Speaker 1: You were listening to the Miami Dolphins podcast network. This
Speaker 1: is Drive Time with Travis wheat Field. Back to throw
Speaker 1: to a looking gla wine open touchtop clinic cow, unbelievable,
Speaker 1: just blue fire for a second time. Don't know where
Speaker 1: he was going right away? A hit of that man.
Speaker 1: I want to help you soon up on his way.
Speaker 1: Wattle waddle to a shotgun, back to throw all looking
Speaker 1: stups up fires, totopa, it's waddle. It's six touchdown pa day.
Speaker 1: Drive Time with Travis Winfield begins. Now let me check
Speaker 1: your pulse if none of what is up? Dolphins and
Speaker 1: welcome to the Drift Time Podcast, part of the Miami
Speaker 1: Dolphins podcast networks covering your team, your Miami Dolphins. How's
Speaker 1: it going everybody? I am your host at Travis Wingfield
Speaker 1: and on today's show, it's time to preview week number nineteen.
Speaker 1: Why off. We'll go position by position and look at
Speaker 1: each matchup through the lens of the tape and the stats,
Speaker 1: plus the three keys and twenty three NFL playoff picks.
Speaker 1: All of that and more from the Baptist Health Studios
Speaker 1: inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Drive
Speaker 1: Time Podcast. Three weeks three division rivals on the other
Speaker 1: sideline another week where I don't think an introduction into
Speaker 1: our opponent is necessary. I recall doing this for the
Speaker 1: season finale, and I like doing it again, you know,
Speaker 1: the first time we play each team each year. But honestly,
Speaker 1: the script hasn't really changed that much from Buffalo in
Speaker 1: that game. They were aggressive this offseason and pursuing and
Speaker 1: rounding out a championship level roster, but the biggest piece
Speaker 1: of that, Von Miller is out for the year. But still,
Speaker 1: you know, Da Kuan Jones has been awesome for them,
Speaker 1: James Cook and added element to their offense. But really,
Speaker 1: for the most part, it's just been inherent growth from
Speaker 1: their previous off seasons of good drafting and you know,
Speaker 1: acquiring veteran players that have been big boons for them
Speaker 1: offensively and defensively. They entered the season as Super Bowl favorites,
Speaker 1: and I would imagine they're the postseason favorites as well
Speaker 1: heading into the playoffs. Here, I'm not sure if they
Speaker 1: actually are, but they remain my Super Bowl pick. They
Speaker 1: just have way too many ways to win even if
Speaker 1: they don't play well in you know, significant areas of
Speaker 1: the game. They can strike in a second and flip
Speaker 1: the game, just like we saw on Sunday against the Patriots.
Speaker 1: But they are also a good lesson in the journey
Speaker 1: of an NFL season. I've been trying to get this
Speaker 1: point across from my entire life. It feels like now,
Speaker 1: but they started off as favorites, enter the third season
Speaker 1: as favorites. But recall those dips in the middle of
Speaker 1: the season, the losses to the Vikings and Jets, the
Speaker 1: Lions damn near knocking them off on Thanksgiving. Every team
Speaker 1: every year faces adversity, but the truth is nobody remembers it.
Speaker 1: When you take care of business late. We know they'll
Speaker 1: be motivated it. We know that place will be a madhouse.
Speaker 1: And just real quick on that point. You know the
Speaker 1: The rock Pile Report podcast. Couple of guys that I
Speaker 1: used to do their show all the time before I
Speaker 1: worked for the team, and I remember last year one
Speaker 1: of the co host was upset about the loss to
Speaker 1: Jacksonville say like they might not make the playoffs. Now
Speaker 1: it's like, dude, calm down, You're gonna win the division.
Speaker 1: You'll be just fine. You guys are gonna win your division.
Speaker 1: They're getting to the playoffs, you'll be a force to
Speaker 1: be reckoned with. And sure enough they had the most
Speaker 1: epic playoff game really ever And what did it do
Speaker 1: besides everyone kind of crowned Josh Allen as a new
Speaker 1: great quarterback in the NFL and it put them in
Speaker 1: this position this year where again, why are to wire
Speaker 1: favorites to win the whole damn thing? So perspective understanding,
Speaker 1: the standard that you hold your own team too is
Speaker 1: usually higher than what you hold the rest of the
Speaker 1: league too, because everybody, every team, every player has dips
Speaker 1: and valleys and adversity you have to overcome. These Buffalo Bills,
Speaker 1: who again are a stacked team, have experienced exactly that
Speaker 1: as recently as six weeks ago, and for US third
Speaker 1: playoff games since twent two thousand and one, the last
Speaker 1: two did not go well and uh, you know, a
Speaker 1: home loss after the two thousand eight division title and
Speaker 1: a road loss after winning ten games and earned the
Speaker 1: wild card spot back in. Now it sounds like it's
Speaker 1: gonna be Skyler Thompson will find out later this week
Speaker 1: who for sure is going to be under center. In
Speaker 1: two thousand eight, we had our quarterback and m VP
Speaker 1: runner up in Chad Pennington, but he played his worst
Speaker 1: game of the season against a loaded Ravens defense. Four
Speaker 1: turnovers in that one. But also remember two thousand sixteen,
Speaker 1: no Ryan Tannehill and playing with Matt Moore in a
Speaker 1: game where you're one snap away from the third stream quarterback.
Speaker 1: And my question to Dolphins Nation right now, but does
Speaker 1: anybody remember the quarterback who was going to replace him
Speaker 1: if he couldn't get back in the game and we
Speaker 1: saw him warming up on the sidelines. If you guessed
Speaker 1: t J. Yates, you would be correct. So for Dolphins fans,
Speaker 1: playoff appearances seemed to come with injury riddled quarterback rooms.
