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Speaker 1: Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Full disclosure because you're seeing that, Hey, you're not in

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Speaker 1: your normal studio. No, I am not. I'm on the

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Speaker 1: lovely campus of the University of Southern California, or as

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Speaker 1: my friends in Columbia, South Carolina would say, the USC

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Speaker 1: of the West. I am out here. I got to

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Speaker 1: participate in a meeting of the Big Ten government relations staff.

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Speaker 1: That's right, if you forgot the USC is in the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten, and so we got the host SUSPENI. It

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Speaker 1: was actually quite interesting, quite fun, and I got to

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Speaker 1: give a shout out to the Big Ten more so

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Speaker 1: than the other conferences. Though I'm not saying the other

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Speaker 1: conferences aren't trying to create non athletic sort of collaborative

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Speaker 1: efforts here, but the Big Ten does seem to be

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Speaker 1: more aggressive and better at having non athletic collaboration between

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Speaker 1: the schools and it only you know, it's sort of

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Speaker 1: if you're going to create these super conferences, you know,

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Speaker 1: figure out ways to take advantage. I mean, if you're

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Speaker 1: the ACC. Hey, guys, you got some incredible elite universities

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Speaker 1: from Duke to Miami to Georgia Tech to Stanford to

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Speaker 1: cal to SMU and ton in between. These are this

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Speaker 1: is an opportunity. Bcs are another rising school. Syracuse is great.

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Speaker 1: You know, take a page from how the Big ten

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Speaker 1: is operating. SEC could could benefit in the same way

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Speaker 1: I understanding the Big twelve is trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: how to how to create some sort of some sort

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Speaker 1: of collaboration. So, as many of you know, I teach

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Speaker 1: adjunct and the scholar in residence at the USC DC campus.

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Speaker 1: So it does afford me the opportunity to come out

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Speaker 1: to La once or twice a year for some of

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Speaker 1: my USC duties. And so that's where we're coming from today.

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Speaker 1: As you know, most Wednesdays, I want to lean more

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Speaker 1: into my campaign roots, my political junkie roots. I'll have

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Speaker 1: a later in this broadcast, the top five list on

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Speaker 1: the top five most likely governor seats to flip that

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Speaker 1: it's both twenty five and twenty six. It will include

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Speaker 1: the two races talking about now and I guess I

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Speaker 1: will have a lot more to say about Virginia like

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Speaker 1: I did on Monday there. I think there's definitely a

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Speaker 1: lot more to say there. My guest is actually very

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Speaker 1: campaign oriented, Adam Bonica is my guest today does a

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Speaker 1: substack called on data and Democracy, and he's from one

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Speaker 1: of the ACC's West Coast members, Sanford University. He did

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Speaker 1: our terrific deep dive on essentially exposing a octopus of

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Speaker 1: a scam fundraising scheme on the left and all these

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Speaker 1: and how it's essentially preying on elderly people. We've seen

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Speaker 1: this phenomenon as takes place on the right, but he

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Speaker 1: was able to identify the fact that a myriad of

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Speaker 1: these organizations, if you're in email inbox, if you're over

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Speaker 1: a certain age and you have noticed, you feel like,

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Speaker 1: trust me, my mother just goes, what are all these emails?

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Speaker 1: They tell me I've got to I don't contribute in

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Speaker 1: the next ten minutes. Democracy's going to fail. This is

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Speaker 1: kind of ridiculous, but this apparently works on some people.

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Speaker 1: And it's it's the crazy thing is all this money

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Speaker 1: that's been raised, none of it actually goes to the campaigns.

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Speaker 1: And that is what Adam exposed. Did some incredible investigative

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Speaker 1: sort of database work, you know, straight up data journalism,

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Speaker 1: and he thought it was going to be easy, and

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Speaker 1: he kept you know, it was kind of a murky area,

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Speaker 1: but he got to layer after layer. So that's my

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Speaker 1: extended conversation that will be coming up. Those of you

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Speaker 1: listening on the on the Uber podcast for this episode,

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Speaker 1: you have that to look forward to. But I'm going

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Speaker 1: to begin actually before I get to a bit of

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Speaker 1: a can Pain round up. It is the subject of

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Speaker 1: my substack sort of are the Democrats the party with

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Speaker 1: primary problems this cycle? After a decade of Republican primaries

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Speaker 1: creating massive headaches and Senate races, GOV races and House

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Speaker 1: races for Team read, it looks like twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: is going to be the year where that phenomenon is

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Speaker 1: more on the left. I mean, outside of Texas. Republicans

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Speaker 1: have been impressive in their ability to clear primary fields,

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Speaker 1: not so on the left. And we'll discuss that in

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Speaker 1: a minute. But I thought, look, I want a few

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Speaker 1: words on what we're dealing with right now. The shutdown

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Speaker 1: is still here. I told you at the beginning of

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Speaker 1: this shutdown debate that perhaps the entity that had the

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Speaker 1: most power to end this shutdown might be the air

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Speaker 1: traffic controllers and TSA agents. And while already we're seeing

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Speaker 1: the impact of an increasing number of air traffic controllers,

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Speaker 1: whose next page check is in jeopardy on October fourteenth,

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Speaker 1: sickouts are already slightly up a bit at a faster pace.

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Speaker 1: I was out here in California. It was a big

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Speaker 1: breaking news alert on all the TVs when I was

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Speaker 1: in the wonderful Annenberg Journalism School newsroom. They have a

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Speaker 1: terrific sort of hub newsroom, looks like any major TV

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Speaker 1: network that you would walk into. And the big breaking

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Speaker 1: news on the local California news stations was the Burbank

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Speaker 1: Airport was suddenly going to have major flight delays due

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Speaker 1: to air traffic control issues. There's if you go on

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Speaker 1: social media now, you know that Nashville is experiencing this.

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Speaker 1: We've seen Newark, which seems to have constant issues with

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Speaker 1: that as well. So while I'm not going to sit

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Speaker 1: here and tell you the you know I was, I

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Speaker 1: was sort of ice. I'm going to stick to my

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Speaker 1: initial prediction that we wouldn't that this shutdown would likely

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Speaker 1: end by this weekend. But let's just say I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure I have a winning ticket on that bet right now,

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Speaker 1: because I do think both sides have convinced themselves thanks

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Speaker 1: mostly to their you know the fact that we have

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Speaker 1: a siloed information ecosystem that they're making that somehow they're

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Speaker 1: winning and somehow this is working for them and they're

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Speaker 1: not losing anything on this. So until there's real pain,

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Speaker 1: and I do think the air traffic controller issue is

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Speaker 1: something that likely will penetrate both information ecosystems, the left

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Speaker 1: wing one and the right wing one, because everybody travels.

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Speaker 1: And this gets back to my initial rant on how

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Speaker 1: this is a ridiculous feature of the US system. There

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Speaker 1: is no constitutional amendment that says appropriations no longer can

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Speaker 1: be used to pay people if Congress can't meet a deadline.

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Speaker 1: This is no way to run a company, let alone

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Speaker 1: a country. Okay, the fact that we are putting the

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Speaker 1: lives of thousands in danger travel around air let alone

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Speaker 1: being just simply just ruptive to their lives, screwing up

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Speaker 1: people's job interviews, screwing up people's emergency visits to sick relatives,

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Speaker 1: maybe they miss a funeral, all because of this political theater.

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Speaker 1: This stuff's important, what they're debating. I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: deny that, but the idea that we simply shut down

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Speaker 1: the government to have these debates is just ridiculous. It

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Speaker 1: shouldn't this is not about who triggered the shutdown. The

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Speaker 1: shutdown shouldn't be allowed to happen, and it is something

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Speaker 1: that only Congress can easily stop this. They have chosen,

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Speaker 1: both parties have chosen not to allow this to happen.

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Speaker 1: And once again, by the way, the power to open

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Speaker 1: up the government is actually solely in the hands of

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Speaker 1: Republican senators. They waive the filibuster. Government opens the second

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Speaker 1: they finished voting, So do keep that in mind now.

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Speaker 1: I think it's arguably potentially a good thing when it

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Speaker 1: comes to I think the filibuster not as it's used today,

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Speaker 1: but the idea of one is still something that that

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Speaker 1: should be a feature of the United States Senate. There's

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Speaker 1: a better way to use it, that's for sure. But again,

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Speaker 1: Republicans could open the government tomorrow. All they got to

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Speaker 1: do is get rid of the philibuster. They have the

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Speaker 1: votes on their own to do it. Obviously, the Democrats

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Speaker 1: also have the power with their with with just handing

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Speaker 1: over five five more Senate votes to do that. But

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Speaker 1: either way, I'm sorry, when you're disrupting people's lives, you're

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Speaker 1: not winning anything. I do think Democrats have certainly gotten

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Speaker 1: the attention of Republicans on the issue of healthcare. But

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Speaker 1: Republicans knew already that they were vulnerable on healthcare, and

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Speaker 1: you know it's possible. Uh, here's the irity to this.

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Speaker 1: If this shutdown a complic gives the Democrats the ability,

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Speaker 1: gives the Republicans the ability to say, oh, they fixed

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Speaker 1: healthcare in this compromise. The irony is that the Democrats

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Speaker 1: may have taken away one of their best issues to

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Speaker 1: use in the mid terms. But I digress. But before

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Speaker 1: I get to a campaign update, I do think I've

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Speaker 1: been talked about the potential final end. I'm taping on

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Speaker 1: October seventh, so it seemed to be a good time

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Speaker 1: to check in on There's a lot of polling that's

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Speaker 1: been out there on Israel, not just in the United States,

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Speaker 1: but it some polling in Israel, and it's the polling

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Speaker 1: in Israel, and I think a lot of people haven't

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Speaker 1: seen or heard about. So I thought I would get

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Speaker 1: there discuss a little bit of the polling on how

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Speaker 1: Israel has lost it's standing in the United States and

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Speaker 1: it's really starting Jewey rode across the board. It certainly

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Speaker 1: Israel still has more support on the right than the

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Speaker 1: left in this country, but it is eroding generally more.

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Speaker 1: It's really bb Well unpopularity is growing. He's never been

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Speaker 1: ap popular guy here, but his unpopularity is growing. But

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Speaker 1: what's striking is how unpopular he is in the state

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Speaker 1: of Israel. And I will get to that, but I

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Speaker 1: do think it's you know, what have we learned about

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Speaker 1: Israel over the last two years. What's been the sort

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Speaker 1: of fallout from all of this? And I think what's

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Speaker 1: interesting is on the US relationship with Israel. I want

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Speaker 1: to associate myself with some comments that Ian Bremer made

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Speaker 1: in his newsletter because I thought it was really smart.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's an interesting conundrum that Israel's in right now.

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Speaker 1: Israel under BB's leadership has never looked as powerful or

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Speaker 1: as alone. So many Western governments have embraced the idea

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Speaker 1: of Palestinian statehood, and there's in some ways, Israel has

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Speaker 1: one friend, the United States. That's it. It makes the

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Speaker 1: relationship with the United States that much more important to

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Speaker 1: any current or future Prime minister of Israel, and it

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Speaker 1: gives the United States more leverage and arguably more global

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Speaker 1: responsibility for managing, if you will, or influencing or however

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Speaker 1: you want to put it, or the belief that they

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Speaker 1: have influence over Israel. But the is the Israeli government

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Speaker 1: has never been more tied and more in need of

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Speaker 1: US support and more Lena, they have no other allies

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Speaker 1: like the United States nowhere even close. Not saying they

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Speaker 1: don't have other friends out there, but it's only due

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Speaker 1: to the United States that they have some Sunni Arab

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Speaker 1: states that are friends. But it's sort of like they're

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Speaker 1: friends because of the United States. Whether they'd be friends

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Speaker 1: with Israel on their own as a whole other story.

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Speaker 1: But I thought that was an interesting piece of analysis

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Speaker 1: by In. You know, I like to frequently bring onto

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Speaker 1: the podcast as my international expert, one of the just

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Speaker 1: smarter global political scientists that are out there. But it's

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Speaker 1: true because as a military power, Israel now is the

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Speaker 1: power of the Middle East. There's no there's no there's

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Speaker 1: no there's no close second. It's Israel and everybody else.

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Speaker 1: So they have power. They're feared in the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: and yet it's out of fear, there's not there's less

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Speaker 1: respect around the world because of BB's leadership too. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: let me get into some of the polling, because I

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Speaker 1: think some of this is interesting and worth taking a

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Speaker 1: look at. So look, there's still giant this is First,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about America's views of Israel in general, big

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Speaker 1: part of some split seventy percent. This is a Q

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Speaker 1: poll by the way, that I'm citing. Q came out

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Speaker 1: last week, and there's all this polling on this side.

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Speaker 1: This is just the Americans. The poll of Israeli citizens

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Speaker 1: is by the Israeli Democracy Institute, was conducted by the way,

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Speaker 1: in Arabic and in Hebrew, because they also man there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of Israeli Arabs in the Israe Israeli population

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Speaker 1: as well. It was a large minority in the State

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Speaker 1: of Israel. But let me start with the US public opinion.

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Speaker 1: So first, the sort of predictable the partisans split. Seventy

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Speaker 1: percent of Democrats or Democratic leaning independents view the Palestinian

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Speaker 1: people favorably. Just thirty seven percent of Republicans or Republican leaners.

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Speaker 1: All those same views, the Israeli government is viewed positively

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Speaker 1: by fifty five percent of Republicans. Only eighteen percent of

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Speaker 1: Democrats view the Israeli government positively. On the Israeli people,

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Speaker 1: Democrats or evenly divided forty eight to forty eight favorable

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Speaker 1: unfavorable on the Israeli people. Republicans a much higher favorable

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Speaker 1: view of the Israeli people. Sixty seven percent, eighty two

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Speaker 1: percent of Republicans and fifty six percent of Democrats view

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Speaker 1: the Palestinian authority unfavorably. So while there are fewer Democrats

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Speaker 1: that view an unfavorable majorities of both parties view the

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Speaker 1: Palestinian authority unfavorably, and eight and ten Republicans and eight

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Speaker 1: in ten Democrats view Amas unfavorably. But what's also interesting

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Speaker 1: is there is growing skepticism of Israel's operation in Gaza

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Speaker 1: over time. Thirty nine percent now say Israel has gone

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Speaker 1: too far in its military operation against Tamas. That's up

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Speaker 1: from thirty one percent at this same time in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, and it was twenty seven percent in late

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three just after Hamasque took those hostages on

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Speaker 1: October seven. And overall, the Israeli government, which really is

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Speaker 1: bbe right, but the Israeli government. Fifty nine percent of

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Speaker 1: America of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the Israeli government.

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Speaker 1: That is up from fifty one percent of last year Look,

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Speaker 1: you can't get to fifty nine percent of Americans on

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Speaker 1: anything without having essentially a piece of all three of

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Speaker 1: America's sort of political tribes right, the left, center and right,

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Speaker 1: and and that is definitely the case there. Now let

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Speaker 1: me move to what we learned about the Israeli people,

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Speaker 1: because I think some of these numbers will surprise people.

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Speaker 1: And I think it's I say this as an American Jew,

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Speaker 1: you know, we in some cases, I think folks that

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Speaker 1: are not familiar, you know, with there's plenty of diversity

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Speaker 1: of thought inside the American Jewish community, plenty of diversity

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Speaker 1: of thought among American Jews on BB the individual or

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Speaker 1: the Israeli government of the Palestinian people. That nuance gets lost,

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Speaker 1: frankly in a lot of the conversation that takes place online,

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Speaker 1: which is as an American Jew, very frustrating to many

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Speaker 1: of us, many of us. And look, we disagree amongst ourselves.

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Speaker 1: We have we have plenty of debates in the Jewish

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Speaker 1: community ourselves, but we're pretty good at debating. We like debating,

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Speaker 1: I will I will tell you that. But this did

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Speaker 1: I think won't surprise American Jews. But this will surprise

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Speaker 1: people who are not familiar as familiar. Sixty six percent

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Speaker 1: of Israelis say it's time to end the war in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: Sixty six percent of Israelis folks. Okay, that is up

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Speaker 1: thirteen points from a year ago at this time, and

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Speaker 1: another the same essentially sixty six percent. Two thirds of

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Speaker 1: the country think Prime Minister Beating that YAHOO should take

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Speaker 1: responsibility for the security failures that led to the October

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Speaker 1: seventh attacks and resign. Okay, Now to split up that

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Speaker 1: number just so you know, it's about forty five percent

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Speaker 1: who believe he should resign immediately. Now there's a whole

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Speaker 1: chunk of Israelis that think that that BB, you know,

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Speaker 1: it was a security failure and he should take responsibility

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Speaker 1: for this. He's never taken responsibility for the lack of

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Speaker 1: smart security around October seventh. And then there's another fifteen

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Speaker 1: percent who believed that he should resign after the war

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Speaker 1: is over, finish the military operation and then resign. But

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear two thirds sixty basically, sixty six percent

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Speaker 1: of the population thinks it is time for BB to

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Speaker 1: leave the stage. He's got to go. And I think

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Speaker 1: it's I think there is a belief and this happens

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Speaker 1: in any wartime situation. You know, this is not unique

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Speaker 1: to Israel. Zelenski is going to be facing the same thing.

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Speaker 1: There's going to be fatigue the population. There's going to

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Speaker 1: be a belief for population that in some ways there's

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Speaker 1: going to be too much scar tissue with that leader,

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Speaker 1: and they're never you know, and frankly, they may be

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Speaker 1: so warped that they see everything is something they got

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Speaker 1: to go to war to. And so just in general,

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Speaker 1: you'll see there'll be a similar situation in Ukraine where

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Speaker 1: there'll be people think it's time for Zillanski to go now.

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Speaker 1: They may say, let's wait till after the war, don't

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Speaker 1: change horses in midstream type of mindset, which is something

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Speaker 1: that many a democracy goes through. But I just think

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Speaker 1: in general, I think it's I know this. I knew

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Speaker 1: he was more unpopular than popular in Israel. I was

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Speaker 1: surprised that the number would be that high. This is

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Speaker 1: worth in a question again of the Israeli public, A

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Speaker 1: majority of the public believes that Israel standing in the

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Speaker 1: international arena is worse today than it was before October seventh.

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Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of the overall sample believes this and

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Speaker 1: this is across the board. Among Israeli Jews it's seventy

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Speaker 1: six percent, and among Israeli Arabs it is sixty percent.

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Speaker 1: This is also the view of the majority of each

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Speaker 1: of the three political camps within Israel. Those on the left.

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Speaker 1: Ninety five percent of those in the Israeli left believe

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Speaker 1: Israel's international standing is worse today, eighty seven percent in

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Speaker 1: the political center, and even sixty nine percent in the

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Speaker 1: political right. And what is the main goal of this war? Right,

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Speaker 1: there's been, frankly a debate inside Israel what should the goal?

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Speaker 1: Is the goal to get all the hostages home? Or

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Speaker 1: is the goal to eradicate Hamas? Well. We've heard what

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Speaker 1: Biebe says, and certainly what his right wing government says.

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Speaker 1: They want to make it about Hamas, but that is

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Speaker 1: not where a majority of the Israeli public is. Sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent of the Israeli public believe the main goal

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Speaker 1: of the war and Godza today should only be bringing

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Speaker 1: the hostages home. Heart stop, herd stop. And the share

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Speaker 1: by the way of people that are old those views

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Speaker 1: has actually grown since January of twenty twenty four among

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Speaker 1: both Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs, and it's really not surprising.

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Speaker 1: There's fatigue, there's concern that they're frankly never going to

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Speaker 1: get home in time on that front. But it's I

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Speaker 1: just think here, on this October seventh, we should reflect.

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Speaker 1: Let's be hopeful that this is that we are potentially

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Speaker 1: at the end here. And you know, for all the

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Speaker 1: grief everybody, this is a case where Donald I don't

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Speaker 1: know if another American president could be putting BB in

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Speaker 1: his place on this a little bit. This is a

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Speaker 1: case where Trump's using his sort of unique ability to

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Speaker 1: bully for good. In a certain sense, this is not

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Speaker 1: very good politics in general. It's not very good diplomacy

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Speaker 1: in general. But sometimes you know, BB and Trump are

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Speaker 1: very similar guys. They're clinging to power to avoid accountability. Right,

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Speaker 1: they share a lot in common. They have gotten power

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Speaker 1: without having a majority support, which is easier to explain

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Speaker 1: in a parliamentary system, a little harder to explain in

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Speaker 1: our system. The two of them do have a lot

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Speaker 1: in common. But it also means Trump knows how to

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Speaker 1: Trump knows how to bully Bbe because he knows who

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Speaker 1: BB is. So at this point, let's just hope we

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Speaker 1: can turn the page, stop the killing, start the rebuilding,

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Speaker 1: and see if the page came truly get turned. In

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, there's a reason results matter more than promises,

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Speaker 1: just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's

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Speaker 1: largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years,

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Speaker 1: they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half

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Speaker 1: a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered

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Speaker 1: next to nothing, just hoping to get away with paying

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Speaker 1: as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended

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Speaker 1: up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was

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Speaker 1: awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty

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Speaker 1: times the amount that the insurance company originally offered. That

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Speaker 1: original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million,

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Speaker 1: six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So with more than one

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Speaker 1: thousand lawyers across the country, they know how to deliver

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Speaker 1: for everyday people. If you're injured, you need a lawyer,

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Speaker 1: You need somebody to get your back. Check out for

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Speaker 1: the People dot Com Slash podcast, or dial pound law,

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Speaker 1: pound five two nine law on your cell phone and

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Speaker 1: remember all law firms are not the same. So check

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Speaker 1: out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. Look,

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Speaker 1: the issue of Israel whould still end up being a

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Speaker 1: huge player inside, particularly inside democratic primary politics, and I

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Speaker 1: do want to make note before I get it full

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Speaker 1: fledged in my sort of political briefing of the week.

