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Speaker 1: The always tense mood between the US and Iran has

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Speaker 1: appeared to lift, at least slightly, since the two nations

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Speaker 1: announced the details of a painstakingly negotiated deal. Iran and

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Speaker 1: the US will both release prisoners, and the US will

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Speaker 1: unfreeze some Iranian oil profits.

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Speaker 2: Washington reportly agreed on a partial transfer of the Iranian

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Speaker 2: funds locked in South Korean banks under US sanctions via Switzerland.

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Speaker 2: According to a senior official that South Korea's foreign ministry,

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Speaker 2: the US has in effect accepted the plan, though discussions

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Speaker 2: still remain on the exact method of transfer.

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Speaker 1: The question is why is this happening and why now.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Courtney McBride has been reporting on this story, and

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Speaker 1: whether it's a one off arrangement or if it hints

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Speaker 1: at a broader diplomatic effort behind the scenes.

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Speaker 3: The administration emphasizes that this is a separate issue from

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Speaker 3: any kind of nuclear negotiations, but they are somewhat linked.

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Speaker 1: And later I speak with a run expert, Ali Vayez

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Speaker 1: of the International Crisis Group.

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Speaker 4: In general, this is a very fragile process, but if

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Speaker 4: it is completed and concluded successfully, I think it is

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Speaker 4: likely to become a gateway for more dialogue.

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Speaker 1: I'm wes Ksova today on the big take what Tehran

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Speaker 1: and Washington hope to get from this agreement. Courtney, nice

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Speaker 1: to have you back.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you were willing to do this because I

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Speaker 1: have a million questions about this story. Even by State

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Speaker 1: Department standards, they don't really like to divulge a lot.

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Speaker 1: They seem to be really cagy about describing what is

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Speaker 1: going on with this deal. So what do we know?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, I think both the State Department and the White

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Speaker 3: House are being very cautious. Have been situations previously where

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Speaker 3: they thought they had gotten to the finish line and

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Speaker 3: everything collapsed. And so particularly because you have several American

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Speaker 3: citizens who've been detained for a very long time in Iran,

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Speaker 3: they just don't want to say the wrong thing and

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Speaker 3: upset the Apple card, if you will. Last week, four

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Speaker 3: American citizens were moved from prison to house arrest. A

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Speaker 3: fifth was already on house arrest, and the plan is

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Speaker 3: for those five ultimately to come home Tea the United States.

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Speaker 3: In concert with these releases, South Korea is going to

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Speaker 3: release six billion dollars of Iranian oil profits that have

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Speaker 3: been frozen since twenty nineteen. That money will be transferred

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Speaker 3: to an account that the Iranians can access to buy

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Speaker 3: humanitarian and other goods that are not subject to US sanctions.

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Speaker 3: Once that money is in hand, Iran will allow the

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Speaker 3: Americans to return home. That is expected to happen in September,

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Speaker 3: in a move that the US government is claiming is

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Speaker 3: not linked is not part of a swap. Iranians held

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Speaker 3: in the United States are going to be released from prison.

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Speaker 1: Courtney. Who are the Americans who've been held in prison?

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Speaker 3: Three of them have been publicly identified and are pretty

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Speaker 3: well known, but two others have requested that their names

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Speaker 3: remain private at the moment, so the administration is not

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Speaker 3: releasing their names, even though there has been some reporting

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Speaker 3: about them. The Iranian government has a fairly long history

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Speaker 3: of seizing dual nationals Iranian Americans and charging them with

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Speaker 3: spurious espionage crimes. So some of the Americans who are

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Speaker 3: in custody now and have been moved to house arrest

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Speaker 3: have been held by Iran for as long as eight years.

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Speaker 1: So those are the Americans who are the Iranians the

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Speaker 1: US is holding.

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Speaker 3: This is another complication or mystery as part of this

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Speaker 3: arrangement is that the Americans haven't indicated which Iranians the

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Speaker 3: Iranian government is interested in getting back.