Speaker 1: And it's about the most frustrating and just torturous thank
Speaker 1: you can imagine as a football fan, you only get
Speaker 1: so many of these games every year. You get seven
Speaker 1: team for sure, and for Dolphins fans you get bonus
Speaker 1: games really every two presidential campaigns, and the last two
Speaker 1: times you didn't have your starting quarterbacks. So it's I
Speaker 1: can understand the frustration. Um, it is what it is,
Speaker 1: but it definitely sucks. But going back even further in
Speaker 1: the playoff animals with the Miami Dolphins, who recalls the
Speaker 1: nineteen nineties. My first ever podcast appearance was with Sam
Speaker 1: Markup and the guys at perfect Ville, and he would
Speaker 1: always tell me the Bills ruined the nineties for him,
Speaker 1: and that's the case for doll fans of a certain age, right,
Speaker 1: all of all the Dolphins and that kind of you know,
Speaker 1: I guess coming up on I'm a man, I'm forty. Admittedly,
Speaker 1: I don't remember those early nineties seasons very well because
Speaker 1: I am not yet a man. I am not yet
Speaker 1: forty and thirty five. My first real memory was the
Speaker 1: San Diego loss in nine four I was held when
Speaker 1: I've been there six years old. My most vivid one
Speaker 1: was the ninety nine playoffs and the win in Seattle
Speaker 1: followed by the game we don't speak of that came
Speaker 1: after that. But against the Bills. Man, this is a
Speaker 1: I've always had the reason that Dan Marino didn't get
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl ring. It's because of these freaking Bills.
Speaker 1: Divisional round thirty four loss in Buffalo, a f C
Speaker 1: championship here in Miami to ten loss to the Bills
Speaker 1: that would have been such a killer if I remembered it.
Speaker 1: I was only, you know, four years old. Thirty seven,
Speaker 1: twenty two lost in Buffalo and the wild card round,
Speaker 1: and the seventeen win over Buffalo and the wild card
Speaker 1: round before getting stomped by Denver thirty eight three in
Speaker 1: the divisional round. So again, Kelly Marino was the matchup,
Speaker 1: and it still pains me we did not get at
Speaker 1: least one of those wins because the biggest obstacle between
Speaker 1: Marino and his ring was these freaking Buffalo Bills, and
Speaker 1: those were the only ones man. The Bills, you know,
Speaker 1: weren't a regular playoff team during the Dolphins peak in
Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties. So it's three to one in
Speaker 1: favor of Buffalo in the all time playoff series O
Speaker 1: and two in games up in that little town in
Speaker 1: western New York. Enough history, lesson, Let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: get into it. Dolphins offense first, Bill's defense and the
Speaker 1: quarterback in Miami offense versus the defense and safety position
Speaker 1: of the Buffalo Bills. And this we've been over this.
Speaker 1: This is one of the most unique defenses in the
Speaker 1: NFL in terms of their usage, and it's really built
Speaker 1: around one player that allows them to do this, and
Speaker 1: that's te Ron Johnson. It's one of the best players
Speaker 1: in the on the field and calling him a nickel
Speaker 1: or slot cornerback. Would you know it would be entirely
Speaker 1: disingenuous to do that, And we'll cover his game more
Speaker 1: in the cornerback section, but his name is required here
Speaker 1: because of this. They run nickel of the time, less
Speaker 1: than two percent. They run three four or four three
Speaker 1: or dime packages. It's the same defense every time, and
Speaker 1: so that allows you to dictate matchups based upon their personnel.
Speaker 1: And it's why I was confident, if you know, if
Speaker 1: we have all of our parts back, because I think
Speaker 1: the running game, you go twenty one personnel against the
Speaker 1: nickel defense that refuses to get at nickel defense. You
Speaker 1: can still run the ball on that look even without
Speaker 1: you know, Raheem most or even without even without two
Speaker 1: of probably um, but you're gonna have to do it
Speaker 1: well every single play to have a chance in this game.
Speaker 1: They run high safeties like the cover zero three percent
Speaker 1: one high safety too high fifty pc of the time.
Speaker 1: It's a good mix of man and zone. It is
Speaker 1: primarily a zone based defense, but they have up to
Speaker 1: their man coverage after the loss of von miller Um.
Speaker 1: They've also been kind of on and off with rookie
Speaker 1: cornerback Kayer Elam, and I think you know, ideally when
Speaker 1: they have White and him go full speed together, they
Speaker 1: become a better man coverage team. But I don't know
Speaker 1: if you can expect that in a game like this,
Speaker 1: but as always, you do want to be prepared for
Speaker 1: both because you know, White, Dane Jackson, Toron Johnson, Kayer Elam,
Speaker 1: They've all got man in zone skills. It's part of
Speaker 1: that very versatile defense they can run as far as
Speaker 1: what they do postnap, pre snap no versatility nickel defense
Speaker 1: every time, but post snap there's a lot of versatility there.
Speaker 1: They do blitz nine team point four percent of the time,
Speaker 1: which is the tenth lowest rate in the league, but
Speaker 1: their pressure rate is twenty two point four percent, which
Speaker 1: is thirteenth best in the league. And again those numbers
Speaker 1: have fluctuated with the loss of von Miller back in November,
Speaker 1: but they're blitzing more and haven't generated as much pressure
Speaker 1: from their fore man fronts without Vaughn, but it's still
Speaker 1: a key piece of their defense. With Rousseau Epanessa at
Speaker 1: all over all being so dang good, they need to
Speaker 1: pressure with four to really maximize their system for man pressure,
Speaker 1: complex zones, and guys that have played together for a
Speaker 1: long time with really smooth pattern matching and communicating. They
Speaker 1: blitzed us just eight times combined in the two games,
Speaker 1: and that's obviously with a different quarterback back there. But
Speaker 1: if that's the plan again, Skylert Thompson is going to
Speaker 1: have to be super sharp finding openings and attacking the
Speaker 1: opportunities against man coverage when they are in fact there.
