WEBVTT - Promising PCE Data, Morning Consult Poll 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:09.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Now you're listening to 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:13.040 the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us Live weekdays at ten 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.720 am Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broud Auto with 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:18.800 the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:21.600 your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:24.599 Let's go ahead and get to the economic data of 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:27.040 the morning. The notes that I'm getting seemed to then 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:30.760 reaffirm that Goldilock scenario, right, because we have subdued inflation, 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:32.159 everything else seems to be hanging in. 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:33.760 The FED can continue to cut. 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:36.400 Maybe they can even cut fifty if inflations come down enough. 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:40.080 Ira Jersey is Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US interests rate strategist, 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:43.159 and he joins us. Now, Ira, is that theory like, Hey, 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.280 it's Goldilocks. Hey, inflation comes down, they can cut fifty. 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:48.080 Is that vibe with you? 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:50.839 It depends. It depends if the trend continues or if 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.600 we stabilize here right on. One of the things, Alex, 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.520 that I've been looking at is this trend in and 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:01.360 slowing momentum in just the number of transactions. So one 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:04.000 of the things that you get with the PC report 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:07.400 is not only these okay, personal spending is is you know, 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.160 up a little bit and inflation is a little bit lower, 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.800 And yes, that seems like goldilocks, But when you look 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.560 at the momentum of the economy and the momentum of 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:19.800 personal spending, it's it's come down quite dramatically, and it 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:24.160 even slowed again this h in the latest month, which 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:26.319 is it's still August, right, so it's still like pretty 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.039 old data in terms of you know, all before the 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:32.800 cut and everything else, but by the Fed. So it 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:35.800 I still it does not point to an upbeat economy 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:39.080 right now. And there is this this issue and I'm 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.200 gonna you know, talking about like the h the potential 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:46.200 long short and strike if inflation goes up, because you know, 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.600 good sector prices continue to go up. I think one 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:53.240 of the questions is it will consumers then, you know, 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:55.360 buy more goods or buy the same goods at a 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:58.800 higher price, and not buy as many services because services 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.320 is really what's been propping up the economy, and that 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:04.800 was confirmed again in this report, with services continuing to 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:08.240 be the one bright part of the economy whereas everything 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:09.560 else is actually kind of met. 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:12.240 Now, one thing I've been trying to get a read on, 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:15.040 does inflation data matter to the same extent that it 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:19.560 did before, or is now the focus really shifting toward employment. 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:22.760 Yeah, So when you go back eighteen months, the Fed 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.120 basically had a single mandate and that was to get 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:28.799 inflation lower, and it didn't really care what was going 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:31.400 on in the jobs market. All the jobs market was fine. 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:34.280 So now we're more in balance, right, So, yes, the 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:38.959 inflation data still matters, but the employment data matters at 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:42.400 least as much. And the employment data, you know, is 0:02:42.400 --> 0:02:45.680 certainly weakening. But in a historical context, you go back 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:47.080 a long time ago, and we used to say that 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:49.680 like one hundred and fifty thousand jobs being created a 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:53.119 month was fine. The I think the issue is now 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:57.520 is will that continue to decelerate further? And then what 0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.920 does that does that of a knock on effect on 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:05.040 wages because the other piece of the why spending continues 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:07.960 to be reasonably robust in the services sector is that 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.720 wage growth has been okay. So even though there's still 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:13.120 a lot of people who are having a problem finding jobs. 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:16.720 You know, we talk about new entrances to the workforce. 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.440 You know, college students who can't find a job after 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:25.040 school is trending a little bit higher. But the issue 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.600 is that even though they have a problem, the people 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.560 who have jobs have been continuing to get reasonable wage 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:35.160 increases and that's allowed for personal spending to be maintained, 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:38.440 you know, two ish percent per year, and that's not 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:42.080 a terrible outcome. The thing is will that be maintained, 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:44.080 And actually I question whether or not it can be 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:47.360 maintained just given all of the trends that are currently 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:47.840 in place. 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:53.320 What's also quite interesting too is the amount of money 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:55.960 that people still have. And I hear you on the 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.880 wage increases, but there was the revision in data yesterday 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.680 that saw the income was actually revised up by eight 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:04.440 hundred billion dollars between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three. 