WEBVTT - Trump Says He’s Doubling Tariffs on Canadian Steel, Aluminum 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.480 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.479 Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.840 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:23.480 us live on YouTube. 0:00:24.239 --> 0:00:27.520 Tariff news coming out of Washington, d C. President Trump 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:33.199 raising the tariff on Canadian steal on aluminum from our 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.360 good friends. I like to think still in Canada, and 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:38.120 that is certainly roally in the markets. S and P's 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.000 off six tens a one percent, the nastacs off quarter 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:42.559 one percent. We're gonna break down with a couple of 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:44.879 experts over the next couple of segments. Let's go right 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:46.520 to Joe Dough. He covers all the metals I'm mining 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:51.160 for Bloomberg News. Joe, how much aluminum do we get 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.600 from Canada? I know it's a big deal for them. 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:55.840 Is it a big deal for US consumers? 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:56.640 Yeah, it's massive. 0:00:57.400 --> 0:00:59.880 One of the numbers that we ran out and Richard 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.360 and probably get this a little closer, but it's something 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.120 around seventy percent of the aluminum consumed in the United 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.080 States per year is produced in Canada. 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:08.240 Oh boy, oh boy. 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:12.039 All right, So what's the feeling here within the industry 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:14.520 about what's happening, how the industry might react. 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.319 I think at this point there's quite a bit of 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:21.080 confusion with an industry. I mean, we don't know for sure, 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:23.400 but it's not clear that the President of the United 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:26.520 States had at least telegraph that he might be going 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:31.280 to double the aluminum and steel tariffs. So you probably had. 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:33.840 You're probably having a lot of chatter around boardrooms at 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:39.160 places like Ford and Molten Cores and Budweiser and Coca Cola. 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:41.360 I want to bring Richard Pork He covers the metals 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:44.320 and mining stocks for Bloomberg Intelligence. Richard, give us a 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:47.680 number on kind of how material this is in terms 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.240 of how much aluminum do we in fact steel all 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:52.760 that stuff do we get from Canada? 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:57.960 Okay, so Canada is the number one export as Joe mentioned, 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:01.800 they're also number one export of steel the US aluminum. 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:06.800 It's a much bigger problem because the US doesn't can't 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.679 needs to is that needs doesn't have the capability to 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:17.520 produce aluminum. Because our electricity electricity is number one costs 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:22.919 to produce aluminum, we're not competitive. Electrical Mark energy costs, 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:27.400 So therefore we need to import aluminum steel. On the 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:30.560 other hand, the US imports about twenty percent of its 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:34.840 steel needs. Our look, our analysis shows that maybe a 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:38.680 third of that is steal that the US producers don't 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:42.840 want to produce or maybe can't produce. So therefore, with 0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:47.400 the current industry utilization at around seventy five percent, they 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:50.880 can ramp up and cover a short fall you know 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:54.600 on steel lunum. We don't have that capability. 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:59.080 Ryan Gribrins give stratigue is said another day, another tariff announcement. 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.880 How seriously should we take this? I mean, markets are reacting, 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.320 as we've seen the whiplash the past weeks, But when 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.119 do we know if it's the quote real deal. 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:11.000 Well, you know that's the twenty four dollars dollar question 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:15.720 that everybody's asking. You know, this one sounds like it 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:19.400 was in response to Canada coming with twenty five percent 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:22.919 energy tariff, so I could see it, you know, if 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:26.400 Canada rolls back there tariff, the US rolls back, you know, 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:28.600 maybe back down to twenty five percent. 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.960 Hey, Joe, so you mentioned kind of the people that 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:35.640 actually use a luminium, whether it's a you know, making 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:38.720 a can for beer or soda. Are we hearing anything 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:41.520 from just those types of people, because those are the 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:43.680 ones that can have to deal with as well. 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:48.120 Yeah, I mean the packaging companies in particular are a 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:51.200 little more careful because there's a lot more competition there. 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.240 Like the first time around, I remember hearing from one 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:56.000 of the big beer companies saying, you know, Joe, if 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:59.240 we raised the price of you know, a twelve pack 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:02.200 or a six pack of beers, you know, the other 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:03.880 company would come in and eat our lunch for it. 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:04.080 Right. 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:08.480 However, I was saying earlier with Richard on another segment, 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.160 you know, the Ford CEO came out a month ago 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:15.000 and said these terrafts will blow a hole through the industry. 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:18.799 So I think you are starting to hear more CEOs 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.000 actually be a bit more aggressive with what they're saying now. 