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Speaker 2: seen an email as well. Joining us in his busy
Speaker 2: day Gene Munster right now on Nvidia. He is with
Speaker 2: Deep Water Asset Man Management Gene. Right before the earnings
Speaker 2: idiocy yesterday afternoon, the pro stepped in Gene Monster with
Speaker 2: I think the absolute smartest insight I've seen. We mentioned
Speaker 2: it earlier with Man Deep Sing and that the purchasing
Speaker 2: transaction people for Nvidia are not so much going to
Speaker 2: play hardball, but they're going to say to their customers,
Speaker 2: don't give me this you're not going to buy the
Speaker 2: next revenue stream of older chips waiting for the new chip.
Speaker 3: You don't get the new.
Speaker 2: Chip unless you buy the old chip. Expand on that,
Speaker 2: gene Monster.
Speaker 4: The Osborne effect, and that of course is when you
Speaker 4: have an existing product that is going to be replaced
Speaker 4: by a new product, that new product is not yet available,
Speaker 4: and historically that causes the existing product sales to dip significantly.
Speaker 4: We see that companies over the years, they'll blow up
Speaker 4: ahead of a new product cycle. In the case of Nvidia,
Speaker 4: they were really astute in terms of how they have
Speaker 4: been communicating this to customers over the past three months.
Speaker 4: That was the time three months ago when they announced
Speaker 4: this new Blackwell chip and they said, exactly like you mentioned,
Speaker 4: if you guys want the new chip of this fall,
Speaker 4: you got to keep buying ours seeing Hopper chip. And
Speaker 4: that in fact did happen.
Speaker 2: It worked. And I want to point out here because
Speaker 2: gene Monster's far too young, Lisa Matteo's grandfather probably had
Speaker 2: one the Osborne effect. It's not some NBA at Northwestern.
Speaker 2: The Osborne effect is the Osborne computer that I spent
Speaker 2: two four hundred and ninety five dollars on forty fifty
Speaker 2: years ago, and Gene Muster knows that's probably fifteen thousand dollars.
Speaker 2: I'm the only one in the world still alive actually
Speaker 2: bought an Osbourne computer.
Speaker 3: Gene Muster.
Speaker 2: I went over to Nvidia yesterday and I mentioned this
Speaker 2: to Paul Sweeney earlier that what I sense here radically
Speaker 2: different is I don't sense ego driven tech boy in
Speaker 2: the leadership of Nvidia. They're CFO statement, they're accounting clarity,
Speaker 2: the stock split, the dividend lift and all that. Are
Speaker 2: they rapidly trying to be a mature company to join
Speaker 2: something like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, I mean they are a mature company. They're going
Speaker 4: to do over one hundred billion revenue this year, call it.
Speaker 4: It's going to be approaching the three trillion dollar market cap,
Speaker 4: one of the top three companies. And they're acting like it.
Speaker 4: They do not act like people who are trying to
Speaker 4: pump up a theme. They're being the results are backing
Speaker 4: it up. The guidance is backing it up. They beat
Speaker 4: a high bar by six percent, they guide it up
Speaker 4: July by five percent, and those guidance and I think
Speaker 4: this is a sign of a mature management team. They
Speaker 4: keep exceeding. Over the last four quarters, they've been exceeding
Speaker 4: those expectations, and so that discipline around guidance is yet
Speaker 4: another example I think of how they are being mature
Speaker 4: about this, and they got good reason to be feeling
Speaker 4: good about things for for two reasons. One is that
Speaker 4: they've got products that no one else has, and separately
Speaker 4: is they're still in the early innings of what is
Speaker 4: going to be the most breathtaking shift in technology that
Speaker 4: we've seen in the past one hundred years.
Speaker 5: Gene, you've been so out in front of this. You
Speaker 5: know a lot of what I know about this AI
Speaker 5: business I learned from you. But talk to us about
Speaker 5: the competitive environment here. I mean, I was going to say,
Speaker 5: they're not I mean, where are the competitors here? Can't
Speaker 5: they come up with a chip that's comparable to compete
Speaker 5: with these guys.
