WEBVTT - Experts Debate Trump's Impact on Immigration Laws (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>When Donald J. Trump began his campaign for president, he

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<v Speaker 1>said that people coming into the United States from Mexico

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<v Speaker 1>were quote bringing drugs, They're bringing crime, their rapists, and

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<v Speaker 1>some I assume are good people unquote. He also said

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<v Speaker 1>that as president, he would build a wall along the

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<v Speaker 1>border with Mexico and that he would get Mexico to

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<v Speaker 1>pay for it. He first called for a bandoned immigration

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<v Speaker 1>by Muslims, then called for a suspension of immigration from

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<v Speaker 1>countries that sponsored terrorism and extreme vetting of immigrants to

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. Throughout the race, undocumented immigration remained a

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<v Speaker 1>central theme of his candidacy, and he discussed it during

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<v Speaker 1>the third presidential debate. One of my first acts will

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<v Speaker 1>be to get all of the drug lords, all of

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<v Speaker 1>the bad ones. We have some bad, bad people in

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<v Speaker 1>this country that have to go out. We're gonna get

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<v Speaker 1>them out. We're going to secure the border, and once

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<v Speaker 1>the border is secured, at a later date will make

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<v Speaker 1>a determination as to the rest. But we have some

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<v Speaker 1>bad ombres here and we're gonna get him out. Today

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to be discussing what policies President elect Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is likely to pursue on immigration issues. After January twenty

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<v Speaker 1>when he is sworn in. Our guests are Harland York,

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<v Speaker 1>an immigration law expert who is the founding partner of

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<v Speaker 1>Herland York and Associates. And Stephen Lylegomsky, Professor emeritus at

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<v Speaker 1>Washington University Law School, who was senior counsel to the

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Welcome to both of you, Stephen,

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<v Speaker 1>Why don't we start out by talking about what we

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<v Speaker 1>can expect President elect Trump to do immediately upon taking

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<v Speaker 1>office about immigration. Well, thank you for having me on.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the first things that I would predict he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to do, because he pled to do this during

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<v Speaker 1>the campaign, as one of the logistically easiest things to

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<v Speaker 1>do is issue a memo or have the Homeland Security

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary issue a memo formerly resending the dock of program

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<v Speaker 1>the docer programs to one in which people who were

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<v Speaker 1>brought here as young children, had who have lived here

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<v Speaker 1>several years and who passed various back ground screening checks

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<v Speaker 1>and so on, would be very low priorities for removal

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<v Speaker 1>and would be permitted to work during the time that

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<v Speaker 1>the low priorities are still in effect. So he could

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<v Speaker 1>just issue a memo revoking data. One tricky issue if

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<v Speaker 1>he does that is what happens to the people who

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<v Speaker 1>currently hold it. It's one thing to say we won't

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<v Speaker 1>issue any further grants of dacca. But if he seeks

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<v Speaker 1>to withdraw the work permise of the people who already

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<v Speaker 1>have it, uh, there's a very complicated procedure for doing so.

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<v Speaker 1>The regulations say you have to send an individual notice

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<v Speaker 1>to each of what would be more than seven hundred

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people. You have to give them reasons, you have

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<v Speaker 1>to give them fifteen days in which to respond. And

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<v Speaker 1>even if you do all that and formally revoke it,

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<v Speaker 1>collecting these pieces of paper that provide optimization to work

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<v Speaker 1>as another matter, and that would be very, very difficult.

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<v Speaker 1>My guests would be he's going to do this, but

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<v Speaker 1>allow those who currently have data to continue to enjoy

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<v Speaker 1>it for until they expire on their own, which would

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<v Speaker 1>be at most two years from now. Carlan, you have

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<v Speaker 1>have an immigration law prid this in New Jersey. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm interested to know both whether you agree with what

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<v Speaker 1>Stephen just said about his expect expectation and also what

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<v Speaker 1>just what you've heard from your clients and perspective clients

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<v Speaker 1>over the last few days. I understand you've you've heard

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<v Speaker 1>from a lot of them. Sure, thanks very much for

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<v Speaker 1>having me. Yeah, I think it's reasonable to conclude that

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<v Speaker 1>what Stephen just said is foreseeable. I think we all

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<v Speaker 1>knew as immigration advocates in the United States that the

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<v Speaker 1>DACA program could see an end. However, when the DACA

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<v Speaker 1>program started in I cautioned everyone who we personally represented

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<v Speaker 1>in that process. In my firm, which as you say,

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<v Speaker 1>works out of New Jersey but handles cases all over

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<v Speaker 1>the US, we let our DACA recipients know that this

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<v Speaker 1>was not a permanent program. And there are many many

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<v Speaker 1>programs historically like the DACA program, that do have an

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<v Speaker 1>end date insight, sometimes it's not firm. These programs do

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<v Speaker 1>come and go under all presidencies. And regarding your other question,

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<v Speaker 1>is far as what we've actually hurt from our clients. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there has obviously been a bit of heightened anxiety for

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<v Speaker 1>a portion of immigrants in the United States, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>certainly hearing that. However, I have been reminding everyone of

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<v Speaker 1>the following. Twenty years ago, when I was a young

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<v Speaker 1>immigration lawyer starting out, Bill Clinton signed the Illegal Immigration

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<v Speaker 1>Reform an Immigrant Responsibility Act on September thirty and all

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<v Speaker 1>of that periods veteran immigration attorneys who I spoke with

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<v Speaker 1>as a relatively new lawyer, we're telling me it was

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the world. All immigration law was being eviscerated.