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Speaker 1: And why is this happening now?

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Speaker 3: The big impetus appears to be the movement of the money.

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Speaker 3: The US has tried, through successive administrations to get these

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Speaker 3: people home. The administration emphasizes that this is a separate

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Speaker 3: issue from any kind of nuclear negotiations, but they are

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Speaker 3: somewhat linked there. You know, those talks are happening in

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Speaker 3: parallel indirectly, as the US and Iran do not have

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Speaker 3: diplomatic relations. The movement of the money which South Korea

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Speaker 3: is transferring to accounts and cutter that the Iranians can access,

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Speaker 3: is really the piece that allows the Americans to move

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Speaker 3: out of prison and eventually home.

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Speaker 1: And why is South Korea involved?

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Speaker 3: South Korea purchased oil from Iran using waivers from US sanctions,

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Speaker 3: and under the US law, that money had to be

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Speaker 3: held in accounts that Iran could use only to purchase

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Speaker 3: certain types of goods. And now that money is finally

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Speaker 3: moving now the US.

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Speaker 1: As you said, is saying that this money can only

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Speaker 1: be used for certain purposes. But Iran came out publicly

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Speaker 1: and said Nope, They're free to use the money for

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Speaker 1: anything they want.

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Speaker 3: Iran may try to spend the funds in other ways.

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Speaker 3: Not only Iran, but any companies or banking institutions that

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Speaker 3: would do business with them are subject to sanctions, and

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Speaker 3: so I think any of their counterparts might be reticent

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Speaker 3: to do any of those transactions.

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Speaker 1: For fear of running a file of US sanctions. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: what is the US said about the reasons they're doing this.

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Speaker 3: The Biden administration and the Trump administration before it have

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Speaker 3: really emphasized the need to bring home Americans who are

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Speaker 3: wrongly detained abroad. That is the primary, in some ways,

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Speaker 3: the only reason that they have stated for trying to

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Speaker 3: bring these folks home.

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Speaker 1: So Iran obviously wanted to get this money unlocked. The

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Speaker 1: US wanted to get these prisoners released. But is there

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Speaker 1: something more going on here? Is this a thaw in

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Speaker 1: US Iranian relations for a particular purpose.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't go so far as to call it a thaw,

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Speaker 3: but there is a sense that the nuclear issue, which

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Speaker 3: has loomed over the relationship for some time, is a

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Speaker 3: component of this deal. You know, while the US in

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Speaker 3: particular is careful to say that the issues are separate.

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Speaker 3: The Iranians have said that this opens the door for

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Speaker 3: wider negotiations. You know, the US had tried for some

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Speaker 3: time throughout the Biden administration to get Iran to return

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Speaker 3: to compliance with the twenty fifteen International Nuclear Agreement, from

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Speaker 3: which the Trump administration withdrew in twenty eighteen. Those talks

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Speaker 3: ultimately went nowhere, despite a lot of intervention by even

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Speaker 3: the European Union Foreign policy chief. But there is some hope,

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Speaker 3: it seems, on both sides, and the Iranians have said

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Speaker 3: this publicly that should this prisoner agreement and the release

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Speaker 3: of the Iranian funds from South Korea proceed as planned,

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Speaker 3: that this could open the door to some sort of

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Speaker 3: negotiation on the nuclear issue.

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Speaker 1: And what is the status of Iran's nuclear program.

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Speaker 3: It is somewhat opaque, in part because Iran has not

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Speaker 3: complied with the International Atomic Energy Agency's monitoring efforts, and

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Speaker 3: so one of the criticisms of the Trump administration's decision

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Speaker 3: to withdraw from the deal is that it somewhat blinded

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Speaker 3: the international community to the status of the Iranian program.

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Speaker 1: Because when the deal was underway, Iran had to let

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Speaker 1: inspectors in and they were able to see what they

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Speaker 1: were doing or not doing correct.