Speaker 1: We saw them dial up man a couple of times
Speaker 1: and Tyreek got him on the deep ball and Waddle
Speaker 1: ran across their zone one time, so you know, you
Speaker 1: gotta find your spots. They are uber athletic at the
Speaker 1: linebacker position. They know what they have to contend with
Speaker 1: and Waddle and Hill that paired with their almost never
Speaker 1: changes defense, means again Miami has to successfully run the
Speaker 1: football to win this game. We saw him do it
Speaker 1: last time. Even more important now as you go into
Speaker 1: this game with a rookie quarterback in the lineup, let's
Speaker 1: go ahead and cover this quarterback and safety matchup. It's
Speaker 1: different without Micah Hide all the He did return to
Speaker 1: practice with his twenty one day window opening up. No
Speaker 1: word on if he plays this week. Just guessing here,
Speaker 1: I would imagine Buffalo kind of holds off until next
Speaker 1: week with him, But Jordan Poyer is still They're doing
Speaker 1: great things weekly. He makes plays man Ex Skyler has
Speaker 1: to be sharp, has to identify where number twenty one
Speaker 1: is lined up, not lock onto his target and hold
Speaker 1: him on each each and every single play. It's got
Speaker 1: four more picks this year, another handful of pass breakups.
Speaker 1: He gets four or five picks every single season. Now
Speaker 1: he's playing in that deep center field more often this
Speaker 1: year without Hyde, and I think that limits the true
Speaker 1: strength of their defense with them both in there, and
Speaker 1: they're virtually interchangeable because in Hyde's place was to mar Hamlin,
Speaker 1: who was discharged from the hospital on Wednesday, some more
Speaker 1: great news with him, but replacing him last Sunday. I
Speaker 1: mean they're onto their fourth safety there. It's Dean Marlow.
Speaker 1: Uh you know, Michael Hyde and Hamlin would come in
Speaker 1: on the pass rush quite often, but Hart Marlow has
Speaker 1: just one pass brush rep to point your seventeen this year.
Speaker 1: That's just sixty nine snaps. Nice for Marlow, but um yeah,
Speaker 1: it kind of takes away from their interchangeability there a
Speaker 1: little bit. Where Miami really needs to get after this
Speaker 1: team is wide receiver and tight end versus cornerback. The
Speaker 1: Bills are good in the secondary, but you know, Waddle
Speaker 1: and Tyreek or both top five receivers, and they're gonna
Speaker 1: have to go out and play like it and help
Speaker 1: their quarterback out. We mentioned to Ron Johnson in the open,
Speaker 1: you know, there's only so much you can do to
Speaker 1: get open, and if the ball's not there, it's not there.
Speaker 1: And we saw a Waddle open all game longest the Jets.
Speaker 1: But one of the true Jenga pieces in the NFL
Speaker 1: is to Ron Johnson. He's just so important. I thought
Speaker 1: we saw him match up with Tyreek and Jalen a lot,
Speaker 1: but back in you know, week three, we only saw
Speaker 1: two targets against the two of them, and two more
Speaker 1: targets against the two of them in week fifteen, so
Speaker 1: both Tyreek and Jalan aligning the slot less than twent
Speaker 1: the time. So that's kind of your answer right there,
Speaker 1: that you can dictate the matchup and not put you know,
Speaker 1: your best players on their best corner. But then again,
Speaker 1: Trey White's back too, so it's all kind of you know,
Speaker 1: compounding variables there. But Johnson really helps them kind of
Speaker 1: key their disguises because he switches his roles to the line.
Speaker 1: He'll rush, he'll insert against the run, he'll blow up
Speaker 1: the screen. He's a great player in a second day
Speaker 1: that's been banged up all year. He's leading them in
Speaker 1: coverage snaps by a mile. He's got six hundred fifteen
Speaker 1: and has allowed just six hundred twenty three yards with
Speaker 1: thirty five run stops. Again, he's a very, very good player.
Speaker 1: Dane Jackson has been the third starter when he's been healthy.
Speaker 1: Five hundred and fifty three yards on him on five
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two coverage snaps. That's like ideal two
Speaker 1: picks nine p b U s than of course, Trey
Speaker 1: White was one of the most competitive players you'll find.
Speaker 1: He wants to play physical, he wants to challenge you,
Speaker 1: and he's so dang adept at falling off his man
Speaker 1: and winding up in a place he's not supposed to be,
Speaker 1: so you have to keep an eye out for him.
Speaker 1: Twenty seven. I'm really curious see how they aligned pre snap,
Speaker 1: because this Dolphins offense just gives you so many different
Speaker 1: issues that most teams can't. But on the season, they
Speaker 1: play press just thirty nine percent of the time and
Speaker 1: they're off sixty one percent at the time. The biggest
Speaker 1: thing to me is how do they defend Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: They gave him all the attention back in Week three
Speaker 1: and we saw a waddle rice to the occasion and
Speaker 1: that one. Then we saw both guys make a bunch
Speaker 1: of players back in the week fifteen game. But I
Speaker 1: think that had more to do with the Dolphins running
Speaker 1: game getting owing and then taking advantage of their chances
Speaker 1: when they got them in the passing game. And like
Speaker 1: we say, every single week starts up front right offensive line,
Speaker 1: verse defensive line. Greg Russo has taken a giant step
Speaker 1: forward and with Miller, man like they were tough to stop,
Speaker 1: but they still are. But it's obviously impossible to replace
Speaker 1: a talent like von Miller. But don't get it twisted.
Speaker 1: You still need your best, you know, effort against these guys,
Speaker 1: because listen to these numbers for pressures and run stops.
