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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I can just.

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Speaker 3: About that action all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go probably throwing out. We're sitting up to cash, touchtop.

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Speaker 2: That's all we'll see. Most gamble is ships.

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Speaker 3: When they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible,

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Speaker 3: big bank. All right, this is the ultimate combining and

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Speaker 3: you want to fall.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway? What's if?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. This is our NFL Week

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Speaker 4: eleven betting preview. We're gonna talk side totals, props, moneyline, underdogs,

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Speaker 4: anytime touchdowns, and of course we'll build our Sunday six

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Speaker 4: pack of against these spread bets with to help with

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Speaker 4: my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: How's it going?

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Speaker 4: Uh? We I think gained a point or two on

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Speaker 4: you last week, but overall kind of break even for

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Speaker 4: the pod.

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Speaker 3: How are you feeling?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Thanks to me. I mean that was probably my

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Speaker 2: worst Sunday I've ever had bet in the NFL, because

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Speaker 2: I mean I've had worst days losing money, lost more money,

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Speaker 2: but I bet like I bet the Falcons early in

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Speaker 2: the week before the Gardener News, So I had plus

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Speaker 2: six there, so I didn't get the best of the

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Speaker 2: number that pushes in overtime. I bet the Ravens first

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Speaker 2: half and they just kick a bunch of field goals

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Speaker 2: and then they end up covering the full game and

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Speaker 2: then just a couple of terrible calls on top of that.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it was a bad week for the pod

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Speaker 2: for me, all good things must come to an end

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Speaker 2: at least, I mean if we could get the money

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Speaker 2: line parlay home, which is nice. Total was pretty easy,

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Speaker 2: but a bad week. But as always cares for on

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Speaker 2: the next week, time to start another run.

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Speaker 4: First of all, any quick thoughts over to the six

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Speaker 4: pack and a second, bady quick thoughts on the Jets

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Speaker 4: and the Patriots to spread is up to thirteen. The

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Speaker 4: total is forty three. Patriots have been playing really well.

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Speaker 4: Jets through for fifty four yards last week.

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Speaker 2: Thursday Night Football. Yeah, I mean I can't get to

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Speaker 2: this number. I mean what the Patriots a month ago were?

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Speaker 2: What lengths seven to the Titans at home. They've obviously

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Speaker 2: just risen up the power ratings since. But I can't

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Speaker 2: get this high, So I can't. I can't bet the

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Speaker 2: Patriots but I also can't bet the Jets. There's a

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Speaker 2: number of reasons, just matchup reasons. Got to throw on

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Speaker 2: the Patriots, can't run on them, How are the Jets

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Speaker 2: going to move the ball? And now you might see

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Speaker 2: the loss of like last week it didn't matter as

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Speaker 2: much against the Browns, but the loss of Gardner, the

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Speaker 2: loss of Williams against this Patriots offense and they'll be

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Speaker 2: able to hit some explosive plays. The Drake made deep

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Speaker 2: ball right now is just a cheat code. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: and then also your first time head coaches on Thursday

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Speaker 2: night football of historically been extremely poor straight up and

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Speaker 2: against the spread, kind of just like you got to

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Speaker 2: prepare a team for a short week and they're not

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Speaker 2: used to it, so there could be some signal there.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's just noise, but it's mainly a matchup thing,

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Speaker 2: like you can't run the ball on the Patriots, you

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Speaker 2: gotta throw on them. Jets can't throw no Wilson either,

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Speaker 2: How are they moving the ball? How are they keeping up?

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Speaker 2: And now you have your two of your best players

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Speaker 2: you traded away and that might show up here. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: matchup spot screams Patriots, but price matters, so probably sit

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Speaker 2: on the sidelines. The one case I would make for

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Speaker 2: the the Jets, like how I could see the Jets

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Speaker 2: covering I mean, eventually this team's going to get to

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Speaker 2: a turnover too. It's getting like insane, like they have

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Speaker 2: they are minus ten turnover marchin on the season. They

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Speaker 2: don't have an interception. I believe there's only the second

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Speaker 2: team with no interceptions at this point in the season.

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Speaker 2: Over the past twenty five years, they fumbled at ten times,

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Speaker 2: lost seven. Their opponents have fumbled at nine times, only

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Speaker 2: lost one. Like, if there's a team that's due for

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Speaker 2: a couple of bounces, it's the Jets. So you know,

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Speaker 2: if you get a couple turnovers here, probably in good

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Speaker 2: shape or have a pretty good shot to cover you know,

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Speaker 2: thirteen in a divisional game on the road with a

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Speaker 2: low total. But that's like the only case I can

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Speaker 2: make is just like turnover regression, because everything else from

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Speaker 2: a matchup perspective screams Patriots. So with the price where

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Speaker 2: it is, I just can't get there on New England.

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Speaker 2: So it's probably a pass.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I can.

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Speaker 4: I maybe look into Jets team total under something like that.

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Speaker 4: You know, Jets were actually popping in our luck rankings.

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Speaker 4: I believed for the past months.

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Speaker 3: I don't. They're not a luckside this week.

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Speaker 4: And it's probably because they had wangu and Williams, you know,

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Speaker 4: two guys that I think our two of the better

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Speaker 4: tournament in the league score against the Browns, and now

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Speaker 4: you're probably not getting that even if you know you

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Speaker 4: get some turnover, just like what you said, how are

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Speaker 4: you gonna score?

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's probably just a passer fourteen.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if it keeps going at fourteen, I might

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Speaker 2: have to take a small bet on the Jets just

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Speaker 2: from a numbers perspective. Maybe that's getting that's a little.

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Speaker 1: Crazy, thirsty for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, six pack thirty five twenty six, still got

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Speaker 4: a lot of work to do.

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Speaker 3: You're up first, but yeah, you're going all right.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the week, eleven Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus three at home

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Speaker 2: against the Chicago Bears. I just number one. I think

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Speaker 2: this line should be three and a half, and I

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Speaker 2: think it would be three and a half if the

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Speaker 2: Bears didn't have four crazy comebacks over the Giants. When

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Speaker 2: Dark got hurt. The Bengals, a luckbox win over the

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Speaker 2: Raiders by one, and a luckbox win over the Commanders

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Speaker 2: by one. There's six and three that easily could be

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Speaker 2: three and six. I mean this team has basically just

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Speaker 2: benefited from turnover luck. On defense. They're plus fourteen on

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Speaker 2: the season. They have eight fumbles only lost two. Opponents

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Speaker 2: have nine fumbles lost seven. If you remove turnovers, this

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Speaker 2: bears defense, especially without Gordon and Johnson, They're thirtieth in

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Speaker 2: EPA per play. They're basically right at the same level

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Speaker 2: as the Bengals and Cowboys, who are historically bad. They're

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Speaker 2: thirty first can drop back EPA and if you remove

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Speaker 2: turnovers or early downs early down EPA dead last in

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Speaker 2: the league, which is more predictive no turnovers, early downs.

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Speaker 2: They're worse than the Bengals, worse than the Cowboys. And

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Speaker 2: I mean Caleb has been much better this year than

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Speaker 2: last year, but I mean he's faced the Giants, the Saints,

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys, the Raiders, the Commanders, the Bengals. I mean,

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Speaker 2: these are the six worst defenses in the league. Those

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Speaker 2: basically are their wins this year. They have a thirty

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Speaker 2: five percent strength of schedule teams that have played thirty

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Speaker 2: five percent winning percentage. That's worse than the league by far.

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Speaker 2: Their strength of victory is even worse. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: their wins are Cowboys, Commanders, Raiders, Saints, Bengals, and Giants,

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Speaker 2: and they probably should have lost three or four of

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Speaker 2: those games. This defense can't stop a nose plead. I

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Speaker 2: get McCarthy's been bad. Do I love laying points with

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Speaker 2: JJ McCarthy, No, But I think even this offense, we'll

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Speaker 2: be able to do whatever at once. They'll be able

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Speaker 2: to run the ball. The Bears don't have anyone to

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Speaker 2: cover their receivers. I think Gernard should play on the

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Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball. Ham recently back. They could

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Speaker 2: get Kelly back at center. The rest of the team

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Speaker 2: is pretty healthy. They do lead the league in pressure

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Speaker 2: rate overall, and when not blitzing and look to Bears

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Speaker 2: run game has been great. Ben Johnson really has that

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Speaker 2: cooking basically over the last month and a half. But

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Speaker 2: number one, look they've played and number two, the Vikings

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Speaker 2: run defense is on an upswing since they got healthy.

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Speaker 2: Like Cashman van Ginkel, I mean, if you look over

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Speaker 2: the past two weeks, they went to Detroit held the

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Speaker 2: Lions to three point three yards per carry, and then

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Speaker 2: last week against the Ravens, they held Baltimore to four

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Speaker 2: point two yards per carry on thirty six carries. So

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Speaker 2: their run defense is much better than the metrics suggest.

