid of them first, right. That doesn't happen for the 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.360 most part um And and so we've got a lot 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.280 of people that are just confused over where they where. 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.160 They let go because they made too much money and 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.880 companies needed to take a hit, which is true. There's 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.000 a few people like that. I've actually hired some of 0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:22.599 them myself, but but secondarily, there's a lot of people 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:25.560 that maybe weren't even qualified for the jobs. And at 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:28.440 three point five percent unemployment, you get a lot of 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:31.800 companies taking chances to hire people. At eleven percent or 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:34.800 fourteen percent unemployment, companies don't take chances. They only hire 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:38.800 proven commodities. So, Tom, we're starting to see, you know, 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:42.600 in some key states California, Texas, Florida, you know, big 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.040 labor states, kind of seeing some of the virus go 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:48.800 the other way. Uh, you know, states and cities beginning 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.320 to kind of close down once again. Are we going 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:52.719 to see that in the numbers over the next couple 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.240 of months. Are you thinking to what extent? Yeah, I 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:57.039 think we're going to see that quite a bit because 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:00.240 it's coinciding with the p PP money wearing off. And 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.680 even though they extended it from ten weeks to twenty 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.279 four weeks, the majority of companies that took the money 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:06.960 it expired, they used it at the way they were 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.560 supposed to and it's expiring at the expired at the 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:12.360 end of June. And so now what you're having is 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:15.680 an intersection of companies, uh don't have money to pay 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.480 their people from the government. They're not going to have 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:22.760 an influx of business due to quarantine, and business is 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:26.400 being shut down by their state governments. And at the 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:29.360 same time they're going to have no choice for survival 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:31.440 but to lay people off. So I think you're really 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:36.360 at an interesting intersection between the COVID health crisis and 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.520 a false sense of economic security from the government money 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:41.880 starting to run out. It'll be a real interesting third quarter. 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:44.440 What about your own business? How do you work at 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.760 a time like this when companies have such a choice 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:49.880 if they are even able to hire that they can 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:53.000 really just probably put out a help wantedsign literally on 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:57.320 their windows of their properties. Do you also suffer and 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:00.480 how are you managing? I appreciate you asked, So it's 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:02.920 a real interesting dynamic. We we've got about two a 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:06.080 little under two hundred and fifty employees on staff, and 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.320 we haven't laid off a soul at the Sound Network. 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.880 So what we've done is is Number One, we've always 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:14.560 managed the company in a fiscally conservative way to be 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:18.239 ready for situations like this. Number Two, companies are hiring, 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:21.160 You've just got to find the pockets and and that's 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.320 the biggest challenge. And what I've seen more than anything 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:25.920 else in our company is we've always been a culture 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:29.120 first company. And when you have happy people that are 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:32.880 appreciative of the where they work, they're going to execute 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:36.799 the mission in a lot more efficient way than other folks. 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.320 And so we've been able to pick up business. And 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:42.320 we've moved internal recruiters, so we've moved more people to 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:45.280 our I T practice. We've moved them off call centers, 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:47.799 which is slowed down because of the proximity of workers 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.840 in a in a closed in environment. Our supply chain 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:54.000 in our HR practice or human resources practice is picked up, 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.920 and we've moved recruiters into that space. And so you've 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:58.839 really got to do what I call chasing the gap. 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.760 You've got to find where uh the gap and opportunities. 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:05.000 But to your question, um about companies being able to 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.400 run an AD and getting people, that's exactly why they 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.360 need us, because there's too many people applying to a job. 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:13.240 With forty million unemployed people, you run an AD, you're 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:15.720 gonna get hundreds, if not thousands, of people who aren't 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:17.960 qualified for it and you can never get through that 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:20.880 batch on your own. Tom, what is your sense kind 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:26.320 of going forward of uh, maybe how the workforce may change. Um, 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.679 in this country, we've had more and more people working 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:31.360 from home. We've probably had a lot of companies recognizing that, 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:33.880 g we can do this. Do you think there's gonna 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:39.280 be material changes and maybe how companies staff themselves and 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:43.640 and maybe where they elect to have their workers. You know, 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:47.320 there's a there's a couple of different hypotheses on this 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:49.920 that I have, but you know, first and foremost, I 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.160 look at the situation and it's going to be driven 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.440 by company profits. And if companies are going remote with 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.000 workers from home and they're doing well and making money, 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:01.040 they'll stay with it. And when they don't and the 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:04.200 times change, you'll see it reverse no matter what the 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:07.000 situation is, because if you're not making money, that is 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:10.200 