Speaker 1: Russo forte, Epanessa and twelve lost in twenty and thirteen,
Speaker 1: bash them eighteen and eight. So really it's Rousseau who
Speaker 1: gets the most production. But you know, these are big,
Speaker 1: heavy handed long powerful players that can play through you.
Speaker 1: And Miami whooped their butt in the running game last
Speaker 1: time around, they're gonna have to do it again in
Speaker 1: this game to have a you know, fighter's chance. Um,
Speaker 1: But that's how they play their style. They want to
Speaker 1: play through you on the way to the quarterback and
Speaker 1: helps them play the run as well. But you know,
Speaker 1: if they're gonna play light fronts with that nickel package,
Speaker 1: like shoot man, do you do? You just stay in
Speaker 1: twenty two personnel the entire damn game and run the
Speaker 1: football in every single snap like I don't know? I there? Well,
Speaker 1: so I'm curious to what the plan looks like because
Speaker 1: you're not gonna match points with this team, as you
Speaker 1: heard Mike mcdown talk about in the Wednesday press conference.
Speaker 1: On the interior very good as well, even though Miami
Speaker 1: kicked the crap out of at all over last time around.
Speaker 1: He does lead that group with thirty one pressures and
Speaker 1: nineteen run stops. Day Kwan Jones is right behind him
Speaker 1: with thirty pressures but more run stops with twenty. He's
Speaker 1: been very, very good for them. We know about Jordan Phillips.
Speaker 1: He didn't practice on Wednesday, but nine team pressures and
Speaker 1: thirteen run stops. Then Tim settle eleven and twelve for him,
Speaker 1: those four names and the four off the edge, even
Speaker 1: without Miller, it's as good as it gets. Man inside,
Speaker 1: you know, our power and ability to stay on blocks
Speaker 1: will be tested Oliver's and just an absolute specimen. And
Speaker 1: you know, typically he's one on one and he's a
Speaker 1: tough matchup. But last time Connor Williams and Rob Hunt
Speaker 1: took him to task. His length and get off and countermoves.
Speaker 1: He challenges in every single way. And I thought, you know,
Speaker 1: Oliver didn't play in the Week three game, and I
Speaker 1: wrote in the podcast back then, this is his biggest
Speaker 1: test of the year. Well he matched that with Flying
Speaker 1: Colors Man, so I gotta do that again. We know Phillips,
Speaker 1: he plays his hair on fire, and it's just always
Speaker 1: fired to play against us, the team that drafted him.
Speaker 1: He does like to anticipate the snap count, so hard
Speaker 1: counts always an option against him, but that's sometimes really
Speaker 1: tough in that environment. He will come clean seemingly a
Speaker 1: couple of times a game, so you have to mitigate
Speaker 1: his interior pressure and then settles a great space eater.
Speaker 1: De Kwon Jones one of the most underrated players in
Speaker 1: the league. To me, he's there. Zack Steeler, consistent, tough
Speaker 1: to move, makes a splash player to every single game,
Speaker 1: and then off the edge. They certainly have that type right,
Speaker 1: heavy handed long pass rushers who can collapse the pocket.
Speaker 1: Our quarterback Skyler are gonna have to be able to
Speaker 1: move within the pocket because they tend to not really
Speaker 1: offer up escape hatches with how infrequently blitz and how
Speaker 1: athletic the linebackers are, and they're good safeties as well,
Speaker 1: so suddenly being mobile in the pocket but still winning
Speaker 1: from the pocket are going to be big keys for
Speaker 1: Sky Thompson in this game. Running backs and linebackers. Matt
Speaker 1: Milano legit defensive Player of the Year candidate. The way
Speaker 1: he's played, he just kind of keys everything, and uh
Speaker 1: is your disguise buster as it were. He's a critical
Speaker 1: piece of that defense, especially against an offense that wants
Speaker 1: to create hesitation through you know, multiple conflict defenders. Tremaine
Speaker 1: Edmonds lengthy, fast, explosive like the linebackers that gave us
Speaker 1: issues earlier in the season. Second most rushing yards of
Speaker 1: bills allowed this year, though, was that Week fifteen game.
Speaker 1: Miami needs more of that. The backs. I think we
Speaker 1: need a big game both in the passing game and
Speaker 1: as ball carriers. We mentioned the minimal blitz, is you
Speaker 1: know see that and get out into the pattern or
Speaker 1: if they come help us, you know, Skyler, get that
Speaker 1: extra half second to find holes left in the coverage
Speaker 1: from the blitz. Big, big game, and I can't wait
Speaker 1: to see either side's playing here offensively and defensively. And
Speaker 1: speaking of that, let's go ahead and take our first
Speaker 1: break and come back on the other side and do
Speaker 1: Dolphins defense versus Bill's offense. That's next Drivetime Podcast, your
Speaker 1: host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. Back
Speaker 1: here on a Thursday edition of the Drivetime Podcast. Matt
Speaker 1: sucks without Monday Night and Thursday Night football, And we're
Speaker 1: getting close to the end here man to the worst
Speaker 1: part of the calendar. Go Mariners, though, coming up, go
Speaker 1: Heat on the stretch run. That was a fun game
Speaker 1: against Okay se either the not uh Dolphins defense Bills offense.
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and start with their personnel, which has
Speaker 1: changed a lot from the last couple of years. UH
Speaker 1: they run eleven personnel. The bread and butter of the
Speaker 1: NFL one back, one tight end, three receivers sixty percent
Speaker 1: of the time, nice four percent out of twelve personnel,
Speaker 1: fourteen percent out of twenty one personnel. And then they
Speaker 1: run two backs, two tights. That's twenty two personnel three
Speaker 1: percent of the time, and they have some work out
Speaker 1: of ten one Do you guys know what that means?