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Speaker 2: And then I think what's gonna happen is Caleb in

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Speaker 2: passing downs. I mean, he's basically just bailing out of

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Speaker 2: the pocket, and he's won eightying out of the pocket

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Speaker 2: and then trying to make something happen. It's not been efficient,

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Speaker 2: but he's hitting a lot of explosive plays, but a

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Speaker 2: lot of that has come against the easiest schedule of

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Speaker 2: opposing defenses of any quarterback that any quarterback has faced

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Speaker 2: this year. I think there's gonna be too many negative

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Speaker 2: plays against the floor as defense. So yeah, I'm I'm

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Speaker 2: back in the Vikings here in a pretty much savior

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Speaker 2: season spot at four and five against a six and

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Speaker 2: three Bears team that it's been extremely fortunate due to

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Speaker 2: turnovers with one of the three worst defenses in the league,

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Speaker 2: maybe four if you want to put the forty nine

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Speaker 2: ers in there in their current state. So and yeah,

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Speaker 2: by the way, I mentioned who the Bears have played

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Speaker 2: basically nobody. I mean, the Vikings past four games have

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Speaker 2: come against the Eagles, Ravens, the past five games Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, Lions,

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Speaker 2: and Packers, so they've been on a pretty brutal stretch. Here.

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Speaker 2: We'll get a nut McCarthy in particular, we'll get a

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Speaker 2: nice break against this Bears defense. So yeah, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take Minnesota three or better I think is good here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I had to do a double take when I

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Speaker 3: saw the Bears were six and three.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it seems like every game they just eke

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Speaker 4: out two by it, Like it's pretty nuts. But you know,

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Speaker 4: we came into the year. I think you and I

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Speaker 4: were high in the Bears, and we were high on

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Speaker 4: the Packers. If we got the Eagles to take care

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Speaker 4: of the Lions, we'd have and the Packers could take

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Speaker 4: care of the Gamis Giants, we'd have those, we'd have

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Speaker 4: those two teams. It's just that now now you're betting

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Speaker 4: against the Bears here. So like, if the Bears win

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Speaker 4: this game, like we would have Bears Packers I think

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Speaker 4: number one and two in that division.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, the the problem is the Bears schedule gets

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Speaker 2: much tougher. The Packers just got to get healthier. We'll see,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about that game and a bit, but Jenkins

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Speaker 2: going on I or doesn't help matters at center. And

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Speaker 2: then obviously losing Tucker Craft was pretty big blow. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to Minnesota minus story where you're going.

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Speaker 4: Okay for my first pick, second overall of the week

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Speaker 4: eleven Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Tampa Bay

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Speaker 4: Buccaneers plus five and a half at the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 4: And this is a pretty simple handicap for me. The

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Speaker 4: Buffalo Bills offense it over the past, maybe since Joe

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Speaker 4: Brady got hired a couple of years ago. Mid season,

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Speaker 4: it really kind of trended towards the run. And in

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Speaker 4: that time, you know, they've let Stefan Diggs go. They've

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Speaker 4: gotten into this kind of mode where they're like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: in big games, we're gonna let Josh Allen kind of

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Speaker 4: bail us out run more and otherwise we're just gonna

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Speaker 4: run the ball and everyone eats on offense. But it's

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Speaker 4: kind of devolved into the situation where they have to

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Speaker 4: run to be successful. And I know Tampa gave up

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Speaker 4: some explosives to New England last week to Henderson. But overall,

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Speaker 4: I still think Tampa Bay's run defense on a down

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Speaker 4: to down basis is one of the best in the league.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're number one right there with Cleveland in success

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Speaker 2: right rush success right right.

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Speaker 4: And so you know it's Buffalo, it's Cook he's probably

218
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Speaker 4: gonna get get an explosive, not you know, not scared

219
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Speaker 4: of that at all. But this Tampa Bay defense matches

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Speaker 4: up well from that perspective, and Josh Allen and it's

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Speaker 4: the numbers are shown in the blitz too, because Josh

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Speaker 4: Allen really hasn't beaten the blitz to the same extent

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Speaker 4: you know that he has in the past.

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay does like to blitz a lot.

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Speaker 4: So this is gonna be a tough matchup for Buffalo

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Speaker 4: to consistently generate offense through the air yet again. And

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Speaker 4: I really think it comes down to the fact that

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Speaker 4: they put way too much on Holman and a guy

229
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Speaker 4: who just there was no guarantee, especially after seeing him

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Speaker 4: last year, that he was going to turn into anything.

231
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Speaker 4: Now he got I mean, Sekok's like you practiced. But

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Speaker 4: he's on the injury report. A ton of guys on

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Speaker 4: the injury report for Buffalo coming off. Yeah, Ki Kate

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Speaker 4: is big too, because I think Ki kaid he's not

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Speaker 4: your normal tight end that he only is good against zones,

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Speaker 4: which Campa Bay does play a lot of, so he

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Speaker 4: would be useful here.

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Speaker 3: But you know he can beat some of that man coverage.

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Speaker 4: And Tampa Bay, you know, say what you want about them,

240
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Speaker 4: We always kind of try to, you know, call them

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Speaker 4: a little bit overrated, and they probably have been at

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Speaker 4: numerous times, but very well coached team. You know, Todd

243
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Speaker 4: Bowse kind of stays out of the way on offense,

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Speaker 4: and the defense tends to be coached well even you know,

245
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Speaker 4: no matter who's in there. So I just think in

246
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Speaker 4: this spot, given that they have a good run defense,

247
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Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to not give up, you know. Uh,

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Speaker 4: you know, like a forty burger to Buffalo. Here, it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be raining, or it's gonna be weather. Weather's coming

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Speaker 4: into play. That helps Tampa Bay more because Tampa Bay

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Speaker 4: can stop the run.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo can't.

253
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Speaker 4: And Tampa Bay is starting to get even though Bucky's

254
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Speaker 4: been out and he's gonna be out again. Uh, They're

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Speaker 4: starting to get Tucker involved. I think he gives them

256
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Speaker 4: a little extra in the run game compared to justper

257
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Speaker 4: Shroud White. Uh and this Tampa Bay. You know, we

258
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Speaker 4: know Baker Mayfield is gonna post the plays out of

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Speaker 4: his ass regardless who they're playing.

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Speaker 3: You know, Buffalo is gonna kind of sit back in

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Speaker 3: its zones.

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Speaker 4: A lot of guys injured on defense Buffalo also, you

263
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Speaker 4: know up front, you know Oliver and a lot of

264
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Speaker 4: guys that are usually in there aren't in there. So

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Speaker 4: and I don't know what's up with all these guys

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Speaker 4: in the injury rep when I'm guessing it was just

267
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Speaker 4: because of the traveling in Miami and everyone's gonna play.

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Speaker 2: But Buffalo acte in a limited fashion for yeah, yeah.

269
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Speaker 4: Like we all, we all, but we all kind of

270
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Speaker 4: came in even I think last week might have mentioned

271
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Speaker 4: Buffalo was no, it was two weeks ago against the Chiefs,

272
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Speaker 4: Like Buffalo is not the same Buffalo necessarily that it was.

273
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Speaker 4: It's not the team I think I thought they were

274
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Speaker 4: gonna be coming into the year, you know that would

275
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Speaker 4: just run away with everything. And then you even look

276
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Speaker 4: at some of the wigs they have. I mean that

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Speaker 4: Baltimore went very improbable, and it was when Baltimore was

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Speaker 4: probably in a worse state than we thought. Maybe the Jets,

279
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Speaker 4: you know, that was their second biggest win of the year,

280
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Speaker 4: was the Jets thirty to ten. You know, Jets are garbage,

281
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Speaker 4: and you know they beat the Panthers forty to nine, which, okay,

282
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Speaker 4: it's not really that impressive. So they get the Chiefs. Yes,

283
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,560
Speaker 4: backed them in that spot. Always got to back them

284
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Speaker 4: as a dog. But I think this is too many

285
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,640
Speaker 4: points here. I think Tampa Bay matches up well, and

286
00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 4: the fact that it's gonna be weather number one, it

287
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 4: pulls a total down. The total was I would have

288
00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 4: projected this total above fifty, you know, all things considered

289
00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,520
Speaker 4: if there was no weather involved. But the totals down

290
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Speaker 4: to forty eight. That helps the dog. The line hasn't

291
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 4: really changed. But and then the matchup, you know, if

292
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 4: it's gonna be a more run centric game, I still

293
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 4: think that helps the dog in Tampa Bay just because

294
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 4: of their run defense and Buffalo's run defense has been horrible,

295
00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,000
Speaker 4: so that's kind of the equalizer here. And then Tampa

296
00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,520
Speaker 4: Bay with their blitzing. You know, it's it's not as

297
00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 4: simple as Josh Allen just kind of standing back there

298
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,320
Speaker 4: and just running away from people. You know it's a

299
00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 4: little more complicated with the blitzes. So give me Tampa

300
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,680
Speaker 4: Bay plus five and a half. I don't think we're

301
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 4: gonna get a six, but as well wait at this point,

302
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,920
Speaker 4: but either way, love Tampa Bay against Buffalo.

303
00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 3: In Buffalo, I.

304
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,240
Speaker 2: Can't get there. I think I would need six and

305
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 2: a half seven to consider Tampa. I mean, we'll see.

306
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,560
Speaker 2: I mean maybe if Buffalo is stubborn and just runs

307
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,120
Speaker 2: it too much, then yeah, they're probably gonna keep Tampa

308
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,720
Speaker 2: in this. But and they do, and Tampa does blitz.