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Speaker 3: Not only were their inspection requirements, but then Iran was

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Speaker 3: somewhat constrained in what it could do in terms of

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Speaker 3: enriching the uranium that it would use for what it

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Speaker 3: called peaceful nuclear purposes and what the international community regarded

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Speaker 3: as a weapons program.

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Speaker 1: Because Iran still insists that they have no intention of

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Speaker 1: building a nuclear weapon, that's correct, but the evidence would

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Speaker 1: strongly suggest otherwise it would.

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Speaker 3: There have been reports that Iran has continued to enrich

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Speaker 3: uranium to a level that would bring it closer to

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Speaker 3: achieving a nuclear weapon, though more recently there's speculation that

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Speaker 3: Iran has actually pulled back, perhaps an anticipation of making

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Speaker 3: a deal with the United States or other Western countries.

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Speaker 1: You said earlier that Iran indicated that it would want

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Speaker 1: to return to the nuclear deal. Do you think they're

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Speaker 1: open to that?

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Speaker 3: Yes. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that this could

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Speaker 3: pave the way for a nuclear agreement. There are no

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Speaker 3: specifics on what that could entail, and I think that

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Speaker 3: any sort of agreement which would involve concessions on either

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Speaker 3: side is politically unpalatable or at least challenging in both countries, and.

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Speaker 1: Why would Iran be so eager to return to that deal.

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Speaker 3: The twenty fifteen deal at least opened the possibility of

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Speaker 3: greater integration into the Internet sational economy and removing some

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Speaker 3: US and international sanctions that had been crippling to the

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Speaker 3: Iranian economy. The Trump administration's withdrawal and the maximum pressure

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Speaker 3: campaign that followed really harmed the Iranian economy. That six

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Speaker 3: billion dollars in funds that stand to be released from

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Speaker 3: South Korea are really critical right now after months of

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Speaker 3: economic challenge and internal turmoil in Iran.

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Speaker 1: Much as Iran might like to return to this deal

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Speaker 1: that the US pulled out of under prison and Trump,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of resistance to that in Washington. Do

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Speaker 1: you think it's at all plausible that the US and

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Speaker 1: Iran could return to the table.

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Speaker 3: That would be a hugely challenging for the administration. There's

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Speaker 3: opposition on both sides of the isle. In Congress. The

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Speaker 3: conventional wisdom seems to be that right now, a status

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Speaker 3: quo with reduced or low level Iranian enrichment and minimal

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Speaker 3: malign activity within the region by Iran and its proxies

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Speaker 3: in other countries is the best that the administration can

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Speaker 3: hope for until after the twenty twenty four elections. The

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Speaker 3: phrase we hear a lot in our reporting is kick

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Speaker 3: the can down the road, that the administration is really

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Speaker 3: just hoping to buy time, and then perhaps in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five, should President Biden be reelected, it could attempt

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Speaker 3: a more robust, long term deal with Iran.

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Speaker 1: What's been the response in Washington to the announcement of

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Speaker 1: the release of these US prisoners and the money transfer.

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Speaker 3: There's been a lot of criticism of the administration for

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Speaker 3: making what some would term end run around Congress, the

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Speaker 3: idea that any sort of negotiation really needs congressional approval,

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Speaker 3: even though this is not a treaty or anything that

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Speaker 3: would require the advice and consent of the Senate, for instance.

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Speaker 3: That being said, I think even those who would criticize

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Speaker 3: the administration for the way it has proceeded here are

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Speaker 3: of course publicly glad to see that American citizens are

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Speaker 3: being released from a notorious prison in Iran. Because the

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Speaker 3: administration hasn't explained exactly what's happened or what the planned

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Speaker 3: sequence of events is, and the fact that the money

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Speaker 3: is actually Iran's in the first place. His critics are

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Speaker 3: able to say that the US is paying off Iran,

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Speaker 3: that Iran is getting six billion dollars in ransom payments.

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Speaker 1: Where do you think this goes from here? Courtney?

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Speaker 3: The administration is not going to speak publicly about this.

