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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind a Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. I do you want to

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Speaker 1: point out some other statistics as well? The overall employment

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Speaker 1: rate does not show the racial disparities. So the black

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Speaker 1: unemployment rate, for example, was fifteen point four percent, and

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Speaker 1: within that men's unemployment in the black community sixteen point

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Speaker 1: four percent, so much much worse than the overall unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate at eleven point one percent. Let's bring in somebody

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Speaker 1: who tries to place people in jobs where they are needed.

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Speaker 1: Tom Gimball is founder and CEO of LaSalle Network staffing

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Speaker 1: and Recruiting agency and it's been going since so it's

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Speaker 1: seen several business cycles. Tom, thanks for joining. What are

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Speaker 1: you seeing the last month or two who's calling you

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Speaker 1: to find them workers? Well? That's the interesting thing is

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Speaker 1: business is okay. It's not terrible. It's definitely not pre

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Speaker 1: COVID levels, but there's not consistency across verticals and per

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Speaker 1: you know, I've had my business for almost twenty five years,

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Speaker 1: and through two thousand one and the two thousand and

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Speaker 1: eight two thousand nine recovery, UM, you'd see verticals that

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Speaker 1: we're doing well, and now it just happens to be

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Speaker 1: company by company depending on how they're staffed and what

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Speaker 1: their client mixes. And it's really not an a vertical

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Speaker 1: industry per se. So what we're seeing across the board, though,

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Speaker 1: is I t continues and I'm not talking tech companies.

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Speaker 1: It could be a manufacturing company, but they're hiring technology

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Speaker 1: talent continues to be the leader in the in the

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Speaker 1: fields that are hiring Thomas. So as you look at

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Speaker 1: some of this data gain a couple of months here,

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Speaker 1: you've had some uh pretty strong data. Is that is

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Speaker 1: the labor environment tries to recover here? Is this is

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Speaker 1: simply Corporate America kind of bringing back some furloughed workers

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Speaker 1: or is this any type of new hiring growth growth hiring?

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Speaker 1: I would characterize it. What are you seeing? It's definitely

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Speaker 1: not growth hiring. It is absolutely dependent on p PP

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Speaker 1: money and companies having government backed UH finances in order

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Speaker 1: to bring people back, and I think that's what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing is the intersection right now. People say, why is

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Speaker 1: the stock market up when there's forty million not thirty

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Speaker 1: five million people unemployed, And the answer is because we

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Speaker 1: haven't had a true intersection of suffering from an economic basis.

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Speaker 1: Even people that haven't been called back, they're getting six

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Speaker 1: dollars a week unemployment from the federal government on top

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Speaker 1: of their state unemployment. So they're at forty five to

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars a year, and well, maybe not hold of

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Speaker 1: where they were. They're definitely not begging for peanuts in

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Speaker 1: the parking lot to be able to eat. They can

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Speaker 1: pay their bills, and so you get these situations of

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Speaker 1: what we're looking at. Um. Well, the numbers are are mirage.

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Speaker 1: It's a little bit of smoke and mirrors until we

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Speaker 1: get the September October numbers. Everything else is is really

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Speaker 1: smoking mirrors because of the government funding. So Tom tell

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Speaker 1: us about the data you collect on people that tell

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Speaker 1: you they are looking for jobs, actively seeking jobs. I

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Speaker 1: presume you know you've got roles and roles of people

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Speaker 1: previous customers and continuing customers. Well, the interesting thing is

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Speaker 1: is when you have so many service workers, hospitality waiters, waitresses,

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Speaker 1: hotel employees, so on and so forth. It's really where

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Speaker 1: the lines share was. Then in the flip side in

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Speaker 1: corporate America, you saw a lot of excess salespeople. So

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Speaker 1: what companies were doing through a growth market from two

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Speaker 1: thousand ten to uh, you know, really February of this year,

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Speaker 1: is they're hiring an anticipation of business picking up and

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Speaker 1: continuing to grow. So companies were hiring more people than

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Speaker 1: they needed for today, but to be ready for next month,

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Speaker 1: next quarter, next year, and get them trained and acclimated.

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Speaker 1: Those are the people that are now on the street.

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Speaker 1: They got let go because the business wasn't there yet.

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Speaker 1: And so the hard part is trying to find out

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Speaker 1: that there's very few companies that say we're gonna do

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Speaker 1: a downsizing, line up our best people and let's get

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Speaker 1: rid of them first, right. That doesn't happen for the

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Speaker 1: most part um And and so we've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of people that are just confused over where they where.