309
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,400
Speaker 2: And you know, when you the best way to slow

310
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 2: down Josh Allen is to blitz. You know, you want

311
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 2: to play, you want to play a lot of man

312
00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:00,240
Speaker 2: on some early downs because of their receivers, but then

313
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 2: on like known passing downs, if you blitz play zone

314
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 2: in the back end. If you look over the past

315
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 2: three years, that's like the one kryptonite of found He's

316
00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:13,720
Speaker 2: still very good, but nowhere close to it was good. Yeah,

317
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,840
Speaker 2: this Tampa offense is without irving. They don't have this.

318
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 2: Their running game is just I mean, maybe the Tucker

319
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 2: gives them a little bit more juice, but their offense

320
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 2: has been in the tank for a month Baker Mayfield

321
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:30,560
Speaker 2: is not moving, he's not scrambling at all. Yeahs, when's

322
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 2: the last time he had a scramble like a month ago,

323
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 2: week ago.

324
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Speaker 3: Yep.

325
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Speaker 2: So that's problematic because and then you were you mentioned

326
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Speaker 2: some of the Bills wins, I mean the Bucks also

327
00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:42,560
Speaker 2: they they started like what five and one by with

328
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 2: wins by a total of five points, Like they were

329
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,840
Speaker 2: very fortunate. The last time their offense had life was

330
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 2: against that forty nine Ers defense. Who it's is with

331
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 2: all those injuries is like poverty level. But against the Saints,

332
00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:00,560
Speaker 2: they couldn't do anything. I mean they aver what like

333
00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 2: three yards per play in that game, but it was.

334
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Speaker 4: A very conservative game plan on the short week going

335
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:06,240
Speaker 4: into the buy.

336
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,800
Speaker 2: But still against the Lions with all their backup d backs,

337
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,720
Speaker 2: I mean we were everyone they could look like the

338
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,879
Speaker 2: Lions had five all pros in the secondary. Baker couldn't

339
00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,920
Speaker 2: hit anything. And you know the average three yards per

340
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 2: Carrie Baker was four point six yards per tenth against

341
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,359
Speaker 2: that Lions D And then last week against the Patriots,

342
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 2: like they had a late garbage time touchdown, but before

343
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 2: then it had sixteen points at home against the Pats,

344
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 2: D and like it's it's not an elite defense. So

345
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 2: I have concerns about the Bucks offense right now, and

346
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 2: Allen off a loss at home. I don't want to

347
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 2: get in front of him. But all more on this

348
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 2: game later. For my second pick and the third overall

349
00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 2: the week eleventh Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

350
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns plus eight and a half against my Baltimore Ravens.

351
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 2: This is my favorite time to bet the Browns. I've

352
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 2: done it all three times this year and when they

353
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 2: play at home past three years, their defense at home

354
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 2: is like arguably the best unit in the NFL. So

355
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 2: you can go look at EPA for play success rate differential.

356
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 2: It's insane. They shut down pretty much any offense they face,

357
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:26,879
Speaker 2: I mean at home this year. By the way, this

358
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 2: is like their first home game in a month. They've

359
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,680
Speaker 2: only played three home games all year somehow, but at

360
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,120
Speaker 2: home this year they should have beat Barrow, held them

361
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:39,440
Speaker 2: to seventeen points. They beat Love, held the Packers to ten,

362
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 2: beat the Dolphins, held them the three and six of

363
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 2: their other nine games have been away from home the

364
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:49,960
Speaker 2: past three years. When you or something crazy the past

365
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 2: three years, the Browns at home are sixty two percent

366
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 2: against the spread. On the road, they're five and seventeen

367
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 2: twenty two point seven percent worse than the league, the

368
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 2: worse than the Titans, who never cover, Yeah, five and

369
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 2: seventeen to get spread. And by the way, as a

370
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 2: touchdown plus dog at home, over the past three years

371
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 2: with the that defense three to zero against the spread,

372
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,719
Speaker 2: they won all three outright. They beat the Packers, they

373
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 2: beat the Raivens last year, and they beat the forty

374
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:23,439
Speaker 2: nine Ers last year, all as touchdown plus dogs. Additionally,

375
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 2: there's gonna be bad weather here. There's gonna be high winds,

376
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 2: high wind gusts, it's gonna be cold. That helps Cleveland exponentially.

377
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 2: They don't have a downfield passing attack. There's no explosive passing,

378
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 2: so that's gonna hurt the Ravens much more. And by

379
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 2: the way, whenever the Ravens can't ruin, they never can

380
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 2: run it against Cleveland. I mean, look back earlier this

381
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: year that Derek Henry could barely get a yard and

382
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 2: this is arguably the first or second best run defense

383
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 2: in the NFL. The Ravens run dye is still vulnerable

384
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 2: without man a Bouquet company on the defensive line. They

385
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 2: had some issues at linebacker. I mean last week the

386
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 2: Vikings averaged, but I don't know six yards per perry.

387
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 2: That's still not fixed. They still can't cover tight ends

388
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 2: and they struggle to defend short passes. But that's the

389
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 2: entire Browns offense. Like, if the Browns can run it

390
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 2: a bit, they can eat the clock up. If they can't,

391
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 2: it's there, they're screwed. And by the way, I mean

392
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,159
Speaker 2: last week they outplayed the Jets, they give up two

393
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: special teams touchdowns. So yeah, I think the weather conditions

394
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: will really help Cleveland. And this is just we haven't

395
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 2: seen their defense at home in a while, and people

396
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 2: forget what their defense does at home in Baltimore. On

397
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:33,879
Speaker 2: the on the season's twenty seventh in the success right

398
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 2: against the run, twenty six in rush EPA still very problematic.

399
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 2: And from a health perspective, I think this is key.

400
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: The Ravens aren't fully healthy. They work fully healthy. For

401
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 2: a week. It was fun. They had no one on

402
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 2: the injury report last week, but I don't think Bateman plays.

403
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: Humphreys banged up, and Lamar I was expecting more off

404
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 2: extended rest. As far as how he looked mobility wise,

405
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 2: and it's just not there yet. The explode sickness in

406
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 2: the running and that's big against this pass rush, which

407
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 2: I think is going to live in the backfield and

408
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 2: that's what makes lamar lamar, and and then you throw

409
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 2: in the conditions, it's I think it's going to be

410
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 2: tough for this Ravens team to consistently move the ball.

411
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 2: He just didn't look one hundred percent. He took a

412
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 2: lot of bad hits. Now you're going to be like

413
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 2: in the cold and wind and rain with that hammy.

414
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: I assume they probably want to be a little cautious

415
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 2: with him. And you know, you got the whole season left.

416
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 2: And I don't think this is the worst matchup for

417
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 2: the Browns. But basically I'm just trusting the Browns home

418
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 2: defense against the Ravens. I think this is a bit

419
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 2: too many points. You'll get Cleveland's best stuppor year in

420
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 2: Cleveland's pretty much.

421
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 3: Healthy.

422
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 2: Like Alex Right is the only one that did in

423
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 2: practice today. I think that's it. So yeah, give me

424
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 2: this Cleveland defense at home catch over a touchdown. I mean,

425
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 2: I bet them all three home games this year. Probably

426
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: will bet them at home a couple more times. This

427
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 2: will be the fourth and they really should be three

428
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 2: and oh with wins over the Dolphins, Bengals, and Packers.

429
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 2: So this is just a different team at home. I

430
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 2: don't I can't explain it. I don't know why their

431
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: defense falls off so much on the road, but and

432
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: the conditions will only help them. So yeah, give me,

433
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 2: give me Cleveland plus eight and a half.

434
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 3: They probably just remember the Cleveland Browns when they're going

435
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 3: the road.

436
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 4: They're like, oh, it's hopeless and there's no effort. But

437
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 4: I mean, you got one of the best defensive player

438
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 4: in the league essentially, and you're at home, Elements, I

439
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 4: think that you know they got some swag at home,

440
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 4: all right.

441
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 2: Before we move on betting McCarthy and Gabriel, I mean Ward,

442
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: otherwise I'd have the three worst quarterbacks in the league

443
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: so far statistically.

444
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I got I got Baker, but I'm betting

445
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 4: against Allen so that doesn't feel great either. But before

446
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 4: we get to the last three picks, there's a quick

447
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 4: and easy way for you to tail us.

448
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 3: First, sign up for Action Pro.

449
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450
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Speaker 4: a bet, whether that's myself, Stucky Brandon Anderson.

451
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Speaker 3: You want to get those right away.

452
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 4: Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Sean

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464
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472
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Speaker 3: The crown is yours.

473
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 2: All right.

474
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 4: For my second pick, the fourth overall of the week

475
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 4: eleven Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Washington Commanders

476
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 4: plus three. Try to just plus threes out there, just

477
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 4: plus two and a half's out there. Try to get

478
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,239
Speaker 4: a three. Obviously key number. But uh, this is as

479
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 4: simple as I can't get to this number. It's a

480
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 4: neutral field. I thought, you know, this line was going

481
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 4: to be about to pick them or something. You know,

482
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 4: Miami's been playing a little better lately. Washington just put

483
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 4: another corner on ir So they they're poverty in the secondary.

484
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 3: I mean, their secondary is just horrible.

485
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 2: Well then Pain decided that you didn't want to play

486
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 2: last week. That's yeah, so he's suspended.