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Speaker 1: There's already an attack ad against a presidential candidate twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty eight potential presidential candidate airing in the state of

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire. The pro Palestinian group i AM EU Policy

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Speaker 1: Project has a new ad on TV in New Hampshire

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Speaker 1: criticizing Kentucky Governor Andy Basher. The ad hits Bashir for

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Speaker 1: declining to tell Politico in August whether he would support

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Speaker 1: blocking certain weapons sales to Israel. This has become more

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Speaker 1: and more Democrats have gotten on board this idea of

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Speaker 1: essentially blocking the sale of military equipment in some arms

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Speaker 1: to Israel by the US government, and it also attacks

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Speaker 1: him for calling Israel a critical ally in a July

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Speaker 1: Vogue interview. For what it's worth, the Bashir, it was

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Speaker 1: interesting how Bashir is what Bashir's spokesperson until Politico, President

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Speaker 1: Trump can and should provide aid to address starvation and

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Speaker 1: suffering in Gaza, and he should do so in a

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Speaker 1: way that does not compromise the safety of the Israeli people.

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Speaker 1: I think what this is an interesting sort of shot,

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Speaker 1: political shot, if you will, where I do think there

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Speaker 1: are there is a movement on the left that wants

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Speaker 1: to make this a litmus test issue inside Democratic primary politics.

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Speaker 1: So they're going after This is the case where Bashir's

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Speaker 1: probably already seen as the most they've been gone after Shapiro,

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Speaker 1: but Basher and Shapiro probably the most pro Israel. They

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Speaker 1: had a they had they had a way to you know,

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Speaker 1: they had a specific news story to cling to on this,

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Speaker 1: and it I don't know how salient it will be

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Speaker 1: in a Democratic primary, right, there are certain issues and

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Speaker 1: this is where I think polling doesn't always tell you

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Speaker 1: the story. There are certain issues that will pull a

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Speaker 1: certain way, but it doesn't necessarily motivate a voter. And

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Speaker 1: the question is whether a stance on Israel is a

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Speaker 1: voting issue for a Democratic primary voting for president or

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Speaker 1: is it on the list of things you'd like? But

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Speaker 1: it is not a deal breaker. And I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to sit here and tell you I think I know

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Speaker 1: the answer of which way that leans. We're going to

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Speaker 1: learn a little something of Michigan Center primary is going

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Speaker 1: to be fascinating. I think on that issue, Abdul say

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Speaker 1: Ed clearly calls it genocide of what Israel does. Molly

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Speaker 1: mcmarrow has decided to also use that word genocide in there.

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Speaker 1: That is not something Hailey Stevens, the establishment favorite in

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Speaker 1: that primary, has used. So I think that's an open question.

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Speaker 1: How much of a voting issue is a Democrats position

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Speaker 1: on Israel? Is it a voting motivator? All right? We

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Speaker 1: know it can be a financial motivator, either to give

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Speaker 1: or not to give, et cetera. But is it an

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Speaker 1: activator when it comes to voting? Is it if you

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Speaker 1: agree with something on everything else? How many voters are

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Speaker 1: out there that are only voting on this issue? How

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Speaker 1: many single issue voters on it? You can probably tell.

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Speaker 1: I'm skeptical that there are many on this for what

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Speaker 1: it's worth. But this leads me into sort of my

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Speaker 1: briefing of the week, my twenty twenty six briefing that

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Speaker 1: I want to do in the focus I did on

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Speaker 1: my substack column, which is up and to be read

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Speaker 1: right now and always free on Substack I am not

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Speaker 1: charging a subscription there right now. I view it as

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Speaker 1: a way to bring some attention to this podcast and

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Speaker 1: vice versa. How the podcast bring some attention to the

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Speaker 1: column on this front. But it is we're seeing a

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Speaker 1: rollover or so between the two parties. Essentially, the Republicans

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Speaker 1: are clearing primary fields all over the country. I mean,

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Speaker 1: with the large exception of the lone Star state. And

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Speaker 1: we'll see what happens in the state of Louisiana although

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Speaker 1: primary hasn't popped up just yet for Bill Cassidy. But

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Speaker 1: outside of the John Cornyn mess with Ken Paxton and

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Speaker 1: now Wesley Hunt, and that is a mess, don't get

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Speaker 1: me wrong. And if you know, if Cornyn is the nominee,

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Speaker 1: you take the race off the map. If Ken Paxon

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Speaker 1: is the nominee, Democrats have a legitimate shot at winning

432
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: control of the US side. That's how That's what's at

433
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: stake in that primary. Because I don't have a fourth

434
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: I really don't see a viable path for four pickups

435
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: for the Democrats on their best stay. But if Ken

436
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: Paxson's a Republican nominee in Texas, then there's a viable

437
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 1: path for four suddenly you can see it. You know,

438
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 1: North Carolina, Maine, you know one, you know, one of

439
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: those Midwestern states maybe right, you know with Ohio shared Brown,

440
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: maybe an Iowa open seat. What's going on in Nebraska, Alaska? Okay?

441
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: Could you could see one of those coming in? Right,

442
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: It's hard to see two of those coming in, but

443
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: I could see one of those coming in. Then you

444
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: throw in Texas and you start that pot. But overall,

445
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,959
Speaker 1: in general, there's no primary for the open seat in Iowa.

446
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: Republicans have successfully rallied everybody around Ashley Henson. You know,

447
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: we know in twenty twenty two, this would have been

448
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: there'd have been a mega candidate, a McConnell candidate, all

449
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: sorts of colorful characters jumping into that race in Iowa.

450
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 1: In Michigan, Mike Rodgers had to deal with the primary

451
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 1: last time. There is no primary. This time, primaries were

452
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 1: a problem in the Republican side, arguably cost them a

453
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: chance at a governor's at a governor's seat, certainly made

454
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 1: the Senate seat a bit harder. This time, they got

455
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: Mike Rogers without having a primary. Meanwhile, there's gonna be

456
00:27:55,280 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: a hugely messy and potentially nasty primary on the Democratic side.

457
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: On that front, they don't have a primary in North Carolina.

458
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: Now they do in Georgia, and we'll see if they

459
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 1: end up with a primary in New Hampshire. I think

460
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 1: if they get senter New and Trump probably leans on

461
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: Scott Brown successfully. And that's really what Republicans have done

462
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: is John Thune is working hand in hand with the

463
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: White House and they're doing their best to essentially agree

464
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: on tann It's McConnell kind of tried that, but there

465
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: was the disaster of herschel Walker, right, that was just

466
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: a debacle where everybody knew that was a bad idea,

467
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: but he chose to give the president that and well

468
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: that's why there are two Democratic senators in the state

469
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: of Georgia. But it is and in fact, Dune, according

470
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: to an article on Political Early this week, has done

471
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: has made a huge effort and has successfully convinced the

472
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: White House don't harass Susan Collins, don't find some maga

473
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: person to go primary her. And she is the only

474
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: person that can win that Senate seat if it's winnable,

475
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 1: and I don't know if it is this time. Not

476
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: going to have a rule out Susan Collins's ability to

477
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: win that race, but she does have the highest unfavorable

478
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: rating she's ever had going into going into one of

479
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: these reelections. But this, you know, contrasts that, right this

480
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: was the hallmark of the Democrats. Chuck Schumer was extraordinarily

481
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: and Harry Reid all throughout, sort of starting in late

482
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: Obama years, going through of avoiding messy ideological primary fights,

483
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: figuring out how to you know, settle on somebody early,

484
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: recruit him and clear the primary field. John Hickenlooper got

485
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: a Senate seat this way, Tim Kane got a Senate

486
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 1: seat this way. You know, Steve Bullock lost a Senate seat,

487
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: but he, you know, it was able to have a

488
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: clear primary field when he chose to run. Look, they

489
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: got that in shared Brown right now, but he still

490
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: actually is facing a primary. It looks like there will

491
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 1: won't be a significant primary in the New Hampshire open seat,

492
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: which is a small win there. That's going to be

493
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: a tough race either way. And certainly Roy Cooper has

494
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: has is sort of the model of you know, they

495
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: just not many Roy Hooper's out there. But look at

496
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: the state of main you know that it looks like

497
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: they've got the governor to run, but you've got all

498
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: these other candidates that keep jumping in and feel as

499
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: if and it's sort of understandable. I think you have

500
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: a you have a pent up set of you have

501
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: a pent up party, right, A party that's been told

502
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: to suck it up and support Hillary Clinton, suck it

503
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: up and support Joe Biden, suck it up and support

504
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris without without going through a primary process. So

505
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,719
Speaker 1: I do think there's fatigue with being told what to

506
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: do by an establishment that doesn't seem to have many

507
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: wins anymore to tout. And but look, as we saw

508
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: the Republican side, a primary goes the wrong way, the

509
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 1: ideology gets ugly. Somebody may win but be totally bruised.

510
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: Somebody may win but despite some awful opposition research that surfaces,

511
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: and while they can survive the primary, they can't survive

512
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:12,719
Speaker 1: the general. That's what primaries, you know, Primaries. Primaries increase

513
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: the unexpected, right, they increase the unintended when you don't

514
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: have primaries. Now, look, I could argue primaries could be

515
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: healthy for the party. Democrats need to have a good

516
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: fight to figure out their direction because I think they

517
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: don't know. They're pretty paralyzed right now and where to go.

518
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 1: There's a there's a divide between progressives who think, hey,

519
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: emulate the Mega movement a little bit here right. You know,

520
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: a lot of the Establishment of Republicans said Mega is

521
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: a loser. What turns out Mega has given Republicans more

522
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: power than they've gotten in a generation. And I think

523
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: there are a lot of progressives who say, what's wrong

524
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: with emulating a model like that. Let's paint in brighter colors,

525
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: let's have more conviction, let's be bolder and lean out there.

526
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: I don't think that's where the swing voter is right.

527
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 1: And I've made the argument you've got the adult in

528
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: the room voter that I do think is leaned to

529
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: the left over the last in the Trump era, I

530
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 1: think the adult in the room voter vacillates. But I

531
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 1: think that that has been an important constituent. See it's

532
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: not a huge constituency, and it doesn't have much of

533
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: a constituency in a primary. These are mostly general election voters.

534
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: But I bring out the adult in the room party

535
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: when it comes to the situation in Virginia right now,

536
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: and let's be honest, if this. If these techs had

537
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: surfaced on J. Jones, the attorney general nominee for the Democrats,

538
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: a month ago, he'd be out already because they would

539
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: have had time to replace him as the nominee. It

540
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: really appears that the only reason they're not doing this

541
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: is they don't want to. They don't want to lose

542
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: the race. There's got to be other ways around this, right.

543
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: The one I've come up with, and why somebody hasn't suggested,

544
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: is if you convince him that if he if he

545
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: gets elected, he agrees to resign, he should not hold

546
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: an office, a law enforcement position. If he had been

547
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: a deputy AG as an appointee or a deputy US attorney,

548
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: an a DA or something, and that he'd have been fired.

549
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: No government, uh, legal entity would want that those text

550
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: message you know, have somebody prosecuting the case, who has

551
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: whose text messages saying, you know, making threats like that

552
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 1: to public official. You just you just couldn't do it. It

553
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: would it would get rid of you know, it would

554
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: cost you credibility in any case that person would prosecute.

555
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: So it's it's it looks like and I get it right.

556
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: Trump never apologizes, never surrenders. And I know that there's

557
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 1: some that think, hey, you know, well, if you know

558
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: they do it, why can't we do it? But the

559
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: honorable thing is to agree that if he if you're

560
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 1: if he's elected, he'll resign and then, according to the

561
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 1: the Virginia Constitution, the General Assembly would elect the would

562
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: essentially elect the replacement on this. And look, if you

563
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: want to just play partisan politics here, it's most likely

564
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,959
Speaker 1: a general Assembly is going to be democratic. We'll see

565
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: what the final results are. But doing this dance of

566
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 1: condemning what he said, but agreeing to vote for him

567
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: and allow you know, I think the Democrats need to

568
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: be conducting what I refer to as civil war surgery,

569
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 1: where sometimes you had to cut off a limb to

570
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: save the body. There's a month. Do I think this

571
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: costs Abigail's Fanburg or the race? I do not. This

572
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: cost her three or four points, maybe could have cost

573
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 1: them the LG race. Good. Right, It's it feels like

574
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: this is that that there are that this is sort

575
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: of the what Trump has done. This is sort of

576
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: everybody's got Trump brain. And right, just because Trump survives

577
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: these things doesn't mean it's you know, it's the right

578
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 1: thing to do. And again I just sort of asked

579
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 1: the question. The results will tell me, the voters will

580
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 1: tell us the answer to this. But like I said,

581
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: I believe that that that Democrats have benefited being the

582
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: adult in the room. Party. You don't behave as the

583
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 1: adult in the room on this on this part of

584
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: the conversation, what do you lose long term? You know,

585
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: maybe maybe you end up maybe rallying around the troops here,

586
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: you know, and you get them elected. But what if

587
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 1: you do with him? Zach got to call him to

588
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: question all of his moves? Is he a paralyzed office

589
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: holder as it is? You know? I it is, this

590
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 1: is never going to go away with him, you know.

591
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: And it wasn't I tell you what sort of really

592
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: bothers me about this is? It's not the It's sort

593
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: of like the text themselves were Jesus, what what do you?

594
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: Why are you putting this in writing? But it was

595
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: the second part of the story where the lawmaker was like,

596
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: what are you saying this for? And he sort of

597
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: doubled down on it in a verbal conversation. Right, It

598
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: was more it wasn't you know you can you can

599
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: you could forgive somebody in a heat of the moment, right,

600
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 1: you know, nobody wants there. And if every thought that

601
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: went through all of our heads were broadcaster or or verbalized,

602
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 1: and by the way, these neurotransplants right could start doing that,

603
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: I don't think any of us would want that public. Okay,

604
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: everybody has a stray thought, even if it's a hypothetical whatever. Okay,

605
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 1: but good grief, we're not George Orwell. Right, So there's

606
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 1: a there's certainly lines here, but the fact that wasn't

607
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: heat of the moment. And again, it's the office he's

608
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: running for, turning general, right, that's a law enforcement office.

609
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 1: So anyway, I think the Democrats are playing with some

610
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 1: political fire here, and they'd probably be in a better

611
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: place if they were calling for his immediate resignation upon election.

612
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: You know, that could be the compromise, since it's too

613
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: late to get his name off the ballot. Anyway, we

614
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: shall see, all right, we'll sneak in a break coming up,

615
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: my interview with Adam Bonica on the elaborate sort of

616
00:37:54,280 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: scheme to essentially scam elderly liberals out of money. And

617
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: it's a it's a story he uncovered simply by doing

618
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: some good old fashioned database work. So with that, sneaking

619
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 1: a break, Adam Bonica on the other side, So joining

620
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: me now is somebody who did a deep dive in investigation.

621
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: Uh not a not a journalist that you know by name,

622
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: per se, but it's a political science professor from Stanford

623
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 1: University and he went deep on a topic frankly, that

624
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 1: many of us journalists have been assuming wanting to do.

625
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,320
Speaker 1: But it's in some ways so resource heavy, so time,

626
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: so much of a time sucked that it's always something

627
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: you put off and every once in a while you

628
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 1: delve into it and you realize there's something that isn't

629
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 1: right here. But but you know, is this is this

630
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 1: what I need to be focused on in the moment

631
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 1: or not? And then if you're like me, and if

632
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: you're my age and you have parents of a certain age,

633
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: they always ask these questions. How come so and so

634
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 1: is always asking me for money? My mother says this

635
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 1: to me all the time. They claim if I don't

636
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: send them money in the next twenty four hours, you know,

637
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 1: the democracy is doomed. Who are these people? And I'm like, oh, mom,

638
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 1: it's a scam pact And that's all I usually say,

639
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,800
Speaker 1: but my guest today Adam Bonica, political science professor at Stanford.

640
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 1: He did the hard work here, and he did this

641
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 1: substack post a couple months ago, showing his receipts of

642
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: a long dive into the murky waters of digital fundraising.

643
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 1: I'm going to read the first couple paragraphs of his

644
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: substacks so I can sort of set the scene, and

645
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: then I'm going to bring Adam in to explain his

646
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: work and explain his findings. He starts out this way.

647
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: The digital deluge is a familiar annoyance for anyone on

648
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: a democratic fundraising list. It's a relentless ca offity of

649
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: bizarre texts and emails, each one more urgent than the last,

650
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: promising that your immediate fifteen dollars donation is the only

651
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: thing standing between democracy and the abyss. The main rationale

652
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 1: offered for this fundraising frenzy is that it's a necessary evil,

653
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,479
Speaker 1: that the tactics, while unpleasant, are brutally effective at raising

654
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: the money needed to win. But an analysis of the

655
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: official FEC filings tells a very different story. The fundraising

656
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: model is not a brutally effective tool for the party.

657
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: It's a financial vortex that consumes the vast majority of

658
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 1: every dollar it raises. And Adam, I think this is

659
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:42,720
Speaker 1: the number that's going to shock people. For every one

660
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 1: hundred dollars that people have been sending to these various

661
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: democratic entities, and we'll get to the details of them

662
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 1: in a minute, for ever one hundred dollars you sent,

663
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: one dollar and sixty cents actually went to the cause,

664
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: ninety eight dollars and forty cents went to servicing services

665
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 1: rendered either to the consultants themselves or essentially a vicious

666
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 1: loop that just funded one pack or the other. I

667
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: am only giving you the top line, Adam. That's how

668
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: I thought we could try to begin to try to

669
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: lay the predicate there. What have I missed? What didn't

670
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:25,320
Speaker 1: I mention that you feel like people need to understand

671
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:31,240
Speaker 1: at the beginning in order to understand this really byzantine

672
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 1: digital fundraising scam.

673
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would start by saying, most people,

674
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,479
Speaker 2: not just as I talked to, but just in the

675
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 2: sort of realm of democratic politics, have had a strong sense,

676
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 2: as you mentioned early on, that something here is awry,

677
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 2: that the tactics alone they are a bit bizarre, They

678
00:41:56,239 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 2: are bordering sometimes on deceptive, maybe even predatory in a

679
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 2: lot of ways they're set up. And one of the

680
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: things that I had been really stored by in the

681
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 2: run up to the twenty twenty four election was just

682
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 2: how bombarded I was with these types of messages, not

683
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 2: just on email, which was completely overflowing, but also in

684
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 2: my text messages.

685
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: Because an email you can at least put it in

686
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: a spam folder. It's the text messages that become there

687
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: is no spam folder for text right now.

688
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 2: And this was the main messaging I was getting from

689
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party and the run up to a crucial election,

690
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 2: and it just felt wrong to me that this was

691
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 2: the way that the brand was being leveraged. You know,

692
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 2: as a local scientist, I think of, you know, parties,

693
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 2: like the most important thing they have is their brand.

694
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 2: That's what wins you elections. How people view your party,

695
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 2: and the way that the brand was being presented to

696
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 2: voters and especially to donors was really problematic to me,

697
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: and so that's why I started looking into it. And

698
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 2: I've been studying campaign finance for fifteen years now. That's

699
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 2: sort of an area that I have a lot of

700
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 2: expertise in, and so I know all the ins and

701
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: out out of it and sort of how you know

702
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 2: FEC or those schedule Election Commission records and that all

703
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 2: these public disloatures work. So I thought, I mean, I'll

704
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 2: just take a look and see if there's anything connecting

705
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 2: these types of messages.

706
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 1: And let me pause you here because you note this

707
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 1: in your sub stack. You really thought, man, that I'm

708
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: just going to spend a couple of days and then

709
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: after a couple of days, I'll be able to unravel

710
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: this in a couple of days. Well, tell me how

711
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 1: long a couple of days do? Well?

712
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 2: The first Insight book about five minutes, which was, Oh,

713
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 2: all of this is going back to like all these

714
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 2: messages that I'm getting that are of this type are

715
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 2: coming from basically one firm, Mothership Strategies.

716
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 1: It's really called mother Ship, right, that's the actual name.

717
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 1: You know. There was a part of me that thought,

718
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 1: is this is this satire? Is this part of the barity? Right?

719
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 1: Like I mean, you know, I guess you could say

720
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 1: the founders of this scam a had a sense of humor.

721
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: So Mothership Strategies.

722
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, so it goes even deeper than that, and

723
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 2: I'll explain it a bit the Mothership strategy. So this is

724
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 2: a firm that is part of a larger sort of

725
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 2: digital fundraising UH industry that exists within both parties, but

726
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,720
Speaker 2: focusing there on the Democratic side. This firm was started

727
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 2: by three former employees who had run the digital fundraising

728
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:44,720
Speaker 2: operations for the dtrib C and the Democratic Congrettional Campaign

729
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 2: Committee that.

730
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 1: House, Yeah, the House campaign arm yep.

731
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 2: So like the official party committee, and it has spun

732
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 2: off and they had they had left and sort of

733
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: private tized a tactic that they had uh sort of

734
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 2: perfected while they were at the d triples And what.

735
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: Cycle would they were they there? This is like twenty fourteen, right.

736
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 2: Twenty fourteen. They didn't seem to get much traction early on.

737
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, well and then a certain orange haired man came

738
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 1: down the stairs elevator.

739
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 2: Well it happened actually before that. So they didn't seem

740
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 2: to have many clients early on. And their first client

741
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 2: was a pack called end Citizens United. If you get

742
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 2: these messages you may be familiar with it. It turns

743
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: out that they had started this pack that three people

744
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 2: had started Mothership to be their first client, and so

745
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 2: they started.

746
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: Basically, the consultant needed a client, So they invented the client.

747
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: Let's create a client, so they were immediately on both

748
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 1: sides of the transaction. Okay, got it.

749
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 2: And in terms of fundraising, because of the types of

750
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 2: tactics that they were using, it happened to be very

751
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 2: effective at raising money and so just caught the attention

752
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 2: of a lot of people who were more were interested

753
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 2: in raising a lot of money for the campaign or

754
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 2: their cause, and it just sort of took off from there.

755
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: Anything that makes fundraising easier a consultant is going or

756
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: a candidate would love to do. In a weird way,

757
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 1: I get why this was attractive at first. Oh my god.

758
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: You mean I don't have to dial for dollars or

759
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 1: I don't have to like show up to a fundraiser.

760
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: I don't have to travel to Martha's Vineyard or Napa

761
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,959
Speaker 1: Valley and suck up to rich people that I really

762
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 1: don't have anything in common with. Boy, this would be

763
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: great if this really works as great as you tell

764
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 1: me it works, mothership.

765
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is the number one complaint camp.

766
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 2: Like Kennedy, it's give you all the time. It's like,

767
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 2: I am sick and tired of fundraising all the time.