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:06.640 I was also taking a look at money market funds 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.360 and how much money has gone back into money market 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.880 funds ever since the Fed did cut and that if 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.840 you take a look at say, income generated from money 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:19.320 market surged to more than twenty seven billion in August alone, 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:21.440 it's like, we don't know how to discount that yet. 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.120 Well, there certainly is income from interest again, right when 0:04:25.200 --> 0:04:27.760 where we haven't been used to that the last fifteen years. 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.320 But you know, you go back to the early two thousands, 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:32.880 you go back to the nineteen nineties, and in and 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:37.080 interest income was a non trivial share of overall income. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:39.520 You can't just look at money market funds. And the 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:42.440 reason is is that there's still this disconnect between the 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:44.960 rates of money market funds, which are still well over 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:47.880 four percent right on four and a half four four 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:51.800 and three quarters percent, versus deposits at banks. Right the 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.000 posits at banks are still paying you know, relatively low 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.560 interest compared to money market funds. So people are still 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:03.280 you know, incrementally when incremental savings goes into money markets, 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.920 as is still some depositive flight out of some banks 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.279 and into money market funds. So don't think about that 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:11.239 as cash on the sideline. I think that's a mistake. 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:13.800 People are doing that. That is savings, right, That is 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:18.480 people who are saving their money, and also people who 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:21.720 are worried that like with stocks at their relatively lofty 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:26.400 valuations in some people's opinion, then you know, the return 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.200 to cash makes some sense because if you can lock 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:31.960 in you know, four percent for the next say, three 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:36.200 to six months and then redeploy that money. People are 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:40.240 considering doing that because you know, you might say, oh, well, 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:43.440 that's a little short sighted too, because if money funds 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:45.839 are paying four and three quarters percent, and then the 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.559 Federal Reserve were to cut interest rates another hundred basis 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:50.760 points this year, then you're looking at what the ten 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:53.680 year yield is right now. So I do think that 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.560 there are some people who are, you know, trying to reallocate, 0:05:56.600 --> 0:06:00.799 going into safe assets. But that rotation, that's not money 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.279 that's going to rotate back in the stocks just because 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:05.000 interest rates are a little bit lower, and it's going 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:07.560 to find other fixed income assets or find its way 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:09.240 back into bank deposits more than likely. 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:12.800 Let's talk soft and hard landings. What has been the 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:16.000 general consensus as we've seen this latest data. What are 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:17.359 you looking forward to. 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.520 Let's pretend that you can't use the word goldilocks. 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:21.520 Yes, off limits. 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:25.880 So well, so the way that we have so the 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:28.359 way we have it couched and we put out a 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:30.479 piece earlier this week where we looked at five different 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:34.799 scenarios for how the economy might react and where treasure 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:38.039 yields and how the Fed might react. Each of those 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:40.440 five scenarios, so one is a hard landing, and that's 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.760 actually our base case scenario is we do think we're 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:44.920 going to see a recession in the next twelve to 0:06:45.040 --> 0:06:48.200 eighteen months, and because of that, you have treasure yields 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.120 much lower, the Fed reserve cutting interest rates quite aggressively, 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:54.360 even more aggressively than what's currently priced, which is already 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:58.680 pretty aggressive, quite frankly. But then there is a chance 0:06:58.720 --> 0:06:59.640 for a reacceleration. 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:00.479 Right, So. 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.640 Even though you know, I think that there's going to 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:07.680 be a recession next year, if I'm wrong, I might 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:10.240 be wrong. The other direction, which is we see a 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:14.000 reacceleration in spending, We see you know, firms not wanting 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.840 to give up their employees because they're worried about retraining 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:20.360 or finding people with the same skills easily. If there 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:23.600 is a rebound, and if we do have a reacceleration 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.320 in the economy and somewhat and inflation starts to tick 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.280 up a little higher, then the Fed is going to 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.800 have to stop very early, right, and that means that 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:33.280 the whole entire treasury market is going to have to 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:37.040 sell off probably twenty five to fifty basis points across 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:41.160 the curve. And if that scenario plays out, so when 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.000 you take like the weighted average of all of these 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:47.160 scenarios is equals of soft landing. But that and that 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:49.680 seems like the one of the least likely outcomes is 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:53.400 that soft landing scenario. More likely we'll have either a 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:56.960 hard landing or a reacceleration. But each of those seems 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:58.560 more plausible to us. 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:00.200 Totally fair, real quick for you. 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.280 Go, But then we get all this inflow of stimulus 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:05.920 from China, and does this kind of offset that impact? 