Speaker 1: Ten personnel, one back, no tight ends, four receivers. It's
Speaker 1: always running back, tight end and then the leftover number
Speaker 1: is your eligible receivers. Just interesting adaptation going from Brian
Speaker 1: Dabal to Ken Dorsey and he's up for some potential
Speaker 1: interviews for head coaching jobs as well this year. Um,
Speaker 1: but just the complete absence of ten personnel this year,
Speaker 1: that's a grouping that almost nobody eclipses one percent in annually,
Speaker 1: but the last couple of years it was always that
Speaker 1: way for all but two teams Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals and
Speaker 1: Barfe Larber. But they're incorporating a fullback and going into
Speaker 1: the complete opposite direction of that with Reggie Gilliam Dawson
Speaker 1: Knox also a big part of that. To counter how
Speaker 1: teams have played the Bills is a big part of that,
Speaker 1: as well, and it helps them get digs into one
Speaker 1: on one situations and create more space for him, or
Speaker 1: you double him and then you get Mitch Matches on
Speaker 1: explosive backs and Dawson Knox, So it's kind of pick
Speaker 1: your poison. Offense are loaded. Josh Allen has the longest
Speaker 1: time to throw in the NFL among quarterbacks that played
Speaker 1: the majority of the year, two point eight eight seconds
Speaker 1: and gosh, fifty seven scrambles this year. Uh, and he's
Speaker 1: been their best runner. He's the entire offense goes to
Speaker 1: this guy, and it's I mean, can you make him
Speaker 1: have a bad game? It's tough to do. Even when
Speaker 1: he has bad games, he still finds a way to
Speaker 1: put points on the board because he's so explosive. His
Speaker 1: blitz splits. That's a fun phrasing to say. Blitz splits
Speaker 1: are fascinating to me. This year. When he's blitz which
Speaker 1: is twenty eight and a half percent of his dropbacks
Speaker 1: this year, he's only fifty six percent for six point
Speaker 1: one yards, nine touchdowns and four picks. When he's not blitzed,
Speaker 1: which is seventy one point five percent of his dbs
Speaker 1: sixties six point three percent completion so a ten percent
Speaker 1: increase um. I put the yardage total, not the y
Speaker 1: PA in here, three thousand, two hundred and seventy seven yards. Pretty,
Speaker 1: let's let's go ahead and pose it and get that
Speaker 1: number four you real quick, and we're back. It's eight
Speaker 1: point two yards per attempts, so a two point one
Speaker 1: average yards per attempt increase when he's not blitzed. Twenty
Speaker 1: six touchdowns and ten picks, so it's like he turns
Speaker 1: it over a lot when you don't blitz him, because
Speaker 1: a lot of those picks come from him kind of
Speaker 1: like standing back there and scanning and surveying and then
Speaker 1: just missing somebody. And again talking about holding your own
Speaker 1: team to the same standards everybody else, Like this quarterback
Speaker 1: misses a lot of throws. All quarterbacks missed throws, but
Speaker 1: he misses his plenty. And again, where he makes up
Speaker 1: is the fact that he's so special otherwise all those
Speaker 1: physical traits, but he's you know, he's not ineffective against
Speaker 1: pressure whatsoever. In the only quarterback that was a higher
Speaker 1: rated passer against pressure than two of this year was
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. You can win on first and second down,
Speaker 1: he can miss both those throws even but then on
Speaker 1: third down hill absorb you know, a squared up pass,
Speaker 1: rush shot from a rusher, stay on his feet, break
Speaker 1: the pocket, spin hurdle, have a guy hanging off his
Speaker 1: shoulder pads, and the rip one forty yards down the
Speaker 1: field of Stefon digs right on the face mask because
Speaker 1: he's falling to the turf. It's just insane what he's
Speaker 1: capable of doing. He's the best playmaker the sport has
Speaker 1: and that's the book from his time. You know at
Speaker 1: Wyoming right, he was always a fun, fun watch just
Speaker 1: carrying that offense despite some drops and breakdowns and no
Speaker 1: run game, he's just wills his way to big plays
Speaker 1: and gets points on the board. And now as a pro,
Speaker 1: same situation, he's dialed it in and this year he's
Speaker 1: taking his game to another level where teams are, you know,
Speaker 1: playing kind of that Josh Bolier Week three game plan,
Speaker 1: like making be patient they can play the position because
Speaker 1: again he puts the ball in harm's way, but you
Speaker 1: have to capitalize on those. So I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: it's it's tricky. I don't know how you want to
Speaker 1: play this. Dude. To me, you have to find a
Speaker 1: way to create big plays and just gamble with it
Speaker 1: because of your situation on offense, the quarterback situation, you
Speaker 1: have to find a way. I turned this game on
Speaker 1: its head multiple times, and so maybe that's blitzing. Maybe
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's gonna be a tough, tough, tall order,
Speaker 1: and I'm glad it's not my job to come up
Speaker 1: with that decision. His deep throws this year fourteen point
Speaker 1: six percent of his throws or twenty plus yards downfield,
Speaker 1: averaging fourteen point two yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns
Speaker 1: and five picks, So not his usual downfield prowess. My
Speaker 1: key here is this. He's tied for the second most
Speaker 1: interceptions in the NFL, and he has more turnover worthy plays,
Speaker 1: which is a PF stat than any other quarterback, which
Speaker 1: means teams aren't capitalizing on his takeaway opportunities. And again
Speaker 1: it's most of the time doesn't matter because he can
Speaker 1: give you one quarter of football and just put you away.
Speaker 1: But it seems like every time we play this damn dude,
Speaker 1: we have opportunities that we just don't take advantage of.
Speaker 1: Going back toy, like how many missed picks in that game?