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.479 Partly that is because of the bigger concerns that go 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:28.159 beyond just metal terrafts. You know, Mexico and Canada terraces 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:32.520 would be absolutely difficult to handle. But yeah, I think 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.800 you're hearing it from them. Rich Third thirty seconds. What 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.039 if some of any of the companies reacted yet so 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:40.240 far today we him you. 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.919 Know, a Cola on their latest call had kind of 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:47.400 outlied in scenario what they saw would happen, and what 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.880 they saw happen is they would shift their production to 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:54.960 Europe or shift their shipments to Europe, and they expect 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:57.360 a lower tariff country. You have to come in and 0:04:57.560 --> 0:04:59.800 backfill what they didn't do to the US. 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.880 Okay, all right, appreciate getting both of you guys. Jojoe 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:05.360 covers medals of money for Bloomberg News. Richard Boord covers 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:09.040 it from Bloomberg Intelligence side, looking at the companies here, 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:13.000 so again the news President Trump doubling the tariff on 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:17.240 Canadian steel and aluminum to fifty percent, a bigger issue 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:19.480 for aluminums. What kind of what we're learning here. 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:24.360 With you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:27.440 live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarplay and 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:30.720 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:34.560 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.479 Let's sit down to Houston. Right now, Bloomberg Intelligence co 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:41.359 host Alex Steele speaks with Carlisle, chief strategy Officer of 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:44.520 Energy Pathways, Jeff Curry. Let's go to Alex right now. 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:48.960 Hey, Paul, thanks lot, really appreciate it. Jeff, I've been 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.320 asking CEOs for the last day and a half, what 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:53.160 do you do with twenty five percent tariffs? And now 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:54.400 it's going to be what do you do with fifty 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:55.280 percent tariffs? 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:57.280 What's going to happen to the market. 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:00.279 Well, it's pricing it in, you know, copper, you know, 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:02.960 heading towards five dollars a pound right now. But I 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.560 think aluminum is the one to really watch because the 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:09.919 question is can you on shore aluminum. 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:11.200 Production and the answer is absolutely not. 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:14.400 You know, if you think data centers in AI are 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:17.400 power intensive, aluminum smelting is in a whole different world. 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:21.480 It's six times more power intensive per dollar revenue than 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:25.039 AI data centers. So if you're already power constrained, there's 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:26.800 no possible way you're going to bring all of this 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:29.200 aluminum smelting into the United States. 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:31.159 So where do we get most of our aluminum and steel? 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:32.599 Then the refined products, well. 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.040 A lot of it comes from the hydroelectric power up 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.520 in Quebec, so it comes down into the US from that. 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:42.479 So shutting down that cheap source of aluminum supply and 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:47.200 trying to replace it with really expensive produced domestically produced supply. 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:48.920 I think it's going to be a tall ordered ask. 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:51.560 It's been a tough commodity road in the last couple 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:53.360 of weeks. If we did with this moolatility, right oil, 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.359 was it a six month low? That's on recession fears, 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.080 tear fears, growth fears, et cetera. 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.680 What kind of cycle are we in right now? 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.080 Well, I think what we're going through is a huge 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:07.320 shift in the global order around security. And I think 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:09.880 you know what is the response that probably Ontario is 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.360 going to do to these Tariffsy're probably going to cut power. 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:14.400 The governor's already threatened he's going to do it. He 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:18.000 cuts power into the US. Energy security is top of mind, 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:20.680 and I think that's what's going on right now, whether 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:24.520 it's in Germany. Actually Germany, the Norwegians threatened to cut 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.760 power into Germany back in December when a crisis occur there. 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.920 So I think energy security is top of mind for 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:32.440 everybody around the world right now. 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:33.600 Okay, so what does that look like? 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:36.560 Because what's so interesting about commodities is it'll always clear 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:38.440 it a price, right, You'll always buy something. 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:40.840 It just depends on what price you'll buy it. Is that 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:41.520 still true? 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:42.920 Absolutely? 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:45.600 And I think what we're going to start to see 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.440 is that's what's going on with aluminum and copper today. 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:51.720 Is there going to price in a security premium to 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:56.119 make sure you have that supply in your country domestically. 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.840 Protected, in duty paid. 0:07:57.920 --> 0:07:59.840 You're seeing it in gold, and you're seeing it across 0:07:59.840 --> 0:08:02.600 the metal space and then particularly an energy. 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:03.360 We're beginning to. 