the definition of why you're you're in business. UM, So 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:13.720 that that will truly dictate it. Secondarily, though, on the 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:18.520 aspect of work from home, UM, what you're you're gonna 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:22.920 see is if people can work from anywhere, you're going 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:26.680 to hire people that are the least expensive. It's like 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:29.560 off shoring. People didn't off shore to to India or 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:33.040 the Philippines or or what have you because they thought 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:34.880 the work was better. They thought it was cheaper and 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.080 it was acceptable. And so what you're gonna have in 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.880 the same situation is if you can hire a developer, 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.840 if everybody's gonna work from home, why would you pay 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:44.360 somebody two hundred thousand dollars in San Francisco and you 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:47.280 can pay a hundred and ten thousand dollars in Montana. 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.400 And that will affect the real estate markets, the rental 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:54.720 real estate markets, the homeownership in in major metropolitan cities, 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:56.880 and will be a huge ripple effect. I don't think 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.120 work from home. I think two years from now you're 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.880 going to see office back to levels that they were 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:05.199 pre COVID TOM. When you wake out race and your data, 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:09.360 do you notice anything, Well, it's there. There's a there's 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.560 a lot of difference between in race from college degree 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.760 and non college degree and where people are working. And 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:19.839 you have major metropolitan areas that that obviously have a 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:24.480 higher minority standpoint versus more rural areas, and I think 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:27.360 those continue to be issues but that that every company 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:31.200 is going to face. Um the biggest challenge is how 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:35.680 do we get more minorities into colleges to have college 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:40.000 degrees to compete against what's been traditionally a white labor force, 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:41.560 and that's where we spend a lot of our time 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:46.199 with either historically black colleges and universities and state colleges 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.480 that tend to have a higher minority concentration. Hey, Tom, 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:51.920 just quickly, what do you make of this um the 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:55.560 issue about the uh H one B visa issue. How 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:57.640 much of is that going to be a problem for 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.920 U S recruiters. It's a it's a big issue when 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:04.360 you're when you're looking at at tech talent and bringing 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.160 people in and not just traditional like software developers and 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.480 bearing stereotypical like that, but but engineering as well, and 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:14.640 a lot of the STEM type position science, technology, engineering, 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:17.400 and math. There's been a lot of those roles that 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:21.600 have been H one B visa type situations and and 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:24.640 there's really two fold. Number one is having that talent 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:29.040 available and number two, um is the message that it 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.679 sends of diversity and people wanting to come here and 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:36.760 and work. Now, on the flip side of it, if 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.040 that talent is not going to be allowed in the country, 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.360 companies are just gonna off shore the business anyways. And 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:46.360 the majority of big technology companies they have facilities, offices 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.360 or strategic alliances with companies and other countries, and so 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.320 then we're gonna lose the people uh from being here, 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:54.720 and we're actually gonna lose the payroll taxes into the 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:57.120 system because we're just gonna be paying an offshore company 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.240 to do it for us. I think it's a real 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:02.559 detriment uh politics aside. I think it's a real detriment 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.959 to the economy and to getting the best talent in 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:09.200 the world to want to be in America. Tom, thank 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.760 you so much for your insights today. Always just fascinating 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.040 getting insights from somebody who really, you know, is at 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:16.360 the cold face of the labor market and those who 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:19.160 are looking for work. And obviously we're seeing millions and 0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:22.200 millions looking for work right now. Tom Gimbal joining us 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:26.400 their founder and CEO of LaSalle Network. It's based in Chicago. 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:31.880 It's been stuffing and recruiting since and really there are 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:35.440 some messages in what Tom was saying their pole, you know, 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.080 most obviously that this is just not going to end 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.640 anytime soon. There's so many people to be placed. Yeah, 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:44.200 exactly right. Plus you've got the again those big states, California, Texas, Florida, 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:46.600 some others, Arizona, it's going to be, you know, a 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.280 real issue to try to deal with those numbers which 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:51.840 are sure to go the other way here as some 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.600 of those states kind of pulled back on the reopening. 0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.440 So we are talking about this morning's jobs report. It 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:03.720 was eagerly anticipated the number perhaps better than estimates, but 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.600 we should mention that estimates ranged from half a million 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:10.280 to nine millions, so there was really a huge, huge 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.160 disparity in what economists thought was going to be the 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.920 case in this data. Let's bring in an economist now, 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.679 Danielle di Martino Booth. She is CEO and Director of 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:23.360 Intelligence at quill In Intelligence. She's also also Bloomberg opinion 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:26.439 columnist and also author of fed Up, an insider's take 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.840 on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America. Danielle, 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:34.319 thanks for joining. Explain to us what's good about this data. 