Speaker 1: Because I talked about it yesterday. Beca Aban Howard and
Speaker 1: Kyle Van Noi both had picks in their hands that
Speaker 1: could have changed that game entirely and just didn't make
Speaker 1: the catch. So you must intercept the ball when you
Speaker 1: get the chance to do so. Good offenses plus more
Speaker 1: opportunities equals disaster. Simple formula we discussed here a few times.
Speaker 1: Don't give the New York Yankees four outs on offense
Speaker 1: or I should say Houston Astros right. Javon Holland, as
Speaker 1: often as he is, is the catalyst to me here,
Speaker 1: does a great job of limiting opposing teams deep passing.
Speaker 1: He inserts off the edge as a rusher against the run.
Speaker 1: We saw him spy up on Alan for a huge
Speaker 1: open field tackle short of the sticks on that third
Speaker 1: down playback in Buffalo a couple of weeks ago. The
Speaker 1: ability of the Bills to get to you know, anything
Speaker 1: from any personnel, deep shots from twenty two, run game
Speaker 1: from ten, and everything in between some modern style offense
Speaker 1: that Javon Hollands built to defend. So in the current NFL,
Speaker 1: blitzing the top blind quarterbacks usually equals instant death. Right,
Speaker 1: they'll find it and they'll carve you up. Before you
Speaker 1: can even you know, get pressure by finding the vacancy
Speaker 1: and coverage. And we saw that back in week three,
Speaker 1: and we talked about the numbers in the podcast yesterday,
Speaker 1: but since week nine, here's some interesting numbers for you.
Speaker 1: Forty sixty eight versus the Blitz, it's fifty eight percent,
Speaker 1: five point four yards per passing, three touchdowns, and that
Speaker 1: includes a game against Miami where he was better against
Speaker 1: the Blitz than not. So it's sort of like, again,
Speaker 1: I don't know what you do here. I really don't, uh.
Speaker 1: I laugh while saying this, because it's like you put
Speaker 1: the pros and cons up there, and there are plenty
Speaker 1: of both. I just think it's a tough, tough decision.
Speaker 1: And again, why you pay these coaches the big bucks
Speaker 1: to come up with a plan against a guy like this.
Speaker 1: If they can, you know, find a hero plan that
Speaker 1: beats this Buffalo Bills team, then you know, build damn
Speaker 1: statues with these guys. Because it's a Toller. This week
Speaker 1: mentioned Javon Hallen in the passing game Plann. Let's go
Speaker 1: ahead and move on to the next portion of the
Speaker 1: Buffalo offense, that is the receivers and tight ends. First,
Speaker 1: the Miami corners, and this is probably the toughest match
Speaker 1: up against this Bill's offense. Their top heavy, but they're
Speaker 1: also deep. There are diverse, and they match and play
Speaker 1: style of their quarterback as well as anybody in the
Speaker 1: NFL maybe besides Miami. It's super intriguing because Alan holds
Speaker 1: the ball in big play hunts more than any other quarterback.
Speaker 1: But Miami has been getting home with pressure, among the
Speaker 1: best teams in the NFL just having to finish those pressures,
Speaker 1: and this guy is the toughest one to finish off
Speaker 1: in the entire league. So does Alan take up the
Speaker 1: quick hitters and just eat up short complations with the
Speaker 1: ocasional deep shot built in, or does he play that
Speaker 1: true you know, his true style and just bank on
Speaker 1: making rushers missed like he wants to do. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs is one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Speaker 1: There aren't many quarterbacks who can match up better one
Speaker 1: on one and remove him from the game than Xavian Howard,
Speaker 1: and he did that pretty well back in Week three.
Speaker 1: You know, Diggs had seven for seventy four, which she says,
Speaker 1: that's a pretty good game. Travis well, yeah, just ten
Speaker 1: point six yards per catch eleven targets. That's that's a
Speaker 1: good number yards per target wise less than seven per target.
Speaker 1: I guess the guy who averages around ten this season.
Speaker 1: And there was you know that one long play to
Speaker 1: open the game twenty eight yards back for that just
Speaker 1: six forty six It's really dang good, especially if it
Speaker 1: gets that picked before the end of the first half
Speaker 1: and takes it back. Now, he did get routes on
Speaker 1: six players, but X only saw only X on more
Speaker 1: than one target. I should say they were three for
Speaker 1: five for forty seven yards going elsewhere. That feels with
Speaker 1: the play here, and the script was pretty similar in
Speaker 1: week fifteen. Like in a game like this, you needs
Speaker 1: your best to beat their best. But again, matchups like
Speaker 1: this are never gonna be one pcent in the game.
Speaker 1: But if you want to have a chance, you've got
Speaker 1: you have to have Tyreek, you know, beating Trey White.
Speaker 1: You have to have ex beating Stefon Diggs. You have
Speaker 1: to have Christian Wilkins beating Mitch Morrise. These have to
Speaker 1: be consistent things you went across the board to mitigate
Speaker 1: from what you you're losing from injuries, Buffalo again, they're
Speaker 1: deep though, so you need your answer for Gabe Davis,
Speaker 1: who is one of the best downfield threats you know,
Speaker 1: in in a sizeable body, tremendous feel, an excellent route
Speaker 1: runner in terms of setting guys up on double moves,
Speaker 1: precise movements to get action on that first move and
Speaker 1: then springing to the second level. And when Alan breaks
Speaker 1: the pocket, he loves to find these two dudes getting
Speaker 1: vertical down the field. John Brown's back in the fold
Speaker 1: catching long touchdowns. So you know, for Gabe Davis, I
Speaker 1: think kator Co who is the best one on him,
Speaker 1: because he's the most physical corner we have right now,
Speaker 1: and those seem to be like the right man matchups.