768
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 2: And so if someone comes and says, I can raise

769
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 2: a ton of money for you through small donors, that's

770
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 2: going to be attractive. The problem is is once you

771
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 2: start seeing the types of messages they're sending and actually

772
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:55,320
Speaker 2: who they are getting money from, it becomes a whole

773
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 2: different set of questions. It's really that's where the really

774
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: troubling aspect of this comes from, not just the damage

775
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 2: it does to the Democratic Party brand, but the more

776
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 2: and more I dug into this, it was this isn't really,

777
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 2: in my sort of like reading of the data, a

778
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 2: very predatory approach to fundraising.

779
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: To the point where if you wanted to make a

780
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: criminal you might be able to look at this through

781
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: criminal statutes.

782
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

783
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 1: I don't think so.

784
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 2: I don't think there are any if it.

785
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: Is predatory knowledge. Yeah, well I would use.

786
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: The term predatory, not in the uh like illegal sense,

787
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 2: but in the like they are doing everything that I

788
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 2: believe from my reading of campaign finance law, I do

789
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 2: not see anything that they are doing that is technically illegal.

790
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 1: So this is technically right, right right? So yeah, so

791
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: when they now, could this be under I mean, could

792
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 1: the FTC or could a state attorney general say you're

793
00:47:55,120 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 1: committing borderline fraud slash predator. You're you're, you're, you're, you're

794
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 1: using predatory practices to raise money.

795
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So there was a CNN uh uh like in

796
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 2: depth reporting uh investigation on these thousands of different complaints

797
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 2: that had been sent by largely like children of people

798
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 2: who had been uh uh, the children of elderly parents,

799
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,800
Speaker 2: right of elderly parents who had given hundreds of thousands

800
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 2: of dollars did these fundraising operations. Many of them were

801
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 2: suffering from dementia and other forms of cognitive decline, and

802
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 2: they were rightfully very upset about what had transpired. And

803
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: so the complaints are there, but there's not at this

804
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 2: moment anything you know, at the federal level that would

805
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 2: suggest that this is outright illegal. Now, should the Democratic

806
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 2: Party be engaging or condoning this type of activity, I

807
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 2: think that's an entirely different question, and they have no

808
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: obligation to say that this is okay. The problem is

809
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 2: the e trip. We'll see the d SEC, the official

810
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 2: campaign committees are engaging in these same tactics. They may

811
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 2: not be employing mothership, but there they're the way in

812
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 2: which their fundraising looks a lot like what we see

813
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 2: from these more unsavory packs.

814
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: Let's go back to Mothership, because you ended up discovering

815
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 1: that I don't know what else to call this but

816
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 1: a form of money laundering, because it was moving money around.

817
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: Money would be in one place, then it would show

818
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: up in another pack. Then that pack would take the

819
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,400
Speaker 1: money that it received from one pack and pay it

820
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: to another pack, and it all ended up back at mothership.

821
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 1: Explain how that loop worked, because you found you'd find

822
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 1: one ENITYS and Citizens United would then be working with

823
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,319
Speaker 1: and let me get my these other entities. You name

824
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: quite a few of them, and I do think people

825
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 1: want to know which names you had. The Restive turnout Projects,

826
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: Stop Republicans, National Democratic Training Committee, a couple of campaigns,

827
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: John Asoff's campaign for Senate and Jamie Harrison's campaign for Senate.

828
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:12,279
Speaker 1: And it's interesting that Jamie, when I first read your piece,

829
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 1: the first campaign I thought about that I thought got

830
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 1: scammed by their own fundraising team was Jamie Harrison's. Because

831
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 1: here's a guy, how'd you raise one hundred million dollars

832
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 1: but not really have one hundred million dollars? And now

833
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:28,879
Speaker 1: you've explained the story of how that happened? So how

834
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 1: did you connect n Citizen United and Progressive Turnout Project

835
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 1: for instance.

836
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 2: So one of these structures that you see in these

837
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 2: pack islands, so everything needs to be disclosed to the FEC.

838
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 2: And they're usually come in these clusters of packs. So

839
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: for instance, there's is a cluster of seven packs including

840
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:53,959
Speaker 2: Progressive Turnout Project and Stop Republicans and also Stopped Trump.

841
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 2: There's a number of pretty high fundary high raising packs

842
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 2: in this group. They're all by the same treasure, So

843
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:02,440
Speaker 2: it's the.

844
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 1: Same individual who signs the forms to the FPC basically okay, right,

845
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 1: and so you can see they share a KEO box too.

846
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 2: I mean it's just the same person.

847
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: So like you said, he he like reports.

848
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 2: As being these pacts being affiliated too, So it's not

849
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 2: it's not some sort of like hidden secret.

850
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 1: Now if they admit they're alternative to the fp as

851
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 1: far as the FBC is concerned, they're like, okay, these facts,

852
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 1: these packs are all affiliated, so it's not unusual. So

853
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:38,480
Speaker 1: which which tells you Leathership isn't alone here by the way,

854
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 1: that this is a semi common tactic. Yes it is.

855
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 2: And so what they'll do is though there. So, for instance,

856
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 2: Stop Republicans, which has raised a lot of money in

857
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 2: recent election cycles, it's spent nothing on campaigns or elections.

858
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 2: Most of the money that they raised went back to

859
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 2: like fund raising fees and consultants. What didn't was transferred

860
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 2: over to Aggressive Turnout Project, which seems to be an

861
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 2: operations hub, and Progressive Turnout Project does appear to employ

862
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: people for turnout operations. If, like I've done a really

863
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 2: deep dive into their campaigns, it is spending, and maybe

864
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 2: fifteen percent of what they spend goes towards actual like

865
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:27,240
Speaker 2: turnout operation and independent expenditures, but otherwise the vast majority

866
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,840
Speaker 2: is not. And so you see all these six packs,

867
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,720
Speaker 2: only one of them is actually spending on campaigns and

868
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 2: the other ones will just raise money and then transfer

869
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,720
Speaker 2: the money over. But if you're someone who's not wise

870
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 2: to what these packs are, which until I looked into it,

871
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 2: I wasn't either, you would think I'm getting, you know,

872
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 2: these text messages from six different operations, right, They're not connected.

873
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 2: There's no reason for me to think they are. This

874
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 2: is just a normal way for people to fundraise, But

875
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 2: really it's you know, you could unsubscribe from one still

876
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 2: get messages from the others and have no idea that

877
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 2: they're run by the same person is in the same

878
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 2: donor list.

879
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 1: Look, if you get I'm somebody who I've signed up

880
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,760
Speaker 1: for enough mailers that I get these fund raising emails

881
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: from both parties and from candidates of both parties. The

882
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 1: tactics are very similar on both sides. Now they've each

883
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: this this end of the world is coming tactic. I

884
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 1: don't know what else to call it, but it's some

885
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,439
Speaker 1: form of that, like you know, and with the right,

886
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 1: with MAGA, it's Donald Trump personally is asking and if

887
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,959
Speaker 1: he you know, he's keeping he's checking a list, he's

888
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 1: looking to see if your name's there. That's sort of

889
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:38,879
Speaker 1: but it's it's it's very similar in tone, urgency, agitation

890
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:43,239
Speaker 1: and all of this, which which is like you said,

891
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 1: it's it's not illegal, but maybe maybe it should be,

892
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 1: but it's certainly predatory. But it's been lucrative, and.

893
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 2: He's been lucrative for the consultants. Right, The amount of mine,

894
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 2: going back to the actual things that that they are

895
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: claiming to hop support, is a very small fraction of

896
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 2: the overall total. So in terms of you know, being

897
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 2: a great thing for digital fundraising consultants. Yeah, the thing

898
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,879
Speaker 2: about it, like the point you raised about that both

899
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 2: parties having very similar tactics. That's absolutely like an astute authoration.

900
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:22,240
Speaker 2: Republicans are probably even worse on these types of tactics

901
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 2: and Democrats are. They seem to have more of the

902
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 2: money going directly back to Donald Trump. So I don't know, Oh,

903
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:31,440
Speaker 2: it's even right, No, no, no, no, I mean there is right.

904
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 1: In fact, there's some where he demands a piece if

905
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 1: you want to use his list, he's got to get

906
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: a He basically wants a licensing fee essentially to use

907
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 1: his name, name, image and likeness.

908
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 2: And I like one of the things I pondered was,

909
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 2: you know, Chris, you know, I thought what was happening

910
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 2: was there was like, you know, these sophisticated algorithms that

911
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 2: they were employing that they were sending out and doing

912
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:57,839
Speaker 2: av testing, so like some people would get one version

913
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 2: another a group of people would get another version message

914
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 2: and they just you know, overtime sort of landed on

915
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 2: these types of urgent, ridiculous like all caps messages that

916
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:12,720
Speaker 2: you know, to most of us just seemed really off putting,

917
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:16,879
Speaker 2: but at scale may have been somewhat effective at fundraising.

918
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 2: The more I looked into this, so now I don't

919
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 2: think that because the types of tactics that are used

920
00:55:22,640 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 2: looks like they just transferred directly directly from the tactics

921
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:30,720
Speaker 2: that are used in elder financial fraud schemes. So I

922
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 2: did a bunch of reading through the FDC and the

923
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:37,719
Speaker 2: ways in which they sort of manipulate people emotionally through

924
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 2: this urgency. They're like making people think they need to

925
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 2: make a decision immediately. These are all known tactics, and

926
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 2: it was really quite jarring when I started looking through

927
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 2: those and being like, oh, I can just categorize most

928
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:53,480
Speaker 2: of these messages into one of these different like elder

929
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 2: financial fraud tactics, and that was that was a pretty

930
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:58,359
Speaker 2: depressing moment, to be honest.

931
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 1: You know, Adam, I have a sort of a friend

932
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 1: I've become more friendlier with over the years who was

933
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 1: a source of mine at the RNC and Quit, I

934
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 1: think I have this story right. Essentially, Quit when he

935
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: saw a piece of mail that they sent out that

936
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 1: got returned and either it was either the woman called

937
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,319
Speaker 1: or she wrote in and said, hey, I know you

938
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:29,080
Speaker 1: need this money. You know tomorrow I don't get my

939
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:31,319
Speaker 1: social Security check for another week. I said, okay, if

940
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 1: I wait a week. Well, it was like and it

941
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 1: was like he was like, I'm out, and I mean

942
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 1: and that dude left politics. He was like he couldn't.

943
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 1: He is out of campaign politics altogether. D R you name.

944
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 1: It was just like sick to his stomach. Right, it

945
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,759
Speaker 1: was just one of those hit him and he was out.

946
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 1: And and you know he's desperate to find any character

947
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 1: you know, left in politics. But it really does prey

948
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:00,879
Speaker 1: on older people and parties are doing this.

949
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 2: And let me give you a couple stats. So the

950
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 2: other aspect of it is, it's not like most of

951
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 2: this money is coming from people just getting five or

952
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 2: ten dollars and then being done with it. And the

953
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 2: way they describe the tactics, the Mothership has described it

954
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 2: themselves this way, I believe as burning churn. So this

955
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 2: idea that you're just burning through these donor lists and like,

956
00:57:24,200 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 2: you know, scraping up a little like a few people

957
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 2: like one out of ten thousand who might be donating.

958
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't even care. And they're not even getting

959
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 1: a one percent return rate, are they It's less than

960
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 1: a one percent. It's not even close to that.

961
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 2: But what I learned was that's not what's happening. So

962
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 2: here's some example. So I was looking through the types

963
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 2: of people who were giving this money. So the vast majority,

964
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 2: so five hundred and forty million of the dollars raisins

965
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 2: twenty twenty of these spam packs have come from individuals

966
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 2: who have donated at least ten times. But most of

967
00:57:57,080 --> 00:58:00,080
Speaker 2: that money is coming from a really small group of

968
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 2: what I would say like captivated donors. So fran instance,

969
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 2: there's an eighty nine year old woman in Indianapolis. She's

970
00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 2: donated to these spam TACs seventy five hundred times, oh

971
00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 2: my god, and she has given a total of sixty

972
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 2: eight thousand dollars. There's an eighty four year old retirement

973
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 2: in Ohio who's given two thousand times, totally, totally, not

974
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 2: two hundred thousand dollars almost. There's just I have lists

975
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 2: of people like this and you can see where they live.

976
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 2: They live in usually sort of middle class or rural

977
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 2: areas and not.

978
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 1: These aren't wealthy people, and they're just oh my god,

979
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 1: so whatever I mean, they're just getting nickel and dime

980
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 1: the way the way somebody you know the way somebody

981
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 1: gets nickel and dime by in app purchases. Sometimes when

982
00:58:45,080 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 1: a kid, you know, with your five or six year old,

983
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,080
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you realize why am I

984
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: paying five dollars a week to what? And these elderly

985
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 1: and they also end up clicking the make it a

986
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 1: recurring payment? Right? Isn't that like they usually don't click

987
00:58:58,720 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: it often?

988
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 2: So this is so like a dark patterns thing. They

989
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 2: often automatically put that on.

990
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: You have to you have to uncheck it if you

991
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 1: don't want it. Yes, it's a negative check. Oh god,

992
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 1: this is just tragic. I imagine you almost want to

993
00:59:23,720 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 1: reach out to these people you've been scammed.

994
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 2: Yes, So one good development that I've seen happening is

995
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 2: so act Blue. I believe they had been working on

996
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 2: this beforehand, but immediately after I published that piece, the

997
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:47,920
Speaker 2: CEO from act Blue reached out to me and let's talk,

998
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 2: and they about a week later they implemented new rules

999
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 2: changes so that most of these tactics that I had

1000
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 2: described would no longer be allowed on the platform.

1001
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 1: And we're the where mothership using back blue was at

1002
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 1: their primary facilitator.

1003
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 2: Yes, and they the problem is they still are because

1004
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 2: it's the problem for Act Blue is they're stuck in

1005
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 2: this like hard place where they want to clean up

1006
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 2: the fundraising like environment. That's that's uh they seem to

1007
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,680
Speaker 2: and they're like putting rules in place, but the party

1008
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 2: leadership seems to be using these tactics too. This is

1009
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:30,440
Speaker 2: something that has been pretty problematic, or at least I

1010
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 2: think in terms of like if they want to enforce

1011
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 2: this stuff, they would have to kick off the d

1012
01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: Triple C. They would have to kick off the d SEC.

1013
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 2: I literally just got a message from the d s

1014
01:00:38,200 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 2: CC this weekend saying that they were going to four

1015
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 2: x match my donation. And that's not a thing. You

1016
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 2: can't do that.

1017
01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's illegal. That's actually if you did that, that

1018
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 1: is a crime, by the.

1019
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 2: Ways, But it's extremely effective for a certain type of

1020
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:58,400
Speaker 2: bonner who believes that's happening. And you know, so where

1021
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 2: does that leave you know? Act Blue? I think they

1022
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 2: want a clean house, but it's politically yeah.

1023
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 1: Is it politically though? But I mean like this is

1024
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:13,960
Speaker 1: where you know. I mean, my friend Toning Cornizer likes

1025
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 1: to say, they answered all your problems is money, And

1026
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 1: sometimes the answer to all your Uh. The the solution

1027
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 1: every problem is money, and the and and the diagnosis

1028
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 1: for every problem sometimes is money. Right, how much do

1029
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:30,439
Speaker 1: they not want to give up? How much is being fun?

1030
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:32,919
Speaker 1: You know? They make money for anybody that raises money

1031
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 1: off of their platform.

1032
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, so they make some money for this tax so.

1033
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 1: The Mothership they in theory have made a lot of

1034
01:01:40,760 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 1: money off of Mothership.

1035
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:47,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. Oh Act Blue yes, yeah they have and act flues.

1036
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 1: Uh.

1037
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 2: So they just went under a sort of leadership change.

1038
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:54,280
Speaker 2: So I think that has something to do with this untolple.

1039
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:58,040
Speaker 2: They've been responsive to me and other people who have

1040
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:01,920
Speaker 2: worked in the space about trying to eliminate these tactics

1041
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: from the platform. I'm hoping to see more progress in

1042
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 2: the near future, and so at least that's a good

1043
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,520
Speaker 2: signal that something's being done. Now.

1044
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:14,080
Speaker 1: I want you to do that. Big numbers, Yeah, tell

1045
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 1: me how. I still I couldn't believe the number, the

1046
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 1: amount of money that Mothership has raised through all of

1047
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 1: these packs, and the amount of money that has actually

1048
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:27,600
Speaker 1: been spent on campaigns as they promised to do.

1049
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 2: So we can take the so they get the Mothership

1050
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 2: has raised something like two hundred and eighty like directly

1051
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 2: going to the firm as payments has been getting transferred.

1052
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 2: About two hundred and eighty million dollars they have as.

1053
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:53,520
Speaker 1: So much they've pocketed r yes, okay.

1054
01:02:54,200 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 2: My estimate is that this is based off of about

1055
01:02:57,000 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 2: six hundred and eighty million dollars raised.

1056
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 1: Okay, So, and so where's the other four hundred million?

1057
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 2: Uh? The other four hundred million.

1058
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 1: So if they've pocketed eighty two, they've raised about six

1059
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty. So let'sick round abup two eighty six

1060
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,080
Speaker 1: eighty we're missing about four hundred million.

1061
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 2: Where So about of that another one hundred and thirty

1062
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 2: two million I believe was spent on other consulting firms

1063
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 2: like related in that space, you brought up a.

1064
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 1: Firm called Message Digital LLC.

1065
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:32,800
Speaker 2: That's it's digital Yes, yeah.

1066
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 1: Did you ever who pocketed a twenty two million? Did

1067
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 1: you ever figure out who they are? Orally?

1068
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:42,880
Speaker 2: Just another they're another democratic fundraising operation. You can go

1069
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:45,760
Speaker 2: look at their website. They have clients like Chuck Schumer.

1070
01:03:45,960 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 2: They're the ones. What their their Their service that they

1071
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:53,520
Speaker 2: sell or like they pitched to campaigns and candidates and consultants,

1072
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:58,640
Speaker 2: is that they can get around the like mobile carriers,

1073
01:03:58,960 --> 01:04:02,040
Speaker 2: spam filters, so they know how to get around and

1074
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 2: get those messages to us. That seems to be their

1075
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:08,760
Speaker 2: pitch if you read the website and you can get

1076
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: a sense of why that would be a valuable for

1077
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:13,000
Speaker 2: you know, a spam fund raising firm like this.

1078
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 1: Other show, right, I got you, Okay, So there's there's that.

1079
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:22,480
Speaker 1: We got about another two hundred and fifty million here, Yeah.

1080
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 2: So the other so another about fifteen million of that

1081
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 2: goes to like campaign contributions and independent expenditures. Another like,

1082
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 2: as far as I can tell, my best estimate is

1083
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 2: another about one p eight million, and I've done like

1084
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:43,480
Speaker 2: much deeper digging into this more recently goes to what

1085
01:04:43,600 --> 01:04:48,720
Speaker 2: could be classified is organizational or turnout efforts, okay. And

1086
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 2: then another chunk of about ten million goes to refunds

1087
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 2: to donors who said I didn't want to donate, Who's

1088
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:56,160
Speaker 2: bring back my money?

1089
01:04:56,560 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 1: And then the.

1090
01:04:57,080 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 2: Rest just sort of disappears into administrative costs and pay

1091
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:03,440
Speaker 2: and so it's hard, it's hard to get an exact

1092
01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 2: number where everything's going, but that from the disbursement data

1093
01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 2: that I have access to, those are my best estimates.

1094
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 1: And again seventeen million total to the campaigns themselves well.

1095
01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:18,920
Speaker 2: And most of us going to the D Triple C

1096
01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:20,680
Speaker 2: around healf of the account.

1097
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:23,919
Speaker 1: Just the big chunk of cash that they just said

1098
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 1: to the three big committees, this isn't necessarily to House.

1099
01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 1: You know, that special election House race that they may

1100
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,160
Speaker 1: have been talking about in the fundraising email may not

1101
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 1: have gotten a dollar.

1102
01:05:35,720 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is excluding the money they've raised for people

1103
01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:42,920
Speaker 2: like Jamie Harrison. Like I consider that as a different category.

1104
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 2: So I think they've raised another like four hundred million

1105
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:50,760
Speaker 2: in four campaign like anidates themselves. But I'm looking more

1106
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:52,720
Speaker 2: at the sort of spam pack and they no longer

1107
01:05:52,760 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 2: have those types of clients as far as I can

1108
01:05:54,440 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 2: tell that the candidates are no longer hiring mother There

1109
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:02,040
Speaker 2: are other firms that do the same thing, but they're

1110
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 2: now hiring or they say peer to be all the

1111
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:08,920
Speaker 2: people who had been hired, that had hired Mothership now

1112
01:06:08,960 --> 01:06:11,320
Speaker 2: have shifted over to other related Did Mothership try.

1113
01:06:11,200 --> 01:06:14,400
Speaker 1: To explain what they're doing? Did they push back? Did they? Yeah?

1114
01:06:14,440 --> 01:06:16,360
Speaker 1: What did they? What did there? What is their explanation?

1115
01:06:18,440 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 2: They sort of make the argument and they put out

1116
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 2: a public statement on medium. I can't find it anymore

1117
01:06:24,520 --> 01:06:26,280
Speaker 2: than they have taken it down. But they basically made

1118
01:06:26,320 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 2: the argument that what is necessary evil that you know,

1119
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:35,919
Speaker 2: we need to combat the Trump administration and our health

1120
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:40,680
Speaker 2: tactics are effective. Ah in like they did not like

1121
01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:44,720
Speaker 2: they would not respond to like idiot my like questions,

1122
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 2: uh in sort of response to their statements about like

1123
01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 2: what about these like predit like the why are all

1124
01:06:51,600 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 2: your why is all your money coming from senior? But

1125
01:06:54,800 --> 01:06:57,280
Speaker 2: why are your tactical look like elder financial fraud? They

1126
01:06:57,320 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 2: have not addressed that at all. They basically fell back

1127
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 2: on look where where you know fundraising because we need

1128
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:08,800
Speaker 2: to oppose a Trump administration and that's just a necessary evil.

1129
01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:11,240
Speaker 2: And then they also sort of crought it out some

1130
01:07:11,960 --> 01:07:15,400
Speaker 2: like candidates who had who had backed their efforts or

1131
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:18,720
Speaker 2: like putout statements. So like Cherry Bustos was one of them,

1132
01:07:19,000 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 2: and like she came to their defense and said, look,

1133
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:26,040
Speaker 2: I've worked with Mothership and there's this great organization and

1134
01:07:26,080 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 2: they you know, raise a bunch of money and so

1135
01:07:28,840 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 2: you know, I'm proud of the work that they I've

1136
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:33,280
Speaker 2: done with them. She used to be the chair of

1137
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:35,439
Speaker 2: the DTRAC, right, So we sort of get the sense

1138
01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:39,280
Speaker 2: that this is disconnect to the party in a way

1139
01:07:39,320 --> 01:07:40,720
Speaker 2: that is really troubling.