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.440 Larry Codlow says, it's about the furloughs coming down and 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:43.000 that's going to continue. What else is good about this data? Well, 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:46.480 you know money. The thing is because of the misclassification error. 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:48.200 I think a lot of people in my world have 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.880 started to follow the Department of Labor data that come 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:54.079 out on on a weekly basis, it's much time where 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.360 if you will, and it's not prone to the same 0:12:56.400 --> 0:13:01.160 seasonal adjustment. So if you look at that day against 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.200 the backdrop of a hundred and sixty four point six 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:07.079 million in the US labor force, you see the all in, 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:10.960 including the pandemic unemployment Assistance program, you have thirty one 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:15.360 point five million Americans right now collecting unemployment insurance in 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:19.520 one of the state state and insurance programs or the 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.199 Cares Act extended benefits programs as well. So that is 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.520 a record high number, and that is what I follow 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.560 the most closely because it's a hard number and it's 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.960 it's not prone to seasonal adjustments. It's simply the number 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.840 of Americans collecting unemployment insurance as of the same week 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.200 as the survey week that we saw for the non 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.959 farm payroll data this morning. So, Daniel, you're based in 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:43.439 the Dallas you of a grounds eye view of kind 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:46.120 of what's happening in that state. Give us a sense 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.199 of kind of where you think a state as big 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:52.600 and as diverse as Texas, how is it dealing with 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.760 the resurgence and cases there and kind of how do 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.320 you think that's going to impact employment numbers going forward 0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:59.880 as we think about not just Texas, but Florida and 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:06.080 Californian Arizona and California has just shut down nineteen counties 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:09.040 as well. Uh So, the way I look at this 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:14.400 is is traffic patterns, it's open table reservations, it's Google 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:18.880 trends in terms of individuals looking for unemployment insurance benefits, 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:21.360 and we've seen them pick up for the last few weeks. 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.760 There are very few paying attention to initial unemployment claims, 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:27.920 but they are definitely moving in the wrong direction. They've 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.160 missed the consensus for three weeks in a row, meaning 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:33.240 they've come in higher. And that is what we're seeing 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:36.160 here in Dallas and in other places that are slowing down. 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:39.760 Restaurants are closing back up, bars have obviously closed again, 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.400 and there's much more reticence on the part of a 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.120 lot of people to go out and spend and that 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:48.360 is filtering through to the number of people applying for 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.760 the first time for unemployment insurance exactly. We just literally 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:55.040 a few minutes ago had Nationale Tennessee revert back to 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:59.120 phase two from phase three. So it's happening incrementally around 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:05.200 the country. Done, what are re employment benefits and bonuses, well, 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:09.760 re employment benefits and bonuses are uh A their theoretical 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.280 and some of the things that we've heard thrown out 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.800 would be potentially a four thousand dollar credit to travel 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:20.440 around the country um and go see America. It would 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:22.920 come back to you with your taxes. Basically, what they're 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.120 trying to do is incentivize Americans to come back into 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.000 the workforce, many of whom are making more money today, 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:32.440 making six hundred dollars extra a week that is set 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:36.000 to expire on July thirty one. I truly believe that 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.240 the Democrats are dead set on extending that six hundred 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.520 dollars because of the effect that it would have. And 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:45.320 we as we see one state after another lift rental 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:49.760 moratorium um uh and the national moratorium by the way, 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:55.720 on stead really assisted uh Renters lifts on July. So 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.200 you've got two different cliffs, if you will, for people 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:03.960 who have been relied on stimulus to tie them over. So, Danielle, 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:05.680 give us a sense not given we've got a couple 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.680 more data points here on the labor front. How do 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.000 you think this US economy is going to uh? You know, 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:14.680 presumably we're gonna get this brutal UH second quarter g 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.200 d P print. But how do you expect the remainder 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.360 of the year into two thousand and twenty one to 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:24.480 develop from an economic activity perspective. Well, so I'll be 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:28.000 much more comfortable when I start to see the number 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.960 of people collecting pandemic uneployment assistant claims begin to go down. 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.400 We've had one point eight million added to that in 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:37.960 the data that we have. Last week it was one 0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:42.360 point six million, So these are new entrants. UH Looking 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:46.000 for Cares Act released this Pandemic Unmployment systince last through 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.560 the end of the year, by the way, December thirty one. 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.400 So I'll be happier when I start to see the 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:55.640 number of Americans collecting unemployment decrease, because that means that 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:59.120 you're going to get more velocity and edibility to generate 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.600 growth the on the mathematical bounce that we know that 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.440 we're going to see in the third quarter, even as 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.639 as Goldman Taxes estimated we've closed down the economy a 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.119 few days ago. That preceded, as Vonnie just said, Nashville 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.840 and Miami and nineteen counties in California, you're gonna need 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:19.120 a truly reopen economy. The President would be best served 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.439 to mandate masks, which would get a lot of a 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:28.800 lot more people out and purchasing spending, generating economic activity. Danielle. 