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Speaker 1: They let go because they made too much money and

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Speaker 1: companies needed to take a hit, which is true. There's

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Speaker 1: a few people like that. I've actually hired some of

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Speaker 1: them myself, but but secondarily, there's a lot of people

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Speaker 1: that maybe weren't even qualified for the jobs. And at

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Speaker 1: three point five percent unemployment, you get a lot of

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Speaker 1: companies taking chances to hire people. At eleven percent or

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Speaker 1: fourteen percent unemployment, companies don't take chances. They only hire

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Speaker 1: proven commodities. So, Tom, we're starting to see, you know,

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Speaker 1: in some key states California, Texas, Florida, you know, big

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Speaker 1: labor states, kind of seeing some of the virus go

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Speaker 1: the other way. Uh, you know, states and cities beginning

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Speaker 1: to kind of close down once again. Are we going

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Speaker 1: to see that in the numbers over the next couple

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Speaker 1: of months. Are you thinking to what extent? Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think we're going to see that quite a bit because

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Speaker 1: it's coinciding with the p PP money wearing off. And

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Speaker 1: even though they extended it from ten weeks to twenty

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Speaker 1: four weeks, the majority of companies that took the money

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Speaker 1: it expired, they used it at the way they were

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Speaker 1: supposed to and it's expiring at the expired at the

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Speaker 1: end of June. And so now what you're having is

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Speaker 1: an intersection of companies, uh don't have money to pay

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Speaker 1: their people from the government. They're not going to have

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Speaker 1: an influx of business due to quarantine, and business is

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Speaker 1: being shut down by their state governments. And at the

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Speaker 1: same time they're going to have no choice for survival

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Speaker 1: but to lay people off. So I think you're really

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Speaker 1: at an interesting intersection between the COVID health crisis and

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Speaker 1: a false sense of economic security from the government money

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Speaker 1: starting to run out. It'll be a real interesting third quarter.

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Speaker 1: What about your own business? How do you work at

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Speaker 1: a time like this when companies have such a choice

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Speaker 1: if they are even able to hire that they can

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Speaker 1: really just probably put out a help wantedsign literally on

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Speaker 1: their windows of their properties. Do you also suffer and

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Speaker 1: how are you managing? I appreciate you asked, So it's

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Speaker 1: a real interesting dynamic. We we've got about two a

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Speaker 1: little under two hundred and fifty employees on staff, and

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Speaker 1: we haven't laid off a soul at the Sound Network.

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Speaker 1: So what we've done is is Number One, we've always

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Speaker 1: managed the company in a fiscally conservative way to be

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Speaker 1: ready for situations like this. Number Two, companies are hiring,

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Speaker 1: You've just got to find the pockets and and that's

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Speaker 1: the biggest challenge. And what I've seen more than anything

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Speaker 1: else in our company is we've always been a culture

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Speaker 1: first company. And when you have happy people that are

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Speaker 1: appreciative of the where they work, they're going to execute

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Speaker 1: the mission in a lot more efficient way than other folks.

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Speaker 1: And so we've been able to pick up business. And

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Speaker 1: we've moved internal recruiters, so we've moved more people to

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Speaker 1: our I T practice. We've moved them off call centers,

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Speaker 1: which is slowed down because of the proximity of workers

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Speaker 1: in a in a closed in environment. Our supply chain

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Speaker 1: in our HR practice or human resources practice is picked up,

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Speaker 1: and we've moved recruiters into that space. And so you've

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Speaker 1: really got to do what I call chasing the gap.

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Speaker 1: You've got to find where uh the gap and opportunities.

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Speaker 1: But to your question, um about companies being able to

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Speaker 1: run an AD and getting people, that's exactly why they

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Speaker 1: need us, because there's too many people applying to a job.

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Speaker 1: With forty million unemployed people, you run an AD, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get hundreds, if not thousands, of people who aren't

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Speaker 1: qualified for it and you can never get through that

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Speaker 1: batch on your own. Tom, what is your sense kind

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Speaker 1: of going forward of uh, maybe how the workforce may change. Um,

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Speaker 1: in this country, we've had more and more people working

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Speaker 1: from home. We've probably had a lot of companies recognizing that,

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Speaker 1: g we can do this. Do you think there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be material changes and maybe how companies staff themselves and

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Speaker 1: and maybe where they elect to have their workers. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's a there's a couple of different hypotheses on this

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Speaker 1: that I have, but you know, first and foremost, I

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Speaker 1: look at the situation and it's going to be driven

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Speaker 1: by company profits. And if companies are going remote with