Speaker 4: I remember, we're invested in a deep water investing with
Speaker 4: private and public companies, and one of our private companies
Speaker 4: builds chips, and we invest in this company, in AI
Speaker 4: chip company, it's called Rain in twenty eighteen. And when
Speaker 4: we think about their business, they do not sip Capex
Speaker 4: they gulp Capex and when you think about the competitive
Speaker 4: set here, it is really limited to a small number
Speaker 4: of companies that can invest tens of billion dollars, billions
Speaker 4: of dollars a year in two building these applications. And
Speaker 4: so I think that that's one big piece. There are
Speaker 4: kind of some glimmers of competition, most of those coming
Speaker 4: from the hyperscalers like Google and Microsoft are working on
Speaker 4: their own chips. But for the most part, Paul, they're
Speaker 4: running the table. And just one more piece on the
Speaker 4: competitive threat. Please, three years ago, Elon must talked about
Speaker 4: their Dojo chip, their Dojo computer that was going to
Speaker 4: power autonomy on Tesla, and yesterday during the call, the
Speaker 4: cfo's lead comments led with both Tesla and Xai. Of course,
Speaker 4: both my Elon companies, those embracing the Nvidia chips, and
Speaker 4: so even the companies that want to compete with them
Speaker 4: realize that the return on investment for video's highest.
Speaker 2: Geane would get a really good comment, a respectful comment
Speaker 2: out on our live chat on YouTube. Ryan, thank you
Speaker 2: so much, and Ryan says it's a great comment. Please
Speaker 2: move on from Nvidia. There is other news except gene Monster.
Speaker 2: There isn't explain to Ryan and me the Nvidia effect
Speaker 2: on everything else out there, not what it means for Microsoft,
Speaker 2: not what it means for some tech fanboy in some
Speaker 2: cappuccino place with.
Speaker 3: You out on the West Coast.
Speaker 2: What does Nvidia mean for Lisa Matteo, Ryan or Tom Keane.
Speaker 4: In Vidia's current trajectory of the business, the just reported
Speaker 4: April quarter means that we are moving more quickly to
Speaker 4: artificial general intelligence. And when we hit that, the game
Speaker 4: changes for all companies. Every information worker, every technical worker
Speaker 4: is going to be impacted by this. And so the
Speaker 4: reason why we're so hyper focused on what Nvidia is
Speaker 4: doing is that they are really the leading, the very
Speaker 4: tip indicator in terms of the speed and the rate
Speaker 4: of change that we're going to see around AI. And
Speaker 4: that's why it matters.
Speaker 2: Should they replace I'm just picking the names Cisco or
Speaker 2: Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
Speaker 3: Is it now? This is the moment where in video
Speaker 3: is like a doubt stock.
Speaker 2: It should be.
Speaker 4: I mean, this is the guard I think has changed
Speaker 4: a couple or a year or so ago, And I
Speaker 4: think the bigger question is do you think that this
Speaker 4: will continue? I absolutely believe what we saw last night
Speaker 4: as an indication that this is going to continue. I
Speaker 4: still believe we're in the front of a three to
Speaker 4: five year bull market powered by AI that's going to
Speaker 4: end in a spectacular bubble. But the front end of
Speaker 4: that that bull market is going to be quite exciting.
Speaker 2: Let us know when the bubble's near. Geane call back.
Speaker 2: Please let us please help Lisa with the bubble.
Speaker 3: Gane monster out front of the bubble. Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: With deep water asset, Benjamin, let's talk to an adult here, Yes,
Speaker 2: particularly with.
Speaker 3: All that's going on with nvidiot.
Speaker 2: The new highs Nastak futures up two hundred and eight points.