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<v Speaker 1>Courts were being stripped at their discretionary powers to hear cases.

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<v Speaker 1>The aggravated felony definitions were widely expanded to three and

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<v Speaker 1>ten year bars were placed into the law, and so

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<v Speaker 1>on and so forth. And we've been suffering with the

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<v Speaker 1>effects of all of those rules that became law in

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<v Speaker 1>April of for the better part of two decades. And

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<v Speaker 1>we've been fighting as an organization in the American Immigration

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<v Speaker 1>Layers Association, thousands of us have been dealing with that reality.

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<v Speaker 1>And one final thought is that when George Bush left office,

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<v Speaker 1>the pending number of cases nationally in the deportation context

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<v Speaker 1>and the immigration courts was that about a hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>eighty six thousand. Under Barack Obama, it's tripled to right

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<v Speaker 1>now five one plus thousands. So well, it's not just

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<v Speaker 1>it's not just the you know what, we're what the

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<v Speaker 1>country is going to do about people who are here

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<v Speaker 1>undocumented that President electrump has been talking about. He's also

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<v Speaker 1>sketched out a number of things about how he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to stop illegal undocumented immigrants from coming into the country, Steve.

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<v Speaker 1>The most prominent of these, of course, is the wall.

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<v Speaker 1>How likely is it he's actually going to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to build a wall and get Mexico to pay for it? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think both are extremely unlikely, and by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>I agree with everything that hardam I just said extremely well. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Two reasons for that. One is that it would be

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<v Speaker 1>prohibitively expensive. Despite Mr Tom's claims, all the empirical estimates

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<v Speaker 1>put the number somewhere between fifteen and forty two billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars just to construct the wall initially, and that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>take account of us as sums of money that would

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<v Speaker 1>be be required for annual upkeep. Trump has said he

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<v Speaker 1>wants the wall to be a thousand miles long and

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<v Speaker 1>high and made a solid concrete, which is unrealistic. Congress

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<v Speaker 1>will never fund uh that kind of wall, and Mexico

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<v Speaker 1>certainly won't pay for it. If I had to make

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<v Speaker 1>a guess, it would be that President Trump, in order

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<v Speaker 1>to say face, might be able to strike some type

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<v Speaker 1>of deal. Is Congressional Republican leaders whereby they agree to

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<v Speaker 1>some modest extension of the existing border fence. Um, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard for me to imagine anything more drastic than that, Harlan.

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<v Speaker 1>How about the Donald Trump's comments about banning Muslims from

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<v Speaker 1>coming in the country. He's he's modified that, But is

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<v Speaker 1>that something that uh uh, You know, Muslims who are

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<v Speaker 1>either in the country or want to come in the country,

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<v Speaker 1>or are people who come from a heavily Islamic countries

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<v Speaker 1>should be legitimately worried about. Look, I will again go

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<v Speaker 1>back to reality and the history of my time twenty

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<v Speaker 1>years in this practice. In the aftermath the nine eleven attacks,

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<v Speaker 1>the government created, of course, the Department of Homeland Security,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of its first measures, even before DHS had

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<v Speaker 1>its formal let's say, initiatives placed, was the Special Registration Program,

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<v Speaker 1>where nationals in four different enumerated groups were given notice nations.

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<v Speaker 1>During the presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump promised to overhaul

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<v Speaker 1>the nation's approach to immigration and take a hard line

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<v Speaker 1>on undocumented immigrants and also on people seeking to come

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<v Speaker 1>into the country. He uh promised that he would um

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<v Speaker 1>first suspend immigration of Muslims, then spoke about suspending immigration

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<v Speaker 1>from countries that sponsored terrorism, then said he was going

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<v Speaker 1>to engage an extreme vetting of all immigrants where his

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<v Speaker 1>administration would We're talking about what to expect from the

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<v Speaker 1>president elect when he takes office with immigration lawyer Harlan

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<v Speaker 1>York and Professor Stephen Lagomsky of Washington University Law School. Harlan,

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<v Speaker 1>we were talking about what realistic to expect in terms of, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the suspension of the possible suspension of immigration from countries

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<v Speaker 1>that are predominantly Muslim, What do you think is going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen? As I was starting to say, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we had a program like that already in the aftermath

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<v Speaker 1>of nine eleven. It was called Special Registration, and at

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<v Speaker 1>that point in time, in September of O two, the

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<v Speaker 1>Bush administration put in place a program that grouped I

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<v Speaker 1>think I said twenty six before the commercial breaks, actually