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.320 We also had Larry Caudlow a little earlier talking about 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:35.120 helping the restaurant industry, the tourism industry, and the entertainment industry. 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:39.160 You talked about capital gains, moves, investment right offs. How 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.000 do you see that all happening? Will you need a 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:44.480 mixture of everything from from what I just mentioned to 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:48.160 those reemployment benefits and bonuses to a continuation of p PP. 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:52.600 I think you're right. I think it's a combination of 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:55.920 many things. I worry that the relief for the restaurant 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.439 industry is going to come too late because of a 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:02.560 recent YELP survey that found had already made the decision 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:06.679 to close restaurants in America a third of retailers in America. 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.800 These are small businesses. So if they're going to do 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.920 something to try and rescue the restaurant industry as so 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:15.520 much of the country recloses, it's something they need to 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:19.240 do very very quickly. Daniel D. Martino Bouth, thank you 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.920 so much for joining us as always. Danielle As a 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:26.040 CEO and Director of Intelligence at Quill Intelligence, also a 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.840 former advisor at the Dallas Federal Reserve, and also a 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:32.080 Bloomberg opinion columnists and that's not enough. She's also the 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.480 author of the book entitled Fed Up and Insiders Take 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:40.080 on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America the market, Vannie, 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:41.760 you know, it's kind of giving back some of those games. 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.600 We were up about four change on the DAW, now 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:46.600 up about one seventy five. So I think people are 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:50.880 recognizing that while the jobs data was certainly a strong, 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:54.960 strong number, better than expected, it's a you know, backwards 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:57.040 looking number, and maybe going forward the numbers may not 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.800 be as good going forward well. And of course, as 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:02.960 we get you know, local updates throughout the morning from 0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:05.440 various parts of the country, you started sort of worrying 0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:08.720 about coronavirus again, right, and and the surge in some 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.160 areas not even a resurgence, but you know, a first 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:14.560 surge in many areas which were causing which is causing 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:17.399 areas to shot down again. Yeah, exactly right. And as 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:19.919 you mentioned earlier on Nashville, Tennessee, kind of rolling back 0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:22.000 from a phase three opening back to a phase two 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:27.600 so as they get more cautious. This is Bloomberg Markets 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:32.200 with Paul Sweeney and Bunny Quinn on Bloomberg Radio. Well, 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.840 the narrative of the COVID nineteen pandemic really over the 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.320 last week to ten days to two weeks perhaps has 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:42.720 been the surge in cases in key populous states such 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:47.320 as California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, states that had generally been 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.359 lightly touched by this virus in the early stages. To 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:53.280 get a sense of kind of where we are, where 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.080 we're headed. We are so fortunate to have Laurence sour 0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:59.639 with that she's assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at the 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:03.359 John's Hopkins UH School of Medicine. And I might note 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:05.520 that the Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:08.679 Michael Bloomberg, founder Bloomberg ELP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. In this 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:11.680 radio station and TV station, Lauren, thank you so much 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:15.280 for joining us here. Some really grim numbers coming out 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:21.880 of some key populous Sun belt states. What's your take. Yeah, 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:25.359 I think that what we're seeing is the impact of 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:29.040 reopening too soon essentially, um, and I don't think it's 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:32.320 unreasonable dr pat to the other day on UM some 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.040 of his testimony so that he expected that we could 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.160 possibly see a hundred thousand cases here in the US 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:41.120 and UM per day. And and I think I think 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.920 we're headed there. You know, we had a fifty pieces 0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:49.159 day yesterday. And UM, I think the impact of these reopening, 0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:52.800 this new mixing and the wanting so desperately to go 0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:57.000 back to normal is showing its space. The reopenings that 0:20:57.119 --> 0:21:00.240 need to be you know, moved back, need to be 0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:03.359 so down how they contribute to do new spread? Lauren, 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.840 I think we we're still looking at the date on that, 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:11.040 but I do think we are seeing new spread because 0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:14.680 of those reopening, particularly in places like bars and restaurants 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:17.840 and indoor spaces where there is crowding. Um. You know, 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:19.960 there was this rush to get back to normal, and 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:21.880 we're not in a place where we can be back 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:23.960 to normal. And I think this Jon, we sort of 0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:29.200 realize that, and you know, remove the political politicization of 0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:33.040 you know, social distancing and wearing masks and things like that, 0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:35.880 and just look at them as really public health measures. 0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:39.199 The better off will be. So Lauren, there is a 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:42.159 playbook on how to bend the curve, which is a 0:21:42.240 --> 0:21:46.320