Speaker 2: Amy was Silverman is expert. I'm trying to explain the
Speaker 2: dynamics in the nuances expectations. Amy was silverman on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg where we on the high ground on this. I
Speaker 2: bring up ENVDA equity, OVDV and I can look at
Speaker 2: the SKEW, I can look at the term, I can
Speaker 2: look at the three D service and.
Speaker 3: I'm really not sure what it says.
Speaker 2: Could you use your tools to glean a nuance of
Speaker 2: the expectations of nvidio?
Speaker 1: Sure, good morning guys. So look, you know in video
Speaker 1: is one that we've been watching with baited breath, obviously,
Speaker 1: And the super interesting thing was going into earnings last night,
Speaker 1: the options market was implying about an eight and a
Speaker 1: half percent move. So far, we actually they haven't beaten that,
Speaker 1: but you know, the day is young. And the second
Speaker 1: thing I'd say was we didn't have much right tail
Speaker 1: tom which is super interesting for in Vidio because that's
Speaker 1: one where we've seen a lot of right tail chase.
Speaker 1: That sentiment wasn't there. What I think we really need
Speaker 1: to watch today is that that right tail is game
Speaker 1: on because of everything we saw during earnings last night.
Speaker 2: Does it fold over into the rest of the magnificent
Speaker 2: forty two or the nastic one hundred. I mean, folks,
Speaker 2: I think we all understand left tails gloom, right tails
Speaker 2: a certain confidence. Does this a new regime of confidence
Speaker 2: from the Nvidia announcement?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Look, you know one thing we've talked about is
Speaker 1: not just looking at the kind of OGAI names like
Speaker 1: in Vidio, but to look at the adjacent names because
Speaker 1: in some cases that ball is still less expensive and
Speaker 1: you still get that right tail chase. So you know,
Speaker 1: one thing we've been talking about is don't just look
Speaker 1: at Nvidia, look at the other names like ADI or AMD,
Speaker 1: Microsoft others that also have AI conference is going on,
Speaker 1: because a lot of times you'll see that proxy correlated
Speaker 1: move Tom of the right tail spot up volatility of
Speaker 1: not just for Nvidia, but for that entire space when
Speaker 1: the enthusiasm starts to bubble.
Speaker 5: Tom Amy Moosilverman is a graduate of Prince University, So
Speaker 5: I'm dying to ask her what her favorite sandwich is
Speaker 5: at Hogi Haven, but I'm gonna be professional and not
Speaker 5: go there. Amy, can you just define for this non
Speaker 5: derivatives person what right tail and left tail is?
Speaker 1: Sure, Okay, I have to say it's the meatball sub.
Speaker 1: I just have to put it in there because Princeton
Speaker 1: Princeton Reunions are this weekend, so I definitely have tigers
Speaker 1: on my mind. But look, right tail is the idea
Speaker 1: normal distribution of that reach for upside. You know, that's
Speaker 1: where we see the fomo and the momo. That's where
Speaker 1: we see the call demand. And the left tail, which
Speaker 1: unfortunately has been dead for quite a while, is your
Speaker 1: equity skew. It's that demand for downside protection, which apparently
Speaker 1: these days nobody seems to want, Hey.
Speaker 5: Amy, I'm just looking at the you know, Tom forces
Speaker 5: us on a daily basis to look at the VICS,
Speaker 5: and it's now below twelve, firmly below twelve. What does
Speaker 5: that tell you?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, yeah, we hit sub twelve. We're circling eleven.
Speaker 1: You know, I'd say, look, there's two things. One, index
Speaker 1: volatility has been quite low for some time. There are
Speaker 1: some artificial reasons why this is happening, and there's just
Speaker 1: some economic reasons because things look okay, because the breadth
Speaker 1: of the market still, you know, is very much mag
Speaker 1: seven driven, even if the breath that's doing okay. But
Speaker 1: look the rise of zerodte, the idea that almost fifty
Speaker 1: percent of all SPX volume these days is zero day
Speaker 1: to xpray trading. Look, that does matter, and that is
Speaker 1: influencing these headline numbers, because VIX is just a thirty
Speaker 1: day weighted average of imply volt across calls and puts.