487
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 4: They're all I mean, it's it's a mess to Washington.

488
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 4: Defense is a mess. Let's get that out of the way. Left.

489
00:24:58,600 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no.

490
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 4: This is not why we're betting on Washington because we

491
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 4: think their defense is going to magically improve. I mean, hey, uh,

492
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: the coach is calling the plays now, I guess, so

493
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 4: maybe that'll help. I don't know, but that's about the

494
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 4: only thing Washington has going for on defense. However, Miami,

495
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 4: what what are we really backing here with Miami? Like,

496
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 4: how does Miami get but Miami is now two and

497
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 4: a half three point favorite in this spot on a

498
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,239
Speaker 4: neutral field like that? How are we getting to this

499
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 4: number with Miami? I don't know.

500
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 3: Miami's defense is just as poverty level.

501
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 4: They just happen to run into like you know, Buffalo

502
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 4: and the amdity laying an egg. Uh, the Falcons without

503
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 4: Drake London last minute and what that. That's basically what

504
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 4: they've done, you know, positively over the past couple of months.

505
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 2: Uh, but they played they played without pen X too, Yeah, yeah, exactly.

506
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 3: So yeah it's the Falcons.

507
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, So like what are we really This Dolphins defense

508
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 4: all things considered, just as bad to me as Washington defense. Now, yes,

509
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 4: Washington maybe a little worse in you know, in the

510
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 4: second I remember Miami traded guys. Uh, this is not

511
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 4: a good Miami defense at all. And then offensive we

512
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 4: got no Washington's without Terry, Miami's without Tyreek kill Miami

513
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 4: their offense, it's Devon ah Chan or bus really uh,

514
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 4: you know, Waddle okay, but Tua tongue of Bailoa. Now,

515
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 4: you know, he goes from playing some teams that, you

516
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 4: know a little more zone heavy, Washington is still hard

517
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 4: headed or not. They'll still play man, they'll still blitz,

518
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 4: just kind of create some havoc. The way these Dolphins

519
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 4: have won over the past couple of weeks when they've

520
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 4: won is they like Tua has thrown like twenty passes

521
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 4: per game in those games, they haven't really had to

522
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 4: do anything through the air, so they haven't had the

523
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 4: you know, the chance to create havoc on Tua, which

524
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 4: in this game, like there's there's just two bad defenses.

525
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 4: I think that's what. There's a lot of luck involved there.

526
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 4: I just can't get to Washington being three points worse,

527
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 4: which it's just two teams with terrible defenses, you know,

528
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 4: offenses that are kind of missing key pieces. And you know,

529
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 4: the market is now higher on on on Miami because oh,

530
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 4: you know, like they're they're putting puff pieces out in

531
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 4: the media about McDaniel and him beating Sobrian, you know,

532
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 4: him kind of beating his uh, you know, his alcoholism,

533
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 4: and it's like the mark is just way too high

534
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 4: on Miami.

535
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 3: For me, I don't have these teams separated by this much.

536
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: Marcus Mariota and this offense, Uh, it's gonna be able

537
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 4: to move the ball on Miami's defense. Miami's defense is nothing,

538
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 4: nothing special, And I just think that in this matchup,

539
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 4: I'd rather have a rushing a quarterback who can move

540
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 4: more than two a can and uh, you know, two

541
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: bad defenses. I'll take a three point two and a

542
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 4: half three point Doug any day in the New fral fields.

543
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 4: So give me Washington laying two, laying three against Miami in.

544
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 3: What where are we in London? Is this London or

545
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 3: is this a Germany? I don't even know where we are.

546
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 4: Spain, Spain, Yes, Spain, Okay, yeah, give me Washington way

547
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 4: three in Spain with with with apparently.

548
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess Paint is. You know, some of

549
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 3: the guys is quick.

550
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 4: But uh, if you look at Washington's strength to schedule too,

551
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 4: Like I mentioned Miami, you know, Buffalo looks like a

552
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 4: great win on paper, and I'm not gonna take anything

553
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 4: away from them, but it's still one of those games

554
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 4: that Buffalo kind of historically struggles against in you know,

555
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 4: going on the road, to Miami, uh coming off a

556
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 4: big win against Kansas City. But you get who Washington

557
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 4: has played, and it's hard to expect anything but just

558
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 4: poverty defense. Detroit, Seattle, Kansas City in Kansas City, Dallas

559
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 4: in Dallas. Those are the four teams Washington's played over

560
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 4: the past month. They lost by one to Chicago, and

561
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 4: then they beat the Chargers, you know, handily in LA

562
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 4: and they put up twenty seven and you know, one

563
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 4: possession wants to the Falcons before that. So, like Washington's

564
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 4: schedule has been very, very tough, So we might still

565
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 4: not have the full picture of them. They clearly are

566
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 4: terrible on defense, but I'm just betting that they're not

567
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 4: quite as terrible as the market thinks overall.

568
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 3: And I think Miami this might be the top of

569
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: the market. Like they're not.

570
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 4: They're not getting a better win than the buff than

571
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 4: the Bills this year, Like they're just not getting even

572
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 4: if you look at the schedules, there's no way they can't.

573
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 4: So give me Washington against Miami. I just didn't ever

574
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 4: think we'd get to this number.

575
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, maybe Washington plays more. I think you

576
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 2: want to you want to play zone against Tua not Man,

577
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 2: I mean historically has done much better against man. Uh blitz.

578
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 3: They'll probably blitz though, I just I just don't but

579
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 3: I think you probably.

580
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: Zone, Like who's I don't even know their corners are

581
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: this week, Oh my gosh, probably because Jones is maybe

582
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 2: that is hurt.

583
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 3: Can I probably Sandra still Sanders.

584
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 2: Still will you're out there, but like I don't even

585
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 2: know if they have another guy on uh practice squad?

586
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 3: Good good, We don't need any of these corners.

587
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: Like Antonio Hamilton, Antonio Hamilton.

588
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 3: I get all these corners. The he out of here.

589
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 4: Man.

590
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: Maybe they played more zone, which is I think you

591
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: zone and blitz and changed things up. But I got.

592
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 4: Isn't isn't that dan quinnt like the og dan Quinn

593
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 4: would would have played more zone. I don't know what

594
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 4: this whole you know, this whole scheme is kind of

595
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 4: a little far into me for dan quinn defense. But

596
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 4: he said he's taking over the play con for a bit.

597
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 4: So I just feel like we're at the bottom of

598
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: the market Washington, top of the mark in Miami.

599
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's yeah, that's fair all right for my

600
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: third pick in the fifth overall the week eleven Sunday

601
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: six pack. I'm going with the Jacksonville Jaguars plus three

602
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: at home against the Chargers. Just can't get to this number.

603
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 2: I think it should be like one one and a

604
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 2: half based on my numbers. The Chargers can't block anyone

605
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: right now. I mean, and they have to get rid

606
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 2: of the ball within a second to do anything on offense.

607
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Herbert got two point twenty five seconds to

608
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: throw first pick. It's only five games that happened this

609
00:30:55,680 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 2: year for any quarterback. The highest pressure rate before this

610
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 2: past week was twenty eight percent. Herbert was at forty

611
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: four percent. I mean, that's insane. You're getting rid of

612
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: the ball in two seconds and facing a forty four

613
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: percent pressure rate. So yeah, I mean, this team, they're

614
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: laying three on the road against a competent team without

615
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 2: an offensive line, and since they've had these offensive line issues.

616
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: This is what the Chargers have done on the road.

617
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 2: They beat the Raiders, Titans, lost to the Giants, and

618
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 2: barely beat the Dolphins. Like that's that's what they've done

619
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: on the road so far this year. And the Jags

620
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: haven't been at home in over a month, and you

621
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 2: know they've they've gone one to three in their past

622
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: four they've played. The losses were the Rams, Seahawks and Texans,

623
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:45,959
Speaker 2: and the Texans they were up twenty. But those are

624
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 2: two of the better teams in the NFL, and then

625
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: Texans are the best defense in the NFL. This will

626
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: be a nice break. Most importantly, the Chargers run defense

627
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: is not great, I mean below average of most metrics,

628
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 2: bottom three and explosive runs allowed. That is usually my

629
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: handicap when I look at Jags games. Can they run

630
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: the ball? And by the way, all the teams they

631
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 2: played lately have really good run defenses. The charters do not.

632
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: They should be able to run it here. By the way,

633
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: I think they get Brenton Strange back huge. I've been

634
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 2: saying that for a month, especially in the red zone.

635
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: Brian Thomas back at practice today. You know, Jacobe Myers

636
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 2: another week in the system, and if Herbert doesn't have

637
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 2: any time, he can't attack the Jags safeties down the

638
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 2: field often and their safeties are pretty beat up. You

639
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: don't want Andrew Wingar trying to cover back there. So yeah,

640
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: I think Jags are a bit undervalued here. They'll be

641
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 2: able to run the ball, do some things they've been

642
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 2: much better at home this year. I mean, remember, this

643
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: is the team that was catching three at home and

644
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: beat Kansas City earlier this year. I'm not a believer

645
00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: in this Charters team right now with the state of

646
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 2: their off into blind it's it's gonna just crumble games,

647
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 2: especially on the road. So I think this line's two.