1140
01:07:41,200 --> 01:07:44,720
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's interesting, you're you're booking obviously you

1141
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:47,320
Speaker 1: put this out in August. You know, we were able

1142
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:50,920
Speaker 1: to finally get time for this for the podcast now

1143
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 1: here at the end of September. But it's actually good

1144
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:56,280
Speaker 1: timing because I don't know if you've been paying attention

1145
01:07:56,440 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 1: to the debate about the so called autopsy of the

1146
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:02,560
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five or campaign that the DNC was and

1147
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 1: that there's this huge lobbying effort by consultants to basically,

1148
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,800
Speaker 1: you know, they don't want to be shame for how

1149
01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: much money they made off of a bad campaign essentially,

1150
01:08:13,200 --> 01:08:15,880
Speaker 1: and they're afraid of their name showing up and essentially

1151
01:08:16,080 --> 01:08:20,280
Speaker 1: having happened to them what I believe. Look, Mothership earned this,

1152
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:22,480
Speaker 1: this is what they did. So you're going to get scrutiny,

1153
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:26,719
Speaker 1: which you came up with. But I think frankly seeing

1154
01:08:26,760 --> 01:08:29,479
Speaker 1: what happened with Mothership and realizing there's gonna be a

1155
01:08:29,479 --> 01:08:31,679
Speaker 1: lot more people asking questions and if those firm names

1156
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 1: get out there, there's going to be deeper dives and

1157
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 1: trying to figure out you know, look, James Carvell sort

1158
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:39,800
Speaker 1: of threw it out there without name and names, but

1159
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:41,599
Speaker 1: he got angry one day in a rant and he said,

1160
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 1: you know, if you're trying, you know, you can't be

1161
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:48,400
Speaker 1: worried about the carried interest lobby when you're trying to

1162
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:51,600
Speaker 1: save democracy. And he was referring to a couple of

1163
01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:56,479
Speaker 1: close Harris consultants who were had clients that were worried

1164
01:08:56,520 --> 01:09:00,639
Speaker 1: about carried interests going away, you know that tax code,

1165
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:02,760
Speaker 1: and you're just like, okay, you know what I mean.

1166
01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 1: You just your head goes right in your hand. You're like,

1167
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:09,160
Speaker 1: you know, you're telling us democracy is on the ballot,

1168
01:09:09,320 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 1: but hey about carried interest. You know.

1169
01:09:13,840 --> 01:09:16,400
Speaker 2: I think this finally mentally feeds into some of the

1170
01:09:16,439 --> 01:09:20,639
Speaker 2: weaknesses that Democrats have experienced in recent years. Right now

1171
01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:23,439
Speaker 2: and then, like, there's this trend in polling data that

1172
01:09:23,560 --> 01:09:26,800
Speaker 2: is just like sheltered out at you, which is when

1173
01:09:26,840 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 2: people are asked what they're most concerned about corruptions, like

1174
01:09:30,160 --> 01:09:32,559
Speaker 2: at the top of the list. You have just did

1175
01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 2: a poll about what percentage of like what percent of

1176
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:39,320
Speaker 2: people thought that like a member of Congress would accept

1177
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:42,439
Speaker 2: a bribe. It was like seventy one percent of people

1178
01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:43,679
Speaker 2: there and they're.

1179
01:09:43,560 --> 01:09:46,559
Speaker 1: Well, you mean they're shocked that somebody might accept a

1180
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:51,000
Speaker 1: bribe in public service. When the former head of the

1181
01:09:51,000 --> 01:09:55,360
Speaker 1: Border Patrol took fifty thousand dollars and they just they

1182
01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:58,680
Speaker 1: didn't even charge them, they didn't deny it happened. Yeah,

1183
01:09:58,840 --> 01:10:01,840
Speaker 1: well we don't have enough evidence to charge, but you

1184
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:03,000
Speaker 1: got your back of cash.

1185
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 2: Okay, they're not wrong. So the public is very concerned

1186
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 2: about public corruption. It is, from what I can tell

1187
01:10:11,720 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 2: right now in pulling data, issue number one that is

1188
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:19,639
Speaker 2: a massive opening for the Democratic Party. Anti corruption has

1189
01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:26,000
Speaker 2: been probably, bar none, the most effective anti authoritarian strategy globally.

1190
01:10:26,479 --> 01:10:29,680
Speaker 2: We see tons and tons of examples of it.

1191
01:10:29,680 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 1: It works at any time any parties, any party that's

1192
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:35,719
Speaker 1: out of power, who's trying to get rid of a party,

1193
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 1: you know, beat back a party that's been in power,

1194
01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 1: say more than eight years, there's always a corruption angle

1195
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:43,640
Speaker 1: that usually succeeds, right, it says one party rule. We

1196
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:47,200
Speaker 1: all know after about year eight or nine, somebody's deciding

1197
01:10:47,200 --> 01:10:49,720
Speaker 1: to make money off of this, and you start to

1198
01:10:49,760 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 1: see it. It happens. We've experienced it in our lifetimes.

1199
01:10:53,520 --> 01:10:57,720
Speaker 1: We've watched the parties do this it's effective in our democracy,

1200
01:10:57,720 --> 01:11:00,120
Speaker 1: but you're right, it's times one hundred when it comes

1201
01:10:59,960 --> 01:11:01,760
Speaker 1: to stopping authoritarian.

1202
01:11:02,040 --> 01:11:05,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so this is this is the opening democrats.

1203
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:08,519
Speaker 2: It's the type of coalition you build that doesn't have

1204
01:11:08,600 --> 01:11:10,400
Speaker 2: the types of trade offs where you have to you know,

1205
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:12,679
Speaker 2: push people to left out of the way or tell

1206
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 2: like moderates that they're no longer really important or anything

1207
01:11:16,640 --> 01:11:18,360
Speaker 2: like that. You don't have those types of trade offs,

1208
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:20,679
Speaker 2: and it appeals to the working class. So like we're

1209
01:11:20,680 --> 01:11:23,080
Speaker 2: on the same page of this. I think to the

1210
01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:24,840
Speaker 2: problem is you look at the same polling data and

1211
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 2: people think Democrats are just as corruptive Republicans. I would

1212
01:11:28,479 --> 01:11:31,320
Speaker 2: personally take issue with that, even like the scale of things,

1213
01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:34,040
Speaker 2: but I think people look at what happens in fundraising.

1214
01:11:34,320 --> 01:11:39,400
Speaker 2: They look at the democratic parties insistence on the need

1215
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:45,360
Speaker 2: to raise money from billionaires and mega donors, and they

1216
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:48,679
Speaker 2: see that effectively as a type of corruption as well.

1217
01:11:48,880 --> 01:11:53,599
Speaker 2: And for Democrats to effectively take on this anti corruption angle,

1218
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:55,120
Speaker 2: I think the first thing they need to do is

1219
01:11:55,160 --> 01:11:58,519
Speaker 2: clean house, and that starts with their fundraising practices. This is,

1220
01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:01,519
Speaker 2: you know, beyond the pale, the type of stuff you

1221
01:12:01,560 --> 01:12:05,240
Speaker 2: see from these digital fundraising and consultants. But anyone involved

1222
01:12:05,240 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 2: in this type of thing should have nothing to do

1223
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:11,120
Speaker 2: with an anti corruption party, right, Like these consultants who

1224
01:12:11,120 --> 01:12:14,519
Speaker 2: are upset about this, they you know this, not all

1225
01:12:14,600 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 2: consultants on the democratic side, but the most the most

1226
01:12:18,400 --> 01:12:21,719
Speaker 2: successful consultants appear to be the ones engagement type of behavior.

1227
01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:23,479
Speaker 2: And you know that's so bad.

1228
01:12:23,840 --> 01:12:26,439
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. The consultants you know by name

1229
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:28,920
Speaker 1: are not the corrupt ones because their name is out

1230
01:12:28,960 --> 01:12:32,200
Speaker 1: there in some ways, they they're they're trading on their

1231
01:12:32,200 --> 01:12:36,400
Speaker 1: own reputations. The most corrupt ones are always the people

1232
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:39,599
Speaker 1: that do this stuff that's like a layer or two

1233
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:43,160
Speaker 1: below that we all don't see. The digital guy, the

1234
01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:48,320
Speaker 1: phone people. It's it's always in this arena where there's

1235
01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:51,840
Speaker 1: only like a handful of vendors, and they they've become

1236
01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:55,520
Speaker 1: the vendor for like it. It is the most corruptible

1237
01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:58,800
Speaker 1: part of the political consulting world. I'm not saying they're

1238
01:12:58,840 --> 01:13:01,360
Speaker 1: all those guys that do owns and do this are corrupt.

1239
01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:03,839
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that. But there's a lot of evidence

1240
01:13:04,200 --> 01:13:08,680
Speaker 1: of corruptibility there in the fundraising side because there's just

1241
01:13:08,760 --> 01:13:11,920
Speaker 1: so much cash it and it's moving around all the time.

1242
01:13:12,680 --> 01:13:16,000
Speaker 1: It really is. It's like any cash business. You know,

1243
01:13:16,160 --> 01:13:19,360
Speaker 1: you you you know, we've all watched Ozark. It kind

1244
01:13:19,360 --> 01:13:20,920
Speaker 1: of works that way. You hate to say it, but

1245
01:13:21,000 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 1: it does.

1246
01:13:23,160 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 2: And the sad irony of this all So, as I mentioned,

1247
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:30,840
Speaker 2: I've been studying campaign finance for a lot of time,

1248
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:34,120
Speaker 2: like I know, but spend all my time in this

1249
01:13:34,280 --> 01:13:38,280
Speaker 2: data and how it affects elections. It really matters in

1250
01:13:38,320 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 2: a lot of ways for American politics, like who we

1251
01:13:40,240 --> 01:13:44,040
Speaker 2: select to end for office, and like primaries, this like

1252
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 2: mega donor fundraising or the type of fundraising that's coming

1253
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:52,880
Speaker 2: in from these like more corrupted channels. It's almost like

1254
01:13:52,960 --> 01:13:55,760
Speaker 2: the evidence is it's basically not effective at all. So

1255
01:13:56,800 --> 01:13:58,680
Speaker 2: like money going to a campaign so they can hire

1256
01:13:58,760 --> 01:14:02,760
Speaker 2: staff and put together and is useful, money spent by

1257
01:14:02,760 --> 01:14:06,360
Speaker 2: super PACs appears to have basically no effect on both sharinges,

1258
01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:10,240
Speaker 2: like little to no effect, you know, maybe a tenth

1259
01:14:10,320 --> 01:14:14,080
Speaker 2: of a percentage point if you double your opponents like

1260
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:17,599
Speaker 2: super pac fundraising, you know, just you know, tiny little

1261
01:14:17,840 --> 01:14:20,439
Speaker 2: sliver of the population. But to do that, you're giving

1262
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:24,519
Speaker 2: up your credibility and a party that can fight corruption.

1263
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:26,680
Speaker 2: It's just I don't see the trade off as being

1264
01:14:26,720 --> 01:14:29,599
Speaker 2: worth it. Consultants get very mad when I say that,

1265
01:14:29,680 --> 01:14:32,800
Speaker 2: but they're the only ones who do so.

1266
01:14:33,760 --> 01:14:35,760
Speaker 1: All right, let me get you to answer this sort

1267
01:14:35,760 --> 01:14:40,439
Speaker 1: of pushback about fundraising tactics, which is which I hear

1268
01:14:40,479 --> 01:14:41,960
Speaker 1: all the time from my friends on the left. Well,

1269
01:14:42,000 --> 01:14:43,720
Speaker 1: we don't want to tie one arm behind our back.

1270
01:14:44,160 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, but tell you and so, first of all, you

1271
01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:51,439
Speaker 2: didn't tie that arm behind your back. You cut it

1272
01:14:51,479 --> 01:14:55,479
Speaker 2: off and give it to consultants. That's where we're at

1273
01:14:55,880 --> 01:14:58,200
Speaker 2: if we just want to be realistic about it. But secondly,

1274
01:14:58,720 --> 01:15:01,960
Speaker 2: the money you raise their just that's not what wins

1275
01:15:02,000 --> 01:15:06,120
Speaker 2: contemporary elections. They're raising more money than your opponent. Having

1276
01:15:06,160 --> 01:15:08,839
Speaker 2: a better party brand is going to win that battle.

1277
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:14,439
Speaker 1: Every time Donald Trump has been outspent in twenty sixty,

1278
01:15:14,600 --> 01:15:18,560
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, and in twenty twenty four discuss.

1279
01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:24,040
Speaker 2: That is consistent with the empirical evidence that we have

1280
01:15:24,240 --> 01:15:28,200
Speaker 2: that the ad campaign advertising has very small effects. There

1281
01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:30,800
Speaker 2: was this really great study that came out recently that

1282
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:34,760
Speaker 2: was that has the highest quality standard of like experimental

1283
01:15:34,760 --> 01:15:38,479
Speaker 2: study on campaign ads. They had Facebook like show ads

1284
01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:41,519
Speaker 2: to some people but randomly have other people not then

1285
01:15:41,560 --> 01:15:43,840
Speaker 2: they could track all their political behavior after like whether

1286
01:15:43,880 --> 01:15:48,240
Speaker 2: they supported Tromp or or Biden because it was in

1287
01:15:48,240 --> 01:15:51,840
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. They found zero effect. That's like the highest

1288
01:15:51,920 --> 01:15:54,480
Speaker 2: level would be there's like a thirty thousand people involved

1289
01:15:54,800 --> 01:15:58,759
Speaker 2: in the in the study, zero effect on their political behavior.

1290
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:01,400
Speaker 2: But this is where there's tons of money being spent.

1291
01:16:01,520 --> 01:16:04,000
Speaker 2: And the other thing that I think is really tragic

1292
01:16:04,080 --> 01:16:08,040
Speaker 2: here is that the Democrats have this massive built in

1293
01:16:08,200 --> 01:16:10,880
Speaker 2: fundraising advantage right now that they are squandering.

1294
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:12,559
Speaker 1: What's that advantage?

1295
01:16:13,640 --> 01:16:16,400
Speaker 2: So the young like they are out fundraising Republicans like

1296
01:16:16,520 --> 01:16:20,760
Speaker 2: right now. Republicans in this last election cycle, for their

1297
01:16:21,160 --> 01:16:25,719
Speaker 2: half of their money came from from one hundred donors,

1298
01:16:25,760 --> 01:16:28,280
Speaker 2: one hundred mega donors, got it. Fifty six percent of

1299
01:16:28,320 --> 01:16:31,120
Speaker 2: their money came from people giving over a million dollars.

1300
01:16:31,200 --> 01:16:34,759
Speaker 1: That's like the Adelson's and Elon Musk in that crowd. Yeah, okay,

1301
01:16:34,880 --> 01:16:35,200
Speaker 1: got it.

1302
01:16:35,240 --> 01:16:38,640
Speaker 2: For Democrats, it's about eighteen percent. If you cut that

1303
01:16:38,680 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 2: eighteen percent off, they still would have outfundraised Republicans.

1304
01:16:42,760 --> 01:16:45,200
Speaker 1: But so they have more upper middle Basically, they have

1305
01:16:45,200 --> 01:16:48,320
Speaker 1: more upper middle class donors than the Republican valley, like

1306
01:16:48,320 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 1: it used to be the other way We're like, this

1307
01:16:50,120 --> 01:16:51,800
Speaker 1: is the law. This goes to the whole loss of

1308
01:16:51,840 --> 01:16:54,839
Speaker 1: the suburban vote. The suburban vote which once lead Republican

1309
01:16:54,880 --> 01:17:00,760
Speaker 1: and therefore they had a lot of the five dollar donors.

1310
01:17:01,000 --> 01:17:03,680
Speaker 1: Now it's the Democrats that have the five thousand dollars donors.

1311
01:17:04,040 --> 01:17:06,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's good to this. This advantage is just

1312
01:17:06,920 --> 01:17:10,200
Speaker 2: going to continue to grow if they don't squander it.

1313
01:17:10,240 --> 01:17:13,679
Speaker 2: With's eighty percent of people under forty who are donating

1314
01:17:13,760 --> 01:17:17,760
Speaker 2: aoltics no, I mean federal elections or giving to Democrats,

1315
01:17:18,200 --> 01:17:21,080
Speaker 2: exclusively to Democrats, they have won this entire sort of

1316
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:24,280
Speaker 2: young professional class that will be that's sort of you.

1317
01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:27,280
Speaker 1: Know, work money at speech, future money is speech. How

1318
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:30,920
Speaker 1: are you going to I mean this gets Yeah, I've

1319
01:17:32,439 --> 01:17:36,560
Speaker 1: I've come. I've come around on on campaign finance. I

1320
01:17:37,560 --> 01:17:41,360
Speaker 1: was a I always like to use the example and

1321
01:17:41,400 --> 01:17:42,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've ever heard me use it

1322
01:17:42,960 --> 01:17:46,040
Speaker 1: in some of my apologies if you have, but the

1323
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:48,840
Speaker 1: metaphor I would use was always a the Jeffrey Goldbloom

1324
01:17:48,880 --> 01:17:53,120
Speaker 1: character in Jurassic Park. This is my issue with campaign

1325
01:17:53,200 --> 01:17:56,920
Speaker 1: finance laws because every every time you try one, it

1326
01:17:56,960 --> 01:18:01,120
Speaker 1: almost seems to create new loopholes, and so Jeffrey Goblum said,

1327
01:18:01,120 --> 01:18:03,479
Speaker 1: when when the old man in Jurassic Park said, hey,

1328
01:18:04,280 --> 01:18:07,360
Speaker 1: oh they're not going to breed, and Goldblum says, life

1329
01:18:07,360 --> 01:18:11,759
Speaker 1: finds a way. Well, that would always been my attitude

1330
01:18:11,800 --> 01:18:14,880
Speaker 1: about money and politics. No matter what you do, money

1331
01:18:14,880 --> 01:18:17,479
Speaker 1: finds a way. Oh you're not going to let them

1332
01:18:17,479 --> 01:18:19,120
Speaker 1: do soft money to the parties. Well, we're going to

1333
01:18:19,160 --> 01:18:21,360
Speaker 1: create five ozho one ced threes, and then we're going

1334
01:18:21,439 --> 01:18:23,600
Speaker 1: to do the Then you know, oh, you're not going

1335
01:18:23,680 --> 01:18:25,040
Speaker 1: to let this. We're going to do the super pac

1336
01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:26,719
Speaker 1: and then we're going to you know, there was always

1337
01:18:26,840 --> 01:18:30,920
Speaker 1: a new tax gimmick, using the tax code to find

1338
01:18:30,960 --> 01:18:33,960
Speaker 1: another way. Well, this money will only be able to

1339
01:18:34,000 --> 01:18:39,639
Speaker 1: be spent on political organizing, but it's softer over here,

1340
01:18:39,680 --> 01:18:41,760
Speaker 1: and then we have our hundred dollars over it. And

1341
01:18:42,400 --> 01:18:46,240
Speaker 1: the point was it, money always found a way. But

1342
01:18:46,320 --> 01:18:49,880
Speaker 1: we are getting to the point of absurdity right where

1343
01:18:50,280 --> 01:18:53,160
Speaker 1: every candidate now has to have their own billionaire. And

1344
01:18:53,240 --> 01:18:55,640
Speaker 1: if you don't have a sugar billionaire, sugar mommy or

1345
01:18:55,680 --> 01:18:59,040
Speaker 1: sugar daddy, you can't run for state wide office in America.

1346
01:18:59,280 --> 01:19:02,360
Speaker 1: And that that's when you realize, uh, oh, we have

1347
01:19:02,400 --> 01:19:03,919
Speaker 1: a kleptocracy.

1348
01:19:04,800 --> 01:19:08,439
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean I think that's an excellent analogy. Do

1349
01:19:08,520 --> 01:19:12,240
Speaker 2: but that that's my reading of the history of campaign

1350
01:19:12,280 --> 01:19:15,559
Speaker 2: finance regulation that you do see this pressure. The Supreme

1351
01:19:15,560 --> 01:19:19,280
Speaker 2: Court's mostly culpable in the recent vision.

1352
01:19:19,760 --> 01:19:21,720
Speaker 1: But is that the what was that what you'd like

1353
01:19:21,800 --> 01:19:29,080
Speaker 1: to see? You know, I had this, there's this movement

1354
01:19:29,160 --> 01:19:33,840
Speaker 1: to try to reinterpret Citizens United and reinterpret the campaign

1355
01:19:33,880 --> 01:19:39,240
Speaker 1: finance all using mains a referendum that was passed in Maine.

1356
01:19:39,439 --> 01:19:40,479
Speaker 1: We'll see what happens there.

1357
01:19:41,040 --> 01:19:45,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean ideally in the long run. Yes, I

1358
01:19:45,040 --> 01:19:48,000
Speaker 2: don't see that as a viable strategy in the near run.

1359
01:19:48,120 --> 01:19:51,200
Speaker 2: And so, you know, as a pragmatist, I don't see

1360
01:19:51,200 --> 01:19:54,080
Speaker 2: that as something the Democratic Party, like if they say

1361
01:19:54,120 --> 01:19:59,679
Speaker 2: we want to constitutional amendment on two band systems United Fine,

1362
01:19:59,720 --> 01:20:02,720
Speaker 2: I mean he's like eighty percent of the population supports that.