Speaker 1: But again it varies plenty of zone and match so
Speaker 1: we'll see. But plastering again when when Alan scrambles huge
Speaker 1: key this week, Isaiah mackenzie does all kinds of creative
Speaker 1: stuff with jet sweeps and screens and catches the football,
Speaker 1: you know, running downhill on mesh. He's kind of a
Speaker 1: glue piece and that nobody does what he can do.
Speaker 1: Then you've got Dawson Knox and to me as an
Speaker 1: Eric Row game to come dust off that tight end
Speaker 1: e racer label. He didn't play last time around. It
Speaker 1: was a big issue for us. You know, He's done
Speaker 1: so much both in coverage and against the run from
Speaker 1: that position. And Knox is a tough task man, tall order,
Speaker 1: but you're gonna have to, you know, give up plays
Speaker 1: these guys. But I cannot emphasize enough the importance of
Speaker 1: capitalizing on the plays that are there. And the Bills
Speaker 1: losses this season, that's been the difference for them. They
Speaker 1: turned the ball over as teams capitalize on those opportunities.
Speaker 1: Offensive line, defensive line. The Dolphin's pass rush continues to
Speaker 1: heat up opposing quarterbacks, uh really quickly. But again, those
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are mitigating that by getting the ball out to
Speaker 1: the open guy early, and they've been open early too often.
Speaker 1: But the past rush has been relentless all year. Man
Speaker 1: Phillip has been tremendous. Wilkins has been as good as
Speaker 1: anybody in football at his position. You know, Melvin Ingram
Speaker 1: has been efficient. Bradley Chubb, you know, got back onto
Speaker 1: the field a limited role last week and he's been effective.
Speaker 1: And then Andrew van Ginkl just solid his entire career.
Speaker 1: It's hard to get press rush production guys for the
Speaker 1: balls out in less than two and a half seconds.
Speaker 1: It is very, very difficult. They did have Alan under
Speaker 1: constant arrest that Week three game and just forced the
Speaker 1: ball out all game long, and at the end of
Speaker 1: it it was too much for the Bills to muster
Speaker 1: up more than seventeen points offensively. In Week fifteen, he
Speaker 1: made a splash plays early, the one at the end
Speaker 1: of the half that was like, Oh, they're gonna get
Speaker 1: a field goal. Oh no, now they're not gonna get anything.
Speaker 1: Always a touchdown there you go. And then the fourth
Speaker 1: quarter he did what he does usually and put on
Speaker 1: the Josh Allen cape. But Miami did well to stifle
Speaker 1: him in the Bill's offense for long periods in both games.
Speaker 1: Can you extend that for four quarters? You have to.
Speaker 1: This week comes down to that. Uh. Their offensive line
Speaker 1: pressures allowed and pass blocking snaps. Dion Dawkins left tackle
Speaker 1: thirty at six six, Roger Staffold thirty six pressures allowed
Speaker 1: at six snaps play. That is a big number for
Speaker 1: a guard, so go get him. Mitch Moore's seventeen on
Speaker 1: four three. Uh, Ryan Bates excuse me, twenty eight pressures
Speaker 1: six and fifteen snaps the pretty big number there for
Speaker 1: a guard too, and then Spencer Brown forty two at
Speaker 1: five fifty one. The offensive lines vulnerable and we saw
Speaker 1: the Dolphins again put pressure on Allen that Week fifteen game.
Speaker 1: You have you have to win every other matchup in
Speaker 1: this game. It's how it's gonna go like, It's how
Speaker 1: you're gonna be a team that I think it's like
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half, you know, uh advantage right now.
Speaker 1: Dawkins one of the best left tackles in the NFL.
Speaker 1: He missed one game and some change and it was
Speaker 1: a noticeable difference when they didn't have him out there.
Speaker 1: Any wins you get on him or a bonus. That's
Speaker 1: why you pay Bradley Chubb the big bucks, Like, you know,
Speaker 1: go go beat that dude on the other side. Phillips,
Speaker 1: I just think is one of the best player in league.
Speaker 1: Keeps getting better every single week. Um made some plays
Speaker 1: back in week three and had that massive force fumble
Speaker 1: back in week fifteen, and then Wilkins just wins regardless
Speaker 1: of who's across from him. So hopefully you know you
Speaker 1: can pair pass rush wins on the same snap frequently.
Speaker 1: You know, with all the guys, running backs and linebackers. Finally,
Speaker 1: another position where the bills are just extremely multiple. James
Speaker 1: Coke explosive, is all get out. Devin Singletary love his game.
Speaker 1: They're both right around three yards average after initial contact.
Speaker 1: Thirty three miss tackles force for Singletary, nineteen for Cook.
Speaker 1: They're both dynamic passing game options and good outlets when
Speaker 1: Alan gets that multiple rusher pressure. When they play patient,
Speaker 1: get the ball to the acts in the passing game,
Speaker 1: and play a run the ball effectively, they are impossible
Speaker 1: to stop. So if you have to mitigate that somehow,
Speaker 1: I've been so impressed with how Jerome Baker plays in
Speaker 1: situations like these because he has multiple roles. You have
Speaker 1: to have him do that again. You have to have
Speaker 1: Duke Riley have a big game because speed's key against
Speaker 1: this offense. Ken Dorsey's offense is so creative, has false
Speaker 1: keys and can bump the ball to any of the
Speaker 1: eligible So you need all the linebackers here to be
Speaker 1: really pumping on all cylinders. Let's go ahead and take
Speaker 1: our last break and come back on the other side
Speaker 1: and do special teams and the three keys and what's
Speaker 1: at stake. Even though you already know will also pick
Speaker 1: the playoff bracket. That's next Draft Time podcast, your host
Speaker 1: Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation, coming to
Speaker 1: a conclusion on potentially the final preview podcast of the season.