Speaker 2: Is how do you define exuberance? I mean, financial media
Speaker 2: people toss around exuberance. We read it from Schiller, we
Speaker 2: read it from green Span. How does Amy wouse over
Speaker 2: and measure exuberance?
Speaker 1: I can actually give you the technical definition that we
Speaker 1: use it's twenty five delta put minus twenty five delta
Speaker 1: call implied ball over at moneyball. If that number, if
Speaker 1: that number is inverted, right, if it goes negative, it
Speaker 1: means that the call implied volatilities outwighing put demand. It's
Speaker 1: something we actually look at quantitatively on a systematic basis
Speaker 1: for signals.
Speaker 3: Okay, what you.
Speaker 2: Just got there, folks, is an insight into the adult
Speaker 2: world of derivatives. They take the enthusiasm of the call up,
Speaker 2: they take the enthusiasm of the put down, and then
Speaker 2: they compare it to the enthusiasm at the point the
Speaker 2: center point. I do, okay there, I think it is Sheldon.
Speaker 2: Sheldonnatenburg's in Chicago, going time. Just shut up and let
Speaker 2: Amy talk. Amy, what when you write your research note
Speaker 2: for Monday or frankly to get into June thirty, what
Speaker 2: are you going to say about the signals you see
Speaker 2: of expectation.
Speaker 1: You know, one thing I'm going to be running the
Speaker 1: numbers on today is how much of that coll exuberance
Speaker 1: which we just defined there is going skew inverted again?
Speaker 1: Because when we get into these cycles of momentum, begets momentum.
Speaker 1: It's very hard to stop that train. That's why it
Speaker 1: was super interesting to me that we didn't see it
Speaker 1: coming into Nvidia. The question now is if it will
Speaker 1: start to inflect because you know that stock split it
Speaker 1: really gets the retail going. It doesn't seem like it
Speaker 1: would from a corporate finance one oh one. But we
Speaker 1: saw the same thing happen with Tesla because you start
Speaker 1: to get new periods of participation too.
Speaker 5: Amy for better or worse, this is an election year.
Speaker 5: Do you see trading patterns in your derivatives market pick
Speaker 5: up change more for a little bit here in an
Speaker 5: election year? Because boy, you know, depending upon who wins
Speaker 5: in November can have an impact on financial markets broadly defined.
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I'll tell you one scenario that investors have
Speaker 1: started to toss around as an exogenous risk. So it's
Speaker 1: not the idea of if Trump or Biden wins, it's
Speaker 1: basically the idea of a contested election. This is something
Speaker 1: our chief strategist has talked about as well. But the
Speaker 1: issue is when you get an actual contested election where
Speaker 1: it is unclear who the winner is come November, then
Speaker 1: essentially your Vick's term structure isn't pricing that right it's
Speaker 1: pricing a hump for elections itself. It's not pricing a
Speaker 1: two thousand style question mark. And that's where I think
Speaker 1: we could see a pocket of volatility that isn't baked
Speaker 1: into the left tail, and that could be concerning to investors.
Speaker 2: Amy with Silverman, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate
Speaker 2: it this morning to reset folks. For those of you
Speaker 2: who just joining us on applecarplay on YouTube around the nation,
Speaker 2: Good morning, Bloomberg Radio eleven three to zero, the Vicks
Speaker 2: under twelve eleven point six one.
Speaker 3: That's an HOLU with Silverman number.
Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller from Brown University joins us right now. Wendy's
Speaker 2: a cottage industry figuring out how the Conservatives ran to
Speaker 2: the middle to finally get elected. And it basically, you know,
Speaker 2: back in ancient history, very old water down in flames.