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:06.880 Is it blunt that. 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:09.840 Well, that's one of my concerns and one of the 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:13.400 reasons why you could potentially get a reacceleration with with 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:17.080 central banks globally easing rates like not only China, right, 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:21.160 but you have ECB and the BOE as well as 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:23.760 the FED to reserve all easing interest rates. At the 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:28.239 same time, you do have a global stimulus stimulus going 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:29.559 that's going to be hitting the market. 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:29.680 Now. 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.199 It might take three to six months before we see 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:34.440 any of that in the data, but it is coming 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.400 at some point. And you know, the Fed's going to 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:38.480 cut in November and they're probably going to cut in December, 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:43.400 so that's going to feed into some next year's next 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:45.160 year's outlook for the economy for sure. 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:47.640 All Right, Ira, thanks a lot, really appreciate It's like 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:49.520 the thing we've all been waiting for. We get it, 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.640 and then it may not be so awesome on a 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.200 broad level, Ira, thanks a lot. Ira Jersey having good weekend. 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:57.240 Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest Rates Strategist. 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:02.640 You're listening to the bloom Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:06.240 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:09.040 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:12.240 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:15.400 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:20.720 Alex Steel here alongside Nora Melinda. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:22.680 We bring you all the top news and business, economics 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:24.880 and finance through our lens of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.600 They cover two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:30.400 industries all around the world. We also tap the best 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:34.040 of Bloomberg. And one of those things is this great 0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:37.960 Bloomberg News Morning Console poll. It's a great poll and 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:42.480 it measures all the different aspects of the election. Now, 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.480 in the latest poll of swing states, it shows that 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.480 Vice President Harris Now is leading among likely voters by 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:52.480 seven percentage points. In Nevada, five points in Pennsylvania, three 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.800 points in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and three points in 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:59.640 North Carolina. Both Trump and Harris are tied in Georgia, 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:03.400 US as. Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, can you walk 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:05.400 us through I know I gave the broad strokes, but 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.559 can you walk us through some of your takeaways from 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:07.960 this pole. 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:11.839 Yeah, So Harris is leading in all of these swing states. 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:13.800 So I'll note that those leads are within the margin 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.480 of air. So what that tells us is if this 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:18.200 race is really really close. This is something that we 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:21.160 have seen, you know, across pulling other polls for several 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.400 weeks now, and this is really going to be a 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:25.600 nail bider of a race. And you know that either 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.240 candidate really has the potential to win any of these states, 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:30.440 and the electoral College could down come down to just 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:32.520 one state. You know, one of the ones that being 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.600 most close closely watched right now is Pennsylvania. That's really 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.240 a must win for Harris and the biggest electoral college 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.800 prize of all of these. When you kind of dig 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:42.760 down into the data a little bit further, what is 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.240 sort of one of the key takeaways this month is 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:49.120 that Harris is really cutting into Trump's lead on trust 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:52.600 in the economy. We've pulled every month about how much people, 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:54.760 you know, whether they prefer Trump or Harris or Trump 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:57.360 and Biden on a bunch of different topic issues. You know, 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:00.240 Trump throughout the entire pool has had a lead on 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:03.160 the economy, though Harris has really narrowed that gap. And 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:04.920 that's really come as she started to lay out her 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:10.000 policies on housing, on taxes, on prices, and inflation. So 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.439 this is sort of an indication that some of those 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:15.600 messages are getting through to voters. The other main issue 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:17.439 that voters say is their top their top issue this 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.720 cycle is immigration. On that Trump still holds a pretty 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.160 big lead. So that's where we're You're going to see 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.160 Harris focusing a lot of her attention, you know, including 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.760 today she's headed to Arizona to go to the border. 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:31.640 She'll you know, have a rally in Nevada later on 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.200 the weekend. So you started to see her focus, you know, 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:37.280 the kind of she's tackled the economy. That's something that 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.720 will still see is key to messaging. But now turning 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:40.840 attention to immigration. 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:44.720 Now since Kamala Harris announced her run for presidency back 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.320 in July. Has there been a specific shift at all 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.120 in terms of her lead in the polls. 