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Speaker 3: The word from them has been that after the Americans

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Speaker 3: are safely on US soil, or at least out of Iran,

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Speaker 3: we should not expect much information. The focus really seems

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Speaker 3: to be getting to that step where the American citizens

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Speaker 3: are safely out of Iran, and at that point they

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Speaker 3: will explain a little bit more of how things fell

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Speaker 3: into place.

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Speaker 1: And maybe how this could be part of something larger potentially.

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Speaker 3: Yes, all of those conversations seem to be happening quietly,

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Speaker 3: but one of the real challenges in the nuclear negotiations

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Speaker 3: has been that Iran and the United States do not

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Speaker 3: speak directly. There are always intermediaries, you know, as anyone

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Speaker 3: who's played a game of telephone knows that can complicate

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Speaker 3: messaging and communication.

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Speaker 1: Courtney, thanks so much for coming back on the show.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, always a pleasure.

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Speaker 1: After the break, how Iran's leaders view this agreement. Obviously

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Speaker 1: a lot going on here, and as Courtney says, the

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Speaker 1: US has been pretty tight lift about the details. The Iranians, though,

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Speaker 1: have been a bit more talkative. So let's take a

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Speaker 1: closer look at why Iran's leaders were eager for this

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Speaker 1: deal to come together and what else they may hope

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Speaker 1: will come a bit to do that. I asked Ali

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Speaker 1: Vayez to come back on the show. Is the director

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Speaker 1: of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group I

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Speaker 1: think tank here in Washington. Ali, thanks for coming back.

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Speaker 1: It's good to see you again.

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Speaker 4: Great pleasure.

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Speaker 1: So last time we spoke, it was about the internal

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Speaker 1: turmoil within Iran with the protests, and now we have

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Speaker 1: something entirely different, this agreement between the US and Iran.

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Speaker 1: You don't see that very often. Can you help explain

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Speaker 1: just exactly what's happening here.

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Speaker 4: I think the two are connected in the sense that

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Speaker 4: as of last October, about a month after the protests started,

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Speaker 4: I think the US intelligence community came to the conclusion

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Speaker 4: that the protests do not pose an existential threat to

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Speaker 4: the regime. Bill Burns, the head of CIA, Avriel Haines,

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Speaker 4: the Director of National Intelligence. They both came out and

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Speaker 4: publicly shared this assessment with members of Congress. So, if

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Speaker 4: you're divide and administration and you come to the conclusion

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Speaker 4: that the regime is here to stay, you have to

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Speaker 4: deal with some matters of priority, and the fate of

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Speaker 4: American hostages in Iran, of course, is one of the

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Speaker 4: key issues, as is some of Iran's most problematic activities,

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Speaker 4: including its nuclear program. And according to reports, that's when

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Speaker 4: direct contacts were established between US envoy for Iran and

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Speaker 4: Run's ambassadre at the United Nations, and apparently that led

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Speaker 4: as of this spring, to proximity talks in Oman about

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Speaker 4: how to de escalate tensions between the two countries. And

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Speaker 4: take into account that if the two sides were hesitating

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Speaker 4: about whether this is necessary or not. In March they

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Speaker 4: came very close to finalizing a detained deal. Then there

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Speaker 4: was a military confrontation between Iran and the US and

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Speaker 4: Syria that resulted in the first American fatality under prison

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Speaker 4: Biden's tenure, and that resulted in the talks being derailed,

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Speaker 4: the detaining negotiations being derayed for several weeks. That shows

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Speaker 4: to you how the two key priorities for the US administration,

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Speaker 4: the American hostages and regional developments or around nunclear program

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Speaker 4: are interlinked, even though the administration would like to tackle

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Speaker 4: them separately, but the linkage is undeniable.

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Speaker 1: What specifically does the US hope to come out of

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Speaker 1: this and what does Iran want to come out of this?