1363
01:20:03,120 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 2: So you're not going out on the limb there. But

1364
01:20:06,200 --> 01:20:09,479
Speaker 2: I think we're the real advantage that they could gain

1365
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:12,320
Speaker 2: right now is this is more of a they actually

1366
01:20:12,400 --> 01:20:15,880
Speaker 2: don't need this money. If they went back to saying

1367
01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:18,080
Speaker 2: we're only going to let people give us up to

1368
01:20:18,080 --> 01:20:19,920
Speaker 2: the one hundred and thirty thousand dollars limit that was

1369
01:20:19,960 --> 01:20:24,360
Speaker 2: in place before for Citizens United. And you know the

1370
01:20:24,400 --> 01:20:26,840
Speaker 2: rest of that money you'll spend on pro democracy stuff,

1371
01:20:26,840 --> 01:20:28,200
Speaker 2: but you can't give it to us because we don't

1372
01:20:28,200 --> 01:20:31,479
Speaker 2: want that appearance of corruption. The Democratic Party did that,

1373
01:20:31,840 --> 01:20:36,080
Speaker 2: they'd have more than enough money to fund their operations,

1374
01:20:36,280 --> 01:20:40,800
Speaker 2: and they would as a party, gain a huge credibility

1375
01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:43,720
Speaker 2: advantage against Republicans because they could say we're not the

1376
01:20:43,760 --> 01:20:46,320
Speaker 2: corrupt ones, look what we did. I don't see that

1377
01:20:46,360 --> 01:20:49,000
Speaker 2: as a realistic thing that the Democratic Party will do,

1378
01:20:49,600 --> 01:20:51,960
Speaker 2: but my god, I think it's something that they would

1379
01:20:52,120 --> 01:20:57,320
Speaker 2: absolutely be advantage from doing because that money, the amount

1380
01:20:57,320 --> 01:20:59,680
Speaker 2: they can raise from traditional fundraising sources, will more than

1381
01:20:59,720 --> 01:21:02,839
Speaker 2: make for what they lose from these mega donors.

1382
01:21:11,720 --> 01:21:13,519
Speaker 1: I think we're in a moment. Look, I would have

1383
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:17,160
Speaker 1: been more skeptical of that a couple of years ago,

1384
01:21:17,240 --> 01:21:21,640
Speaker 1: because it does you know. My my issue is I

1385
01:21:21,640 --> 01:21:25,760
Speaker 1: can't find an example of somebody losing over campaign finance issues, right,

1386
01:21:26,080 --> 01:21:28,800
Speaker 1: you don't you know? Are you know? It's one of

1387
01:21:28,840 --> 01:21:30,840
Speaker 1: those issues that when you ask a voter about it,

1388
01:21:31,000 --> 01:21:34,320
Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, I don't like the system, But when

1389
01:21:34,360 --> 01:21:36,120
Speaker 1: you ask them, what don't you like? In general? This

1390
01:21:36,200 --> 01:21:38,240
Speaker 1: is it's like fifth or six on the list, right,

1391
01:21:38,560 --> 01:21:41,680
Speaker 1: you know, And that's and it's like it is a

1392
01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:44,200
Speaker 1: prodding issue. It's an issue if you tell the voter about,

1393
01:21:44,240 --> 01:21:45,840
Speaker 1: you educate them about. Yeah, they are going to be

1394
01:21:45,840 --> 01:21:48,240
Speaker 1: pretty they're not going to They're probably going to be

1395
01:21:48,800 --> 01:21:52,640
Speaker 1: willing to come your way, but it is one of

1396
01:21:52,640 --> 01:21:54,280
Speaker 1: those you're trying to get them to agree with you

1397
01:21:54,320 --> 01:21:58,040
Speaker 1: on a problem. And in politics, you know, the party

1398
01:21:58,120 --> 01:21:59,800
Speaker 1: that is able to agree with the voter and what

1399
01:21:59,840 --> 01:22:02,720
Speaker 1: the voter thinks are the problems usually as the advantage.

1400
01:22:03,160 --> 01:22:04,920
Speaker 1: And so that's where I've been a skeptic on this.

1401
01:22:05,640 --> 01:22:11,960
Speaker 1: I say, all that this big, mega rich tech community

1402
01:22:12,000 --> 01:22:14,800
Speaker 1: that is trying to buy up land all over the country,

1403
01:22:16,040 --> 01:22:20,200
Speaker 1: take up the power grid, decide what you and I

1404
01:22:20,280 --> 01:22:22,120
Speaker 1: get to see. You know, we're going to have four

1405
01:22:22,160 --> 01:22:27,120
Speaker 1: families controlling all of media. Right that the consolidation the

1406
01:22:27,200 --> 01:22:31,160
Speaker 1: Robber Baron type mindset that I think, you know, the

1407
01:22:31,200 --> 01:22:36,200
Speaker 1: consolidation of wealth connecting it to the campaign finance issue

1408
01:22:36,840 --> 01:22:37,439
Speaker 1: that I buy.

1409
01:22:39,080 --> 01:22:41,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's a risk, but it's one

1410
01:22:41,560 --> 01:22:45,720
Speaker 2: that I think is well justified given the moment. The

1411
01:22:46,360 --> 01:22:51,920
Speaker 2: anti oligarchy angle is really important to consider now one

1412
01:22:51,920 --> 01:22:55,320
Speaker 2: of my colleagues, Walter sneidel As is staper from few

1413
01:22:55,680 --> 01:23:00,880
Speaker 2: years back showing that economic inequality in the US higher

1414
01:23:00,920 --> 01:23:03,480
Speaker 2: than it was at the end of the Roman Republic

1415
01:23:03,800 --> 01:23:06,320
Speaker 2: or during right before the French Revolution. Right, Like, we're

1416
01:23:06,400 --> 01:23:11,040
Speaker 2: in pretty extreme territories and it's getting worse and worse

1417
01:23:11,040 --> 01:23:14,120
Speaker 2: and worse in terms of what we're seeing. These these

1418
01:23:14,120 --> 01:23:16,920
Speaker 2: are the types of things that are very you know,

1419
01:23:17,840 --> 01:23:20,960
Speaker 2: destabilizing to democracies. And we've known that for a long time.

1420
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:23,839
Speaker 1: Well, the greatest trick the billionaires ever pulled was convincing

1421
01:23:23,840 --> 01:23:25,519
Speaker 1: the working class that they were on their side.

1422
01:23:26,040 --> 01:23:30,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, but even and like there's this Ken Martin on

1423
01:23:30,800 --> 01:23:34,720
Speaker 2: the chair of the the DNC like that a few

1424
01:23:34,720 --> 01:23:37,320
Speaker 2: months back, like, look, there are good billionaires and bad billionaires,

1425
01:23:37,360 --> 01:23:39,760
Speaker 2: and we're going to continue raising money from the good billionaires.

1426
01:23:40,320 --> 01:23:43,559
Speaker 2: I don't actually disagree with the claimant there are good

1427
01:23:43,560 --> 01:23:46,920
Speaker 2: billionaires out there, but it just comes off as so

1428
01:23:47,240 --> 01:23:47,920
Speaker 2: self serving.

1429
01:23:48,400 --> 01:23:51,480
Speaker 1: And remember what who he thinks is a good billionaire.

1430
01:23:51,920 --> 01:23:55,120
Speaker 1: Half the country might think they're not that good, or

1431
01:23:55,280 --> 01:23:57,639
Speaker 1: they're the son or daughter of somebody that made money

1432
01:23:57,760 --> 01:24:00,600
Speaker 1: the wrong way? Like it is, is it going to

1433
01:24:00,600 --> 01:24:02,600
Speaker 1: be as clean as you think it is, Ken Martin.

1434
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:05,800
Speaker 2: And also the like. We just have to go back

1435
01:24:05,840 --> 01:24:07,839
Speaker 2: to the twenty twenty four election, and if you remember

1436
01:24:07,880 --> 01:24:13,080
Speaker 2: Mark Cuban, who was stumping for Kamala Harris, and at

1437
01:24:13,080 --> 01:24:16,800
Speaker 2: one point the Harris campaign had come out pretty forcefully

1438
01:24:16,840 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 2: with a we're going to tax unrealized games on fortunes

1439
01:24:21,080 --> 01:24:24,639
Speaker 2: over one hundred million dollars, so affecting a tiny time

1440
01:24:24,640 --> 01:24:27,439
Speaker 2: insights of the population. Very few people have that type

1441
01:24:27,439 --> 01:24:32,040
Speaker 2: of money, and it was a pretty populist measure. It

1442
01:24:32,080 --> 01:24:34,680
Speaker 2: had come out of the Biden campaign and it was

1443
01:24:34,720 --> 01:24:39,160
Speaker 2: probably the strongest economic populist message that they had. Mark

1444
01:24:39,200 --> 01:24:43,040
Speaker 2: Cuban went off script that it would destroy the economy

1445
01:24:43,760 --> 01:24:47,080
Speaker 2: and like at one of the stub speeches instead that

1446
01:24:47,240 --> 01:24:50,559
Speaker 2: if Harris had been elected and gone through with it,

1447
01:24:50,680 --> 01:24:53,400
Speaker 2: he would can pain against her next time. Right. This

1448
01:24:53,600 --> 01:24:57,439
Speaker 2: is back to James Carville's point that if you're really

1449
01:24:57,520 --> 01:24:59,960
Speaker 2: chasing this money, their interests are just not a lot

1450
01:25:00,360 --> 01:25:03,479
Speaker 2: with what a party like the Democrats probably need to

1451
01:25:03,479 --> 01:25:06,479
Speaker 2: do to regain power, which is not to cater to

1452
01:25:06,520 --> 01:25:09,479
Speaker 2: those who already have power, but to cater to a

1453
01:25:09,560 --> 01:25:14,920
Speaker 2: working class. That these things is completely rigged against them.

1454
01:25:14,600 --> 01:25:18,160
Speaker 1: You know, in our closing a few minutes here, because

1455
01:25:18,280 --> 01:25:21,640
Speaker 1: we've gone almost forty five on this topic, proof that

1456
01:25:21,680 --> 01:25:25,320
Speaker 1: you can you can go along on campaign finance issues.

1457
01:25:26,400 --> 01:25:31,760
Speaker 1: What you've been studying this for a long time, you've said,

1458
01:25:31,800 --> 01:25:36,240
Speaker 1: You've said, were there other forks in the road that

1459
01:25:36,560 --> 01:25:38,759
Speaker 1: if we'd not taken then we'd be in a better spot,

1460
01:25:38,960 --> 01:25:42,280
Speaker 1: at least on the campaign finance was I look at

1461
01:25:42,360 --> 01:25:45,840
Speaker 1: McCain fine Gold and think it was a h The

1462
01:25:45,920 --> 01:25:49,640
Speaker 1: unintended consequences made it bad legislation, even though it was

1463
01:25:50,600 --> 01:25:56,040
Speaker 1: it was attempting to do good. Let's say. Yeah, so.

1464
01:25:57,840 --> 01:26:01,120
Speaker 2: I tend to agree that it didn't achieve all its goals.

1465
01:26:01,160 --> 01:26:03,479
Speaker 2: Part of that it was sort of decapped by what

1466
01:26:03,560 --> 01:26:05,559
Speaker 2: this is pretty core did in response.

1467
01:26:05,640 --> 01:26:08,360
Speaker 1: Sure, we did get it for about ten years, and

1468
01:26:08,960 --> 01:26:10,960
Speaker 1: I would argue it gutted the parties in a way

1469
01:26:10,960 --> 01:26:13,479
Speaker 1: that I don't think we all saw it coming, and

1470
01:26:13,520 --> 01:26:16,880
Speaker 1: it moved the money outside of the parties harder for

1471
01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:18,120
Speaker 1: people like you and I to track.

1472
01:26:18,680 --> 01:26:21,000
Speaker 2: That's my because this is well, yeah, there's also something

1473
01:26:21,000 --> 01:26:23,679
Speaker 2: Many political scientists say that the weakening of the parties

1474
01:26:23,720 --> 01:26:26,679
Speaker 2: as a result in McCain fine Gold was a negative

1475
01:26:26,680 --> 01:26:30,280
Speaker 2: consequence that was not expected. I tend to agree with

1476
01:26:30,320 --> 01:26:33,960
Speaker 2: that that stronger parties tend to be a little more

1477
01:26:34,760 --> 01:26:37,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, protective of their brands, and I think

1478
01:26:37,200 --> 01:26:39,760
Speaker 2: we've saw that sort of fall off. The other thing

1479
01:26:39,800 --> 01:26:42,400
Speaker 2: I just want to bring up is, you know, campaign finances.

1480
01:26:42,520 --> 01:26:44,519
Speaker 2: We think of it as this like a US thing,

1481
01:26:44,560 --> 01:26:48,400
Speaker 2: but the US is very like perceptional on how we

1482
01:26:48,720 --> 01:26:52,840
Speaker 2: operate campaign fundraising, and compared to the democracies, it's just

1483
01:26:52,960 --> 01:26:58,240
Speaker 2: not the same thing in Europe or even like even Japan,

1484
01:26:58,520 --> 01:27:01,160
Speaker 2: even in South Korea, where it's a big problem, they

1485
01:27:01,160 --> 01:27:05,040
Speaker 2: have much much stricter regulations on it that make it

1486
01:27:05,080 --> 01:27:07,479
Speaker 2: look nothing like the US. And so I guess my

1487
01:27:07,600 --> 01:27:11,000
Speaker 2: general point is, yes, there were like it's hard to

1488
01:27:11,000 --> 01:27:13,519
Speaker 2: see where the missteps were. Is just sort of mad

1489
01:27:13,600 --> 01:27:17,479
Speaker 2: starting point. The institutionally was always going to be very

1490
01:27:17,479 --> 01:27:21,479
Speaker 2: difficult to fix, even for all meaning reformers because of

1491
01:27:21,520 --> 01:27:24,360
Speaker 2: the hurdles there. But the truth is the way that

1492
01:27:24,400 --> 01:27:26,800
Speaker 2: we have approached campaign finance, this notion that it like

1493
01:27:27,040 --> 01:27:29,880
Speaker 2: money is speech that has nothing to do with how

1494
01:27:30,320 --> 01:27:35,200
Speaker 2: democracy operates worldwide, and I think having that perspective or

1495
01:27:35,320 --> 01:27:39,000
Speaker 2: moving forward should be helpful for when we do have

1496
01:27:39,040 --> 01:27:43,759
Speaker 2: a moment to engage in actual institutional reform, which seems

1497
01:27:43,800 --> 01:27:46,439
Speaker 2: like it. ABA, we will be coming around the corner

1498
01:27:46,479 --> 01:27:49,240
Speaker 2: because it's hard to say. Our institutions are so unstable

1499
01:27:49,360 --> 01:27:49,800
Speaker 2: right now.

1500
01:27:50,200 --> 01:27:53,000
Speaker 1: So in the two thousand election, both presidential nominees took

1501
01:27:53,080 --> 01:27:57,280
Speaker 1: the took the federal matching funds, which meant they each

1502
01:27:57,320 --> 01:28:00,679
Speaker 1: agreed to only spend about sixty five million dollars total

1503
01:28:00,680 --> 01:28:06,400
Speaker 1: in their general election campaign. Twelve years later, Barack Obama

1504
01:28:06,439 --> 01:28:10,599
Speaker 1: and Mitt Romney each spend a billion dollars. It's one

1505
01:28:10,640 --> 01:28:13,800
Speaker 1: of the fast So if we hit the billion dollar

1506
01:28:13,840 --> 01:28:18,240
Speaker 1: per campaign mark in twenty twelve, we just hit the

1507
01:28:18,280 --> 01:28:20,280
Speaker 1: two billion. I mean we're going to have a five

1508
01:28:21,240 --> 01:28:23,360
Speaker 1: I assume the twenty twenty eight to twenty thirty two

1509
01:28:23,360 --> 01:28:28,240
Speaker 1: we're looking at a five billion dollar per party presidential election.

1510
01:28:29,320 --> 01:28:33,200
Speaker 2: Oh, we exceeded that in twenty twenty. The amount raised

1511
01:28:33,280 --> 01:28:36,200
Speaker 2: the federal leven twenty twenty exceeded for both presidents and

1512
01:28:37,120 --> 01:28:38,839
Speaker 2: congressional exceeded twenty billion.

1513
01:28:39,080 --> 01:28:40,880
Speaker 1: No, right, I knew that, But I'm just talking about

1514
01:28:40,920 --> 01:28:44,439
Speaker 1: just for the presidency, right, Oh, yeah, that's that's very viable.

1515
01:28:45,520 --> 01:28:47,720
Speaker 2: And then I have to think, so what is like

1516
01:28:47,840 --> 01:28:50,680
Speaker 2: advertising cannot be the most efficient way to spend that

1517
01:28:50,960 --> 01:28:55,040
Speaker 2: at this point. The thirtieth AD you see in you

1518
01:28:55,080 --> 01:28:57,360
Speaker 2: see in Pennsylvan, Well, the joke is just right.

1519
01:28:57,640 --> 01:28:59,920
Speaker 1: Just write a check to the voter that you need.

1520
01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:02,439
Speaker 1: I mean, at this point right where you're fighting over

1521
01:29:02,479 --> 01:29:06,840
Speaker 1: the last forty thousand swing voters in Michigan, you know,

1522
01:29:06,920 --> 01:29:09,040
Speaker 1: buy them a new buy them a new fishing vote.

1523
01:29:09,160 --> 01:29:11,760
Speaker 1: I mean, my goodness, I mean, I'm being facetious, but

1524
01:29:12,040 --> 01:29:16,920
Speaker 1: where it there is an inefficiency about this right where

1525
01:29:16,960 --> 01:29:20,719
Speaker 1: we have fewer swing voters than ever and more money

1526
01:29:21,280 --> 01:29:22,679
Speaker 1: per swing voter to spend.

1527
01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:26,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the alternative is more of it spent

1528
01:29:26,680 --> 01:29:29,920
Speaker 2: on mobilization. So that's where we see variation in elections.

1529
01:29:29,840 --> 01:29:32,920
Speaker 2: As these turn out differentials and democratically like more motivate

1530
01:29:33,000 --> 01:29:35,040
Speaker 2: and they turn out to high rates and Republicans. That

1531
01:29:35,520 --> 01:29:37,960
Speaker 2: swamps any sort of who's winning the swing voters, and

1532
01:29:37,960 --> 01:29:41,360
Speaker 2: in recent elections there's not It's not an easy thing

1533
01:29:41,439 --> 01:29:43,880
Speaker 2: to do. So it's not clear that spending money on

1534
01:29:43,920 --> 01:29:48,000
Speaker 2: that type of mobilization will yield the types of returns.

1535
01:29:48,040 --> 01:29:48,640
Speaker 1: But I don't know.

1536
01:29:48,720 --> 01:29:51,880
Speaker 2: I look at the New York City election, which is

1537
01:29:51,880 --> 01:29:56,320
Speaker 2: not representative of the country. But the youth turnout that

1538
01:29:56,439 --> 01:30:00,559
Speaker 2: Mandami saw was off the chart. I'd never se anything

1539
01:30:00,600 --> 01:30:03,320
Speaker 2: like it in terms of like young people are turning

1540
01:30:03,320 --> 01:30:04,960
Speaker 2: out at nearly the same rates as the old people

1541
01:30:05,240 --> 01:30:07,760
Speaker 2: in the unit in a US election. It's just not

1542
01:30:07,880 --> 01:30:11,439
Speaker 2: something you see. And so I you know, and his

1543
01:30:11,880 --> 01:30:14,280
Speaker 2: schtity of using money is like he raised up to

1544
01:30:14,320 --> 01:30:15,960
Speaker 2: the limit and said, stop sending me money. I don't

1545
01:30:16,000 --> 01:30:19,280
Speaker 2: need it anymore, but I need volunteers. So maybe there's

1546
01:30:19,320 --> 01:30:23,280
Speaker 2: a different model that is less reliant on what you

1547
01:30:23,320 --> 01:30:26,679
Speaker 2: can spend money to do and more reliant on traditional

1548
01:30:26,720 --> 01:30:29,280
Speaker 2: mobilizing and saying like I don't need your money, I

1549
01:30:29,360 --> 01:30:30,719
Speaker 2: need your help, all right.

1550
01:30:30,640 --> 01:30:32,320
Speaker 1: But let me get you. Let me get a pep

1551
01:30:32,360 --> 01:30:34,680
Speaker 1: peeve of mine that's into the state. You teach it.

1552
01:30:35,400 --> 01:30:41,360
Speaker 1: The California referendum process feels like a system that only

1553
01:30:41,560 --> 01:30:45,439
Speaker 1: gives political consultants a reason to live in the state

1554
01:30:45,439 --> 01:30:50,639
Speaker 1: of California. That the amount of money that two entities

1555
01:30:50,840 --> 01:30:53,920
Speaker 1: spend against each other. I mean, the fight over mobile

1556
01:30:53,920 --> 01:30:56,400
Speaker 1: sports gambling is probably the best example where you had

1557
01:30:57,080 --> 01:31:00,480
Speaker 1: each side was you know, there there was no good side.

1558
01:31:00,560 --> 01:31:03,000
Speaker 1: It was we want to be the monopoly. No, we

1559
01:31:03,040 --> 01:31:05,400
Speaker 1: want to be the monopoly, and we're going to just

1560
01:31:05,600 --> 01:31:08,280
Speaker 1: we're going to make you, the voter, decide which side

1561
01:31:08,760 --> 01:31:11,799
Speaker 1: is least evil to be your monopoly in sports gambling.

1562
01:31:14,160 --> 01:31:17,160
Speaker 1: You're also going to see probably half a billion dollars

1563
01:31:17,240 --> 01:31:18,680
Speaker 1: just on this redistricting initiative.

1564
01:31:20,520 --> 01:31:25,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is, you know, so in some ways it's

1565
01:31:25,439 --> 01:31:30,080
Speaker 2: more democratic because it is broken away from sort of

1566
01:31:30,200 --> 01:31:32,800
Speaker 2: the type of quidlock you can see in legislative institutions.

1567
01:31:33,000 --> 01:31:35,320
Speaker 1: No, I mean it's the one the one differ. Yeah,

1568
01:31:35,360 --> 01:31:37,840
Speaker 1: the one thing I say that you can defend that

1569
01:31:37,880 --> 01:31:40,120
Speaker 1: I'll defend. At least they're going to the voters with

1570
01:31:40,200 --> 01:31:44,000
Speaker 1: this disenfranchising idea. But at least they're asking for the

1571
01:31:44,080 --> 01:31:46,639
Speaker 1: voters to approve disenfranchisement. But there we go ahead.