648
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: I think three is way too generous. Give me the

649
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: Jacksonville Jaguars. And by the way, this game is enormous

650
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: for playoff implications, playoffs seating. I think it's the highest

651
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: leverage game of the season so far. Yeah. According to

652
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: Aaron Schatz, Jaguars fifty seven, so basically sixty percent chance

653
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: again in the playoffs with a win, under twenty with

654
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 2: a loss, Chargers ninety percent with a win, closer to

655
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 2: a coin flip with a loss, huge game in the AFC.

656
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: Give me the Jags catching three at home.

657
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of a discouraging to see our Jags

658
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 4: like just fumble away there, freaking like, you know, we

659
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 4: were on the bunch of stuff. Make the playoffs over

660
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 4: win no, Like, I mean, it was kind of bitter

661
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 4: sneak because I had the text for the for the

662
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 4: pod last week, but I mean, Jesus, just like it

663
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 4: just seems like.

664
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,240
Speaker 3: Tyl Lawrence is just it's just never comes together.

665
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 4: I know he's missing guys, but oh man, it's it's

666
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 4: just been a little bit disheartening.

667
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 3: I don't think it's Cone Fuld either. I think it's

668
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: just guys out there playing.

669
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 2: But uh, Parker Washington also looks pretty good lately.

670
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: Hewek's really good. I like him. I like him a lot.

671
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,760
Speaker 2: So if he got Washington, Thomas and uh and Meyers

672
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 2: out there with strange back and then a running game,

673
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 2: then you know you're gonna have a Cohen against this defense.

674
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to move the ball. And

675
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 2: then you have an offense which obviously is a better quarterback,

676
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 2: but that doesn't have an offensive line. There's no tackles

677
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 2: they can't block. Then the guy they were starting might

678
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 2: tackle the back the third store. He might not even play,

679
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 2: so it's bad, and then the Jacks can get pressure

680
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 2: off the edge.

681
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 3: Yeah.

682
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 4: I think, like I'm always well on the charges, I

683
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 4: think they continue to be overrated. I mean, you know,

684
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 4: they just kind of caught will They just kind of

685
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 4: bumbled and stumbled to that victory against the Steelers. Who

686
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 4: I'll talk about now, So let's get to it. For

687
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 4: my third pick, the sixth and final pick of the

688
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 4: week eleven Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Pittsburgh

689
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 4: Steelers minus five and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals.

690
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 4: And this might be an interesting one to some people,

691
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 4: but I think that the Steelers they've made some changes

692
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 4: over the past few weeks.

693
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 3: They kind of fell back a little bit into old

694
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:31,879
Speaker 3: habits last week.

695
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 4: On defense, I thought they've still blitzed a little too

696
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 4: much against Herbert. But the bottom line is the Steeler

697
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 4: defense can get pressure, and this offense is gonna be

698
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 4: able to cook, especially against a Bengals defense that's just

699
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 4: terrible against tight ends. That's Steelers. They cannot cover tight ends,

700
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: and the Steelers, you know they have four tight ends

701
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 4: if they mixed into their offense. You know, Roman Wilson's

702
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 4: starting to come along a little bit at receiver and

703
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 4: Austin's healthy as well. So you know, you've had some

704
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 4: tougher matchups over the past few weeks. You know, you

705
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 4: played Green Bay, you played the Colts, and you play

706
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 4: the Chargers defenses that those are tough defenses. The Bengals

707
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 4: defense as you mentioned earlier, argue with the worst in

708
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 4: the NFL. I yeah, no, Hendrickson. And then you look

709
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 4: on the other side. Okay, Bengals been hanging around, you know,

710
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 4: Joe Flacco reinvigorated this team.

711
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, whoop you do?

712
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 4: Okay, they get a late score to come within nine

713
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 4: of the Packers. Then they play three straight home games,

714
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 4: so yes, they're coming off a bye, but now they're

715
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:31,879
Speaker 4: going on.

716
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 3: The road to Pittsburgh.

717
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 4: In those three home games, was that crazy game against

718
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 4: the Steelers that I think, which is why this line

719
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 4: hasn't gotten the six And then they beat the they

720
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 4: lose to the Jets, and they lose to the Bears.

721
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 4: They scored thirty eight and forty two points in those games.

722
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 4: I don't think they're coming close to that against the

723
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 4: Steelers defense, because the Steelers, unlike the Jets and the Bears,

724
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 4: can get pressure and they could do it without Butzy.

725
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 3: They don't have to Butitzer. I know they've been butitzing

726
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 3: too much. They've doubt it back a little opening that after.

727
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: They've also made some changes on the back end and

728
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: some coverage things that I think of.

729
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, they're playing just a lot smarter of a

730
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 4: scheme I thought, and I think though, probably because they

731
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 4: played three weeks ago and they you know, gave up

732
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 4: thirty one point.

733
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 3: Thirty three points. Excuse me.

734
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 4: I think though, that'll kind of uh make them make

735
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 4: some changes. And last week against the Charges, I thought

736
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 4: they still pitched too much. This team can, but they

737
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 4: have what they have Hayward. They don't need to blitz.

738
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 4: And when you look at the Bengals, Okay, Flacco, we're

739
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 4: all excited that he's reinvigorated his offense. He's forty years old.

740
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 4: He cannot he cannot deal with pressure. Steelers are gonna

741
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 4: get pressure one way or another. They're gonna get pressure,

742
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 4: whether they witz, whether they don't put, they're gonna get pressure.

743
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 4: Flaco under pressure with Cincinnati this year forty nine dropbacks,

744
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 4: seventeen of them have ended in a completion forty one

745
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 4: point five completion rate, three point six yards in attempt.

746
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 4: One of his eleven touchdowns have come again pressure, even

747
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 4: when you blitz them.

748
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 3: Just one of his eleven touchdowns have come against the blitz.

749
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 4: So I don't think Cincinnati is gonna have the same

750
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 4: you know, successful offense here. If Pittsburgh plays a bit

751
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 4: smarter on defense just plays to their normal talent level,

752
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 4: and you know, the home fields flip here, and then

753
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 4: with Cleveland, Flacco is just as bad. Four point five

754
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 4: yards an attempt, A gets pressure, one touchdown, four picks,

755
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: So I think you're gonna get turnovers here, and I

756
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 4: think you're gonna get a much easier matchup for the

757
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 4: Steelers offense that's not great but not terrible either, And

758
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 4: you know they're starting to have guys.

759
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 3: You know, they're starting to have a third receiver emerge.

760
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 4: They have three capable tight ends, and in this spot

761
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 4: they're talking about feeding Warren More, which I think is

762
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 4: also very smart. Cincinnati might have to play Brown the

763
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 4: whole game. They don't trust their backup. I don't think

764
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 4: p Ryan's gonna go. It seems like he's gonna miss

765
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 4: some time with the ankle. So I just think that

766
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 4: this could. Strangely enough, even though they're coming off two horrible,

767
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 4: horrible losses and a buye, this could still be the

768
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 4: top of the market for the Bengals because they've scored

769
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 4: thirty three, thirty eight, and forty two in their last

770
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 4: three games, and yet they are one and two in

771
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 4: those games. So give me Pittsburgh to put up a

772
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 4: big number and create some distance here in Pittsburgh against

773
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 4: the Bengals.

774
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought about this, so one might end up

775
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 2: playing it. I mean, especially if there's weather. The only

776
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 2: thing I'm concerned about it is like two old guys

777
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 2: in the cold. But like, if there's weather here, there's win.

778
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: There's the potential for like fifty twenty mile an hour

779
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 2: gots ten to fifteen mine hour wins. Like, so it's

780
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 2: bordering on impactful. That's gonna hurt the Bengals so much more.

781
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: And the Steelers can run it. They could just hand

782
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 2: it off here and run all over since these defense

783
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: they could just throw and they throw short passes that's

784
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 2: all they do, and they throw to their tight ends,

785
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 2: which since he can't cover, and yeah, they're gonna be

786
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 2: able to get pressure on Flaco. I think the Steelers

787
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 2: are a little cheap here, So I would agree with you.

788
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 3: All right, Dad is going to do it for our

789
00:39:59,040 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 3: week eleven six pas.

790
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 4: But see you got so, you got McCarthy, you got

791
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 4: who is a Dylan Gabriel still and uh and trev

792
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 4: and Trevor, Oh that that I mean statistically it was

793
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 4: my because Trevor's down there. I haven't looked at the

794
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 4: I was looking at the number heading into as week,

795
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 4: and I remember Trevor was like thirtieth in the an

796
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 4: EPA and all that stuff, So I don't know, I

797
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 4: don't know where he is now, but yeah, it's this

798
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 4: is a little shaken. And I got Mariota forty year old,

799
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 4: Rogers and Baker, but with Baker with like half of

800
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 4: his receivers. So yeah, not not it's pretty on brand.

801
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 3: Under six.

802
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right again, if you'd like to tell some

803
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 4: of these pictures, look for the quick slip link in

804
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 4: the podcast and video description. Make sure to sign up

805
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 4: for Action proper instant notifications when all of our bets

806
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 4: are tracked. All right, now it's time for our favorite

807
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 4: totals of the week. I'll start us off here stuck.

808
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 4: I'm gonna roll with the Eagles Lions under forty seven.