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.360 Yeah, we have seen her generally cut into Trump's lead, 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:55.280 both the national polls as well as swing state poles 0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:58.800 like the Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll. And on the 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:00.880 issues too, she has you know, inched up, you know, 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:04.120 specifically on the economy, She's grown her lead when it 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:09.200 comes to abortion, housing, democracy, but she she the immigration 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:10.800 is kind of that one key issue where she has 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:14.199 not really made any dent in Trump's lead. 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:14.480 There. 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.000 Uh, this is you know, sort of notable. As you know, 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:19.640 Trump has made a lot of inflammatory statements, including us 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.360 the most recent debate about you know, this unfounded claim 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:25.920 I should note about immigrants in Ohio eating household pets. 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:31.320 In terms of the issues, though, I'm wondering in terms 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.120 of the why do we think that she's gained more 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.240 in the economy, How has she been able to close 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:38.640 a little bit of that gap. 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.040 What we have seen from her campaign really over the 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.800 past four or five weeks is they've been putting out 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.720 different specific policies. So she put out a policy calling 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.080 for an increase of building of housing units, as well 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:54.439 as it down payment assistance for first time homepires. You've 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.160 seen her call for an expanded Chile tax credit. 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:58.240 She's also called for. 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.360 Other tax cuts, including one that dot Trump has also embraced, 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.280 no taxes on tips. She's called for an end to 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:07.240 corporate price gouging and has sort of a fuzzy proposal there. 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.120 We've pulled specifically on some of these policies, and they 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:13.040 are broadly popular, you know, talking you know, more upwards 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.680 of sixty to seventy and in some cases even eighty percent. 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:18.319 So that means that she's winning over not just Democrats, 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.960 but also a decent chunk of Republicans as well, and 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.360 of course independent voters. Those are the people that she 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.280 needs to win over in order to win this election. 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:29.160 So for the average listener, how important are polls in 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:30.000 an election year? 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:35.680 So polls are an important tool, but they you know, 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.440 aren't necessarily you know, one hundred percent predictive. They can 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.600 give you a snapshot of where the race is right now, 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:43.920 and obviously, as we know this year that you know, 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.000 a lot can happen in a couple of weeks and 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.360 really change the contours of this race. So you know, 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:50.280 it's important that this is sort of where the race 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:52.079 is now. There is a margin of air, So it's 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.760 important to not just look at you know, the headline numbers, 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.280 but also you know how much those have fluctuation within them. 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:02.240 Where where does President Trump, a former president Trump still 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.320 pull quite well, like what issues and how does that 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.319 play out in the specific states. 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.360 Yeah, so he you know, really immigration is one where 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.000 he still has a strong lead. He also, you know, 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.040 he still has a lead on the economy, albeit much 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.960 smaller than he used to. Some of his proposals are 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.160 also broadly popular. The most popular issue we pulled this 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:27.000 month was no taxes on Social Security benefits. This is 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:28.840 one that he has you know, trot it out on 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.840 the campaign trail. It's very appealing of course to older voters, 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:33.440 but this is one that you know has broad broad 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:36.600 bipartners and support. He also has a proposal to end 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:40.840 taxes on overtime pay, really very appealing to blue collar workers. 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.400 Some of his other proposals, however, things you know, like 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:47.600 increased tariff He's also talked about increasing the state and 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:50.720 local assualt deduction cap and that's something that he talked 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:52.920 about in New York this past week. You know those 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:55.160 are less popular, you know, more around fifty percent. 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:55.680 Of people like those. 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:59.040 You mentioned Pennsylvania being the grand prize this year. How 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.560 are the two candidates strategizing and trying to tackle that area. 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:06.320 So the airways there are blanketed in ads. When you 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:08.800 look at ads spending from both campaigns, that is where 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:10.680 they are putting you know, if not the majority, at 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.080 least the plurality of their money. So they're spending heavily 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.200 in that state. You also see a lots of visits there. Harris, 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:21.520 you know, very strategically chose Pittsburgh as where she was 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:23.560 going to give her economic address this earlier this week 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:27.160 to talk about, you know, bolstering the industrial economy and 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:31.440 you know, looking at steel and iron manufacturing. Trump will 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.840 see him go there next week. He's planning a rally 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.160 in Butler, Pennsylvania, at the same site where the first 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:40.280 assassinating as fascination attempt was in July. So you've seen 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.160 the candidate spend a lot of time there and spend 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.280 a lot of their money, and that's really kind of 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.440 where you see the bulk of the campaigning happening. 