Speaker 2: And then Reagan went out anything and he lost to
Speaker 2: Gerald Ford, and I remember that clearly. And then all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, Reagan defeats Carter, and the whole mood
Speaker 2: was to go out and find the Reagan Democrats for
Speaker 2: the president. Where are the Biden Republicans?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean the Biden Republicans are people who now
Speaker 6: call themselves independents because they don't want to be associated
Speaker 6: with Donald Trump. I mean, so you know, we had
Speaker 6: independence before. We always have people who switched their votes,
Speaker 6: but that number has grown over time, not that much,
Speaker 6: but maybe five to eight percent. And that five and
Speaker 6: eight percent is really after twenty sixteen, where they can't
Speaker 6: go back and vote for Trump in twenty twenty. So
Speaker 6: they call themselves independence, but they vote for Republicans for
Speaker 6: Senate and House and at the state level. So that's
Speaker 6: the bubble of people who formerly known as Republicans that
Speaker 6: Biden wants to remind that they rejected Trump a couple
Speaker 6: of times already our Trump want to be used in
Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, and therefore if they should come back
Speaker 6: to him. And you know, this is such a precarious
Speaker 6: election in the sense that really we don't know what
Speaker 6: it will actually hinge on in October November. Right, the
Speaker 6: economy is generally very good, except for inflation, but very good,
Speaker 6: and we don't see a lot of indicators that's going
Speaker 6: to change a lot between now and November, at least
Speaker 6: with the unemployment. Right, So what is going to be
Speaker 6: the issue or is there even a single issue? Is
Speaker 6: it just now multiple issues to different groups of voters.
Speaker 2: Can you imagine Nicky Haley falls on the sword ye
Speaker 2: decides she's going to vote for Trump. But can you imagine,
Speaker 2: Professor Schiller, that the people that support Nicky Haley will
Speaker 2: then go over and support President Biden.
Speaker 3: Can you make that leap?
Speaker 6: It all depends on how this summer unfolds with Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: I mean, Donald Trump has been relatively restrained, either either
Speaker 6: by court order or because his campaign is doing a
Speaker 6: good job of that. But you can image it. That's
Speaker 6: certainly at the convention and afterwards he's going to let
Speaker 6: loose because he's already won the nomination again and he
Speaker 6: thinks he's going to win. He's up in the polls.
Speaker 6: He's not going to be controllable. And the question is
Speaker 6: how bad does that get and what kind of vision
Speaker 6: does that present for the future for anybody who didn't vote.
Speaker 2: For him before?
Speaker 6: I mean, do you really want him back? So to me,
Speaker 6: they're still unknown. I think they're going to be the
Speaker 6: undecided in the polling in October November, and it's undecided
Speaker 6: about whether they're going to vote, not who they're going
Speaker 6: to vote for. They're not going to vote for Trump.
Speaker 6: They're not going back to Trump. So that's the thing
Speaker 6: for Biden. But again, things like forgiving more student loans
Speaker 6: when there are student protests is bad politics. That's just
Speaker 6: bad politics. But Biden has not seemed to care about
Speaker 6: that much in the last couple of years. He just
Speaker 6: does what he thinks is the right thing to do.
Speaker 5: So, Wendy Hear, here's a question. It's just a really
Speaker 5: broad question. Where are the pre twenty fifteen I'm thinking
Speaker 5: the day before former President Trump came down the escalation
Speaker 5: at Trump Ploset. Where is that Republican Party today?
Speaker 6: I think as a party, that party is gone. That
Speaker 6: party is erased as a sort of functioning powerful party.
Speaker 6: It doesn't dictate policy at the state level anymore in
Speaker 6: state legislatures. It doesn't control the House of Representatives anymore.
Speaker 6: There are a few holdouts in the Senate, but you
Speaker 6: can hear the voices of the most conservative senators in Bolden.
Speaker 6: Rick Scott just announced senator from Florida who's running for reelection.