Speaker 1: That was the case last week. We're glad that it
Speaker 1: is not. We have at least one more here to
Speaker 1: get to Special Teams d v o A ranks this
Speaker 1: year in Miami's twenty Buffaloes first, whoops, yikes, that could
Speaker 1: be rough. Tyler Bass is seven for thirty one this year.
Speaker 1: He's missed two of his fifty p e T s.
Speaker 1: I was updating the numbers from the last podcast and
Speaker 1: like he's only kicked like five more field goals since
Speaker 1: that game, but has booted like four s And then
Speaker 1: in the interim, Sam Martin averages forty two point one
Speaker 1: gross with an inside the twenty yard line rate of
Speaker 1: thirty and a touchback rate of eleven percent. Jason Sanders
Speaker 1: coming off a playoff clinching field goal, he has for
Speaker 1: thirty two this year, and Thomas moore Stead's gross is
Speaker 1: forty point five with an inside that twenty yard line
Speaker 1: rate of forty percent and a touchback rate of just
Speaker 1: three point three percent. What's at stake? You might ask,
Speaker 1: that seems pointless this week, doesn't it. We all know
Speaker 1: exactly what's his take the entire damn season. Man three
Speaker 1: keys in the game capitalize on takeaway opportunities. The Bills
Speaker 1: have put the ball on the turf six times in
Speaker 1: the two games. We recovered one of those fumbles. If
Speaker 1: they fumble the ball three times, we recover it three times.
Speaker 1: Maybe you have a fighter's chance. Number two, ride the
Speaker 1: running backs, same game, running game. Jeff Wilson, Savannakhmed if
Speaker 1: for him can go raheem, just it's time for those
Speaker 1: guys to, you know, carry the load. And there was
Speaker 1: a game Chiefs and Titaness this year. Malik Willow started
Speaker 1: the game and they couldn't do anything through the air,
Speaker 1: and they damned near beat the Chiefs. That's to me,
Speaker 1: that's the only way you're gonna have a chance in
Speaker 1: this game is to muddy it up like that. And
Speaker 1: so the running game is going to be paramount if
Speaker 1: that's the case. Number three, keep Alan in the pocket.
Speaker 1: If he gets outside the pocket and runs the ball,
Speaker 1: you can go for forty yards at a clip. He
Speaker 1: runs the guys over. Just don't let him do that,
Speaker 1: because he'll kill you that way. As for picks twelve
Speaker 1: and four last week means I got to the goal.
Speaker 1: I think that goal change like three times, though, so
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's actually achievement. One nine, eight
Speaker 1: and two two seventy one games in the books, Buffalo
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati obviously number two seventy two. They did not
Speaker 1: get played good for a seven oh three win percentage.
Speaker 1: Next year, we'll go to seventy will be the goal
Speaker 1: next year. That would have been nice in the fiftieth anniversary,
Speaker 1: But I digress. So here's what we'll do for the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you my entire bracket, but we'll also
Speaker 1: still pick the game aimes each week after the fact,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna give you almost all chalk here. I
Speaker 1: know upsets happened every single year, but man, I'm having
Speaker 1: a hard time finding them this time around, especially with
Speaker 1: the quarterbacks that are out in the wild card round.
Speaker 1: It's weird because in the middle of the year it
Speaker 1: felt like it was going to be as wide open
Speaker 1: as it ever was. Remember the round the NFL podcast
Speaker 1: kept doing like is anybody good in the NFL? Who's good?
Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, now you kind of have it figured out,
Speaker 1: because pretty consensus, casey, Buffalo and Cincinnati are the teams
Speaker 1: to beat in the a f C Philly and Frisco.
Speaker 1: In the NFC. Maybe Dallas, but you know, after losing
Speaker 1: to Washington that certainly losing some of it shine there.
Speaker 1: Wild Card round picks, I have one upset near. I
Speaker 1: did have Baltimore over the Bengals, but I changed it
Speaker 1: because Lamar Jackson is probably not gonna play. The hell's
Speaker 1: going on there by the way, I don't know. I
Speaker 1: don't know. Wild Card round Niners over Seahawks seems pretty
Speaker 1: pretty expected. Jacksonville over the Charges. This almost tough because
Speaker 1: I don't really think either team is that great. Ah,
Speaker 1: but someone's gotta win, and I like the home team
Speaker 1: against a quarterback that I think doesn't necessarily raise his
Speaker 1: game in these types of situations. Buffalo over Miami. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Minnesota over the Giants a stinker of a game that
Speaker 1: feels like Bengals over Ravens and Cowboys over bucks Man.
Speaker 1: This is a bad slate. If if we had two
Speaker 1: and Lamar it would be good, but we don't, so
Speaker 1: it's not. Uh. And then from their divisional round Niners
Speaker 1: over the Vikings, Eagles over the Cowboys, Bills over the Bungles,
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs over the Jags. Chalk Man, Buffalo over Casey,
Speaker 1: and the championship round Philly over San Francisco. And this
Speaker 1: is my super Bowl pick back in August, so Zero
Speaker 1: sent in changing it now, Buffalo over the Eagles. I
Speaker 1: hope not man. I hope they keep on losing super bowls.
Speaker 1: We're not getting to the super Bowl. That's that's what
Speaker 1: I would like to see. But we'll see, We'll see
Speaker 1: what happens. That's your Thursday preview podcast tomorrow. Joe Marino
Speaker 1: locked on Bills a legend around these parts, one of
Speaker 1: the best billsh coverage guys there is. I just love
Speaker 1: everything that he does with football, and we'll have him
Speaker 1: back on for the draft season as well. But he's
Speaker 1: gonna break down Dolphins and Bills for us tomorrow. In
Speaker 1: the meantime, it's gonna be my time you all. Please
Speaker 1: be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcast.
Speaker 1: Leave us a rating, leave us a review. Follow me
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Speaker 1: up Caroline and Cameron Daddy's coming over