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Speaker 4: Look I think both sides do not want a conflict

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Speaker 4: for different reasons. I think the US primarily for political

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Speaker 4: reasons because Biden administration's number one priority is the president's

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Speaker 4: re election in the coming year and a half. And second,

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Speaker 4: they're dealing with a major crisis in Ukraine that absorbs

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Speaker 4: almost all the oxygen in the room. But they also

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Speaker 4: have other concerns, including tensions with China over Taiwan. The

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Speaker 4: last thing they want is a nuclear crisis in the

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Speaker 4: Middle East that could result in a military confrontation in

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Speaker 4: an election year. And I think the Iranians too do

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Speaker 4: not want a conflict, but mostly for economic and security reasons.

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Speaker 4: Iran is now coming out of months of turmoil and

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Speaker 4: Iran has parliamentary elections in March of twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 4: and it's really struggling economically, although they have survived under sanctions,

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Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean they're thriving. In fact, they're experiencing

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Speaker 4: the highest inflation rate historically in Iran. The currency has

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Speaker 4: been devalued, and so they need a degree of common stability,

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Speaker 4: and I think that's why interests of both sides have

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Speaker 4: aligned to move towards not a deal necessarily that would

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Speaker 4: be a would amount to a major diplomatic breakthrough restored

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Speaker 4: the twenty fifteen nuclear deal, but an understanding that would

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Speaker 4: at least keep the status go between now and November

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty fourth until they both know who the next

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Speaker 4: US president is going to be.

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Speaker 1: There are always so many layers to this. In this case,

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Speaker 1: we have the unusual appearance of South Korea as being

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Speaker 1: central to this deal. You don't often think of South

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Speaker 1: Korea as being a big part of US around relations. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, there are a lot of countries caught in between.

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Speaker 4: But the South Koreans I think shouldered this burden in

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Speaker 4: a very unfair way. It's very rare for the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Leader of Iran in a public speech to single out

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Speaker 4: an international firm. He did so by singling out Samsong

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Speaker 4: and basically saying that because South Korean companies had withdrawn

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Speaker 4: from Iran, not because of international sanctions, but because of

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Speaker 4: unilateral US sanctions that they should never be allowed back

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Speaker 4: into the country. South Korea had a significant exports of

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Speaker 4: electronics to Iran, and all of that market has been

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Speaker 4: lost to China. But South Korea also could not repatriate

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Speaker 4: about six seven billion dollars Iranian oil receipts that it

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Speaker 4: accrued when it was allowed to import Iranian oil until

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Speaker 4: President Trump withdrew from the twenty fifteen nuclear deal and

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Speaker 4: reimposed sanctions. Basically, under US law, it was allowed for

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Speaker 4: Iran to use this money for humanitarian trade all along

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Speaker 4: because US sanctions exempt food and medicine and medical equipment.

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Speaker 4: But South Korean banks were so spooked by US sanctions

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Speaker 4: that they were over complying with these regulations, and as

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Speaker 4: a result, South Korea had become on a tremendous amount

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Speaker 4: of political pressure from the Iranians.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that South Korea was bringing any sort

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Speaker 1: of pressure to bear on the US to free them

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Speaker 1: from what you call this burden?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think South Koreans had engaged both sides and

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Speaker 4: explaining to them that this is definitely that they don't

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Speaker 4: want to be between a rock and a hard place,

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Speaker 4: that this is not the kind of assets that they

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Speaker 4: would like to be in position of. But at the

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Speaker 4: end of the day, it had limited leverage here because

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Speaker 4: South Korean banks absolutely refused to move this money without

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Speaker 4: explicit green light from the Treasury Department that they are

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Speaker 4: able to do so.

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Speaker 1: After the break. Could this deal be the start of

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Speaker 1: a new phase in the US Iran relationship. You had

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Speaker 1: said that, especially in an election year, any deal with

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Speaker 1: Iran becomes a political football. What is the reaction bin

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Speaker 1: so far that you can see in the US and

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Speaker 1: also overseas to this agreement.