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Speaker 1: workers from home and they're doing well and making money,

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Speaker 1: they'll stay with it. And when they don't and the

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Speaker 1: times change, you'll see it reverse no matter what the

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Speaker 1: situation is, because if you're not making money, that is

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Speaker 1: the definition of why you're you're in business. UM, So

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Speaker 1: that that will truly dictate it. Secondarily, though, on the

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Speaker 1: aspect of work from home, UM, what you're you're gonna

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Speaker 1: see is if people can work from anywhere, you're going

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Speaker 1: to hire people that are the least expensive. It's like

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Speaker 1: off shoring. People didn't off shore to to India or

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Speaker 1: the Philippines or or what have you because they thought

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Speaker 1: the work was better. They thought it was cheaper and

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Speaker 1: it was acceptable. And so what you're gonna have in

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Speaker 1: the same situation is if you can hire a developer,

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Speaker 1: if everybody's gonna work from home, why would you pay

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Speaker 1: somebody two hundred thousand dollars in San Francisco and you

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Speaker 1: can pay a hundred and ten thousand dollars in Montana.

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Speaker 1: And that will affect the real estate markets, the rental

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Speaker 1: real estate markets, the homeownership in in major metropolitan cities,

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Speaker 1: and will be a huge ripple effect. I don't think

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Speaker 1: work from home. I think two years from now you're

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Speaker 1: going to see office back to levels that they were

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Speaker 1: pre COVID TOM. When you wake out race and your data,

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Speaker 1: do you notice anything, Well, it's there. There's a there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of difference between in race from college degree

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Speaker 1: and non college degree and where people are working. And

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Speaker 1: you have major metropolitan areas that that obviously have a

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Speaker 1: higher minority standpoint versus more rural areas, and I think

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Speaker 1: those continue to be issues but that that every company

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Speaker 1: is going to face. Um the biggest challenge is how

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Speaker 1: do we get more minorities into colleges to have college

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Speaker 1: degrees to compete against what's been traditionally a white labor force,

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Speaker 1: and that's where we spend a lot of our time

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Speaker 1: with either historically black colleges and universities and state colleges

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Speaker 1: that tend to have a higher minority concentration. Hey, Tom,

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Speaker 1: just quickly, what do you make of this um the

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Speaker 1: issue about the uh H one B visa issue. How

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Speaker 1: much of is that going to be a problem for

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Speaker 1: U S recruiters. It's a it's a big issue when

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Speaker 1: you're when you're looking at at tech talent and bringing

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Speaker 1: people in and not just traditional like software developers and

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Speaker 1: bearing stereotypical like that, but but engineering as well, and

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Speaker 1: a lot of the STEM type position science, technology, engineering,

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Speaker 1: and math. There's been a lot of those roles that

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Speaker 1: have been H one B visa type situations and and

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Speaker 1: there's really two fold. Number one is having that talent

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Speaker 1: available and number two, um is the message that it

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Speaker 1: sends of diversity and people wanting to come here and

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Speaker 1: and work. Now, on the flip side of it, if

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Speaker 1: that talent is not going to be allowed in the country,

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Speaker 1: companies are just gonna off shore the business anyways. And

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Speaker 1: the majority of big technology companies they have facilities, offices

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Speaker 1: or strategic alliances with companies and other countries, and so

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Speaker 1: then we're gonna lose the people uh from being here,

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Speaker 1: and we're actually gonna lose the payroll taxes into the

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Speaker 1: system because we're just gonna be paying an offshore company

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Speaker 1: to do it for us. I think it's a real

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Speaker 1: detriment uh politics aside. I think it's a real detriment

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Speaker 1: to the economy and to getting the best talent in

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Speaker 1: the world to want to be in America. Tom, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for your insights today. Always just fascinating

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Speaker 1: getting insights from somebody who really, you know, is at

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Speaker 1: the cold face of the labor market and those who

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Speaker 1: are looking for work. And obviously we're seeing millions and

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Speaker 1: millions looking for work right now. Tom Gimbal joining us

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Speaker 1: their founder and CEO of LaSalle Network. It's based in Chicago.

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Speaker 1: It's been stuffing and recruiting since and really there are

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Speaker 1: some messages in what Tom was saying their pole, you know,

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Speaker 1: most obviously that this is just not going to end

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Speaker 1: anytime soon. There's so many people to be placed. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: exactly right. Plus you've got the again those big states, California, Texas, Florida,

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Speaker 1: some others, Arizona, it's going to be, you know, a

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Speaker 1: real issue to try to deal with those numbers which

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Speaker 1: are sure to go the other way here as some

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Speaker 1: of those states kind of pulled back on the reopening.