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.440 See that and I think that that is going to 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:07.720 be the primary driver of the you know, let's call 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:09.240 it the new cycle and commodities. 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:12.080 So it's not geopolitical risk, it's not a green premium, 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:13.520 it's a security premium. 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.280 Correct, you're gonna pay up to produce this stuff at home? 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:18.080 Yep, exactly. That. 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:19.640 That's a humongous shift. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:21.960 It was huge, huge, and it's going to be really 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.400 difficult to do, you know, whether or not. And I 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:26.680 think the argument we take is it's going to be 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.520 a diversified set of energies. 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:31.840 That's why we call it the New Jewel Order. 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:34.400 Is because you're gonna want oil and gas, you're gonna 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:36.959 want renewables, nuclear, you're gonna want everything, and you want 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.720 to diversify yourself because if you lose. 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:40.760 One of those supplies. 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:42.880 You want to be diversified so that you can deal 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:46.040 with that that disruption. And I think the key point 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:49.000 here is when we think about fossil fuels, why do 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:51.920 we like fossil fuels so much, is because they're tradable, 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:55.600 they're portable, they're stortable, and they have high energy density, 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:57.920 which is why we move them around the world. Those 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.200 same reasons we like them, it's the same reasons so 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:02.560 dangerous because somebody can just take them from you. And 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:05.839 so when we think about what's driving I think this 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.640 new environment we're living in, let's call it peak trade 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:11.840 instead of you know peak. 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:14.200 Actually, look at the evolution of peak oil. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.719 It started out peak supply, we're going to run out 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.400 a supply, and then peak demand. We got too much 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:22.000 of the stuff, so we need to reduce you know, 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.840 the emissions. And now it's peak trade, meaning I can't 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:25.760 get my hands on it. 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:27.640 So it's going to be really interesting then, is if 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:30.599 we get a piece in the Ukraine War, what happens 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.360 with Germany and Europe and buying Russian gas. 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.400 They're going to be hesitant, they'll probably take a little bit. Yeah, 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:38.800 they're still buying it, but they're going to diversify their sources. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.720 And I think that's the key message here is diversify 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:45.079 your sources so you're not so dependent on one supplier 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:46.200 one type of energy. 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:48.559 And I like to point out what is the best selling. 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:51.760 Car out there, a PHEV, a plug in hybrid. Why 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:55.120 because it operates off oil, gas, solar, wind, nuclear, the 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:56.559 entire gambit. 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:57.520 Of all the energy sources. 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:00.240 And I think that that type of diversity is to 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:01.680 be key in this new jewel order. 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:03.520 Okay, So if I'm looking at prices in general, like 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.520 does the band move up? 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.960 Do prices become more volatile? Do they move down? Like 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.320 if I'm looking at say oil or copper, what's my 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:12.040 trading band? 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:14.960 I think that the volatility is going to explode across 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.440 all these markets. You're already seeing it in power and 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.560 the metals and across the space. 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:21.920 That's going to lead to a higher average price. 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.760 By the way, the volatility then discourages the MS made 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.000 I don't want to invest in this thing is too volatile. 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:30.199 Lower investment creates more volatility, and it just feeds off 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:30.760 of itself. 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:33.320 You're one of the first to invent the word supercycle, 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.080 right I mean have big supercycles. There's big ups, there's 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.640 big downs, and there's an investment cycle that goes with it. 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:40.760 Are we no longer in that, you know? 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:42.520 I think that's a great question. 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:48.199 And those supercycles before were created by demand pull creating 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:52.520 big shortages, created these big trends that created that supercycle. 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:54.560 This one's a malinvestment cycle. 0:10:54.800 --> 0:11:00.439 It's industrial policy push which creates pockets of ince is 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:01.000 like to call it. 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.560 It's like a bubbling cauldron, a little mini. 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.480 Supercycles everywhere, and you get these high volatility and that's 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.120 what we're seeing. By the way, the opportunity for investors 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.679 in this environment is phenomenal. In fact, one of the 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.280 themes going around here in Seer Week is the oil market. 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:19.280 And these markets are micro bullish but macro bearish, So 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:22.480 that micro creates these little opportunities inside there that you 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:23.600 can take advantage of. 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:25.839 But you don't get that big upward trend. 