1572
01:31:46,640 --> 01:31:50,960
Speaker 2: But if I could, but I completely share your uh

1573
01:31:51,080 --> 01:31:53,439
Speaker 2: right with the way that it often operates. Often it's

1574
01:31:53,479 --> 01:31:56,839
Speaker 2: just two special interests trying to get upper hand. It's

1575
01:31:57,120 --> 01:32:00,200
Speaker 2: and there should I wish there was more editing of

1576
01:32:00,200 --> 01:32:03,360
Speaker 2: that process and that we had an institution set up

1577
01:32:03,400 --> 01:32:05,439
Speaker 2: so that that just wasn't you know, we actually asked

1578
01:32:05,520 --> 01:32:07,760
Speaker 2: questions that were of relevance to the public. I was

1579
01:32:07,840 --> 01:32:12,400
Speaker 2: voting on a ballot measure about what like like kidney

1580
01:32:12,479 --> 01:32:16,640
Speaker 2: dialysis like regulations. So I have no blue about.

1581
01:32:16,439 --> 01:32:18,400
Speaker 1: Did you wonder, like, why the hell is this even

1582
01:32:18,479 --> 01:32:21,280
Speaker 1: on the ballot for people, for lay people to decide

1583
01:32:21,479 --> 01:32:23,439
Speaker 1: dialysis regulation? Right?

1584
01:32:23,920 --> 01:32:25,840
Speaker 2: Well I knew why because they didn't get what they

1585
01:32:25,840 --> 01:32:28,879
Speaker 2: wanted out of the legislature, so they went to a consultant.

1586
01:32:28,880 --> 01:32:30,400
Speaker 2: They figured out how to get it on the ballot.

1587
01:32:31,040 --> 01:32:33,840
Speaker 2: So yes, I mean I think there's there's a lot

1588
01:32:33,880 --> 01:32:37,680
Speaker 2: of craft that goes on in that process. You know,

1589
01:32:37,760 --> 01:32:41,200
Speaker 2: it's and it's not necessary. Right, So again, like you,

1590
01:32:41,400 --> 01:32:44,040
Speaker 2: as someone who's more of a reformer, I would absolutely

1591
01:32:44,600 --> 01:32:47,519
Speaker 2: put much more limitations on the types of things that

1592
01:32:47,520 --> 01:32:48,719
Speaker 2: should appear on ballots.

1593
01:32:48,920 --> 01:32:53,920
Speaker 1: Well, Adam, you're why your analysis and investigation and what's

1594
01:32:53,920 --> 01:32:58,639
Speaker 1: your your subject is called on data democracy? Is that right? Yeah?

1595
01:32:58,680 --> 01:33:01,920
Speaker 1: I highly recommend it. Check it out. It's it's uh,

1596
01:33:02,720 --> 01:33:05,720
Speaker 1: it's methodical in all the right ways. And this is

1597
01:33:05,760 --> 01:33:10,479
Speaker 1: sort of this is independent journalism at its best. Because

1598
01:33:10,479 --> 01:33:13,559
Speaker 1: you're not it. I will tell you I tried to

1599
01:33:13,600 --> 01:33:16,240
Speaker 1: do an audit. I was obsessed. After twenty twelve, I

1600
01:33:16,240 --> 01:33:19,240
Speaker 1: tried to get NBC and partner with another news organization

1601
01:33:19,520 --> 01:33:22,240
Speaker 1: because we always worry. We always worry about where money

1602
01:33:22,240 --> 01:33:24,800
Speaker 1: comes from. Well we never actually do what you did,

1603
01:33:24,840 --> 01:33:27,559
Speaker 1: which where does this money go? And I thought a

1604
01:33:27,600 --> 01:33:29,640
Speaker 1: billion dollars. Look, I know some of it's going to

1605
01:33:29,680 --> 01:33:34,000
Speaker 1: the TV stations, but not all of it. Right, who's

1606
01:33:34,080 --> 01:33:37,320
Speaker 1: making you know, you know, besides you know Verizon cell

1607
01:33:37,600 --> 01:33:41,559
Speaker 1: cell phones and att cell phones. Who's making so much

1608
01:33:41,600 --> 01:33:46,439
Speaker 1: money off of the industry that is politics? But you know,

1609
01:33:46,520 --> 01:33:49,559
Speaker 1: it's it's a it's a tough thing to get people

1610
01:33:49,600 --> 01:33:53,960
Speaker 1: excited about and and it and yet it's you know,

1611
01:33:54,960 --> 01:33:57,880
Speaker 1: it's arguably what's weakening the democracy more than anything else

1612
01:33:57,920 --> 01:34:00,639
Speaker 1: we're dealing with. Yah.

1613
01:34:01,439 --> 01:34:03,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, thank you and I agree, and thanks for

1614
01:34:03,800 --> 01:34:07,400
Speaker 2: having me on. I think it's to man, great conversation.

1615
01:34:07,680 --> 01:34:08,360
Speaker 2: You really need to.

1616
01:34:08,360 --> 01:34:11,800
Speaker 1: Get it when you when people take your class, what

1617
01:34:11,920 --> 01:34:14,960
Speaker 1: are they at Stanford? I'm just curious, what what what

1618
01:34:15,000 --> 01:34:18,920
Speaker 1: do you spa What are your specific areas of political

1619
01:34:18,920 --> 01:34:19,759
Speaker 1: science that you teach.

1620
01:34:20,640 --> 01:34:22,960
Speaker 2: I teach intro to American politics.

1621
01:34:23,160 --> 01:34:26,599
Speaker 1: The big big anybody that all the athletes, everybody gets into.

1622
01:34:26,479 --> 01:34:30,360
Speaker 2: That class, right, that was we titled in defense of Democracy.

1623
01:34:30,439 --> 01:34:33,640
Speaker 2: So I teach that with my probably Kim Jefferson. I

1624
01:34:33,640 --> 01:34:36,720
Speaker 2: teach Americans book constitutions, and I teach machine learning and

1625
01:34:36,760 --> 01:34:41,280
Speaker 2: politics so institution and data big person.

1626
01:34:41,479 --> 01:34:44,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and at a place like Stanford that's actually U

1627
01:34:46,400 --> 01:34:50,200
Speaker 1: that's probably next level potentially the opportunity to be next

1628
01:34:50,280 --> 01:34:53,880
Speaker 1: level stuff and understanding that that area, because I do

1629
01:34:54,000 --> 01:34:58,360
Speaker 1: think I do think a lot of politicians get taken

1630
01:34:58,479 --> 01:35:01,639
Speaker 1: by people coming in from the tech world saying, oh,

1631
01:35:01,640 --> 01:35:03,760
Speaker 1: I can do all of this, and they sort of

1632
01:35:03,880 --> 01:35:06,800
Speaker 1: like the way a mechanic can con somebody who doesn't

1633
01:35:06,800 --> 01:35:09,160
Speaker 1: know anything about cars, Oh, you need a new Johnson

1634
01:35:09,240 --> 01:35:12,360
Speaker 1: rod that you see sometimes the tech community. So it's

1635
01:35:12,479 --> 01:35:14,559
Speaker 1: good to see political people getting a little bit of

1636
01:35:15,400 --> 01:35:18,840
Speaker 1: tech education because I do think sometimes those people take

1637
01:35:18,880 --> 01:35:23,680
Speaker 1: advantage of the lack of knowledge that say it Chuck

1638
01:35:23,720 --> 01:35:25,639
Speaker 1: Schumer and his chief of staff have for this stuff.

1639
01:35:28,040 --> 01:35:32,240
Speaker 2: Wow, absolutely, And I do. And that is sort of

1640
01:35:32,280 --> 01:35:35,040
Speaker 2: one of the public services I'm trying to provide, is,

1641
01:35:35,680 --> 01:35:38,599
Speaker 2: you know, bring data in empirical evidence in ways more

1642
01:35:39,080 --> 01:35:43,360
Speaker 2: accessible so that people who are not just decision makers

1643
01:35:43,400 --> 01:35:46,080
Speaker 2: but the public and sort of see through some of

1644
01:35:46,080 --> 01:35:47,920
Speaker 2: the things that they sort of feel are wrong but

1645
01:35:48,600 --> 01:35:50,120
Speaker 2: don't really have to have a As to the point too.

1646
01:35:50,680 --> 01:35:52,760
Speaker 1: Well, if the DNC is trying to turn the page

1647
01:35:52,760 --> 01:35:58,840
Speaker 1: and rebrand. Embracing an investigation like this would probably be

1648
01:35:58,840 --> 01:36:00,680
Speaker 1: a step in the right direction. I just don't know

1649
01:36:00,720 --> 01:36:03,360
Speaker 1: if the leader. I don't know if the current leaders

1650
01:36:03,400 --> 01:36:05,320
Speaker 1: that the party has right now are ready for that

1651
01:36:05,400 --> 01:36:07,200
Speaker 1: kind of reform. I don't see evidence of it, do.

1652
01:36:07,200 --> 01:36:12,439
Speaker 2: You No, I'm quite so. Part of my analysis is

1653
01:36:12,439 --> 01:36:14,600
Speaker 2: I've looked at the leadership and they tend to it.

1654
01:36:14,640 --> 01:36:17,759
Speaker 2: So Keing Jefferies about eighty percent of his small donors,

1655
01:36:18,800 --> 01:36:21,160
Speaker 2: So he's raised three million dollars from small donors the

1656
01:36:21,200 --> 01:36:24,280
Speaker 2: selection cycle. Eighty percent of those donors have also given

1657
01:36:24,320 --> 01:36:27,160
Speaker 2: to these fan packs. Then he uses many of the

1658
01:36:27,200 --> 01:36:30,880
Speaker 2: same tactics, and you can look at his Facebook ads

1659
01:36:30,880 --> 01:36:33,519
Speaker 2: and see who he's targeting, and his consultants are targeting

1660
01:36:33,560 --> 01:36:37,080
Speaker 2: people who are sixty five plus almost exclusively. And so

1661
01:36:37,479 --> 01:36:40,800
Speaker 2: I don't see that being a likely scenario. But you know,

1662
01:36:41,600 --> 01:36:43,839
Speaker 2: I tell people, this is the year of the snake,

1663
01:36:43,880 --> 01:36:46,840
Speaker 2: is the year where it get like in Chinese porterscope.

1664
01:36:47,479 --> 01:36:50,320
Speaker 2: You know this that the skin sheds and there's renewal.

1665
01:36:50,439 --> 01:36:52,960
Speaker 2: And the Democratic Party looks like it's going under a renewal,

1666
01:36:53,000 --> 01:36:55,679
Speaker 2: and I think I think there's a lot of energy

1667
01:36:55,760 --> 01:36:57,000
Speaker 2: in sort of reform.

1668
01:36:57,160 --> 01:36:59,200
Speaker 1: So I'm who knew that the year of this stake

1669
01:36:59,240 --> 01:37:02,720
Speaker 1: would bring about newal rather than something more not various.

1670
01:37:05,080 --> 01:37:07,920
Speaker 1: I like that the ear of the snake. We're shedding

1671
01:37:07,960 --> 01:37:12,880
Speaker 1: our skin, we're shedding our brand. Anyway, Adam, this is terrific.

1672
01:37:12,920 --> 01:37:13,759
Speaker 1: Appreciate your time.

1673
01:37:14,560 --> 01:37:15,519
Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much.

1674
01:37:28,000 --> 01:37:30,400
Speaker 1: All right. I don't know about you, but it's like

1675
01:37:30,479 --> 01:37:33,120
Speaker 1: this entire I mean, that was just outrage. And I

1676
01:37:33,160 --> 01:37:36,200
Speaker 1: think I shared the story about the source of mind

1677
01:37:36,760 --> 01:37:38,920
Speaker 1: sort of what drove them away from leaving the r

1678
01:37:38,960 --> 01:37:42,120
Speaker 1: n C when they got got that letter that this

1679
01:37:42,760 --> 01:37:45,519
Speaker 1: panicked woman said, my social Security check doesn't come for

1680
01:37:45,560 --> 01:37:47,920
Speaker 1: another week? Is it okay? If I wait? You know,

1681
01:37:50,040 --> 01:37:54,080
Speaker 1: and if you think about it, how these the way

1682
01:37:54,120 --> 01:37:57,840
Speaker 1: fundra the way this online fundraising world works, which again

1683
01:37:58,320 --> 01:38:00,640
Speaker 1: I think, as Adam has put it, feels like glorified

1684
01:38:00,840 --> 01:38:05,000
Speaker 1: you know, targeting of just you know, abusing the elderly here.

1685
01:38:06,880 --> 01:38:10,160
Speaker 1: But in some ways it's it's it's the incentive structure

1686
01:38:10,200 --> 01:38:13,439
Speaker 1: of our information ecosystem in general. Right, You've got to

1687
01:38:13,479 --> 01:38:18,080
Speaker 1: have these sort of blaring, sort of urgent, urgent headlines

1688
01:38:18,160 --> 01:38:24,040
Speaker 1: to grab the attention of readers. That sort of you know,

1689
01:38:24,640 --> 01:38:27,080
Speaker 1: makes everything seem as if it's a it's you know,

1690
01:38:27,280 --> 01:38:32,000
Speaker 1: you know, we started with cable news making everything breaking news, right,

1691
01:38:32,120 --> 01:38:36,599
Speaker 1: and eventually if everything's breaking news, then what's just news? Right?

1692
01:38:36,760 --> 01:38:39,960
Speaker 1: You know, what's just it? And it's in some ways

1693
01:38:40,439 --> 01:38:43,080
Speaker 1: this is sort of what we've done to political fundraising,

1694
01:38:43,600 --> 01:38:49,439
Speaker 1: what we've done to news consumption. How the algorithms prioritize

1695
01:38:49,479 --> 01:38:53,120
Speaker 1: again the incentives, right, it prioritizes this, and it really

1696
01:38:53,160 --> 01:38:57,200
Speaker 1: has warped our brains. Ten years of this kind of

1697
01:38:57,200 --> 01:39:00,920
Speaker 1: of this kind of nonsense is is I think, you know,

1698
01:39:00,960 --> 01:39:03,280
Speaker 1: helps explain why we're in the why we're in the

1699
01:39:03,400 --> 01:39:07,519
Speaker 1: uncomfortable position we're in when it comes to our our

1700
01:39:07,520 --> 01:39:11,320
Speaker 1: informationion ecosystem. All right, it is Wednesday. It's my top five,

1701
01:39:11,720 --> 01:39:19,720
Speaker 1: top top five, top topest top. Last week was my

1702
01:39:19,800 --> 01:39:22,400
Speaker 1: top five Senate seats for the month of most likely

1703
01:39:22,479 --> 01:39:24,280
Speaker 1: to flip. Well, today I'm going to do my top

1704
01:39:24,320 --> 01:39:28,000
Speaker 1: five governor seats most likely to flip between now and

1705
01:39:28,080 --> 01:39:30,120
Speaker 1: November of twenty twenty six. Why do I say between

1706
01:39:30,120 --> 01:39:31,960
Speaker 1: now and November of twenty twenty six, because we have

1707
01:39:32,160 --> 01:39:35,360
Speaker 1: two governor's races coming up this November. One in Virginia

1708
01:39:35,360 --> 01:39:36,920
Speaker 1: and one in New Jersey, and well one of them

1709
01:39:36,960 --> 01:39:39,680
Speaker 1: is in my top five list. And what it is,

1710
01:39:39,720 --> 01:39:43,040
Speaker 1: it's most likely to change parties. Right, This is why

1711
01:39:43,120 --> 01:39:45,360
Speaker 1: it's doesn't mean I'm saying it's it's going to be

1712
01:39:45,400 --> 01:39:48,000
Speaker 1: the closest race, the most top but it's most likely.

1713
01:39:48,479 --> 01:39:51,280
Speaker 1: So the number one seat most likely to change parties, well,

1714
01:39:51,320 --> 01:39:53,880
Speaker 1: right now, it's Virginia. Right, it's a Republican governor in

1715
01:39:53,920 --> 01:39:57,840
Speaker 1: Glenn Youngkin, Abigail Spamberger's got anywhere from an eight to

1716
01:39:57,880 --> 01:40:00,439
Speaker 1: twelve point lead depending on the polls. We haven't had

1717
01:40:00,479 --> 01:40:04,400
Speaker 1: any good polling since the controversy involving the ag nominee

1718
01:40:04,640 --> 01:40:09,320
Speaker 1: and those and those uh horrific texts that were made public.

1719
01:40:10,520 --> 01:40:13,479
Speaker 1: I would imagine it only has a small if any.

1720
01:40:14,040 --> 01:40:17,320
Speaker 1: I do feel like it is not. We'll see, all right,

1721
01:40:17,439 --> 01:40:20,680
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it does if they they

1722
01:40:20,720 --> 01:40:23,160
Speaker 1: sort of continue this dance and allow it to sort

1723
01:40:23,160 --> 01:40:25,000
Speaker 1: of dominate the next three or four weeks. It could

1724
01:40:25,040 --> 01:40:27,120
Speaker 1: cost for a couple of points, but I don't think

1725
01:40:27,160 --> 01:40:29,440
Speaker 1: it costs her a race, so I think she's definitely

1726
01:40:29,920 --> 01:40:34,320
Speaker 1: number one. It's the number one most likely to flip

1727
01:40:34,479 --> 01:40:38,479
Speaker 1: to change parties. Again, that's how my top five works.

1728
01:40:38,600 --> 01:40:40,800
Speaker 1: So the next four and I will tell you look,

1729
01:40:41,000 --> 01:40:46,040
Speaker 1: New Jersey is going to be close. I sort of

1730
01:40:46,040 --> 01:40:51,080
Speaker 1: refer to New Jersey. It's sort of like the Miami

1731
01:40:51,080 --> 01:40:54,479
Speaker 1: Florida State game. I knew that was going to get

1732
01:40:54,479 --> 01:40:56,120
Speaker 1: close at the end no matter what happened, because the

1733
01:40:56,120 --> 01:40:59,679
Speaker 1: Miami Floord State games, they always do if it is

1734
01:40:59,800 --> 01:41:03,320
Speaker 1: it is a rivalry games, so they always both teams

1735
01:41:03,360 --> 01:41:05,640
Speaker 1: have had a history of coming back from keep deficits

1736
01:41:05,960 --> 01:41:09,760
Speaker 1: and making games close at the end. And so I

1737
01:41:09,920 --> 01:41:13,679
Speaker 1: put New Jersey. I put Chittarelli in there as Florida State.

1738
01:41:14,280 --> 01:41:17,000
Speaker 1: There's it's not a remote chance that he wins. There's

1739
01:41:17,000 --> 01:41:20,960
Speaker 1: a pretty good chance. And in fact, if you created

1740
01:41:20,960 --> 01:41:24,960
Speaker 1: a point spread and the point spread were three with

1741
01:41:25,840 --> 01:41:28,200
Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl, you know, basically being a three point favorite,

1742
01:41:28,200 --> 01:41:30,160
Speaker 1: I'd take the underdog. I think this is going to

1743
01:41:30,200 --> 01:41:32,040
Speaker 1: be a one or two point race. I think got

1744
01:41:32,040 --> 01:41:34,519
Speaker 1: election night, we're waiting a little bit. It's not something

1745
01:41:34,520 --> 01:41:36,880
Speaker 1: that gets called right away. We're gonna have to see

1746
01:41:36,880 --> 01:41:40,519
Speaker 1: a lot of data all but various vote counting entities,

1747
01:41:40,880 --> 01:41:42,360
Speaker 1: and we'll do that. So I think it's going to

1748
01:41:42,400 --> 01:41:46,719
Speaker 1: be awfully close on that front, but it's not cracking

1749
01:41:46,800 --> 01:41:52,240
Speaker 1: my top five just yet. And and and but it's

1750
01:41:52,320 --> 01:41:55,479
Speaker 1: right there. You could say it's it's it's six. It's

1751
01:41:55,479 --> 01:41:57,240
Speaker 1: really close. So it's gonna be a lot of competitive

1752
01:41:57,240 --> 01:41:59,680
Speaker 1: governors races, That's really what it means. But I think

1753
01:41:59,680 --> 01:42:03,320
Speaker 1: when you slotted in, you know, and I look at

1754
01:42:03,360 --> 01:42:06,760
Speaker 1: it as sort of where I think the race will be,

1755
01:42:07,560 --> 01:42:10,519
Speaker 1: not necessarily where the race is at, and then when

1756
01:42:10,560 --> 01:42:12,880
Speaker 1: it's slotted in, so I still make sure all the

1757
01:42:12,880 --> 01:42:15,879
Speaker 1: slight favored because I do think the overall political environment

1758
01:42:15,880 --> 01:42:18,679
Speaker 1: favors Democrats right now because of the unpopularity of the president.

1759
01:42:21,400 --> 01:42:24,519
Speaker 1: And I think that's probably the difference between winning and

1760
01:42:24,520 --> 01:42:26,479
Speaker 1: losing in a state like New Jersey right now. But

1761
01:42:26,520 --> 01:42:29,160
Speaker 1: we'll say, certainly going to be closer than Virginia, that's

1762
01:42:29,160 --> 01:42:32,520
Speaker 1: for sure. But number two right there for me is Kansas.

1763
01:42:33,000 --> 01:42:35,439
Speaker 1: Right you have Laura Kelly is not running again. She's

1764
01:42:35,479 --> 01:42:39,800
Speaker 1: term limited. The democratic Democratic governor of Kansas. Kansas is

1765
01:42:39,800 --> 01:42:42,920
Speaker 1: a Here's a couple of rules on governors, Okay. Number one,

1766
01:42:44,120 --> 01:42:46,639
Speaker 1: the hardest thing to do is to deny a sitting

1767
01:42:46,680 --> 01:42:50,879
Speaker 1: governor a second term. It is harder than denying a senator,

1768
01:42:50,880 --> 01:42:53,960
Speaker 1: a second term, House member a second term, a president

1769
01:42:54,000 --> 01:42:58,720
Speaker 1: a second term. The feeding and incumbent governor is very difficult.

