WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Michael Purves & Robert D. Kaplan

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea? What's the purpose here? The purpose here

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<v Speaker 2>is you have won two three fifteen twenty minute podcasts

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<v Speaker 2>that you listen to every day. So I said, does

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<v Speaker 2>the world need another twenty minute podcast to listen to

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<v Speaker 2>every day? I don't think so, because everybody's glued to

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<v Speaker 2>Odd Lots, Tracy Loay and Joe Wisenthaler, David Gurr's wonderful

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<v Speaker 2>work with a big take. So what do you need?

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<v Speaker 2>How about a single best idea? Which two ideas? And

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<v Speaker 2>if it's three minutes or four minutes or five minutes, great,

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<v Speaker 2>that's what we do. We're building it out. You know.

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<v Speaker 2>Trying to figure out who to put on today was easy.

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<v Speaker 2>What a wonderful Monday. It was after the Super Bowl,

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<v Speaker 2>way too much football talk. Michael Purvis was with us.

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<v Speaker 2>The highlight was talking about Llban and his wonderful three

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<v Speaker 2>months he spends in New Hampshire. It's like I'm Golden

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<v Speaker 2>Pond with Henry Fonda years ago and Captain Hepburn. Michael

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<v Speaker 2>Purvis was in our studios here in the dead of winter,

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<v Speaker 2>and he talked about the spirit that's out there, not

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<v Speaker 2>real GDP, but GDP plus the inflation component or current

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<v Speaker 2>or nominal GDP.

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<v Speaker 3>Just to put politics to the cipher A second, I

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<v Speaker 3>would say, regard if Harris was president of Preparess, I

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<v Speaker 3>think we have been in the midst of a nominal

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<v Speaker 3>GDP shift that's going higher. There's a lot of structural reasons,

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<v Speaker 3>really nothing to do with COVID or anything like that.

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<v Speaker 3>These are just structural trends that have been that have

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<v Speaker 3>been occurring slowly and steadily. And I think I've been

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<v Speaker 3>very constructive on the economy. I wasn't a hard landing

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<v Speaker 3>guy a year ago, and I'm not a softer hard

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<v Speaker 3>landing effect here. I think what's happening here is we're

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<v Speaker 3>really normalizing to something other than twenty nineteen, twenty eighteen,

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<v Speaker 3>twenty seventeen. I think we're normally back to some other things.

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<v Speaker 3>And there's a lot of structural forces that are going

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<v Speaker 3>to keep inflation from getting to the FEDCE target. But

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<v Speaker 3>also they'll be growth supportive too.

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<v Speaker 2>Can't say enough about this. The great miss call that

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<v Speaker 2>I've observed on Bloomberg surveillance is not understanding growth supportive.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what we've had quarter after quarter, even this weekend,

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<v Speaker 2>I said to myself, what if his growth continues, what

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<v Speaker 2>if we continue with four and a half four point

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<v Speaker 2>eight percent five percent plus nominal GDP. I'm not predicting that.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't have a clue what's going to happen. But

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<v Speaker 2>it's been the great miss call the growthiness out there

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<v Speaker 2>from COVID stimulus and on to perhaps a new productivity.

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Purvis of tallbacking, it's always a surprise to come in.

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<v Speaker 2>I really never look at the schedule. When I come in,

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<v Speaker 2>I sort of like the shock of, oh, this is

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<v Speaker 2>who we've got today. Linda Dissel was on from Federator

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<v Speaker 2>a mess, absolutely spectacular on the need to be in

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<v Speaker 2>the market even if you're scared. Staff, We thank her

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<v Speaker 2>Eagles fan. She celebrated Eric belchun Is emailed in getting

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<v Speaker 2>ready for the Philadelphia Parade down in his Philadelphia. But

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<v Speaker 2>the real honor today was to have Robert T. Kaplin

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<v Speaker 2>with us. My book of the year last year is

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<v Speaker 2>The Loom of Time. It is spectacular. It's a walk

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<v Speaker 2>through Morocco east to Persia. Just a wonderful, wonderful book

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<v Speaker 2>across the Mediterranean, through the Levant to Iran. He made

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<v Speaker 2>very clear. Iran is a key point in his look

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<v Speaker 2>right now. His new book out is waste Land, and

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<v Speaker 2>we talked to him about something that's come up a

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<v Speaker 2>number of times, the destruction of the American middle.

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<v Speaker 4>One of the problems with America in terms of American

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<v Speaker 4>power and America's trajectory is that it is is that

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<v Speaker 4>the center is gone. Rather than a center right and

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<v Speaker 4>the center left governing the country where elect presidential elections

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<v Speaker 4>were not existential, you now have a progressive left and

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<v Speaker 4>a populist right. Neither seems to talk to the other.

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<v Speaker 4>I think after Trump, what you're likely to get is

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<v Speaker 4>another populist right regime, or go back to the progressive left.

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<v Speaker 4>The real story in American politics is the destruction of

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<v Speaker 4>the center, the destruction of the political center, which is

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<v Speaker 4>partly the result of the end of the print and

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<v Speaker 4>typewriter age and the beginning of the digital video era,

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<v Speaker 4>where news is not in the middle nuanced. It's all

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<v Speaker 4>about passion and anxiety and short bursts of simplicity through

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<v Speaker 4>social media.

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<v Speaker 2>Robert Kaplan there out in social and Twitter and LinkedIn.

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<v Speaker 2>In the coming day, in celebration of his new book, Wasteland,

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<v Speaker 2>I'll feature the loom of time waste Landing. He has

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<v Speaker 2>a wonderful book on tyranny, sort of buried from a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of years ago. It's a monograph of one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and ten pages of show feature that on tragedy as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Robert D. Kappan an acclaimed author, And thank you so

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<v Speaker 2>much to Michael Purvis and others today on your commute

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<v Speaker 2>across the nation in Kansas City, in Philadelphia, we're on

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<v Speaker 2>Apple car Play, Android Auto, and Sirius, and of course

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<v Speaker 2>on the Eastern Shore in the Corrider ninety nine one FM,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg eleven three AM and ninety two nine from Aunt

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<v Speaker 2>Cataden down to Block Island. We're on YouTube. Subscribe to

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg podcasts and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.

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<v Speaker 2>N H were including d