Speaker 6: He must be quite confident that he's going to win
Speaker 6: that race, that he's going to put in for a
Speaker 6: Senate majority leader against John Cornyn and John Thune are
Speaker 6: not liberal, but they're considered more mainstream established a Republican.
Speaker 6: But he's going to run as kind of a Trump guy.
Speaker 6: And you can see how the Trump wing of the
Speaker 6: party is taking over all of the mechanisms of government.
Speaker 6: And when parties cease to control government, they cease to
Speaker 6: be able to function and deliver for their constituents. So
Speaker 6: that wing of the party functionally is dying. It's not dead.
Speaker 6: So that's the big question mark whether that happened, you know.
Speaker 6: So that's the thing that Republicans have to ask themselves.
Speaker 6: If Trump wins again, it's the nail in the coffin
Speaker 6: for the establishment Republican party. And that's just a fact.
Speaker 6: So how do they how boil are they to that
Speaker 6: version of the party. And I don't think they even
Speaker 6: know the answer that question, all right.
Speaker 5: So for former President Trump, it doesn't seem like any
Speaker 5: of his legal issues, including the case in New York
Speaker 5: City at the moment, has any real impact on his
Speaker 5: political standing. It's just shocking to me. But is that
Speaker 5: kind of where we are?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, you know, even after January sixth, I mean,
Speaker 6: his own party sort of got mad at him, for
Speaker 6: two weeks and then they all went tomorrow Largo and
Speaker 6: many of them, Kevin McCarthy included, to say, okay, we
Speaker 6: forgive you. And now they're showing up in New York
Speaker 6: to say we're standing by you. I mean, it's a
Speaker 6: new age of politics where there doesn't seem to be
Speaker 6: a limit on what a politician can do without penalty
Speaker 6: in the polls at least. But remember Donald Trump lost
Speaker 6: the election in twenty twenty and his surrogate lost the
Speaker 6: election in twenty twenty two, and we're forgetting that history.
Speaker 6: So you know, the idea that he's going to win
Speaker 6: again easily or his surrogates are going to win again easily.
Speaker 6: That defies the last couple of years of history in
Speaker 6: terms of our elections.
Speaker 2: Why can't we have an election length? Like the British
Speaker 2: professor Schiller. There's got to be some thesis at Brown
Speaker 2: University over how do we take a three year extravaganza
Speaker 2: and dash it down to six, seven, eight weeks?
Speaker 3: How do we do that?
Speaker 6: Well? So the reason I think you probably already know
Speaker 6: the answer. I think it's rhetorical, is that the development
Speaker 6: of mass based political parties, starting with Andrew Jackson, but
Speaker 6: going all the way and then have parties controlling government.
Speaker 6: As government gets bigger, there's more to control, more to
Speaker 6: give out to your loyal, loyal people. So parties become
Speaker 6: a business and organizations and primaries are good for the
Speaker 6: business because then people stay in the organization.
Speaker 3: Parties.
Speaker 6: You know, parties say, oh you lost control, but they
Speaker 6: control the primaries. So it builds up the party to
Speaker 6: have the primary system. And that's why we have such
Speaker 6: a long long campaign with Martin van Buren ran today.
Speaker 3: Would he be a Republican or a Democrat?
Speaker 6: Well, you know he was. It's funny because in those
Speaker 6: days they were Democrat Republicans. So it's very confusing. But
Speaker 6: you know, in the meantime, let's look at the signals
Speaker 6: that we're getting from these state the state Senate races,
Speaker 6: in other words, that US Senate races in the swing states.
Speaker 6: Watch those and watch the poll numbers over the summer
Speaker 6: and see if those Democrats are holding on. And if
Speaker 6: they're holding on, there's more hope for bidden.
Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller of Brown University truly one of our definitive textbooks.
Speaker 3: On civics in America.
Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller from Brown University joins us right now, Wendy's
Speaker 2: a cottage industry figuring out how the Conservatives ran to
Speaker 2: the middle to finally get elected. And it basically, you know,
Speaker 2: back in ancient history, Barry Goldwater down in flames, and
Speaker 2: then Reagan went out anything and he lost to Gerald Ford,
Speaker 2: and I remember that clearly. And then all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: Reagan defeats Carter, and the whole mood was to go
Speaker 2: out and find the Reagan Democrats for the president. Where
Speaker 2: are the Biden Republicans?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean the Biden Republicans are people who now
Speaker 6: call themselves independents because they don't want to be associated
Speaker 6: with Donald Trump. I mean, so you know, we had
Speaker 6: independence before. We always have people who switched their votes,
Speaker 6: but that number has grown over time, not that much,
Speaker 6: but maybe five to eight percent. And that five and
Speaker 6: eight percent is really after twenty sixteen, where they can't
Speaker 6: go back and vote for Trump in twenty twenty. So
Speaker 6: they call themselves independence, but they vote for Republicans for
Speaker 6: Senate and House and at the state level. So that's
Speaker 6: the bubble of people who formerly known as Republicans that
Speaker 6: Biden wants to remind that they rejected Trump a couple
Speaker 6: of times. Already our Trump want to be is twenty
Speaker 6: twenty two, and therefore if they should come back to him.
Speaker 6: And you know, this is such a precarious election in
Speaker 6: the sense that really we don't know what it will
Speaker 6: actually hinge on in October November. Right, the economy is
Speaker 6: generally very good, except for inflation, but very good, and
Speaker 6: we don't see a lot of indicators that's going to
Speaker 6: change a lot between now and November, at least with
Speaker 6: the unemployment. Right, So what is going to be the
Speaker 6: issue or is there even a single issue? Is it
Speaker 6: just now multiple issues to different groups of voters.
Speaker 2: Can you imagine Nicky Haley falls on a sword ye
Speaker 2: decides she's going to vote for Trump. But can you imagine,
Speaker 2: Professor Schiller, that the people that support Nicky Hayley will
Speaker 2: then go over and support President Biden?
Speaker 3: Can you make that leap?
Speaker 6: It all depends on how this summer unfolds with Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: I mean, Donald Trump has been relatively restrained, either either
Speaker 6: by court order or because his campaign is doing a
Speaker 6: good job of that. But you can imagine that's certainly
Speaker 6: at the conven and afterwards he's going to let loose
Speaker 6: because he's already won the nomination again and he thinks
Speaker 6: he's going to win. He's up in the polls. He's
Speaker 6: not going to be controllable. And the question is how
Speaker 6: bad does that get and what kind of vision does
Speaker 6: that present for the future for anybody who didn't vote
Speaker 6: for him before? I mean, do you really want him back?
Speaker 6: So to me, they're still unknown. I think they're going
Speaker 6: to be the undecided in the polling in October November,
Speaker 6: and it's undecided about whether they're going to vote, not
Speaker 6: who they're going to vote for. They're not going to
Speaker 6: vote for Trump. They're not going back to Trump. So
Speaker 6: that's the thing for Biden. But again, things like forgiving
Speaker 6: more student loans when there are student protests is bad politics.
Speaker 6: That's just bad politics. But Biden has not seemed to
Speaker 6: care about that much in the last couple of years.
Speaker 6: He just does what he thinks is the right thing
Speaker 6: to do.
Speaker 5: So, Wendy Hear, here's a question. It's just a really
Speaker 5: broad question. Where are the pre twenty fifteen I'm thinking
Speaker 5: the day before former President Trump came down the escalator
Speaker 5: at Trump Play, is it? Where is that Republican Party today?