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Speaker 4: Well, in the US, as anticipated, it has become a

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Speaker 4: political football. The administration has not come out in full

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Speaker 4: s strength to defend this agreement because let's remember that

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Speaker 4: the hostages are still in Iran, they have not left

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Speaker 4: the country, and any kind of detail that could potentially

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Speaker 4: backfire on them would be disastrous for the administration. But

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Speaker 4: the critics are in full swing in basically calling this

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Speaker 4: a ransom deal and criticizing the Biden administration for funding

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Speaker 4: basically all the destabilizing activities that Iran is involved in. Again,

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Speaker 4: take into account that it took about six months for

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Speaker 4: the Treasury Department to negotiate a tightly controlled oversight mechanism

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Speaker 4: of a banking channel that would not give Iran access

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Speaker 4: to the funds, but it would allow Iran to submit

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Speaker 4: orders through a bank in Doha and Qatar for food

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Speaker 4: and medicine. The Trump administration itself established a very similar

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Speaker 4: mechanism in Switzerland because they too had realized that as

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Speaker 4: a result of the chilling effect of sanctions, Iran was

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Speaker 4: unable to buy food and medicine, and especially during COVID,

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Speaker 4: this was a major problem. And so I really think

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Speaker 4: the criticism is much more of a partisan exercise in

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Speaker 4: as we get closer to the elections than a real one,

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Speaker 4: because I don't think the Biern administration has done anything

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Speaker 4: that is that different than what the Trump administration put

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Speaker 4: in place in Iran.

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Speaker 1: Two.

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Speaker 4: There is a degree of debates, but it's not at

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Speaker 4: the same level because the hardliners are now in complete control.

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Speaker 4: But nevertheless, there has been criticism against the government of

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Speaker 4: Brahim Raisi, who's negotiated this deal, that they have basically

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Speaker 4: accepted the deal that amounts to oil for food. But again,

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Speaker 4: that too, I think is not a fair assessment because

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Speaker 4: of the fact that Iran should have been able to

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Speaker 4: do this all along getting way.

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Speaker 1: Ali, do you see this deal as perhaps being the

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Speaker 1: beginning of a softening of tensions between the US and

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Speaker 1: Iran that possibly lead somewhere, possibly even toward coming back

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Speaker 1: to the table to talk about a return to the

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Speaker 1: Iron nuclear Deal.

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Speaker 4: If it's fully implemented, it could turn into a confidence

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Speaker 4: building exercise. But as I said, between now and the

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Speaker 4: time that the hostages are back home, we're talking about

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Speaker 4: a few weeks that the families are extremely anxious about.

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Speaker 1: Between now and then, still things could go wrong.

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Speaker 4: Oh absolutely, because there is just so much friction between

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Speaker 4: Iran and the United States, and there's so many actors involved,

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Speaker 4: respective allies in the region, whether it's non state actors,

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Speaker 4: Shia militia's backed by Iran or Israel. That although we've

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Speaker 4: seen a degree of the escalation between golf Arap States

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Speaker 4: and Iran as well well, but there is still plenty

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Speaker 4: of space for miscalculation, for freelancing, for mistakes and misunderstandings.

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Speaker 4: In general, this is a very fragile process. But if

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Speaker 4: it is completed and concluded successfully, I think it is

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Speaker 4: likely to become a gateway for more dialogue, not about

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Speaker 4: a deal. But about what a future deal could look

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Speaker 4: like once there's political certainty about who the next US

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Speaker 4: president is, because that's the most determining factor here. So

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Speaker 4: in the short run, I think it is possible that

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Speaker 4: we could see the resumption of negotiations at the nuclear

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Speaker 4: level between Iran and the world powers that includes the

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Speaker 4: United States, which would be quite significant because during the

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Speaker 4: first two and a half years of the Biden administration

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Speaker 4: negotiating to revive the twenty fifteen nuclear Deal, Iran refused

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Speaker 4: to talk to.

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Speaker 1: The US directly. Ali, Thank you always great to talk

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Speaker 1: to you.

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Speaker 4: What was a pleasure, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take.

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