809
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 4: You can get out there still some forty six and

810
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 4: a half. It doesn't matter for the contest, but essentially

811
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 4: this is a you know, first of all, I know

812
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 4: Layne Johnson probably still whittle banged up.

813
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 3: I know he should be expected should.

814
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 4: Go, but you still have you still have, like not

815
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 4: a perfect Detroit defensive line, offensive line excuse me, And

816
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 4: you have Jared Goff outdoors in what could be weather,

817
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 4: and you have Philly, who you know, they've they've kind

818
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 4: of gotten to more of a heavy offensive formation now

819
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 4: they've you know, they're less three wide, more heavy.

820
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,760
Speaker 3: I think that lowers the total and they're.

821
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 4: Gonna, you know, kind of especially against a team like

822
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,760
Speaker 4: Detroit who still has a scary offense. I think Philly's

823
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 4: gonna play ball control, They're gonna.

824
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 2: And they're probably gonna go half without scoring like they

825
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 2: do every week.

826
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, their offense is still not great.

827
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 2: I mean it's bad. Like yeah, that that performance on Money.

828
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 2: They said two good plays. It was like a dump

829
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 2: off to Barkley and then a bomb that was at

830
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,399
Speaker 2: the entire game. There's no motion, there's no play action.

831
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:55,439
Speaker 3: Short week, short week.

832
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. So yeah, yeah, this one the only thing I

833
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 2: worried about. I just don't know, like one of the

834
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 2: things I talked about last week going into that Washington game. Now,

835
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 2: it's hard to break because Washington's defense was so embarrassingly

836
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 2: bad and like lost guys during the game, and it's

837
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 2: obviously a horrific but I was talking about how the

838
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 2: Detroit offense has been in the tank for a month

839
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 2: and they couldn't run the ball, and they I mean,

840
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 2: if you look at their their pass rate over expectation

841
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 2: hasn't been positive in any game till last week, and

842
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 2: Campbell took over the play calling. So how much do

843
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: I take from that. I don't know. It looked good,

844
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 2: but it was I don't know how much of it

845
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 2: was Washington and how much of it was Detroit. Now,

846
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 2: obviously this is a much stiffer test, and I will

847
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 2: say that coming out of that game, the one the

848
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: one unit that I was both of those, the Eagles

849
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 2: and the Packers, look like they have championship caliber defenses.

850
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 2: We'll see which offense can figure it out by the

851
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 2: time the playoffs roll around. But adding Jalen Phillips looked

852
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: that was a big addition. He really helped gave him

853
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 2: some juice off the edge. I thought he made a

854
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 2: lot of really nice plays and played played actually way

855
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 2: more snaps than I thought he was going to in

856
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: his first game. So yeah, the Eagles defense, I think

857
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 2: is definitely trending up, and the offense is is still

858
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 2: just broken and predictable, and there's no creativity, and the

859
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 2: offensive line isn't as good and it's banged up, so

860
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 2: like Barkley can't get going as much, and like the

861
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 2: only time the offense has looked great is like I mean,

862
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 2: people thought like, oh it is the Giants. Like even

863
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 2: against the Vikings it was just a couple of bombs

864
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 2: on fourth downs, but against the Giants, who have the

865
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 2: worst run defense in the league, Like when Barkley can

866
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 2: get going and then the offense looks better. I do

867
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 2: like some of the things they're doing with Jumbo, but

868
00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: just overall, the offense is not going to be exploded.

869
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 2: I mean aj Brown is just to go out there.

870
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean Eagles games, it's it's gonna take

871
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 2: a lot for them to go over and unless I

872
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 2: see more from that offense.

873
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 4: And this is our favorite time of the year for

874
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 4: the Eagles defense coming off of bye. You know, a

875
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 4: couple like they came off to buy last week. But

876
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 4: it's like you know that Fandrio defense coming off you know,

877
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 4: extended time off. They had the ten days against the

878
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 4: Giants a few weeks ago off and now they had

879
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 4: and then they had to buy a couple of weeks ago.

880
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 4: So I think this defense down a stretch, it's gonna

881
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 4: kind of carry them, and they know that. They know

882
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 4: that like this this is this is a team who

883
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 4: went in its shell last year after you know, they

884
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 4: had some time to kind of self scout against the Lions.

885
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 4: You do not want to keep the Lions offense on

886
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 4: the field, but even if you do, you get some

887
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 4: like there's a thirty three percent chance of rain, double

888
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 4: digit wins currently in the forecast. It's not super cold,

889
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 4: it's under fifty. But still, I think this is gonna

890
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 4: be a little bit more of a rude awakening for

891
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 4: the for the Lions offense, like outdoors against Philly versus

892
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 4: outdoors against Washington. So yeah, I mean, I'm still telling

893
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 4: to take the because Philly's offense has been so bad,

894
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 4: but I think the total is the smartest way to

895
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 4: play this.

896
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:06,919
Speaker 3: So going with the under where you're.

897
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: Going DJ Reid back to potentially maybe.

898
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 3: Arnold is concussion protocols.

899
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 2: I mean, Arnold's terrible, so yeah, uh, that would be

900
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 2: a big swamp there. Hutchinson didn't practice today, but I

901
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: assume we'll be fine. And Joseph, I don't know, he's

902
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 2: not he didn't practice today, but maybe they get him back.

903
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Bills Bucks under what do

904
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 2: we got four? It doesn't matter for the contest. Forty eight.

905
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's a forty eight sto out there,

906
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 3: but cut it down.

907
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 2: But you know you're gonna have weather here. Two slower teams,

908
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 2: if I mean the Bills, they're they're gonna run it.

909
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 2: I don't know how much, but you're not. And you

910
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 2: can't run on Tampa. Tampa's run game isn't the same

911
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 2: without Bucky Irving. That's the best way to attack this

912
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: Bill's defense. Talked about some of the defensive things that

913
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 2: Tampa does that could give Alan some trouble. And then

914
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 2: this Tampa offense is just not the same when Baker's

915
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 2: not scrambling. I'm not sure how healthy is The offensive

916
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 2: line is still banged up. They don't have all their

917
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: skill positions. I think you get a spirited effort from

918
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 2: the Bills defense. Almost all the guys that are questionable

919
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: were practicing today, albeit on a limited basis. We mentioned

920
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: no Kincaid, so I think there's a lot of things

921
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 2: working in favor of the under here. In a late

922
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:32,399
Speaker 2: season outdoor game with wind, what's the updated win there

923
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: in Orchard Park.

924
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 4: We have let's see, ten mile per hour winds, forty degrees,

925
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 4: fifty chance of snow showers.

926
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: Oh, I don't like that.

927
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 4: Yeah a snover, Yeah, that would be good for anything.

928
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 2: Can switch it on the fly. Well, no, I still

929
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 2: think it's a little too high, but I'll wait to play.

930
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 2: This snover is like, like I'll explain what snovers are again.

931
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 2: They rarely come up. You need like a perf, you

932
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 2: need a good coating on the field to make it

933
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 2: slippery because then defenders don't know where you're going. The

934
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 2: pass rutch gets neutralized, and then you also don't You

935
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 2: can't have too much wind. I got to check the

936
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 2: gusts there. But that's it's very hard to predict the

937
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 2: wind in Buffalo like we're especially if there's going to

938
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 2: be a storm. There's a storm that rolls in.

939
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 4: Nineteen miles per hour, nineteen miles per hour throughout the

940
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 4: game as of now, humidity about eighty in the high

941
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 4: eighties too.

942
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think that that's the only thing that

943
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 2: wouldn be paused. But the chances that it's actually ends

944
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 2: up being a snowver are small. But we'll see if

945
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 2: it ends up being too much now, then it's like,

946
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 2: then it's a snunder because then no one can move,

947
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 2: which and knows rarely happened to. But but yeah, I

948
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 2: think this is a little too a lot of things

949
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 2: working in favor of the under unless we get a snowver.

950
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 2: So stay tuned the Action Network. AP.

951
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 3: Now it's time for our money line underdog.

952
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 1: Parley turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

953
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

954
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 4: All right, got another one of these? I think you're like,

955
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,919
Speaker 4: what is it nine and ten a year on these?

956
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:21,479
Speaker 2: Yep?

957
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, So where are you going? First? Start us off?

958
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 3: Who do you like for a money line dog to

959
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 3: put up? Set?

960
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 2: Don't love too many this week? Consider the Jags and

961
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. But let's go with the Ram. Let's go

962
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks against the Rams. The Rams have been

963
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 2: I mean we talked about this last week with their

964
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 2: heavy personnel over the past four weeks. I believe they're

965
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 2: using thirteen personnel and forty percent of their snaps. Yep,

966
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 2: Seahawks been good against defending that. For what it's worth,

967
00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:00,439
Speaker 2: I still think that this So do you are two

968
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 2: really good teams? Two legit contenders in the NFC. I

969
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 2: can't wait for this game. Talked about some of like

970
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 2: the boring NFL matchups and boring, this is not one

971
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 2: of them. This actually should be a pretty exciting overall

972
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 2: slate outside of like the command Like, some of the

973
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 2: prime time games are bad, but we've been unlucky with

974
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: the prime time games like this week. The Island games

975
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 2: are Commanders, Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys, yet Jets, Pats. Yeah, we

976
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 2: had Eagles lines. So we're going like one of four

977
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 2: ONIKE games that you're like, oh, I got to watch this,

978
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 2: but the afternoon slight should be pretty good, and this

979
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 2: is one of them. I just think this will be

980
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 2: a back and forth game. Like both dophinses are real,

981
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 2: they keep showing it. I think what the difference might

982
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 2: end up being, Like I think that the Rams are

983
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 2: the rightful favorite here, but what could end up being

984
00:49:54,400 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 2: the difference is the Rams defense I still think is overrated.

