1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: Single best idea? What's the purpose here? The purpose here 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: is you have won two three fifteen twenty minute podcasts 4 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 2: that you listen to every day. So I said, does 5 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: the world need another twenty minute podcast to listen to 6 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 2: every day? I don't think so, because everybody's glued to 7 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: Odd Lots, Tracy Loay and Joe Wisenthaler, David Gurr's wonderful 8 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: work with a big take. So what do you need? 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: How about a single best idea? Which two ideas? And 10 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: if it's three minutes or four minutes or five minutes, great, 11 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 2: that's what we do. We're building it out. You know. 12 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: Trying to figure out who to put on today was easy. 13 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: What a wonderful Monday. It was after the Super Bowl, 14 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: way too much football talk. Michael Purvis was with us. 15 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 2: The highlight was talking about Llban and his wonderful three 16 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: months he spends in New Hampshire. It's like I'm Golden 17 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:09,919 Speaker 2: Pond with Henry Fonda years ago and Captain Hepburn. Michael 18 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 2: Purvis was in our studios here in the dead of winter, 19 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 2: and he talked about the spirit that's out there, not 20 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 2: real GDP, but GDP plus the inflation component or current 21 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: or nominal GDP. 22 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 3: Just to put politics to the cipher A second, I 23 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 3: would say, regard if Harris was president of Preparess, I 24 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 3: think we have been in the midst of a nominal 25 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 3: GDP shift that's going higher. There's a lot of structural reasons, 26 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 3: really nothing to do with COVID or anything like that. 27 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 3: These are just structural trends that have been that have 28 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 3: been occurring slowly and steadily. And I think I've been 29 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 3: very constructive on the economy. I wasn't a hard landing 30 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 3: guy a year ago, and I'm not a softer hard 31 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 3: landing effect here. I think what's happening here is we're 32 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 3: really normalizing to something other than twenty nineteen, twenty eighteen, 33 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 3: twenty seventeen. I think we're normally back to some other things. 34 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: And there's a lot of structural forces that are going 35 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: to keep inflation from getting to the FEDCE target. But 36 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 3: also they'll be growth supportive too. 37 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: Can't say enough about this. The great miss call that 38 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 2: I've observed on Bloomberg surveillance is not understanding growth supportive. 39 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 2: That's what we've had quarter after quarter, even this weekend, 40 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 2: I said to myself, what if his growth continues, what 41 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 2: if we continue with four and a half four point 42 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 2: eight percent five percent plus nominal GDP. I'm not predicting that. 43 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 2: I don't have a clue what's going to happen. But 44 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 2: it's been the great miss call the growthiness out there 45 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 2: from COVID stimulus and on to perhaps a new productivity. 46 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: Michael Purvis of tallbacking, it's always a surprise to come in. 47 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: I really never look at the schedule. When I come in, 48 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 2: I sort of like the shock of, oh, this is 49 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 2: who we've got today. Linda Dissel was on from Federator 50 00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: a mess, absolutely spectacular on the need to be in 51 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 2: the market even if you're scared. Staff, We thank her 52 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 2: Eagles fan. She celebrated Eric belchun Is emailed in getting 53 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 2: ready for the Philadelphia Parade down in his Philadelphia. But 54 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: the real honor today was to have Robert T. Kaplin 55 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 2: with us. My book of the year last year is 56 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 2: The Loom of Time. It is spectacular. It's a walk 57 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: through Morocco east to Persia. Just a wonderful, wonderful book 58 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 2: across the Mediterranean, through the Levant to Iran. He made 59 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 2: very clear. Iran is a key point in his look 60 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: right now. His new book out is waste Land, and 61 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 2: we talked to him about something that's come up a 62 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 2: number of times, the destruction of the American middle. 63 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 4: One of the problems with America in terms of American 64 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 4: power and America's trajectory is that it is is that 65 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 4: the center is gone. Rather than a center right and 66 00:03:55,960 --> 00:04:00,839 Speaker 4: the center left governing the country where elect presidential elections 67 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 4: were not existential, you now have a progressive left and 68 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 4: a populist right. Neither seems to talk to the other. 69 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 4: I think after Trump, what you're likely to get is 70 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 4: another populist right regime, or go back to the progressive left. 71 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 4: The real story in American politics is the destruction of 72 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 4: the center, the destruction of the political center, which is 73 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 4: partly the result of the end of the print and 74 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 4: typewriter age and the beginning of the digital video era, 75 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 4: where news is not in the middle nuanced. It's all 76 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 4: about passion and anxiety and short bursts of simplicity through 77 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 4: social media. 78 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan there out in social and Twitter and LinkedIn. 79 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 2: In the coming day, in celebration of his new book, Wasteland, 80 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 2: I'll feature the loom of time waste Landing. He has 81 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 2: a wonderful book on tyranny, sort of buried from a 82 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 2: couple of years ago. It's a monograph of one hundred 83 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 2: and ten pages of show feature that on tragedy as well. 84 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: Robert D. Kappan an acclaimed author, And thank you so 85 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 2: much to Michael Purvis and others today on your commute 86 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: across the nation in Kansas City, in Philadelphia, we're on 87 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 2: Apple car Play, Android Auto, and Sirius, and of course 88 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 2: on the Eastern Shore in the Corrider ninety nine one FM, 89 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven three AM and ninety two nine from Aunt 90 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 2: Cataden down to Block Island. We're on YouTube. Subscribe to 91 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg podcasts and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea. 92 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 2: N H were including d