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.800 And I think this bubbling cauldron of a little supply 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.000 and demand imbalance is probably the best way to distry. 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.280 Does it change the time horizon for investments or the 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.120 return for those investments When. 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:39.120 We think about long term investments, it's going to provide 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:40.800 a very similar return. 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:42.040 But you've got to manage that risk. 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.600 And I think that that's the real the message here 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:48.480 we think about you know, the focus before was on 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:50.000 levelized cost of energy. 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:53.960 Get the l COE down. We got it down, but 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.520 we were unable to deliver the jewels. So you think 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:57.280 about Germany. 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:02.199 It got its levelized cost, but it could only produce 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:06.560 the power when the wind blue or the sunshine. Now 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:08.920 the focus is on that delivered jewel. You can think 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:13.560 about Now the focus is on Roe instead of LCOE. 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.960 And so get another way to say it is dispatched 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.839 power that goes through the consumer is opposed to a 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:21.559 centralized production of power. 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:22.360 Okay, fascinating. 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:24.920 One more quick question, because you're you and it's an 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:28.760 oil conference, what's the lowest price of oil you think 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:29.600 we're going to see this year? 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:32.960 And what's the highest? Totally bad question. 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:35.600 I think that's a great question because about this drill, 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.559 baby drill, we're sitting on the bottom of the cost structure. 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.600 You already see it, drillings coming off. You know, you 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:44.079 know all the OPEC countries are under pressure. 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:45.480 Yeah, maybe you can get. 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.920 Down into the low sixties or something like that. I 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.240 would argue you know, the markets to the upside. You know, 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.600 looking at the amount of investment out there. Inventories are low, 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:55.959 by the way, and now you put the security premium, 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:57.840 people are going to be scrambling to get the barrels 0:12:57.880 --> 0:12:59.600 bringing in and I think that that's going to get 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:00.560 to be the key message. 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.880 Jeff, always a pleasure. Love chatting with you. 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:04.480 Is always going to co w at Siah as well, 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:08.559 Jeff Curry, Carlisle, chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways. 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.080 Paul back to you, all right, Alex, thank you so much. 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:12.880 We appreciate that. Bloomberg Intelligence co host Alex Steele speaking 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.880 with Carlisle, chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Jeff Curry. 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:22.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.480 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple coarcklay and Android 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.760 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.920 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.240 Let's head down to Houston, Texas h Town, as they say. 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.800 Bloomberg Intelligence co host Alex Steele speaks with Carlisle. I'm 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.160 sorry that was the last moment. Speaks with Total Energy 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:47.719 CEO Patrick Puyoni about the French oil company. Let's go 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:52.240 to Alex right now, Alex, all right, thanks. 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:53.680 So much, Paul, I appreciate it. Right I'm here with 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:57.360 Patrick Preona. He's chairman and CEO of Total Energies. And 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:00.240 the amazing thing about Total it's a European energy company, 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:02.560 but it uses its money from oil and gas to 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.640 do stuff in power and alternative energy. That's a model 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:08.280 that not a lot of other companies actually subscribe by. 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.280 So it's great to get your perspective. Patrick, thank you 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:11.160 so much for joining me. 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:12.520 Thank you for welcoming me. 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.960 News of today, we just heard that we have an 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:20.280 emergency electricity issue in the United States. President Trump is 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.280 now declaring fifty percent tariffs. I'm still on aluminum imports 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.400 from Canada. Your reaction to a. 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:29.000 Trade war, I think it's that I think this war should. 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.000 I hope it will hand quickly. I think it's better 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:34.360 not to have wars, to be honest. Maybe it's a 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:40.200 tactic to negotiate, and I think, honestly, there are all 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.640 these economies are interconnected. In facting in North America, you 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.920 know in many ways the cars or bots, et cetera, 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.800 including by the way electricity you know, of course you 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:54.440 the northeast of the US are receiving electricity from the 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.560 idea of Canada for the benefit of the citizens, so 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:01.920 they have a lot of issues. I understand a about drugs, migrations, 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:02.280 it's not. 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:03.360 Only about trade. 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:06.040 So my view is that as a global ward company, 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.680 it's better to hope if you will take be so quickly, 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.080 that's all what I can hope in the benefit of 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:14.800 all the parties. And like it was for Trump, and 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:17.680 I remember it was a debate at the end. Maybe 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.520 the shortest would be the better for everybody, including by 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:21.920 the way, for the US economy. 