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Speaker 1: So we are talking about this morning's jobs report. It

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Speaker 1: was eagerly anticipated the number perhaps better than estimates, but

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Speaker 1: we should mention that estimates ranged from half a million

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Speaker 1: to nine millions, so there was really a huge, huge

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Speaker 1: disparity in what economists thought was going to be the

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Speaker 1: case in this data. Let's bring in an economist now,

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Speaker 1: Danielle di Martino Booth. She is CEO and Director of

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Speaker 1: Intelligence at quill In Intelligence. She's also also Bloomberg opinion

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Speaker 1: columnist and also author of fed Up, an insider's take

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Speaker 1: on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America. Danielle,

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Speaker 1: thanks for joining. Explain to us what's good about this data.

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Speaker 1: Larry Codlow says, it's about the furloughs coming down and

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Speaker 1: that's going to continue. What else is good about this data? Well,

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Speaker 1: you know money. The thing is because of the misclassification error.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people in my world have

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Speaker 1: started to follow the Department of Labor data that come

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Speaker 1: out on on a weekly basis, it's much time where

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Speaker 1: if you will, and it's not prone to the same

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Speaker 1: seasonal adjustment. So if you look at that day against

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Speaker 1: the backdrop of a hundred and sixty four point six

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Speaker 1: million in the US labor force, you see the all in,

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Speaker 1: including the pandemic unemployment Assistance program, you have thirty one

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Speaker 1: point five million Americans right now collecting unemployment insurance in

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Speaker 1: one of the state state and insurance programs or the

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Speaker 1: Cares Act extended benefits programs as well. So that is

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Speaker 1: a record high number, and that is what I follow

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Speaker 1: the most closely because it's a hard number and it's

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Speaker 1: it's not prone to seasonal adjustments. It's simply the number

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Speaker 1: of Americans collecting unemployment insurance as of the same week

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Speaker 1: as the survey week that we saw for the non

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Speaker 1: farm payroll data this morning. So, Daniel, you're based in

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Speaker 1: the Dallas you of a grounds eye view of kind

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Speaker 1: of what's happening in that state. Give us a sense

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Speaker 1: of kind of where you think a state as big

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Speaker 1: and as diverse as Texas, how is it dealing with

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Speaker 1: the resurgence and cases there and kind of how do

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Speaker 1: you think that's going to impact employment numbers going forward

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Speaker 1: as we think about not just Texas, but Florida and

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Speaker 1: Californian Arizona and California has just shut down nineteen counties

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Speaker 1: as well. Uh So, the way I look at this

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Speaker 1: is is traffic patterns, it's open table reservations, it's Google

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Speaker 1: trends in terms of individuals looking for unemployment insurance benefits,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen them pick up for the last few weeks.

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Speaker 1: There are very few paying attention to initial unemployment claims,

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Speaker 1: but they are definitely moving in the wrong direction. They've

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Speaker 1: missed the consensus for three weeks in a row, meaning

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Speaker 1: they've come in higher. And that is what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: here in Dallas and in other places that are slowing down.

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Speaker 1: Restaurants are closing back up, bars have obviously closed again,

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Speaker 1: and there's much more reticence on the part of a

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Speaker 1: lot of people to go out and spend and that

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Speaker 1: is filtering through to the number of people applying for

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Speaker 1: the first time for unemployment insurance exactly. We just literally

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Speaker 1: a few minutes ago had Nationale Tennessee revert back to

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Speaker 1: phase two from phase three. So it's happening incrementally around

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Speaker 1: the country. Done, what are re employment benefits and bonuses, well,

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Speaker 1: re employment benefits and bonuses are uh A their theoretical

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Speaker 1: and some of the things that we've heard thrown out

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Speaker 1: would be potentially a four thousand dollar credit to travel

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Speaker 1: around the country um and go see America. It would

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Speaker 1: come back to you with your taxes. Basically, what they're

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Speaker 1: trying to do is incentivize Americans to come back into

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Speaker 1: the workforce, many of whom are making more money today,

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Speaker 1: making six hundred dollars extra a week that is set

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Speaker 1: to expire on July thirty one. I truly believe that

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Speaker 1: the Democrats are dead set on extending that six hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars because of the effect that it would have. And

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Speaker 1: we as we see one state after another lift rental

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Speaker 1: moratorium um uh and the national moratorium by the way,

