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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, welcome to the Buck Brief.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Biden's trip to Israel and everything that

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Speaker 1: could happen here in the day's head. First off, as

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Speaker 1: you know, Joe Biden is and always has been, not

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Speaker 1: only a buffoon, but somebody who has been consistently wrong

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Speaker 1: on all matters of foreign policy. So his judgment is

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Speaker 1: famously terrible. His ability to look at a circumstance, a

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Speaker 1: situation and come to a conclusion that is advantageous to

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Speaker 1: the US that will result in the best possible outcome. Basically,

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Speaker 1: the guy's a dumbass. And this has been known for

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Speaker 1: a very long time. Now he's over there, and before

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Speaker 1: he even had the issues of cognitive decline, to be clear,

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Speaker 1: Now he's going over there and he's trying to well

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Speaker 1: accomplish what exactly. He's also meeting, for example, with Mahmoudabass

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Speaker 1: c I'll see see of Egypt and King of Dullah

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Speaker 1: of Jordan. So Abbass is the head of the Palestinian

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Speaker 1: authority in the West Bank, and there's not much that

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Speaker 1: I think is going to come from that negotiation. He's not.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's unlikely there'll be much in those discussions.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting about the talks with Abbas and Alcisi is

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Speaker 1: they've both up to this point said no refugees. They

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Speaker 1: won't take in refugees. Think about that for a moment.

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Speaker 1: The Palestinian population of the Gaza strip in the West

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Speaker 1: Bank is an obsession of the Muslim world. The Muslim

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Speaker 1: world is absolutely positively fixated on the oppression and the

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Speaker 1: suffering of the Palestinian people. And yet now these countries,

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Speaker 1: very large countries, some of them with a lot of resources,

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Speaker 1: are unwilling to take what a couple of one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand refugees. Now Jordan would say they've already taken so

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Speaker 1: many Palestinians over the years that Jordan is effectively a

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Speaker 1: Palestinian dominated state, are close to it. A large percentage

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Speaker 1: of the Jordanian people are ethnically Palestinian. Jordan's also taken

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Speaker 1: in I've been to the Zatrii refugee camp, which which

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Speaker 1: at the time this is back in two thousand and fourteen,

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Speaker 1: had one hundred and twenty thousand people living in tents

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Speaker 1: in the desert from the Syrian War. So Jordan has

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Speaker 1: already been this pressure vow for the region for a

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Speaker 1: long time, so I can understand why they don't want

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Speaker 1: to deal with this. And Egypt has its own internal

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Speaker 1: problems and is you know, not doing very well as

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Speaker 1: a state in a whole range of ways. So I

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Speaker 1: get why the cost and the political calculation here are

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Speaker 1: no refugees, you know, when they look at the cost,

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Speaker 1: they look at the politics, they've decided they don't want

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Speaker 1: to do it. So then what is Biden likely to

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Speaker 1: do in the midst of this trip, Well, it's basically

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Speaker 1: going to be warning Hesbelah and Iran that if they

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Speaker 1: get involved in this more directly, and they're already involved,

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Speaker 1: so this is a little bit of a yeah, this

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Speaker 1: is a little bit of escalation talk. We'd have to

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Speaker 1: get into here what counts as an escalation. But essentially,

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Speaker 1: if either of those states open up another front, if

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Speaker 1: Iran or Lebanon and the guys of Hesbelah opens up

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Speaker 1: another front in the war with Israel, well the war

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Speaker 1: between Israel and Hamas right now, Hesbel Iran get involved

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Speaker 1: in that, then there's going to be massive consequences. There

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Speaker 1: will be a series I would assume of the US

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Speaker 1: air strikes, and we would become active combatants in this.

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Speaker 1: That's effectively what Joe Biden's telling them. So, while we're

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Speaker 1: funding the war in Ukraine, which is going right now

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Speaker 1: nowhere it is a true stalemate. If anything, the Russians

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Speaker 1: gained a little bit of territory last year. While that

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Speaker 1: is happening, we are now also positioning ourselves for a

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Speaker 1: possible not just escalation in the Middle East, but involvement

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Speaker 1: by US forces in the conflict. Now, what would that

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Speaker 1: look like. It would all depend on the proportionality of

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Speaker 1: whatever Hesbelah and Iran may do. I think it is

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Speaker 1: unlikely that either of those country well Lebanon run by

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Speaker 1: Hesbela or Iran, will do anything that will bring the

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Speaker 1: US into the conflict in a major way. But we

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Speaker 1: have sent two carrier groups there for a reason, right,

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Speaker 1: We have sent major US military resources there because we

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Speaker 1: are telling them if they get out of line, there

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Speaker 1: will be massive military consequences. Now, we're not getting directly involved,

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Speaker 1: at least certainly not officially in anything in Gaza, although

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Speaker 1: intelligence support and other things like that are to be expected.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the imminent ground invasion

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Speaker 1: in Gaza and some of the complicating factors here in

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Speaker 1: Now here's the problem that I think we face, or

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Speaker 1: the Israelis civilization forces of civilization face in their ground

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Speaker 1: invasion of Gaza. They've been preparing for this for a

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Speaker 1: long time. Remember we've gone through a series of Israeli

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Speaker 1: you know, the forces of Hamas will fire off. Usually

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Speaker 1: it's rockets, enough rockets that they bring about an Israeli response,

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Speaker 1: and then they try to maximize Hamas tries to maximize

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Speaker 1: civilian casualties using human shields of their own people. They

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Speaker 1: try to maximize civilian casualties in this process so that

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Speaker 1: they create as much death, despair, and hatred as possible.