985
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 2: And they they can get pressure, they're good against the run,

986
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 2: but I think their secondary, but the Seahawks can't really

987
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 2: run it efficiently anyway, and Donald's getting murder the ball

988
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 2: so quick. The Rams defense, their secondary, I think is

989
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: over I mean you look over the past two months.

990
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 2: I mean they played the Texans and the Titans to

991
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: start the year. You can throw them out with their

992
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: the states of their offensive line and what those offenses

993
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: looked like at that time. They somehow give up twenty

994
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 2: seven to the Eagles in the second half. They should

995
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 2: have given up thirty plus of the Colts. Right, you

996
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 2: had that dropped Ady Mitchell, you had the hole that

997
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:41,399
Speaker 2: brought back a Taylor touchdown. They get carved up by

998
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: Mac Jones twice in the past month, who threw for

999
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 2: three thirty and they split those games, and then there

1000
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 2: are other games like in between then, which I think

1001
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 2: are like pulling up their defensive mat. Sure, it's a

1002
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 2: thought of this is schedule base. They played Cooper Rush

1003
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 2: and the Ravens. That helps, you know, they played Tyler

1004
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 2: Schuck in the Saints and then the Jags just I

1005
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:09,359
Speaker 2: mean the Jags were going up and down the field

1006
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 2: that they just couldn't punch it in, So like, yeah, there,

1007
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 2: I think their secondary is vulnerable. So I think they're

1008
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 2: just going to be opportunities for both teams to move

1009
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 2: the ball here. And I think that there's a case

1010
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 2: they made that the Seahawks defense is underrated because we

1011
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 2: know they can get pressure without blitzing. We know how

1012
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: good McDonald is, we know all good. This team has

1013
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 2: been on the road as well under McDonald, but they

1014
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:40,879
Speaker 2: were also for a long stretch of the season dealing

1015
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 2: with serious secondary injuries. And now they're much healthier on

1016
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:55,279
Speaker 2: that front, and they've had some other guys emerge. So yeah,

1017
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 2: I think the Rams are the rightful favor, but I

1018
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 2: think this is a chance to be a back and

1019
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 2: forth game where it's like last team with the all

1020
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 2: has a chance to win. So I'll take a shot

1021
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:04,800
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks.

1022
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 4: And I think that you know, that move for Rashid

1023
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 4: Shaheed helps because you know, again the Rams, you know,

1024
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 4: cornerback a little shaky. The Seahawks, you know, you're not

1025
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 4: gonna win every game in one two personnel. So now

1026
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 4: the Seahawks have a little bit more versatility. And for

1027
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:24,359
Speaker 4: the Rams, Devanta Adams tweaked something last game. I don't know,

1028
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,439
Speaker 4: I don't know what his status is, but that would

1029
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 4: be big, if you know, that would make them a

1030
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 4: lot more one demension. I know they have their tight ends,

1031
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 4: but Seahawks can defend that. This would be a game

1032
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 4: you already put at well on ir Whittington has.

1033
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 3: Given you nothing over the past, you know, a few games.

1034
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 4: So yeah, the injuries could also kind of tweak that

1035
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 4: job is the only guy for Seattle and then they

1036
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 4: their center. I'll see how much of effect that has.

1037
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 4: I could could mess some things up, but yeah, I

1038
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 4: think Seattle making that move for for Shaheed could pay

1039
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 4: off in this one. Okay, I'm going with the other

1040
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 4: NFC West underdog here. I'm going with the Cardinals plus

1041
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 4: one thirty six, and you know it's it's shaky. They

1042
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 4: don't Have're not gonna have Marvin Harrison in this one appendicitis,

1043
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 4: so they're gonna be pretty one dimensional with probably throwing

1044
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,399
Speaker 4: a trade McBride. But we do like our our guy,

1045
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 4: Greg Dortsch and I just think that this Niner defense

1046
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 4: is the worst of the two defenses Cardinals home Cardinals.

1047
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 4: You know there's some bad luck there with the you know,

1048
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:28,280
Speaker 4: giving up two bumble return touchdowns to the same player

1049
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:29,400
Speaker 4: against the Seahawks was.

1050
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 2: Like the same exact play. It was pretty crazy. The

1051
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 2: same exact player knocked the ball out, went bounced right

1052
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 2: into the same exact player for a touchdown. I thought

1053
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 2: it was a replay when I was watching, it was

1054
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 2: looking away and I was like, wait, did this just

1055
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 2: happen again?

1056
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I mean, the last two weeks the Seahawks

1057
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 4: have put up like they've gotten to thirty in in

1058
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:49,919
Speaker 4: their games, so fricking click.

1059
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 3: It's it's absurd.

1060
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 4: But yeah, all that being said, the the Niners defense

1061
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 4: can't staff anyone anyway, Niners on the road here. I

1062
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 4: just think that this is probably a coin foot game

1063
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 4: to you know, flood beat up teams. Uh Kobett Walton

1064
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 4: is considered playing well, Mac Jones playing well too. But again,

1065
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:14,439
Speaker 4: Niners defense, I think it is gonna wt. Arizona moved

1066
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 4: the ball either way. We saw Arizona.

1067
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 3: You know.

1068
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:19,320
Speaker 4: The one thing at home was there a couple of

1069
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 4: weeks ago, facing that Dallas offense, that mighty Dallas offense.

1070
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 4: They were able to hold him down and then they

1071
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 4: give up to the two scores to the Seahawks. But

1072
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 4: if you will, I mean Donald didn't have a great game.

1073
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 2: I mean only twelve times.

1074
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, but I mean what he lose a fumble?

1075
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:36,799
Speaker 4: I think he threw a pick, so you know, efficiency wise,

1076
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 4: it wasn't Donald's greatest game. So I think this Cardinal

1077
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 4: defense might be a widow underrated.

1078
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 2: Uh, definitely. Hopefully they get like Johnson and Melton back. Yeah,

1079
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:49,440
Speaker 2: Robinson Nolan are banged up, like so their defense is

1080
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 2: paying the which is a bit of a concern, but

1081
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 2: the analysis is going out to three. I'm probably gonnaend

1082
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 2: up playing the.

1083
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:57,439
Speaker 3: Cardinals, yeah, this is yeah.

1084
00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 4: I might end up playing on the spread too. Thought

1085
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 4: about them for six pack, but as of right now,

1086
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 4: we just there's a lot of uncertainty. I think they

1087
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 4: make for a better moneyline dog, but I might end

1088
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:07,839
Speaker 4: up playing them on the spread as well. But either way,

1089
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 4: Cardinals plus one thirty six, Seahawks plus one fifty can

1090
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 4: parway those together for plus four ninety. That was our

1091
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:18,239
Speaker 4: moneylined underdog parway for a Week eleven out Time for

1092
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 4: Anytime Touchdown Parlay presented by DraftKings. We're each gonna choose

1093
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:27,400
Speaker 4: our favorite anytime touchdown score for Week eleven.

1094
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 3: Stuck what you got?

1095
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna go with yours, So I'm just

1096
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 2: gonna throw in a little parlay piece just to sweeten

1097
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 2: the out's a little bit. It's very chalky, like minus

1098
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 2: one fifty ish, but I'm gonna go with Jalen Warren.

1099
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 2: It's hard for me not to see him scoring against

1100
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 2: his Bengals defense. And you don't have Rogers to vultu anything,

1101
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 2: and the Bengals legitimately you can just run at them

1102
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,479
Speaker 2: at will. So if they're just any if they get

1103
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,320
Speaker 2: near the goal line at all in this game, expect

1104
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 2: them to do Warren should find the end zone.

1105
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're talking about giving him more carries, and he's

1106
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,440
Speaker 4: already been getting about seventy five eighty percent of the

1107
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 4: backfield carries over the past months anyway, So yeah, this

1108
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 4: could be a monster game for him. I like it,

1109
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,439
Speaker 4: and then go, I'm going with is it's actually your guy.

1110
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:21,759
Speaker 4: Greg Dortch plus two seventy nine got the news that

1111
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 4: Marvin Harris is gonna miss with appendicitis, So it's gonna be.

1112
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 3: McBride and who knows.

1113
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 4: But not only is dorts gonna be it looks like

1114
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:31,760
Speaker 4: a top two receiver because they Jones.

1115
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 2: Also, yeah, who are they're projected?

1116
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 3: Are they to go?

1117
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to go like more twelve here.

1118
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,760
Speaker 4: But yeah, I would say Higgins. Uh So the receivers

1119
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 4: would be Zay Weaver, and uh Simney for Hoku.

1120
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 3: Usually Weaver would.