1770
01:42:58,840 --> 01:43:01,000
Speaker 1: It's a little bit easier when you trying to when

1771
01:43:01,000 --> 01:43:03,200
Speaker 1: you're trying to if they're running for a third or

1772
01:43:03,200 --> 01:43:06,599
Speaker 1: a fourth term. Some states allow it, some don't. Kansas

1773
01:43:06,640 --> 01:43:08,680
Speaker 1: it is just two and that's it. They have a

1774
01:43:08,720 --> 01:43:12,599
Speaker 1: two term limit there. And Kansas has shown a pattern,

1775
01:43:12,640 --> 01:43:15,559
Speaker 1: I mean literally was you had eight years of Kathleen

1776
01:43:15,600 --> 01:43:18,439
Speaker 1: Sibilius and you had eight years of Republican governor and

1777
01:43:18,439 --> 01:43:21,760
Speaker 1: eight years of Lord Kelly. So there's a bit of

1778
01:43:21,760 --> 01:43:24,400
Speaker 1: a pattern there. So you got to make the Republicans

1779
01:43:24,400 --> 01:43:26,439
Speaker 1: a favor and I think overall is sort of the

1780
01:43:26,439 --> 01:43:29,680
Speaker 1: same way. For you know, Virginia has been sitting in

1781
01:43:29,720 --> 01:43:31,599
Speaker 1: this number one slot. If I had been doing it

1782
01:43:31,640 --> 01:43:33,360
Speaker 1: for the last year, it had been sitting there the

1783
01:43:33,360 --> 01:43:36,720
Speaker 1: whole time. Because again, with an open governor's race, it

1784
01:43:36,800 --> 01:43:39,360
Speaker 1: is open seat races that are most likely to flip

1785
01:43:39,400 --> 01:43:44,880
Speaker 1: party than sitting governors. Okay, defeating and here's a hint,

1786
01:43:44,920 --> 01:43:47,559
Speaker 1: there's not going to be a single race in my

1787
01:43:47,640 --> 01:43:50,439
Speaker 1: top five that features a sitting governor. I'll get to.

1788
01:43:50,640 --> 01:43:55,000
Speaker 1: I think it's the most vulnerable sitting governor in the

1789
01:43:55,040 --> 01:43:57,639
Speaker 1: country after I do my top five list. So number

1790
01:43:57,640 --> 01:44:01,880
Speaker 1: one is Virginia, Number two is Kansas. Number three and

1791
01:44:02,040 --> 01:44:05,800
Speaker 1: four could easily be could easily flip. And since I

1792
01:44:05,920 --> 01:44:07,720
Speaker 1: was just at the Big ten government relations, it means

1793
01:44:07,760 --> 01:44:10,880
Speaker 1: they're both Big ten states, and it actually is this

1794
01:44:11,000 --> 01:44:13,320
Speaker 1: state or this state? Is it this state or is

1795
01:44:13,360 --> 01:44:16,080
Speaker 1: this state? Do you see what I'm doing here? Anyway,

1796
01:44:16,520 --> 01:44:20,200
Speaker 1: it's the hand thing. Michigan Wisconsin. I put Wisconsin number three,

1797
01:44:20,560 --> 01:44:23,839
Speaker 1: Michigan number four. You told me it should be Michigan

1798
01:44:23,920 --> 01:44:27,320
Speaker 1: number three, Wisconsin number four. You know I probably should.

1799
01:44:27,880 --> 01:44:30,240
Speaker 1: You know, I could argue Michigan three because of the

1800
01:44:30,240 --> 01:44:33,280
Speaker 1: three way race, you know, if you know dug In

1801
01:44:33,439 --> 01:44:37,280
Speaker 1: certainly I think I think the path we're a Republican

1802
01:44:37,360 --> 01:44:40,920
Speaker 1: for John James is probably slightly easier in Michigan than Wisconsin.

1803
01:44:41,560 --> 01:44:44,800
Speaker 1: So Michigan, you could say, is three A and Wisconsin

1804
01:44:44,800 --> 01:44:47,760
Speaker 1: would be just below that. So as I'm talking this out,

1805
01:44:47,800 --> 01:44:52,240
Speaker 1: I'm realizing it's Michigan that's in the third slot. But

1806
01:44:52,360 --> 01:44:54,519
Speaker 1: it's because of that three way race with the independent

1807
01:44:54,560 --> 01:44:58,360
Speaker 1: dug In. It's it's the math. It may simply become

1808
01:44:58,360 --> 01:45:01,680
Speaker 1: a math problem for for Democrats unless Dougan wins right,

1809
01:45:01,880 --> 01:45:06,120
Speaker 1: unless Dougan gets you know, or or he fades hard right.

1810
01:45:06,400 --> 01:45:09,200
Speaker 1: But the problem is if he's down as a five

1811
01:45:09,240 --> 01:45:11,800
Speaker 1: to ten percent candidate, he most likely takes more from

1812
01:45:11,800 --> 01:45:14,400
Speaker 1: the Democrat than the Republicans. So I think you have

1813
01:45:14,439 --> 01:45:18,280
Speaker 1: to put John James uh As slightly ahead and put

1814
01:45:18,280 --> 01:45:22,519
Speaker 1: Michigan three the open seat in Wisconsin. This is gonna

1815
01:45:22,520 --> 01:45:28,320
Speaker 1: be an extraordinarily close race, Wiscott. Let's see how the

1816
01:45:28,320 --> 01:45:31,760
Speaker 1: primary goes, Wiscott. You know, when when Wisconsin goes too

1817
01:45:31,760 --> 01:45:33,320
Speaker 1: far to the right, that's when they struggle to win

1818
01:45:33,360 --> 01:45:39,120
Speaker 1: statewide races. They've had more success with businessmen at times

1819
01:45:39,240 --> 01:45:45,040
Speaker 1: in some of these primaries. We'll see, but I will

1820
01:45:45,040 --> 01:45:47,679
Speaker 1: tell you this, I hope, I hope my man Tommy

1821
01:45:47,720 --> 01:45:50,200
Speaker 1: Thompson gets into this race. Eighty five year old Tommy Thompson,

1822
01:45:50,240 --> 01:45:52,280
Speaker 1: who was a four term governor back in the nineties,

1823
01:45:52,760 --> 01:45:55,000
Speaker 1: indicated he'd like to run again. He ran for Senate

1824
01:45:55,520 --> 01:45:58,680
Speaker 1: a cycle or so ago and got and got trounced

1825
01:45:58,960 --> 01:46:03,000
Speaker 1: by Tammy Baldwin. He doesn't have his fastball, but he's

1826
01:46:03,040 --> 01:46:05,480
Speaker 1: probably more with it than other eighty year old politicians.

1827
01:46:05,479 --> 01:46:08,519
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that, and he certainly would be entertaining

1828
01:46:08,880 --> 01:46:10,880
Speaker 1: UH in the primary and would make it an even

1829
01:46:10,920 --> 01:46:13,880
Speaker 1: more fun race to cover. But overall, let's see how

1830
01:46:13,880 --> 01:46:16,640
Speaker 1: that primary goes, which which really is another reason to

1831
01:46:16,680 --> 01:46:19,080
Speaker 1: keep it in the fore slot. The Lieutenant Governor Tony

1832
01:46:19,120 --> 01:46:23,640
Speaker 1: Evers is running mate is the most likely demonominee, but

1833
01:46:23,680 --> 01:46:26,519
Speaker 1: we'll see. I think that's still early there. And then

1834
01:46:26,520 --> 01:46:33,439
Speaker 1: the fifth slot. Right now, I put Iowa in Rob Sam.

1835
01:46:33,560 --> 01:46:35,720
Speaker 1: This is a he's a he's been in the race

1836
01:46:35,760 --> 01:46:40,800
Speaker 1: a while, He's accumulated a ton of money. The Republican

1837
01:46:41,080 --> 01:46:43,439
Speaker 1: it is going to be a pretty competitive Republican primary.

1838
01:46:43,479 --> 01:46:47,880
Speaker 1: There is no there is no nobody's been really coronated

1839
01:46:48,080 --> 01:46:52,160
Speaker 1: just yet. That could happen. And I think Randy Finstrf,

1840
01:46:52,200 --> 01:46:53,840
Speaker 1: he gets the nomination, is going to be a really

1841
01:46:54,040 --> 01:46:59,280
Speaker 1: really strong Republican nominee. Sam's gonna have a ton of money.

1842
01:46:59,360 --> 01:47:02,080
Speaker 1: He has been proven. He won even in a tough

1843
01:47:02,400 --> 01:47:05,800
Speaker 1: Democratic year. He won re election as state auditor, so

1844
01:47:06,520 --> 01:47:09,400
Speaker 1: his track record's pretty strong. He's been running a very

1845
01:47:09,439 --> 01:47:12,120
Speaker 1: centrist campaign. Remember those of you that have been listening

1846
01:47:12,160 --> 01:47:15,400
Speaker 1: to my podcast from the very beginning, know that Rob

1847
01:47:15,439 --> 01:47:18,439
Speaker 1: Sam was on this race, and he was. He basically

1848
01:47:18,479 --> 01:47:20,320
Speaker 1: said the only reason he's running as a Democrat has

1849
01:47:20,320 --> 01:47:22,800
Speaker 1: said it's too hard to run as an independent. So

1850
01:47:23,200 --> 01:47:25,160
Speaker 1: point is is you could see the type of race

1851
01:47:25,160 --> 01:47:27,680
Speaker 1: he's tried to run. He is not he is not

1852
01:47:27,760 --> 01:47:30,880
Speaker 1: going to want to get tagged as a national Democrat.

1853
01:47:31,120 --> 01:47:33,760
Speaker 1: We'll see, We'll see if he's successful at that. If

1854
01:47:33,760 --> 01:47:37,000
Speaker 1: he is, he's going to be there. Look, there's a

1855
01:47:37,040 --> 01:47:40,200
Speaker 1: lot of other competitive governatorial races this year. I think

1856
01:47:40,200 --> 01:47:44,280
Speaker 1: Ohio is going to be competitive, but I think Ramaswami's

1857
01:47:44,320 --> 01:47:46,559
Speaker 1: going to be the favorite, so the Republicans therefore going

1858
01:47:46,600 --> 01:47:49,639
Speaker 1: to be favorite. I think Tim Walls. I think Georgia,

1859
01:47:49,720 --> 01:47:53,240
Speaker 1: the open zing in Georgia is going to be competitive there,

1860
01:47:53,280 --> 01:47:54,760
Speaker 1: but I think it's got a long way to go

1861
01:47:54,800 --> 01:47:58,920
Speaker 1: before we know which way that wind is blowing. And

1862
01:47:58,960 --> 01:48:00,880
Speaker 1: it's been a long you know, it's been since Roy

1863
01:48:00,920 --> 01:48:03,400
Speaker 1: Barnes want a term as governor in nineteen ninety eight,

1864
01:48:03,400 --> 01:48:05,280
Speaker 1: since Democrats have been able to win a governor's race.

1865
01:48:05,840 --> 01:48:08,479
Speaker 1: I think the most right now vulnerable incumbent in the

1866
01:48:08,479 --> 01:48:14,080
Speaker 1: country is Katie Hobbs for the Democratic side in Arizona

1867
01:48:15,400 --> 01:48:18,759
Speaker 1: and Dave Schweikert, a swing state member of Congress. There's

1868
01:48:18,800 --> 01:48:22,920
Speaker 1: been swing district who's constantly had to deal with very

1869
01:48:22,960 --> 01:48:27,640
Speaker 1: tough congressional races. The he's jumped in up primary that

1870
01:48:27,760 --> 01:48:33,839
Speaker 1: already has two MAGA Trump endorsed candidates in it, Schwikert said, nominee,

1871
01:48:33,880 --> 01:48:37,000
Speaker 1: I think Hobbs is in deep, deep trouble. Her best

1872
01:48:37,080 --> 01:48:39,920
Speaker 1: way past the victory is if one of if it's

1873
01:48:39,960 --> 01:48:43,559
Speaker 1: somebody that's a bit too conservative. That's sort of been

1874
01:48:43,640 --> 01:48:47,920
Speaker 1: the pattern an Arizona politics for some time. Democratic success

1875
01:48:48,280 --> 01:48:51,400
Speaker 1: goes hand in hand with Republicans nominating folks too far

1876
01:48:51,439 --> 01:48:54,639
Speaker 1: from the center. You know, Arizona really is a sort

1877
01:48:54,640 --> 01:48:58,400
Speaker 1: of center right but much more libertarian state, and I

1878
01:48:58,439 --> 01:49:01,320
Speaker 1: think some of that MAGA st off doesn't quite play

1879
01:49:01,360 --> 01:49:04,560
Speaker 1: as well there. There's a large Mormon population in Arizona

1880
01:49:04,560 --> 01:49:09,040
Speaker 1: that doesn't like the low character style of mega politics either.

1881
01:49:09,479 --> 01:49:13,360
Speaker 1: That is also provided an opening for moderate Democrats to

1882
01:49:13,400 --> 01:49:16,840
Speaker 1: win statewide there as well. So, you know, she won

1883
01:49:17,040 --> 01:49:20,479
Speaker 1: very narrowly against the second most unpopular or a second

1884
01:49:20,840 --> 01:49:23,639
Speaker 1: arguably the second most unqualified person to run for governor

1885
01:49:23,840 --> 01:49:30,799
Speaker 1: in Kerry Lake. And so I think I think anybody

1886
01:49:30,880 --> 01:49:33,679
Speaker 1: that's slightly more mainstream than Kerry Lake, you've gotta you've

1887
01:49:33,680 --> 01:49:37,799
Speaker 1: got to give. So she's probably the most vulnerable incumbent.

1888
01:49:39,040 --> 01:49:43,719
Speaker 1: And then on the Republican side, it's it's Joe Lombardo Nevada.

1889
01:49:43,760 --> 01:49:47,439
Speaker 1: It's probably the most vulnerable Democratic Republican incumbent. But again,

1890
01:49:48,600 --> 01:49:50,880
Speaker 1: the hardest thing to do in politics is to deny

1891
01:49:50,880 --> 01:49:54,120
Speaker 1: a governor second term. It just doesn't happen very often.

1892
01:49:54,160 --> 01:49:57,040
Speaker 1: All right, here's my top five for the week. Now,

1893
01:49:57,120 --> 01:49:59,920
Speaker 1: let's do a couple of questions. We'll get you out

1894
01:49:59,920 --> 01:50:05,439
Speaker 1: of He lit the last, Chuck ass Chuck. All right,

1895
01:50:05,520 --> 01:50:07,760
Speaker 1: it's question time. Let's start. We'll start with Aaron w.

1896
01:50:07,960 --> 01:50:10,360
Speaker 1: He says, Hello, Chuck, I'm so sick of seeing money

1897
01:50:10,400 --> 01:50:13,840
Speaker 1: and special interest ruling politicians. I fully believe they will

1898
01:50:13,880 --> 01:50:16,080
Speaker 1: never vote to band stock trading of elected officials or

1899
01:50:16,160 --> 01:50:18,439
Speaker 1: vote to fund their own healthcare out of pocket like

1900
01:50:18,560 --> 01:50:21,519
Speaker 1: normal working people. However, would there ever be a snowballs

1901
01:50:21,560 --> 01:50:24,120
Speaker 1: chance in hell of a constitutional amendment danning stock trading

1902
01:50:24,400 --> 01:50:26,599
Speaker 1: or cutting off perks like top of the line healthcare.

1903
01:50:26,920 --> 01:50:29,840
Speaker 1: Probably not, but one can dream, right, thanks, Aaron W. Well,

1904
01:50:29,840 --> 01:50:33,240
Speaker 1: look here's where I do think. Look I am I

1905
01:50:33,640 --> 01:50:38,840
Speaker 1: really do believe we're going to have some form of

1906
01:50:38,880 --> 01:50:41,600
Speaker 1: a constitutional convention in the next decade or so. I

1907
01:50:41,640 --> 01:50:45,680
Speaker 1: think we're much past too. And again, when you look

1908
01:50:45,720 --> 01:50:49,560
Speaker 1: at other periods of tumults that are similar to the

1909
01:50:49,600 --> 01:50:53,080
Speaker 1: period of political tumult that we're experiencing, it was followed

1910
01:50:53,160 --> 01:50:59,679
Speaker 1: by a robust movement of adding important constitutional amendments. Right

1911
01:51:00,080 --> 01:51:03,639
Speaker 1: if you look, we basically had three periods where we

1912
01:51:03,680 --> 01:51:09,519
Speaker 1: as a country, you know, past quite a few constitutional medments.

1913
01:51:09,520 --> 01:51:12,160
Speaker 1: One was, of course, you know, at the founding, the

1914
01:51:12,200 --> 01:51:14,400
Speaker 1: second was after the Civil War and during the Civil war,

1915
01:51:14,400 --> 01:51:17,000
Speaker 1: and the third was in this period. And then from

1916
01:51:17,040 --> 01:51:19,840
Speaker 1: about you know, nineteen ten through about nineteen thirty five,

1917
01:51:19,880 --> 01:51:22,840
Speaker 1: where we did quite a bit of amending you know,

1918
01:51:23,320 --> 01:51:27,320
Speaker 1: direct election of senators, women's right to vote, they prohibition,

1919
01:51:27,400 --> 01:51:32,559
Speaker 1: and then repealing prohibition, et cetera. So, and I think

1920
01:51:32,640 --> 01:51:36,400
Speaker 1: it turns out that the emolument's clause for the presidency

1921
01:51:36,520 --> 01:51:39,919
Speaker 1: wasn't enough, that we may have to be more direct

1922
01:51:39,960 --> 01:51:47,200
Speaker 1: about elected office and business interests and financial interests. So

1923
01:51:47,479 --> 01:51:49,880
Speaker 1: I am bullish that if we get to that point

1924
01:51:49,920 --> 01:51:52,200
Speaker 1: of a content where there's some agreement about, hey, we

1925
01:51:52,240 --> 01:51:54,160
Speaker 1: need to you know, we need to look at some

1926
01:51:54,479 --> 01:51:58,320
Speaker 1: at some refreshing of our democracy, and we can't let

1927
01:51:58,360 --> 01:52:01,840
Speaker 1: another president do that. In order to perhaps get a

1928
01:52:01,920 --> 01:52:05,920
Speaker 1: broader coalition supportive of a constitutional amendment that it may,

1929
01:52:06,479 --> 01:52:09,280
Speaker 1: I could see it being written in such a way

1930
01:52:09,479 --> 01:52:14,519
Speaker 1: to impact all federal elected office holders, not just the

1931
01:52:14,560 --> 01:52:19,679
Speaker 1: president and the vice president. So whether it's stock trading,

1932
01:52:19,680 --> 01:52:22,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if you'd get to stock trading, but

1933
01:52:22,240 --> 01:52:25,000
Speaker 1: it is certainly going to be an you know, to

1934
01:52:25,000 --> 01:52:30,800
Speaker 1: put some constitutional guardrails in to prevent using office to

1935
01:52:30,880 --> 01:52:36,519
Speaker 1: gain wealth and at least trying to minimize trying to

1936
01:52:36,560 --> 01:52:40,800
Speaker 1: make it harder, trying to erect a real, actual constitutional

1937
01:52:40,800 --> 01:52:44,640
Speaker 1: guardrail rather than a quote unquote norm or ethical guideline

1938
01:52:44,760 --> 01:52:47,800
Speaker 1: or something something like that. And look, part of the

1939
01:52:47,800 --> 01:52:52,559
Speaker 1: reason it's the separation of powers make it hard for

1940
01:52:52,680 --> 01:52:56,639
Speaker 1: the legislative branch to put policies on the executive branch,

1941
01:52:56,720 --> 01:53:00,200
Speaker 1: the elected leaders of that. So just you know, the

1942
01:53:00,240 --> 01:53:03,200
Speaker 1: cleanest way to do this is via constitutional vendment. Our

1943
01:53:03,240 --> 01:53:05,559
Speaker 1: next question comes from Chrispy. It's a check, longtime fan

1944
01:53:05,640 --> 01:53:08,080
Speaker 1: from the Meat Press days and now your podcast. Thank you, Chris,

1945
01:53:08,120 --> 01:53:10,760
Speaker 1: appreciate it. My question comment regarding the shutdown is that

1946
01:53:10,800 --> 01:53:13,439
Speaker 1: it plays right into Trump's plan with the economy. Goverment

1947
01:53:13,439 --> 01:53:16,360
Speaker 1: shutdown means no BLS reports, which will give Trump cover

1948
01:53:16,439 --> 01:53:19,360
Speaker 1: for the increasingly vad economic numbers. You'll blame the Democrats

1949
01:53:19,360 --> 01:53:21,920
Speaker 1: for the bad economic numbers once the shutdown end, because

1950
01:53:21,960 --> 01:53:25,759
Speaker 1: you really think the American people will believe another liear misinformation, Chris,

1951
01:53:25,800 --> 01:53:30,839
Speaker 1: I don't because I think, you know, lived experience always

1952
01:53:30,840 --> 01:53:34,120
Speaker 1: trumps the misinformation. Right. Look, Joe Biden was out there

1953
01:53:34,120 --> 01:53:36,360
Speaker 1: and the Democrats were telling, you know, the economy's fine,

1954
01:53:36,920 --> 01:53:39,920
Speaker 1: and people said, well, that's not what I'm feeling. Right,

1955
01:53:40,040 --> 01:53:43,519
Speaker 1: So if it didn't work for Biden, and perhaps they

1956
01:53:43,520 --> 01:53:46,000
Speaker 1: weren't as good at it as Trump is at times,

1957
01:53:46,400 --> 01:53:47,840
Speaker 1: I just don't think it's going to work for your

1958
01:53:47,840 --> 01:53:52,880
Speaker 1: lived experience is what you're gonna vote on. Okay, you

1959
01:53:52,880 --> 01:53:55,120
Speaker 1: know you're gonna believe me or you lie in eyes

1960
01:53:55,320 --> 01:53:59,280
Speaker 1: right that uh, that expression. But in all seriousness, I

1961
01:53:59,320 --> 01:54:03,200
Speaker 1: do think lived experienced Trump's Trump's anything. Trump will try

1962
01:54:03,200 --> 01:54:07,639
Speaker 1: to spend on us, and so we'll say, look, there's

1963
01:54:07,680 --> 01:54:10,280
Speaker 1: a lot of disagreement. I'm gonna market any comeback pretty soon.

1964
01:54:10,640 --> 01:54:12,559
Speaker 1: There's a lot of disagreement here. I mean, I think

1965
01:54:12,600 --> 01:54:14,880
Speaker 1: this is you know, I do think that we're going

1966
01:54:14,960 --> 01:54:19,880
Speaker 1: to have another sort of messy interpretation of the economy.