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Speaker 1: And that is the strategy. That's what they're really seeking

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Speaker 1: to do with all of this. People think, oh, there's

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Speaker 1: long term they want their own state, they want the

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Speaker 1: Jewish state to end. Yeah, I mean that's some distant dystopia,

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Speaker 1: dystopia through genocide that they hope to achieve. But in

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Speaker 1: the meantime, it's just maximum death, despair, and destruction. But

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Speaker 1: Hamas has been through this cycle, and Israel has been

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Speaker 1: through this cycle with them already numerous times. So there's

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Speaker 1: been a learning process here, and Hamas has had years

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Speaker 1: in preparation for what the Israeli RESPONSI will because the

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Speaker 1: first thing is the Israelis are going to want to

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Speaker 1: know where the weapons caches are, where the bad guys are.

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Speaker 1: That's it, right, Find the bad guys, find the weapons,

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Speaker 1: destroy them, take them out. So the intelligence component of this,

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Speaker 1: which Israelis generally have excelled at, well, that might be

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Speaker 1: in real question right now, given that they missed this

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Speaker 1: massive attack in the first place. So the intelligence gathering aspect,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure Hamas has put out more disinformation. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: Hamas has tried to have different comms, communication, discipline, and

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Speaker 1: to make sure that the Israeli target set is very

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Speaker 1: compli catered to get set up right. That it's very

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Speaker 1: hard for these really to figure out what are they

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Speaker 1: trying to hit. That's part one of this now that's

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Speaker 1: not new. But I do think that Hamas probably this

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Speaker 1: time around, has some things that they have, some measures

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Speaker 1: they've taken and put some things in place that will

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Speaker 1: have an effect that will make this more complicated for

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Speaker 1: these relations. Right. Part two of this the tunnel networks.

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Speaker 1: You may have even seen some of the graphics that

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Speaker 1: are in New York Times other places of these massive

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Speaker 1: tunnel networks. Underground air strikes are I mean, these Raelis

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Speaker 1: have total air dominance, so they can hit anything they

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Speaker 1: want from the air, and we haven't seen much in

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Speaker 1: the way of a Palestinian aerial defense with say man pads,

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Speaker 1: man portable air defense systems, shoulder fired missiles that could

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Speaker 1: take down Israeli aircraft. They probably have some, but that

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Speaker 1: hasn't yet been an issue. And also the Israelis can, like,

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Speaker 1: depending on the weapons system we're talking about, the Israelis

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Speaker 1: could strike from a high enough level that they probably

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Speaker 1: would be out of range of a lot of the

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Speaker 1: more simple shoulder fired rockets and things like that that

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Speaker 1: are out there. Okay, so now we get to why

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Speaker 1: the tunnels have been built. The Hamas fighters are going

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Speaker 1: to be able to pop up and engage in guerrilla

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Speaker 1: warfare tactics against the invading or you know in the Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's an invasion. Invading Gaza, the oncoming Israeli

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Speaker 1: forces the IDEF. Now, in the past, there have been

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Speaker 1: Theseraelis have suffered relatively speaking, few casualties in the dozens.

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Speaker 1: I think was the last time. I think it was

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Speaker 1: about They might have lost fifty or sixty killed in

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Speaker 1: the last incursion, you know, which is just limited military strike.

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Speaker 1: So this time around, I would expect, especially with Hamas's preparations,

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Speaker 1: the tunnels they have, and the severity of the Israeli response,

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Speaker 1: meaning they're going to go even further and go harder

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Speaker 1: after Hamas, you will likely see a rise in those

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Speaker 1: Israeli soldier casualties, which Hamas clearly wants. So those are

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Speaker 1: some of the complications that I see here, and I'll

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Speaker 1: point zero. So where is all of this heading. I

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Speaker 1: think that you will see a week's long Israeli military

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Speaker 1: incursion that will remove the capture or kill almost all

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Speaker 1: senior Hamas leadership. I think you'll see a lot of

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Speaker 1: saber rattling from Iran. You might see some rockets fired

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Speaker 1: from a blah, but nothing beyond that. No incursions into

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Speaker 1: Israeli territory by hasible of fighters. This this is just

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Speaker 1: my prediction. This is what I think is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: The left wing pro Hamas, pro Palestine press is going

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Speaker 1: to just hammer the issue of the humanitarian disaster that

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Speaker 1: Israel's causing in Gaza. That's what they'll say. And they'll

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Speaker 1: talk endlessly about any civilian casualties that occur, even though

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Speaker 1: Hamas wants to maximize those casualties and Israel wants to

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Speaker 1: minimize those casualties. And yeah, that's that's where I think

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Speaker 1: all of this is heading. So I don't believe it

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Speaker 1: will grow into a broader war. God forbid. I certainly

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Speaker 1: hope it doesn't grow into a broader war, and the

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Speaker 1: Israelis will handle this. That the issue that I see

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Speaker 1: is what happens to Gaza after this? And that's where

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Speaker 1: I don't have an answer for you. Who's in charge?

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Speaker 1: Who's in charge when the Israelis want to leave? I mean,

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Speaker 1: the options here are essentially beat up Hamas as much

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Speaker 1: as you can and then pull out and see who's

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Speaker 1: left standing, and you know, that's it. Or Israel takes

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Speaker 1: a portion of Gaza as effectively a demilitarized zone or

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Speaker 1: a you know, strategic depth protectorate for military purposes. That's it.

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Speaker 1: I don't see another. There's not gonna be some un mandate.

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Speaker 1: There's not gonna be some peacekeeping force that I can imagine. Maybe,

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Speaker 1: but I think that's very, very unlikely. You know, if

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Speaker 1: Talk to you tomorrow. Shield High