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.320 There has been a lot of criticism around Harris's campaign 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:51.160 that she's a light on details, and I appreciate that 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:53.600 she did give that speech as you reference in Pittsburgh, 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.880 but nonetheless in your poll finding, is that still a problem. 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:01.120 So it shows that she is. We actually asked the 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:03.360 specific question of you know, which Canada described as having 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:07.840 the best detailed policy positions. In August, she was trailing 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:09.920 Trump and then in September she's leading him. You know, 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:11.240 it was the sort of a they were pretty close 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.440 and relatively close, but she has pulled ahead. And part 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.280 of that is she has given more economic speeches and 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:19.120 she also put up a document this week. This is, however, 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:20.680 after the poll was but she put out a big, 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.560 eighty page document that had some more policy details. It 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.720 was still largely a political document, but she puts some 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:29.200 stuff on paper. So these are the kinds of things 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:32.320 her campaign sees it as helping. You know, Trumps has 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.280 done less in terms of like writing out his ideas, 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:36.320 but he's been sort of trotting out idea this week 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:36.640 by week. 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.640 All right, Laura, I really appreciate it. Thank you so much. 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.880 Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics reporter on the latest Bloomberg Morning 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.920 Console poll you're listening to. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.880 The Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live weekdays at ten 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.520 am Eastern on Apple car Play and broyd Otto with 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.600 the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:58.120 your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.360 All right, taking a look at these markets here, Yes, 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:03.720 it feels like we continue to kind of melt up 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:06.600 slash move higher. And I say that because clearly we've 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:08.640 not seen a ton of volume, doesn't feel like there's 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:10.560 a ton of conviction, but yet we keep making record 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:13.080 highs after record highs. The wildcard, though, is what's happening 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.240 with China, And sort of what I'm interested in is 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.480 where the catch up potential is. Quants were caught really 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.560 offside by the move right flows are going to be 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:25.159 caught really offside. CTA's will be caught off side. So 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:27.359 how do you manage all of that? NADIA level is 0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:30.840 senior US equity strategistic global wealth management over at UBS. 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:34.920 How are you looking at the stream of money that's 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:36.960 going to be pumped into the Chinese economy? 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.880 You know, it remains to be seen how that actually 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:45.160 translated into real demand and the real economy. It's not 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:47.760 like the code coming out of COVID. When the COVID 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.000 zero policy was turned off, we sort of flip the 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.920 switch and that helped to reopen the economy. It's going 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:54.760 to take some time for this to filter through to 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.760 the economy, just given the issues in the property market 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.080 over the last couple of years. Yes, you're seeing those 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:04.600 trying to expose stocks catch a bit this week, but 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.880 I think that some of this remains to be seen 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.680 and how that actually translates into profits and. 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.480 On a domestic landscape. That data that we got this morning, 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.680 the inflation data that everyone's looking at. Some people are 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.000 saying that we hit a sweet spot. Others are saying 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:22.560 that this, you know, is just a small thing in 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:24.840 the pipeline. What do you think the impact of this 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.639 data that we saw this morning will have moving forward. 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:32.080 I think the focus right now is more on the 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:35.000 growth data and then necessarily in inflation data. The inflation 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:37.960 data recently has been well. It behaved, came in in 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:41.000 lot of our expectation colle PC at two point seven percent. 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.480 I don't think that was only real surplies to anyone. 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.360 I mean, monetary policy have started to ease. It took 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:48.800 inflation to get this, so that and it will take 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:52.720 the labor market to determine how large the rate cuts 0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:55.200 are going forward. So even though the FAT has said 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.679 it's data dependent, the data is more focused on the 0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:01.679 labor market and less inflation at this point. 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:03.680 So what kind of sector do you like right now? 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.880 Yeah, we continue to light tech just given the AI 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.720 tailwinds that are behind tech. We've gotten a number of 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:15.960 incrementally positive news this week when you look at the 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.920 likes of a centure that goings to continued demand for 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.840 general AI and investments around there, and also even micron 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:27.080 Earns this week that suggests that high bandwid memory chips 0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:29.840 are sold out for twenty twenty four into twenty twenty five, 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:33.160 So we like that story. We also would lean into 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:37.399