1121
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 4: Be the third guy in in that scenario, with Dorts

1122
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:51,239
Speaker 4: probably playing the slot we were outside for Hoku. Really

1123
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:53,799
Speaker 4: hasn't had many snaps, so I'm guessing it will kind

1124
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:55,439
Speaker 4: of continue that way. But yeah, those are the top four,

1125
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 4: so Higgins, Higgins will see probably the most work.

1126
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 3: Is that kind of that that that fifth guy in

1127
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 3: the in the in the uh in the route.

1128
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 4: But either way, Dorsch top two receiver and what did

1129
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 4: he do last week?

1130
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 3: He got a short yardage carry.

1131
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:14,280
Speaker 4: So still don't see anything about Benson coming off fire.

1132
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 4: Bam Knight was a little banged up in that last

1133
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 4: one de Mercado. He's been like moonlighting as a as

1134
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 4: the lead back, but uh, you know, the carrier's kind

1135
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:25,960
Speaker 4: of shifted to night last game. Carter's not a practice

1136
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 4: squad now, So yeah, I think dors you know, running

1137
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 4: the ball.

1138
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 2: Isn't night hurt too.

1139
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, That's what I'm saying.

1140
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 4: He's he got banged up and he led the team

1141
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 4: carries last week, so lead. Yeah, I'm not ruling it

1142
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 4: out because they've been a little more hesitant to use

1143
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 4: him as a receiver than as a like they've used

1144
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 4: him as a runner quite a bit with this coaching staff.

1145
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 4: So I like the odds at plus two eighty because

1146
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 4: I think he has he's probably gonna get seventy five

1147
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 4: to one hundred. Uh, you know, route participation rate. You know,

1148
00:57:57,120 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 4: if he's a slot receiver and they go with like

1149
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 4: Zay Weaver as a full time outside, maybe that's you know,

1150
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 4: he's on the low end. But either way, I think

1151
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 4: he'll probably be a top two guy considering I haven't

1152
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 4: played those other guys at all this year.

1153
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 3: And uh, and then.

1154
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he could get some short yardage carries and he's

1155
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 4: always a threat to break one. So a lot of

1156
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:16,439
Speaker 4: different and this Niners defense is just pobbery. So yeah,

1157
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 4: love love Dorts in this spot parlay Warren Dortch together

1158
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 4: and you get plus five twenty odds. So with a

1159
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 4: greater than five to one, that's ot anytime touchdown parlay

1160
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 4: presented by DraftKings. All right, so before we get out

1161
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 4: of here, a few games we didn't touch on as

1162
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 4: thoughts on Chiefs Broncos.

1163
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 2: I mean this this is the spot screams. Chiefs Broncos

1164
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: have been the I mean, for my money, probably the

1165
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 2: luckiest team in the league. I mean, you're talking about

1166
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,440
Speaker 2: a team that beat the Raiders by three, the Texans

1167
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 2: by three after Stroud gets hurt, the you know, the

1168
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 2: Giants by one after their whole secondor gets hurt. They're

1169
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 2: down thirty in the fourth, the Jets by two, the Eagles,

1170
00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:00,080
Speaker 2: they come all the way back win by four. I

1171
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 2: mean that's basically the resume. Nicks has been horrible. I

1172
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 2: mean across the board, and now you're not fully healthy

1173
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:11,560
Speaker 2: like the Broncos of defensive injuries. No Sir Dan is

1174
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 2: huge and like and no Sir Dan. They probably they

1175
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:18,440
Speaker 2: were they were gonna get carved up by the Texans

1176
00:59:18,440 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 2: and then Shroud gets hurt, and then they played the Raiders,

1177
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 2: who are completely incompetent on offense. But now you're gonna

1178
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:26,000
Speaker 2: play Mahomes and the Chiefs coming off of a bye

1179
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:30,160
Speaker 2: in like I must must win. The problem is the price,

1180
00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 2: like three and a half four, like I wish I

1181
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 2: wanted the light three year with the Chiefs. Maybe a

1182
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 2: good moneyline parlay piece, but the price like for me

1183
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 2: to late like we're we're getting We're just we're starting

1184
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 2: to out to say, like the Broncos are the Chiefs

1185
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 2: are like, in order for me to want to play this,

1186
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 2: like six points better than the Broncos. That's a little aggressive.

1187
00:59:57,200 --> 00:59:59,280
Speaker 2: So everyone knows this is the spot for the Chiefs.

1188
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 2: They're coming off the b The Broncos have been fraudulent,

1189
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 2: but it's just the price. But Chiefs good money line

1190
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 2: parlay piece elsewhere, what else we got? Attackers, packers, packers, packers.

1191
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, like, it looks like Dobbs

1192
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 2: is gonna play. They really missed him at the end

1193
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 2: of that Eagles game because they had to throw to Melton,

1194
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 2: who should be that. You can see why they moved

1195
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:27,720
Speaker 2: in the corner. They had to throw to Melton way

1196
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:31,800
Speaker 2: too much at the end. But their bad. They really

1197
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,280
Speaker 2: need to read back. I think they just need they

1198
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: need to figure out the passing offense. But this is

1199
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 2: a game where you could just hand it off the Jacobs. Yeah,

1200
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 2: the hold run all over the Giants because the Giants

1201
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:45,320
Speaker 2: have no run defense. What are you getting from Jamis? Like,

1202
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: now this offense is to look completely different. Yep, I

1203
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 2: don't know. Uh, it's high errants, Jamis, So I wanted

1204
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 2: to play the under If US was playing, this would

1205
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 2: have been a slam dunk under, Like, how are the

1206
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 2: Giants going to score? They probably weren't, and then the

1207
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 2: Packers were just probably just gonna come out here and

1208
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 2: run the ball. You got. Jenkins is hurt too. I

1209
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 2: think that matters. And there's still no craft. They're still

1210
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 2: trying to figure out their way on offense, and they

1211
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:14,800
Speaker 2: keep dealing with more injuries. So I have no idea

1212
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 2: on that game. I don't mind the Packers as a

1213
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 2: teaser piece. Falcons Panthers, Oh okay, yeah, Like it's a

1214
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 2: tough spot for Atlanta, like coming off an overtime game,

1215
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 2: coming back overseas, back to the States. But you know,

1216
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:36,160
Speaker 2: the last time they were at home, they got embarrassed

1217
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 2: by the Dolphins. The last time they played the Panthers,

1218
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:40,120
Speaker 2: they got embarrassed by the Panthers. I would assume you

1219
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 2: get their best effort here. Still some injuries I'm watching there.

1220
01:01:43,360 --> 01:01:46,560
Speaker 2: But I said this last week with the Colts, the

1221
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:50,680
Speaker 2: run defense for Atlanta is extremely problematic, especially without Diablo.

1222
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:53,920
Speaker 2: We saw Jonathan Taylor run all over them. The Panthers

1223
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:56,200
Speaker 2: aren't thing o Jonathan Tailor, but they still can be

1224
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 2: a very effective rushing offense. The Falcons don't have a

1225
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 2: great home field advanage. Now you have like a divisional

1226
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:03,440
Speaker 2: road dog catching over a field goal with that should

1227
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball. So IM not sure

1228
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: I can lay over three there with Atlanta, And you

1229
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 2: just never know what you're gonna get with the Falcons,

1230
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 2: So no idea there. Texans Titans, I don't I assume

1231
01:02:17,280 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: Stroud's not gonna go, but it sounds like, yeah, he

1232
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 2: didn't practice today. They might get some offensive line and

1233
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 2: back Petriet doesn't look like he's going. The Titans need

1234
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 2: to get healthier on defense like his Simmons gonna go.

1235
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 2: That's huge, Like he just makes such a big difference

1236
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:33,760
Speaker 2: for them, and they got a couple other guys worth

1237
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 2: monitoring on that side of the ball. But the Texans offense,

1238
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:42,280
Speaker 2: especially with Stroud, but even with Mills, they're doing some

1239
01:02:42,360 --> 01:02:46,760
Speaker 2: much better things lately. They're jumbo packages and it looks

1240
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: like Howard will be back this week. What he marks

1241
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 2: his emergence is enormous. He gives he is the best

1242
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 2: back by far, and he gives them juice in the

1243
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:57,200
Speaker 2: passing game as well. So their offense is kind of

1244
01:02:58,320 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 2: trending up. But do I want to lay six and

1245
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:08,320
Speaker 2: a half seven with Davis Mills on the road. No,

1246
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 2: do I want to bet the Titans plus seven against

1247
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 2: this Texans defense? No? So probably a pass, all right.

1248
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 3: That's gonna do it.

1249
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:20,440
Speaker 4: For a week number eleven, Action Network Podcast presented by

1250
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:23,680
Speaker 4: Draft Kings. Thanks for listening. Shout to our sponsor DraftKings again.

1251
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 4: If we want to tail some of the best discussed

1252
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:28,040
Speaker 4: today on a quick slip link in the video and

1253
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 4: podcast description, or visit Action network dot com slash bet now,

1254
01:03:32,360 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 4: check out at playbook on X Fantasy flex h for

1255
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 4: Kerner and I three episodes per week. Stuck, He's on

1256
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 4: BBOC and The Favorites, and he's on at Stucky too.

1257
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 3: I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at those same hands on

1258
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 3: a free award winning action app.

1259
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:57,480
Speaker 4: Until next time, with the digital money let go.

1260
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:08,480
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1261
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1262
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:14,400
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