1967
01:54:20,520 --> 01:54:23,440
Speaker 1: You know, the stock market can continue to do gangbusters

1968
01:54:23,760 --> 01:54:27,639
Speaker 1: while people feel like this economy sucks. Right, And I've

1969
01:54:27,680 --> 01:54:31,599
Speaker 1: always said that you know the number, if you look

1970
01:54:31,640 --> 01:54:35,640
Speaker 1: at the economic numbers, it's just you know, if you're not,

1971
01:54:36,480 --> 01:54:39,680
Speaker 1: if you're not, it's just sort of like it takes

1972
01:54:39,680 --> 01:54:41,680
Speaker 1: money to make money. But if you don't have the money,

1973
01:54:42,000 --> 01:54:44,720
Speaker 1: you can't take advantage of the situation we're in with

1974
01:54:44,800 --> 01:54:47,880
Speaker 1: the stock market. And then it feels like you can

1975
01:54:47,920 --> 01:54:50,320
Speaker 1: never get ahead. They can never catch up, let alone

1976
01:54:50,360 --> 01:54:54,360
Speaker 1: get ahead. So I think this is a really crappy

1977
01:54:54,400 --> 01:54:57,320
Speaker 1: economy if you don't already have a savings or you

1978
01:54:57,400 --> 01:55:01,800
Speaker 1: don't already have a house, and and so no amount

1979
01:55:01,840 --> 01:55:04,560
Speaker 1: of numbers is going to mask the feeling people have

1980
01:55:04,680 --> 01:55:08,560
Speaker 1: the inability to move up the economic ladder, the inability

1981
01:55:08,600 --> 01:55:10,280
Speaker 1: to get out of one house and get into one

1982
01:55:10,280 --> 01:55:13,040
Speaker 1: that's slightly bigger and sort of move up, you know,

1983
01:55:13,280 --> 01:55:16,640
Speaker 1: you sort of participate in what the American dream is

1984
01:55:16,640 --> 01:55:20,280
Speaker 1: supposed to be. So and I think twenty six, I

1985
01:55:20,280 --> 01:55:25,200
Speaker 1: think we're going to have sort of a stock market

1986
01:55:25,240 --> 01:55:30,240
Speaker 1: that may give one perception of the economy, and then

1987
01:55:32,040 --> 01:55:36,920
Speaker 1: the cost to live, you know, higher healthcare premiums, higher,

1988
01:55:37,320 --> 01:55:41,080
Speaker 1: you know, prices on every little good because of tariffs,

1989
01:55:43,320 --> 01:55:46,560
Speaker 1: are electric bills, and I look, I think the the

1990
01:55:46,600 --> 01:55:51,280
Speaker 1: anti data stuff, the AI data farms are going to

1991
01:55:51,320 --> 01:55:56,280
Speaker 1: start becoming political targets and get blamed. In some places

1992
01:55:56,320 --> 01:55:59,080
Speaker 1: it's fair. Some places it may not be fair for

1993
01:55:59,400 --> 01:56:04,280
Speaker 1: increase the cost of power. It's possible Trump takes some

1994
01:56:04,400 --> 01:56:08,080
Speaker 1: heat for not embracing in all of the above energy

1995
01:56:08,120 --> 01:56:13,400
Speaker 1: policy which could lower our power bills over time instead

1996
01:56:13,400 --> 01:56:18,360
Speaker 1: of increasing them. So I do think the cost to

1997
01:56:18,400 --> 01:56:21,040
Speaker 1: live is not going away as an issue, even if

1998
01:56:21,040 --> 01:56:24,200
Speaker 1: the sort of the numbers of the economy will look

1999
01:56:24,400 --> 01:56:26,120
Speaker 1: pretty good if you look at it a certain way,

2000
01:56:26,160 --> 01:56:30,000
Speaker 1: particularly if you have some wealth versus what the numbers

2001
01:56:30,000 --> 01:56:32,600
Speaker 1: will look like to those that can't break into that

2002
01:56:33,400 --> 01:56:40,200
Speaker 1: part of the economy. And so I have a feeling

2003
01:56:40,280 --> 01:56:42,480
Speaker 1: that's what things are going to look like in twenty

2004
01:56:42,520 --> 01:56:46,480
Speaker 1: six and that's that maybe the best case scenario for

2005
01:56:46,560 --> 01:56:51,600
Speaker 1: our economic outlook. All right, next question comes from Roger L. Hey, Chuck,

2006
01:56:51,600 --> 01:56:53,640
Speaker 1: I've been listening to your podcast for a year, all right,

2007
01:56:53,680 --> 01:56:56,760
Speaker 1: and I appreciate your deep political insight. I have shallow

2008
01:56:56,800 --> 01:56:58,880
Speaker 1: political insight too. I promise I can go to the

2009
01:56:58,920 --> 01:57:01,200
Speaker 1: deep end, but I'll get shallow if you want. You

2010
01:57:01,240 --> 01:57:03,600
Speaker 1: want to do some Paul fine Bob, I just have

2011
01:57:03,720 --> 01:57:05,640
Speaker 1: one piece of advice for Paul finebomb by the way,

2012
01:57:05,680 --> 01:57:08,760
Speaker 1: to do some shallow hot take political analysis that an

2013
01:57:08,960 --> 01:57:13,440
Speaker 1: ESPN person will understand everybody who says they love you. Now,

2014
01:57:16,320 --> 01:57:20,120
Speaker 1: just wait till you jump into politics. Brother, Okay, none

2015
01:57:20,160 --> 01:57:22,320
Speaker 1: of your word. You think your words get scrutinized now

2016
01:57:22,360 --> 01:57:25,560
Speaker 1: by SEC fans. You ain't see nothing yet, and he

2017
01:57:25,640 --> 01:57:28,480
Speaker 1: already has sort of gotten a high hard one by

2018
01:57:28,560 --> 01:57:31,320
Speaker 1: his you know where somebody dug up something he said

2019
01:57:31,320 --> 01:57:35,800
Speaker 1: about Trump in twenty seventeen. Look, if Trump gets you

2020
01:57:35,920 --> 01:57:38,320
Speaker 1: the endorsement, then you're right. You'll be able to skate

2021
01:57:38,400 --> 01:57:42,760
Speaker 1: by and it makes everything you said about him forgivable

2022
01:57:42,880 --> 01:57:48,720
Speaker 1: to the maga world. I'm not so convinced you're going

2023
01:57:48,800 --> 01:57:51,040
Speaker 1: to get Trump on your side, mister finebamb, but we

2024
01:57:51,080 --> 01:57:53,440
Speaker 1: shall say all right, sorry, just thought i'd provide you

2025
01:57:53,480 --> 01:57:55,280
Speaker 1: a little shallow political analysis set up to the deep

2026
01:57:55,280 --> 01:57:58,680
Speaker 1: political insight he goes. You've often noted the Democrats struggled

2027
01:57:58,680 --> 01:58:00,920
Speaker 1: to find themselves beyond being not try. Even as you

2028
01:58:00,920 --> 01:58:03,280
Speaker 1: discussed issues like democracy and equality and the rule of law.

2029
01:58:03,520 --> 01:58:05,960
Speaker 1: Chruck me that while Republicans have Project twenty twenty five

2030
01:58:05,960 --> 01:58:08,560
Speaker 1: as a roadmap, Democrats could use their own Project twenty

2031
01:58:08,600 --> 01:58:12,240
Speaker 1: twenty eight or twenty twenty nine to outline concrete, broadly

2032
01:58:12,280 --> 01:58:15,240
Speaker 1: supported reforms when I give voters a clear vision of change, Roger,

2033
01:58:15,320 --> 01:58:18,720
Speaker 1: I am increasingly somebody else has written something similar to this,

2034
01:58:19,560 --> 01:58:24,080
Speaker 1: and I'm increasingly thinking that it is something Democrats ought

2035
01:58:24,120 --> 01:58:27,680
Speaker 1: to do, because you know what, it's actually been done before,

2036
01:58:27,720 --> 01:58:32,000
Speaker 1: and it's worked. You know, the Contract with America ninety

2037
01:58:32,000 --> 01:58:36,160
Speaker 1: four worked. I think the public, you know, a cynic

2038
01:58:36,280 --> 01:58:38,560
Speaker 1: like me may say it's a bunch of hogwash, only

2039
01:58:38,560 --> 01:58:41,400
Speaker 1: about two or three items and their real priorities. But

2040
01:58:42,360 --> 01:58:44,840
Speaker 1: voters want to know you're going to get something done right.

2041
01:58:44,920 --> 01:58:48,000
Speaker 1: And I think that and they're in some ways, you know,

2042
01:58:48,800 --> 01:58:50,680
Speaker 1: like in the movie Tommy Boy, they want to guarantee

2043
01:58:50,720 --> 01:58:53,080
Speaker 1: on the box. You know, he wants to right there

2044
01:58:53,120 --> 01:58:56,600
Speaker 1: on the box. It's smiling at you, it's looking at you, right.

2045
01:58:58,520 --> 01:59:01,880
Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, I think that there's something to it.

2046
01:59:03,800 --> 01:59:06,960
Speaker 1: I think the lack of trust in politicians these days

2047
01:59:07,000 --> 01:59:09,000
Speaker 1: means you got to put it in writing. So I

2048
01:59:09,040 --> 01:59:13,440
Speaker 1: actually think if you if you, you know, we're all

2049
01:59:13,600 --> 01:59:17,400
Speaker 1: so accustomed to believe that you can't really believe that

2050
01:59:17,480 --> 01:59:21,040
Speaker 1: a politician isn't gonna do what they say and say

2051
01:59:21,040 --> 01:59:27,200
Speaker 1: what they do, right, So I think it would be healthy.

2052
01:59:27,280 --> 01:59:29,680
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the downside to it is what the

2053
01:59:29,720 --> 01:59:32,640
Speaker 1: downside why the Trump campaign ran away from it, not

2054
01:59:32,720 --> 01:59:35,920
Speaker 1: towards it, even though it was a governing blueprint. That's

2055
01:59:35,920 --> 01:59:37,760
Speaker 1: because some of the things that we're gonna do and

2056
01:59:37,800 --> 01:59:41,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna turn off swing voters, and that's the danger. Right.

2057
01:59:41,640 --> 01:59:44,960
Speaker 1: It all depends on how big your coalition is. But

2058
01:59:45,320 --> 01:59:49,320
Speaker 1: I think generally voters do want to see something in writing.

2059
01:59:50,800 --> 01:59:55,360
Speaker 1: I do, so I think there's something to it. But

2060
01:59:57,160 --> 01:59:59,480
Speaker 1: don't you know, I think the problem with Project twenty

2061
01:59:59,520 --> 02:00:01,800
Speaker 1: twenty five that was written to a love letter to MAGA,

2062
02:00:04,240 --> 02:00:07,880
Speaker 1: which is why it was politically unpopular with what they

2063
02:00:07,880 --> 02:00:11,760
Speaker 1: were doing. If somebody has an agenda that is sort

2064
02:00:11,760 --> 02:00:15,120
Speaker 1: of more of a broad agenda that's designed to benefit

2065
02:00:15,640 --> 02:00:18,960
Speaker 1: as many Americans as possible, not just members of your side,

2066
02:00:20,040 --> 02:00:25,320
Speaker 1: I think putting it in writing could be very very effective.

2067
02:00:26,680 --> 02:00:28,640
Speaker 1: All right, I'm just thinking one more question here. This

2068
02:00:28,680 --> 02:00:30,880
Speaker 1: one comes from Brian said, how would you handle the

2069
02:00:30,880 --> 02:00:33,640
Speaker 1: bad faith arguments of misinformation that republics are using influence

2070
02:00:33,680 --> 02:00:40,160
Speaker 1: government shutdown debate? Well, look, I guess I would. You know,

2071
02:00:40,200 --> 02:00:44,360
Speaker 1: this is where I tactically think I would have I

2072
02:00:44,400 --> 02:00:47,520
Speaker 1: go back. I don't think I would have made this

2073
02:00:47,680 --> 02:00:50,560
Speaker 1: my moment of truth. I think I would have taken

2074
02:00:50,600 --> 02:00:53,680
Speaker 1: the clean cr and taken this to November and then

2075
02:00:53,800 --> 02:00:57,200
Speaker 1: made November the be all and all on healthcare. I

2076
02:00:57,240 --> 02:00:59,760
Speaker 1: still think it's a good argument. I still think it's

2077
02:00:59,800 --> 02:01:06,120
Speaker 1: a it's it's certainly look if this were just about healthcare,

2078
02:01:06,840 --> 02:01:09,920
Speaker 1: they'd already have opened the government. It's obviously not just

2079
02:01:10,000 --> 02:01:14,240
Speaker 1: about healthcare. I do think plenty of Democrats inside that's

2080
02:01:14,280 --> 02:01:18,240
Speaker 1: inside those elected Senate and health conferences, say Jesus, he's

2081
02:01:18,320 --> 02:01:21,480
Speaker 1: running rough shot over the constitution. We've got to show

2082
02:01:21,560 --> 02:01:23,960
Speaker 1: some spine. You've got to stand up to him on somebody.

2083
02:01:24,160 --> 02:01:27,240
Speaker 1: We've got to provide a road, if not a roadblock,

2084
02:01:27,280 --> 02:01:31,960
Speaker 1: at least a speed bump, make it harder for him

2085
02:01:31,960 --> 02:01:35,800
Speaker 1: to do these things, not easier. Right, So the problem

2086
02:01:35,960 --> 02:01:38,400
Speaker 1: is that is not I don't think a lot of voters,

2087
02:01:39,120 --> 02:01:43,480
Speaker 1: you know, the the democracy arguments haven't worked. They work

2088
02:01:43,520 --> 02:01:46,040
Speaker 1: with the base, but they don't work with swing voters.

2089
02:01:46,480 --> 02:01:48,879
Speaker 1: What does work with swing voters is stuff that impacts

2090
02:01:48,880 --> 02:01:54,040
Speaker 1: them cost of living, health care subsidies. Right. That's so

2091
02:01:54,720 --> 02:01:59,720
Speaker 1: I understand the choice of issue is correct politically, but

2092
02:02:01,280 --> 02:02:04,160
Speaker 1: they're in a you know, they lost some high ground

2093
02:02:04,160 --> 02:02:06,600
Speaker 1: and quote unquote clean cr I get it. Trump is

2094
02:02:06,840 --> 02:02:11,640
Speaker 1: totally and completely an unreliable partner to negotiate with because

2095
02:02:11,640 --> 02:02:14,120
Speaker 1: of what he did on recisions. But just look at

2096
02:02:14,120 --> 02:02:17,600
Speaker 1: the word recisions. It is not something that is in

2097
02:02:17,640 --> 02:02:22,440
Speaker 1: the everyday lexicon, and you're like, what the recisions? Seventy

2098
02:02:22,480 --> 02:02:25,840
Speaker 1: percent of the country's going, wait, what are you recissoring?

2099
02:02:26,000 --> 02:02:31,240
Speaker 1: What are you talking about? And so I think the

2100
02:02:31,320 --> 02:02:33,760
Speaker 1: real motivation here is that, hey, this guy's running rough

2101
02:02:33,800 --> 02:02:37,000
Speaker 1: shot and not following the Constitution. But that's been an

2102
02:02:37,000 --> 02:02:42,840
Speaker 1: incredibly hard argument to get mass appeal for. You could

2103
02:02:42,880 --> 02:02:46,280
Speaker 1: say maybe that that's the principle worth standing on it.

2104
02:02:46,320 --> 02:02:52,440
Speaker 1: I don't disagree, but and I certainly think this. You know,

2105
02:02:53,240 --> 02:02:54,800
Speaker 1: if you're asking me what I would do with this

2106
02:02:55,760 --> 02:02:58,000
Speaker 1: undocumented you know, the idea of they want health care

2107
02:02:58,000 --> 02:03:02,480
Speaker 1: for the undocumented, I would continue to ask the rhetorical

2108
02:03:02,560 --> 02:03:07,040
Speaker 1: question so should emergency rooms reject anybody who is in

2109
02:03:07,080 --> 02:03:12,960
Speaker 1: a citizen has anybody who heard of the hipocratic oath? Right,

2110
02:03:13,480 --> 02:03:16,320
Speaker 1: no doctor is going to do that, And that is

2111
02:03:16,360 --> 02:03:20,720
Speaker 1: not what America does. We're the United States of fucking America.

2112
02:03:20,880 --> 02:03:24,800
Speaker 1: Pardon my French here, Actually, you know I'm speaking American here.

2113
02:03:25,240 --> 02:03:29,320
Speaker 1: We don't do that. We don't leave people to die

2114
02:03:29,640 --> 02:03:33,920
Speaker 1: in our country just because of what country they're from.

2115
02:03:34,080 --> 02:03:38,120
Speaker 1: That's not what we supposedly are holding ourselves up for

2116
02:03:38,200 --> 02:03:40,920
Speaker 1: as a role model for the world. So if you're

2117
02:03:40,920 --> 02:03:43,160
Speaker 1: asking me how I would push back on that aspect

2118
02:03:43,200 --> 02:03:45,760
Speaker 1: of the debate, I'd say, why do you want people

2119
02:03:45,800 --> 02:03:49,360
Speaker 1: to die in emergency rooms? If you're there going to

2120
02:03:49,400 --> 02:03:52,080
Speaker 1: be disingenuous? You fight back with you take a kernel

2121
02:03:52,120 --> 02:03:55,960
Speaker 1: of truth? Do you want to rescind the law that

2122
02:03:56,200 --> 02:04:00,360
Speaker 1: says emergency rooms do get reimbursed for treating anybody that

2123
02:04:00,400 --> 02:04:06,240
Speaker 1: comes in, regardless of their nationality or their citizenship. I

2124
02:04:06,280 --> 02:04:09,040
Speaker 1: promise you that wouldn't be popular. We're religious enough in

2125
02:04:09,080 --> 02:04:11,480
Speaker 1: America to still think that we ought to take care

2126
02:04:11,480 --> 02:04:17,200
Speaker 1: of somebody regardless, you know, no matter their hurt. Now, look,

2127
02:04:17,720 --> 02:04:21,560
Speaker 1: if somebody committed a crime, we patch them up. Then

2128
02:04:21,600 --> 02:04:24,400
Speaker 1: we arrest them, right. Mark Sanchez found out about that

2129
02:04:25,480 --> 02:04:30,520
Speaker 1: in Indianapolis over the weekend for football fans at Paula

2130
02:04:30,560 --> 02:04:34,120
Speaker 1: bet that story. If you need more on that, just

2131
02:04:34,120 --> 02:04:36,200
Speaker 1: go google it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna get

2132
02:04:36,200 --> 02:04:38,360
Speaker 1: into it. But the point is, drask me about how

2133
02:04:38,360 --> 02:04:39,800
Speaker 1: to deal with that. That's how we deal with it.

2134
02:04:40,880 --> 02:04:43,960
Speaker 1: But I do think that the shutdown politics are complicated

2135
02:04:43,960 --> 02:04:47,200
Speaker 1: because the real reason Democrats are drawing a line in

2136
02:04:47,200 --> 02:04:49,560
Speaker 1: the same of the ear is not about healthcare, right,

2137
02:04:49,640 --> 02:04:53,440
Speaker 1: It's about the entire process of working with Donald Trump

2138
02:04:53,920 --> 02:04:57,839
Speaker 1: and how he has not you know, why should Democrats

2139
02:04:57,880 --> 02:05:03,880
Speaker 1: provide sixty votes for appropriations when they will use fifty

2140
02:05:03,960 --> 02:05:08,440
Speaker 1: votes on a parting line two to rescind some of

2141
02:05:08,560 --> 02:05:13,360
Speaker 1: any repropriation they don't like, which they've already done. So

2142
02:05:13,400 --> 02:05:16,480
Speaker 1: I think that that's the that's where this is. You know,

2143
02:05:16,600 --> 02:05:19,520
Speaker 1: He's this is a you can't you can't trust the negotiation.

2144
02:05:20,440 --> 02:05:26,560
Speaker 1: It's a fair gripe, and it's one that is It's

2145
02:05:26,640 --> 02:05:29,400
Speaker 1: it's like, who's to say they would do this, They've

2146
02:05:29,440 --> 02:05:33,240
Speaker 1: already done it, right, So, but that is a tough

2147
02:05:33,280 --> 02:05:36,800
Speaker 1: one to galvanize the public on. That's the problem, the

2148
02:05:36,840 --> 02:05:39,480
Speaker 1: specific issue of healthcare is something that the public will

2149
02:05:39,520 --> 02:05:44,520
Speaker 1: galvanize about. And I have to say, I think Republicans

2150
02:05:44,560 --> 02:05:48,920
Speaker 1: are fumbling this healthcare conversation right when Marjorie Taylor Green

2151
02:05:49,000 --> 02:05:50,560
Speaker 1: is the one out there leading the charge of hey,

2152
02:05:50,560 --> 02:05:52,040
Speaker 1: we got to get these healthcare stuff. What are we

2153
02:05:52,080 --> 02:05:55,560
Speaker 1: doing to people? If you notice she went out there

2154
02:05:55,600 --> 02:05:58,520
Speaker 1: and said that, Donald Trump started to say, hey, I

2155
02:05:58,680 --> 02:06:00,320
Speaker 1: we're gonna We're going to provide good health care. You

2156
02:06:00,360 --> 02:06:04,640
Speaker 1: can quite say, how right, But he's sensitive, he's nervous

2157
02:06:04,640 --> 02:06:08,880
Speaker 1: about this issue. So in that sense, the Democrats have

2158
02:06:08,920 --> 02:06:12,320
Speaker 1: made some gains on the shutdown simply getting that issue

2159
02:06:12,320 --> 02:06:14,880
Speaker 1: more front center, because look, it is hard to break

2160
02:06:14,920 --> 02:06:18,280
Speaker 1: through on anything these days in the world of Donald Trump.

2161
02:06:18,320 --> 02:06:22,160
Speaker 1: All right, with that, I will call it a podcast.

2162
02:06:22,200 --> 02:06:26,760
Speaker 1: Appreciate you listening. Thank you as always. You know, sometimes

2163
02:06:26,760 --> 02:06:29,720
Speaker 1: I'm my old man yelling at cloud, and you guys,

2164
02:06:30,360 --> 02:06:32,240
Speaker 1: I see by the numbers, I am not. So I

2165
02:06:32,320 --> 02:06:35,480
Speaker 1: appreciate that there's a lot of a lot of people

2166
02:06:35,560 --> 02:06:38,200
Speaker 1: joining me in yelling at the cloud. And with that,

2167
02:06:38,240 --> 02:06:42,320
Speaker 1: I'll see it for twenty four hours until we upload again.