Speaker 6: I think as a party. That party is gone. That
Speaker 6: party is erased as a sort of functioning, you know,
Speaker 6: powerful party. It doesn't dictate policy at the state level
Speaker 6: anymore in state legislatures, it doesn't control the House of
Speaker 6: Representatives anymore. There are a few holdouts in the Senate,
Speaker 6: but you can hear the voices of the most conservative
Speaker 6: senators in Bolden. Rick Scott just announced senator from Florida
Speaker 6: who's running for reelection. He must be quite confident that
Speaker 6: he's going to win that race, that he's going to
Speaker 6: put in for a Senate majority leader against John Cornyn
Speaker 6: and John Thune. No, not are not liberal, but they
Speaker 6: are considered more mainstream established a Republican. But he's going
Speaker 6: to run as kind of a Trump guy. And you
Speaker 6: can see how the Trump wing of the party is
Speaker 6: taking over all of the mechanisms of government. And when
Speaker 6: parties cease to control government, they cease to be able
Speaker 6: to you know, function and deliver for their constituents. So
Speaker 6: that wing of the party functionally is dying. It's not dead.
Speaker 6: So that's the big question mark whether it happened, you know,
Speaker 6: So that it's the thing that Republicans have to ask
Speaker 6: themselves if Trump wins again, it's the nail in the
Speaker 6: coffin for the establishment Republican Party. And that's just a fact.
Speaker 6: So how do they how weil are they to that
Speaker 6: version of the party? And I don't think they even
Speaker 6: know the answer that question.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 5: So for former President Trump, it doesn't seem like any
Speaker 5: of his legal issues, including the case in New York
Speaker 5: City at the moment, has there any real impact on
Speaker 5: his political standing. It's just shocking to me. But is
Speaker 5: that kind of where we are?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, even after January sixth, I mean,
Speaker 6: his own party sort of got mad at him for
Speaker 6: two weeks and then they all went tomorrow Largo and
Speaker 6: many of them, Kevin McCarthy included, to say, okay, we
Speaker 6: forgive you. And now they're showing up in New York
Speaker 6: to say we're standing by you. I mean, it's a
Speaker 6: new age of politics where there doesn't seem to be
Speaker 6: a limit on what a politician can do without penalty
Speaker 6: in the polls at least. But remember Donald Trump lost
Speaker 6: the election in twenty twenty, and his surrogates lost the
Speaker 6: election in twenty twenty, and we're forgetting that history. So
Speaker 6: you know, the idea that he's going to win again
Speaker 6: easily or his surrogates are going to win again easily.
Speaker 6: That defies the last couple of years of history in
Speaker 6: terms of our elections.
Speaker 2: Why can't we have an election length like the British
Speaker 2: professor Schiller. There's got to be some thesis at Brown
Speaker 2: University over how do we take a three year extravaganza
Speaker 2: and dash it down to six seven, eight weeks?
Speaker 3: How do we do that?
Speaker 6: Well? So the reason I think you probably already know
Speaker 6: the answer. I think it's rhetorical, is that the development
Speaker 6: of mass based political parties, starting with Andrew Jackson, but
Speaker 6: going all the way and then have parties controlling government.
Speaker 6: As government gets bigger, there's more to control, more to
Speaker 6: give out to your loyal, loyal people. So parties become
Speaker 6: a business and organizations and primaries are good for the
Speaker 6: business because then people stay in the organization. Parties, you know,
Speaker 6: parties stay, Oh you lost control, but they control the primaries.
Speaker 6: So it builds up the party to have the primary system.
Speaker 6: And that's why we have such a long, long campaign
Speaker 6: with Martin van Buren.
Speaker 3: Ran today, would he be a Republican or a Democrat?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, it's funny because in those days they
Speaker 6: were Democrat Republicans. So it's very confusing. But you know,
Speaker 6: in the meantime, let's look at the signals that we're
Speaker 6: getting from these the state Senate races, in other words,
Speaker 6: that US Senate races in the swing states. Watch those
Speaker 6: and watch the poll numbers over the summer, and see
Speaker 6: if those Democrats are holding on. And if they're holding on,
Speaker 6: there's more hope for Buddy.
Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller of Brown University. Truly one of our definitive
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