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Speaker 1: on stead really assisted uh Renters lifts on July. So

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Speaker 1: you've got two different cliffs, if you will, for people

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Speaker 1: who have been relied on stimulus to tie them over. So, Danielle,

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Speaker 1: give us a sense not given we've got a couple

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Speaker 1: more data points here on the labor front. How do

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Speaker 1: you think this US economy is going to uh? You know,

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Speaker 1: presumably we're gonna get this brutal UH second quarter g

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Speaker 1: d P print. But how do you expect the remainder

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Speaker 1: of the year into two thousand and twenty one to

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Speaker 1: develop from an economic activity perspective. Well, so I'll be

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Speaker 1: much more comfortable when I start to see the number

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Speaker 1: of people collecting pandemic uneployment assistant claims begin to go down.

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Speaker 1: We've had one point eight million added to that in

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Speaker 1: the data that we have. Last week it was one

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Speaker 1: point six million, So these are new entrants. UH Looking

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Speaker 1: for Cares Act released this Pandemic Unmployment systince last through

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Speaker 1: the end of the year, by the way, December thirty one.

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Speaker 1: So I'll be happier when I start to see the

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Speaker 1: number of Americans collecting unemployment decrease, because that means that

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Speaker 1: you're going to get more velocity and edibility to generate

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Speaker 1: growth the on the mathematical bounce that we know that

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Speaker 1: we're going to see in the third quarter, even as

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Speaker 1: as Goldman Taxes estimated we've closed down the economy a

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Speaker 1: few days ago. That preceded, as Vonnie just said, Nashville

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Speaker 1: and Miami and nineteen counties in California, you're gonna need

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Speaker 1: a truly reopen economy. The President would be best served

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Speaker 1: to mandate masks, which would get a lot of a

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Speaker 1: lot more people out and purchasing spending, generating economic activity. Danielle.

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Speaker 1: We also had Larry Caudlow a little earlier talking about

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Speaker 1: helping the restaurant industry, the tourism industry, and the entertainment industry.

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Speaker 1: You talked about capital gains, moves, investment right offs. How

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Speaker 1: do you see that all happening? Will you need a

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Speaker 1: mixture of everything from from what I just mentioned to

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Speaker 1: those reemployment benefits and bonuses to a continuation of p PP.

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Speaker 1: I think you're right. I think it's a combination of

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Speaker 1: many things. I worry that the relief for the restaurant

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Speaker 1: industry is going to come too late because of a

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Speaker 1: recent YELP survey that found had already made the decision

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Speaker 1: to close restaurants in America a third of retailers in America.

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Speaker 1: These are small businesses. So if they're going to do

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Speaker 1: something to try and rescue the restaurant industry as so

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Speaker 1: much of the country recloses, it's something they need to

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Speaker 1: do very very quickly. Daniel D. Martino Bouth, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for joining us as always. Danielle As a

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Speaker 1: CEO and Director of Intelligence at Quill Intelligence, also a

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Speaker 1: former advisor at the Dallas Federal Reserve, and also a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnists and that's not enough. She's also the

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Speaker 1: author of the book entitled Fed Up and Insiders Take

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Speaker 1: on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America the market, Vannie,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of giving back some of those games.

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Speaker 1: We were up about four change on the DAW, now

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Speaker 1: up about one seventy five. So I think people are

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Speaker 1: recognizing that while the jobs data was certainly a strong,

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Speaker 1: strong number, better than expected, it's a you know, backwards

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Speaker 1: looking number, and maybe going forward the numbers may not

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Speaker 1: be as good going forward well. And of course, as

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Speaker 1: we get you know, local updates throughout the morning from

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Speaker 1: various parts of the country, you started sort of worrying

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Speaker 1: about coronavirus again, right, and and the surge in some

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Speaker 1: areas not even a resurgence, but you know, a first

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Speaker 1: surge in many areas which were causing which is causing

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Speaker 1: areas to shot down again. Yeah, exactly right. And as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned earlier on Nashville, Tennessee, kind of rolling back

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Speaker 1: from a phase three opening back to a phase two

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Speaker 1: so as they get more cautious. This is Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney and Bunny Quinn on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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Speaker 1: the narrative of the COVID nineteen pandemic really over the

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Speaker 1: last week to ten days to two weeks perhaps has

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Speaker 1: been the surge in cases in key populous states such

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Speaker 1: as California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, states that had generally been

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Speaker 1: lightly touched by this virus in the early stages. To

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Speaker 1: get a sense of kind of where we are, where

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Speaker 1: we're headed. We are so fortunate to have Laurence sour