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:24.960 Does it make you think two or three times about 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:26.400 investing in the United States? 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.320 No, No, because I'm an energy company. 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:30.400 Energy. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:34.560 It's a nice country for energy. You have the cheapest gas, 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:35.840 you have oil. 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:37.080 We can explove, we. 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:41.720 Can develop in the electricity booming market of xtricity. 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:42.680 You need more electricity. 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.440 It's gonna cost more now now, Yeah, but it's good too. 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:48.200 We can build gas plants, cheap gas gas. Five poor 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.320 plants we are building also in Texas. Were in Texas today. 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.040 I have five giga webs or solar plants. It was 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.920 easy to build here because you have a lot of space. 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:02.000 Combining plants with gas plants, it's a nice way to 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.440 produce more equicity. So for me, the US is a 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.480 large market and we are ready to invest in the US. 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:09.760 I understand that. 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:11.840 The only point is that if we need to reshure, 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.480 for example, all the solar panels that we use on 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:16.600 our neway board films, why not. It's just a little 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.440 more expensive, so the customers will have to pay somewhere. 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.800 So not you, but the end market. Yeah, okay, but 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:24.680 then let's just tackle say after win for. 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:27.520 A second, I put it in the pools. 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.040 A pause or like the garbage. 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:31.360 Pine not garbage pause. 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.920 We got a concession for fifty years, okay, So I 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:38.040 understand during the next four years no way to obtain 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.160 any federal license. So I don't want to spend my 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:41.960 time to lose my time my team, so I don't 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:44.080 need to spend pay money to spend money for that. 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:45.800 So we say no, we put a poose. 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.520 We have reduced our teams to minimum, and then four 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.840 years we'll see if federal GLD policies are changed. 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:55.480 Are you worried about any existing leases that you currently 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.680 have and operating for wind and solar I was talking 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.680 to the Secretary of the Interior, who didn't who didn't 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.800 rule that out? To do what to take away those leases? 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:05.880 To take away the leases, but the leazes, it can 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.520 manage that on federal lands, so I check. I have 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:11.120 no leazies on federal lands. So and by the way, 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.119 in Texas there is no federal lands or most so 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:15.679 no that we make. We make our due diligence. So 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.520 we are fine. And I think, honestly when I discuss 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:20.199 by the way, lund mask is a big fan of 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.879 solar and batteries for good reasons, so I think, and 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.119 we will see the debate. I trans choose the debate 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:28.960 the Congress and the Senate would be interesting with the 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:30.080 reconciliation bill. 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:31.399 So that's clue. 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:32.760 But for the time, I mean, we will wait to 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.240 see what are the new physical conditions to develop solar 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:38.000 in the US. But you know there are a lot 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:41.639 of red states where we develop new way bores. And again, 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:46.600 what the priority for Trump administration is. We want more 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.040 electricity for AI for data centers. 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:52.560 It's all of the above. More electricity is gas. 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:55.080 It could be nuclear, but it could be also were 0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:56.000 bares with batteries. 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.000 So I'm optimistic. 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.280 I think at the end common sense in the US, 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:05.400 but have observed at the end business interests are always respected, 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:10.280 and you have a fundamentalism. Trum is very business friendly, 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.840 So why not for energy, which is the core of 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:15.840 all the program for golf. 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:18.040 Okay, so I'm optimistic. 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.360 Globally though, I mean, we're looking at starts taking a hit. 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:24.159 The sentiment's not great. They're worries about recession, either in 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.159 the US or elsewhere because of terrorsts are using any. 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:27.800 Indication of that. 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:31.240 Yeah, but what because you know what people ate, it's uncertainty. 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:35.160 What has been created is uncertainty. We've all these started 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:37.119 for us. So suddenly we don't like the markets. The 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:39.560 stock markets do not like. We don't know what we go. 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.760 So putting the caroos is a nice way to negotiate. 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.360 I can use it myself from time to time. I'm 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:48.680 not a big I'm not sure obtaining the good reserves. 0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:50.719