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five countries back then nationals from those countries, twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four of which were predominantly Muslim countries. And the registration

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<v Speaker 1>program went on for many years and mails over the

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<v Speaker 1>age of sixteen were required to register with immigration. I

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<v Speaker 1>remember taking down people, taking people that is, down to

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<v Speaker 1>the immigration buildings um to register them. And then the

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<v Speaker 1>program essentially was suspended because the government, I guess, determined

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<v Speaker 1>that it wasn't really effective in terms of the I

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<v Speaker 1>guess vetting, if you will, to use the word that

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Trump has used. So it's nothing new so far

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<v Speaker 1>if I look back on the last fifteen or sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>months of his campaign. UM, I note that a journalist

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<v Speaker 1>pointed out recently, and I think I put this on

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<v Speaker 1>my Twitter that Mr said many things, like all political

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<v Speaker 1>candidates have said that contradict one another. I just don't

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<v Speaker 1>know in reality when you look at recent history and

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<v Speaker 1>you look at what they're talking about doing. People who

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<v Speaker 1>think about vetting, if you will, well, securing the homeland

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<v Speaker 1>we all would agree is a very important thing. That's

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<v Speaker 1>why we have a Department of Homeland Security. At the

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<v Speaker 1>same time, we've had recent historical examples of types of

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<v Speaker 1>things like this already in place, and whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>they're successful or not is subject to controversy on or debate. Stephen,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to have a Republican president and a Republican Congress. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that improve the prospects for some sort of comprehensive legislation? Uh?

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<v Speaker 1>And if so, what will that look like? Yeah, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a great question. Um, I tend to think it might

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<v Speaker 1>improve the chance that some type of comprehensive bill um

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<v Speaker 1>simply because so much of the opposition of the previous

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<v Speaker 1>bill came from Republicans who are bent on forting just

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<v Speaker 1>about anything that President Obama was supporting. They hopefully will

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<v Speaker 1>be more supportive of a good comprehensive bill if President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump introduces it. My guess is it would somewhat follow

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<v Speaker 1>the lines of the bill of the Senate pass in thirteen,

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<v Speaker 1>which had three main pillars to it. One was massive

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<v Speaker 1>increases in both border and interior enforcement. A second big

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<v Speaker 1>pillar was a pass to permanent residents status an ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>citizenship for a large chunk of the current undocumented population.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the third main pillar was reform of the

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<v Speaker 1>criteria for legal immigration to the US. The one thing

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<v Speaker 1>that I can imagine having to give up if the

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<v Speaker 1>bills introduced this time, uh, it concerns timing. There are

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<v Speaker 1>many Republicans who were saying we might be able to

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<v Speaker 1>consider legalization down the past if we can first quote

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<v Speaker 1>secure the border. That to me is very problematic because

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<v Speaker 1>the boarder will never be one secure. He will never

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<v Speaker 1>be able to prevent people from answering illegally or from

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<v Speaker 1>overstaying visas UH. And if legalization is conditioned on that happening,

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<v Speaker 1>that it would never happen to It would be hard

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<v Speaker 1>to define when that would take effect, but it is

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<v Speaker 1>possible that in the new political environments some pass will

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<v Speaker 1>be found. Can also just comment on the previous questions,

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<v Speaker 1>I thought hardly answered it very well. A couple of

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<v Speaker 1>points on the Muslim ban UM. From a purely political standpoint,

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<v Speaker 1>I think UH President of Left Trump is going to

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<v Speaker 1>have to do something in order to avoid being accused

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<v Speaker 1>of preaching his campaign promises. UM. I don't think he

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<v Speaker 1>will issue an order that explicitly bans Muslims by name.

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<v Speaker 1>The reason I don't think that is that even though

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<v Speaker 1>there is a provision of the statue which gives the

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<v Speaker 1>President of the power to ban any class of aliens

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<v Speaker 1>or class of aliens have the way it's word it,

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<v Speaker 1>whenever he finds that their admission would be detrimental to

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<v Speaker 1>the interests of the U S. I know that sounds

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<v Speaker 1>a very broad grant of power, But if the president

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<v Speaker 1>were to try to do that on the basis of religion,

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<v Speaker 1>in particular to single out of particular religion, then a

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<v Speaker 1>serious constitutional question would be raised. And so rather than

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<v Speaker 1>bar Muslims, what I could imagine him doing a saying

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<v Speaker 1>for immigration from the following countries, and then they could

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<v Speaker 1>be a list. We will uh, we will increase the

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<v Speaker 1>number of security checks, although our practical matter, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know what he could add to the many checks we

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<v Speaker 1>already have. Thank you to Professor Stephen Lonomsky of Washington

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<v Speaker 1>University Law School and immigration law expert Harlan Yorke coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>President elect Trunk, also besides immigration, talked about prosecuting Hillary

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<v Speaker 1>Clinton about her use of a private email server. Should

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<v Speaker 1>President Obama pardon her to prevent prosecution. This is Bloomberg