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Speaker 1: with that she's assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at the

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Speaker 1: John's Hopkins UH School of Medicine. And I might note

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Speaker 1: that the Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by

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Speaker 1: Michael Bloomberg, founder Bloomberg ELP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. In this

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Speaker 1: radio station and TV station, Lauren, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us here. Some really grim numbers coming out

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Speaker 1: of some key populous Sun belt states. What's your take. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that what we're seeing is the impact of

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Speaker 1: reopening too soon essentially, um, and I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: unreasonable dr pat to the other day on UM some

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Speaker 1: of his testimony so that he expected that we could

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Speaker 1: possibly see a hundred thousand cases here in the US

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Speaker 1: and UM per day. And and I think I think

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Speaker 1: we're headed there. You know, we had a fifty pieces

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Speaker 1: day yesterday. And UM, I think the impact of these reopening,

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Speaker 1: this new mixing and the wanting so desperately to go

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Speaker 1: back to normal is showing its space. The reopenings that

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Speaker 1: need to be you know, moved back, need to be

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Speaker 1: so down how they contribute to do new spread? Lauren,

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Speaker 1: I think we we're still looking at the date on that,

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Speaker 1: but I do think we are seeing new spread because

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Speaker 1: of those reopening, particularly in places like bars and restaurants

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Speaker 1: and indoor spaces where there is crowding. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: there was this rush to get back to normal, and

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Speaker 1: we're not in a place where we can be back

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Speaker 1: to normal. And I think this Jon, we sort of

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Speaker 1: realize that, and you know, remove the political politicization of

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Speaker 1: you know, social distancing and wearing masks and things like that,

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Speaker 1: and just look at them as really public health measures.

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Speaker 1: The better off will be. So Lauren, there is a

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Speaker 1: playbook on how to bend the curve, which is a

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Speaker 1: term we spoke about a lot early uh in this pandemic.

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Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, some states who

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Speaker 1: really had some success and are continuing to see some

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Speaker 1: pretty good numbers. There's no reason why this can't be

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Speaker 1: applied to other parts of the country, is there. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think that's right. I mean, I think, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have a lot of lessons to learn from places

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Speaker 1: like New York. Massachusetts is doing really well, UM, and

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Speaker 1: I think they've been pretty restrictive on what they're allowing

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Speaker 1: with reopening, and they also have a lot of community

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Speaker 1: buy in around masking and social distancing, and so learning

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Speaker 1: lessons from the states that have gotten it right um,

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Speaker 1: and even some of the states that have had to

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Speaker 1: backtrack and say we thought we were ready and we're not.

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Speaker 1: I think that's critical. One of the challenges is, you

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Speaker 1: know that we have to change our approach if we

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Speaker 1: learn new We may have to change our approach if

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Speaker 1: we learn new information, and communicating that to the public

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Speaker 1: UM is really important. So the message are getting today

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Speaker 1: might be slightly different than the message you're getting tomorrow

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Speaker 1: because we've learned these new things. Yea, where do you

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Speaker 1: go for a new information that you trust to move

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Speaker 1: on the conversation and the research on coronavirus law and

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Speaker 1: other specific places and and is it a day by

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Speaker 1: day thing or it can we really only find new

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Speaker 1: information and amount a month by month basis. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think it is a day by day thing. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of science happening really really quickly, and we have

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Speaker 1: to be a little careful with the science that's coming out.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's been an uptick in the use of

431
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: pre prints, which essentially is is research is being published

432
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: before it's been peer reviewed, and so how we use

433
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 1: that information to make operational decisions has to be you know,

434
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 1: a little better understood. UM. I am partial to the

435
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: Hopkins resources. I think we're doing UM. I maybe a

436
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: little biased, but I think we're doing a lot of

437
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: really good work UM. And you know, there's a lot

438
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: of really good resources on the Hopkins site. And and

439
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:37,679
Speaker 1: I think UM information UH outbreak dot info UM is

440
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: a is a website by scripts that I really like

441
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 1: that UM is calling UM research together and it's been

442
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: really valuable. It's updated regularly, and it's really useful. So

443
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: there's a lot of sites out there. It's just a

444
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: matter of you know, parsing through it. Sometimes it feels

445
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: like information overload, and I think part of that is

446
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 1: because this is so new and were we are adapting

447
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 1: our approach based on new information, that it feels like

448
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: there's this overflows him soul well profession. When I think

449
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: of Johns Hopkins, I think of two things, lacrosse and

450
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 1: world class kind of science medical, uh, you know, knowledge.

451
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,199
Speaker 1: And that's why we're so fortunate to have folks like

452
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 1: you and the other folks at that Johns Hopkins talking

453
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 1: with us. We appreciate that. One question, is this whole

454
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: mask you mentioned, kind of the mask wearing thing. It's

455
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,239
Speaker 1: kind of a second nature for us here in this

456
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: part of the country, but I know in a lot

457
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: of parts of the country it's really not. Does that

458
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: require some type of federal mandate if you will to

459
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: wear masks in public? How do you think you play that?

460
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 1: Yeahs mnate, it would be one option. I think it's

461
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 1: UM those can be challenging to enforce. I think we

462
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: also have to respect the state police powers that give

463
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: the state the um authority to in um enact public

464
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: health measures and health care measures. UM I think the

465
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: biggest thing, honestly is the messaging and the communication around it.

466
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,239
Speaker 1: We're in a bit of a trust vacuum when it

467
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: comes to UM, you know, public health authority and leadership,

468
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: UM and messaging, and we have to find a way

469
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: to make the masking or the pace coverings or even

470
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 1: the physical distancing not about the politics behind it and

471
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: who's supporting what, but about the fact that masks keep

472
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 1: people safe, the evidence of telling us that my mask

473
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 1: is keeping you safe, your mask is keeping me safe UM,

474
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: and together we can protect our most vulnerable communities and

475
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: try to get back to some some of the normality. Lauren,

476
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: our conversations with you are literally are highlights for the day.

477
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 1: So thank you very much for making yourself always available

478
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: even with everything that's going on. Lauren Sower is a

479
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: system Professor of Emergency in Medicine JOHNS Hopkins School of Medicine,

480
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: and I should say she has a Public Health Preparedness

481
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 1: Masters and Homeland Security Management as well, so she really

482
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 1: knows what she's talking about. And that out break dot

483
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: info once again, that website potentially another source of information

484
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: for us. All well, we have an up market, say

485
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 1: off the highs certainly, but certainly uh, you know, up

486
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: about one percent on the SDP and the Dallas. Greg

487
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: was just reporting on the back of those better than

488
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: expected jobs numbers to get a sense of kind of

489
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 1: how we should be thinking about equity investing here today

490
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: and what is a very very uncertain market, very very

491
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:21,439
Speaker 1: uncertain virus uh update where we already got some states

492
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: that are doing well, some states that aren't doing well.

493
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: Barry Ridholts, Bloomberg opinion columnists and host of Masters in

494
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio, was also the founder and chairman

495
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: and chief exact investment officer of Ridholt's Wealth Management. Barry,

496
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. First, I just

497
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: want to start off and kind of how you're thinking

498
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 1: about the markets here. We had a better and expected

499
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 1: jobs number. We've had some talk from Larry Cudlow about

500
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 1: more fiscal stimulus, UM, we've heard from Chairman Pal over

501
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: the last several days. Kind of what's your view right here?

502
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: So the jobs numbers are looking backwards telling us about

503
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: June and and so far in this insane COVID economic era,

504
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: every one of those reports have a giant as risk

505
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: on it. We won't find out what the true numbers

506
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 1: look like for months and months and months, they're they're

507
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: not only going to be revised, but they keep changing categories.

508
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: And I'd rather see a positive number than a negative number.

509
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: But you know, take good or bad, take those numbers

510
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt. Looking forward UM. Originally there

511
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: was a little bit of pushback on the idea of

512
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 1: a stimulus. It wouldn't surprise me if we see maybe

513
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 1: a trillion dollar direct to employee bypassing the company sort

514
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 1: of stimulus, maybe some sort of I can't believe I'm

515
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: gonna say this again. I feel like Charlie Brown trying

516
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: to kick the football from Lucy. But maybe we'll get

517
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: a infrastructure plan and some sort of stimulus. I've been

518
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: wishfully thinking about that every year for I think since

519
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: my bar Mitzvah and and and you know, the market

520
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: clearly is thinking in terms of looking past into UM.

521
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of variables, and it does not

522
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: look like we're doing a fantastic job managing reopening. And

523
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 1: if this gets much worse, I think you're going to

524
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 1: see the economy start UM reflected in some of the data.

525
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 1: So Barry the President earlier on was talking about a

526
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 1: bit of a comeback in Q three, certainly before the election.

527
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: I mean, we all know that that's very likely, except

528
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: for the fact that there is only one direction that

529
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: the economy can go from here, and that's in an

530
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 1: improving direction. Does that mean that markets at records now

531
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: continue to move higher when we actually see improving data.

532
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: I'm going to challenge your thesis, and there is always

533
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: two ways the market can go. We have come way

534
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 1: off the loads of March April May. We're doing so

535
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: much better than we were. If this entire reopening process

536
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: and and and the number of infections continues to spiral

537
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: out of hand, I don't think it's a high probability,

538
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: but it's a real possibility that that we head back

539
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: towards those economic clothes if we don't get this virus underhand.

540
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: Now I only think that's a fifteen possibility. I don't

541
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: think that's the most likely outcome. I I'm more concerned

542
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: about just slipping a little bit and bouncing along kind

543
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: of where we were this month last month, still a

544
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: huge improvement from March and April, but not anywhere near

545
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: where we should be. And a lot of this is

546
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,959
Speaker 1: going to be dependent on how well we manage uh

547
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: the lockdown here in New York, where the numbers have

548
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: gotten so much better. I've spoken to a lot of

549
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: colleagues and neighbors and other people we work with in

550
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: the city, and I'm s arise at how few people

551
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 1: are planning on going back into their offices before January one.

552
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: We just saw a Broadway get locked down for the

553
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: rest of the year. That's but I suppose just development

554
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 1: just I know I'm taking Paul's question here, but I

555
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: guess that's my point, Bari, because if the market isn't

556
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: selling off on some of this, then will it ever

557
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 1: sell off? I mean, what will be the thing that

558
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: gives the market permission to sell off or does it? Well,

559
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: what does the market have to do with the economy.

560
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: I I know that's a glib answer, but when you

561
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: look at the data over history, the at least along

562
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 1: shorter periods of time, obviously, when we see a collapse

563
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: in economic activity, the market has a tendency to follow that,

564
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: and when the economy begins to recover, the market tends

565
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: to presently see that in advance. But that said, um,

566
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 1: you know, back in April I wrote a column April one.

567
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: People thought it was an April fool's joke on maybe

568
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: the OVID nineteen is not a financial or economic events.

569
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a meteor from out of space, and it's not.

570
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: It hasn't derailed the bull market, and we're just gonna

571
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: keep going where we are going as soon as we

572
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: have a little more clarity on a treatment and a vaccine. Um.

573
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: Think back to seven yet, a huge move off of

574
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: the eighty two lows, and the market got she lacked,

575
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: not just that one day, but about a thirty plus

576
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: percent correction, and once the market shook that off, it

577
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 1: kept on going higher and higher until the ultimate peak

578
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: in two thousand. This coronavirus crisis, lockdown and market crashing

579
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: recovery could end up being very parallel to seven. So yeah,

580
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: markets ultimately will respond to profits and and future expectations

581
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: of growth. But but maybe we're looking at this from

582
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: the wrong perspective, and and maybe this isn't the run

583
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: of the mill recessions that we typically see the last

584
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: six to twelve months. The market drops and then we

585
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 1: start all over. Maybe this isn't a reset. Okay, Barry,

586
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: just real quickly, I want to go to your recent

587
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: column because the headline was fantastic, the robots will handle

588
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: your finances now thirty seconds. What do you mean there?

589
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: So run Carson runs the Carson Wealth Group about twelve

590
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: and a half billion dollars and he's a big believer

591
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: that AI and data is going to take us to

592
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: a very different place. Not so much what what he

593
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: describes as the robo advisors, the algorithmic trading and betterment,

594
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 1: well from those sort of things, but an entire new

595
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: approach to UM human computer interaction. You know, once we

596
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: pass the touring test, once the computer is indistinguishable from

597
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: a human when you're interacting over a phone or an internet,

598
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: do you really need a high paid advisor. I think

599
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: wealthy people want to deal with a human and this

600
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 1: is a solution to UM smaller portfolio issues. Carson Ron

601
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: Carson thinks that eventually it will be robots and humans

602
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: working together. It will be fascinating to see what happens

603
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: in the future. Yes, maybe, if maybe you need a

604
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: human that acts like a robot or a robot that

605
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: acts like a human. I'm not sure which would be better. Barry,

606
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 1: It's always fun to chat with You have a wonderful

607
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: fourth of July weekend. That's very Riddle's opinion columns here

608
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg, founder of Adults Wealth Management, and of course

609
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: the host of Masters in Business, the podcast which is

610
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: now in its teen season and it is well well

611
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: worth having to listen to some fantastic Masters in business

612
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: out there. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You

613
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or

614
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm

615
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonny Quinn and All Sweeney I'm on

616
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always

617
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. H